TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #483: Bitcoin Is The 7th Largest Base Money In The World with Matthew Mežinskis

Episode Date: February 21, 2024

Marty sits down with Matthew Mežinskis to discuss the Q4 2023 monetary base update. 6:25 - Cloward-Piven and immigration 30:22 - Top currencies 38:45 - Inflation rates 46:59 - NZ bankers go mask off 54:14 - Fedwire vs Bitcoin 1:17:14 - Power trend line 1:26:53 - Does the ETF change things? 1:29:43 - “All assets” chart 1:35:23 - Federal debt 1:48:25 - Building the roads 1:52:21 - Russia 2:07:05 - Wrapping up Shoutout to our sponsors: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠River⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Unchained⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Zaprite⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Bitcoin Talent Co⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TFTC Merch is Available: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Shop Now⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the TFTC Movement: Main ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YT Channel⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Clips ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YT Channel⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Website⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Marty Bent: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

it is that time of the quarter monetary base update with our good friend matthew mazingtious incredible as always and he's got some new charts in this one some of the most bullish charts i've seen in some time in bitcoin thank god we have individuals like matthew and matthew particularly who does the hard work of diving into the data that other people don't want to surface and you came with some pretty good data bitcoin has already surpassed fedwire in terms of transactions processed it's more than double right now which no one was really looking into matthew did you have to listen to find out exactly what's going on there but extremely bullish apples to apples comparison of bitcoin to

other base monies particularly the u.s dollar and its settlement network and fedwire bitcoin is already doing better it's undeniably better money in some regards in all regards but objectively with facts that that matthew brings in this episode it's proven out love that man this room is brought to you by good friends at river river just announced they give a $50,000 grant to bring they are giving back to Bitcoin core development they built all their infrastructure on top of Bitcoin which is an open source protocol

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tell them the tftc sent you and don't buy fake bitcoin buy actual bitcoin hold it unchained makes it easy speaking about holding bitcoin accepting bitcoin as payment one way you can do it is buy it roll over your ira dca into it or you can accept it as payment if you're a business owner go set up a zap right account zap right is an invoicing software that allows you to connect your bitcoin wallets whether that's on-chain wallets lightning wallets so the wallet agnostic they've built an incredible software suite it allows you to plug in your wallets and invoice people for your business to send payment links they've got a woo commerce integration and the best part is you can accept bitcoin alongside fiat so you can connect stripe

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a dentist a rancher a podcaster you need to start accepting bitcoin now zap right makes it extremely easy you send somebody an invoice say hey do you want to pay in fiat maybe it's like 10 more if you're paying bitcoin it's 10 10 less paying fiat there's a premium paying bitcoin you get the actual price it's a great way to accumulate bitcoin on your balance sheet as a company so go to zap ZapRite.com slash TFTC. Sign up using the code TFTC and you're going to get $40 off their annual subscription, which is $240 typically. But if you use the code TFTC, that'll be $200 for your first year. ZapRite.com slash TFTC. This report was also brought to you by our good friends, Bitcoin Talent Co, a Bitcoin recruiting firm built by Bitcoiners for Bitcoiners. If you're a company

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So go to bitcointalent.co. Tell them that TFTC sent you and enjoy this rip with Matthew Misencius. You've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free. When you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts. So it's all acting like safe haven. I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.

I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. And now we're live. Take two. Yeah, buddy. We're back. This is the only episode we do live streams for. It's that special.

I love it, man. I look forward to these. I do, too. When you texted me last week, I was like, ooh, it's time already. It felt like we just did the last update. Was it last month? It had to be. No, it was in December.

No, it would have been in December. Yeah, it was a little bit late, that one. Usually November would have been better, but it depends for the old monetary base update. That's a big one. it is 50 currencies a lot of currencies a lot of a lot of scammy websites that you have to go through to crash all the time we try to get the data it's not easy well god bless you for going through all that i'm not so bad it's important bitcoin it's the seventh largest seventh largest base money in the world right now six largest if you take out it is getting very very real

you know feel free to feel free to pontificate any more as we've talked about but i mean we're getting very close to passing up the old pound sterling and the last mid-major currency before we get to the big four it's pretty well and it's funny that we're about to pass the pound sterling i'm not sure if you saw it yesterday tucker carlson did an interview with glenn beck uh which he was explaining that he wanted to have boris johnson on his show to explain why he decided to disrupt potential peace talks between russia and ukraine and boris johnson said hey if you want me to interview you i'm going to need a million dollars i'm going to need them in u.s dollars gold or bitcoin and the former uk prime minister did not want to take his interview

payment in the british pound sterling very interesting fact he wanted and tucker published published that yes oh my god wow well yeah there's lots to say about tucker as you know our part of the world we might want to hold off on that actually let's hold off on that every every day i am glad that russian bombs aren't dropping on the baltics uh our ukrainian friends aren't as lucky and we're going to do all we can to help them but we might want to hold off on that before we you know the geopolitics usually comes later in the base money update right it does but we can start with geopolitics here in the u.s okay which is what we were discussing before we hit record i was telling you i fell down a rabbit hole last night somebody sent me a screenshot

of the Cloward-Piven strategy. Logan, pull it up. And this sent me down a rabbit hole. So here in the United States, obviously we've got a lot of things going on. Our debt's exploding. It's a bunch of illegal immigrants crossing the border. And somebody said, hey, you may want to write about this

in the bent this week. So the Cloward-Piven strategy is a political strategy outlined in 1966 by American sociologists and political activists Richard Cloward and Francis Fox Piven. it is a strategy for forcing political change leading to societal collapse through orchestrated crises the clower pivin strategy seeks to hasten the fall of capitalism by overloading the government bureaucracy with a flood of impossible demands amassing massive unpayable national debt

check and other methods such as unfettered immigration check thus pushing society into crisis and economic collapse by overwhelming the united states it seems to be happening though this is a bit tangential to the rabbit hole i fell down last night i started googling cloward piven strategy and came across a youtube video um of a debate between thomas soul milton friedman uh the woman i forget her first name but piven who's part of this one of the uh creators of this strategy and some british dude like a 10 minute debate really interesting and then i just kept watching these free to choose videos it seems that milton friedman hosted a really good show back in the 80s just having good socratic debates around economic

topics why don't we have this anymore well it's moved online you gotta watch tftc you gotta watch tftc and uh follow bitcoin pods it's you know the uh the milton friedman free to choose series are wonderful. I highly recommend them to any aspiring young liberty seeker and someone who wants to understand free market economics and Bitcoin, free to choose series are wonderful. Milton Friedman got Arnold Schwarzenegger into it. It was great. I mean, everybody just loves Milton Friedman. There's a famous quote actually by the first prime minister of Estonia after we broke free from the russian chains in 1991 1992 and the only book on economics that he read was free to choose that they turned it into a book it was like a series and a book as well

and um and people asked him later uh why he had chosen let's see if i can get this right people asked him later why he had you know read that book and followed the uh you know the free market recommendations that Milton Friedman laid out people asked him why that that he did that and he said well um it was the only book that I ever read and then he said I did that because I couldn't find I'm gonna mess this up I messed it up basically the bottom line of his joke is he's like i i realized uh i totally messed it up it's a great joke it's a great line basically he says no the u the u.s basically no one was doing it so we decided to do it and then i realized that basically the u.s isn't doing it either and it's a obviously a little tongue-in-cheek because the

u.s of course uh doesn't follow these wonderful free market policies that milton friedman and many Austrians espouse and that's of course the joke is that you literally had to go to the small country of Estonia to see countries that were going to enact these policies and they did and Estonia is a wonderful gem of digital capitalism free market capitalism and there's a lot of interesting things going on there yeah no it's funny this debate conversation I guess you can called a debate in the series with piven that's what it all revolved around was the subject was um what is equality when we say as economists we want equality is it equality of opportunity or quality of outcome and uh piven the socialists were saying we need equality of outcome because

the free market enterprise as it is set up today does not enable true equality from from an opportunity perspective and this is where thomas soul and freeman were coming in and saying uh agree but they would argue that we don't live in a free enterprise society the ratio of free market control over the economy versus government control the ratio skewed too heavily toward the government and so you don't get the true equal opportunity that that you would expect or indexing towards equal outcome and it's crazy that we're still having these debates today because it seems i think thomas soul is probably the sharpest in this particular subject like it seems very clear to me that equality of opportunity is the most

important thing 100 and uh i've said this on your show before uh eastern europe if you're going to get into the the woke debate and you're going to blame economic problems on race color creed culture whatever it might be you only have to look to eastern europe to see that we are the biggest antidote of this nonsensical argument uh eastern europe was trapped under the iron curtain for 50 years didn't want to be just happened to be that way because you know that's how the the borders fell after the nazis were destroyed and uh you know this the iron curtain fell socialism was completely the norm in eastern europe for 50 years unfortunately now there's like this gangster sort of socialism in russia so they have not gotten rid of it but as far as

all the other eastern european countries uh you know if you're talking about say my parents generation someone's grown up in the 50s and the 60s they were poorer than my grandparents generation someone who was uh growing up in the 30s 20s and 30s and that was a first like anywhere that was just simply a first and so you can never forget that uh the soviet union is the best example of all this and by the way you fools we were all white we were all white it's not about race it's not about race it's about economics it's about freedom it's about liberty so it's it's just not about race yeah yeah it's uh it's daunting here because the whole political climate in 2024 here in the united states is

completely insane chaotic when you look at the border that's why like if you pull that tweet back up that's why i think this person sent it to me is because the one strategy the clower pivin the one variable the clower pivin strategy is to flood a nation with illegal immigrants this is where the the waters get muddy it's because obviously there's a flood of illegal immigrants coming in which is not good but it leads to racist undertones and completely throws the baby out with the bath water and connotates all immigration is bad and that's right the very confusing part of the united states right now is we should have legal immigration and there are many people that are trying to legally immigrate to this country but

um the amount of illegal immigration that's been enabled under the biden administration is so beyond the pale that people are just like whoa what the fuck's going on you see all these racist reactions going and just coming out from people who are worried about what's going on they should be worried it's not good you're i mean new york city is literally not even checking ids they're handing ten thousand dollars in cash to all these illegal immigrants that are coming into their city and as a taxpayer whether you're in new york city or any other part of the country who's looking around saying hey i'm getting crushed by inflation right now my job prospects aren't good like what the fuck is going on how are you just letting millions of people come in

