TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #544: Dissecting The Chaos Leading Up To The Election With Ed Dowd

Episode Date: October 9, 2024

Marty sits down with Ed Dowd to discuss FEMA looting the treasury, predictions for the election, and the forth turning. Ed on Twitter: https://x.com/DowdEdward 0:00 - Intro 1:17 - Approaching an infle...ction point 7:08 - Exploiting climate disasters 15:40 - Unchained 16:31 - Election probabilities & Trump victory scenario 27:21 - CBDCs and Fed printing 32:10 - Zaprite 33:10 - Real estate and VCs 39:13 - Elite Theory & Trump’s capabilities upon victory 43:06 - Covid jab impact 50:55 - Fourth turning 1:01:00 - Solutions and hope 1:05:42 - Economic illiteracy in policy 1:08:47 - Truth to power 1:11:34 - Deflation prediction Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 What are the chances of a Category 5 hurricane forming in the Gulf of Mexico, moving east to Tampa? And because of where hurricanes usually form, it was a 0.1% chance per year. You have to say to yourself, well, the odds, I don't know for sure, but the odds suggest that weather manipulation may have been employed. You've just got to be a critical thinker and say, I don't know for sure, but this is just weird. These two things would happen 30 days out from one of the most important elections of our lifetime. Wouldn't it be interesting if, like, three weeks out from the election, they decide to declare a national climate emergency because of these two current events that we're seeing with these hurricanes?
Starting point is 00:00:36 They already floated the issue. It's already been talked about. So this is a conspiracy theory. And if they do... You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free. When you talk about a Fed just gone nuts. the central bank's going nuts so it's all acting like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world
Starting point is 00:01:07 of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean that's part of the bull case for bitcoin if you're not paying attention you probably should be probably should be yeah ed it's been over a year since we caught up like i was saying before we hit record i'm very happy that we're catching up now uh where we 30 days out until election less than 30 days and and that seems like we have parallel things running in track almost like the great awakening is happening at the same time that the incumbent dystopian power structure structure is trying to hold on to that power again it seems like a lot is being revealed uh revealed or admitted in fluoride in the water the government coming out and overtly admitting that it's dumbing down the population and lowering
Starting point is 00:01:53 children's iqs um emissions about covid and all the insanity it seems like the democratic party is also having some internal turmoil and you have biden pitted against kamala it's insane right now what are your thoughts as all this is going down well it's good to be here and it's gotten crazier as time's gone on um we still live in this like you said we live in two parallel realities those those who are awakening to truths, and those who are still asleep in a normalcy bias that is just, at this point, I don't even know how you can't see what's going on,
Starting point is 00:02:32 especially with your own health. Some of these people keep getting sick. Their loved ones around them are getting turbo cancers, heart attacks, musculoskeletal issues, neurological issues, and they just think it's all normal. It's insane. it really is but on the same on the other side of the token it does seem like there's this awakening i mean like maha i mean last time we spoke um rfk was still in the running a lot of
Starting point is 00:03:04 things have happened obviously since last july one of which being that rfk has come out and joined the trump ticket and support throwing his support behind trump he got tulsi gabbard throwing her support as well and i mean obviously with maha one of the big things is like make america healthy again it's like this conversation that has been forced to the background for for many years which is the fact that our food system and medical pharmaceutical systems are making us uh woefully sick seems to be like a popular thing of cali means and others going on joe rogan you have hearings on capitol hill of individuals holding up cereal saying this is poisoning our children um so that and all this is to say it feels like this election is a crazy inflection
Starting point is 00:03:49 point where we can go one way or the other triple quadruple down on incompetence or maybe see the light at the end of the tunnel and start sprinting towards the light no i i agree look it's good news what's going on there's a lot of people are waking up faster than we've ever seen however if you look at the regime it wants to stay in power and they literally came out this week and have said, we must shut down free speech to save democracy. So we're at a critical inflection point where all the tricks are going to be pulled out of the bag to, you know, try to steal the election, stop the election, whatever it is. And I expect, you know, we got hurricanes hitting, we got Israel bombing cities, that's kind of gone under the radar, you know,
Starting point is 00:04:35 Syria just today, Lebanon. They're talking about going and blowing up nuclear sites in Iran. That's all under the radar. We got the Federal Reserve and Janet Yellen trying to hold up the stock market into the election. The manipulation and fraud is blatant. The last payroll numbers that came out on Friday were a joke. 785,000 government jobs, the highest on record. It just gave people jobs so they could paint a number.
Starting point is 00:05:02 we're at the end game and it's good news and bad news the good news is more people are waking up so there's a lot of hope, the bad news is the dying regime will pull out all the stops in my humble opinion Digging into the financial side of things, what's interesting
Starting point is 00:05:18 too is the yield curve re-inverted yesterday what is this, a couple weeks after or the Fed, a few weeks after the Fed officially lowered rates and it seemed like that was a move to sort of quell the markets prop up equity markets but the bond market's really telling a different story which is we're not buying your we think inflation is going to continue to go
Starting point is 00:05:40 and the economy is not as well as you're portraying it to be and yeah all you need to know is this we got volatility in foreign exchange rates that we haven't seen in decades you know it started off this august with the bank of japan uh blowing up by raising interest rates 25 basis points so they have a choice they save their currency from oblivion or help the global financial markets and it's getting harder and harder for them to do that we're seeing asian uh indexes like the chinese the chinese a50 and the hang sang move you know seven eight percent in a day down because i guess the stimulus wasn't what people wanted so we're seeing volatility now we have volatility in the bond markets the yield curve re-inverted uh i suspect there's just going
Starting point is 00:06:30 to be a lot of volatility no one really knows what's going on and and volatility eventually eventually feeds into the equity stock markets and that'll cause a deleveraging effect at some point again that it's a national security issue the stock market and when i say that it's because you need tax returns are correlated to stock uh returns so much the government takes in so now that we're running you know eight to ten percent deficits uh you need to have 20 annualized equity returns or you can't you can't fund it so the stock market is literally a national security risk for for for the regime well that like the deficit spending and it's two sides of the same coin right like the the stock market is national security and it's a prop up this insanely bloated
Starting point is 00:07:19 federal government that's the other thing that's been astonishing particularly the last two weeks with the uh basically unveiling of what fema has been directing funds to towards for the last year and i think fema dhs specifically makes it obvious that we're in the looting the treasury stage like you have one week we're giving billions of dollars to lebanon uh israel uh ukraine and the people of north carolina tennessee georgia and florida are asking for a pittance of that and i'm sorry we can't do that fema's out of money and then you dig into what fema's been giving money to and it's like literally to import illegal immigrants and place them in cities throughout the country it's it feels like i mean i
Starting point is 00:08:07 feel comfortable saying it feels like we're under attack as american people like the people in charge are literally attacking the sanctity of the ideals and the structure that this country was built on yeah you know i i have experience with fema from the maui fires last year uh they came to the island and they wanted to take control of everything so when we uh tried to get supplies early days to uh the people in need uh there was a lot of uh there were roadblocks on the poly highway but we figured out a way to get through you know we knew people who knew people and and the local cops finally relented because they knew this was nonsense fema wasn't on the ground yet but they directed you know the local authorities to you know block the roads so that they could
