TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #485: Will Bitcoin Hit $1,000,000 This Cycle? with Tuur Demeester

Episode Date: March 4, 2024

Marty sits down with Tuur Demeester the bull run, the mindsets that perpetuate controlling regimes, AI, and more. Tuur on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester Adamant Research: https://adamantresearch.com/ 0:00 - Intro 5:07 - Tuur is bullish 12:08 - Public is catching on to money printing 17:01 - Effect of newbie influx 22:57 - Regulatory and centralization risk 29:04 - Totalitarian regimes 41:06 - Belgium and helpless mindset 51:32 - AI and information accessibility 1:00:55 - Gradually, Then Suddenly 1:01:34 - How high are we going? 1:18:14 - Building, form and function 1:32:13 - Wrapping up Shoutout to our sponsors: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠River⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Unchained⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Zaprite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Bitcoin Talent Co⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TFTC Merch is Available: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Shop Now⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the TFTC Movement: Main ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YT Channel⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Clips ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YT Channel⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Website⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Marty Bent: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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So go check it out. Go to bitcointalent.co. Tell them that TFTC sent you and enjoy this very bullish rip with our good friend, Ter Demeester. You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free. When you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts. So it's all acting like safe haven. I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins.

In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. Tur, it's good to have you back, sir. Marty, good to be here. It's wild lately. It has been. That's why I wanted to get you back on. I haven't prepped you for this at all. Yeah, yeah.

But I have something to say. I've known, I've been following you on Twitter for what feels like the better part of a decade now. We met in person in 2018. I've been following your analysis and your perspective on Bitcoin for some time now. And I don't think at any point in the time that I've been following you, I've ever seen you this bullish. You've gone full. You're fully bulled up right now. What is going on in your mind?

Yeah, I mean, honestly, yeah. I think that looking back, because I think there was something that felt a bit off about the 2021 atmosphere rally. like it was and of course that's just one cycle ago maybe you know uh i don't know back in 2017 that was another cycle but definitely the 2021 something fell off and like everyone was like high right i mean like everything was going crazy in terms of prices real estate just equities just everything shit coins and i think part of why i'm so bullish is that it's like the world is like

there's some sanity in the world again like there's some focus like bitcoin is going crazy not really i mean it's just the beginning but but um i don't know it's it's the way it should be right i mean the the finally investors after 14 15 years are starting to understand that this thing is important uh and and uh i don't know i think additionally i think malay getting elected was like it really it killed something in me that was like oh yeah i guess you know as a libertarian i'm always gonna fight like the losing battle or it's just you know i'll be the guy who's like in the corner like excuse me like we could just maybe you know not have welfarism and and subsidizing everything like crazy uh just to see that happen it really gives

me hope because you know it's not that i don't want for people to get nice things it's just that i want societies that are sustainable economies that are sustainable that can actually grow and uh so yeah i feel a lot of hope yeah i do too and it does feel like this time i i almost said it this time is different in a way because we have the etfs are here which i'd I'd love to get your thoughts on one of your broader thoughts on the ETFs I think enough time has passed in Bitcoin's history and the history of its competitors particularly altcoins that it's becoming clear that there's a clear demarcation between Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto world and on top of that you have all these tailwinds that are

blowing on Bitcoin's back whether it be record low confidence in institutions across the board whether it's media politics education medicine whatever it may be people are really not happy with the state of the incumbent power structure so they're more receptive to a disruptive technology like bitcoin that could hand power back to the individual and society at large and then on top of that you have this very interesting dynamic at play from a monetary policy perspective where the Fed has rates above 5%. And a narrative for a long time was Bitcoin essentially moves with Fed policy. If they're lowering rates of printing money, of course, Bitcoin is going to go up. But the last six

months have proven that Bitcoin is beginning to dislocate from that broader narrative. So, yeah, I want to throw this out there as a theory slash prediction, and it might already be already happening. We used to be assuming, because Bitcoin was so small, that Bitcoin responds to things that happen in the world. And so that, you know, one of the things that, you know, we've talked about and many people talk about is that Bitcoin is actually correlated, the cycle is actually correlated to the money supply, right? I mean, Bitcoiners are smart. They look at the actual monetary inflation and then they respond to that by buying. But I think what's going to start happening is that the tail is going to start wagging the dog, meaning the world markets are going to start looking at Bitcoin as an advance indicator that something big is starting to happen. Because Bitcoin is now a trillion dollars, it's going to go to ten hundred trillion dollars.

And so when the Bitcoin price rises up because of the laws of physics, communicating vessels, it means somewhere else a bubble is deflating. Something is going on elsewhere. And so to look at the Bitcoin price can be like an early indicator that something big is happening. And so it just occurred to me a few days ago, I really think people are going to start looking at Bitcoin as an early indicator. And specifically what this could mean now is money leaving the banking system, just going to be parked in Bitcoin where it cannot be confiscated because banks really are totally underfunded. They have extremely low reserve rates and they don't offer Bitcoin directly. So it's not like, oh, you can store your Bitcoin with us and then we can fractionally reserve it and, you know, do all kinds of things with it and still keep our business going. It's like, no, once you buy Bitcoin, even an ETF, like it's actually leaving the bank.

And so, yeah, I mean, that's something something potentially really big that's happening. And to put that thesis to the test of this particular price movement, like what do you have any inclinations of what's currently deflating and flowing into Bitcoin specifically? I mean, Peter Brandt just tweeted out accurately. he says crude oil is breaking out, stock markets are breaking out, obviously Bitcoin is breaking out. And so if everything's breaking out to the upside, it basically means the denominator is starting to get really hurting, starting to hurt, and that's the dollar. So the dollar weakening, I think that's what everybody expects. Biden wants to keep the market strong, but also inflation down. But at the same time, as we all know, the governments have to keep on

somewhat staying solvent and so they need income um 20 of their of their budget is already being spent on just paying interest rates paying interest on their debt um so they're just gonna have to print a lot more the only question is when when is the big next wave coming and if you look at global m2 it's actually already trending up again so we don't even have to wait for you know powell or whoever to to say like yes you know we're now officially lowering interest rates like you know central banks around the world they're already doing it that was another interesting thing that happened this week was bukele at cpac over the weekend actually last week and basically exposing the fraud of government debt i'm not sure i followed that

yeah can you what is the summary of that basically went to cpac and gave a five minute speech on the dynamics of monetary policy and government debts and um basically laid out for the audience at cpac that your government is funded on debt and money printing like in tax collection is essentially yeah a humiliation ritual to make you think like you are actually paying for things that the government does right right right it's like it's like we're all citizens uh that you know we're all underlings of this ico this like coin and they can just print more whenever they want to but to kind of keep up the charade they're like oh well we're actually also taxing you and you got to pay your taxes but it's all just to keep up the the idea that it's actually backed by anything

the currency yeah yeah but i mean i think the bigger picture of that as well is that bitcoin and and and economics like sound economics are actually becoming genuine political talking points like yeah i saw that meeting you might have seen it too between um vivek ramaswamy and and uh melee and the first thing they said was like uh i think vivek said like hey i'm i'm more of a hyatt guy you're a mises guy like we're all friends here and then of course melee said like oh yeah but you know rothbard is uh is superior to all of them and um anyway the the he didn't say that exactly but but just the fact that like you know austrian economics just sound economics it's starting to resonate with people that like hey something's going on here like we want to

know and you can't just keep telling us that uh inflation is like the weather and that like we just have to look at consumer spending to somehow predict it like no no it's created by money printing like regular people are starting to catch on to that yeah and there's like a bunch of things in the sound economics movement i really like calling it sound economics it should just be economics plainly we shouldn't have to uh label it as austrian economics it just should be non-garbage economics yes but trends over the last year like ej and tony has been making the rounds on fox news and cnbc and getting out there he's from the heritage foundation doing a good job of explaining sound economics uh peter st ange i think his daily videos that have every single one of them seems to

go viral hundreds of thousands millions of views doing a good job of getting good education shows like this a bunch of other bitcoin shows i think people are really and again like you said malay getting elected is really an inflection point of people are waking up to the fact that the economic systems they've lived within their whole lives are potentially systemically broken yeah and we've all experienced as bitcoiners that one of the best absolute best ways to orange pill someone is just to explain the problems with the existing system and that's you know that's what the safety bitcoin standard does what so many bitcoin books are doing and so it's kind of like it's it's lifting the veal uh from people's eyes and i think the reason why the time is now is that now there's

there's actually something you can do about it and like it used to be this kind of shoulder shrug moment it's like yeah everything is kind of fucked up like you know we we know that but you know we just we just move on there's nothing we can do whereas now it's like no no you can opt out like Just get some Bitcoin. Yeah. That's the big question. Well, you could have done that the last 10 years, but now there's the relief, the psychological relief

that there is really high-profile people that are leading the charge and that are giving a good example. There's all kinds of different political colors involved with this movement. And I think that's changing. And also the access is easier. You don't have to jump through the KYC hoops anymore.

