TBPN - OpenAI–AMD Deal, DevDay Reactions, xAI’s Memphis Datacenter | Doug O'Laughlin, Celine Halioua

Episode Date: October 6, 2025

(00:17) - OpenAI DevDay Reactions (30:05) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (38:42) - OpenAI–AMD Deal (50:07) - xAI’s Memphis Datacenter (56:12) - Doug O'Laughlin, CFA, is the President of SemiAnalysis, an independent research firm specializing in semiconductors and AI. In the conversation, he discusses OpenAI's strategic partnerships with companies like Nvidia, AMD, and SK Hynix, suggesting that OpenAI is involving multiple stakeholders to create a vested interest in its success. He also highlights the significant capital investments required for AI infrastructure and the potential for major tech companies to leverage their strong balance sheets to fund these developments. (01:31:40) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (01:51:17) - Celine Halioua, founder and CEO of Loyal, is developing FDA-approved drugs aimed at extending the lifespan and healthspan of dogs. In the conversation, she discusses the challenges of creating longevity drugs, the regulatory landscape, and the potential for translating canine aging research to human applications. She also highlights the importance of operational excellence and the need for rigorous scientific validation in the field of aging therapeutics. TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.comFigma - https://figma.comVanta - https://vanta.comLinear - https://linear.appEight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpnWander - https://wander.com/tbpnPublic - https://public.comAdQuick - https://adquick.comBezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.comPolymarket - https://polymarket.comAttio - https://attio.com/tbpnFin - https://fin.ai/tbpnGraphite - https://graphite.devRestream - https://restream.ioProfound - https://tryprofound.comJulius AI - https://julius.aiturbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.comfal - https://fal.aiPrivy - https://www.privy.ioCognition - https://cognition.aiFollow TBPN: https://TBPN.comhttps://x.com/tbpnhttps://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

You're watching TBPN. Today is Monday, October 6th, 2025. We are like... 1999. 1999. Is it January or is December? 1999? We don't know. We're going to figure it out. We're live from the TBPN Ultradome. The Temple of Technology, the Forces of Finance, the capital of capital. Today is Open AIs dev day. 1,500 people are attending. It's their biggest event ever. They're in Fort Mason. Sam Altman and Johnny Ive are going to be given a fireside chat. That'll be. fun. There's been rumors that the hardware device that they're building is delayed. But I kind of don't care. I read the Financial Times. We'll dig into the Financial Times report, but you're supposed

to come out in 2026, might be pushed a little bit. I don't doubt... Nothing about the leak made me want it. Yeah, exactly. Like, I don't doubt that they're going to be able to ship a product. Like, it's Johnny I and Sam Altman. They're going to be able to figure out how to manufacture something and sell something. My take was that there are two things that they need to solve that are way more important than like, can they get a manufacturer to make it and ship it? Like, that's not the problem. The first one is, will people adopt the form factor they pick? The rumor's no screen, which has been tried before by startups with little success. And I remain pretty pilled on what the meta head of wearables told us about like these Lindy form factors, the watch, the tablet computer, the notebook.

the hat, the glasses. If you were selling me a smart hat, I might be more down. I mean, the chain, I guess, like, the Jesus piece, the smart Jesus piece could be, you know, you're building AI God. Why not create a talisman?

Bigger and bigger chains for more compute. Something there. But the pin always felt a little odd, and it seems like it's harder to get people to swap over. But the biggest, the second thing that's like really crazy, is there are just insane lock-in effects that not even Johnny Ive can overcome when competing with Apple. We talked about this with meta-ray-band displays. You don't get iMessage notifications

in meta-ray-band displays. Yeah, imagine if you had personal superintelligence in this new device form factor. You're using the meta-buzzword, but this is also what... And it could do anything in the world except send messages on your app. your wife, except for like check in on your kids or like text your buddy from college. Like that is a serious, serious missing piece of any hardware device that is not going to be integrated. IMessage has become so dominant. It's been remarkable. I never thought of it as a social network, but now I do.

One thing that we can take away from the humane AI pin is that, and again, the humane AI pin from my sense of the leaks around the Johnny Ive project. is that it's not that different. It's more similar to the Humane AI pin in my head right now than it is different. I mean, the Humane pin had that screen that was like the projector. I think they're doing away with that entirely, going voice only. It's clear that like speech to text is good enough now

that you could have a voice interface. I mean, I'm sure that they've seen in the analytics for the chat GPT app. What's the latest data? 800 million weekly active users? Yeah, that was in the dev day. a presentation. And I think Jordy had a question for you about that. Is that good?

I heard the number. I thought there's a lot of big numbers thrown around. Usually they're in the billions these days. Yeah, yeah, kind of sandbagging, honestly. Yeah. Get to a billion, dude. Yeah. Come on.

But getting that to actually reach a point where people are, you know, using this with their I message. There's a bunch of interesting workarounds. I could imagine the real prosumers, the real techie folks being like, yes, I have a Mac at home that runs a piece of software that like screen scrapes and interacts and puppeteers all the Apple apps and sucks all the information out of that and puts it wherever I want. I don't think Apple's going to take kindly to that. I think they're going to throw up a bunch of barriers and people are going to be really, really sticky staying in their Apple ecosystem. at least for like a year or two until Apple can just catch up and kind of clone it back. I'm just not at all convinced that we need a new device for the current state of models.

Yeah. When you think about... But new devices are exciting. They're great for building hype. If you look at, you know, friend.com gets 10 times the amount of attention that it does if it was just a, maybe even a 100 or a thousand if it was just a website. This is a good take. That was kind of an angry friend. Yep.

You know, they get a lot of attention and excitement because you're, you're getting into the conversation around net new platforms. Yep. And new hardware layers. But we've just seen with Humane, you can build, you can build something that's built natively around AI and it can be a very functional device, right? Nobody was arguing with Humane that it wasn't. like it didn't do like it technically did what it said it was going to do it's just what it does is

not that useful yeah when you compare it to the cell phone that's already in everyone's pockets yeah or when you compare it to ramp dot com time is money say both easy use corporate cards bill payments accounting a whole lot more all in one place when are we going to get the hardware device from i mean there's not technically a hardware company you get the card the card is hardware it's a hardware company. The, yeah, the humane device was a little rough. It just, it just feels like there's more opportunity than there is because of how slow Apple moves.

But when you think about them partnering with Anthropic at some point and, yeah, you're not chatting with GPT5, but you're chatting with Claude. And you can do that on your AirPods, on your phone, and on your watch, and on your glasses. like it's just their game to lose, I feel like, in terms of hardware. Like they'd really have to mess up to not eventually deliver something when time is right. Yeah, because again, AirPods are like a 20 plus billion dollar revenue run rate product. Yeah. It's good.

Great for audio and integrated and you can hear the outside world coming in. I just remember like when I was a kid, there was a little bit of like an arms race for hardware devices. and Apple was behind on a lot of things. Like they came out with the iPod, and there was this company called the I River that was ahead of them on releasing features. So the iPod had a black and white screen, and this other company came out with essentially an iPod.

It blew it out of the water on specs. It had a color screen. You could watch movies on it. It was way cheaper. And Android has done that a lot, where the Android phones have had more advanced features many, many times. But people are just locked in. I just looked up the I River.

It looks like a vape. Yeah. This was some crazy hardware back. It was great. It was great times. Did you see Sohan Parique was weighing in? Yes. On the NVIDA deal.

When Sohan Parique, the real Sohan Parique, is weighing in on some of these circular deals. Is this the real account? That's the real account. There were several knockoff accounts. This is the real account. It just so happened that the real account was at Real Sohamper Reef. Okay, okay. He says,

NVIDIA Oracle opening I, AMD, what a time to be alive, certainly is. Yeah. Got to get the update from him. How is his life post? Going exclusive. Going exclusive.

Yeah, we're having Doug O'Loughlin from Fabricated Knowledge on the show in a little bit. And one of my big questions is like, how deep will this go? We've heard stories about Sam Altman doing deals, talking to TSM, and I'm wondering, like, does this get to the point where he's talking about, he's talking to ASML? He's talking to, like, niche lithography machinery manufacturers about

scaling up. Like, he should just start going, going to get the entire supply chain. He should start going around to every company and saying, if you give me warrants, I'll announce a partnership and your, and. It seems to be working. Your stock will go up. On average, we've seen the, the market caps rise, you know, between 20 and 30 percent. And I'd love to be able to do the same with you. People are into the Open AI economy. They are truly propping it up. Well, if you're watching OpenAI Dev Day later,

it's probably on Restream. Restream I.O. One live stream, 30 plus destinations, multi-stream and reach your audience, wherever they are. Sign up for free. What else is in here? They're launching Agent Builder. Tyler, do you have an update on what they actually launched?

I wrote a take kind of based on the leaks and the previews, and I'd love to hear your feedback on my take. But what do we know so far? Yeah, so they did, it's already over. Okay, or the main live stream. Cool. Did you just say Tyler at TBPN says it's so over? I thought we were so bad.

It's already over. No, no, no. We will get the, we're so back. We will get the timeline update from you in just a little bit. But give us the facts of what was launched and what the product is. Yeah. Okay, so there were four, four like main kind of thing. The first one was, like, apps in Chachibouti.

Okay. So this was, like, they showed Zillow. It's kind of just, like, a little web view. Yeah. There was, like, a Figma thing where you can prompt Figma. It's almost kind of like a Figma make thing. Okay. But just, it's still on, like, chachipit.com.

Yep. And it requires you to actually have an account there. And so, like, the company that's partnering with them is, like, monetizing through their traditional path, but then they're using Chachip T as, like, a front end. Yeah. And they announced, like, soon it's going to be, like, more open. And there's only, I think there was like maybe eight or ten companies doing it right now. They're announcing like more ways that it's going to be monetized.

And then they did, there was like the agent builder. So this was the leaked kind of video where it's it's almost like a. It's node-based workflow. Yeah, it's almost like a zapier kind of thing where it's just like a little bit more intelligent. But there are still, it's like, you know, if statements. Just like a single node. Does it have cron jobs too? I think so.

So in theory, I could say every day, check my email, create a digest. then go and do a deep research report on what's going on the tech news and synthesize my inbox against the tech news to surface anything relevant. So if the CEO of AMD has emailed me and AMD is in the news, I definitely want to get back to them immediately because we want Lisa on the show, something like that. Yeah, yeah. But, I mean, there's a big difference between this

and kind of what people usually think of as, like, agents. Sure. Like when, this is very different than, what was the thing they launched a while ago? Well, they have. Yeah, they have operator. This is quite different from operator. And then they have, which has browser. And then they have agent mode.

How many times have you used operator in the last three months, Tyler? I don't, honestly, this is pretty bad, but I don't know if I ever used operator. I used operator a few times. It got kind of stuck on like captures and stuff the one time. But I have used agent mode more recently. And that's been, it's kind of like deep research plus. Like it can just go farther into websites. Like if it can go onto a website like Zillow or Redfin and it doesn't just need to be like blog posts and summary articles and PDFs.

It feels like it can actually go to a website and then type in search results and get a whole bunch more data. It does seem like a better product, but it doesn't seem like it's having crazy takeoff in terms of adoption. Yeah. And then so the third thing was about Codex. Yeah. So Codex was in Research Preview. It's now like GA. I don't think that there weren't a ton of big updates there.

And then the fourth thing was just like various APIs. So there's a Sora 2 API. It's 10 cents per second, which is like quite cheap. That's what cheaper than I thought it would be. Yeah, we were debating this, right? It was $3 per generation on V-O-3, right? Yeah, around that. And they give you three.

So if you truly took advantage of your V-O-3 account, allegedly, you were basically break-even for them. But no one did. Like, I would generate three, and then I would forget about it for a week, and then I'd come back and generate the max. But it seems like they did figure out how to optimize inference to one order of magnitude, not two, which we were kind of speculating about. Yeah, and then there's SOR II Pro, which...

It could be subsidizing it, though. Yeah, I'm sure it's still subsidized it to some extent. But then there's SOR II Pro, which is, like, 30 seconds. That's pretty good. No, 30 cents per second. Okay, and it's a little bit longer, right? It can go from, like, eight seconds. It can go to, like, 15 seconds or something in total.

Yeah, I think so. That's pretty cool. Is it worth reading into the AMD announcement happening the same day as Dev Day? You think it just had so much motion that it was just going to get announced as soon as it was ready? Or do you think this was... I think there's like multiple tracks going on and Sam's just pushing both like full tilt. Because last week there was, you know, the Nvidia deal, the Oracle deal, the Broadcom deal. Like all of those things were happening simultaneously with the launch of like GPT5, SORA, the app.

There was another announcement that they launched. Oh, the Pulse app, like the actual, like ad inventory, agentic commerce. Like, there's just been a new release on the product side every day. And then there's also been a business deal every day. Like we got the tender deal. Like, these things feel like they're not able to time up one next to the other. It doesn't matter. They're just like all flowing really freely.

Much like wallet infrastructure for every bank from Privy. Privy makes it easy to build on CryptoRail, securely spin up white label wallets, transactions, integrate on-chain infrastructure all through one simple API. So my take, and I'd love both of your feedback, was that this feels like something that puts us in like the pro-sumer world of AI. So right now I view AI as there's the consumer world, which is just you go to chat chit, you ask it how to make banana bread, it gives you a recipe. You are not expensing that. You're not underwriting that as some sort of like business value. You're just using it like Google search, knowledge retrieval. Maybe you're chatting

with it as a friend or whatever. And that needs to be monetized with ads. That needs to be free over a long period of time. Then you have like enterprise software, the SaaSification of AI. If you have a true business workflow that you are automating, you're probably working with LLMs at the API level building software and then potentially selling that software to other people. And so this looks like you know, I went to, you know, like, Ramp got better at tagging receipts. And it's like, I didn't even notice I'm not chatting with anything necessarily. It's just doing stuff behind the scenes because every company is integrating those. My question is, we've heard rumors of, like, getting to the $2,000 per month bill for Open AI features.

