TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #323: The Global Spring has sprung with Tom Luongo

Episode Date: April 12, 2022

Join Marty as he sits down with Tom Luongo to discuss the state of the world. Follow Tom Luongo on Twitter Read everything Tom writes at Gold Goats 'n Guns Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained Capital Braiins HodlHodl

What is up freaks? It's your boy Marty Bent here to introduce this rip of TFTC. I sat down with Tom Luongo. We had a great conversation. I can't wait to do it again. That was an invigorating one car. I can't speak. Still very tired from Miami. Miami was fun. It was invigorating as well. A lot of late nights. I'm happy I came back Saturday. yes it was brought to you by our good friends at unchained capital and chain capital is here to help you eliminate single points of failure in your bitcoin security model and to give you financial services so that you can use your bitcoin to do cool things like use it as collateral to get dollar liquidity if you need it you don't have to sell your bitcoin but bitcoin up as collateral

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you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free If you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts. So it's all acting like safe haven. I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. And he'll eventually calm down and ignore me eventually.

A cat named Cal? Yes. Does he look like a cow? He's pretty big. We are live. Tom Luongo, thank you for joining me. Thank you, Marty. How are you doing today?

Doing well. Doing well. We had a big week in Miami at the Bitcoin conference last week. I came back Saturday. And now I have my wife's sister and our brother-in-law and their kids in town. So it's been a long run here. But I'm excited to sit down and speak with you. seems like the global spring has sprung sir yeah that's one way of putting it um yeah i didn't i i

went to bitcoin 2021 last year but i didn't go this year and i kind of wanted to go but i just didn't have the time or the like the bandwidth actually you know put it together and and and make the job not only 300 i'm just i'm in north florida so it's not actually that big a big deal for me to go down there but how was it this year it was a great event it was a great event it was was a lot of fun um very productive for me as well yeah i mean we did a live podcast there on thursday and then i was on a is esg an attack on bitcoin panel on friday morning that that was uh well attended and very contentious um as as one may expect yeah it's a it's an interesting interesting point i mean i'm so caught up in the right in the the ebb and flow geopolitics at this

point obviously what esg is means to to commodity and energy uh uh investing that i haven't really thought about it from the perspective of bitcoin per se but i mean they had a panel on that last year was a kevin o'leary covered a panel about uh you know how the miners should they or should they not you know color their bitcoins as to whether or not they're environmentally friendly or not we're like no shut up and uh so yeah i mean i hadn't really given that a lot of thought recently but it's an it's an issue simply because you know these these freaking people will just not let anything go and uh every and any challenge to their potential power or perpetuating their power is just going to attempt to be shut off and they're going to do it in the most ham-fisted

way imaginable and they're going to do it in the most underhanded way imaginable so it is what you you know but we know this is coming and there's just so many i just look at the the whole bitcoin market as a whole the whole space at this point that the brightest minds in the world are against them and they're the oldest most dullest and dullest minds in the world and they have power but they don't have like they don't have any precision right and another thing too they don't have mean power like i think we can win the narrative battle i'm becoming more more confident in this is that I think we're better at distilling information and getting it out there.

And most importantly, pointing out how hypocritical and dangerous they are. I mean, the ESG is dangerous. It has put us in a situation where we have food shortages, we have unstable energy markets, and we're becoming less secure year by year because of, maybe it's not ESG,

specifically it's certainly a factor in it but these people trying to micromanage a global economy well i mean they are technocrats and they are communists so what do you expect i mean it's just that simple and i i don't you know people get angry with me when i reduce all this stuff down to communism because i think communism is a little too freaking fashionable if you want my honest opinion um that you know it's it's it's not cool dude you know it's just not it's actually really destructive and terrible uh and it's a mindset it's not a um it's not an economic system you know and anybody who tries to like play off that it is an economic it's not it's a mindset the mindset is total and complete control over the way you operate and i i and i know this

well enough it's it's no different than when you talk to hardcore objectivists within libertarian circles at the end of the day it all just winds up being one big stupid purity spiral and if you're not part of you know the the if you're not part of the group that has the truth then you will eventually be ousted and this is exactly what will happen within this is exactly what effectively davos is doing now um and they're doing it to everybody and now they're doing it to the entire world like they've fomented a war in ukraine with russia and uh and now they're using every aspect of their political power to perpetuate a conflict that should have already been over that under any other normal military circumstances ukraine would have surrendered yeah why is it why isn't it over

