TED Talks Daily - Tax the rich — and save the planet | Esther Duflo

Episode Date: October 15, 2025

Nobel Prize-winning economist Esther Duflo brings her data-driven precision to the climate crisis — and the numbers are damning. While world leaders haggle over finances at endless summits, rising temperatures will kill millions in the poorest countries by the end of this century. She calculates the staggering cost of wealthy nations pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, proving that getting billionaires to pay their fair share in taxes is the best way to cover these damages.TED Talks Daily is nominated for the Signal Award for Best Conversation Starter Podcast. Vote here!Interested in learning more about upcoming TED events? Follow these links:TEDNext: ted.com/futureyouTEDAI San Francisco: ted.com/ai-sf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Why don't we just tax the world's richest people in order to pay for climate damages? She explains why a publicly funded redistribution system financed by taxes on billionaires and large multinational companies could really work and says this grand bargain is more within reach than we might expect. So most of the time

when we think about climate change, we conjure these images of wildfires and storms and floods but the reality is that temperature alone kills, and in particular right here in Africa. We don't see it in the capital of France or the US because it's mostly happening in poor countries, which are already hot, and where citizens don't have the protection of air conditioning or office jobs.

By the best estimates, by the end, of this century in 2100, an extra 6 million people will die just because of increased temperature. And all of these deaths will take place in low or middle-income country. Every ton of carbon that we emit from the US, from India, from China stays in the atmosphere for a very, very, very long time contribute to the warming of the Earth and therefore kill people. Now let's try, for the sake of concreteness,

to put a dollar value on this life's cut short. Now, I can see what you're thinking. The economies come, you know, we cannot really price a life. The reality is we are doing it all the time. As individuals, we are thinking about, you know, the probability of dying in a bicycle accident and the cost of a helmet, and we kind of weigh one against the other.

And our governments also do it. For example, when thinking about the cost of investment that can protect the lives of people on a highway, for example. Mexico, which is about the world's average income, uses a value of a statistical life of about $2 million. So using this number of $2 million for a value of a statistical life as a benchmark, we calculated the dollar value of the life lost because of emissions. And the cost are staggering.

Every year, the greenhouse gas emission of the OECD inflict a cost of $1.7 trillion with a T on low- and middle-income country. And the costs are the largest in the countries that are the poorest. Technisia, a country where the GDP is just shy of $650 a year. The yearly damages from the OECD emission in Niger are $9,000. Meanwhile, from COP to COP, rich countries are nickel and diming the poor countries for the climate money, for mitigation, for adaptation. We're supposed to be on the roadmap from Baku to Bellam, from 300 billion to 1.3 trillion. But it is likely to be a road to nowhere if we continue with buswords

and with hairy schemes. The money is difficult to raise. It's even harder to spend. Climate negotiator from India, from Africa, are so tired to negotiate with dozens of outfit to access money that should legitimately be theirs. So there has to be a better way, and I'm here to tell you, one better way.

So first of all, how about we stop beating around the bush and try to raise $1.7 trillion. for our moral debt to the poor countries. Can we do that? Yes, we can. But let's face it, there is no money to be made, saving the life of an old woman in Pakistan.

And this is too much money for philanthropy. So the money has to come from publicly funded international redistribution. Now, you're looking at it. at me and saying she probably was under the rock the last few months. This is every country in the north, starting from the US, but not ending there, is cutting international commitment, not adding to them. So how can I go and say, well, how about 1.7 trillion of new money?

So we have to take the money where it is, which is in the big account of the richest people in the planet and the largest multinational corporations. Now, before you think I'm a dangerous alien, I'm not talking about excruciation. The reality is that the richest people on the planet do not pay their fair share in taxes. Warren Buffett, who is no communist, quit. that he paid less taxes than his assistant. And it's true, but it's not just in the US. Worldwide, rich people have all sorts of perfectly legal maneuver

to avoid paying the same taxes as everybody else. A tax on the wealth of the 3,000 richest people in the world of about 3% a year would raise $400 billion. A slight increase in the minimum tax on multination. international corporation from 15 to 21 percent would raise 300 billion dollars. I'm not dreaming because the tax on international corporation, it exists already. Twenty years ago, it would have seemed crazy to think that we could have an agreement worldwide to have such a tax. And yet, in 2021, 120 countries signed a treaty, and it's already implemented by 40 countries.

