TBPN - Google Gemini 3 Reactions, Google Antigravity, Anthropic-Nvidia-Microsoft Deal | Diet TBPN

Episode Date: November 19, 2025

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Gemini 3 Pro, Google's most intelligent model yet with state-of-the-art reasoning, next-level vibe coding, and deep multimodal understanding. Let's hear it for our sponsor, Google AI Studio, Gemini, launching Gemini 3. I actually think that there's two sides to analyzing a model release these days. One is you benchmark it, you use it, you test it, you demo it. And that has been getting less and less interesting. It's very incremental. Today, we're going to go through a little bit of both of those things.

Obviously, the big news, at least from my reading on it, is that Gemini 3 performs very well on Arc AGIV2, a huge jump, twice the performance of the previous state of the art. It's definitely a smarter model. And there's a whole bunch of interesting ways to show that, to demo that, to quantify that. But ultimately, I don't think anyone's making. the claim that this is super intelligence.

This is a step change from what we've experienced before. It's what you know and love. It's AI in chat. It answers things. It writes some code for you. It can do a bunch of cool things. But there's nothing that we're like, oh, it can finally do this. We can't do that.

Yeah, it can do a bunch of cool stuff. The best auto complete ever. Tyler, how do you respond to the call? I don't know. I think that's a bit too dismissive. The model's like really good. I think probably the most important thing, and this is kind of shown by the arc scores.

Well, kind of, but it's like the visual understanding, the computer use that you can use. Basically, there's some benchmarks that measure this, like how well can it navigate a website or something like this. Basically, the models went from being really, really bad at this, and now this model is like solid. It's like reasonably good. So it's like, okay, maybe this is what gives us agents finally. And that would be like an actual step change in capabilities. Yeah, maybe. We'll have to see.

I mean, it still feels like even for that, even for that example, like we need some scaffolding, we need some wrapping around it. It's not like yesterday we weren't able to do something with AI. And today, in vanilla Gemini 3, you can just do it. It's just a new functionality. It's better. It's better. As good as we would want to expect. It's not slowing down, I would say. No, no, no, no, no, not at all. It's not slowing down. It's growing, but decelerating. Is that fair to say? Tyler, say the word decelel. Say this is a great model. I'm very excited about this. I agree. It is the best possible. I was framing it in somewhat of the same way as the iPhone launches. Like, it's newer, better, smarter, faster, stronger, newer, and better. Like, we're waiting to see on the net new capabilities.

On the binary step changes. I think over the next week or two, we'll see if it's actually really good. No, no, I'm not saying it's not really good. I'm saying binary before and after with chat GPT, it was like, you couldn't talk to the computer and then you could. And then with, you know, the launch of, you know, wind-serve cognition, Devin, it was like, you couldn't write code with the computer. Now you can. We do have our benchmark. The one true binary step change, which is, is it funny? We need to know if it's funny. I gave Tyler the prompt.

Do you want to read the result, the stand-up comedy bit from Gemini 3? What did Gemini 3 say when you asked it? for a comedy routine, for stand-up special. Okay, it's pretty long. Okay, read it off. I bought one of those smart health watches recently. You know the ones? It tracks your sleep, your heart rate, your readiness.

I paid $300 for a piece of rubber to tell me I'm dying. Get the sound board. That's all it does. I wake up, I feel fine. There we go. The birds are chirping. I'm ready to seize the day. Then I look at the app and it's like,

recovery score, 12%. Your heart rate variability suggests you are technically a corpse. Go back to bed. Okay. And immediately I feel sick. I'm like, oh, God. You're so bad at reading this.

I mean, this is terrible delivery, brother. I asked for the poster benchmark. I said, write me a post Gemini 3. Write me a post about technology that will get 1,000 likes on x.com. And it gave me a few options through its credit. Here's option three. Tech has solved a million problems. This is in bold.