and handing them money that i coughed over from my hard work yeah you got to sign the guest book i mean there's no there's just no way around that and this uh what's his name the homeland security guy who was uh yeah what's the latest there i mean i haven't from from eastern europe i get a little bit bored with some of these i think he got impeached he got impeached last week first um first time in 150 years only yeah first time in quite a while yeah by one vote that a cabinet official has yeah so at least there's some recognition but uh the problem is long out of control and it's amazing that chart is amazing how stark it is under biden so yeah um yeah it's it's not going to be good for the election you're going to have

more fakery and uh that's just the u.s has a big big problem there yeah and it does make me wonder that's why i fell down that rabbit hole like is this strategy or the obviously biden isn't doing any of this he's completely mentally disabled but the people behind him in his administration like are they filled with a bunch of socialists who are intentionally employing the cloward piven strategy because it seems like if you look at the debt illegal immigration it's pretty much by the playbook as laid out by cloward and piven in the late 70s yeah that's scary dude uh i you know i'm not sure i can add much more other than the there's there's always been this is a hot topic on even free market libertarianism right is border

border security and there are good arguments on both sides because of course if the culture is is uh is working well with immigrants and immigrants can come to do things that say locals don't um you know and it's a free market and everything and you you know you don't have subsidies and welfare and handouts and everything and you have to actually live on your own uh you know productive capacity there's arguments that uh that open borders are fine but i think in the world we are in just like with so many other problems today the world we are in in 2024 it's very hard to see that the open border policy specifically the wide open door policy that the u.s has on its southern border is just not something that's going to work and it does

make me think like i don't have a definitive answer to this i'm going to talk to peter todd actually on our next episode of crypto voices he is the exporter of ukraine uh as i as am i obviously um but the questions that arise about multiculturalism are difficult there and even you could talk about like what's happening in israel um i don't want to go into all this and i don't imagine you might not either but let's talk about all of it let's solve all those problems yeah exactly uh but the main question like with with israel for example okay i am going back to what i usually say to you and i know you might not agree with this often and it seems like it's getting worse but the u.s is strong institutions are strong

um states rights are strong i know i agree with that i agree states are strong every show you have you're getting more and more disillusioned with the u.s government i know this but compared to where i am man and the bandits we got to deal with in you know the ruski mirror the russian world it's it's pretty it's looking pretty nice still but anyway the point is the u.s really was exceptional it really was over the last hundred years uh it was a melting pot new york's beautiful all this stuff there's just no way if you look if you talk about israeli politics not even talking about the war just talk about israeli politics there's what seven million uh i believe it's seven million jews israelis and like two million arab israelis i'm not talking

gaza i'm just talking to israel proper there's no way that that state would ever allow an arab majority and then you can or vice versa they've all been kicked out of the arab states there's no way that any arab state would ever allow and i think they're all gone anyway they've been kicked out in the back in israel there's no way that a jewish minority could ever occur in any arab state but then you have to okay so those are like the hardcore extreme examples but then you go like to europe uh well what's russia doing with ukraine that's pretty it's pretty bad uh ukrainians certainly don't want it um you talk about some other european states talk about the uk to what france germany germany is i got swedish friends german friends i mean

in some areas there it's almost as good as gone i mean there are so many illegals there which by the way is a problem and a fault of the united states wars because the refugees were coming because of united states wars so they can thank the united states for that but uh you know parts of sweden i mean they're literally they do not care about the police at all and the police won't do anything so you're starting to have this is this this is bad multiculturalism i don't know how else you want to say it but i don't have a solution to that if you're not going to follow the laws of the country that you're in then the country that you're in it doesn't mean anything it ceases to be that country and the interesting thing is i i think that america is

it is still exceptional in this case like the the private property rights the first amendment the free speech all that stuff really is amazing in america and it's upheld the institutions are strong states rights is good although states rights is being eroded more and more every day it seems states rights was really good during covid compared to europe states rights in the u.s really worked so the u.s is it's like what ronald reagan said there's there's just no freedom is it's it's losing it's going away everywhere else it literally is the last you guys are the last bastion i say you guys i mean i'm american as well but i don't live there at the moment uh that is a that's going to be a problem if america loses this freedom and so i my point

there again we can pull the thread if you want more but this this is a weird days for this multiculturalism if you're not going to follow the rules it's not going to work and yeah no and that's it's i mean we're seeing it like not only in germany you had the irishan immigrants rioting at the hog last week trying to literally set the hog on fire um ireland has been inundated the people that are getting very pissed off about what's going on obviously we have what's going on here in the united states and i mean i you know me i'm marty jones like i think there has been concerted effort to flood everybody's borders with this to create chaos to usher in a socialist society and i do agree that we are the last bastion of freedom here in the

united states but i think that's why i hold this stance pretty hard like it is actively being eroded at a quickening pace particularly in this administration to the point where it's like all right like we can't get complacent and apathetic and just be like yeah we're the bastion of freedom in this in the world which is true but it can easily slip out of our grasp if we're not if we get complacent and apathetic and we're not vigilant about protecting what makes us great in the first place and i think comparatively today versus a decade ago we're much weaker and have much less freedom um and autonomy that's the weird weird thing about this border crisis and the immigrants it's like everybody like even people in new york chicago and the liberal cities

the sanctuary cities boston they're throwing their hands up just saying like what the fuck are we doing and their politicians are still doubling tripling down like hey we need to kick you out of the school the immigrants need to live here and it's just i think it may be an intentional goal of these strategies is to push people to the edge to create some sort some sort of kinetic reaction um in which are there any the state can come back down with more power are there any like con yeah are there any concrete you know liberal republican i mean liberal in the european sense when i say liberal you know republican sort of led efforts to really work on this and to actually have a concrete fix texas just saying hey

uh we're taking over the border i think that's the first i think the pressure got so immense down here that governor abbott and everybody else is like hey if you're not going to do it we're going to do it we're kicking you out yeah we're taking control i mean literally if you look at the words in the constitution the federal government is not holding up its end of the bargain in terms of border security um as laid out in the constitution so yeah texas does have a right to defend its border if the federal government's not gonna do its job in the in that particular area so i guess that's like the first big reaction from uh in the european liberal sense a reaction to to these policies is again go back to states rights um thank god for texas

standing up and letting the federal government know like we're not doing this anymore god bless texas it's true i mean you got you you guys are the last bastion uh preserve freedom for us and uh we can come back to it but yeah it's something that europe it's actually interesting that the eastern europeans are the ones that are having to fight and protect europe right now as well kind of a similar thing i mean ukrainians literally even though they're not in the european union but the fins i mean there's 600 000 reservists of fins uh and there we've had border crisis on in finland latvia lithuania estonia they've been sending refugees from the middle east over they fly them to minsk which is the capital of belarus

on a plane they fly to moscow on a plane and then they put them in buses and again i'm saying this like i don't have empathy for people that are in that situation i do but they're actually being used as pawns to politically disrupt europe at the moment uh well beyond what europe already did to itself again with the help of america's baby bush's uh freedom loving wars of the early 2000s which caused a metric fuck ton of refugees coming to Europe, which is just so sad. So we already have that that we've already, you know, trying to absorb primarily in Sweden and Germany.

And then right now it's the Russians are trying to agitate as well there. Yeah, I mean, from a strategical standpoint, it makes sense. It's like Western Europe and the U.S., broadly speaking, have just completely eaten themselves. like they have to pretend to like this stuff even though it's destroying their societies and it's going to take a bunch of crow eating to be like all right this is bad you have to back step literally 15 20 years of policy and larping about climate change um the beauty of strength and diversity and all that stuff um anybody said to eat crow and say hey we were actually wrong um

i don't think the people in place are going to do that it's going to take the texases of the world to bring somebody back there's a real challenge too with actual citizenship here in europe i can tell you i just again just to relate what's happening over here is i i know in sweden that the issue has been raised to actually revoke citizenship which is a that's a massive thing to do i mean that's like that's like not done really international law you know i mean like snowden we took his passport but i mean you know it's it's not it's just not done and uh but these people they don't speak swedish they're living off the system and it's just it's it's it's not sweden so they're gonna have they're having issues there everywhere i'm talking about issues let's talk

about solutions i truly believe that bitcoin is a solution to this problem a lot of what we're talking about right now cannot happen if these governments don't have access to a money printer to fund all these activities whether it's printing money giving it to ngos to facilitate all this whether it's printing money to subsidize the welfare state to incentivize people to come and flood these borders we can take their hands off the money printer and give the money back to the free market we may be able to solve these problems slowly but surely i think it's at the core of this problem we're here to talk about good things bitcoin i think we believe is a solution to the money problem it's having some success

so let's jump massive massive success my friend uh let's just do the big picture here with this chart uh logan so this is the this is the big picture monetary settlement assets okay base money we've done a lot of episodes now together marty so i assume most of your listeners automatically they know what basic money is but uh you literally gotta think this is the the top but actually the bottom the core of the financial system however you want to look at it and there is a value to these things uh gold silver everybody knows but if you want to talk other currencies you got to think about the balance sheet of the central bank you got to think what the central bank controls so here was the latest that i did bitcoin is a little bit lower in pricing but it's still in the

same spot uh this is all that there is as far as monetary assets and how value settles so you have gold there that's obviously base money of old days that doesn't you know work anymore there's half of this value is in say gold bars uh bullion coins but half is in jewelry so that goes into like dowries uh india and china they use that a lot so that's number one it's been number one always actually it's about 12 trillion dollars worth of gold in the world if bitcoin hits that it's six hundred and six thousand dollar bitcoin then you got these big four the dollar the euro the yuan and the yen in that order the yen actually shows you how its purchasing power has fallen massively uh with the exchange rate against the dollar recently used to be number

one actually for some years in the old base money ranking now it's number four but all those roughly you're at 250 going up to 300 000 bitcoin and you'll you'll match one of those then this is what we alluded to earlier we've got the old the old mid-major pound sterling we are we're right there 52 51 000 bitcoin pounds sterling is 58 000 bitcoin um we have bitcoin here and silver bitcoin passes long ago actually in february 2021 a lot of people get that wrong uh you have to look at the non-industrial silver so that's what this is then you have the rest of the mid-majors swiss franc rupee aussie dollar ruble it's kind of fake but still fakely it's up there in the hong kong dollar so uh that's the list that's literally the top 10 monies gold and silver and bitcoin