it's not over because they don't want it over um it's just that simple zelensky is being told not to uh surrender because the minute he surrenders then ukraine would cease to exist as effectively as a state right they would have to now start um dealing with terms they would have to start you know negotiating terms of settlement as to what happened as to who gets what and how much is owed and all that stuff and the one thing that will happen in all of that is the is the presentation of evidence which well this isn't a court case per se think about it like a court case and what's the one thing that these people you know the bankers on wall street or hillary clinton or any of these these evil freaking people what do they do whenever there's a potential legal challenge

to out them in public what do they do they settle out of court before you ever get the discovery so part of the whole point of extending the official conflict and this is why russia's failure to take kiev is so important because had they taken kiev this would be a done deal um because they would have lost the capital and then you know zelensky could not surrender in exile but like you don't have a country to not to not surrender dude you're you know you're juan guido at this point you're just some dude and um denying reality so that's part of the reason why this is because they want this war to continue because they want world war three and they want world war three because they they have failed to just fully get everybody embraced

into the post-COVID narrative of vaccine passports and the total surveillance state. And they haven't gotten enough of us in line with them, having fallen in line. And Russia, China, and most of the global South has also refused this. And because of that, they have to go to war with them because their goal is global domination. Their goal is to right the wrong of the Soviet Union and the last push towards global communism, which was that they got russia and china to fall but they couldn't get the west to fall and they firmly kind of believe this idea that if we could just get everybody on the same system it'll all work and that's it's a naive thing it's like talking

you know like the old about this i used to argue with when i was a member of the libertarian party and they would um they would make these like in the sky arguments about this stuff and you're like no no it doesn't work that way like that's not the way human beings are wired and we're never going to get to that state so stop arguments for it and this is what who are stuck in reality and so suffused with their own sense of righteousness and their own sense of rightness that you can't even you can't uh you can't reason with them anymore and you can't cut a deal with them because they're not interested in cutting a deal they're interested in subjugation and they're convinced that the world can only sustain

one to two billion people so therefore we have to get rid of all these useless eaters or we have to put them on UBI and let the robots just feed them and give them video games and keep them from revolting they've been saying that a lot recently and it's really quite scary it's very scary

your internet connection seems to be coming in and out but I think I caught most of what you're saying and I also think one thing that I heard you say recently is really encouraging. These people are dumb to an extent. Their hubris has gotten so large.

They've gotten so complacent. I mean, vaccine rollout is a perfect example. They push that on the world and it's becoming obvious that it's poisoning people. You have people fleeing Moderna and Pfizer en masse right now. It seems like it's going to become glaringly obvious that that was a terrible, terrible mistake mistake that was made uh and uh yeah they're not going to be successful in fomenting enough

strife amongst the people and be able to say hey come into this digital panopticon they're definitely gonna get people all pissed off people are gonna go hungry and energy is gonna be more scarce but i don't think they're gonna be able to use that to push us into the cbdc yeah i know and this is the thing that really is bothersome is that, um, they aren't kind of failing while at the same time as they think they're winning. That's the scary part about it. They're on a script. They don't have any other options. Um, and yeah, I have been known to say that like power doesn't make you smart. Power makes you stupid. It makes you indiscriminate in the way you use it. And you don't have to be sharp and precise with your application of power. You just

have to be you have to say well we're going to do this and um as dick cheney not carl rove even though this quote is um attributed to carl rove was actually dick cheney who said it's like we're in the reality generation business we generate reality which then you spend all your time trying to figure out what reality we created and by the time you figure out what reality we created we're off to the next reality that we're creating for you um that is kind of davos writ large they are moving forward along every vector of this, even though they don't have universal or anything close to universal consent for it. And there's competing technologies out there like Bitcoin, especially Bitcoin, especially, and I use Bitcoin as a metaphor for all hard Bitcoin style proof

of work coins. Okay. I don't, I'm not a Bitcoin maxi, but I'm a kind of, I'm a proof of work maxi right you know screw proof of stake i mean i don't mind proof of stake for for um for financial purposes but it should only be built on a platform it should be only built be built on a monetary foundation of hard proof of work because money because the creation of new monetary units has to come with opportunity cost it has to come with human toil it has to come with a human making a decision to do something with his time to impute value to his time and then tokenize it which is bitcoin does which is what proof of work does in the larger sense and bitcoin is the you know the best example of this um you know whether or not you know bitcoin is technologically capable of