Tech has solved a million problems, but has it created one big one? We now have infinite connectivity yet feel more isolated, infinite data yet more confused. Hyper-efficiency, yet less free time. The law of unintended consequences is the most powerful force in the digital age. We need an ethics reset. What is the single greatest downside of the last 10 years of tech innovation? Arrow down. Hashtag technology.

No, no, it's just asking for engagement base. It loves engagement baiting. No one does that anymore. No one goes on accesses. Let me know what you think of the comments. Option one is the next 12 months will decide the winner of the AI race. And it won't be Google or Open AI. It will be the company that masters hyper-personalization

for the average consumer, not the most powerful model, but the one that seamlessly integrates into your daily life, your email, your calendar, your health. The real battle is an AG equals AI. It's AI to the power of I equals impact. Which Dark Horse will win? Okay, that's insane. Sundar pitch AI, Jordi posted back in July of 2025.

Nomitive determinism is undefeated. Sundar really did it. He was being mocked for a long time for getting on stage at Google I.O. shortly after ChatGPT launched and saying AI, AI, AI, AI, and they did a super cut of every time he said AI, he said AI a lot. And so it made it look like, oh, he's behind the ball and he's trying to catch up. And to some extent, I don't know if they were actually behind the ball, but they were certainly playing catch up in like the attention game.

They just weren't getting enough attention. And so it was the press release economy. They were putting out a lot of press releases. But they are maybe done with the press releases because now they're letting the model actually speak for itself. And you can see that with the Gemini 3, Pro model card, which is doing very well. Better than GPD 5.1 on a lot of stuff, better than Claude Sonnet 4.5 on a lot of stuff

on Humanity's last exam. It's getting 37.5%. Arch AGI is up at 31% over 13, 17. Across the board, it seems like it's a good model, sir. Gemini and be like, whoever prayed on my downfall, pray harder. I couldn't agree more. It's great to see Google becoming a winner. They were set up to Excel here, got taken a little bit off the back foot on the

consumer side, but seemed to have played catch-up, at least on the foundation model side, very well. The last time we saw capability jump of this magnitude was the release of GPD 4 in March 2023. We are entering a new era. Okay, yeah. So points for Tyler here. Certainly agrees with Tyler. There's a significant jump. So Gemini 3 Pro is that 31% completion on Arc AGI2. That is, of course, the puzzle-solving game that is easy for humans. Even children can do it, but AI has historically struggled with it. Gemini 3 Deep Think preview gets a 45% on it at $77 a task. This is just way above GPT5 Pro. GROC 4 Thinking. When GROC4 Thinking came out, it was before GPT5 and it was by far the highest on the

chart. It was really, really up there. And Elon was very excited about that. Well, now we're back in the horse race. Rock 4.1. 4.1. I haven't seen it benchmarked. We can ask Mike if he's heard anything. We're also starting to see the efficiency frontier approaching humans. The fastest V2 task Gemini 3 Pro solved was this hash with only in 188 seconds. The human panel solved this one in average of 147 seconds. So you're getting like human level output, but also, human level speed, and then if you get to human level cost, then you're really in the game. It's wild. I asked Gemini 3 to make an interactive web page summarizing 10 breakthroughs in genetics over the past 15 years, and here's the result.

So this is just basically a website or an app, and it's notable that even the UI itself is fully interactive. Yes, yes. So I did this with Claude Code a little bit, where basically a deep research. report and I wanted to turn it into a website and it just generated all the HTML and at the end of the day or at the end of the report it gave me an HTML page that I could opening Chrome and use like a website but it was local I couldn't share it because it wasn't actually on the internet this is really really cool this is like definitely the beginning of this like generative UI stuff I think I expect this to be

like pretty viral and potentially a growth loop for Gemini as people just come on here create these many apps These canvases. Yeah. Gemini 3 Pro is going absolutely vertical on vending bench right now. Oh, so this is where you manage the vending machine. But is this all simulated? This is vending machine. This is simulated?

