TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #541: Why Europe Wants Trump Gone with Tom Luongo

Episode Date: September 30, 2024

Marty sits down with Tom Luongo to the implications of a second attempt on Trump's life. Tom on Twitter: https://x.com/TFL1728 0:00 - Intro 1:50 - Storms 6:15 - 2nd assassination attempt and Iran story 9:20 - Europe and Britain want war 14:29 - Parallels to WW1 19:36 - Blinken, Israel and Ukraine 26:09 - Q4 will mark change 27:41 - River & Unchained 28:57 - Trump's probably all in 32:51 - Biden 38:03 - Gradually, Then Suddenly & Zaprite 39:41 - Kamala and fake polls 45:29 - What things look like after a Trump victory 51:29 - Optics fumbles 54:30 - Choke Point 2.0 1:05:43 - State banks and SOFR 1:13:02 - Bitcoin and BRICS gold 1:16:23 - Acceleration signals desperation 1:21:43 - Implications of the rate cut 1:30:48 - Architects of Choke Point 2.0 1:32:32 - Ending notes Shoutout to our sponsors: River https://river.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Gradually, Then Suddenly https://thesaifhouse.com/gradually Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

The first assassination attempt, and you made a pretty explicit claim that there was going to be more. And after the second assassination attempt, I hit you up. I was like, all right, we have to talk about this. This is a narrative that they're setting up here because they want to kill Trump, but they want to blame somebody else for it. And then, of course, they get the twofer of them being able to say, well, Iran killed Trump, so we have to go to war with Iran. To listen to Jamie Dimon speak, he's like, we need to let Trump come back to power and the hell with Ukraine. Everything that happened between World Wars I and II, relative to currencies and debt and everything else, were all designed to get. The desperation here is all on the part of the people who have the most to lose by Trump returning to power.

And that would be Europe in the bridge. And as always, it's always the same people over and over again. They need a war to cover the fact that they're defaulting. So with all of this and the coup story and this, that, and everything else, if you string all those pieces together, did Joe Biden make a deal with Trump? This rip of TFTC was brought to you by River. It's the best place to buy Bitcoin. Go to river.com slash TFTC and enjoy this episode.

you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free when you talk about a fed just gone nuts all all the central banks going nuts so it's all acting like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean That's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. I can't wait until the day that we do this in person because we don't have to worry about these technical difficulties.

Yeah, that would be fun. So one of these days, if you're ever in Florida or I get up in your area of the planet, we will. And it'll be fun. Do you make it to Texas often? Texas? God, no. Last time I was in Texas was for the Ron Paul conference when i did the the speech out there um and then before that it was like to go to on a cruise like

15 years before so i mean i drove through texas actually once since then so i just know i don't i never leave the house marty they don't let me out of the house like i'm not fit for human consumption come on i'm sorry first time i came to texas was three months before i moved here it's a bunkered up in the northeast most of my life you're saying before we had technical difficulties drinking tonight 7 p.m 7 10 now central time 8 10 east coast you got a storm headed your way hurricane season still actually this is yeah this is late i think in the season i think this the hurricane season technically goes until november my my partner dexter white knows this stuff far better than i do because like he lives in a far worse um far higher risk zone

in Florida than I do. I actually live in like the one part of Florida that never gets directly hit. So it's really kind of awesome. We get prepped for the hurricane. We do the thing. We lose power because of where we live, right? Because we're the first ones to lose power and the last ones to get it back because we're at the end of the grid, right? The grid literally stops at my house. And so if there's any surge whatsoever, my neighborhood will lose power. even if it's just a you know just a surge that blows the breaker on the substation at the head of the you know but then it takes four or five days for somebody to come out and check the breaker because we're the lowest population density in the area so we're the ones that get service last

it's just the way it always works out so low man on the totem pole happens i got stuck in new york city during uh sandy that was fun visiting my my now wife at the time girlfriend from chicago first time at all first time i went to visit her too and i got stuck in her apartment for four extra days yeah well you know i hope you made the best of it it turned out well i'm married two children now uh okay well i guess i guess you know like adversity brings people together it's a good thing if you have because you have to be stuck in new york without power god like that sounds like hell to me right having done having lived adjacent to new york city my you know when i was growing up like the idea of being without power

in new york city for four days or it's just uh just anathema well we were i mean lord of the flies figuring out what happens when the world goes to shit we were on the upper east side so we were or she was at the time so we were the uh the apartment that everybody was flocking to to charge their phones you know wow yeah no i i and that's what i'm that's what i'm thinking like it's part of the reason why i don't live anywhere where i mean again i live in the middle of kind of nowhere kind of not too far from anywhere right i'm only a couple like five minutes away from like the grocery store but the way i the way it works out because i'm just over the county line like the i'm in the weird services dead zone right and um it just happens to be that you know

once you leave the town that i live north of there's nothing there for another 25 miles right it's like it's florida um there's cities and there's a couple of feeder towns and then there's nothing and then there's the next city and then and that's just the way it is um and especially north florida is dotted that way so um you know it has its advantages and disadvantages the advantages well and if you ride out power for four days it's not gonna be over to the flies you're not gonna have to worry about you know people randomly wanting to steal your shit and on the other hand um the the wind blows and the power goes out for four days yeah sounds a lot like texas actually yeah speaking of hurricanes i mean that's a the reason i brought you on is

leading because i hit you up because i don't know if you recall but in july when we recorded it was right after the first assassination attempt and you made a pretty explicit claim that there was going to be more and after the second assassination attempt i hit you up i was like all right we have to talk about this there's a hurricane brewing if you will right right uh allow me to to analogize here uh sure to the election it's it's all very weird now because the second assassination attempt obviously on the golf course guy seems like a kook seems like the government was very well aware of them what's going on in your mind i i always defaulted that these people were straight out essential casting and you know and i i can't get away from that i'm not and i'm not saying that i

know that for for certain this guy looks like a true believer that they probably radicalized and all the rest of it that's fine but you know there's there's too much smoke here and the fact that the um the justice department is blocking the state of florida from doing an investigation into this is a telltale sign that there's something to hide i mean why would they why Why would they – if this guy was just a random crazy, well, then just let it go to discovery and let this guy go to jail and let the state do their job. No, the feds want to step in and take the investigation over

and whitewash it and throw it under the rug. There's clearly smoke here. And I thought it was a cool thing on DeSantis' part, Governor DeSantis' part to force that issue into the open. That's what he's supposed to do. um so and that's his dog whistle of saying look this is a state issue and this is a state crime you know i'm sorry it's just it just is he's attempted murder and you know that's our job you predicted this many people predicted this leading up to the election things are gonna get

extremely chaotic more chaotic by the day they have today apparently there was a third assassination attempt uh iran is has him in the crosshairs and then you have all these things going on in parallel israel creeping into lebanon right zolinski coming to pennsylvania nobly campaigning for kamala harris and i'm at the point where i'm completely confused because i'm like what what is going on here because the iran thing doesn't make like what do they have to gain here they they don't have anything to gain so this is a pure kind of psyop thing like i'm sorry i just don't buy it like when mark levin is out there screaming iran's trying to killed trouble like oh please like mr neocon himself is out there screaming for war on what

a shock um no this is a narrative that they're setting up here um because they want to kill trump but they want to blame somebody else for it and then of course they get the twofer of them being able to say iran killed trump so we have to go to war with iran blah blah blah like they're desperate the desperation here is all on the part of the people who um have the most to lose by these by trump returning to power um and that would be europe in the bridge and as always it's always the same people over and over again they need a war to cover the fact that they're defaulting. They want to default.

They need to default. They're going to default. There's nothing they can do to stop it. Even with Powell cutting interest rates by 50 basis points the other day, the markets have sold off in a way that they shouldn't have with that kind of result.