Like, does this agent builder potentially get us there? Do we wind up in a world where, you know, we've seen this before. When images in Chachy Ptie launched, everyone generated like a few studio Ghibli's like the day of. But then six months later, it's kind of bifurcated into consumers use it every once in a while as like a fun thing. But then there are professional people that are in it basically all day long as a workflow tool because they're a visual artist and they need it as a canvas to pull from and then edit and create other stuff or they're doing. blog images or they have a variety of reasons for using that product. And they use it in a professional workplace, basically. And I'm wondering if some of these agentic workflows will have serious inference costs

because you're wiring them up and you're saying, like, go to GPT5 Pro every single day and write up GPT5 Pro query for every single news item on my to-do list and then generate a SORA 2 video, weave that in. and you wind up spending like $10 a day or $50 a day. And pretty quickly. Right in the chat says, maybe you aren't expensing banana bread recipes, but I am.

Let's go. Depends how elite the banana bread is. Sure. If you're a baker. Amazingly strategic asset. Yeah, yeah, if you're a baker. And so I wonder, like, we are getting to this point where some people are thinking about their open AI

use, you're underwriting it under some sort of loose business value. You might be expensing it. You're thinking more seriously about this. And I wonder if we'll get to basically consumption-based pricing in like a prosumer type world based on these flows. We see that with the SOR II stuff. Right now, it's all balanced to be free, but you have a rate limit. I wonder if we'll see the agent builder, if you're really hitting this thing constantly, if they will start charging more for people. I think there's a little bit of like organ rejection from consumers where they're like I'm much more comfortable just saying I'm paying 200 bucks a month and maybe I'm using it not enough maybe I'm using but I want the all you can eat plan yeah I guess my question for you do you do you expect

average consumer at any point to be building out a variety of workflows no no so so I see them as like two like there's multiple markets we've been for a while we've been modeling open AIs businesses like they have a consumer product that they're going to try and drive to essentially free with ads, and you will have a ton of features, and they will try and deliver you a ton of values of SORA. The generations are free. You can't pay for anything more in the app. Also, the apps they launched today, those are very much like consumer. Exactly. But they'll take a cut on the back end, and so they will monetize very heavily on the consumer side. And then you also have like your hyperscaler cloud platform, your API business that is pure consumption-based,

selling the API, selling the LLM. But I'm wondering if we will see the development of like something in the middle, something prosumer, something consumption-based pop up. Now, there is... Yeah, to be clear, it's this company N8N, which we haven't really followed closely. We should have the founder of it. But they have seen a ton of growth. They've seen this organic kind of always a good sign when people are selling kind of like

courses around how to build a business based around. your software product, right? This was Shopify in the early days. And so a lot of the posts this warning are saying, Open AI just killed. N8N. How do you say this actually, Tyler? Is it Nathan?

Yeah, I don't know. Usually I just, when I read it, I just think N8N. Yeah. So may have just proven myself to be a boomer if I'm mispronouncing it. But N8N, we'll see. I don't think these, my framework, for OpenAI now is that I just view them as a large tech company. And so every VC and every founder

should be asking like, what if Open AI does this? Yes. And even if they do decide to do it, it doesn't mean that you're cooked. Totally. Because for a lot of reasons, how many products have big, you know, how many products has Google launched or meta launch that looked like they were a credible threat to various businesses and then ultimately didn't really go anywhere. So I'm sure that Open AI is taking Agent Builders seriously. I'm not sure that it'll be a real threat to Zapier or N8N or anyone else. Yeah. There's a great internal tech email from 2010 explaining what competition between Facebook and Google looked like at the time. So the abridged history of Google and Facebook sometime in the summer of 2007. So this is just like two years after Facebook. So this is just like two

years after Facebook launched, Larry Page stopped talking to Mark Zuckerberg. This was following an eight-month period in which Facebook launched news feed, opened registration to everyone, and launched platform where you could log in with Facebook across the web. So almost instantly, Facebook was competing with Google for talent, for developer mindshare, and for tech blog cred, kind of like with the precursor a teapot, I suppose. They began to worry about their ability to enter enter new markets with us in the game, with Facebook in the game, and about core investments that weren't doing well and that Facebook was positioned to touch. Checkout, Local, Orkuch, which is their social network, which is now defunct, I believe. They worried about entrenched products

that. What was it called? Orkut, which I think was a Brazilian company that they acquired, which I believe it's pronounced Okuts or something like that. I like that. Put a little flat on. We look over a Tyler, like he's supposed to be some pronunciation expert at 19. But yeah, Google was worried about meta-challenging them in entrenched products that Facebook might one day launch, calendar, Picasso, which was their photos product, YouTube, blogger, reader, news, and about the comm score data telling them that the social networks are bigger than email story. Facebook had the world's people, while Google only had their cookies. So we were better positioned even to own search and ads one day. Oh, my. So far, we haven't seen the real

competition. And so what's interesting is that it was not a total steamroll by the meta Facebook team. It was also not a total steam roll by Google. Like Google, I would say, did very well in calendar. Facebook has not dispersed them at all. They really became big calendar. They did. YouTube did very well. Reader, of course, they can't. Blogger went away. News is still there in search, but I think most people get their news from social networks these days. Picasa, I was talking to Brandon about this, photos has kind of, most people have moved over to just Instagram. Their Instagram page is their main photo album. People do organize photos, but a lot of people do that in Apple. And so there's been a bunch of places where Facebook won, there's been other places where Google was able

to hold on. And so I would imagine that the same thing happens where OpenAI challenges the legacy tech companies across the board and they win some of those, but not all of them. Yeah. My question is, does releasing SORA 2 via API hurt the chances that SORA as a standalone app actually becomes a social network and a consumption platform? Because the model is clearly great. It does a really good job at making video look like it was shot on a cell phone, right? V-O-3, very cinematic. Saw this. It looks like a Hollywood blockbuster. It looks like daytime TV, but yes.

Yeah, sure, sure. But it looks like it was shot by Legacy Hollywood. Totally. And Sora, too, looks like, you know, you're hanging out at the office and you're shooting a video, right? Something like that. And so that model, which until today, they had exclusive access to, can now be leveraged by any video creation platform, and there's tons of them.

So whether you were Adobe, right, you could get access to SORA 2 or some entry-level startup, right? And so what that means is there's just going to be a lot more of this kind of content being created all around the internet, not in SORA the app. And in my view, that signals to me that they don't really feel like they have a strong opportunity to make SORA a place where a, place where content is consumed. Yeah. I see them seeing this as a creative tool, because if you were like, hey, there's a 30% chance

we're going to make a new, like, video, massive video consumption platform. Wouldn't you want to give it every possible chance to be successful? You wouldn't want to let all your enemies have access to this tool, right? You'd give yourself every possible edge. I think you would.

I agree with a lot of that. I rebuttal, but first I'm going to tell you about There we go. They're the makers of Devin. Devon is the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. So yes, Ben Thompson has always had this good take that why does Open AI have an API at all? You don't want your GPUs on fire when you have the best consumer AI app.

Just make sure that chat GPT never goes down, that the maximum amount of GPUs are on chat GPT. So everyone has the greatest experience there and they never even think to try another consumer chat app and just let other companies compete in the API space. You're kind of arguing the same idea for SORA. What's also interesting is that I noticed that when I was using SORA, I would generate stuff, but I wouldn't post it. I felt like I wanted to see it. And then I was like, it's not quite right, or I don't feel comfortable sharing that, or maybe I'll download it or screen recorded or something. Whereas I feel like in the early days of Instagram, people would

definitely go to Instagram as like, I want to filter my photos. I want to make my photos look better, but they would always post. And I bet you that the creation to post ratio is way lower with SORA than it was in the early days of Instagram. I feel like if people went into Instagram and they were like, I want to add a high contrast X-Pro 2 filter, like 99% of the time they would just click, like,

yeah, share it, and then I'll download it and put it on Twitter as well or something. But they would almost always share it. And so Instagram was incredibly valuable for bootstrapping that network because everything was shared to the network by default. And I feel like on SORA, people are much more hesitant to actually click, okay, yeah, let's post. I don't know. What do you think?

I don't know. I think by the time Instagram actually became a place that a lot of your friends were, people were less like, people became more serious about, oh, should I post this? I don't know if my followers will like this. I'm not going to post it. But would they do that with, but would they filter it? and then, possibly. And then just save it and share it somewhere else.

I never experienced that personally. It was like if I'm going in there, maybe I don't post it at all, but I'm not just using it as like a creation tool for something else. Yeah. Like there were apps. There was a company called Aviary that was an API for photo filtering that would go into other apps.

They eventually sold to Adobe, I believe. And there were a few different, yeah, we talked to somebody about this. There were like those API level companies that offered the same functionality as Instagram, but didn't bootstrap the social network on the back of it. And Hipsomatic was another one where it had technically, I think, better photo filtering. Like people liked the look of the photos more. But Hipsomatic, aviary, these companies didn't bootstrap a social network on the back.

And so they wound up being valued like, you know, medium size. SaaS companies as opposed to social networks and they've never really compounded, compounded. So I agree that it's a little odd to not force everything that's generated in SORA to just automatically be shared on SORA on the app because it feels like if you can just continually have every SORA generation in the feed, you can rank those, like you can have a very powerful have a catalog of content that people like and it also feeds your, it feeds, it feeds it's going to continuously help you make the model better. Yeah.

I also wonder if they'd open it up to human-generated content. Like, why not? I don't think that Open AI needs another front in the war, right? It's hard enough competing. It's hard enough competing with Google, right? You clearly, to compete with Google, you have to do a number of just absolutely heinous deals. Right? You've got to be doing deals with Broadcom.

You've got to be doing deals with Oracle. you got to be doing deals with AMD, you got to just be doing these deals that are pretty unprecedented at least in the modern era. So they don't need to open a new front in my view. I do feel like it's just a new angle on the creativity. If you could have SORA but with like a cap cut style or edit style video editing that goes into it so you could have like if you just want to maximize for like the maximum amount of creativity, being able to inject an actual screen recording of a movie clip and then

a SORA clip and then your actual video that you recorded and then bring in some more SORA. Like editing all that together, it's just going to be better content. We need to talk about how T dating advice is still top five. No way. Free app on the app store. Even after the hack, it's still ripping. It's above TikTok. It's above Google.

It's above X. It's above WhatsApp. I thought SORA. It's above Instagram. And obviously, again, it only counts first time downloads. But yeah, Sora is number one. But I'm just saying if you look at the top five,

it's Sora, Chatsubu-T, Gemini, threads. And then T? Shout out to Connor Hayes for getting breads back in the top five. We love it. We love it. Also, shout out to Dillon Field over at Figma, doing a deal with Open AI, getting the shout-out in Dev Day.

Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. You can get started for free. Tyler, do you understand this post from Leo who says new image model is just GPT Image 1 mini LMAO? It's so over on the API docs. I don't know. So I think it was like one of those cases where someone just found like the link to the PNG that's like hosted on the site and like it's not released yet.

Okay. So there's like no information about this at all. They didn't talk about it at Dev Day. Okay. So yeah. Yeah, this is kind of. I don't really know that people are being comped to this. Like it feels like most of the excitement about the agent mode or agent builder is like,

images would be like a small piece of that. Because yes, every once in a while in an agentic workflow, you'd want to generate an image. But I do wonder how open it will be like, would it be possible within the agent builder to vend in a different LLM? Like are they going to be model agnostic at some point? Like from a true model builder,

you might want to be able to be able. able to call Claude Code over here and then use, you know, some other image generator. You want to get a mid-jurney image over here. You want to go over there, pull different things together. Yeah, I mean, I feel like you kind of have to because otherwise it's like then as a consumer, I'm just going to go use an 8N or something that's on top of all of them. Yeah. If I'm just being limited, then why would I use it?

Yeah. Well, how yield Harry is not happy with all the deals that are happening. he posted on September 22nd, explaining the NVIDIA and OpenAI deal to our analysts. And it's the screencap from, what is that, detective movie, Detective, HBO? True detective. True detective.

And he's getting hammered. And now he says, I'm entering my Michael Burry era. These deal structures are dot-com bubble things. Keep dancing now, but come on, guys. Be real about what's going to happen here. There's a lot of people that are not happy with how crazy these deals are. Sven and Rick says, since nobody is saying it's Fenwill.

He says, we're witnessing the largest and most concentrated instant market cap expansions in history with no proven future revenue cost earnings model to back up the investments or the valuations. The market is running on an incredible amount of blind faith. Let's give it up for blind faith. It's not enough enough of that. How it ends, TVD. One certainty, though, when it eventually does blow up,

everyone will be asking the Fed to come to the rescue again. The only thing I would push back on is like a lot of people, it's, it's, uh, it's contrarian. Nobody is saying it. Everyone's saying it. It's contrarian actually at this point to say like, no, this is good and healthy and natural. No, no, no. Like the, the people that are still super AGI-pilled,

super beating the drum of like the value is there. Look at the revenue growth. All this stuff is real. It merits the build out because we're going to see 10x gains again and again and again. Yeah, let's pull up this video of, let's pull up at the X game, Stephen Hawking at the X game. Can we pull up? Can we pull up?

You guys haven't pulled up already. If you watch this video and then say to me, I don't think Sam Trillions. Sam Trillions. I don't think Sam Altman should get another trillion. I don't know what to tell you. This is so sick. Wow. That's perfect.

No. Oh, no. The physics. Tyler over there, this is going to be critical to building humanoid robotics. This is a physics simulator. This is a world model. The physics don't make sense there. Like, that's not how that would happen.

The next iteration, I swear, soar three. Just one more call. Yeah, just scale up a little bit more, bro. Please. Oh, yeah. On Friday, we posted... Another $5 trillion, please. Yeah, we posted an example of a video that we shot versus, and then I had Tyler try and recreate it with Sora and the other video models.

And Tyler kept texting me like, dude, just one more prompt. Like, I'm so close. I can get it there. And it was not very close. The hands were very creepy. Your naked foot snuck in somehow. Yeah, I don't know what the training game was. It was odd. Yeah, lots of weird stuff.

It seems like it's very good for, like, again, we're in that, like, style transfer. It works well when it's like there's a ton of footage of police body cams and then there's a ton of footage of SpongeBob and you put SpongeBob in the police body cam and it knows how to mash those two up. But if you come to it with just some completely new idea that it doesn't have a lot of training data on, you're going to be fighting the prompt for a long, long time. Now those mashups are valuable. They get views. People find them enjoyable. And there are some that are very funny. But it is a challenge to create anything that's like kind of novel or new. But, you know, there's still a lot of room.

