TBPN - H200s in China, Apple Blocks Vibe Coding, Peptide Debates | Andy Fang, Matt Jayson, Dr. Cameron Sepah, Chris Gadek, Chris Hladczuk, Georgios Konstantopoulos, Matt Huang

Episode Date: March 18, 2026

Sign up for TBPN’s daily newsletter at TBPN.com(05:54) - H200s Are Going to China (18:27) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (27:33) - Apple Cracks Down on Vibe Coding Apps (37:36) - Peptide Deba...te (46:17) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (54:50) - Private Credit Meets the AI Shift (01:05:44) - Andy Fang, co-founder and head of consumer engineering at DoorDash, discusses the company's recent acquisition of Metis, an applied AI research lab, to enhance AI integration into their services. He highlights the potential of AI to improve customer experiences by addressing decision paralysis through agentic commerce, and to assist restaurants in optimizing operations, such as pricing and promotions. Fang also emphasizes the importance of creating seamless, beneficial AI-driven experiences without overtly branding them as AI features. (01:25:05) - Matt Jayson, founder and CEO of Multiply, discusses his company's innovative approach as the first hybrid AI media agency, combining AI agents with human expertise to create self-learning ads that adapt based on customer feedback. He highlights their recent emergence from stealth mode with a $9.5 million funding round and emphasizes the need for modernized advertising strategies in the B2B sector, noting that traditional ads become stale quickly. By integrating AI with human media buying, Multiply aims to revolutionize advertising effectiveness and efficiency. (01:34:12) - Dr. Cameron Sepah, a licensed clinical psychologist and former assistant clinical professor of psychiatry at UCSF School of Medicine, is the founder and CEO of Maximus, a company specializing in men's health and hormone optimization. In the conversation, he discusses the concept of performance medicine, emphasizing the use of FDA-approved treatments like testosterone, GLP-1 agonists, and growth hormone peptides to enhance health and performance. Dr. Sepah also highlights the importance of personalized medicine, advocating for tailored protocols that address individual health needs beyond traditional healthcare models. (02:06:19) - Chris Gadek, CEO of AdQuick, discusses how the company is revolutionizing out-of-home (OOH) advertising by integrating technology to streamline planning, buying, and measurement processes. He highlights AdQuick's recent partnership with OUTFRONT Media, a major player in the OOH space, to enhance campaign execution and measurement across various formats. Gadek also emphasizes the importance of proving the effectiveness of OOH advertising through advanced analytics and measurement tools. (02:17:05) - Chris Hladczuk, co-founder and CEO of Hanover Park, an AI-native fund administration platform, discusses how his company streamlines financial operations for investment firms by replacing manual processes—referred to as "human duct tape"—with AI-driven solutions. He highlights the platform's ability to provide real-time data integration, enabling faster decision-making and reducing reliance on traditional, labor-intensive methods. Additionally, Hladczuk emphasizes Hanover Park's commitment to becoming the default partner for fund CFOs seeking AI transformation, underscoring the company's rapid growth and focus on customer satisfaction. (02:30:07) - Georgios Konstantopoulos, Chief Technology Officer and General Partner at Paradigm, leads the engineering team at Tempo, a payments-focused blockchain project. In the conversation, he discusses Tempo's recent mainnet launch and the introduction of the Machine Payments Protocol (MPP), designed to enable agents to perform transactions seamlessly. He highlights Tempo's optimization for fast, low-latency payments and introduces features like Sessions and Access Keys to manage transaction scalability and security. (02:45:24) - Matt Huang, co-founder and Managing Partner at Paradigm, discusses the rapid development and launch of Tempo, a Layer 1 blockchain designed for stablecoin payments, highlighting the collaboration between Paradigm and Stripe to address existing infrastructure challenges. He emphasizes the importance of promoting stablecoin adoption beyond merely offering another blockchain, noting their potential to modernize the financial system by enabling instant, 24/7 payments. Huang also reflects on Paradigm's investment strategy, comparing early investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum to current considerations in the AI landscape, and underscores the firm's commitment to supporting frontier technologies. (03:01:19) - Pardoned Nikola's CEO Next Act (03:04:49) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions TBPN.com is made possible by:Ramp - https://Ramp.comAppLovin - https://axon.aiCisco - https://www.cisco.comCognition - https://cognition.aiConsole - https://console.comCrowdStrike - https://crowdstrike.comElevenLabs - https://elevenlabs.ioFigma - https://figma.comFin - https://fin.aiGemini - https://gemini.google.comGraphite - https://graphite.comGusto - https://gusto.com/tbpnKalshi - https://kalshi.comLabelbox - https://labelbox.comLambda - https://lambda.aiLinear - https://linear.appMongoDB - https://mongodb.comNYSE - https://nyse.comOkta - https://www.okta.comPhantom - https://phantom.com/cashPlaid - https://plaid.comPublic - https://public.comRailway - https://railway.comRestream - https://restream.ioSentry - https://sentry.ioShopify - https://shopify.com/tbpnTurbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.comVanta - https://vanta.comVibe - https://vibe.coFollow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Walker, TBPN. Today is Wednesday, March 18, 2026. We are live from the TBPN Ultrudeau. The Temple of Technology. The Forteous of Finance. Let me tell you about ramp.com. Time is money, save both. He's used corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place.
Starting point is 00:00:17 Let's also pull up the linear lineup. Of course, it's the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise works based on linear using agents. We have a great show lined up. We have Matt Wang from Paradigm joining at the end of the show. Cameron, from Max is coming in person. We got Andy Fang from DoorDash. Matt,
Starting point is 00:00:34 new acquisition. We got a we got a great lightning round. Chris from ad quick. Two Chris's. We're going back to back Chris's today. Anyway, thank you for tuning in. Thank you for watching TVPN. As always, the big news of the day, more news out of NVIDIA GTC, lots of NVIDIA announcements. The stock is up. It's a 4.44 trillion dollar company last time I checked. That is big. NVIDIA has been on absolute tear. And some really promising things with the GROC acquisition already, or like pseudo-acquisition, the deal, the GROC partnership. They're already starting to explain a little bit more about how those two technologies
Starting point is 00:01:15 fit together. And there's some good coverage and trajectory about that. But the big news out of Nvidia yesterday was that Nvidia says it's restarting production of AI chips for sale in China specifically. So Jensen Wong says the company's supply chain is fired up after months of mixed signals from the Chinese market. We've been tracking this for a long time. Of course, chips were banned first from sale for sale to China in 2022 by Joe Biden under the Chips Act. That also unlocked billions of dollars in incentives for American chip manufacturing.
Starting point is 00:01:50 We began following the Intel story. We began following the Huawei story. There were a number of different initiatives. and then the narrative flipped back and forth, back and forth on what are the risks and what are the costs and benefits of actually selling chips to China. Back in 2022, after the Chips Act, which if you want to read up more on it, we've interviewed Chris Miller, the author of Chip War. It's a great book. I highly recommend it. You should have him back on.
Starting point is 00:02:21 That'd be amazing. About that time. Yeah. Ben Thompson's also covered the story throughout. There's a whole bunch of good stuff in Cretcary on chips in China. And the calculus has always been pretty clear. Like on the first pass, the first order effects, AI is an important technology.
Starting point is 00:02:38 America wants an advantage in the AI race, the AI buildout. So less chips for China means more chips for America, stronger economic engine. And massive chip shortage right now. You see old chips being valued basically more than they were when they launch, which implies there's plenty of
Starting point is 00:02:54 demand in America. So you'd want to keep those here. And plenty of demand at TSM from American chip makers specifically. I mean, even Apple is sort of getting crowded down there on the two nanometer, which I think is better for phones than for GPUs, but they're, you know, they're grappling with what the compute boom, what the AI buildout boom will be for their business. But the second order effects are what are more complicated. So in November of 2022, I was writing about this and I said on a YouTube video, in the past, China's dependence on foreign technology companies has been seen as a key bargaining chip. Why would China invade Taiwan when they need to keep TSM's manufacturing facilities
Starting point is 00:03:39 online? Chip manufacturing is extremely precise. One of these factories isn't going to withstand a rocket hitting it. So if there is any sort of broad military action in Taiwan, TSM probably gets a little bit damaged. I mean, even the tiniest earthquake. Right. They have to track the weather. Yes. Outside of the facility.
Starting point is 00:03:58 Exactly. If the weather outside of the facilities is fluctuating at all. It can affect yield inside. Earthquakes, Taiwan is famous, or TSM is famous, where they don't even need apparently a, like a detection system or a push notification to their employees if there's an earthquake. If the employees sense that there's an earthquake, they just get up and go to the factory and start working on things.
Starting point is 00:04:18 It's not like they need to, like, oh, we need to email all the employees, the employees just know, because that's the level of sensitivity over the TSM fab. So if you want to keep TSM producing chips, you can't invade Taiwan. And so by banning the export of chips to China, the cost to China of a Taiwan invasion decreases. And so if China can't access TSM chips anyway, it's a lot less risky to go to war. And that was always the risk with hardcore chip bans that you'd create an increased risk of geopolitical. conflict. And in 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war was about six months old. Global conflicts have grown significantly since then. Obviously, we've been tracking the Iran war. And America's military is potentially stretched thin, so the risks of a Taiwan conflict are higher than ever. And so you add to the fact that everyone agrees that we will be in chip constrained, a chip shortage through at least
Starting point is 00:05:13 2030. And the need to keep TSM supplying chips to American companies is extremely important. It's always been difficult to parse the various arguments around selling chips to China because there's an insane amount of money at stake and many, many people who's basically their full-time job is to advocate for a particular position. I was talking to a friend who is interfaced with a lot of the different groups in Washington. And there are like huge think tanks, huge lobbying organizations for, on both sides, because there's so many different interests going on. Yeah, not to mention how much of everyone's retirement accounts, NVIDIA actually makes it. Holding up the world economy, right? That's the meme.
Starting point is 00:05:50 And that's certainly true. So there are good arguments on both sides. One that keeps getting trotted out is, you know, it's important to keep China dependent on the American AI stack. And it's reasonable. The better argument might just be dependent on a functional TSMFAB. But there is, there are benefits to the CUDA ecosystem and to the idea that whatever models get built there will be applicable here. We'll be able to transfer that research and development that happens over there very quickly. But the much more important thing is just that the more the economies are interlinked, the less likely there is a conflict.
Starting point is 00:06:31 So all of this underscores the importance of TSM, Arizona, Samsung, Intel broadly, as well as startup fab projects, like the TerraFab. And there's a whole bunch of other companies that are doing, that are at least talking about toolmaking, talking about getting a fab up and running. nothing that's really taken off. I mean, even Samsung is not fabbing any of the leading edge at this point. But, you know, there's incredible economic incentive, and people have known that this is an important kind of sort of cash cow business for a few years now at the very least.
Starting point is 00:07:10 And so there's certainly been a lot of incentive to put plans in motion that might play out before 2030, because there's such a shortage. And so in general, we're traveling this long and narrow road, but I'm coming around to the idea that selling some chips to China is the best possible move at this particular moment in time. It was easy to stick with, like, the first order, the first order logic of just we want the chips
Starting point is 00:07:38 because we can use them to power our economy, so we should have them. But going forward, it'll be really interesting to track, how China's indigenous indigionization project of their domestic supply chain evolves. They of course have- Yeah, my take has always been like even if they are getting chips It's not like the the party is gonna say actually the domestic our domestic supply chain is no longer important because we're getting a drip of H-200s yes so there's keep the they're still gonna keep the momentum that they have Just wouldn't be wouldn't be like them there's a lot of debate over that because momentum comes from scale you can take some of the wind out of the sales, but they can just spend more. You can slow the momentum, potentially.
Starting point is 00:08:23 That's the argument, is that by limiting demand, like, there's a local, local fab in China that just says, a chipmaker, that says, okay, well, you know, our demand is half as much, so we're going to, so, like, we can't afford to scale. Sure, we have the money, but we don't really need to deliver this because there's no buyer so you don't get the process level of like execution. You don't get the excellence that comes from actually needing to run the real business. It becomes more of like NASA than SpaceX. That's always the risk with like, you know, you're just throwing government money after it. Before we move back to the Wall Street Journal, let me tell you about Figma.
Starting point is 00:09:01 No matter where your idea starts, Figma Make, Claude Code, or Codex or Sketch, the Figma Canvas is where ideas take shape and products, ideas connect and products take shape, build in the right direction with Figma. And let me also tell you about public investing for those to take it seriously. Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service. So, Nvidia and the Trump administration have been involved in a complicated tango over the sales of its advanced artificial intelligence chips in China. Last April, the Commerce Department halted exports of the H20, a processor, Nvidia, designed explicitly for the China market. that was the Nerfed H-200 that was not supposed to be able to train as advanced of models,
Starting point is 00:09:45 but it was reported that the High Flyer team behind DeepSeek sort of figured out how to use those chips effectively. So there was a debate over is the H-20 actually just as useful as the H-200 or close to it or closer. Well, it's sort of a moot question now because H-200 is coming to China, which is the more advanced version, the not-nerved version. So the company's fortunes turned again in December when the U.S. said it would allow Nvidia to sell its H-200 processor, a chip that is a generation behind its most powerful series of GPUs.
Starting point is 00:10:18 So this is not the B-200, not the Blackwell. This is the hopper, but it's still very advanced. In China, as long as the company shared 25% of its sales with the U.S. government, so there's basically an export tariff. GPUs or graphics processing units are powerful chips used in training AI models. I think everyone knows this. In late January after Wang visited China officials, they're signaled they would approve H-200 sales as well. So there was a big debate over whether or not Beijing would block the imports of H-200s in order to stimulate the indigionization
Starting point is 00:10:51 of the domestic semiconductor supply chain. It seems like these will be going through and they will be purchased. Inspire local industry to grind harder. Basically. But you have a whole bunch of AI labs that are not in the fab industry, that are not involved in the verticalization process, and they just want to train great models because they have real businesses. Like they're running, they're running Alibaba or Bidu or any number of companies, and ByteDance wants good AI, and they want the best chips, and they're not really interested in getting into the supply chain at a deep level, at least in the short term.
Starting point is 00:11:28 So, but until Tuesday, the status of the B200 or the H200 in China was unclear in VDIA's most recent earnings report, the company said that although it had received approval to ship small amounts of H200 products to China, to date, we have not generated any revenue from those sales. Speaking at the company's GTC event, Tuesday, Wong said that in recent weeks, demand signals out of China have strengthened. We have been licensed for many customers in China. We've received purchase orders from many customers. and we're in the process of restarting our manufacturing. Our supply chain is getting fired up. Nvidia didn't comment on how much it expected to earn from H200 sales in China, but in the past, the company has said
Starting point is 00:12:09 that the Chinese market for its AI processors could be worth tens of billions of dollars a year. That makes perfect sense. And Christina over at CNBC got the original scoop near the bathroom line at GTC. Really? And Hwang happened to walk by security and asked if it answered her earlier question.
Starting point is 00:12:27 She said she had one more. You said you got China purchase orders. That means you got the green light from both sides. He said yes. Wow. That is a scoop athlete there. As a scoop athlete, you never know where your next scoop is going to come from. Seriously.
Starting point is 00:12:42 The sticking a microphone in someone's face as they're walking by really does make sense. With the camera flashes. Yes, yes. Jensen loves answering some questions on a microphone line. Chinese authorities approve. and it is H-200 chip sales, source says, and TOR taxes says, Siegeng has given up the situation with the H-200 sale in China summarized. And it's everyone jumping off, and Siegien-Ping saying, stop, domestic chips can work, maybe.
Starting point is 00:13:15 And everyone at the lab saying, must get CUDA. Dude, Nvidia is the future. Falling into the Mood. And they're falling into the Qaeda dependency mode. But we'll be interesting to see the evolution of the kudemote as other chips come online. I mean, we've seen TPU become functional. So there are questions about the kudemote long term, but it certainly seems like not a stopper to demand right now as labs place orders from NVIDIA. In other news, J.R. Tolkien used Gen Z. Brainrot slang over 70 years ago. That's how ahead.
Starting point is 00:13:57 No way. He was, and the quote, maggots jeered that and cigars, you're cooked. You're cooked. White skins will catch you and eat you. They're coming. Oh, he's like using it literally. Like you will be cooked by the, some, some, I don't know, villain, I suppose. A cry from the Grishnock showed that this was not mere jest. Horsemen riding very slowly had in This is really hard to read with these hyphens had indeed been sighted still far behind but gaining on the orcs So the orcs will cook you if you if you fall behind I suppose let me tell you about Octa
Starting point is 00:14:35 Octa helps you assign every AI agent a trust identity so you get the power of AI without the risk Secure every agent secure any agent with Octa and let me also tell you about Lambda Lambda is the super intelligence cloud building AI supercomputers for training and inference that scale for more GPU to hundreds of thousands. NVIDIA's biggest GTC announcement was a $20 billion bet on the same problem that Cerebris solved six years ago, says Andrew Feldman, the CEO and founder of Cerebris. Shots fired. Shots fired indeed.
Starting point is 00:15:04 He says, their next gen inference chip, not available yet, has 140 times less memory and less memory bandwidth than Cerebrus. To run a single 2 trillion parameter model, you need 2,000 groc chips. On Cerebrus, that's just over 20 wafers. Even paired with GPUs, GROX is out at 1,000 tokens per second. We run at thousands of tokens per second today and every day in production now. Why? When you connect 2,000 chips together, every internet connect has latency, every cable has overhead.
Starting point is 00:15:36 It doesn't matter what your memory bandwidth is on paper if you're bottlenecked by the wiring between the thousands of tiny chips. We solve this with wafer scale. One integrated system, little interconnect tax. Jensen told the world that fast inferences where the value is. He's right. It's why the world's leading AI companies and hyperscalers are choosing cerebrus. And so he puts up a little graphic of cerebrus versus Rubin plus Grok together on one system. And he is touting 90 times the amount of memory, 90 times the number of chips needed to run a 2 trillion parameter model.
Starting point is 00:16:12 I don't know how relevant, I don't know, is there, like, I wonder how this scales relative to, well, what if you're not running a $2 trillion, a $2 trillion parameter model? If you're, you know, buybacks lower, does this number get much more manageable? It does feel like he, you know, I mean, he's talking his book here. But I don't know, there would probably be some. But it's a big book. It is a big book. about it's a big chip. I don't know. I mean, have you, Tyler, have you ever run into any groc chips in the wild? I remember the original demo was inferencing Lama that was pretty fast and
Starting point is 00:16:53 everyone was like, yeah, this is amazing. I fit the API a few times. Okay. Um, because, yeah, you can like, there's just like consumer API where you can run like local smaller models. I had heard that you need a lot of chips, but that's not on its face like a huge, a huge problem necessarily. But it did seem like they had made some design decisions that maybe painted them into some particular corners, but those corners might be still economically advantageous in certain cases.
Starting point is 00:17:20 Yeah, I mean, it was definitely still slower than there was like the chat Jimmy thing, right? Because that's very much like, it's literally the model base. No one can be chat Jimmy. I mean, do we know that? That's what happening with the chatjimmy.a.i demo? because the GROC demo was very much like, we have a chip, here's a demo,
Starting point is 00:17:40 and it was actually 2,000 chips behind the scene, or a bunch of chips together behind the scenes. And so it's possible that the chatjimmy.a.i is doing something similar, where in order to speed things up... Sure, yeah. I just asked chat Jimmy, what's your favorite thing about Tyler Cosgrove from TVPN? Couldn't find any information about a person named Tyler. especially in the context of TBPN, which might refer to the Big Bang Theory, a popular TV show,
Starting point is 00:18:09 or maybe The Bachelor Paradise, a reality TV. TBP? TBP. The Bachelor Paradise Network. TBPN, okay. Yeah, that works. It's fast, though. It's fast, but it doesn't, I don't think Chatchemy.coma.ai has search.
Starting point is 00:18:26 Yeah. Like, I think it's all just, that would slow, trying to memorize things down. Let's play this video of I want to play this video of Jensen back in September 2009. Bubble Boy is having some criticism of GTC because apparently people are getting up and asking questions that are intended to pump bags. He says GTC has turned into a conference,
Starting point is 00:18:49 less about tech and innovation, and more about pumping your bags by getting a Jensen soundbite on some niche supply chain player. And so someone stood up and asked, Hey, why'd you invest four billion in these companies? I mean, that's a reason. Well, let's take a walk through history. I make content for investors so they can have the average American and people around the world.
