TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #368: Powell's Shadow War With Davos with Tom Luongo

Episode Date: October 18, 2022

Join Marty as he sits down with Tom Luongo to discuss the monstrous web of events that point to the Federal Reserve's opposition to the Davos plan. Follow Tom on Twitter Tom's Blog and Podcast Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained Capital Braiins HodlHodl CrowdHealth TFTC Merch is Available: Shop Now Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel Clips YT Channel Website Twitter Instagram Follow Marty Bent: Twitter Newsletter Podcast

so freak shit your boy marty here to introduce this rip with tom luongo holy shit always interesting i mean it's the first time i've actually caught up with tom this is the second time on the show he came on earlier than year i believe in april to put forward his theory that the fed is embroiled with a fight against the davos class considering everything that's happened since april when we had our first conversation i thought it was a good time to catch up with tom and he's makes a very convincing and compelling case that this is actually what's going on right now these war games behind the scenes that me and you don't get direct access to tom has taken the time to work through the incentives of all the parties

involved in this dick measuring contest between giants fascinating stuff going on right now i think you guys are going to enjoy it this rip was brought to you by our good friends at unchained capital right down the hall from where i'm sitting right now let me clear my throat a little bit Unchained is here to provide you with the best way to buy Bitcoin. No longer are you going to need to go to an exchange, buy Bitcoin, have that exchange hold your Bitcoin on your behalf for a little bit. And then eventually you spin up a wallet, figure out how to get your addresses. You plug your wallet in, you copy, you paste, you send it all over. it's a long process it's a hard process unchained is here to make it easy

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and i like them you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free when you talk about a fed just gone nuts all all the central banks going nuts so it's all acting like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean that's part of the bull case for bitcoin if you're not paying attention you probably should be cigars lit we can go live not going live but we're recording this okay that's fine i mean i i will warn i am on starlink and it is a little overcast so if i flake out you may have to do an editor

or two here or there just so you know that's fine okay just want to let you know is spacex subsidizing your your starling like they are in ukraine no they're not absolutely not i'm not i'm not ukrainian that's the problem so you know if i was and if i was a neo-nazi and i was ukrainian then i would be getting free starling the uh yeah the backlash for him asking for the government to to pay him i thought that was brilliant on his part actually it really was very it was really very strong like i think he's he's playing a very interesting game muskets so well they're gonna come after him now it seems like they're positioning to tie him to putin oh yeah because well i mean every anybody who doesn't go get full-throated support to you know you grow nazis

and uh and world war three is obviously a putin puppet like duh just like everybody to the right of karl marx is a you know fascist who wants to put us all in camps yeah it's the weird thing about this year i mean it's been many years in the making but the binary options that individuals are given on all these issues and they're false binaries oh yes exactly i mean i wrote a newsletter about it last friday because we people need to understand that they're being put into this narrative framework from which they're given two options they're either pro-america anti-putin or pro-putin anti-freedom which is yeah well it's always been that way and that's that's the it's the Straussian thing like give them two choices you know one of which is wholly unacceptable the

other one which is you know no one even would have considered under normal circumstances in order to synthesize and get what they actually that's the Straussian to what I call the Straussian two-step or the it's really a Hegel over and over and over again it's just nothing new yeah the Hegelian dialect Hegelian dialectic what and what Leo Strauss you know taught an entire generation how to do so i like to call it the strousing and two-step just to you know give it a little flair just give it a twist like just give it a twist to get everybody to think about it you know what i mean well it's not fun if you don't if you don't put a you know you don't make it if you don't make it sarcastic it doesn't stick because like comedy is the best way to expose these people

so yes we need to ridicule these people more in a very cogent comedic way because you can only laugh at what's going on i mean they're well you can do more than that but you know we can cry about it but that ain't going to do us any good either right so no so outside of like the strassia model the the false binaries that are given to people like what are the other options in your mind uh well the other options is is to always you know ask yourself why are they pushing those two options on you right why are they trying to restrict nuance why are they trying to put you in one camp versus the other and taking all the all the other options away whenever somebody's giving you you only have whenever somebody's giving you an ultimatum it's because

they're in a weak position okay so by saying you're either with us or against us or you're pro-putin you're anti-putin or you're this or you're that by doing that what they're doing is giving you an ultimatum. You have two choices. You can either submit to what I say, or you can oppose me. And by defining everything that's not their position as wrong, then it takes away all possibility for negotiation, resolution, and everything else. And diplomacy is the art of negotiation right diplomacy is the art of saying all right well i hear what you want you hear what i want and what's you know let's work out an agreement that no one's happy with that's what diplomats are supposed to do do we see anybody doing that no it's been ripped off the table

and then elon is getting destroyed for tweeting okay here's probably what should happen that's exactly right that's that and that's and that is the mechanism of a bully and the mechanism of a tyrant and the mechanism of somebody who has an agenda that is not going to be tolerated, that opposition to which is not going to be tolerated, period. So they have their goal. So now it's just a question of whether or not they can, you know, beat it into our heads long enough and hard enough that we're going to go along with their goal. I got news for you. Fuck you. No, it's not doing it. Like, I'm just going to keep saying no. And I'm going to keep saying, no, there are other options. And we have to keep saying, no, there are other options. And

And when given the opportunity to just call nonsense on it, just call bullshit on it, go, no, you're just being a bully. And only bullies act this way. Only people with very weak positions act this way because bullies are ultimately weak. They can't win through persuasion. They can only win with the bludgeon. Brute force. In this case, it's a rhetorical bludgeon, and it's 40% bots on Twitter.

that's been one of my favorite trends in recent months is your quote tweet bot response call them out exactly there they are just bot well oh look the bots think they have friends now oh look the bots think they're alive now you just make fun of it

like again as always agree and amplify make fun of it and don't feed the trolls because when you meet you call them a bot even if they're not a bot god forbid you're you know if you get it wrong one out of ten times who cares like it's not like it's a person you want to talk to anyway it's like it's a person you want to have a conversation with like they might as well be a bot they're like i'm not a bot okay you're not a bot but you're

acting like one yeah in public no less never how little self-respect do you have never apologize to the bots so there's bots and there's npcs that are indistinguishable from from bots exactly exactly and so going back to like i mean i believe i know you and i hope you know that i am going to keep saying fuck you like you're not pushing us down this path doesn't make any sense it really doesn't make any sense to me do you think there's any penetration of this fuck you mentality eking into the broader populace as we send billions and billions of dollars over there with no accountability on the back end you think people are beginning to wake up to this insanity do you think or do you think similar to what happened post 9-11 leading up to the iraq war the propaganda

machine the war machine is being successful in ginning up hatred i don't think it's been successful at all i think it's been insanely unsuccessful all the polling coming into the midterms is they're the only thing less um on america's americans minds than the war in ukraine is the january 6th trials you're trying anything that's only slightly more on their minds than the ukraine war is abortion and these are the democrats you know three things they're running on like they're losing they've lost the pr war they sent zolinski on tour for christ's sake for seven months i said this in my ron paul talk the the ron paul talk in june i said they put him on

tour like he's shakira for christ's sake and it didn't work and he was taking his ass in public and doing the whole thing and you know and like tucker carlson's out there going who is this guy in a freaking t-shirt a green screen to shake us down for money right well he's got bono visiting him ben stiller is visiting him all the celebrities are going over there no celebrities are paid to do what they're what they're supposed to do you know it's uh it's all that's a big bill hicks routine you know what i'm talking about yeah it's uh well it's not the it's all a ride folks it's all suck satan's cock like it's all it's all bend the knee and suck satan's cock that's what this is about you know i i it's funny like as my as my profile rises i find myself every

once in a while just wanting to make sure everybody that i'm salty and that because i don't want it it's like i almost don't want to you know get too big too quickly like i want to make sure that there's enough backlog of moments where i'm like yeah i'm completely not fox news material yeah Because I don't want to, you know what I mean? Like, I don't want to be too big. I don't want to, you know, I just want to be, because that way I'm still free. I don't have to worry about them taking me out.