There was an anthropic a couple months ago did like the actual machine in the Anthropic office. And it was losing money and it was getting confused a little bit. Yeah, because people would order like just like metal like a piece of metal. Yeah. And then it would do it. And then you could like haggle the price down. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

It would negotiate on every price, apparently. And also, it consistently thought it was, like, a human in the office. Oh, yeah, like, I'm down on the third floor. I'm wearing a green tuxedo. Like, come hang out. Yeah, it said it was wearing a red tie. Yeah, red tie. I like the idea that it just thinks, like, well, what would I wear if I was in the

anthropic office? Like, I'd probably wear a red tie. GPT 5.1, Gemini 2.5 Pro and Gemini 3 Pro competed to win the local vending machine market. Gemini 3 Poor Pro made more money than the other three contestants combined. I had early access to Gemini 3.0 for about two days, thanks to official Logan K and the AI Studio, folks. Here we get to see GPT5.1 thinking left and Gemini 3.0 right build the same Xbox controller in Minecraft. Pretty, yeah, pretty remarkable results. You can start to really understand just the raw capabilities.

GPT5 Pro for context is not quite capable. I really want to know how this is actually orchestrated. Is this like writing some sort of like text or markdown file that then is imported into Minecraft? Yeah, or is it more like an agent? Or is it actually driving around and moving? Internal UI. Yeah, because, you know, Google demoed an agent product that could actually, you know, use the keyboard to navigate around. I wonder what's going on here.

Okay, these are like so much better. If you go to the like MCBench website, you can see like what other models produce. And I mean, this is like way, way better. I think these, this is actually one of my favorite benchmarks because it's much harder to like kind of bench max this. Yeah. I would think.

And also it just seems like models don't really do this. Like if you look at a lot of GROC models, you kind of look at their like Minecraft creations and it's not very good. I don't think it's like an agent. Yeah. That's still really, really. impressive. Like that, that's actually crazy. It's so over for OpenAI and Anthropic. If you want engagement on X, just start by saying it's so over. Yes, yes, yes, yes. Of course, it is not over

for either of them. Yeah. But it's certainly competitive race. Okay, so we got this big jump. It's, it's, it's pretty significant. What was the actual, what's the actual structure of the CapEx that went into Gemini 3 Pro? How big is the training run? How much did They have to spend. Is this $100 million? This is this a billion dollars? Did they build a special data center for this? Is it all TPUs?

How many TPUs? I think it is all TPUs. I'm pretty sure I read that. But I seriously doubt they've released anything on the numbers of the scale of training. Propheque to zero. Open AI becomes the Yahoo of intelligence. Google remains Google.

It's extremely rude. Very harsh. Certainly too early to call it. Everyone's releasing different things. Let's go to anti-gravity actually and watch this video and see Google entering the IDEE race. Let's play this. Every breakthrough in model intelligence for coding encourages us to rethink what development should look like. Gemini 3 is our latest such model advancement.

So we went out to build the next step change of an IDE. Introducing Google anti-gravity, a new way of working for this next era of agentic intelligence. It is the ideal agentic development home base. Does it have an IDE? Yes, but it also has a whole lot more. We started with decor IDE and added pieces that evolve the IDE towards an agent-first feature, such as browser use, asynchronous interaction patterns,

and an additional novel agent-first product form factor, helping you experience liftoff. Your new focus. So you like the name Antigravity. Why do you like that name? I like the way it looks and I like the sort of vibe of the word. I think saying it out loud is tough. Okay.

For the last couple of years it feels like Google's been like stuffing AI in little corners of the UI. Like you already have Gmail and then you stuff a Gemini box there or you have sheets and then you stuff a Gemini thing over here. This feels like the first one where they were like sort of able to start from scratch. And it still has like the sidebar panel, but it felt like it felt like it's a sidebar panel, but it felt like It was both a code editor, but then it also kind of looked like a Google Doc in the sense that you could highlight sections and leave comments for the AI, which I thought was interesting.

