TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #557: Is The True Supercycle Here? with Pascal Hügli

Episode Date: November 18, 2024

Marty sits down with Pascal Hügli to discuss the multivariate implications of Donald Trump's White House victory for bitcoin. Pascal on Twitter: https://x.com/pahueg 0:00 - Intro 1:23 - The European mind can't comprehend Trump victory 10:09 - Prediction markets 25:08 - Unchained & Coinkite 27:02 - Trump's approach to bitcoin 37:08 - SOTE 38:40 - America leading the charge on bitcoin 47:03 - Has hyperbitcoinization been pulled forward? 51:36 - Bitcoin credit products 59:05 - Supercycle? 1:11:53 - Price targets 1:14:51 - Interesting times Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Coinkite https://coinkite.com/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Salt of the Earth https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

The next target will probably be gold itself, which would be around $600,000 per Bitcoin. And then it's probably the treasury market that we're eyeing, and we will have a lot more upside as well. Pascal Hugli is a Swiss financial analyst, author, and educator specializing in digital assets and Bitcoin. He has written on topics like the impact of central bank policies on investment strategies and the evolving landscape of digital currencies. Today, we'll discuss Trump's victory and its implications for Bitcoin,

growing institutional acceptance, the potential of a super cycle, and much more. I have a feeling myself that we could be at this tipping point. Some government will start. I mean, we have seen El Salvador starting with this in 2021, but there will probably, or I just assume it's inevitable that at some point some other government will do this. You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free. If you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts.

So it's all acting like safe haven. I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. Pascal, it is very exciting. i'm going i want to warn you i got two hours of sleep last night i stayed up till 4 a.m my two-year-old slapped me in the face at 6 a.m it was uh an unexpected result here in the united

states i think many people myself included thought trump had a good chance of winning but many americans were resigned to the process taking much longer than than a day there was expectations that it would take days if not weeks to count the votes and get a final result in terms of who won the election but we had a swift red wave wash across the united states yesterday it looks like we've won the presidency the senate and the house of representatives i believe last i checked and so it seems like president trump has resounding support of the american people uh and they've been handed a mandate to push through the policies that he campaigned on and as i was mentioning right before we hit record i'm excited that you dn me

and that you're excited about what's happening here in the united states because you have a perspective being over in switzerland so what what uh what is getting you excited about this well yeah sure hey marty thanks for having me no what's getting me excited i mean in the end obviously it's it's the combination of a lot of things you know yeah i mean it's there was one thing that there is like uh at least if you see or hear around here in europe in switzerland and other places maybe like people as well you know they were expecting or like at least they were hoping i guess for harrys to win like uh and it was always taken as something yeah which is it's given you know that she would win and then obviously we there are these polls that are

being shown around also out of europe you know how people would have um like voted if if they had a chance to do this you know and it was probably even crazier than in the u.s like like in switzerland maybe 78 or something would have gone for for harris at least i mean that's that's just polls and you know some extrapolation so you don't know if you can take it like really serious but still it's kind of crazy and and things just again turned out this differently or turned out differently you know and that's what i found so interesting obviously it's also kind of as we have probably as you have talked with other guests before as i have talked many times before with my colleagues again it's yet another example of legacy media mainstream media whatever you want

to call it kind of failing you know on on a variety of of topics and then also front you know And then obviously, Bitcoin, you know, which is something that's near and dear to my heart, which now seems to be also getting more support. So that's probably why I'm so excited to just be living at this time where all these things are coming together. and uh also kind of like markets you know that was also a big takeaway for me when i was following this like the prediction market thing you know just amazing how how like more accurate i would say they they were in all of this and just uh yeah showing that uh it's either trust the market or trust the media and i think the markets have have won once again you know so that was that's that's everything was interesting or that's all like which is what is interesting to me yeah yeah The way you described it, it's almost like the meme, the European mind can't comprehend this come to life with one event.

What is it psychologically, socially over in Europe, from your perspective, that would drive people to favor somebody like Kamala Harris over Donald Trump? Yeah, it's kind of here. I haven't contemplated this in much detail, I have to have to say. I mean, originally I studied politics in university, you know, so I was I had this initial interest in politics, but then have a more kind of, yeah, just everything like reality and things happening in real life kind of drove me away from this, you know, and I ever drew closer to markets, you know, because I think that's more where reality is at. and I'm more comfortable dealing with this and that's probably also something why I was driven to Bitcoin in the first place then you know so I haven't like contemplated this in any meaningful depth you know but still I would say yeah it's just interesting uh Europe it's probably more than the the US you know like having this um yeah I don't know how to call it maybe uh people have lived too well for too long you know and that's why they have kind of uh accustomed

to this feeling that government is always there and kind of needs to protect you and and and it's just the ultimate authority and then if you have somebody like trump you know which kind of also teamed up with these i would say in in the typical european mind the the evildoers you know uh the male tech billionaires the the true market uh capitalists you know then it's it's this cocktail that many people don't like and that's why they're categorically are opposed to to something like this you know and if you really talk to the general leftish people over here you know all they can reiterate is like saying okay trump you know they they it's all just personal you know because he's this person who has sexually abused some people he was convicted and now the american

mind can can still go ahead and and kind of vote somebody like him into office which is just crazy you know but i feel like they don't really evaluate this in terms of policies you know where i would maybe sometimes even say well trump is kind of too far for me you know coming maybe from a libertarian background and stuff but it's more at home in them and they're just evaluating this like uh from from their personal views and maybe the the poll maybe you've seen it uh shared around on twitter it was this poll that was taken all throughout europe you know where people were asked how they how they voted and i mean what's really interesting is that like the countries that would have gone and voted for trump or maybe like uh predominantly for trump they are all the

countries in Eastern Europe, you know, countries that maybe at some point in time experienced true socialism, you know, and all the other countries, which are way more in favor of Kamala Harris, for some reason, are the other countries in Europe. So that's also something to point out, which is interesting. Yeah, I saw Alan Farrington share that chart with a with a funny quip in a tweet. Yeah. And it is fascinating. And I think a large part, whether it's socially driven by the tendencies of countries in Western Europe to favor more collectivist policy, but going to the ad hominins, I think the mainstream media, both here in the United States and abroad, has done individuals the world over a grave disservice over many years, but particularly leading up to this campaign.