you just buy the etf or something um your advisor can is finally starting to talk about it yeah so the taboo is starting to reduce like how big in your mind are the etfs it's humongous and it's kind of boggles my mind that you know seven months ago when we talked we were talking about my report which is like you know um how to position for the bitcoin boom and it doesn't even mention etf approval as a factor i was just like super bullish and like all these tailwinds for bitcoin i didn't even and i'm kind of in a way i'm glad i didn't okay it shows how how jaded we all were and and i was after nine years of like all this regulatory fight to get it approved um that it was ever going to be approved um but i i think it's important that we we actually have a genuine bullish case

for bitcoin regardless of etf approvals i do think this is somebody said uh on twitter like this is um the equivalent of i think it was david bailey the equivalent of uh the whole world getting uh approved to their coinbase account like all of a sudden the whole world literally has direct access to bitcoin at least the western world who has a brokerage account and uh yeah i mean the amount of money going in is insane right and it's going to be of course there's going to be you know it's kind of like the 15 year old who's starting to drive with a car like yeah he's going to wreck the car at some point or some of the teenagers are and so some of these etfs are are not going to be the place to be like and there's no i mean i'm sure we agree like no way these etfs are all

going to survive the next 30 years like there's going to be some hacks there's going to be you know but it's just growing pains like it's it's it's part of the process that we we are going to live through as like you know we're kind of like the parents looking at the newbies getting into bitcoin being like yeah like people are gonna make their own mistakes and it's it's cute yeah it's funny because i see you think you're a bitcoiner because you have some some bitcoin etf shares yeah it's cute yeah a couple things here like one a bunch of people are like the etfs are here bitcoin's been co-opted uh it's done wall street's here they're gonna they're gonna control bitcoin i think lynn alden i think she was on the bitcoin frontier podcast uh and she basically

flipped it was like no like bitcoin's an open source permissionless network there's nobody no bitcoin committee that gets together and says all right we're gonna let etfs and like if etfs want to form around this asset there's nothing we can do to stop it and you should just view the etfs as an api for the incumbent financial world to plug into bitcoin in some way or another yeah yeah Exactly. And there's so much Bitcoin that is locked up, locked in, that the OTC desks don't have access to. And so the price is going to keep going up until we find some people wanting to let go of their Bitcoin. But yeah, I mean... How crazy do you think it can get? Do you think ETFs could, you know, could like custody more than a million Bitcoin or two

million maybe where are they at they're 370 or if you include gbtc they're well above 700 000 already right yeah i mean they're not too far yeah i mean it's something that we have to keep an eye on you know at at when mongox went bust it had seven percent of all bitcoin in circulation which is a nice precedent you know i did mongox never had any power over bitcoin and most of these ETFs are using Coinbase as a custodian, which just this week had another embarrassing moment where they can't seem to handle high-price volatility, their systems. Also, simple things like the retail people,

they literally saw zero balances appear instead of like an error message that, hey, we're unable to reveal your balance right now. Don't worry, your coins are safe. That's like one-on-one stuff. and they had like three-year bear market to prepare for an increase in volume. It's just, you know, it's like,

I'm always like a bit self-conscious when I criticize Coinbase because I'm kind of like, you know, well, would I do a better job? And it's like, but at the same time, like you have to think about some objective industry standards. Like we are growing up now,

companies need to, and there's other companies that show how it can be done. Like these are not impossible standards to not shit the bed the moment like Bitcoin has a surge of interest, which was totally expected. yeah maybe like maybe do a little less shit coining like maybe focus get a bit more involved

in the engineering world like because because that's for a long time and you know there are certain bitcoin companies that are that don't have that good of a reputation if you actually talk to the engineers who are a bit more insular you know and then the ones that do focus on pushing forward uh open standards getting involved in the conferences um those are the ones that kind of hold themselves to the the universal standard that we you know naturally bitcoin holds itself to yeah and you think like coinbase went through this problem in 2017 same exact thing and then brian armstrong comes out like we load tested this for a 10x increase in volume and the volume far surpassed our expectations and it's like dude we just like you said went through a three-year

bear market like of course when the interest comes back it's probably going to be 10x above what your yeah what your standard rate was during that period of time i'm afraid it's a bit of an attitude problem because like i felt like he was defensive in his tweet he was like oh but you know we tested for 10x volume increase and this you know exceeded that kind of like trying to say like there was no way that we could have predicted this like this is like a an act of god or something and like no like take responsibility i just say like hey this is not cool like you know i'm gonna get to bottom of this or so that attitude it's like it's not about this one time it's just like i think it's a pattern you know and i think it's going to cause them to lose the lead you know they're going

to lose their lead in bitcoin yeah they have a pretty massive lead right now and imagine being an etf provider we're not even etf provider somebody bought one of the etfs that these providers are distributing to the market and you know that coinbase is the custodian then you see this problem." And you're thinking, oh, the shares that I just bought in this ETF, the Bitcoin underlying it, is held by this company. I'm not comfortable with that. How many thousands of emails did customers send to... Imagine you bought a $15 million chunk or some kind of fund, and then you notice that the custodian is embarrassing themselves like this. I would email my ETF manager and be like, what's going on? Can you guys switch?

Then it highlights the centralization risk. And I tweeted this yesterday. I think you liked the tweet. Like these ETFs, if they're going to be responsible and proper fiduciaries, they should custody this Bitcoin in multi-institution, multi-sig, where you don't have a single point of failure. Yeah. And also, it's embarrassing how little insurance there really is.

I think Coinbase is only insured for like $400 million. I think it's like 1% of their hot wallets. Oh, my God. And so that means that this ETF, of all the ETFs that exist in the world, there's probably thousands, is probably the single most high-risk ETF that you can own where you have genuine risk realistically in the next five or ten years to get wiped out. Because people think an ETF is like golden, right, somehow?