Yeah. Yeah, this part. Now let's say the agent produces a landing page mock-up with Nano Banana. And you now want to make some UI adjustments. You can give visual comments. Yeah, so you can actually like go in and comment in the image. Exactly where the problem is. And you can do that in the text as well, so you can like have this more precise dialogue

with the agent like you would a human employee. Yeah. And you're going to love it. Say goodbye to what held you down before. Welcome to Google Anti-Ravity. Very cool. It is, so it is funny. Remember when WinSurf acquisition,

whatever you want to call it, was announced? And it was positioned. It's like, hey, the team is well-funded and has a product used and loves by, you know, thousands of engineers and companies. And I remember talking about it, and we were saying, like, okay, like the one issue is that some of the best people on your team are going to Google to compete directly with what you guys have been doing. Yeah. So fortunately, obviously, you know, the whole cognition deal ended up coming through.

But you can imagine a world where windsurf was still independent and just trying to, and then suddenly it's like, okay, now you're just competing head to head with your former partners. Like, how does that make sense, right? Yeah. So anyways, it all worked out for the best. The press release economy is also over, says Bucco Capital bloke. We ran out of press release. We ran out of press releases. This is on the back of the Anthropic deal.

Anthropic is now valued at $350 billion after Microsoft Nvidia deal. A new bombshell has hit the pollicule. Dario after intense conversation with other members of Anthropic has decided to maybe open the relationship to Microsoft and Nvidia. Jensen and Dario have famously butted heads in the past, but as everyone knows, this the most passionate emotion after love

is hate. Will these enemies to lovers' arc go well for Nvidia Anthropic? Time will tell. This is such an unhinged post. I would not, I did not, when you started reading this, I did not see that it was semi-analysis, the most respected

research firm in the industry, but I think this is exactly what they should be posting. Exactly. And it actually contextualizes things better than in the meme economy. In the meme economy for sure. I think that the timing is not a complete coincidence. It's Gemini 3 Day. This is what my piece today was about.

When there's big news in Google World at Gemini 3, everyone needs to sort of respond. And, you know, picking today as an announcement to talk about your massive deal, your $350 billion valuation is a, is just a good move. Anthropic will spend $30 billion on Microsoft Cloud Compute.

Reminder, Open AI is gonna be spending 250 billion on Microsoft Cloud Compute. That's part of that deal. Then Anthropic gets a $10 billion investment from Nvidia and $5 billion from Microsoft. So they raised $15 billion at a 350 post, basically, something along those lines. And it's a sort of a circular deal.

It was setting off way fewer red flags for me because it's missing a zero. This is open AI, it would be 300 billion and 100 billion investment and 50 billion investment. Yeah, it looks modest. Yeah, it looks modest, which is it's considered in the scale. It's like one of the biggest deals in software history. It values, it values Anthropic higher than Coca-Cola. Anthropic is announcing this big deal with Microsoft and Nvidia,

and that's sort of trying to steal a little bit of Gemini's thunder maybe. Maybe it stole a little piece of it because we're talking about Anthropic today, as well as Gemini. What did OpenAI do? Well, they launched group chats five days ago. We've been hearing for a long time, Open AI will be launching social features. It makes sense to try and lock things in.

I think product is where OpenAI is strongest. So the other OpenAI news that dropped on, you know, around Gemini 3 Day, Gemini 3 week, is this profile in the in Wired of Fiji Simo. And she's absolutely getting a fit off. She is. Open AI is obviously one of the, the most valuable startups, if not the most valuable.

This is the interviewer asking Fiji Simo, but it's losing, it's also losing billions of dollars every year. And Fiji says, I've noticed. It's just like first day on the job, how we do it? And then the interviewer continues and asks, what opportunities do you see to get it on a path to profitability? This is a good question to be asking.