And that's what I think not only was this election a massive signal of support for Trump and the policies that he's putting forth, but it's also a massive signal for the delegitimization of the mainstream media, particularly here in the United States. Because if you work here in the lead up to the election, watching what the mainstream media was putting out there and how they were positioning both candidates, it was very biased. And they were objectively misleading people, whether that was in the mischaracterization of Donald Trump or the projected support for each candidate. And that's something that has really been a growing trend over, I believe, the last three presidential elections here in the United States is you're seeing in parallel the delegitimization of the media, but also the polls that are used to sway perception around the election, particularly in the lead up to the election. The polls have been rendered completely useless in the last 12 years. yeah exactly i mean that that one that's something i found particularly interesting you know being from europe and switzerland you know with the time delay so i was like okay but i was following this as well you know but i was kind of looking at these as i already mentioned these prediction

markets you know and one being this polymarket thing you know which uh has been floating around and whatever people think of it you know it's it's uh it's something which is really interesting Because I read this this morning that there were like three point six billion dollars traded on this presidential election, which is to me quite significant and like seems to be like a brick market that was there, you know. And one or two things that struck me is really because obviously, as I said, the time delay, I wanted to go to bed at some point, you know. But when I was going to bed, maybe at like two or three o'clock my time, I was already quite assured that Trump is going to win, you know. And this is really because I wasn't following any news from any major outlet or something. I was just looking at these polymarket stats, you know, and you have like these two findings that I would see. It's like polymarket was way more accurate, like this prediction market on forecasting going into the election, you know, on the forecast.

and also it called the election almost in real time you know way before the media did you know and that to me is just again markets winning over like media and centralized hops of information you know because like these prediction markets they distill inputs from many diverse actors to produce prices obviously you know and that transcend then sort of these confirmation biases And that's so interesting that a market is just, yeah, where information comes together and is distilled. And then in the end, it's the outright truth or reality that's there. And that's what I found so interesting, you know, that just by following this, you could very well be ahead of the herd in predicting this as well. And it just shows, you know, how the media is playing or the mainstream legacy media is playing these games, you know, by trying to tell the audience it's a close game where in reality it was not, you know.

And they are also kind of really hating on these prediction markets, you know, calling them out as something. Yeah, it's only like Trump loving crypto bros from outside the US who use this. But in the end, again, this doesn't matter, you know, with markets. markets they don't care about identity it's just people you know that have skin in the game and that kind of um we're using this and that's what i find interesting you know again that this seemed to be really for the first time with such a liquid market that we've seen markets um triumphing over over as i said centralized media hops and i think in the future there will be a lot more of this hopefully sometimes in the future built on bitcoin or around bitcoin as well so that's what i find

so so fascinating yeah and the concept of prediction markets particularly in the bitcoin circle cypherpunk circle circles more broadly has been talked about for quite some time essentially theorizing over a decade ago that if we were able to have this free market of predictions enabled by a free market for money um a liquid a liquid market with money that cannot be censored you you could get better information around particular events. And there have been prediction markets in the past predicted, but I think it has pretty centralized rails, particularly from a monetary perspective.

And I think this is the first U.S. election. Elections are probably, at least to date, the biggest markets which attract liquidity for predictions around particular events. And it feels like this was an inflection point for the trajectory of prediction markets, polymarket. Regardless of what you think about it being built on an alternative cryptocurrency route,

it is objectively true that it was massively successful and did provide significant signal to the market in the lead up to the election. And so what does this mean moving forward in your mind? Well, yeah, what does it mean? I mean, for me, it kind of means markets are just going to win on so many fronts going forward you know i think bitcoin is the prime example with a market winning in money you know and and that's what we're already seeing and i think something like poly

market is really something yeah in in the realm of information again you know and of of predicting stuff you know which becomes ever more prevalent in today's world you know with things happening with financial markets which make up a huge chunk of everybody's daily life unfortunately you know because uh everyone has to become a speculator nowadays you know but then obviously yeah this is something people want to turn to and and that's what i find so interesting so in the end i think this is where it's it's gonna go you know that it seems like uh yeah with bitcoin for the past 16 years you know it's just one big proof that uh finance or like a free market in in money is is so much better or in reality like kind of depicts reality that much better and that's why

more and more people are kind of flocking to it and for me now this thing with polymarket was again yeah another proof of this you know and this doesn't mean that polymarket will be will just be going on crazily you know and that the liquidity will still be there but it was another proof and whenever big interesting things happen in the world i mean this is at least for me where i i will turn to uh next you know and and and increasingly get my my information and all my my inputs from from something like this and that's what i find fascinating in the end yeah yeah it was interesting too because obviously a polymarket where you have these predetermined events that you can then go bet on and as you approach the event the the odds of a particular

outcome change depending on the confidence of of that outcome happening um but we also have bitcoin reacting to this in real time too bitcoin was acting as a sort of separate prediction market that the price shot up to 71 000 then i believe like 10 minutes later went up to 72 half an hour later up to 73 so like as it was becoming clear on polymarket and um within people who were actually able to read the tea leaves and see what was going on that trump it seemed that trump was going to win resoundingly like the price of bitcoin started shooting up as well um which is a bullish signal and we've seen this in other events too not necessarily the price going up but um bitcoin does act maybe not as a prediction market but a global alarm system in times of liquidity crunches

or crises i think most recently october 7th of last year was a great example of that where you had um hamas attack israel on a saturday and the only market trading at the time was bitcoin much dumped i believe 10 percent um and that was a signal like there's going to be some chaos in the markets on monday yeah for sure yeah exactly i mean as you said bitcoin is really this global liquidity barometer so to say you know and uh yeah there there's also some truth in this but then polymarket yeah we just said thought uh in real time you know during these elections i mean maybe one more point on this you know that might be interesting for everyone to to hear because that was an observation i also made and i saw some other people comment this comment on this as

well you know that it was actually really moving in real time you know as i said like this this this this uh information coming in because i think it was well um this or it could be well discovered when you you had like these polymarket prediction uh outcomes you know and people were looking at them and then obviously as these uh first states in the us came in you know and votes were counted And you could kind of see, OK, these polls that people had, Trump, for example, is like significantly outperforming them. He's doing a lot better in reality than the polls were saying, you know. Then obviously some of the like really smart and savvy people were going, OK, this is probably a mistake that is not random, you know. And it's probably if the polls are wrong in some states, they're probably also wrong almost to the same extent in other states as well.

You know, and then that was actually the case when then that these traders on poly markets, they saw that. And that was then when they kind of were, that Trump was getting a lot more votes than expected in some states that were not as competitive, that they were then kind of suggesting, okay, we don't have to wait on other outcomes in swing states because we can extrapolate this, you know, these, like in, I would say, the things that the votes were inaccurate, you know, in these other states. And that was kind of, if you know what I mean, it was, how would I say, extrapolated. And that's why they already knew, OK, in other swing states, even though votes are not counted, we know that, yeah, there's not going to be any discrepancy, so to say. That was the interesting thing that I also figured, and people could kind of way earlier settle on high probabilities that Trump is going to win in these states as well. And so that was also quite an interesting observation for me, so to say, if you know what I mean. Yeah, yeah, you can see the trends materializing in the states that are reporting voting numbers earlier than others. And again, like you said, extrapolate that.

