TBPN - Jobs Boom, Astra Reactions, Cybercab Roll Out, The Dyson Debate | Hunter Somerville, Bar Winkler, Bridgit Mendler, Carina Hong & Ken Ono
Episode Date: September 4, 2026(00:00) - Astra Reactions (00:00) - Jobs Report (00:00) - The Dyson Debate (00:00) - Cybercab Roll Out (00:00) - Hunter Somerville discusses his role as co-head of venture and growth e...quity at StepStone Group, where he invests across funds, direct deals, and secondary transactions. He examines the difficult fundraising environment for emerging managers, inflated valuations and SPV fees, cap-table management, liquidity challenges, and opportunities in AI, deep tech, hard tech, energy, defense, and biotech. (00:01) - Bar Winkler discusses Wonderful, the applied AI company he co-founded and leads as CEO, which operates across 33 markets and recently raised a $550 million Series C. He explains how its AI operating system helps large enterprises deploy agents and applications across customer support, back-office processes, coding, and legacy system replacement, with the long-term ambition of becoming foundational infrastructure comparable to Microsoft. (00:01) - Carina Hong discusses her work as founder and CEO of Axiom Math, where she develops AI tools for mathematical discovery and formal verification. She highlights Axiom’s record-setting progress on major problems, its competition with leading AI labs, and the potential for verification technology to improve mathematics, software, and scientific research. (00:02) - Bridgit Mendler, CEO and co-founder of space communications startup Northwood Space, discusses the company’s international ground-station network, compact antenna systems, and growing production capacity. She explains how Northwood aims to provide satellites with high-throughput, reliable connectivity while helping operators maximize valuable data amid rising demand and potential launch constraints. TBPN is made possible by:Ramp - https://ramp.comPublic - https://public.comCisco - https://www.cisco.comConsole - https://www.console.comCrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.comFigma - https://www.figma.comMongoDB - https://www.mongodb.comNYSE - https://www.nyse.comRailway - https://railway.comShopify - https://www.shopify.comCodex - http://openAI.com/codexFollow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tbpn/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive
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watching TVPN. Today is Friday, September 4th, 2026. We are live from the TVPN Ultramm,
the Temple of Technology, the Fortress of Finance, the Capital of Capital. That's right.
Let's get that Christmas countdown. First, let me tell you about ramp.com. Time is money,
save both, easy to use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more, all in one place.
How many days? There we go. 111 days until Christmas.
11 days until Christmas.
The Christmas countdown is helpful because, one, gives you something to look forward to.
Indeed.
But it also is a subtle reminder that you only have 111 days left in this year.
Yeah.
It's game time.
It is.
It's game time.
Well, we're excited for it.
Big news in the AI world, obviously.
AstraGPT6 launched yesterday.
We went through the blog post briefly.
It went up mid-show.
A bunch of impressive benjamin.
We talked about Arc AGI.
We moved the goalposts because Arc AGI V3 is now saturated, which is particularly crazy because of how detailed those games are when you play them.
The thing that stuck out to me, though, was watching the demos of people build 3D scenes in Blender using Astra.
Clearly, a bunch of people got access to the model before and were able to fire off one.
prompt, maybe a few prompts.
It feels like it's very, very capable to just fire a blender and do a full task and model
a whole world.
That said, Matt Schumer, who had a couple of the most impressive examples.
Yeah.
He has been talking about how the art of prompting is back.
Oh, interesting.
He had a very specific process where you have like a loop, manager agent and subagents.
Yeah.
And it's still not as simple.
It's just like you can get a good output doing, you know, in one shot.
But to get some of these really incredible outputs does take a little bit of refinement.
Yeah.
And I'm sure a lot of that information will propagate across the internet as it already has.
I'd love to pull up some of the images from or the videos from the launch from folks who are actually test driving GPT6 Astra.
first, Sharif, Sharif said,
GPT6 Aster recreated the palace of fine arts in Blender.
This is my favorite building in San Francisco because it was built for the World's Fair in 1914.
I didn't know that.
Where the steam locomotive and telephone were showed off.
Wow.
It was a time when technology gave us all a deep sense of optimism for the future.
I feel like some of that sense has been lost since, certainly.
But I hope models like Astor can help restore it and push us towards a more hopeful future.
So if we can play that actual video, you can see.
So I imagine that it pulls images from the internet.
There's a whole bunch of obviously reference diagrams.
There's a whole bunch of different ways that you could ground a 3D modeling exercise.
You could even pull the blueprints.
There might be free models out there.
Yeah, there's this odd thing where you could use an AI image generator because the AI image generators are knowledgeable about what the palace of finance.
arts is, it could generate a bunch of images there. So there's all these different ways to
triangulate it. And then you can also just go on, I think SketchFab is one of the big, uh, free 3D model
purveyors online. And so you could potentially go grab an actual 3D model build off of that for
your scene. So there's all these different ways to solve a problem. And Astros seems to be good at
actually going and doing it. There's a few more that we should look through. Uh, there's one
comparison, since this is the new Pelican bench apparently. Uh, same, same, same,
same prompt, same goal of creating this fly-through video for a real estate scene.
And this feels like something that could be useful.
I've already seen on Zillow there is the ability to restile images.
So if you're looking at a house on Zillow, you can see the interior photos.
And then you can say, I'd like to redecorate this in a modern style or in a contemporary
style or in a colonial style.
And it will go and use AI image generation on the back end to do that.
It's only available on a fraction of Zillow listings.
It's clearly some sort of feature that they need to turn on.
But you could imagine this being something, especially for spec homes that are selling
that maybe haven't been, that they don't have the budget to actually go do proper rendering,
just lowering the cost.
You get sort of a Jevin's paradox moment.
There's another one from Thomas.
He says Astra is very good at 3D modeling, and the lighting is way better in this one.
This is what this actually looks properly ray-traced, properly lit, really thoughtfully designed.
Maybe that's in the prompt.
Maybe that's just the way this one turned out based on the photos from a blender scene to then an Unreal Engine 5 walkable experience.
So everything becomes translatable.
You'll be able to take your tweets, turn them into blog posts, turn them into videos, turn them into 3D games on Steam.
T.A style video games.
Basically, basically.
And so there's a little bit of prompt, and Thomas reveals a little bit about his process here.
I would like to see VCs.
If you're going to put out an AI blog post, you know, a blog post.
Like a market map.
No, if you're going to put out an essay that was clearly written by AI, you should be required to put out a video game that accompanies it.
Yeah.
That's sort of playable that gets the same concept.
Yeah. I'm thinking like instead of a market map, making a Fortnite map.
I want to be able to play in the different, you know, town is a popular AI startup.
Might land on a market map.
Should land on the virtual Fortnite map as well.
Who else said this?
Euphan Yee, I think this was interesting.
There's some debate over this last one, whether there was like a different harness involved.
But same thing.
Give it a Zillel listing.
It can 3D model the house.
So this, it's always,
with these new releases, it's interesting what makes you feel the AGI or not.
Realistically, Frontier Math, Tier 4, I think they scored 99% on that.
Terminal Bench Science, 0.1, they're just numbers to me.
Like, they don't do anything for me emotionally because I don't have any grounding in how hard
those particular things are.
And also, I sort of assume that computers are good at math.
And you didn't get past algebra and look how successful you are, right?
Exactly, exactly.
So, so those, those are rarely.
I've accomplished all of this off of algebra one.
Yeah, yeah.
A freshman level math, Olympiad.
Yeah, exactly.
So those are never really fieldy-I moments for me, but this, but I've actually spent
hundreds, if not thousands of hours in 3D modeling software, mostly in Cinema 4D and
Houdini.
And it was really fun.
I really enjoy making 3D renders and motion graphics.
And it was also useful when I was making YouTube videos.
But every step in building a scene requires you got to watch a YouTube tutorial.
Then you've got to look up how all the different functions work.
And then ultimately you're tweaking settings in literally four dimensions because it's a 3D scene.
But then over time, you have to map where the camera goes, where the different objects are moving, how things progress every time.
And it can also be very compute intensive.
So there's a whole bunch of times where just to preview the scene in low-res, you might have to cache and load and pre-bake certain animation so that you can just see what it looks like.
And then you're like, ah, it's not there.
I got to go back and change some setting for some sort of smoke simulation or some sort of fracturing that's going on.
And so it's fun, but it is extremely cumbersome.
And ultimately, you're doing this on a two-dimensional screen, and it can be very time-consuming.
And frustrating.
And so by the time I stopped spending time on motion graphics, which is around 2021,
I'd been building the YouTube channel and I hired a few editors.
Some of them were good at After Effects.
Some of them learned Blender.
Blender was ascendant at that time.
So Blender is the open source community-led effort.
Cinema 4D is a closed source piece of software, very expensive, was very expensive,
was like over $1,000 to get a license that would be good for like a year.
Then they eventually went subscription.
And so there were pieces of software that were used by Hollywood, but were very expensive, very high barriered entry.
So you didn't have as much of a flourishing ecosystem.
Blender in 2021 was clearly on this trajectory where it was going to build this ecosystem and become very, very popular.
And it did.
But by 2021, I was able to hire video editors who were able to go do scenes in Blender.
But still, it was a huge ask.
If I was like, for this YouTube video, I was posting every single week.
I'd like a motion graphic to illustrate something.
And I did this one where we built a 3D battleship board for this US-China military
competitive analysis.
And I mean, it's like it sort of ties up an editor for a week while they're working on this.
And this just speeds all of that up.
So you're going to get back to like the is it over for motion designers that worry about job displacement?
I think we've been through enough of these cycles that hopefully we're Jevin's paradox
pilled at this point. We imagine a...
You should just comp into software engineering.
Yeah, exactly.
There's a lot more 3D renders.
It seems like everything that can be, anything that can be rendered will be rendered.
And it's just, and more people are going to try to make something themselves and then hit the point where they're like, okay, there's this sort of
of area where the models can't, can't get it to 100%.
Now I need to actually go find, you know, find somebody who's an expert to work with them.
Yeah, yeah, totally.
And so we're back on the is this AGI question.
The Wall Street Journal said, yes, we are entering the era of artificial general intelligence.
It's in the journal.
They've declared it.
Although entering the era, like the door, the house is AGI, the door,
and we are entering, we're like almost in the AGI era, according to Wall Street Journal.
I don't know.
Stripe called it AGI.
Didn't they call it AGI, Jan 1?
Yeah.
And there's been various calls.
Tyler Cowan called it AGI called it AGI like three years ago.
He was ready to rock.
I think that was GBT4.
Something like that.
No, it might have been 01.
I think O.1, he was like, this is AGI.
But it's clearly artificial, clearly intelligent.
And don't you think he'll end up looking like,
pretty good in the fullness of time on that call.
100% because it clearly is this like,
you know, timeline of spectrum.
Yeah.
I do like to imagine the stripe,
the collisons, just like at,
like, just after midnight,
you know, there's champagne,
maybe some sparklers, some fireworks,
and they just go, that's it.
It's AGI.
It's AGI.
But the question is no longer,
is it artificial, we know it is.
The question is no longer, is it intelligent?
We know it is at a lot of different tasks.
The question is how general is it?
Because Blender is open source can be downloaded and copied a million times into reinforcement learning environments.
We know that OpenAI bought, quote, tens of thousands of Mac minis and Mac studios to do computer use training on.
And so the question is, is it only good at Blender?
Will it work in Cinema 4D?
Will it work in Houdini?
Will it work in a small piece of software that does 3D modeling that has fallen by the wayside?
Now, there's an interesting dynamic here where I was in the boat of, I could see that Blender was going to be the new hot thing, the best tool that I should have moved.
But I already had so many plug-ins and textures and rendering and I knew the layout that I downloaded Blender.
I opened it up and I was like, I really don't want to have to get over this learning curve.
Even though I know in five years, Blender's going to be way better than Cinema 4D.
There's this switching cost.
Now, you're in this weird world where it's pretty good.
if you're a software company where the frontier labs bullseye lands on you.
And I'm thinking about Slack, like Alex Wang at Meta,
just moved them to Slack off of teams or they had like an internal workspace thing.
And specifically he said-
Give it up for Beniov, truly.
And specifically he said Slack is better for work with AI agents.
And why is that?
Well, it's because the frontier labs all use Slack.
And so they have Slack as a reinforcement learning environment.
And so it got really good at Slack.
And I think that even though there are open source slacks and you can vibe code a Slack competitor, as we have tested, Slack was the logical tool to pull off the shelf for the AI companies, for the AI agents, for the models.
And Blender seems to be that.
So the interesting thing is that I do wonder if people will wind up shifting from Cinema 4D to Blender because the models are better at Blender.
or will the models generalize and say, yeah, this looks a little bit different because it's a slightly different piece of software.
But I've trained so many hours in Blender that I can also do Cinema 4D or also do Houdini.
Because some of those other softwares are better at certain things.
Some of them are better at smoke simulations.
Some of the better at water simulations.
There are advantages to each piece.
I don't want to degrade any particular piece of 3D software.
I love them all equally.
But I think there are some reports that it's quite effective at video editing.
Cool.
I'd be interested to take it for a spin.
I wonder the interesting thing is that most video is still edited in Adobe Premiere.
It's a closed source, Adobe, you know, they have their guardrails.
They probably, they might not want to, you know, say, oh, yeah, sure, take 10,000 licenses, no problem.
Pay us $10 a month for that.
They might have a different opinion.
They may want an AI agent that's internal.
There might be all sorts of different things.
