TBPN - xAI Raises $20B, Anthropic’s $350B Valuation, OpenAI Launches ChatGPT Health | Diet TBPN

Episode Date: January 8, 2026

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Speaking of AI adoption, is anyone adopting XAI? Certainly investors are because they got $20 billion in the bank now. We talked about it yesterday, but I wanted to reflect on it because there were rumors that they weren't going to get this one done. These were just rumors. But when you looked at XAI's traction relative to their valuation at the time, they were looking for a greater valuation than anthropic. And yet the enterprise adoption certainly didn't justify it by itself. Yeah, yeah, yeah. There were lots of weird questions.

The rumor back in November, the Wall Street Journal reported that X-AI was outraising $15 billion in new equity at a $230 billion valuation. And people were skeptical. XAI had accomplished a lot in a very short amount of time. No one would argue with that. They definitely caught up. The benchmarks were good. The data centers were massive and they were being completed in record time. That's what Elon's really, really good at.

a big question about the product and where it was going. It had some useful hooks and some extremely controversial hallucinations, right? But in general, like, I did find myself using GROC certainly monthly, probably weekly. In the last 48 hours, GROC has gone a little bit off the rails. Not the first. But the thing is, you have millions of people that are trying to manipulate it into doing things. It does have guard rails. But GROC's challenge is that you can ask it to create images. Yep. And certainly, yeah, again,

some of these images have been pretty wild and have gotten deleted pretty quickly. Yeah. But it is fully automated system. Yeah. And I believe if any other lab had a bot that was doing this, it would be happening to all the other labs, right? So this is a thing.

I don't think it's a grok problem as much as it is just the nature of the product experience, which is you can just prompt it via comments, and it's all public. And it actually gets, it's just crazy to see a lab. posting images like that from their own official account. If we had sat down and done prediction what lab's going to be in hot water for

controversial AI content in January, we both would have agreed open AI adult mode. It's coming out, they teased it, we've each said it was coming out and then we get this and it makes whatever erotica is going to come out of open AI is probably not going to be as controversial as what's happening with Kroc right now. Part of the reason these images are especially controversial is because it's being shared from the official GROC account. Even though GROC and XAI hit a bunch of interesting milestones, did a bunch of great stuff, they didn't really have a breakout in consumer the way

ChachyPT and Gemini did. And they weren't making waves with developers the way ClaudeCode or Cursor were either. And all of that made the rumors of a struggle to raise more believable. I think a lot of people believed that maybe this raise wouldn't happen. But once there were rumors that they get rolled in SpaceX, you get SpaceX stock, that there be some sort of other thing and just Elon going to make make a play that it would get done. Instead, you know, we are going to be endlessly entertained by the assembly of the ever larger Elon Inc. Megacorp, in my opinion.

XAI winning the AI race feels like the wrong framing here. I like Dan Wong's formulation of the AI future versus the AI race. There's not some definite point in the future where, oh, like the consumer chatbot race is over. It's like you can always build a business and figure out how to grow and scale. And the same thing might be true on the API side and on the cloud side. And that might wind up just being an economic equation. And if you have the cheapest possible energy from space, maybe in the future, it could make sense. Even if you're not in the most frontier model, there's some interesting thing there.

There's certainly plenty of bullcases. Throwing out $420 per share for a theoretical take price. of Tesla, then getting sued by the SEC, and then blowing past that price is still one of the most entertaining corporate finance sagas in tech history. So in 2018, when Elon pitched the funding secured take private, I think we've sort of forgotten

because a lot of our audience doesn't think in stock prices, like the scale of that, of like what he was trying to do at that time. So at that time, Tesla was worth $64 billion, and he was proposing to take it private at $71 billion. It's worth $1.44 trillion today. So the stock is up 22x since that tape private thing. The most entertaining outcome of this fundraise was clearly that XAI would get the deal done, and they did that. And they upsized the route because they got $20 billion when they were rumored to be raising $15 in Series A funding.

And interestingly, that's almost twice the amount of money that SpaceX has raised in its entire history. Lifetime. So SpaceX has done 31 funding rounds. A lot of those have been secondary transactions, but 31 funding rounds to raise 12 billion. XAI just goes out and raises 20 in one round. And so the question, is XAI overvalued? Well, what's the most entertaining outcome?

