TED Talks Daily - Will the end of economic growth come by design — or disaster? | Gaya Herrington

Episode Date: October 18, 2024

What if solving poverty, caring for nature and fostering well-being were the ultimate goals of the economy, instead of growth for its own sake? Environmentalist and economist Gaya Herrington proposes a shift in thinking from "never enough" to "enough for each," asking us to contemplate whether the end of exponential growth on a finite planet will come by design — or disaster.

TED Audio Collective. You're listening to TED Talks Daily, where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day. I'm your host, Elise Hu. Why do problems like poverty and pollution persist, especially when the world is getting richer and more developed? Sustainability expert Gaia Harrington shares eye-opening analysis to explain the why. And after the break,

she shares what needs to be done to shape the world we want to live in. Support for this show comes from Airbnb. If you know me, you know I love staying in Airbnbs when I travel. They make my family feel most at home when we're away from home. If you know me, you know I love staying in Airbnbs when I travel. They make my family feel most at home when we're away from home. As we settled down at our Airbnb during a recent vacation to Palm Springs, I pictured my own home sitting empty. Wouldn't it be smart and better put to use welcoming a family like mine by hosting it on Airbnb? It feels like the practical thing to do, and with the extra income, I could save up for renovations to make the space even more inviting for ourselves and for future guests.

Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much at airbnb.ca slash host. And now, our TED Talk of the day. Let's contemplate the word enough, because I think it will play an important role going forward. When I watch the news or scroll my feeds, I keep coming back to the same questions. Why, despite all our knowledge and innovation, do problems like poverty and pollution keep plaguing humanity? Why, despite astonishing advances in renewable energy and resource efficiency, is fossil fuel use at an all-time high, as is our global ecological footprint? And why, despite being responsible for the main part of that footprint, have rich countries

been experiencing stagnating, if not decreasing, well-being? I'm a sustainability researcher with a background in econometrics, and I believe the answer lies in the fact that solving poverty, caring for nature, or fostering well-being is not the ultimate goal of our current economic system. Its goal is growth. Many take this for granted, but growth wasn't considered a moral goal for most of history. It was only officially measured around the middle of last century through GDP. It then shifted into the core of our economic thinking, and from there

into policymaking and our collective psyche. Growth became synonymous with progress. Things went fast after that. Extinction rates went up, resource use and waste exploded. Some warned early on about the dangers of exponential growth on a finite planet. In 1972, a team of MIT scientists created a first-of-its-kind world model consisting of over 200 interconnected variables. With it, they analyzed the question I mentioned earlier, why problems like poverty and pollution persist.

They published a book on their findings called The Limits to Growth, in which they warned that continuing the business-as-usual growth pursuit would lead to societal breakdown, setting in around now. Breakdown doesn't mean the end of humanity, but a steep decline in well-being, nonetheless. The book was a bestseller, but you may have never heard of it. The authors were derided as doomsayers, and their message over time buried.

A few years back, I compared their now decades-old projections with what's happened since. I found empirical data closely aligning with the models business as usual scenario, which shows growth grinding to a halt around 2040 or so, followed by steep declines in things like food production and well-being. My analysis also revealed that this breakdown could be avoided by letting go of the growth pursuit and redirecting resources to meet human needs and protect nature directly. This indicates that what we do in the next few years will determine our well-being for the rest of this century.

And this now-or-never moment in history is up to us. Technology by itself will not save us. Despite aspirational talks of decoupling, the idea that the economy can grow without resource use and pollution growing along with it, there's no decoupling. Certainly not for a full impact on the Earth. Raw materials consumption has been around 1.2 kilograms per dollar GDP for two decades, while biodiversity loss, water scarcity, plastic pollution are all worsening. But even just considering carbon emissions, which per dollar GDP have decreased,

sufficient absolute decoupling, which is what we need, is nowhere in the data. Our choice isn't whether to keep growing or not. It's whether the end of growth will come by design or disaster. Either we choose our own limits or we'll have them forced upon us. Now that humankind has reached global, unparalleled power, limits to growth confront us with a question we've never faced before. Who do we want to be? And what world do we want to live in? Here's where enough comes in. If I were to describe the Montauk we need in the 21st century with one word, it would be enough. Enough as in no more.

This is the limit, say, a planetary boundary. And enough as in sufficient, juxtaposing it to this exhausting grind for evermore, and instead invoking a notion of sharing, as in enough for each. I believe the only realistic plan to avoid breakdown and maintain global well-being lies in this mindset shift, from never enough to enough for each. Change the goal of our economic system from growth to human and ecological well-being.