Starting point is 00:19:13 Let's play this Jensen clip from 2009, September 2009. Jensen walks onto a small stage at the Fairmont Hotel in San Jose. About 1,500 people in the room. in computer science. If Dave Patterson and John Hessey and I know that Pat Hannerhand is sitting here watching you, you guys are going to go nuts. You need to put a mic on him.
Starting point is 00:19:36 This is called CEOMAM. This is not a computer architect now. This is called CEOM. That stage. So much smaller. Why could, it makes a lot of sense. This is an illustration of co-processing. Yeah, Carlos has no jacket.
Starting point is 00:19:52 No jacket. He is looking pretty jacked. He is looking pretty jacked. That's a good. in this presentation. So this is a simple map. The first, the first section on top is an example of a program that is parallel intensive. On the bottom is an example, the program. Which is these screen is doing, sequence. The way that I simply made it is the serial code part of the intense parallel intensive program
Starting point is 00:20:18 takes about one second to run. Whereas the parallel, parallelizable part of the code takes 1909 seconds to run, which makes sense. InVinia was a $7 billion company when this happened. Jensen kept saying the GPU wasn't just a gaming chip. It was a computing platform. Kept saying parallel processing would reshape every industry from medicine. They're like, yeah, yeah, yeah. Just put the video games in the bag.
Starting point is 00:20:47 Seriously, yeah. This was, yeah, before training neural networks. Wow. Pretty, pretty remarkable. 17,000 people are at GTC 2026 now, packing a hockey stadium, watching the same guy explain what comes next. Very, very interesting. Anyway, let me tell you about MongoDB. What's the only thing faster than the AI market?
Starting point is 00:21:10 Your business on MongoDB, don't just build AI, own the data platform that powers it. LinkedIn. Semi-analysis is over there. Slopping it up. They say LinkedIn is the only social platform where you can post a sloppy reaction poll, and it will get tons of engagement. We need to do this. Wow, they're just really throwing shots.
Starting point is 00:21:28 I give LinkedIn a chance. On a long enough timeline, they will all come to X. Yeah. It might take 30, 40 years. They'll make it over to the dive bar eventually. Maybe. And so.
Starting point is 00:21:44 I like that semi-analysis leans into the particular, like, rough edges of every platform. Like, I follow them on Instagram, and they actually post just, like, hilarious vibe reels and brainwrap. It's just like brain rot. Yeah. But often it's, it's, it's our clips.
Starting point is 00:21:57 I'm the only one that's liking them. I comment on a lot of the video. Yeah, I comment too. It's amazing. Like, they are not having broad success, but as far as, like, what Instagram deals like. Well, it's like, you know, the fine details of, you know, inference max or something. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then it's like Minecraft parkour over it.
Starting point is 00:22:14 Yeah. Yeah. I was in a few of them because they clipped our interview with Dylan Patel from Cisco AI Summit and put some videos on there. But there's hilarious one where it's like, it leads in with some, some text about like, like, you know, semi-conductor analyst, like, explains like this thing. And then there's just no audio while he's explaining it.
Starting point is 00:22:41 And then it just cuts to me and I'm like, hmm. And then it cuts back because we were editing the footage. And so I don't even know if it was like a mistake upload or it's like intentional, but it's all very, very funny. Apple cracks down on vibe coding apps. It's over for you, Tyler. Apple's moves come as vibe coding apps, help people create apps. Vibe coding apps, not vibecoded apps.
Starting point is 00:23:02 I know, it's over for him times two. No, because he doesn't vibe code on a phone. I'm kidding, I'm kidding, I'm kidding. He doesn't vibe code on a phone. I'm kidding. Apple's move comes as vibe coding apps, help people create apps for Apple devices, as well as web apps that aren't listed in the app store. Let's get into Stephanie and a phone.
Starting point is 00:23:21 errands reporting from the information. Apple has quietly prevented AI vibe coding apps such as Replit and Vibecode, which help people create games and other applications, from releasing updates to their mobile apps on the App Store unless they make modifications. Company confirmed it has told some app developers that the vibe coding capabilities violate longstanding App Store rules that say an app can't run code that changes the way it or other apps function. Apple's crackdown is happening at a time when vibe coding apps are emerging as a potential threat to the company by helping developers create web apps that aren't listed on its app store, a key source for revenue and profits for Apple.
Starting point is 00:23:56 Some of these vibe coding apps also helped developers create apps for Apple devices. That ability has likely contributed to the explosion of new apps launching on the app store in recent months, leading to a slowdown and approval process in some cases, developers say. An Apple spokesperson said the policy isn't specific to vibe coding apps. Following the information's questions about the standoffs, two of the people with knowledge of the situation said they believed Apple was on the verge of approving updates to Replit and Vibecode. Those app makers had agreed to either tweak their apps,
Starting point is 00:24:27 the way their apps showed customer previews of vibe-coded apps or get rid of certain vibe-coding capabilities entirely, like making apps for Apple devices. So it sounds like you're able to basically generate an app with Replit and then use a preview of it that maybe is functioning a little too much and effectively allowing Replit the app to do things that Apple didn't prove up. So, yeah,
Starting point is 00:24:53 the app never heard of vibe code. That's what I was looking up. The app store is always so fascinating. So if you search vibe code, you get an ad for Replit as the first response. Replit is number three in DevTools,
Starting point is 00:25:06 has 14,000 five-star reviews or reviews. Then Vibecode is listed as VibeCode website builder has 3.3K, pretty solid. It doesn't look like. it's charting, but it says learn how to vibe code, no experience needed, build websites
Starting point is 00:25:24 with professional designs, much more focused, I think, on static content. But there's been a number of these, like, website builders in the app store for a very long time. Then Replit ranks number two when you search for vibe code, because it says, Replet, Vibecode apps. Then you get sticky, an AI game maker, vibe coder, AI app creator, anything, the AI app builder, vibe code, Claude,
Starting point is 00:25:49 Codex, AI with 21 stars. There's a lot of people that are like just jumping in. There's one that's called Viplit's argument. Replitt's argument
Starting point is 00:25:58 is that they're helping the user generate an app that's just opening it up in a web view. So it's effectively just a mobile, an app built for mobile web and Apple's arguing
Starting point is 00:26:08 that no, that's effectively in the Replit app. Would you download this app already? I don't know. It's insane. Definitely vibe code at the App Store preview. It's like a graphic, like an AI image of the gigacad using the computer.
Starting point is 00:26:27 It's very funny. But man, there are so much IP infringement. Love a code. Not from lovable. Love a code. Build with vibe code. They're like, I wonder who they're trying to SEO against. Clearly there's a whole...
Starting point is 00:26:44 Who doesn't love a code? They're just trying to steal market share from, from incumbents that have name recognition. Do you remember that company that was doing vibe coding on the iPhone, and they would tap your phone and basically airdrop you the app? We talked to them at YC Demo Day last year. Oh, yeah, yeah. And there's a number of these companies that are trying to be like the AI game store,
Starting point is 00:27:10 sort of like the meta-simulator, like build a simulator and create a harness that's really good at vibe-coding again. game. It feels like a really valuable category if you can crack it, but you are going to be bumping up against the App Store all the time. You just have to compete with Sam Altman, Dario Amaday. Yeah, maybe. I do, I do wonder if there will be some sort of, or I mean, Roblox would be like the bigger one, maybe, or does it come out of Codex and ClaudeCode instead? Like, how do you, I wonder, I wonder what the barrier and how much distribution matters there for that, for that audience of people that want to, like, vibe-cote a game. Yeah, for gaming, I just think Roblox is just going to continue to be like Roblox is the Roblox of vibe coding.
Starting point is 00:27:58 And yet, we did not build our simulators in Roblox. Yeah, but they're not, like, massive multiplayer games. And we want people to be able to click a link and use it on their phone immediately. Like, we have a new simulator coming, by the way. We're addicted to simulation. We do love simulators. And this one, we're putting a little bit more effort into, and John's already addicted.
Starting point is 00:28:23 I would say this one is, like, just actually fun. Jeremy Gaffan simulator was more just, like, a different way to experience. It was educational. It was educational. Yeah. Yeah. It was for people that didn't just listen to his episode on a best sex.
Starting point is 00:28:36 They studied. Simulated it, yeah. But the actual interaction pattern of, like, guess and whatnot. Like, it was like, oh, this is novel. And then it was like, okay, this is a chore. And then it was like, okay, how many questions are there? 200?
Starting point is 00:28:52 There were, like, 60 questions or 48. That's a lot of questions. This new simulation, you're not going to be able to put it down. You're not going to be able to put it down. And it can effectively solve some industry-wide issues that are happening right now. Potentially. But we're going for impact. We're going for fun.
Starting point is 00:29:09 But, you know, Apple's had this longstanding policy around do not. Do not like they want to review the software and so you can't create an app that rewrites its software, but yeah, I wonder if Apple can do anything to create more like a peer, like a mini like sort of peer to peer experience because I remember I made, I was like learning how to build iOS apps when I was like a early teenager and I was so frustrated that I had built Pong, but I couldn't just like share it with my dad and say, like, hey, you can play this. Like, it just wasn't, it was.
Starting point is 00:29:46 But you can do test flight, right? Yeah, test flight. But test flight is still, like, it's certainly not designed for, it's not like a social peer-to-peer experience. Like, you still have to opt into the test flight network, do all these jumps. Like, it would be, and it, for some reason, it is weird that it kicks me out of the Apple ecosystem when I get a test flight.
Starting point is 00:30:08 Gold Rock says, High Key, Tyler could make better Siri and Replit with a thousand dollar budget. Better Siri in Replit? Two massive things. No, better Siri in Replit. Oh, better Siri. Oh, okay. Oh, yes.
Starting point is 00:30:21 For his last thousand dollars. In Replet. He's down to his last thousand bucks. That's a good challenge. Yeah, maybe that should be the new constraint on, like, like, hackathons. Instead of it, it's being like two days. It's like 20 grand is the max budget. And what can you do with that budget for the token, Allie?
Starting point is 00:30:43 20K is big budget for hackathon. Yeah. I mean, maybe the $200 plan or something, like exhaust it. You can't use multiple or something like that. The question is how much is Apple itself vibe coding? Because the software quality in the apps that I use. Mark German said they're using Cloud all the time, right? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:03 No, but to me, I'm saying so far, my experience recently, I've had an issue with the most important application on my phone, which is... You were complaining about the photos app? That was just poor design. The phone app has gotten a lot of... Yeah, John finally came around because the phone app is like... You're like, okay, I'm going to hit this button.
Starting point is 00:31:25 I might be calling this person out of the blue, even though I just want to... And I'm not sure what phone line I'm calling them on. I guess they're designing for a world where people only have one phone number, but I still have a lot of people, is this is blowing your mind Tyler but back in the day talking about like a home phone
Starting point is 00:31:42 back in the day people used to have multiple phone lines multiple phone numbers it's true I'm so unc but yes like a work phone like yeah like a work phone
Starting point is 00:31:52 I mean I was at FF I had two phones but um two phones that's right but a lot of people will have a home phone and a mobile phone and so that was the thing that you saved in your contact book a lot a long time and the problem with the new the new iOS phone app is that I've been calling randomly people on their home phone if I have it saved.
Starting point is 00:32:12 So I need to maybe go delete those numbers or put them in like a comment field so that it always calls their iPhone. Because I have moved to just calling people on their mobile phones. But anyway. Well, the good news, we have our first ever Apple employee coming on the show. Really? Oh, yes. We do. We do.
Starting point is 00:32:29 I'm very pleased with it. First ever. That's going to be exciting. Apple employee on the technology business programming network. That's not, I mean, current Apple employees. We've had X Apple. Yeah, yeah. But...
Starting point is 00:32:40 Live players. Before we move on, let me tell you about fin.a.I. The number one AI, the number one AI agent for customer service. If you want AI to handle your customer support, go to fin.a.i. And let me also tell you about console.
Starting point is 00:32:50 Console builds AI agents that automate 70% of ITHR and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password reset. So, Martin Scrolly. We got to go over to SF with Martin Screlly. Yeah, wait. Oh, okay.
Starting point is 00:33:02 This is part two. We're just jumping straight into the sample. We're going straight into part two. Okay, we're going straight into part two. He says, have you ever had the thing that you know a lot about become the current thing? That's happening now with peptides. Holy S-H-I-T. I don't know where to start.
Starting point is 00:33:16 Farmabasics, most people obsessed with peptides don't know a few things. Peptides as pharmaceuticals have been around since the 1950s. Overnight is just a small protein. Peptides have extremely short half-lives. What's that? What's that? 1950, that's like 10 minutes before 8 p.m. yesterday. Yes, correct.
Starting point is 00:33:39 Peptides have extremely short half-lives often on the order of seconds or minutes. So if you're saying you're interested in peptides, you're saying, I'm interested in biopharmaceuticals, but only drugs with very weak. Pharmacokinetics. Phracokinetics. Pharmacokinetics, that's a new word for me. Drugs of which peptides are a subgroup usually have a specified target. This is an electrostatic interaction, usually hydrogen bonding between the atoms of the drug and
Starting point is 00:34:02 the atoms of the target, typically, but far from always the receptor. If you can't tell me what the target is and how the drug is binding to it, you do not have a drug. You have delusion. Next, drugs are rigorously, tested rigorously, not only for safety reasons, just identifying the pharmacokinetics of a substance, how it travels in the body. Pharmacokinetics. Pharmacokinetics. It's a collab. Between pharma and kinetics. Exactly. Is arguably the most important starting point for any medicine. How is it metabolize? What is it what is its half-life without this basic information. You can't even begin to have a medicine.
Starting point is 00:34:36 You can start pharmacokinetics in animals and scale to humans, but you also need a therapeutic hypothesis. This is a thoroughly vetted biological idea, considered a priority as to why this medicine just might work. You very rarely discover these after the fact. Determining target engagement requires assays. Assays. This is going to be a rough one.
Starting point is 00:34:58 This is a rough one. Also, a priority. not a priori brutal abriorri assumptions exposed what ase was your drug tested in what did it show
Starting point is 00:35:12 direct target engagement is very important to falsify your biological hypothesis and you can continue John preclinical studies are so manufactured and fraudulent in today's day
Starting point is 00:35:23 that I wouldn't rely on them for biological hypotheses unless they are from an incredible lab we're done a priori etc. There we go. Clinical reality is far harsher. Without a double-blind placebo-controlled study,
Starting point is 00:35:36 there is often nothing to talk about if I hear, but I know dozens of people one more time, exclamation point, exclamation point, exclamation point. Screw the FDA in pharma. Really? Really? Coming from Martin Screlli? He is saying maybe don't screw the FDA in pharma.
Starting point is 00:35:51 When most of the SF and elsewhere crowd talks about peptides, they're not thinking, and this is going to be a hard one for me. octreotide. They're thinking some random stuff that's been thrown in animal models and is not FDA approved. Look, I'm not a softie. If there was a drug that could help me
Starting point is 00:36:10 or my family, I'd find a way to get it. But I'm also not stupid and spent 20 years looking at pharmaceuticals. Drug companies like to make money. Drug companies love looking at random molecules and putting them in clinical trials. There are thousands of biopharmaceutical companies that are publicly traded.
Starting point is 00:36:25 It is not hard to do a clinical trial from a university. If your drug has never been tested, there is a reason. The reason is not that you are a biopharmaceutical genius who has found something cool that everyone else missed. The FDA plays an important role. They make sure that whatever is on the label is actually in the drug. That's why prescriptions are important.
Starting point is 00:36:46 If I operated one of these research chemical shops, wildly illegal, I might add, I would just ship people aline or something. No one would have any idea that it wasn't BPC BS or whatever is. popular right now. The other side of the argument. But Martin, there has to be some unapproved drug out there that's useful to take. Yes, there are plenty. That is how I made a living, says Martin Screlly. But it is not for you, world traveler, to think about this. The things you know do not apply to pharmaceuticals. It's not that you're not smart. I'm sure you're smarter than I. It just takes practice and time to understand medicine. I believe some places will even require you to go
Starting point is 00:37:26 to school before you can decide who takes what drug. Just ask your doctor for medical advice. There's a reason you don't do surgery on yourself, fly a plane by yourself, etc. But Martin, I want to optimize my health. You could fly a 747. I could. That is the thing that I take. I agree. We don't have this. We don't need studies. I don't need a study. You could land the 747. If I needed to. If you, if it was asked of you. Yeah. 100%. But Martin, I want to optimize my health. No, Stop it. You're not sick. It's all nonsense. Leave medicine to physicians. You do not know what you are doing. Become a physician if you are that interested or spend a lot of time and money on biopharma. I have zero doubt you'll change your mind. There are no healthcare professionals that I know of who give an SHIT about these unapproved research chemicals.
Starting point is 00:38:14 But wah, there are actual people. There are actual dying people in the world. Duquesne muscular dystrophy, pecan, Lafora. Go fix those diseases. You'll make someone and their family a lot happier than LARPing that you know about medicine. This has to end. Interesting. Lots of debate. Yeah. So we are going to be hosting a debate.
Starting point is 00:38:36 Max Marcioni from Superpower will be coming on Monday at 12 to debate Martin Schrelli, the professor himself. So we're going to have a little debate. Superpower, I believe, cells these small proteins. and so it'll be an interesting conversation. So Monday at 12 Pacific, we can look forward to the great debate. So there's some conversation in the comments here. Michael Drugan says, when people talk about peptides,
Starting point is 00:39:12 they mostly mean things like Reda Trutide, Reda, which is in stage three clinical trials and looking extremely good, or BPC 157, which has tons of clinical and anecdotal evidence, Your critique is just self-aggrandizing fluff that falls apart when you apply it to the actual examples most people are using. So he's saying, look, most people aren't using this stuff that's like crazy far out there. They're just pulling forward things that are actively being worked on by the barme- Just another pod guys. It says, great post would be even better if you were in a flow state with a low dose of RETA.
Starting point is 00:39:49 Martin does not think, he doesn't like BPC 157. He says BPC 157 has no evidence, L.M. RETA.O. Red of Trutide is literally a biopharmaceutical from Eli Lilly pirating. Yeah, I mean, the concern with BPC 157 has always been that it could accelerate cancer growth. Yes. It stimulates growth. Yes. And so because it hasn't been studied well enough in humans, that is a risk that people, I think, should be aware of. How much of this is actually because of people's AGI timelines? Like, is there a real overlap in San Francisco between, like, yes, it might give me cancer in 20 years, but I think we will cure cancer in 10.
Starting point is 00:40:31 So if it makes me look good in the next five. But I think it's all about people just want some type of edge. They want to alter their states. It's somewhat basically human nature. Yeah. You can make the same argument for why you should wait, though, because then in 10 years, AGI will create, like, a super drug that would just instantly make me jacked. Oh.
Starting point is 00:40:50 Right? Okay. It's like you can do it either way. But no one has a decade to wait to be. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You want to be jacked now because all things equal. If the cancer risk of both scenarios is zero, you'd rather be jacked for 45 years as opposed to 40 years.
Starting point is 00:41:06 How much, how much would we have to pay you a day to not lift anything heavier than a single piece of paper? There's no amount of money. No money. That's right. Exactly. You can't wait 10 years. I'm ridiculous.
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Starting point is 00:41:35 Pretty iconic. Someone hire this kid. Robin Smith is sharing a poster. Warning. Warning. This man has been known to increase shareholder value with a QR code out to his link. I love this.
Starting point is 00:41:49 And his name is Lock. Lachlan von Eggman. That's a great name. And he's looking for a job as a summer 2026 electrical engineering intern. And I cannot recommend this gentleman enough. He has the correct mindset to go into a summer internship optimizing. Lockland, Von Egman, you should get a job as an electrical engineering intern. But if you don't, hit us up.
Starting point is 00:42:15 Yes, this is good marketing. Maybe we could hire men. Maybe we could hire this guy to work on. on our little electrical engineering problem back here. We got a lot of cords. It's just doing cable management. I think that he has bigger, bigger fish.
Starting point is 00:42:30 But whatever increases shareholders if you can solve, if you can handle cable management in the Ultradome, you can go far. Dependable thermonuclear work ethic. That's a good phrase. Thermonuclear work ethic.