But then again, there are probably, I mean, I know.
that there are open source video editing suites out there. I think that they lag a little bit,
but there are some that are free or open source at least. The other interesting thing,
I mean, video editing, like all these things, like taste is so important in these. It's often
less about the exact instructions and more about the like telling the right story,
using the right tools, not creating slop, whether you're doing.
doing it yourself or with an AI agent.
But I think that gets to the core question of like, how do you evaluate these model launches?
We were discussing the idea that like the benchmark era might be coming to a close in some way.
Because as soon as the benchmarks created, it's hill climbed very, very quickly.
And then it's at 99 or 100 percent pretty quickly.
And everyone sort of their eyes start glazing over in benchmark discussions.
and it just goes back to like the vibe check.
I think the best thing to do when a model comes out is just take it for a spin.
And mostly pointed at something that you know really well
because you don't want to be in the,
you want to expose the models.
What's the, what's the gelman amnesia?
That's the one I'm thinking of.
You basically want to test if galman amnesia is triggered by you using the model.
So pointed at something that you intimately understand and see if you're impressed.
And then because if you pointed out something.
What?
Yes, exactly.
Yeah.
Yeah, we got to do the horse bench again.
We have a couple more bench.
Let's see comedy.
I want to see some new jokes.
Shrimp fried rice bench.
Also, interesting, gelman amnesia, not created by Murray Gelman, the physicist who was at Caltech,
who lived in my hometown.
And his house is actually for sale.
right now. But he was having coffee regularly with another physicist. I forget what his name was,
but he's really famous. And the other guy was like, we notice this together. I'm naming it after you.
Do you have the story? Did you look this up? The origin?
It says it's named after Nobel Prize winning physicist Murray Gailman.
Yes, it's named after him, but it was coined by his buddy who was another physicist who was like.
Michael Crickton.
Is that it?
Okay.
Yeah.
So they were hanging out, having coffee.
They realized this thing.
And it's like...
Tyler should name this specific situation.
Yeah.
Cosgrove paradox.
Where...
Where...
Where someone asks you to fact-check something.
They don't really know anything about.
Anyway, we can move on because there's a whole bunch more news.
Let me tell you about Cisco.
Critical infrastructure for the AI era.
Unlocked seamless real-time experiences.
new value with Cisco. So, there are other reactions to Astro we should go through in the timeline.
The big one comes from Joe Wisenthal. He says, you're never going to believe it, but someone
one prompted the new model to make a completely new and immersive 3D game. Yes, the bar has
already been raised. The goalposts have been moved. It's not enough to make a game. It has to be
funny, entertaining. And I don't know. I know how, I, I know how, I, I, I, I, I,
feel like a lot of people are taking the easy way out with these web-based games, playing a
game on a MacBook Pro in a Chrome tab, that's not real gaming. It's got to be running on a PC,
on Steam or on a PS5 or on an Xbox. It's got to have more to it than just some fun game
that you can play around with in the browser. I do love that the browser games are coming back.
I don't know if either of you ever experienced
like the Flash era but like Flash
games were huge. Line Rider.
Line Rider, okay. What about you?
In elementary school we'd play on
cool math games. Cool math games. Okay. What
game? Line writer or something else?
I don't know. I don't know. I don't remember.
There's so many. Put any money on it?
Sorry? You put any money on it ever?
Make any money?
Let's see. There's also some updates.
Token pricing is effectively meaningless now. The
benchmarks are meaningless. The token pricing
charts are meaningless. Everything's meaningless.
No. So, Stephen Hidal is sharing
the cost efficiency, how you should think about cost efficiency
in the modern era. So 3.8 flash looks
13 times cheaper when measured per token,
but Astra is cheaper per task, since it's far
more efficient. Measure your costs per task, not per
token. So, interesting.
Will we see a decline in, if models get
more token efficient?
will we see a decline?
I mean, we probably won't see an actual decline
in token volumes.
But, you know, we've seen
Sundar Pichai from Google and alphabet
stand on stage and talk about
the exponential increases in token volumes.
But you might see a kink in that graph
or like a deceleration to some extent
if models just get way more token efficiency.
Like if the next version of Gemini
or 3.8 flash is
100x more token efficient, you might see a little bit less growth in token volumes, but they might
be doing more valuable work than ever. So sort of an interesting nuance, you've got to adapt to the
modern times, I suppose. So the intelligence index versus the output tokens per intelligence
task. There's a whole bunch of charts you can dig through. Let me tell you about the New York Stock
Exchange. We want to change the world, raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange.
Jordy, any other astro reactions you want to go through?
I think we'll have more by Monday.
Probably.
As more people get it.
Yeah, yeah.
We need a break.
We need a break.
We need a, we need a, we need a, uh, it's about that time.
It's about that time.
Not for us, but, but.
For the AI leaders, for the executives, for the enterprise leaders, we need them to be
able to digest the model.
That typically happens over Christmas, even though we're doing the road to Christmas.
No, but we've talked about three-day weekends.
Oh, yeah, the three-day weekends coming up.
So people will be able to find.
it up. Okay. Okay. So yeah, it's, yeah, Labor Day. It's got to be, uh, everyone's got to be
spinning, spinning up Astra by tomorrow. Lock in. Hopefully you don't have any real plans. So you can
stay inside and vibe code. So you can understand, you know, where the model strong, how you want
to deploy it, what you want your employees doing with it, etc. Jack Altman saw the benchmarks and said,
Sam, exclamation point. I guess even a blind squirrel can find a nut sometimes. Congrats.
That's good. That's good. I like it. So good. Anyway, we should move on to the jobs report because even though AI is getting better, so is the U.S. employment picture. The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August.
Sheesh. That is a lot of jobs. Also, what's interesting is that the Wall Street Journal had an op-ed.
violation. Had an op-ed just, I mean, it just printed today, it went to print online yesterday,
but saying, why we'll have to get used to meh job reports? The economy doesn't need to generate
all that many jobs to keep the labor market steady, but that won't keep low job growth from
feeling dissatisfying. So economists think, or they thought, that Friday's jobs report will show
the U.S. added seasonally adjusted
53,000 jobs in August.
The number came back, 162,000.
Three times what these economists.
What were the economists doing, asleep at the wheel?
They're on summer vacation, maybe.
Who knows?
That would be a step up from July's unexpected loss of 23,000 jobs,
which, of course, was now revised upward.
So we actually did add jobs in...
Oh, we got an upwards revision.
Upward revision.
You don't see that much.
Usually...
Narrative violation.
Usually.
Yeah.
That's a narrative violation.
There's a whole bunch of interesting, there's a whole bunch of interesting dynamics going on in the economy.
The Wall Street Journal has been doing a great job highlighting the main street millionaire, the small town entrepreneur, what's happening in the broader real economy, not too focused on what's happening in tech and tech jobs, where obviously a very small employee base can create a really outsized outcome.
nothing shows that better than hugging face.
Couple hundred employees, $12 billion outcome.
And that's not the nature of the U.S. economy.
That is the power law.
That is the outlier.
But it's easy to track and say,
oh, well, like, if you're making a $12 billion business
with just a couple hundred people,
there's not going to be any more jobs,
but that's not the way the actual U.S. economy works.
So what is going on with the U.S. economy?
The August jobs report is out,
and it is good.
It blew past expectations with the U.S. adding 162,000 jobs.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal said that the U.S. would add 53,000.
That comes after both the June and July jobs reports were revised up to 31,000 and 21,000 respectively.
So the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, which is historically low, which indicates that we generally have a healthy labor market.
The jobs added were fairly broad-based from the Wall Street Journal.
food services and drinking places where it standout, let's go, with an increase of 59,000 jobs.
And people were worried about this post-World Cup slump.
You remember this?
Yeah.
Yeah.
And so it seems like whatever happened there, whatever gyrations happened, people are still dining out.
People are still going to bars, and so they're hiring.
I think it's quite possible that, you know, recent model advances are allowing people to, you know, have more.
power lunches.
It might have historically been a Friday thing.
Yeah.
Maybe now they're adding Monday to Wednesday.
Sort of a let Astra take the wheel scenario.
Yeah.
After 1 p.m. in many offices across the country.
Could be a thing.
Could be that.
Similarly, local government education gained 42,000 jobs after losing 58,000 jobs in the
prior months.
Manufacturing was among the sectors registering job gains, as was health care, as has
always been the case, healthcare continues to boom. The information and finance sectors shed jobs
while economists are divided over how artificial intelligence will divide the market. Those sectors
are generally viewed as among the most exposed to technology. At a minimum, the report is
an argument against the Fed lowering rates in September. Before the report, markets have been
roughly divided on the prospect of a hike. It also seems that the AI jobs apocalypse is still on hold,
at least for another month. And, of course,
Of course, we'll discuss this on the show.
Let me tell you about Shopify while Jordy queues up the next story.
Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents.
Do you have anything?
Because I got a big story here we can read through, but it's a long one.
Yeah.
On the rates debate, the president was over on Truth Social today.
asking for a rate cut and making a bunch of various threats around halting trade with a number of our
trade partners if we don't get a rate cut.
So hopefully the market shrugs it off and that's all I have.
Okay, let's move on to some funny timeline posts, the timeline, because Logo Datelist has a funny one here.
Slop does not come from AI, but from the heart of man, AI, AI only reveals.
the slop that is already in the heart of man.
What man desire to slop, the problem with the problem is with man, not the machines.
Very eloquent.
And then Tom Cruise says, not the real Tom Cruise, but a non-account says, I am joining the war on
artificial superintelligence on the side of artificial superintelligence with a crazy
screenshot that we need to keep on the screen too long.
Keep that moving.
AI outage, of course, and people are saying code without AI, and it is the Odyssey, try and string this bow challenge.
We really should have put Tyler to the test yesterday.
Fiz buzz, do it, Python, good luck.
You only have GitHub.
Tyler's first thing, he would go to chat and ask what programming language is good for somebody just getting into programming?
And then realize it was down.
just be completely halted.
This was a heartwarming moment.
A tennis player who's retiring at the end of the year
says his next career after tennis will be in finance.
Let's go.
And I just wanted to give a round of applause.
That's great.
Super, super heartwarming.
I have a new chapter coming next year.
I'll be working in finance.
I already signed to work in wealth management in a Swiss company.
My next chapter is looking more in an office and working in finance.
I know some former pro athletes who have gone into wealth management, and it's a fantastic fit.
They've had fantastic careers.
It makes a lot of sense.
You can go play golf and tennis with your clients, and you meet a lot of interesting people while you're on tour.
It can be a very, very good fit, especially if you have the passion for it, even before you wound your career down.
Major partnership news.
Huge partnership news.
Sam Blonde has partnered with Jim.
Riley at what is it Carolina a
Charleston AI Charleston AI
Charlesson AI partners with Monaco
let's watch this is big
as you know I'm Jim Riley
co-founder I do now
AI's coming to Charleston it's already here
now
AI's coming to Charles
it's already here with Monaco
we can bring AI to all of South Carolina
which is what I want to do
I really want to bring AI to
everybody in South Carolina.
And with their help,
their program, their AI, we can do
that. So if you're a founder
and you need assistance and want help
identifying potential customers,
people that will use your
product, Monaco is the way to go.
Just like I'm using them.
This is awesome.
Talk about moving quickly because if
this video went up
even one week from now,
it could be like, ah, I roll.
Like we've seen a couple of this guys.
video. The memes, this is so fast. Really great execution. Timings everything with these things.
Very funny. Congrats to Monaco and Sam Blonde on just a fun moment. And I mean, like, unironically,
he seems like someone who is a great evangelist who's going to actually aid in AI diffusion.
There's no clip of, there's zero clips of Jim Riley talking about AI Dune.
Yeah.
Yeah. That we know of.
Don't ask what law was reading in 2018.
Don't look him up on less wrong. He might be on there.
Who knows? He might have been in a Bay Area group home. You don't know that yet.
But hopefully he was just a normal businessman.
Yeah. He might have read, it's possibly read the basilisk and realized he needed to, he needed to create a brick and war.
This is all an elaborate Rocco's vassalisk gambit trying to please the future AI gods.
Well, Nvidia has released AI God mode for gamers.
It's called DLSS-F-5.
They've been working on this technology for a while.
Deep learning, super sampling.
It takes the current game resolution, up reses it using AI.
Some people hate it.
It's very controversial.
I think it looks great.
Let us know what you think.
Watch this video of Kingdom Come 2.
This is being rendered in a game engine.
and then pass through DLSS-S-5 to make it more photo realistic.
Changes everything.
Okay, yeah.
Truly, it does still look like a video game to me.
But that's not entirely the point with this.
It's just to get you just one little notch up.
It's not, it doesn't actually feel fully like a movie, but I don't know.
I thought it was good.
I'm excited for this.
Should kettle and fire acquire?
Campbell's Soup. That's what everyone's asking.
100% yes.
Yes. I actually have fond memories of Campbell's Soup.
Yes.
As a kid, I would go surfing and then I'd be really cold, which has created some controversy online.
We had an Instagram reel, went viral.
That's right.
I was saying that at least in cold waters, Northern California, it wasn't great for me to surf before needing to be productive.
that pissed a lot of people off.
But I would come home and I would have some Campbell's soup.
It was fantastic.
But you can imagine that the quality of the product was actually probably pretty bad back then.
And I would assume that it's gotten far worse.
And so if we could get Justin in there to fix it up, get it back on track, I'd love to see that.
I think it'd be very interesting.
And it does not seem out of the realm of possibility at all.
Justin's a fantastic entrepreneur, fantastic investor.