But the Fed is not going to bail out bitwise if they all of a sudden get hacked or Coinbase gets hacked. No. No. So, and it'll be, I mean, so that's kind of what I think is the likely next phase is like, you know, this is, this is gonna, there's gonna be a bad event that happens somewhere during this bull cycle. And, and then the Fed is gonna be like the cavalry coming in or the regulators and they're gonna be like, hey, we need more regulation, you know, even though if we like turn back the clock and look at what happened is like, no, no, it's because you guys pretended to give this one seal of approval or like pretend to do your due diligence and then give only one company or seal of approval that this could happen in the first place but never mind that they're going to come in and say hey you know we need more regulation and then i think they're going to start pushing

for a federal reserve of bitcoin like it's weird to say it right but that seems the logical next step that they're going to be like you know we need a we need kind of a fund that is more thoroughly protected so that when these custodians go bankrupt we can then provide relief to the people that have lost money and at least you know give them a smaller haircut blah blah blah just all the usual stuff we know from the the 1910s here in the u.s like it's i don't know it feels a bit like overly simplistic like maybe there's going to be other ways that they're going to want to intervene that i'm not seeing but um but yeah so so that's another reason i think why you want to keep your money out of these um regulatory darlings uh custodians because you have that

like split in the market where there's pure market players that are just kind of like yeah regulation is just a pain in the ass like we're just going to get what we need in terms of licenses but we focus on serving our customer and having top-notch security and then another part of the market that's like we're all about compliance compliance compliance we want to become the darlings of the federal government and of like you know the powers that be and then what you're going to see is that technologically these are going to be inferior companies just like we see in the energy markets and other places and um and so you want to be on the right side of that market i mean obviously with bitcoin the nice thing is that you can obviously do your own custody

or involve a company into one of your multi-sig signatures. But yeah, I think that's probably where we're going. We're going to kind of have this split in the market. Yeah, and if you're listening out there and you're owning the ETF and you're thinking, I feel comfortable here, you have to act early because I have a microcosm example of this risk in my own life this week where I have a buddy

he's a public figure and he's talked about owning bitcoin in the past and a couple years or three years ago now at this point he had all of his bitcoin on blockfi and their yield wow yield generating products and he told me that and i was like you need to get that out like the way they're generating that yield is going to lose your bitcoin he did that moved it back to an exchange like a year later he was texting me he's like thank you when blockfi inevitably blew up he's like i got it out i listened to you have it on the exchange and i was like you don't want it on the exchange like connecting them with the people down the hall and unchained i was like set up a vault and secure your bitcoin properly because you are a public figure you are a target you've talked

about owning bitcoin and lo and behold this sunday he got sim swapped and they got control of his phone his email wow and they tried to get into old all the exchange accounts that he was previously using and holding his bitcoin on but since he had his bitcoin in a multi-sig uh collaborative custody vault with unchained keys offline they weren't able to get his bitcoin but it was only because i was telling a story similar to this at the time we had his bitcoin and block fi block fi was seemingly fine um and they inevitably blew up and then he had it on exchange and i was like that's a risk if you get hacked you're gonna lose your bitcoin yeah it was fine at that moment but he then moved to unchained and then lo and behold this week he has a personal blow up where he has a

security uh a security slip up on his end and they tried to take his bitcoin they couldn't so moral of the story is act earlier than later yeah and uh yeah no absolutely and it's almost like you know it's almost like the human body where like there's all these factors that are threatening our health and uh and our our livelihood and and but there's a silver lining because you the exposure to it builds your immune system like you just learn every time and and hopefully you know you don't get the attack is not too strong the first time around so you can still and that's where it can be a good idea i think to if you're not into self-custody yet to least diversify your custodianship and things like that um to uh to to not have all your

bitcoin eggs in one basket um um but yeah just just very very interesting stuff the world is learning so fast that's that's why another it does feel like people are learning quickly not only about bitcoin but about the corruption systemic risks that exist in the incumbent system and it does feel different i don't know if it is different it certainly feels different in many ways yeah and and i feel like we can feel that there's going to be a changing of the guard in many many countries like that because even just purely from a mathematical accountancy point of view like these kind of policies are unsustainable like you cannot spend uh that much money going forward because the the debt is chasing you down and like you're

gonna have to massively cut i was actually looking at them uh you know i grew up in belgium and so i obviously follow follow the news there still and um i remember uh just pulling up like a breakdown of the government budget and um which is totally unsustainable like they they they also have 100 debt to gdp and things like that and like some of the largest banks in europe which are zombie banks um and um and so i was like you know what would happen if melee got elected in belgium like you know what what could you cut and it pretty easily like pretty obviously you could cut like 80 of the budget 80 which means you could actually either lower taxes by 80 or you know start paying or like balance the budget at least and and uh very quickly which we've seen in

argentina as well in like 90 days they had the first um uh reversal of the deficit in like 12 years or 12 administrations i think 12 years um so but yeah like you know and but so in order to implement those ideas you need new people like you you people are not going to believe the existing politicians that they who created this problem that they can sort of figure you know they will They only know how to dig the debt hole deeper, right? And so, yeah, it's just becoming so obvious to me that there's going to be a changing of the guards. And I think in some countries it's going to be great. And in other countries it's going to be kind of scary because it'll be kind of, you know, also people that don't get it,

but that just have a slightly different story and they're just going to try and keep digging. And we're going to, you know, have people get stuck. But at least I think there's going to be more of a diverse picture that is going to show up. And in some ways, I think a lot of Bitcoiners are looking around and kind of trying to understand which country is going where to decide, like, am I going to keep living here? I'm going to like try and get like residency in that country just as like a plan B or I definitely feel that there is more discussion about that. um definitely look in europe like it it's just it's one of the most precarious places yeah yeah yeah no it really is um it really is because you know historically there were some places that you could go to like you know maybe like switzerland or the uk or like there was some

like the uk in the way was like the america of of you know a couple hundred years ago that's where people would would go to um but like people are getting thrown in jail there for for like uh just purely things that just pure opinions right that are then labeled as racist or whatever it is because they have all these hate crime laws that are awful right they're throwing people in jail they're finding them and uh and uh of course there's zero self-defense and so if crime gets out of hand like there's you you know if there's going to be armed gangs and stuff like people are just unable to help themselves and you can also get sued for defending yourself you know so so yeah it is um you know it's it's precarious i think there's still gonna be good places in in europe

and or in that in that sphere um it's because it's it's a big continent and you have all that game theory stuff that starts playing on because once as a country you start really being bitcoin friendly like you become like a magnet and then i think there's like uh it just strengthens there's momentum that comes from that and then of course there's a lot of money that's going to follow so there's going to be uh economic incentives to keep it that way um so i don't know maybe like in iceland or uh there's so many you know things that are on the periphery that could really flourish um but yeah it's it's it's not looking good in general it's it's not looking good because also because of all the censorship people can't even discuss the problems it's so

sad right you can't even just like you and i sitting here like i don't i don't feel worried about am i gonna say the wrong thing like can i get sued or or thrown in jail but like it's so weird you know and growing up i never had that feeling but the last 10 years it really started shifting that way uh where i just honestly i couldn't tweet the things i tweet i don't think or say the things i'd say on podcasts if i still lived in belgium no and ireland's got crazy hate speech laws you can't post memes without the police knocking on your door same in the uk canada did you see the last thing the proposal no it's in canada right yeah the minister life in prison of justice is backing this bill it's a proposed bill indeed uh throwing people in jail

for life um for like this whole list of uh supposed hate crimes which is like discriminating people are talking badly about people based on age uh physical appearance religion like basically the whole comedy scene you could just like shut it down like say okay boomer you're in the clinker for life it's just complete insanity oh my god and so and so it's it again makes it so clear why this is this movement of bitcoin is so important because it's censorship resistant money it means you can get the hell out you know like you can just and it's like an insurance policy you can just have it stay living where you are with your family if you decide like look we're all frogs here this is getting a bit hot i'm gonna jump out you can do it yeah and i think

think we need to better not align ourselves because i think we're already very aligned but ally with movements like the one that happened in argentina with malay here in the united states there's a big contingent of conservative thinkers and organizations like heritage and um obviously the misis institute that there's a lot of people to understand that things are systemically broken whether it's in the financial sector the energy sector the big pharma sector and they grok that central planning is the core issue of all these sectors and the government's meddling is leading to massive disruptions in the market and the quality of life for individuals and yet many of them do not grok bitcoin and understand that if they were to lean into it an ally with the bitcoin

movement it would be extremely powerful yeah it's more than just a lifeboat right because the lifeboat idea is like oh you know you can kind of get away from the problem or survive a little bit it's really like you have this society as a body and then there's a big cancer who's like growing and um and really undermining the the ability for the the body to survive um which is that like welfare warfare complex that's fueled by fiat and uh and so bitcoin really is a system that helps the body route energy around that and siphon energy away from the cancer to literally starve it and to diminish its influence and diminish its power because the the you know the power uh ideology ideologues and uh like these people think in terms of violence it it literally

