TBPN - The State of AI: A Field Trip to TBPN’s Aura Farm + Today’s Top Tech Stories | Diet TBPN

Episode Date: November 22, 2025

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You're watching TBPN. Today is Friday, November 21st, 2025. We are live from the TBPN Ultradome, the Temple of Technology, the Fortress of Finance, the capital of capital. We have generated an image of the ORA farm, the world, trying to understand a barnyard. A barnyard. Sort of an AI market map, but through the lens of a barnyard,

because that's really what is going on in AI these days. And we can take you on a tour of our our farm-based market map to explain what's happening in the state of AI in November of 2025. Tyler, do you want to take us through it? Sure, yeah. I mean, so we like to use a lot of animal idioms on this show. A lot of these you might recognize, but we've kind of expanded out to try to cover all the major players. And, you know, so, yes, this was made with Nanobanana Pro, very, extremely good model.

So you will notice, as you get more and more complex, it gets a little bit sloppy. There's some slopp in some places. Yeah, before Nanabonanna Pro was released, we would have needed to hire somebody that maybe illustrates children's books. And if they were an expert, maybe they could have whipped something together in a day. This took you far longer than that, you know, prompting over and over and over. Yeah. Okay, so I guess let's just kind of go through each of the animals.

Maybe let's just start with some of the more obvious ones, the ones we've talked about a lot on the show. So let's start over here with the piggies. So here we see the pigs at the slop trough. Who's there? So this is, broadly, this is just label as meta. You can imagine a lot of people here, right? You could see SORA here.

Sure. Bill Peebles. Bill Peebles could be, you know, eating some slop. Yes, metal vibes. Just like broadly, AI in general, some people think basically all AI is slopped. They do.

There's been a lot of criticism. Yeah, but I think that one's fairly clear. You don't want to be the pig at the slop trough. Although sometimes, you know, maybe the profitability of being a slop farmer is underrated. Obviously, America has a lot of pigs that live at the trough. They eat from the trough. They eventually the pigs go to slaughter. They become bacon.

They are sold into the economy. You can make a good living as a farmer. who maintains a drop. And then there's the Jeremy Gaffan take, which is we hate slop now because we know that in a few years it will no longer be slopped. So don't count out the piggies yet.

This is the sloppiest slop will ever be. That's true. That's true. Okay, who else is on this? So then let's move up. Let's see, we have the henhouse here. Yes. And who's in the hen house is the fox.

The fox? Right. And so this you can say is kind of Oracle in the same outline, right? Oracles is the henhouse. Yes. They're letting. Letting the fox in a little bit.

Potentially. Yeah, we'll see what, you know, what ends up happening. Again, now that I'm looking at this image, the fox isn't actually in the hen house yet. But he's kind of circling it. He's circling the hen house. And there's a question of how far into the henhouse has the fox got. And I think it's notable that the chickens don't seem too disturbed yet. Yes, yes.

Yeah, yeah. They're getting along because the fox could just be browsing, could just be stopping by. Could be a friendly, friendly fox. Yeah. But, but of course. It is, if you have a lot of cash flow as a big company, if you have the ability to borrow billions or hundreds of billions in the debt market, you have to protect your henhouse because foxes might come by and might want to, you might want to use you to co-sign a loan.

Okay, so then we see the cash cow? The cash cow. This is Nvidia. The only profits in AI. For a long time, I don't know if anyone has really unseeded them. They're certainly the most profitable by far. Now you're starting to see maybe some cracks with TPUs, but even then, I mean, they're still doing it's still a cash cow.

We just saw they just beat earnings. I mean, we have an article here from the journal. And video results fail to quell AI worries. Not enough people are milking the cash cow. I gave you the perfect quarter. Or maybe the cash cow. I gave you the perfect quarter. I know.

And you still sold off. Maybe the cash cow has been overly milked and is out of milk at this point. I think it's still producing. I think it does seem like it's still producing. That looks like a healthy cow to me. Yeah. Here we have the bull in the china shop. The bull in the China shop.

I think there's a couple ways you could read into this. So Elon, one is just kind of on the, maybe the data center infrastructure side where he's kind of the bull. Imagine that you're a contractor and you're building data centers for these companies and then you see Elon come in and he does it in eight months, what took you in a year and a half?