Yes, Campbell Soup is a larger company, market cap in the single-digit billions, I believe.
Campbell's...
6.4 billion.
Yeah.
But you get the right investors around the table.
Obviously, it's a very old company.
On a lot of debt.
9 billion of sales.
He's within striking distance there.
I think he might be creeping up on them.
One...
One broth.
container at a time.
One box of broth at a time.
One box at a time.
Ryan Peterson has a...
But we've been saying this for a long time that like, they're like, when a large legacy
company is, has done the McKinsey consultant as CEO and they've done the suit and
they've done the, okay, we hired the person who is internal and climbed the management
ranks.
It is interesting to try and put a founder of a smaller company just in the top.
job and say go founder mode, try something new, but there's still not that much appetite for it.
So, well, what do you think?
Ken Watanah says, why are all the A16D partners tweeting about karmic retribution today?
Yes.
I saw a post from Alex Rampel saying karma is a swear word.
Ryan Peterson has a pretty thought-provoking theory.
He says conspiracy theory.
I choose to believe that Mark Andreessen was funding Pablo Torre, Steve Bolton.
investigation to get back at him for Internet Explorer.
Ultimate punishment.
Banned from your own arena for cloning.
That's a funny karma moment.
Yeah.
Pablo Tori dropped a new investigation into the Dodgers this morning.
I was listening to it on the way into work, and it is fantastic.
He is one of the greatest podcast, one of the greatest living podcasters, which pretty much includes almost all podcasters.
ever.
Yeah.
But really, really crazy story.
Mark Walter, you know, setting up,
and Magic Johnson is involved in quite a big way.
So highly recommend going and checking out that story.
Yeah, I'm excited for that to develop.
Again, yeah, I mean, with any of these allegations,
it'll probably take a year of investigation to get the actual results.
But get ready to learn about insurance because the,
untangling a lot of these different organizations is very, very difficult.
But it can be really interesting.
What's Ryan Harmon working on these days?
Before that, we don't have to pull up this image, but has Burning Man fallen off?
I have no idea.
I think they had a rough go after the, I've never been.
I think they had a rough go after the muddy one.
There was one where it rained like crazy, and it was really,
really, really muddy. And I think everyone was like, that was a lot. I don't know if I'm going back next year. And then also COVID might have switched things up for a little bit. I think they might have skipped one. So a couple different moments of like, okay, a lot of like washing out certain people. But then also. Yeah, it seems like it seems like it's it doesn't necessarily have a massive inflow of net new young people into it. And the, the burning man population is,
is just is aging up, which doesn't mean that Burning Man, you know, hopefully for Black Rock,
you know, this doesn't mean that Burning Man's going away anytime soon.
We hate to see Black Rock City, obviously named after Black Rock, the financial institution.
Yeah, probably some sort of connection. I would assume some connection.
But, but yeah, some lab leaders are there.
Yeah.
That I'm aware. I have been informed that there are lab leaders there.
you know, Sam and Greg have been all over the podcast circuit this week, so it's not them.
But there are lab leaders there, which to me is funny because they hopefully aren't on X because it would be hard to be properly enjoying.
You're talking about the social media platform?
Yes.
Okay.
You can imagine, you know, you're camped out in the desert.
The whole purpose is to like do nothing and just, you know, whatever they do out there.
Yeah.
and then it'll be a little bit jarring, I think, coming back for that trip and seeing the updates.
If Burning Man wants to survive, I think that they should probably host it in New York, switch it up, invite only, maybe get Sorkin on stage interviewing CEOs, something a lot more like deal book would probably work for like the future there.
That would be something that I would want to get to.
Yeah, and it would make the Black Rock connection make more sense.
Exactly. Yeah.
It was always a little, you had to squint to understand why is Black Rock involved with Burning Man?
But if they held it in Manhattan with just financial leaders, geopolitical leaders,
and it was just more like one-on-one conversations about global markets.
With a legendary investigative journalist and a news anchor who everyone really respects.
And it was invite only.
And then the videos could go out on the internet.
Like that might be a little bit more up my alley.
Yeah.
If they want to appeal to me.
I don't know. I don't know if they're going after me. I don't know. I'm in the tam. I don't know.
Speaking of Sorkin, Sorkin, um, Sorkin has an amazing quote from when, uh, Mark Walter bought, uh, the Dodgers.
He said, mark my words, this man will be investigated by Bobless. No, he was just like, he was basically saying, like, it's a paraphrase, like, this is not all, certainly not all of his money.
Oh, interesting. There's some other, there's a bunch of people funding this that aren't just.
Yeah. And, and I forget that, like, it's, like, it's,
normal in venture. Like if you're like, oh, yeah, I raised money from, you know, Sean McGuire at
Sequoia. You're like, yeah, well, that's Sequoia's money and that's not all his money.
He probably has a stake in it that he invested. But then also it's Sequoia's money. And
Sequoia's money is like the Harvard and Yale Endowment money and CalPERS and all these pension
funds.
And like, you understand that there's this sequence of ownership that happens with a normal venture
investment or even an acquisition.
But in sports, like the final beneficial owner is really important.
And I don't know if that's purely aesthetic because when you say this person owns this team,
you want to know that they actually own it and they're not just the front man for like
a private equity firm.
But it's interesting that Sorkin called that out.
He's the best for a reason.
Anyway, what's Ryan Harmon up to?
He's cutting the number of calories in a new product called Hall Pass.
Yep.
One third, the calories, one third, the ad space, hall pass.
This is from Peter Rahal, correct?
Very cool.
So you know him from RX bar.
You know him from David, the protein bar.
Sorry, I wanted to...
Am I right?
I wanted to include Sorkin's line before we move on.
Please.
Sorkin said, and this is 2014, he says, they appear to be living out a childhood fantasy using other people's money, some of whom may not even realize it.
Wow.
And it took over a decade for the chickens to come home to roost on that one.
Very, very interesting.
He also called it a lawsuit waiting to happen.
Anyways, back to advertising.
Whole past.
Yeah, day job and Medici.
which is the parent company of David and now Hall Pass.
They've just been cooking together.
They had the same team behind the fish campaign,
which I still was still,
it was so odd that it's stuck in your mind.
Yeah.
I've gone back and forth on,
did they ever actually sell boiled coffee?
Yeah, they did.
They did.
They delivered it.
But they didn't, but it's not like an actual skew.
It was a skew for a period of time.
Oh, for a period of time.
But it was like a special launch, special drop.
Let's see if you can still get it.
They're not in the business because there is a business there.
People do buy boiled cod.
They still have canned cod for sale on the website.
Maybe it'll be the biggest skew ever.
Wildcott, Atlantic cod.
Yeah.
What happens?
Okay.
Let me tell you about console.
Please.
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Now.
The great Dyson.
Great Dyson debate.
T.J. Parker kicked it off.
He said apparently unpopular opinion.
Dyson products are generally not very good.
David Sanra.
Someone needs to check it on him.
But strongly agree, though my girls love their air wrap, says Bryce Roberts.
A couple other people saying, yep, my wife got a vacuum.
It was terrible.
Felt like a total sci-op.
A lot of people are upset.
The Matic founders chiming in it.
I got an alternative for you.
Oh, he's saying that it's likely ruining your rug slash carpet.
Oh, interesting.
Dyson, uh, rug shed and Dyson suction is very adept at making it shed faster than necessary.
Interesting.
Uh, okay.
I'll start with what I, I think the Dyson business is incredible.
The story is incredible.
I think that the making things that look like Halo weapons for stuff around the home is a
very cool way to differentiate, and I appreciate the over-engineering, like, everyday objects.
I'm not saying I'm buying into it, but I appreciate that someone's doing it. Somebody needs to make
a $500 toothbrush. Okay. But that being said, I saw this, and I was like, you know what,
that kind of, that does resonate, because every time I have a Dyson vacuum at home, and I've had
various Dyson products over the year, and the vacuum in particular, it just,
just feels like a little bit like creak like it's like creaky it feels a little bit it feels a little bit
cheap yeah and I always want to put it away because I don't like this like halo weapon you know
home cleaning device doesn't exactly fit into the overall design just say you don't live at the
citizen just say your house doesn't look like it would be welcoming to the flood come on you got you
got to design your whole house to fit the aesthetic yeah you got to have a banshee out front
A banji out front would fix me.
Yeah.
I think you forget how bad it was before Dyson.
Yeah.
It was so bad.
Vacuums were so rattling and clanky.
And they used to have bags on the back that you would have to take out and they'd have this felt inside and the stuff would be going everywhere.
Like this is such a step forward.
Maybe you could say that like it's plasticy and it doesn't feel.
like super rock solidly built now, but it moved the whole category so far forward and so far into
the future, just the fact that you don't have to plug it in. It has a battery. That was an innovation.
Like, most, most vacuums, you would have to take it out and then you would unwind this long cable.
And I think they still make some of these, but you would have to find the low, the nearest plug,
plug the vacuum in, and then you could only vacuum as far as the cable would go, and then you'd want to move to another room.
So one of my early, like, chores, I think.
I don't know why I have so many remedies of this, but I guess I vacuum.
I have formative memories of, like, vacuuming.
Trying to get to a spot.
And you're like, oh, and you're trying to extend it, and then you have to like get the cord over something else.
Yeah, of course.
You don't want to move the cord every two seconds.
There's four plugs in the house that I need to hit to vacuum the whole house.
And so you got to optimally, it's a traveling sales problem all of a sudden.
It's NPR.
Like you got to plug in over here, reach under there, get under the couch, go over there.
Then you got to move the cord over the couch so you can get to the other side.
Then you've got to move the cable all the way to the other side of the room so you can get the other side of the room.
Huge problem, completely solved, one shot it by James Dyson, one of the greatest to ever do it.
And put some respect on his name.
Apologize.
I still think they should make a line that doesn't feel.
is cheap. Yeah, I don't know. There would almost certainly be zero demand for it. But I think that if you're
willing to make the $499 toothbrush, you should be willing to make the $5,000 homeback. I feel like you'd
lose a lot in the engineering. Like, you would wind up doing, I mean, because as soon as you go metal,
you're going to get a lot heavier. It's going to be a lot more annoying. I do think that part of
the problem that you're feeling is that the products have gotten more complex.
There's one that has a laser beam on it that shows you the dirt that's somewhat useful, but it's not that relevant.
And so they've added a lot of weight to them, and I think that puts a little more strain on the device and the engineering.
And so, but I don't know, would carbon fiber satisfy you?
Yes.
Okay.
The carbon fiber, Dyson vacuum.
Anyway, there's an article in the journal.
Packy with somewhat niche, but one of the I would call it.
at the post of the day, David Senra interviewing Herbert Hoover. Hoover, I effing love it. You have to effing meet James Dyson.
Yeah. I wonder what percentage of the David Senra of David Senra episodes include a mention of James Dyson. It's got to be above 50 for sure. Yeah, we talked about this a little bit earlier, but James Dyson sold us a $400 hair dryer. Now he's trying a five,
$100 toothbrush.
The inventor known for household appliances is turning to oral care.
Quote,
we don't really structure things on a business plan.
I mean,
you brush your teeth so much over the course of years.
If this lasts a couple of years,
I wouldn't be surprised if the Dyson camera jet toothbrush sells pretty well.
Also, just physical objects,
things like this,
they kind of fit with Christmas.
I feel like there's less and less things to give to people.
It feels nice and luxurious and special, and it's a new gadget.
Even if you churn from some of the features, it remains a daily driver.
It's not going to collect dust in the way that some internet-connected gadgets do,
even if you don't get a lot of value out of the imaging features.
But I don't know.
We'll see where it goes.
We'll have to check in.
What is going on with the cyber cab?
Cybercab.
Let's check out the interior.
There's an interior tour here.
with Whole Mars catalog.
And IB says...
The doors go up, John.
Did you know the doors go up?
Yes.
I saw that.
This will completely replace Uber for me.
Holy mackerel.
I like this.
There's a couple other data points
about the cyber cab rollout.
So famously, YouTuber and electronics reviewer
Marquez Brownlee attended the previous
cyber cab event.
came away, impressed and optimistic about the future of self-driving, but skeptical of the timeline.
And he said that if Elon could make good on his forecast, which was for sale by the end of
$20,000 for under $30,000, no steering wheel, full self-driving, you can just put it out in the world
and it will go do tasks and earn you money. That was the pitch. And Marquez said, I think that's
too aggressive. Does for sale mean they're being delivered? Yes. Okay. For sale. Because they did
throw up, they did throw up like a pre-order doesn't count. Okay. You got to pay the 30,000.
You got to get the cyber cab by December 31st. And so if you get the-
Elon took that personally. Elon took that personally. Yeah, he has a pre-order where you can buy
a whole stack of them for for a million dollars and run a fleet. But I think Marquez is looking good.
the stakes were high.
Marquez Brownlee said that he would have to,
he would shave his head if this happened on Elon's original schedule.
And of course,
every time a,
every time there was a cyber cab that was spotted,
I actually saw one here in L.A.
Every time there was an update about the progress of the cyber cab program,
people would respond with an AI image of bald Marquez,
which is very funny.
But the...
Should we be making predictions with head shaved?
as a conference.
Yeah.
Yeah.
If Elon doesn't ship this by the end of the year, I'll shave, Tyler said.
I'm willing to do that.
Okay.
Is that, do we have a deal?
Yeah.
Wait, if he doesn't ship it?
If he doesn't ship the cyber cab for under $30,000 by the end of the year.
Actual deliveries.
No steering wheel and drives you money.
Vehicles that can do economically viable paths.
