TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #604: Tariffs Expose the Euro Banking Fraud with Tom Luongo

Episode Date: April 7, 2025

Marty sits down with Tom Luongo to discuss the impact of Trump's tariffs. Tom Luongo on Twitter: https://x.com/TFL1728Tom Luongo's Website: https://tomluongo.me/ 0:00 - Intro 0:36 - Breaking down the tariffs 13:24 - Fold & Coinkite 15:01 - Trump and Bessent’s messaging 19:11 - EU and British psyops 30:33 - Red tape is falling, corporate press floundering 36:47 - Unchained Event 37:12 - Helping American economy 39:39 - Debt based colonialism, financial warfare 48:00 - Closing the arbitrage 55:33 - Prioritising the correct enemies 1:01:15 - Trump media strategy 1:08:25 - Overthrowing managerial class 1:14:52 - Biggest risk is a forced war 1:19:38 - Deshittification 1:23:56 - Bitcoin and mining Shoutout to our sponsors: Fold https://tftc.io/fold Coinkite https://coinkite.com Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

You've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free. When you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts. So it's all acting like safe haven. I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. i mean that's part of the bull case for bitcoin if you're not paying attention you probably should be tom uh are you having fun yet always even when i'm not having fun i'm having fun i mean it's you know i i it's funny marty i i i get up i

do the thing and every time somebody asks me how you doing i'm like another great day in trump's new america like that's all i'm saying like and and i'm and i'm doing that just to get every just to remind everybody like everybody rocks take a pill it's it's not it doesn't all has to be rome doesn't need to be fixed in a day it's actually as a matter of fact it's more fun if it isn't fixed to the day it's more fun to like string them along and then and then you know slam them it's actually more fun that way so well that's been the most perplexing thing this week everybody throwing their arms up in the air over tariffs like oh my god it's like he's literally been saying this he campaigned on this for a year i know it's like it's like oh my god no i know it

is it's really funny i i just checked the the the dow closed i was actually expecting a better a better uh i was expecting a bump into the clothes this afternoon i'm actually surprised that um uh that we we closed down over 2 000 points today but to be honest with you it's a good thing like i i you know i hate to i know there's a lot of people losing their ass right now but like you know the margin calls come they do what they do and this is what happens if you're over levered so um but it has to happen because they need to drive the long end of the yield curve down and they told everybody that this is what they were going to do and then they did it and then the chinese responded in a exactly how you would almost i mean it's funny

the chinese announcement this morning i think is what actually sent the market down into the close of the week but the big question then is you know is that even a little bit of kayfabe because or is it really that you know xi is panicking because he's in trouble politically and uh and he's not sure what to do it's it's all up in the air right now and i think that the best thing we can do is not overreact it's the stock market the stock market is supposed to do things like this we're not used to it because we're used to the magic money tree and all the usa id money and all this and all that just going out there and then liquefying all this and uh the reality is is that um you know and again i know the common refrain is to blame the fed on this and i'm not

i'm not doing my hey i'm going to be a fed apologist thing here that's not what i'm doing but as you realize that after you listen to musk talk and he shows you the you know the 14 computers with the magic money button you realize that what what that that um uh admission by elon or that reveal by england is that we have a money creation engine we have a tax collection engine and we have a budgeting um engine and none of them talk to each other these are we would normally think that these are handled like a company would or somebody would where it would be you know that the money would flow into the same department that then you know writes the reports of how it's being spent and then you know and everybody's it's all one system no these are three separate

databases completely and you know the numbers that they bandy around like capitol hill for the budget the amount of money that the treasury is actually spending and whatever the the revenue department is collecting those three things aren't they they have nothing to do with each other and so So when you have a system like that, there are no checks and balances, which means that they can just keep pushing the make more money button in the Treasury Department, and then everybody has to react to it. And then, oh, by the way, they blame the Fed on the back end. And I'm like, hmm, I wonder why that is. And you have Jerome Powell. it seems like i'm sure you caught uh quotes from his interview this morning and probably watched

it in totality but he it seems like today i was watching it he feels like he's in a position where it's obvious that that's happening he's like it is not my problem it is not he was asked he was asked point blank like are you going to lower rates uh and print money he's like i don't feel compelled to i don't i don't feel like we're in a rush to do that and somebody from the crowd yelled really you're not in a rush he was like yeah we're not in a rush and i think that's like a an implicit acknowledgement of what you just described like there's problems over there that need to be fixed and i was doing this last night i think you hopped in um the thread momentarily but you're like if you zoom out on the 10 year going back to 85 or excuse me 75 i believe and

you look at and i was just doing left side of the bell curve caveman brain sort of ta and it looks like we're coming into like a secular bear market in the 10 year again and uh with all the efforts of trump a percent since the inauguration they've done a good job of of getting it down materially it was below three percent for most of the day i checked right before we hopped on it was hovering around four i'm not sure if it's below four again but you can imagine a scenario in which jerome powell's like something's gonna break here and i don't want to be the one that basically leads to the implicit default of the dollar system by lowering rates printing a bunch of money like it's not going to be onus the onus is on the fiscal side to figure this out well he's been

saying that for years and this is part of my this has been part of my argument as to why i don't think powell was you know was complicit in whatever there was that was going on during the administration right it was clearly that you know gallon at treasury and powell at the fed were not on the same uh team now as far as where he is right now and i know that trump came out and said jerome you got to cut rates now blah blah blah you know cutting rate and i think trump may be right ultimately about that but you know even a quarter point i just think you know from powell's perspective cutting a quarter point here um all that's going to do is restore the upwardly scoping yield curve that he worked so hard to get before Trump took power.

