TBPN - Nvidia Restarts China Sales, Vibe Coding Backlash, Peptide Craze | Diet TBPN

Episode Date: March 18, 2026

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The big news of the day, more news out of NVIDIA GTC. Lots of NVIDIA announcements. The stock is up. It's a $4.44 trillion company. That is big. But the big news out of NVIDIA yesterday was that NVIDIA says it's restarting production of AI chips for sale in China specifically. Jensen Wong says the company's supply chain is fired up after months of mixed signals from the Chinese market. We've been tracking this for a long time. Of course, chips were banned first from sale for sale to China in 2022 by Joe Biden under the Chips Act that also unlocked billions of dollars in incentives for American chip manufacturing.

And then the narrative flipped back and forth, back and forth on what are the risks and what are the costs and benefits of actually selling chips to China. Back in 2022, after the Chips Act, which if you want to read up more on it, we've interviewed Chris Miller, the author of Chip. It's a great book. And the calculus has always been pretty clear. Like on the first pass, the first order effects, AI is an important technology. America wants an advantage in the AI race, the AI build out. So less chips for China means more chips for America, stronger economic engine. Massive chip shortage right now.

You see old chips being valued basically more than they were when they launched, which implies there's plenty of demand in America. So you'd want to keep those here. And plenty of demand at TSMC from America. American chip makers specifically. I mean, even Apple is sort of getting crowded down there on the two nanometer, which I think is better for phones than for GPUs, but they're, you know, they're grappling with what the compute boom, what the AI build out boom will be for their business.

In the past, China's dependence on foreign technology companies has been seen as a key bargaining chip. Why would China invade Taiwan when they need to keep TSM's manufacturing facilities online? Ship manufacturing is extremely precise. One of these factories isn't going to withstand a rocket hitting it. So if there is any sort of broad military action in Taiwan, TSM probably gets a little bit damaged. I mean, even the tiniest earthquake. Right. They have to track the weather outside of the facility.

Exactly. It's the weather outside of the facilities is fluctuating and all. It can affect yield inside. Taiwan is famous or TSM is famous where they don't even need apparently a like a detection system or a push notification to their employees if there's an earthquake. If the employees sense that there's an earthquake, they just get up and go to the factory and start working on things. It's not like they need to like, oh, we need to email all the employees. The employees just know because that's the level of sensitivity over the TSM fab.

So if you want to keep TSM producing chips, you can't invade Taiwan. And so by banning the export of chips to China, the cost to China of a Taiwan invasion decreases. And so if China can't access TSM chips anyway, it's a lot of. lot less risky to go to war. And that was always the risk with hardcore chip bans. In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war was about six months old. Global conflicts have grown significantly since then. Obviously, we've been tracking the Iran War. And America's military is potentially stretched thin, so the risks of a Taiwan conflict are higher than ever. And so you add to the fact that everyone agrees that we will be in chip constrained, a chip shortage, through at least 2030. And the need to

keep TSM supplying chips to American companies is extremely important. It's always been difficult to parse the various arguments around selling chips to China because there's an insane amount of money at stake and many, many people who's basically their full-time job is to advocate for a particular position. Yeah, not to mention how much of everyone's retirement accounts, NVIDIA actually makes holding up the world economy, right? That's the meme. There are good arguments on both sides.

One that keeps getting trotted out is, you know, it's important to keep China dependent on the American AI stack and it's reasonable. The better argument might just be dependent on a functional TSM FAB, but there are benefits to the CUDA ecosystem and to the idea that whatever models get built there will be applicable here, we'll be able to transfer that research and development

that happens over there very quickly. The more the economies are interlinked, the less likely there is a conflict. So all of this underscores the importance of TSM, Arizona, Samsung, Samsung, Intel broadly, as well as startup fab projects, like the TerraFab. TerraFab. Well, we're traveling this like long and narrow road, but I'm coming around to the idea