Starting point is 00:08:56 I guess what their scam is, is they need to control everything so that they can then charge people for the government, invoice it, maybe take their own, you know, invoice it, but never really give the money and then take it for themselves. Because my friend, you know, we got supplies to Lahaina and my friend's moving truck. He owns a moving company. We did that ourselves before FEMA showed up. Then FEMA shows up, and about a month and a half, two months later, they contact him and say, hey, would you volunteer two or three trucks and some laborers for us? And he called me and he said, Ed, FEMA wants me to volunteer trucks for free. I said, no, no, no, no. They have a $30 billion budget. They should pay you money for that. and then you know we suspected what they do is they get free voluntary uh resources and then
Starting point is 00:09:47 they charge the government and who knows what happens to that money they invoice it it's a joke yeah i mean whether it's fema or the money going off to these countries for these wars it's it's again it seems like we are squarely in the looting the treasury phase of empire decline and where where's all this money going i mean you had pictures of ukrainian officials laying on beds with millions of dollars in usd well look uh elon said something about uh there was a tweet somebody said hey how come we're sending all this money overseas and not directing it internally and and and elon said good point and then i uh underneath that tweet he said i said it's easy it's easier for kickbacks it's easier to money launder and get paid through corrupt government
Starting point is 00:10:38 you give money to a corrupt government with a wink wink and then they wander it to you so it's it's a lot easier to send money overseas to get your cut of the pie that's that's why so much money goes overseas it's it's a grift it's been a grip for decades yeah it flows back in via these ngos or whatever yeah it may be well going with lahaina what what is the aftermath there i mean obviously it was a big headline in the news for a few weeks last year massive fires and not much has been said what's what's going on in that area the reports of rich people coming in just picking off the land true or is the community building back up after after the town fell to the ground last year they're trying to they're trying to hold on to their properties
Starting point is 00:11:25 it's difficult there are some people getting picked off because they can't take it anymore A lot of people moved off the island, and it's the slow roll of disaster capitalism, just kind of sweat people out until they relent and sell their properties. But so far, it seems like people are holding the line, as far as I can tell. It's going to come out that it was abject local government failure. There was a hurricane 500 miles off the coast of Maui, but that didn't cause the winds that day the winds were a quote-unquote freak weather event uh that were 70 80 mile an hour winds that took down power lines uh but it just there were so
Starting point is 00:12:09 many things that happened that are very suspicious the fire hydrants didn't work uh there were water rights issues being discussed uh the cops blocked roads they shouldn't have i don't blame the local cops they were just taking orders and it just seemed like everything that could go wrong went wrong and they didn't sound the uh the um tsunami alert system which is also if you read in the in the literature of that alert system it's used for fires and all sorts of other things they've made the determination not to sound the alarm the official in charge of that resigned due to quote-unquote health reasons so there's a lot of suspicious weird things that went on that can't be explained i i chalk it up right now to mostly government incompetence
Starting point is 00:12:55 you know i couldn't find any serious evidence of weather manipulation although i know that exists but you know maybe i'm wrong yeah it's either weather manipulation or space lasers that's what people were going with uh with is there any validity to the blovers um holding up well i will i will say this i don't know but uh my partner uh of finance technologies carlos alegria is a phd physicists and 2030 i think 25 years ago right out of his phd program he worked for darpa and uh was working on directed energy weapons so the technology is real so you know whether it was employed i don't know but it exists and it's not conspiracy theory yeah yeah a lot of that right now i mean there's i mean the the the hurricanes and what happened with lean
Starting point is 00:13:51 not saying yeah let's talk about the hurricane for a second like i don't know if it's weather manipulation but let's let's i'm just a math guy i asked rock some questions what are the chances of a category 5 hurricane forming in the gulf of mexico moving east to tampa and because of where hurricanes usually form and because of the uh the nature of of of the meteorology it was a 0.1 chance per year i said on any given year what's the chance it's lower than 0.1 so if it ends up being a category five hurricane hopefully it gets downgraded to category three but let's say it's a five and uh and we just had a strange hurricane that seemed to intensify over land in in north carolina devastating that area you have to say to yourself well the odds i don't know for sure
Starting point is 00:14:44 but the odds suggest that weather manipulation may have been employed you just got to be a critical thinker and say i don't know for sure but this is just weird these two things would happen 30 days out from one of the most important elections of our lifetime the other thing i i put out a tweet yesterday uh in april the bind administration floated the idea of declaring a national nationwide climate emergency that would then give them extreme powers. They floated the idea. And it wouldn't be interesting if like three weeks out from the election, they decided to declare a national climate emergency because of these two current events that we're seeing with these hurricanes. That would be a little too suspicious for me. And I said that. I said it wouldn't
Starting point is 00:15:27 surprise me if we declare a national climate emergency. They already floated the issue. It's already been talked about. So this is a conspiracy theory. And if they do, that'll be another prediction I got right, just because I know how these people think. What's up, Faris? This rip of TFTC was brought to you by our good friends at Unchained. Unchained is here building the Bitcoin bank of the future. It starts with their vault product, a two or three collaborative custody vault, which allows you to hold two keys. Unchained holds one. On top of this, they're building incredible products. They're trading products. You want to buy and sell Bitcoin. You can do it through their trading desk. If you buy Bitcoin directly
Starting point is 00:16:01 into cold storage. If you don't want to sell your Bitcoin, you can borrow against your Bitcoin with their lending desk. They have an IRA product, which they recently dropped the price down to 21 cents. So if you want to roll your IRA from traditional assets into Bitcoin, Unchained makes that extremely easy. You're able to hold your own keys. Again, it's the bank of the future. Go to Unchained.com. Use the code TFTC when you check out for any of their products. You'll get $50 off. Check out their concierge onboarding if you're looking to do it the right way. unchained.com use the code tftc i have a bet with the co-host of the other podcast that i host that the election will not happen i think there's like a 20 chance right now that the election doesn't
Starting point is 00:16:41 actually happen and whether it's climate emergency you mentioned the wars that are popping off in the middle east obviously escalation between russia and ukraine if nato starts bombing russia um things could escalate rather quickly and that's what it seems like like that has to be the last straw that they have you have a couple assassination attempts on trump uh and then it seems like the kamala harris campaign is completely unraveling in front of the public that 60 minutes interview was pretty piss poor and she was on the view this morning i saw you tweeting about it if you say that you watch the view you just stop there but it seems like they can't hold her back from the public anymore and the more she's subjected to public scrutiny the more it's becoming
Starting point is 00:17:31 glaringly obvious that she is not competent um to be president um yeah i wouldn't even feel competent with her like as an aj it was astonishing that she she reached the attorney general of california at some point in her life too well you know she's utterly incompetent to anybody with eyes to see it's you know if you don't have tds trumped range syndrome how you can vote for this woman i'll never understand and you are correct they have to trot her out because the internal numbers that we don't see in the swim states are really bad so they have to put her out there in the hopes that she might turn the tide they couldn't hide her any longer and it's an abject disaster i mean the views 60 minutes i mean on the view someone asked her hey would you change