And, you know, but there are more, there's more going on here than just Jerome Powell and Donald Trump. That's a story that wants to be created. And Trump likes to create stories. We know that the story is far more complicated than that. We know that the story is that there are people out there who shall remain nameless, but their initials are davos that want to you know manipulate our yield curve to sell a narrative they've been doing it for four years they should you know they're well hell they've been doing it forever

but now they've explicitly been doing it to their benefit um you know in order to effectively close this or in order to you know close the the gate and and and destroy what's left of the uh the u.s fiscal and monetary policy during the last administration or junta as a case may be and you know why would they stop doing that because trump's in power as a matter of fact they would double down on that strategy right i mean it's the only thing that makes any sense to me so when i coming into this week i've been screaming to my patrons and and every once in a while when i do a podcast and like understand that they're selling the recession narrative by selling their stock of tens and thirties, 10 years and 30 years and buying ones and twos and creating a, you

know, creating that dip in the yield curve and really selling the long end and really, you know, playing the dip in the, in the belly of the yield curve to sell that, oh, we're gonna have a terrible recession, which, you know, over the next year or two, which again, i mean it's an easy sell right it's not like it's a hard narrative to sell but they're clearly like no really it's gonna happen and i'm like and they need to do that if they want to affect you know they're going to sell the 30 buy dollars and then sell the dollars to buy twos and that way they can keep they can play they can play games with the euro they can play games in with the pound they've got massive stock that they have bought over the last three years they've got all this ammunition

so we're going to find out if i'm right about that when the next tse report comes out for february right and um we'll see if there's an inkling of that because we've what we have seen is that the stock in europe hasn't really gone up you know in in q4 they were there was really it was just kind of the buying had stopped and now we were kind of flatlined so now is it going to roll over are we going to see them having you know dumped a couple hundred billion dollars with the treasuries over the next three months we're going to find that out three months in arrears of course like we always would through the tic data so and this that gives you plenty of time by the way of course to sell a narrative and but it's not enough time to sell an actual recession

right now you think about it so i don't know man like to me you have to factor that into whatever it is that you think you're seeing because there are plenty of people out there who want to sell a particular narrative in order to keep the focus on the united states and ignore everything that's happening over here because every time you know because again everything that i watch screams to me that the markets are choosing the united states over europe credit spreads between the us and germany are narrowing right the us german 10-year spread i think is going to close this weekend around 1.4, 1.45%. Same thing. And the two-year spreads much wider than that. It's like 1.8. But again, this is Lagarde holding onto something that's necessary. Now, the two and the 10-year

spread aren't even, they've been mirroring each other for years. So whatever the two is and the 10, if there's any air between them, it usually closes very quickly. So the bond traders have been holding those spreads very tightly and having the German yield curve mirror the American yield curve and a very tight spread across duration for years. And then since the USAID money went away, now all of a sudden what was a tight spread or if it got out of whack for a couple of weeks or whatever, it would close if the two was significantly lower than the 10 than one would correct towards the other. Now, it's been sitting here at 40 basis points for like two and a half weeks now, and it's

the widest I've ever seen it. So clearly, there's something going on here. And then we take it one step further, and I finally looked at German-Italian spreads 10-year. And I noted over this four-year period, since they affect three-year periods, since the of the feds sort of raising interest rates we all sort of coming off the zero bound italian debt has has has vastly outperformed german debt like the spread was over two like two was like 275 basis points three years ago it's now a hundred

now factor all that in when you start thinking about what you're seeing out of georgia maloney what you're seeing out of trump what you're seeing you know clearly there's they're driving he's driving i think powell and trump and i think they're driving wedges here um and uh they forced lagarde to into this financial repression scheme and they're gonna blow her up and i can just see i can just smell it and what we're seeing right now is well we need to focus everybody on the oh my god the stock market is failing whatever dude it's like we were at a pde of like 38 for christ's sake you think it's the highest since you know it's a dot-com bubble yeah no it's almost as bad as the dot-com bubble dot-com bubble i think at a high of like 48

48 yeah something it's at right it's in the same stratosphere i mean honestly anything over 20 is is is obscene stuff freaks do you have a credit card are you getting cash back or airline points or points for some other service guess what those are shit coins you want to be stacking bitcoin i have some groundbreaking news for you the team at fold has finally released the bitcoin rewards credit card they have a wait list i'm going to be distributing the cards later this year so you want to get on the wait list fold plus members are going to get unlimited two percent bitcoin back on this credit card if you get on the wait list they're up to two hundred thousand dollars in prizes they're going to be given out so get on it as quickly as possible go to tftc.io slash fold

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power user of bitcoin like i am if you're running a business on a bitcoin standard if you're just a bitcoin or wants to secure your bitcoin get the most secure hardware wallet on the market go get the cold card queue it's a beautiful thing when it comes to like another like is something that would signal to me that the trump admin is highly aware of this and they're playing if i hate it's an overplayed term but like 40 chests if you will like trump and jerome and besant that triumvirate and i think trump and besant are playing good cop bad cop where trump will come out it's a fed it's a fed and then you have besant going on like tucker carlson today going on the all-in podcast a couple weeks ago lutnik doing it like i think to combat that recession narrative and the potential

weaponization of these treasury assets that are held by european entities they're being hyper communicative um with the public about this and i think they had to choreograph the stock market and everything to basically make people not freak out as much even though there is a lot of people freaking out but most of them seem pretty low iq well you know it's funny we have we all forgotten that scott percent was there when george soros was playing his games in this in the 70s you know 80s and the 90s like it's not like he doesn't know what the game plan is he doesn't know what their strategy is doesn't know how they operate and they really only have one operation it's the same operation they use over and over again which is to you know which is to destroy