that selling some chips to China is the best possible move at this particular moment in time. It was easy to stick with like the first order logic of just we want the chips because we can use them to power our economy. So we should have them. Even if they are getting chips, it's not like the party is going to say, actually the domestic, our domestic supply chain is no longer important because we're getting a drip of age 200s. Yes. So there's, they're still going to keep the momentum that they have. It just wouldn't be wouldn't be like them. There's a lot of debate over that because momentum comes from scale. Yeah, you can take some of the wind out of the sales. Yes. But they can just spend you can slow the momentum potentially. That's the argument is that is that by limiting demand you're like

there's a local local fab in China that just says a chipmaker. A chip maker. A chip maker that that says, okay, well, you know, our demand is half as much, so we're going to, so like we can't afford to scale. Sure, we have the money, but we don't really need to deliver this because there's no buyer, so you don't get the process level of like execution. You don't get the excellence that comes from actually needing to run the real business. It becomes more of like NASA than SpaceX. That's always the risk with like, you know, you're just throwing government money after it. NVIDIA and the Trump administration have been involved in a complicated tango over the sales

of its advanced artificial intelligence chips in China. Last April, the Commerce Department halted exports of the H20, a processor, Nvidia, designed explicitly for the China market. That was the Nerfed H-200, that was not supposed to be able to train as advanced of models, but it was reported that the high-flier team behind DeepSeek sort of figured out how to use those chips effectively. So there was a debate over, is the H-20 actually?

just as useful as the H-200 or close to it or closer. Well, it's sort of a moot question now because H-200 is coming to China, which is the more advanced version, the not-nerved version. So the company's fortunes turned again in December when the U.S. said it would allow NVIDIA to sell its H-200 processor, a chip that is a generation behind its most powerful series of GPUs. As long as the company shared 25% of its sales with the U.S. government, so there's basically an export tariff.

GPUs or graphics processing units are powerful chips used in AI training AI models. I think everyone knows this. But until Tuesday, the status of the H-200 or the H-200 in China was unclear. In NVIDIA's most recent earnings report, the company said that although it had received approval to ship small amounts of H-200 products to China, to date, we have not generated any revenue from those sales. Fong said that in recent weeks, demand signals out of China have strengthened. We have been licensed for many customers in China.

We've received purchase orders from many customers, and we're in the process of restarting our manufacturing. Our supply chain is getting fired up. In other news, J.R. Tolkien used Gen Z. Brainrot slang over 70 years ago. That's how ahead. No way. He was in the quote maggots jeered that and cigars, you're cooked. You're cooked. White skins will catch you and eat you.

They're coming. Oh, he's like using it literally. Like you will be cooked by the some, some. I don't know, villain, I suppose. So the orcs will cook you if you fall behind, I suppose. NVIDIA's biggest GTC announcement was a $20 billion bet on the same problem that Cerebrus solved six years ago, says Andrew Feldman, the CEO and founder of Cerebris. Shots fired. Shots fired indeed.

He says, their next gen inference chip, not available yet, has 140 times less memory and less memory bandwidth than Cerebrus, to run a single 2 trillion parameter. model, you need 2,000 GROC chips. On Cerebrus, that's just over 20 wafers. Even paired with GPUs, GROC's maxes out at a thousand tokens per second. We run at thousands of tokens per second today and every day in production now. Why? When you connect 2,000 chips together, every internet connect has latency, every cable has overhead. It doesn't matter what your memory bandwidth is on paper if you're bottlenecked by the wiring between the thousands of tiny chips. We solve this with wafer scale, one integrated system, little interconnect tax. Jensen told the world that fast inference is where the value is, he's right, it's why the world's leading AI companies and

hyperscalers are choosing cerebrus. And so he puts up a little graphic of cerebrus versus Rubin plus Grok together on one system. And he is touting 90 times the amount of memory, 90 times the number of chips needed to run a two trillion parameter model. Bubble Boy is having some criticism of GTC because apparently people are getting up and asking questions that are intended to pump bags. He says GTC has turned into a conference less about tech and innovation and more about pumping your bags by getting a Jensen soundbite on some niche supply chain player. They say LinkedIn is the only social platform where you can post a sloppy reaction poll and it will get tons of engagement. We need to do this. Wow, they're just really throwing shots. I give LinkedIn a chance.