is how the system is wired and that's why things are so precarious now because if if there wasn't bitcoin i would be a lot more worried not that i'm not worried now but it's just like i i really i would struggle so hard to find an alternative to world war three right but like this idea of like And, you know, literally defunding, defunding all these dangerous institutions and giving the money literally or allowing the economic energy to flow to people that are peaceful minded, that are long term oriented, that might withdraw for a while from the, you know, the chaos. And then once things start to settle down a bit, can come in and help, you know, reestablish institutions, retool things, build new institutions. That's, I mean, that's giving me so much hope, you know. and and the fact that you don't it's the first time in history that this can happen where the the wealth is not tied down geographically and so it's just so powerful

that you can have a family office or like a very large stash of wealth that is just hanging in the cloud where those those uh violence oriented i don't know socialists communists whatever you want to call them collectivists that's probably a good word uh where where they cannot be reached where they cannot reach that yeah and this is a conversation people have a lot in the bitcoin space is like how long will it take to get to that point where we can the dust is settled and we can come in and begin rebuilding institutions and reinvesting in a stronger economy and i might be naive maybe too optimistic too idealist whatever word you want to use but i think the reflexive nature of the bitcoin price expedites the process much yeah it does which which is why

bitcoin is going to be attacked like we can predict it now right i mean bitcoin is going to be blamed for the inflation because people are going to say you know the powers that be are going to be like this is wrong like you know you guys are getting everyone to invest in your pyramid scheme therefore we have so much inflation it's it's your fault and uh and we're just going to have to kind of shrug and be like well good thing i'm out of dodge because uh you know i i i think you're wrong i i don't wish you any ill but i don't want to be thrown into a cage for for disagreeing with you and um so yeah i'm just gonna wait until you're kind of tired because you know you are now poor but even with that point like i think they're losing again the public like look

at elizabeth warren yeah the department of energy the eia right this registry they sent the miners riot texas blockchain council got on the horn right away basically like no you're not doing this and now it seems like it's settled i'm not sure exactly where it sits right now but they initially got a temporary restraining order they were supposed to have a case or a hearing on wednesday that got canceled it seems like there's a settlement outside of the court that happened which doesn't seem like we have to answer the survey anymore and we have all the data on our side like in that particular argument where they're like uh bitcoin's dangerous to the grids you literally just pull up the data of ercot the large flexible loads and you point to it and you're

like bitcoin miners are 95 of the large flexible load in this grid and you can visibly see when they turn off when demand spikes and you can visibly see the prices go down because they turn off yeah yeah your arguments hold no weight yeah yeah yeah but i i i feel like i can almost speak from experience um because like like i grew up in belgium which which is which has that culture of like you know you kind of bow your head you're like you just kind of you know stay below um the the the lawnmower um and uh there's always a fear of like there there's a lot of pressure for people to be normal or whatever to kind of to kind of just survive like focuses on survival more than like let's do the best you can do let's be ambitious

let's you know like let's speak your mind which which is understandable because the history um and so and there is that like victim complex which is unfortunate but i think it's very real um and it's this idea that basically it's when you haven't processed trauma you just recreate it right and so belgium was invaded twice in a century and um and uh horrible things happened and as a different from the uk where they actually had treatment centers for ptsd and stuff there's extremely little of that in belgium so there's just that's why you know addiction is so prevalent and things like that but i think if you if you haven't and i i do think people pass it on even like from generation to generation that like victim mindset if you haven't really come to

terms with what happened um and then you just basically recreate it and i think this is kind of what happened were you you project helplessness into other people and you think like oh we got to help them and they've done that with uh with immigrants like they've really like oh these people in in in all around the world who are suffering like oh i recognize that you know we've been there and i i'm not saying it's wrong to empathize you know not at all but like from that kind of almost well definitely immature standpoint they've started massively subsidizing immigration like really to the extent where people get the same monetary benefits as you know local citizens who've paid taxes for generations and then those kind of

things not that i'm in favor of even that kind of welfare but that's another story but so yeah and so what they've done rather than having a system which is a little bit more the way the u.s works where it's like sure you can become an immigrant here and but you you you pay your own way you you You figure it out how to do it on a voluntary basis. You find a way to add value economically. You find a job, et cetera. So because of that victim mindset, Belgians started to subsidize immigrants, and they've literally attracted a different kind of people. I don't mean racially speaking.

I just mean the type of person who would be attracted to welfare is a different type of person who would be attracted to, here's an open market with very high mobility where it's easy to climb the ladder of society if you just put in the work, right? That's different. And so now Belgium has lots and lots of immigrants that are being actively subsidized. I just saw a statistic where it says literally of all the countries in Europe, the degree of employment in Belgium among immigrants is the lowest. It's 50%. So 50% not only does not work, but of the 50% that does work, a lot of them even work only part time. and if you don't work you don't have a job you literally get unemployment benefits just like everybody else so it's completely unsustainable um but but it's that it's that mindset and and

i guess what i wanted to get at was when i started talking about this helplessness mindset is that um it comes with a sort of um almost like a a visceral set of um what should i call it emotional impulses that regulate your behavior like you're basically kind of an unstable person and but you keep things going by viscerally responding to certain things in your environment and so one of the things that i remember when i was like 18 um in belgium there is a party called the flemish block and they actually uh because of the anti uh racism laws they were sued and they then just restarted the party with a different name um so which is also kind of bizarre in itself like you know you get sued as a party because of you know things you've

said it sounds weird to me uh but so um but so this is a party that's long been for like more independence in flanders but they had a like a strong anti-immigrant standpoint and for sure i don't want to like whitewash it like there's there's people involved in there that are like definitely racist and you know like but i think rather unfairly they've been labeled as like extreme right like literally like nazis and uh so they've been boycotted for like 20 30 years now and so so when i was like 19 or something or 20 something like that or 18 a friend of mine said like just we were just talking and by the way he said like oh that he had voted for this party and i i felt sick i i felt sick to my stomach it just the weirdest thing to now like look back on

just because somebody voted for a party and then later i looked and actually looked at their program and they're even like in favor not not that i'm i would vote for them but they're even in favor of like swiss style democracy where it's like you know you vote by referendum and so there's like it's definitely a mixed bag right i mean now i wouldn't say like these guys are evil and all the rest are so much better but because of my training because in the in the school system and you know everything is just you get programmed to have a very visceral reaction against certain things and so anyway just long story but that's what i think of when i see people like elizabeth warren just like just say the craziest things with a straight face is that they seem like people to

me that have been like you know really brought up in this like uh religion of victimhood and they just cannot are allergic to reason are allergic to certain ideas and so bitcoin is just too much too much responsibility she assumes that she can't handle it she assumes that her constituents can't handle it and she feels like she needs to protect her her flock and that's my that's my um totally amateur analysis everybody needs to go read their soul on victimhood it is because it soul oh yeah is that how you pronounce it time of soul soul yeah i'm not known for uh correct pronunciation it's time i i should learn my pronunciations as well i'm probably worse than ureter um it's denigrate denigrate logan i'm gonna try to get it right before he dies at least

no it is it is that's because it's such a comp all these issues we're talking about are so complex to solve and that's why i anchored a bitcoin because it's like all right we're gonna solve all these problems let's focus on one first and an important one which is money yep then to your point like rewiring people's brains to get out of the victimhood mentality is a daunting task well and it's and you literally can't do it like literally when you like look into all the programs to help addicts and stuff like that like the main thing is like just like you know you kind of do your thing and let them do their thing because the more you start to like you know treating them like their children the more they get enabled right and the

actually the longer the dysfunction is going to last like you're you're you're feeding the cancer right and so it's kind of like compassionately you just have to kind of be like i'm gonna buy my bitcoin you guys do your thing but i i feel like it helps me to because because they can get under your skin right to be like oh like you know what are you doing to us and like you know and so it's like to to deal with that like to be like oh am i being an asshole like by by like you know just uh promoting bitcoin and and and not whatever don't because that's often a thing like oh you gotta donate money and you gotta like it's like actually no i think if we build this economy out we focus on that like even sailor right if he were to just be like i'm not gonna donate a single