And if we're having connection issues, we have a hurricane coming through and I'm on Starlink. So yeah, I can see myself like my feed is terrible. so i can only imagine what you guys are seeing um and i you know i apologize but there's nothing to do about it um you know i'll just call up the god and tell them to hold the hurricane off for an hour and then we can go on with the go on with the world right so um but that's you know that's just that's a cover story okay you've got you know von der leyen and starmer putting out photo ops

um at on the sidelines of the u.n they're they're they're desperate to try and force the united states into this these conflicts and the pentagon has clearly made it that they're not interested in fighting a war with either russia and barely are even willing to fight to show up and fight for the israelis here so there's something else going on the state department wants this the ukrainians and the State Department, the Blinkens and the Newlands and the Kegans and all those people, the Vindmans, they all want this. The British need this because they've guaranteed all this debt and they've made guarantees to everybody about how they were going to carve up Ukraine after they destroyed Russia and then forced the Russians to pay reparations. And everybody

you know attendant to that group that fomented all this uh we're going to get paid so that's the black rocks and everybody else i mean and by the way jp morgan is involved in that as well and yet to listen to jb diamond speak he's like we need to let trump come back to power and the hell with ukraine so like you know what's going on there right yeah and hasn't been posturing within the state department and blink and get put on the sidelines as well i read that last week yeah well what happened i think was yeah there's a lot i mean there's a lot to unpack because and i haven't i mean i'll be honest with you marty like part of me is like it's all going to be fake and gay until the election so i'm just waiting for the election

to be overdone with but you know last week the two things that happened and when i get to that point sometimes i i realize that all i have to do is wait for the like the two really discordant pieces of information to happen and then everything else doesn't matter everything else is kind of downstream of those two events. And the first event was when Secretary of State Lloyd Austin, or Secretary of Defense, sorry, Lloyd Austin, met with Zelensky and Mannheim in Germany and told them flat out, you're not getting any more missiles, and you're not getting our permission and our support, logistical support, to strike targets deep in Russia. We're not doing this. And then the next day, Blinken and David Lammy, the UK Foreign Secretary, are in Kiev

telling Zelensky, oh, no, you have our permission to do all these terrible things. And then right after that, they blow up a massive ammo dump in Russia. And the Brits then almost pretty much take credit for the whole thing. And like, there you go. Everything else is downstream of this. And in the context of the stuff that I've – the content that I've put out with my friend Alex Cranor, both in podcasts we've done together and then he was on my podcast and the stuff that he's put on the sub stack and if anybody hasn't read that work or listened to those podcasts i absolutely urge

you to do so not for me but for alex because alex is fucking killing it uh and he pretty much figured out that ukraine is in default on the original tranches of debt that were issued through the IMF to them, which the British guaranteed. This is the TLDRs that the British guaranteed a whole bunch of debt through the IMF. And now Ukraine is in default. And that they were given a two-year grace period, which ended on August 1st. And in the lead up to August 1st, Zelensky goes and addresses parliament. He addresses the cabinet, the British cabinet, which a foreign leader hasn't addressed the british cabinet directly in like 60 years so this is existential um to the british at this point so they need somebody to come in here and try and

make this war happen and it's analogous to what they did in world war one in the lead up to world war one let me give me just two minutes to explain this and i think it'll it'll it'll all make kind of sense here. In World War I, the British borrowed a ton of money from the Americans in order to fight the Germans. The French did the same thing. So the reason why Woodrow Wilson, I got that right for the first time. I always get him and Hoover mixed up. But Woodrow Wilson was so gung-ho into getting us involved in World War I was because we had a whole lot of debt that would have gone bad, right, in the United States, in the American banking system, American investor classes, if Britain and France couldn't close, seal the deal.

And so, Versailles is as much a punishment system in order to ensure that the British paid the Americans back. And then there's some stuff about the Dawes bonds after the German hyperinflation and everything else. But everything that happened between World Wars I and II, relative to currencies and debt and everything else, were all designed to extract the wealth out of Germany to pay reparations, particularly in perpetuity, to bring them back to the United States. So the British put themselves in a vulnerable position, and Hoover, Wilson, I cannot get these two straight. I always do this. It's so funny, because they're both terrible.

And Wilson goes, it needs to go into World War I, aside from the fact that he was effectively a British agent anyway. He was brought to power in order to bind the United States and Britain together in an alliance, which previously they were our greatest enemy for 140 years. So this was the big twist. We get the Federal Reserve. We get direct collection of senators. We get World War I. All that stuff happened during the 19-teens that fundamentally changed America completely. And one could argue that that would be the third American Revolution.

The first one we won. The second one was the war between the states. And the third one was, you know, like December 1913, when we got the 16th Amendment, the 17th Amendment, and the Federal Reserve Act. So, you put all that together, and the same situation is playing itself out now. The Bank of England is in a serious threat of default, effectively, bankruptcy. um and because of ukraine war debt and some other things like and then there's the the the guilt crisis of 2022 that alex tied into all this which is also fascinatingly brilliant work on his part but you realize that they need this they need the united states to come in and bail them out again

militarily in order to bail them out monetarily and so that's where this stands and the now is that we have a Pentagon that is uninterested in doing this. And this is even with guys like Austin who are not what I would call the greatest of American patriots or anything. I don't see Lloyd Austin as any great figure here. But when you look around, you see the shape the Navy is actually in And not just the thing about the carrier group, you know, losing its oil, its refueling ship, then having to like, you know, scramble to try and get everything refueled. That's just one part of it.

Like there's been a lot, this is a regular, this is a big subplot, which is that the Navy is unprepared to fight a real war. And so why are the British our greatest allies trying to get us involved in two major wars, one a land war in Asia and the other one basically a naval support war in the Middle East? If we're not capable of fighting either of these things, it's got to be because they want to destroy us. This is the classic moment of like destroy yourselves in an orgy of violence and whatever capital is in the United States, they're ready to pull the plug on us, liquidate us and move all the capital back to the insouciant wise and internal European Union, which is of course the point here. Or back to the city of London and then let them fight it out as to who's going to run the world later on. And I still believe that city of London is trying to fight Brussels on this. And Brussels, of course, is winning, by the way. So, you know, I don't know.

That's what I see. It's a very – and again, I could be wrong about all this, but I don't know. The thing between Austin and Blinken the very next day. And then there was the – I don't know if you saw this thing with the video with Larry Wilkerson and Judge Napolitano. And Wilkerson's not the only one who's put this story out there, which is that the Pentagon went to the White House and told Joe Biden there will not be a war for Israel in the Middle East. We will not fight this war. We're not going to fight in Ukraine. We're not doing any of this.

and you're going to stand down and that if you there was the article i think on zero hedges was there a coup in america with was there a military coup in america yeah and that it's true but you know it's certainly something for us to consider and that's funny you mentioned so it's funny you mentioned that because right before you hopped on i saw a tweet from an hour ago that the state department announced that they're not going to be sending intel to israel and lebanon um which would be a de-escalating move and then yeah it's surprising actually and that would mean that maybe that blinken has been properly reprimanded or brought to heel or whatever i don't know because he's been like he's been literally running around running the country like as far as i'm concerned

he's been like you know he's been running running the show for a while now since uh certainly since biden was sidelined well it's funny you brought up the restructuring of ukraine's sovereign debt because we actually had a guy who runs a credit fund on the show a couple weeks ago and he brought that up when they were doing the restructuring um towards the end of august beginning of september said their yield was trading at like 18 and i asked the question somewhat naively like wouldn't they want the war to stop if you're buying if you're restructuring this debt and buying this these bonds when you want the war to stop so you have like economic growth you're building from zero and you can actually build an economy that would pay that

back right and the answer is his answer was he didn't have like i think yeah that would make sense but like who knows what's going to actually happen right it's a what should happen is not what is happening and what is happening is that that the it's not about ukraine like they know they need they need russia's there's a couple of things they want ukraine's physical assets they want the oil and gas under the sea of azoff um and the eastern waxy trillions of dollars trillions of dollars they want the coal the lithium all the rest of it right the steel like they want all that stuff um 10 trillion dollars they say they think of you know of assets in that area of ukraine alone and the eu wants that um to happen as well because the eu wants to bring ukraine in

but they can't bring ukraine in with just the farmland because then the european farmers would be would be uncompetitive you watch the uh the the prank phone call between with bovin and alexis And Radoslaw Sikorski, the former Polish foreign minister, who's, by the way, a complete and utter British asset, period. Like, period, paragraph, end of story. The guy was educated in the UK. He speaks with a freaking British – he speaks Polish, but he speaks with a British accent, for Christ's sake. Like, you listen to him, but he's like, oh, my God, you are such a British asset. He's the guy who tweeted, thank you, USA, for blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline.