Well, if this trend is happening here, you have a certain demographic of people thinking a certain way in this part of the country. It's likely that that same demographic in another part of the country is thinking the same way as well. So it would make sense to vote that he's going to win or bet that he's going to win. And it's fascinating. I mean, just to tie up the knot on prediction markets before we get into the bigger implications that Trump getting in the office has on Bitcoin as a whole, do you think we see drastic changes in how people interact with these events and the information around them moving forward? Well, I mean, probably not everyone, obviously, you know, because some people, I think these

things will never trickle down to them you know because they are just not uh they still kind of believe okay this was just random you know and it's not the way uh i will interact in the future because i think there's still a general distrust in markets you know and that's why exactly then some people were really calling it bullshit you know like oh it's not going to happen and then these poly markets must be wrong it must be or like prediction markets must be wrong it must be manipulated and this is just general like to me uh sort of a a or an expression of a a general distrust in market you know and and and and not believing that something like this in information can also um yeah lead to great price discovery and then obviously to to more accurate uh predictions

you know so i think like a lot of people will remain skeptical but the ones probably um that that kind of maybe have a natural tendency to flock to something like this the ones that are probably already kind of skeptical with mainstream media maybe this time around we have another like at the martian number of people who kind of yeah that it have this aha moment where they say okay now it dawned on me once again you know i could really not trust this because they were so wrong and i have to go look for alternatives i wouldn't expect like this great change you know where all of a sudden like uh people would only follow this but at the margin i believe it's the same with bitcoin it's the same with every market-driven technology people in the end

who are interested in in in living life on and acting accordingly or in accordance or in greater accordance with reality will flock to these type of systems so i would assume um they they have upside you know in that sense but not like generally or at least i don't think i don't see that happening anytime soon yeah i had uh james parag on last week who's the founder of bitcoin prediction dot market which is trying to build a poly or is building a poly market like marketplace on top of bitcoin using the lightning network and that was part of the discussion the philosophical discussion that we got into like with these prediction markets existing does it introduce the potential to actually change an outcome if you basically say this event's going

to happen six months from now you start betting on it and as you get closer the odds sort of become clearer and if you don't want that event to happen let's say it's a bad event like could looking at the prediction market seeing that's a high probability event that may come to be in the future and knowing that it's a high probability you act to to reduce the probability so that a bad outcome doesn't materialize yeah i mean it's probably an interesting thought experience i haven't thought about this in in greater detail because like at the top or off the top of my head will kind of assume yeah you may be able to to manipulate markets in your favor like especially if if there's not a lot of liquidity you know and and you have like deep pockets but in the

end you kind of have to believe that you can beat the market you know and because uh yeah and and also kind of have to be willing uh to put money on the line that you can lose because again you can try to manipulate manipulate things lower but if then the market um just doesn't buy it off you you know or has another view entirely then then then you will lose out you know and that's probably just with markets in general you know because the same discussion is going on with companies and some people say okay can like large holders manipulate the price indefinitely we have the same discussions with bitcoin or used to have them maybe not that much anymore and i always think, yeah, it's a free market and people can certainly try, but it's probably going to be

to their own detriment if the market doesn't think that they're right and thinks otherwise, then they're in for a loss of money. That's what I would think at least. Yeah. So for this episode of TFTC is brought to you by our good friends at Unchained. Do you have an old IRA or 401k that isn't keeping up with Bitcoin? Rolled over into an Unchained Bitcoin IRA and take advantage of Bitcoin's long-term potential while enjoying tax-deferred growth. With Unchain, you hold real Bitcoin and keep control of your keys, reducing counterparty risk through their collaborative custody model while Unchain handles the tax forms. It's very important they handle the tax forms. Get started now with no setup fees and no account fee for the first year. Not only is

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Use the code TFTC. We have a code now. TFTC for 5% off at checkout. I mean, now the event, the outcome of the event is clear. Donald Trump is president. He has been very favorable towards Bitcoin during his campaign. Many people are convinced, and I think rightly so, that there will be, Bitcoin will be, maybe not front and center, will be a part of his overall strategy as he enters the White House again. And so with all that in mind, as it stands today, I believe we're currently at an all-time high above 76,000.

Bitcoin is a $1.5 trillion market cap asset at the moment. As somebody who's been deep into Bitcoin for many years now, how would you define where Bitcoin stands today and where it's going to go in the short to medium term? Yeah, good question. I mean, yeah, it's certainly something you would have never believed or I would not have believed to be happening that soon. You know, I mean, obviously, you were always contemplating that the big players were coming, you know, that in the end, Bitcoin is for everyone. Bitcoin is for enemies. And that way, it's also for institutions and like big tech billionaires and in the end, even governments, you know. And so you were always probably thinking this back in your mind, or at least I was, you know.

And back in the day, in 2018, when I wrote my book, I was also kind of contemplating this theory, like many others, you know, of kind of when the first central banks kind of buy Bitcoin, you know, as sort of a hedge and stuff. And I never really thought of that it could actually be governments, you know, and thinking about something like building up a strategic Bitcoin research or something. but i mean now here we are and these things have become a lot more probable i think a lot of people are still kind of skeptical that something like this in the u.s could happen and and so i think uh not enough of this is priced in yet because like it still feels so surreal you know like why why would the us government uh do this uh with something which is only like 16 years old isn't that too much of a a risk a reputation risk still even if you are a hardcore bitcoin believer it's yeah it's it's kind of like 16 years that's nothing you know and and and uh we're already

talking uh and these big dimensions you know but that at the same time i think uh it's it's the modern world you know the modern world is like moving uh exponentially ever ever faster ever more exponential, you know, and it's so hard for us to kind of things that move exponential to kind of fathom, you know, because there's this important or like a lot of example that are trying this, you know, we can think linearly, like in a linear way as human beings. And as soon as something gets exponential, our minds are not wired to think that way, you know, and that's certainly something that we have learned, like when you go back in history, you know, ever since the world entered modernity, you know, maybe sometimes during

the industrial revolution, you know, when banking and also central banking kind of was probably having its advent, you know, then the world actually moved in this modern type of environment where things have just accelerated ever since. And that's why if I think about it in that respect, I'm kind of again, OK, maybe 16 years it's nothing you know and and it's actually yeah because things are moving that fast but we'll see i mean uh we don't know yet if something like this is going to happen as i said the the strategic bitcoin reserve which would be huge but it's a possibility that has become a lot more probable now with a trump presidency i would say and you mentioned there's naysayers bitcoin's only