On a long enough timeline, they will all come to X. Yeah. It might take 30, 40, 40, years they'll make it over to the dive bar eventually maybe I like that semi analysis leans into the particular like rough edges of every platform like I follow them on Instagram and they actually post just like hilarious vibe reels and it's just like brain rot yeah yeah but often it's why completely not I'm the only one that's liking them I comment on a lot of the video yeah I comment too it's amazing like they are not having broad success but as far as like what Instagram it's like you know the fine details of yeah you know inference max or

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then it's like Minecraft parkour over it. Yeah, yeah. Apple cracks down on vibe coding apps. It's over for you, Tyler. Apple's moves come as vibe coding apps, help people create apps. Vibe coding apps, not vibe coded apps. I know, it's over for him times two. No, because he doesn't vibe code on a phone. I'm kidding. I'm kidding. I'm kidding. He doesn't vibe code on a phone. I'm kidding. Apple's move comes as vibe coding apps, help people create apps for Apple devices as well as web apps that aren't listed in the apps. Apple has quietly prevented AI vibe coding apps such as Replit and VibeCode, which help people create games and other applications, from releasing updates to their mobile apps on the App Store unless they make modifications. Company confirmed it has told some app developers that the vibe coding capabilities violate longstanding App Store rules that say an app can't run code that changes the way it or other apps function. Apple's crackdown is happening at a time when vibe coding apps are emerging as a potential threat to the company by helping developers create web apps that aren't listed on its app store, a key source.

for revenue and profits for Apple. Some of these vibe coding apps also help developers create apps for Apple devices. That ability has likely contributed to the explosion of new apps launching on the App Store in recent months leading to a slowdown and approval process in some cases, developers say. It sounds like you're able to basically like generate an app with Replit and then like use a preview of it that maybe is functioning a little too much and effectively allowing Replit the app to do things that Apple didn't approve of. If you search VibeCode, you get an ad for Replit as the first response.

Replit is number three in DevTools, has 14,000 five-star reviews or reviews. Then VibeCode is listed as VibeCode website builder has 3.3K, pretty solid. It doesn't look like it's charting, but it says learn how to vibe code, no experience needed, build websites with professional designs, much more focused, I think, on static content. but there's been a number of these like website builders in the app store for a very long time then replet ranks number two when you search for vibe code because it says replet vibe code apps would you download this app jrdi i don't know that's insane i don't know you can see but it's like a graphic like an AI image of the gigacad using the computer it's very funny um but man there are so much IP infringement. Love a code. Not from lovable. Love a code. Build with vibe code. They're like,

I wonder who they're trying to SEO against. Do you remember that company that was doing vibe coding on the iPhone and they would tap your phone and basically air drop you the app? We talked to them at YC Demo Day last year. And there's a number of these companies that are, you know, trying to be like the AI game store, sort of like the meta simulator, like build a simulator and create a harness that's really good at vibe coding a game. It feels like a really valuable category,

if you can crack it, but you are gonna be bumping up against the app store all the time. You just have to compete with Sam Altman, Dario Amadeh. Yeah, maybe. Amjad. I do wonder if there will be, some sort of, or I mean, Roblox would be like the bigger one, maybe? Or does it come out of

codex and cloud code instead? For gaming, I just think Roblox is just going to continue to be like Roblox is the Roblox of vibe coding. And yet we did not build our simulators in Roblox. Yeah, but they're not like massive multiplayer games. And we want people to be able to click a link and use it on their phone immediately. We have a new simulator coming by the way. We're addicted to simulation. We do love simulators. And this one we're putting a little bit more effort into, and John's already addicted. I would say this one is like just actually fun. We're going for impact. We're going for fun. But, you know, Apple's had this longstanding policy around do not, do not, like, they want to review the software. And so you can't create

an app that rewrites its software. Yeah, I wonder if Apple can do anything to create more like a like a mini like sort of peer to peer experience because I remember I was like learning how to to build iOS apps when I was like a early teenager and I was so frustrated that I had built Pong but I couldn't just like share it with my dad and say like hey you can play this like it just wasn't it was yeah we can do test flight right yeah test flight but but test flight is still like it's certainly not designed for it's not like air drop or I'm here to peer experience like you you you You still have to opt into the test flight network, do all these jumps.

