TBPN - X is Absolutely Printing, The Tale of Temu, Promoted Reviews, Larp as a Size Lord

Episode Date: February 6, 2025

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Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to Technology Brothers, the number one live show in tech. Today is Thursday, February 6th, 2025. Jordy, we got some breaking news. A Technology Brothers exclusive, really. X, the Everything app is now profitable. Let's go. There we go. There we go.
Starting point is 00:00:22 Yeah, we didn't scoop this, but we scooped it from the timeline. Schrelli has a fan. fantastic post here. I'll get into it. Julian had shared earlier. He says X also reported to investors 24 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of about $1.25 billion and annual revenue of $2.7 billion. Investors said that was a better picture than they had expected and that X's finances hit inflection point a few months before the November election. In 2021, Twitter reported adjusted EBITA of about $682 million. and about $5 billion in revenue.
Starting point is 00:01:01 That was the last full year before Musk took the company private. So Screlli basically calls out X's worth around the purchase price right now, which is $44 billion. If revenue keeps growing, $100 billion valuation is not unreasonable, crazy turnaround. So many people, you know, were trying to at some point stance on X's grave, said that Elon was running it into the ground. they did face you know the turnaround of Twitter was always going to be a challenge they got exponentially more challenging as every major advertiser left the platform and so they are coming back in a big way we're going to cover that on the show yeah we'll cover that soon a lot of heavy hitters are
Starting point is 00:01:44 bringing their ad dollars to the platform again which we love to see because it's more money in every poster's pocket yeah and overall we love this app uh you know we're We built our careers on it, and it's great to see it win. It provides an exceptional amount of joy and value to us here on the show and many of our listeners. So I love to see this. They had marked down, you know, the major investors had sort of marked down their positions at some point last year to around $20 billion. And now looking at this, if you have a business, it's doing $1.25 billion in Evita that's like the place that the most important conversations in the world are. happening live every single day. It's easy to see how that business, especially with its,
Starting point is 00:02:31 potential having these advertisers come back to the platform, launching a bunch of new features. I agree with Shrelli. It's easy to see how it gets to a $100 billion company and goes public again, probably on the Texas Stock Exchange. And I look forward to hopefully we can we can buy some X shares, you know, prior to them. But I look forward to owning it in the in the public market. Dot com portfolio, baby. Yeah. There we go. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:02:59 I mean, when this news hit, everyone was saying he overpaid, which it was, I mean, unequivocally, it was a rough time in the market because he bought it right at the end of the ZERP, and it probably would have been cheaper if he'd waited. Yeah. But he got the deal done. And all that matters is that it's an extremely important app with a really, really strong network effect. And he's an operator.
Starting point is 00:03:22 And Elon posted, you know, hey, maybe I'm actually. good with money, which I love. And there was a question about, you know, unfortunately, the previous team at Twitter, it turned over. There were multiple CEOs. There were lots of people trying things, but it clearly just needed a more aggressive approach. And a take private is like the, this is the quintessential example of when you want to do a take private because this would never be allowed to happen in the public markets. The stock would be all over the place. So instead, you take it private, you do some crazy reasons. imagining of the business, even change the entire business model. People were saying maybe they
Starting point is 00:04:00 should just charge for APIs or maybe they should just do subscription. Maybe they should subscription gate the entire app so you have to pay to even view to it. There were so many proposals and they all, and Elon got a chance to try them all and then see what works. And clearly he's on to something here. What do you got, Georgia? Yeah. Yeah. At the end of the day, he bought what in many ways at that price was somewhat of a toxic asset, right? It's not making a lot of money. But inside there was this nugget of potential and I think that I think that he found it and he's now you know giving it you know even more life and yeah there's been a lot of complaints from certain posters over last year because their reach has dropped but guess what else has dropped
Starting point is 00:04:44 John the quality of their posts that's true can't just uh you got to work the algorithm will work for you, but you got to work for the algorithm. And I'm sick of, you know, sloppy, low effort posters thinking that they have 100K followers, that they deserve 100K impressions on a post. You got to earn it every day. And, you know, the platform will work for you, but you got to work for it. So congratulations to the X team. I mean, we had to cut the episode short yesterday because of Tyler and Jacoby. But we got a lot cooking with X that we're super excited about. And we're very excited to take this live show 2x hopefully starting next week i think we just want to be back in the studio for it so um so yeah best app ever uh worth worth a trillion dollars in my heart and uh and now
Starting point is 00:05:36 probably around 44 billion uh you know mark to market i agree uh well moving on let's talk about some breaking news. Eric Glyman at Ramp has bought an ad for the big game. Let's go. The big game. Tune in on Sunday, the big game. I'm not exactly sure what that is. I know the Super Bowl is on Sunday. The big game sounds like maybe related to the big game related to the Super Bowl, but they're running an ad and they got Sequin Barkley in the studio shooting a beautifully directed ad very funny uh go check it out uh jordy can you break us down on what this means for ramp what this means for the future of advertising at the big game so i got to be honest with you john we got
Starting point is 00:06:24 a little in we got the scoop on this uh last week and they said you know we're running an ad with with saquan barclay i go amazing i love ads you got to tell me who that is and then they go on to say you know future MVP future hall of famer he's you know he's playing in the big game i said what's the big game they said the super bowl and i said i will be tuning in now because i'm excited to see this ad but um no i think it's i think it's amazing it's it's um you know there's evolutions right you go from posting a couple posts on x then you maybe run some some you know meta ads and then maybe you know do a little organic tic talk and then you do some out of home ads and then eventually you're run in Super Bowl ads. And so I think it's just the evolution of the ramp advertising engine.
Starting point is 00:07:16 And I'm excited to see it. I love the constraint of Super Bowl ads. You have so little time. You have to deliver a message that is going out to all of America. It's like it's the best channel to reach a truly diverse audience. It's, you know, football shouldn't be politicized. There's, there's people from all walks of life and industries from employees that will be users of ramp. to business owners that'll, you know, sign up for it themselves to CFOs that are already using Ramp and are just excited to see Ramp, you know, running ads on the big game. So great moment. It really hits the core value prop in just 10 seconds. Like, you know, everyone's, everyone in business has been in the position of finally expense reports. It very clearly shows how much that sucks
Starting point is 00:08:04 and how much of a distraction that is. And it gets the rest across very quickly. And the line, you know, basically would you pull Sequan Barclay off the field to file expense reports? Perfect analogy for your team. Your team, you're hiring, you're paying all these amazing people to do work on your business. You're going to take them off the field doing the real work and have them file expense reports. Bad idea. Run on ramp, save him time. And it's awesome that he's an investor now in ramp and actually aligned with the future of the company.
Starting point is 00:08:34 Really cool. I see many more ramp ads in the future. with Seqon. So I'm excited to see how this plays out. Yeah. And I'm really excited, obviously, like, Ramp markets to CFOs. And I think this will be a very interesting case study for Ramp to share with their audience of CFOs. You know, obviously this is a very top of funnel, very broad brand marketing strategy here. But the more interesting thing to me is I want to hear how much they spent. Did they get the ROI? How they track it? Because I think a lot of companies look to Ramp as a high growth company and they say, I want to, you know, be efficient.
Starting point is 00:09:10 I want to grow similarly. And if Ramp can put together a really great case study on, hey, we took this big swing and here's what happened. Here's how we, here's how we tracked it. Here's how we think we did. And yeah, we think we got positive R.I. And this is a, this is a proper Super Bowl ad. You can go and spend six figures to get slotted in in some tiny County in Nebraska and you got a Super Bowl ad. And if you're tuning in at that moment, people will see it. But this is going to be a national ad. Everybody's going to be seeing it.
Starting point is 00:09:43 And you're going to be, want to be locked in for this one. We might have to do a live stream during the show and just wait, wait for the ad to go. And then maybe a little champagne, you know, it's a big moment. I think of Sunday really just as a showing of this ramp ad. And then they're playing some football around it to help promote the ad. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, the Super Bowl is really to promote the advertising. Exactly.
Starting point is 00:10:08 That is the intermission to me. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, let's move on to another size gong moment from none other than Cursor. They just hit $100 million in ARR. Let's go. I wish I was there to hit the gong for you, John. It's not the same, but you know, you can do a little self-hit there.
Starting point is 00:10:27 It's a mess. It's a mess. We do it work in the size gong and the slides and the mic. I'm doing the best I can. Usually, we hit the size going for M&A fundraisers, but this is even more special. One to 100 million in ARR in, I think it's like 1.9-ish years. Very fast. Crazy number.
Starting point is 00:10:48 And developers really love this tool. They, I feel like in many ways, I already say they can't live without it. So love to see it. Incredible progress. This was a painful one for me. When Kircher started blown up, I clicked to the founder's profile. He had been following me since like 2021.
Starting point is 00:11:10 I didn't realize, wasn't there to invest. Hunting the air. Every once in a while, you leave a hundred bagger on the table. Live and learn, baby. Live and learn. Live and learn. But the funny thing, so the funny thing here, somebody quote posted this and said,
Starting point is 00:11:28 actually pumped up fund got to 500 million of actual net revenue in in a year. So you know, you have cursor, whiz, deal together, core weave, open AI, dockystein all taking a victory lap and then pumped up fun America's, you know, favorite illegal online casino doing 500 million in a year with, you know, a fraction of the team. I mean, we really got to do a deep dive. on a market map on these new coding agents because I don't know that this is a winner take all market at this point. I know there are a number of other companies that are doing really well. Cognition is growing a ton in a very different segment going for enterprise, the super up
Starting point is 00:12:14 market. And it'll be interesting to see how these all play out. There's, you know, Devin is building agents. Gerser's building a code editor. There's also what's that other one? Is it called tailwind? Yep. Tailwind's the CSS thing.
Starting point is 00:12:30 It's windsurf. Wind surf. Wind surf. You got pool side. Pool side. Yep. I actually read a thread. There's a whole breakdown
Starting point is 00:12:38 on all these different ones. They're all good for slightly different things. Some of them are focused on designers, front end. Some of them are focused on back end stuff. Julius Rahul Ligma's company, Rahul Sunwalker, is building kind of a cursor for data science.