Starting point is 00:18:18 anything that you've done over the last four years and she said she wouldn't well that you know there you go i have to ask any voter how you've been doing the last four years not good well kamala just said she wouldn't change anything okay that's interesting let me pull the lever for the orange-haired man that i don't like i mean that's the only rational decision anybody can make yeah as a numbers guy what what is your what are the probabilities you're putting on both pass and go down trump wins somewhat of a seamless transition uh do we begin to recover i guess scenario two would be trump wins unseamless transition things get a little crazy and then kamala wins not a seamless transition or kamala wins seamless transition like what are the probabilities of
Starting point is 00:19:06 those four well i think trump is gonna win the real the real numbers so he's gonna win the question is whether they steal it and can they sell the steel and if it's and if it's overwhelmingly large where they can't steal it then the next plan is you know uh chin up uh all sorts of civil war hatred issues and try to get people into the streets for violence so no matter what happens there's going to be nothing seamless about anything in my humble opinion i mean it's just there's just no way too much pent up emotional spirits on both sides a lot of a lot of anger and and fear and on both sides there's a lot of righteous anger on on uh you know the uh the right well i call it the right but let's just call it common sense and there's some people on
Starting point is 00:19:56 the right that are idiots and obviously the left which is you know devoid of common sense at this point and there are a lot of people on the left who are getting it getting the joke and coming over to our side so the left right paradigm is even breaking guys i call it common sense yeah I don't know maybe it's just the bubble that I'm in on Twitter and the groups I hang out with in Austin but even my extended family which is in
Starting point is 00:20:25 the Northeast I think people are waking up saying this is utterly insane there's no way that we can continue and then it's that's why like the hurricane particularly Helene I think has opened up a lot of eyes last week you have Asheville
Starting point is 00:20:40 which is one of the liberal outposts of North Carolina just being completely left to the wayside. You have to imagine there's a number of people in that situation who believed that the government would come and save me if something happened that are sitting there two weeks in and watching the utter incompetence and the lack of resources and money to flow in and actual help outside of good Samaritans that are, that have rushed in and they're saying, like, what the hell?
Starting point is 00:21:13 Like, is the government actually here to save me? Right. You have people trying to help being prevented by the government from helping. That's, that, that, that's, that's, that says it all. It's, and you know, I'm not, the people on the ground doing the FEMA stuff, they're just taking orders and they're minions, but they're, they're, their orders whatever they are end up hurting people they're not helping and that like you said has opened the eyes of many across the nation that one of the basic functions of government
Starting point is 00:21:46 is situations like this is you know disaster recovery and rescue if a government can't do this what in the hell do we have a government for this is a basic operation and they can't seem to get get it done right and it seems to be not only not done right there seems to be malice involved whether it's intentional or just stupid policies don't know don't care at this point it ends up looking like malice yeah then you have disgusting individuals like david axelrod saying that this is uh probably good for the the democrats because that part of western north carolina was was leaning heavily towards trump and they they won't be able to vote anymore um or likely won't make it to the polls due to the destruction which is um says something about where his priorities are and
Starting point is 00:22:37 i think a lot of people not me yeah a lot of people not everybody certainly but a lot of people are thinking that way that's that you know look the the lack of empathy and humanity and so many of our leaders has been apparent for decades and now they're just the masks are off and you know we had we had john kerry and hillary clinton come out and say we're going to get rid of the first amendment because you know we're losing control i mean it's all it's all narcissistic self-serving nonsense axelrod comes out so this is good for our team while people and bodies pile up all over the place and people are starving to death i mean that's all you need to know about these people they're they care only about themselves and their power they've lost their way they're not with us
Starting point is 00:23:21 in in any kind of spiritual sense they don't believe in god they believe they're they are the gods they do and let's uh white pill run down the scenario where trump wins whether it's seamless or we get out the other end and we have a new coalition in power again rfk tulsi it seems like this time around trump is posturing like he's uh going to be wiser in terms of putting certain individuals in his administration who he staffs around him um and he's got bold ambitions particularly from a tax perspective with high tariffs low income tax like what do you think will happen if a transition happens and the dust settles and we're moving forward with a second trump presidency well unfortunately he's going to inherit a recession whoever wins
Starting point is 00:24:19 going to get a recession because right now they're trying to paper it over but eventually nature will take its course so whether that recession turns into a big one or a systemic financial failure we don't know yet we'll see what happens what i do know is that the longer you manipulate markets the worse the hangover is and that's what we got you know we have three indicators uh that we're monitoring that are private that are have to do with the financial markets and they're all pinned at the statistical extremes to the point where when they mean revert uh it's pretty scary we're at extremes we haven't seen in decades so that so whatever's coming he's going to inherit okay let's put that aside for a second he gets an office he has makes better decisions about personnel
Starting point is 00:25:04 and he's got he's got rfk he's got other people telsey maybe elon musk the problem is this the the the the bureaucratic state the administrative state has for decades operated on the premise that politicians are the summer help and that their agendas run through different administrations which is kind of true so there's going to be this big battle between the administrative state and trump the administrative state owns the intelligence agencies so there'll be all sorts of scandals ginned up and investigations and just nonsense so it'll be kind of a repeat of what happened to Trump after he won. The good news is he's more aware this time,
Starting point is 00:25:43 and if he has the key people in the right positions and trusts the right people, he should do better than he did last time, but it's still going to be a battle. It's not going to be a panacea. Yeah. I mean, because especially with that tax policy, if he's going to hire tariffs and lower the income tax,
Starting point is 00:26:00 that necessitates a gutting of the administrative state if you want to avoid a highly inflationary scenario. That's what I wonder. Does he get what the Chinese would refer to as a mandate from heaven if he wins by a landslide? It's essentially like a prop vote for a gutting of this administrative state, a landslide win by Trump. Because I think, again, the Department of Homeland Security and FEMA alone,
Starting point is 00:26:29 just put the microscope on that one section of the administrative state, and it's obvious they're completely just wasting taxpayer money and this is at a time when inflation yes the inflation rate is lower but it's still building on a higher base people are hurting more than ever and everywhere american citizens turn it's just overt wasting of taxpayer dollars whether that's flying immigrants and creating a special app that allows you to illegally cross the border get access to money housing opportunities for jobs uh that's what i hope at least is that a landslide victory is received as somewhat of a mandate to go do all this because it's going to be completely necessary with that tax policy if he goes and implements it i agree and you know