Because, like, you know, too many people, just enough people that I just got an email from a woman that said, you're brilliant, you're outstanding, but you curse too much. I'm like, sorry. Sorry for fucking cursing. I can't support you. I'm like, okay.

I've gotten that before. Yeah. It is what it is. Stop cursing emails. I don't know how often you get it, but I get it all the time. Because I used to curse a lot. I don't as much anymore, but in the newsletter used to curse a lot of people.

I do here and there. I mean, it depends on the podcast. It depends on the, on the media appearance, you know, it depends on the host and what they want. And I'm more than willing to be, you know, low energy and, you know, kind of what's the word I'm looking for fit for human consumption as it were. And then there are other times when I'm like, you know what? No. And I, you know, it's a, it's a thing you do. it's a it's a persona you play every once in a while just to make sure that everybody knows

what's going on and uh you know you you you i know that the persona should be consistent but at the same time i think it's maybe better you know sometimes to just let things fly you know when you can be because everybody is this salty when the cameras aren't taught when the cameras aren't right everybody is a salty we all you know we all act like you know especially especially high performance men, especially, you know, high alpha men, you know, and in high, you know, with, with high degrees of, of, uh, of competence, you know, we all just, you know, let the invective fly on a regular basis. We all say things that we're not supposed to say in public, but you know, something, you know, what, like it is what it is like, we all know it. So

why are you trying to, you know, why are you trying to censor yourself? Because you imagine what happens when the, when the cameras are turned off, you know, anywhere, like it's, it's, it's, is silly that's i was gonna say it's freeing let the tea flow and i think we're actually like reaching a point where like the talking heads on cnbc or bloomberg or the people who try to put on this perfect persona it's becoming so obviously un or excuse me inauthentic that it's like you can tell like because of independent media and people like yourself getting your voice and your perspective out there and people really resonating with it.

Like, hey, this is how I think they go and they'll see somebody talking proper on CNBC and it's just so blatantly robotic and scripted that people have, at least I do, have like a natural aversion to it. Sure. And it's funny, I just did a five or seven minute segment for RT International about an hour ago.

So I've been on RT, I think now, like three or four times in the last couple weeks, which is very nice and they're always very polite oh by the way the russian media is always very very polite and you know almost unfailingly polite and meanwhile the the you know i never get a phone call from the american media of course um and i you know i always put on the best i always put on my best uh my best front and um and do so uh knowing full well that i've got the non-salty verbal pattern, and I've got the salty verbal pattern, right? And you just, you have to practice both, you know, for every

moment. So, you know, whenever you're, you have to be able to shift with the time. And the best thing, of course, is to match the energy of the person you're working with. So today I'm working with you, you're laid back and, you know, thing, and we're going to do the thing, and I'm going to sit, I'm going to lean back in my chair, smoke a cigar, have a cup of coffee, and we'll have a nice informal chat. Well, I'm happy that you feel this way on this show because it does bring out the best uh of the guests it's just comfortable we're here to have a chat no censorship don't self-censor because the world is crazy right now and people need good information which is what i think you've been providing and why

i want you back on today's but we're not today specifically but now considering our first conversation was in like april or may of this year and you put forth your your thesis that What we're witnessing is, at least in financial markets, is the Fed versus Davos class. And everything that has played out since then with the rate hikes, inflation, with the posturing from the Fed, particularly right now, seems to be pointing in that direction. So very interested to get an update on your thoughts on what's going on behind the scenes because it's getting chaotic. It seems like the Fed is dead set on just completely breaking credit markets at some point. in the next quarter i think i i think they have to marty this is the thing this is what i was trying to say earlier in the year and even when we you and i first spoke back in april and may

um i wasn't i don't remember if it was april or may but i remember let's look at the beginning of this year i i was as hawkish and you and i hadn't spoken then we weren't in each other's orbit then but you know with my patrons and you know informally I was saying to people, yeah, I can see the Fed doing the seven, 25 basis point rate hikes this year. Go to 1.75% by the end of the year. Everybody, you know, many of the people I talked to said, no, they'll do two or three or they'll even get to 1% and then they'll have to give one back and they'll do this. I'm like, I thought I was being hawkish at 1.75 to 2% by the end of the year. Privately or internally, I was like, Powell, you need to go to 4%.

You need to really take these people down. If you're the guy I think you are, you need to go to 4% by the end of the year. But politically, I don't know if you can get away with that. I didn't understand the plumbing of the capital markets, even as well then as I do now. And I don't for the for any, you know, for any large values of competence. So I believe that I'm competent and understanding that the the plumbing of the capital markets, I've never wanted to be that guy. Right.

I never wanted to be a guy who understood these things this way. I've had to learn it, you know, slowly but surely. At times, I've even worked as a guy who thinks he knows something about the plumbing of the financial markets. And well, then, you know, behind the scenes going, OK, clearly this is what's happening and you need to understand this stuff better. So you need to get into it more.

And thankfully I have the greatest patrons in the world because they're all inspired by what I've talked about and gotten them, their brains firing and their brain cells are popping off left and right. And they're saying stuff and they're bringing ideas to me. And then we're riffing off of each other back and forth and our private chat server and our private community.

And lo and behold, I'm having to up my game in real time. and then look for better indicators or create better indicators to see if I'm right about this stuff, you know, and take my own intuition and my ability to, you know, understand and map everybody's incentives and then see how it plays and see how that all, you know, distills itself down into actual movements, actual actions that you see in the real world, statements made by certain people, actions taken by other people in response to actions taken by somebody else. So every time Jerome Powell makes a hawkish statement, Janet Yellen's always there a week later trying to undermine it, right? Well, it doesn't matter what the actual effect of these

things is, right? What matters is that every time Powell tries to do X, Yellen tries to do not X. Which is very interesting, considering Janet's a former chairwoman of the Fed. She handed it over to Jay Powell. And you don't really see that much interfighting between Fed governors or some, at least chair. and the treasury department yeah right and the and the treasury secretary it is very weird and as opposed to just going back and defaulting on well they've always you know gotten along in the past and they've always done blah blah like no something's different you have to be willing to just say something is different and the problem is and this is what i've been trying to um illuminate or elucidate for people is that maybe the factions you thought existed weren't the factions that are the factions that actually exist maybe there's something else going on here

like as a libertarian you know in philosophically and and as a as an austrian economist you know by training by personal training again no degree in economics or anything you can't you know can't point to my resume and say, see, I've got this great resume and blah, blah, blah. And because of that, I can use the appeal from authority perspective. I can't do that. What I can say is this, but what we learn in both by mapping things both as a libertarian politically and as an Austrian economist economically are the following, which is that incentives matter. People always act in their best, always want to act in their best interest, even if roadblocks are put up in front of them to keep them from doing what they want to do in the most efficient

manner, right? So regulatory capture, Davos is really good at putting up a roadblock from you doing the thing you want to do, right? It doesn't matter what it is. And then you have to then create a workaround. And that workaround is then, you know, creates an inefficiency, which raises the cost of doing the thing, which effectively is a barrier to entry and keeps certain small players out of the market and advantages their guys at the at the expense of uh of the little man of anybody challenging their um their regime and so you see yellen and gensler and other members of the of the american government or you see you know the same thing happening in britain or you see the same thing happen in germany or see at the u level or whatever and it's always the same

thing over and over and over again so everybody who engages in that particular behavior is clearly working for davos and just run that as your heuristic and then just say okay is that does that track and if it tracks if the gloves don't fit you got to acquit right i mean if it keeps tracking then you just keep doing that until something something changes and whenever you see somebody not doing that and you got to assume that they're fighting them and you don't always get every one of those right you're not always right this is one of the things i used to you know i remember telling mike shedlock a long time ago like mike it's really simple my my argument is that these people are trying to fuck us all the time i'm going to be right 75 of the time just

assuming that whatever they want to do is bad it's a good assumption right i mean it's just to start there and then if you're wrong 25 of the time you're still batting 25 you're still about about 40 percent better than everybody else who's only right about 35 percent of the time yeah you know so go ahead sorry i was gonna say on this particular tip like fed versus davos it seems like you're right you mentioned yelling in the the treasury that's just one entity trying to undermine them but then i mean in recent weeks you've had the un and the imf come out as well essentially begging the fed hey reverse your your rate hikes and obviously we've seen interventions by the bank of japan bank of england and many other now all those interventions are slightly different yes