commercial banks and then roll the power up into the into the into the central bank and one of the interesting things about and you just you know you play the markets in the current and the bond markets and currencies in order to make that happen and push it and push markets in the meltdown over a policy that you disagree with they did this to japan they did it to the that is the english they've done it and now and they've done it at times with the americans in the past every time there's a big fight crisis we see you know a whole bunch of banks go under get consolidated you know we get consolidation of the banking industry we've lost two-thirds of our banks since the late 70s where it had over 14 000 commercial banks in the united states now

we're down to under 5 000 or just around 5 000. um and um but there comes a point where you say okay well if they know all this and they're the guys in charge you think they're just gonna like stand by and let them do what they always they've always done in the past it doesn't look that doesn't it doesn't look to me like it doesn't make any sense i mean so i i would say you're right certainly that they've done what they've needed to do to say look it's you know you shouldn't really worry about the stock market i think one of the things that trump retweeted a short video that was out was running out there this morning about hey look like 94 of the stock market is owned by eight percent of the people what i'm not that's not what this is about you know like i don't

and warren buffett's already in cash and yada yada yada so like you should guys we were gonna Like we were going to let the stock market go because it's about, we have to deal with this like massive, you know, um, um, tranche of treasuries. We had to deal with this mess that Janet Yellen left us, which I was screaming about the entire time this was going on. You know, this like that she was, you know, issuing ones and twos and not issuing tens and twenties. And like, and now we have to deal with this and that's all that stuff.

And all that stuff was, was issued at, you know, four and a half and higher. And now we've got the 10 year under four and you can get that, you know, rolled out at under 4%. It's a big, that's a, that's a big deal. And you can't fix this, you know, with a couple of, you can't fix this with, you know, waving your hands, putting a couple of people in jail and, you know, it's not going to, you can't unfit, you can't unfuck us in a hundred days.

It's just not possible. You're going to have to watch the process play itself out. And, you know, the interesting part about what comes next, I think, is, you know, what does he do to say, OK, we're going to stabilize this now? And that's where we're going to start getting into what assets are they going to throw in the sovereign wealth fund? What are they going to do with gold? What are they going to do with all the housing equity? Well, the European Union is out there saying that they're going to mobilize. I love the use of the term mobilize.

um the excess savings a a phrase that only okay only a communist like christine lagarde what do you think that means it means they're going to bail these people in they're going to hand them friggin they're going to hand them like perpetual bonds at zero at 25 basis points they're going to steal their wealth you know what that's what they're going to do because they already know they're trapped right i was um i was actually chatting with grok about this the other day i you know by the way i'm i'm now firmly convinced that grok is going to be our ai because what other ai in the world is being trained faster than grok on all the data that's coming that's that's flowing through twitter slash x on a daily basis right but i was talking to grok about this

the other day because i was working on my uh on my newsletter for newsmax and i was like trying to explain what i think is coming with the eu which is i think that they're getting ready to rug pull the entire world like i think they're their whole not their entire world but their people like they've already they've announced all the bits and pieces and then they're just going to do it and i said okay grok i'm going to lay some stuff out for you i'm going to leave out some stuff that i know you know but because i've had because of other conversations that grok has had with other people that i know about a variety of things i said i'm just going to throw these these things out at you one by one okay so now we're we're we you know so there's the savings

of the investment union do we have any details on that do me a favor go do a deep dive tell me what we know we know nothing we know the name of it and we know that it's going to mobilize excess savings we know nothing else about it like grok couldn't find like there are links to pdfs that they say they've published that grok couldn't find it even went so far as to check variations on the on the url that just because they might have typed it in wrong or whatever like you know like couldn't find it so they're hiding what it is whatever it is they think they're going to do about this thing that's one we add in that the announcement of the digital euro in october and um and all the military spending that they want to do the rearm europe project right this

thing when you put all that together it tells you a couple of things and the fact that the germans have now blown past their budgetary rules and are going to are going to rearm like it's 1939 or something and i'm not hitting when i say that because that's what's going on here now the germans are sending troops permanently stationed to pull to the lithuanian border border you know in the in the lithuania like this you know martin armstrong's been banging his shoe on the table about this stuff he's right marty's completely right about this and you can see all the pieces i said grock tell me where i'm wrong like do the solve i think this is what they're going to do tell me i'm wrong what what are their options if given this situation grock was like

well we they could pivot to china and try and do more of their trade that way because they obviously the united states is now they've got a problem because grock was brought up the euro dollar system and the fact that the euro dollar system is now he brought it up like that it's it's a lot less liquid than it was before and i'm like the deuce you say watching this girl by and i'm like huh okay someone else's i'm not okay grok's not stupid now i know grok has i don't even think grok's ever read my blog to be honest with you so i'm like having this conversation with this thing and i'm like and it came to the exact same conclusion i did and i said okay well now take all these other things into consideration um and tell me

you know what happens when trump puts tariffs on and then we do this and then we do that and he's like they have no other option they have to do what they're what you're what you're expecting to do which is to one either create a false flag in order to force the united states in you know i started talking about the war in russia and this that and everything else and i brought up collateral right the fact that they have no energy collateral they've been cut off from um they've cut themselves off from basically american energy and russian energy we have um north african energy is is getting is getting taken away from them thanks to earth again early on staying in power and having moved into syria has cut them off from trying to get you