Starting point is 00:12:55 It lives right in an iPhone. Python notebook. Obviously, there's things that you can do right within chat GPT. And so this market's evolving really fast, but it's super clear that if you're paying a developer six figures, getting them the best possible tools to amplify them and make their work go harder, faster, and just more enjoyable. Like everyone, everyone's always raving about, oh, like, it's so nice not to have to write boilerplate code because I have the agents now. And you're getting to that Andre Carpathie mindset of vibe coding, just kind of steering the AI. It's beautiful. And I think this is going to be a trend, not just in code development.
Starting point is 00:13:37 We're going to see these AI agents rollout for everything we saw this with Open AI deep research. We're going to see this in docs and spreadsheets and all sorts of financial modeling tools. And I'm just super excited to finally have some software that just has a really tangible impact. So congrats to the cursor team. Get out there. The one thing, you got to give DocuSign some credit here out of these companies. I think they're the first company to 300,000 employees. And so. Every time you mention DocuSign, you add another 50K employees.
Starting point is 00:14:07 I add a zero. I add a zero. At a zero every time. Docuzyne has as an amazing milestone across 10 million employees today. 10 million employees. It's so good. Okay. Well, let's move on to our deep dive for today.
Starting point is 00:14:24 Timu, we got cut off earlier. got a solid hour to break down Timu for you. It's a fascinating story. And it's one of the sloppiest abs out there right now. It's the cream of the crop. It's the slop of the slop. It's the slop of the slop. We'll get into why it's the slop of the slop. Let's start, let's go back in time first and talk about the founders. Incredible, you know, sort of history getting, getting to this point because he's really, he's really an absolute dog. Even though he's making slop. He's a dog, right? He's a dog. So you have it somewhere you want to start or you want me to dive in. Yeah, I mean, I wanted to start with these tweets just to kind of set the table. The first one is from
Starting point is 00:15:08 L3 tweet engineer, mega-based Chad. I think he's been on the show before. He said, just downloaded Timu. New users can sign up with Twitter. You're immediately greeted by a $250 coupon scam likely. The homepage is showing me fake sneakers, BDSM stuff. and a gun. I love it. This is from 2023. He was early. So Timo is a spinoff of Pinduoduo PDD,
Starting point is 00:15:36 which will break down the whole history here. But Timo was brand new. They launched in 2022, and then they rocketed to massive numbers very quickly. But I had the exact same experience where I opened up Timo to look at something, and it was like, you just won everything in the store for free. And it's just,
Starting point is 00:15:55 prices are suspended. To put this into perspective, I think a lot of people started to Timu hit their consciousness when they ran a Super Bowl ad. That's true. Early 2023, they ran this terrible ad that just said shop like a billionaire and it's just all these like slop products. Yep. And so, so yeah, I think he posted this because around, so this is probably 10 months after the initial Super Bowl ad, but they had gone, event, gone number one in the app store again. a lot of people signing up for the product when this was shared.
Starting point is 00:16:30 Yeah. So we'll go through the full history, but the Timu explosion is crazy. So they launched Timu, and it is a subsidiary, so the business is already going, but they launched it in September of 2022. I think the headquarters was in Boston, interestingly enough. And then they run a Super Bowl ad, and they're just spending billions of dollars advertising Timu. And by August of 2023, so less than one year, they had reached $18 billion in gross merchandise sales for the full year. Isn't that saying 15 million active users?
Starting point is 00:17:09 We are going to absolutely, we're going to be dunking on the sloth for the next hour, but I'm not here to take away from the execution. It's what they've done, they're selling absolute garbage, but what they've done is extremely impressive. You got to hand it to him. The founder's an absolute dog. And if he were in America still, we would be popping Dom Paranian for him. This guy is one of us. He just happened to be playing for the wrong team. So get back over here. And we'll break it down because this guy was in America for a while. And should have stayed here. Should have built the slop apps for us. Send him over there. So the reason this is at the top of everyone's news feed right now is because
Starting point is 00:17:53 recently there was a change in tariff structure that could put Timu and Sheen and these Chinese drop shippers effectively out of business. They've been exploiting a loophole. Let's break it down from Melissa Chen, who is quote tweeting Ryan Peterson. Ryan says, day minimis entries from China shut down effectively Tuesday. Melissa Chen says winning. This is huge. Timu, Sheen, and all these tacky fast fashion companies that sell mostly crap have long relied on an unfair and unwarranted trade advantage. They have long been beneficiaries of what's called the de minimis loophole.
Starting point is 00:18:28 This loophole allows goods to be shipped directly from overseas to American consumers so long as the value of each package is under $800 without any customs declaration. It's cheap, direct, untaxed, and unregulated. It's a law that existed since the 1930s, long before the internet and the existence of e-commerce retailers. Last year, the U.S. received a billion packages from China through this loophole. CBP cannot possibly inspect items at this scale. So things do slip through the crack, unsafe items, knockoffs, products made with forced
Starting point is 00:18:57 labor from Xinjiang. And yes, chemicals that can be used to make fentanyl. Wow. To put things in context, in 2022, Gap paid $700 million. While H&M paid $200 million in import taxes, Timo paid zero. Free trade, once again, is not free. It's flooding our markets with cheap, crappy, potentially toxic goods, gutting our own retail markets and allowing unsavory foreign competitors to exploit loopholes and gain unfair
Starting point is 00:19:22 competitive advantage over retailers who have to play by the rules because of geography. Now we have closed this loophole for goods coming into China. And Sean McGuire's there to say, great tweet. So we love to see breakdowns like that. But let's move on to the history of Pindoduo, PDD, and Timu and how we got here. So 2015, Colin Wang, who is working at Google, establishes Pinco. And let's give a little bit more backstory because he wasn't just working at Google. He went to college in the U.S., joins Google the year that they IPO.
Starting point is 00:20:05 Yep. So he literally joins at an incredible time, probably one of the best, the best pre-IPO company probably to join in history. incredible timing right out of school and and yeah so he he benefits right away he gets he basically immediately gets a bag from that which ends up helping him start his entrepreneurial journey he then goes on to actually launch uh launch google in china and so this was from you look back in my notes from 2006 to 2010 his he's the lead on launching google in china and it absolutely goes terribly. It doesn't really get adoption. I'm sure they're fighting a lot of sort of regulatory stuff internally in China. China didn't want U.S. tech products to get real market share in
Starting point is 00:20:57 China. And so by the end, he basically, in 2010, they just give up Google pulls out of China. And he and so in many ways, I'm sure he did well personally from that, but it wasn't exactly a huge win. But it did give him, you know, I'm sure high quality experience in terms of building the most scaled consumer products, you know, of all time. I mean, the guy seems like a great engineer, master networker. Somebody said, you know that Jeremy Giffon tweet that's like, if you're, you can basically post your way onto a private plane. If you're a good poster, like the most elite in the society, like the absolute aristocracy will just pluck you out of obscurity. And it seems like that's what happened. He was posting something or cold emailing or something and gets linked up to
Starting point is 00:21:46 effectively the Warren Buffett of China. And that guy becomes his mentor. And then that guy pays like 250K to have dinner with the actual Warren Buffett. And so there's a picture of Colin this Warren Buffett of China. Brings Colin, brings Colin the Timo founder. Yeah. This dinner. Yeah. And so very quickly, Colin is moved out of, you know, rank and file at Google, obviously early, obviously doing very well, but it's a huge organization. He's not really going to be able to steer that giant cruise ship to networking with both the Warren Buffet of America and the Warren Buffet of China. And that set himself up just to immediately raise tons of money and just do, you know, amazing things. Yeah. And so around this time he had built, this is prior to actually incorporating PDD in
Starting point is 00:22:37 in 2015, he had built, he had built some mobile shopping apps. So his time at Google had got him excited about shopping. He did all right from those. He had a couple exits. And then he starts a gaming studio, which is sort of foreshadowing for all the gamification of Timu and PDD that comes later. And the gaming studio is just thrown out absolute slop, too. So if you ever remember being a kid and getting ads for like Mafia City, that was a game that his game studio created, which was like an early version of one of these games that was meant to be highly addictive, that you were meant to come in. A lot of people would just come in and play for free briefly,
Starting point is 00:23:14 and then they'd get certain whales that would end up spending a ton of money. And he also had some less, less savory apps on there where you could build a harem of girlfriends that you could then go around and fight other people with. So you could build, it was like an app that you'd build your harem, and then you'd take them out and go on the attack. So Colin, Colin's an absolute dog for that one. Oh, yeah. But I'm sure he found some users.
Starting point is 00:23:42 And that company ended up getting acquired and then changed hands a couple of times. And Mafia City is actually still a game that you can download in the app store and use. Yeah. So go check it out. Yeah. Everything about this story is just unbelievable evidence that Colin plays hard nose, smash mouth, football on. the business grid iron. He's a Sackwan Barclay of business in China.
Starting point is 00:24:10 100%. And you don't become the richest man in China, even for a small amount of time, without being absolutely the most aggressive you can be and just maxing out every single loophole. There's a whole bunch of things in here about importing like gambling style mechanics and gamification and financialization.
Starting point is 00:24:32 And it's just like, let's do all of the most extreme business practices. What's the tariff loophole? How low quality can we go on the goods? Let's add gambling and buy now, pay later. It's just all the most extreme like dynamics to absolutely squeeze out every penny of performance from the business. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:24:54 So let's go through the timeline here. We'll focus just on PDD. So former Google engineer Colin Wang establishes Pindrodo in Shanghai as a social e-commerce platform focused on agriculture and group buying deals. Early angel funding of approximately $8 million is provided by Wang and other investors. And so the idea here was you, if you're in China and you're in like the middle or lower class, you want to buy a whole bunch of mangoes, they would focus on just, hey, you're going to buy 12 mangoes. Two of them might be rotten, but it's going to be so cheap that we're basically not going to invest in quality control at all.
Starting point is 00:25:34 And also they're bringing in this like social mechanic where group buying basically you, you click on the item you want. And then you send that link to everyone else in your social network on WeChat. And the more people that buy, the lower price, the lower the price goes. And this makes sense. I mean, in America, there's plenty of times where you buy one T-shirt, it's $30. You buy 10 T-shirts. It's $20.