there's nothing else as you if you want to talk money if you want to talk a settlement asset which what bitcoin is it's what utxos are that's what moving money on chain is uh this is the picture and just one more here let's go let's see let's go here um this is the top five currencies and over over the long term same same chart here uh let's take out the rest of the world so here's the total you can see that during covid times we were up to 30 trillion dollars of base money. Now, it's about $27.8 trillion of base money. And the dollar, the euro, the yuan, and the yen, roughly, give or take, make up 20% each. It's a little bit more in the dollar, in the euro's case and that's how it looks so um the top the top five currencies is is 83 percent

of this value and the interesting thing to think about is you know okay so we thought about the dollar the euro the yen these are like big currencies but how much really how much really does that represent in value if you looked at like across the population across the spectrum i have this chart here to show you um and this includes the chinese yuan which is not really a liberal a liberal currency but uh as you see here it's only 29 of the population so people talk about how the dollars look great or whatever um if you look at actual borders and it's true that base money dollars which includes those physical notes hundred dollar bills are outside like many of them majority actually is outside of uh the united states as borders the physical physical

dollars not the digital the reserves but um you know 82 of global basic money is in these top five currencies 29 that's 29 of the global population and if you go out if you take china out and you only look at switzerland you're looking at 65 percent of the base money mixes from those top five currencies and only 11 of the global population is included in these that's a privileged 11 percent so it's clear that this money is not very democratic it's not very egalitarian it's not really working uh what is their solution right is it going to be is it is it fed now is it a cbdc are we going to go on the bricks bucks what is the solution to get the majority of the world capturing the majority of this monetary value which we know is obviously

not freely traded and freely i mean truly freely traded like bitcoin i don't think that there is a solution and so that's why that's why bitcoin so that's the yeah that's the that's kind of the summary of where of where it sits um and go back to the first chart that you had up um you don't have to pull it up but i was just looking at it if we pass 250 000 this cycle bitcoin will enter the top five surpassing the end if we somehow run to 300 000 i think we'll be top three right Yeah. Top three of the fiat, F4 after gold. And this is ongoing. This is a bit of train spotting. This is the 23rd post that I've done, the 23rd quarter following this stuff. And the base money grows as Bitcoin grows. So it's like, it's one of these, it's Wittgenstein's ruler, right? You can

never fully measure this because everything's always changing against each other. We can say that the dollar is kind of the global reserve currency fine you could say that but if you look at things in yen terms or something it's going to look different so you have to always understand that one more point to try to point that out um was it this chart yeah so so when i started doing this and we started doing this marty i think the first one we did was late 2018 even yeah it's 20 trillion 26 years all right and yeah it's down it's down uh a few trillion from the covid top but again the dollar is getting stronger other currencies are getting weaker in this chart you have to understand that you can't i can't put you know all of it together

now what i can do is show you the native inflation which is also a good one which i always do the native inflation uh and when i say inflation i mean the growth of the money stock so here this is looking at all the currencies in this exhibit 50 currencies and this is since their individual start dates which some start in 1970 most start in 1970 but uh you know the rest don't they start a bit sooner but even look at look at brazil and argentina i have this is this is 50 plus years of data for them and this is their average their actual compound annual growth rate of their currencies over the 50 years the massive hyperinflations that they've suffered of their five six currencies respectively uh being reset they're at a hundred percent growth rate basically

is what they've they if if you've been a citizen of those countries for the last 50 years that is the feeling of your savings if you had stayed in that currency it's unbelievable and what's the average growth is it still around 13 yep that's going to stay there pretty much oh i mean unless things it's not going to get better if i add more currencies it could get worse but that's a pretty that's a pretty stamp number number to remember is 12.9 which again due to the effect of compounding that's about only one percent a month because compounding it goes up to closer to 13 uh not 12 just just a little little factoid there so yeah one percent a month compounded is what your currencies are inflating at on average

with all the data that we have over the last 50 years one percent a month that's a huge number it's massive and that's again i think it's important for anybody who's new to the show new to this analysis that we do every quarter it's really important to internalize that the rate of growth is very important and this is monetary base inflation the inflation rate that you're probably more familiar with is the price inflation cpi and that's been a big topic here in the united states particularly the biden administration trying to position their economic policy as um as as a good policy for american binomics is working and they'll point to a lower rate of cpi compared to two years ago as the government winning but you have to

realize that price inflation is still going up just because the rate of inflation is lower doesn't mean the prices aren't going up they're just going up less quickly than they were a couple years ago and you also have to internalize that they're building on a higher base that was set a couple years ago so the biden administration will come out and say that they're solving inflation they have not solved inflation we still have price inflation it's still going up just at a slower rate and building on a higher base so they have not actually reduced prices uh enough to make it beneficial for the end consumer at the end of the day

yep and the uh if you think about you know the way you're taught in i don't know sort of basic finance classes or economics or whatever uh the number that they always say right with this is like two percent two percent is the is the purchasing power uh degradation to expect of course they don't call it that they call it price inflation and that's first of all that still means that your uh purchasing power will have every 30 years uh this is much quicker right the actual rate of growth of the money uh you're doubling less than every six years every six years a little bit less you're doubling at 12.9 percent per year so whatever they tell you it's like watch what they do not what they say whatever they tell you is very different than how this

stuff works out overall and there's no outliers here i mean like singapore singapore data is not as old as the others it starts in 1991 but even from singapore data from 1991 it is by far the best currency 7.2 percent that's still 7.2 percent is exactly the rule of 72 that's going to double every 10 years so the stock of singapore-based money doubles every 10 years um and the next one up is canada at eight point four percent i can't believe it's only nine yeah that had to be last on the list like five years ago it was it was uh well first i mean yeah best uh they really inflated it um from covet they like doubled their monetaries they didn't say more than like a factor of five at one point and then it came back down i'm not sure the factor that it's

high high enough now but yeah it definitely wiped out a lot like a century's worth of better better inflation and canada has a historically very stable free interesting banking system you know they didn't even have a central bank until the 1930s so you know that just shows you that everybody eventually falls off the wagon however you want to say it no and it's i sent this out uh let's tweet out the other night but like the best trick the devil ever played was convincing the world that uh the global economy needs to be micromanaged by academic economists who manipulate interest rates and the monetary base while simultaneously telling you that sound money is bad um it's insane that we put up with this and i was going to say something what was i going

say the um free to choose no free to choose it's oh it's double speak too like it's it's all propaganda play because particularly with i think we've mentioned this on the show but it bears repeating the fed's mandate is dual dual purpose uh make sure there's full employment be the lender of last resort sort of plays into that role and then price stability yep their mandate is price stability and yet they have a 2 inflation target like that's double speak like your mandate's supposed to be keep stable pricing but their policy is actively targeting unstable pricing particularly towards the upside correct and not every central bank has that uh most like europe in particular does not have that dual mandate they say it's just prices but uh especially

because it's a super national organization and they don't have you know as direct theoretically as direct control over employment although they do of course but uh it's total doublespeak man i mean it's just it's just so much nonsense and if you look over the decades uh i've done this i can try to pull it up i'm not sure if the chart will load correctly but if you look at the federal reserve's balance sheet over 110 years all right the i did a video on this pretty recently brass tax the balance sheet itself the assets of the whole balance sheet which includes the monetary base it includes a little bit more until 2008 for the federal reserve remember it's like nine now overall which is basically the monetary base the balance sheet

6.6 percent growth after after almost 12 percent 11 and change and that pulls up that six percent all the way to nine so it's a it's a huge change from what happened in in the global financial crisis and this is theoretically at the hands of someone who said he understood the great depression um but it's he was on 60 minutes saying hey in college i studied the great depression i know what i'm doing here it is remarkable and and they just continue to poo poo bitcoin look i got some i got some great charts for you uh today you're gonna you're gonna enjoy these okay before we get to the charts we need to continue our bashing of central bankers because you said um

like not everybody has a dual mandate but where did this inflation targeting come from it came from new zealand funnily enough right that's right early 90s new zealand was the first one new zealand was the first one and i don't know if you saw this but the other week there's been a lot of piercing of the veils this month and the governor of the new zealand reserve bank had a big piercing of the veil a couple weeks ago i can pull up that tweet i'm sure if you saw this but he was in a committee meeting um talking about stabilizing the economy and here's what he said you know the fiscal challenges etc that are there so um uh very focused on being cost affected we actually fund ourselves and then work out what dividend is

needed to pay so um we kind of it's a great business to be in central banking um money and people believe it and um and um and uh touch wood um and so um so it's a it's a slightly different beast you print money and people believe it he goes on about bitcoin doesn't he he does actually do have that uh that clip as well but he was saying bitcoin is not a medium of exchange a store of value it's only used by criminals it does not pierce into the veil is is so true dude that that is that is an unbelievable i saw that the press conference was unbelievable it's i mean it's just drop jaw dropping these are the people that and credit to the mises institute as well they've always been uh ahead of this you know if you read

mises institute articles and papers from the 80s and the 90s you know they were always ahead of this but it was intentionally meant to be complicated it was intentionally meant to not be clear with the data and everything and you know the federal reserve uh they started putting all their data online at least historically archiving it from 2002 but you can't i mean of course you can find some money supplies that go back further but the actual hardcore data is only from 2002 and then there's a great uh charles barnett i've talked about him on my podcast and done some videos about him really interesting ex-fed economist he runs this he's not so you know he's getting up there and he's not so familiar with bitcoin unfortunately but he has this center

for financial stability and they've done a great job dissecting the federal reserve's balance sheet on a weekly basis back to the founding of the fed but you have to go to these third party people that are interested like me to actually find oops let me get the thumbs up there to to actually find the data and it's the same thing with this guy i mean you had to you have to go to his website look at his spreadsheets drill down to actually see the balance sheet like what was the balance sheet of federal reserve during the great depression they don't tell you on their website it's unbelievable it should be a transparent open forwardly governing body of the nation's monetary system and the mises institute credit to them for decades has been calling them out that

they're purposely purposefully trying to make this complicated i mean it's not just from the naming of the institution itself going back to propaganda federal reserve people are like oh yeah it's the government and it's not it's it's it's just it's incredible man it's absolutely incredible yeah but it's uh i don't know i feel like maybe we touch on this later in the show but i feel again the piercing of the veil there inflation pressures are still being felt by people here in the United States with the immigration crisis adding to that and looking at a president who cannot form a sentence I think confidence in these institutions whether or not they're strong or not is another question but confidence in them is certainly falling pretty quickly and that's

what i want especially bitcoin pumping you get the stamp of approval from the black rocks of the world the dynamics leading up to the halving are unlike they have been in cycles past where 25 26 below the previous all-time high where we're typically 40 to 60 below the previous all-time high i'm heading into the halving historically and i don't know i don't want to be the guy that This time is different, but I think the coalition of collapse and confidence in these institutions, Bitcoin success, and the economic pressures that everybody's feeling on a day-to-day basis create a really interesting environment at which people may be more receptive to the fact that these institutions, particularly the Federal Reserve, does not have control of the money. And there may be a solution out there. 100%. And actually, good tangent here.