And what is nice about it is that it does not require every single country. to participate. If the U.S., for example, doesn't participate. The way the rules are made, France and Germany, for example, can tax the U.S. companies on their sales in France or Germany to make sure that overall they pay 15% on their profits. We could do just the same for the billionaires. France and Germany could send them a tax bill, say, to Jeff Bezos.

In the unlikely event that Jeff Bezos doesn't pay his taxes, they could start levying money on Amazon's tax in France. So this is feasible. This is already in the conversation. Brazil put it on the map during their presidency of the G20. It made it to the final declaration. We support from many countries, including France, for example, and Spain. And we support from some of the Brazilian richest billionaire.

Thank you. Nica, Citubo. Now, it has also a lot of support. 70% of Americans and 80% of European are in support of attacks on the wealthiest people to help the poorest people cope with climate change. But some people are a little worried that what would we do is the money if we manage to raise it.

The climate activists are worried about international institutions hogging it, and the rich countries are worried about developing countries, government using it for their own purpose. So here is a simple solution. Send it straight to people. We know how to do it. The infrastructure is already there, chief of all here in Africa,

where almost everyone has a mobile money account already. There are more than 100 randomized controlled trials of cash transfer program that shows that people use the money well. And moreover, the money not only is used well, but it also helped resilience. For example, in Zambia, when people received about $12 a month in a support income, not only did it increase their consumption on average, but it removed the ups and downs that they get with drought and flood usually.

Here in Kenya, people used a universal basic income that they had to finance first a better roof over their head and second solar panels to power a fan, a pump, or a cell phone, thus increasing resilience and increasing productivity. For some countries which are very poor, there is enough damage money to fund the UBI for everyone such that nobody has to live under the poverty line. For richer, middle-income country, there is enough to fund a sort of insurance

where no one needs to work when it's 35 degrees outside. finding ways to reliably collect money to pay for our mall debt to the world to a citizen would do a lot to repair the trust between the West and the rest. And it is badly needed because the reality is that the future of climate mitigation is in the countries that are today poor. Even if the OECD, even if the US, Europe managed to reduce their emissions, unlike the countries of Africa, India, et cetera,

don't get into a crazy trajectory, the climate fight will be lost. So the future is here. And it can only be done if there is trust. So what we need is really a new grand bargain about climate mitigation and adaptation. What we need is a situation where every poor countries is entitled to the damages

that our continued emissions imposes on them. And in exchange of this money for their citizens, they commit to force full climate action, including potentially carbon pricing mechanism. It's urgent. It's feasible. It's just. So all of you here, especially any billionaire, either in Rome or watching me, please stand up and demand a billionaire tax for climate justice. Asante, thank you.

That was Esther Duflo at the TED Countdown Summit in Nairobi, Kenya in 2025. If you're curious about Ted's curation, find out more at TED.com slash curation guidelines. And that's it for today. TED Talks Daily is part of the TED Audio Collective. This talk was fact-checked by the TED Research Team and produced and edited by our team, Martha Estefanos, Oliver Friedman, Brian Green, Lucy Little, and Tonzika Sung Marnivong. This episode was mixed by Lucy Little.

Additional support from Emma Tobner and Daniela Ballerazo. I'm Elise Hu. I'll be back tomorrow with a fresh idea for your feet. Thanks for listening. With Wise, you can send, spend, and receive up to 40 currencies with only a few simple taps. Plus, Wise won't add hidden fees to your transfer. Whether you're buying souvenirs with pesos and Puerto Vallarta, or sending euros to a loved one in Paris, you know you're getting a fair exchange rate with no extra markups. Be smart. Join the 15 million customers who choose Wise.

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