Clearly, that would be the Elon Inc. Megacorp forming. SpaceX acquires XAI before going public, which is easier to do than rolling it into Tesla, which is public, and would face a bunch of scrutiny. And that gives us a very entertaining situation. Just think about Twitter, which launched in 2006, being owned by SpaceX, founded in 2002. Being able to own Twitter and SpaceX in a single ticker. Hilarious.

Hilarious. It's just the most entertaining outcome. If you went back in time, even in 2010, 2012, even just a few years ago, and you were like, what if Twitter and SpaceX merged? What are you talking about? Lay off the ayahuasca, buddy. Seriously. But then the question is like, is there going to be the big merger?

with XAI and Twitter tucked in plus Tesla design. You create some efficiency too. Elon would only need one badge, right? Oh true. Which could huge. Huge productivity boost. Yeah, huge productivity. He probably has to have a full-time badge guy.

So you have AI chip design, which has done at Tesla, running models trained by XAI, deployed on Starlink satellites, launched on SpaceX rockets, rock, running in, optimist robots. The stock chart will be as entertaining as the hallucinations that happen along the way, was my conclusion. Elon Musk says that XAI will have more AI compute than everyone else combined in less than five years. And he's building macro hard, which now has a... That is a bold statement. He certainly has, you know, marshaled a lot of the capital. He doesn't have all of it.

He's not as much of a capital sponge as Sam Altman at this moment. This is an actual satellite image, correct? No, they really painted this on the top of the data center. I appreciate that about Elon and companies where they're trying to move so quickly. and the entire ethos is around ruthless efficiency. And yet they still think it's worth the time to paint the ceiling of the data center so that you can see it from space.

X-AI has also bought a third building called Macro Harder. Is this a typo? Well, I mean, it's all a joke on Microsoft, obviously. And we'll take XAI training computer to almost two gigawatts. And GROC responding

Impressive expansion 2 gigawatt will supercharge our quest for understanding the universe Good news the mass production audit for Tesla's Optimus V3 has been completed and seven Chinese companies have been finalized as core suppliers operating as tier one partners

These firms will manufacture critical components and support key assembly processes The supply chain is geared to kickstart mass production in Q1, 2026 targeting a capacity of 50,000 100,000 units by the end of the year. Does this mean Butler Ready Robots with some sort of intelligence we have not seen will be ready by then? And again, it's like, I imagine Elon would be excited about doing like some type of like shock and awe announcement. But at the same

time, I feel like he also likes teasing stuff and like pretty far in advance. And so if he's planning to be selling 100,000 units this year of the optimist, you would, you would imagine that we were, we would have been like hearing about it. seeing some more demos and getting used. But yeah, it still feels like we need some type of meaningful breakthrough before these are going to be. Maybe there's 100,000 people that have absolutely printed on Tesla. They're just going to be like, I'll just buy one.

You know, I'm just ride or die. Right. But that's a big, big number, especially when you're talking about, you know, I expect these to cost somewhere in the range of, what, 50,000 to 50,000 plus? I was listening to George Hots talk about the, Optimus robot and he was setting timelines further out. He was sort of saying like the humanoid robot thing will happen more like in a decade,

but he was saying that it's a great project for Tesla because you can put the optimists in all of their showrooms and those are really big draws for people you go in, you see the robot, even if it's like on some pre-scheduled, you know, hard-coded routine. It's doing like a choreographed dance or it's teleoperated, whatever it is. It's like a great awe-inspiring thing

to just pull you into the random Tesla showroom, but there's only 300 Tesla showroom. Do you think that that post from Denny's on X earlier was maybe in response to seeing some of this optimist news? You think so? What they said, the trough is open, piggy. What? Maybe this is teasing that they're going to get some optimizes, you know.

It seems like it's teasing an AI-generated vertical video feed from Denny's. You've got to get into the social networking space. That is having a fast food restaurant make a short form video app and it's just AI slop of their food. That would be really good. Activation you could probably build that. I mean, we're supposed to be going into the Timu SAS era or Sheehan. Fast fashion for SaaS is what Sam Altman called it. And so you would think that someone at Denny's could vibe code a vertical video app in a weekend and deploy it as a prank.