know access to middle eastern energy right and become the new overlords of the of the middle east and they've failed completely at that because neither the russians nor the americans over the the last 10 years have allowed them to do this by the way again i'm going to remind everybody that's why trump canceled the jcpoa it was to stop france from making major energy deals with iran okay this was important because then that would give the eu a lifeline out and would allow them to continue to get to get the collateral they need in order to then continue their their you know um their integration with the global architecture of the wto the who the the imf the you know all of that the the un and all of it because they they know he knows that that

was the plan and it's so i'm like and it's so obvious in hindsight that he understood all this then but he didn't talk about it in these terms he never did he just blamed obama for everything and he blamed obama for everything because that's an easy sell so he knows his audience really well and uh i just don't think we ever gave him enough credit for this stuff including myself i don't think i gave him enough credit for this back then so yeah i mean in europe in france i think maybe across the whole eu they're they're saying go buy a prepper bag where we're going to provide you with one yeah no yeah that's another data point that i think i threw a crock as well like i had this conversation a week and a half ago and that's now gone right

it's like whatever stick it in a lot stick 20 of it in long-term memory and then the rest of it gets kind of lost but yeah i know you're right like they're telling people um build a proper bag because we're gonna we're all right they're literally telling you they're going to crash their own economy they've told you that this is what their plan is they've said this before you know and you know they bailed in greece they bailed in cyprus i mean they've uh in the past they've already had the the legal network set up for this and as i've been saying over and over and over again everything that has been laid at the feet of the united states our fiscal nightmare our lack of you know a lack of discipline and all the rest of it right all the the the stories and that

have been built, and I'm now going to just frankly call it gaslighting, the gaslighting of the idea that the United States is broke and is non-functional and should be put into receivership and broken up for parts is a British psyop, or better, a Davosian psyop. If you don't like my invocation of the British, go right ahead and call it Davosian. I don't give a fuck. Pick your bad guy of choice.

It doesn't matter. It's a psyop. Why? Because as Besant has been telling us, we have trillions of and Trump trillions of dollars worth of assets that we cannot bring to the table because of dumb environmental policy or dumb regulation or dumb this or the insane. How about that video of of of of Jon Stewart being told the the permitting requirement to get broadband? The 14 points. Right. It took like 20 minutes to explain. right to explain it to him and then he's like oh my god oh my god dude now imagine what it's like to try and get a refinery built i know people in california not even only california but doing oil and gas exploration

you have to do like environmental surveys on whether or not you will disrupt the habitat of the hornback lizard it takes time and you you get it done you pay you get it done you send it to the people who are supposed to review it and take like six months for them to get back to you and it's like all right they're too busy jerking off in front of their zoom calls um dude i can't get my i can't get my county road my the county road that i live off of and i live on a private easement off county road it's just a little dirt road that really needs to have the water drained off of it during rainstorms because it kind of rains a little bit in florida right they're not allowed to move the water there's nothing but planet pines but they're not allowed

to move the water they can cut they can cut drainage ditches along the side of the road and leave the road high and then have big drainage ditches dude we get 14 we can give like 12 inches of rain in an hour like it's insane like you know what i mean like it doesn't work that way and it's sugar sand so it turns into a sloppy mess and they spend more money taking a bringing a guy down from Lake City to run a grader over our road so that the school bus can get down the road every once in a while. If it wasn't for the school bus, forget it. We'd never get a road graded. But it costs them more money to regrade the road, but they can't move any of the dirt because they can't allow the water to leave because we haven't done an environmental assessment policy. It's insane.

It's water, and it needs to go somewhere. And we're just going to let it sit there? Meanwhile, people's cars are flooding out. Their brakes are being destroyed. Their U-joints are wearing out. Like, you know, the hundreds of thousands of dollars that's cost all of us to keep our cars running down our little dirt road is insane. Like, it could, you know, like, unnecessary. But that's just one little. And that's in a low-tax county.

Honestly, it's in one of the reddest counties of Florida. But this is Florida rules. that were put in place by a shitbag GOP that takes their marching orders from the national GOP who were in cahoots with the DNC to destroy America. Like, this is the way this shit works. And honestly, at the end of the day, every person I talk to, and I'm like,

I explained this, I've said this before, I talk to, and they find out what I do, and they're like, okay, so I don't care about anything else. When can we start shooting them? That's the only question I ever get asked. and i'm like that's between you and whatever god it is that you you know think is is judging you in the afterlife i guess and and the state of florida but yeah i i get your frustration um i we all drive trucks for a reason you know you know we drive trucks and even then the trucks

get you know get the you know even their suspensions are designed for this stuff it's terrible yeah so you're hopeful all that red tape is going to be ripped away i think that i think that that is the that that's the that's also what's ticking away in the background while we're all focused on tariffs if there's other stuff that's happening right and and you know i i certainly hope so i i know that you know stephen miller has made the point explicitly like we don't have to challenge these rules in court and then have them overturned because several because chevron's no longer all these cases that were adjudicated on the chevron are null and void they're gone they're not they don't have to be re-adjudicated they don't have to be you know

re-adjudicated and then a new and new judgments we don't need to like retry all these cases they've all those judgments have been rendered null and void we don't have to follow any of these rules anymore so but you know in some ways i i i wonder sometimes whether or not trump understands that that's a bigger battle to fight than the tariff thing but i don't know i think i think what he's constantly doing is he's shifting in the venue that he wants to fight in in order to keep them off balance i think that's what he's doing i don't know whether it's a good strategy or not at this point i can't quite tell i'm more than happy to to to you know played the fifth on that one like i don't know if this is all going to be a winning strategy for him um i'd like