He's kind of messing up your world, right? Totally, totally. He's like, oh man, this bull, he's messing up my business. I need to be working way harder, way faster. He's also shipping features so fast. Like before people could even have a discussion over adult content, it was like, boom, Annie, here it, here it is, Valentine. He's moving so fast. This is the other way you could say he's the bull because there's kind of this maybe unspoken rule between the model companies where it's like, okay, we don't want to go too hard into the companion space.

There were companies doing that, but they weren't, it wasn't the opening eyes, it wasn't the Anthropics, wasn't the Gemini's. And then now you see a frontier model actually moving into their, he's kind of messing stuff. GROC is of course the maximally truth-seeking LLM. Just yesterday I was asking GROC, who is the strongest CEO in tech? And it told me that Elon Musk is the strongest by far. And it actually compared him to a bull. It said he was stronger than a bull and that he could beat a bull in a fight if he went head to head with his bare hands. Absolutely right.

Yes, absolutely right. What else is going on here? So I bet Claude would agree if you really press Claude on it and say, yeah, you're absolutely right. You're absolutely right. Who else is gone? So let's move down here. We have the lipstick on a pig. And I think this you could say is Apple Intelligence.

Right? I mean, although I feel like this is actually almost flipped a little bit, right? Because the pig is usually like the ugly thing and then you add the makeup to make it look nicer. Yeah. Well, I think that's what they did here, right? They took a bad model and they dressed it up and they said it was great and they said you should buy a new iPhone because of it. And the model was bad. And there's no amount of marketing.

marketing that is like change public perception once the product hit the market. You could also run the the pig is the privacy focused iPhone ecosystem that is pretty difficult to just run in and throw AI on top of like Apple has been building a brand around we don't access your data. We don't store your data. We would never train on your data and and that put them in an awkward position where they couldn't just snap their fingers and deliver a great AI experience, whereas Google has been, hey, we'll give you Gmail for free, but we'll also, you know, probably train on wherever you go on the web and try and understand and route ads to you appropriately.

Meadow was in a similar position. And so those two companies were a little bit more equipped to just on day one go and go and deliver AI features. Apple had to put lipstick on their pig, which is their privacy focus device. It was definitely more of like an afterthought. It was more of a kind of shallow integration, you could say. So then we have the dark horse. And this is SSI.

Okay. Of course. We're still yet to see anything really from SSI. I was charging around in the background. Yes. Yeah. Kind of this elusive figure. So the big kind of departures from Open AI, it was Miram Radi and Aalya, you could say.

And Miramaradi's company thing machines. I mean, they're raising up rounds. They have, they have blog posts. Yeah. They do actually have a product. They do have a product. Let's hear it for product. Why did you tell me earlier?

Why did you bury the lead? They have blog posts. They're good blog posts. I like them. So in a couple of years, we could be seeing vibreels. Is that what you're saying? We could be seeing launch videos. So they do have a product, right? It's like, R.L. fine-tuning.

Watch your head. There's a huff. The horse is really. But, I mean, they're not really dark horse. Like, you can, they're a bright horse. I don't know if that's a phrase, but like, you can see what they're doing. Clydesdale or a beautiful sign. They're a unicorn 50 times over.

50 times over. Yeah. We didn't put a unicorn on here. That's an animal. It would get too sloppy. Okay. What else do we have? What else is going on?

Or a farm. So here we see another horse. Yes. And there's two ways you could look into this horse, right? One is this phrase, look a gift horse in the mouth. Yes. Right? Do you want to explain this, John?

Yes. So, do you know this phrase? I know this phrase. Okay, so looking at gift horse in the mouth is if someone gives you... There's like a term that was thrown around in the 80s? Yeah. This is back in my day. Back in my day.

So obviously, just giving someone a horse, a horse is a valuable asset today, but also, hundreds of years ago. It's always been a valuable tool on the farm. And the way that you assess the quality of a horse, one way to assess, whether it's been taken care of, whether it's healthy, is to look in its mouth. Always look a gift horse in the mouth. No, never look to get, never look a gift horse. Oh, because it would be offensive. It's offensive. It's like you're not expressing gratitude. Yes. So I think this, these are just the public market investors, right? Right. We've been given this gift of AI. Why are they selling their stocks right now? Why are they selling? They've been giving, they need to be buying.