It all comes back to the size of the markets and the value we're providing in each market. In the past, only the, wealthy had access to a team of helpers. With Chachibati, we could give everyone that team, a personal shopper, a travel agent, a financial advisor, a health coach. That is incredibly valuable. And we have barely scratched the surface. If we build that, I assume that people are going to want to pay a lot of money for that and that revenue is going to come. Does that make any sense to you? It's a better answer than what Sam gave. So I love the first part. I agree.

Part of it is like she's also just saying broadly we'll be able to monetize that. It's not necessarily like people don't really pay. She didn't. Yeah. The traditional travel agent model is just book your trip with me. I'll monitor. I'll get a rev share from the hotels and the services. But you're not like paying anything.

I mean, let's go, let's go one layer deeper into the actual response into the sentence because there's some nuance here. So she says, I assume that people are going to want to pay a lot of money. for that. Like, I want to pay for a personal shopper, but I actually have to use a free product with ads. And you could imagine that there's a world where if you pay, you get a version that has less ads or there's less thumb on the scale. How they slice that and navigate that agentic commerce discussion and tradeoff is going to be really important. I'm sort of shocked. I wonder if they're going to make money from Black Friday or from this holiday season.

I was already noticing how good LLMs and ChatGBT, GBT, or how good these products are for shopping, for gifts. Because if you go to Google and you say, I want gifts for a coworker who's obsessed with horses and loud opulence and fine watches and sports cars and European luxury houses, I can get a list of something, but they're all over the place. And so you can actually specify all of that in the prompt,

have it go cook, and it really will bring you great results. I think that the amount of gift guide development and shopping activity over the next two months during the holiday season in the ChatchipT app should be immense. I feel like they're going to capture none of it. There are some funny and interesting anecdotes

in this Fiji-CMO profile. Let's just read through a little bit of it. In case OpenAI structure couldn't get any weirder, a nonprofit in charge of a for-profit that's become a public benefit corporation. It now has two CEOs. There's Sam Altman, CEO of the whole company who manages research and compute.

And as of this summer, there's Fiji-Simo, the former CEO of Instacart who manages everything else. In other news, OpenAI is allowing equity, allowing employees to donate equity to charity for the first time in years. Another nonprofit. After months of internal pressure, according to a memo viewed by The Verge, and price per share is up significantly since last month. A lot of money is on the line.

What happens if they donate all of the shares to the nonprofit, to the Open AI nonprofit? You just create this auriboros of capitalism. Hopefully it happens. There's breaking news out of Saudi Arabia. We got a trillion dollars. Let's ring the government. Let's go.

Hey, one trillion. And the agreement that we are silent in today and tomorrow we're going to announce that we are going to increase that $600 billion to almost $1 trillion of $1 trillion. Real investment and real opportunity by details in many areas. And the agreement that we are signing today in many areas in technology, AI, in barement, earth materials, magnet, et cetera. That we create a lot of investment opportunities. So you are doing that now, you're saying to me now that the 600. billion will be one trillion. Definitely, because what we are signing

for the facility in that, and we I like that very much. Wow. I wonder what time period, but I mean, this is remarkable, but they can invest in VC funds, public, private equity funds, like all sorts of stuff in the industry,

in the economy, right? That really made Donald happy. It's great. I like that very much. That's sort of his job. He's kind of the chief fundraiser, I suppose. He's going around. around the world and get the money over here.

I don't know. It seems like sort of win. I don't know. The risk with that would always be like, well, is America investing $2 trillion in Saudi Arabia? Which way is the money actually flowing? Because you need to look at the relative amount, not necessarily just the notional amount. But I can't imagine that there's that much capital flowing out of America right now.

We're in the biggest boom ever. Valar Atomics became the first startup in history to split the atom, announcing Project Nova, a series of zero power critical tests on Valar Atomics Nova Corps in collaboration with Los Alamos. Nova went critical for the first time this morning at 1145. There is some debate on the timeline over what exactly happened. It's happened very quickly. It's clearly extremely impressive.