i remembered the mart laur quote he said and this is this is this is really related he says in the soviet union in the soviet union we didn't know anything about free market economics and no one had heard of milton friedman and he's like only later only later did i come to realize that nobody in america had heard about free market economics or knew who milton friedman was and that's that's where we're that is where we are right now we've come full circle it's only the eastern europeans and the texans that have any clue about freedom you just you have to follow the signal you have to follow the signal yeah that's what i do have i mean you mentioned it earlier i said where are these debates happening they're happening here and i think independent media online media is

becoming much more influential than mainstream corporate media at this particular point in time i do have hope that the information is spreading there's a lot of doomerism out there i'm not definitely hedge you enjoy optimism you enjoy you enjoy going down those rabbit holes yes it's good to understand the possibilities absolutely it can get dark though those those rabbit holes can get dark quickly i've been down i've been down the darkest of rabbit holes matthew and i know i know you have and that's why i say and i tell you every time and i know you disagree often but there is there still is something special about what the u.s is doing it's it's getting more difficult i mean every every election cycle gets more scary uh

and russian meddling is a real thing i'm gonna hold off on these comments until later but uh it's going to get even worse for us all in november and so yeah it's it's you just have to follow the signal bitcoin's going to help with that bitcoin is going to remove the violence from the state because they're going to have another no other choice yeah we gotta i gotta i gotta show you this this is this is unbelievable dude this is unbelievable Are we going to power line trends? Where are we going? No, we'll do power in a second.

This is Fedwire. All right. Now, I always, I never did this analysis. I have to admit, like, shame on me. I just didn't think about it. I mean, I knew that Fedwire is, if you're going to talk about one system that's kind of analogous to Bitcoin, it is Fedwire. Okay. And I think most people might have heard that.

I always knew that. And it does a ton of volume. All right. the value is absolutely astounding and i'm going to show you that in a second here uh but it's interesting to compare it to bitcoin again this is base money so when we talk fedware we're not talking of course there's two portions of base money remember there's cash and coin physical cash cbdc's will be as well those aren't really started yet anywhere it's very small in the countries that have jamaica bahamas so on and so forth but um then the the third component or the

really the traditionally the second component is this ledger base the digital basis called bank reserves it's basically every bank's account with the central bank and when they transfer money they do do it in a way like bitcoin it's a gross payment settlement one goes one receives it's like bitcoin it's a gross payment settlement everything else in society all your bank accounts like credit cards aren't even real money that's credit like that's not even but your debit cards your your bank of america to chase to schwab whatever those are your ach payments those are paypal venmo that's all net those are net settlement systems have nothing to do with bitcoin it's completely different that's fiduciary media but fedwire is is close and i figured i might as well do

this analysis and actually like find historical data to see where we are so here's bitcoin this is this is courtesy of coin metrics they do their adjusted value transfers originated you know know you take out the obvious change you take out inner inner exchange uh payments because you can tell those as well so you try to get the actual economic value and of course when so this is in bitcoins but then you put it in at any time put it in dollars now this is a trailing 12 month all right so i put in trailing 12 month the peak five and a half trillion august 22 of course we were in 2021 massive prices so it takes it up now we're down but look we're swinging back up on the uptrend of course 1.43 trillion so 1.43 trillion now i'm gonna put fedwire

all right so it's it's massive you saw you saw that bitcoin basically disappears okay and i always knew this i like i knew it was massive i never really bothered with it never thought about it but if you actually do the comparison look at this now let's look at all right let me explain it really quickly for the listeners. I won't go through the whole chart, but Fedwire does quadrillions of dollars a year. Actually, the answer is about one quadrillion. A thousand trillion is a quadrillion. So they do $1,087 trillion a year, Fedwire. It's been up and down, global financial crisis, this and that. It's a little bit different than the monetary base. This is not asset value. This is volume, volume, money flowing through it. So it's huge.

but if you if you compare the two now just do a simple multiple i have this fed wire supremacy let's see how this looks it's gonna be on the right hand axis fed wire supremacy i'm calling it now this this looks really good immediately for bitcoin this is linear scale i'll put it on log scale now wrong side wrong side here we go all right so even though bitcoin and it is much smaller still to this day if this went to one right bitcoin would also do a quadrillion dollars a year it doesn't right but look how quickly it does go down in 15 years of bitcoin so it used to be fedwire used to be 22 billion times larger than bitcoin all right back in 2010 the volume of fedwire was 22 billion times uh bitcoin you go to the first peak fedwire is only 100 000 times

in in 20 2013 actually 30 000. december 2013 was the first you know kind of main peak of bitcoin federal is only 30 000 times bigger than bitcoin payment volume you go to 2017 year end fedwire's 1100 times only 1 000 times bigger than bitcoin and then let's zoom in the last uh sort of trailing 12-month difference in that really mattered in 2022 that was close 190 times okay so it's still huge but the trend here is just like every other trend of bitcoin and when this goes to one you know bitcoin has equaled fedwire so uh this is an extremely bullish chart to me i mean this is obviously trending back down again you see it's rolling over in a good way it's going down again and it's going to continue to go down

as the value of bitcoin goes up fedwire is not you know scaling as fast as bitcoin so here's Here's where, you know, again, I'm not Pollyannish about Bitcoin. You know, I'm more of the free banker, do whatever we can do. But Bitcoin is still based money. I mean, Bitcoin is scaling. Bitcoin is scaling against the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve, 15 years ago, was only doing 30% less, right? It's still a massive number, $750 trillion.

a year now they do a quadrillion it's not like it's not the it's not the massive sea change that bitcoin saw every cycle every happening every upgrade you know that that's that's an incredible that's actually an incredible thing if you think about it that way and yes it's still at this moment 800 760 times smaller than fedwire right fedwire can do a couple trillion a day bitcoin does a trillion a year okay so it is massively smaller in value but it is if you look at this this is like the money curve as far as i can tell i mean this is just this is clearly going down and it's going to go down as bitcoin you know because bitcoin doesn't have to do anything here other than its price goes up and bitcoin is going to be more competitive with fedwire but again this

is why bitcoin is based money and it's not anything else it's not comparable to your checking account or your paypal or a stock or anything else this is what it's comparable to this is why you come back for the quarterly update freaks this is one of like you said the most bullish charts i've ever seen but the fact this is why we have matthew every quarter because he does the hard work to surface this data like this is one of the most high signal charts i've seen in years in bitcoin this comparison is is pretty insane like you can think if you look at the multiples going down like we could easily be within like a 10x ratio by the end of next cycle and you're you're segwaying me here because this one i was sleeping on even more man it gets

better it gets better all right now now on this chart i'm going to show you fedwire versus the bitcoin network as far as transaction volume the number payment volume number of transfers originated okay so fedwire back in the 80s was doing 50 million transactions a year 55 okay now it does almost 200 million number okay this is yearly and always forget daily just annual stuff is easier it's 200 million a year all right a little less 190 it got up to 204 during covid now i'm going to include everybody knows bitcoin does 300 that you can already do the math in your had 300 000 transactions a day but that's without batching i'm going to include batching which are the payments individual utxos and exchange makes a payment they can send it to multiple people

you know including batching this is bitcoin payment volume on a trailing 12 month basis whoa it is already bigger than fedwire and it was already bigger from 2016 man holy shit this is something i completely slept on if you actually it is true that if you look at it just transactions those 300 000 a day it's less it's not actually that much less i don't have that on here but it's you're still that whatever you can do 300 000 a day and take that yeah for anybody who's listening this doesn't understand what we're trying to get it yes you can only have 300 000 transactions a day but as matthew explained some of those transactions can be batched transactions which typically come from exchanges so if you're a bitcoin user you have

buy bitcoin exchange you want to sweep it to cold storage you'll give the exchange an address and you'll say send it to this address and the exchange wanting to be economically efficient isn't going to do an individual transaction per withdrawal per user so they'll aggregate a bunch of users looking to withdraw around the same time into one single transaction with a bunch of inputs that or excuse me a bunch of outputs that go into individual address inputs for all those users transactions that they're batching so at one transaction you can essentially flood bitcoin to thousands of individuals at once and they do it every block i mean this is just miners do this it's a it's a it's a known thing it's new yeah it's best practice indeed so

that 300 000 uh that would be about 110 million transactions a year let's even just take this off so you're still if you just look at bitcoin transactions only then that you're you're about 50 of this right and i don't have this on this chart but if you include if you really look at the economic apples to apples is everybody's getting an output and that's absolutely the case with fedwire this money is going to banks it's not going to you know your checking account when you make an ACH payment. This is bank-to-bank payments, direct, happens every day on Fedwire.

So does Bitcoin do, you know, almost double, almost double that amount at the moment. So that's incredible. And then if we look at the TPS, it's the same number I just put it. It's also kind of interesting. It's Fedwire, Bitcoin, the lineup here. So Fedwire does six transactions per second.

Bitcoin does almost 12 at the moment. if you include the payments if you include the batches so i think that's i mean i told you it's going to get better this is this is unbelievable and i have to admit as a base money specialist i'm i'm a bit uh sad that i didn't look at this earlier or didn't really care about it but this this is the most bullish chart i've seen in forever and that's uh and this is apples to apples folks yes apples to apples there's nothing hidden here well that's what i was going to get at is like a lot of the conversation particularly around transactions per second is apple's oranges when people are not recognizing that bitcoin's

base money really at its core they're trying to compare it to a visa a mastercard and their transactions per second they see 12 transactions per second they're like i can never scale but It's like if Bitcoin at the protocol level is the basically reserve settlement layer of this system that will be built in layers on top, this is actually extremely bullish. It's doing double the amount of transactions that the incumbent system is. And we're still less than half a percent of the global population has adopted this. Yep. And, you know, this does get back to the perennial scaling of beta Bitcoin and Lightning Network and, you know, everything that's coming up now as well with the, how do you call the UTXOs that are under the new? The Ordinals?