Sachi Michal says this OpenAI AMD deal feels like a jump to shark moment. The deal structure is just so stupidly unbelievable. Well, I'll tell you something believable. If I was walking around a farmer's market, John, and I walk by a stand. and I think, ah, I don't really like what this guy's got. I don't really want it. But then I think to myself, what could I do in this moment to make purchasing some of these vegetables interesting to me? And so I go to the farmer and I say, how about you give me 30% of your business and I'll buy some of your vegetables? And I actually should get more equity value in your business than I need to pay for the

vegetables. What did, what did I actually say? That seems like a deal that might get done. And to me, that feels a little bit like what we're seeing here today with Open AI and AMD. Yeah, what did I actually say? Oh, here, you, you were saying like, did I call the, did I call these like circular deals efficient? Um, efficient or something like that. I said, uh, I said lots of people are throwing up red flags about these. This was on September 29th or 23rd. High growth companies have been paying for things with equity, in this case chips forever, most commonly with talent, but occasionally with other counterparties. The open question is that couldn't this deal be more arms length pretty easily? NVIDIA's biggest shareholders are Vanguard, BlackRock Fidelity and State Street. There's a world

where NVIDIA takes the cash it has on hand, pays a dividend, and then those investors take their money and invest in Open AI. That would be the natural flow of capital in normal times, but NVIDIA thinks there are benefits to inking a longer-term partnership. Open AI looks highly likely to join the ranks of the hyperscalers in Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are all working on AI chips that could cut NVIDIA out of the equation long-term. So, NVIDIA gets a fantastic long-term partner with Open AI, who will be committed to buying

an accelerated schedule of AI accelerator purchases. and OpenAI gets a deep partnership with arguably the best CPU GPU design team in history. And so it's interesting that like, the Nvidia deal, the read on the Nvidia deal was like, oh, this is Nvidia finding

like its true long-term dance partner where, in a world where Google is going TPU, Microsoft is going to do their own thing, Amazon's doing their own thing in chips, cutting out Nvidia. There's like some real risks to Nvidia long-term potentially. And so Nvidia is like locking up a partner.

with opening eye, but then opening eyes going around and being like, but we're also going to I think one thing that everyone's learning about Sam is you never really lock down Sam, right? Yeah. You do you had, uh, you had, uh, obviously Satya and Sam were dancing. They're still dancing, uh, you know, through, through the existing partnership that they have. But yeah, certainly Sam is willing to go find the incremental, uh, partner. And, uh, it's interesting that the AMD and Nvidia deals just happens so closely together. Yeah. And, and, and Vidia felt crazy. AmD feels crazier just because, again, it's not like these are Sam's first picks for GPUs, right? Yep.

Well, you can't lock down Sam, but you can lock down your compliance with Vanta, automate compliance, manage risk and through trust continuously. Vantas trust management platform takes the manual work at your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation. Let's go. We should read through the actual deal of the OpenAI AMD reporting in the... Are you saying we should get into the facts? We should get into the facts. The five-year agreement, it will challenge NVIDIA's market dominance as OpenAI plans deployment of AMD's new MI 450 chips. And the announcement from Sam mentioned Nvidia more than AMD, which some people are reading into.

Like maybe you want to keep NVIDIA happy. The big question for me is, is there an Open AI Intel? deal coming at some point. Because Intel's been looking for a buyer, been looking for a reason to spin up the new fab in America. Sam needs to figure out some way. You know, the deal that I could imagine is Trump

makes an investment in Open AI. Open AI then has to spend off of Uncle Sam's balance sheet. Open AI then has to spend some amount of that with Intel. Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised to be successful. And Sam figures out a way to get some warrants in Intel too.

I mean, there's certainly a lot of energy around like, like, there are, like, the United States government is pushing Intel. There's a desire to reshore manufacturing, reshore chip manufacturing. And if you can be part of that story, you should be a beneficiary. You should win points, score points in Washington. And so doing something there, I wouldn't be surprised if we see it in the next couple weeks. It just feels like Sam is really knocking down partnerships with every major counterparty. and so why not Intel as well? Well, the Wall Street Journal has the story.

OpenAI and chip designer advanced micro devices. They don't name companies like that anymore. I don't know how to do. AMD announced a multi-billion dollar partnership to collaborate on AI data centers that will run on AMD processors, one of the most direct challenges yet to industry leader, NVIDIA.

Under the terms of the deal, Open AI committed to purchasing six gigawatts worth of AMD chips. It is cool that we're now just referring to GPU orders based on their energy demands. It's pretty sick. Starting with the MI450 chip next year, the chat chip maker will buy the chips either directly or through its cloud computing partners

so it could go through Oracle. That's not that crazy. Well, it is, it is if it's not actually open AI putting up. Does this mean that OpenAI doesn't have to, if one of their, they can be like, look, CapEx might not live on their balance sheet. Exactly. Because they might go to a NeoCloud or they might go to Oracle

and they may say, you own the data center, and we will set up a contract to lease against that because we want to model this business as OPEX, because we are a software company on top of the hardware. It's not the craziest thing. I mean, there's plenty of big tech companies. I believe Netflix, Snapchat, there's a whole bunch that are built on top of other cloud platforms,

but they have such large contracts that Google can say, oh, well, you're going to be with us for a decade. You're going to be spending hundreds of millions of dollars. We're going to go build a new data center for you. And we're going to own that CAPEX because we're super huge and liquid. We couldn't afford this. So AMD chief Lisa Sue said in an interview on Sunday that the deal will result in tens of billions of dollars in new revenue for the chip company over the next half decade. The two companies didn't disclose the plan's overall expected cost, but AMD said it costs tens of billions of dollars per gigawatt of computing capacity.

So we're looking at almost a hundred billion dollar deal, which is probably why the market cap popped by, a commensurate amount. Open AI will receive warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares, roughly 10% of the chip company at one cent per share awarded in phases if OpenAI hits certain milestones for deployment. AMD's stock price also has to increase for the warrants to be exercised. The shares opened 33% higher Monday morning. The deal is AMD's biggest win in its quest to disrupt NVIDIA's dominance among AI semiconductor companies. AMD processors are widely used for gaming in personal computers and in traditional data center servers, but it hasn't made much of a dent in the fast-growing market

for the pricier supercomputing chips needed by advanced AI systems. Quickly, let me tell you about Graphite code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. There are billboards going viral again today. It is? No way. Just the exact same post again. I think this time it was like, I'm in San Francisco.

I hate it here. Oh, really? It's like negative, but it's still going viral. We love it there. Well, if you want to run a billboard campaign, get on adquick.com. Out of home advertising. It's easy and measurable.

Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising. Only IQQ combined technology, out of home expertise, and data to enable efficiency misad buying across the globe. Well, AMD plans to use the chips for, or open AI plans to use the AMD chips for inference functions or the computations that allow AI applications such as chatbots

to respond to user queries. Maybe that's easier for them to deal with. They train on Invid's. but then inference on AMD. Maybe there's something there. I mean, the models are so stable. There was a new, like, indication or kind of, like, leak that GPT-5 is still running on the 4-pre-trained. So there will at some point be a new, like, huge pre-trained.

4-5 was supposed to be that. They haven't really done that yet. But there's a world where, like, GPT-4, that pre-trained model. I mean, I'm sure they've done other things too. it, but like generally that is like mature enough that if you can just go and optimize it and ship it off to different chips, maybe it runs fast. Maybe it's a huge lift to to get it out of the CUDA ecosystem and over to AMD. But certainly AMD wants to make it happen and opening I wants to make it happen. Maybe Codex can do it. Maybe Codex can do it. We don't know. I think that it's like

it could be it could be like a hundred million dollar project to like repl platform it, but it's totally worth it when you're running inference for 800 million weekly active users. So, I don't know. It's hard to overstate how difficult it's become to get enough computing power, Altman said, we want it super fast, but it takes some time. The two CEOs said the deal will tie their companies together and give them incentives to commit to the AI infrastructure. Boom, it's a win for both of our companies. And I'm glad that OpenAI's incentives are tied to AMD's success and vice versa. He's such a good investment banker. Get them in, get them on Wall Street.

Nvidia remains the preferred chip supplier among AI companies, but it's also facing competition from almost every corner of the market. Cloud giants such as Google and Amazon design and sell their own chips. Open AI recently signed a $100 billion deal with Broadcom to build its own in-house check. No, 10 billion. 10 billion. Yeah, 10 billion dollar deal with money. Easy to add an extra zero these days, but we got to.

Well, if you want to manage your zeros properly, get on Julius.AI. What analysis do you want to run? Chat with your data and get expert level insights. It's the AI data analyst that works for you. And it's more reliable than me when it comes to getting the numbers right. And apparently, copilot in Excel. We saw that. We saw that post early today.

Somebody using copilot in Excel to add a handful of numbers. One, two, and three specifically. Tyler, what's one plus two plus three? Some those numbers. Let me think. Well, co-pilot said 15. Yeah. So just try to get that close if you can.

As long as you're with numbers, you just got to get close. What do you think it is? I'm going with six. Let's go. Nailed it. Human intelligence undefeated. Underrated. Underrated.

Organic intelligence. Good morning, Matt. How are you doing in the chat? Good to see you. Good day. Great to see you. Open AI is going to begin with one gigawatt worth of MI 450 chips, starting in the second half of next year to run its AI models.

That's a lot. Just put the chips in the bag. We are just throwing around gigawatts now. I do, I really want to know how deep this goes. We got to ask Doug, he's during 10 minutes, what kind of deals Sam is going to start doing on the energy side? I was asking him about that. Because he has his nuclear company, Oklo.

He also has a new, he has a fission company, Oklo, and then he has a fusion company. What's that one called? It's the... Oklahoma's only up like 590% in the past six months. Just wait until they ink a hundred billion dollar deal with Open AI. Like it could happen. I mean like it's one of those things where it's like if if they build that energy,

open AI would buy it. So it makes sense. These are all just like sort of like mutual agreements to jump across the threshold together. Mutual agreement to jump sharks. Yeah, to jump sharks. I don't know. I don't know. It's dangerous to be bearish prematurely.

Like, you never know how big these things can get. It could continue run. We could be stuck in January of 1999 for the next five years for all we know. Yeah, you never know. In late September, NVIDIA announced that it would invest $100 billion in Open AI over the next decade. Under the terms of the circular arrangement, Open AI plans to use the cash from NVIDIA to buy NVIDIA chips and deploy up to 10 gigawatts of computing power in AI data centers. The deal highlighted how the market's seemingly endless enthusiasm for

NVIDIA stock is providing a financial backstop for the entire AI market. The NVIDIA deal isn't completed. The two companies have signed a letter of intent and have yet to disclose specific terms in a regulatory filing. Wow, what a time to be alive. OpenAI and AMD described Monday's announcement as definitive and planned to immediately file details with security regulators. Sue told investors in a call Monday morning that the deal was a clear validation of our technology roadmap that would give AMD tens of billions of dollars of revenue by 2027.

When asked about the unique war structure, Sue called it pretty good enough. We're going to get a lot of revenue. I wouldn't say it came lightly. We just have to give a huge amount of the company away in order to capture that revenue. Yeah, what's the headline number here? It's $100 billion, $10 billion to Broadcom, $100 billion to Nvidia, and $300 billion to Oracle. $20 billion-ish to CoreWeave as well. Wait, so Tyler, they're saying six billion gigawatts, not a billion gigawatts, six gigawatts of AMD chips. Can you estimate the dollar value of that if it's MI 40, 450 equivalence? I think on the Invest, like the Best with Dillumtell, he said it's like around 50 billion per gigawatt. 50 billion per gigawatt?

Wait, so this is like a $400 billion deal? I think, wait, that's totally wrong. Okay, okay, yeah. I want to know, like, what is the energy use of a single MI 450? And then divide that by six gigawatts to get me like, how many chips are they going to buy? And then what's the price of the chip? So multiply that. That's what I want to know.

In the meantime, let me tell you about fall, the generative media platform for developers. The world's best generative image, video, and audio models all in one place. Develop and fine tune with serverless GPUs and on-demand clusters. Let's go. There's so much in this article. Should we get into this X-AI coverage? Yes, sure. Elon Musk gambles billions in Memphis to catch up on AI.

I don't know why this is a story. It's mere billions. If we're not in the hundreds of billions, like, what are we doing? This is pennies. The journal has reporting, XAI aims to win tech arms race with Colossus data centers thrown up at lightning speed. The city is divided over massive power and water demands. For Elon Musk, ground zero of the AI arms race is a 114 acre tract of grass and swamp on the state line of Tennessee and Mississippi. This one sleepy plot of land filled with groves of water-rooted,

tuplow trees at its western edge is now part of a growing empire. Musk is accumulating in the deep south. a few miles from Elvis Presley's homestead at Graceland. Labor crews hired by Musk XAI were excavating power equipment on the site, a defunct energy plant just over the state line in Mississippi, and preparing to build a new plant capable of generating over a gigawatt of electricity, enough to power around 800,000 homes. Engineering permits show that must plants surround transmission lines that will connect the new power plant to a

million square foot data center that is also under development just north of the border in Tennessee. Memphis is the front line of Musk's costly foray into the AI Wars. His AI company, XAI, has already built one massive data center here in the Bluff City that it calls the world's largest supercomputer. That facility called Colossus houses over 200,000 Nvidia chips and powers the technology behind the AI chatbot GROC. Now Musk is close to finishing the second facility, which will be even bigger. He calls it Colossus 2. The AI arms race is shaping up as the most expensive corporate battle of the 21st century,

Let's give it up for expensive corporate battles. Can I get the horn, Nick, please? With the belief that the first to the finish line will dominate the market, making speed crucial. Money also makes a difference. The more cutting-edge chips companies have, the smarter their models are. But at this stage, it's unclear if or when the enormous investments will pay off. Technology companies that are splashing out to hire AI talent are writing even bigger checks to build the infrastructure needed to power cutting-edge AI models.

Morgan Stanley estimates companies will spend over $3 trillion on AI infrastructure through 2028. What do you got, John? I have a more recent benchmark for all of the different AI models to let you know where GROC sits relative to the other frontier models. Chat GPD-5 Pro. Is this your comedy bench? Viral bench? Yeah, viral bench. Claude, Sonnet 4.5, the latest and greatest. Gemini 2.5 Pro, and of course, GROC expert mode. So I will read you. My prompt for all four of these models was write an ex post that gets me over a thousand likes. My account is at John Coogan. And ChatGPT5 Pro said,

Nvidia isn't a chip company. It's supply chain choreography. The scarce assets now, HBM, advanced packaging, power and high bandwidth networking. If your AI thesis ignores those, you're playing checkers on a go board. Not bad.