Starting point is 00:27:18 look whatever happens um i think we're going to see a deflationary period which honestly would be a good thing we have millennials and people in their 20s 30s and 40s who are priced out of the housing market they're priced out of the stock market you know asset inflation has really helped the boomers and and the very rich and you know a deflation in asset prices while painful and may cause some bank failures and so you know some very rich rich people go bust long term it's a a boon for the middle class so you know a correction while jobs would be lost long term would be fantastic and you know that's that's the kind of reset we need the problem is they're going to try to usher in a reset with global central bank digital currency ubi and scare the
Starting point is 00:28:07 hell out of everyone do you think they'll be able to successfully do that i don't think because when it comes to cbdc i don't think they're smart enough to implement it i think it's too much I don't think it's going to fly. I think, you know, one thing I have a friend who's involved in the gold business right now, and they did an experiment. They went through Latin America traveling with dollars, local currencies, Bitcoin, gold, silver. And interestingly enough, cash is still king when you want to buy things. So if they try to take away cash, I think there'll be an outcry. Yeah, we've already seen it in the last, what is it, six, seven years? I think seven years going back to probably less than that. India, Lebanon, Nigeria, Israel came out and said they're going to remove
Starting point is 00:29:06 a 200 uh 200 shekel note from their their economy but every time this tries to be implemented where it's india lebanon nigeria to date we'll see whether or not israel does it's complete chaos and i think nigeria is the first country to try to implement a cbdc and it's just completely fallen flat on its face i think i think thailand tried one uh linked to a ubi it was a cbdc link to a ubi and i don't think that went well either apparently yeah which is uh obviously we're team bitcoin over here i will acknowledge that cash is king though wherever you go particularly in the emerging world um yeah that's what i was talking about in latin america cash is still king especially the us dollar you can do anything with the us dollar down south yeah and even in the
Starting point is 00:29:53 world of cryptocurrencies uh they prefer stable coins down there to bitcoin because they can't stomach the price volatility makes sense if you don't have money to save and you need to spend your money as quick as you get it you probably want it in a stable coin um but yeah that gets it'll get interesting like what do you think the fed needs to do like what do you what do you think this economic recession this economic instability that seems to be on horizon uh forces the fed and the treasury to do like how how big do you think the balance sheet gets well that's what we don't know so they just cut 50 basis points um and now the yield curve re-inverted so again you know people think inflation's uh coming hard and fast i actually think inflation
Starting point is 00:30:39 is slowing it's still like you said up a ton the rate of growth is slowing i think the yield curve will you know re-invert again in a month or two or whenever but the fed is probably likely going to continue rate cuts maybe they pause because of what the purchase did but and the and the manufactured employment number but uh the real economy is flowing you see it everywhere i mean here on maui just look again real estate's local but um uh pending pending sales are the lowest they've ever been uh and i'm hearing about things going on in florida and condo markets so you can feel you can feel the real economy is continuing to restrict especially right before the election no one is green lighting any big projects until you know who the president is so
Starting point is 00:31:27 we're going to have a hangover from this lack of investment and uh so i think the fed will end up probably cutting they might be obviously have to do qe again they might do yield curve controls it depends on how bad it gets and again and there's two ways this can go you know a la a 2000 top where the market stock market went down 50 percent over two years into 2002 or a great financial crisis with speed speed is what kills so if i'm the powers that be i want to manage this deflation but when you manipulate as much as you have you can't control uh price on the way down if you punt it up too high which is what they've done this rip was also brought to you by good friends at zap right if you're a bitcoiner and run a business or an independent contractor you should
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Starting point is 00:32:58 that de-risks the future. Invest in yourself. Bitcoin payments with ZapRite. Go to zaprite.com slash tftc to get 40 off their annual subscription zapwrite.com slash tftc 40 off i mean just anecdotally here in austin we were one of the cities that benefited most from the covid boom people escaping california new york other parts of the country to come here they've got i think nine cranes building high rises in the city i'm in the south part of the city and a bunch of construction that is ground to a halt they literally have the main road um up down where i'm at into the city they have like construction they've had construction um basically set up for two months and they haven't done there has been one construction worker they've cut it down to
Starting point is 00:33:47 one lane uh which is very frustrating because it's like a major artery into the the city and traffic has been horrendous but they literally have not had one construction worker doing anything but they've had this lane shut off for two months now and yeah we we track building permits and they've been uh going south since uh beginning of the year and that's usually a leading indicator that's that's a great leading indicator building permits yeah as a young millennial hasn't bought a house yet i'd actually welcome this i that that is some i was on uh one of your uh maybe you know our competitor friend natalie brunel when i said that i said look a crash is nothing to be scared of if you if you have money in a bank and you don't own anything
Starting point is 00:34:31 it's great i mean it's or bitcoin or whatever wherever your assets reside if prices come down 20 30 in homes and you haven't bought yet you know one person's pain is another person's game and millennials are not uh by and large earn hope uh as big of the homeowner community as the boomers So, you know, I think net-net, it's a good thing. You get people in the homes that are starting young families, and that's always good for the economy, all the spending and investment that comes out of owning a home. You know, it's better than BlackRock and Blackstone buying all these homes privately
Starting point is 00:35:13 and then renting them out. I mean, turning people into renters is no way to really jumpstart the economy. No. And do you think they can get caught off sides on this trade, on that massive trade they've been building up for the last, I guess, better part of a decade now? Oh, I think they will. Look, they're always too optimistic. Only really smart people get out at the top and they're still in it. They're still doing it. And, you know, they'll lose their shirts. But again, they've made so much money personally, you know, it doesn't matter. Their investor you're gonna remember private equity uh you got the partners that take uh it's it's
Starting point is 00:35:51 basically two and twenty two percent fees twenty percent um carry on on the returns annually so they've amassed for themselves personally millions of dollars and then when this goes south uh they're uh they'll lose some money but uh it's their investors who will lose all the pension funds that are in these private private equity firms will lose their shirts but these people will still have billions that they're sitting on top of it's one of the greatest business models ever you get a two percent fee which is huge i mean huge just to just to have the money sit there in your investments and then you get 20 of any profits you make and if you and it's been a bull market for private equity for 20 years since the great financial crisis so we've created these
Starting point is 00:36:35 billionaires who really just you know by by the nature of their seat have created massive dynastic wealth for themselves not because they've done anything particularly wonderful for the world other than uh financial wizardry yeah it's it's important to note too it's like two percent per year so if you raise like a hundred million dollar fund and it's a 10-year fund lifestyle i think you're gonna get 20 million dollars out of that as a manager that's that's the same thing in the venture capital community after uh after the 2000 but right before the 2000 bubble. VCs were killing it because of all the .com public offerings. That's when they monetize when they do a public offering. And so then there was a flood. Like always, after
Starting point is 00:37:22 the great returns in the VC community, the VC community asset size exploded after the good returns. And so what ended up happening is after the .com crash, these VCs, you raise billion dollar fund you got three guys three or four guys and you clip two percent a year and then you invest in it even if you don't have a home run off a billion dollars you begin two percent a year with three or four guys it's it's not a bad business even if you don't even make any money for your investors because you know you lock these people in for 10 years yeah to be clear i'm a vc myself but we're dedicated to actually making money for our investors our funds are are performing well right now and we like to think uh the area that we're focused on in bitcoin