Starting point is 00:42:43 He says he's smart with a capital S and he shares his email. So if you're looking for an electrical, electrical engineering intern this summer. Give Lockland a call or shoot him a call email. Let's head over to
Starting point is 00:42:56 Eric Suford. Okay. At mobile dev memo. He writes, private credit and the AI value reallocation. It starts with the quote, the essence of technology
Starting point is 00:43:07 is in a lofty sense ambiguous. Such ambiguity points to the mystery of all revealing, i.e. of truth. Martin Heidegger. I like it. Says a familiar intuition about the emergence of any new technological paradigm is that new methods of engaging with the world create uncertainty,
Starting point is 00:43:23 which is most easily interpreted through the lens of perceived negative outcomes. As private credit markets deteriorate, it's tempting to not only to blame AI for that decline, but also to extrapolate any dislocation to its logical extreme. That is, where rising default expectations among software companies are increasingly framed as early signs of a global systemic crisis. The most convenient analogy is the GFC. And yesterday carried no interest was giving a little bit of a doomer take around some of these software private equity deals. But he was not ringing alarm bells to the tune of the global financial crisis, correct? He was just saying that some of these deals are underwater,
Starting point is 00:44:06 some of those investment professionals might be needing to join different firms to find different opportunities, sort of the bull case for special situations, right? Yeah, yeah. Leaving the firm and be like, I didn't really work on it. I was an investor, but I didn't do much investing during 2018 to 2022.
Starting point is 00:44:23 I was mostly just sitting there saying, guys, like, I don't know if you should do this deal. I guess the beauty of private credit is that you have all these different funds that are being deployed, that have been deployed on different time horizons that have longer time, time horizons in general, right?
Starting point is 00:44:43 And so you can have basically like a rolling collapse versus like a versus like a run on the bank where you have like one day where everyone realizes it's kind of like the worm. Like you were doing the worm yesterday.
Starting point is 00:45:03 It's kind of like a like that. Yeah. That does not seem great. It's like a way. It's like a title. It's like a title. It's like a small. It's a small. It's a small. It's a it's small and it gets bigger and bigger and bigger. Right?
Starting point is 00:45:13 Yeah, so you're 6-8, so you're starting the worm. Okay. And you're really tall and you're kind of coming down, falling a tree. Fall like a tree. and you're steadily kind of like losing. I hope that's not where this goes. Let's continue. This framing is incomplete, says Eric Sufer in Mobile Dev Memo. It says it isolates the destructive effects of AI while ignoring the mechanisms through which those effects propagate and where value ultimately accrues. In this piece, he makes the case that contemporary economic conditions bear no resemblance to those leading up to the global financial crisis of 2008. I also argue, he says, that any weakening in various categories of the software landscape as a result of AI will not only mostly remain contained there, but will likely lead to economically expansionary, productivity gains and efficiencies that offset potentially disproportionately losses in private credit. That's very exciting.
Starting point is 00:46:10 The private credit market, he gives a little history on the private credit market. The private credit market has grown precipitously since the 2020-era COVID pandemic. In a note from the Federal Reserve, you're just like, there will be a rolling collapse, but also, I'm excited to grow. You've got to hit the air horn for growth. The authors, in a note from the Federal Reserve, the author's remark that private credit... It is funny that if you go back to our early bits, we were choking her about... praying for bubbles encouraging leverage people are listening I'm not encouraging encouraging ads yeah a lot of things came true you see we were joking they were
Starting point is 00:46:50 bits I guess some people they've taken it a little too seriously isn't there's isn't there some humor in every joke isn't that the point of humor you mean some truth some truth some truth in every what I say some joke there is some humor in every joke yeah some truth in every other as John Coogan once said wow there's humor in every joke I'm only on my second diagode. Don't talk to me. Cheers. Don't talk to me until I've had my 10th energy drink.
Starting point is 00:47:16 Cheers. Anyway, this is what the Fed had to say. Private credit has emerged as one of the fastest growing segments of non-bank financial intermediars. NBFIs. Over the past 15 years or so, reaching a total asset class size of $1.34 trillion in the U.S. alone by the middle of 2024. A report from Morgan Stanley published in October of 2025, estimated the size of the private credit market at the start of 2025 at $3 trillion.
Starting point is 00:47:43 A report from Vanguard said it was 1.8, so people are sort of all over the place. Private credit is an asset class that functions as a parallel banking system. Don't call it a shadow banking system. It's just merely parallel in darkness. Look, I'm going to be concerned. Here's what I'm going to be concerned. And you have leaders at these private credit firms that say, you know, look, private credit's amazing.
Starting point is 00:48:08 Yeah. But it's unfair that we're keeping all of these gains private. And we need to make them public. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So some type of like federal kind of involvement in the private credit sector could make sense. It would also be really, really bad if like one of the most respected leaders of one of the biggest banks in the world was to compare the industry to like. Cockro. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:48:35 like some really like, you know, some bug. That would be, that would be a bad thing. You don't want to be compared to a scottling creature. No, no, no. Maybe a soaring eagle instead. There are some soaring eagles in this, in this portfolio of private credit assets. So while it predates the global financial crisis of 2008, the scale of assets under management for private credit began growing precipitously
Starting point is 00:49:00 following the global financial crisis to fill a funding gap. As the regulatory standards for lending and capital requirements applied to banks, such as those introduced by Basel III, intensified in the wake of the GFC, non-bank such as private credit lenders, became a key source of funding for companies, especially those operating unprofitably as many software companies might be earlier in their life cycles. Chernenko specifically attributes an increase in non-bank lending to regulatory rigor. So the banks become more regulated after the financial crisis, and so non-esculated. bank lending that is not subject to the same regulations increases. Many, many such cases.
Starting point is 00:49:39 Another note from the Federal Reserve identifies private credit as a significant vehicle through which private credit is, or identifies private equity as a significant vehicle through which private credit is deployed because private equity acquisitions are often funded with debt through leverage buyouts. They used to go to banks for those lines of debt. Now they're going to private credit firms. Okay, and I think we should fast forward to down further private credit and the AI bowlcase because this article is very long and you should go subscribe to mobile dev memo and read it
Starting point is 00:50:09 entirely, but let's skip to the AI bowl case. Okay. So last month, Blue Owl sold $1.4 billion in private loans across three of its funds and announced that it would end regular quarterly liquid liquidity payments in one of its funds, OBDC2, opting instead for payouts tied to asset sales and other liquidity events. This month, Blackstone experienced a record number of redemption requests. And this is, they wanted to inspire their LPs to grind harder. Yes. The company indicated that it would honor all requests. If we give you too much mailbox money?
Starting point is 00:50:42 Mailbox money? I've never heard that term. Mailbox money? No, what's that? It shows up. You have some apartments somewhere and they just send you the check. Okay. No, I've never heard that before.
Starting point is 00:50:51 Wait, do you know that, Tyler? Mailbox money? No. Okay. Am I crazy? I don't know. Mailbox money refers to passive income that drives regularly with minimum active effort.
Starting point is 00:51:02 Okay. Commonly in the form of real estate income, oil and gas royalties or dividends. That's why you listen to TBPN. It also is a mixtape by Nipsey Hustle. Nice. That's why you know it. Also this month, JPMorgan marked down the value of loans. The bank holds as collateral from private credit funds related to software, businesses,
Starting point is 00:51:23 reducing those funds' ability to borrow. Some of this negative sentiment is attributed to recent bankruptcies from firms to which private credit facilities were exposed. First brands and tri-color are among the headline cases. But the substance of the current negative outlook might be traced to fears that AI will render the vertical SaaS products into which PE funds invested in the 2020-2020-vintage, irrelevant. So this is the SaaSpocalypse narrative, but playing out in the private markets. In a recent note, J.P. Morgan states private credit has 21% exposure to software driven by the attractiveness of SaaS recurring revenue models and the fact that 96% of software companies are privately held, exposure rises to 40% when including broader tech and business services, the highest among
Starting point is 00:52:14 extended credit markets. We see software volatility as a sector-led reset rather than a start of a macro default cycle. Similarly last week in an analyst memo, UBS proposed that investors increasingly want to talk about AI disruption in our tail risk scenario, a rapid, severe AI disruption. This is not our baseline. This 21% exposure thing is important because when John Zito was talking to the journal or he thought he was talking off the record and being a little candid, he was saying, you know, I would expect, you know, some of these loans to record only recover 30 to 40% of the overall loan value. And that just says to me like, okay, if you have 21% exposure, but you can get 30 cents on that. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:02 recover. You're down 15% overall. Yeah, it's not, it's not. But the goal is not to be down at all. Yeah, but you're also getting, you know, a lot of these companies have been getting interest, you know, you've been getting some amount of interest back on the loans. So, but again, it doesn't feel like, like you're getting anything close to a GFC style systemic risk yet, especially when you account for the fund kind of time horizon. and the fact they can just say, sorry, you can't get any money out right now. So here's what the Swiss bankers over at UBS had to say. I said, what is new, is a clearer catalyst, rapid, severe AI disruption,
Starting point is 00:53:45 assuming contagion impacts not modeled in our earlier note, we anticipate US, H, Y, LL, and PC high-yield leverage loan and private credit defaults could rise to 3 to 6%, 8 to 10%, and 14 to 15% for private. credit respectively. Blue Owls updated redemption policy has been compared to B&P Puribus suspension of redemptions for three funds exposed to US subprime MBS in August of 2007 roughly one year before Lehman Brothers failed. For reasons I've stated above, I think that comparison is flawed. The GFC was a systemic crisis driven by
Starting point is 00:54:24 leverage, opacity, and reliance on short-term funding. Mortgage credit risk was embedded throughout the financial system and amplified by opaque security products like CDO, CDO squared, and CDO cubed securities, which established tight interdependencies between institutions. Furthermore, the deep interconnectedness of the U.S. financial system rendered the GFC inherently systemic. Home prices were tethered to a mortgage derivatives market that was amplified in value by complex instruments that couldn't easily be valued or understood. The same isn't true of the private credit market, writes Eric Suford, which comprises relatively straightforward bilateral loans and is largely concentrated within private equity-backed
Starting point is 00:55:05 companies and dedicated and dedicated credit funds while pockets of stress have emerged. The system is less dependent on short-term funding and less tightly interconnected with core financial infrastructure. While the total value of the private credit market is vastly larger than the high-yield energy debt market of the 2014 to 2016 period, my belief is that distress will remain similarly localized and not spill over into the broader economy since there are limited direct risk conduits into the core banking system or short-term funding markets. So further, valuation multiples for PE-backed software companies and especially vertical
Starting point is 00:55:40 SaaS companies are compressing for two reasons. One, rising interest rates have increased their debt burden as a result of their floating rate loans. So a lot of these companies, we're sitting at, you know, a Fed fund rate of 3%. Now it's at 6, or I don't know what the Fed fund rate is, but interest rates have basically doubled since the ZERP era. And so their debt burden has also increased. And then two, AI and AI-enabled coding tools, more specifically, jeopardize the
Starting point is 00:56:08 defensibility of their businesses. So viewing the composite impact of these two effects as a potential threat to the broader economy ignores the productivity gains posed by AI that imperil vertical SaaS software solutions in the first place. If a company can replace a SaaS vendor with a homemade solution because new AI-enabled engineering tools reduce the time to deployment of a narrow task-specific piece of software to days from months or even years. That's exactly what we've done here.
Starting point is 00:56:34 We have a number of point solutions that didn't really exist before, but previously we might have gone to some sort of software company and said, oh, well, can you do a special version for us? Or can you change the economics? Change the economics. Reduces basically like moats. Yeah. So that same company is not only saving money by no longer.
Starting point is 00:56:55 paying for that specific point solution, but they are also likely accomplishing more across a number of other software development-related vectors, like clipping in our example. What might be critical here is the hurdle rate in terms of labor to accomplish any task. If one person can build software now with assistance from AI-enabled development tools that previously would have required a team, then building software becomes more accessible generally throughout the economy. For small companies, there is no build versus buy tension. The base cost of SaaS solutions may have simply priced them out of the market completely
Starting point is 00:57:30 since hiring a software development team is likewise unattainable. With AI-enabled tools, the cost of building a point solution is reduced dramatically. Certain companies may now benefit from those solutions, where before the economics were prohibitive across either building or buying, as civil security notes, in a rebuttal it published to a recent macro-short thesis. That was something big is happening? Or no, that was the Stringy prediction. Job postings for software developer roles have increased with the availability of AI-enabled development tools.
Starting point is 00:58:02 Critically, AI reduces not just the cost of building software, but the cost of attempting it, expanding the set of economically viable solutions across the long-tail of firms. Not just more software, but more bespoke solutions to commercial problems that should result, theoretically, in better firm-level outcomes that aggregate
Starting point is 00:58:18 to greater levels of economic productivity. Let's give it up for a better firm level. Philippe Aguon, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics last year, speaks to the expansionary effects of technology in his book, The Power of Creative Disruction, co-authored with two other authors. Automation is thus not in and itself an enemy of employment. Automation is not an enemy of employment. By modernizing the production process,
Starting point is 00:58:47 automation makes firms more competitive, which enables them to win new markets, and therefore to hire more employees. This is what we call a productivity effect. This same productivity effect was at work in prior industrial revolutions, those induced by the steam engine and then by electricity, and explains why neither of these revolutions
Starting point is 00:59:04 produced the mass unemployment that some had predicted. How can we reconcile this optimistic conclusion with the more pessimistic finding mentioned earlier that automation has a negative effect on employment at the level of commuting zones? One response is to invoke the difficulty of measuring automation and robotization, at the commuting zone level, as we discussed earlier.
Starting point is 00:59:24 A second possible explanation is that firms do not automate sufficiently, end up downsizing their employment, outsourcing their production, or simply going under. This would reflect an eviction effect of automation on employment. Firms that invest significantly in new industrial equipment substantially lower their likelihood of going out of business over the following 10 years compared to firms that do not make such an investment. It is thus not automation or manufacturing processes that causes
Starting point is 00:59:51 firms to eliminate jobs, but rather missing the critical juncture of automation and consequently finding themselves forced to reduce the scope of their activities or even exit the market. In other words, it is through the process of creative destruction that automation can lead to job losses. In that sense, the vertical SaaS companies acquired by PE firms under low interest rate conditions face headwinds not just from rising rates, but also because it's simply more costly as a result of institutional momentum for them to rebuild their workforce. and internal development processes around AI
Starting point is 01:00:23 than it is for a company to establish those workflows and development processes in first place. In other words, establish companies face higher costs in adapting to the AI era than do new entrants or companies that are internalizing these tools de novo and PE-backed firms are fundamentally averse to cost increases.
Starting point is 01:00:40 All right. Go subscribe to mobile dev memo. And before we get to our first guest of the show, we got to check in with Jeans, the restaurant in New York. They are weighing in. They're waiting. Private credit.
Starting point is 01:00:52 They say, if you think private credit is a problem, wait until you find out about the annuity businesses they all bought. I love that this story has gone so broad that is now being posted to the Instagram stories of New York restaurants. But that's where we are in this cycle. Anyway, let's move on to Andy Fang, the co-founder of DoorDash, who is winning for us in the radio radio. Andy, how are you doing?
Starting point is 01:01:22 Hey, what's up, guys? What's happened? See you again. Welcome back to the show. Wait, actually, we did not have your show. No, I was never on your show. I'm sorry for that. Stanley and Tony were both on the show.
Starting point is 01:01:32 That's right. The boys. Is it just the three of you guys, right? Or is there a fourth? Yeah, it's the three musketeers. Three musketeers. How's life these days? How's 2026 going?
Starting point is 01:01:43 2026 is good. I mean, lots going on. I mean, I guess, you know, for us, I think, AI is like a big focus of mine personally. at the company. So, yeah, I mean, recently we just announced. Yeah, maybe start with some background on your role, how it's changed over the period of building DoorDash and growing the company. I'm sure it's been a wild ride, but I'd love to hear it from your perspective,
Starting point is 01:02:09 and then we can go into the acquisition. Yeah, totally. I mean, let's see, 13 years in the making, I guess. I mean, so I've been always involved on the tech side, so really focused on product and technology at, DoorDash, you know, I helped scaled up our product and engineering teams for, I don't know, like eight, nine years, first eight, nine years of the company. More, after that, we brought on, you know, more senior leadership to kind of manage the growing organization. And I've been more focused on how do we help DoorDash find the next big bets to help us keep growing.
Starting point is 01:02:45 You know, I think whether it's our international businesses, our Dashpass subscription program, more recently with AI stuff, And so I think really just like sinking my teeth into various technology and business problems and figuring out how we can like kind of continue to grow the business and find those next seats. So talk about how the news today ties into your focus. Absolutely. So yeah, as I was briefly mentioning. So AI is like something that we're really trying to figure out DoorDash, how we can
Starting point is 01:03:17 incorporate it into our business. And so earlier today, we just announced that we acquired a company called Metis. They're an applied AI research lab. They went through YC and like we met with them. I want to say like six or seven months ago. And I think we were thinking about how to. Is that intentional? Be honest. Six seven. Six seven. Six seven. I don't know. I was like September. It really just pops into your brain. It's such a weird. I just feel like. Oh my gosh. I'm such an old head. No, too. I was I was reading through some Wall Street Journal article and I kept saying the two numbers that shall not be named together. And Jordan was like, are you doing this intentionally? September. September. September. You meet them. Absolutely.
Starting point is 01:04:03 So, yeah, so then September is when we first started talking to them. And we were trying to figure out how to productionize AI use cases at DoorDash. And so really, I mean, we kind of spread in terms of talking to a bunch of different startups. There's a lot of startups, like, trying to figure out how to deploy AI for, like, the enterprise use case. And we just, like, decided to be really open-minded about it and partner with a bunch of them. But Mattis really stuck out to us. I mean, we were working with them since September.
Starting point is 01:04:36 There are some really cool use cases around agitetic commerce and physical intelligence that I can talk about a bit that we're working with them on, that we're super excited to accelerate with them joining the company. So, yeah, I mean, they're... like a bunch of cracked 22-year-old, like, AI pill people, and they're, like, super high hustle, very knowledgeable about what's going on in the space. And, you know, we just wanted to inject a lot of the energy
Starting point is 01:05:03 into how we're trying to innovate here. Yeah, maybe maybe taking through some of the history of AI at DoorDash, because I imagine you were doing recommendation systems very early. Matching. Yeah, all sorts of stuff. And then when the LLM revolution happens, like the obvious bolt-on chat box went into a lot of apps. Like, did that happen? And then everyone starts using coding agents and IDs.
Starting point is 01:05:34 And so, like, what have been the key turning points just internally at DoorDash and AI adoption? Yeah. I mean, so I think to your point, I think there's two themes in terms of how we're trying to think about it. I think one is like employee enablement or like productivity. I think obviously you guys are very well aware of like since November basically. I think there's been an explosion, especially the coding side in terms of people being much more productive. I'd say I think at DoorDash, our evolution in terms of AI on like the product facing side has been a longer journey in the sense that I think we've been trying to figure out how this all fits into our marketplace and how this would benefit our customers. Like to your point, I think a lot of people, ourselves included, we're just trying to bowl.
Starting point is 01:06:16 some sort of chat box just to see how it would play in. And I think, one, when we did that a couple years ago, the LMs are not nearly as smart. But two, I think we just need to be more thoughtful, like how do we integrate this into the experience? And I think agentic commerce is something that a lot of people have been talking about and try to figure out. And for us, I would say, like, agented commerce is basically figuring out how we can leverage this technology to make it actually easier for restaurants to run their business and for customers to, like, find what they want on DoorDash. You know, I think one of the best things. big problems that we've had on DoorDash is and what people tell me all the time when I
Starting point is 01:06:51 talk to them. I was like, look, Andy, like, you guys got a ton of selection. I have no idea what to order. You know, it's like there's so much, you know, so many different restaurants and all these different cuisines, like, I'm having, like, decision paralysis right now. And so I think, like, that's a very interesting problem where we feel like AI can be beneficial in helping you, like, find what you want and give you confidence in that as a customer. So, I can't. One of the, The greatest luxuries or first world problems in life is decision paralysis on what to eat. It comes for everyone. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:07:26 Have you been seeing folks like vibe code sort of like plugins or add-ons or features that then you can potentially use to adopt a role into the actual roadmap? I swear I saw someone post something about this where they vibe coded basically a Chrome plugin that would filter DoorDash for vegetarian options. And it was like a pretty mature functionality and they just went through like a series of prompts and got to like something that they were very satisfied with. But that feels like they're sort of doing the R&D on their end. And then once it's working, you can actually bring that back. I'm wondering about this like primordial explosion of, of, of, you know, people building custom software and then the pipeline to actually bring that into the business as new features. That's interesting because I think there's something, I haven't heard of
Starting point is 01:08:22 that one specifically, be honest, but I think there has been a lot of interest as like, hey, like, can you figure out a way to like enable whatever my agent or like whatever software I'm building to integrate into the DoorDash ecosystem? Like I've gone some pings from founders and be like, yo, when's the DoorDash CLI coming out? And I'm like, hold on. Like, We need to figure what that means. And I think I would say, you know, and we also did something with Open AI in terms of like being an early partner with their ass ecosystem and stuff. So we're trying to figure out how we want to play in this space, to be honest. So just walk me actually through that Open AI partnership because like wouldn't that be the CLI?