the bank of japan is acting as the fed's wingman by the way whereas the bank of england just took down their uh the new government in order to betray brexit and put the uk back in the fold with the rest of europe and this has all happened since liz died and charles has taken over is that is he involved in this in some way oh oh fuck yeah charles just over the weekend with the with the resignation of quartang as chancellor of the exchequer and liz have and liz trust having to put in jeremy hunt who's as big a remainer and as big a you know uh an oxford blue blood you know uk freaking oligarch simp as you could possibly imagine um as the as his replacement clearly they're they're moving and then you go look at the polls in britain and you know

conservatives are now polling at 25 percent labor's polling at 52 percent how can the people latest latest polls i saw this morning on europe elect is uh europe elects is uh on twitter is uh now going back into the eu is now a 59 41 i could people look at the eu and be like i want to go back to that especially with because they've betrayed brexit at every turn and they've made break they've made the life in the in the uk worse since brexit than it was before brexit and now that you're and now the and now the middle of britain is has shifted at least according to the polls Salt the polls to taste. I'm not, you know, remember the polls on the eve of Brexit were that Brexit was going to lose 55-45 and it wound up winning 52-48.

So, you know, there's lies, damn lies, statistics in British polling in that order. So, you know, it is what it is. But I don't know. What I'm saying is they've clearly shifted popular opinion in this direction. It's been nothing but, you know, as the English would say, a dog's breakfast since Boris Johnson took them out of the EU with Brexit. We always knew that the EU would never stop to try and get them back. The British aristocracy was all remain. The crown, other than Liz, was remain. Liz was not remain.

Liz was the only one trying to you know trying to preserve or get back British sovereignty so why she and Trump got along and it's why they were desperate to keep Trump

from meeting with the Queen I didn't realize that remember when Trump went to meet with the Queen she she must have yeah what happened they worked for weeks to try and block Trump from even going

into Britain. They didn't even want to give the President of the United States a fucking visa into the United Kingdom to meet with the Queen. Okay? Because, you know, Donald Trump isn't a real U.S. President. He's not an acceptable U.S. President.

This was their argument. Yeah, he's not well put together enough to meet the Queen. it's not dainty enough but he'll he'll embarrass the united states how can you do this blah blah it was just it was just awful no what it was is they didn't want trump and the queen to work out a way to you know fuck the eu and screw everybody else over now what a shock six months later we get covid but even with that like let's say the davos class has made gains in terms of brute forcing

their agenda but again a lot of people myself included make the argument they're doing too much too fast then you have these two parallel things running right now which is this social aspect which is the dabba's class trying to implement their communistic system on on the world but then you have this elephant in the room which is the global financial system which seems to be in a very precarious situation are the two intermingled is it the great reset destroy the financial system so that we can usher this in, or is it an untimely coincidence for the Davos class where they're going to have to juggle the social ushering with a financial calamity and people are going to be like, hey, you sort of created this, why won't we go along

with you on these social aspects? Well, I think the problem is that it's confusing because in order for the Fed to beat Davos, They have to engender a financial crisis that will look like the one that people think Davos was trying to institute on their own. So it's going to look that way. Same thing with them arguing that Putin gave them the war they wanted by invading Ukraine. So therefore, Putin must be a WEF shill because he gave them the war that they clearly wanted. right he gave them the war they wanted so that they can have a war that they can use to cover the insolvency and the collapse of the of the western financial system but they never wanted

it to happen in these terms you see they always wanted it to happen on their time in their way with their parameters ring fenced the way they wanted it and the way they wanted it was that Europe would collapse last, not first. The Fed raising interest rates the way they are leaves the European Union and old European money center banks really vulnerable, really vulnerable. Whereas American banks,

and you can argue with me all you want about how American banks are vulnerable. Yeah, they are vulnerable, but so what? they have the fed who can make infinite amounts of elastic money the ecp doesn't have that opportunity doesn't have that ability it's not the same institution at all and i think people need to wrap their heads around this it ain't just one big club if you're sitting there and you're jp more i keep saying this you're jamie diamond you're the head of jp morgan chase you're one of the main shareholders of the new york fed and these euro trash freaking german commies

and old colonialists who your dad fought you know who's who the who jp morgan himself fought 120 years ago to have an independent banking system of of the of from the uk you think that there i mean like it doesn't make any sense we've been fighting a way out from underneath the british crown and from the old european colonial powers since the day cornwallis surrendered to yorktown for christ's sake these people i mean hamilton was working for the crown for fuck's sake he's on the $10 bill still beholden to a degree and so what so let me just finish let me just kind of finish that point real quick which is that and then i'll happily turn the mic back over so when you really start thinking about it this way

the fed has the ability to engender a crash in bond in a sovereign bond crisis but remember what we saw in britain just the other day with the pension funds blowing up because of the run on uk guilt right there was a run on uk sovereign debt at a time when the pension funds were weak because they're already down 30 in the equity markets are down 30 on their bond holdings, right? They're already down 10, 50, 25% on the pound itself. Pound's down from $1.42 down to $1.10 before, or $1.14 before the run on the pound that two weeks ago that brought it to $1.04, right? Think about that. So all those British pension systems, we're now looking at massive margin calls, massive collateral calls. They either have to get rid of these investments,

which they're upside down on, or they've got to somehow call up collateral from the companies that you know who that they they manage here right that that matter whose pensions they manage well who was not willing to throw a post post collateral for these you know these leveraged debt instrument investments the one who issued them blackrock who's blackrock working for davos the boe comes in and gives them a lifeline for a couple of weeks scaring the markets and then says all of a sudden says nope you've got until friday three days that was a that was a coup attempt the boe executed a coup attempt against the against the trust government used the cover of the announcement of trust's budget and tax scheme

as the means by which to run a an operation an economic hitman style operation on the british pound and the UK guilt market. And guess who that was a warning to? The Italians. Because when Maloney's government comes in and she's going to go and try and do the same thing, try and put up a fiscal plan together to save Italy, what do you think they're going to do to her the same they're gonna run the same operation they're gonna try and split the coalition right when it gets when it gets it gets formed and then turn around and say oh no she's not accepting see she doesn't know what she's doing then you get backstabbing within the you know the the coalition forza italia maybe turns on her but gotta gotta gotta and then what will

happen mattarella and the and the the roman mafia political mafia will turn around and go look we're going to give you another technocratic government a la Mario Draghi, Mario Monti, Renzi, and everyone else so that Italy does not have an elected government because they haven't really had one since 2011. And nothing will change. And they'll threaten them through the bond markets. Now, Maloney, if she's smart, will just slow her roll.

We'll see. But this is all playing out exactly. But that maps with all the factions that I've laid out. trusts wanted energy security for britain open up the exploration for oil and gas do away tracking ban right turn britain into an energy exporting powerhouse over the course of the next 10 years lower taxes and lower regulations to un to un fuck the british economy which is stuck in first gear because of all these latent um ties to the eu that still haven't been worked out post brexit right so that was the plan she had a perfectly good

plan and at the same time she's dealing with massively high energy prices so of course okay we're gonna have to spend some money that we don't have by subsidizing people's like you know electricity bills for maybe a year or two it's gonna be bad for the budget but we can get through this with the united kingdom for christ's sake it's not like they're freaking venezuela yeah it was really interesting how quickly they tried to like she put in those those tax breaks and then the week later the pound crashes the gilt market crashes they tried to correlate it to that directly yeah and they did they tried to sell they so they just timed it to the announcement and then ran the operation and i don't know what what operation they ran but somebody obviously

ran the the stops on the uk gilt market somewhere and you know it wasn't hard to do at that point That's the way it, you know, and then they just write then they just write bogus headlines for the algorithms to to react to, which they did. How effective can this be? Because it seems like if they want to mess up trust, they want to mess up Maloney. Is there a timing aspect here?