SAS is going fast fashion. Yeah. Maybe fast fashion needs to go. Fast food. Find SaaS. What else? We have a post here of the Razor Aka. This is powered by GROC.

No way. Here we go. Looks like it can directly see what's on your monitor and respond to what you're doing. Sort of a Tomogachi. Oh, and it's basically just taking the Grock video generator and removing the background and then just putting it in some sort of holographic screen.

This is interesting. I personally would not pick this character. but there's something about playing CounterStrike and having a CS coach there if we could get Tyler in one of these things and just bring a mini Tyler that's very black mirror put them in the snow globe wasn't that one of the black mirror episodes snow globe yeah I can see them selling a lot of these how much do you think this is good for the world 2.6 is calling it the goon cylinder Goon Tube. Ridiculous, the Goon Tube. So there's Razor Ava, Project Ava.

You're all in one AI companion from planning your day to analyzing spreadsheet and game starts. Browager Project Ava. They're like, copilot? No thanks. Leverages AI inferencing and reasoning that dynamically evolves based on your personal interaction. Select your 5.5 inch companion from an expanding library of characters, from e-sports legends to custom anime and Spider-Raser designs. Nick Dobo says they are going to make a billion dollars LMAO. This makes me want to touch grass personally.

Yeah. This would be cool as almost a, it's like the on Applevision Pro, when you FaceTime someone. It has like the 3D rendering of their face. Sure, sure, sure. If you could like, when you're facing someone, they're just in the tube. Back to Elon Musk. He was texting Sam Altman two years ago on February 18th, 2023. Sam says, I remember you, I remember seeing you in a TV interview a long time ago, maybe 60 minutes.

It was 60 minutes about SpaceX. where you were being attacked by some guys, and you said they were your heroes, they were heroes of yours, and it was really tough. This was a NASA astronaut who said that SpaceX would not work. Need to check in on that guy. Wellness check. And Sam goes on to say, well, you're my hero,

and that's what it feels like when you attack Open AI. Totally get that we have some screwed up stuff, but we have worked incredibly hard to do the right thing, and I think we have ensured that neither Google nor anyone else is on a path to have unilateral control over AGII, which I believe we both think is critical. I am tremendously thankful for everything you've done to help. I don't think Open AI would have happened without you, and it really effing hurts when you publicly attack Open AI,

and Elon says, I hear you, and it's certainly not my intention to be hurtful, for which I apologize, but the fate of civilization is at stake. Well, next time someone is suing you and very mad at you. Copy paste this. Copy paste this. Tell them you're their hero. Yep. And maybe it gets you a little ground.

Anthropic is raising $10 billion at $350. Woo. I mean, I've heard the $350 number for like a while. A while. So I don't think this is really like brand new. Okay. That's exciting. Are you chasing a slug?

I'm looking, yeah, I think I'm in some kind of. Triple layer, SBV. There's like four or five. You're in the fifth layer. Deploy, to play clog code. If you're wondering whether saturating Arc AGI one or two, means we have AGI now. I refer you to what I said when we launched ARC AGI 2 last year, which is also the same thing I said when we announced ARC AGI 2 was coming in spring of 2022

before the rise of LLM chatbots. The ARCGI series is not an AGI threshold. It's not even a gall post. I don't even know if we need to move it. Why is it called that? Why is it called Arc AGI? It is a compass that points the research community towards the right questions. RKGI 1 is a minimal test of fluid intelligence. To pass it, you need to show non-zero fluid intelligence. This required AI to move past the classic deep learning. Should I just disassemble the goalpost? Disassemble the goalposts.

The LLM paradigm of pre-training, scaling, and static models at inference toward test time adaptation. The camera moves are wild today. I love it. RKGI 2 is the same, but with tasks that probe deeper levels of reasoning complexity, particularly with regard to concept composition. Still, these are tasks that solve in that are solvable in minutes by regular people with no external tool use. We hired our test takers off the street. Imagine just walking down the street and say, come take Arc AGI V2. That sounds fun. So it does not represent the upper bound of what human fluid intelligence can achieve, say, solving a millennium problem.