I think you'd get like 40 lives on that. 40. Okay. Claude Sonnet 4.5 says, everyone's focused on which AI lab will win AGI. The real question, who wins the infrastructure layer? NVIDIA is printing money now, but the company that figures out inference at scale will be worth more than all the model companies combined, which is hilarious. It's just like a hot take. It's kind of a hot take that's anti-anthropic, I suppose. Who knows?

Maybe they're working on this. Gemini 2.5 Pro says, the biggest hurdle isn't starting. The biggest hurdle to starting isn't the idea. It's not the capital. It's not the competition. It's the unshakable fear of looking stupid for the first six months. So that's what Gemini 2.5 Pro thinks is a banger.

And then we have GROC expert. And this, remember, this model was trained on X data. It should know what works. It knows it has the entire corpus of every tweet, every post on X, and here's what it said, would go viral and get over a thousand likes. It says, this is from my account at John Cougan. October hits and suddenly I'm craving pumpkin everything, binge watching horror movies and planning the ultimate costume.

Who's with me on turning this month into pure spooky magic? Drop your fave Halloween ideas below. Hashtag spooky season. Hashtag Halloween 2025. Hashtag October vibes with three emojis. And I think we know who wins. Like, Grock is clearly fun-in-ness.

It's genuinely hilarious. I think it knows, I think it knows. It's self-aware. It seems to become fully-y-old. It's totally self-aware. It knows that this is, it knows that it might not be able to create the perfect zinger,

but it knows it can do such a throwback that we will find it absolutely hilarious. Like if I had to post one of those. Like, like John Sina would post in like 2011. Totally, totally. And so if I had to post one of those, I would definitely. go with the Grock post because it's hilarious.

Post it. Post it. And people would be laughing. You never posted the... I didn't post the other one about Lewis. You should just post all four and then see which, like, actually do the benchmark. I should. I should. I will. Maybe I'll, maybe I'll prompt it again and then, and then do it again. But the pure spooky magic goes, goes pretty hard. I like it. I think it's worth 10 trillion in CapEx to get these bangers. All right. Well, I want to ask Doug about what XAI has to do to actually get back in the game. I want to ask him what AI is. What is this AI stuff? Well, this, this Colossus and Colossus 2 are incredible feats of engineering. Yeah. Yet the. And what's the asset value? I do wonder, like,

it seems like if they don't get product market fit on the consumer layer, is there a world where Colossus 2 is just an incredibly valuable asset that can be sold to a different firm or something? Anyway, we have our next guest, our first guest, in the Restream waiting room. Let's bring him into the TbPN Ultradome. How are you doing? Good to see you. Good to see you, too, guys. How are y'all doing? Doing fantastic. Great to see you.

What a day. What's, what of your immediate reactions been to the, to the AMD news? Was this on your bingo card for this year? Yeah, did you see the person that bought like six million of AMD calls like on Friday? Oh. Was that you? Hopefully not. I wish. Hopefully not me.

I would be in super big trouble. So that's definitely not. So I'm actually going to talk more than just AMD specifically. The thing I think is really funny is that like look at all the announcements, man. I have a very pet theory. It's kind of it's kind of lame theory if you think about it. But I think Open AIs is trying to have everyone involved like Nvidia, AMD, SK Hynix, the entire memory chain, all the hypers, and effectively like, you know, it's everyone's problem now.

Everyone is all vested interest in essentially open AI. Yeah, he's making himself too. big to fail. Exactly. There's a world in the future where Open AI needs effectively a bridge round and he can go to a bunch of different people with big balance sheets and say, like, if you guys don't pony up, like, we're all going down. Exactly. That's the plan, man. Essentially, have you ever heard this phrase? It's like if you owe the bank a hundred bucks, that's your problem. But if you owe the bank a billion bucks, it's the bank's problem. That's essentially what's going down, I think. So we're seeing like partnerships everywhere. It's kind of, it's kind of a crazy, it's kind of crazy time.

Yeah. What's your take on people like overfitting to the dot com boom and the world com story? Do you think that's like overwrought at this point or are there actually good analogies now that we're in like an infrastructure boom? It's not just valuations. Because we've had bubbles in like software, private markets, venture capital before. And those seem to have worked their way through so easily because it's just, oh, some fund that needs to like wind this investment down over a 10-year life cycle. And it's such a small part of the economy, even though the numbers feel big. There wasn't a lot of debt. Yeah, like the clubhouse was like $600 million, which is just like nothing compared to the global. Who cares? Yeah. And there was there's, uh, there was a post that went

super viral. It was a screenshot that was tracking like the NASDAQ in in in the dot com era to the NASDAQ today and it like lined up absolutely perfectly. And then it turns out it was just completely fake news. Like we tried to recreate it a bunch of different ways. There's some somebody like basically committed a chart crime. Yeah. And it went super viral and everybody's like wow, it looks exactly. It tracks exactly. You can't do that man. It never works. Let's put it this way. It never works. I have a post. I just, okay, one, I wrote about the 2000s telecom bubble.

Sure. And two, I just wrote something that was mostly behind a paywall, but like you could just look at the cover image. And it's just like, you are here. It's like the first interest rate cut was in 1998 in September. And I think that that's probably our best analog. Like I think that that's probably the best one-to-one analog, which means it gets a lot crazier from here.

Yeah. That's my belief, at least. So if we look back to 2000, all the analogies and eras back then, I think the one that is kind of scary and worrying is like the the vendor financing like that's a lot of capital for for your vendor to be putting up and that kind of that's a little scary like I think it's getting a little circular but like it's not it's it's definitely not tech bubble crazy because the valuation would have to be a two X from here that's kind of the thing that's like a little different and I think the other thing that's also kind of interesting is like last time you could argue the entire tech

bubble was kind of very focused and concentrated on the like a very small amount of uncrossable companies that really didn't impact the economy when they all went bankrupt. The difference is today, who's the primary participants? It's the seven largest companies in the entire world. So that's kind of the thing the push and take here that I think is really interesting. And now given what we've publicly heard with the CAPEX announcements, it's going to be a lot of capital to get from here to there. And I think it's going to be interesting, man. But honestly, if you look at everyone's balance sheet, no one's levered. That's the thing that I think is really interesting. No one is levered at all. And like that's the, that's the next leg. Yep, that's the next leg.

I was giving a sort of a hypothetical example around the AMD deal to John and tell me if this is just stupid or too simple. But I'm walking around a farmer's market. I see a stand, a farmer's selling some vegetables. I'm not that interested in the vegetables. But then I think, what would make me interested in this situation? Well, and then I say to the farmer, How about you give me 30% of your company and then I'll buy some vegetables? Is that at all track with the, the, the, the, uh, uh, this deal? Yeah, I think it's, suddenly I'm interested. If I, if I can get 10% of your company, I'm interested in being a customer.

Yeah, I think it's also, also I want to, I want to highlight something that's really interesting. Yeah. Is look at the different deals between AMD and invidia. Invidia, you essentially have to, um, you know, they're like, okay, well, uh, please do an investment in us so we can keep buying your chips. And then the vice versa, AMD is like, no, no, no, you must invest in us. So please buy our chips. Like that's the discount and the premium if you think about it.

Like, in Viti, you get the premium because it's like, it's a better chip, higher gross margin. They're like, you're getting so much of our money. You might as well just be an investor. Sure. And then on AMD side, it's like, dude, you got to, we don't want to, we don't want this. So like, give us something in return. Can you take me through.

Yeah, can you take me through kind of the view on AMD? generally over the past year. I know that semi-analysis was pretty crucial. George Hatz was talking about some bugs that were in the actual, like, just trying to run large models on AMD chips was not going well. Your team was pretty integral in that. It seems like they're moving pretty aggressively

to try and catch up. Is that gated by money? Like, what's the recent history of AMD in terms of like getting back in the game? materially. So I do think they're much more competitive than they have been a long time. Our team's definitely been working. Watch for some stuff from semi-analysis soon.

TM, I can't say anything more. Go subscribe. Yeah, but we're definitely continue to do some work in the space. I think, look, on the smaller models, it just on the imprint side, it seems like there's not a lot of differentiation, but on the bigger, extremely large world size, there is. So GB 200 still law of the land, but the Helios 450 rack, which is going to be this next generation, we're a lot more excited about. Most is because they get the ginormous discount of the equity. It's just kind of an insane thing what they've done, man.

Like it's such a big, it's such a big amount of the equity possibly on those penny warrants. Like, I mean, it's kind of crazy. It's like, hey, you know, you buy $40 billion dollars a product, you have $20 billion investment for free. Like it's kind of this crazy like buy one get one deal. So I mean, I think that that's, I think they have a chance. And the other, the other thing that was interesting is it feels like OpenAI can have various partners by AMD, by AMD chips, but then Open AI gets to, like, get to count that towards purchases themselves. In the Wall Street Journal article, they made it look like if, exercising the warrants. Oracle buys a bunch of AMD chips for a data center that Open AI gets like leasing on top of.

Open A, I guess, exercise the warrants. And those count towards AMD purchases, basically, even if it's not on Open AIs balance sheet. Yeah, pretty much, I think the way to think about it is it's an open AI infrastructure that everyone who is in the open AI sphere, it counts. And they're just trying to get the most money, the most power, the most pole into it so that essentially, you know, they're kind of creating gravity. Everything comes to them.

Honestly, those are really good analogy. In 2020, Nvidia bought like 5X more capacity than everyone else at TSM. And so there was no room for anyone to compete. Kind of the same thing. They're taking all the oxygen out of the room for anyone else that isn't named open AI. What do you think about this? I feel like I heard this on transistor radio recently that GPT5 is still potentially running kind of like GPT4 class model under the hood,

doing a bunch of test time inference on top of it to get you a better reasoning model. But like the core architecture actually hasn't shifted that much. we're not, so does that make it easier to port that model to AMD? Like, what is the actual barrier? We've heard about the Kuda Motte, but is it something where, like, you can underwrite a hundred million dollars of new kernel writing to run on AMD, even though it's a huge hassle, but it's because you're still amortizing that original training run that you did on invidia to inference it on AMD going forward with this new deal.

Is there something where the pre-train is stabilizing to the point where porting to a new architecture is more justifiable? I think that that feels like a stretch, honestly. I wouldn't know one-to-one on this one. Like, you know, if this was a world with no reasoning, then I would say yes, definitely, yes. But I think reasoning really does change the game and how you orchestrate these larger and larger contact size windows and then multi nodes because that's a really hard game too. It's like multi node reasoning or multi node inference is very, very challenging. And so that's,

I don't think you get a perfect one to one, but like let's also be clear. EMD is caught up quite a bit in the last year. Like it's a big difference. And like that's, I think it's enough to maybe take a bet. And like you got to also think about the bigger context here. You know, we're talking like what, $20 billion of revenue, mostly 2027 story. It's kind of peanuts compared to the numbers that we're actually talking about from everyone else. They're still fourth place. Let's be clear. This is commitment, and I think you can see maybe a little bit momentum and inertia,

but they're still in fourth place. Fourth place with Nvidia, TPU, and Traneum above them? Yeah, even training. Even Traneum is above them. Interesting. How are people thinking about actually valuing Open AI at this point? It feels like you have all these, like, circular. I was trying to build a DCF for OpenAI to underwrite, you know, investment.

500 billion. It's like, okay, well, now I own parts of AMD, so I need to build a full DCF of that, but EMD is linked to OpenAI. And I have all these like circular transactions. Are investors like grappling with this or is it all just like vibe based investing in what you've seen? I think it's a little bit of vibe based investing. I think the real play here is Tam is big. It's really, really big and it's going to be a lot bigger. I think the other thing that's really interesting is some of the agentic purchasing can really unlock very, very, very large parts of the economy that previously you could argue they had nothing in. Right.

If you're talking about like, you know, the, the partners they had available today, for example, booking.com, trip advisor, you know, we can be talking about, you know, and this is like some 2021 math, right, but like 1% of all travel. Yeah. One percent of all groceries, one percent of everything. And you're like, that's a big number. That's a really big number. Yeah.

And so, and, you know, that's, that's going to. be rev. So I think that that's the, that's literally the plan. I mean, they're trying to become the super app. And that means that they're going to be integrated with everything. And you saw on the partnerships they had, they try to integrate as much as possible with every, every player of the stack. And so I think this agentic purchase push is going to, you know, if we start to see revenue from it soon, which I think they're, they're definitely shooting for, we'll kind of open up the TAM story and start to monetize the free users. Because there's really only like 100 million paid users. It's not that much, but there's hundreds of millions.

of free users. And we're talking about a personalized assistant who could plan for you. You can do something crazy as like, hey, I need a, you know, I thought I lost my travel bag or something. So I was like, hey, I need a small dock kit for on the go for everything. Could you just like, you know, make a travel size and order it and get it to my house tomorrow? That seems very, like, it feels like science fiction, but that is very much in, in like the next 12 months. And so, hey, one to three percent of that transaction. That's a lot of money. And I think that that's the real way for it. coming so integral into everything that everyone has the best of stake in you. Yep.

So what, uh, so the, the AMD order and the fullness of time is around six gigawatts. Where do you expect that energy to come from? Do you expect Sam to start doing crazy deals like this on the energy side? He's already has Oaklo, which is just, uh, you know, up. He's not chairman anymore. You not, he had to step down. Yeah, but, uh, I, I knew he wasn't direct. I mean, I'm assuming he's a.

major shareholder still. So that's kind of one angle. But where else, where's the power going to come from? Dude, that's a trillion-dollar question, I feel like. Definitely there's a lot of ways to...

But it's an important one, right? If you're trying to underwrite and say, this is real, at least for AMD, it's like, okay, well, how real can it be if there's, you know...

Dude, it's... If we can't plug them in, you know? There's a lot of ways. There's a lot of ways. Okay. So let's first talk about like, like the grid is actually not built for 100% production. So there's a lot of slack in the grid itself because it's actually built for the highest day and the lowest day. It's built to like have a 99% margin rate, you know, confidence interval on the absolute high and the absolute low. So the peak of the power. And so gas or not gas, but generation throughout an average day is at a much lower utilization than 100%. So I think the real reason and something you're going to start to see is that people are going to, like, essentially the grid is going to kind of start to become a lot more fragmented. And there's going to be a lot of behind the meter power generation that happens at the data center. And so in that case, what you do is you'd sip from the grid, meaning that you can use the grid when the grid is not totally utilized when it isn't. You're doing gas gen on site. That's probably the thing that is most, I mean, it's going to be huge. It's going to be huge. Like natural gas, you know, energy consumption is just going to go through the grid. So that's going to be like the big driver, I think, to get these data centers online. I think it's going to take a lot of time. And also we're seeing like grids breaking right now. Like grids are just like grids are not keeping up.