Starting point is 01:09:00 Like if I have Codex, that's a CLA. And then if you have a partnership with OpenAI, can't Codex CLI talk to DoorDash then? Or is there some break in the chain that needs to be resolved? I think it's more like in chat chippy T. It's like not, it's not really accessible through Kodax. I don't think. So I have to tell Kodax to go use chat chvety. Open a web browser, click on the chat chagipt box. It is weird. Like these unhobblings are so like intuitive. And then you realize that, okay, there's actually some sort of business reason or whatnot. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think a lot of people are just trying to throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks. So I think one thing that we've been finding really like getting a lot of traction, especially with like what we're working with medicine on is I think there's some actual. agentic workflows, like customer-facing workflows that we're working on that. Like, just like us playing around with it the past couple weeks, like, we legitimately think this is going to be something that's going to be beneficial to customers and
Starting point is 01:09:51 help you find what you want and help you order, like. Okay. So how do you think about even positioning these products? It's like, obviously, like, broad public opinion on AI is not great. Is this the kind of thing? I'm assuming you're just like trying to deliver a great experience and not, you know, slap like DoorDash AI. the thing you've been waiting.
Starting point is 01:10:10 Yeah, exactly. I think we want to introduce it in a way that's actually beneficial to like conversion or like you finding what you want and being satisfied with it. And so that's why we've taken our time in some ways in terms of like rolling something out that we want to launch more broadly. But I think some of the challenges we've had historically is like these agents are not very smart at like finding you what you want.
Starting point is 01:10:33 This was like a while ago, right? Obviously things have gone a lot smarter. The question is how do we get leveraged the, intelligence that, you know, a lot of like harness building, context engineering type stuff. But it's also like, how do you build a great experience around it? Like, you know, there's like, obviously, LMs, they're super smart. Sometimes they like are slower with their reasoning, but we're just trying to find that balance. And like, I think to your point, it's like, how do we create an interesting experience that doesn't just feel like we're slapping something AI on?
Starting point is 01:11:04 Yeah. Are you going to do anything with, with voice at all? Like I can imagine somebody in the DoorDash app saying like, hey, I want Chinese food. I want to avoid feed oil. This is where it tells you that they integrated with Syria a decade ago. Yeah, yeah. We do have some voice modality stuff. But I think I would say that's a little bit more like just a modality in terms of how you place your order.
Starting point is 01:11:28 And like I guess if it's more natural language with the AI technology, like that's a natural. Yeah, I'm saying like, yeah, it's natural language. You're kind of searching over all the offerings in your area. and then it's like potentially putting together like a cart for you or in order you can check it out. A couple of more things. How does Metis tie into the physical AI autonomy? You mentioned something about that earlier. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:11:51 So I mean, I think DoorDash wants to play at the frontier physical intelligence. I think that's something we talked about for a while. Obviously our... You guys have your cute little robots. Exactly. The dot delivery robots. So my co-founder Stanley, who has been working on that full time, like we're super excited. to deploy those more broadly.
Starting point is 01:12:09 But, you know, we have, you know, a large courier network. We have a large support network where we're collecting billions of data points in the physical world every day. And it's like, how can we leverage that to actually push forward what's possible with robotics and physical intelligence? I think, you know, there's some interesting conversations we've had with various startups and labs on how we collaborate to push forward the frontier together. And I think Mattis has some great experience.
Starting point is 01:12:37 doing that type of stuff in the expert data space. I mean, you know, RIA and the CEO is like a former Mercore. So I think there's some really interesting stuff there that we're interested to explore. And yeah, we're excited to accelerate some of that together with them. Awesome. Matt from Tempo is coming on later today. Tempo is launching today. I know you guys were an early design partner.
Starting point is 01:13:00 Yes. Talk about kind of that decision to get involved. It's funny you bring that out because Matt literally texted me before. They say, hey, we're going to be on the show together. I was like six. So, yeah, we're excited. I mean, I'll let Matt talk more about that, but I think some of actually what Matt's working on is going to be synergistic with the agent of commerce stuff we're working on potentially.
Starting point is 01:13:19 But essentially, like, we are very excited to just partner with companies like Tempo to see how stable coins can be disruptive and innovative in our space. You know, more to come in terms of what exactly our pilot use case is going to be. But yeah, we've really enjoyed working with them. And, you know, Matt's been great. We've known Matt for a while. Awesome. I want to ask one more about Agentic Commerce.
Starting point is 01:13:45 I'm trying to think about, like, the product that I might actually want. I understand, like, when most people say Agentic Commerce, it's like open up chat GPT and fire off a query, say, order me a burrito, and it goes through DoorDash and you handle the rails. But I'm thinking more about, like, the next. version of that and maybe it's something like, okay, I have, I want lunch every day, but I need you to check my calendar because the show ends sometimes at 2, sometimes at 2.30. That information's on my calendar, but also sometimes I'm leaving to go to the airport and I'm flying, so I'm not available. And I could potentially like encode all these preferences. I have favorite things at different restaurants. I'd like some variety, but some consistency. Maybe you should fire off a text
Starting point is 01:14:34 message to me and let me know that I can opt out of today's, you know, order. And I feel like that's like the system that someone would vibe code if you gave them the CLI, but that should probably just live within DoorDash. So how do you think about that sort of, that sort of like operating at a higher level, like encoding all of your preferences and then putting your DoorDash experience, like basically on autopilot? Totally. I mean, I think one thing we say to ourselves is like, if someone's building DoorDash today, it would not look like DoorDash today. It would not look like DoorDash. you know like it would be I think and when we think about agents versus like just like outlines like agents in an ideal world they're not just telling you stuff they're actually doing stuff for you and I think I would say from what consumer facing use case perspective in my opinion I think besides the chat bots I think open clause like kind of the closest thing you've seen to something that is like where agentic commerce is heading towards and so we're very inspired by that type of um I don't know the use case is the right word but that model and that pair of paradigm of like agents doing stuff on behalf of you.
Starting point is 01:15:38 And I think your example like kind of hit it on the head is like, I don't want to just like you tell me stuff, like do stuff for me. And I think we have a ton of information on your preferences. We have time information and what's going on logistics wise in your neighborhood and your city. Like real time inventory information and restaurants and retailers. And so like we can create some magical experiences there. And again, for us, it's not just about slapping this technology on just for the sake of it. But it's like actually stuff that's like,
Starting point is 01:16:04 restaurants would really appreciate because we can help them run their business better. Like a concrete example on the restaurant side and I'll get back to your use case in the second but on the restaurant side
Starting point is 01:16:13 it's like I don't know how to price my pad tie in my neighborhood or like what deals or promotions should I be running right now you know? It's because like I just want to figure out how to grow my sales or like help me figure out how to
Starting point is 01:16:25 you know the lulls between lunch and dinner help me figure out of like you know get more demand there and then on the customer side I think to your example it's like, you know, like, I don't want to think about, like, ordering my lunch to the office every day or, like, my weekly groceries. The grocery use. Which is a crazy thing to say because, like, you basically invented the I'm hungry button on your phone.
Starting point is 01:16:45 And it's literally like two clicks for me when I used DoorDash. And I'm like, we still, I'm in the past. I don't want the horse anymore. Give me the call. Yesterday. I didn't have lunch yesterday. We actually messed up somehow. We at the office forgot to order.
Starting point is 01:16:59 Yeah, we forgot to order, actually. I know, I did have a salad, but it was like hours later. I figured it out. How rare is it to be 13 years into a business that has been as successful as DoorDash to still have three founders in the business? Yeah, that's crazy. I was trying to come up with an example. Narrative violation here.
Starting point is 01:17:20 They have a business at this scale. I did not expect that, but I don't take that for granted at all. I mean, in fact, totally. You just secretly hate each other, right? But there's like some weird contract. There's some weird contract where if any of you leave, The whole company shuts down, so you're locked to each other, handcuffed on the Titanic together. No.
Starting point is 01:17:38 I'm messing with, like, I, I, I'm very grateful for the dynamic and the relationship we have. I mean, I think Tony is, like, you know, one-of-one CEO. And I think, like, we have a really good dynamic together. And we put a lot of trust in each other to, like, just do the right thing. Have you always had the same roles, basically, and sort of known, okay, I'm not going to step on this person's toes in this particular. region because then there's mutual trust as opposed to like a lot of founding teams they get in trouble when it's like there's three people that want to be CEO and they're like fighting over it constantly I mean that's usually what happens.
Starting point is 01:18:14 Oh yeah, it's true. I mean, I would say we delineated their responsibilities pretty early on and I think Tony's role has stayed consistent. I mean, CEO's CEO. But I think Stanley and I, our roles have evolved around both how to stay on the forefront of innovation but also just making sure like we're thinking about like what are the most important problems to solve. But no, I think we have a really good relationship. I think it's high trust. I mean, we're getting dinner tonight. We try to catch up every so often.
Starting point is 01:18:43 But yeah, I mean, I think-door-dashing dinner tonight. No, we're going to go out. I don't know where we're going out. But we'll pick a spot. But no, it's a special relationship. I did not expect that. But yeah, it's right. That's cool. Last last question. After the very silly Satrini piece, Did you guys, have you thought about doing a hackathon and getting your best engineers to be like, hey, just vibe code doordash? Yeah. Make the agent native doordash. Because I think it would actually be really interesting to just actually try to do it and see. You know, it's funny.
Starting point is 01:19:18 You bring that up because there's a, that's a Trini report, like blew up out of nowhere. And I don't know. I mean, honestly, we didn't react too much to it. I mean, I tweeted something response to it just in terms of my own thoughts there. but I would say, like, in general, like... Two words, network effects. Yeah, I mean, I would say in general, like, we just try to focus on growing our business
Starting point is 01:19:39 and focus on customers. But I don't know, like, we try to vibe code a bunch of different use cases, but not try to vibe code DoorDash. Yeah. There's more to it, more to a Bits and Adams company. Awesome. Great to be you, Andy.
Starting point is 01:19:56 Next time, bring all three. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We'd love that. Maybe we'll do a all three of us in a point. Yeah, we have a round table. We got enough chairs and mics. We'll do the whole history. Awesome.
Starting point is 01:20:05 Well, yeah, congrats. Give our best of the Mettus team. Congrats on the partnering app. It's very cool. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. Have a good one.
Starting point is 01:20:14 Speaking of Agentic Commerce, let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows of your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents.
Starting point is 01:20:25 And let me also tell you about voice mode. You want voice mode? Why not sign up for 11 labs? Build intelligent real-time conversational agents. Reimagined human technology interaction with 11 labs. And without further ado, we will bring in Matt Jason from Multiply. How you doing, Matt? What's going on?
Starting point is 01:20:43 Hey, guys. Nice to see you. We're talking about my favorite topic. What are we talking about? Introduce yourself in the company. Right on. So my name is Matt Jason. I am the founder and CEO of Multiply.
Starting point is 01:20:54 And we are the first ever hybrid AI media agency for media company. We're making ads. You're speaking my language. Yeah, we run some ads. Okay. Do you guys like ads? We love ads. The ads make you guys some money?
Starting point is 01:21:07 Yes, the entire business is ads and we... We refuse to have any revenue that isn't ads. And just to be clear, we would run ads even if we weren't being paid and we have run ads that we didn't get paid for because we'd have a flaw of the game. Early on, we had this bit where we would just be talking and then we would just be talking and then we'd be changing the subject, and John would go, before we talk about X, Y, Z, I need to tell you about Gulfstream. And it would sound like a podcast ad. But I didn't say that we were sponsored by them. I just said, I got to tell you about this company, because it's really cool. And I got to run an app.
Starting point is 01:21:43 And we would put in the description, like, this show wouldn't be possible without. And that's just a number of brand. It's just like they, like, it wouldn't be possible without them because they're awesome. I like this company. Anyway, break it down a little bit lower. Who are your customers? How are they actually? using Multiply. What pieces of the funnel are you touching in the B2B advertising space? Definitely. All right. So first, just the big news of today is we've raised, we came out of stealth today. We raised $9.5 million. Oh, yes. Thank you. Thank you. Congratulations.
Starting point is 01:22:21 At source and capital, Instacart, co-founder Max Mullin and Josh Woodford, Leads Gemini, Google, and lots more great people. And the reason we're all huddled in this advertising space, this is an old world in advertising. Google has built massive business, LinkedIn, and Twitter, but massive advertising businesses. But ads feel the same way they did 5, 10, 15 years ago, despite the crazy rise in AI.
Starting point is 01:22:44 And we work for B2B companies. We worked for it. So I came from Brex before this. We worked for high growth B2B companies who have these crazy goals in their head. They have to go 5X their sales pipeline. And that's a lot of, honestly, your sponsors here too. And it's pretty impossible of a task today.
Starting point is 01:23:06 You've got to go figure out across all your channels, how can you go grow faster? And advertising is just stuck in the old world. So what we found a way to do is say, hey, the big problem in advertising is stuff goes stale right away. You launch a new ad. Your audience is tuned out in two, three days a week tops. And your message is still. So what we've done, we've said, great. Let's go combine AI agents with the best humans in the world at MediaBine.
Starting point is 01:23:32 And we built this combination AI plus human media agency. And what we do together is we build self-learning apps. So really what that means is you put out initial campaigns. We're connected into your sales call recordings. So we see why your customers actually say to your sales team, hey, we love what you do. Here's why we want to buy from you versus competitor. We read your customer emails. We get the same thing.
Starting point is 01:23:55 Every time there's a new quote or pain point, we ingest this and we can actually go create tens or hundreds of new ads dynamically learning based upon what people love just what you do. So that's our world. We're already partnering with companies like Banta, like Listen Labs and Superhuman. How are there being? Thank you. And the growth is insane. And for a lot of these companies, they're hitting 300 to 500% or more growth on these ad channels just from changing from static old world. ads to new world self-hitting ads. Basically, there's all this, all this like knowledge that has been
Starting point is 01:24:30 trapped in sales, and you're basically just like bringing it over and helping. And it's different from just going to an off-the-shelf LLM provider and saying, like, come up with some taglines for my business because you're ingesting proprietary data that happened on a phone call between the top salesperson and an interesting client that surfaced something interesting. And then you can actually pipeline that through to the creative. That makes sense. sense. That's it. That's a spot on. It's grabbing this for hydrogenated for your business. Yeah. And we see why people love like what you do, not like some generic company might like it. Like specifically your product, what you have. And then we help you grow based on it, which we love, like,
Starting point is 01:25:09 renovation help companies can't discover. And a lot of that stuff isn't, it's just not available on the open web. Like, that's probably true for consumer. People do post about their clothes that they purchase and the food that they eat. but a lot of people aren't actually sharing how a particular piece of B2B software is making their business more efficient just organically. So even if you have... I'm euphoric right now.
Starting point is 01:25:33 Even if you have an LLM that can scrape the web and is very good at searching, it's not going to have access to that data. So that's proprietary is really important. With a kind of thesis I've had for a while now, which is historically ads had very limited targeting. You'd be, you know, let's say running like a TV ad on a specific channel, like very limited target.
Starting point is 01:25:53 you're creating creative that's going to be seen by tons and tons of people and you can't really control who those people are, which is like the most general ad. And then with social, you could create an ad that was like effectively for, you know, 100,000 people and you run it, and it gets stale quickly, and you have to create more creative. And it feels like we're on a trajectory towards at some point, and people that hate commerce and ads and the economic engine of the internet won't like this, but it feels like we'll get to a a point where like every ad is basically created in real time for a specific individual. Do you, do you see that, do you see us kind of headed in that, in that direction? And part of that is just
Starting point is 01:26:34 like the right message at the right time for the right, like one specific person. And there's obviously kind of like layers to that stack. Maybe you need to multiply that's also working with like a, you know, a meta platforms, et cetera. But headed towards like targeting that's so extreme, it's like one ad for one. Or potentially a vibe.com where do you see brands, B2B startups, AI companies advertise on streaming TV, pick channels, target audiences, measure sales, just like on meta. You could deploy for your customers. You could potentially be a big partner to vibe.co, our partner. So I, look, I love that vision. We're seeing companies are demanding the same thing. We're running these personalized ads where we see, hey, a similar set of customers decided buy food for this
Starting point is 01:27:20 reason, hey, actually, let me step back. When we're seeing financial services companies, with a certain sector, buy from a certain reason, we're already running different ads to them than manufacturing customers with certain revenue ranges. So it's already, we're actually ingesting CRM data, where we can do a version of what you're talking about and saying, hey, don't advertise to these folks. And for these folks, give them this specific messaging based on why they buy from you. So we're going there. We're having companies ask us all the time for more personalized. So we're building more for one-to-one as well. I think the question and the thing that I think is so interesting about the space, even if you can go do one-to-one advertising for everyone,
Starting point is 01:27:58 how do you know it's the right message when it's predictive? And really, one of the things that we focus on is not saying that we know the right answer. A lot of traditional media agencies have like a playbook. They'll say, hey, we know the best way to break through. And we fundamentally disagree with that. We think the best approach is always on obsessive testing. So when we talk to growth marketers, like the way we frame a lot of our AI, we frame it as we built the world's most insatiable AI agent. And just like a good growth marketer, there's no such thing as enough pipeline.
Starting point is 01:28:29 And the reason I say that here is we're running hundreds of experiments every week for a lot of companies. It's thousands over time. And when you see all of that, you're actually learning by doing. You can't just say one to one, here's the right message. It might be one to one. let's try 10, 20, 30 things until we crack. This is what really isn't speaking the language of that person or that customer that speaks to them. And you want to speak their language, even though it's your value, your brain, your brain, life.
Starting point is 01:28:57 All right, here's a challenge. Sell me a pen in the next 24 hours. Sell me, actually sell me a, it would be the B2B equivalent. Like I want an ad for a copacor that can make me custom pens by the billions if I want them. TBPN branded pens. This could be our next merch drop. Thank you so much. Great to meet you, Matt.
Starting point is 01:29:22 Congratulations on the round. Congratulations on the race. Very exciting company. We'll talk to you soon, Matt. Let me tell you about Century. Century shows, developers, what's broken and helps them fix it fast. That's why 150,000 organizations
Starting point is 01:29:34 use it to keep their apps working, and let me also tell you about cognition. They're the makers of Devon, the AI Software Engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. And we have... Cameron, here in the studio. Are you a doctor?
Starting point is 01:29:47 Should I be calling you doctor? You don't need to call me a doctor, but I am a licensed clinical psychologist. Wow. Congratulations. Give a little bit of your background. Explain the company, and then obviously I want to dive into the current thing, which is the peptide debate. Of course, yeah.
Starting point is 01:30:00 So I'm Dr. Cameron Sapa. I'm a licensed clinical psychologist. I served as an assistant clinical professor of psychiatry at the UCSF School of Medicine for over a decade. That's a good school, right? It's the number three medical school in the country. And since 2012, I've been. become a serial health care entrepreneur.
Starting point is 01:30:16 So I was on the founding team of Amada Health, which is a unicorn that went public last year that creates online weight loss programs. It's helped a million people lose 10 million pounds and cut their risk of diabetes and heart disease in half. That's a great KPI. The thing I'm much more proud of than the financial outcome. Spent a year at Trinity Ventures on the VC side of the business,
Starting point is 01:30:34 and now I'm currently the founder and CEO of Maximus, where we are pioneering performance medicine. And what's the core focus of Maximus? Obviously, we're going to talk about peptides, but you've been in the business since before the peptide boom, correct? For sure. Okay. And peptides is really, you know, almost like a meaningless term.
Starting point is 01:30:52 It just really means like drugs. It's a particular chain of amino acids that are getting hyped right now. Yeah. Performance medicine spans hormones, peptides, and other small molecules. Yeah. You'll appreciate it. We were at a conference in 2024, and it was like we had just started kind of doing the show. And we were asked to give a talk kind of last seconds.