So he got caught in one of these prank phone calls with Vova and Alexis and gave the whole thing away. You know, said, look, you guys are not going to become part of the EU until we can figure out a way to bring you in such that the European farmers won't be pissed off with you because you will out-compete all of our farmers. So, by extension, if you can bring Ukraine in and, you know, create a European oil and gas sector, for example, and if you can move the money in there, then we can have a, you know, we can balance this out, right? That was one. The other thing he said, which was very, very interesting, is that you're not going to see Polish troops in Ukraine unless there's a ceasefire.

And then we can be brought in, then they can be brought in as peacekeeping troops. Which of course is, you know, that's the standard plan. Hey, let's call a truce and then, you know, gear up for round two of the war. Putin, of course, understands this and is not going to give them anything. As a matter of fact, what he's doing now is he's now finally letting his military like really make some serious gains in the Donbass. like it's very clear now he's going for he's taking uh very specific strategically important targets for the first time since practically since um uh bakhmut so uh it's there's no there's no um no coincidence here that they're making moves on they're making serious moves on chasse of yar and volda voldahar i think that's the way you pronounce that that one city and a couple others. And this is what, this is, you know, they're attacking the Donbass front from six different directions while the Ukrainians have pushed all their best troops into the Kursk

incursion. And these people still think that all we have to do is embarrass Putin enough and the hardliners will overthrow him. And now I'm not going to disagree with that at a fundamental level. There is a portion of that that's true. The question then you have to ask yourself is, is Putin that precariously placed at the top of the Kremlin today? I don't think so. So while I, you know, and I'm saying that knowing full well that the person who's been promulgating this idea is Martin Armstrong, who, you know, has serious, like on the ground intelligence in in that part of the world so i i i can't you know i can't discount that strategy completely right i can't discount it completely so um but it just doesn't doesn't ring true to me

that putin would be that with that uh vulnerable to this kind of thing but that's also why you've seen the escalations to the point of hitting russian ammo dumps and really trying to embarrass Putin at the same time as we're about. I think that Q4 is a very important moment. I think the next week is going to be very important because it's the beginning of Q4 and it's where everybody's going to start reassessing their investment strategies going into the fall. At the end of every quarter, there's never really much movement per se in the important markets because the 2 and 20 carried interest guys want to book their profits for the quarter and the banks are dressing their balance sheets and the central banks are doing their thing. And everybody's

trying to get through to the end of the quarter. And then once Q4 starts, then that's why the first Monday in October is always the potential blow-up phase because that's when everybody wakes up and goes, okay, now let's get real for 2025. What are we going to do? We're getting set up because Q4 trades differently than Q3 does, which trades differently than Q2 and Q1. And you have to kind of assess markets in that way. And I think that's part of what's going on here. that and of course you know american elections are in november of every every other year so there's the proximity to american you know political shake-up along with everything else and potential for policy changes and whatnot so um yeah like there's a lot going on here

and it's all it's all kind of coming together around the same time period yeah no we definitely I mean, in the venture world, we definitely see that, particularly with the larger institutions, pensions, endowments. It's like, all right, Q4, we're going to figure out our 2025 allocation strategy and then come back to us at the beginning of the year. This episode was presented by River. River is the best, most secure place to buy Bitcoin in the United States. Go to river.com slash TFTC.

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that are securing over 90,000 Bitcoin with 12,000 keys on their platform. Their platform leverages Bitcoin's native multi-sig properties. Their cornerstone product is their Volt product, a two or three multi-sig Volt, which allows you to hold two of three keys in a multi-sig quorum. That gives you full control over your Bitcoin. They also have an IRA product, a lending desk, and they're rolling out a bunch of other products, including an inheritance protocol and sound advisory. So go to unchained.com, set up a call with their concierge onboarding team today tell them that tftc sent you and use the promo code tftc at checkout unchained.com no it's like bringing this back to like the assassination attempts and

that's the other weird thing like pulling iran into this obviously in parallel israel the pager bombs thing was insane insane precedent in my mind to do that type of distributed remote attack their video of the Ayatollah making like a mockery video of Palm Beach saying that we have you on our crosshairs

that's the thing like if that is like not only a diversion but they're trying to blame it on Iran but like Trump seems to be embracing it do you think Trump is aware of these plays and he's sort of playing along with it for gotcha or do you think he's somewhat blissfully unaware of no i think he knows exactly what's going on and uh i just don't

think he cares at this point he's like well if they're going to take a shot at me they're i mean they already shot him once right so once you get once you make your peace with i i would imagine i mean i've never been in a situation that's been that sincere like i've never been shot right but you know once you've once you've committed yourself to a particular course of action right you're pot committed in poker speak and you go yeah all right i've you know accepted the risk of this and you know i i can the closest thing i can come to in my professional life is that moment when the fbi showed up in my door and asked wanted to ask me about my relationship with strategic culture and i had to make a make a decision about what it is i'm gonna how i'm gonna you know go

forward here? Am I going to go forward with, you know, and go, you know, going to confront evil and, you know, never give into evil and go ever thou forth more boldly against it? And, you know, quoting Mises, or am I going to shrink and, you know, go do something else with my life? And I chose the former and, you know, you get, once you hit that moment, like, you know, okay. like it was funny the this afternoon uh nor bin laden um was tweeting back to somebody she either was on his show or something like that she's like uh lovely to have talked with you you're now part of my gulag club along with richard poe and myself and a couple other people and i just replied to her i'm holding out for guantanamo war nor i'm like i'm like that's that's

right if they're gonna take me and send me somewhere send me to guantanamo like that's you know i'm holding out for the for the for the best of the bunch i'm not you know i'll accept no substitute put me in the tropics if you're gonna put me something yeah exactly you know whatever if you're in the if i'm gonna get if they're gonna waterboard me at least you know do it where you know just like do the thing like you know like don't be pussies about it and i mean so i you know i i don't know i just i'm just kind of vamping here when i say something like that i I don't, you know, but it is something that you think about. And so I can see Trump just going, look, I'm committed to this.

You know, I know what these people want to do, and I know what they're doing to me, and I don't care. And that's that. And I'm still going to be Donald Trump. And okay. I mean, what else has he got to do? I mean, he's 78 years old. This is now his legacy.

Like, this is his legacy. Not the buildings, not the business. not that he made the made the point of this you know he made a turn at some point in the past like trump don't like trump think he's the right person don't think he's the right person over it don't want to see the second season of the trump show i don't care whatever certain point you have to look he made a decision on this and this is his legacy and the interesting part about it on other side of it is his counterpart joe biden who everybody's now forgotten about completely completely memory old nobody right right but let's talk about the discordant moment when

joe biden grabs a mega hat off of a kid and puts it on his head and then carries it on the as he goes up the stairs to the plane he didn't like no one like came in and took that away from him him and said, oh, you can't have that, Joe. He's like, no, no, no, this is mine. They took Joe Biden's $300 million war chest. They're fucking with the sentencing of Hunter Biden, and they're using it to keep Joe under control because he can't pardon Hunter until after Hunter's been sentenced. So they moved the sentencing to after the election. They'll keep stringing him along and Joe's like you stole my money and the Pentagon

has now basically told him look we're done with Ukraine I don't care the British may want to get us involved in the war but we're not fighting this war on their behalf it's over Joe so if you believe so with all of this and the coup story and this that and everything else if you string all those

pieces together did Joe Biden make a deal with Trump to stay out of jail to this that to to get all this stuff done that the democrats won't give won't give him because they at this point i'm having a hard time even believing that anybody can even credibly put together a plan or a narrative that kamala harris is competitive in this election oh not no well that's what i wanted to get to part of the or the poll but before we get to that okay right play like pulling on that thread that you're just pulling on and

extending it and if i'm going to go with that sure theory like jill biden sitting at the head of the table and and running the first whatever it was committee meeting in over a year i believe it's just like an overt like we're going to make a mockery of this whole situation and make it obvious to the people that right right right right right yeah it's a good way to read that that's a good well that jill biden is running a cabinet we lose him but i just it's just like i'm i was talking and then it said thank you i'm like what like um so but i didn't do anything um okay i'm sorry was i about to say something rude like i don't know i know so i normally i of course i do say something rude that's like my shtick um but no the jill biden