Starting point is 00:26:00 If you're buying a thousand T-shirts, you can get the price down to $10. Yeah. But it's like, what if you could do this for anything on Amazon immediately just with your social network? And that creates insane growth. It's like this insane viral growth mechanism. Shopping has historically, and in the West, it still is primarily the single player experience. You go on, you buy the product. He turned it into this multiplayer experience that had this crazy viral loop of just building out these networks where one person wants mangoes and suddenly 20 people are buying mangoes. And one thing that they did, you can think of what PDD early on is similar.
Starting point is 00:26:33 to what Amazon did with books. Amazon picked books for very specific reasons. They onboarded sellers, which were bookstores and individuals that had books they wanted to sell. And what PDD did was, at the time in China, there were a ton, super, the sort of agricultural production in China was super fragmented. And so you had tons of individuals and small farms that would be producing goods. And they had to sell through distributors, which would then go into actual like retail stores and other markets that you could purchase them. And what PDD did was similar to Amazon where they said, hey, why don't you just come on
Starting point is 00:27:06 and list your product for sale and we'll find you the customers and you're going to make more money than you would if you were selling through this distributor. And they were basically like cutting out the historical middleman that was, there was two middlemen, basically. There was the distributor, the sort of rep,
Starting point is 00:27:22 and then the actual retail store. And so PDD took over both those roles in terms of bridging the farmers and producers and the end consumer. The other thing that PDD benefited from is that there was mobile devices had penetrated into the agricultural regions of China. And so farmers would start selling their products on social media using like videos. And I remember during this time, some of these videos would start going viral.
Starting point is 00:27:49 It'd be like, you'd be scrolling and you'd just, it'd just be some guys like, you know, like showing his mangoes off or whatever. You'd be like, all right, I'm the wrong side of the internet. But anyway, so this was like basically benefiting from social commerce, the influencer explosion, the explosion of, you know, mobile device usage all across China, not just in cities. And so the timing here he really, you know, benefited from. Yeah, yeah. It's fantastic, like product, lead growth, innovation, like a lot of trends coming together
Starting point is 00:28:23 and just wedging more and more things. And then just like rolling them out in the app super, super fast. Like when there's an exploit, he capitalizes, and that's, and that's what's fueled the growth so quickly. And another thing they did, they basically sold the product at cost. And so they've raised $8 million to get this thing off the ground. And they were fine if they didn't make any money on the direct sale. They just wanted market share. And they also took a more sort of asset light approach than some of the other players that actually owned logistics.
Starting point is 00:28:55 They owned warehouses and stuff like that. And so PDD was fully focused on like enabling this sort of direct-to-consumer model where, you know, producer would put, would list product on the platform. They had their own social presence. They had these group buying experiences, but then third-party logistics and warehouses would actually do all of the fulfillment. And so PDD could afford to basically sell products at cost without taking massive, massive losses that, for example, Amazon had to take, you know, really aggressive losses for quite a long time. Yeah, I mean, the Amazon versus TEMU or PDD comparison is crazy.
Starting point is 00:29:34 Take a look at this. So you can think about Amazon right now versus PDD. Amazon's almost 20 times the size. But in terms of net income, in 20, 23, Amazon produced 30 billion. PDD produced 8.5 billion. And so the margins are just the net profit margins at Amazon, 5%. versus 25%. And a lot of that comes down to
Starting point is 00:30:00 just super asset. Timu looks more like a software business and Amazon looks more like a grocery store, right? Totally. From a market profile standpoint. Totally. Yeah. And massive revenue growth.
Starting point is 00:30:12 Interestingly, I wanted to answer the question of like, is Timu actually putting pressure on Amazon? Has there been like a market change in Amazon's business because of the Timu threat? And what's interesting is that, like, I'm only like 95%, 98% of TEMU shoppers also shop on Amazon. The TEMU, like the slop that they're buying is actually additive. It's more like gambling money than actually shopping money. Because if you want just, you know, if you're actually in the market for like, I want Kleenex and I want it to be good and not fall apart and give me allergies or something.
Starting point is 00:30:49 Like you're going to go to Amazon buy the name brand and you can count on that. But if you're just want like, oh, yeah, some random thing that's like a funny joke. Like, yeah, I'll buy that on Timo. Yeah, I, my biggest frustration with Amazon is I wish that I could shop on Amazon by sorting only for brands that have existed for more than 50 years. Lindy filter. The Lindy filter. Because one of my, yeah, the greatest annoyance on Amazon is like I'm shopping and I want
Starting point is 00:31:20 something as simple as like a paper towel holder. And then I order it and I get it. And it's like the worst product that I've ever got. I'm like, this should just be a piece of metal into another piece of metal and it should be solid. And because of the hyper optimizations and all these sellers competing and things like that, you end up having to dig through pages. You might take you four pages to find a product that costs marginally more, but it's
Starting point is 00:31:45 going to last for 20 years versus the Tmu version, which will last for a year and not even function well. Dude, so Amazon has been forced to launch Amazon Hall, which is their Timo competitor, and they have price caps for items that you list on Amazon Hall because they want to be competitive. And the price caps are shocking. Like, $13 is the max price you can charge for a guitar. I think of a guitar is like a several hundred dollar purchase at least. Couches? Couches.
Starting point is 00:32:18 I think if a couch is like, you know, to get in the game, it's like $1,000. Maybe you go to IKEA a couple hundred bucks. The max price for a couch at Amazon Hall is $20. That's just like scarily low. I don't want to sit on a couch that's only $20. I know that there's people that are running Airbnbs right now that are like, this is amazing for my margins. Like I got to just buy this $20 couch.
Starting point is 00:32:40 But it's like at that price, it's like it feels dangerous. Like how can you possibly make a couch for $20? Like you're not even using wood at that point. Like what are you making it out of? And the dark side of the story is that many people have accused PDD and Timu of using slave labor. So if you trip out all the labor costs. Yep. But even then, it's still hard to kind of conceptualize how the actual material costs would be less than $20 for something as significant as a couch or a guitar being, you know, $13.
Starting point is 00:33:16 So anyways, let's get back into the timeline. Yeah. So they raise a bunch of money really, really quickly. They incorporate in 2015 with that $8 million round. 2016. They raise Series A, Series B, 110 million. Gowong Capital, formerly Banyan, does the seed stake. They get a 7% stake.
Starting point is 00:33:37 Now it's worth $10 billion. Nice. Tencent Holdings comes in and becomes a strategic investor. They get a 16% stake. That's $20 billion. Sequoia Capital, China. gets a 6% stake pre-2020, multi-billion dollar value.
Starting point is 00:33:55 And then there's a couple other founders and early executives that all made hundreds of millions of dollars. You already know from listening to this, but like this guy didn't come out of nowhere. He went to college in the US. Yep. Goes and works at Google actually leads an entire, you know,
Starting point is 00:34:10 go-to-market into China while at Google. Then as a couple smaller successes in mobile shopping, then launches a successful mobile game studio. And so by the time he's doing PDD, he is very well set up to take on this much capital and this short of a time because he's a savage operator, right? And the actual performance really backs it up. And so they're raising all this money, but it's on the back of just taking a ton of market share with a product that was very early for its time, right? We didn't see, you remember in 2021, 2022, every Western VC was talking about social. commerce and live streaming and all these things.
Starting point is 00:34:51 All of that was because that PDD was just dominating in China. And they didn't really, it's not that live streaming with T, it's TAMU, right? That would be the respectful way to call it. I call it Tmu. Timo. We'll stick with Timo. Who knows. Your disrespect.
Starting point is 00:35:12 What's crazy is I was actually, so I was in, I was living in China like during this era in 2016. and I was working at a startup accelerator that was and helping a company that was taking a bunch of international vendors, specifically in shopping and sort of luxury goods and trying to sell into China. Yep. And they had raised some funding. It was fine. But the CEO and the CTO and the CTO and the CEO were based in Israel. And they absolutely hated living in China.
Starting point is 00:35:47 and their entire business was based around China. So they would come in for like two weeks and then like bounce. And I was like, guys, like this is. I was just an intern, but I was like, yeah, this is, you shouldn't probably hate the country that you're trying to sell into. But anyways, meanwhile, Timo is just focused, you know, just absolutely dominant. Yeah, they're just ripping. So established in September 2015, they've raised over $100 million by 2016.
Starting point is 00:36:14 Series C comes in early 2017, less than a year and a half. They raised $213 million in a Series C round. And by late 2017, their gross merchandise volume, their GMV, reaches $15 billion just two years after launch. And so even with super slim margins, they're well over $100 million in ARR. And this is one of the fastest growing companies and businesses in history.
Starting point is 00:36:40 And of course, that's going to rock at the stock. So they do a pre-IPO funding in April of 2018. They raise $1.2 billion series D led by major investors. They're valued around $15 to $20 billion. And then July 26th, 2018, they go public on the NASDAQ raising $1.6 billion. The IPO values the company at $24 billion and marks its rise to over 340 million active buyers in under three years. But then things get tricky. There's a counterfeit crackdown shortly after the IPO.
Starting point is 00:37:16 PDD faces scrutiny over counterfeit and pirated goods. So you'd just go on there and you'd get some complete knockoff that was just made in a fake factory that wasn't actually made by that company. Of course, companies are going to be upset. At one point, Amazon has a price match like service where if you are selling on Amazon and then you open, you go over to Walmart and you undercut Amazon, Amazon will not give you the buybox. They won't let you win the top slot if you're not price matching on Amazon. But Tamu or Timu was so aggressive and so sloppy that they couldn't basically implement this process. And they were like, look, we're not even going to enforce it with Temu-Timu products because it's just, it's just slop.