Starting point is 01:31:12 we were like, oh, what should we talk about? And it was meant to be like somewhat of a provocative subject. And we were making the case that basically founders should be on like a performance drug stack, right? And that venture capital firm should have platform teams. They should be like helping them optimize. They have their go-to-market team. They have their brand team. They have their recruiting.
Starting point is 01:31:35 They'll help you optimize your performance. But how important is performance these days outside of, you know, bodybuilding competitions. Yeah, you know, I think a lot of, in fact, the trend that we're seeing this huge consumer wave, whether in peptides or sort of performance enhancement, really trickles down from professional athletes and bodybuilders. You know, one kind of hack I describe is you can look at the Wadalist, the world anti-doping association, and that gives you a pretty good indication. That was our point is like there's no, there's no banned substances. I mean, there are like actual legal drugs, but there's not like, there's no governing body in business that says, you
Starting point is 01:32:12 You cannot take these because they work too well. Exactly, right. And I have a private practice on the side. I work with the top Silicon Valley CEOs and VCs. And I can tell you, without naming names, a lot of the folks that you interview are taking essentially doctor prescribed, but performance enhancing substances in order to be more effective at their jobs with less stress. And what does that mean effective?
Starting point is 01:32:34 Because just being in shape and being able to walk around and not be too tired during the day, that's valuable, but then there's also focus, if you're working on a spreadsheet or programming. There's so many different levers to pull on performance broadly. How do you narrow it down? Is it case by case? Yeah, so the way I describe it, I think there's sort of five foundational health behaviors. So diet, exercise, sleep, stress management, and intimacy are the five things that are critical for health span and lifespan. And let me make a little bit of an analogy that I think really captures the field of performance medicine. So Steve Jobs, used to love to tell a story about how there's an article in Scientific American that would track
Starting point is 01:33:17 how effective various animals of the world are at locomotion. So who can travel a kilometer with the least amount of calories, right? Now, the condor, a bird, was the most efficient animal. And human beings, right, exactly. Human beings, despite being, you know, the crown of creation, were like a third of the way down the list. So it was pretty, pretty unimpressive showing. But someone had the bright idea and they said, if you give a human being a bicycle, they skyrocket to the top of the list. And so Steve would make that analogy that the personal computer
Starting point is 01:33:46 is the bicycle for the mind, right? And really revolutionize the world with that idea. I'd argue now we're seeing the precipice of two new revolutions in that AI is the motorcycle for the mind. It's not only as smart as a PhD, but it has all of the PhDs and can work 24-7.
Starting point is 01:34:01 And similarly, we're seeing a revolution in biology and this shift towards performance medicine. So if you take the five foundational health behaviors that I described, and you want to enhance your ability to do these things because they're critical to your health, you probably have a supplement stack, like you're saying, right? So let's just walk down those five things. So if you're trying to enhance your exercise and the main goal of exercise is to build muscle mass, you're probably going to take the most studied ergogenic supplement, which is creatine.
Starting point is 01:34:29 Yep. Right? Now, creatine, if you just sit on your couch all day, is not going to do much for you except make you bloated. But if you combine it with strength training, it will increase slightly the amount of your lean mass. Now, what happens if you introduce testosterone? Now, testosterone, there's a great study that was done. Don't get John started.
Starting point is 01:34:45 Don't attempt to. There was a great study that was done that gave guys testosterone and told them not to exercise. They gave another group. They told them to exercise without testosterone, and then obviously the combination. Now, the combination obviously grew the most amount of muscle in that testosterone and strength training are obviously synergistic. But the fascinating thing is the guys who took testosterone and sat on their butt all day grew far more muscles than the guys who lifting weight five days a week without testosterone. Right.
Starting point is 01:35:12 It is literally a cheat code. And so it literally mocks creatine, if you will, in that it is far more performance enhancing, which is why it's banned by water. Yeah, yeah. And so really, if you want to, you know, grow muscle in the most efficient way possible, testosterone is clearly the best way of doing it. Now, what about diet? Wait, quickly on creatine, I have a question.
Starting point is 01:35:33 So I heard a theory that creatine has benefits outside of muscle, building. And the basic effect was that it helps with hydration. It's good to be hydrated. It's helping your cells retain water, which is why some people complain about creatine. Oh, it's just water weight, but water in your muscles makes your muscles look bigger. So people are happy with that. But that creatine could potentially be beneficial outside of a bodybuilding context. Yeah. So there's some recent studies that show that it can help with sleep deprivation. So there's some brain absorption effects. Don't you have to take a ton of it for that, though? Yeah. I think it's a little I've tried doing that on some
Starting point is 01:36:09 I'm like, I don't know, boss. I don't know if I could have the 50th gummy today to get my. Well, that's the irony, right? People are megadosing creatine in order to eke out some very slight performance enhancing benefits when they could be taking testosterone and having very
Starting point is 01:36:25 clear performance enhancing benefits. So the other health behavior, diet, obviously critical for minimizing body fat. So the most common supplement that you can take to try to regulate your appetite is fiber. Right? Almost everyone takes fiber in some form and other, whether through whole foods or a supplement. You might lose one, maybe 2% of your body fat if you're consuming a fiber supplement.
Starting point is 01:36:46 But now with these prescription gLP1s, semaglutide, tears appetite, their, its clinical studies are showing 14.7% weight loss, 22% weight loss. So it absolutely trumps anything that you can take in terms of a supplement. And it's obviously literally bending the obesity curve in America. If you look at sleep, the most common over-the-counter supplement. lament for sleep is melatonin, right? Melatonin mildly works. It can particularly help if you have jet lag. But what if you take a growth hormone peptide? So when you... Sounds really aggressive. It is, but think about this. Your growth hormone peaks at puberty, and it actually declines throughout your lifespan. And so... What if you stub your toe? Have you
Starting point is 01:37:26 considered trend? Well, trend is an an anabolic steroid that I would not recommend for the most people. Or a stub toe. There's a lot of anti-aging... I was like, all right, you forced me, forced my hand, I'll take it. Yeah, for sure. But the fascinating thing is because growth hormone declines across the lifespan, you can take a growth hormone peptide and just restore yourself back to youthful levels. And that's what a lot of the scientific consensus is about, not the super physiological levels, not getting your testosterone 10,000 times bigger than what it would be naturally.
Starting point is 01:37:57 But if you are truly at a deficit, bringing you back in line, that's sort of the medical consensus, correct? Exactly. Okay. So there are growth hormone peptides now, Cermerellin and Tessimorellin. Okay. That enhanced sleep, the enhanced recovery, allow people to sleep back until they're towards that seven to eight to nine hours of sleep.
Starting point is 01:38:14 That's critical for physiological restoration. Okay. If you think about stress management, the other, kind of fourth health behavior, the most common to supplement that people take is magnesium. It helps you kind of be calm and kind of not be too stressed. It works mildly as well. But now you can take oxytocin. So oxytocin, you probably know is sort of the love or connection hormone.
Starting point is 01:38:34 Right. We've actually developed a topical formulation of it. So you can actually apply it. I'll show you what it looks like. This is a little container. You can apply it intranasally or on thin skin. Okay. Such as the scrotum or the perennium.
Starting point is 01:38:46 It absorbs. And it reduces cortisol, the stress hormone. And it helps people feel more connected, far more than, you know, a magnesium. This is what the kick streamers need. If they get frame-mogs. Oh, that's true. The cortisol spikes. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:39:00 An epipen. Yeah. It will prevent, actually, a cortisol spike. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Interesting. If you're getting fraymogged. Yes. There you go.
Starting point is 01:39:07 Yeah, you don't need a stab. You don't apply it, I would say. And then finally, intimacy, I think, is the most underrated health behavior. Zinc is the most common supplement that people take in terms of enhancing sort of sexual function. Sure. But the ED drugs, Tidal Phil, Viagra, Vardinafil. Yep. There's a big boom with hymns and hers and Roman.
Starting point is 01:39:27 Exactly. So people are taking that because it not only enhances sexual function in terms of erectile strength. ability to last longer enhancing the enjoyment of sex. But it actually increases blood flow to all of your body. And to your muscles, to your brain, people take it as a pre-workout. There's interesting associational research showing that it reduces the incidence of Alzheimer's and dementia. There needs to be further studies that needs to be done to substantiate that. But that's the future that I see, is that almost everyone right now has sort of that supplement stack.
Starting point is 01:39:58 But I predict, this is my kind of bold prediction, is that the top founders in VCs and the next five years, we'll be taking at least three of those five things that I mentioned. So testosterone to build muscle, chorzabatide to drop fat, test the Moralin to increase growth hormone and recovery, to dalafil to increase intimacy and blood flow, and oxytocin to reduce their stress. Okay. So those five, so you have the five supplements and then the five drugs that need prescriptions, right? Is your prediction that the FDA will approve of non-prescription versions of those exact chemicals or that everyone will sort of elevate to working with a doctor that can actually write prescriptions. Yeah, it's a great question. All of these prescription drugs that I
Starting point is 01:40:42 mentioned are already FDA approved. Yes. But a physician has the right to prescribe any of these off label. Yes. So Tidalphil is a great example. It's FDA approved for erectile dysfunction. Sure, sure, sure. But we actually prescribe it as a blood flow enhancers. So some people literally take it as a prescription pre-workout for non-sexual reasons or they are taking it as an anti-aging of drug. Sure. Because that's sort of the vision of performance medicine is it's not just treating a deficit or a medical problem, but it's enhancing your health, your aesthetics or your performance.
Starting point is 01:41:13 Sure. And so, like, between those two, you would expect, like, many more doctor's visits, many more consultations with medical professionals to get access to that tier of prescription-only medicines. Yeah. Well, and I feel like that fits into this, like, you know, put differently. you're positioning this as like much more proactive approach to medicine, not just trying to survive when something bad happens or you're experiencing some sort of disease, but like proactively
Starting point is 01:41:44 trying to take yourself from the baseline to the best you can possibly use. Yeah, you absolutely nailed it. The problem is right now in America, we don't have a health care system. We have a sick care system, right? And it's run by an oligopoly of insurance companies that are not in the business of providing health care. They're in the business of denying health care. Very sadly and tragically, when the UHG CEO is killed. There's some issues where, like, various health tech companies will, you know, be talking to VCs and they'll say, like, oh, like, we're going to be able to get access to insurance dollars. And the issue with that is that insurance companies don't care if something will make you healthy
Starting point is 01:42:21 in 10 years because you're most likely going to be on a new insurance plan. They're just wasting money, right? They expect you, the average American stays at their job, like, you know, low, single, digit years, I think. And so that just means, like, they're like, that's great. You're going to be healthier later, but I'm not going to pay for the benefit of some other insurance care. Yeah, that was what we learned at Omada, because we sold through employers that if the employer didn't retain their employees for more than three years, there's no point of selling into it because they're like, it's not my problem. Someone else is going to have to pay for it.
Starting point is 01:42:51 So really, the antidote to that is performance medicine in that it bypasses the insurance system all together. And within basically, we're a cash pay private practice that operates in all 50 states. And our belief is that the only person that should be making a decision is you and your doctor. And that every drug, of course, has risks, but it's up to you and your doctor to decide whether the cost benefit is worth it for you in making that decision, not the insurance companies who are really in the business of minimizing the amount of care. I'll give you a really great example of this. If anyone measures their testosterone levels, unless you're below the second and a half percentile, the insurance company will deem you're not sick enough, essentially, to be warranted
Starting point is 01:43:32 to remorse street. You have the bottom, being the bottom, two and a half percentile. So the question is naturally, what happens to the other 97 and a half percent of Americans? Obviously, the lower half of that would probably feel better in terms of their energy, their motivation, their drive, their sexual function, their ability to build muscle mass. But even folks who are, let's say, low normal would probably benefit from a higher level of testosterone in terms of the performance enhancement that we're talking about. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:43:55 Right. Insurance will never pay for that. And so there's been a proliferation of the rise of sort of private practices like Maximus in order to really meet the needs because I think there's this huge consumer trend, which includes peptides and hormones, of people who want to enhance their health, enhance their performance and enhance the quality of their life. What are you, how are you advising clients and just people broadly around the risks associated with peptides? There's a debate raging right now. Is BPC 157? Just like efficacy, but also the potential risk, because we don't necessarily have, for some of them, we have plenty of data, even if we don't have full-on studies. But how are you kind of guiding people? Yeah, really the question is which peptides and which drugs? Sure.
Starting point is 01:44:43 Because we can't sort of... Just some are fully approved. Yeah, exactly. So the GLPs are really, these are peptides as well, oxytocin that I mentioned. Those are also peptides. That have literally been FDA approved, some of them for decades. Yeah, yeah. Have a very substantial body of literature on them.
Starting point is 01:44:59 And so, you know, comparing that to, let's say, a BPC, which is not FDA-approved, is a very different ballgame. So responsible clinics, I would say, like ours, are only prescribing FDA-approved drugs that have a very substantial body of human literature, in addition to a lot of clinical experience, right? So some of the, like, we're actually the largest prescriber, for instance, in Clomaphene in the United States. We publish studies with ends in the thousands on the safety and efficacy of these things. And so with the body of literature, then I think you can evaluate each drug on their own merits and decide, okay, is this something that's worth prescribing as a clinic? And then obviously each person between them and their doctor make a decision of whether that cost-benefit is worth it for them. Now, I think individuals can always make a choice in taking something that's a little bit more experimental.
Starting point is 01:45:47 That's up to them. But really, I really recommend that people are getting it through a doctor, and it's fulfilled by an FDA-inspected compounding pharmacy that's regulated. Yeah, what kind of, have you heard any horror stories around these kind of like offshore compounders, just people getting? Well, those aren't compounders. Those are just, yeah, there's a lot of people who are just literally buying black market illegal drugs directly from manufacturers or from resellers in the United States. And yeah, I mean, you know, there's literally labs that are, the problem is you can't ensure what you're getting is pure. It's even the compound, like peptide sciences, which just shut down was, you know, people were testing it. They're buying a non-FDA approved GLP that's soon to be on the market. And literally it didn't.
Starting point is 01:46:34 Reda? Yeah, it didn't contain any of reda in the vial. Or what's a common thing is they might contain it, but the dose might be off by 50%. And so what you're seeing is people having side effects because Reda is a glucagon agonus. It has effects on the heart, increases heart rate, reduces heart rate variability. If you're not able to dose it properly, you're more likely to have side effects as a result. So it's a Wild West. Any responsible clinician would say don't buy things on the black market. Now, obviously, individuals can make their own libertarian choices about what they do.
Starting point is 01:47:06 But the difference is that there are good alternatives on the market. For instance, Tearsabotide is generally, efficacious for weight loss. There's no reason for most people to be taking RETA and also to be dealing with the potential. We have one that's FDA approved. We have one that's FDA approved. You know that it's pure. You know that it's relatively safe because there's a wide
Starting point is 01:47:24 body of literature and it doesn't have the cardiac effects. Do you think Hollywood is going to be somewhat of a model for Silicon Valley in the sense of like actors have historically been like, how did this actor have this insane transformation? Chicken broccoli? You're right. A lot of water and it's like
Starting point is 01:47:42 I don't know about that. But it basically is like bodybuilders lead the charge. Hollywood kind of picks up on that. But is Hollywood kind of somewhat of the model? Yeah, I think so. And I think increasingly Silicon Valley investors and founders are going to increasingly become the model. The problem with Hollywood is until maybe recently,
Starting point is 01:48:04 a lot of people literally have to lie and say they weren't on TRT, despite the fact I have friends who are personal trainers to these guys who prep them for the movies. they're clearly on performance-enhancing drugs. Nobody bills like... Well, yeah, it is irresponsible for like, you know, Zach Ephron to be like, yeah, I'm on TRT because a bunch of young people are going to see that.
Starting point is 01:48:23 Totally. I want to look like that. Exactly. But this is a really great point that you mentioned about sort of young people in TRT, and this is actually one of the whole, you know, founding genesis of Maximus, right? So testosterone is a really interesting compound. The gold standard is injectable testosterone.
Starting point is 01:48:37 So if you inject exogenous testosterone from outside of your body, your body realizes it's getting enough. And so your testicles will shut down, shrink, and you become infertile. So nobody under the age of 50 or nobody who wants them still have children should really be injecting testosterone. Now, you can take something called HCG, which is a replacement for LH, and it can help you get off of it and restore your fertility. But it's not perfect. And there's some risks involved. However, there are alternatives nowadays. So we actually prescribe oral and topical testosterone, so you don't need to inject it. and it's native testosterone.
Starting point is 01:49:11 It's the same testosterone that your body makes. The problem with injectable testosterone is we made sort of an interesting devil's bargain is we took testosterone and we added a molecule to it called an ester. So you probably have heard of testosterone sippionate. The benefit of the ester is that because it's annoying to inject every single day, you only need to inject it once a week. So it becomes more convenient. The downside is it redlines your testosterone for 24-7 for a whole week.
Starting point is 01:49:35 And so it shuts down and suppresses your endogenous production. So you're basically becoming. dependent on it and if you come off of it, you're going to go through withdrawal symptoms. The benefit of oral testosterone is that it peaks within two to four hours, lasts about six to eight, and topical testosterone peaks at about two and a half hours lasts about 12 to six. And so they're shorter half-life, shorter duration, and they're less suppressive. The interesting thing that we found in our research is that if you take oral testosterone, it's actually not very suppressive for most people.
Starting point is 01:50:01 And if you combine it within chlamophene, which is a selective estrogen receptor modulator, it basically blocks estrogen in a particular part of the brain, the hypothalamus, in the pituitary. It prevents that suppression from happening. And so you can kind of have your cake and eat it too for the first time in that it. Someone of like a free lunch. A little. There's no such thing.
Starting point is 01:50:19 It's completely a biological free lunch. But you can maintain your natural testosterone production and then supplement it with oral testosterone and enclamphine. And then the really revolutionary thing that we found is topical testosterone, which has been used for over half a century. You apply it to your scrotum. It can increase your testosterone by several fold. It's normally suppressive.
Starting point is 01:50:37 But when you add inclamophene to it, You can maintain your natural testosterone production and enhance it to high normal levels. In fact, we have two patents on the combination of oral and topical testosterone plus enclamophine. And so actually men as young as 18 can take these without suppressing their fertility markers. So it's really a revolution and it allows us to really fulfill the vision of performance medicine because there are safer alternatives. The injectable testosterone is still great for the guys who are over 50 and they don't mind being on it for the rest of their lives.
Starting point is 01:51:10 But they're now essentially safer alternatives for younger guys or guys who want to maintain their fertility. And we're actively doing this research, publishing it, patenting these protocols, and disseminating them so we can democratize performance medicine. How do you think about the personalization of medicine? We talked to Paul Cueningham on Monday. He was the fellow who used AI to process some DNA data
Starting point is 01:51:33 around his dog who was suffering from cancer and was able to work with a lab to synthesize a, a custom mRNA vaccine that was targeting the specific cancer that his dog had, sort of looking at the delta between the healthy dogs DNA and the cancerous DNA in the same animal
Starting point is 01:51:50 and then was able to create sort of a one-of-one medicine for that dog. I could imagine that coming to well, there's these peptides. They work broadly on populations, but in the future is there a world where you're getting a terseptide that's designed specifically.
Starting point is 01:52:08 specifically for you. And would there actually be a benefit of that or is that where we're going? Absolutely. It's already here. In fact, with Tears of a Tide, we have microdoses. Okay. So this is like... So that's modulating the amount of product, but not the actual molecular construction. Yeah. It's in this particular case, it's not. Okay. But the benefit of doing a microdose, for instance, it's for people who are not overweight. Of course. So it would be the MI under 25. Why would you? They may not even want to lose weight, but they might want to take it to reduce their inflammation aging is sort of the term that's used. It reduces, you know, impulsivity. It can just help reduce some of the food noise. And maybe there's some folks who are
Starting point is 01:52:46 not necessarily overweight, but they want to maintain a six-pack without having to constantly fight this willpower battle for the rest of their life. That's obviously a little bit more aesthetic and performance enhancing. But that custom dose, people can kind of find the right dose that fits for them. So yes, there's going to be both personalized medicines in terms of the type of medicine, but also I think the dosing is really critical because it allows flexibility. So Enchlamphine is a really good example. When Enchlamophene first was introduced to the market, literally the only dosage that was available, 25 milligrams.
Starting point is 01:53:14 Yeah, yeah. And it's like him. That's what they studied. You get 25 milligrams of Viagra no matter who you are, right? We offer eight different dosages all the way from 3.125 milligrams to 25 milligrams. Sure. And the way we titrated is actually through lab testing. So we have an at-home blood test.