to believe that it is but you know it might it might actually not work for him if he cannot start putting scalps on the table i think objectively at least in the last month he's made the mainstream media look utterly stupid and two specific examples stick out to me one where everybody was up in arms because that quote-unquote innocent guy got sent to el salvador and was it an ms-13 and then it came out they were saying it wasn't an ms-13 there was like no actually or the other one um no no he's actually in the gang like we need he was here legally we needed to to send him he's a he's a gang member and then number two at the tariffs literally within 24 hours you had people like ford came out was like all right we're gonna start manufacturing cars

back in the u.s you have paper mills spinning up in maine and it's like it's like it's not like these guys don't have we have automobile lines that they've shuttered over the last you know 10 15 years like you know i'm like he should i know that he's like frozen the cafe rules he should but he's got a feckless congress that came that won't do anything because i i know these guys don't believe yet that he's got the power i think to um uh that he's got the same power to outlast them so that he hasn't quite proven yet i in my mind i think that's this is the way why congress is acting the way they're acting and um they still think that they can control him and then just ride him out that's davos is clearly davos's plan um and just wait him out and that's

what's going on in europe they're clearly acting like i've had this on you know i've heard this from half a dozen people that they just inside the room he's talking to marty armstrong about this i was talking to other people and they're also the same thing like inside the room they just think they can wait trump out and they don't realize what's coming they're going to get hit over the head and they're going to they're going to wake up one morning and they're not going to have a european union and then they're not going to know what to do um these are not yet these people are not jazz musicians this is the best i think the best metaphor for what we're dealing with we're dealing with people who are at best um you know third string violinists and orchestra

know how to read a chart and follow and follow directions from the conductor and they have no ability to improvise they have no they don't actually even understand music theory at all enough to even begin to think about how they would improvise you know and um and you're dealing with someone with like trump who can't even speak in a direct sentence because he's playing you know he's as he puts it weaving in and out of various topics in order to paint a picture and um you know and he just drives him completely batty and that's his and he knows this is his greatest strength against he knows that they have no idea how he's going to attack them next and sometimes i i think i can see what's been happening um like every once in a while he lets

the pressure off of them and lets them talk for a little bit have you noticed he does it a little bit because he needs to figure out okay so what how are they going to attack because i'm sure that they've got a flow chart i'm sure like he and the mill and whether trump has got the is part of this or not but he knows that his staff around them like guys like miller and others have you know they've worked out their flow chart of okay well if they we do this and they do that then we do this right series of moves like if you okay you take the three wood space well i'm going to take the two reads and you're going to go you know find a game of a wrinkle and we're going to do that game and then that's the way this round is going to work itself out um but every once in a while

you got to see what move they're going to make right how are they going to respond and then you know okay well they're going to respond like that i mean we know what their decision space is because everything's opposite day in their world whatever trump does they do the opposite right but yeah there's a there's a decision space in there the definition of opposite is a little fungible so i don't know like and then they wait and then they go oh you're going to do that you're not going to cop to that great we're going to watch we're going to watch you do x y and z and now we're going to we're going to go in this and then we're going to make this decision and we're going to hit you like this and trump's really good at that that's what trump's um i think that's where

trump's skill set is the is is is the highest is that he understands that once he's started the process of quote-unquote making the deal or negotiating or playing the game however you to put it whatever metaphor you want he he's really good at going oh that's the state of the game board we do this and he's really good at it and i got to give him credit um yeah as a guy who does the same thing like on a regular basis that's my that's my entire life right is to do that as well and so i think that uh you know i recognize it the new administration is pushing hard for government efficiency but can elon musk and doge fix the dollar on april 16th phd economist peter sanange explains why bitcoin is the most important tool for government efficiency and how the

principles underlying the global shift towards sound money can help you protect and grow your generational wealth register now at unchained.com slash rhr that's unchained.com slash rhr the order of operations and the speed with which they're executing on this is important i mean with the tariffs i mean just look at look where oil is it's down at like 60 a barrel and may not be good for oil producers but i think for the american citizen and attacking the meme of inflation's eye uh that's good it's gonna be cheaper to fill up your gas tank yep uh tariffs domestic food production is probably going to stay domestic it's going to bring down grocery bills we've already seen eggs which was the big meme egg prices are at all-time highs yep well they killed

they killed a couple hundred million chickens and then they said oh and it's trump's fault that you know we killed a couple hundred million chickens and now there are no eggs like yeah and so i think domestically like despite the uproar about the tariffs this week which i think many people are beginning to come around like maybe they're not that bad even people were skeptical of them i think it's becoming clear that people who became tariff experts overnight are uh abject fools and then again the communication i think percent particularly we talked about europe everything going on there that's wrong with the assumption they have a grand plan to do that and i'm interested to get your thoughts on i read about this earlier this week but percent obviously

over the last year has mentioned i think there's going to be a grand economic reordering in the next four years i want to be a part of it i want to be in the room i'm an economic historian this is what i'm best at uh and then he was on tucker carlson this morning and did two things particularly called out china basically said they're in a recession quasi-depression basically signaling to the us people in the world more broadly like china it's not us this week it's china that's weak and then mentioning gold and bitcoin as stores of value and to me if we were to take take his words at the manhattan institute event last june to heart and that he really believes that there's going to be this global grand economic reordering that these are moves he's

making to sort of signal to china specifically like if we're going to do this we're going to need you at the table and so like i can paint you in a weak position publicly uh here and we can do tariff game or we can get to the table and figure out what's going on with this reordering yeah no i i think you're i think you're on it i i do think that we're staring at a global reordering like i don't think that's um i don't even think that's up for debate the bigger question i think is you know who's going to be left off the table right and i think this is the the thing that scares i i mean it's clearly it scares the french to death and this is why macron is acting the way he is he's acting like you know he's um that he's the king of europe he's trying to crown himself king

of europe and um and by doing this like it i when you when we talk about this in terms of global reordering it's it's very similar to what i've been like screaming about for years which is that the old system of creating debt and using debt as a means by which to issue currency to then you know value people's labor it's an extra it's just another form of colonialism It's all it is. And the more I think about it, the more I realize that I've always been kind of right on this thing going way, way back. I'm just thinking about where my head was, say, 10, 15 years ago.