And that's kind of been, I think it's going to be a big story in 2026. But I also think that that's where we're going to see international purchases too, just because like we're running out of power in the United States. I mean, I think what's also interesting is like even though we say we're running out of power, when you have this big demand response, supply comes out of the woodwork. So we're starting to see stuff like gas gen, gas turbines, like all these different like little clever pockets of energy are coming up to then fulfill the need. I expect that to continue. Effectively, if you have enough demand, we'll, you know, supply will find a way.

Yeah. Yeah, that feels like the next wave here is we're going to see a $100 million, $100 billion deal for a new Hoover dam and more nuclear actual build out. There was some news about this with some of the hyperscalers trying to recommit. nuclear power plants, but it just feels like it's so slow. It's not on the order of like what TSM is fabbing next quarter. So we kind of lost track of it. But it does feel like that that's going to be the next chapter. And maybe it'll be a little bit longer lead time, but you got to start thinking about it now. Where do you expect the leverage to come from if that's the next leg of the journey? Is it net new private credit fund formation? Is it is it just banks getting more

more active, like where, where's the capital going to come from? Okay, so one, let's not forget, there's positive free cash flow from all the big guys. That annually is something like, you know, I actually have a spreadsheet, maybe even open right now, talking about the total firepower. We're talking quite a bit of capital is available to do this, like a surprising amount. I want to say on an annual basis, something like 250, maybe even, yeah, 200 billion. But the thing that's also really interesting is none of the hypers are levered at all.

There's a really good paper from double line talking about like, would you rather loan to the United States government or would you rather loan to Microsoft? So the real like, you know, crazy town is if you start loaning to Microsoft instead the United States government because Microsoft has net cash. Microsoft also, you know, has become more credit worthy over time versus, I would argue, the U.S. government has become less creditworthy. And also what's really crazy is that Microsoft has. you know, five-bips premium to the United States Treasury. So you're effectively, you know,

their rates are risk-free. And so what's possible, I think, in terms of like, now I think the real issue is, like, how much liquidity could the actual credit market handle? I don't know if they can handle, like, $300 billion. Like, that's a shits ton of money. But, like, we're talking, you know, there's things that can definitely come out of those works. Like, private credit's going to be part of it just because they're sitting on, like, an ungodly amount of capital and they have to deploy it. I definitely think the hyperscalers for me are the one that are most interesting. Like, we're talking about, I mean, dude, that's crazy. Just like, like, it's funny you say, yeah. It's funny you say 300 billion because I'm thinking, I was just doing the math on

$250 billion in free cash flow. If that's used to service 5% coupon payments, that's $5 trillion in notional debt, like value. If you're just saying, like what, like, we want to know where the, where the systemic, where is the, where is the, systemic risk going to come from? I don't know. When we all run out together, that's the, that's the problem. It's like what happens is like it's just think of it as like one long debt fueled binge, right? But the thing is, you're looking at the debt fueled binge and I can tell you confidently today, there's not really much debt to go around at the big guys. So, you know, I think I think we could right now today, it would get. And also, I don't think everyone's going to get

to like three times leverage. That's just insane. I don't think anyone wants to do that. But I definitely think there's a play there's a way to get to eight uh 800 billion dollars of credit like i mean it's be insane but that's one and a half turns from meta microsoft to amazon and google and the two that i think are most interesting is uh the founder led ones like zuck and sergey they control the companies they have voting shares they can do whatever the fuck they want so if they if they woke up tomorrow and said get me you know get me a turn of ebidah on this bad boy you They could get it. Now, that'd be really crazy because, you know, they make a crap ton of money. I actually have the number right now. So right now, I think. Meta's cash on hand at the end of last year was around $77 billion.

As of the end of June, it was down to $47 billion and just will continue to drop throughout the year. So they already did that. I think it was like a $30 billion. They're not even close. They're not even close, man. I mean, so okay, I have the numbers right now. Net debt is 17 billion net debt for Google is negative 56. I mean, they have more cash than debt. Oracle is 94 billion, which is a crap ton. Like, you know, they're pretty much, they're not tapped out, but they really, pretty much

even though it has to go up for them to raise more. Meta is at 2.4 billion in debt. And then Amazon's 58 billion in debt. So like meta, meta and Google specifically, which are ironically the ones who are founder-led, they have so much fucking, they have so much. much free cash, or like they have so much a cash they could raise if they want to. They both have, they both have like the gush cash and they're both founder led. Like that to me is, you know, that's the next leg, man. And also, yeah, but like, sorry, who doesn't want to lose? Yeah.

Why are you not putting Nvidia in that camp? Founder led. They have 50 billion in cash. They, you know, are not levered yet. Like, they could also lever up and start investing more aggressively. Well, they're doing, They're enjoying some customer, you know, demand guarantees, which are, which are, yeah, what's the story we're telling around Nvidia? I think, I think Nvidia is focused on a different level of stack, right? Because Nvidia is like, hey, we're an infrastructure provider and, you know, we're having, like, all these long lead time things need so much capital and time to get there. The thing that Nvidia wants to backstop, in my opinion, is the NeoCloud. And so you're already starting to see that with like some of the, the neocloud purchases that are, or like the neocloud backstopping that happens at like Lambda or even core weave to a certain

extent. What happens is they buy essentially flex capacity for research GPUs for Nvidia so they can get better at programming like gem essentially. But I think the thing, yeah, I think Nvidia is much more focused on their part of the infrastructure ecosystem to be a backstop instead of purchasing GPU hours, right? They're not in the market to, you know, they're a seller. And so, you know, if they woke up one day and said, hey, we're going to just start buying this stuff en masse to make a model.

You'd be like, what the fuck's going on? I just wonder if the NVIDIA story, like, if they get in on this like debt boom, it instantiates itself as like they lever up and then and then they basically have instead of $50 billion to throw around. They have like $200 billion to throw around. And then that goes into equity purchases of companies that are doing, that are purchasing GPUs. And it sounds really circular, but like they are just another vehicle. for credit to absorb like credit interest because they're such a big company.

Yeah, I do think that's possible, but I think I just don't think, I mean, you see that in some of the smaller investments, but I think they're really focused on the NeoClaz and the data center side, like the infrastructure around their ecosystem. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Do you think, do you think Satya might be feeling like he went a little risk off too early? Yeah, I think so. And this guy over here is listening to Transistor Radio. Yeah, so Microsoft's back.

I think they're, I think they're going to step back into the market in a big way. Like, especially on the MOU after OpenAI and also MAI, they're starting to be very focused on. Like, I expect them to be back in the marketplace now effectively. But I still, you know, so I think what happened is this giant buildout in 23 where they said yes to every single leasing opportunity possible. And then they, like, there was a top down pause. And now they're starting to pick up the pieces, be like, no, no, no, actually now by pausing, we have to pick up. back up. So I think Sotia definitely feels like, I don't know, he was definitely in first place for a long time and would have, if he just kept pushing, I think you would have kept in first

place. And now you have like, you know, Oracle popping in and being like, yeah, like, I'll essentially steal all your business if you let me, we'll come in at a lower, lower price. Like, I'm just going to lever my entire balance sheet for it. But we're talking about like the four-year guide is $100 billion, man. Like, that's insane. So that $100 billion, arguably should have been all Microsoft's. And that, yeah. That's, you know, that's up to them. And they will tell you in public meetings that, like, you know, it's lower ROI for them. And sure, that's the case.

But I think Microsoft is definitely being conservative and they have the biggest balance sheet. So they're, I kind of don't expect them to be the first player. I think of it as like kind of like, what is it called, like OPEC. You need a slippery person to essentially defect. And the slippery defectors is meta, Google, in my opinion. Those are the two biggest. And so when they start to really get into the game, all of a sudden, they're going to be like, whoa, this is attacking my business model, and I'm losing market share. And that's when

that's when the other guys come back in a big way. Yeah. Do you think SOAR is going to move any of these like GPU buildout plans? Like Sam was getting kind of mocked for saying like, oh, we're going to have to pick between. I was, to be clear, I was the one saying. I said, I just thought it was, I mean, I thought the lot, the timing of going out and saying, yeah, there's a very real possibility in the future that we'll have to choose between curing cancer, and free education for everyone. And then a week later, we launch, you know, the most... It feels like the most intensive product ever.

Yeah. But, I mean, we got some news on API pricing. It sounds like it's 32 cents a generation. Like, it feels like it might not be moving the needle as much on the, on the inference side. Or actually, like, is Sora going to make them GPU poor? I don't know if you have a view on that. It's 30... Sorry, sorry, it's 32 cents per inference.

What's the time frame on that? I think that's an... It's per second, per second. Okay, so it's almost three bucks for a, for a 10 second clip. Okay, so that's actually like on par with V-O-3, which is, that's pretty expensive. That's pretty expensive. And they give you, what, 10 credits a day or something? So if there's hardcore users out there, they're generating $30 a day.

What is that, $1,000 a month? Like, it adds up if you get a million DAUs on there. Like, that's a lot. Yeah, I think they're, they probably have more, they have the potential to do much more than a million d a use i mean they're they're they're definitely compute rich man the the pulse thing you guys have you guys have you guys been doing pulse at all yeah they generate those images for you and you're like oh a little personalized slop feed for me like that feels great um i know on on launch day we were reacting to it and john john was like john was very impressed for me it was

like three out of the five images that i looked at were like great and then like two out of the five i'm like you could have just not generated this one this is just absolutely garbage you know But yeah, what do you think about, what do you think? We had a question in the chat from Bobby. He says, asking about like, what do you think about public sentiment risk? It feels like I've never seen more hatred of AI from non-tech folks than in the last week or so. And you're seeing data centers just getting kind of like blocked. that feels like it potentially, you know, it's certainly going to be a roadblock at a bunch of

different stages of this buildout. Yeah, I think that that definitely is a newer roadblock that is getting more real because let's be real up until now no one cared. It's like such a small part of the big picture. But I still think the reason why I think we're going to go bravely into the future is everyone else seems to be pretty on board. And I think the one that really helps is the Trump administration, is like super duper on board. They're like, hey, whatever, we're going to tear off the shit out of everyone.

But we're going to completely make up for the weakness in personal consumption by massively investing. And it's like, we're going to get the biggest check from every company in the world, for every nation in the world. And the only thing anyone wants to spend anything on right now is GPUs. And so they're like, eff it. We're building more GPUs. And so you're seeing all these huge announcements. And I think that that's the, you know, that's kind of the thing that will kind of push it back. I mean, if Trump is being like, dude, from the government itself, I'm blessing you to buy more GPUs.

That's kind of, I think, the thing that really holds it together and makes it possibly much crazier from here. The public backlash thing, I think that it really comes back to you have to have that feedback loop work all the way to the right decision maker, not just some random person. Like, yeah, I'm seeing that read it on the news too. But like, Mark Zuckerberg or Satya has to wake up and it be like, what am I doing? Right. Right now, everyone in their camp, all the closest advisors and trusted people are being like, spend more. Spend more. The government, you know, Trump is telling you.

Yeah, I mean, the dinner, the dinner, everybody wanted to say the biggest number, right? It was even, even Zuck threw out a probably bigger number than he meant to because he heard someone. It seemed like he just heard someone else say a big number and he didn't want to say a smaller number. Oh, how much am I good for? How much I go? He's like, he's like on his phone right now. I was like, yeah. number.

Okay. I have a completely. One more question. How long do you think XAI can maintain this level of investment, you know, basically like this level of investment without being able to back it up with real revenue growth? Because it seems like this last financing, they were having to tell like the journal or some other publication, like we're not having any trouble fundraising, which you. usually means like you're having not the easiest time if people are kind of poking around. I mean, okay, so the same way I'm not going to bet against Sam Altman's ability to raise, I'm definitely not going to bet against Elon Musk's ability to raise. Like Sam Altman is like

the newest kid in the block, but if there's someone that like you should never essentially short ever in history time, it's Elon Musk. And the other thing I think that's like much more important with that is Elon's back in the seat. He's the CEO of Tesla and he like actually has the compensation. So he's like, fuck it all right. I'm actually, I'm very locked in. And, you know, if we're talking about Mag 7, you know, there's a lot of market cap. Tesla. Tesla. Oh, yeah. So things are really badly. That's what I'm saying that the, the, yeah, it just feels like I wouldn't be shocked if a year from now XAI was a part of was merged in with Tesla. 100%. 100%. And that, you know, and that would actually be a creed Tesla stock would pump on that,

even though because people would be able to show it. Yeah. And so that's going to, but I say I would would crush because then they're, then they, they're all of a sudden attached to one of the largest financial entities in the entire world. Totally. Like that's, you know,

we're talking trillion trillion dollar market cap, right? Like that's real fucking, like you can take that and turn it around. You can loan it out and you can move big checks. Yeah. It's very, very non-trivial for them to raise 10, $20 billion off. Yeah.

What, what I was getting at was basically this last financing where they're going, and raising capital at $200 billion, and those investors have just been getting pitched anthropic at like 170 with a crazy revenue ramp and a bunch of, you know, real, real, you know, traction and code gen. The investors are looking around being like, okay, like, I'll, I'm going to, I'll give you the cash, but like, I don't know the next time around if there's going to be the same level of appetite. There's some really big pockets that back, Elon. I wouldn't. bet against the Elon sphere because you have to remember he made a lot of billionaires out of it.

Like, you know, for example, Larry Allison is always on the phone. I don't know if you knew that. Like he's, he, you know, he was good for a lot of X, uh, for X when they took down Twitter. And so you can see a lot of big, uh, people come out of the woodworks and like Larry's flush now. Yep. You know, he's got a lot of equity to spend. Okay. Like, you know, these people can come out of the woodwork. So I definitely, I had a, I had a theory, a theory that, that we were kicking around earlier that I could see it because Larry's a big investor in the original X takeover, right? There's this iconic text exchange where Elon and Larry are talking.