the jill biden running the cabinet meeting was hilarious when you're from you just i think the way you just described it was the right one which is that the whole biden crime family think of the biden as one of the mafia crime families that run america and joe has his ego and he has his legacy that he wants and blah blah blah blah and this is how he was going to get paid and then they put aside and stole his money and now they're holding his quote-unquote legacy over his head and ukraine was to be his legacy to continue into the future i hope i'm not i'm not gone you're good uh okay um that was supposed to be his legacy and for his family and that they were going to be able to you know you know pull their their vague off the world

for the next two generations or whatever that's the whole whole shtick of being in congress was for 60 years was that and this is you know this was the the gold watch and the whole thing and they took it all away from him now a guy like joe biden it's not like he's like we we want to make fun of him now because he's been decompensating and he's sporifying as a mushroom in the white house and all this other stuff joe biden is a fucking prick dude he always has been and you know he's he's a nasty piece of work and he's angry and he still has three or four hours worth lucidity a day and he knows exactly what's been done to him so i have no problem believing that at that moment you know in this in this moment if he's looking at the polling and they're like

sitting around looking at it going she didn't have a hoot in hell of fucking winning if i want to get out of this with anything intact i want to get out of it i want to get out of this with my ass and my children's asses somewhat intact and get some of the money that was promised to me i gotta go to the other crime boss or the incoming crime boss and that would be donald trump and that makes sense to me it seems far-fetched it seems weird i'm not saying it happened but it makes sense hence the whole mega hat thing and you know and putting all that together so you know, go with it. I don't know. Plausible. Yeah, I think it's plausible. Definitely plausible. It's at least fun. We just talk about it. We don't always have to like be right about this

shit, but we should be entertaining about it. Let's entertain that idea and then see if it becomes true. Quick break here, freaks. This rip is brought to you by Gradually Then Suddenly, a framework for understanding Bitcoin as money by Parker Lewis. I wrote the foreword to the book. I'm honored to have done so because it's the best zero to one primer. If you're looking for logical explanation of why Bitcoin obsoletes all other money. Buy one for yourself and maybe a few for your friends. Go to the safe house.com slash gradually. That's the safe house.com safe spelled S A I F the safe house.com slash gradually use the promo code TFTC for $5 off at checkout. Buy it now freaks. The price of Bitcoin is going up. You need to understand it. This is the best zero

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we can also connect our bank accounts our stripe accounts or square accounts to accept fiat as well the time is now freaks the fiat system is fragile invest in the infrastructure that de-risks the future invest in yourself bitcoin payments with zap right go to zap right.com slash tftc to get 40 off their annual subscription zap right.com slash tftc 40 off and going to like kamala like that's another big question i want to ask you if the polls are i mean we knew they've been fake in the past particularly in the 2016 election um the polls leading up to the election and that result proved that the polling was way off and this seems even more far like in 2016 wasn't even far-fetched it was a bit surprising that trump won because people were still riding mate silver

whatever the company he i forget what it was something 456 538 538 538 and his polling was gospel and trump inevitably won unless you were on 4chan that was extremely surprising to you and it doesn't seem like it seems completely off kilter the polling yeah and it's here you see kamala going to campaign rallies and doing very few press conferences but when she does she uh she inevitably winds up putting her foot in her mouth or sounding completely idiot the whole thing with oprah and the celebrities i think that came off completely disingenuous and um terrible the debate even everybody was saying that she won the night of but um if you actually listen to it didn't watch it like it like she didn't have any substance

she hasn't this whole time right and the polls moved against her i just i watched a couple of good videos and watched it and some good uh uh read a couple good articles in the polling um and that she's pulling far behind in all the battleground states where even Hillary was in 2016 or where Biden was in 2020. And, you know, in every one of those, the battleground states, she's lost ground since the debate. Every one of them. Like four points, five points.

Like, I think Virginia's in play. I think that with some of the latest court rulings that will tighten up certain battleground states, I think, you know, it's going to be harder for them to cheat. And then remember, in the national polling, she has to be three to four points ahead of Donald Trump in national polling in order to have a prayer of winning. Democrats need at least three and a half to four points in the national average to win, to be winning, because they're behind in so many of the battleground states otherwise because they have such a massive advantage in places like New York and California and others.

And in effect, that's the margin of cheating. And so when I'm looking at the map at this point, I was doing a 270 to win the other day, Or yesterday, I think I was doing one of those, like filling it in. And I think Trump's going to take two of three in Wamepa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. He could possibly take Virginia. And if he takes Virginia, forget it.

If he takes Virginia, she doesn't have a path to victory. She'll just take everything else. She's not going to carry all those other battleground states. She's not going to carry Georgia. She's not going to carry Arizona. she's probably not going to carry Pennsylvania. She might, but they would have to do epic levels of cheating that will be easily uncovered this time.

So what I would say is I think they're preparing. This is what I think is more sinister than that. I think they're preparing for Trump to win, but for them, they're going to try and queer the election results in certain states to decertify or make sure that certain states can't be certified to ensure that those people can't go to the electoral college. But that doesn't even make any sense because then it goes to the House and Trump wins 38 to 12 because each state gets one vote. It's not a roll call vote in the House of Representatives. It's a state by state caucus vote.

and in that thing i think the democrats only win like 15 states maximum like the he wins 35 15 like the the there's mechanisms for this so many people don't forget the what the mechanisms actually are what the law actually is they're going to try and tell us what the law is that's going to come from people not within the united states it's going to come from the british and davos and all the other people who are going to queer the freaking you know they're going to push election mechanism nonsense at us to gaslight us about how you know this is going to be trump stealing the election like no that's not the way this works we have mechanisms for this it's in the constitution read the fucking thing and get over yourself

like so that that's what i think they're going to try and do they're not going to accept the results of the election they're going to try and decertify certain states or you know or poison the election results to the point where we can't get a we can't get a clear victory and uh tie it up in the courts and then you know and then i don't know i don't know what happens after that like we start a lot of nuclear weapons and then we clear martial law and we do put the election on the back burner like you think that's you don't think that's beyond these people like are you kidding me i mean it would be beautifully poetic if that's actually what happened considering what happened in 2020 yeah yeah i'm becoming more committed like how much

of the calculus that the strategist on the democratic side are running right now like she is so unlikable and so like uh it seems crazy to me that anybody can listen to what she says and think this is a viable candidate to be chairman and chief of the united states the united states exactly yeah it's um how about this one more like are they prepping to hand him a bag of shit from the financial economic side oh of course of course what they're doing that's that's part of what we're seeing right now with all these escalations they're trying to leave obama's left him with a lot of poison pills in 2016 he but they only had two months to prepare because they were expecting to win on election night this time i think they once he survived butler

pennsylvania then now they're like oh we've got seven we got six months how what are we going to do to destroy to to destroy his presidency this time because now he's wise to our game about running running roughshod around him in the administrative state we've got chevron has been been destroyed the dark as he destroyed um the the the star chamber courts of the of the alphabet agencies. Like those two rulings alone put us in a, you know, put us in a completely different world legally, right? So they can't, you know, run the same game that they ran the last time, which is, you know, remember, it's the cabinet secretary that actually runs the United States. Executive orders are not orders. They are requests by the president to the cabinet

secretary to implement these things if the cabinet secretary doesn't want to implement those things guess what doesn't get implemented now the president can fire the cabinet secretary and put somebody else in place and during trump's presidency first presidency he was not in a position i don't think he was in a position to really be able to do that one no one who wanted to work for him because the the guy the the whole thing was a shit show if he comes in this time with a plan with real people to just and a plan of staffing plan that makes sense and he's got people loyal to him and he's got other people um and very powerful people is what i'm getting at uh you know pulling in his direction and this is where i would again i would listen carefully to

jamie diamond saying you know we should really listen to these mega people they're not crazy they should be respected and all my really liberal friends in new york have got it all wrong you just said this the other day like the fucking jamie diamond like this is important folks like this this dude's not on board with another four years of fucking obama okay he's done and i go back to davos 2023 and davos 2024 with a guy he where he shows up two times in a In a row, he shows up with a bag of poo in his hand and, like, drops it in the middle of the room, lights it on fire, and then steps on it. Like, in Davos, told them all, hey, we're going to drill a lot more oil and expect 7% interest rates.