This beautiful gift and they just don't want it. They're selling, Nvidia's down. They're digging in a little bit too much. They should just be happy that they've been given AI, the next mega trend. Exactly. So also the horse could be a workhorse. A workhorse. And so I think you could say this is Amazon.

Yeah. It's kind of cooking around. It's been hard to define Amazon's AI strategy. It has been. Part of it is they're building data centers for anthropic, but they're definitely not getting overly ambitious. They're not like, you know, getting over their skis. But they're just doing the hard work. They're building the data centers.

They're serving. Yeah. Serving models. Maybe not fast enough. They might not be building the data centers fast enough. They might not be super aggressive. They're not, they're not, they're not, they're not, they're just dragging the plow. But they are consistently dragging the plow, old reliable Amazon's cooking along.

They're, they're staying out of the, they're staying out of the slop trough. They're not doing a deal. Amazon has not done a deal yet with OpenAI for the agentic commerce thing. Maybe that changes, but for now they're just plodding along. Who else we go out? here. Let's go to the black sheep. The black sheep. So black sheep, there's also a lot of people that could fit in this. Yes, of course. But I think maybe Carpathy is one of them. Yeah. Andre Carpathie. Some of these contrarian takes about maybe just the decade of agents.

To be clear, we're not calling him a sheep. He's not, there's... It should be more of a black wolf. Black wolf. But the idea is that he's standing out. A lot of people in his, in his class of of ultra-respected, you know, technologists, some of the, you know, most experience. He's really been at Tesla. He's seen the AI wave. He's been working in it for decades. He's really worked on this.

He's printed all of it. Yeah, he's done so much. And yet he's not sitting with the rest of them saying, bah. He broke, but he broke rank. Even though he's worked at Open AI, even though he's worked at Tesla, he broke rank, he went on the Dwarkesh Ketel show

and said, you know what? I think we're more in a decade of agents. I think AI might not be right around the corner. He took a contrarian stance at a very controversial time. And he popped the bubble with it. He basically popped the bubble with it. Maybe we'll see. The bubble will keep going.

The elephant in the room, the elephant in the room is, was in my view, really more of the 1.4 trillion, right? That was the question. That was the big question. That was what everybody wanted to talk about or at least understand better. Frad asked the question. And it's been downhill ever since. Yes. And it is, yeah, the elephant in the room is in every conversation.

Every financing round at this point is this deal predicated on a continuation of exponential growth in investment, in everything, like how much more, how risky is this relative to the amount of froth in the market? Yeah. Never ask a woman, her age, a man, his salary, or a lab founder, how they're going to spend $1.4 trillion. Yeah. Or how they're going to pay for it. Yeah. Who else we got on here? So then in the top right we have the bird's eye view.

Yes. So I thought this is... This is... This is Leopold. It's the perfect name. Right? He has the situational awareness. He's seeing everything.

He's kind of the master of the board. Yes. He's taking his bets and he's been doing pretty well off them. Yes, yes, yes. Yeah, that's pretty self-explanet. Yeah, I love it. So then we go down, we have lion's share. The lion's share.

This is Satya. Satya. He's taken great position in open. I don't know why he's on the haystack. I'll take a third of the haystack. I'll take a third of the company and you can give me 250 billion and I'll take 20% off the top. And I'll take all the IP as well. Yeah, everything. I'll also take your chip and I'm making my chip. Your chip is my chip.

The entire contract is not your chip. The entire OpenAI Microsoft deal is basically could just be summarized in one line. I get the lion's share. I get the lion's share. We see monkey business. These are the podcast. That's us. We're having fun. Yep. We got props. We got all. sorts of stuff, sound effects. We need some monkey sound effects on there. We have a bunch of animal-themed sound effects we need to have more fun with. Anyway, and then maybe let's go into the pond. We have the sitting duck. Yes, the sitting duck is incredibly cute. So Reddit, why was Reddit a sitting duck? Yeah, so I think they broadly... It's because whether or not you have a permit, you're getting, the hunters are going to get you. I think Alexis O'Henian sort of laid this out

saying that when Reddit did the deal to give the data to Open AI, they didn't realize how valuable that data was going to be, and that relationship has grown, grown, grown. And so they were kind of the sitting duck just sitting there. They didn't really, kind of got caught off guard, maybe could have trained their own model on their data internally. Yeah, I mean, I feel like Reddit has mostly been, they've kind of already gone out to the slaughter, in a sense, like every model company has trained off them. You'd think so, but look at the market cap.