A well-being economy. What would that look like? We have an idea because we already pretend that's what we have. No vision statement reads, a world where growth perpetuates at all costs indefinitely. It talks about how this organization contributes to society because that's what we feel it should do. In a well-being economy, business activities,

government policies, and citizen behavior are aimed at meeting our physical, social, and spiritual needs within planetary boundaries. It doesn't mean we're anti-growth. It just means we're more selective about it. We differentiate between what should and should not grow, depending on whether it contributes to well-being. This implies different pathways towards a well-being economy for low and high-income countries. At small material footprints, growth more often correlates with well-being, including through poverty reduction. So poorer countries below their share of earth's

carrying capacity may still need green growth, economic expansion driven by clean technologies. In richer countries, what has decoupled from growth is happiness. So they can and should focus on reducing ecological footprints to sustainable levels while safeguarding everyone's livelihood by sharing more equally. Let me stress, because I hear this misconception a lot,

de-centering growth doesn't mean shrinking the economy until it crashes. It means reducing our environmental impact to within a safe operating space for life as we know it. That's not going back to a poorer past. That's changing the forward direction away from a cliff. We'll still have houses with fridges, good schools, health care, profitable businesses. We'll go to jobs and parties. But social norms and economic dynamics will change. We'll redefine what has value, or what work we call productive.

With our needs securely met, this trade-off between social and environmental benefits, which we often take as given, dissolves. Sharing more equally means less income and wealth inequality, improving social cohesion, and reducing wasteful, conspicuous consumption. Efficiency gains are used to work less instead of produce more. By not pursuing growth at all costs, we can avoid a lot of costs,

like all the expenditure on health care and cleanups due to pollution. Moving to a post-growth society isn't choosing permanent recession. It's flexing our free will to change our notion of prosperity from ever more to better. And now, back to the episode. How probable is this economic transformation?

It's feasible. Let's have the answer. We know what promotes well-being. In fact, policies like zero tolerance on child poverty or GDP alternatives are exchanged already in WECO, a partnership of self-proclaimed well-being governments. Dozens of cities are piloting post-growth frameworks to operate within explicit social and environmental boundaries with practices like universal basic incomes. I love how companies that put people and planet legally above profit generate billions each year. How communities are taking back stewardship of their commons with co-ops in

renewable energy, water or food. Or how recent experiments with shorter work weeks for the same pay were so successful that most of those companies made it permanent. We also have the technological capabilities, which will be pivotal once directed towards the right goal. This redirection is indispensable, but of course, I'm regularly told the techno-optimist argument that it's not. And I always respond. Let's say we could replace the dying bee colonies with robot pollinators. Why do that? If we can also advance regenerative agriculture which doesn't cause insecticide.

Why dedicate our innovative powers to tree planting drones? When we can also use that thinking to redesign our economy so that existing forest isn't cut down. And that brings me to the other half of the answer to how probable a well-being economy is. It's promise. We'd have less stuff, but more of what we need. Connection.

Maintaining a sense of community and purpose is hard in this current economic system, which treats us as selfish, never-satisfied consumers. Research shows we're not just capable of caring for life, we derive joy and meaning from it. We can't be truly happy unless those around us thrive too. This economic transformation wouldn't be a capitulation to grim necessity. We'd want to do it even if we were not facing ecosystem collapse. Because a well-being economy fits much better who we want to be

and the world we long to live in. So we started with these global problems and found that changing our economic system is imperative, but also feasible. And no sacrifice, but simply letting go of what's no longer serving us to find belonging in a post-growth world of embraced interdependence. If that sounds spiritual, that's what a well-being economy delivers. Physical sufficiency, social abundance, and spiritual wealth. Including the peace of mind that this prosperity can last.

Thank you. My family feel most at home when we're away from home. As we settled down at our Airbnb during a recent vacation to Palm Springs, I pictured my own home sitting empty. Wouldn't it be smart and better put to use welcoming a family like mine by hosting it on Airbnb? It feels like the practical thing to do. And with the extra income, I could save up for renovations to make the space even more inviting for ourselves and for future guests. Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much at airbnb.ca slash host. That was Gaia Harrington at TED's Countdown Bloomberg Green Festival in 2024. If you're

curious about TED's curation, find out more at TED.com slash curation guidelines. And that's it for today. TED Talks Daily is part of the TED Audio Collective. This episode was produced and edited by our team, Martha Estefanos, Oliver Friedman, Brian Green, Autumn Thompson, and Alejandra Salazar. It was mixed by Christopher Fazi-Bogan. Additional support from Emma Taubner and Daniela Balarezo. I'm Elise Hugh. I'll be back tomorrow with a fresh idea for your feed. Thanks for listening. Looking for a fun challenge to share with your friends and family? TED now has games designed to keep your mind sharp while having fun. Visit TED.com slash games to explore the joy and wonder of TED Games.