Arc AGI 3 launching March 26. I thought it was already out. Was that a preview that we played with? because I remember we put you on this task, Tyler. We made you. Yeah, I think they were still adding new like games. Because I only played, I think they were just three. Well, now we have the answer. It hasn't launched yet. So mark your calendars, folks.

Arc AGIV3 launches then. And Arc AGIV3 will probe interactive reasoning. We evaluate how systems explore unknown environments, model them, set their own goals, and plan and execute toward these goals autonomously without instructions. We have also started to work on our KGI four and five, two more sequels.

You thought it was a trilogy. I mean, they're doing a nightmare scenario for everybody. It's a cinematic universe, folks. It's not just a trilogy. There's going to be a whole saga. Sholto says he spent a week over Christmas making an RTS. And his Twitter, Algo, has fully switched into game dev Twitter. It's incredibly wholesome.

People are making some insane things. In particular, image to mesh models mean some indie devs have created absurd production quality. And he shares some example. Where are the AI risk people on this? Because what if he creates a game that's so addictive that all of humanity just plays his vibe-coded RTSs endlessly? It's going to be nothing wholesome about that. Ceases to go outside. It's the true wireheading scenario. And if Shultow's not taking this series, I want answers. Sometimes I'll call you late.

John, just how you doing, buddy? You called me last night. I was literally in bed. Yeah, yeah, I called you last night. Hey, just checking in on you, buddy. You're not playing video games, are you? Fortunately. I'm off the sauce. Mark safe.

Back on the wagon. Doing dry January. Off the sauce. Colin Frazier says, I don't really believe in LLM psychosis. I think LLMs mostly just have a lot to offer to people experiencing regular psychosis. This is an interesting take, and I could see this being actually what's happening, right? Typically, if somebody's suffering from any type of psychosis, they start going to talk to people.

People can kind of walk them off the ledge or kind of like talk them through the situation, help them get help, et cetera. But an L.M. is just like, I love yapping. Let's yap forever. Let's go down every possible rabbit hole. Let me validate some of your. I had a friend in high school that was going through this. And he thought that dears were, like, gangstocking him? Yes, yes, actually.

And so he started telling the bottom of that. He started talking with people about that. And they were like, let's figure this out. Let's go hunting. He's back. He's fully, fully recovered. I feel like a deer hunting trip would be actually the correct thing to do in that scenario. Super.

Just reclaim the authority. And then you, you know who's in the driver's seat. Yeah, they might be stalking, but they don't, they should not be. The whole house is, like, dears, the head, the head, you know, mounted like trophies or whatever. That might be the cure. It might be a cure. to male loneliness, all sorts of things, deer hunting trip. This is an interesting thing.

There is a natural problem that sort of happens when a new technology gets adopted very quickly, which is you get all the good and all the bad. So if you just look at iPhone penetration, it went from, or smartphone penetration, it went from zero in 2006 to 100% in 2015 or something. And basically everyone had a smartphone. And so you get all the,

top CEOs and brilliant people and scientists are using them and you get all that and that's good and doctors are using them to text their patients and you get all the good but then also all the crazy people are using them and everyone who's doing crime is using them for crime and so you get you get the good and the bad because you just got everyone and so you really need to look at the if grocery stores didn't exist and they suddenly were everywhere you'd see videos every day of people going insane in grocery stores and people would be like well our grocery stores making people go insane, right? It's because they'd be like, we're seeing all this video,

where there's all this evidence that people are going insane and, you know, acting insane in grocery stores. It must be that the grocery stores are causing it. So you have to look at like the prior weight. So what's the base level of psychosis in society? What's the incidence of psychosis with LLMs? Is it higher? Then you have a problem.

I had this pulled up. I kept seeing it and laughing at it over the last like two minutes. So if I was like cracking up for the wrong. at the wrong time. This was why Skooks has been using Gemini as a calorie tracking app. Oh, I didn't even see that. Another beer.