Like for some reason, it is weird that it kicks me out of the Apple ecosystem when I get a test flight. Gold Rock says, High Key, Tyler could make better Siri and Replit with a thousand dollar budget. For his last thousand dollars. In Rapplet, okay, not end.

He's down to his last thousand bucks. That's a good challenge. The question is how much is Apple itself vibe coding? Because the software quality in the apps that I use. Mark German said they're using, They're using Cloud all the time, right? Yeah. No, but to me, I'm saying so far, my experience recently,

I've had an issue with the most important application on my phone, which is- You were complaining about the photos app? That was just poor design. The phone app has gotten a lot of- Yeah, John finally came around because the phone app is like, you're like, okay, I'm going to hit this button. I might be calling this person out of the blue,

even though I just want to- And I'm not sure what phone line I'm calling them on. I guess they're designing for a world where people only have one phone number, but I still have a lot of people This is blowing your mind Tyler But back in the day like a home phone back in the day people used to have multiple phone lines Multiple phone numbers It's true. I'm so unc but yes like a work phone I mean I was at ff I had two phones but two phones that's right, but a lot of people will have a home phone and a mobile phone and so that was the thing that you saved in your content

book a lot a long time and the problem with the new the new iOS phone app is that I've been calling randomly people on their home phone if I have it saved so I need to maybe go delete those numbers or like put them in like a comment field so that it always calls their iPhone because I have moved to just calling people on their mobile phones but we got to go over to sf with martin scrawley yeah wait oh okay this is part two we're just jumping straight into the school we're going straight into part two okay we're going straight into part two he says have you ever had the thing that you know a lot about become the current thing. That's happening now with peptides. Holy S-H-I-T. I don't know where to start. Farmer basics. Most people obsessed with peptides don't know a few things. Peptides as pharmaceuticals have

been around since the 1950s. A peptide is just a small protein peptides. Peptides have extremely short half-lives often on the order of seconds or minutes. So if you're saying you're interested in peptides, you're saying, I'm interested in biopharmaceticals, but only drugs with very weak. Pharmacokinetics. Pachinetics. Pharmacokinetics. That's a new word for me. Drugs of which peptides are a subgroup usually have a specified target. This is an electrostatic interaction, usually hydrogen bonding between the atoms of the drug and the atoms of the target, typically, but far from always the receptor. If you can't tell me what the target is and how the drug is binding to it, you do not have a drug. You have delusion.

Next, drugs are rigorously tested rigorously, not only for safety reasons, just identifying the pharmacokinetics of a substance, how it travels in the body. Pharmacokinetics. Pharmacoconetics. It's a collab. Between pharma and kinetics. Exactly. Is arguably the most important starting point for any medicine?

How is it metabolize? What is it, what is its half-life? Without this basic information, you can't even begin to have a medicine. You can start pharmacokinetics in animals and scale to humans, but you also need a therapeutic hypothesis. This is a thoroughly vetted biological idea considered a priority as to why this medicine just might work. You very rarely discover these after the fact. discover these after the fact. Determining target engagement requires assays. Assays. This is going to be a rough one. This is a rough one. Also, a priori, not a priori. Brutal. Abriorio. Exposed. What

assay was your drug tested in? What did it show? Direct target engagement is very important to falsify your biological hypothesis. And you can continue, John. Preclinical studies are so manufactured and fraudulent in today's day that I wouldn't rely on them for biological hypotheses unless they are from an incredible lab were done a priori etc there we go clinical reality is far harsher without a double-blind placebo controlled study there is often nothing to talk about if I hear but I know dozens of people one more time exclamation point exclamation point screw the FDA and pharma really really coming from Martin Screlli He is saying maybe don't screw the FDA in pharma.

