TED Talks Daily - Are we heading toward World War III? | Heni Ozi Cukier

Episode Date: July 24, 2025

In this urgent talk, political scientist Heni Ozi Cukier analyzes the social, economic, political and military conditions that preceded the last two world wars, revealing how historical patterns and today’s geopolitical shifts may be pointing us in a dangerously familiar direction. Connecting past and present, he challenges us to recognize the warning signs — and act before it’s too late.For a chance to give your own TED Talk, fill out the Idea Search Application: ted.com/ideasearch.Interested in learning more about upcoming TED events? Follow these links:TEDNext: ted.com/futureyouTEDSports: ted.com/sportsTEDAI Vienna: ted.com/ai-vienna Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

You're listening to TED Talks Daily, where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day. I'm your host, Elise Hugh. A question that petrifies me, and I'm assuming everyone listening, is the world on the brink of World War III. In this talk, political scientist Hemi-Aziz Kukieh digs into the four major dimensions of war to uncover patterns of global dynamics and growing instability that led to World Wars I and II. Through this lens of history, he shares a powerful and scary reflection

on the present moment and a warning to not repeat the mistakes of the past. beyond data. Conditions apply. Details at freedommobile.ca. What matters most to you? Is it unforgettable adventures? Connections with lifelong friends? Peaceful moments of reflection? Feelings of joy and freedom you can't wait to experience again and again? Or is it the vehicles that help you make all those special moments possible? Whatever your answer is, Toyota is here to bring you closer to the things that matter to you, because they matter to us too. Toyota, for what matters most.

The public sector has never been more critical or more complex than it is today. Leading into tomorrow from EY explores the issues facing the public sector. From navigating the risk landscape to exploring how AI is transforming government, we share actionable insights from those leading change. Each episode features government and public sector leaders offering inspiration and practical strategies for peers across the globe. Download Leading Into Tomorrow wherever you get your podcasts.

History has taught us many lessons, and we should pay attention to its science because we might be heading towards World War III. One way to understand today's events is to look for clues from the past, but cherry-picking historical events to forecast the future is a risky exercise that it oftentimes only reinforces our biases. So I want to do something different. Instead of comparing historical examples with what is happening now, I will examine four major dimensions of life.

The social, economic, political, and military dimensions. And I will analyze key trends within each one of those dimensions in three critical moments in history. Before World War I, before World War II, and today. So, let's begin with the social dimension. And there are many factors that shape societies, but I want to focus on how technological innovations have produced social anxieties and destabilized societies throughout history. Before World War I, the second industrial revolution

was transforming life with electricity, cars, phones, mass production and more. While many celebrated these advances, they also disrupted societies. For instance, machines replaced workers and new farming techniques uprooted populations from the countryside. These led to insecurity and resentments. At the same time, traditional authorities, such as churches and monarchies, they were questioned at that time. And new mass movements, they emerged,

such as labor unions and nationalist elites. People were afraid that progress was shaking the very foundation of societies. Moving a little bit ahead in the interwar years before World War II, technology continued to affect life. The word robot was even coined in 1921, and it symbolizes fears of possibly machines substituting human jobs. At the same time, or a little bit later, the famous economist John Maynard Keynes warned us in 1930 of a new disease, namely technological unemployment.

During this period, we had communications revolutions that completely changed public discourse. So this media became powerful tools for propaganda, polarizing politics and amplifying social fears. Traditionalists at that time, they were worried that modern culture was simply eroding tradition, family, and religion. Today we are going through a technological revolution driven by AI, digital media, and social platforms. The internet,

smartphones, and social media have transformed the way we work, communicate, and even think. Psychologists debate how digital life is affecting children's development, while concerns over privacy and surveillance and AI-driven job loss continue to grow. AI-driven job loss continues to grow. Technologies are spreading ideas across the globe, but also they are amplifying frustrations, fears, and divisions faster than ever before. In short, technological progress brings incredible benefits, but they also breed insecurity, resentment, and uncertainty.

Historically, such anxieties have made societies more unstable and vulnerable to extreme ideologies that fuel militarism and war. Now let's talk about the economics and I want to present two perspectives on the economics. The first one is related to a common idea that economic prosperity prevents wars. And the argument goes like this. I mean, it makes no sense for a nation to go to war and destroy its own wealth. So they don't wanna go to war. Before World War I, in 1914,

Britain dominated global trade and finance. Germany was striving industrially and expanding its exports. Both countries, they knew that there are no financial benefits that justify the enormous economic costs of going to war. However, World War I taught us a very important lesson. Economics may explain what can be done, but politics decides what will be done. Fear, ambition, miscalculation, all overrode by even the strongest economic success

showing us that simply war and peace are not decided by economic arguments alone. We have to take into consideration political, ideological, and strategic reasons. political, ideological, and strategic reasons. Okay, so what is going on with the second perspective? And the common perspective says the following. People assume their nations, they want to be wealth and powerful. It's not that they don't want that, they do, but they want something else.

It's better for them if they are wealthier or more powerful than their rivals, right? So what matters is the relative power. I want to be more powerful, and I wanna be just powerful. I want to be more powerful than my enemy or my rival. Let's look at what happened at World War II. And in that moment, Germany and Japan,

they did not see trade as mutually beneficial. Why? They were gaining less than their rivals, Britain, France, and the US, which made them vulnerable. What was their response? Searching for self-sufficiency and eventually war. All right, so what is going on today? There are two main ideas that we see all over.