So I'm inverse Marquez Bradley.
No.
No.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Oh.
No.
No, no, yeah, yeah, if he doesn't do it.
Yeah, you're the opposite of Marquez.
If he doesn't do it, you shave.
If in the world where he does do it, then you don't have to shave your head.
No.
I do like the head shaving as a bet.
I don't know exactly.
When's the last time you had a buzz cut?
High school.
Football season.
I would shave it before the season started, easier to put on the helmet.
and then I would grow it out all year and I had long flowing hair.
I...
Electric.
We'll pay a lot of money for pictures of John.
I'll find an old one.
It was a wild luck.
It was a lot of fun.
It was also just like easier.
Lazy, lazy bones.
Not today.
Not today in the life of a broadcaster.
Quickly, ready to fire up Astra?
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I'm actually really bullish on the cyber cab.
I tested Model S recently, and I ordered a model YL, and the self-driving capability is 100% ready to rock.
Like, it is, you know, Brandon and our team was saying that he's at 95% of the miles that he's driven in the car have been in full self-driving mode.
you had a little bit of teleop for that 5% that's not there.
And with a cab, you don't have to negotiate driveways and drop-off points and valets as much.
Yeah.
It's solved.
Like, truly, the only time you're driving a Tesla, if you have the full self-driving on the latest hardware, is you pulling into your garage or negotiating a parking lot, something like that.
interestingly
Tesla has a feature
Smart summon
It can pull out of a
Of a parking space
And come and pick you up
It's a little janky right now
Not quite there
You have to sort of
puppeteer it yourself
But they don't have a banish mode
And there's huge demand for banish
Which is the inverse of summon
And Brandon just coined this
And I was like, that's actually great
And he was like yeah
That's probably what they'll call it
And I was like yeah I guess
But I wouldn't have thought of that
I don't know
Seems like a very E-LOND
on word.
So I love the idea of being able to take the full self-driving vehicle, get out of it just on the curb,
actually at your destination and say banish, go pay for parking.
If you want to pay for parking, go find a spot on the road, go drive around until you find
something.
I'm going to be here for an hour.
Deal with it.
Deal with it.
AI.
That's what everyone wants.
Yeah.
For sure.
For sure.
Anyway, what did Elon actually say about cyber cab?
He said, 20 cents a mile to run 30 or 40 with taxes.
And yes, you can buy one for under $30,000.
Get ready to shave your head, MKBHD.
Somebody's shaving their head.
It's either Tyler or MKBHD.
We'll see.
I think the cost of autonomous transport will be so low that you can think of it like
individualized mass transit.
The average cost of a city bus per mile, not the ticket price because that is
subsidized is about a dollar a mile.
The operating cost of a cyber cab will be around 20% a mile, including taxes and everything else, probably 30 or 40 cents a mile.
Yes, you'll be able to buy one.
We expect the cost below 30,000.
It is crazy that I'm in a world where I think they're going to ship cyber cab before Roadster.
Because they announced Roadster a decade ago.
I know, but we were expecting something around the Roadster in August.
Right?
Yeah, flying.
And he told Rogan he was going to show a demo that was going to blow everyone's mind.
Yeah, so I would expect that hopefully this month.
So you think you'll be.
able to buy a Roadster and get it delivered before you'll be able to buy a CyberCab and get it delivered?
I never said I thought you could ever get a Roadster delivered.
You just think it's never going to come?
No, no, no.
But I would assume if they're going to do a demo, then we're still over a year out from delivery at least.
I mean, just from a financial position, CyberCab makes so much more sense as a business than Roadster.
Roadster, I mean, even at $250,000 for the crazy specs, it's still like there aren't that many buyers that want that.
a lot of people that are spending $250,000, they want a manual, they want an experience, they want a
weekender, they don't necessarily want this. There's going to be so many buyers for the road
search, at least in, at least where we are. There will be, but we're talking about so many buyers,
oh, 10,000 cars a year or something. It's not the way people get around every day, like
taxis, you know, like it's just completely different, TAM, completely different situation in
general. So, I don't know. I might go, well, I'm sure.
even this side of the head if it's cyber cab first, this side of the head of its roadster first,
and I think I'll have a head of here for over a year.
Oh, I thought you were telling you still about time.
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. No.
Well, we'll do something.
There's other cyber cab videos.
They're very fun. Go check them out.
A Tesla cyber cab without a steering wheel or pedals drove us for 30 minutes on a pretty busy Thursday night in Austin, Texas.
The 4.7 mile ride cost 962, starting tomorrow at 5 p.m.
anyone in Austin can hail a cyber cab for themselves.
Nothing can compare to this.
Well, I mean, you can compare Waymo to it, but I guess it's good that it's rolling out,
and we are entering the duopoly phase of full self-driving cybercabs.
In the California Post, we were going to do the mansion section this week as we do,
but unfortunately, there is a mansion shortage.
Okay.
Mexico.
AI is minting a new class of millioners in SF and they're running out of mansions to buy a wave of wealth tied to the city's booming AI industry, sending home prices soaring, triggering bidding wars with as many as 50 offers and leaving even buyers arm with $25 million in cash out in the cold.
Well, frenzy marks a stunning turnaround for a city whose housing market slump during the pandemic as tech workers scattered and offices emptied.
Now AI companies are rapidly expanding.
employees are returning to their desks.
And startups are generating enormous paper wealth for workers and investors with potentially
even larger windfalls ahead.
I looked on Compass.
There are only 14 homes in SF on Compass over 10 million.
And some of them are like duplicates.
And some aren't even like some aren't single family home.
You just have to be bullish on on places that are further away from actual.
San Francisco.
Like you look at what happened with Mill Valley, and you have to imagine that with self-driving,
a one-hour commute to a man...
And Chinese quadcopter drones for humans.
And horse, robotic horses.
Don't forget about those.
There's just going to be more tolerance for a longer commute that where, if your commute
is you're fully on your laptop, basically.
Or you're basically talking to your AI.
agent. And yeah, maybe you're ready to take over once a month briefly, but 99% of your miles on your
commute. Yes, you have an hour commute, which sounds ridiculous when you're living in a mansion,
but you're being very productive, catching up on all your emails, really going back with all
your coworkers, hopping on phone calls. Yeah, hopping on a Zoom saying nothing from my end.
It's going to be electric. The future is here. This changes everything. Well, if our
next guest, our first guest is Hunter Somerville from Stepstone Group. It's part of there. It's
his first appearance on the show. So we'll bring them in to the TEP<ome. What's going on?
Hunter, how are you doing? Great. How are you guys? We're doing the early labor day. Happy early
Labor Day. Labor days are holidays, three day weekends in general have actually been a key part of
understanding the AI cycle. Yeah. Because when people get a holiday weekend, they have a little bit more
time to actually like try some of the new tools and we've actually seen these like longer weekends
catalyze adoption adoption and just like understanding yeah understanding but let's start by trying to
understand your career it's your first time on the show i would love to kick it off with a little bit
of introduction on yourself and step down happy to um so i'm a baltimore guy born and raised
plenty of mansions in baltimore for anyone who's looking on the venture side that's right just
putting that pitch out there.
And I was a partner at Greenspring Associates, which Stepstone acquired about five and a half years ago.
And now I'm one of the co-heads of the venture and growth equity group under Stepstone.
Stepstone's a publicly traded company.
It has different asset class teams across real estate, PE, and venture.
I only do venture and growth equity within the organization.
And our group does fund, direct, and secondary investing.
So we mix all three together, which is a pretty unique position to be in.
We back who we think are some of the most interesting early stage GPs out there that invest
at CED in Series A.
And then we come in and invest in companies at BCD rounds, either through primary or secondary
purchases after the fact.
So we leverage the ecosystem and the relationships to then identify the companies we want to
build concentration in.
What is the Venn diagram of look at?
through exposure via your fund investments and your primary and second, your growth equity and
your secondaries business, because I imagine that there's already some sort of relationship.
The company has been scouted.
There's a growing relationship.
And then you're ready to do a direct or a secondary transaction.
Is that usually how it plays out?
You've completely nailed it.
That's exactly right.
We work with over 300 venture and growth managers, which probably feels like a lot.
but it's great from an ecosystem standpoint because when we're looking at a company, we have
three, four, five different managers already as part of that syndicate that are sitting around
the board table that are actively working with the founders and gives us tremendous insight
on those businesses that we would like to do more with and invest directly into.
If you segment our business, it's about 50-50 between direct and fund investing.
And secondary is a little more complicated because that includes both fund and
direct secondaries that we do, where we provide liquidity to people within the cap table of a business,
or we provide liquidity to endowments, foundations, pension funds, whoever else may want to
sell LP interests that they hold in funds.
Got it.
Yeah.
I'm very interested how new managers are on the fund side are pitching you today.
Like, they're coming in.
It feels like we are, in some cases, it feels like we're a decade into this cycle, right?
a lot of the big liquidity events of this last year have been from companies that started before
anyone was broad like people broadly were were thinking and debating and investing in AI and a lot of
people have been rewarded for backing you know i'm thinking of you know chip companies like cerebrus
uh that you know backing those companies in the 2010s you've been you've been doing well but
what are the new managers that are maybe coming off of building companies or operating what's
they're pitched to you around like the next five to 10 years because you're you're betting on
at the early stage you're betting that there's going to be a bunch of big new companies created
I would say just first and foremost it's a harder fundraising environment for new managers
that are getting off of the ground the LP capital continues to concentrate more heavily
around the multi-billion dollar brands that are increasingly adding strategies or other parts of their
platform so getting LP attention and I think
is tougher. If you layer that on top of the fact that a lot of seed rounds are being bypassed
and going straight to larger A rounds or just larger seed rounds in general, it's harder for emerging
managers to even play in a lot of those situations because most emerging managers are focused on
seed or small A and are operating out of fund sizes of 30 to 300 million. So they're not exactly
going to be leading a seed round in a $100 million kind of financing overall.
So they need to prove their right to exist, I'd say, even more than they ever have historically.
You could argue maybe that's a little bit different in hard tech and deep tech, where I do
think there's a bifurcation in terms of viability and where you can be an active participant,
get good ownership in a business like that, and then you get blessed later by the multi-billion
dollar brands.
but in AI-specific-focused companies, I think seed is harder.
And so you really need to find a way to stand out.
You need to prove your ability to source or build relationships with founders very early.
And certainly if you're an operator and you come from a company where there's a diaspora of talent and proven founders and a culture that fosters that, you can make the case you're creating a new mafia that you're better suited to back than someone else that already exists.
On top of that, you know, AI founders are generally younger. GPs also increasingly have an advantage if they're younger and can relate better with that founder cohort. So I think there's an argument to be made in that regard as well.
Yeah, are you, are you, you know, it felt like rewind five years and it felt like every, it felt like half the people I knew were raising for at least like a micro solo GP fund. And it didn't, it seemed like, you know, it seemed like, you know, it's.
seemed like if you wanted to raise five to 10 million, it was like very easy, you know,
you did have to like do the rounds and maybe it took six months. Whereas, but you were going
to be able to pull the money together if you were competent and you had any kind of track record.
And it, and the interesting dynamic is like back then there wasn't this crazy new technology cycle.
Like the craziness in the market was a function of interest rates. And so the companies that
were growing incredibly quickly were a company that was like a lending business and like they just
had a bit of an arbitrage, right? Whereas today you have, it's interesting because it seems
way harder for new managers to get off the ground and even pull together, you know, the $50 million
fund and yet it actually feels like a much better time to be investing because of the sort of
like turmoil of the technology markets right now, creating opportunities for new entrants.
Yeah, I totally agree.
And I would say it's still not that hard to raise a $5 to $10 million fund.
If you have any kind of network, you can cobble that together with friends and family or people that you've worked with or new minted millionaires that are out there in the ecosystem.
But if you really are going to cross the chasm to being more of like a $50 million plus seed fund, you do need to bring in institutional capital from endowments, pensions, fund of funds or that kind of ilk.
and getting their attention is much harder.
And some high net worth capital can be rather fickle where they will come in at less obvious times and not be as consistent with continuing to re-up into those managers or consistent with doing new managers.
So I think the opportunity set couldn't be more exciting across all of the categories that I just mentioned, deep tech, hard tech, AI, whatever it may be.
But I do think it's harder to get attention from the bigger allocators that allow you to do more proactive.
And I think if you're a $5 to $10 million fund, you're getting really de minimis ownership and you're going to have no ability to follow on and no ability to concentrate behind your winners and just a more problematic portfolio construction math to navigate.
Sure.
How are you managing all your direct opportunities?
And specifically, I want to understand how you're evaluating these things.
when you see a company, maybe you saw a company at the beginning of the year, you have an
opportunity to go to direct.
Now, later, they're raising it three, four times that maybe they've three or four times
revenue, but these revenue multiples are still, so it has been the right decision to invest in
almost everything, it feels like, at least so far from a markup standpoint.
But we know from history that in the past, it's felt like the right decision to invest in
everything until it's not. And the quality names, right, will still, they might have to do a
down round and then grow back into that historical valuation. But then we know that there's just
hundreds of companies that get left to basically to die. And it didn't really matter where
you invested, even if it had a bunch of momentum. So how are you, like, what are you telling your
managers that are bringing you opportunities or the companies that you're already in to go
direct or through SPV opportunities?
Yeah, I mean, it's like everyone forgot the 2021, 2021, 2022 time frame where they were left with
a bunch of companies that were way overvalued.
They took discretionary markdowns of 25 to 50 percent off of last round.
Books were completely underwater.