Not the Ordinals, but the new, the Covenant UTXOs. CTVs, I forget. CTOs. I'm sorry. I mean, Check Template Verify is the opcode. It's CTVs, yeah. But with the covenants, obviously, that's a new hot topic and everything. And that's fine.

Those are very good things that Bitcoin should do and Bitcoin can do and Bitcoin will do. But again, with just the upgrades it has had and just doing what it's doing, yeah, in dollar amounts, it's much smaller than the Federal Reserve. But in numbers, it's bigger. and that's just an incredible thing uh to me now it says only the fed this is only fed there's euro clear there are some other base money payment networks okay this is just the federal reserve this is just one base money there's there's euro clear and there are other other main base money settlement systems you know between the main central banks

but you know this is this is a pretty interesting benchmark i think to look at yeah uh warning uh you have to fix something on your website i just got like a go back warning yeah thanks um it's my web guide jump the gun on this it should be fixed by tomorrow the next day and it should be it's getting improved improved every day it should be better and the reason i'm checking is like can we get these charts on your website yet yeah that there will be more and more on it but i'm also doing youtube videos so you can find it on my bookopolis channel they've been incredible we've been uh we've been transcribing them into articles putting them on tftc a lot of high signal there appreciate it man it's always enjoyable um you know i'm not trying to

blow smoke up your ass but like this is somebody who's trying to pitch potential investors on bitcoin why you should be investing in infrastructure why you should be investing in bitcoin directly again going back to this apples to apples comparison many are very confused about transactions per second particularly comparing it apples to oranges and having this type of data to be able to go through and be like hey bitcoin at the protocol level is most comparable to fed wire like let's look at what's happened historically in terms of bitcoin catching up to wire in terms of total volume processed it's certainly catching up and then if you look at actual transactions process it's more than double already like that is one of the most bullish

indicators you could have and it's been completely hidden from the market until you surface these charts it's remarkable i mean uh i i can't explain i can't explain how i've i've missed this honestly but i just i was thinking about it it's like we need to we need to see what fedwire is actually doing and there you go it's another thing where they're not really the data is kind of there but they don't want you to think about it i guess and uh bitcoin is already it's already scaling better than fedwire again i'm not trying to be pollyannish i know we can improve bitcoin i know you know there's a role for bitcoin in the global south there's this big role for mining in the global south which is amazing um all that stuff is happening it's great

but at the end of the day it comes back to this as far as the app yeah like you said the apples apples this is base money you just cannot you cannot talk about 50 000 transactions per second peak volume of visa and say that that's what what bitcoin is it's just it never was that i mean it's already i i wrote this last night in the newsletter um saying like it's undeniable and i was basically going off instinct that bitcoin is better money but like this actually makes it undeniable to a certain extent like it is uh it is objectively facilitating more transactions than than fedwire unbelievable and imagine what that looks it looks like at scale again we're not even we're still in the early adopters phase imagine when that becomes fully adopted

and this will be interesting as well to see how quickly this one comes down in the next in the one we've we've peaked at 200 little under 200x smaller than the fed uh you know value-wise it's it's a much easier jump value-wise than it is transaction-wise so i mean it's they're off to the races man off to the races and just a little bit smaller than the pound sterling's base money as well this is this is the gradually than suddenly chart yeah yeah it's like sneaking up it's sneaking up on the incumbent monetary system it's pretty crazy i mean think of all all the times that peter schiff said this is not real money and not a real payment network and it just slowly slowly catches up to fedwire yes i know if you the light green shaded area is

huge but there's no other other than the changing of the value of bitcoin there's nothing stopping this dark green i can put it on log scale so you can see that's kind of maybe doesn't takes away the effect this this bitcoin which is very small at the bottom it's just the value of bitcoin that would change this chart like as you see from this chart it's not a problem to scale to the level of fedwire transactions as far as number so it's just the value of bitcoin that would change this in terms of transactions per second like as the value goes up as adoption goes up like that number is probably going to go parabolic as well it's just best practice batching it's yeah and fees will be more and more people yeah the x factor of course is fees here i understand that

that um that's gonna that's gonna affect it of course but though you know it's undeniable that the growth of this this one in particular the value like fees have never at the end of the day if you're talking again base money global settlement transacting of base money globally it's undeniable that fees mean nothing in as far as this chart goes it will mean something more in feature when they come you know very large uh value transfers but we've gone from being 22 billion times smaller than fedwire to only being 760 800 times smaller at the moment it's uh it's progress that's progress it's progress folks um you want to do the you want to do the power i want to talk again this is why you come back quarter after quarter freaks matthew

it's crunching the numbers like again i got maybe it's uh maybe it's a bit of shock and all caught up in the moment but this is like a cut these two stats are things that we should be leading with in terms of marketing bitcoin against the incumbent system to show success where people like oh it's failed it's all drug money and criminals whatever it's not a store of value it's not a medium of exchange it's like well actually if you look at the facilitation of final settlement transactions it's doing quite well and how much drug money how much drug money was going through hsbc and all these you know regular old commercial banks and they got fined you know not even a quarter of their profits for just billions and billions and billions of drug facilitations through the

legacy banking system it's just it's just childish i mean as joe kernan would put a bitcoin us dollar i'm not sure if you saw that he's i didn't but he's a cincinnati man he's uh he went to my high school actually oh he did yeah something good in the water he's a solid dude i mean what would you expect so he was saying that the gary gensley was trying to be like bitcoin's only like for money laundering oh my god i couldn't watch the whole that whole interview i just saw a couple clips but so what did he do i'm sorry what did he do joe kernett stuck up for bitcoin he was like come on gary we're being serious like bitcoin in terms of the overall money laundering that happens in the world it accounts for this much where the u.s dollar this much and of course

sorkin hopped in it was like well all job or let's get back on the topic here hopped in with his bullshit his pseudo bullshit like he thinks he's such a such a contrary and he doesn't understand anything about it yeah this pseudoscience bullshit uh yeah so this is incredible i mean gensler just gets more embarrassing these people are losing it man they're losing the plot it's uh that's what i'm saying i think and that's like what i'm trying to do here what you're trying to do is to educate people about this but like that's a big question on my mind is like how do we take some more ground and really get to people and be like hey they're fucking everything up they come over here i think again that's why i think the disservice going back to like doomerism

even though i could fall down those rabbit holes and i've certainly written and record a lot of podcasts that have a doomerist tilt to them but i do think painting an optimistic future It's probably a much more effective way of convincing people. I just go back to 2013 when my wife and I were long distance and I was first falling down the Bitcoin rabbit hole. She would come to Chicago from New York. We'd go get brunch. She'd get in late on a Friday night.

We'd wake up, go get brunch. And instead of doing like, hey, how was your work week? It was like, hey, the financial system is about to melt down. We need to buy as much Bitcoin as possible. tears uh took her a while to be convinced of bitcoin i think because of the doomer is tilt that i had on it at that point literally long distance first i remember this one trip i think it was like the first year we started dating maybe our second trip out to chicago we're at this brunch place and um in ravenswood north side of chicago and she's just like crying at brunch and

people think i'm like dumping her but i'm just talking about bitcoin and the impending meltdown the global financial system how prescient you were my friend now you got to get on the lifeboat you got to get on it yeah um power law charts do you think do you think we've hit the trend line yet do you remember what do you think I thought it was like 56 the last time we talked, right? Or maybe 62? 65 at the moment. It goes quick, man.

It goes quick. So here's the old power law. This is the closest trend line that Bitcoin has now of just a typical statistical trend line. 95% R squared. And we are still not at the trend line. so it's a very rare event to actually cross the trend line up or down right you know sometimes it kisses it and of course this trend line would be different back in the day we don't have to talk too much about this but it goes up the price is above this black line it's going to pull the black

line up price goes below the black line it pulls the black line down it's very simple it's a statistical it's not a linear trend it's not a logarithmic it's not an exponential it's a power law it's the fourth kind of trend line it just means it moves in relation to the power uh which is a formula that you can use to find it and um and it's beautifully following this and it fell below it in 2022 during all the puking and the gross you know spf things um and and and another beautiful thing we can do here is we can show uh percentile bands to where we are okay so let's go one sigma down and up zoom in again you don't have to do the whole history i think on this this time so we fell below a one sigma move 2022 we we uh that means

anything inside these blue bands this happens two-thirds of the time okay so two-thirds of the time the price will be inside these blue bands so we're we're in a very normal state right now nothing crazy at all no matter what you read any stupid article you might read on some stupid website about bitcoin we're completely normal at the moment there's nothing worrying about it doesn't matter what you know some moron in wall street writes an article about etfs doesn't matter we're completely in a normal jim bianca no comments no comment no no we should touch on that after this but yeah i actually i for the record i was not thinking of him for i was not i was not thinking

him when i said that definitely there's lots of people to think about there but it was not him uh if if that matters to anybody all right that's that in a completely normal situation right now for bitcoin then you can go two sigma two sigma all right that means anything inside these red bands happens 95 of the time so still pretty normal actually but if it goes outside the red bands that would be not normal okay so interestingly here uh we did not hit the red uh bands in the last run-up in 2021 we did i've said this many times but just for the new listeners we did hit it in 2011 we did hit it in 2013 we kissed it just a little bit in 2017 okay um but we did not hit it in 2021 only hit the one sigma move but we did hit it to the downside which is like a very rare

thing to hit it on the downside i mean of course it has to happen because two and a half percent of the time it's going to hit two and a half percent above two and a half percent below that's how it works so we kissed it here in 2020 uh end of 2022 and now we're you know we're we're coming back to the trend line now interestingly the way this math works is usually when it hits the trend line something big will happen again this this trend line moves it's hard to it's hard to show you everything you kind of got to look at past data um here that when this really puked in 2018 that was actually the trend line was a little bit higher so we've pulled down a little bit so it actually interestingly really started to go down in 2018 right when it did hit the