bitcoin to a thing i'm gonna just burn all my private keys he would be doing a boon to the world yeah well he does want to go to the grave with his private keys he sent that uh i didn't know i i know he's talked about the possibility but i i didn't know he actually oh maybe the possibility oh okay misquoting him no but it's i'm so uh conflicted because i can see both sides because one thing at 10 31 we've been having a lot of calls with people and one of the big themes across all the calls is recent bitcoiners who radicalized in 2020 and 2021 they had their eyes open to government overreach money printing found bitcoin eyes wide open holy crap this is the solution i just wonder how many others out there that we haven't spoken like what is the percentage

of the overall population that had a somewhat radicalized experience yeah yeah and also like even the word right radical like we often like viscerally growing up i would have been like oh you know if you're radical you're kind of scary get down to the definition of the word it is like radically different perspective on the world it's like radical change but literally the latin root is radis which is root so it just means you're going to the root that's all you know it's like like it's it's weird right once you just start thinking about it calmly it's like what does it actually mean to be radical so like yeah i'm a radical you know there's nothing wrong with that i'm gonna get down to the root cause of what's going on and try to work from first principles

you have to get radical to think from first principles but it is again too like the language policing even though we discussed all these hate speech laws that are coming uh in europe and canada i do think people are throwing their hands up like whoa like you're i think they're tired of the orwellian yeah well not only the propaganda but the policing of individuals exactly and and And our context is actually, ironically, this is all happening in a context of, well, fittingly, understandably, this is all happening in a context of even growing connectivity. The world is more connected than ever before with Starlink and everything. Like you can literally live in the bush and have, you know, have internet. And now, you know, we're starting to get like peer-to-peer technologies that allows us to untether from more centralized internet providers.

and additionally the language barrier is finally being breached right bridged with ai you literally it's happening now i was asking i was talking to a translator uh dming with him uh asking like so how is ai right now impacting your ability to translate and i think he said the cost is down um i think it's like down 75 so that means efficiency has increased by 4x and he says most publishers haven't caught on to it but actually a lot of translators for your first draft you just like run it through an ai and you have a pretty good first draft and then you kind of like brush it up and stuff so i i think people who grew up in english don't realize like how poor the accessibility of information really is in almost any other language like maybe spanish

is a little different because it's such a big one but like like dutch i remember like or i just know from growing up the dutch actually buy uh extreme amounts of books like per capita like one of the highest amounts in the world they print lots and lots of books and so having grown up in flanders we had access to that same market it's the same language um but if you think about it like if if if um the the ideas that are being disseminated via in the book market let's say that that we're we're looking at English language books, it's going to be, it's going to follow a power law where you have a very, very long tail of just books that are less and less popular and that have more radical ideas, right? And the ones that are closest to the curve that are most popular

are going to be the cookbooks and the like, you know, Hillary Clinton's memoir and stuff like that. So, but so, and so the ones that are being translated are all in that popular bracket, like the more radical ones who are who are ahead of the curve who are like kind of like most novel science don't get translated so people are trapped in a language island very very often and it's not enough like you travel around europe and you think like oh but these people speak english it takes a level of proficiency to get comfortable with reading a book in english most people really don't do it um like 90 i bet only maybe one percent of the population will it's probably even maybe one in a thousand i don't know one in one in a hundred maybe we'll

read a book in english on a regular basis and and and then because of they having grown up in that island they have that bias so they don't necessarily know to find the ideas that are going to juxtapose what they already believe so anyway so that's why i'm so optimistic for the coming generation because instant translation it's coming it's here almost right i mean you see the hey gen video of malay malay's speech and it translates to english that too perfect right yeah yeah so and we can even see them like lip synced and all in your local language it's incredible yeah and there was a big super bowl commercial i think it was galaxy one of the phone providers ran this big spot where a gentleman lands and i believe thailand or something an

american and he gets an uber and he's voice messaging with the uber driver and he's speaking in english and it's automatically translating it to thai and then the audio comes out in thai oh my god yeah because i mean in one of my first jobs uh was translating this uh this giant book by Jesus Huerta de Soto about business cycles. It's like 500 pages, crazy amount of footnotes. It took me nine months, nine months. Every month I would like send in a chapter and they would pay me.

I could like barely pay my rent and then like do the next chapter. And it was harrowing. And after that, I was like, I'm never doing this again. This is just crazy. I learned a lot, but I mean, like that's the amount of work. Whereas now like that same book, I don't know, an hour, you throw it in the the ai and and you have like a 80 percent version you know maybe maybe i'm

because it's it's a technical book so maybe it's only like 70 or 75 percent but but i mean it's coming right it's just so exciting all this all this austrian economics like that's been trapped you know in a way it's and of course you know the whole the the bitcoin canon like everything that's on uh nakamoto institute like we can translate that to 100 languages in a snap now you got me all bullish and optimistic it's like imagine what the world would be like in a decade two decades from now the government's just got away out of the way allowed us to adopt bitcoin allowed us to lean into ai yeah like yeah and we run our own ais locally right we don't have to abide by some...

We don't have to go get a license to run away. Some Google AI or something, yeah. Yeah, and then go on. We don't have to go... I mean, it seems abundantly clear that the open AIs of the world, the Googles of the world,

are actively petitioning to create regulatory moats and a licensing machine. And they lie. They're trained to lie. Yes. I mean, Google's Gemini product is laughably bad.

That's the other thing, too, which makes me optimistic, is these people at high levels of the power structure, whether it's in politics or big tech or big media, they're just laughably shooting themselves in the foot. Like that Gemini release was like, are you kidding me? Yeah, and I mean, on the one hand, you don't want to underestimate, you know,

the ability that people in power have to, you know, go after individuals and things like that. But on the other hand, like, it's just so exciting to get involved in this in this burgeoning uh world economy it's like bitcoin it's not even an island it's like a continent it's like a new continent it's like don't you want to live in the new world it's like how exciting is it so like so so i think that there is a there is a brain drain from from people that um prior were in wall street and government and like kind of just all meshed in with the powers that be and now we have this like

alternative um you know it's like this this new continent where you can yeah the casualty rate is pretty high still but uh i mean it's so exciting and you you just feel that it's like this is where the next generations of people are going to create amazingly beautiful things yeah and it's already happening so for example lyle pratt uh from vita bitcoiner what they're doing at vita to combine ai and bitcoin to reduce phone spam is pretty fascinating like he we went through a demo of their product last week on a call and what they're able to do for very little money is insane so is it like with

where you have to pay a little bit to call someone it actually acts as a screener like if you're in my contact list you don't have to pay me but if you're not you get screened by Vita and then you reach an agent, my AI agent which basically snuffs out

what's this call for, are you spam are you actually trying to get a hold of this person in a way in which they would want to respond and then you can give the agent like hey all right if this that and the other thing happens like yeah ping me let me know that you should probably call them back or so it's like your ai bodyguard yes damn but like i mean you can do really unique things with that it reminds me of uh and the cost is so cheap wow that reminds me of jesse powell back in 2015 he had this like little

project called elephant grass where i don't know if it was like very early and he was basically just a little script where automatically whoever wanted to email him would get an email back and say like, well, you know, send some Bitcoin to this address and then, and then I'll respond. Yeah, that's what 21Co pivoted to eventually. Oh, and so, but he said people hated him for it and he stopped doing it. But in a way you could say like, well, you know, it just wasn't intelligent enough. This was like, kind of like a mechanical bodyguard that was just, you know, too simplistic for the actual market demand. yeah and you can think of it too like there's instances where maybe it's not a spammer maybe

it's a a brand that's trying to get a hold of me and yeah if they want to pay me a thousand sats for me to read uh basically a text message advertisement or respond to a survey to see if i'd be a likely customer like yeah if you're gonna give me a thousand sets yeah i'll look at it i'll read it i'll interact maybe maybe you're worth a little more than a thousand yes yes i don't know the price going up. That could be a lot of money. Yeah, but that means your importance also goes up. Quick break here, freaks. This rip is brought to you by Gradually Then Suddenly, a framework for understanding Bitcoin as money by Parker Lewis. I wrote the forward to the book. I'm honored to have done so because it's the best zero to one primer if you're looking for