Starting point is 01:53:28 Okay. You don't have to go to a quest. You can just stick it on your shoulder. You press a button. And you can take out about half a lot. a pinky full of blood. And we can not measure 100 markers like at Quest, but we can measure about a dozen of them, including testosterone. You take it to a lab. Exactly. Mails next day air to a lab. So you can take your baseline levels. You know where you stand. And then we can put you on,
Starting point is 01:53:47 let's say, topical testosterone plus enclamophine. You'll probably notice your total testosterone goes over a thousand. Your free testosterone goes over 200. And then we can titrate you to just the right the amount by retesting you after 30 days. And usually after one or two iterations, we can get you to make sure that your lab numbers are ideal, but also that you're feeling and functioning your best. So this is really the promise of personalized medicine that you're talking about that will be personalized to every single person. How much do you care about wearable data when working with clients?
Starting point is 01:54:17 I would say in my private practice, I look a little bit more at that. Maximus, I honestly think most wearables are a little bit overhyped. Yeah, I don't think you're wearing one. You have a nice watch. Thank you. It has no battery technology, my anti-tech watch. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 01:54:32 Yeah, interesting thing as a psychologist, I think it actually causes anxiety in a lot of people, right? A lot of these sleep wearables, you know, because they look at it and you're like, oh, my, my whoop score is not 100. Now I'm going to be sleep deprived. Oh, take trend. Exactly. Right. To John, his entire life is just signaling, like, fake trend. I got a 98 on 8 sleep, and I immediately Googled like, D-Ball plus Anavar plus Tren.
Starting point is 01:55:02 plus massive needle this big. There you yeah. That's what I want. Your sleep score is going to go to about 20. I know. Do not do any of this. But yeah, I mean, look, it can be helpful. We use tracking really when we want to see if an intervention is making a difference.
Starting point is 01:55:15 So a lot of our clients actually, when they're using oxytocin, because we've published a study showing that it enhances sleep quality, extends sleep by about 25 minutes, sleep duration on average. They'll look at their aura or their whoop scores, and then they'll notice in improvements in, let's say, REM or deep sleep. And this is kind of, I think, you know, beyond sort of randomized control trials, the top of the evidence-based hierarchy is running really a randomized control trial of one. And so you can look at your own data. And then if you see, you know, if you do sort of an ABA test where you don't do the intervention, you add oxytocin, and then you come off of it.
Starting point is 01:55:48 And during that period of time, that B portion, when you were taking the intervention, you're clearly sleeping better. Your sleep duration is better. Your deep sleep at REM are better. It gives you a pretty positive personal indication that this treatment is working for you. You didn't mention across any of those five categories, like the ADHD meds that they feel like have been popular in Silicon Valley for decades across riddlin, Adderall, Vivance, and modafinil. There's a few others that people take occasionally. Some of them are prescribed. What is your overall thesis on that? That one feels, it's always felt like a Faustian bargain, but it's your take.
Starting point is 01:56:22 Exactly. And I think it is. And I'm especially as a former psychiatry professor, I'm incredibly conservative about. things that are psychoactive and specifically work on the neurotransmitters. Sure, it doesn't come from a biomarker. It's not like I get a blood test and says, oh, yeah, you're low in. No. There's no great blood marker for dopamine, for instance. Sure. Okay. And the diagnosis of ADHD is problematic. Most people aren't doing a full neuropsychological examination to get a true diagnosis. Yeah. It's a little over-diagnosed these days. One of the questions on the survey was like, did you lose things as a kid? And I was like,
Starting point is 01:56:59 Who has never lost anything as a child? Like, everyone loses their sweatshirt when they go to school in the morning and then it gets hot. You take the sweatshirt off, you lose it? Like, this is not like... I never, I never did. You never did? Okay, well, then... Fair enough.
Starting point is 01:57:11 Yeah, and there's a lot of folks who may have... There's kind of a notion that people outgrow ADHD in adulthood. Really, what may be happening is they're learning to behaviorally compensate the routines and patterns. But anyway, obviously, if you have true clinically diagnosed, properly diagnosed ADHD, prescription stimulants can be like riddlin, Adderall, the various amphetamines can be life-changing in that. Despite the risks and trade-offs, obviously if it lets you function and keep a job,
Starting point is 01:57:40 that cost-benefit, it's going to be beneficial. From a performance enhancement perspective, I've been very public in companies like cerebral we're doing the wrong thing by shilling Adderall on TikTok. We won't prescribe it because it's addictive. And we don't prescribe things that are addictive because I think, to your point, it is a Faustian bargain, and there's significant tradeoffs in doing so.
Starting point is 01:57:59 So I didn't mention focus as part of those five. I do think there are things. Well, it feels like your philosophy is that focus comes from the other areas. Yeah. If you're balanced everywhere else. Well, in 2019, I popularized dopamine fasting as a behavioral way of improving focus. The main thing that's actually messing with people's focus for the majority of people is not ADHD, but digital distraction.
Starting point is 01:58:21 Yeah. Right. So everyone's distracted by social media, gaming, gambling, gambling, shopping. I do a dopamine fast every single day, like eight, at least six hours. Yeah, that's fantastic. Usually from like 11 p.m. to 5 a.m. So, yeah, I mean, you know, you know in China actually, literally from 11 p.m. I think to like six or seven. You just can't access it, right?
Starting point is 01:58:40 You cannot act. Computer game manufacturers are legally required to take the servers to do it. And so there's something there, right, that's like institutionalized dopamine fasting. Yeah, yeah, that's cool. That's interesting. How often do you do full blood panels and advice? By 2035, how often do you think the average kind of American will be doing a blood panel? Yeah. I mean, assuming right now the average person does it if they're sick and they're having an issue
Starting point is 01:59:09 that's starting to change. But what's your protocol now? Yeah, it's a great question. Unfortunately, a lot of people don't even have a primary care physician. I mean, I think the standard recommendation and one that I will continue to espouse is everyone should get an annual physical every year and have a relationship with a doctor, ideally, you know, a good primary care physician. Unfortunately, because of the health insurance situation that we have, it's tied to employers,
Starting point is 01:59:30 a lot of people are freelancers. They don't have health insurance, or if they do, it's like a minimal amount through the open market. They don't have that. So that's problem number one. Problem number two is the blood test that you get through your primary care is very sparse. So I'll tell you a funny story. So, you know, being at Omata and literally being in the diabetes industry, I never had my blood sugar
Starting point is 01:59:51 level check. And when I brought it up with my doctor, like, you're young and healthy. you don't need to check your blood sugar. And I was like, my dad has type two diabetes. I want to check, you know, and just make sure I don't develop it. But that's the mentality. Similarly, it's not routine to measure your testosterone levels or get a hormone panel unless you are like incredibly low energy and symptomatic.
Starting point is 02:00:09 And your doctor would be concerned. They don't think it's sort of necessary. And so the unfortunate thing is going through the traditional health care system because they really want to minimize the cost associated with the panel, you're not going to get a good comprehensive blood test done. Right? So through Maximus, we have a comprehensive test. It costs $199.99.
Starting point is 02:00:25 You can get 110 biomarkers measured. True unique biomarkers is a couple of companies out there that repeat tests every six months and they're not unique biomarkers. So that will give you an assessment of, you know, standard CBC, CMP, your lipids, your hormones, your thyroid, all the things that you need to know. And obviously now with AI, you can, you know, throw that into an AI and identify areas that are problematic. and obviously if you have a clinic or a good PCP that can work with you, it can help optimize it. Like a good example of this is almost everyone is vitamin D deficient because we just don't get enough sunlight. It's the easiest thing to fix. You can take it a multivitamin like the building blocks that we produce and we do before and after lab testing so that after a couple months you can get into an optimal range and it's going to enhance your mood,
Starting point is 02:01:09 your sleep, 100 different biological functions. We've got to pop the top on this ultra down, let the sun in, get the vitamin D going. We actually want to eventually get to natural light. It would be so good. We got to make it happen. Pleasure. Anyway, thank you so much for stopping by. Have a great rest of your day.
Starting point is 02:01:26 And we will talk to you soon. And I will tell everyone about Vanta, automate compliance and security. Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform. And I will tell you also about Graphite, code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. And without further ado,
Starting point is 02:01:43 we will kick off our lightning round, the Lambda Light. lightning round, we will go to the cloud. Hopefully, we'll see. The Lambda lightning round begins now with Chris from AdQuick. One of our favorite people. TBPN royalty, as the chat likes to say, let's bring Chris in to the TVPN Ultrium. Chris, how are you doing?
Starting point is 02:02:03 Great to see you. There is. Is that a TVPN green suit? This is a beautiful jacket. That is a fantastic jacket. I like the liner too. Anyway. Yeah, picked it up in London, Charles Turrett.
Starting point is 02:02:15 No way. Very cool. Couldn't miss out on the opportunity to get dripped out with my fellow technology brothers. I love it. I love it. Reintroduce the company and sort of explain the shape of the business these days and then take us into the news. For anyone that hasn't heard 1,000 AdQuick reads on our show. I think it was 250 last year or something like that. Probably more. Yeah. So Adquick's building the infrastructure for real world advertising. So out of home. So when you think about it over the last 30 years, every dollar of every ad spend has gone to doing one thing, reaching human beings with a message,
Starting point is 02:02:57 and that's primarily been done through digital channels. Cookies, pixels, real-time bidding, programmatic. It's all digital. But what they did forget is that people are outside. People are constantly getting exposed to an advertising medium. And this one hasn't been optimized. It hasn't been architectated with technology. And so, you know, the big players like Google, Amazon, the trade desk, none of them have cracked the nut that is out-of-home advertising.
Starting point is 02:03:29 And, you know, we're building the pipes and the plumbing for it. Yeah. So there's a lot of interaction with the physical world. At a certain point, someone has to physically print the billboard, put it up, like tape it down, tie it down, do whatever. and you are able to abstract that and then serve a company with a thing that looks like a, you know, more traditional digital platform, right? Yeah, absolutely.
Starting point is 02:03:53 And most importantly, is proving that the medium works. So we now live in an age where, you know, you don't get investment in advertising unless you could prove that it works. And so we pioneered the measurement and the analytics. So if you get exposed to an out-of-home ad and then to subsequently do something, online in an app, go into a store. We can attribute that to the exposure and then model it out with all the rest of your channels. So it's out of home advertising made easy and measurable. That's what I'm getting from this. That's right. But take us through the more recent news. What's going on
Starting point is 02:04:29 with the business? Yeah. So there's three big players in the space in the United States. It's a $10 billion dollar market, $2 billion roughly, is sold by outfront media. And you'll see their billboards and their transit in New York, Los Angeles, and all the major metros. And to be clear, they own the physical real estate. They own the physical, like, the structure that the billboard goes on. That's part of their business. Or just the rights.
Starting point is 02:04:58 Or the rights? The rights and the structures. Got it. Okay. Right. Yeah. And so this is an organization that's like 2,000 employees. employees, a thousand sellers all regionally distributed.
Starting point is 02:05:10 And they've been selling this medium very much like, you know, real estate agents have prior to like your open door, your Zillow, so on and so forth. And for the first time ever, they're going to have world-class technology to support their sales efforts across these thousand sellers. And then they'll be also using our audiences to find the best fit for their inventory against an audience and then also measure the success for their clients. So, yeah, walk me through the measurement problem because on my drive to work every day, I drive through Hollywood, I see so many billboard ads for movies.
Starting point is 02:05:53 And whenever I buy tickets, I wind up going on Fandango, and there's a huge disconnect there. I don't know that I've gotten a survey, but with the right data, you could probably see that I was in this area or I purchased something on a credit card panel in this area and I might have been exposed to that billboard. Like, I could imagine how you could piece that together that I went to this particular movie because I saw this billboard. I've been seeing billboards for the Project Hail Mary and we are actually going. And the billboards should get some of that attribution.
Starting point is 02:06:25 But other than hearing me say it right now, I don't know how you would puzzle that together. So what is the process these days? Sure. Sure. So your weather app doesn't make money by telling you it's going to rain. Okay. We buy up all the highest quality mobile traffic data. Sure. We pipe 7 billion pings into our platform every single day.
Starting point is 02:06:45 Yeah. So we know where you are, what time you're at, what direction you're heading at, what speed you're heading at, and all these things. Sure. And then we use that to basically identify when the mobile device is inside of a geo-fence that we have geo-fenced, all of the inventory in the platform. Got it. And then we count that as an exposure. Sure. We then map the exposure to a pixel on the website and an SDK in an app.
Starting point is 02:07:13 Sure. Or we also, in the case of brick and mortar, will actually geofence the store location. Yeah. And so we can kind of connect the dots that way. Yeah. That makes a ton of sense. Breakdown kind of trends in the SF out of home market. Like how is kind of all the AI funding boom?
Starting point is 02:07:31 Yeah. Does a billboard up in SF cost like 10 times as much as anywhere else? Like, what's the ratio at least? Yeah, I mean, it's after, you know, we had that, 2023, we had the software recession, 24. We started to see things come pick back up. And in the last 12 months, it's gone gangbusters for the AI companies. To answer your question, yeah, the prices are some of the most expensive in the market. But, you know, some of our customers are some of the leading AI companies, Finn being one of them.
Starting point is 02:08:06 11 labs we've done campaigns for. And so, yeah, you're starting to see AI companies use this channel to, you know, kind of break through the clutter of digital. What's the most underrated out-of-home form factor in your view? If you're B2B, I really like account-based market. or account-based. So basically you take all of your HQs for your target accounts, you can put them in the map, and then you buy up all the inventory surrounding them. That's like bus stops, you know, basically like just flood the zone in a like two-block radius kind of thing. Yeah, exactly. And I don't know if you recall, but say like maybe like five or six years ago,
Starting point is 02:08:53 the founders of Brex took over all of San Francisco, most of San Francisco being their target market. and I think they spent like half a million bucks and, you know, customer acquisition. Yeah, I think people haven't fully processed that like there seems to be like increasing, like, returns as you spend more on out of home, which is that like, you know, if you spend 50 grand on a campaign somewhere around L.A., you're going to have, you know, some effect. but if you spend, you know, dramatically more than that, like an order of magnitude, it seems like you really like
Starting point is 02:09:31 breakthrough in a different way. It's funny, Sam, Sam Blonde, who did that original campaign. He's back with his new, a new company and taking the same approach, you know, heavy, heavy, heavy out-at-home spend.
Starting point is 02:09:47 Yeah, some of our teammates in San Francisco were saying that Monaco's up and down the 101. I think they bought, bought like 60, 60 or 70 billboards. So they're making their presence felt. Yeah, he told me about that before we had them on the show. And I was like, that is such a bold way to introduce your company. But it really does break through.
Starting point is 02:10:06 I've seen photos of it. And if you're there, you'll see. What about on the supply side, how heavy are the restrictions on bringing on new out-of-home supply is, I'm assuming, obviously, city by city? Yeah, I mean, I'd love to put like, you know, a massive billboard on my house. But no, I just think in general. Hey, honey, I sold the front yard.
Starting point is 02:10:31 I sold the roof. Hey, our mortgage is going to be half the price now. That's amazing. Yeah, so in terms of limitations, in 1965, the Highway Beautification Act was passed. So that kind of restricts how many... That required every highway to have ten times. Okay.
Starting point is 02:10:50 Yeah, so basically there's only a certain subset that you could put near highways, but you're starting to see all these other formats kind of come about. You know, there's folks putting ads on trucks. Yeah. There's folks wrapping Ubers. They're putting ads inside of Ubers.
Starting point is 02:11:07 They're putting, pulling planes in the sky, which is kind of old school. Yeah, skywriting. And then drone shows are the new big thing, and I expect to see a lot more of those in the future. I know. I'm surprised it hasn't been utilized. The only other thing is,
Starting point is 02:11:23 Can you put a blimp on ad quick? Like I've given this advice to enough companies now, and they haven't done it. I feel like. But just like a flying a blimp, like a Goodyear blimp over SF for... Goodyear's just cornered the market. I think that they wouldn't, I don't think Goodyear would sell their blimp for billion dollars. I think there's just their greatest capital asset they have. Because you could monetize that thing so well flying around San Francisco.
Starting point is 02:11:49 You know, we do have 2,000 media owners on the platform. And I'm pretty sure. sure that might fit the bill. That'd be amazing. Love it. Amazing. Well, congratulations on the partnership. And thank you again for being our, you had to have been the second, the second advertiser
Starting point is 02:12:07 right after ramp to back us. And we'll never forget your support. We appreciate you, Chris. Thanks so much. The whole team. We'll talk to you. Great to see you. Goodbye.
Starting point is 02:12:16 Let me tell you about Railway. Railway is the all-in-one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agent to deploy web app, servers, databases, and more. Well, Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring, and security. And let me also tell you about Labelbox, RL environments, voice, robotics, e-vals, and expert human data. Labelboxes is the data factory behind the world's leading AI teams. I'm expecting our next guest to be duct-tape to his chair. Oh, is he? Is he? He was duct-taker. Oh, he's free. He got free.
Starting point is 02:12:43 I'm alive. Okay, introduce yourself, introduce the company, and then explain the duct tape stunt. I love it. Co-founder CEO of Hanover Park. Think about us as financial infrastructure. to power investment firms, private equity, venture funds. The most unsexy industry in the planet, we're now making sexy. Thank you. Thank you for your sense. Yeah, so I was duct taped to a chair, and I announced a blooper that I tagged Jordan and you guys in.
Starting point is 02:13:09 I was like, okay, how can we make the most boring industry in the world sexy? And that was obviously replacing human duct tape. And so, yeah, I'm pumped to do it. We launched our announcer's here today today. Okay, so the metaphor is there's a lot of human duct tape inside these funds, piecing different puzzle pieces together to manage the financial assets and LP relationships, and you make all of that go away, correct? 100%.
Starting point is 02:13:32 And also, like, I don't know, I've been saying this for two years, like B2B SaaS is dead. We want to sell outcomes, not tools. And so tools are things that are a bunch of duct tape around with humans and software, and we're like, we're going to replace the human-heavy services business out there, too. Sure, sure, sure. What is the key moment for an allocator? using the platform that really wows them or clicks. When you want to make a $100 million follow-on decision and you have to ping your CFO and say,
Starting point is 02:14:03 hey, can you pull together the data that we haven't had in real time for the past two months? Can you figure this out? AI agents solve the problem by getting you real-time data and then help you make those decisions. And so we're pulling in data from granola notes. We're pulling in data from emails and board decks. We're pulling in data from all the boring accounting data on those positions. And so people are like, oh, my God, I can finally make a decision in a real time without waiting a bunch of days. Okay, so there might be a whole bunch of decks from all the different investments and all the different companies that have various ARR figures and growth rates, but they're sort of buried.
Starting point is 02:14:39 Hanover can go in there, get that data, put it in some sort of centralized database and then visualize that or maybe even help with Marx. Is that something you do? Or is there still a human in the loop for that? Yeah, even more importantly, we think there's a world where you don't even need to log in a Hanover Park. We're going to expose all the data via MCP server. And so we launched that where people are accessing it via Claude, Co-work, and via GBT, etc. Sure.
Starting point is 02:15:04 And so that's been a key piece. I would say for like GPs, whereas CFOs are going to use us for things like capital calls, distributions, financial reporting to LPs, etc. Got it, got it. So interesting. So if somebody's on like the enterprise OpenAI plan or something, thing. Do they have to integrate this themselves, or is that just like an off the shelf plug in? And then, and then if they want to actually get this into like a deck, what's the
Starting point is 02:15:32 current stack to get that information? They would be exporting it, like transforming it over in their LLM tool of choice and then taking it to the LPs. It's actually even worse. You would have to email some human called your fund admin and say, hey, can you pull that data that's locked in some random tool you don't give me access to. You then get a spreadsheet. You then put that into another tool. You then put that into Claude or GPT, et cetera. And so a lot of the value prop here is you're going to pay a fund admin anyway to do this
Starting point is 02:16:02 boring financial reporting. LPs demand this from a third party. And so instead of having that data locked away, we can at least give you access to it. And then you can put it into Claude and other things. Got it. How big is the market? This is a market that, like, you know, compared to, like, SMB. There will never be too much venture capital
Starting point is 02:16:21 of Georgia. I know, I know, I know. And we're trying to get more people to be brave enough to enter private equity. Okay. Yeah. But yeah, so I'm assuming with venture funds, private equity, all this stuff, you know, you have to kind of ignore like individual SBVs and entities. But I'm assuming
Starting point is 02:16:43 you can kind of clock pretty precisely like what the, how big the market is and then you've got to go and try to get as much of it as you can. Yes, there's a $100 trillion of global assets, and there's a $20 billion public company. I know, but isn't that like somewhat of a... Are you going to get PIMCO at some point, right? It's, yeah, it's like hedge funds, right? You have like private equity funds, real estate, private equity, venture, etc.