Starting point is 00:38:04 is um is very underappreciated right now and uh it is fun we we don't like to refer to ourselves as vcs because of that connotation that we've just described there but it is there there has been a complete lack of fiduciary responsibility that has existed in like silicon valley vc world for a better part of the deck. I mean, if you look at vintages from 2021, 2022, they raise obscene amounts of money and they're just throwing it at these SaaS companies that probably aren't going to make too much money
Starting point is 00:38:37 at the end of the day, especially if the narrative behind AI plays out and people are able to replace these SaaS products internally. Well, there's two types of VCs. There's VCs that are real, but there's also, and I met these types when I lived in Boston, they're Harvard Business School graduates who are great salespeople and talk a good game
Starting point is 00:38:57 wouldn't know how to pick a good investment if they hit a major. But they raise money, and they're clipping big, fat coupons, and there's a lot of those funds lying around. There are. There are. Speaking of which, though, it's actually a good segue into interested to get your thoughts, and I'm not sure if you've heard the conversations around elite theory leading up to this election. um it seems like trump with vance on his ticket particularly elon behind him
Starting point is 00:39:28 and many others in silicon valley consider themselves little tech are seeing this election and the trump ticket particularly as a way to basically take over power and sort of push the uniparty military industrial pharma industrial complex to the wayside and have this new elite come in that that are more efficient and and positioning themselves as builders can actually get done are you buying into this at all or do you think it's meet the new boss same as the old boss well you know i put out a tweet uh right after i i think uh a while ago uh i think after the first assassination attempt right before where i said look um we have someone has to say it so i'll say it you know trump is being infiltrated by i think you know the other side because i think it was
Starting point is 00:40:23 after biden stepped down i i said you know they they're worried about uh the populism and the maga movement and to really implement your policies you have to co-opt the maga movement what better way to do it than through trump so i said i said i'm not saying it's happening i say you have to watch for it so if this is a new elite you know rah-rah team comes in we have to watch what they do know what they say judge people by their fruit so like right now i think their intentions are good but you know i'm not going to sit there and become team trump elon vance just for the heck of it if they start going sideways i'm going to call them out right away yeah yeah that's what i worry about is everybody's getting there i'm cautiously optimistic
Starting point is 00:41:06 um particularly i mean for our if if we get if kamala uh was earnest this morning on the view when she said, no, I want to change anything. Like for our industry, that would be terrible. If she gets in a continue operation choke point 2.0 and this is like singling out of the Bitcoin and broader digital asset industry, it's not great for us. I mean, we'll survive,
Starting point is 00:41:31 but it has been an uphill battle fighting incompetent regulators. And I would actually say malicious regulators and malicious administration, particularly targeting us. And that's why I'm cautiously optimistic Trump and others within his campaign have been posturing like they would like to embrace Bitcoin and make sure that America leads moving forward.
Starting point is 00:41:52 But I've been tricked again. It feels like I was always one of those, I'll just vote harder, like making fun of people who voted harder. But it's funny how this happens. Like you get lead up to the election, it does feel like systemically important to back one side over the other
Starting point is 00:42:08 and cautiously optimistic, but also preparing for a letdown if it materializes. What you have to watch is when change comes, there's lots of details and there's a tremendous amount of work that goes into writing any legislation. And this is where the uniparty can insert their influence, putting in clauses that no one understands, that no one reads. So unfortunately, we're going to have to watch everything that Trump,
Starting point is 00:42:37 if he wins, what he does like a hawk, just to make sure there's no hidden back doors. Yeah. I mean, that's what happened the first administration. He didn't realize he was putting bad people in that were just, whether it was Bolton or whoever, Mnuchin at the Treasury Secretary. Mnuchin, skull and bones. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:01 I mean, you just can't make this up. No. That's why I would love to see RFK take over the FDA. So what do you think, if Trump wins, what do you think RFK's position will be? And do you think we will get justice or retribution for the con that was the COVID lockdowns and the vaccination rollouts? You know, I think he's going to be on the transition team, which is good. So he's going to help with vet personnel. Now, whether it becomes the head of one of the agencies, I believe there's a congressional approval process.
Starting point is 00:43:45 And so that might be difficult unless Trump can, you know, you know, carry other states and elections to get to give the GOP a majority. But the congressional approval process might be a problem, but it shouldn't be. i mean i'd love to see the head of the fda or nih or dhs or not dhs but some something meaningful to help part of the uh you know cdc whatever and do you think that will lead to justice or you think that's gonna have to come from the private side we need the doj on board for that we need to open up investigations there's a lot there's a lot of there there i mean this is The problem has been that I've always said this is a metafraud. It was so big. It involved the government, the pharmaceutical industry, large tech, and the media companies. They all profited from this big COVID debacle and the pushing of the vaccines. so there's so many vested interests and that don't want to see any justice because there's
Starting point is 00:44:47 too many people implicated whether they whether you're a useful idiot or you're in on it i don't know but there's so many things that were done illegally that when it's almost like no one wants to walk what do you what should they be looking at though specifically because it's been what Last July, I looked it up, was the last time we talked, so it's 14 months. Fauci's come out and somewhat admitted that the shots could lead to myocarditis in people. He had the FOIA request that showed that they were openly telling people to take communication outside their official government email addresses and coordinating, particularly during the early days. uh ethical skeptic has been excuse me continuing to post his data on excess mortality like it's becoming more obvious and is it as bad as it was the trends particularly of excess mortality
Starting point is 00:45:44 uh last year when we last spoke uh the trends have come down because booster uptake is way down so the immediate deaths that you can link directly to the vaccine have have come down and We're running around 5% to 10% excess mortality on a run rate, which is still, remember, 10% excess mortality in working-age people is a once-in-200-year flood. So it's still going on. It peaked at 40% in 2021 in working-age people. So the good news has come down. The bad news is, you know, the medium to long-term effects are just coming to light, and we've been tracking some of them. We showed excess cancers in the U.K. and the U.S., obviously cardiovascular issues, but now there's neurological issues, musculoskeletal issues, skin issues, liver issues, blood issues.
Starting point is 00:46:32 There's all sorts of problems. So we kind of think that we're going to be running at a 5% to 10% for a while. And by the way, Swiss Re, one of the Swiss Re insurance companies, said the same thing. But, of course, they said it's due to COVID and you need to take your vaccines. So, so their numbers and our numbers match. And it's, it's not even, they're not even talking about like an uptake COVID season anymore or people even, I don't even think people are,
Starting point is 00:47:04 they're not even pretending to be worried about it anymore, which is. I think people aren't even testing for it. I mean, my, I had dinner with my high school age daughter on Sunday and she was recovering from sickness. I said, did you have COVID? She's like, I don't know. She just, you know, didn't care. I think that's kind of the attitude. People are so over it. But what we do know is we came up with three categories.