a logical explanation of why Bitcoin obsoletes all other money. Buy one for yourself and maybe be a few for your friends go to the safehouse.com slash gradually that's the safehouse.com safe spelled s-a-i-f the safehouse.com slash gradually use the promo code tftc for five dollars off at checkout buy it now freaks the price of bitcoin is going up you need to understand it this is the best zero to one primer back to the show back to price like how high do you think we can go this damn i know uh we're back on stock i know how actually i like i like david's theory david bailey's theory of um that the magnet this time around is going to be the gold parity so like six hundred thousand dollar bitcoin that as we as we go up and we go especially

once we go above a hundred it's like okay new territory like what's next it seems like the obvious target to lock on to uh of course you can say a million bucks which is uh samsung mouse uh you know his uh theory that that's going to happen this time but i i i like the 600k one because it kind of like whoever is targeting for a million is is obviously going to have to pass through 600 000 as well uh and it's just such an important like psychological thing to be like holy hell there's some 6 000 year old money we just surpassed it in 15 years or 16 years something like that so um but i think in lately i've been thinking about i've always been so hesitant to put price targets on on a bull market because i feel that what is more certain much more certain

uh and maybe what everything hinges on in a bull market is the length of the length of time that we're talking about i think the human brain is only capable of so much excitement for so long and so much fomo and so much adrenaline and everything else that at some point after a certain while on average so there must be like we need a science like the bull market science or something where people you know like how um insurance companies have actuarial tables where they can predict like how many people will die of a given population like we need that same thing We're like, you know, how long until people go crazy, you know, in a bull market? Like, you know, like there must be a point.

And you can even maybe look back at the Bitcoin cycles and figure it out. But yeah, so I think that people's brains just get fried at some point. And then they just go nuts and they go in with leverage and they kind of like they kind of mess it up for themselves. And because once you start levering up, then you push the prize beyond what makes sense. And then even conservative people get confused and get caught up in that. and then they might take profit off the table and then you actually have the correction and you go into a bear phase again so anyway long story short to just say that you know rather than predicting how high it's going to go i i want to say maybe there's you know

psychological fuel in the tank for like a two-year like real bull market and um and then the fact that we're starting with such a big push right now in the beginning makes me very very bullish it reminds me of like 2013 where like people thought like oh damn like it's going like we were talking 10 bucks in 2012 and then we went to like 30 which was the previous all-time high and then it just like zoomed past that and we went to i believe 1400 right actually no we We went to 270 in the spring of 2013, and then it declined. It went down to 80 bucks, and people thought it was over. And then that, in a span of just a few months, we just went back on the horse,

and by the end of the year 2013, we were at 1,200 bucks. So like from 10 to 1,200, 100x in two years' time. you know so the fact that we we had we we have so much going on right now it makes me very bullish and it so it makes me think like maybe this could be one of those two-legged like there's going to be a big fake out and then we just keep steaming forward and so all within a span of two years yeah we could we could hit a million bucks like it's weird to say but uh it's it's almost like only a 10x from here really yeah 600 000 is well i guess maybe a better question is like how How strong do you think the floor that will be developed in this market will be when you factor in ETFs getting in?

A lot of people are saying that that money may be stickier than allocators of years past. The ETFs are in. I mean, I've been hearing a lot of rumblings out of the Middle East that people are seriously looking at this. The sovereign wealth funds, the energy producers. I would be pretty confident that we're going to see more nation states enter the fray pretty publicly. over the next two years who are all going to be i mean a bunch of them will have limit orders to buy the dip right they're going to have limit orders all the way down so i think those are important factors to think about sailor's not going to be sitting on his island in the public

markets alone for too long no no exactly we have a halving like yeah yeah yeah yeah i mean at what point do we just completely detach from cycles if at all no i think it's important to really consider the idea of that four-year cycle it's going to be gone because the money is really gonna we're gonna live in a different world uh like so far we've been living in a world where you could actually make some money being invested in bonds government bonds and that's gone almost entirely right i mean people are even buying bonds with negative interest rates and making money on like that's only a few years ago so so in a bond crash because basically the fiat system because you have monetary tokens that are being debased all the time obviously there's no incentive to

hold cash and so they kind of developed this proof of stake system which is like oh now you have yield which is all that government bond stuff and and certain people have access to the yielding things and like and so therefore and and the longer term you are invested in the system the higher reward you might get so you know buy those long-dated bonds like 100-year bonds or perpetual bonds right um so so so with with the rug being pulled and that whole edifice it's so hard to predict like what would be the bottom because you're that means you're putting on your dollar glasses and you're looking at the bitcoin price but like what if the world starts throwing away their dollar glass and be like this doesn't make sense to even think about you know

like the argentine peso like you know let's speculate like what would be the the bottom of the next cycle for the bitcoin price it's like i don't know there's gonna be so many dips like we can speculate about the volatility along the way like how how percentage wise how big are the correction is going to be but but to have like a really lengthy bottoming periods um that assumes you have a stable currency to begin with and so i'm not saying that the dollar is going into hyperinflation this you know the next two three years but it's really something to keep in mind as a possibility you know to just not be like oh yeah i'm counting on the next bottom of the bear is going to be 200 000 so once we go above that i'm going to start selling and you know

to have that hole and then i'm gonna somehow pay my capital gains tax but still you know it's like no no don't do it i would say like yeah sure like sell a bit of bitcoin if you think it'll help you cover your living expenses for the next two years sure like okay some cash but don't that's what i generally would recommend don't speculate on um on these big swings you might want to speculate a little bit with borrowed money like if you can borrow money that is like in a small percentage of your total wealth your total liquid net worth and uh and then you have some cash and you you can kind of play around with that if you're a good trader you can do that right but but but to sell your principal i don't know i i just think it's a bad idea yeah tour i've been getting laughed at a

because i i truly believe that this time like the culmination of all the events we've been describing yeah this whole con like i i find it hard to believe that this time isn't different like when you have all this money coming in from the utfs it's sticky money i think the nation states are getting in a big way the energy sector is getting in in a big way utility of what you can do with bitcoin is improving at a rapid pace it's getting integrated into a bunch of different things very early stages and these integrations whether it's noster ai or super collateral um for for credit agreements whatever it may be like i think i don't know the 2024 election the state of the lack of confidence in these institutions like i i think

i find it hard to believe that we have these four-year cycles like we have had in the past well let's steelman that right is what is a scenario where there is kind of an there's a way for governments to extend the confidence that the general public has in their currencies i think one scenario is where on the one hand our dream quote-unquote comes true or our prediction that central banks start buying Bitcoin. But then what if they turn around and governments start saying, oh, our currency is now backed by Bitcoin.