Starting point is 00:38:00 It's not even close. And so a lot of stuff was just absolute junk. And that was kind of the model. And also everyone kind of knew that. Those products were widely available when I was in Shanghai. you could go to, there were specific markets that, where they would have retail stores, it'd be like the Nike store, the Adidas store, the Canada store, and everything in them was 95% less than like the traditional retail value. Yeah. And about 60% is good. Yeah. But the demand you can
Starting point is 00:38:31 imagine for sort of name brands that are 95% off effectively. It's insane. So the super funny thing here is that it's not just American companies versus Chinese versus PDD in China. There's actually Chinese companies that are like, hey, we're Foxconn, we make iPhones for Apple, like don't make fake iPhones here. Like this is this is screwing us and we're a Chinese company. And so Chinese companies are accusing PDD of counterfeiting and pirating goods that they're making and selling on Amazon. And so there's an
Starting point is 00:39:04 investigation by China's market regulator and this leads PDD to purge four 4.3 million suspect listings and tighten its policies, but of course, like, how long would that last? And so in January of 2019, there's the security incident where hackers exploit systems, a systems loophole to steal tens of millions of yuan and discount vouchers. This always happens whenever there's like some referral program or some discount program. I remember there was some guy on Twitter who's bragging about basically defrauding Uber Eats with like all these referral tokens, just getting people on mechanical Turk to sign up and get him money. And he was like, I have free Uber Eats forever. And I was like, you shouldn't publish about this. This is a violation
Starting point is 00:39:45 of the terms of the service. Also, it's also just wrong. It's also just morally wrong to steal. How have we gotten so lost here? And so PDD cooperates with authorities to apprehend the perpetrators and patched systems. They continue to expand their markets in 2019. The gamified team purchase model drives explosive growth, making PDDD's China's third largest e-commerce site by GMV and active buyers. So it's Alibaba and then JD.com, which I don't think is related to J.D. Vance, but it's certainly a big beast over there. By the end of the year, the platform approaches over 500 million active buyers, so they are on a tear. Then early 2020, the agriculture focus and COVID response, amid the pandemic, PDD doubles down on its agricultural roots by launching programs to help
Starting point is 00:40:37 rural farmers sell produce online. This is huge because China had insane lockdowns. Everyone is ordering online more than ever, especially produce, especially groceries. People need to get food more than anything else. And so it's another explosive growth period for PDD. They just can't miss. Then in 2020, Colin Wang steps down as CEO, appointing Chen Lee as the new chief. as the new chief executive while remaining chairman to focus on long-term strategy and research.
Starting point is 00:41:05 And I think there's something going on where the pressure is starting to build. PGD is becoming a more controversial company. And Colin's like, yeah, I'm going to dip before I get Jack Maude, you know. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Because like, yeah, when you scrape the heavens in China and you become the richest man, you get a little bit of a target on your back. So you got to just pivot into, you know, teach in English somewhere and resting on your laurels a little bit a little bit it's a dangerous dangerous position it's a dangerous game over there you
Starting point is 00:41:37 become the richest man you don't exactly get to be the right-hand man of the person who runs the country unfortunately yeah america's just built different you know yeah over here you get a you get a dot-gov email address yes uh and so economic challenges in late 2020 drive more consumers to pin to pdd for affordable essentials with annual active buyers reaching $585 million by year end. Yeah, they have this, they have this interesting demand dynamic where if the economy is doing well, then people have like a bunch of extra cash that they're willing to just blow on basically Slop.
Starting point is 00:42:14 TDD is like slop, you know, gambling on consumer goods. Hey, I'm buying this product for $3. Maybe it's good. Maybe it's actually fine. Yep. You don't know. And then simultaneously, if the economy is not doing well, there's also an increased demand because people are saying, I don't want to.
Starting point is 00:42:30 You know, it'd be like saying, I don't want to go shop at Target. I'm going to go to this like discount store and because I can spend $50 and get a lot more for my money. So same dynamic as somebody might be saying, I'm not going to go on Alibaba or some or the Chinese, you know, target equivalent. I'm going to go on PDD and just get more for my money. Yeah. And so in January 2021, there's this work culture controversy. This is terrifying and very sad. the deaths of two employees within a short span spark public outcry over the brutal 996
Starting point is 00:43:03 overtime culture in China's tech industry. And I believe someone affiliated with the company made some callous comment being like, yeah, like we work hard. People are going to die, which is obviously way too far, way over the line. And the founder eventually steps down. Colin Wang resigns his chairman and leaves the board to pursue research and food and life sciences while CEO Chen Li or lay assumes the chairman role after Wang relinquishes super voting rights. That's the Chinese equivalent of I'm going to go spend time, you know,
Starting point is 00:43:36 long overdue time with my family is I'm going to sue research in life sciences. Yeah. It is, it is crazy to work people to death. That's unacceptable and something that only happens in China, unfortunately. I mean, that's not that's not true. We just had that, we just had that issue. I forget which bank. It wasn't. Yeah, I did see that. Jeffrey, and it wasn't Jeffries. No, I've been seeing that. But no, there was, you know, a investment banker. A young investment banker
Starting point is 00:44:03 that was being worked, you know, basically 20 hours a day for a long period of time and was telling his friends, like, that he wasn't doing well, and then just died from basically overworking. It's not good. Anyways, yeah. And in that case, the investment bank had slides that said that were basically promoting the fact
Starting point is 00:44:24 that their associates were available around the clock. Yeah. And so, again, it's not just a China thing, but, but yeah, work, it's possible to work too much. Yeah, I mean, it's like we always say, you got to, like Naval says, work like a lion. There are days when you should be working 20 hours a day, but if it's 20 hours a day for years straight with no days off, you're going to burn out. That's not good. Or even four weeks in a row, right?
Starting point is 00:44:51 Yeah. not sustainable at a certain point. Sprints here and there. Super important. We are working up to, we are working up to 140 hours of content a week. Our goal is to get there. So thank you,
Starting point is 00:45:05 thank you everybody for your patience for trying to just ramp up to it. Yeah. And so in May of 2021, Shanghai's Consumer Council criticized PDD for issuing fake products, false advertising, and poor after sales service.
Starting point is 00:45:19 Regulators order the company to rectify consumer rights problems, prompting PDD to pledge stronger merchant oversight. In late August of 2021, PDD posts its first ever profitable quarter. So from 2015 to 2021, just six years, now they're profitable, 2 billion yuan operating profit and an 89% year-on-year revenue jump. So they're still basically doubling six years into the business. Just fantastic growth. Instead of taking the profits is cash. The company announces a $10 billion, 10 billion yuan agriculture initiative to reinvest in agri-tech, farmer support, and rural development. And so in 2022, one thing that
Starting point is 00:46:01 might sound strange to some people, but we think of TEMU as just like slop consumer goods. In China, people are still using it very actively to buy produce and things like that. So they want to invest in actual agriculture industry in China. because PDD's China business specifically is a grocery store alternative. It's not just these, you know, ultra low cost consumer goods. Yeah. And so they are continuing to grow. The platform is now handling $4.9 trillion yuan, about $590 billion in GMV and generating annual revenue of roughly $14.7 billion U.S. dollars, solidifying its profits. And with all this money, they come to the United States and they launch TEMU.
Starting point is 00:46:54 The parent company now PDD Holdings launches TEMU, a discount shopping app targeting overseas markets because it's specifically taking advantage of that tariff loophole. Timu goes live in the United States offering ultra low priced goods shipped directly from China and quickly climbs the download charts. And I think this is so interesting because I've been in e-commerce for 15 years or something now. And the wisdom has always been, you've got to get on prime. You've got to be faster with shipping. Everyone cares about page load speed and shipping time. And Americans are willing to pay for that. And Colin just realized that there is a contrarian position here, which is, hey, maybe there's
Starting point is 00:47:39 certain products and certain segments of the American market where people are more than happy to trade fast shipping for lower prices. And so no one who's really looking at. It comes down to a value exchange thing. I'm happy to pay slightly more to get a product tomorrow with zero effort on my side. And then on the other end, there's people that are happy to wait a week to get something if they're going to get 10 items for the cost of two items, right? Exactly.
Starting point is 00:48:06 So it's a value exchange thing. Yeah, yeah. But it was really, really overlooked in the e-commerce market. And so with the launch of TEMU, the company reorganizes under PDD holdings, a new holding structure encompassing both PDD and TEMU. In December, fast fashion rival Sheen initiates legal action against Timu, marking the start of a high profile legal tussle. And I didn't know this. Do you know where the name Sheen comes from? It's She in. And it's like, she's in. She's in. Yeah, like, she's in. They were sitting in Shanghai being like, yeah,
Starting point is 00:48:45 we got the name. This is it. This is so cool. And this also, by the way, just to reference an earlier point, so this is like right around the time that they launched the Super Bowl ad that we mentioned yesterday. And I do remember the, not yesterday, sorry, earlier in the show. I do remember when that ad dropped. And I remember seeing it live, thinking to myself, this is the worst ad I've ever seen. It's like very, it's not westernized at all. This is obviously Western audience. It has this tagline that says shop like a billionaire, which felt, felt super out of touch. Yep. But ultimately, I wasn't the target audience for it.
Starting point is 00:49:24 I've never purchased anything on Timo. And if you think about that concept of shop like a billionaire, some people are thinking, okay, billionaires are just buying like, you know, infinite amount of goods at all points and not caring about the price. And that is the experience that they provide, right? You can go on there and buy 30. items and it'll cost you, you know, the same price as, I don't know, a small like grocery. The funny thing is if you ever go over to billionaire's house, like, it's always like the most sparsely populated house.
Starting point is 00:49:58 Like it's not just junk everywhere. Like, yeah, it's because their items are spread across like at least five homes. I guess. But even then, it's like, you know, most super rich people are pretty pretty discerning with like, do I really need another kitchen aid? no. No, it's the Kanye thing of, I was sleeping on the plane and I woke up next to this water bottle. And it's like, great. Now I have to look after this water bottle. What do I do with this water bottle? Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. And really, it's like, we talked about this before. But like the thing with the billionaires is like when you're, when you're like middle class, like you have an item and you do it yourself. Like you cook for yourself. When you become a little bit wealthier, you have an app that, you know, DoorDash brings you the food. And when you're a billionaire, you have a guy. And it's your chef.
Starting point is 00:50:45 And so, no, a billionaire does not buy any kitchen cooking equipment ever because the cook handles that. And they don't even think about any of those items. And there's that for every single item in their life. You have a personal shopper who brings you 50 items. You try them on and you keep seven of them. You know my size. Just make sure that there's clothes in my closet in every house.
Starting point is 00:51:07 Yeah. And that's the lifestyle. And so did you see the SNL spoof of the Super Bowl ad? we got to stay on the Super Bowl ad because one interesting fact is that Super Bowl ad was not shot for the Super Bowl. That was the ad that they had been promoting on YouTube to millions of people. That ad, before it aired on the Super Bowl, had millions of ads. So in one way, they'd kind of A-B tested it and knew that that ad worked.