Like, how long do they have, particularly in the sovereign debt markets, because it's getting pretty precarious even here in the United States, rates are getting astronomical. The amount of interest payments alone is going up. significantly a lot of a lot of the uh treasuries are due to mature in the next three years like it seems like a pretty massive the way you describe it a pretty massive game of chicken with high stakes at every turn and something could go wrong somewhere i i think it is a big game of chicken and the big question then is daniel d martino booth i don't know if you've

watched the the the interview she gave over at head dry the other day uh with keith mccullough i watched it and it was literally like she was telling me you're right but you missed this this and this so young padawan go learn about these things leverage loan debt you know the the whole the the federal the federal reserve is not fighting inflation by raising interest rates because the fed mostly owns tips not treasuries most of their treasury portfolio is in tips and guess what happens when inflation goes up what the tips do tips go up in value value yeah right they don't have the inverse correlation right the inverse inflation goes up then the value of the tips bond goes up in order to offset the loss the the purchasing power loss through the cpi the yield

loss the rise in the cpi so i didn't know that i i don't ask me why i didn't know that probably because i'm just too freaking lazy to look it up fair enough but booth made that point the other day and i was like oh well that again so the fed instead she used the words the fed is not fighting inflation by raising rate hikes which is exactly what i've been saying for a long time keith mccullough followed up by saying well then what are they doing she's like i can't say trying to break credit markets i can't i can't tell you that no it's clearly what she was trying to say was they're trying to destroy the euro dollar markets they're breaking the offshore credit markets not the not the domestic credit markets the offshore credit markets they're trying to break the hong

Kong peg. If you're a neocon, they're trying to break Europe. If you're a libertarian case, Europe is because Europe is the is the more perfect communist union, so is. So in this case, you're like, and this is hard for me to grow because somebody's been writing about it and thinking about it and was radicalized when I was 17 in the wake of 2008. The Fed is the good guy for freedom in this case they're the good guy for in the fact that because their incentives are existential to fight davos that they're the better choice now but they're still acting in their own best interest they're not acting in our interest they may be it's very possible that they're looking at this going well you know we can't we can't continue to run our

grift if they don't have access if the people don't have access to our banks so they you know cause von commie schnitzel he wants to do away with all that and just you know give it to the fed but the fed isn't really running it doesn't really run a grift in that respect because the fed is ultimately it's an ultimate government institution ultimately because the fed's not allowed to post a profit that gets distributed to shareholders it all goes back to the treasury the benefit to the new york banks where the shareholders are that they have access to the fed discount window they have access to i mean maybe they there's some kickbacks to them ultimately you know in reality the the lion's share of what the fed earns goes to the treasury

department on the you know like no it's indirectly does wall street benefit from all this of course I'm not saying Wall Street doesn't benefit, but not in the, you know, the Fed makes $100 billion on their portfolio every year, and then that gets distributed directly to the shareholders. No, that goes back to the Treasury Department, right? So if you do away with the commercial banks who own the Fed and they don't have any secondary bennies from being shareholders in the Fed by being able to use Fed policy to, you know, feather their nest, then where's their incentive structure to still be shareholders of the Federal Reserve? It doesn't exist. So what you're describing, the alternative that Davos wants is the CBDC that cuts out these banks. Right. You don't have the two-tier transmission system where you've got the central banks and the commercial banks and then the commercial banks and us and the overlap between the two rings of the financial system or the two transmission belts of the financial system.

It's two different gears. You've got a gear over here between the Fed and the commercial banks, and you've got a gear over here between the commercial banks and us. They want to collapse that into one gear, and they don't need the commercial banks anymore. so why are the commercial banks so why should they even own shares in the federal reserve so why would why would jamie dimon give this up oh is that why would john solomon give this up he wouldn't jamie's been a bit fiery too i mean you've seen him come out in congress and call out idiotic energy policy say drill baby drill really i mean he's himself has been posturing like anti like let's not repeat he's been with their posturing anti davos for

three years now it was his bank that refused to start ex he was the his was it was first jp morgan in 2019 they started the news they started that request your zone debt is collateral for repos yeah he was the first one to deny them dollars yeah because they rotated out treasuries over the course of that year then when you had that overnight repo spasm it was because they weren't providing cash to that market anymore they weren't providing cash to the markets of the fed had to yeah but if i look at this and i say and i said back then i said well that'll give us about six months a la 2007 2008 because the repo market blew up in september of 2007 and then bear stearns was vaporized in 2008. so the fed stepped in and created about six months worth of a halo effect

but didn't fix anything and then there was going to be another crisis and lo and behold in 2000 march of 2008 as far as i'm concerned that was going to happen anyway they just launched covid to take everybody out yeah covid is a big side covid's a big financial psyop guys not saying that the virus wasn't real and we all didn't a lot of people didn't die or any of those it was that too but i personally at this point am firmly convinced that the purpose of the true purpose of covet was to put a to drive a wedge between trump and powell get the cares act passed and force the fed to monetize a whole lot of debt that they didn't want to monetize powell was not consulted about any of this he fought against the cares act and

all of that shit tooth and nail go back to that that time period he was not happy about this he had to go along with anyway because he didn't have any options because congress spent the money the cares act gave black rock access to the fed funds window to go start buying up commercial residential real estate all over the united states and and crowding out corporate private bonds too right corporate bonds too and they got access to the plunge protection team the equity the equity portfolio for the plunge protection team. Yeah. I mean, the convenience of COVID

and the ability to turn on the money printers in late March, early April 2020, and that also basically creating amnesia for what happened in September 2019 is very, very perfect. and think about this the um that all happens and they can get rid of trump and what happened that was a davos wet dream i guess who didn't print money the guys who didn't agree to print money until the middle of 2021 the european union hmm the fed they were able to hold off that one printed seven trillion dollars six trillion

dollars the europe didn't i remember having peter bookbar on my podcast and i was talking about that i was trying to bring these ideas up to him he just dismissed every goddamn one of them said yeah but we printed seven trillion dollars in the and the ecb printed 600 billion so who's balance sheet is in better shape than ours than than than ours theirs is so he was like there's no way that the euro is going to collapse there's no way this is going to happen the fed does he literally said to me go back and listen that i don't think that jay powell gets up in the morning gives up gives one damn about europe at all i'm like i think you're wrong it was not it was not a fun conversation by the way it was it was it was one of the few times when i really had to be

i had to hold my tongue against the guest and um i thought by the way i've turned out to be right no offense to peter but you were wrong Well, now I'm just playing this out in my head. So, Powell, just to try to understand your thesis and your perspective, Powell essentially had to wait for COVID lockdowns and the scare around COVID to basically go away. And then, obviously, we printed trillions of dollars, and the justification for rate hikes were there. And then he used that as an opportunity to turn it up to 11. what he did was he waited until 20 the june of 2021 when the european union was now ready to start printing money and to make the big pitch for we're going to set global monetary policy

and coordinate it for climate change and he stood up and said no two weeks before he raised the reverse repo rate five paces points above the fed funds rate and ended the bull market in the europe those two things are correlated in time right around june 16th almost perfectly it funds the fed meeting happened the same day that biden was in geneva meeting with putin to stave off world war three then the euro collapsed three cents that thursday and friday the fed made their announcement on wednesday zero hedge ran an article i ran a big nothing burger of a fed meeting except they raised this one little technical rate five basis points and i went huh and then the euro collapsed three percent and then the reverse repo facility started blowing out

and then every day it was another headline reverse repo um rolling uh balance is 700 billion dollars nine hundred billion dollars it hit a trillion dollars oh my god now it's 1.5 trillion dollars blah blah blah now it's 2.3 trillion yeah i was gonna say it's two it's above two now and if you don't think that that that liquidity that that isn't money that the fed can dump into the market at a moment's notice yeah in 15 months if the banks need dollars they can go they can give treasuries back to the uh see the reason they needed to do that was that during covid the savings rate in the united states at 30 percent normally it hovers between five and seven if it ever gets above seven percent the fed likes to engage in qe by the way