It just keeps going up. Reddit was sold for $5 million or something when it launched. It's been... It was 10 to Condé Nas. 10 to Condé Nas. That's a crazy, crazy low valuation. And then eventually spun out. And then for a long time, it was in the hundreds of millions.

And no one was thinking this is a tens of billions. For a long time, the narrative was not, oh, yeah, this will be orders of magnitude more than snap. No way. No way. And then it just sort of finally came together. And we have the headless chicken. This is perplexity. Perplexity.

So I think perplexity, they have a lot of different strategies. Some of them kind of seem opposed to each other, right? Maybe they're doing a browser. Maybe they're doing a Bloomberg Terminal. Maybe they're rebuilding Yahoo Finance. I do see more positive reviews of their browser than any of the other AI browsers. There's just a lot of stuff going on. It's the Snapchat deal, the trying to buy TikTok, trying to buy Chrome, launching a venture fund,

Bloomberg Terminal. It's like, are you competing with all of these? Really, you're going to be TikTok and Chrome and Bloomberg and the next thing. Have you guys ever witnessed a headless chicken? No, I haven't. Growing up in the country, I have. You grew up in the country?

What are you talking about? I thought you grew up with the East Bay Rationalists. I was born in Berkeley, but I grew up in wine country. Oh, okay. And I have fortunately, unfortunately, watched my father take one of the chickens. you know every now and again a chicken needs to to move on to the next chapter and as a child you sound like you're firing the chicken it is a real thing they run for you know at least

20 seconds or so I'll never forget it so next we have the snake in the grass this is the Chinese open source models right these are kind of lurking I still don't really see that much coverage of Chinese open source models Nobody wants to talk about it. Well, no one has bags, so they can't pump them. Snake in the grass feels like, it's going to attack. Elephant in the room means we got to address it. It's like, it's totally possible that the entire open source LLM ecosystem is just like, yeah, there's like a $10 billion dollar business there.

It's sort of like, you know, a stalking horse, another animal-based analogy, but it's sort of a stalking horse for like, hey, Gemini and Anthropic. Like if you guys don't lower your prices, we will go to the open source option. And that's sort of what Linux, how Linux works. It's like that you can kind of bid the closed source models against the open source models. It's a very real threat to the business models of some of the closed source models. Maybe. I don't know. It's certainly a pressure. Kimmy is hot on everyone's tails.

The other thing is a soft power thing. Yeah. Ask a Chinese open source model about. Chanaman Square. So we agree it's a snake in the grass, but unclear how poisonous the snake is, unclear the size of that snake. Early bird that got the worm. This is Josh Kushner. I think so. Right? He got the worm. The worm is opening eye. Yes. He was very early investor. Early with size. Early with size. Double down many times. Yeah. He got the worm. He's the early bird. Incredible. Yeah. Why is anthropic donkey work?

Donkey work. I'm not 100% sure that this is like a real phrase. Apparently, I asked GVT 4.5 and I asked Gemini 3 Pro. Okay. And they both said it was a real thing. Okay, it's boring or laborious part of a job. It's drudgery, donkey work. In this case, I think it's kind of that Anthropic has gone very hard on coding and API and Enterprise. Oh, okay.

Okay. Yeah, they're not doing like the really hot, sexy, like... They're not doing a browser. They're not solving science. Yeah, they're not doing consumer science stuff. Yeah, they're doing the donkey work. Dario is sitting there being like... like, who's going to take all the jobs?

Who's going to take all the job? I like donkey work. That feels the most accurate for what they're doing. They're going after the entry-level white collar work. They're doing the donkey work. Google, I just love this image. I think this is the last one. Google is the fat cat.

Before we had Google snails pace, I think this would have been true maybe a year ago. Fat cat's so much funnier. Look at that cat. It's so fat. I love it. All the cash flow. All the TPUs.