16 years old why would a government do this but let's put forth the argument like why would you argue that the u.s government should build a strategic bitcoin reserve well that's a that's a great question i'm actually contemplating this uh myself you know because i'm always trying to play devil's advocate as well and kind of like think okay why should they be doing this i mean the pro arguments i see is probably yeah because um maybe not or at least how i approach this as of now to kind of make sense is maybe not so much from a government perspective but mere from a government perspective as government being um somebody who has to work in service of their of their constituents or like their their citizens you know and in that way i

kind of makes sense to me, you know, if you are a U.S. government and you know that you have a lot of people within your national borders that are holders of Bitcoin and they will disproportionately benefit if you adopt Bitcoin as a strategic Bitcoin reserve, then obviously you also have to kind of have a positive regulatory environment. You kind of have to make sure everything is well kept, so to say, you know, and then it kind of makes sense for me, you know, because then you're doing this on behalf of your citizens and strengthening them, you know, sort of like, yeah, you have the US treasuries, which are the ultimate safe haven for institutions. And maybe, as we always hear, Bitcoin is really the ultimate safe asset for people and increasingly also for institutions. That's what we're seeing as well. But that's something how I try to approach this.

And then also maybe just economically speaking, you know, you could think that, I mean, the U.S. government, we keep on hearing this, that they have this exorbitant privilege, you know, where they kind of really benefit from having the world's reserve currency. And it's obviously it is probably a big benefit, but it's also to the detriment of large parts of society, you know, because we have this so-called Triffin's dilemma that you probably have heard of, you know, where the U.S. really struggles with having to export U.S. dollars and then having to keep this trade deficit, you know, with other countries. And this kind of just has led to the fact that the U.S. has deindustrialized and then just kind of hollowed out its middle class and stuff, you know. And so that's really because of this problem, you know, because the U.S. has this world reserve currency. And if you kind of think about it now that we have Bitcoin and you have maybe a government, a strategic Bitcoin reserve endorsed by the U.S. government, then this kind of gives Bitcoin further credibility for other governments to also move in. And then at the margin, you can also funnel dollar liquidity and other liquidity, you know, into this Bitcoin vehicle and thereby probably kind of counteracting this Griffin's dilemma, you know. So that's another thought that I've been having. I still have to think about this in more detail. But this is something I think where it makes sense, at least from that perspective, I would say. Yeah. And especially when you factor in Trump's tax policy, which includes a heavy tariff regime, which is a direct attack on the consequences of Triffin's dilemma, which is you print the world reserve currency, you have to flood international markets with it.

and you do that by buying their cheap labor and and at the detriment of the manufacturing base at home and that seems like that is one of trump's core policies is we're going to raise tariffs to try and reinvigorate the manufacturing base here domestically in the united states and that's almost like a recognition like we need to get away from triffin's dilemma and so you would probably i would think need something like a strategic bitcoin reserve to counteract the forces that that will be introduced to the market with the tariffs yeah yeah i would assume as well i mean i would have to think about this in more detail but but sure i mean in the end this is yeah this would be sort of a counter acting factor i mean that's

just a thought that i'm having a lot of people are arguing that it's also net beneficial because like u.s government debt situation you know and if you kind of uh trying to reinforce the u.s dollar by having some sort of bitcoin backing you know then in times of stress it might help and i'm not sure if i buy this argument just yet you know because like yeah the u.s government it probably has some facilities you know um i think it has this economic stability fund as well where it can kind of mandate the treasury to to kind of calm markets if things get rough you know and then again it can probably nominally at least indefinitely buy its debt you know and and there i'm i'm not quite sure if if this is really something uh at least in today's environment

where this would would make any difference you know to the market if you say yeah we have now Bitcoin backing. I don't know if debtors around the world who are loaning money to the government of the United States would feel any different. At least that's kind of like my feeling. Maybe this could change further down the line, you know, but I don't know how you think about this, but this feels kind of maybe an argument that's being made by the Bitcoiners, but I am not sure if it really adds up. This rip was also brought to you by good friends at Zaprite. If you're a Bitcoiner and run a business or an independent contractor, you should be accepting Bitcoin as payment. If not you, then who? If we believe that fiat is systemically fragile and is a risk,

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annual subscription zap right.com slash tftc forty dollars off this rip was also brought to you by our good friends at salt of the earth you got to be hydrating freaks and while you're hydrating got to be getting your electrolytes this is the best electrolytes mix that i've ever come into contact with pink himalayan salt with calcium magnesium potassium sodium no sugar it tastes incredible my favorite is the orange and the pink lemonade go to drink saute.com that's drink sote.com use the code tftc when you make your purchase and you'll get 15 off i'm telling you get on it freaks you're gonna love this stuff yeah i'm not sure the debt seems so insurmountable at this time that i mean i think maybe put a dent in the total debt with a strategic bitcoin reserve that can

only be used to pay off the debt at some point but that you need bitcoin to monetize significantly for it to make a significant debt dent in the the debt i think now as we're having this conversation like the bitcoin strategic reserve from the point of the u.s government could be a strategic move to send a signal to the market that the u.s government's given the stamp of approval to bitcoin obviously they'll be pulling some supply off the market to put in that reserve and then you have the game theory that plays after that where the u.s is doing this should we be doing this everybody buys it and maybe the ultimate goal is to drive the price of bitcoin up understanding that americans on a per capita basis hold the most bitcoin in the world and so they want to increase

the individual wealth of american citizens to put them in a better position yeah exactly exactly that's that's probably how i think about it exactly because that's that's also the major and biggest risk that you're running as a government you know today in today's world you know what if any other country you know let's assume from a u.s perspective the russians the chinese or who are the indians or whatever else there is you know like they are at some point um acknowledging this you know and then they're encouraging its citizens to buy bitcoin and then bitcoin like uh significantly significantly uh appreciates and then uh you have all these non-us citizens holding a lot of wealth in in something which uh is also not part of the u.s financial

system then you might be worse off in the end you know from a u.s perspective and that's why i think because from the game game like theoretical perspective at some point something like this will have to play out some government will start i mean we have seen el salvador starting with this in 2021 but there will probably or it just assumes it's inevitable that at some point some other government will do this you know and and and that's why i think it's the sooner the later or the sooner the US starts with something like this, which I still kind of see as somewhat in line with, with where I'm coming from Europe, you know, Switzerland, maybe, yeah, more, more liberal democracy, if we want to call it

like this, you know, then, then at the margin, this is probably something I would be more keen to see, you know, and that's why I think it would be would be great move by the us to do something like this but really always having the individual in mind and not so much the government the government would just be as i said the one the one entity yeah really doing this in service of its citizens yeah yeah and it's crazy to see it actually play out who knows if the bitcoin act will get passed and the government will start buying bitcoin putting it in the strategic reserve but the fact that it's even being discussed is crazy and a direct validation of the game theory that bitcoin has been talking about for 15 years which