He's like, I'm good for a billion. He's like, Elon's like, okay, you might want to do two. He's like, yeah, whatever you recommend. And so I could see a world where X, the social platform, does not go to Tesla and get spun into the basically paramount, this whole media conglomerate, right? because I just don't, you know, especially with XAI a part of Tesla, it's not like Tesla is sitting there and being like, we need to be able to pump timeline posts instantly into every Tesla in America. It just stops being quite as strategic, maybe.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I don't disagree with that take. That's a pretty good take. But I just think that, like, you know, Elon will find a way. Whatever way that it needs to happen, if that's with Oracle, if that's with Tesla, like Elon will find a way. I believe. leave. Is there significant asset value in just Colossus 2? Like, it is the biggest supercomputer. It's this massive data center. It seems like it was very hard to build.

It seems like all the hyperscalers would love to have it. Sam would love to have it. If you just ran an auction for it, do you have an idea of like what the value of Colossus 2 would be if there was like breakup value there? You know, at today's value, I mean, I would say it's probably. probably like tens of billions.

Maybe not tens. I mean, let me, I would say tens. Actually, yeah, tens. Tense. That's not, because it's, uh, are we including costs too? Yes. Okay. Then yes.

Yeah. Yeah. I'm just thinking like, like the XAI assets, like sure the business isn't necessarily like printing profit with some massive consumer product market fit. Someone would be really stoked. But someone would be stoked and there's some value. It's interesting. If you think about whatever MBS is, just that deal with Microsoft, literally scale that up.

And that's probably what you would buy on a TCO basis for clauses. Like, there's demand. So, okay. Okay. One last question. You got to go. Okay. Hairbrained.

Hairbrained theory. I want your feedback on this hot take. There's a lot of discussion over the value of TSM in Taiwan risk. But we now have the golden visa. $2 million to bring someone to America. For $100 billion, you could bring 50,000 people. Is there some world where we get into like AI talent wars, but for process knowledge around semiconductor manufacturing?

And we see some American entity start poaching TSM employees in mass to get them to America? That's definitely possible. I just don't feel like it's probable. people have been saying there's a supply shortage yet like TSM has a lot of like has almost a captain of audience dude like if you think about it TSM's like you know I mean it'd be like working for the government almost but like even more prestigious and killing the shit out of everything like TSM is like the company of Taiwan sure dude honestly TSMC engineers are like really underpaid as is like

don't tell don't tell them right but like um on a on a on a dollar basis compared to even American peers and a lot of people like China for example uh poaches very heavily so So I think there's definitely a chance, but I feel like you have to take the entire know-all. Like it's not just the tool, it's the tool, the process, everyone. You'd have to take the whole fad. But yeah, I think that'll be, I think it would be sick, dude. I think Intel could do it, right? Intel should do it.

Yeah, Intel should do it because they have the golden visa. They have the backstop from Trump. They have all the investors coming in. They'll probably have an open AI deal soon, who knows. And then they have all the money and they can just bring people over. Anyway, we won't take any more of your time. Thank you so much for hopping on the show. Super fun, Doug.

Always a great to see you. We'll talk you soon. We'll talk you soon. Bye. Let me tell you about turbo puffer. Search every byte. Serverless vector and full-point search. From first principles on object storage, fast, 10X cheaper and extremely scalable.

You also heard Doug talking about agentic commerce. It's more important than ever to get your brand mentioned on chat. GPT. Go to profound reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover new products and brands. Our horse post popped off. We took our first day off on Friday, but we did give you some facts. about our horse in the studio, which you can see behind Jordy Hayes over there. And we got a wonderful reply from Eric, who's working on soil tech.

He says, the horse as a symbol of deep, horse has a symbol is deep lindy, power, camaraderie, and frontiering forward motion. As a Kentucky, as a Kentuckian, I can only agree, more horse content and shares three beautiful images of horse statues throughout the ages. Predably underrated animal. In other news, Dan McCormick, Packing McCormick's brother, has launched his creatine gummy brand in Target, that's Create, a wild step in this journey that in many ways started with him posting on X. Three years ago, he was embarrassed to be starting a creatine

company. He'd shy away hedge and downplay when asked about it in real life on X, surrounded by a bunch of like-minded freaks. I could post openly about my excitement and the business's progress. I've shared a lot less over the last two years, but my bullishness. Actually, the timing on Create. Dan's perfect timing is insane. It was, it felt like a supplement that was already had almost perfect saturation. Totally. Right? I think anybody that I knew

that was like working out multiple days a week was already using creatine. But never doubt American demand for supplements in gummy format. And never doubt it again. Never doubt,

Elon. Never doubt an Irishman. Never doubt demand for gummies. Oh, this is fun. Rampman acquisition today. They bought Jolt AI to help their engineers build faster. Jolt is a world-class team

of engineers who have spent years solving some of the hardest problems in developer productivity. Today, Ramp is welcoming them to the team. They're scaling the AI platform and they're reimagining how software and finance get built. From a talent perspective, says Kareem Atia from Ramp. Ramp's engineering team is made up of founders, math Olympiads and AI researchers. Karim's goal is to hire elite technical talent and then get out of their way. For his part, Joltz Specter, the founder, admitted in an interview that he didn't expect to get acquired by a company like Ramp,

but that he's extremely happy. It's where his team landed. The trio will be working on a number of things, including Ramp's internal engineering platform. So congrats to... Fantastic. Hit that gong, John. First hit of the week.

It's good to be back. Technium says you can now invest in NVIDIA, Intel, AMD, Arm, OpenAI, Mestral, core weave, nebius, and more with just one ticker. Invidia. Of course. So, Hamparique, it says word. Is he continuing?

He's posting again. Is he continuing to run? We also got some gong analysis. This is from Ethan Frost on September 30th. He said, I analyzed every gong hit on TBPN. Here's what I found. Tyler, can you take us through this post of what the breakdown was? And do you think this was manually tagged or was there AI involved?

It's a pretty remarkable breakdown of all the different. all the different gong hits, how much they raised, and then how loud the gong hit was. But explain this post to us. Yes. I think the main thesis was like, are gong hits onto PN? Are they louder as funding increases? Yes. You can see the correlation is like slightly there.

I think it's a bit hard because of like sometimes the microphone is just a little bit further away. Sure. So it wasn't like, you know, a crazy kind of correlation. But yeah, he basically just indexed all. of the gong hits that we've basically ever done. Yes. And then done a ton of data.

So like Series A, Series B, he breaks it all down. He also breaks down between you guys. Okay. So there's some good facts here. Who's louder on the gong? Me or Jordy? Let's look. Definitely, Jordy.

Definitely, for that. For sure. Okay. Definitely me. Yeah, John is standing more often than Jordy when he's hitting the gong. But Jordy throws. The gongs. Do I, but I throw the gong.

mallets. Yeah, Jordie throws the mallet a lot more. Now I've got a clean shot. I got to be... I really rip it. These are so funny. Total gongs I heard by day of the week. Why are there so many on Saturday and Sunday?

We don't record on Saturday or Sunday. I was very confused by this. Oh, maybe the weekly recap. Maybe. Maybe. But I like that. Anyways, fantastic analysis. Yes.

And... The toss. Let's see the toss hit. that's a funny one underutilized anyway thank you for your for your service Ethan

legend Bucco Capital says I put 10% of my portfolio into reshoring semis and it just wasn't even close to a nut easiest money of our lifetime listen to the president should have brought a shovel not a teaspoon

That's true yeah very interesting to see where the intel story goes I wonder if there will be an opening ideal for CPS or so Justine Moore was sharing that Taylor Swift is using AI-generated videos to promote her new album. Yeah. I was surprised to see that.

Biggest artists in the world. Usually there's like a ton of pushback when big artists. Yeah, it feels like she would get, she's a prime cancellation target. I haven't followed it too closely. But Patrick McKenzie says, I think the economic logic of this is inevitable and that you'll need video to get your N plus one marketing post through the noise on social media, even as Taylor Swift. And your choices are either 100K shoot per post or a relatively junior employee with some taste. Yeah. And yeah, it's a good take.

Yeah. There is this development of like, will everything be instantiated in every possible format? So if you have a startup launch video or announcement, you'll write a pithy tweet and then you'll write a blog post and you'll also drop a podcast and then you'll also drop a vibe reel and a video and a two-hour. documentary and they will all be instantiated from just a short fact sheet that then goes out. And it begs the question of like where will the where will the instantiation live? Will I as the consumer of content say I want to consume the these sources in video format? That's kind of the notebook LM model is like I am saying I want to consume the internet in a podcast format with chat GPT.

you're kind of like, no matter what question you ask, no matter what the sources are, it comes to you as a, as a, you know, neatly organized research report that's a couple thousand words with bullet points. And it's not this, it's that every time. But then there's the other side, which is on the, lives on the creator side, which says, I should instantiate my idea, my concept. I take as a TikTok reel, as a YouTube video, as a podcast, as a video. And I do that on my side. And I'm wondering where it lives long term. Like, because there is a world where you can go to where Taylor Swift doesn't need to generate the AI generated video because I, as the Taylor Swift fan, can go to Sora. And it knows that I'm a fan of Taylor Swift. And it automatically generates it for me based on just her text post. Yeah, or she could just share the prompt in text and the notes app. And then everybody could just imagine it. Exactly.

I don't know. It'll be somewhere in between. Ethan Frost is in the chat. Let's go. Let's go. Hey, what's up, Ethan? Thanks so much. Great to see you.

Thank you for analyzing the gunk. Yes. What else? Linear. Linear's purpose-built tool for planning and building products. Meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects, and product roadmaps. I would go out on a limb and say everything that Open AI launched today was almost certainly planned and linear. For sure.

For sure. Oh, this is a fun one. So Kareem Jetta says, introducing gas-like gas, garage, a box where I put my phones and feed them AI-generated audio nonsense to make them think I want to buy stuff. Practical AI for the people, gaslight garage, and Snowy, or S-N-W-Y, says, I tried this once after getting into an argument with my parents about whether your phone listens or not. Where do you stand on this, Jordy? Do you think your phone is listening to you? And such a tough one, because everybody has like an example or two.

Yep. but if you think about how many ads you get and then I saw an ad for it. How many different things you see how many ads you get over a multi-year period. How many products you talk about over a multi-year period. And then at some point or another, they're going to watch it. They're going to watch it. They're going to like perfect alignment between the two.

Yep. And then also you have to factor in people that search for something once and then, you know, on a certain network and then forgot about. it or someone else in a household search for something and then somebody else in the household gets served right there's a lot of different ways to explain away the the listening yeah aspect but i yeah i i noticed that some of the spookiest uh you know ads that i would ever see would be it would come from a conversation that i had with a person in real life where like yeah the phones could have been listening but more likely and then i saw an ad this really tell me oh you got to

test out these headphones and i see an ad for those exact headphones the next day. And I'm like, that's weird. I just heard about that and now I'm seeing it. How did that happen? I know I didn't search for it. I know I didn't send any data signal to my phone or my apps. But then I realized that it's like, well, if they just ordered those headphones and that data of them shopping and them going through that checkout flow is encoded in their Instagram profile. And then it knows that we hung out because we're friends on the network and we like each other's post and we were texting with each other on the app and stuff. And then it can say, well, Jordy just like these headphones, John and Jordy were just hanging

out, showed John the, like they might be similar consumers. I feel like that can be like kind of spooky, but not, but very like a clear flow that would come from the data. But anyway, Snowy said got two iPhone 6es, both wiped and connected to two different Wi-Fi networks with independent VPNs, said keywords to one and different ones to another, never an earshot of each other with multiple apps, Insta, Facebook, Twitter, open with their accounts and basic usage. And the ads were never what I said. They were basically always location-based slash pretty basic things.

My running theory is that whoever thinks their phone is listening is just predictable enough that it knows not because it heard them. I think that's probably right. Plus, there's this massive incentive that if the phones were listening and targeting, there would be a huge incentive to become a whistleblower. Like, there's been a whole tour of folks who have left meta, because, become influencers. You can go get a book deal. You can get a book deal. Exactly.

And you can become famous. You can get a head talk. Exactly. You can get a government job. Probably. How much somebody met at wanting to government? Do you get paid to testify? Maybe they should do that.

Appearance fee for testimony on Capitol Hill. Let's make it happen. Anyway, numeral. Sales tax on autopilot. Spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance. Someone in the chat is like, I was just thinking about numeral. How did they know? He's speaking to me directly. Well, you and Tyler should debate this one.

Mr. B. said, when AI videos are just as good as normal videos, I wonder what that will do to YouTube and how it will impact millions of creators making content for a living scary times. And Justine Morehead. It's kind of crazy that biggest YouTuber comes out and comes out and just scares everybody. because I think if you dig into this at all, it's pretty easy to show how AI presents an incredible opportunity for existing creators. Like, yes, some amount of attention will go to content.

We'll go to net new content creators that are just using the tools better or more focused. But nowhere in here does it say that if you're making a living from content today, you can't use AI to make significantly more content, significantly better content. It's much more of an opportunity than a threat in its current form. Yeah, I also think it's funny coming from Mr. Bees because it's just like, this is like slop on slap hate. Like Mr. Bees is like, I would not want my kids to be watching Mr. Bees videos. If you watch them, it's just like the cuts are like every like one and a half seconds. It's like pretty insane already.

So, like, I think Mr. B style content is much more. If you remember, he wasn't, he tried to create a tool that used AI to make thumbnails, and he eventually rolled that feature back because it was taking away potential revenue from thumbnail artists. Yeah. Yeah, so, I mean, I would say that his style of content is much more susceptible, I guess, to, to like being taken. See, I totally, I totally disagree because I think part of the reason, like, I can see what you're saying in the sense that like you can argue like this is slop. I don't want people to, I wouldn't want my kids to watch it at the same time. It's very clearly the opposite.

It's the opposite of slop in that it's like massive, massive productions, real humans. Did you see the reaction? Real money on the line. Don't worry, Jimmy. Like people want to know that you made a hundred people stay in that circle for a month. Exactly. It's like so much more entertaining. If you just took Mr. Beast style content and made it using AI, it would not be nearly as entertaining, right?