Like, fuck your climate change. Like, are you kidding me? Like, this is the head of the most powerful bank in the freaking world. and he's telling you he's not down with the great reset because what's the great reset it's the great banking reset it's the it's the great banking reset where the central banks take over the world and cut the commercial banks out out of the out of everything right and that ties into the stuff that you and i that we were talking about right before we hit record i was reading your article about Silicon Valley and Signature Bank and your discussion with Caitlin Long,

which now that you've done that one, I need to sit down and I got to call Caitlin up and have her back on my podcast again so we can do this again, about how the banks were solvent and yet Elizabeth Warren and company went after them because they are hostile to Bitcoin. They're hostile to digital assets that are not central bank digital currencies. um so like there's a picture here it's a it's it's a very clear picture and all you got to do is like embrace it and go oh that's what's happening so yeah no it's a very interesting moment in time like the this is a different world and i think if wall street is on board with a second uh season of the trump show which i think they are and i think powell set the table for

trump to come in you know in a in the best situation that he can under these circumstances um then you know we get past the turmoil of the election as long as we avoid you know, antagonizing Putin and or Iran to the point where we have a massive shooting war that everybody has to respond to, then we could get out of this period in history with just a bunch of border skirmishes and some nasty financial warfare, which would be the best outcome for humanity. It's not a good outcome in the short term. A lot of people are going to die. A lot of people are going to lose their their their their assets it's going to be liquidations and it's going to be terrible it's going to be but but the alternative is the complete and utter

burning down of the first world and then the quote-unquote build back better fuck you you can't you guys can't you guys can't even like guys can't even run a conference well and you think you're going to run the world like fuck you like it's so comical right that you can feel the The tide changing, too. I'm sure you saw, but the optics of Tim Waltz meeting with Alex Soros in a penthouse in New York, man of the people. Yeah, man of the people. Man of the people meeting, going to kiss the Soros ring

in Central Park penthouse. Did you see the video of him changing the air filter on his old pickup truck? Oh, my gosh. Like, are you kidding me? He didn't even change it. He just took it out and put it back in. I know.

Like, it's ridiculous. like like are you kidding me i did that shit when i was 17 with my dad there no one changes their air filter and by the way no one changes their no one and tim waltz does not own a 1970s freaking ford pickup truck like this this like um no and then in moreover he's not like he's not you know turning a wrench on it and you know playing grease monkey either like he's not doing that like oh my god well you they're they're completely out of touch when it comes to optics it's like whether it's that and then the momentum is shifting against him again javier malay naebo kaylee going to the un this week and just completely decimating that global socialism

globalist agenda right i'm not i'm by the way i'm still i'm still not um sold on malay um this whole him him sending all the all of argentina's gold back to the bank of england that not a good idea like dude that's not a good idea and so i i i but kaylee i i still have a i have a soft spot for um and you probably know follow him far closer than i do um but millay this seems again another one of those straight out of central casting he just seems too good to be true and i just came out of nowhere yeah i don't trust him and he's cartoonish like dude you don't have to be a cartoonish freaking austrian economist like you just don't like and so that to me screams like you know it's like the he's as cartoonish as the freaking neo-nazi guys surround that came out

during like the spencer like the richard spencer's guys and yeah and the trs group from you know if you go back to 2016 the mikey knock and all those fucking guys they were all fucking feds every guy you know like give me a break i guess i'm so over it it's like it's like i'm done like you know and like you you go watch the the patriot front guys and they're all feds wearing high and tight with high and tights wearing the same outfits with the same military watches you know and the walkie talkies that you can't but they can't even like they can't even hide the walkie talkies like dude come on we can see you you know like oh my god well like it feels it feels like they're losing again they're losing on optics and their message just isn't landing like climate change 15 minute

cities whatever maybe everybody's like all right i've had enough we're not going this direction but like bringing it back to the newsletter i wrote in the conversation i had with caitlin and jamie diamond's posturing like i could see like if we have an intercabal squabble within the u.s federal government regulatory agencies where you have warren and crew really trying to push this davis agenda cbdc's all that like this may be where they really dropped the ball and fucked up massively is with what happened what i wrote about what caitlin and i talked about which is by targeting banks that were servicing bitcoin companies particularly silvergate and signature essentially incited the bank runs that happened last year

and created that banking crisis in March of last year. Again, just pulling on a thread that you put out there and running with the idea that Jamie Dimon is sort of fading that part of the Intercabal squabble. He'd be like, you literally incited a banking crisis, even though he did benefit massively. J.P. Morgan absorbed one of the banks. Their market cap went up $15 billion.

mm-hmm but maybe that was just like a positive externality of a crisis that he believed could have uh could have had severe negative externalities um it was all because they were targeting these banks like we said silvergate that's what was that's why i had caitlin on because um elaine heatrick from silvergate the chief administrative officer published an affidavit as part of their bankruptcy filings and proceedings basically said we had our hand was forced we had the money to give back to our depositors if anybody came to our window and said hey we need our dollars back we had the dollars we were giving them back and essentially the fed whether it was jerome powell the federal reserve directly or one of their federal reserve bank branches said hey we're

going to need you to reduce your exposure to bitcoin and crypto related businesses to 15 of your book and at that point 100 of their book was bitcoin and crypto related businesses and they're like nobody knows the exact timeline they gave them but everybody's running with the assumption it was like you gotta do this in a month or two and they're like we can't do it so we'll just give everybody their money back right well it's interesting a panic right right and i created the panic and bubble and then you know and the history happens right no and i was just thinking about that and I was thinking about the conversations that I've had with Kay on because we've been trying to square you know the arguments that I've been making about what the feds are

trying to do with what's happened to her with custodian bank and it's been a real it's been a real conundrum and I've I've we've had multiple conversations on this and I you know and I have to and it's been hard for me to to make a make heads or tails of it what I can say is the following the no argument that the fed is not i think if the fed is in is is okay with bitcoin having a certain role it's not it's in having it they're okay with it having a certain role as long as they have you know their ring it's ring fenced in a particular area of the market that serves their interests right that i can or that i can make uh i can what sort of looking for that that i can see right um i can also see that there are plenty of big players on wall street

that want in on the crypto banking game as well and they want that business and they don't want that business in upstart banks they want it in banks they want that business so they would be happy to piggyback on Elizabeth Warren being, you know, doing her Davos thing and then them benefiting from it by absorbing the book of business, i.e. Silvergate Bank, and all the rest of it. And then if they have competing technologies to, you know, Tether or to some other stable coin. And then there's the other side of it, which I still think my angle on it has a role to play as well, which is that don't just look at the fact that those banks were solvent. I think that's fine. I had no problem believing that Silvergate and Signature were on

the up and up in that respect. But at the same time, we also know that FTX was a freaking money laundering scheme for evil Davos money to destroy our fucking political system. It's that argument that i've been making for a long time that the money goes out gets up at zero percent through the euro dollar markets and then comes right back into the united states to destroy us culturally and economically and legally and everything else with our money that they levered up and then you know and then they create a bunch of ponzi schemes to pay everybody to go run around in black block and burn down minneapolis like this is like reality folks this is what they've been doing And the fact that, and the timing on FTXs, I still go back to the timing on them taking out FTX was on election night, 2022, like literally the next morning.

Oh, the red wave didn't happen. Yeah, and we executed this Democrat bank, this Democrat, you know, money laundering operation, crypto operation the next morning. As far as I'm concerned, like that had to be the Federal Reserve, right? If you believe that, you know, and it still fits that like Powell and company and Wall Street are trying to be responding to the greater global macro picture that the world is moving back towards mercantilism. It's moving away from globalism to a regional currency block world. And when you have the world's reserve asset and trade settlement, dominant trade settlement currency and all of this, how are you going to do that and not cause massive dislocations? Well, you have to start the process of changing the flow of dollars around the world. The first thing you've got to do is start draining the offshore dollar markets, which is what we've been doing for three years.

At the same time, you have to then start cutting off all of these avenues of massive leverage within those systems. And so you go after the euro-dollar markets. It's easy. You raise interest rates to 5%, and all of a sudden, you know, they can't infinitely rehypothecate dollars through the shadow banking system. But part of the shadow banking system was created, you know, part of the shadow banking system today involves crypto. So that has to be executed as well. Okay. It's not that crypto is a bad thing.