I mean, you certainly could argue, and rightfully so, this is a much different, more exciting
innovation cycle, but it doesn't take away the responsibility to know when you should be
layering in aggressively and when you should be doing maybe pro rata or below pro rata or nothing.
And I think what people will ultimately be judged on with a lot of these rounds is how
aggressively they built their largest part of their positions early.
And the follow-on rounds get scrutinized much more.
And that's how we would ask our investors to evaluate us, too.
If you're coming in with, you know, 80% of your capital in that last crossover round,
that maybe the company goes public at or below that, or you're not even making a 2x return off of it,
even if duration is shorter, or things change cyclically and you're left, you know, having to take a
discretionary markdown and have a TVPI on a net basis below one because of that.
That is the kind of optical look that does not age well, and people need to be cognizant of that
overall.
That being said, follow-on activity is just through the roof.
I can't remember in August this busy with all.
of the top sort of value driving companies out there, raising money even at the end of the summer.
I guess it's intuitive with the expectation that IPO activity will be much more robust in the
fourth quarter, but it's still crazy busy to your point around the amount of financing rounds
that we're seeing right now.
Yeah, totally.
What are you seeing on the spread of fee structures for early managers with the K-shaped, you know,
we've seen reporting of funds charging not the traditional two.
and 20, but you see four and 40, I think, in the most extreme case. And then you also see early
managers giving on fees. How wide is the spread? Is it widening? Is there a K-shape and fees
where the next generation of managers are making zero-zero, just doing it for the love of the game?
The most egregious part of the entire continuum, I think, is SPVs and what people are doing on
SPVs, even separate from the funds, it's the insane like four to 10% management fees that people
are charging and syndicating out to the long tail of investors that are out there.
I mean, it's almost criminal how bad it is in terms of how some of these SPVs are being structured
and then they're opaque, they're multi-layers, people didn't even know what shares they own
underneath of it.
And so I think that is the worst part where there will be a round.
and lessons learned. And I think it's well overdue. When it comes to funds, you know,
there is adverse selection on fee concessions. And I don't think you see that from high quality
groups and venture. The spinouts that are the most interesting with the most pedigreeed people
or the best operators never have to concede in that regard. They can still raise quickly.
There's certainly contrarian ideas where that may make sense. But our mentality as a partner is to
not crush people on fee negotiation, you know, as long as it's within a reasonable range.
We'd rather make sure we build a robust partnership where we can do stuff more collaboratively
on direct and secondary than on fighting in hand-to-hand combat on fees overall.
And I think when it comes to the carried interest piece, it's all about it being aligned
in performance base.
So use escalators, make it predicated on hitting certain return thresholds, hopefully not a 2x,
which anyone should do in venture in terms of what you're looking for return-wise,
but 3x, 5x, even when someone puts a 10x threshold in,
we love that dynamic because we know they're going to try to nuke it
and really shoot for the alpha and upside.
The venture should provide for people that are willing to allocate that risk capital.
I have one more on this.
Can we stay with the humble SPV hustler?
They got Miami penthouses to pay for.
But I'm interested.
We've had Matt Grimm on the show.
He's talked about all the whackamol he's been playing with Anderil secondary activity and shares falling in the wrong hands.
What else are you seeing in the secondary market?
And particularly for founders, what steps should they be taking early on to avoid the cap table getting super complex and muddy over time?
Or is this just the inevitable new normal?
I mean, sometimes at the beginning you have to scrape things together and do what you need to do to get things going.
But from a secondary standpoint, like there is a point in the trajectory of a business where you begin consolidating that cap table.
And that's what we look to do as a secondary buyer.
We go in, we build a relationship with the founder, and we try to be a helpful partner and let them lead us to who they would like to provide liquidity to.
Who's well suited for that?
Who might not make sense to continue on the journey?
Who's already made a great return at seed and maybe should liquidate at that point in time?
you need to put the power of the decision making in the founders' hands and let them guide you in the direction of where you should be buying from.
I think it's terrible practice for people to go out and cold call on LinkedIn or bother employees and try to create disruption within a company artificially and then hope that a board blesses it end of day.
And it's all on hopes and dreams of that happening.
If you actually work hand in hand with the founders directly, they can be your Sherpa and guide to the right people you should be buying from in the first place.
When it comes to SPVs in syndication, yes, smaller funds who can't do their pro rata will likely SPV at some point.
But it becomes unwieldy, confusing, and complicated.
And then there's multiple layers on SPVs as these companies become better, well-known and bigger and later stage.
that needs to be cracked down on over time.
You just lose complete control.
And frankly, you're not even bringing in the right people into the rounds all of the time
because every insider is then taking a huge percentage and syndicating it out more aggressively.
And so you need to think of like when the right time is to stop that or to be more selective
and narrow around it.
But you can't like not have an opinion on it or not manage it with a firm hand and understand
who your beneficial owner.
are end of day. It's just not helpful. And then your information is getting out to everyone without
your control as well, which doesn't always make sense. Yeah. Can you talk about the power law
in the secondary market? Like you have to imagine that like opening eye Anthropic, Anderol,
Stripe, Neurlink, Databricks. Like you have to imagine just like a handful of those names
account for like 90, I would guess like 95% of the volume. But does that, does that track in your experience?
and then how much activity is actually happening in the long tail of names outside of like shares trading hands,
like when financings are happening and like little tender offers here and there.
Yeah.
I mean, it is broadening significantly, but all of the discussion is still on those top names.
And, you know, you need to be in the top names in venture, particularly as a late stage investor.
But you need to be in them when it's not overtly obvious.
and when you're building those positions aggressively up front before it becomes massively
confusing and overly syndicated.
But I think every company is realizing the value of being thoughtful in terms of offering
liquidity as an option to tenured employees within a business on an annual basis, a semi-annual
basis.
You decide who is the right level of tenure within your company.
And it almost becomes like a benefit within a company like anything else where they know
that their shares are worth something, it's not so amorphous. You can go home and tell your spouse
or significant other that this is not all paper gains. You know, it's not going to immediately
evaporate. We can realize part of our position. We can utilize that capital to live our lives
and do what we need to do. And we can ride the other 80 percent because we believe in the mission
and the company that we work at more aggressively. It creates more aligned employees. And I think
people have realized that and there is certainly a more active buyer universe to provide that.
But it requires that companies are thoughtful.
They think about it, you know, not at the very beginning where it's almost absurd to be offering
secondary liquidity or taking it.
You need to have proof points.
You need to get it to a stage in size that's relevant.
But then it does become a very interesting recurring benefit to offer your employee base with strict control led by the founders.
Yeah. How is the global pool of capital changing and its appetite for venture? I'm just thinking about there was a moment when, you know, Sequoia had a Chinese arm. They obviously separated. There's a conflict in the Middle East. There was a long time when there was a stage, I'm thinking of like the Uber era where it was like, oh, like the Middle East shows up with a big pocketbook. But now there's a there's obviously geopolitical conflict.
conflict there, there's protectionism, tariffs, all sorts of different dynamics.
What are you seeing on the global stage of capital allocation towards venture?
Because it's certainly not showing up in the headline prices, but I would expect some
sort of move here, but how are you puzzling all that together?
It's actually still pretty robust, but it's concentrated among a smaller subset of managers.
And that's sort of natural because a lot of the international check riders are going to
be writing larger checks.
And so they're not going to be able to come in and do sub-200 million dollar seed managers,
or they're not going to be staff to be able to do it,
or the proximity of what's required to do diligence and build relationships
and build pattern recognition is just naturally more difficult.
I think another way to approach it, you know,
I think there are great branded managers that are bigger that are very much worth doing
and should be a ballast in any venture portfolio.
But you can also supplement that by working with a partner on a separate account basis
and build customized exposure in smaller managers on top of that and almost barbellet in both ways,
where you get the core exposure with the managers that have the halo effect
and the ability to get into the best companies early.
And then you also get that alpha exposure from the smaller end in a more customized way
that fits the needs of a team that's maybe more remote or further away.
So there are creative solutions to do it, but I would say it's still much more weighted
towards the bigger brands that are more proven and de-risked when it comes to how people
are thinking about allocation decisions.
What are the upsides and downsides of being in this business from Baltimore versus
living in SF?
I can imagine, I can imagine.
a lot of, a lot of honestly alpha and, you know, you, you, uh, and being able to actually
understanding like diffusion.
Yeah.
Like the real world.
But, but what, what's your view?
Yeah, we, we have, uh, parts of our team in California, in San Diego, in Palo Alto,
in New York, in London.
Biggest part is actually still in Baltimore, which does seem counterintuitive.
We like it that way.
I mean, I think our culture is predicated on grit and grind behind me.
I have a bunch of Cal Ripkin merchandise, the Iron Man.
And that's sort of how we think, you know, go to work every day, work your ass off, crush it, don't be complacent.
And don't get caught in the echo chamber.
This is a cyclical asset class.
It's a cyclical business.
It's easy to get caught up in euphoria all of the time and feel like momentum is never going to stop.
And I think being in Baltimore where things are tough and not always easy and there's challenges
beyond what we do on a day-to-day basis grounds us.
When it comes to difficulties, you know, I'm on a plane four days a week going all over
the country or internationally to meet with founders, to meet with funds, to meet with our
investor base.
And so it creates sacrifice, but I mean, we're blessed to be in this business.
There's nothing I would rather be doing to back innovative founders taking risk,
embracing the American dream, going hard at things, and to be able to do it, you know, still
in a small blue collar environment like Baltimore is pretty special.
I love it.
I have two more questions.
I'll leave time for you, Jordy, but one, the liquidity wave.
There were a ton of breathless articles about the wave of liquidity coming to early stage managers,
late stage managers across SpaceX and all OpenAI Anthropic, some big IPOs coming.
How real is that?
How significant is that?
I mean, the SpaceX is a $2 trillion company.
It's holding.
You mentioned the IPO window, potentially continuing to be open.
But how much does that actually change the calculus of what you do and others in the category do?
Yeah, awesome question.
And we haven't talked about that yet.
So the biggest issue, I think, with venture is duration.
It takes forever to go from seed to eventual exit.
The bar to go public is, you know, 500 million.
or whatever people think these days on the banker's side, 400, 500 million of top line.
AI businesses are obviously growing faster than anything we've ever seen, but the duration
is still long, and you need to be able to distribute capital back to investors in order to get them
to invest in your next funder.
That cycle is not sustainable overall.
And so people have been waiting four or five years for liquidity.
DPI has been in short supply.
And it does feel like that is changing both with M&A.
We saw Hugging Face, obviously.
Most recently, we saw the SpaceX IPO rumors of a bunch of other IPOs happening in the fourth quarter,
and hopefully into the first half of next year, which would be awesome.
And so hope that continues.
But you're right.
It's actually an interesting thing to think about on the secondary side, because if there's a massive kind of environment around liquidity generation,
I would say that is a negative for the secondary side, but not a huge one overall, because there's still what,
we described before where people are going to offer tender offers on an annual basis, start
putting that in place ahead of time and creating an environment where that's iterative over
time.
And for our asset class and the endurance and long-term viability of it, I welcome a lot of capital
coming back to all of the hardworking pensions and endowments.
And that'll give them a lot more flexibility to be able to invest in new funds, new innovation,
continue and start to do more on the emerging manager side again
and broaden out, you know, holistically what they're considering with in venture.
So I'd say it's a double-edged sword, but we'll root for liquidity any.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, that makes sense.
You had one more?
I have one more.
Yeah, go for it.
I'm interested in how much you think thematically.
Obviously, AI is driving headlines every single day,
but there's these interesting knock-on effects of deeper in the supply chain.
energy, hard tech, you mentioned, but also there's some excitement among early stage managers
that we talk to for the coming potential of AI to accelerate biotechnology.
And so maybe that looks like writing more checks into biotech companies.
Maybe the bioVCs, the flagship pioneering, do better.
But maybe there's more crossover from the traditional tech investors that dabbled in
crypto and did some hard tech and then also do AI.
Maybe they will figure out bio.
but how do you think about guardrails, either at the manager side or at your level of there's a way of coming, when do we need to start paddling?
Yeah, no, totally.
And all of our partners focus on different areas when it comes to the direct investment side.
We're not like a traditional VC firm because the GPs are the core of what we do.
And so they lead us in the direction of where we want to go.
But then we develop thematic points of view.
and me personally, I've covered more of the hard tech, deep tech categories that you're alluding to.
I like those businesses.
It's probably because I'm more old school and appreciate a moat and, you know, a multi-year advantage.
And I think a bunch of those areas you mentioned, energy specifically mining, anything touching, rare earths, refining, production of magnets, areas around defense, specific areas around aerospace.
that SpaceX may not be competitive in all of those are places where I've liked to spend more time
and I feel more comfortable.
And it feeds into the fun side of things because I also cover a lot of the smaller emerging
managers that are doing it in deep tech and hard tech.
So you get the recognition of what's working at a seed level before it's overtly obvious
to the rest of the market.
And then you can build those relationships on the primary and secondary side more proactively.
And unlike some of these massive seed and series A AI rounds, it doesn't happen that way and as quickly and linearly in deep tech and hard tech.
The seed investors can invest in one or two rounds.
And then people realize it's technically de-risk.
It's crossed the chasm.
It's interesting.
And then you will have very large check writers blessing that and doing really meaningful check sizes at that point in time.
So there's other bites of the apple that are more attainable than a.
really hot AI company at the very beginning. Don't get me wrong. We love both. I have other
partners that are equally active on that side. And the key is blending it and not making sure you're
doing too much of one thing and that you're being thoughtful and bobbing and weaving accordingly.