you know taking us into the next age is irrelevant because we're not living in the next age yet and so the whole maxi argument to me is just kind of it's like it's like art it's like libertarians arguing about and capstan or you know um or communists are arguing about come the revolution like you know what we're going to do glorious workers paradise like none of these things are going to happen anytime soon these are processes that you move towards and you allow the market and you want people to figure out what technology is going to be best proof of work is the technology that matters here not the particular coin itself so yeah in my mind and bitcoin's winning the proof work battle that's like bitcoin's winning the proof of work game by by it may order

i'm not and i'm not uh i'm not against the idea of that well i'm just always willing to be i'm just always willing to be skeptical that that's going to happen like like i own everything like i know i like bitcoin i like gold i like i like you know i like some of the other coins like how am i a problem with that and i'm not a matter and i don't want to get into that weed because i just don't think that that's i think that's another one of these false dividing lines between people who should be agreeing right i think the whole bitcoin maximalist argument is just another purity spiral that leads people into bad places like let's not argue about that we both agree the proof of work is great let's like move on and go fight the real fight which is central bankers

yeah you know well this is yeah again we don't get in the weeds of this and i right people will consider me a bitcoin maximalist but i don't like purity tests either uh i just i i that's fine i focus on bitcoin and specifically bitcoin mining so i'm like in the bitcoin mining world buying natural gas wells and plugging in generators and mining bitcoin with it and sitting on the board of company of a company that's mining bitcoin in the us uh and but that's like so that's being a replacing central bankers that's what so the mining layer is going to replace the fed window essentially you're not going to replace central bankers in the sense So you have people actually dictating any interest rate associated with Bitcoin or the supply, obviously, but you'll have the window replaced where the facilitation and distribution of new monetary units happens there.

And then you'll have financial applications built on top of it. And when you play that out into the future, it's just like a really cool thought experiment to walk down is we're going to have energy companies replacing central banks essentially because energy companies have the lowest cost of energy. Energy production. Exactly. Yeah,

absolutely. I, my friend John Seth, um, uh, you know, calls Bitcoin an organism that, uh,

feeds on energy subsidies and kills them and kills them. It's a very, it's a very it's a very apt metaphor i really like that i really i really like that idea john says description john says description of miners as energy pirates is one of my favorite yeah yeah so it's it's it's a brilliant uh it's a brilliant observation it really is um and um so yeah i and you can see that happening all around the world and you can it's obvious you know i i find it really interesting to see how i've been saying this for a long time i'm like well this is it's an obvious play at some point for the Russians to turn around and legitimize Bitcoin mining

as a legitimized industry within Russia, because who has the lowest cost of energy generation in the world other than nuclear? Well, it's going to be the Russians in either oil or natural gas, because they pulled out of the ground for less than everybody else. And until the take comes when the ruble is so freaking strong, we'll cross that bridge when we get there, that it becomes expensive to mine Bitcoin in Russia. I just don't see that happening anytime soon. They literally pull it out of the ground for a current rate

somewhere between $7 and $9 a barrel. It's ridiculous. And even with tariff costs to the government, Russia's breakeven point is a sliding scale. But even at this point, it's like $40 a barrel. But if it gets below $40 a barrel, then the tariff goes away for $9 to $20 a barrel, depending on the producer. So it's ridiculous. It is. It's just truly ridiculous. So it's just why the Russian regulations on Bitcoin, while not good or perfect

from any anarcho-libertarian perspective, is a framework for legitimate businesses to go and go that forth, mine Bitcoin and add it to the existing banking system, and to allow the existing banks to act as intermediaries to get around sanctions and allow companies to to operate you know out of the shadows it's still going to tear the at the end of the day bitcoin's still going to tear the russian central bank apart but you know it won't but it doesn't have to do so tomorrow yeah that's how does this play out in the longer if bitcoin is allowed to proliferate as an industry in russia is that an erosion of of putin's power over time it's so far in the future that it doesn't matter yeah okay i mean let's let you know it's it's it's we're talking about something 10

years from now when putin will be out of power putin will be retired by then he doesn't want to do this forever if he's even alive by then if we haven't killed him by that like let's you know like let's not um let's not get again let's not get too far out of the world of reality you know let's let's just talk about it's like let's just talk about where the incentives lie today this is the way this is the world i live in right now this is the way i this is the way i analyze the world it's just to go through and go look at where people's incentives are at a particular moment in time and those things are going to shift as the rules change and as the conditions change as people react in real time to you know move counter move point counterpoint and so you could