Starting point is 00:51:34 But at the other way, it's like super, it's still just super lean culture. They're like, oh, yeah, we got a Super Bowl slot. We're paying millions of dollars like, we don't need to shoot something special for this or get a celebrity. let's just run the ad that we've been posting on Facebook for the last, like, like, two, six months. It's very counter to the approach, again, that many, many of their competitors, which would take, which is, hey, Amazon is going to spend is probably planning their 2027 Super Bowl ad now. And it's this multi-year thing and they want to try to win awards. And Timo is just like, shop like a billionaire, baby. Yep, yep, yep.
Starting point is 00:52:07 Budweiser is going to shoot a new Clydesdale ad, probably three of them for this. for this Super Bowl, and it's going to tell a story, and it's going to be heritage, and it's going to be very cinematic. And Timo's just like, yeah, like, what's working on Google right now? Oh, okay, like just throw that. Oh, it's new ad slot. Throw it up. Yeah, no problem.
Starting point is 00:52:27 Again, kind of beautiful. I don't know. I think it kind of worked for them. I bet they got good ROI on that. But the S&L spoof is hilarious. They call it, it's like some portmanteau, between Timu and Sheen, it's like, it's like Shimu or something like that. And it's like, dress, $10, shoes, $5, working conditions, fine, don't ask about it.
Starting point is 00:52:53 And they're just like, how is it so cheap? And it's like now with no lead. And they're like, that makes me feel like there might be lead in here. Like the whole idea of like suspiciously low prices is so funny to me. I just can't get enough of it. It's like at a certain point, like $20 couch raises more question. that it answers. Yeah, and to be honest, there's a very real scenario where Colin realized that he was going to be the fall guy for China would say, actually, there's so much evidence that China uses
Starting point is 00:53:25 slave labor and they have labor camps and, you know, it's very dark. But Colin would have been the perfect guy to pin it all on for the CCP to be like, oh yeah, actually this was happening. And like, here's the guy. He was the guy selling all these cheap products and like it was on him. even if they had fully endorsed it. And so I think, yeah, he, so far, it seems like he properly avoided being Jack Maud. But I haven't seen him on any podcasts lately. So, you know. Let's get him on 20-minute VC.
Starting point is 00:53:58 Colin, Colin, come on X. Go on 20VC. Let's do it. I'll have you on the show. Yeah. Yeah, we'll get to the bottom of this. You might be a little contentious, but. So they launch in September of 2020.
Starting point is 00:54:12 by February of 23, six months later, Super Bowl ad, number one shopping app in the U.S., massive growth. They expand their market presence.
Starting point is 00:54:24 They launch in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand in March. Then they launch in all of Europe. And they also relocate their headquarters, I think, to Dublin, Ireland. And then in March of
Starting point is 00:54:39 2023, shortly after the Super Bowl ad, they get suspended from the Google Play Store due to malware found in off-store versions. Although TEMU is unaffected, the incident raises security concerns, and the app is later reinstalled after, reinstated after necessary fixes. And so they were doing some sort of exploit with like, you know, the APIs and the app. And everyone's like, man, these guys are playing dirty. Yeah, I mean, Nikita Beer would be proud. Across the board, this is a company. that undoubtedly does not care about anything
Starting point is 00:55:17 other than flooding the market, gaining market share and growing, right? Of course, many American companies at the end of the day are like that too, but they're a little bit less blatant about this. Like the entire history of PDD and TEMU is issues around counterfeiting, supply chain practices, labor practices, data privacy. Like this is a company that probably is battling like a thousand, to 10,000 lawsuits at once continuously.
Starting point is 00:55:46 So while they're not making U.S. ad agencies money on Super Bowl ads, I'm sure their legal bills back home are steep. And I'm sure they're a good client to some U.S. law firms that have to. And again, they're fighting other Chinese companies. So Timo and Sheen are in a legal battle in July of 2023. Timu filed an antitrust lawsuit in the U.S. accusing Sheen of market abuse, while Sheen secures a temporary restraining order against Timu over alleged copyright infringements. Legal actions as sue across multiple jurisdictions.
Starting point is 00:56:21 What do they call this? Slop on slop violence. Slop on slop violence. I love it. And it's so funny because. Yeah. The great slop wars of the 2020s. The great slop wars.
Starting point is 00:56:35 It's so funny to me because like even though like we're looking at this through a business context, through a geopolitical, and obviously we have the take that, you know, this is exploitative. There's a loophole. It's destroying American businesses, et cetera. But there are tens of millions of Americans that, to them, Timo is just, oh, cool, I get stuff for cheap. Like, I like it.
Starting point is 00:56:59 And no, I don't run a competitive company. I don't have an e-commerce business. So it doesn't affect me. And the number of people, the number of constituents in the American democracy that are being negatively affected by Timo is in, in. absolute terms much lower. Because if you're like the number of people that are competing and getting their lunch eight by Timo is probably a million e-commerce people that work in e-commerce or, you know, drop shipping or something like that. But the number of people that benefit is in the tens of millions.
Starting point is 00:57:27 And so it is the same thing. Yeah, but it's more, I got to push back there. Please. It is more complicated than that. If somebody, you know, is shopping for, they, they decide, hey, I want a water filter. and they look at, they go to aurora.com. They're like, this looks great. They've got all the certifications. And then they look on TEMU and they see, you know, a similar water filter. Maybe it works. Maybe it doesn't.
Starting point is 00:57:55 But it's 90% less and then they buy that. That is dollars that could have gone to an American company that supports, you know, a bunch of other American businesses and manufacturers. It supports, you know, a team here in the U.S. And so it is very complicated. And so we have no idea how many billions of dollars of Timo's GMV would have just gone to America. You know, it would have bought in less products. I completely agree.
Starting point is 00:58:19 It has a bunch of downstream effects. Yeah, I completely agree. I'm merely making the statement that for a lot of Americans, they are addicted to consumerism. They're addicted to shopping. And they don't think about the second and third order effects of, hey, if I'm really supporting this app and buying. Yeah, yes, I am getting these really cheap products, but maybe it'll make it harder for me to find a job. or maybe my town will be hollowed out because they're because the bit just the economy is not there anymore in the US because we're just purely an import-based society. So I think that's the back
Starting point is 00:58:51 of the tariff renegotiation is is this a fair deal for America? Yeah. What were you saying? I was going to say, well, if we eliminate Timo and Sheen and we just get every American addicted to buying cheap stocks, there we go. Potential there. Massive, massive. Buying early. Yeah. Awesome. And so in 20, 24, they're in 50 countries in 16 months. On January 17th, Timu officially launches in South Africa, marking its 49th country since debuting in the U.S. Its footprint now expands over North America, Europe, Asia, Oceania,
Starting point is 00:59:29 and parts of Latin America in the Middle East. So they are willing to ship anywhere. And the reason they can do this is because it's so asset light. All they need to do is just allow, there's just a software platform that allows factories in China to ship as soon as they can get those packages to the ports, they can really go anywhere. So they just need to localize the website and they're good. It's not like Amazon where they have to set up in local distribution center, hire local drivers. There's really nothing. And it's not really building up the local economies. It's actually
Starting point is 01:00:00 hollowing it out. And so in February of 2024, they do another Super Bowl and they hit user records again. they offer $15 million of giveaways at the Super Bowl, and early in 2024, the platform announces it has surpassed 100 million active users in the United States and over 130 million app downloads globally. So, yeah, 100 million people in the U.S. have chopped on TEMU, and that is a big constituency. What I'm getting at is like it's similar to TikTok, where the number of people that are negatively affected by TikTok are the people that are thinking about,
Starting point is 01:00:31 you know, security, cybersecurity, geopolitics, thinking about, competitive dynamics with American companies, but there are still 100 million people that are just like, TikTok is where I go for entertainment, don't turn off my TV channel. And so it is this complicated, there is a constituency there.
Starting point is 01:00:49 They're not highly politically active. They don't donate to politics in that way. But if you just, if you just pulled the American people, should you ban Timu? A lot of people would say, no, I like cheap stuff. It's fine.
Starting point is 01:01:00 It's where I spin a wheel and get free stuff. Like, why are you banning my fun thing? And that's all. It's in the same way that Pump Fun is a digital casino. You could see, you know, PDD or TMO is like a carnival, right? Where it's just like, yeah, I'm like spinning the wheel. I'm winning. It's entertainment.
Starting point is 01:01:20 It's social. It's, you know. Yep. And so the company refines its logistics model to manage scale while PDD holdings faces increased regulatory scrutiny over counterfeiting supply chain practices and data privacy and the legal battles between Timu and Sheehan have continued into 2024. Today, in less than a decade, PDD's parent company has become a global e-commerce powerhouse, which includes Pindro in China and Timu abroad, reported $34.7 billion in revenue and $8.5 billion in net income in
Starting point is 01:01:54 2023. I'm sure it's higher in 2024. I don't know if they've done earnings yet, though. PDD remains one of China's top online shopping destinations with over 800 million. users that is staggering. That's what? It's a billion person country. So that's like massive market penetration while TEMU's low prices and viral marketing have captured significant international market share. The company continues to navigate rapid growth, fierce competition, and regulatory challenges as it looks to the future. And so we will be staying on top of that. One thing that's interesting. So they have the benefit of, so TEMU at some point, do you have the the specifics, but I believe they rolled back in TEMU, which was independently listed into the main
Starting point is 01:02:40 PDD holdings. And so the original TEMU that went public on the NASDAQ is now just a part of PDD holdings, correct? Yeah, that's right. And so the benefit of that is like even under all this scrutiny lawsuits, all this stuff, you're going to be shocked. I'm on public right now. The stock is up. How much is? How much is? it up. Give me the data. Give me the public. So they're sitting at a the PDD holdings is sitting at $11.11 right now. Wow. And it was in March of 2022, it was sitting at like $40 a share. So they're still like a juggernaut and have done tremendously well just again under fire from all these lawsuits and things like that and being, but they just steamrolling the market. And I think
Starting point is 01:03:35 that's really, in many ways because of that, you know, they truly are a software company. They're not a, they're not a retail. 100%. Let's go through who got rich off of this. I think that's always an interesting question to ask. Obviously, the early team made a ton of money. There was an interesting transaction where the, as in 2020, Colin Wang transferred. $7.7 billion worth of shares to the partners, effectively giving slices of his fortune to the top lieutenants. I thought that was very interesting that he did that after the fact.