is uh at some point everybody's gonna have to play the game whether it's an individual company sovereign wealth fund a sovereign nation and it's gonna happen and it seems like it is happening and the game theory has always been such it's advantageous to be an early mover as opposed to a late mover and it is honestly a bit shocking to me that the united states has the potential to be one of the early movers in this i thought we would be a laggard and it is encouraging that we're thinking seriously about this and potentially going to be an early mover in terms of bitcoin accumulation on the nation state level yeah yeah it's interesting that you say this that you kind of have the feeling that you guys will be a laggard because i had the same feeling

also again trying to think from a market perspective i'd assume that like smaller countries you know like switzerland like maybe lichtenstein or other countries would would actually be faster in doing something like this you know but then i mean here in switzerland we could argue that we have a vibrant crypto ecosystem but then again for what it's worth i don't know if this is really going to to play out well and be really the winning strategy so to say you know And then other countries, yeah, Liechtenstein again, you know, it's this really small country that I would assume they could have had the incentives and also maybe the knowledge to pull off something like this, but they haven't, you know. And it's then probably other countries like El Salvador, Bhutan, or I don't know, you know, who are probably now first movers here. And now already we see the United States coming in, you know, and it's always just interesting.

know to kind of see these dynamics playing out i mean it's similar to this whole discussion it's maybe a little bit of tangent but you know this discussion with micro strategy and coinbase you probably have have followed this as well you know where people are kind of pointing out it's crazy coinbase has been in the game for for so long you know and and and they it never really dawned on them to kind of put bitcoin on their balance sheet you know and they were just kind of distracted with with this whole decentralized altcoin casino and pushing this and now we've seen micro strategy that came along is only in the game for four years and this is already kind of out competing coinbase especially when it comes to its stock and you know we've seen this and and so

so so much better and there you see sometimes the ones that you probably expect these things to to most uh intuitively get it and do it are not the ones that that actually do it in the end and that's what i find so interesting as well yeah i always thought the u.s would be laggard because of the fact that we had the world reserve currency and um an adoption of bitcoin is almost a recognition that that is not going to last forever and i always believe that or long believe that the u.s would try to hold off acknowledging that for as long as possible so that i think that's the shocking thing to me is that the recognition has happened um before other countries and only 16 years into bitcoin's life yeah i see but you you could almost argue that the u.s has like the

biggest stake to lose and that's why they're now probably it's dawning on them you know because they have the world reserve currency i mean it's probably the biggest uh they're running the biggest risk of losing this you know and now that it's probably yeah i mean it's bitcoin you know that's playing a huge role here and and then again probably also stable coins you know and i think these are like two two technologies that kind of work in tandem you know and and kind of also reinforce each other and and that way it could also be interesting for the us to say okay we are adopting bitcoin you know uh sort of as this is this um more decentralized version and it's really uh this one part of our um so to say identity you know which is still somewhat

yeah it's liberty it's libertarian thinking it's decentralized something that seems to be somewhat still left in in the dna of the us and then again you have maybe the more centralized version which is the us dollar which is also quite powerful and and there i think it's a the reason you see that they are kind of trying to um yeah go down this stable coin route as well where they say okay we want to we all want to adopt this we want to bring it on shore we really want to uh regulate this as well because this is a way to also kind of uh up keep other like kind of help to maintain this position of of having the world reserve currency and so uh as i said it can also be it can almost be argued that they they have the biggest stakes and uh to lose and then they don't want this and

that's why it's now dawning on them and maybe faster than than on other countries you know and faster than like we said earlier either of us probably expected and with that in mind like how how much time has been pulled forward in terms of the time it will take for bitcoin to monetize considerably um by the u.s government like let's just run with the assumption that the bitcoin act gets passed and the u.s government starts accumulating a bitcoin reserve like what does that do for the price of bitcoin the market like how how crazy do things get if that actually happens in your mind yeah good good question i mean it's also something that i would probably have to think about in more detail because yeah i mean it it's yeah it seems to be so far-fetched

and at the same time so close now but i mean the game theory would yeah would accelerate you know because i think uh once the us uh actually uh implement something like this and it would become publicly known then i think a lot of the market would have to follow suit you know and and kind of have to everything would get priced in you know and maybe you could argue uh it's even if even if the us doesn't uh officially announce it you know and it keeps on speculating with it all uh on the back uh drop of trump now being president and having kind of uh sort of endorsed endorsed something like this you know then then from from uh from an outsider perspective you're never really sure if if the us is going to pull this off or not you know and then maybe just to kind of hedge

yourself as another country you will have to front run or at least try to front run this you know because uh what if the us at some point um announces hey we have done it and then i mean overnight we we finally get this omega god candle that everyone is still looking for you know and and and that could be crazy so that could also accelerate things you know because you don't want to be left behind so i think now even though i don't want to sound too bullish and stuff all all yeah all hats are somehow off and and we'll see uh what's what's happening or what's going to happen i was just about to ask you like is hyper bitcoinization real or is it just a meme um yeah i mean probably it is i mean to me it's always like i because i i do still work in the

fiat world you know i think that's where we originally met you know in rica i was there on part of the bank that i'm working with obviously they have been in bitcoin for quite some time and i'm trying to also further the bitcoin standard within the bank but i mean i'm saying this because i think the fiat is not going away anytime soon that's at least my belief you know i i could imagine a world of fiat staying around you know and and just like uh devaluate devaluing ever more you know and and uh because like it's going to be debased in real terms and maybe nominally it stays around you know and and people uh like maybe at the march and some figure it out but a lot of people still won't figure it out you know and and so i do believe that

hyper bitcoinization yeah it's already happening it's maybe not happening the way like these true og bitcoiners thought that at some time at some point in time bitcoin is the only currency left and has devoured everything else i would rather assume that bitcoin is is monetizing as well quite hard but at the same time it's the us dollar through stablecoin which is kind of devouring almost every other uh fiat currency on the world you know and then it's really this two uh this uh two uh spiked uh i would say spear you know yeah one side you have bitcoin on the other side you have the us dollar and maybe just a few other fiat which are still standing but so if you ask me i I think hyper-Bitcoinization is happening.

At the same time, fiat is going to stick around, at least nominally. So yeah, I think it could just go on for quite some time. And we that live in a sort of Bitcoin world, we see a lot of our surroundings improve and everything else. And maybe for the other people who are not sticking around, for them, things might get worse in the end.