see the russians for example now preparing for a war they knew was coming by finally pushing through uh cryptocurrency regulation and making it you know legitimate part of the banking system you know a couple weeks before the invasion they lifted the uh the vat on gold purchases so individual so you know russian people can go and buy gold without having to pay a value-added tax up front in order to in effect you know preemptively strengthen the ruble and or strengthen not the ruble but the russian domestic capital position by saying look you don't have to go trade out into dollars or euros or something else you can trade out into gold and it won't cost you anything other than the spread and that spread you know between russian gold dealers or between you

and the bank should be less than you know some foreign currency trader under sanctions so and that should keep the capital from fleeing once the once the war that they knew was coming started and the sanctions that they knew were coming came right so yeah that's it's it's fascinating i was going through your twitter feed this morning too preparation for this the chess moves are happening so quickly now you're talking about le pen in france um like potentially taking out macron uh and in here with like russia and everything going on it's it's very interesting to see this all unfold very quickly you have riots um and movements happening all throughout the world or like sri lanka whatever is going on in shanghai is just like another

added very well to the mix so you know it's funny marty i was you know before you know this morning i took a break working on my taxes which is always you know a vomit inducing experience i was doing that this morning too yeah it's terrible um to um to work on a blog post public blog post which i haven't you know written anything in a few days so i hate to not water the blog so i was working on a piece this morning i'm about half finished with it just trying to go through all of the regime change operations that are in play on both sides right now i you know i look at the situation as it stands you have imran khan was deposed in pakistan over the weekend we've got sri lanka i haven't even really thought about sri lanka but you bring it up it's a great

point to bring up that they're going to default on their debt you've got the obvious regime change operation going against putin right now with all the sanctions and everything else to try and get you know to try and impose regime change on the russians it's not going to work um you've got a potential regime change in anger in france you've got a potential regime change operation by necessity in the united states where barack obama is is clearly angling to get rid of joe biden before the midterms so you know all of the and and the way i was approaching it and trying to approach it in the article is to say look war is terrible war is never the answer and but you know underneath the fog of war is brings clarity to all the political positions

of all the people who are on the knife's edge you know as you know vis-a-vis this war so why they decided to go to war in the first place because everybody stayed everybody deciding on you know i'm going to war standing on a knife set should i or should i not you know step to the right and go to war except to step off the knife said to go to the left and back off in super peace and every and everybody in the west chose to step right while the russians were kept saying hey why don't we step left let's just agree to some terms and you guys back off in ukraine you know we'll sell you we'll sell we'll sell everybody gas we'll have a good day let's just end this and by going to war we now see just how tenuous the positions of various leaders are in the west

and how strong Viktor Orban in Hungary was for standing up and saying, no, I'm not for this war, and why Biden is in trouble for prosecuting it, why Boris Johnson is even in trouble, his poll numbers continue to drop, and why Emmanuel Macron is in serious trouble of losing the second round to Marine Le Pen, who's not like the greatest gift to France like since the Gaul or anything. she's actually really quite weak but anything would be better than macron um but then again i was listening to some commentary by alexander mercurius over at the brand the other day and

and he made a very good point saying that and i love alex i always like giving alex's do whenever i can um made the very good point that even if macron wins i don't know if he and martin armstrong also made this point which is even if macron wins the anger in france is so palpable against him that it may cause a you know a complete uprising within a year in france anyway that he may not even last simply because or a year or two or whatever simply because you know the french couldn't bring themselves to hold their nose and vote for the far right marine le pen who is anything but you know he's only far right in the minds of french communists um which is ridiculous that's like i know that's redundant but um and you know if they just if you

know if the people who voted for jean-luc melanchon the the kind of left populist who almost made it to the second round he came in at 22 you're only a point and a half behind le pen you know imagine if the scenario in mariupol with the french foreign legion and the french generals that were trapped in Mariupol, if that had actually become bigger news in France earlier in the election cycle, like a week earlier, and had become big news, Macron could have lost the first round. And it could have been Le Pen versus Mélenchon. Because it's really close.