go look at it okay i'm trying to understand that because even a restatement of of u.s personal savings rates over the years because they've restated all the data it used to be about five percent now it's about seven and a half percent but i have a i have a 12 14 or 12 year chart now 14-year chart of when qe starts and stops versus the savings rate the united states so qe starts around above seven percent savings rate and again the rationalization signal yeah right too much savings is is bad so we need to we need to we need to get that money flowing people are saving too much so let's get that money flowing okay we're gonna and qe is the way to do that by putting money into the system even if it's only sterilized

money and you entice people to get money off the sidelines they'll put it in equities or whatever because they know the fed's printing and they'll drive up those values so with the reverse what's a reverse repo a reverse repo is simple when the when the um when the savings rate is high the banks don't have enough collateral don't have enough um collateral to for all the savings they to hold treasuries on their balance sheet as reserves to cover the savings or they've got to lend those that money out right and then they can keep the loans on their books as the reserves right what if they don't want to lend because the lending environment sucks what do they got to do they got to get treasury somewhere who better to get them from the fed

who's got this big pile of treasuries they've been sitting on from all the years of qe the reverse repo is the bank buys a treasury and gives dollars back to the Fed. So the Fed's sitting on $2.5 trillion with the money. The banks are sitting on $2.5 trillion with the treasuries to keep the treasury markets liquid. As the savings rate fell, now the need for reserves technically isn't as high.

But that money's still not coming out of the reverse repo facility. Why? They're getting paid five basis points over the fed funds rate which is still better than lending it out into the market yeah yeah so how does this play out what are they like what like in your mind i haven't even explained half of this fucking story yet that's the worst part about this this is the problem is that this is that complicated right marty i'm not that's i don't mean that again this is not

about my ego or any of this shit this is about what i've had to do in order to try and like make this thing fit all the pieces together well i'm sitting here and i want to understand how does it play out it plays out that the fed has much more room to raise rates than anybody ever thought i saw you tweeting you think they're going to go to seven percent at least six percent yeah i don't know about seven i mean everyone like i don't ever take me seriously like about that stuff because i just send numbers out there just to tweak people it's like oh you think you're triggered at four three uh three and a quarter percent fed funds right you they're going to six six what are you kidding me you're a lunatic i'm like okay maybe but i want people

to think about it like i do it on purpose it's it's it's just performance art you know in a certain i don't know what the number is going to be it could be four and a half it could be five i don't know what it is it's probably going to be between four and a half to five percent if all they do is raise the four and a half five percent and hold it there for six months or a year is that a pivot are you kidding is that air you think you're breathing no it's not a pivot five percent on the fed funds rate for fuck's sake get over yourself holy shit dude come on you were thinking everybody was screaming in january they go to one percent they'll crash the markets and they'll have to give it all back go back to the zero bound

we were at three percent nobody and nobody's died yet except except europe sri lanka the the the bank of england who were had an operation run on them but it's all europe that's screeching lagarde is running out of lagarde is the one running out of room at dcb she's the one who can't hold on the credit spreads she's the one who's watched her currency over the course of 18 months sorry 15 months dropped from a dollar 22 to 96 cents and her and the yields on her debt at the same time mind you go from negative 0.6 percent on the german bund to 2.3 percent on the german bund tenure yeah they're getting squeezed you don't think carry trades have been blown up interest rates swaps have been blown up

like you don't think all this stuff is like everybody's hedge books have been blown up Well, that's great. Yeah. When you factor leverage into the equation as well. I haven't even taught leverage yet. Right. And who's stuffed in the gills? All this leverage free and sovereign debt.

The sovereign debt instruments. Yeah. I mean, that's the people part of the problem, right? Who are who are in worse shape having been stopped, who have been stuffed into all of these leveraged debt instruments. the ones whose interest rates were even lower than ours you're negative yeah 12 trillion dollars worth of negative yielding european sovereign debt at one point now imagine you're an italian pension fund or you're a german pension fund searching for eight percent yield and you're

and the the balance of your and like the the marginal balance of your portfolio like the the stuff that matters where you're getting most of that yield from it's a bunch of ldis you bought from blackrock you know that are that are now down 35 percent and then you factor in and the fed wants to go up another two bit two whole 200 basis points on the fed funds rate and you don't produce anything and you got no you have an energy crisis you've just you've decided not to buy energy from russia while you blame the united states for your policy this is the part that like drives me up a fucking wall everybody's like oh the united states is trying to destroy europe yeah no shit good why do you care it's the ussr for

christ's sake germany's the fourth reich there are they're militarizing again does anybody happy about this shouldn't we be trying to destroy these people they're all commies klaus von commie schnitzel has a bust of fucking lenin on his desk on the shelf behind his desk his favorite economist is a french socialist by the name of thomas picchetti who's you know the who's only distinguishing characteristic is that his economic theories are even less less penetrable and and and and less logical than Keynes' were. Yeah, what was his book called? Thomas Piketty?

The Capital in the 21st Century. Yeah. Very long book, basically. Bad book. Impenetrable. Nobody reads it. Nobody read it. It's like 900 pages, right?

I'd say most likely Klaus read the CEO bullet point, Cliff Notes version. Well, now, let's go with that. Yes, we will go with that. That sounds good. I can't even do a bad German accent. you're gonna eat bugs like you know come on like this is coming but i mean it's not even that klaus is anything other than the friggin you know pr bond villain in this mi6 story like this you

know this this bad mi6 screenplay it's clearly it's you know all the old all the old european money it's the british crown and the old europe the old dutch banks and italian banks and german banks and austrian banks and spanish banks and french banks that's what we're dealing with here we're dealing with all colonial powers who do don't want to give up their neocolonialism and still think that they can use the the dumb aggressive yanks to do their bidding and i firmly believe that they're trying to get us into a world war while they destroy their middle class so that they can um they can discredit us completely and make us the most hated people on the planet and they're succeeding at that except that the fed is going to break them first

this is very interesting like because this theory outside of you i have not heard anywhere well if you listen to the the the hedge eye interview with daniel d martino booth she's on it yeah i honestly think that well i honestly think that if you listen to her talk the things she's not allowed to say are all the things that I'm saying and I didn't believe that until I watched it

and then I watched it and I'm like yes I will grow a little tail to be your Padawan like I'm good like you know what does this mean for like so many sitting here individuals watching this it seems like there's this huge dick measuring contest

between the people who run the world and we're we're just beholden to this dick measuring contest well it's how i described it when i was on the best way to describe it i think the first time i i did this at least in a in a in a recent interview i was i was trying to explain it to tom woods on to a bunch of libertarians so i really dumbed it down to you know just talk about incentives don't talk about you know just talk about the people and their incentives and all of this stuff i said look Just think of it this way. Yes, giants are fighting. The gods are fighting. We are ants trying not to get stepped on.

We don't know. They are fighting for their own purposes. We may or may not benefit from one winning versus the other. We will most likely. I'm going to be honest with you. we know what it's like to live under these people these neocolonial powers centered around Europe and the euro dollar and the euro dollar system

we know what that looks like endless friggin war endless conflict and a stepwise march towards global technocratic communism While everyone was winning They were all willing to go along with it Including the New York banks

And all the rest of it And the Saudi sheiks and everybody else The ones who were not willing to go along with it Clearly were the Russians Because the Russians were primary commodity producers Who were being told You will supply all the oil And the gas and the coal and the aluminum

Along with the Middle East eastern european you eastern europeans that we've brought in that we've brought out of communism you get to be our shoeshine boys and you get to cook our meals and you get to clean our toilets well no that's reserved for the africans that they brought into europe um because you know please um and uh we have a plan for the future that involves us putting up massive toll booths On the next iteration of the world's economy. Which will not be based on oil because we've decided that since we don't produce any oil, you're not allowed to produce any oil. Europe doesn't produce any oil and gas anymore.