All the TPUs. They're GPU rich. The best image model. The best text model depending on what bent part do you look at? They're on top of the world. Slightly concerned we have a sign for golden goose, but there's no use. The golden goose was removed, but the sign left it remains. Who stole the golden goose?

Yeah, who killed the golden goose? Or is there just no gold, if there's no golden goose in the AI barnyard, is that, is that bearish? The golden goose is a goose that lays a golden egg one every day and in the golden goose. And in the parable, in the story, the farmer kills the golden goose to get all of the gold inside, but it is revealed that by killing the goose, you no longer get the passive income. Maybe one take is the golden goose, they were the neoclouds, and then the market is hurting, is taking the goose away. Yeah.

Core weave not in the past, past what month they had been selling off a little bit. Core weave continues to lay golden eggs, but the market got over. heated and so that that sort of killed the gains or something. And the gold is the GPUs, subsidized GPUs. The Chip CEO staring down Nvidia and talk of an AI bubble at a board meeting in late 2022, Lisa Sue, chief executive of chip designer AMD, announced that she was radically changing course. I'm going to pivot the entire company, she told the directors gathered around a boardroom

table at the company's Austin campus. The rise of AI was a once in a lifetime opportunity, she said, and the company had to put AI at the center of its entire product line. Three years later, the Santa Clara California-based company has nearly quadrupled in size. Its market value rising from 90 billion to more than $3.35 billion, despite a recent pullback, AMD's strategy of positioning itself at the center of the global AI race has paid off handsomably making Sue into a billionaire, and her company into one of the only viable designers of powerful chips needed to power advanced AI models. In a market that has recently been completely dominated

by Nvidia, Sue is showing that there may be a place for a strong number two that can compete on- Insane flow, by the way. Check this up. Yeah. This is not the time to stay on the sidelines and worry, hey, am I over-investing, she said? It's much more dangerous if you under-invest

than if you over-invest, in my opinion. Let's go. I love it. As AI models like Chatchipati and Gemini, become increasingly integrated into daily life, and as companies design thousands of enterprise software tools that rely on AI models. Demand for inference functions

is about to go up by a billion times, Wong said last month. AMD has a strong line of inferencing, inference computing chips, but has struggled to design chips powerful enough to compete with Nvidia in training. Is 200 million, the new 100 million in luxury real estate? What do you think? Many people have been asking that.

So there's a $200 million dollar house, Indian Creek, a $250 million house in Bel Air, a $300 million house in Aspen, and a $205 million house in Palm Beach. A surge of ultra-rich buyers has pushed asking prices to new extremes, yet many headline-grabbing mega mansions languish on the market or trade for a fraction of their debut numbers just a decade ago. The $100 million price tag was still considered a new frontier for luxury real estate. The first nine-figure home sale occurred in 2011. By 2019, there had been about 20 sales recorded at that price point. Now, real estate insiders say a new pricing benchmark is setting the tone for the high-end market, 200 million. There's going to be a massive wave of wealth created

from the AI. Boom. I would not want to be in the market for a single-family home within 20 square miles of opening I. There's like 40 people that are looking for houses in the $5 to $7 million range in North San Francisco, and there's none for sale. All cash offers. I'm sure. From the liquidity. Yesterday, I resigned from TB Labs slash meta-AI. It wasn't there for very long, but I think I got a few useful things done.

Nice. It's an impressive group of people, and it's especially impressive that it got assembled as quickly as it did with such a high talent bar at a large company, quote, unquote, founder mode is real and good. I will certainly miss my coworkers there. I think now is an unusually high leverage time. to pursue ambitious new projects at the intersection of AI and other technologies. Please reach out to me if you're interested

in that sort of thing. And I expect I will have something more detailed to share in not too long. Is that the sound of a thousand venture capitalists writing term sheets? Bernie Sanders. Okay, what's happening with Bernie? Fire and shots.