Starting point is 02:17:06 Like, SSNC is a public company today. They have like $5 billion of revenue, Citco as $5 billion of revenue, right? So there's a bunch of like these massive dinosaur companies that exist, and it's really like venture. in private equity is just the start. Okay. Okay.
Starting point is 02:17:20 And so within, I mean, venture also scales from $15 million fund to $15 billion fund. Like, I imagine that there's some tradeoffs where the bigger you go, the bigger the dollars, but also the bigger integration, the more requests versus somebody who's just starting a, you know, a new fund. They don't have any software, so it's super easy to get off the ground. Have you been picking one or the other as like a beachhead market? or have you just been doing like whoever you know? Yeah, you'd be surprised.
Starting point is 02:17:51 The bigger it is, the easier it is to differentiate actually. Okay. And so a lot of these bigger funds, they've been like running around with players like Essison C, which I call like the Evil Empire, which is basically like you're using them and all of your data is kind of trapped. Whereas like an early stage venture fund that's just getting off the ground, things are pretty clean and pretty easy. And so we've actually focused on like mid-market enterprise to think like 250 million plus
Starting point is 02:18:15 in assets. venture in private equity to start at least. Do you do any work on the, is it all equity or are you starting to do stuff in private credit or private or like public debt or any of the other asset classes or are you just purely in alternatives? Purely in alternatives today. I would say like six to 12 months from now obviously focused on expanding into things like private credit.
Starting point is 02:18:38 Obviously big opportunity to be in here in New York. I've been saying this for a long time. Favorite sponsor, Ramp. It's like Stripe for Payments, Rant for Expenses, Hanover Park for Inval, for investments. Love it. And so that's kind of the, the,
Starting point is 02:18:48 the, have you had any customers just ask you to just handle just all the actual investment decision making? They're like,
Starting point is 02:18:55 I'll just put money in a box and then you, you deploy it, let me know how it goes. Talk to my LPs too. I don't want to talk to, I don't want to talk to them anymore. Talk to founders or LPs.
Starting point is 02:19:06 Not yet. I think it's been funny. It's like a lot of LPs that we talk to are like, I keep, you know, my venture funds are investing in AI, but they're back in middle offices,
Starting point is 02:19:15 is run by the anti-AI. And so this idea of like we're investing in it, we might as well move to it as well. It's been pretty exciting for people. But I think long term, it's like unlocking alpha for the investment firm based on all the unsexy financial day that we have.
Starting point is 02:19:28 Could be interesting. But we've got a lot of work to do to get there. Unpack a little bit of more of like the dream unsexy proprietary data set. Is that look like pitch book or crunch-based data? There's a lot of different data sources that venture capitalists go to. throughout diligence is do you want to be a conduit to those sources or do you imagine that the
Starting point is 02:19:51 LLM tools that venture capitalists are using will interface with those separately and just do the joins in whatever work session is happening? Yeah, it's actually not really crunch-based pitchbook. It's really like the unsexy financial cash flow data. So like give me the cash flows from every LP through history and how that flows into our next cap call or next distribution or our next you know, financial statements. So it's actually that data, which is the data that's mostly trapped in these fund admins. I think crunch-based and pitchbook access will get commoditized. Those will go into the underlying models. And I don't think we want to play that game. Yeah. Talk about the overall health of the venture capital market. I feel like you're in a unique
Starting point is 02:20:29 position. There's been these like sort of warring narratives. We joked earlier, like $110 billion raised, but that was open AI. There's a lot of, there's like sort of a crunch in case-shaped recovery, maybe in venture capital. There's a variety of mega funds that are scaling up. Like, what are you seeing when someone just asks you from the outside, maybe they're a public markets investor? And they say, like, how is, how is venture capital doing these days? We're actually seeing a lot of haves and have-nots. It's a very stark bifurcation because when you start a fund, you basically sign a lawyer and a fund admin. And so we see from inception of how your raise is going. And so literally it's, there's people that are raising in three, six, nine, ten weeks.
Starting point is 02:21:11 for a first fund, which is crazy fast, versus six to 12 months. And then there are people who are never raising. And so I think it's the people that are spinning out of a lot of the major funds that are targeting, call it $100 to $200 million fund ones, are having actually an easier time from some of the emerging managers that are focused on like $25 million fund ones. And so it's a pretty big bifurcation there.
Starting point is 02:21:31 How are you processing this new holding company roll-up firm? It looks like a private equity firm, but it also sort of looks like a startup. We've had a couple of these founders on where... Yeah, those probably aren't clients because they just get a bunch of money. Yeah, would they be or could they be in the future? How do you think about that? It's actually funny.
Starting point is 02:21:53 We've had a lot of these folks reach out because fund admin and like accounting services more broadly, right? Think about us as a subset of that because we're doing financial accounting reporting for investment firms. That is a ripe industry for roll up. And so people have been like, oh my God, should this be a fund admin roll up as an idea in terms of article buyout? What we've realized is like if you just toss agents, the word agents on top of any accounting data, it doesn't really do anything. Having like the core ERP for the fund and the system of record that we had to build from day zero is actually like way more important than just saying like AI solves all our problems, which I don't think does quite yet. Yeah. Have you had to do any like fine tuning on your own data or your system or are the agents sort of able to, you know, find. their way around your system pretty quickly.
Starting point is 02:22:41 Like, did you need to build your own MCB servers or your own CLIs for these things? We were just talking about this with DoorDash. There's, like, demand for a door dash CLI now. And it's funny, but it makes a lot of sense in the context of agentic engineering. Yeah, we've actually to build our own little AI fund account, and I call it, which is doing simple things like AI cash reconciliation. When you get an email from someone to make a decision, how does a human do that? It's actually client-specific, different clients have different preferences. and so almost how do you build that like AI fund accountants?
Starting point is 02:23:09 So we're using a bunch of the models off the shelf to do that as well. And then we're doing some fine tuning on top. Yeah. Does that look like a like a dot MD file, like a skill? Or is this more of like a full harness that's actually, you know, written like a whole bunch of code that you've written? Like how do you see that system growing as you develop more core capabilities? Yeah.
Starting point is 02:23:32 I think one. So there's a bunch of different ways that we sliced it. But like for something like migration, is how do I get the most complex financial data in the entire world from one system to another, that's a lot about building harnesses and building skills in and around the core underlying model providers to say, this is the weird messy financial data from pick your massive investment firm. Here's how we need to think about this. And then for things like dock processing a little bit differently.
Starting point is 02:23:55 So it depends on the workflow. Yeah. Tell me a little bit about the progress of the company. Like where are you based? How big is the firm? How are you growing? Where do you see this going over the next couple of years? Yep.
Starting point is 02:24:04 So two years old, raised $31 million. Obviously, today we're announcing a $27 million Series A led by merchants. We went, oh, oh, there we go. We did it. We're just getting started, though. We're just getting started. We're just getting started. What are you talking about?
Starting point is 02:24:23 I love it. I love it. We went one to 15 billion in assets in the past 12 months. We 15 axed. We've had a lot of excitement from folks. I actually, I was joking with the team. I said, guys, this is a top. point one percent problem. Having unlimited demand and people excited, now let's go make them
Starting point is 02:24:41 raving fans, which is our goal for 26. And so not cursor, but we're focused on, you know, keeping our heads down and executing. That's great. That's great. Well, thank you so much for taking the time. I love it, dude. It's awesome to see your your progress. Yeah, I mean, I'm calling you for years. Yeah, just the absolute thread grinder from the 2021 era. Just ran it up. Yeah. And you just can so I'm sure you angel invested, right? I did. I did. I did. miss this one. What happened, guys? Saw the one got in. You didn't get in. This is, this is the nature of the show. This is why we're podcasting
Starting point is 02:25:11 because we, we, we see people like you all the time and we just miss everything. So, back to the show. I don't. Yeah, Jordy makes a lot of good investments. I just don't, I just don't do it. Anyway, thank you so much for taking the time. Great to see you, Chris. We'll talk to you. See you, Chris. Let me tell you about Apploven.
Starting point is 02:25:27 Profitable advertising made easy with axon.com.com. Get access to over one billion daily active users and grow your business today. And let me also tell you about Phantom Cash, fund your wallet without without exchanges or middlemen, and spend with the Phantom card. And our next guest is in
Starting point is 02:25:42 the restroom waiting around. What's going on? How are you doing? Good afternoon. Good afternoon. Good to see you. Great to see you. Please kick us off with an introduction on yourself and the company. I'm Georgios. I drive the engineering
Starting point is 02:25:57 team at the Temple Project. Temple is a payments first blockchain that we started developing in August. Today, we just launched the Tempo Mainnet live in production. Alongside it, we also launched the machine payments protocol, which is our answer to how agents should pay. If you think about it, agents are great at searching the web. We use agents all the time in our development process, my AMP, Cloud Code, Code, whatever it is for developing. But we find it very hard to make them pay. So we develop
Starting point is 02:26:29 the solution for it. And I'm excited to talk about both. So you have MCP. A lot of people were saying, like why does an MCP have a payment spec already baked into it? There's this whole debate about HGP maybe having a payment spec in it, about 20 years ago or something. MPP solves that. But is MPP like a subset or a superset of MCP? Or is it a completely different spec? Is there any relationship between the two technologies?
Starting point is 02:26:57 Very complimentary. You should think of MCP as a way to talk to an API that has, has been designed to be baked into the agent harnesses. And MPP is a way that you can payment gate an MCP. So imagine that you have your service, you have written an MCP for it, but you actually want to make that a paid service. Maybe, for example, on TPPN, you guys do great prep
Starting point is 02:27:20 for all the people that you work with. Hey, well, what if you just added a paid API to that? Sometimes. Yeah. Awesome. So yeah, I think anybody that hasn't been living under a data center has heard of the potential for agents to use stable coins and blockchain technology generally for various services. You guys are working with a bunch of
Starting point is 02:27:48 really cool companies. Like what kind of use cases are you trying to guide your design partners towards enabling? I think the most exciting use cases they have to do around commerce. basically there's a lot of like very interesting work around hey I'm on chat gbt my chat gbt is browsing around but hey it wants to buy things for me I think that's one of the things that is unlocking the other thing to think about is that your chat gpt is again browsing the web but it hits a paywall you wanted to be able to instead of saying hey I can access this information you wanted to instead be able to say actually pay 30 cents and you can actually access this wonderful article that would have been paywold, which might improve your research queries by, say, 30% or something.
Starting point is 02:28:37 So in that case, you'd be going to, like, so is there a plan to go to publishers, people that do have paywalled content and try to get them to enable MPP? Is that the idea? Totally. I think that would be awesome. And the other thing that I think is just happening already is that, again, envision that people these days don't have an attention span, and people these days also don't want to click buttons around. They just want to tell their, again, their AI app to do things for them.
Starting point is 02:29:08 I think what we've been seeing ourselves as developers is instead of me going to, say, CloudFerve or sell and saying, hey, login, add billing information, get API key, pull it back to my terminal, or go to 11 labs and say, hey, do me this text-to-speech thing or any kind of like API-gated service that exists today. Instead, I can just say, hey, agent, here's fly. five bucks, go and figure it out for me. And actually, he doesn't just do it in one service. It does it on many services. You can imagine it waterfall, of queries. You can tell it, hey, go search the web, pull all this data, translate it with this API, and then voice to speech it,
Starting point is 02:29:46 text to speech it with some other API, and then upload it onto a website and email me. That link of the website, all one shot. Yeah, I was going to ask more on the technical side. there's been a lot of protocols created blockchains over the last, you know, decade. You've seen pretty much all of them. I'm assuming this is your Mona Lisa, you know, taking all the different learnings from the different blockchains and trying to build the perfect product experience this time around. What kind of like technical decisions did you and the team make for this kind of use case?
Starting point is 02:30:27 Yeah. So the temple blockchain is itself. optimized for payments, which means that it's really fast. It has very high throughput and very low latency. Our block times are less than a second, which means that you hit. And before the spinner even finishes spinning, you have a confirmation back, which is what any normal person would expect from a payments experience. But in addition to these, the innovation we've done on the MPP side is a feature called sessions, where normally you would need to, let's say you're talking to, I don't know, let's say again, the Open AI API.
Starting point is 02:31:03 And if you were to do payments, if you were to pay for every query that you're doing, you will need to wait for the blockchain to like conferring your transaction. You will need to pay a fee anytime you do your transaction. And that these days, maybe you can do 10,000 transactions per second or something. But really for the agentic web, and it does seem that everyone will be making a lot more API calls than they were doing before. we need to scale up to hundreds of thousands, millions, if not billions of payments per second, just to put it, the analogy would be that instead of thinking of financial transactions,
Starting point is 02:31:37 we should be thinking about API calls per second. So we developed this feature called Sessions, which let you really go at API scale by bypassing the blockchain and thinking about it like going to opening a tab, where you say, hey, I'm opening my tab, and then every time on your notebook on the side, you write what are the updates? And then only at the end when you want to settle, do you pay, which amortizes the cost of a very expensive otherwise operation. If you want to do a thousand or a million API requests, just two, the opening and the closing. Yeah, that makes sense.
Starting point is 02:32:12 How are you dealing with the just general perception that there's always a risk that AI is hallucinate. And so maybe, you know, you don't want to have an, you don't want to give an agent the ability to go spend an unlimited amount of money. Maybe you want a transaction to be reversible. There's this joke about like giving OpenClaw your credit card that seems irresponsible. But in some ways, I would maybe rather give a credit card to an agent than, you know, a crypto wallet that if it sends us to the wrong address, it's gone forever. not really reversible. How are you thinking about handling those long-tail errors that can be catastrophic? That's an awesome question because I absolutely have in the past lost money using systems that others have built where you just give your agent money and then the agent goes and spends it
Starting point is 02:33:13 without realizing how much access it has. We developed a feature called access keys, which basically is your standard card permissions. It's a bit more programmable, but you should think of it as limits, spend limits. And you can program that. So whenever you open a tempo session, you can just authorize the agent and say, you can only spend up to $10. Or you can tell it, hey, you can only spend up to $10 an hour or $1 a second. So it lets you have any kind of granularity on the assets you're accessing,
Starting point is 02:33:47 the functions that you can call or the API calls you can make, and also on their frequency that these budgets can be applied. Yeah. How do you think about getting the long tail of publishers onto some sort of agentic payment rail? Hopefully they're already on Stripe, otherwise they've been living under a data center. Yes, I'm just thinking about like the actual...
Starting point is 02:34:12 That's like that to me, that's like why when I saw the launch and heard about the project previously, I was like, okay, Stripe already has. a long tail of merchants, if they can easily enable MPP, then you're able to kind of bootstrap a network. Yeah, I'm just thinking like if you have a blog and you put AdWords on it, you got a stream of payments from Google. Whenever you would show page, they'd show an ad, they'd auction that ad.
Starting point is 02:34:39 They would send you maybe 50% of what they made on that ad, and that would be paid monthly. And they were able to onboard sort of the long tail. if you, it feels like the opportunity here is like this many to many relationship, but I'm wondering about like, is that onboarding going to happen on tempo directly? Is that going to be decentralized? Or would we expect the big labs like Open Ayanthropic to say, okay, now we have opt-in for anyone who wants to get paid when one of our LLMs, one of our agents hits your website, and we will use Tempo as the payment rail? So there's a few questions here. So I think what you just said is true and will happen. It's already happening. So Anthropic or Open AI or both already have a service where you plug in only to Open AI
Starting point is 02:35:32 and then you can just have a billing relationship with all of the integrated partners that they have. Sure. So that will happen for sure. On the Tempo side, the Machine Payments Protocol, MPP, which is what we launched this morning, it is co-built with Stripe. We co-authored it, and it's payments method agnostic. So every merchant that is on Stripe, and if you go to the Stripe Docks, MPP is already there, and it's already an option you can enable.
Starting point is 02:35:59 Every merchant could turn that on, and their API and their website could become MPP enabled, which would cover a part of that tail, if not, you know, that part that you just said. Sure. So is this a bet on model commoditization and local compute? because if there's consolidation and the vast majority of LLM traffic is coming from like a single lab or two labs or three labs. Yeah, winner, it's like the Wall Street Journal does get scraped by Open AI, but they have a deal between Open AI, the corporation and News Corp, the corporation, and they sat down in a boardroom and they said, hey, this is the value, like send me the check and pay, you know, via invoice. And it's a very different relationship. But for these long tail, the long tail with Google can pay a ton of small bloggers who set up their own websites on whatever.
Starting point is 02:36:51 They can code up, you know, their own blog. But is this maybe a solution to like if models commoditize and you're seeing LM traffic come from all different sources, then you need your agent to go and make the payment? I think for the publisher use case, I think that totally could be the case. The thing that we're the most excited about, the machine payments world and developers, right now, there's just a tailwind right now where with AI, more and more people are building things. Everybody wants to make paid APIs
Starting point is 02:37:25 or everybody wants to monetize their knowledge base, their API. And these are just not things that, it just means that the tail is just going to be so long, that it's not something that I expect will be realistically captured by the labs in that way. Just because any random dev can spin up an API that could be very, very, very valuable. And I think that the lowest friction way to access and monitor is that API will be via MPP on tempo.
Starting point is 02:37:50 Yeah, I think that makes a ton of sense. I've run into this issue where I've gone to a particular LLM and said, I want you to take this video, convert it to an MP3, then transcribe it, then, you know, transform that. And it can do, and it's like, oh, I need a tool for that. Like, why don't you download the file? You're like, no, you're a computer. open up quick time and turn it into an MVP3. I was like,
Starting point is 02:38:12 no, no, I want you to do that. And if you Google it, like, you know, MP4 or M4A2 transcript, like there's a tool out there that does it.
Starting point is 02:38:20 It's, I don't know if it has an API. It probably should. It probably is an API out there for a lot of these things. It might have malware in it. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 02:38:26 A lot of them are like websites that have a million ads and stuff. It's way better if it just came back to me and be like, hey, that's going to be 15 cents and I've already approved that or, hey, it's going to be 50 bucks to do what you want because you asked me to go generate
Starting point is 02:38:39 a whole bunch of AI video and crazy stuff. And, you know, that was a big request. Is this in budget? And I can be like, yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. And this is right now supported. There's the MPP services registry where if you literally go tell your agent, hey, build me an image, convert this to whatever you want.
Starting point is 02:38:56 There are APIs already integrated, which let you do all of these things without ever leaving your agent, without getting every place like, you know, install your own API tool. Yeah. So totally. Yeah. Explain if I'm a developer and I'm using something like Codex and I want to effectively enable the agent to buy different services with MPP. What is the process for what is like the recommended process for like actually giving it funds, everything on that side? So this is the use case that we've been optimizing for.
Starting point is 02:39:34 It is the exact use case because we're developers and we actually dog with this experience. every day. The process is extremely simple. You tell it, install the Tempo skill. The Tempo skill is available on Tempo website. You just paste the link in your agent. And then once you tell it to install the Tempo skill bootstraps the whole process and says, install the Tempo command line interface from your codex. And then onboard the user. The user's browser opens, the user face IDs, or touch IDs if you're on your MacBook. And then the user just gets onboarded via Apple Pay, if they have an Apple card, or via another crypto, if they have stable coins, or right now we provide some referral codes to make onboarding easier for people.
Starting point is 02:40:15 Very cool. And then you're in. Then you're logged in and you can go crazy. And then you could ask the agent, like, add more funds. You know, I need to add more funds. Absolutely. Yeah. Absolutely.
Starting point is 02:40:24 And so if you hit it, if you hit some type of paywalled experience or paywall API, it'll just tell you, I need access to more funds. And then you can just enable it. That's very cool. Absolutely. Amazing. Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us. Congratulations to launch.
Starting point is 02:40:40 We'll talk to you soon. Thank you. Great to meet you. Have a good day. Have a good way. Let me tell you about the New York Stock Exchange. Want to change the world. Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange.