So this is as good as gold. And we guarantee that it's legal. You can pay your taxes with it. It's going to retain its value, blah, blah, blah. So why would you just go into that gray, ugly market where terrorists are also active and like buy your bitcoin and like deal with all these like shady devices where they can steal your money like just buy the euro it's now backed by clean bitcoin that is ethically mined you know so

so i think i mean i need to think this through but like the thing there is always i've learned to not to try and not underestimate the extent to which people can let's take it in i've learned to not underestimate how gullible markets can be like when ethereum came out i was like this is a fucking scam like even the way the auction was set up was like this is like reverse dutch auction and like there's no way to know the supply beforehand and like and look here we are like what uh nine years later there was worth like billions of dollars and like and it's so far keeping up with bitcoin and in this market in this bull market you know it's just like and and and iq wise the average iq of market participants is going down because like now we're talking mass

adoption so i don't know it's i've just i've just had to eat a lot of humble pie like i thought back in and there's there's gold bulls that have been predicting hyperinflation since the late 70s the 1970s that's like 50 years they'd be like this thing is gonna blow up and they were right

but it's so hard to like actually nail it I mean that said we're the closest we've ever been that's for sure

that's for damn sure we're the closest we've ever been to a complete collapse and we also know thanks Parker you know people go bankrupt

gradually and then suddenly so like there's gonna be a waterfall moment where we're in free fall yeah it's going to be very sudden once it happens yeah and that's what like you mentioned the

average iq of everybody entered the market is falling as mass adoption happens which i agree but i believe like the average iq if you index the average iq for the amount of money that's coming into the space like i think the higher iq section of the market is accumulating way more bitcoin right now than retail investors would be i mean yeah and but it's so much as a function of psychology really because there's there's highly like you know elizabeth warren is no dummy she doesn't lack i'm sure about that i mean yeah she has like a phd or whatever like i'm not saying she's genius but i mean like you know she's she's not retarded sorry is that can i say that anymore yes she's not regarded coming back it's coming back we're in austin like comedy capital of the

world um we need to get those guys down here by the way we need to figure out a way mothership just two blocks away they need to start coming into the we went to see tom green uh two fridays ago it was awesome yeah it was awesome yeah austin is really special yeah man it's so special to have that and i think it's actually not a coincidence and you're totally right like there there's all this cross-pollination that i think is bound to happen and like yeah let's let's make it happen but but um there's so much there it's waiting to happen like this this i and i think it's gonna not dilute bitcoin it's going to enrich it to like have all these people from different backgrounds get involved and and uh and and we can all learn from each other exactly not only that's it's going

to be a symbiotic relationship because we had the uh one of the gentlemen from the university of austin which is caddy corner to us here at the yeah comments him on the podcast no he came through and just like wanted to see what was going on here and that's like a prime example you have yep i've been to several of their events like just that that's another one another evolution of things that are happening at the forefront like really like a new university with new people and and uh like a real radical openness to ideas yeah yeah yeah that's like you get those guys you get us you get the comedians down the down the road there's music scene music scene last time we talked about music i think there's a lot of symbiosis that could that could happen i think

empower your new university with bitcoin empower your monetization your comedy with bitcoin and then yeah your endorsements of this tool are going to help bitcoin at the end of the day yeah it's like uh it's like the shipping industry 500 years ago it's like you know who wouldn't want to use this you know the technology of shipping and navigation to further their you know what they're about and and the more radical people in europe they would use that and then that's why we have those different um periods of settlement in the u.s where the most radical people in europe would just start a little colony or start a trading post uh using that technology of shipping that wasn't available before like people were able to cross an ocean but apparently uh nick

says this that um the breakthrough in the 1500s was um i forget the exact if it was the sextant or something like that but people gained the ability to find their way back because that was the thing like you could go wherever you wanted but the tools didn't allow you to figure out the same way back i didn't realize yeah yeah yeah yeah because you imagine like just thinking about flying in the air when i was in college at chicago it was a three hour flight on the way there and a two and a half hour flight on the way back so you have these different dynamics at play like in the air with the with the stream yeah and it exists in the air well yeah and so it really helps if you know where you are on the map that that's the kind of number one requirement that's

another like our map's accurate that's the uh you mean like you mean in terms of uh how large the countries are and stuff yeah i mean the peterson projection is the one you you got to look at to to realize how large africa is for example yeah and how relatively small russia is and place like that it is crazy that's like a weird form of propaganda of uh like the the globe started by a belgian really yeah mercator yeah why was why did he i mean the map in this way i think it kind of makes intuitive sense right i mean you just have the globe and you just kind of cut it out and you and then you but then you have all these like these if you like a balloon right if you cut it out you put it on a flat piece of paper then you have all these weird pointy things

at the top and then what what are you going to have a bunch of emptiness like well you don't want that so you try and connect them so you have to like stretch them out and then you have these nice straight lines so the thing is just appeals to people's sense of aesthetics and then it was nice a nice side effect that all of a sudden europe looked bigger um and so yeah it was made in europe so it makes sense that they would come up with that i think yeah and since you mentioned a good segue into the event that will be here wednesday oh yeah south by southwest you austin kelly getting a group of people together here at the commons to talk about bitcoin urbanism yeah oh man i'm so excited somebody said somebody posted this meme of like i forget some comedian

it's just like some gif some comedian who's like at at the gates that are closed he's like let me in and i was like i feel exactly the same way even though i'm i'm hosting it but uh no i'm i'm so excited um bitcoin urbanism i mean everything is being bitcoinified right and because because bitcoin is changing the world so we need to kind of look at every everything that exists in society and it's like do we need to rethink this like what does it mean if we throw bitcoin in the mix we always talk about how bitcoin changes people's time preference it lowers your time preference makes you think more long term and so this event is going to be about well what does that mean for building what does that mean when people build a house when people start interconnecting houses

in a community or commission developments. Is that going to look different? I think it is. And I think a lot of the former kind of glory that we love, things that we love about these older cities that were built when the world was on a gold standard is going to come back. So there's just a lot to be said about how housing has changed over time and then how a different mindset and a different type of access to capital

and different people having access to capital is going to really change how people build a house. And it's very exciting. My granddad, you know, I was like six years old and I remember like seeing the building site and then gradually like seeing the building emerge and, you know, the house is still there. You know, that idea of like building something from the ground up

and then especially imagining that it would stand there for a long time. And I grew up in Bruges, which is, like, one of the best preserved, you know, stone masonry-based cities in the world. And so the contrast has been so stark, right, to move to the U.S. and to see, to live in this startup society where, to me, like... It's all crap. I mean, to me, the houses look like they're made out of sticks and cardboard, right? It's like, what is this? I mean, they literally are in a lot of cases. Yeah, they are.

The doors are made out of cardboard in a lot of houses. Yeah. And also like the buildings, the quality actually has been declining over the last 10 years because of all the cheap money. So there's just so much to be said about how the money changes everything. And so that's why I'm so optimistic as well about how that's going to change. You know, we don't, people have been part of the, you know, I don't like the word, but part of the propaganda that people have been fed is that everyone needs to have a house. Like, I don't think that's true. If you have, what would you rather have? Like, you know, you quote unquote own your own house made of cardboard and sticks and that's going to fall apart unless you maintain it every three years? Or would you rent in a beautiful stone house that's going to, that you get to occupy and it's going to be standing the next 500 years? I'm not saying everybody should pick the latter, but I think we're going to gradually evolve to a society where most people are going to choose that. They're going to save in Bitcoin and they're going to rent.

And then there's going to be a minority of capitalists that just make it their business focus to build and maintain houses and there'll be landlords. And that's totally fine. It's not exploitative. It's win-win. It means that it's division of labor, all that stuff. What's Austin's last name again? Austin Tunnell. Tunnell.

Yeah, he's in Oklahoma City, and that's where he has his business. And he's doing really cool things in terms of building. Yeah, I actually visited one of his builds. Yeah, so Austin, I believe about, I'm trying to think, I think it's about close to 10 years ago, made a career switch and started learning from this other guy who's also in Oklahoma. He has a website, I think it's called The Thousand Year House, and very masonry focused, because bricks are so amazing. We often talk about how Bitcoin should scale in a modular way. You

want layers that are clearly delineated and separated from each other that interlink so so that you have these clear building blocks and that's exactly what a brick is like this literal this little field building is also built out of bricks and it's it makes it so versatile and predictable and um and so yeah anyway he started learning like how to build uh load-bearing masonry walls because nowadays if you look around in the u.s most of the time if it's a newer build you'll see the bricks like that and they'll all be the same size one next to another and that's that's a pretty good giveaway that it's purely ornamental like it's just a little layer that's that's not carrying any weight at all it's just kind of pasted on top of it to make it look nice

but so that building then is just a pastiche of you know an actual brick building and so that's what he builds is actual brick buildings where where the bricks carry the weight of the house and it's it's those kind of houses that not only are they so beautiful and like when you walk into them you feel the sturdiness you feel safe uh it has like wonderful uh qualities when it comes to heat exchange and and moisture exchange as well like the air is actually qualitatively better in houses like that but also if if the economy goes through a period of depression and you cannot afford to maintain it there's nobody there for like 20 years and it's starting to be dilapidated the house is fine you can just you know go back in there and and fix it up and it'll be fine it'll

be beautiful or if you want to expand it you just you know you can just make a new doorway or or or add you know and that's what you see in belgium all the time is these very old houses that have gradually they're like living things almost they gradually change and they get they get you know depending on the needs of the occupants, which is a beautiful thing. And you don't have that with especially concrete, for example. Concrete is very difficult to change. It has all kinds of issues when there's rebar. Yeah, well, concrete itself is not that bad,

but because there's such haste in the economy and builders just want something that works right now, no matter whether it's going to last for 10 years or 20. So they put steel rebar in there. to kind of have tensile strength to like be able to to hold up weight and and cross a larger area uh well that steel uh once it starts rusting it literally just breaks down the concrete because it expands it literally cracks and destroys the concrete over time so um so yeah there's the you know brick doesn't have that at all like that's why it's so so inert and beautiful so anyway so