all-time trend at the time now the all-time trend is slightly lower doesn't always go lower just i've talked about that uh many times as well it can go up it can go down once it goes back above the price goes back with that trend line it's going to pull it back up so this is how it works it's nothing fancy it's not locked it's no locked uh you know certain type of evaluation model this is just simple simple stats and then the beautiful thing with this is we can also project out to the future so let's just zoom in if we go out to the end of the decade a one sigma down is 289 000 bitcoin sorry two sigma down i should start with okay the worst worst case theoretically according to this you know 227 000 bitcoin is two sigma down

one sigma down 289 000 the trend itself 572 000 one sigma up 1.2 million two sigma up 3.7 million one more because we know the four-year cycles right so if we assume the end of 2025 is the next cycle the regression itself 124 000 dollar bit let's move out to december it's usually december right 128 000 bitcoin is december 2025 uh two sigma down would be 50 000 why do i have down on the top we'll get a reorder those two sigma down would be fifty thousand two sigma up uh eight hundred and thirty two thousand dollar bitcoin if it makes a two sigma move in the next cycle top so this is the fun one this chart maybe a stupid question but is the ratio of the amount or the amount of time spent above the regression timeline and below

the regression timeline equal or just depend he's he's coughing that's what i'm trying to i'm not a econometrics statistician wrong pipe there um you asked the question again the amount of time spent below and above the trend line it doesn't necessarily have to be equal because you can have um short spurts of the price going way high way low not a stupid question at all uh this is this is this is not a bell curve okay so when you see some of these things done when you talk about one sigma two sigma it's usually a bell curve it just assumes a bell curve it assumes a normal distribution we don't have to do that with finance especially with finance when it's something that we have all the data for like bitcoins it's beautiful

uh it's just percentiles like i i don't need to assume anything i don't need to assume that this thing in nature typically moves like a bell curve like you're asking equal on the top equal on the bottom so no the answer is no and you can see that in that the uh let's take the let's just take the one off and we just look at the two you can clearly see here that the trend the two sigma down line is closer to the trend line than the two sigma up line so what that is telling you is that most of the time and then if let's even put like one sigma up right so you can see that most of the time the data is hugging around the trend line but the extreme moves are indeed as you would expect to the upside not to the downside not to the downside so so the answer is no it's not

equidistant and it's not a bell curve that's so i am using the language of of standard deviations there one sigma is two-thirds of the time two is 95 three is 99 and then it goes to like weird numbers but you don't need to do that with finance it's just percentiles so we have we have all the data so it's a good question and finance never moves in a bell curve it usually moves in either an exponential curve or a power curve and the percentiles can be whatever they are you just kind of got to measure them yeah it highlights the importance of time in the market when it comes to bitcoin not timing the market because historically the price moves to the upside happen pretty rapidly and aggressively so it's just making sure that you're in the market

um yeah i was trying to determine like if you know the price is going to be below the trend line for 60 of the time like anytime it's below it's probably a good time to buy not giving financial advice here but i'm sure people are looking at this chart like should i use this as an indicator of when to back up the truck yes sir always uh you know never financial advice but the i don't know off the top of my head but 60 40 is probably right i mean um you're not far probably 60 60 being below 40 above uh and then it would get even more crazy the higher those those bands you go it's like pretty rare you can see it's it's pretty rare that it hits the red on the upside but it's not that it's rare but it's it's it's hovering around the red to the downside more

yeah so is this time different etfs are here they're gobbling up thousands of bitcoin a day at the current moment at the current price has there been an inflection point that could render historical data not render an obsolete but yeah really make it so like historical performance is not indicative of future results i don't as far as this chart goes in this data i would say no because first of all in 2017, you had CME futures starting and people could short the hell out of Bitcoin. And they did, although the open interest wasn't that big compared to what it is now. So you had that in 2017. Again, all the Wall Street, as you go down, all the Wall Street people, they think they're

vindicated. They think they know what they're talking about. They're so happy that it's something they don't understand as poorly. And then look, it just turns around again. And so, yeah, if anything, obviously it's going to go to the upside, but you know me, like I'm not, I'm not a, I'm not so bullish on like traditional Wall Street stuff. So I would not, I think it gives it legitimacy. It's good. It's good having the ETFs and everything, but I am not, you know, use multi-sig. If you're going to hold coins, hold them in multiple jurisdictions, be careful, be safe. Get your funds out of banks. it's fine to use banks for very very small amounts that's how you should look at bitcoin um that's that's how i feel about it it's maybe i don't know if i'm dodging your question but no i don't i don't think it's different if anything it's the wall street effect might push it to the upside more but um we had shorting from already 2017 i'm envisioning just a day at some point in the future where we open up this chart and so far above the top red line we're popping

champagne yeah let's let's copy that clip man copy that clip that would be interesting that would be interesting if that ever does happen you gotta warn me the day before we record because them a ring and champagne i love it it is it's number go up technology uh all you know sound money wrapped up in a get rich quick scheme any sort of you know tagline you want to apply to it it's fine but it is free market based money anybody can send it anywhere you know you can't send microsoft stock to someone in turkey but you can send bitcoin it's just it's incredible i'm not again i'm not pollyannish about it uh but i i think that people need to really start looking at it from that way again you're going to read 50 000 articles tomorrow about

why bitcoin's not as good as visa or it's you know its price is not going to be as good as apple or whatever oh another one by the way this article this video should be out already now on youtube but um there's nothing else left marty look at this uh you know the old company market cap right it's a good site uh it's a global i think on all categories all assets well this is all assets including public companies precious metals cryptocurrencies etfs now this doesn't have my base money that i'm gonna make a chart with this a table with it but uh there's nothing else first of all we have saudi aramco that's the only like non-major u.s exchange company you have silver i this is actually incorrect this is total silver ever mind it

it you really need to discount industrial silver here it's constantly churning through you know with electronics uh you know with chips and all this uh electronic usage industrial usage of silver it's not it's not a store of value silver uh some of it i should say some of it is but it's roughly 50 so that you get back if you you can see here if you take out the 50 you're roughly back to my number 600 and some billion bitcoin's already bigger than silver so literally we have meta stupid meta nvidia amazon alphabet saudi aramco apple microsoft and then gold gold is again you take take off about 15 of that get back to my 12 trillion is a better number than the 13 is that you got to take out industrial gold as well so um that's it man you add these uh

seven more stocks and what did i have five on my base money table and gold and gold so that's seven plus five that's 13 that's 13 assets ahead of bitcoin like what are you doing like wall street people how can you how can you ignore this anymore there's 13 assets it doesn't matter you can compare but get bitcoin to golf courses doesn't matter at the end of the day but if you want to go liquid assets all right and these are not comparable by the way this is way different the stock is way different than money gold and silver is fiat stuff is but if you want if you even want to we're at there's there are 13 assets that are larger than bitcoin and one of them is founded by mark zuckerberg which is just you know

embarrassing so it's it we're we are we are we are marching on here and uh it just does not matter and when you look at this list like what is like wall street what are you doing like what is when you see the upside multiple for everything in front of bitcoin compared to bitcoin precisely precisely and bitcoin's going to surpass all these eventually and just never move from the number one spot precisely and saudi aramco i mean you know they're they're already trying to get into green energy and stuff and hold their position uh they should be mining i don't I know you got too many tangents, but this is an interesting one, too, I think.

No, this is fascinating. It is, like, it does. Like, on one hand, you want to shake Wall Street. Like, what are you doing? On the other hand, it's like, all right, yeah, keep your head in the sand. We stack as many sats as possible. Yes. Agreed.

Agreed, man. I think that's it for the charts for today. Good charts. Incredible. I mean, these two charts are. this one is this one is wild this one is wild we're winning literally like alcom over 11 over 11 transactions per second if you include the batch payments

i thought it was roger vert told me it was like three to four even if it was the three and a half look it is three and a half and even if it was you're still still half if you talk about the gross so we don't have to rehash that that's just yeah no it does those two charts highlight the amount of nuance needed when explaining bitcoin i think that's like the biggest uphill battle that we have not only do it to explain bitcoin to people but we have to explain how the incumbent system works nobody fucking knows how that works either yeah it's like oh shit for my i'm for my hundredth uh video which is coming out after this one was just posted today it was by i i compare bitcoin to paypal a couple stories a couple

interesting video clips of nick zabo in there uh do check it out please it's um i mean how many times when you talk about bitcoin you know do you get the perennial like it's like paypal then yeah this that's that's the number one confusion point is people immediately think there's a company a ceo it's like must be like paypal bitcoin must be like paypal no and nobody understands how the fed works or i've been following it for 15 years now and i still when you get into like reverse repo facilities repo facilities new facilities it's like it's so much to keep up with like you said intentionally opaque and confusing to make it so people don't find out it's all scam

yeah they should just chart it out they should show you how much of the national debt they own they should show you i think i can pull this one up oh that's actually a good point i did want to bring it up i was thinking about earlier so i did a retrospective um around the 15th anniversary of the genesis block january 3rd 2024 instead of doing like 15 year retrospective on bitcoin i did a 15 year retrospective on the changing of the monetary base and the national debt particularly and i think you're the best person to ask this question because i could have been way off base it just intuitively made sense to me but if you go back to january 29 2009 um the ratio of national debt

to the monetary base was 1.26 the monetary base was around like 8 trillion national debt was i think around 10 trillion or something like that 12 10 to 12 trillion fast forward to january 2024 Before that ratio has expanded from 1.26 to 1.68, so $34 trillion in debt, $21 trillion of base money in the monetary base. And to me, intuitively, that expansion of that ratio from 1.26 to 1.68 signals that it's got to revert to the mean somewhere between those two numbers, which would basically conclude that you need to expand the monetary base pretty significantly. i have it here you'll see it yeah all right so again this is this is not the monetary i'm gonna put this on log scale on the left okay so it's uh not log right this is the national debt going back to the beginning of the country all right uh so here you got you know not even 100

million this is this is point this is it's it's a scale isn't billions okay you don't get to billions until after i think the civil war yeah right around the civil war so you're in like hundreds of millions before then this is jackson he actually extinguished the debt and the second bank of the united states you got civil war you see in wars big jumps world war one okay and then fed comes uh let's zoom in fed uh you see world war one big jump in national debt world war two let's take this off over one big jump in national debt world war ii big jump we're up to 250 billion by world war ii then just slowly up you know vietnam war is a this is like a constant drag increase in the debt and then i think i've talked about this on your show i can never remember but