Yeah. uh i think the price increase can certainly i mean if the u.s government gets in starts acquiring a strategic reserve with the sole intent of paying off debt in the future which means you're going to pull supply off and keep it off the market for quite some time um and then what i'm just seeing on the 1031 side and sorry uh listeners i know i've used this example many times in the last couple weeks but it's top of mind because i do think it's going to be a major catalyst for pulling uh large swaths of supply off the market for longer periods of time is bitcoin being recognized as a super collateral that can be imbued in structured credit products

longer duration structured credit products where that's mortgages commercial real estate even auto loans and you sort of dual collateralize the let's just use real estate real estate asset with the real estate and bitcoin hold it within the loan structure um and essentially hedge the risk of your house being demonetized or something by having bitcoin equity in the bitcoin within the the credit structure and we've funded some companies that are going out to the market and doing this at 1031 and if you play that out and these strategies develop a track record that makes it clear that is this is superior credit product both from the borrower's perspective and the lender's perspective the lender gets a better rate of return the borrower gets more

more secure and predictable equity within the the credit product that it's going to be a no-brainer for others and you're going to start pulling bitcoin into these credit products as collateral and they're going to stay in that that credit product for 10 30 years yeah yeah exactly i mean And the way you described it, I mean, that's something that we're also contemplating, just like at the margin at the bank, you know, because we're at least some of us within the bank are already thinking in these terms, you know, because we believe the world is moving in that direction. And something like the U.S. endorsing Bitcoin through a strategic Bitcoin reserve would further legitimize something like this, you know, because then it was probably already the Bitcoin ETFs. You know, Larry Fink was the first genius, so to say, you know, and now probably Donald Trump and the entire US government could be the other final nail in the coffin, you know, where people then kind of capitulate and say, okay, we're seeing, yeah, it's correct, you know, Bitcoin is here to stay. And then also if the U.S. would move into something like Bitcoin, you know, with like significant amount of capital, then in the end, this would also make the Bitcoin market more liquid. I would assume that the Bitcoin market being more liquid and being bigger, you know, in terms of in terms of size, it would also stabilize a little more.

And that, again, would still make it for a lot of people and institutions, again, more attractable, you know, or attractive, so to say, that they say, OK, now it has this seal of approval by almost everyone on the planet. It's even bigger. It's even more liquid, you know, it's even more stable, so to say. I'm happy to move in because there's still going to be a more big upside compared to other things you know because of the 21 million limit that nobody or nothing else has and then as you described it would be implemented into different types of loan structures the credit

structures and and and just uh the the hyper bitcoinization and adoption would keep keep going on yeah yeah and what are you i mean obviously the bank that you work for has been on top of this you've been um dealing with bitcoin for the better part of a decade now at the bank that you're at on behalf of your clients helping them get access to it what what are you seeing in the broader banking industry as it pertains to how bitcoin is being viewed yeah i mean uh i can mostly speak for switzerland you know which has been quite uh at the forefront of it all you know i mean we've had this yeah i would say bills that were introduced in 2021 already you know where we kind of made it very easy and also pretty favorable in from from the perspective of a client

to to custody bitcoin with banks you know i think this is something which is still not possible in the u.s it might change now as trump is moving into office you know that like normal banks can officially custody bitcoin and keep can keep it off balance sheet for the clients you know so in the terms of a in a bankruptcy or something it's all safe and and the bitcoin can be delivered right to to a customer's wallet you know and and that's something i believe only like the true big banks can do nowadays in the u.s because they got some exemption or something you know from from some folks and in switzerland we can already do this you know and that kind of helped accelerate the entire entire industry obviously there is still a lot of crypto things going on with the

bank you know most of the banks are are offering like uh just uh brokerage you know and then also trading and and kind of custodying of these assets and and i think the next area is going to be uh products that actually are built on on products that make sense and there i would assume most banks will will move uh into products which are based on bitcoin because on other cryptocurrencies i mean they might have been good for trading you know and and for speculating and and and put them in some sort of portfolio even there it's dawning on more and more people that most of the cryptos are not uh keeping up with bitcoin and so over multiple cycles it doesn't make sense to keep them in any long-term or long-term focused or oriented portfolio but then again even if when

it comes or even like further you know when it comes to special products uh borrowing against your stack you know putting it in in some structured products or stuff like this Bitcoin is the only one which really makes sense, you know, because it has the legitimacy, it has the track record and everything. And it's also the only thing really demanded by clients, you know, like on a broader scale, I would argue. And so this is probably the next wave that we're seeing in Switzerland already. Like a lot of banks are exploring solutions to work together with OG Bitcoin companies to offer these kind of things. we're looking at this as well um yeah as a small country we can move a little um faster but now when the us actually now is moving into bitcoin real big time with with banks and everything i

mean this is going to be quite some competition and then i think switzerland would have to move even faster but uh to keep its edge edge you know but that's at least what i can say out of of switzerland if things are moving along and and bitcoin is getting ever more integrated into the system for sure you're getting me more bullish it feels like we're approaching the suddenly moment that's i don't want to say i've been hedging my but i've been like we think about this a lot of 1031 particularly when we're allocating into companies like timing like there's many ideas out there in the world of bitcoin in terms of products that can be brought to market that are enabled today like the question is is the timing right for this product um like obscure lightning

network use cases that make a lot of sense and actually work but however the market just simply isn't there that yet from an adoption perspective or understanding of the tech stack and how you should interact with these products and to date i mean i think the killer apps in bitcoin are the companies that have had the most success are things like mining hardware and then buy sell bitcoin um it's still the killer app you get onboard people and people are mostly going to buy bitcoin so giving them the avenues to to do that is a killer product and beyond that i mean we've seen it with unchanged you mentioned that we were at the baltic honey badger conference hosted by hodl hodl and debify those are great examples of companies that found product market fit using

bitcoin as collateral to um to receive us dollar loans uh i think that market is really mature and i think building on that bitcoin collateralized us dollar loan or euro loan whatever it may be product and making it i don't want to say more exotic but pushing it further into the world of credit with these structure products seems like this cycle could be good timing for something like that yeah i mean this suddenly phase you know that you just mentioned this is really something that i'm contemplating you know are we at this point already and and then what does it mean you know is it going to be suddenly and now like indefinitely or or like uh like some people are speaking of this sort of super cycle you know with bitcoin because and and i'm really trying to

wrap my head around you know is something like this going to be possible you know and something inside of me obviously tells me okay or or says well i mean if the u.s should be uh kind of um yeah endorsing bitcoin big time you know also regulatory wise and everything through a bitcoin strategic reserve and all these different types of things then then something like this could be possible you know and then also because yeah the legitimate legitimacy is here you know and the infrastructure is here and people can actually use these products but then again maybe the more bearish person inside of me is kind of like yeah but is it really that easy you know what if the bitcoin market kind of slows down again we have some sort of maybe not prologue prolonged bear