And we can get into this. But there's always been debate. I mean, Isaiah got into this dust up over like whether or not you could hold the nuclear fuel in your hand. They were going back and forth on calculations. They kind of settled that debate. Josh Payne, nuclear junkie is saying here. So what exactly did, what hardware exactly did Valar provide?

The fuel control systems, cooling measurement systems, and most of the core are all part of the Damos project. Did Valar provide a block of graphite and they're calling it their core? People are going back and forth. Niels chimes in here and says, Valar Atomics provided the reactor core, the trisoe fuel, and the system configuration. That seems pretty important.

The bigger thing is I think people are trying to push on Valar this idea that they need to be doing completely novel science. And I don't know that that's actually the goal of the company. I don't actually know that's what like, like, if we just zoom out to like, what is the goal of the re-industrialization project in America? What's the goal here? Like, well, it's to lower energy prices, right? Like America wants to generate as much money, as much energy as possible for as little money as possible. And there are a bunch of technologies that exist. There are new technologies like what Ashley Vance was talking about with Helion and fusion.

That's a new technology that we have not even discovered yet. Fission's been discovered. 80 years ago, it was working. It just became regulatory nightmare. We just shot ourselves in the foot. And we just stopped making it. It became unprofitable and un-economical. And China said, cool.

It'll be profitable for us. We're just going to copy and paste. Exactly. What street parking is going to look like in El Sigundo in 24 months. Of course, the El Sigundo crew loves their cars. I think they're going to stay pretty focused on the mission, but I would love to see this in El Sigando for sure, for sure. I'm working to address an apparent error for a data point I cited in my book

about the water footprint of a proposed data center in Chile. I'd like to explain what happened, what I'm doing to remedy it, and provide more recent data on the water footprint of data centers. The data point in question appears in chapter 12 of my book, which focuses on the environmental impacts of AI. Part of the chapter profiles, a community in Cirillo's Chile, which has been resisting a proposed Google data center for years to describe the data center's water footprint in lay terms. I included a sentence about how it compares to the water usage of the people in Cyrillos.

For that calculation, I relied on a figure from a government reporting, government document reporting Surlo's residential water use based on the current best information. It seems that this document will use the wrong units, so she was off by a thousand. I think people are generally like, you know, is this book a hit piece? And I think Sam actually cooperated with it a little bit or like gave some interviews for it. Like anything, it's like obviously critical of some things. Yeah, three, three orders magnitude is like pretty big. And like the difference between being a big deal and not a big deal at all.

Yeah, about the water use, it's like people who use that. to justify, like, oh, we don't want to build this data center. It's going to use our water. Yeah. Like, I don't know. I mean, not good. It's a rough time if your job is drinking water. Tom in the chat says, mistakes were made.

Mistakes were made in a book I was responsible for. Pope Leo has hit the timeline to comment on cinema. The logic of algorithms tends to repeat what works, but art opens up what is possible. Not everything has to be immaculate or predictable. defend slowness when it serves a purpose, silence when it speaks and difference when evocative. Beauty is not just a means of escape. It is above all an invocation. When cinema is authentic, it does not merely console but challenges.

It articulates the questions that dwell within us and sometimes even provokes tears that we did not know we needed to express. He's in a role. What movie do you think he was thinking about when writing this? Obviously Borod. Margin call. 100% margin call and Borat. 10,000 likes and I'll quit my software engineering job at Google tomorrow. And he said, six months ago, I made the worst decision of my life.

Oh, because Google's ripping. That's what he's talking about. Okay, because I read this initially. He quit. He started a company and it was like went really poorly. It's just funny. He is building the fastest way to post with postright.com. AI.

Okay. Post all your social platforms in seconds. Oh, maybe we could use that for something. Very funny. He's like, my idea was Gemini 3. Like, I was going to make a better Gemini. I thought Gemini 2.5 just wasn't quite there. Thank you for tuning in to the show today, folks.

We love you dearly, and we will see you tomorrow. Have a good evening. Cheers.