It's that that version of crypto, that era of crypto had to be destroyed if their goal is to get control of U.S. monetary policy and make it work for the United States as opposed to the world. And so it's just, in a sense, these banks kind of got caught in the crossfire or kind of caught in a drive-by shooting between, you know, bigger players. And that may be the way, you know, that's the way I read it. And then, as I said to Caitlin, I'm like, you know, I'm hoping one day that you and the Fed can come to an arrangement when the time is, from their perspective, it is going to happen for them. but it's going to happen when the time is right for everybody to allow that to

happen. And that's the frustrating part for her. And, and that's just, I think that's just reality. She's trying to do it right. Of course. And I, you know, and I applaud her effort. I, you know, I, I want to see Caitlin succeed. I want to see Cassidy bank to ski. I want to see all these people like removed from, from power. But you know, then there's, there's reality and reality is sometimes, well, sometimes reality is a harsh mistress. So, yeah. no a couple things here was interesting after that affidavit was published i believe it's

thursday or friday of last week over the weekend uh headlines started popping up like oh we're gonna let uh we're gonna not have to force through the sab 121 bill and we're gonna maybe test things out with bny melon first we'll let them custody bitcoin um on behalf of their clients and so it was like bny it's a bank of new york melina oh you mean davos bank yeah yeah davos davos central on wall street yeah great so that headline came out and then um you have what's going on this week and that's like you know the other thing with custodia that's where i think the fed could be messing up um so custodia trying to get their master account they're corresponding with the federal reserve bank kansas city um for some reason maybe it's the closest in proximity

i think it is where they're domiciled in um wyoming and maybe what they have to do is interact with that bank but it is they wrote an amicus brief in july of this year and this is where the fact could really mess up because the amicus brief was written by a really good constitutional lawyer basically highlights that the federal reserve bank of kansas city is extrajudicially undermining state law, particularly the dual banking system where you have state chartered banks and the Federal Reserve System.

And constitutionally, you're supposed to have competition between those two. And if you're going to unilaterally deny a state chartered bank a master account, you have to have power from the executive branch. And since the Federal Reserve Bank branches, their boards and their presidents are appointed via the board which is owned by the um privately held commercial banks like they may

be like breaking constitutional law because they don't have a mandate to actually uh unilaterally arbitrarily decide that somebody a state charter bank can't can't get um a master account and so that like because that's what austrians gold bugs have been saying for years is like most people don't know the federal reserve's a private entity and this attack on custodia may be the lifting of the veil for the general public of their private yeah you're right and it's funny because caitlin and i discussed the beginnings of that when it had just come down the last time she was on the podcast she didn't have very much time to talk so we only were able to talk for about half an hour um because she had other things going on in her personal life and sad and i have to get

back to her and find out we have to need that part two of that conversation but that's exactly the point she made up made when she was on when she and i talked a couple months ago thank you for reminding me of that because i've got like so much stuff goes through my head on a daily basis i can never keep i can never remember it all um but that is a very important point and it's and that may wind up being custodians like big contribution to the world they may never get their master account but they may like finally put some controls on the federal reserve system which would be phenomenal and think you know then we talk about the um the the article that ellen brown just put out about um state the state banks coming back and that the state of florida

is now considering creating a state bank in order to uh uh combat debanking of individuals and companies that run afoul of DEI and ESG. And again, this is another, this is why having a guy like Ron DeSantis as your governor, who's a former judge advocate general and, you know, an excellent lawyer as your governor is a good thing, right? Because Ron is very sharp. And so Ron knows exactly what he's doing. He's also a very sharp politician. So I give him, he's a terrible campaigner, but he's excellent in every other way. He's a tremendous, tremendous friggin' administrator. He's done such

good work for the state of Florida. It's not funny. So, you know, sorry, conservative treehouse crowd, free republic crowd, but, you know, DeSantis is not a moron. Sorry. And by the way, he's on the Trump team. That's just the truth.

So, you know, the, when you put it all together, like, that's a big deal. Like, if And Florida goes through with a state bank. And there's like 17 other states that are doing this. We have the State Bank of North Dakota is very successful. So, you know, here we go.

Let's get down to it. And now, you know, what's interesting about this, Marty, when I first – this is now – it literally just pops into my head right now as we were talking about this, putting it all together. When I first theorized about what the potential for SOFR was, when I went back and thought about all this stuff back in 2021, and I was like having my great, you know, kind of Sherlock Holmes moment and all that just was all just kind of happening and all just kind of like laid out in front of me. like, oh, that could be cool. One of the subplots, one of the things that popped into my head was that SOFR could catalyze, was the right word for this, catalyze going back to the original conception of what the Federal Reserve was supposed to be, which was a reserve bank, 12 reserve banks, regional banks, with regional interest rates and regional liquidity and blah, blah, blah, blah, to help keep the banking system, you know, in effect, liquid, but regional

and competitive so that the Kansas City Fed sets a different rate from the San Francisco Fed, from the New York Fed, and then wherever you have, you know, you have competition for capital, based on regional interest rates. Well, I always said, and I even asked Daniel DiMartino Boutas when I had her on the podcast, I said, could SOFR lead to the re-regionalization of the Fed funds rate?

Meaning we just do away, it just replaces the Fed funds rate. And then everybody trades relative to, you know, a premium or discount to SOFR on a regional basis. She's like, well, yeah, but they'll never give up that power. I'm like, well, obviously,

they're not going to give it up willingly. Yeah, duh. But she's like, but yeah, that's possible. Like, you know. So now start interfacing that with this move towards state banks. Start thinking in terms of how the Fed might have fucked up badly in how they've handled custodia. And the fact that that may be what Powell is actually trying to accomplish here

is Martin Armstrong has made the point many, many times. He's like, and I don't, as an Austrian, as a free money guy, free and a free banking guy i don't i don't agree with this tag okay but martin has made the argument and that we can go back to the original conception of the federal reserve that will and i will i will agree with him there that that would be far preferable to what we have today right that a one-size-fits-all interest rate for the country is dumb it's advantageous certain geographic parts of the united states at the expense of others right so it it's it's allowing for example if there's high demand for capital and the capital in california and you have a

monolithic fed funds rate that means that relative to the demand for capital um businesses in california are getting it cheap and mississippi for example is getting stymied like mississippi needs 3%. California needs 6%. We don't have that. We have 4.5%. And guess what? California is stimulated by a point and a half, and Mississippi is repressed by a point and a half. Well, it's no different than what's been going on in the European Union. Germany has, I thought about this, and Germany has used the ECB's target rate and the euro as a means by which to run an internal mercantilist campaign against its own member states. And this is how they've been draining capital towards, in the European Union,

how they've been draining capital towards the European Commission and towards Germany and then reinforcing their power and destroying the peripheral states like Greece and Portugal and everybody else. And now they've turned their eye, of course, to Italy. Well, that's kind of what we're dealing with here with the Fed fundraise on the exact same thing. So getting back to a regional quote for interest rates in the United States would set the Fed back towards its original conception, which is better than the institution that we have today. It wouldn't be perfect, but never let the perfect be the enemy of the good. I quote Murray Rothbard here.

And so I think all of these things are kind of in play. right and we're seeing the markets and then uh in the various states uh react to that now we're seeing you know market forces are having you know the states like want to start chartering their own banks yay this is a good thing this is a win right it's not perfect but it's the rights it's it's an it's an it's a re it's a return to federalism right and it's a first step towards you know real decentralization uh and so we've and so at the same so you have that happening within the u.s but what it's what are you seeing from davos and company they want a net they want to take the net these national systems and make them global we're going to have like one interest

rate policy for the entire fucking world under the auspice of the imf and or the bis and that's what they that's what they're going for that's what they're arguing for and so those people are monstrous and need to be stopped and you know i firmly think that that's in accordance with the uh with the needs and the wants and desires of the people on wall street and and uh at a certain at a certain point the fed's gonna have to get up some power whether they like it or not and i i've brought this up many times like thinking of the path of least resistance you give yourself up to that monster or concede that maybe you're over your skis and many different regards and what is like you said what is don't let perfect be the enemy of good what's

better given the choices like americans have proven throughout a couple centuries almost three centuries that we're pretty willing and able to figure shit out on ourselves decentralized decentralization works federalism works it got us to this point um at least up to up until the early 1900s and it was pretty good right up until then. Right. It was a very optimistic

like a white pill too. It's like maybe they're both systems in some regards one to a larger extent than the other are collapsing in on themselves and I guess that's