market but maybe again some smaller like bear market you know where price is kind of collapsing again is is it then not the case that some people are going to lose interest again and then these products you know bitcoin based uh bitcoin based structured products maybe maybe there's not going to be that much demand for it i'm not sure because at the same time bitcoin might already be at a way higher price the next time it already like consolidates and it's coming down again which also means we have probably a bigger amount or a bigger number of people who still uh even if it comes down is storing a greater amount of wealth in bitcoin and they don't care and they are the ones that are then going to demand these products you know and and so it's still gonna be like a

some sort of secular uh upwards trend so this is all the questions that i'm contemplating and i'm not sure myself i don't know how you approach this but uh yeah we will see i have uh i have super cycle ptsd because that was the big meme that led to uh the uh show that was ftx celsius block fi all that he had suzu the three arrows guys going out there super cycle whenever going back down and so i'm uh i have natural apprehension to throw my weight behind the super cycle meme but with all the factors we've been discussing throughout this conversation there is a reality which i can see materializing where we do not have the typical four-year cycles that we've had historically up to this point like we've talked about this whether you call it

hyper Bitcoinization or the tipping point. That's one thing I'm grappling with doing the internal calculus. Cause you have many factors, maturity of the industry, the on-ramps custody products around the financialization of Bitcoin. Then you have the fact that it's been around 16 years. Like is Bitcoin a big enough brand name? Does it have enough brand recognition?

Is it Lindy enough where people are like, Oh yeah. you hear about marketing all the time it takes x amount of touch points for somebody to actually convert into a user of a product like has bitcoin been around enough that enough people have received enough touch points with bitcoin that they will convert to users um obviously what i'm doing here with this podcast you have a show you're educating your clients and the people you work with at the bank like has the information uh been distilled uh to a point where it's very easy for people to grok bitcoin relatively quickly and then has that distilled information been

distributed among enough people and are we approaching that social tipping point where the brand awareness and the understanding of bitcoin is such where people feel more confident holding it and then obviously you have these demand factors which have a profound effect on supply where you have all these potential demand drivers pulling supply off the market for a considerable amount of time which would increase the the floor of any subsequent cycle moving forward those are the things i'm thinking about and if the combination of those things is perfect you can envision a scenario which we do not have these rapid run-ups and 80 crashes yeah yeah i I mean, if we really are at this suddenly tipping point, I think we can only say in hindsight, you know, because that's always, always only possible, like with more data, so to say.

But I have a feeling, as you said, you know, you laid out all these reasons. I have a feeling myself that we could be at this tipping point because like something that comes to mind is when I talk to my friends, you know, and they have, I've already talked to them about Bitcoin in 2017. 2017 and 2018 and then again in 2021 you know but they were still kind of not understanding what bitcoin really is they they really saw it as some sort of speculative vehicle you know that it was going up and going down and they they maybe held it themselves and then kind of sold it again but nowadays at least okay it's anecdotally and it's really my friends and obviously they have been following me and that's why it's it's been dawning on them you know but they kind of are yeah now i get it you know it's this supply which is ultimately scarce you know and one thing that

i feel has also done a tremendous job of educating people and i feel like it's has only been around this cycle is this is this story of storing your your your your time and energy in something which is uh like absolutely scarce you know i feel like in 2021 or 2020 or or even before we haven't talked about it in these simple terms you know it's probably props to you guys jack maulers other people breed love you know who have really fostered this idea of hey you you you go out to work you earn your money you know and you have been storing it in something which can be diluted you know which and even if it's if it's not fiat itself you know real estate everything else everything else has sort of a tendency to to be to be like that more units are being created

and with bitcoin this just doesn't work you know and this is such an easy story i think people now get this you know because they have heard this already and then combining it with this you know okay i see i really get this i want to store something like this uh for the long term uh my energy then always if bitcoin kind of comes down and i've seen it in in the last six months where it was kind of choppy you know where a lot of people approached me and they were like okay if it's now going down to 50 i will buy for sure and i don't know if they had that's i mean they can only they can always tell me you know and it's it's actions that speak louder than words but i feel like just that these people have been arguing like this kind of shows me there might be or it

be close to this tipping point but yeah then again it's just anecdotally and we'll only know in his side yeah and it's so multivariate too because what we just described are factors that are sort of internal to bitcoin then you have these external factors which the debt situation you look at the yield curve the long end of the yield curve here in the united states it's it's pumping um which would signal that people either think there's gonna be insane amounts of inflation or or insane amounts of growth in the U.S. that can stomach that inflation. And obviously here in the United States,

and I think everybody, many people are feeling this globally, they intuitively understand what inflation is now because they've seen it hit their pockets over the last three years specifically. And so you have that external factor of either runaway sovereign debt situation or price inflation that is materially affecting the quality of life of individuals around the world and that's another forcing function where

you have this problem and you finally recognize the problem it was a slow burn for many decades but now it's a faster burn you're like what is going on you can only understand the solution once you identify the problem and i think externally people are identifying this problem too it's all long into a very multivariate but i could we're trying to back into super cycle here Like this is how I would back in the super cycle is describing these multivariate variables and they sort of seem to be coalescing at a perfect time. Yeah.

Yeah, for sure. And that's the other thing I think whether it's a sovereign nation, these credit products, micro strategy, that's another new factor within the market of Bitcoin that I don't think people really appreciate is that these are demand drivers that are pulling supply off for longer durations.

It's not speculative traders trying to increase their fiat wealth. These are people using Bitcoin as collateral for long periods of time, which is just a completely different dynamic in the market as well. Yeah, exactly. I haven't thought about this, but that's true. I mean, it used to be really like the traders, you know, you were holding Bitcoin, going in and out, yeah, like on exchanges. But nowadays, the more we get these players like Micro Strategies and these people with huge conviction, then I think, yeah, you will. Yeah, exactly. You will have ever more like of this liquid supply moving off the markets, you know, and just being stowed away.