Starting point is 00:47:33 Obviously, the dead, the disabled, and the injured. And the injured are comprised of individuals with a compromised immune system. The science has come kind of – we proved that there was something going on with the workforce. their absence rates and work time loss were way up so we assumed that they were getting sicker and they were and it's come out the science has come out that igg4 is actually turned off by the spike protein which kind of turns off your immune system so people are immunocompromised and that leads to just kind of chronic sickness maybe not life-threatening but kind of you kind of work in it at 70 of speed most of the year are you what what's the latest on the fertility of the effects
Starting point is 00:48:16 excess has on fertility well so we we that's an area that we have as a pending project we're waiting for time to go by because primary the problem with fertility i'm like excess mortality death rates are pretty steady and constant and it could be measured birth rates do fluctuate uh and so uh we need you know we couldn't get a signal but the fertility and birth rates have come down we need more time if they stay down that's called persistence and then we can say that there's a new trend so statistically we we need a little more time but you know using common sense we're hearing about it all over the place yeah that's another worry this is just birth rates whether or not it's affected by this directly and there's probably it's multifaceted
Starting point is 00:49:04 it's affected by that um so multifactorial multifactorial for sure yeah yeah that's what i worry about is um particularly for millennials gen z is having kids and starting a family a lot of people that i know are delaying it i'm probably there's probably like 15 to 20 percent of my college friends have children and probably the same rate across high school friends as well um it's not good out there no and you know another trend anecdotal only um i'm a gen xer and i hang out with a lot of millennials. And I noticed a lot of them well before COVID have gotten on TRT and they have low testosterone. In my generation, I didn't really encounter anybody that was on TRT. So there seems to be a testosterone problem that's probably caused by
Starting point is 00:50:02 vaccine schedule increasing. I didn't take that many. I was born in 67. But if you're born after uh 86 87 uh and even later you've got more and more vaccines and probably also food issues environmental issues but low testosterone seems to be a problem in the younger younger age group that i've anecdotally just seen because again i know three people that are on trt personally and not for bodybuilding not for bodybuilding just to get their t up they were running at such low energy and had slight depression literally when they got their t-check it was low low twos it's insane that's why you got to get your son in your steel freaks get out there lift some weights get some sun eat well it's uh
Starting point is 00:50:54 it's a big problem if you like i mean we've talked about this off air but um i feel comfortable bringing up it it's like almost biblical in terms of it feels like again whether you want to call it empire decline but it's more of a spiritual battle as well it feels like hopefully who knows things could get worse maybe they do get worse but it doesn't feel like it can get much lower than it is right now if you just look at socioeconomic situation of many people out there um the culture of speed not even speed dating app dating only fans degenerate gambling like it feels like uh people look back in retrospect 100 years from now and be like it's very similar to what weimar the weimar republic was going through um it feels
Starting point is 00:51:41 like we're definitely in this good versus evil spiritual battle yeah there seems to be a at the root of it and you know this dei and the woke uh culture it's all about victimhood and not taking responsibility for yourself and blaming others which is a spiritual sickness in and of itself and you know it manifests like you said into narcissism uh only fans uh lots of overweight people you know wondering why uh no one wants to date them it's just there's just this this phenomenon of entitlement and victimhood that i've never seen before in my life how do you think we turn the tide on that you think we just need to bring toxic masculinity back and start making fun of people do we need to bring bullying back to a certain degree
Starting point is 00:52:31 well you know i think it's just cycles right so the saying uh hard times create uh uh good men are strong men uh good times create weak men weak men create bad times i think i think this whole woke nonsense and this victimhood if things get you know really bad where we're you know um in an economic depression and and and wars and uh food scarcity your pronouns won't matter and that just kind of corrects itself yeah do you think food scarcity is on the table well you know look at look at what's going on uh we got inflation uh we got uh weather issues all of a sudden uh we got um if we start having wars then we won't have trade and uh it it just seems to me that food is going to become a problem are you worried about the grid at all oh absolutely the i used
Starting point is 00:53:30 to be electric utility analyst at donaldson lufkin and genrec the grid the grid is a disaster we've experienced decades and decades of underinvestment in in the grid um that's one issue then you know we saw uh uh you know we talked about what could derail the election one of the things we didn't mention was a cyber attack quote-unquote cyber attack from iran i mean we already uh what what is that that's your imac settings if you go like oh it won't work for me but if you put your thumbs up you get a thumbs up too oh wow that's pretty wild um if if we get a uh we saw crowdstrike take down the internet that you know some people said that was a beta test who knows but what I do know is the intelligence agencies have floated the idea of a cyber attack
Starting point is 00:54:17 AP and Reuters came out earlier a lot at the end of last year that you know global financial crisis could be affected by a ghost in the machine so there's already floating of and you know the WEF called Schwab famously said three years ago a cyber pandemic so expect it I don't think it would be iran or a bunch of hackers in russia i think it would be uh our own deep state uh using it for their own purposes yeah it's funny the uh one of the headlines i caught earlier this week or last week the uh it became apparent to the fbi that uh chinese quote chinese hackers have been sitting within uh telecom industry companies for four years just gathering data and it wasn't because they actually hacked the system it's because they just used the back doors that the fbi forced the
Starting point is 00:55:05 telecom companies to to put in place in the first place and that's whether it's utilities companies telecom whatever it may be like these systems are all systemically fragile and vulnerable um so it doesn't have to be a china or iran like everybody not everybody but people in power particularly in the intelligence agencies know where these vulnerabilities exist because they force the companies to put them there in the first place and so easy scapegoat if they wanted to go that route Well, I think we also have a national internet kill switch that can be – the president can, I think, do that. I believe there's such capability. They never used it, but there is a kill switch, I think.