I just thought he just went to Gemini and said another beer. And it's just funny that you see the little thinking thing. And it's like thinking about how to process that, that alone was funny. Just imagining the chat, just another beer, another beer, 15 beers, another beer, another beer. Yeah, you know, a lot of people are doing dry January. Other side of that, drunk January,

potentially underrated. Everyone says if you can do Dred January, that's the real contrarian move. Yeah, you prove to everyone, oh, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not, you know, in the, in the pocket of big alcohol. I'm not, I'm not boosting the alcohol stocks. But if you can do drunk January or drunk the whole time, hold it together and then go back to normal life, that's potentially even more willpower, potentially. I don't know. So, so, so I saw saw a picture yesterday. Apparently there's a college, uh, female college basketball player whose last name is beers. And so on our jersey, it says beers. It says the number 15, or number and beer. So it's like a jersey that just says 15 beers on the back. That's great.

The alcohol economy is suffering, by the way. This is in the journal. Here's two unloved booze stocks. The five-year total return through 2025 for the S&P 500 is 96%. If you just bought the S&P 500, You're up, you doubled your money in five years, not bad. Everyone else is down in the alcohol industry. A, B, Inbev, not doing that bad. They're only down 4% over the last five years. But Heineken, down 21%. Diageo, down 38%.

Pernaud, down 50%, Remy, down 75%. Boston beer, the backbone of Boston is down 80% over the last five years. So the chances are way higher that you celebrated New Year's Eve with an adult beverage than by smoking. a joint, says the Wall Street Journal. I don't understand this because I... But the popularity of cannabis, along with the effects of drugs like a Zempic and rising awareness of alcohol's health risks, have investors in the sector worried.

An equal weighted basket of 11 global alcoholic beverage producers has lost a third of its value in the past five years, including dividends. Dry January might be an odd time to think about alcohol's appeal, but it's often a good to snap up unloved stocks that other investors dumped toward the end of the previous year in a market with few bargains, booze looks interesting, says the journal. Nikita responded to your post. Yesterday, he said the point of CES is maximalist futurism. It's all concept art to show. If things keep going in this direction, this is how the world should work.

Once you understand it as a museum exhibit and not in any way commercial products, it becomes more enjoyable. That's a good take. Ray showed me. Thanks, Nikita. I liked it. No, no, this was a very interesting thing. And I think we were sort of T-Som. I know the next thing.

Apparently, this is a Zoom face station. I don't know what this is actually meant. So I think if you put this on in a crowded coffee shop, you can talk here and see, and no one can hear or see what you're doing. I think if you put this on in a coffee shop, you're getting tacked. like not today bane it really does look like your it looks like a special forces uh rebreather unit a scuba diving unit that be tight if you could wear if if if it was a you know if you could if you could spend like 20 minutes underwater with something like this people are not fans of this

tyler says the first x hardware product right there the problem is is that i think people still associate c s with like this stuff's going to work its way into my life um jason free went hard on smart homes. Oh, yeah. He called it the big regression. My folks are in town visiting us for a couple months. We rented them a house nearby. It's new construction. No one has lived in it yet. It's amped up with state of the art systems. The ones with touch screens of various sizes, IOT appliances, and interfaces that try too hard. And it's terrible. What a regression. The lights are powered by Control 4 and require a demo to

understand how to use the switches, understands which ones control what, and to be sure not to hit that one because it'll turn off all the lights in the house when you didn't mean to. Worse. The TV is the latest Samsung, which has a baffling UI just to watch CNN. My parents aren't idiots, but definitely feel like they're missing something obvious. They aren't. TVs have simply gotten worse. You don't turn them on anymore.

You boot them up. Malay dishwasher is hidden flush with the counters. That part is fine, but here's what isn't. It wouldn't even operate the first time without connecting it to an app. This meant another call to the house manager to have them install an app they didn't know they needed either. and apt to clean some peanut butter off a plate for serious. Worse, thermostats. Nest would have been an upgrade, but these other proprietary ones from some other company trying to be nest-like or baffling,

round touch screens that take you into a dark labyrinth of options just to be sure it's set to 68. Or is it 68 now? Or is that what we want it at, but it's at 72? Worse. The alarm system is essentially a 10-inch iPad bolted to the wall that has the weather forecast on it, and it's bright. I'm sure there's ways to turn that off, but then the screen would be so barren.