It's very clear that this is just about the manipulation of currencies and arbitrage in order to create a durable advantage that doesn't close and such that capital shifts the capital moves in one direction and doesn't ever move back the other way and what trump and dissent are doing are saying that's no that's we're not doing that and i felt when i first started talking about thinking about powell that's what came into my head right which was that no powell's is clearly saying dollars are no longer going out and goods are coming in return. That's not a model that makes any sense because we can't protect our banking industry. I mean, I think Powell was thinking about it like a banker. We can't even protect the banking industry if we do

that, right? Because now our banks and the banks are out of control and or the central banks are out of control. The governments are out of control. So we can't even control our own monetary policy. We can't control the value of our own product. So if we're doing that, And remember, that was put into effect during Trump's first term, right, which was the beginnings of SOFR during Trump's first term. And now we finally hit the end of the last little bit of LIBOR, right? So we had LIBOR officially ended on, you know, the last contract was written on September 30th, but those were six-month contracts, synthetic LIBOR. So that ended on March 31st. it's now and and the synthetic live war contracts by the way you know they're just like agreements

between european banks well they don't have to post any collateral for this stuff they just post each other's you know fake repo you know swap contracts or repos and swaps and like it's all it's all funny money there's no call there's no collateral behind those trades so those markets are liquefied right until now trump goes out on april 2nd this is i think the timing on the system the timing is crazy the timing is kind of perfect right now they got to go out when they need dollars they got to post collateral because they got to go to where u.s they got to go to u.s bank or to the federal reserve to get it and they're and so now they got to post collateral now they to post now they got to pull from bank reserves to go this is one of the things that i talked

to grok about and actually what was interesting in that conversation with grok is that he brought that up now he brought that up because he spoke to my friends over at belchino over and over in italy about two or three weeks ago who we were chatting about this in private and they had a conversation you know like my friend marco had a conversation with them and like and with grok and so it was in his database but he immediately saw where i was going with this just i didn't even have to like i didn't even have to nudge him he brought it up he brought up the euro dollar system the end of synthetic high board at the end of this and said oh no they have to go in to get bank reserve they have to use bank reserves now to get dollars well if you think about it

it who really has been pumping the mag 7 up to hell and high to hell and gone right we have all this usaid aid money floating around we have all this ned money floating around we have all this cia dark pool money we got all this dod money we got all this department of education money this that i know that they've mapped oh the guys are now installed over to omb that they've mapped how much money is for flows out and it's probably close to two trillion dollars a year okay and i'm like i have that in the back of my head i'm like well clearly the minute now they have to go and get dollars for real and they have to post real what are they going to do they have to sell their stocks go get dollars to buy you know or they got to post to treasuries i

can do something. And I can also see them wanting to try and create a global margin call on the entire U.S. stock market to cause cascading defaults as well in order, again, I don't think we're facing nuclear war with the Russians. I don't think we're facing Trump invading or allowing israel or supporting israel to invade iran or bomb iran or anything along those lines i think that's all bluff and bluster and the israel thing is really easy erdogan's still in power in turkey that's it that's all you need to know um But the real nuclear war is financial.

It's when Europe says blackmails the entire world with a financial nuclear Armageddon saying, look, we're going to cancel our currency. We're going to bail in all our savers, cancel the currencies, cancel the debt, and make you whole with perpetual bonds europe's history is that whenever they get into trouble they choose war every freaking time first kinetic both kinetic and or financial every freaking time i got a thousand years of freaking history with these people okay so they tried really hard to get the two countries with the most physical collateral in the world across all vectors not just oil the united states and russia we control an unbelievable amount of wealth

real wealth maybe you can add in africa but like where would you rather do business the united states russia or africa clearly the united states then russia then africa in that order so the people who need the collateral are now going to try and blackmail the world i think with financial nuclear armageddon and then we see what happens and trump's already threatened them because we had the mar-a-lago accords talking about um hey why don't we just uh why don't we just settle up for the last 80 years worth of nato and all the other money that you owe us and we'll just you know we'll just give you zero percent 100 year bonds

which are worthless yeah hey he's threatened to do so and and if europe does this is the idea that causing this cascading liquidations fault in the stock market to be so globally kind of clismic they could sort of hide in the rubble and point at trump and be like it was his fault yeah it was his fault because he put tariffs on us yeah why do you think why do you think the so the next move out of the european union will be to be inconsolable about this right and say well he's putting target he's putting tariffs on us that are higher than our you know that are put 20 on them for christ's sake when these people hide behind regulations like one of the one of the things martin armstrong brought up in a blog

post he did this morning actually it was really good um i happened to read marty's blog this morning i don't read it on a regular basis but you know every couple weeks i come in to catch up and read a bunch of stuff and one of the things he said was that france and the eu in general they don't actually you know their their tariff rate is their official tariff rate is a lot lower than their effective tariff rate and because you know they they deny our our imports because of quality reasons or this or that or anything else remember going back to all the brexit talks and how the brits the brits were like losing their minds over coronated chicken you remember that shit okay it was all nonsense like oh the americans corny you know yeah you know yeah we like we