When most of the SF and elsewhere crowd talks about peptides, they're not thinking, and this is gonna be a hard one for me, aughtriotide. They're thinking some random stuff that's been thrown in animal models and is not FDA approved. Look, I'm not a softie. If there was a drug that could help me or my family, I'd find a way to get it.

But I'm also not stupid and spent 20 years looking at pharmaceuticals. Drug companies like to make money. Drug companies love looking at random molecules and putting them in clinical trials. There are thousands of biopharmaceutical companies that are publicly traded. It is not hard to do a clinical trial from a university. If your drug has never been tested, there is a reason.

The reason is not that you are a biopharmaceutical genius who has found something cool that everyone else missed. The FDA plays an important role. They make sure that whatever is on the label is actually in the drug. That's why prescriptions are important. If I operated one of these research chemical shops, wildly illegal, I might add, I would just ship people alineine or something. No one would have any idea that it wasn't BPC BS or whatever is popular right now. The other side of the argument.

There has to be some unapproved drug out there that's useful to take. Yes, there are plenty. That is how I made a living, says Martin Screlly. But it is not for you, world traveler, to think about this. The things you know do not apply to pharmaceuticals. It's not that you're not smart. I'm sure you're smarter than I, it just takes practice and time to understand medicine. I believe some places will even require you to go to school before you can decide who takes what drug. Just ask your doctor for medical advice. There's a reason you don't do surgery on yourself, fly a plane by yourself, etc. But Martin, I want to optimize my health. You could fly a 747. I could. I could fly a 747. I could. That is that I take. That's established. We don't have this. We don't need studies.

I don't know that you could land. I could land to. If, if I needed to. If you, if it was asked of you. 100%. But Martin, I want to optimize my health. No, stop it. You're not sick. It's all nonsense. Leave medicine to physicians. You do not know what you are doing.

Become a physician if you are that interested or spend a lot of time and money on biopharma. I have zero doubt you'll change your mind. There are no healthcare professionals that I know of who give an S-HIT about these unapproved research chemicals. There are actual dying people in the world. Duquesne muscular dystrophy, pecan, lefora, go fix those diseases. make someone and their family a lot happier than LARPing that you know about medicine. This has to end.

Lots of debate. Yeah. So we are going to be hosting a debate. Max Marchione from Superpower will be coming on Monday at 12 to debate Martin Schrelli, the professor himself. So we're going to have a little debate. Superpower, I believe, cells these small proteins. And so it'll be an interesting.

conversation. So Monday at 12 Pacific, we can look forward to the great debate. Because when people talk about peptides, they mostly mean things like Reda Trutide, Reda, which is in stage three clinical trials and looking extremely good, or BPC 157, which has a which has tons of clinical and anecdotal evidence. Your critique is just self-aggrandizing fluff that falls apart when you apply it to the actual examples most people are using. So he's saying, look, most people aren't using this. stuff that's like crazy far out there. They're just pulling forward things that are actively being worked on by the pharmacy. Just another pod guys says great post would be even better if you

were in a flow state with a low dose of RETA. Martin does not think he doesn't like BPC 157. He says BPC 157 has no evidence LMAO. Reda Trutide is literally a biopharmaceutical from Eli Lilly pirating. Yeah, I mean the concern with BPC 157 has always been that it could accelerate cancer growth. Yes, it stimulates it stimulates growth. Yes. And so because it hasn't been studied well enough in humans, that is a risk that people I think should be aware of. How much of this is actually because of people's AGI timelines? Is there a real overlap in San Francisco between like, yes, it might give me cancer in 20 years, but I think we will cure cancer in 10. So if it makes me look good in the next five. But I think it's all about people just want some type of edge. Yeah.

want to alter their states. It's somewhat basically human nature. Yeah. You can make the same argument for a while you should wait though, because then in 10 years, AGI will create like a super drug that will just instantly make me jacked. Oh, right? It's like you can do it either way.

No one has a decade to wait to be. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you wanna be jacked now. Because all things equal, if the cancer risk of both scenarios is zero, you'd rather be jacked for 45 years as opposed to 40 years. How much, how much would we have to? to pay you a day to not lift anything heavier than a single piece of paper. There's no amount of money.