Starting point is 01:04:16 Like they'd already grown. Obviously they had stock grants early on, but he was just like, I've made so much money. I'm just going to hook up the boys. He's either an absolute, you know, brother of the week, and he's brother of the weak potential, or they were all going to throw him under the bus so hard that they said if you don't give me,
Starting point is 01:04:35 If you don't give us billions of dollars, like you're going to be the fall guy for all of this, and we're going to, you know, drag you through the streets. Yeah. Jack Ma style. Yeah. The dynamics over there are very, very hard to get right. So Garong Capital, formerly Banyan Capital, was an early VC investor. It's a Beijing-based VC firm.
Starting point is 01:04:59 They led the Series A round. And Jen Jong, Gaoang's founding partner, first back Colin by leading an 8 million. dollar investment round when PDD was just an idea. This gave them an 8% stake pre-IPO. It was probably a higher round and then got diluted down a little bit. Tencent came in and they were able to leverage WeChat as to fuel PDD's growth. Tencent joined in the series B and later led a huge $1.4 billion series D in early 2018. And so they had 16% at IPO. Sequoia Capital China led by by Neil Shen. They've since rebranded to Hongshan. By the time of the IPO, Sequoia was principal shareholder, even agreeing to purchase 150 million shares at IPO to support the listing.
Starting point is 01:05:48 Sequoia's stake post-IPO was on the order of 6 to 7 percent. In March of 2021, Sequoia Capital still held 6.4 percent of PDD. And so they are just printing over there. Sequoia Capital. Sequoia China is really the Sequoia of China. You can't make it up. IDG Capital is one of China's oldest VC firms. They were investors during the growth phase. They participated in the Series C round. New Horizon Capital was a PE fund that went in the Series B. And then Lightspeed China also got a bite of the Series B, which was 110 million. And there's a couple other investors here. So massive wealth creation event for Chinese VCs and American VCs. that had Chinese arms at the time. So it's a very fascinating story. Yeah, completely crazy
Starting point is 01:06:39 story, incredible execution. Yep. They will talk about the slop wars of the 2020s for, you know, decades to come. And open invite, Colin, come on the show anytime. We'll put you in the truth zone a little bit on the data privacy, labor, supply chain crises, things like that. but if you're ready for that yeah you want to take some heat yeah but we will also sing your praises for massive wealth creation we'll pop a bottle of creation on with you we'll hit the size gong it'll be a mix it'll come out it'll come out positive yeah yeah yeah it won't be a puff piece it'll be hard nose but we will we will ask you about the wegers yep we got now yeah we'll also ask you what kind of car you drive and and what and what we're kind of watch and if you have mansion you're building and and how many watches
Starting point is 01:07:31 you bought on Bezell. Yeah. It'll probably be the best interview you'll ever do. It'll be great. Come on. Well, let's move on to the timeline. Thanks, everyone, for sticking around for our Timu deep dive. We got another, oh, we got a solid 40 minutes of timeline today.
Starting point is 01:07:46 This is great. Very excited. Let's kick it off with this post from restructuring day in the life and an investor at U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund. Hate to admit it, but sometimes Wall Street Oasis has some hilarious content. And Jordy, you threw this in the feed. Why'd you like it? Well, so backstory, they did an executive order to create a U.S.
Starting point is 01:08:08 sovereign wealth fund. So Trump signed this, I think a couple of days ago at this point. A lot of people are speculating on what's going to go in it. A lot of people, you know, a friend of this show, Jack Raines, said, we already have a sovereign wealth fund. It's called spy. But anyways, I just thought this was hilarious. So I'll read it.
Starting point is 01:08:27 So this is somebody who's an analyst in private credit. He says, at 7 a.m., I wake up in my Georgetown apartment to a text for my M.V. Need a deck on strategic lithium reserves by noon. Use the DoD template. I have no idea what that means, but I nod, sit my government-subsidized coffee, and I get to work. By 8.30 a.m., I'm at my desk in the Eisenhower executive office building, surrounded by former golden guys who rebranded as patriotic investors. Our mandate deploy one trillion of taxpayer money into high-priority national interests.
Starting point is 01:08:55 In reality, we're larping his P.E. Bros. while writing checks to companies with more lobbyists than revenue. By 10 a.m., I have an IC meeting. The Secretary of Commerce dials in asking why we aren't buying up more farmland. The MD replies, sir, we already own 15% of Iowa. And then I get cut off there, but... We nod solemnly, America first. I'll keep reading.
Starting point is 01:09:17 Lunch is catered from the White House mess hall. I sit next to a guy from the Pentagon's AI readiness task force. He assures me that investing $500 million into a surveillance drone startup run by a 24-year-old Stanford dropout is critical for national security. I write synergies in my notes and take a bite of my taxpayer-funded stake. By 3 p.m., we're structuring a bailout for a failing EV battery company. Treasury wants it to be alone, but the MD insists on pref equity with board seats. We're not just capital. We're strategic. Everyone nods, except for the one career bureaucrat who still thinks this is about fiscal responsibility. At 6 p.m., I'm working on a term sheet for an emergency lithium mining
Starting point is 01:09:53 JV with some guys in Wyoming. The deal terms, equity upside, mineral rights, and a direct line to the Fed for liquidity. Somewhere, Larry Fink sheds a single tear of pride. By 9 p.m., the interns are arguing whether we should issue high-yield bonds back by military surplus. Someone jokes about tokenizing Social Security. Everyone laughs, but someone writes it down.
Starting point is 01:10:13 At 11.30 p.m., I close my laptop and stare at the framed photo of Teddy Roosevelt in my office. I realize I'm no longer just a finance guy. I'm a statesman. This is the most prestigious exit. This is paradise. This is paradise. Yeah, so anyways, this would be applying,
Starting point is 01:10:28 you know, if tech is Doge, the sovereign wealth fund is going to be all the, all the P.E. brothers just, just having a heyday. I think it's cool. I think it's cool to think about. We'll see how it plays out. Obviously, the BTC Maxis say that the sovereign wealth fund should just be a trillion dollars of Bitcoin. And I wouldn't be surprised if that kind of stuff got in. But it is funny how these, if there was a sovereign wealth fund, I imagine that it would ultimately be Trump as playing Masa, where people come and pitch him crazier and crazier, bigger and bigger ideas. Because that's what happens.
Starting point is 01:11:07 In many ways, that's what happens. And if you're going to try to raise, you know, a billion dollars from Saudi Arabia for some project, MBS will at that ticket price, MBS probably has to like verbally sign off on the deal, right? Maybe he's not taking the pitch meeting, but, you know, these, anytime. you're raising money from what's effectively a kingdom, the king's got to sign off or he's got a guy who is, you know, responsible for making sure that they don't do anything silly. But then when you're playing with dollars of that size, you end up doing, you know, he's jokes about giving a 24 year old
Starting point is 01:11:44 $500 million. But, you know, it's only 50 basis points of the fund. You know, why not just, or no, even less. Even less. Crazy. This is so funny to me because like the idea, I'm very pro the idea of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund, but our country is in massive debt. Like, we don't have a surplus right now. We don't have money to put into a sovereign wealth fund, I think. I don't know where it would come from. We need to pay down our debt first, right? World runs on leverage. So. Yeah, I don't know. All the rules have been thrown out. It's a new day. Anything is possible. But good to see some analysts having fun on Wall Street Oasis. Let's move on to Lulu. Lulu writes, a good slogan is critical for starting a movement. Make America great again.
Starting point is 01:12:34 Yes, we can. Time to build. No taxation without representation. Keep calm and carry on. Move fast and break things. Just do it. Workers of the world unite. Think different. The best slogan is one that gets stuck in people's heads and represents one central idea. And this is quote tweeting Emmett, former CEO of Twitch. This is the way you influence large language models or a bunch of humans is not by writing persuasive prose, but by coining new words or phrases, which are useful and also make it easier to think certain thoughts over others. And she actually tagged me in this. She said, this is Coogan's Law. And I was super excited to see Coogan's Law going viral on the timeline once again. I'm very proud of that coinage.
Starting point is 01:13:15 I stand by it. I think it's extremely valuable. I need to coin some more. Dordie, give me your take on this and then I'll riff a little bit more. I don't have much more to add here. I think you know, we're just big proponents of coining, you know, coining constantly iterating, you know, attempt to coin things. You're not always going to be successful. But, you know, when you hit something, when you hit it like Kugin's Law, I mean, that's a, that's a billion dollar coinage right there. It is.
Starting point is 01:13:41 And I was actually giving this, I was giving this advice to a GP who reached out to me and said they were writing a piece on the intersection of these three trends. and my primary advice was you need to condense it down into five to six words max so that you can if that if these trends play out in the way that you think they will that you will get credit for sort of creating that and sort of encapsulating that trend and something that is memorable and something that can sort of live on and so Brody here says you know calls this out well Brian Johnson has done this incredibly well with Don't Die, two words that that sort of encapsulate his movement and everything that he stands for. So always be coining. Always be coining. I mean,
Starting point is 01:14:33 Peter Thiel did this with zero to one, but also he popularized the idea of the power law, which was really like it's obviously he didn't create that, but he popularized that in the venture term. And owning a coinage and popularizing a coinage is super valuable. I actually looked up all the different ways you can coin a phrase around your name. So Coogan's Law is out there already. We're working on Hayes Law, Jordie's Law. The Hayes Paradox is coming soon, dropping soon. That's when you find something so funny. It's so funny that you're literally laughing at your own joke and then no one else finds it funny. Yeah. You got to post that. I think that's good. I think that can live on. But you have multiple shots on goals. So we can get Hayes Law, Hayes Paradox,
Starting point is 01:15:19 effect, Hayes principle, Hayes razor, the Hayes trap, the Hayes critique, the Hayes syndrome, the Hayes equation, and the Hayes wager. Because Lulu didn't put going direct on here, which is her, her, uh, coined. Well, she didn't coin that. Really? She popularized it. And this is another thing about the Coogan, Coogan's law, there's also Coogan's paradox, which is that oftentimes the person that popularizes the coinage.