the the two different tactics that Davos versus the the western federalist system are taking davos is going to double down on incompetency and trying to force everybody uh square a square um square peg into a round hole and here it's like all right we ran this for for long enough let's just like let's let the market figure it out

right well and and again this is again where bitcoin absolutely has a role play and so does gold and we may need both of them in different corners of the market to do what needs to be done. The BRICS are going to use gold. They're not going to use Bitcoin. They're going to use gold. And they understand gold. They're going to use gold. I don't think they're hostile to Bitcoin. But for right now, gold is going to be the gig. And for us, we have gold. We're going to end up having to deploy our gold. I'm dead serious. We're going to deploy our gold at some point um if we survive this and if we don't then the united states will break up and uh davos will win a round in that you know they'll they'll target the the breakup of the u.s in such a way

that the bond market because that's always the target here the u.s bond market is the target folks it's like let's not kid ourselves um and uh you know some of it some of us some of our capital and some of our ingenuity and our capital. We'll escape their rule for now, but they'll think that, well, we're bigger now than we were before, so that we'll just squash those people later. And it's the way they think of Russia, it's the way they think of Iran, it's the way they think of China and all of this stuff. Well, the truth of the matter is that they're spending a lot of their seed corn right now just to maintain the position that they have. and they're very good at fronting inevitability and fronting that they're winning because they

because they know that if they show weakness at all the whole thing collapses like a house of cards very quickly because you know that's just the nature of because i mean eventually we'll have a bank run on davos's confidence in its ability to project power collapses i think it's happening yeah i know what's happening yeah yeah i mean you compound covid which many people thought was a speed run to try to force things and take the foot off the pedal for a bit but now like the immigration crisis particularly it's like way like people they're eating the cats they're eating dogs they're eating people's pets i think the memes are great many people want to believe that is uh fake news but most competent americans that don't uh don't lie to themselves and believe

their lying eyes can see like no this seems to be happening you have like pete bootage coming out yesterday crime rates are down everybody's like that's bullshit like right like every every like every speed like they're accelerating at a pace that's very obvious it's not like the frog boiling a water it's like the water's already boiling and they're trying to throwing us all in it at once right well this is uh you guys are speed running this which signals that they're desperate and scared to an extent oh they're very scared i i haven't seen that this level of scared for quite a long time um if ever in my life actually and um that's you bring up pete budaj or my extra white it makes it all butt giggler um i can't like that

guy he's a butt giggler as far as i'm concerned now and uh i love i love dexter he just makes me laugh dude um and uh and he came out and says what a shock we passed the inflation reduction act and inflation was reduced like oh fuck off like you know like he's getting ratioed like to hell and back again on that for that one like oh my god you are so unbelievably unqualified for the job you currently hold it's not even funny um yeah they're not even good propagandists no it's really they're really bad at it like we're better propagandists for their stuff than they are like we can write sarcastic memes about their shit that is better than the shit they put out the shit they put out is just so friggin bad we just laugh at it like it reminds me like it's

funny it reminds me when i was a kid and we were being told about the soviet union and uh i think i remember if we had a russian foreign exchange student in my high school or not it was something like this but i remember hearing stories about this like you know at the end you know there's all these propaganda signs all over you know moscow and st petersburg and whatnot about you know all this stuff and we just we just looked up at the stuff we just laughed we didn't believe any of it it was all nonsense and i said you know it's like they you know we pretend to work and they pretend to pay us like you know um that's the way things are and that's i think we're we've reached that level of of of uh of crazy to be honest with you so they've they're i i've said

this before too i just remind you like these are like the grandchildren of wealth right the grandfather makes the wealth the son maintains the wealth and the grandchild spends it all on hookers and blow and that's the people who are running the show right now and their front thing because they've been taught how to present themselves in public as you know wise and insouciant and within and above it all but they're not did you see christina lagarde on the daily show for fuck's sake i saw some tweets about it but don't well aside from the fact that it was nauseating i can only watch five minutes of it um it was clearly a moment of them of that's panic you put christine lagarde on the daily show with mr dnc mouthpiece himself john fucking

stewart that's them trying to sell her as a better as a more personable you know oligarch than jerome powell same week they did the same thing with trudeau on stephen colbert right they did didn't they yeah yeah yeah same thing so when you see good point so when you see a cluster of those things that's them trying to sell the whole group trudeau's going to lose lagarde is going to be torn to pieces by the market and by the federal reserve she's being torn apart by the market like dude they cut 50 basis points right on wednesday and we're still getting the bear steep in their trade in the U.S. bond market. Okay?

I was hoping they would only go $25 because I wanted to see this very trade happen and I needed Powell. I thought we needed to have Powell disappoint the markets in order to get that. No, no. He gave the market everything that they said

they wanted and it still is selling off. That's got Lagarde and Yellen well let's just say yeah yeah they're they're they don't know what to do they don't have any they don't have any other options at this point but to keep buying treasuries into a into a bear market and they're going to get fucking crushed yeah well let's dive into this a little further

because you remember so you glossed over earlier but you mentioned earlier like powell with the 50-bit rate cut setting trump up for success if and when he gets elected because that i i don't I was in New York last week when Trump made this pit stop at the dive bar in the West Village to buy some burgers and Diet Cokes with Bitcoin. And that was the Fed cut day. That was the first question the press pin asked him. And his response was one of two ways. Palsy, they're making a political move to help out the incumbent administration or the economy is very bad. Right.

And I think it's the latter. And I'll be honest with you, I think Don's interpretation, I think that that's the false dichotomy. Because cutting in September doesn't help the incumbent at all. If anything, history of the stock market, for example, tells you, and Daniel DiMartino Booth has been banging her shoe on the table at cruise ship about this, that cutting rates is the signal that there's a top happening in equities, that equities roll over six to eight weeks later when everybody realizes,

no, the economy is shit and these valuations are insane. Now, we have the competing problem of, what does that mean for the rest of the world? And what if we have a sovereign debt crisis involved in Europe? Well, we're still going to get capital flowing into the United States,

so we could have a very weird moment where the Dow goes up, continues to go up, grind higher. But, you know, well, it just could be a flight to equities. It could just be a flight to quality as we have an impending sovereign debt crisis in the short term. But I still think that it's setting up for the possibility of a liquidity crisis somewhere within six to eight weeks, which would be the election night. You know, those last couple of days before the election where they, you know, all of a sudden, even the boomers like retirement funds like blow up. That's not going to be good for Kamala Harris.

That's going to that's going to be for Trump. But it's also the 50 basis point cut does help set up, you know, us coming out the other side of that liquidity crisis if it's not centered in our markets, which I don't think it will be. I think it's going to be centered overseas. If I'm wrong about that, I'm wrong about that. But I just don't – how I'm watching credit spreads and currency rates and whatnot, I was on with Tracy Shukart and Lynn Alden this morning on Twitter spaces. I hadn't met either of them before, so it was great to finally get a chance

to interact with both of them. We had a really good time, actually. And Lynn and I were coming to the same conclusions about the world from completely different perspectives. then i was trying to you know explain what i thought was happening and and and credit spreads and like no there's something happening here like the uk gilt market is is in trouble the lagarde is sitting on the german tenure in a way that is kind of scary i've not i've seen her intervene in the german tenure before but you know she's now sitting on it at 2.2 percent

as opposed to 2.6 percent like how did that change my 40 basis points was it because the now the yen is 144 and not 162 i mean what's going on here like so powell's cutting rates and you know at some point everybody's gonna finally just wake up and go like dude are you kidding me like volkswagen is gonna cut 30 000 jobs in germany the biggest employer in germany this is after basf already moved out yeah and you know and they're all gonna move their they're all gonna move their the united states unless you can get kamala harris to come in and destroy the the quote unquote the tax haven statuses of the united states which is what davos has been trying to do through the biden administration all for the last four fucking years and it's you know or and

i mean and obama before that and blah blah blah whereas trump is like oh we're gonna open this stuff up we're gonna bring the capital here we're gonna build stuff and we're gonna have chips and it'll be great and he's not wrong i i know exactly what he's gonna do but what they have to do at the same time and powell's been very clear about this and i think powell's rebukes of the government of the biden administration by a fed chair coming out and saying look we can only do so much the rest of it is now at the fiscal side of things and if the you know the congress has to get the fiscal house in order we can only do so much over here you can't ask us to do any more that's not our job so like that's unprecedented to have a fed chairman say that and then he didn't say it