And what they and don't and like in any appreciable amounts where they can feed themselves. Not unless the population of Europe wants to go back to 50 million people. Do they produce enough oil and gas and coal to feed themselves? They could if they wanted. So what's that? Well, not really. I mean, the Brits have got a lot. There's some off the coast side, but I mean, if the Norwegians had more oil,

Statoil wouldn't be, you know, wouldn't be investing in African, you know, oil, you know, oil things off the coast of Cameroon and shit. I mean, they wouldn't be doing that. Statoil, the Norwegian state, you know, petroleum company, the equivalent, the Norwegian equivalent of Rosneft, would be investing in domestic exploration and production. But they're not. And it was a big deal, like, you know, seven or eight years ago, even 10 years ago,

when Statoil started making investments overseas. Everybody's like, why is Statoil doing that? I'm like, because they don't have any more frigging oil. So even the vaunted Norwegians, and to the lesser extent the Finns and the Swedes, you know, the Scandinavian oil producers aren't really producing. don't really have access there's plenty of there's a lot of oil off the north north coast of scotland which the eu has told scotland not to develop and they don't want to produce oil and gas they want to move us to a nuclear hydrogen economy

because they know that they have demonized uranium and nuclear to the point where no way will we be allowed to have any kind of privatization of and decentralization of the uranium, the nuclear power market? It will be tightly controlled, more tightly controlled than the more regulatorily captured than the oil industry currently is. If you think oil, if you think big oil is big and dangerous, forget it. Big uranium or big thorium, 100 times worse and then big hydrogen as the fuel to put in our cars we're not going to be running around with with batteries in our cars we're going to be running around with pem fuel cells and tanks of hydrogen which we're going to get from it which we're going that's their plan

and it's and it's not a bad plan i don't have any problem with that plan i have a problem with that plan being where we don't have control over the production of the electricity and the hydrogen which we could do at our homes with, you know, modular with 10 kilowatt, you know, PEM fuel cell technology that's been around from plug power and all these other small companies, fuel cell energy and others for 15 years. These people have had this stuff. It's out there. And guess what they run on?

Propane. You can split a hydrogen off of, you can cleave a hydrogen off of propane in a PEM fuel cell. and generate electricity and hydrogen that way. You can do it. They don't wanna do that. Why don't they wanna do that? You know the answer to that. You know the answer to that.

So this is the big plan. And they were hoping to crash everybody else because if they can invalidate the United States and they could destroy the United States, culturally, politically, economically, in every way, right? Regulatory, legally, destroy the 50 state compact necessary all of this stuff they can do that then where's capital not going to flee to when

europe starts to collapse the eye it stays capital stays in europe prices don't collapse completely they're able to muddle through and all that had to happen was that the russians would knuckle under the russians were actually helping to enable this for years by selling gas to europe for so cheap but the europeans voluntarily gave up that arrangement why because russia won't refuses to be conquered they still want to be able to supply oil and gas on their terms i can't believe these people don't these people don't believe in anybody else having control over their destiny so russia gets to produce all the cheap commodities China gets to produce all the cheap plastic crap

The Africans get to clean the toilets The Americans get to be their Their army Their enforcement arm Eastern Europeans Get to be the IT guys I'm trying to think

Through the conversation from the American Perspective like at some point Jamie Dimon The commercial bankers With access to the Fed like you said like when everybody's benefiting everybody goes along with it but at what point did the americans stop benefiting and fighting back like what was it was it covid particularly was it no it was before that they saw it they saw it all

the time so part of the thesis that i haven't presented today or the argument i haven't presented today is the difference between sofr the secured overnight funding rate and libor Right. Now, LIBOR, the London Interbank Offer Rate, has been the debt benchmark for dollar-based lending since the 1890s. Completely rigged market. It's been completely rigged market, but most importantly, a completely London and Europe controlled market. Okay. So the argument that the Eurodollar system was actually setting monetary policy far more than the Fed was setting monetary policy was correct. Jeff Snyder, formerly of Belomber Partners, kept talking about this for years, where Jeff made the mistake, is believing that

the Eurodollar system, he said this. So I'm only quoting him now, but I'm going to throw his ass under the bus too because i don't give a shit i want to win i i want i don't want to eat bugs so i don't give a shit who's those toes i step on i'm not eating bugs either no i'm just not bugs i i like steak too much fuck them go and jeff said this he said when the fed started raising interest rates and he really started getting antsy about what was happening and banging his shoe on the table about how terrible all this was he said you don't understand the euro dollar system is the free market reaction against the federal reserve against the central banking system

that's bullshit that's up that is tell number one that jeff snyder is as either is either owned and operated or just as an operative or is just too friggin stupid for all of the smarts to understand that this is not a free market system this is a system controlled and created by oligarchs for oligarchs to control the central banks and control national policy and undermine national sovereignty. More so than the central banks actually are.

Because if you have a transnational shadow banking system that doesn't respect borders, controlling all the individual country's central banks, then how is that free market reaction? off of the central bank creating the liquidity? Yeah, it doesn't seem very free.

And we have evidence of this super national, I mean, the Bank of International settlements. Have you ever seen all the plenaries men that dives into the HSBC fines

and how the BIS basically stepped in and said, hey, U.S. Treasury, we're not going to respect your laws. we're just going to hit these guys with a slap on the wrist Mark Carney had to step in all this shit right so

back to SOFR versus LIBOR I said as of January 1st 2021 all of the US debt will now be indexed to SOFR LIBOR will be phased out and LIBOR as an instrument will lose all of its US dollar LIBOR will lose all of its liquidity

by the middle of next year oh by the way and um why sofa is important is because when the fed in the past whenever the fed raised interest rates and everybody else was all the debt in the world was indexed to libor if london banks caught a cold because the fed was raising interest rates libor would blow out to the upside which would then come which would then translate across the atlantic to american banks who may or may not have had any trouble with loan servicing because what if the british economy was in the shitter Fed raises interest rates, but the American economy is in good shape, right?

Well, you raise interest rates. The Fed raises interest rates by 2%. LIBOR blows out 100 basis points above that. And what's happening over here is then our banks have to respond to that because of LIBOR. All of our banks have to, and all the debt that was written as a premium or discount to LIBOR, also have to adjust your credit cards, your HELOCs, your adjustable rate mortgages, your credit revolvers if you're a corporate. They all move up and down every quarter. right so even if the underlying even if the issuer of the credit revolver isn't any doesn't need the money but it goes up it's libor this is the contract it's just math it's just code at that

point code gets executed so now that same debt in the united states is indexed to sofa so first the Fed funds rate, SOFR is independent of whatever happens with LIBOR. Now, I'm not saying that that has actually borne itself out yet, right? Because if you watch the way SOFR versus one month LIBOR has traded, what LIBOR has been doing is anticipating the next Fed funds rate hike. And then it rises as a premium over SOFR to approximately what it expects the funds rate to be the the new one to be and then then the spread collapses so it goes up and then down up and down up and down right but at some point it's going to rise above that because the actual money markets are under stress because there's no other sources of dollar liquidity

natural interest rates and what you'll see is you'll see that you'll as opposed to on the day of the fed funds meet a fed fomc meeting as opposed to libor trading 85 basis points over so for anticipating 75 basis points by the fed you'll see a point you say 100 basis or 125 basis points 150 basis points and when that happens that's when you know then you're the the gnashing and wailing of teeth overseas is going to be insane what you see between now between fed meetings is always libor trying to hold back that anticipation for as long as possible holding that spread to like six eight ten basis points and all of a sudden it's gonna start jumping four five six basis points a day to and it goes right as opposed to being a nice straight

lineup yeah right so the point being is that europe's banks can now get in trouble and since the fed has all this liquidity in the reverse repo facility standing repo facilities all this shit they've got all the tools they need to keep the markets as liquefied as the banks need to be they have different tools than they had in 2008 that are designed for today's environment which is fundamentally different than it was back then yeah basil three banks are better capitalized it's not a housing crisis it's and basel three changed the rules on gold to advantage the ecb because they're trying to they need part of what keeps the fed the confidence in the fed high is a low price in the price of gold basel three was designed to change

the way gold trades and is held on the balance sheet so that unallocated paper gold or unallocated But futures gold contracts, gold futures contracts can't be held at par as bank reserves anymore, meaning physical gold is an only allocated physical gold can be used as a source of net as FSR funding stabilization ratio. So it's favored. And that's the net funding stabilization ratio, which is basically the capital adequacy ratio under Basel III for Basel III compliant banks. Meaning that Europe wants a higher physical gold price. Why? because all the $4.88 trillion worth of European sovereign debt and corporate debt and swap and central bank swaps that's on their balance sheet are all falling in value as interest rates rise.