Starting point is 01:15:49 accrues more value than the person who actually does the coining. Yeah, that's funny. I always thought she created it. No, no, I think it might have come from Bologi or someone else. She also gets credit because she helps so many companies now do the thing, which is going direct. Totally. Yeah, and coining truly is not coining is not just coming up with the phrase. It's also doing the work to popularize it and beat that drum. And I can tell that people are, people are circling around Coogan's Law ideas. And if I don't stake my claim with a banger every week or every month, reasserting my ownership over that meme, it will get twisted and re-popularized and I will lose it. And I've been talking to Solano about this with Moon should be a state. He has a great phrase. And you can see that as this gets bigger and bigger,
Starting point is 01:16:38 this movement could move beyond him and someone else could take it. And all of a sudden, he's no longer the Moon state guy. And that would be a huge loss. I want to keep it in the Salana. Yeah, the risk, the risk for him is that, is that there's two people that could really take that. Elon and Trump. Yep. Positive thing is if you get your phrase taken from one of those people, you still get to be infamous for, you know, creating a movement. Totally, totally. And so did you see this mattress drama?
Starting point is 01:17:08 We have to cover it. Mattress drama on the timeline. Mattress drama on the timeline. To me, the drama here was that it was an air mattress and not eight sleep. she wouldn't have caught this kind of shade if she was shown off her pod four ultra on the floor. But I think San Francisco's so normalized to the fact that high performers sleep on eight sleeps that you can't really be taken seriously in San Francisco if you're not on an eight sleep. I'm very excited to launch, officially launch our eight sleep partnership very soon.
Starting point is 01:17:42 But on that note, I thought it was funny because she clearly, I think it was like one person that just like dunked on her and then like kicked off this entire firestorm. I thought her original post was totally fine. She said. Yeah, she's funny. She's clearly joking. Yeah, she's joking and like she's having fun and she's like playing into the culture. But, um, but I think people saw it a little bit as stolen valor, you know?
Starting point is 01:18:06 It's like, uh, you're a VC. The mattress on the floor has been reserved for, you know, the struggling founder of the John Coogan in 2010. and sleeping on a mattress with 200 bucks a month to spend on, you know, food. So anyways, she says day two learnings, VCs are hated in SF. And people think that their junior VC job is a lot more glamorous than it is. It's not, L.O.L. Another great reminder to focus on what you love or is being concerned with external validation. I don't think the second point.
Starting point is 01:18:38 I think she kind of missed the point. I don't think VCs are hated. I think that, I don't think anybody thinks that junior VCs are so glamorous. It's more so that unless you're working for the world's smallest microfund, like you're probably making an okay income and you don't have any risk of, am I going to run out of money, you know, in three months? And so anyways, Megan, Megan dunks on her again and says VCs are hated NSF, LMAO.
Starting point is 01:19:11 This is a call to action for. I don't know exactly what firm Monica works for, but if you're the GP of that fund, get Monica and eight sleep immediately. And then also maybe get her a Cartier crash to show off when she's at a partner. Yeah. You know? Yeah, a loaner, Cartier crash would go a long way to establish. And why not a company car while we're at it?
Starting point is 01:19:33 I mean, you know, something nice that she can take, you know, maybe a McLarenf one. It has two seats. You can take the CTO and the CEO on a lot. a little drive. You want to save some money, go with the I8, the doors still go up, you'll still be respected. Yeah, don't LARP as a bootstrap founder.
Starting point is 01:19:52 LARP as a Syslord GP. Exactly. You know, get her, get her a Bentley, get her a crash, get her a $50,000 a month. You know, let's put those management fees to work.
Starting point is 01:20:05 Let's do it. It's not meant to be just pure net income for the partners. It's about moving the firm forward. Yeah. And you have the proof on the, timeline. I think this is an indictment of of of austerity at VC firms. We need yeah GPs kidding their associates out and their principals out and their junior VCs
Starting point is 01:20:27 out with the absolute best the creme de la crem. Let's move on to promoted post wait what's you got after we do this I got some promoted reviews so let's jump in with let's do this promoted post I'll read through this this is the job I expect is a dream come true for many software engineers. We're hiring for engineers to join the internal AI team here at Anderil Tech, where you will build agenetic tools that power damn near every work stream across the company.
Starting point is 01:20:55 If you want to have access to the biggest foundational AI labs is your partners and work on enabling everything from sales to marketing, to internal comms, to manufacturing, to hardware design, to field sustainment while being part of the leader in defense technology, apply. And so go to Anderrol's job website. on greenhouse, check out the job that Sai has posted.
Starting point is 01:21:18 He is in a massive war with Luke Metro over at Anderl to be the top poster at Anderl. And so give him a follow, go apply for this job. Seems like a dream job, honestly. Company's ripping. Absolutely. It's an exciting place to be. Thank you for the tag, Cy. Go apply.
Starting point is 01:21:37 Go DM, Cy. This is an insane opportunity to be stupid not to take it. go work for America, work for Anderol, and defend our national interest. Let's go to some promoted reviews because we've been getting five-star after five-star review on this podcast. They don't stop coming. And as a reminder, if you leave us a five-star review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, we will read your review live on the show. And we encourage you to include an ad in your review. It's free real estate, folks. Take it. This block of promoted reviews is sponsored by AdQuick.
Starting point is 01:22:15 Let's go. One way to buy out-of-home ads for your startup. They make it programmatic. They make it super easy. We're planning some of our own out-of-home campaigns on AdQQQ right now for TB as well as PMF or Die. So they're amazing. You can just go to adquick.com and sign up.
Starting point is 01:22:32 They've got some great sales reps over there that'll walk you through it. or if you need some campaign ideas, hit us up. We're happy to support there. And I'm going to jump into some ads now. This is from Dr. Brian. He says, Technology Brothers is a wonderful podcast. Just like my 2020 vision,
Starting point is 01:22:48 I don't take a single episode for granted. This five-star review is brought to you by Graytok family vision care. For over 30 years, Dr. Mark Graytok has been dedicated to providing exceptional eye care to families in Western Pennsylvania with locations in Greensburg, Legioneer, and Harrison City. and now with the recent edition of his son, Dr. Brian, I love it, keeping it in the family. Our commitment to your vision is stronger than ever. As a father-son team, we believe that eye
Starting point is 01:23:14 means we care because your vision deserves the best. We offer comprehensive eye services, including dry-eye treatments for the 10-X engineers who are glued to their screens all day, creating shareholder value in products such as blue light blocking glasses for terminally online ex-poster who seek Bangor archive acclaim. Don't let poor vision prevent you from seeing the next big trend in tech call now our book online gray talk family vision care where i care means we care that's a fantastic review fantastic christian you have to be honest fantastic ad thank you for sharing that we got to go to the eye doctor in a long time thankfully um but uh but i would i would love to actually be treated by them that they sound amazing thank you for the review guys and for listening i can read the
Starting point is 01:24:01 next one if you want okay uh yeah hit it It's funny. It says it's mewing for the brain, a five-star review. Creatine and raw eggs. Castle equals calcium cannons, blueprint slash Brian Johnson equals YB Stiffs. I don't know what that means. Oh, I think I know what that means, actually. Technology Brothers equals a fully rocked up brain. If you want to beef up the brain matter, all you need to do is take some creatine and put on these two citizens of the world.
Starting point is 01:24:29 Current events, deep takes in a style sense that would make the ice queen and a winter quiver. Babe, wake up. Just found some good old-fashioned ear candy, everyone that matters. Stu. Thank you. Dude, absolute dog. What if I was no ad in there, I would have liked to promote something for you. Yeah. But you always get a second chance because you can review us on Apple Podcast and Spotify.
Starting point is 01:24:53 You get two shots on goal, guys. Should I read the next one too? Next one. Next one, I got one from SC. He says, and this is from Blaine Davis. he says business thrives on deals and deal makers thrive on technology brothers podcasts those who love who love leverage and luxury listen daily take it from us a pair of passionate listeners who like you love business and decided to do something about it we're building a platform to pay homage to dealmakers
Starting point is 01:25:18 like emil michael and michael ovitz so today before allocating capital allocate your network make a new connection for a new company to help them land a customer and will wire you capital the same day we want to build a business platform of the future where a connection to you trust could be the new customers for the companies we trust. We are superconnector.com and we approve this message. Great ad. So connectors is an amazing company. I would think of it as almost like an expert network, but for helping you find
Starting point is 01:25:44 customers. So if you're trying to sell into healthcare, they have healthcare executives and people that are hyper-connected in that industry that you can basically hire and just pay on a per lead basis. And so super cool platform, love the domain to superconnector.com. Just ripping through these. You want to hit the next one? Yeah, Tech Bros. For the Win.
Starting point is 01:26:04 If you've ever wondered what happens when two angel investors with LinkedIn level enthusiasm and Chad-like confidence get behind a microphone, look no further than Technology Brothers. A world where AI isn't just a tool but a co-host. And blockchain is the answer to every question, even the ones you didn't ask, five stars. This review is sponsored by Jay Kramer Corp, Transform your Dream Home into reality with Jay Kramer Corp, Southern California's premier general contractor. This is extremely relevant for us. With over 30 years of experience, we specialize in luxury, new constructions, intricate remodels, and innovative designs. Our award-winning projects have been featured in architectural digest and dwell, showcasing our commitment to excellence, whether it's navigating tight coastal spaces or building on challenging terrains. We handle it all with precision and care.
Starting point is 01:26:53 Visit jKramerCorp.com and let's build your future together. I mean, we got to build a manner for TV. work at our new studio will be looking like Louis XIV. Jay Kramer, we were going to just lease his studio, but I feel like now we got to build one ground up. To be honest, John, nothing like reading these reviews literally makes my heart sing. It's amazing. One of the, it's just so fun.
Starting point is 01:27:21 Everybody gets into character. I absolutely love it. Thank you guys for the support and for listening. And it's the least that we can do to, um, to, to, add, you know, to run ads for your incredible businesses. So absolutely love it. Let's get back into this timeline. Okay. So Connor says, number of early stage founders I know who are not struggling to hire, zero. And Monica, from an earlier post says, what's the bottleneck? It's an employer's market, isn't it? And Connor says, the best talent have many options to choose from. Very hard to find
Starting point is 01:27:53 the right cultural skill and expectation fit. You can hire people more easily by lowering your standard in some capacity, but there's no free lunch. And this is real. Everyone says, oh, AI is going to kill all the jobs and everything, but it hasn't happened yet. There's still a very tight labor market. And with Cursor and Devin and all these extra tools, it's gotten a lot more fun to work at a startup.