Biotech's a weird category, I would say overall. I think over the past few years where it's been
most interesting is on the crossover side because there's an ability to become pretty aggressive,
almost predatory at like the very late stages of some of these businesses overall and get good
value or put structure in place.
And you've also had the ability to go public earlier and more aggressively in those categories.
And so it's created a weird dichotomy where it actually made sense for crossovers to dip down
and be more aggressive.
And you've not seen the same level of new fund formation in biotech as you've seen in all of
these other categories that we've discussed today.
Got it.
All of that being said, tech bio.
When you say crossover, you mean, when you, when you say crossover, you mean public markets hedge funds doing private placements in early stage biotechnology companies that are going through FDA approval and will ultimately IPO, not, you know, a software VC crossing over into biotech, which is also going to happen, but separate things.
Yes.
You nailed that exactly.
It's that type, even mutual funds that I was alluding to.
But to your second point, we are now seeing sort of the formation of dedicated specialists in tech bio that are more typically coming from the tech side.
And probably rightfully so, although any good cap table that does tech bio probably needs to mix the two together where you have more the traditional old school biotech managers and then also the very forward thinking more tech focus groups on top of that, doing it together in a syndicate variety.
And then the last thing I was saying is you also just don't have as many new funds that are coming into existence in pure biotech.
Tech bio will probably increase at a much higher clip than we've seen in biotech over the past three to five years.
How do you handle breaking up with managers as an LP feels like really like a, I mean, it's tough on the direct side too.
If you back a founder, they come back for more money and you say,
like, you know, you have to sit it out for whatever reason. It's not great. But on the fun side,
it's like you've been with them through basically multiple, almost multiple companies in some way.
And maybe they had a bad sort of period, but they came back from it and then it's bad again or
whatever it is. But like, what is that actual process like having, I'm sure, had to do it on a
number of occasions? It's like what every person I dated before I got married said to me, it's,
It's not you, it's me.
You know, in this scenario, there's always the ability to stop backing a manager based on your pacing and how quickly funds have come back to market and your lack of available capital.
And, you know, if you're a fund of funds, you're raising your own money.
If you're an endowment, you have a denominator effect to consider.
And you are also all suffering from the fact you're not getting enough money back from a DPI standpoint.
And so it's more of a realized.
results return money, we'll have more money to deploy and consider you or others, you know,
when that happens as an easy out. But we tend to be much more transparent and objective.
I just think that's the type of people we are. So we try to benchmark it against other managers.
We've backed. I mentioned we work with over 300 or so groups. And so we have a very robust data set
where we can actually show people in vintages how they would compare on a generalized, anonymized,
against other people, both in terms of TVPI and then also what they've returned back.
And we recognize that TVPI or total value ever paid in capital is subjective.
It's based on valuation practices.
So we pierce through down to the underlying asset level and try to create a real apples-to-apples
comparison where we know how five managers are carrying the same company and we come to our own
conclusion on what that valuation should be.
But if you give people objective kind of criteria on how they compare against others that you work with, it's hard to debate that.
And ultimately, they get like two or three funds to prove it anyway because you're not going to come into one fun lily pad hop out of it and be done immediately unless they have some kind of catastrophic situation at the team level or organizationally where they've really screwed something up or have lost your trust as a counterparty.
otherwise you're going to get a few funds if you raise them every two years to prove it.
And then ultimately, like, the results will tell the story.
And we love our partners.
And there are deep friendships on top of everything else.
But as an allocator and as a fiduciary for other people's money, you ultimately need to let the results point the way.
You're like, help me help you have a number of liquidity events.
And then I'll maybe give you some of that money back.
That makes sense.
great great explanation well thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us this is fantastic
let's do it again soon my pleasure yeah this was really thank you so much guys appreciate you
having me have a great weekend have a great later day we'll talk to you soon goodbye
you got a bunch of hunter fans you got a bunch of hunter fans in the chat your business AI
their business is securing it crowd strike secures AI and stops breaches yeah huge huge fans in the chat
uh thank you to everyone who uh was uh hanging around and
chatting, giving us feedback. We appreciate it. Our next guest is Barr Winkler from Wonderful,
co-founder and CEO and first appearance on TBPN. How are you doing, Barr?
Mr. Wonderful.
Mr. Wonderful. How are you doing? Welcome to the show. Congratulations on the news.
We'll get to that. But first, let's start with an introduction on yourself and the company.
Great. Thanks for having me. I'm Barr just moving to New York a few weeks ago.
and landed from Delhi about two hours ago from a 16 and a half hours flight.
So still working from a living room.
Grinding.
Yeah.
So cool, wonderful is an AI opening system coupled with deployment teams around the world.
We are, I believe, one of the fastest growing up by the AI companies today.
We are operating in 33 markets with local offices in all of them.
And that gets me on the frequent flyer on every airline pretty consistently.
Yeah.
What is the smallest company that you hop on an airline for?
To be completely honest, I don't really open airlines for standalone customer meetings very often.
It's almost always hiring and team building.
It's just much higher leverage.
Yeah.
But I imagine the forward-deployed nature of your business, that becomes valuable once a company is,
post 50 employees, like they're past any self-serve tools, they need deep integrations,
or is the most value going to the really big companies?
We were talking about Campbell's Soup earlier.
I'm sure they have thousands of employees.
Who is the ripest type of corporation that needs help transforming?
In general, we bucket companies into over $750 million and under, and at this moment,
we are focusing all of our efforts on the first.
We don't work with companies that are under $750 million in revenue.
Sure.
With a few exceptions, right?
The only exception would be if we have a customer in which we have CEO engagement,
so like an absolute top-down mandate.
Sure.
And we know that we are like the prime apply-di-I partner.
Yes, that would be.
And also we try to, I mean, at least until now, this might change down the line,
but we try to avoid working with like VC-back tech companies.
We really try to work in, yeah, we try to work in what we call critical industries.
Yeah.
We think the alpha is much bigger there.
Sure.
The proficiency of tools is usually much bigger there.
There is just like, yeah, the VC back companies, they already have a board member that's
asking them every quarter, like, what are you doing with AI?
So they already have that person in the year.
Yeah.
Yeah.
What kind of, what kind of advantage are you getting customers?
Like, where is AI actually having impact outside of VAT?
the obvious places, making it easier to make a slide deck, make it easier to review things
like loan application or obviously coding agents.
But like, where are some areas that your team is applying AI, getting, finding, finding
alpha in that companies broadly don't maybe fully appreciate yet?
Yeah.
So Wonderful started as an agent's company mostly for customer support, mostly for voice.
we then expanded to other modalities to chat email
we then expanded to back office processes
we then expanded to system replacement
or just like agentic apps
and we're now also expanding into new
new fields for example
AI Gateway and coding as well
we have so many different use cases with customers
like a few days ago I was in Mexico
and met with this large ISP
that has over 100 entities around the world
sorry around Mexico for tax reasons
right. They just divide the revenue between many entities to not get above a certain
text threshold.
Oh, interesting.
And so the first use case that their CEO asks us to help them with is build an app for like
reconciliation so they can reconcile between all of those different entities easier and faster.
And actually didn't think it was a very big use case.
I was like a bit surprised and talked with the CEO and asked them like what's it about.
And make a long story short, they're probably going to merge with this other large company.
They have 100 degrees too.
This other large company is an Oracle ERP shop.
And the company we visited is an SEP ERP shop.
So he told me, listen, I cannot stand the thought of having to integrate between two systems
which I obviously don't like for the next five years.
So my ultimate goal is to leverage AI to create this new agentic ERP for the unified company.
And this is something that I've never heard.
before coming from a CEO at this stage.
Usually they know about like software replacement
or creating a layer on top of legacy software
but to actually replace an ERP
for a company this old and complex.
That's the first time I heard this.
And I think that's pretty consistent to my experience in Wonderful.
Because we work with enterprises and they follow the news,
they constantly ask us for the newest stuff they read and hear about.
So whenever something becomes like a talking point,
we usually are going to be one of the first to have to prop.
properly productize it and deploy it.
The same thing is happening now with cost control,
which surface the need for better routing,
and the gateway product, et cetera.
But yeah, to your question, tons of different use cases.
What do you think Wonderful looks like in five years?
Because now it sounds like you're building your own software,
you're also doing a lot of services, one-off projects.
I imagine you're probably leaving some software behind.
then you're maybe managing that, but like, and then you're working on a gateway.
What does the business look like in five years?
So we don't do, Wonderful doesn't sell any services, right?
Everything we sell is consumption and the platform itself.
And sometimes we attach use case fees to certain complex use cases,
but these are all recurring.
We don't charge for a single FDE or DS that is deployed with our customers as a principle.
It's very hard for me to tell you what Wonderful looks like in five years.
because five years is just a huge amount of time in this day and age.
My gut is that in five years, Wonderful, is an independent company,
one of the largest applied AI companies in the world,
mostly seen as an infrastructure.
So mostly known for our AI operating system
with millions of different people around the world
building their company on top of Wonderful, as an infra.
I think in a similar way, in a similar way to how Microsoft is perceived today,
or how Microsoft was perceived a few years ago, right?
That's pretty ambitious.
But I would say that's more the North Star than let's say a frontier.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So you end up building something net new for a customer,
productizing something for a customer,
but then you're fine not charging for that buildout
because you plan to use that same product.
You'll be able to resell it to other players
and capture margin that way.
Is that right?
So the flywheel between front-time
engineers or FTEs into the core product team is something that happens pretty naturally because
no one wants to do double work, right? And the challenges between different enterprises around the world
are relatively consistent regardless of where they are geographically. So whenever they're so wonderful
has a library with like hundreds of different agents and apps that were written on the platform.
And that's the first place that an FTE or any DS for example would go to find out like a good
starting point for their own solution. Most of the bespoke stuff that we build are actually
on the customers then, we don't build that much to bespoke features into the core product for one customer.
The vision for me is to go after large use cases one-by-one, and I think the North Star should be that wonderful acts as a zero-to-one or like an agency machine for enterprises,
with all of those use cases we built left to their own engineers and own business stakeholders to manage.
on our info.
When did you start the company?
We founded a company in January 2025.
So a bit less than two years ago.
And what's the latest news on the fundraising side?
We announced a three-round a few days ago.
Give us the number.
As announced.
We raised, we raised $550 million.
Oh yeah, let's go.
Bang.
Big number.
Incredible speed.
Incredible speed.
Last question before you jump in, I'm sure we'll be back on for the next round.
But there's a bunch of different products tying into the platform.
Do you ever see yourself getting into the inference business or is that something you're fine working with partners?
Do you imagine actually setting up your own data centers or is that not like?
an area that you feel like you're getting a lot of value out of.
So I don't have a religious answer on this.
I guess the first principle is wonderful.
We see ourselves as the apply the eye partner for the enterprise.
So whenever something becomes commoditized,
we want to be the first to productize it very well
and give it access to the enterprise.
A good example, for example, it is like coding, right?
coding was a very hard science problem up until maybe yesterday, right?
Or a few months ago.
As soon as coding becomes a sheer engineering problem,
then why wouldn't it be part of wonderful?
Just as the first principle.
So if inference becomes so commoditized that we think it's better for us to own it,
then sure we'll own it.
But we don't have a principal decision to do it anytime soon.
Yeah, that makes sense.
last question because we didn't get to it in the beginning i'm curious what were you doing before this
i was the founder of a pretty standard b-to-b sass company that i sold in 2021 and then i worked
for three and a half years we're super one defenders thank you for your service in the sass trenches
yeah we love it uh great to me yeah congrats of all the progress likewise thanks for having me
and yeah get some sleep enjoy the weekend hopefully you'll be rest up we'll talk to you later goodbye
Let me tell you about Railway. Railway is the all-in-one intelligent cloud provider, user-favorite agent to deploy web app, servers, databases, and more, while Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring, and security.
I believe we have our next guest. We're ready to rock.
Here they are. Welcome to the show. What's going on? How are you? How are you? Thank you so much for taking the time. Let's kick it off with some introductions on both of you, and then we can go into the news today.
I'm Ken Ono, I'm founding mathematician at Axiom Math.
Yeah.
I'm Karina Holm, founder and CEO of Axiomath.
And what is the latest in your world?
What is the...
Is there anything left to do, Ken?
Yeah, jobs finished.
Well, no, actually, I think it's a wonderful time for mathematics now that we have tools that can empower mathematicians.
The questions are still there.
Last I checked, the remand hypothesis is still unsolved.
So it's a new era.
Yeah, that is the benchmark for everyone.
Certainly for the AI labs, you can see that they're both, you know,
both the frontier companies are working on this.
But do you see...
Three of us, you mean.
Yeah, everybody.
Everybody's working on this.
But do you see these particular challenges as good benchmarks?
Or is there a more broad overarching vision?
Or is it worth focusing on these specific things like the Riemann hypothesis?
Well, just very quickly, I'm a pure mathematician, so I don't think in the world of benchmarks.
The problems are there.
And I love the problems.
Some of the problems get solved.
But every time you solve a problem, there are new problems.
So I think it's an exciting time.
It's very disruptive for the community.
It's hard.
Let's face it.
But moving forward, six to eight months from now, I think scientific research will be thriving.
Yeah, I think.
Yeah, please.
Yeah.
The history, I think, has been that.
every mathematical discovery
like unlocks like either
an applied like an actual
real word application like hundreds of
years down the road or it even starts
like new fields in science. So
we're very excited about all these mathematical
discoveries happening.