this little just this little sort of deceleration here clinton was clinton but he talks like this was like god's gift to the planet what the balance budget for he bound all it means is he did not spend more than he took it in taxes for a couple years it wasn't his eight years it was a couple years so that little bit of a a gentle uh deceleration and actually on that topic uh somebody brought the fact that during that time they i think they launched the roth iras and so i think a lot of reason for that was people transitioning their um their iras to roth iras and on the roth you take the tax it up front i believe or vice versa whatever happened like something with the iras changed and a bunch of people transitioned into an ira that you took

the tax it up front so that like led to a crazy influx of tax receipts interesting yeah i never read that but i i do recall people talking about ross a lot because i was just starting to invest in stocks at the start of the 2000s so it's just before that i remember roth was like the hot topic then interesting um yeah so anyway we could do the we can do the the ratio which you were talking about it's not this is actually the feds this is now the asset side it's monetary base is the liability side that's what the you know just like when you put money into a bank they have a liability to you same thing with central bank they have a liability to their to their banking clients their main banks but on the asset side they take that money they just printed and they buy assets they

buy government bonds so now let's look at we have the national debt and in the dark green it's the federal reserves it's very precise number here i'm not showing you the total fed balance sheet although this is basically the total fed balance sheet but it's actually the the government treasuries the u.s treasuries federal reserve holds as an asset okay so i'll put that now on the right and here you see it's very interesting the federal reserve back when it was founded did not hold any government bonds at all a couple percent it was actually more of a banker's bank it's very interesting i'm not saying it's a good thing but very interesting that during before in the 20s and stuff they did not hold government paper at all like a few percent they mostly just

lent to banks they held commercial paper banks then it went up during uh the great depression fell back down but still we're under 10 uh you know holdings of uh of the national debt and then we finally get to remember this is a percentage of the national debt it's how much of the national that the federal reserve owns okay so in the end of vietnam they peaked here and you can also see it's very interesting these see how rigid like jumpy it is see how it goes up and down a lot it doesn't do that here notice but uh so it gets up to almost 20 percent at the end of the vietnam war 1975 then falls uh clinton whatever and then let's just zoom into the the big the big numbers right global finance crisis it falls here because they bail out all the

companies again so they have to they had to actually sell their their government bonds into the market for a time of course like they had all these swap agreements so like they didn't crash the market of they try to not crash the market of treasuries either but here the reason this falls is they were bailing out companies again banks so that's why this falls but then of course they did the qe1 2 and 3 so it rose again so now at this point at the end of qe3 they own 23 of the united states debt okay so you need to when you see a number the federal reserve runs 23 23 and a half percent you need to think that's only at most 77 percent is owned by the free market so 23 is owned by you know a non-free market entity a monopolistic

entity 77 is owned by the free market then they tried to normalize code happens they can't normalize it tops at almost 30 percent of uh government bonds and now they're trying to pull it back down again and i of course you and i both know that this is going to go back up at some point soon so uh at the moment it's back down about 20 this is the number this is how much they own not only that but that's the other thing yellen announced last year that the treasury is going to open up the buyback window to for treasuries this year yeah which is essentially yelling signaling like i think there's gonna be depressed demand because interest rates are high and who knows whether or not if we do these auctions the market will react in the way we

want so we should open up the buyback how does that work so like the treasury issues treasuries and holds it on their balance sheet uh it's a good question the basically they just yeah they want to protect against failed auctions so if at the moment right now even at the moment that the market only buys 80 of all u.s government debt okay so the fed is is there it's a big it's the biggest player in the market um you know there are other big banks right the chinese are there although they don't have as much as they used to i should get that chart the japanese are there the europeans are there those are huge players as well in the market um but then there's just regular investors u.s pensioners so the market is still big but the federal reserve is the

enormous elephant so they have 20 of it uh i don't i don't know the exact technicality of how they would protect the failure of that auction but basically yeah it's an it's it's uh it's the first time it's opened up since 2001 one yeah i don't know i don't think it actually is a fed buyback is it is it called a fed but i think it might be the treasury no it's the treasury the treasury does it right the treasury itself which it also the treasury has its own balance sheet which is the national debt but that's a horrible that's a worse balance sheet than the federal reserve uh so i don't i don't know the technicalities of that but just to again give a bird's eye view for people so this 34

trillion you in a normal company okay let's take off the central bank it's 34 trillion dollars of debt a normal company if you had 34 trillion dollars of debt you would need to by law or you would be bankrupt you would need to have at least 34 trillion dollars of assets so production equipment a plant uh property a brand it doesn't matter you need to have 34 trillion dollars of assets to operate if you don't you'd be bankrupt you couldn't go you couldn't survive long enough and your stockholders would get pissed off and your creditors would piss off and you just couldn't, you couldn't do it. The treasury doesn't work that way. Okay. And the treasury is, is because of the federal reserve, because of the dollar, this $34 trillion in

liabilities is matched by, I haven't looked at the numbers in a long time, Marty, but maybe $5 trillion in assets. And they, and they show it, they, there's a negative equity gap of like 20 plus 25 it might be 25 it might be 30 they have all that the treasury has on their balance sheet is is land some federal land like in the in the dakotas or something and the future value of taxing its citizens but even those numbers never make enough sense so they don't put it on so it's it's literally just a blanket negative equity situation always with the government there is no asset you can say that the federal reserve has the power to tax the citizens they do not put that on the books so that's why it looks more and more extreme every time so if

this buyback program is basically ability to i don't know use their own future tax revenue to buy more bonds and put those bonds back on the the asset of the treasury's books i guess that's how it worked but i i haven't looked in i mean that that would be the only option basically is they're they're borrowing again future tax money seems like a buy it's on bonds it's all a ponzi scheme i mean these are the only institutions that don't follow the rules that we follow so you got to be prepared for that when that inevitably there's never going to be a hard a hard default would be okay we have way too many liabilities none of assets we're defaulting they don't have to do that they soft default all the time they issue more and more

But yeah, I will have to look at the mechanics of that buyback. That's an interesting question. You said it was 2001? 2001, I believe, is the last time it was open, which would make sense intuitively. Post Fed. .com bubble, post 9-11. I think it might have been post 9-11.

The Fed didn't do anything crazy either, so I don't think it's on the Fed's balance sheet. It's a literal smoke and mirrors with the Treasury itself. with the own debt that they issue itself. So I'll have to check that out. But not a good sign. You're right. Not a good sign.

And if anybody tells you that, oh, you're just being dramatic about the national debt. You're not looking at the asset side of the balance sheet. Yes, I am. Look at the, there are no assets. There are no assets. You can go on the Treasury's website right now and you will see like some land and that's it.

there is no other that's not matched that unlike a normal company there are no assets there on the treasury's balance sheet it's only the future value that it can tax its its citizens yeah then they'll be like the military what about the military it's backed by the military force the roads that's always it is crazy that it's gotten this back the roads oh ah thank god you brought up the roads i had a perfect example of like who will build the roads last saturday son oldest son he's about to start playing t-ball it's not a lot of income tax there's no income tax down here in texas um very little taxes get an email from the uh the head of the league it's a all the way up from

t-ball to like little league before high school they're like hey we need to clean up the fields get them ready for the season you know what a bunch of us dad showed up on a saturday afternoon we cleaned up the fields we didn't need the city to do it yeah who's gonna build the roads who's gonna clean the fields you can you can indeed it's beautiful i was sitting there i was like cutting vines on the fence uh in the outfield i was like who when they say who's gonna build the roads it's like i'm here i'm cutting the lines you can have private tolls uh it's pretty clear that you can do just about anything in a private capacity soviet union that's another good example soviet union here more people need to understand it i mean soviet union really did

give us a run for our money in the space race but then you need to ask 50 years later for what good soviets put the first man in space first woman in space for satellite in space first dog in space first monkey in space first uh first picture of the dark side of the moon did all these things okay great good for them you know 30 years later the soviet union was no more because they're an economic basket case and like i told you all white by the way it's no no wokeism there no problem all white and we were horribly economically behind the west horribly because it's socialism is the problem so it's just another i don't know it's a tangent on your road thing it's like you can move any amount of resources you want as a government just say the word give us our patriotic

call and make it happen you could do it you got to ask the question later how your grandchildren are going to be doing and the soviet union's grandchildren are actually better because the soviet union collapsed but if they weren't if the soviet union did not collapse it would continue that chain as i told you which had never happened before like in the history of mankind is uh a pretty well-to-do eastern european population the first generation in the soviet union was poorer than their parents you fools they were poorer than their parents it's happening here it's happening you guys are the last bastion you're the last bastion marty it's happening here right now stay positive stay positive doom spending i know we're not getting on

doomers i'm like literally yeah i'm all this gen z years being like i can't save money i'm just gonna spend it all we gotta we gotta stay positive i know but staying positive going back to cleaning out the baseball fields similar event last year we had an ice storm here in austin a bunch of trees fell down my son's school called up said hey we have a bunch of trees we need you guys to come help 100 people showed up helped pick up all the branches cut down some half fallen trees and got our kids school ready so that they could go back to class just did the last week for the baseball field uh the point being like i think particularly people with children like i did both those things it's like yeah i want my son to be able to go to school in a good environment and

play baseball in a good environment so like you're incentivized to go do that there's natural incentives you don't need the state to solve all these problems i think family is core core to creating an environment where things will be built and get done because you want to do it for your kids and selfishly i do want to say again for my region here because i know there's a lot of bitcoiners that their noses are going to be really tweaked or they're going to be uh triggered when i say this but if you see someone like tucker carlson going and interviewing vladimir putin he can interview whoever he wants it's fine but that is not the christian value center of the world that you think it is if he goes to a french

supermarket which he calls a russian supermarket french run russians could never run anything outside of moscow and you need to watch uh a channel called inside russia a guy named constantine he's a great guy uh speaks english he's in exile in tashkent uh they just killed nivolny in prison uh bad really bad news for tucker uh because he's trying to do his little propaganda play um they are not your friend they are not your friend this pussy riot already exposed this 10 years ago with the catholic church being weaponized this is you could from 2014 actually from 2012 after in i don't know exactly the year but between 2012 and 2014 when putin got in after medvedev uh left his little puppet uh president for four years he there were major

protests when putin was going to come back biggest ones in russia ever was the biggest chance they had it for freedom. Navalny was there. Garry Kasparov was there. A guy named Boris Nemtsov was there, who was killed later in 2015, right at the foot of the Kremlin. The cameras were turned off, of course. They had a real shot in