Starting point is 00:55:47 Look, when I was growing up, movies in Hollywood would depict the government as this super sophisticated, always knowing what's going on, come to the rescue. all these movies these patriotic movies the reality is the government is incompetent and has been for a long time and it's just there's because of the information flow and the whistle blowers that are coming to light we're now getting a bird's eye view into how bad it's been forever and it's a good thing and that's what i mean keep hillary away from that kill switch because she would hit it in a second given the opportunity but that's in that's the again double-edged sword things in parallel it's hilarious too to watch their incompetence get laid bare on social media and it's somewhat cathartic because that is one of the only ways we're going to turn the page and
Starting point is 00:56:41 get away from these kleptocratic insane people is to literally make fun of them they are incompetent they are stupid they do not care about you and you have this perception of them being the saviors that they were in the movies of the 80s but reality is is much different they're They're way out of their depth, and it's time for them to hopefully gracefully walk off exit stage left and just let us solve the problems by ourselves. And that's like the last two weeks in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida. I think that's another white pill out of all this. It's like that may be their biggest fear is the individual citizens proving that they could save themselves and actually don't need the government to do it. yeah and you know it's interesting the people running a lot of these departments don't even
Starting point is 00:57:29 know what's going on uh i remember a couple months ago or yeah in august when we had the downward downward revision and payroll report of like 890 000 jobs uh each i think the chamber the second the secretary uh commerce yeah was was being was being interviewed and she called she said trump's lying and she said the woman said these are your own numbers and she didn't know what the bureau of labor statistics is that was the funniest thing i ever saw in my life he's not familiar with the bls you know but you know the department of commerce can't make this up and then there was another guy i forgot i think a chamber of commerce guy in in the u.s government somebody couldn't even describe how money is made and printed and how
Starting point is 00:58:15 i didn't understand how treasuries you didn't understand how treasuries were issued yeah you didn't know so these are the people we got running the show they're in confidence yeah hopefully we can uh hopefully we can get them out of our lives so they do want to hold on to power which is what i worry about um i mean the good the good news is when hillary clinton john kerry and a host of others come out and say we need to get rid of the first amendment we've pretty much won it's just a question of what their reactions it's an admission that we've won i mean that's the good news like they can't they can't keep control anymore and that's an admission yeah yeah we just got to keep keep having these conversations keep getting the message out there
Starting point is 00:58:59 because i do think people are are waking up to and there's no better shock to the system for the individual than economic strife um and for millennials and gen z it's it's very strong it's not only economic it's social there's a lot of men and women out there who can't find a partner can't start a family and i'm saying particularly millennials my age that haven't made that transition to family formation they're beginning to get very stressed out very angry and frantic almost well unfortunately it's better for men uh because we don't have the clock that women do so we can we can start family formation later in life i feel for the women that you know find themselves in their 40s and 50s who never married yeah yeah you can you can
Starting point is 00:59:50 feel some of the uh the millennial girls hearing that clock tick louder and louder it's like uh the movie hook and uh it's uh it's sad it's really sad to watch and it goes back to the incentives of the system where we i think millennials particularly gen z to a certain extent we're just sold this complete lie go to college get a degree go into debt get a job if your girl be a girl boss if you're a boy work your way up the the corporate ladder and that's just led to a ton of misery and um bad financial outcomes for for a lot of people it was not bad financial outcomes it's bad social outcomes yeah you know if you look at the fourth turning literature the millennial generation was supposed to be the hero generation uh as we go into the
Starting point is 01:00:40 fourth turning uh you know i don't know that this is speculation on my part but given what what happened to millennials i feel like it was the powers of being new that they would be the hero generation and purposely corrupted that generation yeah i feel like yeah yeah i mean pure speculation but uh you know and there's a lot of great millennials i hang out with mostly millennials and they're great people with the same values that i have so it's not like everybody's all the same and i don't like to disparage a whole group but uh it's certainly uh it's been it's been a generation that was characterized i think unjustly but there is some there's some some truth to it yeah i think i guess i was born i was born in early 90s so i think i'm smack dab
Starting point is 01:01:27 in the middle of the millennial generation and i think what i'm at least noticing is that at least in my cohort early 90s millennials getting to the point of like holy shit we were fucking lied to and people are getting very pissed off and on top of that there's never been an easier time to basically exit the system whether that's via bitcoin or creating a business the the software tools that you have and the ability to bootstrap has never been cheaper and easier and i think people are beginning to wake up and be like all right let's go build our way out of this and we've reached the point particularly post-covid where people are many people not all some are still stuck in the matrix and consumed by mass media and the political
Starting point is 01:02:12 system but many people are saying all right it's it's time for something new and that's what i love about the bitcoin industry it's a bunch of people who are taking agency and saying let's not fight this this tide let's go build build something outside of uh outside of the system and and work towards solutions that's the other thing it's complete culture of victimhood like you mentioned earlier where it's like problem problem problem doom scroll doom scroll and very few people um at least for a while we're focused on solutions which is why i like talking to you is you do a great job of highlighting the problem and providing potential solutions and we just need more of that today's day and age more than ever is stop complaining yeah i have a way
Starting point is 01:02:56 of this like focus on solutions yeah there's a lot of hope i mean you know like like i said if stocks go down 50 60 and home prices go down 30 you know that's great for some people bad for others but that's the generation below which are not asset owners who can become asset owners and they shouldn't become asset owners because then that would reinvigorate the economy it really what i would love nothing more than for interest rates to drop the housing market to crash despite that and to lock in a house at a 40 discount at low interest rates for 30 years i'm looking for a forever home ed and uh the opportunity to be on the horizon yeah and you know the other thing is there needs to be a new mindset uh when i was uh a young a young wee kid you know my grandparents
Starting point is 01:03:46 living in the same house and it was just a you know a 1500 square foot house and it was it raised up family of three um home sizes need to come down you don't need you don't you know unless unless you're uber wealthy but if you're like on a salary you don't need a 2500 square foot house it's it's like what do you need to be happy and that's we need to build a ton of 1500 square foot homes we need more supply that's another problem we don't have enough incentives to build new homes there's 30 red tape that eats into the cost of the home so every home has got 30 of red tape built into it if we get rid of the red tape home prices drop 30 and we need to build millions and millions of you know world war ii style you know three bedroom uh homes uh
Starting point is 01:04:34 maybe with maybe with a you know a bedroom down in the basement you know just this is what we we need to do like like you're back to basics i shared a room with my brother for 18 years it's not a bad uh not a bad way to grow up it's a little awkward in your teenage years when you're going through puberty but you get through it you know it's uh and that's the other i wonder chevron deference will actually have a an effect on that red tape because a lot of you have to be lead certified what's that come from epa regulation like yeah i think that will but trump is trump has actually highlighted the red tape and i think he would want to get rid of that so i i we did a rfk had a plan for uh simulating uh homes for for young folks we we agreed with the sentiment but
Starting point is 01:05:21 we disagreed with how he wanted to do it because he wanted to the home the home prices right now are like seven times income the average income we need to get them down to at least five uh maybe even lower but so the only way to do that is to build more homes just simple and cut regulation cut regulation build more no you just give everybody 25 000 to buy their first house and prices it is insane that that's that was like the core of her economic policies like i'm just going to give you all 25 000 to buy your first house oh yeah immediately raise the home price 45 000 right then and there it's the most it's the dumbest idea my favorite was the