And it needs significantly higher prices to be to be kind of put back onto the markets. and and maybe at some of them or even like yeah i don't have any attention to sell because that's always what i'm asking myself you know what would i be selling it for yeah just again fiat but then what will i do with this amount of fiat you know and and maybe only if you have really something in mind that you want to kind of um do and and yeah then then you have a reason to sell but if if not this is really a question that uh i'm i have been grappling with for quite some time you know and and as you said the more we have these people yeah the the bigger the pressure will be or the less i mean amount of or supply there will be on the markets available yeah that

that's for sure yeah i made a somewhat tongue-in-cheek and it was prefaced as tongue-in-cheek because it does sound too crazy like i my uh my price target for this bull run like i could see us going as high as like into like the mid like past a million dollars go up to like 1.5 1.8 million dollars if things get really crazy what like considering everything we've been discussing do you have any price targets or idea do you ever give price targets or ideas around where it could go yeah well i mean not not fixed not specifically as well i mean um obviously at the bank we have been trained to kind of not not do this and and i i did it once you know in a swiss newspaper and then like the next day the bank ceo was knocking at my door and like hey dude maybe we have to kind

be more uh cautious because like we as as as having the customers fiduciaries you know they they could be coming back to us and and kind of telling us what did you say here but i mean generally yeah for me it's i don't know it could be going anywhere you know because as i said the um the chips are off the table now uh with with with trump having moved in and i feel like um the next target will probably be gold itself you know which would be around i don't know 500 600 dollars 600 000 per bitcoin and and then yeah in the end it's probably the treasury market that we're eyeing and then we will have a lot more upside as well so um i think uh not sure about this cycle but uh i'll take it as it comes so to say yeah no like you said we'll only ever know in

hindsight and that's the other factor that plays into my super cycle analysis if we're backing into it i'm not saying it's happening the 1.8 million dollar prediction was tongue-in-cheek we'll not be surprised but tongue-in-cheek probably not going to happen but like you said we'll only know in hindsight and backing into the super cycle theory how it would materialize like you have market participants who have been in bitcoin for a while get conditioned to expect these four-year cycles and then the suddenly moment happens and the four-year cycles just aren't there anymore and so you're sort of taught over time it's my third or fourth cycle now to expect these four-year waves of an influx of users and the price running up in a crash and

rinse repeat someday if bitcoin does what we think it can do that's simply not going to happen anymore yeah for sure yeah interesting times interesting time for sure yeah i mean yeah again and that's what i find so interesting about bitcoin like intuitively obviously price is something i'm interested in and then i i used to be one of these guys who's always saying well let's not talk about price you know because it's not important and it kind of dawned on me just in in recent uh months as well that yeah bitcoin price is important you know bitcoin is about number go up because eventually this is really what it's been designed for as well you know because it is this 21 million limit you know and then it's probably yeah it's good that we

acknowledge this or at least that's how i think about it you know that uh it is pure money and And that way, it's really made to absorb all of this fiat flood which is out there. And then, obviously, price is a big driver and something that people should be caring about. Not saying that there's other things which are also very interesting, like technologically, you know, that there are a lot of advancements. And, obviously, the whole entire philosophical, societal wrangle that comes with it, you know. and which then again but for me kind of also hinges on price you know a lot of things that i've been contemplating i've also been reading or writing i would say on a book you know and we have this one chapter where we kind of also um think about how bitcoin um will will change

society and and it always came down back to price you know if price keeps on appreciating a lot more people will think about it and a lot more things will make sense a lot more products will make sense you know also michael strategy if or michael saylor if he's honest a lot of his assumptions are really built upon the assumption that the price is rising and i think it's just fine you know but uh so this is something which is interesting kind of um you know factoring this in at some point or in some parts the price is really important in some part it's also more than the price it's this dual thing you know where i never really sure some days some that some days i feel like the price is more important and i feel so excited about it some days i feel like that's

not important because the other aspects are way more important and it's really this mixture of both that kind of make it so interesting so uh yeah that's kind of how how i also think about out price not about like quite quantitative targets but more uh the importance of price and and just uh how it interacts with with all the things we're we're projecting into bitcoin as well yeah and it it does effectuate this the self-fulfilling prophecy where bitcoiners have a view of the future and where they would like to take the world um by leveraging their bitcoin not leveraging up but like using bitcoin to make the world a better place and i think what we started the conversation on is a perfect example that the presidential election in the u.s

and the fact that the idea of a bitcoin strategic reserve is even on the table i would argue and i think many others would argue is a product of the fact that bitcoin price got to a certain point where individual bitcoiners had enough wealth to donate to particular politicians and get in the room to paint the picture of bitcoin and help with policy where like you may not care about political power obviously the the libertarian many in the libertarian circle not all will say that oh it's not worth playing the game don't vote like just change it via markets but you may not care about political power political power cares about you and i think this election is the first in which bitcoin or some of us at least recognize that and use bitcoin to get in the room to get

bitcoin policy on and again the self-fulfilling prophecy is as you do that and you get the guy you convince the government to buy bitcoin the price is going to go up even more and then you have this number go up enables you to build the future that you that you want um but yeah exactly yeah no that's that's true i mean for me it was always i was always i was also growing up as a true libertarian you know and then at some point i was a classical philosophical anarchist you know really uh disguised or not not liking government you know that much and really uh disgust that's what i wanted to say you know about government and what's happening but then as you grow older um i mean yeah your perspective kind of changes but nowadays what's so great i

I mean, I still get to be some sort of libertarian, you know, which is really also anchored in, as we discussed in the beginning, you know, market-driven tendencies and developments like Bitcoin, like prediction markets, like all of these types of things, you know. But at the same time, you have this tool now that you can wield and try to make government better, maybe at the margins, you know, because I was always like, if you are this philosophical anarchist, in the end, if I look back, my real world impact was probably quite diminished and quite small, you know. And then I always had the argument, yeah, if you if none of us is like a philosophical anarchist, you know, then the mind of people never changes. And then we're all always things are going to stay the same. But I kind of backed away from this theory because I think, yeah, it is important that we act in the real world and make changes at the margins probably. And now we just get to do it with Bitcoin, you know, and that's what gives me so much hope. You know, if I if Bitcoin weren't around and I would have to dabble in politics and try to change things, I mean, I would be a less a lot less like enthusiastic, you know, if it weren't for Bitcoin. But nowadays, there's like this interesting mixture, you know, where, as you said, there's Bitcoin, the tool, it can help you, you can kind of leverage it to kind of change the system.

and now we're seeing it playing it we're seeing it play out in real time probably with this election that just happened yesterday so that's that's certainly again something which i find quite interesting yeah we're gonna win pesco we're gonna win this was fun any uh any final thoughts you think we should leave the freaks with before we wrap up here well uh no i think all has been said thanks a lot for having me and we'll see i think the next few days are going to be interesting i hope that we're going to have a free ross announcement soon by the trump campaign this would be another great example you know of of how we could actually change the world at the margin you know because like it would just be amazing to kind of pardon

somebody like him bring him out of government of prison you know and then also donate a whole bunch of bitcoin to him that he will never have to work again and so then it would just be like us in conjunction with these people at government making somebody's life again a lot better and then i would say this is already has already been worth it uh this this whole thing that we're doing here so uh yeah it would would be great to hear something like this in the next few days weeks so i have my fingers crossed that we're not going to get disappointed here yeah it's going to be fun it's already fun this is going to be an incredible year for for big winners everywhere for the industry seems like for the united states too and hopefully for ross albrecht um free ross

yeah there exactly peace and love freaks Thank you.