Here are some of the most powerful AI oligarchs in the world enjoying a private dinner with a dictator who murders his own citizens with a bone saw. Oh, does any. really believe they want to wipe out poverty or improve life for ordinary Americans. I don't. And he's sort of mauging Greg Brockman here because he leaves Greg Brockman's net worth. He doesn't even try and estimate it. He just says question mark, question mark. Guess Bernie Sanders age. Uh, 75. Guess again. 78. Guess again. Seventy-seven. Guess again. 80. Guess again. 80. Guess again. I have no idea. 84. 84. Oh, he's up there. He's up there. So grandpa is

He's pissed. He's pissed. Yeah, I don't blame Bernie for being a little bit salty at this point because he's never on those charts of the best political traders in history, right? He's been having to sit there and watch Nancy Pelosi go on for the most insane runs. And he's just missed out. The FOMO must be crazy. Every day he's opening up and Nancy's up another mill and he's just sitting there like,

ah, I missed it, I missed it. Luxury watch guy is concerned about the Bitcoin's sell-off because he says there are going to be so many effing APs on the market, Face Palm. Oh, no. The cryptocurrency industry certainly has been known to enjoy an AP. Yeah. Google's genius. By not selling TPUs, Google allows NVIDIA to maintain high GPU pricing, which in turn props up price of inference.

Google then captures that inference price premium by running TPUs for inference on GCP. this is a conspiracy theory by Dave 3 and 30 Tepper. Just because you have two players in the market doesn't mean you can sort of have a, you know, what happens in the soda industry, right? But effectively, like, I was thinking of the GLP1 market. Yeah. There's just a lot of demand.

You don't need to cut prices. That and you also understand that you can get in there can be reason not to get in a race to the bottom dynamic and effectively have a gentleman's agreement to keep prices in a certain range. of course. That can go too far. Yeah. Shower thought.

Why is no one doing outbound for pizza? Hey, this is Gigi from Gigi's pizza calling. You ordered last week. We have a pepperoni pizza ready and could deliver it in 10 minutes. Are you hungry? Tech sales guys has a trillion dollar idea. And of course, it goes viral again. Some ideas and bangers are evergreen.

What is this story of the FBI raising a bounty for a former Olympic snowboarder who turned alleged drug kingpin. We love these stories. We covered this guy on the show before. Ryan James Wedding. He's married to the game. Is he? What is that?

No, what Ryan Wedding? Oh, Ryan Wedding. Okay, yes, he's married to the drug game, I suppose. He's a former Olympic snowboarder from Canada. He represented Canada at the 2002 Winter Olympics in Men's Parallel giant slalom. Whoa. After the Olympics, it is alleged that he became a transnational drug trafficker and Orca. orchestrated the murders of various witnesses.

Whoa. And he's only 44. So he's kind of just kind of hitting his stride. He was added earlier this year, March 6th, to the FBI 10 Most Wanted. So he's in the top 10. 10. They have any idea where he is? I wonder how he'd hunt this guy down.

And they're saying he's running one of the largest drug trafficking operation and is believed to be the dominant cocaine distributor in Canada. So from the Canadian Olympic team to the narcotics trafficking MVP status. The hard thing is when they talk about. Because drug kingpins have just been the stars of so many different great television TV shows and movies, Pam Bondi said he's the modern day iteration of Pablo Escobar. Somebody was about to turn him in, but they hear that. And they're like, oh, he's too cool to turn in. Can't do it.

It's not worth it. I just got to be friends with this guy. I'm living through history. Oh, wow. So after the 2002 Winter Olympics, he moved back to Vancouver and attended university. He got into bodybuilding and started working as a bouncer. After two years in university, he dropped out and began to speculate in real estate, which he financed by growing marijuana in a massive warehouse.

He eventually expanded his operation and joined up with Iranian and Russia. smugglers. Yeah. And in 2010, he was convicted of attempting to buy drugs from a U.S. government agent. And he went to prison for it. You know, there are so many startups these days that are going after Palantir's market, competing in enterprise software, enterprise AI, for deployed engineers. It's all a bunch of memes.

Everyone's keying off of the Palantir strategy. I think if you're trying to play in that market, you've got to take down a most wanted few Yeah. You get the 15 million, that's your seed round. And you use this as marketing. The company that finds this guy, I'm going to believe that your model's pretty good. Whatever you do, whatever you're doing, if you can find this guy, I'm going to be like, yeah, yeah, that's enough of an eval for me.

You pass the benchmarks. I don't care your MMLU. Tell me how many fugitives have you checked off the FBI top 10 most wanted list? Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for listening. Thanks for hanging out. love you and we'll see you on Monday. Have a fantastic weekend. Have a great weekend. Goodbye.