As rates rise, the price of those bonds fall. So the ECB's balance sheet is actually falling. What they want is to have a higher gold price to offset the loss. The Fed, of course, doesn't want a higher gold price because then that calls into question their ability to be a good steward of the dollar. So by the Fed raising interest rates, they create a massive demand for dollars, which continues the rating of the paper markets in gold for dollars using the gold futures market in the United States, which is mostly cash settled, and in London, mostly cash settled. right um as the piggy bank to get dollars in an emergency because it's the easiest way to get dollars sell gold by by dollars easier than selling anything else almost almost the easiest trade in the world it's even easier than certain treasury maturities so

So Basel III is designed to help the ECB get through the current crisis. And the Fed is raising interest rates aggressively to drain the euro-dollar markets, destroy bank gearing and access to credit, dollar access to credit and dollar gearing overseas, drain the shadow banking system. and force, while at the same time having the tools necessary to insulate the American banking system from Europe's collapse, which the Fed is engineering. And what's the source of power of all of these fucking old inbred assholes

all across Europe? The euro-dollar system. Where is Charles' real power as king of England? it's in their it's in it's in the the british crown's wealth portfolio it's fascinating because you have rumors swirling last week i believe that liquidity for gold physical was drying up between lma and comex and then obviously at the fed so it's yeah it just seems like you're you're seeing these these blows in real time most people unaware of the game that you're describing here oh yeah and the the comex and the lbma are getting drained yeah and we're

going to go to a physical market soon there's no doubt right and i you know the russians are setting up a physical gold exchange the chinese already have one singapore's got one dubai has got one i mean the fed's game about you know holding the price of gold down is going to end certainly i mean i don't have any doubt about that but and the reason and again the reason why the ecb wants a rise in gold prices because they mark the gold on their balance sheet to market whatever the market price for gold is that's what they do so the ecb is getting squeezed at every every moment here they're getting squeezed on their sovereign debt by the fed they're gonna squeeze on their gold right they're squeezing the fx markets squeezing the fx market

Squeezing the energy markets. They're getting squeezed pretty hard. It's almost like Putin and Powell are coordinating policy here. My wife's coming through in the background. So how does this play out? How quickly does it play out? How slowly does it play out? I don't know.

That, I mean, again, I would love to give a name or name a date or whatever. But let's look ahead to something you talked about earlier. um the united states is staring at the beginnings of a big rollover period starting next summer a lot of u.s debt has to be rolled over next summer the treasury's gonna have to do so much higher rates the effect on the budget now has been bad it's going to get incrementally worse if not a lot worse when a lot of that debt has to be rolled over that's why janet yellen is talking about now buying back some some debt right yeah weren't they asking the banks like right do you want to buy yeah she asked the banks last week

like would you want us to buy some of these treasuries from you sure um right because but they're still they're still you know and and u.s gross tax receipts this year hit a massive record like 4.8 trillion dollars that should and yet they want and yet they want to raise taxes again like I have no you know like there's many ways to get out of this Marty well this year is gonna be interesting is you know the capital gains taxes which make of a material portion then you have people being exacerbated by inflation you have to imagine oh yeah the tax receipts are gonna roll over badly next year they're gonna be terrible next year but right now they've got they're

actually flush with cash they can actually they can actually if if the people in dc actually wanted to be pro-american in their policy and i'm talking specifically about democrats and rhinos then they would be proposing tax they would be proposing spending cuts regulatory cuts and tax cuts but they're not they're talking about everything else they're talking about the exact opposite of that. Yeah. Inflation reduction came with some interesting. Yeah. Like spending. Yeah. Are you kidding me? So these people are vandals. They work for a foreign power and that foreign power is not China. Fed policy is destroyed. Fed's hawkish policy is doing, you know, is having bad effects

on China. But at the same time, ready? The Chinese are gearing up because they know that the United states no longer wants to be the holder of the global reserve currency at least the federal reserve doesn't powell talked about this he doesn't want it he doesn't want to he doesn't want to manage the global reserve currency anymore he knows it's a bad idea he's always known it's a bad idea he knows he's always known it's been bad for the united states he's even said at a humphrey hawkins testimony last year or earlier this year there's more than there's room in the world for more than one reserve currency okay china's gearing up to become uh becoming a regional reserve currency for asia by the way so is the ruble to a lesser extent

what does china have to do in order to to pull that off they've got to massively print you on yeah they got to do while everybody else is tightening while everybody else is tightening the pboc has the opportunity now especially with xi just being elected leader for life which is which translates in market speak to political stability that would make sense because if they want to reserve currency they got to flood the rest of the market they're going to have to flood the world and and then sell them if you want basically you know um you know chinese yuan debt yeah they set up the infrastructure belt and road initiative

where that makes it very easy just to get in there. Recycle trades, pluses and all the rest of it. Yes. So it's here. It's all common. How does the United States get out of this? Well, they collapse Europe and destroy it. And Europe, I hate to say it, Europe deserves it. I know, no, you vote.

I know none of you voted for it, but none of you also were able to get over your own internal divisions to actually Vote in people who wouldn't betray you by leaving confused electorates and election results that allow Davos to construct weak coalition governments that do their bidding and freeze out any populist parties or neuter them, as the case may be. like i hate to tell it i hate to tell you this to you but you got no one to blame but yourselves even though yeah and your and your leadership is just as traitorous as ours same thing in the uk everywhere else i i feel for everybody but at the same time

you know as a game player as you know as the board analyzer like this is the world and you guys had the opportunities to get over your own sense of european-ness and say i not gonna vote for those guys germans you had the opportunity to vote for afd give them 30 of the vote and shut the greens down and you did you voted for greens you voted for the spd the greens and and the free democrats and the greens are gifting you with an energy crisis and not only that they're gloating in the middle of the energy crisis too this is good yeah no it's the same thing i can look at spain i can look at um oh sweden finally got their heads out of their ass the italians got their heads out of their ass but you know you've got deep state i mean if you think the swamp is

deep in dc like like come on dude we're pikers compared to rome well they can do it but they've got to hear they can get a government elected in but they can they may not get past the mafiosi in overarching mafia in rome that's the problem and that gets really freaking murky like i mean i could do another hour on just that alone um so you know when i look at this you know i have both sympathy and no sympathy like i don't have any sympathy for anybody who votes republican straight down the line if your option is mitt romney and some other rhino for senator in utah no you vote for the libertarian if he's on the ballot you write in no one otherwise you do something or better yet you storm the bastille and you tell

mr romney like you know that's it but i understand at a certain level we all feel kind of powerless about this and i understand that politics got us into this mess it's not going to get us out and i've got all my bromides for this shit i i get it but part of me also just looks at it and goes very dispassionately at this point and goes yeah it's a big shit sandwich we all have to take a bite now what are you going to do about it like the french know how to throw a party but i mean you know that was actually do you follow uh michael bolden from the 10th amendment project or 10th a little bit i i know the name i haven't followed i haven't followed him closely but i i but i like the 10th amendment project yeah and the uh i watched one of his youtube

videos over the weekend the four principles needed to stoke revolution that's like again going back to the bromites about you're not going to fix the political system via the political system via voting you really need to engender a movement of ideas around like hey like this republic was started and the government wasn't supposed to have anywhere near the power that it has today you live under the largest government that's ever existed in the history of humanity that is that would cause the founding fathers to shriek and again going back to like you can't vote your way out of this i've been convinced of that but the only way out is to engender this idea revolution where people wake up and say hey i have a 10th amendment i had those states have

their own rights they're like i literally just need a tipping point of individuals in the united states specifically to stand up and say no you're not gonna or back politicians in at the state level that are that are winning and i look to my own home state the state great state of florida Florida man is awesome we have Ron DeSantis and Ron DeSantis is reminding everybody that state governments are powerful and they're more