once he said it like a dozen times like every time he's asked about this stuff and he gets you know some dumb you know 30 something from you know the new york times asking him some idiotic questions like you know okay that's not my that i i can't do anything about this it's like i can only do what i can do it's still up it's up the congress to deal with the with the the servicing of the debt and so and if there's if there's a weakness in a lot of of commentary from very good people people i respect tremendously um but their blind spot is this idea that because things have always been this way they will always be that way in the future that's a very that's that's a kind of malthusian style argument right um and they don't they don't and they don't fully apply the law of

diminishing marginal of the law of diminishing marginal utility where at some point uh that's the the the return on that at that that activity is no longer necessary is no longer you know worth the worth pursuing right it's the juice isn't worth the squeeze at that point so we're going to start we're going to you know take the capital or do something else we're going to take the to shelve that behavior and do something else well in this case it's going to be deficit spending like at some point you know you've run out of balance sheet room the fed can't expand their balance sheet anymore blah blah blah blah like we can't do this the debt gdp ratio is too much we're servicing the debt servicing costs are too high what are we going to do about it well how

about we cut spending well we can't do that well yeah you can you got a trillion are you spending a trillion dollars overseas every year are you hey how about we get rid of that that you got Yet Trump on the campaign trail say we're going to we're going to get the Department of Education shut down. Sure. I mean, there's many. Well, I mean, but I'm even I mean, I'm even like what I'm saying. And the way I and what I'm what I'm actually arguing for how people should communicate this is to say, look, yeah, that's great. I think the Department of Education is dumb. I think there's like a whole bunch of domestic spending that we do that's dumb and wasteful. but the counter arguments you cutting spending is then gdp would contract and then unemployment arise and then this and then this and then this and this fine you're right we won't cut that first

we're going to cut all the overseas spending we're going to take away to samantha power's budget over usa id so that she can't format color wars color revolutions anymore we're going to get we're going to close some of the fucking bases overseas we're going to bring that money home we're not going to spend it out there that won't that's money we spend out there that has not a dimes that doesn't really flow through the American economy. So maybe 10% of it is the SG&A on that is 7%. So we've spent a trillion dollars overseas. We spend $70 billion in domestic spending to manage that trillion dollars worth of spending. SG&A costs is 7%. That seems decent. Okay. Well, how about we cut that out and then we can deal with the $70 billion worth of SG&A

spending into form of unemployment and retraining and everything else and finding these people jobs domestically if we're not spending a trillion dollars overseas there's going to be a trillion dollars worth of investment within the u.s for them to those people to go get repurposed and find jobs in the private sector in the real world like this is we don't even have to hurt domestic gdp gross gdp will drop but domestic economic activity and real and real economic activity won't change at all that's my argument like if you and i don't see how you can even argue with that point like let's just start there you're coming off as a very strong american first guy right now you gotta be careful okay i'm sorry like i i believe that the constitution as flawed

as it is is still the best foundational fucking document in the world oh by the way and i happen to think that we have the best freaking corporate law in the world oh by the way and the best legal system when it actually is functions the way it's written oh by the way so fuck all these other people yeah i want to see america go i want to see that structure handed to the rest of the world like it was supposed to and we didn't do that yeah no and it's uh i brought up look you can bring up the chart again but it's funny the connecting dots like having this conversation with you two days after talking with caitlin connecting dots here top left executive branch architects at chokepoint 2.0 barat ram and murty like he was one of the key figureheads

that targeted the banks and now he's kamala's lead economic advisor is going on cnbc and pushing for unrealized tax unrealized gains taxes and that economic policy that would destroy the tax haven that you described a bit earlier it would destroy everything about capital handling within the united states that chart is uh that that that slide is outstanding genzler is another one oh i remember all the bitcoiners like oh the bad bitcoiners like frankly saying oh gary gensler is going to be a chairman of the sec it's going to be great he's a pro bitcoin guy he taught a bitcoin class at m19 like he hates bitcoin this guy exudes everything i i'm like are you kidding me he hates bitcoin this is going to be this is going to be another it's going to be four years worth of

him you know um sand in the gears monkey wrenching you know proper uh a crypto asset regulation and he's finally getting excoriated for it on capitol hill it's a good thing it is a good thing gary gensler can go pound sand he can go pound a lot of something other than sand to be honest as far as i'm concerned but you know it's starting to get late marty i'm going to start getting really salty soon so we may we might want to wrap this up so i don't say things that are really bad i don't mind really bad things but i agree i've got a i'm gonna jump here soon too but no thank you for coming back on short notice because uh i wanted to follow up with the assassination attempts but i think the economic stuff particularly is interesting heading into this all the chess pieces being moved on the

board and i think it's another reason why i love the conversations with you because it emboldens my confidence because every once in a while when you're not having conversations like this and the new cycle hits you you're like maybe maybe they are like making progress and it's like no it's all projection like they're trying to project strength that has no foundation and well it has i mean they have a lot of power still and then and they're going to use every ounce of it and i hope that you know this is a final point on the way out the door like i hope that um i hope the hell i'm wrong that they're not blackmailing us with a nuclear war like i'm that serious like like we could wake up tomorrow and be in a different world every day we all wake up saying

and thinking it's going to be you know we all the way i ended this morning is that we we just had a an hour-long discussion about one sigma events like that things are going to move one standard deviation away from where they currently are and you know gradually this single stuff will move this way and that way i'm like let's hope we don't wake up in the three or four sigma world tomorrow because that's that is that's a one sigma probability at this point we have a one sigma probability of a four to six of a three to six sigma a catastrophic event which throws all of this out the window and you know smoke them if you got them folks like you know i don't know what to tell you at this point like i i i don't have enough so i don't have enough you know

sardines and didn't freeze right meat like for that scenario you know yeah and as i said we're best many times throughout our many conversations like that's why being able to do this is important and i do think compared to any other point in history the means of communication that exists today is extremely powerful and being utilized pretty well by the people fighting a good fight on what i deem to be the the right side of this battle that we have the spiritual battle if you Yeah, it is a spiritual battle. It's an ideological one. And then it becomes a pragmatic one very, very quickly. And that's the other thing we have to remind ourselves of. And we have to keep that spiritual and ideological desire and our philosophical cores,

keep them, hold on to them, cherish them, but realize that you also have to interact with a practical world where everybody has competing. There's so many competing incentives that you have to figure out ways of of just be careful about the way i'm going to put it is this no one is any one thing at any one time right people in pivotal positions can be both can be at simultaneously or to quote tom stopper consecutively and concurrently hero victim and villain right the three sides of all character um you know and depending on how you view how you when you look at a figure for example like jerome powell or janet yellen or whomever you can see them you you have to see them from all sides and i hate to even like do that for yellen because i

think she's the villain but you know look at a guy like powell who's a very pivotal figure i think in history look at a guy like trump look at you know look at some of these these these people who are confounding and they're um in who in they're the fulcrum on which all of this will turn and they're going to have competing and they're going to have competing roles that they're going to be want to be cast in and we have to be willing to view them from different positions from those three perspectives even though we know in the like the grand scheme of things and our philosophical hearts, they're one role. They're a villain or they're the hero or they're the victim.

But a guy like Powell is all three all the time. You can't be Fed chair and not be all of those things. So that's the way I would, that's what I would argue people for, to do a little bit more of. And if we do that, I think all of our commentary gets better. It's what I try to do as best I can here and there. So, and I fail, you know, all the time, but I do my best to, to, to do that. And if I can do that and it,

it usually yields the best insights. It's like, well, let's just reframe that person and think of it from their perspective. Now what? Oh, that's interesting. You know what I mean? Yeah. No, I think you do an incredible job of it. And it certainly opened up my mind and changed my perspective on many things. And I appreciate these conversations more than, you know, and I appreciate you doing this late on a Wednesday night. It was a fun one. I like the night riffs with you, Tom.

Cool. Well, maybe we'll just do the evening thing again. That's fine with me. I'm okay with that. So I adore these too, Marty. I have a great time doing them, and it's always good to catch up. So let's do it again in six, eight weeks, and we'll see where we are. Yeah.

Stay safe in the storm there. I will. And until next time, thank you. You're welcome. Thank you. Peace and love, freaks. Take care. Thank you.