It wasn't for basically the French boomers, because the only demographic he won was the old people. so everybody else is like we're done with we're done with these with these davos fuckers we're just done with these people we don't want them and um so the anger in france is so palpable that it could easily force a regime change and you know the end of the fifth republic in france and every young frenchman that i talked to and i talked with a few because i have a friend of mine locally who's french and you know plugged into this and he and you know and other people that i talked to all say the same thing they're like the republic doesn't work

anymore it doesn't function the government doesn't function it's even less functional than you know uh the constitution is here in the united states under the democrats which is obviously not the case here so it's really weird like where we are we're in this moment of time where this war has broken open and laid bare everybody's vulnerabilities including putin's oh yeah and um and um you know it's gonna be very interesting to see how this plays out uh because it could play out in ways that no one is expecting and um and if that is the case now which would be you know it would and i want and i'll be honest with you i hope it is something like macron gets overthrown mario dracchi gets overthrown in italy um you know the democrats

are in such disarray for the midterms they can't even you know cancel the election and you know under martial law because that's what they're going to try and do you know they're going to trying i mean they're it sounds like they're trying they're trying to bring covid back yeah so that they can you know they can you know print a whole bunch of ballots and just you know steal the election again yeah or well you have hunter's laptop becoming top of mind again it seems like so people are getting ready for an indictment there uh which is very interesting you had rep johnson i believe it was on fox news with maria bartur i forget i'm not going to pretend to pronounce her last name right now but bartiromo bartiromo um i'm italian

dude that's why it comes naturally they were talking about it seems like something's going on there yeah it's and then you had jen saki come out yesterday and try to prep people for the inflation print today that was an interesting tell there is how they were about today's and then and then gold broke you know broke higher by 40 bucks today yeah so we're watching gold today but gold gold hit like a high in 1980 and silver busted through to nearly 26 that's a big deal like silver is technically breaking to 26 bucks that's like kind of this it's got to hold it through the end of the week it's only tuesday so we have to get through friday where they'll come in and bomb the thing and you know move it down a dollar and a half in 20 minutes when because

somebody decided it's a good idea to sell seven billion dollars worth of silver in four minutes let's go let's go plays jingle bells what's your perspective on the precious metal markets where are comex and london metal exchange are they just pure manipulators like does oh yeah yeah can these can these precious metals break the manipulation um yes given the scenario yeah they can and the way they're the way it's and the way it's going to happen is it's a combination of things um and it's complicated because there's a lot of moving parts but But the first is that the Russians have effectively tied the ruble to gold, which then ties it to oil, which then ties it to natural gas, wheat, and all the commodity space.

So as Zoltan Tozar put out the other day in a note from Credit Suisse saying that we're on the verge of Bretton Woods 3, which would be a return to a commodity money standard, which I don't disagree with whatsoever, the Russians have made that now abundantly clear that this is the path we're going to take what putin has done is to do the exact opposite of what kissinger did in 1973 with the saudis to establish the petrodollar when oil was at its highest point had just quadrupled in price back in 73 that's when they pegged the dollar to oil right so what has putin done now putin has pegged the price of oil to gold at a similarly high price and now it's going to it's going to force the price of gold up to match the real cost of

extracting commodities no longer uh will the futures market be the price take price maker in gold and silver but it'll be the price they'll be the price taker as the uh the vaults on the lbma and the comex are drained or more gold has to come out of storage to flow through the system and because there's because one of the things about gold right we're all bitcoiners here we all know what stock to flow ratio is right which by the way is a brilliant idea by safety to moose and i absolutely um uh the minute i saw it i went oh my god so you're just going to quantify mises's regression theorem you're a stud that's brilliant i literally said that's brilliant right because you can now you now have a you now have a metric by which you can say something has

monetary character and you're going to assign a number to it right so higher stock to flow ratio equals higher monetary character and lower stock to flow ratio indicates no monetary character silver by the way has no monetary character it's not the flow ratios like litecoins it's almost zero okay so it's in it and silver has so many industrial uses that it's being out competed as a monetary asset right competition for silver is you know um is why it's no longer a monetary asset yeah it's got other uses well yeah the the whole silver meme that's been going around for the last few years. It's been an interesting one to me. I've got a silver bull cousin who texts me every once in a while. He's like silvers. I own silver and I like silver. And I think that silver when

gold gets really fricking expensive is going to go ballistic, but only as a function of the silver to gold ratio, just because people will be looking for value. They'll be looking for something that's undervalued. Okay. And silver can acquire temporarily monetary character during times of crisis at this point it did in 2011 going from four to fifty dollars like dude i was buying silver four bucks back in 2003 when i had black hair there like some of the same like the beard was still black like you know it you know i could only turn around go see that little bit of gray that's because i abused myself badly in my 20s but back in 2003 i was buying silver four dollars an ounce let's buy hundreds of ounces of silver four dollars now it's not dumb like this is