Starting point is 01:06:07 taxing unrealized gains that would like devastate the middle class would be wiped out wiped out the rich could figure out ways to get around it but the middle class would get like your 401k goes up or not 401k let's say you just had like a million dollars oh yeah i'm sorry you had a million dollars in uh in stocks other than your 401k and they went up to 1.2 million uh kamala would want uh i think it was 25 of your unrealized gains then you'd have to take that if you don't want to sell them you'd have to take that alone to pay that tax yeah and it's great for bankers by the way great for bankers a lot of fees a lot of fees yeah and if the rich even if they can't get out they're gonna still have to pay that tax and they would start a cascading sell-off
Starting point is 01:06:55 Oh, yeah, I know. It would start a panic in the stock markets, for sure. I mean, that's, are we in a bubble? Because those two policies alone, unrealized capital gains tax, and we're just going to give you $25,000 apiece to buy a house. Like, that's so economically illiterate. Like, how can people not see it? And that's like, going back to culture thing, this whole demonization of the rich, which obviously they're are certainly very bad and uh greedy and rich people have gotten their
Starting point is 01:07:28 wealth uh through nefarious means but most rich people are actually good people who built businesses and deserve the money that they've made and this this whole demonization that's the sad part is that the people are dependent on the democratic welfare uh state really believe that the rich are the enemy when it's not it's like actually that welfare state is what's oppressing you and preventing you from actually climbing the economic ladder yeah i mean i i think we have a bubble in idiocy in policies right now i mean i've never seen such economic illiterate policies come out of anyone's mouths the other one was raise the corporate tax rate to 28 which would make us one of the highest in the global economy and that what that would do is a corporate taxes are a tax
Starting point is 01:08:16 production so that would cause inflation to go up number one that'd be immediate effect number two it would cause capital to leave the us and go to cheaper uh domiciles so you know if you had a project to build a you know if you're a multinational corporation you had a project to build some uh capacity in the us you'd be like nope and you'd move it somewhere else and so that that would be less jobs ultimately for the middle class that's a great way to fund the cartels you just move it all to mexico and benefit down there ah man it's always a pleasure we shouldn't wait 14 months between recordings next time what um absolutely maybe we'll do one post election we should we should because uh and hopefully god willing um it's not a depressing one
Starting point is 01:09:03 because look i hope i hope he wins and then there's a lot of controversy that's the best outcome for us the worst outcome is uh uh he wins they steal it and then they try to gaslight us and there's chaos yeah okay it's not gonna i mean it still blasts me to say but last election it was mind-boggling that anybody had any sense of probability um particularly with that overnight vote jump if they did it again and that's i mean to their credit they've done a really good job last four years beating the january 6 narrative um maybe in preparation for potential uh potential election steal this time around where it's like oh you guys are in chance six years again are you look the election was stolen statistically the way the votes came in is absolutely uh improbable
Starting point is 01:09:57 anybody in the quant world now quads aren't generally brave people but if you talk to them privately especially on wall street they're like yeah that was rigged but they wouldn't say anything about it because they you know they're not the bravest of souls yeah well luckily you're a brave soul you're here i'm not afraid that's my nature i don't like i don't like people telling me what to do that's just a problem that's how i'm wired kindred spirits there i've just gotten me not in trouble but um any more of that we probably need more back family up up brains don't know No, I mean, yeah, well, it's that. And then it's like, obviously, if you go back to like Soviet Russia,
Starting point is 01:10:38 who was it, Stolensky, was literally like, live not by lies. Like that's how you ended up in that communist hell holes. People were just repeating the lies and refusing to speak out against them. Yeah, and there was a time on Wall Street when, you know, my job as an analyst and a portfolio manager was to get to the truth and figure out stuff for everybody else. Now, unfortunately, fundamental investing is only 5% of the daily volume in the stock markets. It's mostly algos and quants.
Starting point is 01:11:07 So the search for truth and getting ahead of corporate fraud or corporate earnings explosion kind of went away like a dodo bird. And I applied my skills to the real world, and it seems to be some people seem to find it helpful. All I'm doing is just doing what I did on Wall Street, just applying it to COVID, the macroeconomic situation, the fraud is now so big that we're lying about government numbers now yeah and we do uh we do have a new new last question of the show but i think you already answered it and um they think deflation is that but uh it is what is a bold prediction or idea you have that most people in your industry would disagree with oh let me think Deflation is one of, so right now, the way the system's built, it causes inflation, they raise interest rates, then credit and debt are money.
Starting point is 01:12:07 So when credit starts to contract after you raise interest rates, it causes the money supply to go down and then it creates a deflationary cycle. So we will have a deflationary cycle. The question is what do the monetary masters do in response to it? response to it? Or do they try to paper it over and never let it happen by creating another war or COVID-like spending? So it's inflate or die. The system is designed for inflationary booms and deflationary busts. The question is, you know, what's next? And we think deflation is unfortunately a very bad period of it is coming. And I think that's controversial. Most people think I'm insane. Yeah. Most people think we're going into melt-up territory, particularly with the Fed's movements.
Starting point is 01:12:52 Anybody out there listening, if you're in the Fed, the Treasury, just let the deflation happen. Don't start another war. Don't start another COVID. Just rip the Band-Aid off. Let prices reset. Rip the Band-Aid off. Just rip it off. It's been, we're going on 12 or more than that, 16 years now since 08. It's time to rip it off. Please don't start more wars. Well, you know, the great deflation really started after the OO bubble and the velocity
Starting point is 01:13:21 of money has been trending down since then into the 2020 low. Interestingly enough, the immigration, this 20 million illegal aliens that they're handing benefits to, the velocity of money started rising again. So not only do they want new voters, this is also to stave off the demographic issues in the u.s and reinflate the economy even though it's it's lower wages it will lower wages it it increases the velocity of money so immigration is not always a especially illegal immigration is always net a inflationary event so this is there's all when when you look at anything that's going on you can tie it back to the economy and uh the immigration serves a multitude of purposes
Starting point is 01:14:06 potential mercenary army down the line um uh cheap labor um and re-inflate the economy by handing them bennings that they spend immediately yeah it's crazy illegal immigrants coming in here's ten thousand dollars on the debit card go spend it um yeah on anything and that and the velocity and they're not you know they're they're coming from a land of scarcity so their mindset is i'm going to spend this while i got it and so that velocity they're not sitting like i'm going to make this last year they burn through that right away yeah it's almost like we need to fix the money making sure you can just print money and give it away to legal immigrants the system is inherently a war monitor it's a war chaos system it's built into the system it's just built into
Starting point is 01:14:55 it it's you know you need you need major events to justify spending to keep the whole thing gone so why be bitcoin you take that that power of the lever away from them you know that that that's that's that god bless you all right we'll uh we'll end it there ed ed it's always a pleasure thank you uh thank you for coming on sounds like your lawn's gonna be perfect when you get out there uh i'm sorry about that the the landscape where it comes it's okay the uh i usually record in the summers at my beach house and uh the show has become famous because there's been multiple times where i've had to ask my neighbor to stop mowing his lawn so i can finish the recording so i know what it's like yeah you
Starting point is 01:15:40 know hopefully it wasn't too bad for your audience no it wasn't it wasn't bad at all i it was i didn't actually hear it i saw him in the background at one point um ed thank you keep crushing it and uh we'll catch up after the election yeah sounds like a plan thanks marty great seeing you again all right peace and love freaks

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