There's no money. That's right. Exactly. You can't wait 10 years. Private credit and the AI value reallocation. Starts to the quote, the essence of technology is in a lofty sense ambiguous. Such ambiguity points to the mystery of all revealing,

i.e. of truth. Martin Heidegger. A familiar intuition about the emergence of any new technological paradigm is that new methods of engaging with the world create uncertain. which is most easily interpreted through the lens of perceived negative outcomes. As private credit markets deteriorate, it's tempting to not only to blame AI for that decline, but also to extrapolate any dislocation to its logical extreme. That is, where rising default expectations among software companies are increasingly framed

as early signs of a global systemic crisis. The most convenient analogy is the G. And yesterday carried no interest was giving a little bit of a doomer take, around some of these software private equity deals, but he was not ringing alarm bells to the tune of the global financial crisis, correct? He was just saying that some of these deals are underwater, some of those investment professionals might be needing to join different firms to find different opportunities, sort of the bull case for special situations, right? Leaving the firm and be like, I didn't really work on it. I was an investor, but I didn't do much investing during 2018 to

2022. I was I was mostly just sitting there saying, guys, like, I don't know we should do this deal. I guess the beauty of private credit is that you have all these different funds that are being deployed, that have been deployed on different time horizons that have longer time, time horizons in general, right? And so you can have basically like a rolling collapse versus like a versus versus like a run on the bank where you have like a, like, one day where everyone realizes it's kind of like the worm like you were doing the yeah yeah yeah yeah kind of like it like that yeah that does not seem great it's like a way like when you start when you start the worm yeah when you start small and it gets bigger and bigger and bigger

this framing is incomplete says eric seuford in mobile dev memo says it isolates the destructive effects of AI while ignoring the mechanisms through which those effects propagate and where value ultimately accrues In this piece, he makes the case that contemporary economic conditions bear no resemblance to those leading up to the global financial crisis of 2008. Any weakening in various categories of the software landscape as a result of AI will not only mostly remain contained there, but will likely lead to economically expansionary productivity gains and efficiencies that offset potentially disproportionately losses in private credit. That's very exciting. I'm only on my second diagram. Don't talk to me.

Don't talk to me until I've had my. 10th energy drink. This is what the Fed had to say. Private credit has emerged as one of the fastest growing segments of non-bank financial intermediars. NBFIs. Over the past 15 years or so, reaching a total asset class size of $1.34 trillion in the U.S. alone by the middle of 2024. A report from Morgan Stanley published in October of 2025 estimated the size of the private credit market at the start of 2025 at $3 trillion. Private credit is an asset class that functions as a parallel banking system. Don't call it a shadow banking system. It's just merely parallel in darkness. Look, I'm going to be concerned. Here's what I'm going to be concerned. And you have leaders at these

private credit firms that say, you know, look, private credit's amazing. Yeah. But it's unfair that we're keeping all of these gains private and we need to make them public. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So some type of like federal kind of involvement sector could make sense. It would also be really, really bad if, like, one of the most respected leaders of one of the biggest banks in the world was to compare the industry to, like, some really, like, you know, some bug. That would be a bad. You don't want to be compared to a scottling creature.

No, no, no, no. Maybe a soaring eagle instead. There are some soaring eagles in this. in this in this portfolio of private credit assets. Bill Gurley says, I fear that AI has decimated the traditional email inbox as we know it. Too many personalized slop email slipped through the spam filter. Hope someone builds a better mousetrap.

This one is cooked in its current form. Great use of the word cooked. Nikita was saying February 11th prediction in less than 90 days. All channels that we thought were saved from spam and automation will be so flooded that they will no longer be usable in any functional sense. I message phone calls Gmail. Email inbox certainly. feels that way. Nikita says spam laws will need to be rewritten soon. Machines should be prohibited from

communicating with humans unprompted. This will actually make your job just actually just hitting the button because like, no, a machine didn't send that. A human did. The human hit the button and you're going to have to press a button like, you know, 10,000 times a day if you're BDR sending sales emails. We'll see you tomorrow. Goodbye.