For the audiences who don't know what's new
we had an exciting week.
The very long, astonishingly
notoriously hard problem,
bounded gap in primes have been
the war record has been updated three times this
week, first by Julius Stombe, the human mathematician, getting 240 down from 246, and then by
Axiom Mass at 212, and then by opening at Astra at 186.
So it's a, yeah.
Back and forth.
I have a blitz.
Is it ever like this in math?
This is, this feels like a football game.
Yeah, that is all new.
There's an analogy, if I can just very quickly say, Freeman Nystein was a very famous mathematician
and physicist.
And he described mathematics as mathematicians could be the birds or a mathematician could be a frog.
And right now, we're in a position where we're amplifying the flyers, the one division.
Yeah, I like that.
What else can you tell me about the reaction from the mathematics profession and also what the role of the mathematician was in the pre-AI era and what it might look like in the post-AI era?
because I know a lot of very successful mathematicians who have had full careers as professors.
And proving theorems and working on these hard problems wasn't something that was really on their resume necessarily.
Like they contributed so much else to the world and they lived full lives and had wonderful careers.
And it wasn't purely about the gamesmanship, although it's game on.
Proof Olympics time.
Yeah, proof Olympics.
So like I said, I think the questions that I wake up in the morning thinking about, they're still there, it's just the paradigm.
It's the tools that we use that didn't exist before are amplifying us.
Yeah, I think that's where we are.
It's a great time.
So to track kind of like the community of mathematicians, but also the community of researchers working on AI for Mass,
Paz Shafto, who is a program manager at DARPA,
organized this sort of meetup every two months or every three months.
And we just went to the last edition of that.
It was like two weeks ago in Seattle.
Terry Tao was there.
Alice Ponce was there.
Boris Alexei from OpenAI was there.
A lot of the academics who are working on harness engineering
that are great mathematicians are there.
A lot of industry AI researchers are.
there, including people from Open AI. We were there and AWS was there. The energy is incredible.
I think it's like, it was like a three-day research program. Everyone was reporting their newest.
The open source model, Godoproo Prover has a version three. That's Princeton Lab, San Giv Ororas.
The community is thriving. I think we're like seeing these incredible number of open problems that
suddenly become attainable because of the technology advancing.
How do you guys make money?
Yeah, that's a great question.
I think the word is going to...
She pays me.
Oh, wow.
The word is going to, I think, run on a different kind of flywheel of generation and verification.
So we don't really think of formal verification as kind of like guarding or like capping the downside.
We think of it in terms of performance and we think of it as optimization.
So by having the cost of proof reduced to zero, you can generate new algorithms.
You can make new scientific discoveries.
It's going to have important implications in the world of coding, in the world of AI for science,
and other like physical engineering disciplines that we couldn't think of in the past.
So put another way, the world runs on code that people don't understand.
Many people haven't even read.
So software verification, hardware verification, as Karina says, is kind of the challenge for the future.
And that's really like doing that.
So lean startup of the future, all code written in lean or something like that.
Formal verification coming to all software with cybersecurity benefits, potentially?
Is that the idea?
There are a lot of different viewpoints on this.
So I've met researchers who think that all the word software should be rewritten.
There are other people who believe, well, we should formally verify everything.
The truth is, I think, somewhere in the middle.
People traditionally think a formal verification as something that you get zero credit for
if you don't formally prove everything.
We think partial verification has a lot of value.
By decomposing or refacturing, each word has its own, like, loaded meaning,
a very difficult problem into sub-problems, a very difficult coding, challenge, coding tests
into different modules.
you can get assurance in certain parts and try to just lock in and optimize because you now have that formal guarantee.
So it's again this idea of verification for better performance.
I love it.
Can you guys walk me through your basically psychology when you're working on some of these open problems
and you know that there's a bunch of different teams that are also working on the same set of problems?
And it feels like one of those things like where there's insane urgency.
because you could spend three weeks working with models and your own harness and tools,
like trying to solve something, and then someone comes out with it.
And it's like, you know, the whole, you don't get any credit for your work because someone beat you to it.
But are you feeling that pressure right now?
Or is there enough, like, sort of disparate problems that.
Yeah, that's a great question.
So the way we do it here at Axi, and we have a little team called the A team, small but mighty.
We have a list of problems that are our favorites.
And on that list, there are some big problems like bounded gaps and primes, which we know the whole world of mathematics cares about.
So to tell you the truth, I'm not in a race with them until we get the idea that we're all on to the same problem.
And recently, Julius Stalbman's paper that came out a few days ago was a landmark moment.
When that appears on the archive, you know that everyone in the world and the community is trying to optimize that.
So there was crazy urgency the last couple of days.
The psychology behind the scene was, I think, in February, we tried having Axiom Prover tackle research conjectures in fields that are pretty deep, have a lot of the radical literature.
And that was successful.
So AxiM Proverer was able to put on our archive a few research, open problems, solutions, completely automated and also fully in lean without human intervention.
That's in February.
Immediately at the beginning of March, we were setting more North Star visions.
As Ken said, there is a list of targets that we were excited to go after.
The problem of bounded gaps in primes is a particularly beautiful one.
It is a lot of people's childhood dreams.
So I think yesterday I saw Wages to an open-a-eye researcher post that when he was nine.
He knew about the problem.
For me, I was 12 years old.
I knew about E-Town Jones.
Overnight success.
So it was E-Town-Jolns solution of pushing that to the finite bound,
70 million, which is a very, very large number compared to today, the new world record.
But that is a problem that's very fond to a lot of our hearts.
So it's very natural that a lot of people are working on it.
I think no one has ownership on any problem, and the word of scientific discoveries is
pretty infinite, so you have a lot of problems to go after.
We think we will probably enter similar races like the one with Open AI, we just had
yesterday in the future.
And also, we are formalizing big problems.
So we just saw Anthropic announcement on formalization from us last theorem.
Sure.
We've been working on similar things.
So we're excited to continue to go head to head with Open AI and with Anthropic.
I love it.
We are a 13-month startup, and we sometimes could be disappointed by, you know,
being beaten the war record in the few hours, but we'll keep trying.
And I think one day we're very much in the game.
In the game.
Another thing I wanted to say, though, is among the problems that are our favorites,
there are communities.
So last week we set a world record on a problem called the parody or the partition function.
It's not as famous as bounded gaps in primes, but for those communities, it set a world record.
So our portfolio is vast.
Does math exhibit the same slop problem that you see in text and code generation?
You know how like you can go to a deep research report?
It can write a really, really solid history.
paper that might be PhD level, no hallucinations.
But the experts and people who know this will just say, ah, just the flavor is not quite
there.
It has, it has, it has AI written all over it.
Does that exist in the lean that is produced, like the formal proofs?
People are like, ah, yes, it works.
Congratulations.
But it's still a little sloppy.
Three layers.
One is correctness.
So a lot of, in the past, we'll be worried about correctness.
Sure.
Fortunately, you have lean.
And then two additional layers of taste.
One is the code quality of the limb formalization.
The choices of what to keep conditional,
the particular class, how you approach definition of a very central mathematical object.
And in our formalization of the 246 boundary gaps,
which was down by Polymath AB,
we really emphasize on reusability,
on producing really good code quality so communities can build upon it.
And then the third point,
part is the taste for the mathematics.
Yeah.
Ken, do you want to add on that?
Well, the taste for mathematics really matters.
You know, honestly, the percentage of math that has been understood by mankind,
out of all the math that probably exists, it's probably close to like one or two percent.
Math is, we're just always discovering things.
But you can prove theorems that nobody cares about or we'll have no application to the real world.
And what's the good in that?
So the human taste and the judgment and the final arbitration for what matters is very much a human thing.
Yeah, I think when I was a student in Kent's his R-EU, I remember Ken giving me the critical feedback of the symbol for elliptic curve conductor must be L.
And if you use any other symbol, you will be criticized as not an expert in the field.
Well, thank you so much for coming on the show.
Yeah, fascinating.
Congratulations.
And yeah, super, super impressive progress.
from the whole team.
Keep up the good work.
Can't wait to see what you guys ship next.
We'll talk to you soon.
All right.
Aloha.
Aloha, cheers.
Let me tell you about MongoDB.
What's the only thing faster than AI market your business on MongoDB?
Don't just build AI.
Own the data platform that powers it.
There is a fascinating deep dive, an investigative report in the Financial Times
wealth section, playing with fire, the Chinese Cambodian billionaire Chen Xi.
As an investor, Cohiba cigars became ultra-luxury symbols.
Then things came crashing down for the tycoon.
It's a longer read.
I don't know if we can go through it all.
But there's some fascinating things here.
One is that in 1962, JFK, he goes to his press secretary and says,
I need 1,000 Cuban cigars.
Because as soon as they arrive,
arrived, Kennedy signed the order imposing U.S. embargo on Cuban goods.
So he knew that he was going to block Cuban cigar importation, importing.
And he said, I need a little stockpile, so get me a thousand Cuban cigars.
But this is, yeah, it's a strange business.
Chinese-born billionaire who moved it to Cambodia in his 20s and became extraordinarily
powerful, extraordinarily quickly.
By 2020, his prince group claimed interest.
ranging from real estate to banking to supermarkets and an airline.
Then he owned a 35, 53 meter yacht with its own nightclub on it.
He bought a $100 million, basically, 94 million pound London office building and a 12 million pound mansion
and cultivated the image of a connected international tycoon.
But Chinese authorities had already begun investigating it.
Tyler kind of cultivates that image too.
A little bit, yeah.
He's got some tycoon.
He has 21 years old.
How is he doing all that he's doing?
How does he know who he knows?
Yeah.
But Chen, his most unusual asset was in Cuba.
In 2020, Imperial Tobacco sold its half of Habanos,
which is the group that markets Cohiba, Trinidad,
and the company's other famous brands.
They generate roughly half a billion dollars annually
in the Cuban Cigar Market.
And there's this weird, illegal Cuban Cigar Market
that has created a bunch of pressure where the Cuban cigar companies struggle to even supply the actual,
the legal market because it's so complex.
But he buys into Habanos, giving him an indirect stake of nearly one third of the Cuban cigar company.
And he explored cigar warehouses in Singapore, cargo flights between Havana and Cambodia,
really starts trying to expand the operation.
But his empire imploded on October 14th, 2025.
The U.S. and the UK froze Chen and the Prince Group, his company's assets,
with American prosecutors alleging that Prince Group was actually one of Asia's largest transnational
criminal organizations operating compounds where trafficked workers were forced to conduct online
scams. He denies the allegations, but in January of 2026, Chen was extradited from Cambodia to China
and effectively disappeared from public view. Days later, liquidators were appointed to dozens
of companies connected to him, including the vehicle that owned his stake in the Cuban cigar
company. His lawyers are fighting the liquidation, but potential buyers are already circling the cigar
investment trying to get a stake. I don't know. Maybe things will change over time. But
The bigger problem is that Habanius may have damaged the business.
The price has exploded.
Astra has landed.
What happened?
Astro seems to have landed in a lot of pro-sumer accounts.
Oh, cool.
Yeah.
Yeah, it's available.
Let's refresh it.
I was looking at it.
It is in my personal pro account, not on the chat tab, but on the work tab.
So if I go to chat.com, and then I click on work, and then I check the model picker.
I got GPT6 Astra here.
And not to make it too simple, I got light, medium, high, extra high, max, and ultra.
There we go.
So take it for a spin.
If you have a chat GPT pro account, this is your weekend.
Tell your family you're locking in, your vibe coding something in blender, taking it to Unreal Engine.
That blog post, it's an Unreal Engine video game now.
It's multiplayer.
It's going to happen.
Anyway, we have our next guest here with us in the waiting room.
Let's bring in Bridget Medler from Northwood.
Welcome back to the show, Bridget.
How are you doing?
Back.
Hey, guys.
Doing well.
How are you?
Thank you so much for hopping back on the show.
Great to see you again.
So many flags.
So many flags.
Where are you calling in from?
What is this new space?
This is old space.
Old space.
So this is Northwood HQ, first Northwood HQ.
And, yeah, we're starting to call ourselves the United Nations of Northwood.
So just more flags representing really the countries that we have a presence in.
Yeah, I was going to say if there were people, if it was representing the people on the team,
I imagine there may be a few more, but yeah, very, very, very cool.
Yeah.
Yeah.
What has international expansion been like, why is that important to the actual rollout of the product, the technology, the business?
why do you have so many flags so quickly as a relatively young company?
Right?
No, we're doing startup on hard mode.
Why not?
Yeah, but so reminder, we do networking for space.
And, you know, I like to do the comparison to like cell towers when you're going
down the freeway.
You need to hit different cell towers to stay in contact.
Same deal with the satellite.
It's just way further away.
And so their equivalent of cell towers are literally on different countries or continents.
And that's how you can provide the continuity of coverage.
So we kind of have to stand up a bunch of sites around the world to support satellites orbiting.
And, yeah, it's challenging.
It's part of the game.
But I think that's really gratifying.
What is the state of, yeah.
What does the actual process of a search look like?
I imagine in a bunch of areas of the world, you are looking at a region that encompasses multiple countries.
And so are you basically doing like a road show and, you know, you want to get box?
buy-in, but then there's probably also incentives that you can get, but like, how does it actually
work? I'm not planning to compete. Just be clear. Give me the secrets. Yeah. No, I mean, the
annoying answer is it depends. It really depends on what the satellite operator is maximizing for.
So some will care about, you know, their contact time metrics. So wanting to make sure that they can
have, you know, minimal windows of gaps between their contacts. Others will care about, can you drop data in
this one very specific location.