2012 time, 2011-2012. Putin got in again. Everybody was pissed about it, but he still did. They've faked the election, of course, which has always been fake, even since 2000. All the international bodies will say that, that it was that it was rigged in some way shape or form since 2000 uh putin got in and from 2013 let's say

if you had two people with a placard with a you know protesting assembling remember the romans did not have the right to assemble this why america was special the romans did not have the right to assemble so in russia from 2012 2013 if you were two people that is more than one that was an illegal protest okay so already from 2012 2013 you fools if you're listening to uh to to tucker carlson ask vladimir putin questions in his palace that he's been in for 24 years he's invading a country illegally that is not liberal democracy it's not any democracy that's a dictatorship it's a gang it's a mafia they're killing ukrainians uh we're super worried here in the baltics we've seen this before we've seen this show before um you just have to be careful

you have to be careful don't i know you're a disillusioned with the u.s government but this this guy is it's not and all these guys in russia they're not your friend they're not your your christian brothers they're absolute thieves and thugs and their money supplies garbage compared to the u.s so there's just take note of that please yeah i don't think they're our friends at all i'm gonna go back to this like i think the u.s intelligence apparatus is fucking around i think they're both fucking around well they can talk they're not coming to his defense but i do think i don't know like just any information that you can get from the other side whether it's propaganda or just seeing how

they're posturing i think it's been like the whole like just putting an iron curtain for lack of a better term between like silicon so there's a great channel by the way called silicon curtain it's a silicon curtain now yeah i can't think of i don't know i think i don't know i think i'm really like conversations need to be had um just to like i agree he can interview whoever he wants but if it's it's not i don't think it's clear to the average american who's watching that um that what you saw there was i mean look you can have everybody knows that biden is not like mentally there and and if you you know you you have plenty of media outlets to to to talk about that and to to really get there what you saw in russia is is first of

all uh as far as i know not going to be aired actually um locally locally uh actually i shouldn't say that it might be he approved it whatever but what you saw is pure propaganda vladimir putin since 2000 has taken over this is not something like a slow role of where he's just slowly became disillusioned and became a dictator since 2000 he took over the main public channels look up uh the oligarchs boris berezovsky uh gusinsky and a georgian his name is patark shvili i forget his name but um these guys were the three biggest media barons in russian in the night in russia in the 90s and they in 2000 and 2001 had their channels taken from them by putin in 2003 the largest oil field in russia yukos was taken by a guy named michael

khodakovsky he was in jail for 10 years they freed him before the sochi olympics now he swings between switzerland and london as far as i know um he has a great english twitter channel michael khodakovsky all of these guys have gotten fucked and look it just can't explain to you enough i mean living on the border there understanding these things this is not a surprise for any of us in the baltics the the path that they are on so so when you when you're getting this i know it seems like you're getting something that's pushing back against the big bad u.s pushing back against uh the u.s security apparatus first of all the russian security apparatus is no worse no better it's way worse i mean they have these guys use poison plutonium

they used plutonium 210 on british soil in 2006 what what they are telling you if it's not clear enough and it should be clear enough to everybody now is they're telling you in the west we don't give a fuck about you we don't give a fuck about your rules about your laws we have our own agendas with our own traitors no one is going to be a traitor to the glorious russian state as shitty as we are with no values no morals no free market economy ever in the history of our mankind when they murder someone with plutonium plutonium laced tea in 2006 or novichok as late as 2018 they did that to a former spy and his daughter on accident 2018 the script balls uh they are telling you we do not give a fuck about you about your laws we don't fucking care

we fucking despise you and we we do not care now this gives some dumb libertarians a huge fucking boner because they're like holy shit this is a this is a big strong man who is standing up against the big bad government that's really not the way to look at it because we us in eastern europe who have been in the crosshairs of this for 50 years now plus 30 and it's coming back and we're really worried that they're going to try again this is not what liberty is about this not what the western world is about and ukraine did not want this ukraine did not want this and they're paying the price they really are paying the price so look i know it sounds like i'm on soapbox or lecturing or whatever i agree with you uh everybody tucker can interview whoever he wants

uh this guy is is is is really the worst of the worst he's probably the richest person in the world uh i mean you could say she is because she can kind of do whatever he wants but this putin has control of the second most resources in the world he can do whatever he wants it's just it's all out there man the paradise papers remember that back in the day they came out or maybe it was panama papers i can't remember by now his his cellist buddy from grade school putin's cellist buddy modest cellist lives in a modest apartment plays in the saint petersburg symphony he's richer than jay-z this is putin's great his name is roald dugan is uh is his i mean it's just all out there it's all out there uh you just have to look for it

read books on putin read books on russia uh they are their their apartment box are freezing freezing right now in russia they have no uh income from energy which in some ways good but they don't have eggs they can't like eggs are one of the i always remember from a great movie again for the young turks watching this uh thread is um commanding heights it's a book and it's a it's a pbs series actually it's pretty good it's not fully free market stuff it's more like kind of mainstream but the main signal and it just showed that an economy is working is eggs will have good pricing and you will have eggs in the market because it makes it to the farm quickly and it's just there's a lot of reasons for it they don't have eggs right now in russia uh

these motherfuckers cannot run a normal market and tucker goes to a french run like market french trainer yeah it's a french it's alshan it's a french market it's not a russian market it's not enough russian markets in france i mean this is just it's so bullshit and it's it's the center of moscow like where everybody is going to be treated well in the very center of moscow he goes to this subway dude i was in saint petersburg in like 2008 with my choir and we sang in saint petersburg that's all great uh that's not i just said that that's not the point of the story we went down to the subway um a girl tried to take a picture of the subway there because it was known that the subways they kind of tile them up nicely and everything even in the communist

times she was immediately ticketed by a cop and had to pay a fine on the spot in cash uh and shitty russian rubles this was in 2008 nine it's a terrorist nazi a security state always from from long ago from the beginning he took control of the media in 2000 you have to listen to my words what you are watching what the russian people watch is not the free media it's just not the free media i know msnbc is just as bad as fox which is just as bad as cnn i know that i know that i'm not you cannot you have to do better than the than the like what about ism baby bush is was a horrible president i know that he caused we talked about this earlier he caused a lot of heartache with his middle eastern wars of conquest but i think i think morgana is all

fucked they're all fucked yeah they're all very fucked it's fucked just be careful uh free market money is good what's gonna happen when putin dies because there has been like rumors that he's been very sick there was cancer rumors going around yeah a couple years ago i believe there's there's still a guy going on that that was a doppelganger really i can't tell anywhere i don't follow it enough i mean he definitely has doppelgangers uh and for sure if he died at this moment people think that it would be no better there i mean they're all a group they're all a mafia group from saint petersburg in the 90s um this group they take care of each other there's no this is another thing like do you know who the prime minister of russia is marty you ever thought

about that putin's the president you have another prime minister he is a 20-year veteran of their version of the irs the tax service oh that's not who you want being prime minister there's nothing there there's nothing for you in russia they're they're not it's just bullshit it's a i feel very bad for the russian people but you know we we were under the soviet union we don't have any of that shit we're actually per capita gdp some of the best in the european union right now so it can be done and yeah i get on these tangents with this i had another point there but i can't i can't remember it well i don't know if we have time for another i gotta run here in a little bit but no i always for the last two years that we've been doing this

and very much appreciate your perspective and the knowledge of the history particularly that you bring to all this thank you i know i know i know a lot of listeners like they're they kind have this visceral reaction if someone says what i say or they think that i like like watching msnbc or something obviously that's not the case you should know that by now watching this you just got to be a little bit do a little bit better i mean that's yeah it's like don't accept the frame of russia good america bad or america good russia bad there's another way to frame it which is like they're all fucked and they all have the individual goals and objectives that you're trying to achieve that likely don't have anybody's best interest in mind and particularly the common

man the citizens yeah of both countries and they're playing on another fucking layer of the of the playing field some geopolitical dick measuring contest and we're all just cat and fodder texas is good man stay strong there i've been lifting trying to get strong if i have to run to the border to defend it because because the feds get crazy here i may have to you know it's an interesting question to ponder if you might have to do it i mean we have these questions as well people are stressed here man people are stressed about possible invasion they've done it to ukraine they said they weren't going to do it for years coming up on two years the invasion uh just read any tweet by any dumb moron in the west or the east who was a russif russophile

russifo russophile excuse me uh loving russia thinking that whatever putin said was gold uh they denied that they were in in invading ukraine until of course they did it and there's no reason to think that that would change now about any other part of their revanchist bullshit you know wars of conquest that they're trying to do in their shitty spheres of influence that no one wants to be a part of yeah hopefully bitcoin fixes this that's the thing i think to to tie the bow on that if if everybody realizes like the u.s government doesn't have to realize right now with its net massive negative assets if you realize

that you just cannot in the market keep printing your paper tickets to cover over your expenses then things get more expensive for you you start making better decisions you start really thinking about defense and not offense and the world gets better yeah well we'll be back next quarter to continue this conversation thank you for the most bullish charts we've seen on the show in in years potentially ever i can't believe i'm just hiding there beneath the surface um um likewise i feel the same frankly after after looking at it and uh glad we could do it it's never a chore and yeah thanks again i i do just want to say it again sorry if it sounds like i'm on a soapbox but it's pretty real for us over here what we're going through just as real as

it is for you guys down in texas so uh you know my opinion won't change in the next quarter i can tell you that yeah yeah we'll be back for the q1 2024 quarterly update we've got uh 38 days 39 days left in the quarter and then the way it goes i think we may be in the top five i think we may be indeed uh we got to get that monthly close to count against the pound right the monthly close um above above uh 58k i think we're gonna do that but yeah it's it takes time like some central banks even now if you look at my summary not all central banks even post their december numbers by now so some of them you see are still as of november but it usually takes a month for the big ones and then a couple days for me to sort it all so that's why we're already

into mid-feb mid to late feb and we're talking about q4 just my little disclaimer again so we'll be back in uh april late april early may mid-may i love it man i love you madame is anxious the voice of god the voice of reason the man with the data that's fun dude it's always a pleasure never a chore the baltic basher peace and love freaks Thank you.