ridiculous it's not going to go to three and even if it does i'm buying a three and then what does it do it hits a p it hits a ridiculous emotional peak at 50 but it was never sustainable above 30 right so where's it now you said 26 dollars yeah about 26 bucks which has been the technically speaking been the marginal line for the uh the current trading range since the high the august 2020 high for both the precious metals when gold hit a new high at just short of 2100 and silver went back to 30. Silver has been trading at a very volatile range between 22 to the downside and 30 to the upside with the average true price being 26 bucks for a year and a half now, almost two years. When it breaks above 26, I would say on a monthly closing basis, if you're not buying

silver, you're an idiot. I don't give a shit what you think about silver. You can think it's the dumbest investment in the planet, but I got news for you. It's going to go to 50 bucks if it monthly closes above 26 bucks at this point. Just basic chart analysis and understanding into the supply and demand fundamentals, we'll tell you that. The macroeconomic space, especially if gold is going to do the same thing, if gold is breaking to new highs, eventually the silver to gold ratio gets so stretched that people just pile in the silver, and then there's no supply. And there's no reason to believe that silver is not going to benefit from the ruble being tied to gold either. Remember, just because we're talking about gold and oil and natural gas,

hey, the Russians produce a lot of silver too, by the way, but that's not the point. The point is that commodities across the board will be tied together against the price of gold. And if you look at the price of industrial metals across the board, every one of them has at least doubled in the past year and a half. Aluminum, tin, lead, copper, maybe not copper because copper is a different thing, but almost all of them, nickel, all of them have gone completely ballistic as supply chain crunches occur here. is the only one that has not really moved with the rest of the market. Now, part of that is because

of the chip manufacturing issues and the slowdown, the supply chain crisis within technology, which is where a lot of its end use is. Fine. We break that bottleneck. And why would you believe that silver is not undervalued at $26? The problem is, like everything else, there's a massive amount of hedging and rehypothecation within both markets that have just suppressed the price. And Bitcoin, by the way,

Bitcoin is dealing with all this now. Bitcoin doesn't trade like Bitcoin anymore. Bitcoin trades like gold. What's going on? It's been in this weird consolidation. We're at 39.804 here. It feels like there's no way it could be this subdued

in this range for this amount of time considering what's going on in the world. yeah yeah so let's go back to the bull market of 2016 2017. what broke the bull market in 2017 yeah cme yeah it was literally to the day yeah literally to the day the future started trading on the comex cash settled bitcoin futures started trading on the comex off chain cash settled futures were trading on the comex and bitcoin hit a peak it was done money started speculative money that used to have to go on-chain now could go flow around and all the big boys could go play around in that space. Well, today, we not only have that, we have on-chain settled futures. We have

all sorts of stuff going on. We have massive leverage on all these centralized exchanges like Bittrex and they're all like leaving my head at this point. Binance, thank you, that's the big one uh i could not for the life of me get bring binance out of my brain it's really sad um but yeah when you have all that kind of leverage trading going on when you have all this this stuff happening when bitcoin looks like your typical offshore greek forex market i got news for you there's a lot of people just moving stuff around it has and and at the end of the day on-chain statistics still matter and so eventually you will push um you will push the price down far enough eventually you will dry up the supply of sellers and then the thing will

explode never forget that all bull markets climb a wall of worry so you know i know i should be going along bitcoin at a moment in time when i hear a whole bunch of people talking about bitcoin going back to nine grand same way when people start telling me oh gold it's gonna go back to a thousand bucks and blah blah like i'm really fine bye bye like silver gets to 2180 and everybody's like you could go to 12. i'm like yeah putting it in order to app max right now i want you know i want some some pre-1963 dimes like it's not tough like it's a typical contrarian indicator when you get a market that bearish that you have nobody on the bullish side of the trade and everybody's bearish one buyer forces to sell two sellers to start covering and then all of a

sudden the short position is what is the fuel that drives the market higher off and off of that imbalance and so that kind of you know that's what the the professional guys like turk ferguson and others try to talk about when they're talking about the uh the in the when they're talking about the the positioning on the comex to try and figure out where the where the leverage is