That's Austin's background, and the houses that he's built so far are just amazing. It just baffles me that he's one of the very few in the U.S. that do that. It's incredible to me that it's almost like a lost art, and it's not even that much more expensive. I think it's like 20%, 30% more expensive to build a house like that. But for a developer, that's life or death because they compete with all these other cheap builders who provide what the market wants. And most people are not even in the mentality of living in their house for an extended period of time. They're probably going to flip it. So very interesting to see this.

What do you guys plan on covering? well i mean it'll be just thinking about the parallels between um like bitcoin as a as a as a technology that's durable and um and uh that has all these beautiful beneficial side effects and then classical architecture which similarly has a lot of durable principles that make a whole lot of sense together and uh probably one of the things is going to be to clarify that like like to to enjoy classical architecture doesn't mean you're a luddite and that you're against you know anything that's new or or um but it can it it's you know what it can mean is just that you appreciate things that really work and they're time tested and proven which is similar to what's

associated with bitcoin so that's just one of the aspects that we'll we'll talk about and then of course there's that exciting speculation of like well if we imagine an entire economy already being the bitcoin standard like what kind of projects would you see emerge that we don't see today yeah you're not a lot if you like classical architecture you just objectively like good aesthetics and beauty in the world well i i think i'm a little hesitant it's like people like roger scrutin and like the british like conservatives like they kind of like really focus on like oh but it's just ecstatically aesthetically beautiful and and um and then there but to me then there's always like yeah but what about people that say like oh but i just love

modernism and to me that's beauty and then there's kind of like a a standoff or a stale so function to this as well well so yeah the vitruvian triad like that that was the the the famous uh roman architect who who's the only one that actually had a book that was passed on to us um it's um And that's what Leonardo's drawing of the Vitruvian man refers to as Vitruvius. He was that author. So the Vitruvian triad is those three principles that he keeps going back to, which is utility, durability, firmitas, and then beauty. So those three are the core elements of sustainable, good architecture. And so, to me, that's what you see when you see a beautiful building.

If it has the two first ones, if it has utility and if it has real durability, almost always it's going to look very pleasing to the eye because just like in nature, right? I mean, everything in nature is also built to have that sustainability, durability. And so, you see the same shapes like an ark, for example. it's it's it's a beautiful shape but it's it's it's also extremely useful and fur and and you know what i mean like those things are very interconnected so i feel like sometimes conservatives don't really talk about that very much about the the technological side of things and um if you want a building that's durable it's not enough to just like slap a few solar panels on the roof right i mean it's it's gonna break down in 10 years like that you're gonna

to waste so much more material by, or you're able to save so much more costs if you have a strong foundation. And that means using stone and mortar and wood and things like that, usually. Yeah, the long run costs are significantly less than what you'd have to do if you're- Yeah, which makes sense. If you have a low time preference society where people save in Bitcoin, who's going to be selling Bitcoin to build a building? It's like, well, if you want to leave a legacy right it's like a way to to say i was here that's funny because as we're having this conversation i'm thinking of something i saw gg put on noster yesterday which is the goal isn't to live forever it's to build things that last forever

yeah yeah that's that's exciting to me yeah me as well i'm happy because it's sort of maybe not last minute but came together sort of serendipitously yeah yeah very very serendipitously yeah and kelly kelly and i have had multiple conversations on this show about bitcoin urbanism and the way he thinks about it and being a builder himself and understanding the financial aspect of it i think it's going to be a really cool um conversation night here at the commons yeah so we'll we'll have kelly we'll have austin who's uh who's uh rapidly being orange pilled he's he's been reading the bitcoin standard and some other things and uh i mean i'm i'm the the lead i'm definitely not specialize in Bitcoin urbanism, but but I'm

very interested in it. And then we recently there's a German gentleman who's been talking about Bitcoin urbanism as well. He forget his name now. I want to say Udi, but it doesn't sound right. Anyway, he's going to be there too. So like, whoever is listening and is thinking about showing up, it's going to be like, I don't know, it's going to be a very early gathering where maybe i think this is going to turn into a big movement um so uh i would say definitely show up i want to see who's going to be there right it's like that's why i'm doing this i want to

see who shows up and who we can have conversations with well i will be there awesome i will be here sweet there is here in this building yeah we actually might do a podcast after right maybe friday yeah yeah we need to uh we need to make that happen yeah because it's one of my favorite subject so i'm not an expert by any means just uh a respecter of durable buildings and good aesthetics i desperately think need to be brought back to the world um yeah maybe we can like from humor to and then we need to find something that rhymes and that's talking about urbanism i love the word humor what what humor built the boomers destroyed um i don't know we'll think of something we'll think of something speaking of thinking of

something you have anything on top of your mind you think we should wrap up with no i just i mean like i'm trying to think well i mean i think it's always a challenge in the bull market to kind of you know keep stay sane and so maybe now it's like okay we had this big signal that like okay peter brand said it too like this candle that we saw this last month is massive and it probably means that this thing is going to go really high and so i would say it's it's a good time to like sit together with your wife and like talk about some plans like you know do we have any plans like you know like talk about different price points and just discuss like yeah what do we want to do and it's totally valid to say we're not going to do anything we're going to just you know ride this

whole market you know we're going to keep it for the next five years our bitcoin and that's our plan and but uh but i think it's helpful to go through it you know just to talk it through and be sure you're on the same page um whatever it is that you want to do because because it's going to get crazier from here yeah my wife and i went to dinner last night and had one of those conversations like yeah i mean because now it's starting to feel real it's like oh it's different right from six months ago where you're like oh it's gonna go so high and it's not real but now it's like wow we actually doubled in a couple months i was not expecting the last two weeks to play out the way they did yep um i mean i was expecting the etfs to bring a lot of flow

and there to be some price movement but i wasn't expecting it to be that much this quickly i gotta say it feels good to be right it really does and i mean to me also because it's almost like i think and i speak for a lot of bitcoiners like we just invest so much of our life and our energy in this and we're in this building right it's bitcoin not yeah it's not even nine to five it's like 24 7 uh bitcoining so yeah it just feels very validating i would say to be like oh man like and and in some way i think it's also like it's fine and not hurry you know the world is gonna i mean not to be complacent and we want to stay humble but in many ways the world is going to come to us and so if we just kind of like focus on like okay what is important to me and what i want to

what do i want to really excel at i think the world will find you if you do that in a good way um because there's there's so many aspects to the bitcoin diamond right facets there is well i'm excited for this journey we're about to embark on the next two years um it's always a pleasure yeah sitting now totally now that we're in austin we got to do this more than once every seven months we'll do another one hopefully in a few weeks on bitcoin urbanism um come down in the comments if you're in austin during south by southwest it's wednesday the 13th correct wednesday the 13th i think it's starting at around 6 p.m uh if you follow bitcoin commons uh on twitter you'll see more announcements it's now uh listed as like a meetup

event so it's uh i think there is limited admission but it is free yes so go check out the page join us we'll see you guys peace love