Starting point is 02:40:51 And let me also tell you about Gusto. The unified platform for payroll benefits and HR built to evolve with modern, small, and medium-sized businesses. And without further ado, we have Matt Wong from Paradigm in the TVP and Ultram. How are you doing? Matt. What's going on? What's up, guys? How's it going? Great to finally have you on the show. Yeah, fantastic. Longtime listener, big fan. Appreciate that. Where should we start? Jordi? Can we do a little biographical stuff? Can we go back in time a little bit? Get to how we got here.
Starting point is 02:41:21 Let's touch on tempo. Okay. Since we've been talking about tempo and then there's a bunch of other stuff we can talk about. But glad to see you're drinking a virtual Diet Coke with John. Yeah, I mean, I guess my question for you on tempo is, It feels like a big project. It feels like it launched very fast. Is this faster than expected? Like, what were the keys to actually getting to this point as quickly as you did? Yeah, I think it's perhaps one of the fastest, you know, projects start to mainnet launch.
Starting point is 02:41:52 Yeah. In crypto. Yeah. And it certainly was top of mind for us to move really fast. I think the genesis of the project was around noticing the problems that existing infrastructure had serving all these stable coin use cases. And we didn't want to wait around for many years. But certainly you would have seen the opportunity before August of last year, right?
Starting point is 02:42:12 Like it's not like you weren't thinking about AI or stable coins or anything. So was that like somewhat of an intentional strategy of like, hey, we need to build a really strong thesis of how this market is going to involve in it. We shouldn't just like rush in, launch something and then go through kind of wandering in the wilderness to then get to the point where you could launch something to main net. You know, you're ascribing a lot of foresight. Candidly, I mean, obviously we've been paying attention and investing and building in the crypto space for a long time. Candidly, it was kind of two sides coming together on the paradigm side. We were noticing the slowness of existing infrastructure. And then on the stripe side, they've been doing a bunch of great work in Stablecoin.
Starting point is 02:42:55 And were themselves experiencing a lot of the infrastructure challenges that existing chains had. So we had a conversation in April about maybe we should actually get together. other to build something. And then a week later, the entity was formed. Are there any other big, like, distribution nodes that need to fall into place besides having the network up and running and then the partnership with Stripe? Because it feels like that solves everything, but I'm curious to know, like, what are the other next steps in the rollout broadly? Yeah, I think there's probably two layers to think about, right? There's tempo the chain, which all the crypto infrastructure and exchange infrastructure needs to support,
Starting point is 02:43:40 and we have a bunch of great infrastructure partners there. Then I think there's just the broader trend of stable coins. Like if you think about payments, I like to think about it as like a thousand or 10,000 different markets. It's not a single market. You know, there's what country does it originate from? Where does it go? The size of payment, whether it's a business, consumer, et cetera.
Starting point is 02:44:03 and so some of those are much better served by existing infrastructure and some of it's much worse served. And so stable coins are actually particularly good at certain segments of that kind of big matrix. And that's where it's being adopted first, you know, cross-border remittances, payouts. And so part of the goal around tempo is to kind of promote stable coins more broadly, not just offer another chain. how how predictable has stable coin adoption been to date like if you go back five years ago were you pretty confident that you'd see it more in emerging markets and then and then it would go you know eventually to to business use cases for you know businesses that were operating internationally like and then obviously trading use case which has been you know dominant since the
Starting point is 02:44:56 beginning yeah stable coins have been around for 10 years mostly dominated by trading. And I think the emerging market use case is definitely expected. I mean, the monetary rails and monetary units are much worse there. I will say we were probably surprised the last 18 months by how much it's taken off. I think even the most bullish people inside of crypto, maybe some predicted it, But all of us have been surprised by how much stable coins are being used outside of crypto. And that's really the bullishness that drove us to get excited about launching something like Temple.
Starting point is 02:45:36 And is the big driver. I mean, I've heard about the like scale AI use case. I think SpaceX has mentioned a use case for stable coins. There's a lot of like cross-border. Deal. Deal is, you know, invested heavily. Is that the current narrative or are there other little offshoots popping up around adoption? There are probably three big buckets.
Starting point is 02:45:58 The first is the cross-border. And so that's where you have deal, which serve so many different countries, and Shopify is thinking about similar things. And then you have the instant nature of stable coins. So, I mean, when you think about it, it's kind of crazy that the financial system shuts off during nights and weekends. like the internet is on 24-7. The financial system is off more than it's on.
Starting point is 02:46:28 And so I think stablecoin potential is just to bring that into the 21st century where it's on all the time. Yeah, and the US dollar has insane network effects, obvious product market fit. And then you're taking a product that works, that's pretty great. And then, you know, it has some of its issues. And then you just like wrap it in something that, you know, unlocks, you know, all this additional, you know, And, you know, there is a trend in the 70s and 80s called Euro dollars, which is sort of the offline trad-fi equivalent of this of dollar deposits outside the U.S. And that also started kind of illegal and frowned upon pretty small and has now grown to, you know, north of 10 trillion in offshore
Starting point is 02:47:12 deposits and fully legitimized by the U.S. system. And I think stable coins are probably on that track as well. But back to your question, like the instant payouts, instant payments, I think is underrated, too. So it's not a cost advantage. It's more getting the money immediately and being able to spend it immediately. And if you think about a lot of these labor marketplaces, that's something that the supply side of those labor marketplaces really value. How do you think the shape of the kind of issuer market evolves? You think it's, you know, right now it seems to be like a winner winner take most market, but certainly a number of companies are kind of promoting this idea of like there should be millions of different stable coins. What's your view?
Starting point is 02:48:00 So I think there's probably, there's the how many stable coins will there be that are generally have some usage? And like what will the distribution of volume and deposits look like? Yeah. And I think the distribution is going to be very top heavy, because network effects around a single unit of account and how liquidity works in defy and exchanges. On the other hand, I think a lot of enterprises that we're talking to own the interface that people are going to be using these stable coins through.
Starting point is 02:48:34 And you can think of them in that context, maybe a little more like stored balances or gift cards, where like Starbucks has a massive gift card program. And it's essentially bank-like, if you think about it in some ways. And so I think a lot of those types of financial services that are kind of hiding inside these consumer businesses will end up considering launching their own stable.
Starting point is 02:48:59 Yeah, that makes sense. How are you feeling about the regulatory environment? It felt like 2025 was a great year for just getting clarity around where crypto was going from a regulatory perspective. Has that trend continued in your mind? Are you happy with where things are? Are you optimistic for new regulation or less regulation or any changes?
Starting point is 02:49:25 Just what's your read on the regulatory environment right now? I'd say we're in the top 1% of universes that we could have hoped for. So things are going well. That's amazing. Like the Genius Act passed. That's been huge for stable coin adoption. Obviously, stable coins were growing even before that. But a lot of the enterprises we talked to, they weren't really comfortable participating in stable coins until the regulatory clarity.
Starting point is 02:49:50 The next stage, hopefully we get market structure. The clarity bill passed as well. There's some kind of last details to work through between the banking industry and crypto. But I'm feeling optimistic that we can hopefully sort through that. Are you a believer in stable coins to the degree that you'd put your own fund capital in stable coins? Well, yeah. Tempo would not be the best place to hold stable coins if we're more comfortable pod footing. Yeah. Is there actually a future where stable coins wind up showing up in venture capital?
Starting point is 02:50:31 Well, stable coins, I think, will be like as a cash instrument, I think for sure. Yeah. Yeah. Then you don't have to, I mean, you can do instant capital calls when you sign the term sheet at 9 p.m. at night, you don't have to wait until the next day. That actually pretty bullish. Take us back through some of the previous investment experience you've had. There was someone in the chat asking about your early Fund One investments, very heavy on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Can you tell that story of what that was like from a risk perspective, what actually played out there? Yeah, when we launched Paradigm in 2018, I mean, a lot of our thesis was
Starting point is 02:51:13 we knew that crypto would expand massively. And then there was this open question, should you invest in the core protocols like Bitcoin and Ethereum, or invest in startups? And obviously, in hindsight, the answer was both, like you could own Coinbase and Bitcoin. But I think it's a lot like the AI landscape now of this question of, do you own the model companies or do you own like the occasion later on top?
Starting point is 02:51:39 Yeah. And so in 2018, like Bitcoin and Ethereum were like open. may I and anthropic and those are the things to own. And we were sort of, we're thinking much more bottoms up about what we wanted to own for five to ten years rather than like, is this too much in one investment or it happens to be a publicly traded thing. Those are all details. That's such an interesting comp because I feel like you can almost think of like L2s. Like, and comp those like cheaper, smaller open source models today where like L2s, where like L2s have been, you know, great in some ways, but also kind of threaten the revenue stream of the
Starting point is 02:52:21 underlying protocols at that point. Take me back to the bite dance investment. Was there a similar thesis around should you own bite dance or Facebook or something? And in reality, the bet was to own both. What went into your initial investment? Take me through the thought process for that one. You know, I wish I was that thoughtful back then and could claim some kind of genius. But I was just very lucky to meet the entrepreneur on a trip. And he's just one of those people you meet that jumps off the page. And I'm sure you guys have had this experience. And I was going to give him money even if he was building a hot dog stand.
Starting point is 02:53:05 Sure, sure. What was it that stuck out? It's just the conversation, the level of, detail, the technical side, the EQ, IQ, like how were you evaluating him at that time? Well, it was a weird conversation because he was, I don't really speak good Chinese. I can kind of stumble through ordering dim sum. I don't speak good Chinese either. And he didn't really speak good English.
Starting point is 02:53:30 So it was through a trampler. Yeah. But, you know, he's one of those entrepreneurs that, like, seems very thoughtful, academic, highly technical, but then in the revealed nature of his actions is just like extremely hyper-aggressive. And I think a lot of some Silicon Valley entrepreneurs look like that too in a great way. Yeah, yeah. No, I'm thinking of a number of CEOs who talked to, founders. Patrick at Strype, I was going to say, yeah, exactly, where they have one demeanor,
Starting point is 02:54:05 one level of they can communicate about the technical side of the business, very thoughtful. thoughtfully, high EQ, but the level of ambition is just unlimited. And that's, it just seems like such a rare combination. But when you find it, you got to go all in. How should people think about paradigm today? That's a good question. So, you know, we've spent a lot of time in the crypto space. And increasingly as crypto goes mainstream, we're finding that distinction to be a little less, meaningful and there's a lot of interesting things happening in the world. So, yeah, like it was, it was, it was entirely right to be entirely focused on crypto in 2018. And then as the technology diffuses, you realize like, hey, there's a lot of other businesses.
Starting point is 02:54:57 And then you also have to follow your own personal interests. And I, and I feel like if you're, if you're, you know, logging off and then thinking about, you know, biotech or AI, at a certain point, like, I think the best investors, like, follow their obsession. So, yeah, and don't get me wrong. I think crypto is still one of the most interesting frontiers. It's finally winning. It's getting mainstream. It's getting integrated everywhere. But AI and many other areas are also super interesting. And I think a paradigm today is a lot of the team we've assembled. I mean, you just spoke to our CTO. And, you know, he found out, like, what a balance sheet was, somewhat recently and is not a typical GP or investor at a fund, but everyone at the fund knows how to code and is in some kind of CLI tool all day. And the team really embodies
Starting point is 02:55:52 this hacker ethos that lives at the frontier. And we want to be spending time anywhere that is interesting at the frontier. Is this the best time in history to be that hacker archetype? I think so. It's like the joke that there's a billion dollars stuck in your laptop. You just need to press the right keys to extract it out. And I think that's never been more true with the leverage of intelligence kind of on tap. Yeah, I completely agree. What a time to be alive. Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us.
Starting point is 02:56:26 Yeah, great to finally have you on. Have a great rest of your day. Yeah, excited to watch the rollout. Yeah, we'll talk to you soon. Goodbye. See you guys. Let me tell you about Gemini 3.1 Pro. With a more capable of baseline, it's great for super complex to actually,
Starting point is 02:56:38 visualizing difficult concepts, synthesizing data into a single view, or bringing creative projects to life. And let me also tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI, their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. Jordy, what else is in the timeline? Trevor Milton is out raising money for a new company. Trevor Milton, of course, was convicted and then pardoned for defrauding investors in his truck company, Nicola. Now he's raising funds for a new jet that he claims will transform flying. And there is a quote in the journal that we can pull out. He said, from the journal.
Starting point is 02:57:18 Now, Mittlin has joined an exclusive group of post-pardon business people seemingly anointed by Trump's favor. I hope they've got a group chat for the post-pardon mafia. I walk into, Trevor says, I walk into meetings now, and I'll get high-fives from the most wealthy people in the world. He said, they're like, welcome to the club. You can withstand the fire. We can trust you now.
Starting point is 02:57:42 Wow, that is a wild quote. Feltman has wasted little time embarking on a second act. He's now CEO of CyberJet. And he's unveiling plans for a new small jet that he says will have the highest speed and range and largest lavatory
Starting point is 02:57:56 in the light jet category. Okay. Yeah, it's important. It's important. Yeah, I guess we want to be able to take a full shower. Interesting. Investor documents reviewed by the journal
Starting point is 02:58:06 said the goal is for the plane to be the first light jet to focus on A. flight to get the market cyberjet plants to create entirely new avionic system, likening the effort to Tesla's approach, designing its infotainment and vehicle
Starting point is 02:58:18 control system. The company also needs to secure more funding and suppliers and overcome regulatory hurdles. Yes, it's interesting, I mean, the concept of the jet is cool. This was an existing business
Starting point is 02:58:34 that he acquired with an investor group, and then they're raising, you know, more money after that. The kind of interesting thing is I feel like Trevor made a name for himself for being a great showman, but not exactly, you know, the most competent and, you know, sort of like engineering-led CEO, right? Like, everyone stuck in their mind. You have a video of, like, the truck rolling down the hill.
Starting point is 02:59:07 Yeah. And I don't want to buy a jet from that kind of archetype of CEO, right? You kind of want to buy a jet from... Like a hacker, like a hackathon guy who just like whips it up. A vibe coder. No, no, no, you know, the, you want to buy a jet from a company... Someone with decades of experience, ideally with decades and decades of experience, you know, millions of flight hours because reliability is more important.
Starting point is 02:59:37 important than anything when you're, you know, thousands of feet in the air. So we'll, we'll make Tyler demo it first. Yeah. I mean, I think. Step aboard. Yeah. And then, and then the, the, the AI component is interesting. I mean, I think there's a number of, there's a number of light jets and even, I think the
Starting point is 02:59:59 Pilates PC12. I think the PC12 has like an, a lot of the planes have the auto land functionality. Yeah. They still require pilots. I'm sure big pilot will figure out a way to make sure that, like, legally... Well, you just get a normal jet with no autopilot, and then you put a Tesla Optimus in the front seat. Yeah, we got a pilot. Grok.
Starting point is 03:00:18 It drives the plane. Gronk. Take the wheel. Kalshi has a market here. Tesla Optimus released this year, 25.2% chance right now. Obviously, it's declining a little bit as the year goes on, because every day that it's not released, there's a lower chance. It was up at, where was it? It was up at like 50, above 50% last April, but it's since declined.
Starting point is 03:00:43 And the market resolves to yes, if Tesla Optimus or another humanoid robot is on sale to the general public before December 31st, that feels tough because I have to imagine that what is on sale to the general public. Like this, the demand's going to be so high you would think that you would go with business consumers or. Someone that's at least, hey, why don't you come in and let's talk about your use case. Let's see how we'll be pricing this, like, because it's more. Let's talk about the security use case. Quick. Oh, yeah. Go for it.
Starting point is 03:01:17 Oh, I was just going to tell everyone about Restream. One live stream, 30 plus destinations. If you want to multi-stream, go to Restream.com. Sorry. We got to talk about the security use case. Tech companies are now using robot dogs, costing up to 300,000 apiece to guard AI data centers. Remember I was saying, I just want to put a humanoid in my backyard, a lot of patrol around. I think it'll be a good deterrent. It's working for dogs. Let's pull up this video.
Starting point is 03:01:40 Yeah. All right. That's that's freaky. It can open a door. This is the last thing you want to see when you're trying to. They're sort of mixing footage here, right? Because you wouldn't have a robot dog walking on two feet in a actual business. That's its attack mode. Yeah, it seems like it. Yeah, I guess that's just the news that the robot dogs are being deployed. guarding some of these data? I don't know. Seems relevant. You're not impressed because you think you could take it.
Starting point is 03:02:11 Yeah, totally. You kind of know you can take it. Yeah, yeah. Drop kick that thing. No problem. Still got it. Taylor Lorenz highlighting from this Vanity Fair profile, which we'll get into tomorrow. But in the profile,
Starting point is 03:02:26 Dario Amade never actually gave me an interview, stiffing me after months of planning. So I created a version of Dario Amade using his own machine. I've had Claude. several published interviews, including everything Amadei said at Davos, plus the contents of his two books of essays and told, which I'm sure Claude already has access to.
Starting point is 03:02:43 Yeah. And told Claude to simulate the interview using variations on real quotes and to make it like a scene from Raymond Chandler's The Big Sleep. It took Claude less than three minutes. You probably couldn't tell the difference. And maybe there isn't one. Okay, there was, there was like some hot mic moment.
Starting point is 03:03:00 Is that real? If everything's, if everything's, if everything. I still have to read through it. Yeah, yeah, we got to properly read through this. I'm sure there's some interesting stuff. It does seem like there's a few interviews. I saw some quotes about like, Trent saying that he doesn't wear sunscreen anymore,
Starting point is 03:03:17 which I've been advocating for, you know, getting on the Tran and D-Ball Anavar because AI will cure all the downsides, potentially. It's sort of a sort of twist on that. But at this point, now that I've seen the screenshot, I'm kind of wondering, like, okay, like what in here is real? Is it all going to be revealed at the end? It's a very long piece.
Starting point is 03:03:33 but we'll give it a read and see what's going on there. We can briefly cover introspection gait. Mark Hendryson shared something from Marcus Aurelius Meditations. Stop talking about what the good man is like and just be one. And Roon says an entire book where the guy is introspecting. I think that's the joke, right? Yeah, Mark Hendrison's like... Yeah, I think I, you know,
Starting point is 03:04:03 seeing through, I think we saw, we got what Mark was saying, even though a lot of people have, he's, you know, leaned into the chaos and it seems to just be having a good time. But he was basically saying, just, just, stop ruminating. Stop ruminating. I mean, it's a transposition of the you can just do things, I do. It's like, actually go and do the thing, you know, uh, uh, Jeremy Gaffan has another post about this, where it's like people are like rehearsing for the fight that never comes. And, and that is like a different formulation of like the don't. It's like don't, don't spend your entire life just thinking about
Starting point is 03:04:43 what you're meant to do with your life. Like go do something, get some real experiences. There's probably a room for introspection and then go back and forth and watch the game tape, monitor your KPIs, but also just think about what brings you joy and what you can do in the world that's beneficial. What's your Ikegaie? What's, what are you good at? What does the market want from you? What can you make money doing? That type of stuff. These are reasonable, but should that be 99% of your, of your time spent? Probably not, you know? Never ruminate. Never ruminate. Always specked, never ruminate. Always speck. Okay. Speck max. Well, let me tell you about Plaid. Plad powers the apps you use to spend, say, borrow, and invest. Securely connecting bank accounts
Starting point is 03:05:28 to move money, fight fraud, and improve lending now with AI. Bill Gurley says, I fear that AI has decimated the traditional email inbox as we know it. Too many personalized slop email slipped through the spam filter. Hope someone builds a better mousetrap. This one is cooked in its current form. Great use of the word cooked. Nikita was saying February 11th prediction in less than 90 days. All channels that we thought were saved from spam and automation will be so flooded
Starting point is 03:05:53 that they will no longer be usable in any functional sense. I messaged phone calls Gmail. Email inbox certainly feels that way. Nikita says spam laws will need to be. be rewritten soon. Machines should be prohibited from communicating with humans unprompted. This will actually make your job just actually just hitting like the button because like, no, a machine didn't send that. A human did. The human hit the button and you're going to have to press a button like, you know, 10,000 times a day if you're BDR sending sales emails. So
Starting point is 03:06:22 anyways, it has been an honor to do the show. We have one last gong today. Kendra Barnett was just served her first open AI ad impression. It's amazing news. For the Wall Street Journal, the benchmark and business coverage since 1889. I can't imagine a better ad to get served. We love the Wall Street Journal here
Starting point is 03:06:45 and we love ads. So congratulations to Kendra for being served that first open AI ad impression. We hope you all have the best afternoon, evening of your entire life. And we look forward to being back with you tomorrow.
Starting point is 03:07:01 See you tomorrow. Goodbye.

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