The US, China, economic interdependence will prevent war. Really, I just told you what happened in World War I. economic interdependence will prevent war. Really, I just told you what happened in World War I. Right? So economics alone do not determine geopolitical outcomes. We have to consider political, strategic, ideological, and many other factors. When we think of what is going on after, or what happened after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine,

at that moment, states realize that it's too risky to be really dependent on your rival. So as nations reassess today their economic dependencies, they are all moving towards one thing, or actually two, self-sufficiency and economic nationalism, just like before World War II. History reminds us that wars are not only caused by economic situations, but we have to take into consideration political factors and relative power. All right, so let's go to the political dimension. Here, I want to talk about polarization. And polarization not only divides societies, but ultimately it might destroy the political order. Polarization comes in many forms, divided media,

political battles, legislative backlogs, contested elections and its worst form, political violence. And that's when armed groups emerged because they don't trust institutions to resolve the disputes of society. What we have in World War I, before that actually, in the Balkans there is deep polarization and many nationalist movements clashing against the Austro-Hungarian Empire. And that led to the Serbian group,

the secret Serbian group, Black Hand, to assassinate the Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914, which wasn't an isolated event. It was the result of years of political violence in a fractured society that trigger World War I. Now, what do we have before World War II? The same situation, Germany. The Weimar Republic was struggling with escalating polarization and violence became common.

Assassinations of key political figures such as the finance minister in 1921 and the foreign minister in 1922 demonstrated this. Soon at that time, all political factions from the right, the center and the left, they had their own militias. And obviously this brought instability and we know the rise of authoritarianism and World War II. What do we have today? Very interesting and scary in some ways. January 6th, 2021, the attack on US Capitol.

Some Trump supporters contested the result of the election. That is a clear example where polarization became violent. More recently, several assassination attempts against President Trump. Polarization and violence in the United States is coming from all sides. But this is not only the US. Let's look at Germany.

There is a deep surge or a big surge in political violence in Germany. Over the last five years, more than 10,000 attacks on politicians. While the far-right supporters of AFD have committed a lot of attacks against other politicians. The politicians from AFD themselves, they are frequent targets for this political violence.

As you can see, the signs are really big and when we analyze what history shows us, we realize that once armed groups emerge, compromise becomes impossible and conflict inevitable. If polarization nowadays has reached this level, society or the political order is on the brink of collapse. Now, let's go to the final dimension, the military dimension.

Here, I want to focus on alliances, because they are key to understand how conflicts become worldwide disasters. Wars or world wars, they don't start as global wars they begin as regional wars and Then a regional problem becomes this big problem because of the alliances let's Take a look at a world war one before that

we have a dispute between Austria and Serbia and because of the alliance at a dispute between Austria and Serbia and because of the alliance it escalated to become an European war and once Britain joined it became a global war. The same thing happened in World War II. We had three regional conflicts, separated conflicts initiated by three different countries. Germany won on hegemony in Europe, Italy sought an empire in the Mediterranean, and Africa and Japan wanted to control China and Asia Pacific. World War II only became a world war

when the United States entered the war after the Pearl Harbor attack. So how is this related to today? We already have two regional wars, Russia in Ukraine and Iran with its proxies wars in the Middle East. And the third one is taking shape as China aims to take Taiwan.

Maybe in that third theater we're going to see more countries joining and then as in World War II we're going to have three regional conflicts that become a global war. There's another important aspect of alliances which is the level of integration, how united they really are. And this is interesting. When we look at the Axis powers of 1930s, Germany, Italy and Japan, they were not allied, really. Actually, they were on opposite sides.

When we look at the crisis in Austria in 1934 and in Ethiopia in 1935, Italy was on one side and Germany was on the other. When we look at who was helping China against Japan until late 1938, that was Germany. And then comparing this today, we have a new axis being formed. China, Russia, North Korea and Iran today, they are all united. Like who sends ammunition, weapons and even soldiers to help Russia fight Ukraine? North Korea. Who gives food and Ukraine, North Korea. Who gives food and energy to North Korea? China. Who buys Iran's sanctioned oil? China.

Who buys Russia's gas? China. And China supplies Russia with electronic equipment to keep its war. As you can see, the axis of today, which I call the axis of dictatorships, they're really united much more than the axis of the 30s. And on the other hand, we look at the opposing alliance, which is what?

NATO and the democracies, they're falling apart and they're breaking and they are divided. History tells us that alliances are very important. If we have the aggressors alliance growing stronger and the opposing alliance becoming divided and weak, the incentives for the aggressors to strike, they're really big.

I'm not here talking about any inevitable destiny, but I'm looking for historical patterns that help us connect the dots. And with that, we might not repeat the mistakes of the past. And to end, I want to remind you of the famous aphorism, history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Thank you. at TEDxLizboa in 2025. If you're curious about TED's curation, find out more at TED.com slash curationguidelines.

And that's it for today's show. TED Talks Daily is part of the TED Audio Collective. This episode was produced and edited by our team, Martha Estefanos, Oliver Friedman, Brian Green, Lucy Little, Alejandra Salazar, and Tansika Sarmarnivon. It was mixed by Christopher Faisy-Bogan, additional support from Emma Tobner and Daniela Balarezzo. I'm Elise Hu.

I'll be back tomorrow with a fresh idea for your feed. Thanks for listening. Thank you. The public sector has never been more critical or more complex than it is today. Leading into tomorrow from EY explores the issues facing the public sector has never been more critical or more complex than it is today. Leading Into Tomorrow from EY explores the issues facing the public sector. From navigating the risk landscape to exploring how AI is transforming government, we share actionable insights from those leading change. Each episode features government and public sector leaders offering inspiration and practical strategies for peers across the globe. Download Leading Into Tomorrow,

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