like to kill the bugs that are living on the chicken that's that takes weeks that takes a couple of days to process and you know maybe we get it's insane like the amount of unbelievable so you like so i i get it you think our food quality is shit and you're not i'm not gonna like argue with it but not on freaking chicken guys like it was just so dumb it was clearly a phrase created in an intelligence you know think tank they're like what will trigger people the most coronated chicken it's like bullshit like people like we don't use disinfectants and you don't use disinfectants in your um in your meat processing facilities i don't want to eat the fucking meat you people produce like you know what i mean like it's just it's insane but whatever

like but that's what they did and they did this in order to try and scare the brits into not leaving the eu because you know french meat because french chicken is so much higher quality than american chicken it's bullshit it's nonsense chicken it's freaking chicken for christ's sake get over yourself it doesn't have any flavor i don't you know whatever like it's but that's what they this is what these people do and it's all gaslighting and and it's part of the trade imbalance so going back to what i was saying earlier just to make sure that i like square the circle on what i was talking about why trump put the tariffs on the way he did um and is as follows what he's saying is what he's basically said is this

if we had a free market for trade right with all our major trading partners we wouldn't be running regular durable year-over-year ever-widening trade deficits because the currencies would attenuate and then the money would flow back and forth and blah, blah, blah, blah. And the free market would grind out that arbitrage. A trade surplus, like with Canada, it's $124 billion a year. That's a durable advantage created by a mix of tariffs, regulations, blah, blah, blah, all of these things. And so when you see a trade imbalance, and anytime you see any kind of arbitrage that doesn't close, it's because something's getting in the way.

So for example, go back to, let's look at when we were all talking about a year and a half ago or so between the price of gold in Chicago and London versus Shanghai. And then for a while, there was this big $40 arbitrage that was going on. And it was holding up for like weeks at a time, right? Now, normally in the gold market, like you get a short-term arbitrage play like that. Like there's a big spike in demand for gold in China. Well, then the traders in London and Chicago turn around. They buy a bunch and then they ship it.

They buy a bunch of futures contracts and then use those and post those as collateral in order to you know um trade on the shanghai contract and then close the arbitrage right that's what they'll do over there and the arbitrage will close and it doesn't take very long and you know the gold bugs will go crazy for 48 hours on twitter because oh my god something happened and you know what they're trying to do what they're really trying to do is yeah something happened i need to sell newsletters this month um when the reality is is that it's it's on market it functioning normally. There was a spike in demand. Traders came in and alleviated the supply shock, dealt with the problem, and moved it around. Now, when that arbitrage didn't close,

that meant something. And that's when Vince Lanci and I spent weeks talking about this stuff, like what that was. And our mutual friend, Eric Young, talked about this as well, which is that what was happening is that the physical gold couldn't be sourced out of the West. something was blocking the physical gold being moving from London and or Chicago to Shanghai and that's why the arbitrage stayed in place for weeks on end well get got news for you that's the metaphor for these durable trade surpluses in places like I'm not talking about a place like you know I don't know the Congo or whatever that's you know that sells a bunch of people cobalt and that's all they have they're always going to run a trade surplus with us because we they you know

we don't have anything to offer them our high-end goods we're just that's fine that's not the big that's not a big deal but our traits are our trade deficit was vietnam that's chinese dumping of textiles into vietnam and into the united states to avoid the tariff you know french wines same thing like over and over german cars same thing over and over and over again canadian oil canadian eggs canadian maple syrup that's what this is about that's what they're and so There's an entire regulatory schema that's making sure that the money flows in one direction. And while it may have a hundred reasons and the well, actually, folks on Reddit will, you know, well, actually, it's about this. And you may be right, you fucking pedantic asses.

But until we can figure out what that what those things actually are on a case by case basis and work those things out, we have a crisis. This crisis needs to be dealt with. And we're slapping a friggin tariff on them that that is going to get rid of half of that arbitrage. That's what Trump did. And by doing that, what he's now doing is saying, OK, what we're going to do now is we're going to claw back that trade surplus. and because we still have the most powerful consumer market in the world you're going to eat it because you have nowhere else to send your to send your products that as to your point marty because china is in a recession yeah and that's like i had people text me this week like this is not good tariffs aren't good like the and that was my exact point is like they need u.s consumer china specifically it's like they they need they're they're not they're not gonna

sustain their economy locally or in southeast asia and russia is probably not they need it like they need air to breathe they need it like women want need sex when they're fertile like it's this is the way it is like it's this is not this is reality folks this is not the model that's in your head this is not the textbook that you read this is not your this is not your murray Rothbard pamphlet what you know at the end of the day this is the real world and I I remind everybody that Magritte and others have you know Magritte's very famous for this you know his picture his painting of a pipe and with the statement this is not a pipe it's a picture of a pipe it's a model it's not the world go you know if you're not sure what I'm talking about

go look up Ian McGill Chris go listen to him go listen to that brilliant Scottish man talk for hour and a half about the difference between models that your left brain builds and the world you actually interact with this is the world we interact in okay there is theory and then there's real politic and real politic is a fundamentally different world and we can be guided by principle that we want free markets and we want capital to flow across borders and we want we want people to act peaceably towards each other and everything else and that's a fine and lovely and wonderful idea and then there's the people you're actually dealing with and so we'll actually we're dealing with evil freaking pedophilic vampires of old europe and how are we going to get rid and how

are we going to bankrupt them so that we can get closer to your ideal or are you just going to like are we just going to all be left libertarians from the 70s and screen the open borders like no like not with the welfare state not with the warfare state hell even rothbard like said that that was incompatible with libertarianism 40 years ago he said you know before he died like this is it's all dumb like at the end of the day remember murray like in third enthusiastically backed mac pat buchanan of all people who was in no way manner shape or form a free marketeer in terms of economic policy just to remind everybody.