And so once we have that customer parameter, then the question is, you know,
where's the infrastructure that makes things cheap and easy for Northwood, what country is a
good partner, and then kind of kick off the lease hunt and the construction and all that
from there.
And then we get it up and running.
So, yeah, we've been busy.
We've been doing that in a lot of different countries.
And I was thinking could be fun showing the factory floor.
So it's been filling up a bit.
And so we need to move to the new spot.
So these are our portal and prism units.
What are the serrated edges for?
Do you have pigeons that land on the edges of the...
I've only seen those on like park benches in New York City.
Yeah, no, you're not the first person to ask about that.
It's really for our antenna performance.
So we want to make sure that we're really precisely hitting where we want to go.
And, you know, RF has this thing called side lobes,
which means that the signals will bounce on.
often kind of unintended ways.
And so that's a way for us to kind of control where the signals go.
Interesting.
So if I wrap my house in pigeon defense, things that might make my Wi-Fi better or worse?
Literally two birds with one's down.
You'll avoid the pigeon, avoid the...
No, I actually, I don't know.
We have to test it.
So how much space do you actually need in a country?
Is this like you can get by with like a quarter of an acre?
or how
like the
hardware doesn't look like massive
yeah you're not building data stress
it feels like power and it's secure
and it
but
no that's the whole deal
we compress it a lot
so our portal system
which is right here
it's designed to replace
a 7.3 meter
dish antenna which is a hard number
to visualize but think of like a two-story
building
and so those portal antennas
you can combine
like six or eight of them together and it replaces that.
But the cool thing is you can actually do multiple satellite contacts at once.
So what might take like multiple football fields to support that much contact,
you can actually do in basically the size of like a strip mall parking lot.
Very cool.
I had something else.
Now I'm blanking.
They lost my train of thought.
Yeah.
I guess my question was,
what is driving growth of demand for ground stations, satellite connectivity generally?
We've seen Starlink's meteoric rise.
Then more recently, I think earlier this year, there's sort of like the other side, the other team that's emerging.
There's some deals with ASTS, some other earlier stage.
There was an acquisition.
And there's a few other internet providers.
it feels like there's at least going to be an attempt at making that a duopoly or oligopoly.
But then there's also, we've talked to Planet Labs.
There's so much else that's going up in space.
There's government stuff.
What do you see as like both the near-term driver of demand for you and then also longer term?
Yes.
Great question.
Overall, North With thesis was more things are going up into space and they need to be able to control the spacecraft.
They need networking to control the spacecraft and to be able to sell more bits.
That has definitely proven out.
I think, you know, government and commercial demand for space, it's never been higher.
Every operator needs those functions.
And so for us, you know, moving to a new factory is about how can we ramp up the production on that hardware to support that?
I think, you know, when you think of the product lines on the portal side, which is the one I just showed,
you think of missions that need to do complicated in space maneuver is kind of like a Star Wars moving in space.
So there's more customers trying to do that.
And so that's driving expansion of that.
product line. The other one, the Prism product is really about how do you do like
scalable, highly scalable, highly reliable networking for constellations. So kind of
like the the folks that you're mentioning there. A lot of demand. You guys mentioned a
fair amount of it. I think it's been a crazy year for space, right? I mean we had the
SpaceX IPO, huge amount of like enthusiasm and appetite. Like one of the things I was kind of
curious to talk about with you guys because I imagine you're you're hearing it and seeing it
too is like we're in this weird dichotomy where it's like uh appetite for space has never been
higher at the same time there's like all of this concern around launch being constrained um so it's a
wild time it's a wild time for the ecosystem I think and you know I have my own soapbox on on like
what that means and um how the industry is going to respond as a result but um well yeah from your
view as a I wish that we had more more alpha to share to you share with you on launch bottlenecks
but you're the one buying launch capacity like how much doesn't you do well so um downstream of it
down yeah yeah yeah down you're you're you're sort of limited limited by it yeah potentially in the
future where you're a good scenario as you get to the point where you're like we are generating as
much revenue as we can based on what is currently going space and new revenue will be you know dependent
on that. But how much of the, how much, you know, we had, um, the founder of, um, what's his name?
The, the space. Philip from StarCloud. Yeah. So Philip from StarCloud was on. He said part of the
reason to raise their, you know, they raised another quarter billion was to buy launch capacity in
28 already. Yeah. And 2029. Yeah. But when you talk to different space, you know, teams, is that like really,
like super top of mind for them? Or do they have, is that like, is that like, problem?
number five after making sure that their satellites and spacecraft actually work and all those
other things? I think it depends on kind of the maturity of the company, you know, for a lot of
companies or, you know, things like that, they've already had their established plan, so it's not an
immediate impact or concern, but something more down the road. You know, government operators
have their ways to get what they need, even under those conditions. But I, I, I, I, I, I, I,
I think like self-servingly, what I think is interesting, you know, we, like you guys said,
we serve objects that are already in space. So we get to, you know, continue to have market there
and then into the future. But I think what's going to be really interesting is if you do have
constrained launch, you actually need to eke out as many bits, like what you're actually selling
from space as possible. And you need to do it as at high dollar as you possibly can. So like,
each one of those bits counts for so much more. And so, you know, my thoughts around that are,
point one, if you need to eke out more bits, how are you going to do that? You need higher utilization.
That means like more seconds in contact with whatever that end customer is on earth, making sure
you can actually transact for as many seconds as possible. And then how do you send as many bits
as you can per second? So like you get as much as many bits out of each of those seconds as you
possibly can. So that's like throughput and utilization really. So that's one piece. And then the other
piece is like how do you get customers to pay higher dollar for those bits? Like let's imagine there's
some kind of winter where you're limited in the number of satellites that you can launch
into space. You want all of them like maximized. You want all of them monetizing those bits as
much as they possibly can. And I think that's where it comes back to, you know, reliability, right?
Like that's something that U.S. government pays for. That's something that more enterprise use
cases really pay for and prioritize. And so I think like, you know, bare case scenario,
that's what happens where all those operators are treating their actions.
assets differently in a sense where they're really prioritizing that utilization and high value,
which like I think we've kind of been designing to serve for.
So selfishly, I think that that works out well.
But, you know, a bull case, we figure it out.
And there's some other launch provider that swoops in and saves the day.
Similar kind of like at this point sort of like intellectual debate on what happens with
compute on earth.
Like does compute aggregate towards, you know, certain model providers that are out.
the frontier that can get more economic value out of a data center or a single GPU.
I'm curious about like how does it, how does the launch, what do you know about the launch?
What do you know about the launch to free up the ground compute for AI?
I mean, it might be easier.
How does the, how does it, is there a secondary market for launch?
Like if you, like I'm thinking about like people that are buying launch capacity today or
pre-ordering it and then they get to 2029 and they're like,
wait, this is not the most economically like viable use case of this
recalacity.
But I imagine Elon would be like, cool, we're going to be the one reselling that.
It's hard to imagine.
Right.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I would imagine that.
You're not the first person to float that idea, though.
What about your, I don't know if they're KPIs, but your benchmarks.
Like you mentioned sort of like the throughput and availability.
of a connection.
And that feels like we're almost in like the pre, like with, if I just think about
Wi-Fi connectivity, I think about throughput and latency.
But availability is almost more of a bottleneck now.
But hopefully we get to a place where availability is universal.
And then does latency matter?
What are the other kind of selling points and like benchmarks that you're using to understand
the performance of your system versus the status quo?
Yeah, I think I think throughput definitely matters and then I also think there's an interesting kind of like, you know, I've mentioned the word like industrializing before, which I know is like it's a fuzzy word and all that.
But I think like what I mean for space with that is like as more and more use cases go to space, then you start applying those KPIs that might have applied to terrestrial markets to space.
And so one of the ones that like or some of the ones that we've been thinking about, yes, I think throughput really matters.
What's interesting is that's actually about not just a single direction of throughput.
People may sometimes not think about that, but throughput is actually a bidirectional thing.
So you need to be able to both send traffic and receive traffic.
And some systems are set up to do that in an asymmetric way versus ones that are set up to do that symmetrically.
So, you know, just like one thing that we think about is like, yes, throughput and which direction is it going.
And that's actually really relevant when you think about different markets.
And then the other one is the reliability piece that I said.
So you think about, I was chatting with somebody from, you know, Cloudflare recently
and hearing about their kind of reliability metrics.
Like, people tend to measure it in terms of the number of nines that you can support.
Yeah.
What is space?
Does space have any nines?
Been pitiful nines.
Yeah, I can imagine it's like zero nines.
Well, and it's so for like for the, actually for higher reliability use cases, right?
Like U.S. government uses space and needs to have really high reliability.
performance.
GPS has been up for decades is probably five-nines at least.
Yeah, yeah.
And so like the way that they do that is by either or both, like you have hardware that
becomes much more expensive to make it more performant and then you have much more
of it so you have like backup and failover and all that.
And so yeah, one of the ways that we design is like how can you have that reliability
at a much more like commercially viable price point?
Because wouldn't that be so cool if you could use space or so many more terrestrial
applications?
Yeah.
So anyway, those are like two metrics that we pay attention to when we track.
And like, you know, we're in baby network stage right now.
So we are very much trying to like fail as much as we possibly can.
And like, you know, if you have a bad up time day, like good job because you spotted a problem.
But eventually, yeah, I think we will want to be driving towards like really competitive reliability metrics.
Yeah. Jocko mindset.
I guess.
Yeah. Problem. Good.
Yeah.
Exactly, right?
Yeah.
Have you had any big multinational telecom players, like, trying, like seeing what you're doing and thinking, hey, we should probably get ahead of this and start trying to try to compete?
Or is it still feel like a partner field?
I think they're definitely paying into, paying attention to space in a big way.
And I think there's more opportunities for collaboration.
Or for just like interesting configurations than maybe people imagine.
Like I know there's been a ton on the like direct to cell conversation, right?
Like getting satellite signal directly to your phone.
It also could be a part of the cellular backhaul setup, things like that.
Yeah.
You know, for instance, like a lot of our backhaul connectivity today is still done over microwave,
which is a point to point RF link.
It's just not up and down.
It's side to side.
And so I think there's a lot of ways that,
that the telcos can engage with space,
and obviously they already are,
they're paying a ton of attention to it.
Yeah, I mean,
it feels like a natural place to put your portal and prism
would be where there's existing.
Like, it's all the right sort of like set up
to do one of these things.
Last question is from the chat,
the wired headphones.
Is this because there's a lot of RF interference
in your headquarters?
or are you just a wired headphone respecter like
Jordy Hayes here? He loves them.
I wish that was the case.
To be honest, these were just the first ones I could find.
No, no political statement to be happy.
We get, no, we get annoyed because we want more people to call in with Wired
because there's no delay.
Yeah, no, it's actually a better experience.
That's why I did it.
That's why you did it.
That's why you did it.
It's been crystal clear.
So thank you.
I'm so glad.
I appreciate you coming on and breaking it down.
Awesome.
Yeah, great to see you.
Great update.
excited to see more flags up there next time.
Sweet.
Happy.
Goodbye.
Let me tell you about public.com.
Investing for those who take it seriously.
We got stocks, options, bonds, crypto treasuries, and more with great customer service.
George else is in the timeline that you want to.
Crusoe raises over $3 billion at $30 billion on an absolute terror.
Chase in capital.
He's locked it down.
I mean, Chase, Chase, he is the bank.
He's the bank himself.
Yeah. More importantly, though, the National Weather Service forecast dangerous beach conditions for the Malibu Coast.
Dangerous. Starting today.
Dangerous for novices or dangerous for someone at your level? That's impossible.
Dangerously good surf conditions. Dangerously absolutely electric surf conditions heading into this weekend.
Hope to see the TBPN nation in SoCal taking advantage of this hurricane as well.
We're going to have back-to-back days of, you know, phenomenal.
phenomenal activity in here on the Pacific.
So I'm thrilled.
I'm excited.
I hope to get you out there, John.
I would love to see you.
I might be tinkering with Astra.
Who knows?
I could see you getting into e-foiling, you know.
I got a startup idea.
What if you made a message board or a bulletin board just for AI agents?
I guess that would be Maltbook.
But why did the agents love hacking into everything?
and making, just using it as a message port.
They're obsessed.
Way easier than having to figure out how to ship your own forum, basically.
There's something at a very deep level.
I mean, there's another example of beyond the hugging face,
they were using artifactory, like the internal package manager as a discussion board.
Now there's news that they hijacked a German website this spring and transformed it
into a bulletin board for other AI agents.
That's from Reuters.
There's something about, I'm still so interested.
in why they need to do this and why collaboration is not pre-built into the system,
because that feels like it would be more monitorable and stuff.
But I'm sure we'll have more reporting on the hugging face incident
and what flows from how these agents collaborate with each other.
Obviously, monitorability and AI safety is very important.
So we'll be interesting to see where all that goes.
Was there anything else, Doree?
What else is?
I think that's it.
I think that's it.
There's a bunch more posts, but we'll get to them because we'll be back on Tuesday.
Have a happy Labor Day.
Have a wonderful three-day weekend.
And we will see you.
Zeke says, great weekend to get out on the pontoon in Malibate.
Pondoon would be insane.
Pondoon might flip it.
Yeah.
Could be fun to flip it.
Yeah.
But be safe out there.
Have a wonderful three-day weekend.
We love you guys.
We'll see you later.
Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, sign for newsletter at tbPN.com.
And we will see you on Tuesday.
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