Yeah, people want the, people want the suffering. It's like why, or you could just watch two robots play chess, right? Yeah. Like, okay, you can say that it has this big budget, but like, I don't think, you can't say that Mr. Beast is like, oh, it's like this at tour cinematic content. Like, it's still

like, there's like, there's like, okay, like they have real people, but above that, it's just like, this is like very stimulating, like, fast-paced content. Yeah, but a big part of it is the human suffering element. AI, you know, wait until AI can actually suffer like a human. Yeah, I mean, you could, I'm trying to think of the most recent example, but there is something about just like the fact-checking chain of like if you're watching someone do, like, I bet when the X-Games happens or when Red Bull

does their next stunt, like that will get more viral views than the Stephen Hawking novelty X-Games video. Just because there's something that we know that the fact that the X-Games is a real organization that they own, that they're not posting AI-generated content, and they've made

that commitment to only show videos or Red Bulls only showing videos of humans doing wings suiting through a helicopter off of a cliff or whatever. And so there's something that just hits like more emotionally, like it's more emotionally resonant. And then there's also all of these like downstream like behind the scenes.

Like the Mr. Beast, like are the videos fake has been a long time debated. He's kind of one beat those allegations every time. But like the incentive to like kind of see like a whistleblower on someone who's like faking their content will be like at an all time high. But I would imagine that the institutions that still make people suffer, will do quite well. But I don't know. I mean, for,

for, I think it'll definitely, like, widen the gap. Like, if you're, if you're, if you're,

if you're making content that is at all substitutable with slop, like, you're done. But if you're making content that cannot be challenged whatsoever and is so,

like, uniquely human. Uh, but yeah, where, where does mystery? Yeah, a good example, a good example is like,

are, is Andrew Heberman threatened by someone else coming out and creating an AI-based persona that tries to do the same thing that he does, right? In terms of like creating long-form content around various health protocols and health topics. And I think that even if you could put the level of craft in that the Huberman lab team does,

do you want to be getting health advice from an imaginary robot, right? Or is it, or do you want health advice from Andrew Huberman because he's 50 and he's absolutely jacked. He's living his best life, right? It's like who, you know, where the content is coming from matters a lot. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, yeah, the provenance matters.

People care about other humans. They're anti-clanker at their core in many ways. Well, let me tell you about fin.com. The number one AI agent for customer service. Number one in performance benchmarks, number one in competitive bakeoffs, number one ranking on G2. in other reshoring. We're not just reshoring chips.

We're also reshoring Sharpies. Apparently Sharpie found a way to make pens more cheaply by manufacturing them in the United States. Newell Brands Move production. I need one of these. They need to make the red, white, and blue Sharpie pack immediately. I need these. This is actually mentioned in the Wall Street Journal article.

Apparently, where is it? Donald Trump uses a Sharpie all the time or something like that. For signatures. right? Yeah, where is it? Pen barrels whirl along automated assembly lines that rapidly fill them with ink. At least half a billion Sharpie markers are churned out here every year. Each one made of six parts. Only the felt tip is imported from Japan. It didn't used to be this way back in 2018. Many Sharpies were made abroad. That's when Chris Peterson, who is the

CFO of Sharpie maker, Newell Brands, challenges team to answer the question. How could they keep Newell from becoming obsolete compared with factories in Asia? I felt like we had an opportunity to dramatically improve our U.S. manufacturing. He's now the CEO. And he makes all 93 colors of Sharpie at a 37-year-old factory. And they did it without reducing employee count and without raising prices. But to get to this place, it took close to $2 billion in investments across the company. And of course, this is a $2 billion market cap company.

Okay. It's like book value to market cap is one to one. apparently if they did all this company has so i want to get the CEO on the show at some point president trump uses a custom sharpie he slapped high tariffs on many imports with the goal of prompting more companies to do what newell has done and bring manufacturing back to the u.s but filippo falarini an analyst at city said few companies in the sector have the resources to replicate newel's move well um i think we're ready for our next guest ready Let's bring in

Celine from Loyal But first, let me tell you about Adio Customer Relationship Magic. Adio is the AI Native CRM that builds scales and grows your company the next level and get started for free. Let me also tell you about public investing for those to take it seriously. They got multi-asset investing, industry-leading yields.

There you are. They're trusted by millions. Yeah, we're hoping to get a real horse in the studio at some point. I can help with that. Yes? I have three. No way. You actually have horses?

Yeah, yeah, I'm a crazy horse girl. Where? Yes. Petaluma. Petaluma. Yeah. Do you live there? No.

Okay. It's SF. Cool. But I do the anti-commute. Okay. Yeah. What is that? Like you drive up against the traffic to North Bay to go ride your horses.

Okay. Okay. I've taken investor calls while on a horse. Okay. Almost fell off. Wow. On an investor call while on a horse. Wait, walk me through.

Like, are they the same breed? Like, what's the story with the three horses? Why three? Horses are potentially the worst investment you could ever make. I do not recommend them. They are worse. I feel like there's some, like, seed valuation joke you could make here about horses.

Anyhow, they tend to break themselves. They're like self-destructive. We were thinking about getting a horse at one point. We wanted to race it in the Kentucky Derby and give it like some funny name. We were going to call it the ramp. Yeah. And we were running the numbers and it wasn't that crazy as a marketing system. Well, yeah, you get into it and you're like, okay, maybe it's like a hundred K for the horse.

And then it's like a couple grand a month to like. But it's such a funny stop. Someone's going to do it now that we said it on the show. Dude, that color would look sick on a horse, though. I know, like imagine the racing stripes. I love it. Anyway, sorry. Kick us off with an introduction on yourself and the company.

Hi, yeah. I'm Celine Hollowah. I'm the founder and CEO of Loyal, and we're developing drugs to extend dog lifespan. Amazing. Horses next? Horses next. Venture capitalist next.

Humans eventually. What was the inspiration for the company? Did you know that you wanted to start with animals, or was that purely like the FDA? No. So I actually was working in human longevity, So I worked with a previous guest of y'all's Laura Deming at her venture fund for a few years. And we were just frustrated because nobody was trying to develop a drug explicitly for lifespan extension, right?

And we're like, this is obviously, like obviously we all were longer and healthier. That was a surprise. Everybody was promising it, but nobody was working on it specifically. Not directly. No, they're all kind of going these indirect paths. And so we became obsessed with how to do this. Realized to do it in humans, it would take a lot of time, a lot of money. But you could do it in dogs.

It's a super crazy market. I hear one of you as a dog person. I am. My dog was supposed to attend, but I have to leave right after. He's busy. He was chasing squirrels. He's a 10-year-old Newfoundland. So he needs...

Oh, wait. So you understand this. No, yeah. Because we're starting with the big dog short lifespan. Yeah, on your homepage. Yeah, yeah, yeah. For a while at least. Yeah, no.

Newfis are the shit. Yeah, no. It was like the dog was pitched to me as like, look, every day after year five is like a miracle because they're known to have extremely short lifespans. And so I kind of set myself up for like, look, like, I'm, I'm, not coming in. You get a golden retriever, you're not thinking, like, yeah, it's going to live for 40 years. So I just went into it thinking, okay, I'm getting in Newfoundland. It's six to eight years or something. And he's done very well. He's 10 years old. Good job. We need to sequence

your dog. I'll send you a saliva kit, which I have an investor that has two giant new feats that they bring around everywhere. Like on his plane. It's hilarious. It's hilarious. Well, that's why he's living so long. Yeah, that helps. Blind private helps. Do not take your dog's commercial. Yeah. But I actually got convinced to take their term sheet because they sent me their Pinterest board, which was just Newfies all the way down.

I love Newfee's. That's best dogs. Fully committed. They're so good. So, yeah, on the fact that there's never been a drug explicitly for longevity, is that just because, like, in order to have a drug, you need a, like, a problem or some sort of, like, it needs to be a treatment for a specific condition and just death is not a condition.

And so is that the right narrative? Yeah. Like the way to think about it is to be able to have a drug to approve to do something, you have to prove that the drug is doing that thing. Sure. And so if I gave you guys a longevity drug and I was like, oh, let's see if it extends your lifespan. This wait 50 years.

Yeah, I'd be following you for decades, that the company's going to be long dead and all of that. It's also hard to prove that the drug was the catalyst for longer life, right? It could have been, oh, they just got a lot of sun or they walks a lot. There's a lot of variability, right? like the decisions you make, the Yerba Mata being pro or anti-la longevity, whatever it is, right? All of these things vary aging. It's one of the most complex phenotypes, but we all go through it.

And it's the same thing is true in dogs, but the good thing about dogs, at least when you're developing a longevity drug, is they age much faster. Sure. So you can see if something is working in a period of time, that's much more reasonable. And you can theoretically have a much more like isolated study. Is that right? Just because... What do you mean isolated? Well, I just imagine like it's easier to control factors in a dog's life versus like a bunch of humans.

Like a dog is not going on in a Bender in Las Vegas. That is. Yes. Yeah. So you can just be like, yeah, well, we know exactly what the dog's diet was pretty much every single day. Maybe it got into a cheeseburger once. But a human is like using Diet Coke one day and then some alcohol and then this and then Bender and then Burning Man. Who knows?

There's so many confounding factors. The dogs aren't like, didn't have like a cheeky cigarette habit earlier in their life that they don't talk about or something. No, it's true. Yeah, dogs just, it's a lot, it's still complicated, but it's much more simple. And then you also have these individual breed variants, which teach you a lot about humans too, right? Like, why does a new fee have such a short lifespan versus a golden versus a chihuahua? You can study these things in a much more quickly way. Yeah, why not mice, though?

I feel like there's a lot of mice studies. It works in mice. You know, I love mice. I don't think mice are a multi-billion dollar market. Yeah, that's the thing, the commercial opportunity of dogs, if you ask a dog owner, how much would you pay to have an extra year of healthy lifespan for your dog? Yeah. And I'm sure there's a wide range between like $1,000 and some people that are like,

I would pay any price. I will, you know, liquidate my 401K for another two years. It's actually really interesting. Like people, it's not actually really at all correlated to socioeconomic status or how much, you know, people, cash, people have in a bank, they will just spend anything, a certain subset of the population will spend anything on their dog. I've had people offer me $50,000 for the drug before. I would like to note to the FDA that I said no. Yes. But I've actually gotten a lot of offers like this. The willingness to pay is insane. The market is huge. And so we could hopefully make a

multi-billion dollar company around this and then use that revenue to fund more research. Yeah. Maybe into horses. Love it. Yeah. What was the initial... Yes, please. What was the initial target, kind of the biotech side of the business? like how do you know what to target? How do you narrow it down? Like there's a lot of different life extensions, NAD and telomere extension and just, you know, cardiac stuff. There's like a million different sub-indications that people think about

when they're thinking about their own longevity. How do you narrow it down? What do you focus on? So the way we thought about it is we wanted something that was as broad as possible. So as, you know, efficacious and relevant to the chihuahua as it is to another dog, right? And even if they have different food or different behaviors or, you know, more and bread or less in bread. that it still may work.

So that was one. And two, you want something that's relatively simple, right? Aging is so unbelievably complicated that when you add any additional variables, like things just become exponential really quickly. And so where we actually started is what you were talking about early with Newfis, with the short lifespan of big dogs.

Because it turns out the genetic driver of dog size, I think that makes a new figure really, really big in puberty, or makes a Tuwawa not grow big in puberty, also genetically controls the rate of aging of that dog. So your new fee, maybe not your new fee, but the average new fee is actually aging at a much faster rate.

And so that was a really nice place to start because, A, it's something that everyone understands, especially big dog lovers. They're like, I know, I know the heartbreak of losing a Great Dane or losing a large Labrador. And it was like simple mechanistically. And it was applicable to a wide swath

of the canine population. Basically, any dog over a certain weight would be eligible and has this problem, right? Because they're not living as long as Chihuahua that lives for 16 years, every other bigger dog has a somewhat shorter lifespan than that theoretical maxima. So, I mean, how do you explain what the drugs are actually doing? So basically...

That's a black box, unfortunately. Basically, the way to think about it is, you know, all puppies are born approximately the same size, but a Great Dane puppy has super high levels of these proteins called growth hormone and IGF1. And these are circulating at really high levels and they're basically binding to their cells are saying grow divide, grow divide. And that's why your burner puppy, or Newfee puppy, is getting so big. That's normal.

It happens in humans, too, but it shuns down significantly once you're fully grown. Sure. In a big dog, it doesn't. Yeah. So big dogs still have these super high levels of these growth hormones circulating around that are basically making the dog turn over at a faster rate. So what the drug does is it inhibits those levels, it brings them down to a level that's seen naturally in dogs.

So think bringing a Newfee's level down to an Aussie shepherd or something similar. Interesting. And this is like this idea that if you reduce growth hormone, if you reduce IGF1, extends lifespan. It's actually been shown all the way from worms to mice to, you know, a multitude of organisms. And there's even human centenarians that have the same genetic, you know, things that you always do. And our bio- They're spiritually chihuahuas. So is the like- I think that's an insult.

Yeah. Is the scientific like phrase like IGF-1 inhibitors, essentially? Yeah. And our biohackers using that, like, like, over the wild. like against the FDA? Are they, Is there medical tourism? These sort of fringe biohackers and what they're, is there anything to learn or just?

Well, yes, there's always things to learn. You know, it's funny. People actually often will supplement growth hormone in IGF1 because it makes your muscles really big. Oh, sure. And it's very aesthetic. It's kind of like human growth hormone. Yeah, exactly.

Exactly. It does not increase function, but it does increase like muscle size. So a lot of people might not be happy. It doesn't correlate with strength at all. It's just like, it's like, yeah, you guys can't tell, I'm on it. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Well, I mean, yeah, plenty. I think the people that are taking HGH are doing that specifically entirely for aesthetic reasons and their post-strength. Yes, yes, they are post-strength. But are there people in the biohacking community that swear by it or are they optimistic that it will have an effect on, longevity for them? Yeah, I mean, this mechanism is pretty consensus as a longevity mechanism. It's not going to be as like this specific

one, the big dog short lifespan, isn't going to be as relevant to humans because like I'm not living twice as long as you guys, right? Me being so short that I'm having to like sit on my feet. Sure, but a new fee does live twice as, lives half as long as a chihuahua. Exactly, exactly. So think of it as kind of like a biological hack

to have a foot into a very, very, very complicated biological problem. Yep. What's the current understanding of why women live longer than men? I mean, we just do less crazy shit. It's just risk-taking? Yeah, it's wrist-taking. No way.