powerful than the federal government if they just say well you know if the federal government is going to fuck us then we don't want their help and we'll rebuild I mean what he pulled off in like you know Fort Myers area after Hurricane already like getting the Sanibel causeway rebuilt in three days

like dude are you kidding me well it's like putin rebuilding the kirk straight bridge in four days right road traffic across the kirk straight bridge was resumed within a week okay this is what happens when you don't have a whole bunch of people actively trying to stop things from happening for political reasons to feather their own political nest when you break through the mafiosi and you break through the union bosses and all the rest of them because they didn't get their you know their envelopes of fucking cash when the florida governor walks in with the friggin national guard and just starts getting shit done and you're like oh it's actually not

that bad i guess i don't get my envelope of cash to go lay concrete yeah you don't fuckhead now go now now get out of here before i put your ass in jail like people you know this you know this is the beginning and this is why they're deathly afraid of ron desantis and um well with the world going to shit with the energy crisis the economic crisis i mean the opportunity has never been better for people to recognize the power that ron desantis has within his state like i don't even think he should run for president i think he should just stay in Florida. We don't want him to run for president, even though I think that him and Tulsi Gabbard

are the perfect unity ticket. And I said this earlier in the year. I said this at the beginning of the year. I said, the perfect unity ticket is Tulsi Gabbard running as the VP for Ron DeSantis. And she runs and she handles the foreign policy. He handles the domestic policy. They run a Reagan. They run a Reagan Volcker. And again, I said this a year ago, like 10 days after Powell raised interest rates by the reverse repo rate by 5% five basis points oh I can see how this plays out yeah it's setting up a Reagan

Volcker style revolution and it's now playing out now and I'm not the only one saying it anymore and now either because they've listened to me and now we're parroting me or they've come to those same conclusions independently great I don't give a shit doesn't matter I don't want the credit I don't need the credit my ego is my ego

is good enough like it's it's it's it gets fed every goddamn day I don't need it what I need is for people to realize that this is the fight that we're in and like you said i agree with you a revolution of ideas that is and a revolution in the way we think about the way the world operates and we use that as the means by which to um really fundamentally change the way we um approach all of this stuff so that we're not sucked in by the stupid little if not a then b false dyad psyops that they lay in front of us which you and i opened the show with and that's the important thing to understand the strassian two-step that they run on us every day

and they run multiple layers of on us every day you just have to say no that's that's that's not not that's that's nonsense i'm not i'm not buying that and i'll be honest with you as i said earlier i really do think that for the most part american people get it and and i think a lot of european people get it too and then you know these the the i'm consistently amazed at the whitewashing of the media whitewashing of the the the extent to which european people are taking the streets and revolting and you never see anything like it's amazing like the yellow best protest never ended in france never i was over there i saw it firsthand yeah that's the thing like with the whitewashing and like the glossing over them really not

highlighting it does that it does seem that there is a material amount of people beginning to wake up and recognize the game that's being played and try to get this idea revolution going like it seems like we're at i don't know if we're at a critical tipping point but we're definitely at a point where it's like okay people recognize this now just how do we i don't want to say organized because organized brings bad connotations with it but like how do we be sure again increasing the moment we have all we marty all we have to do is keep putting the the our own individual pressure and burble it up through the zeitgeist like that's that that's the real power because that's decentralized that's something they can't stop okay and eventually it burbles up to people like

elon musk eventually burbles up to other people who are in positions to change yeah the narrow changed the conversation completely yeah we're seeing this i mean at state treasuries like louisiana south carolina divesting from blackrock it's a great signal right there it's a beautiful signal yeah especially since i think blackrock's the next lehman but again i'm running out of time unfortunately i've got a i my wife and i made a uh i uh weirdly enough i'm talking about all this stuff but i made an appointment to go to go look at a goat this afternoon i might have to i have to run in a couple minutes we go and go look at it and go look at a buck um because i need a new breeding book so well let's end it with just like a little

teaser on the blackrock theory sure um i'm gonna leave i'm gonna leave some some people with some with a little bit of thought everybody's worried about blackrock and they're eight nearly eight trillion dollars worth of assets under management that's nice but what does that mean this is a company that makes between 95 and 100 billion dollars a quarter in asset management fees Right. Tip. I want you to you don't have to be an MBA to read BlackRock's balance sheet and think about what it's gotten itself involved in and invested in over the last couple of years since it got access to the Fed funds window. since I got access to all this stuff. Now look at his shareholder equity. All of BlackRock's money

is built on $38 billion with the shareholder equity. I'm sorry, dude, but that is not a lot of money in an interest rate rising environment when you are heavily exposed to real estate. Yeah.

On the balance sheet. Corporate debt. That's not looking good. All right. a good note to end it on black rock hood especially since jp morgan goldman sachs citigroup what'd they do to lehman brothers see ya they took lehman brothers down and took all their business yeah they took their book of clients huh interesting all right that's the way i look at it i'm like if i'm diamond i'm like

i know how to fuck larry fink yeah hey fink suck satan's cock uh larry's backed himself into a corner like the esg narrative's failing so hard it's beautiful to see he back he backed up the truck on davos winning in 2020 getting rid of trump and everything else and now he's trying to figure out a way to get himself out of it he had a few period i'm telling you family offices are looking for new places to invest money um 401k contributions are going to start dropping pension systems are going to go are going belly up he's going to be asking for a ballot everybody's expecting that he's going to go to the fed and ask the Fed for a ballot, and he thinks he's going to get it.

And I'm telling you, I don't think he's going to get it. I think what's going to happen is they're going to carve him up, and they're going to take him out. I want you to go look at BlackRock's stock chart. I did this for my patrons the other day. I looked at the Q3 close, so the end of September, the last week of September. That was a breakdown on the stock, technically, below long-term support on that week. But it also translated to the monthly and quarterly chart.

BlackRock is right now tracing a bankruptcy chart, or at least a move back down into the 300s. And he's had that city analyst come out and downgrade their stock, basically, purely on the, I don't even think looking at technicals, looking at the ESG narrative and saying this narrative is failing. It's backfiring. Sell the stock. Because when it comes right down to it, people who control real money don't like losing 35%

because of virtue signaling. that's one of my good calls from earlier this year who knows if it was individuals like yourself myself others bubbling up signal that esg is bad and creating this market sentiment and it's like guys but i said on stage i saw it last year firsthand at the bitcoin 2021 when they were discussing esg and esg compliant bitcoin green bitcoin and all that stuff and i just looked at i just and the mood in the room was like yeah it was it was not good it was so not good i'm like yeah i love these people this all the glitz and the glamour and the and the vegas of miami at bitcoin 2021 and all of a sudden i'm like and there's i'm still seeing that whole phone

freaker freaking mentality and i'm just like oh yeah this culture hasn't changed uh we're gonna destroy sg we're gonna beat davis we'll eventually beat the fed as well we will be free and then we'll yeah it's like look like let the fed do our job for us in the short term and then we'll turn on them yes i'm you know i have my i have my goals so we've got a battle of ideas upon us freaks let's get absolutely all these good ones bubbled up because uh i have a two and a half year old and a four month old and they will not be living in a world where they're debt slaves and digital slaves so two and a half that's a great that's a great age that's great once they hit three they become the most interesting little people so good for you man i'm

i'm so happy for you i didn't know that's great um i only had one and it's you know my big regret didn't have kids earlier so thank you for that go get a goat all right gotta go but you be well um so everybody you can you know do the thing you know we'll link to everything you can find me on twitter you can find me you know my my uh my blog is tomolongo.me you guys know where i am your twitter handle doesn't do you any favors it's it's very hard to remember 1728 it's an old it's my old handle from ages ago it's your aim because when i when i i refuse to change it so i love my I love my Twitter handle because everybody needs a good George Lucas reference in the morning. Yes, but when I'm going to try to, like, search you, I'm like, what is it?

T-F-L-T-N-L. I can never remember. It's my initials. I know. It doesn't do me any. And that's actually good. I like it that way. That's good.

All right. All right. Marty, you take care. You too. See you, dude. Be well. Thank you.