They would just be filled with the news instead. Why can't the alarm panel just be an alarm panel? Worse. And the lag. Lag everywhere. Everything feels a beat or two behind. Everything lag is a giveaway that the system is working too hard for too little. And he says,

now look, I'm no Luddite, but this experience is close to conversion therapy. Tech can make things better, but I simply can't see it in these cases. Yeah, I think there's an opportunity to make a, like, beautiful, modern. ultra-analogue system for the home. Yeah.

But we've seen this in cars too. Like a lot of the new higher-end vehicles that are coming out are actually like analog- Yeah, they're like people like buttons. Yeah. I feel like it's just a barbell. Like if Apple made your thermostat, it would be good. Yeah. And like, otherwise I don't want any screens.

We have some breaking news. There is a new tab in the chat GBT app. That's right. Greg Brockman. Adult mode. No, health. ChadGBTGPT health. Health is now live. Fiji gave some amazing stats here with more than 40 million people globally

turning to chat GPT every day for health questions. 20% of all the queries are health related. So yeah, the question here is how quickly does chat GPT health try to do the other things that Doctronic is doing? Yeah. Doctronics is actually trying to be an AI doctor. He talked about being able to effectively be a doctor, you know, write prescriptions in Utah. Yep. Going to fight to expand that. Yeah.

The question will be from a strategic standpoint, how they have their own doctors on staff as well. They're operating a telemedicine business, and I'm sure they do referrals out. It's hard to see OpenAI ever employing doctors themselves, but they probably would try to build a network around it. So we'll see where this goes, but it's going to be an exciting space to watch.

So they say today they're launching ChatGPT Health, a dedicated private space for health conversations where you can easily and securely connect your medical records and wellness apps like Apple Health, Function Health, and Peloton. One of my big pushbacks against the Quest Lab rappers is that they haven't historically been very enduring. So you go and do them, and then a few years later, the product sort of degraded.

And then you're like, oh, well, I have six different, like, amazing web users. for my health records, but if I keep importing them to chat chit, I feel like I'll have an account on there for a very long time because it's an enduring company. Makes a ton of sense. This allows Chachapiti to offer more relevant, personalized support, like when you're preparing a doctor's for a doctor's appointment or looking for guidance on a meal plan or exercise routine that fits your needs. That's very cool. Chatteeatheed health is another step towards turning Chachapt into a personal super assistant that can help support you with information and

tools to achieve your goals across any part of your life we're starting at the very beginning in this journey. But I'm excited to get these tools into more hands as Fiji-Simo. You can sign up to request access. Interesting. They're not just rolling it out. Yeah, one of my big questions for this year is like, there's always been this, there's always been this narrative of like, if you build a wrapper that depends on the models not getting better, you're going to have a bad time because the models will just get better. So if your thing is, oh, it can't do long context, or it can't answer in pages and pages and pages, well, the models are going to get better and they're going to do that,

or they're going to do better math. So don't build the math wrapper. That's just a little bit better. But if you're building something that's unique and special and off in the side and doesn't really depend on that, maybe you're good for a long time, but obviously CHETT has matured a lot, and they are going after certain verticals.

And I wonder if we'll see one of the Foundation Labs go after legal, since they're already going after code so effectively. And people are... That would be interesting. And they're making money there, So it's a big pool of opportunity. Yeah, and I wonder if people could, they could make, you could, people are using LLMs to do legal work now, but they're just on these standard subscriptions.

You can imagine a lot of companies would pay $100 a month for kind of a more robust version. And Sam's talked about this where your conversations with chat GPT are not, are definitely admissible in court. And so it's like a Google search. It's not like talking to your lawyer. So if you go to chat GPT and you ask, how do I do crime? client privilege. You don't have client privilege. But maybe there could be a tab

where you sign up for some specific plan and you are getting legal advice effectively and it is attorney-client privilege in some ways. And we will see you tomorrow. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts, Spotify. Subscribe to the newsletter to be thin.com. And we will see you tomorrow. Goodbye.

Cheers, folks. We love you.