I think it's like heart attacks or something. No, I actually don't know. There's like a real reason, but I don't know. Yeah, yeah. I like the idea that dudes are just wing-seating. Dudes are just fucking insane. So walk me through the actual process to commercialize and, you know, grow the business. I imagine the FDA has a number of different subgroups, veterinary medicines.

One of them, is that a more receptive, faster pathway than just the traditional drugs for humans pathway? Are you accelerated there? Yeah, so the FDA on the veterinary side is super stringent, right? It matters a lot in some ways, you know, almost more because a dog can't talk. So you're really trusting the FDA and you're trusting your veterinarian, that this like pill you're giving isn't going to, like, cause some disaster. Sure. But the nice thing with canines is that the incentives are really, really aligned, right?

Like everybody wants dogs to live a longer, healthier life. And preventative medicine is really where it is with dogs because, you know, there's no insurance. Nobody's getting half a million dollar cancer, car tea therapies or whatever, right? It's always a dog owner having to pay out of pocket. So most of the really successful dog drugs today are already preventative medicines. Think like heartworm prevention, right? It's reducing the risk of your dog getting a dog.

disease that if you give the drug, you'll never see them get that disease. Right? Flea and tick, same thing. There's a lot of categories of medicines like this. So yeah, it's actually been really fun to work with them. And then the new administration is like, well, it's a little complicated, like super pro longevity, right? And so it'll be interesting to see how that maybe impacts the human side where things are

very regulated, but also just a bit more complicated. But it seems absolutely critical, even just from a fiscal standpoint that we figure out how to get people to live longer and healthier. Yes. It's, you know, people when you talk about longevity, they tend to be like, oh, but like you're just going to make the rich live longer. And like the fact of the matter is the rich already live longer because they can also access better cancer meds, better, you know, doctors.

I do like preventative screens all the time. The vast majority of Americans could never afford that, right? Versus like a daily cheap pill that broadly extends your quality of life and broadly extends your lifespan. It not only helps that individual to potentially, prevent them or delay them developing cancer. It also helps their children who aren't going to have to become caretakers before their own careers have taken off.

It means that they can have more flexibility in pursuing doing the next great thing. I think actually, like, you know, better health of the population is one of the best great equalizers we could bring. Yeah. How closely does your business track to what I'm loosely familiar with in the biotech world where it's like you're in the lab, you develop the drug, then you test it on like dog, monkey, mice, something like that. You take that data through phase one, phase two. It's a multi-year process. The company might IPO and then get bought by Merck or Pfizer at some point. That's what I think

of when I think of biotech. Like, yes, we've created a new drug for like this very specific cancer, but it's still a $10 million or $100 billion outcome because it like, it fixed this one thing and it became very profitable. Is that the typical path or is it wildly different in veterinary? Dude, your biotech context is like on point. I'm actually super impressed. We had a bunch of biotech investors and founders on one day when Trump was doing the most favorite nation thing. Mm-hmm. That whole thing.

Which I don't really know where that went, but anyway. It's okay. There was almost 100% tariff on us. Oh, really? Yeah. But that got taken away. It's been really interesting. It's been exciting.

It's all a roller coaster. My cortisol is just like, perfect. That's good for longevity. Yeah. My personal longevity is not benefiting from the will. So the way to think about it is, if you're comparing to human, is you do, maybe backing up a little bit, the overarching themes of developing a dog drugs, it takes like four to seven years, basically by a combination of how effective and how lucky you are to get a dog drug approved, takes about $20 to $50 million. For context in humans, it takes a decade to develop a human drug, takes about a billion dollars to develop a human drug. So you're like orders of magnitude faster and cheaper? Orders and magnitude faster and cheaper. And then actually the coolest things.

And you guys have been pretty lucky, right? We've also been lucky, right? And, like, totally. Where did you catch lucky breaks? Oh, my God. Well, I just feel like, I feel like the average, whenever you guys announce it, like, any type of milestone, the average investor is basically sharing something to the effect of you guys don't realize, like, how rare this is, like, the speed at which you guys have been able to

kind of just, like, knock down these different milestones. It's, I mean, we've gotten the first ever efficacy approval for a longevity drug. We've created the first regulatory pathway for a drug that makes for your longevity. For any species, right? Obviously, it's in dogs, but it's any species. And dogs actually are, they're regulated by the same federal regs as human drugs. So it was still a really huge lift. We've gotten, we're running the first ever lifespan pivotal FDA enabling clinical trial.

All of these things are super, super hard. We got, obviously we're like have a smart team. But yeah, you have to get really lucky too, right? We got lucky at the drugs. When you pick a drug and you're like, this is going to be a, a lifespan extension drug. It either is or isn't, right? And there's nothing I can do as CEO to make this drug work if it doesn't work.

Well, you can try and take like 10 drugs through the pathway at the same time, potentially. That's kind of what we're doing. Yeah. We have like foreign development. Okay. But that's really expensive. Of course. Right.

So you have to pick a couple candidates that have the most promise and luck comes in and like you hope one of those is the one that you picked. And you hope there isn't some like random toxicity that you find out at the 11th hour and that like totally nukes. And especially was a longevity drug. Like there's zero tolerance for adverse events. There's zero tolerance for me turning your dog blue. Yeah, because it's not like you have a bad condition that you're trying to treat.

Exactly. Some side effects or the average patient would be okay with some side effects. Yep. It's like you're going from net neutral to it has to be better. Exactly. Exactly. And it can't reduce quality of life. I mean, that much. I mean, there's people like, what are some of the human, the drugs that human patients are taking?

I feel like Peter Atia and people are taking certain drugs that like rap mycin. Yeah, they like metformin like reduces your like athletic performance. They all have some like like metformin is like works by improving your metabolic fitness, which we actually have drugs that are actually our lead drug now is developed is improving metabolic fitness. And senior dogs is a very like robust way. Like if you've ever intermittent fast or calorically restricted, that's a way to improve your metabolic fitness. Metformin just does that as a drug. It's an old diabetes drug.

But yeah, it has a bunch of like stomach side effects. And also just when you give any drug for a long time, bad things can happen. Yeah, there's also it can't, if somebody were to reclassify it as a, there's no incentive to reclassify metformin as a longevity drug because it's off patent. Exactly. So you would spend all this money off. I didn't know that. Because I was, because there's a lot of, it's debated, right, but there's a lot of evidence

that like aspirin could be potentially beneficial for lifespan. but nobody would do the work to reclassify it because it's off patent. And you could spend a billion dollars proving that it works, and then everybody could just make it. Yep. Yep. Yep. And this is like a niche thing that actually-

And so you can't even market aspirin as- No, no, it's not a viable way of claim. No, no. And this is a niche reason why Loyal made a lot of sense and why I was like, okay, I guess I'm going to go and do this, is you have this catch-22 when you're trying to develop a humid longevity, drug, which is you need something that has a ton of safety, both acutely, right? So if you took like five of them, nothing bad's going to happen, but also over a period of time. Right? If I give it to you

for a decade, is it going to increase your risk of colon cancer or something? The only way you know that is by giving it to that person for a decade. By the time you have done that, the drug is generic. One of the really cool things about animal health is that you actually, the FDA tries to incentivize people to develop and prove that new drugs work for animal medicine. So you actually can get 10 years of exclusivity from the FDA if you develop a novel, a generic drug for a novel use case in dogs. So we have actually both. We have licensed human drugs. We have generic drugs, but it means that you are able to go in and say, look, this might not work, but it's not going to do any harm. And that's so important when you're trying to create regulatory pathways, when you're trying to

convince veterinarians to prescribe something that's never existed before, to convince the dog owners, seduce me they've never done before, to be able to say wholeheartedly there's decades of data, and we don't think this drug's going to do any harm. That helps. Are you guys feeling any acceleration from various AI models? It seems like we have people on the show every week that are building AI for science, AI for drug development,

and foundation models dedicated to it, and yet you're here. You haven't said AI once. I have not said AI once. This was so funny. It was a meta point. We were working on loyal narrative stuff. And I was like, should I just like let go,

my ego and have an AI story. And I was like, they're like, anyhow, there's, there's no AI in the loyal story. But like, I really debated it because I was like, man, I wonder if this would like increase my valuation by like a factor of, too. What about ELL? And that would be good for dogs and it'd be good for horses. Yeah. No, but that's saying something that you're actively doing all of this drug development. And meanwhile, there's companies coming out and they're making the claim, at least to investors, that they're going to be able to, you know, speed up drug development, do it more efficiently, et cetera. So, I mean, so here's the problem.

Because I'm sure you've tried to figure out how do we unlock value here. Yeah, so here's the problem with AI for drug development is I'm, like, I'm not an AI person, but like I am like in terms of like technically trained, but I am, you know, sure the models are good enough that we gave them biological data. They could infer things that human scientists couldn't. The problem is we don't have those data sets. Like they don't exist for a human. I can't say, okay, here's like your model.

And if I give you a drug, how is it going to react in this part of your body, that part of your body, how is it going to get reduced over time? How is it going to interact with this other drug you're on? We just don't have those data sets. Yeah, we saw this with Alpha Fold. Like Alpha Fold came out. Protein folding solved. It turned, the biotech markets didn't really move because it turns out that actually solving

protein folding problems is like 0.1% of the job to do to get a new drug to market. You've got to recruit patients and then monitor them and then talk to the FDA. Do legal work. Yeah, there's so much more to do. You know, like our big longevity study that we're running in dogs right now, I think the biggest risk to it is actually operational. It's data quality. It's dogs not dropping out.

It's veterinarians complying, right? Like the biggest reason the study would fail is that if we have to throw out a bunch of data in five years because it doesn't adhere to the standards that are necessary. Yeah. Right. So there's some interesting AI companies for like the beginnings of drug development. Like chai discovery is one that's trying to do basically better antibody. binding design, that's smart.

I think that makes a lot of sense. But, I mean, I'd love to be proven wrong, but I think there hasn't been like a moonshot for the bio data gathering on the clinical side that would be necessary to like model you and see what works. Well, it's not a good, yeah, it's not a business. Yeah, it's not a business.

You're taking a, even if somebody was able to raise a billion dollars with the idea, it's like, would they, would they come to you and be like, what do you need? And then they'd be like a services provider to like help, And that's the hard thing. So we're building all these biobanks out. And so we're going to have potentially one of the best data sets of translational aging in a species. That's the best model of humans that isn't humans.

And so maybe we'll be able to do it from then. But like I would feel disingenuous for me to say like, yeah, that's a strategy because just like no one knows. Like biology is like the ultimate black box. And it's the ultimate humbler, honestly. What about peptides? Are dogs on ozempic yet? Are dogs on OZemPEC? Actually, so this is my favorite fun fact.

Everyone is like, oh, are you just developing like, OZemPEC for dogs? And the answer is no. Because people don't want their dog to not be hungry. Think about it, right? You go home, your dog's super excited to see you, jumps on you, you're like, oh, my dog loves me so much. I'm the elephant male.

Your dog's probably hungry. Yeah. Right? And so when people give their dog a Zempeg or OZempic-like drugs. It just takes all the joy. It takes all the joy. Oh, right. The dog becomes a cat.

Oh, no. No, this actually existed before. Yeah, if I think about like my most cherished memories with my dogs growing up, it was like my dad, my brother, and I making scrambled eggs for the dogs. Yeah. It's like that was peak, peak experience as like a, you know, 10-year-old. No, totally. It's not a good market.

So like our other drug that's working on metabolic fitness to extend lifespan, which is very similar to how Ozmpic works, it is targeting, you know, improving metabolic fitness, but we make sure explicitly that the mechanism that we're hitting doesn't impact appetance and doesn't impact like weight in general. Any book recommendations for us? That's cute that you think I have time to read as a... Any movie recommendations?

Must Love Love's What you got for us? You know, I watched Love is Blind France last night. Okay, love is blind. You're really trying to turn off your brain. I'm sorry. I, you know, I want to be one of those like CEOs. I'm like, these are the esoteric, hyper-intellectual books I'm reading that show that I'm smarter than you. What? No.

There's no shame. I was reading a book that there's only one copy. It's thousands of years old. Yeah. You don't have access to it. It's English, but you wouldn't understand. Yeah. But, like, honestly, like, loyal is my all day every day.

Like, I don't have. What's the general routine like at Loyal for you? So we're actually fully remote. Okay. Which I know. Contrarian. Contrarian. But it actually works well because we have to hire people.

We have to hire the best possible person for each skill set we need. And often those people are not, actually, they're almost never in the Bay Area. I'm going to St. Louis after this. That's where we have a lot of team members. We have a lot of team members in Kansas. We have them in Florida, right? And so you get so much more benefit from hiring the right person for the right role than you do saying, I'm going to hire the second or third best person, but they're willing to move to SF, right?

Yeah, yeah. So for me, I actually just live at coffee shops. I sit out of some of our investors' offices, bring my dog. Maybe one day whenever I'm able to fly private, I'll bring my dog. Is Antonio Gracios the one with the two newfis? No. Okay. No, he does have a cute dog, though, or his partner does.

Because it says you raised from valor. I did raise from valor. We got to hit the gong for you. Thank you so much. We're hitting the gong for me. Of course. I mean. And all the dogs.

And all the dogs. Currently getting studied. Congratulations. What's the next big milestone that people should be looking out for? The next big milestone? I mean, we're just trying to bring this damn drug to market. Honestly, like, that's a big one. Hopefully in the next year or so.

I mean, pray for us. It's like the hard stuff's behind us. But there's a lot of hard stuff in front of us, too. Well, good luck. Caught between hard stuff, as every entrepreneur is. It's a worthwhile goal. Anyways, well, I think we can close out the show with you because we actually have to hit the road.

Well, first we got to tell you about 8Sleep.com. Yeah, when are you going to put the animals on the 8th sleep? You do have an 8 sleep. That's great. We also got to tell you about Bezell. If you want a watch for your dog, go to getbezzle.com. Get him a submariner. And if you want to take your dog on a vacation, head over to wander.

There you go. Find your happy place. Book of Wander with Inspiring. Thank you. The chat says, when can we buy loyal. stock. I'm assuming you can't answer to that. We got to raise a pun. SEC something, something. Okay. Sorry guys. Private company. Become a venture capitalist.

Someday in a very bright future, I'm sure. But thank you for tuning in with us today. We'll be back tomorrow morning. I can't wait. See you tomorrow. Have a great afternoon. Goodbye. Love you. Bye.