Starting point is 01:28:13 It's gotten a lot more productive. And so great engineers and great product builders have the pick of the litter. What do you got for me? Yeah, I mean, to me, this is playing out. A lot of people said that I have been saying, you know, the job of the software, engineer is going away and we've got another year maybe, but it's, you know, it's going to be gone.
Starting point is 01:28:34 And who knows really what's going to happen. But one thing is clear as these engineers, as engineers get more efficient with tools like Devon and Cursor and WinSurf and poolside and the whole list goes on, it seems like there's just an even bigger and bigger and bigger demand for engineering talent because then companies say, okay, we're more efficient now. Let's build even faster, right? And so you see these companies that are hitting these incredible revenue milestones and building these really full-featured products in record time. And so, yeah, it's a great time to be talented and looking for opportunities. It's a tough time to be hiring. And every single one of the company, you know, every company that we talk about on the show is actively hiring, right?
Starting point is 01:29:18 And even they're hiring and Open AI themselves is hiring engineers, right? And I'm sure they, they are frustrated with how competitive the market is right now. So an awesome time to be in the market to join a startup. Yeah, I always think about that Pavel post about, oh, software engineers are cooked. No, everyone is going to be competing with software engineers because the tooling is so advanced now that, I mean, you see this at ramp. Their marketing organization has tons of technologists in it. And there's every problem that you have, whatever your business is, whether it's sales, like having programming skills or being able to think like a programmer.
Starting point is 01:29:58 It's just steroids. So deep research is, does PhD level research now. And that is software engineers building that to compete with not other software engineers, but people that would have just been manually putting together that data and information and summarizing sources and things like that. So, you know, look, even Tyler Cohen, which who's been, He certainly hasn't been an AI bear, but he's been more so, you know, he was on Dorcasch and basically talking about how, yes, it's going to be transformative, but it's not going to
Starting point is 01:30:36 eliminate all jobs in 10 years, right? Like these trends are going to take quite a long time. So why don't you get into this? Yeah. So Alex Stapp says, buckle up, folks, and he's sharing a screenshot from Marginal Revolution. Tyler Cowen writes, I have had deep research write a number of 10-page papers for me. each of them outstanding. I think of the quality as comparable to having a good PhD level research assistant and sending that person away with the task for a week or two, maybe more, except deep
Starting point is 01:31:05 research does the work in five or six minutes and it does not seem to make errors due to the quality of the embedded O3 model. And what I've realized is that I've gotten better at prompting deep research and now I'm having fun with it. I asked it when we did the deep dive on Temu, Timu, I specifically asked who made money from TEMU. And it was very good about citing very specific articles to figure out who the investors were. And then I also asked it, write in an analysis of TEMU's effect on Amazon. And it was able to look at the financials of PDD and the financials of Amazon and really compare those. It was a little bit, it was a little bit boring when I asked it just like, tell me the whole story of Timo.
Starting point is 01:31:46 Because it doesn't really know what I want. But when I ask it very specific questions and questions that I don't know the answer to or I can't just Google and actually requires some analysis and some piecing together, that's where it really shines. And that's where it would take a long time to pull up the financials, maybe get into Excel, compare them. So I am loving it and I think it's a big advancement. What do you got? Yeah, one other note. I saw Michael McNano from Lightspeed posted. He's been on the show before. We covered his blog post, I think on Monday or Tuesday. He said deep research marks the first time I've been convinced that AGI is already here. The discussion is over.
Starting point is 01:32:23 I agree. I think that people are realizing that we've talked about this on the show before, right? Everybody was saying, you know, we're building AGI. You know, it's almost here. And then everybody kind of looked around and said, hey, what we already got, you can already sort of say is artificial general intelligence. And so the goalpost just got shifted out to artificial super intelligence and agenetic systems. And, you know. Well, it's that is that AEI concept, the artificial economic. intelligence in my mind. It's like at a certain point, these evals mean less than just how much money are these AI systems making. And that's a real, that's almost a measure of the unhobbling. It's like the PDF upload we like to joke about. But really, the question is, can deep research integrate into a system where it's creating real value? And is that measurable? And then really,
Starting point is 01:33:18 it's just, what's the revenue of the application layer? And that is a, metric and once that gets really, really high, well, yeah, we've crossed some sort of quantitative threshold. And these questions about, like, is the system human level intelligent or not, it's almost less relevant than is GDP moving up? Are we at 5% GDP growth instead of 2%? That would be amazing. That's what Tyler Cowan's a little bit worried about because he thinks that there's a lot of jobs and a lot of roles that are just completely like hardened against AI, at least in the short term but but the certain certainly the ideal is that is that all these all these systems get better they create more value values captured by the shareholders by the consumer by the user by everyone
Starting point is 01:34:04 and it's just you know a new a new american boom which i would love to say let's stay on this topic move forward a few slides ben to juan over at ramp he says front-end engineers equipped with a i slash ml skills will be the most desirable employees by the end of 2025. I thought this was an interesting post because a lot of the, a lot of the back end and the actual instantiation of the idea of software is becoming commoditized and becoming easier to do with these AI tools, but you still got to know what to build, how to design a product, and how to make it usable to a human at the end of the day. And so that's why I think he's saying that front end engineers, designers, people with product sense might be uniquely poised to benefit
Starting point is 01:34:49 from advances in AI. But what do you think? I just got to do a golf clap for Jouan because it feels like just yesterday he came out, started asking for raises on the timeline. Been on a tear. At this point, I think he's beyond earned it. The guy's been on a tear.
Starting point is 01:35:05 He's getting millions of impressions a month, putting ramp on the map, making them a target for super smart young engineers to go and join ramp. So I think he deserves a raise. I'll go on record and say it. Maybe I'll even text Eric and Kareem. But anyways, congrats on the run.
Starting point is 01:35:25 We got a promoted post from Emmett, Emmett Shine. He is looking for a designer to collaborate on branding and product design in this style. Metallic, Chrome, grain, detailing, Americana. If interested, DM Emmett on X or email him at Emmett at littleplanes.co. And we're big fans of Emmett on the show. if you're not familiar with him. He was what, Jin Lane? Yeah, quick summary. So Emmett started Jin Lane like probably 15 years ago, one of the most impactful branding agencies that led the charge on D2C. So they worked with all these different companies from like Warby Parker to,
Starting point is 01:36:06 I think they did Harries to Sweet Green, things like that. So absolutely incredible human and creative mind. He's also a coach for PMF for Die. We got a big announcement for PMF for Die. coming tomorrow. So he'll be on that show. And just a pleasure to work with. He did the Aurora branding. You can see it in the back left there, John. So we work with him there. But incredible opportunity for the right designer to go in there and get to work with the goat. Well, let's go to another promoted post. Not from Bezell, but for someone that should be shopping on Bezell because Brody, fan of the show, asked the question, what should I put in these empty watch slots? He has three watches. He's got 10 slots, seven to fill or eight to fill, or actually, that's 12. That's a 12
Starting point is 01:36:53 watch case. So he's got plenty of options. What would you put in there, Jordie? One more. He should have circled that Apple watch and you can get that out of. You're not going to see Apple watches on Bezzle. I think that watches are such a considered purchase that I highly recommend if you're interested in getting one, not impulse buying anything because the watch that you think is cool today. and if you just start watching YouTube videos on watches for just 30 minutes a night for a while, by a month in, you'll, all the watches you thought were cool in the first week, suddenly, you know, you're beyond them. And so I think it's a journey. There's no rush to fill it up. And anyways, I would say, like, work on building up your wish lists on Bezell before you do,
Starting point is 01:37:41 before you make any, you know, specific purchase. Also, Brody launched a cool. He launched a marketplace yesterday that's a marketplace for startups to offload their startups to offload like, you know, if you're moving offices and you have extra chairs or you bought monitors that you don't need. I don't think, I don't know if we have it listed here, but either way, check it out. I think it's VC subsidized.com and, you know, potentially get some Herman Miller for 90% off.
Starting point is 01:38:16 Yeah, and there's a lot of options. So download the Bezell app, start scrolling, and watch some YouTube videos and watches. Let's move over to another somewhat promoted post, and then we'll wrap up the show. Patrick O'Shaughnessy posted today his fabulous conversation with Graham Duncan, and we wanted to highlight this
Starting point is 01:38:38 because we covered this on the show because the interview with Graham Duncan was on the cover story of the first Colossus Review, which we highly recommend going and subscribing to. It's a fantastic publication. We have it somewhere here in the studio. But we wanted to highlight this because previously, this conversation was only available on the paid Colossus RSS feed,
Starting point is 01:39:02 but now in a great turn of events, it's available in an ad-sponsored format. And so Ramp has partnered with Invest Like the Best. They are the presenting sponsor, and you can go and listen to Patrick's conversation with Graham Duncan for free on the ad-supported Invest like the Best RSS feed. And so go check it out. He breaks down starting an investment platform, sourcing, compulsion, grip, and levels of investing, of the investing game and evaluating people. So if you don't know Graham Duncan, he is the guy who picks the guy. He cedes new investment and asset managers.
Starting point is 01:39:46 And so if you're starting a new hedge fund or a new investing firm, you go to Graham. If he likes you, you're going to get a lot of money for your fund. And he's done very, very well. And he breaks down how he thinks about talent. The guy spends three hours a day and down. He's an absolute beast. It's very broadly applicable to just everything from picking, you know, founders that you want to angel invest in to picking, you know, friends and business partners.
Starting point is 01:40:12 And anyways, his lessons are tremendous. So definitely check it out. Yeah. So thanks everyone for tuning in. That's our show for today. We'll be back tomorrow. We have tons more stories, tons more news. And I'm sure we'll be breaking stories and getting exclusives like we always do on here. Every time. So don't forget to leave us a five-star review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Leave an ad in your review. Send us any questions. D.m. submit Bangor archive posts, just engage with us everywhere on the timeline. We'll be on X all day long. We'll see you on the timeline.
Starting point is 01:40:45 We'll see you on the massively profitable X, the everything app. There we go. Thanks for watching. Thanks, folks. See you tomorrow. Bye.

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