In case everybody's history is a little light because your head is only full of the shit that whatever MI6 put into it last week through the DNC and EMILY's list. Get over yourself. Do you think

a critical mass of American citizens are picking this up? Yes. Go look at the numbers. on your favorability um ratings of europe they're awful for republicans and independents it's awful trump's winning he's winning the the messaging war on this because he beat them because he's attacked them across multiple vectors again not linear thinking what's he doing oh they still want war oh they want us to pay for nato and they want us to go to war oh and they're cheating on trade

oh and they're doing this oh and they're doing that and their response to everything we do is to hector us and treat us like mouth-breathing americans oh really like you're so cultured all you people ever do is go to fucking war and then ask us to bail you out after you're done after you're done doing it after you get yourself into trouble because you because you can't feel the a freaking Navy you can't build an army really like if you don't think like those training videos that come out of you know the British or the German training videos if you don't think that those aren't coming from people connected with Trump that they're not playing the 15th generation Warfare stuff like you're nuts of course they are but then again it doesn't even have to come

directly from the Trump people it can just be I mean we have the trolls on 4chan they know what yeah oh they know to do better than anybody and you have to imagine domestically the eu is just losing out because of the immigration crisis and the hb laws at least in uk ireland it seems like things are are really hitting ahead in those regards well well i i mean i think they're what they're doing is they're just doubling down into the end they're just i think this is just we don't know what else to do flood it this is like when it was clear that they took their shot at trump and missed everything we can we've figured out we've been able to piece together since then they just start spending money left and right they spent every dollar that they could they

shoved as many dollars through the magic money machines as they could on their way out the door right i think they're doing and they opened up the floodgates at the border and they did this they did all of it and they're doing and they accelerated everything it was like it's like that moment in v for vendetta when you know when john hurt screams about we have to do a full-on assault to remind the people how much they need us that see well it's the same thing we have to create as much fear and as much anxiety and we have to try and push our agenda as close to you know as close to the finishing line we got to push it over the finish line and they own no one way of doing that and that's fear yeah and more moderate yeah that's why i think the combination of

the speed of the blitzkrieg by the trump administration the over communication like their their media strategy has been incredible um in the first two months like getting on all in getting on tucker stephen miller out there explaining everything when when something pops up uh it's really impressive honestly yeah they came in they were that's what yeah and we've had mel madison and others on and i think that's the consensus it's funny the consensus contrarian view uh the contrarian view uh the contrarian view in the mainstream is the consensus consensus view in our circle which is that or i don't know if you believe this but like the whole strategy was come quick out of the gate get yields down let the start

stock market crash get it to a point roll over some of the debt and then when things have settled at a somewhat stable lower base then we unleash the economy and you have every rather quick recovery on the back end of all this perceived chaos well if you if you lead you into midterms well this is and this is where my this is where my libertarian libertarian brethren should understand it what is trump doing he's trying to liquidate the malinvestment like we're actually watching warren harding in 1920. they called him do nothing harding and they killed him by the way i'm firmly convinced they killed harding um because harding refused to do nothing during the from the depression of 1920.

libertarians use it all the time as this example all the time tom woods and pick picker they this is their this is their their their go-to right me since two guys hey look harding did nothing allowed the economy to crash and then the economy came right back roaring right back 18 months later after everybody was forced to deal with their problems and liquidate all their malinvestment get it over and done with the pain was terrible for 18 months and then we were right back to where we were in no time flat now on top of that of course we started having a sovereign debt crisis in europe we had the german hyperinflation which which general you know which helped that process out this is that's another dimension to their argument that you know they do they you know

factor that in no because they're only thinking as always they're only thinking about domestic policy and they're not looking at the entire world as a you know the capital flows across borders right um but still it's still a powerful enough argument well it's the same kind of thing what you just described i think is a is a is a similar strategy on their part and i don't even know that you know look the stock market going from the the dow going from 42 to 38 is not a crash that's a correction okay okay it's it's nine percent folks okay it's nine percent all right fine we were at a high of 45 it's fine but when this started to roll over we were really at what 43 it's five grand on four okay so it's 12 okay you want to argue with me it's 12 whether it's

15 or 12 it doesn't matter it's not enough to matter do you remember what happened like we had a lost generation or the dow didn't make a new high from 1966 to 1980 You know, do we not remember how poorly the S&P 500 performed versus everything after the dot-com bust? Why do you think, I mean, you know, whenever people ask me about, you know, what asset classes do you like outside of gold or this area? I always say Timberland. You know why? Because trees grow 8% a year. That's why.

They got really low carry costs. And in the long run, they outperform the S&P 500. But they don't always outperform the S&P 500. Why? Because the S&P 500 does this, and Timberland does this. Like, trees grow 8% a year, and you don't need to harvest them when prices are down, and there's a recession. Guess what?

then the trees become more valuable why well because now i can get two by twelves i can get more two by twelves out of that tree i as opposed to just getting two by sixes or having to grind the goddamn things down and turn them into pulp or you know oriented strand board or whatever like you know all of a sudden i can get real lumber out of them like and then the stumpage prices go up and then and then and then and they have control over what goes to the market because they're the ones, it's their stuff. Now, it's a fascinating study, but it's going to be interesting when I sit down to update my model on that after we have a nice, sharp correction in the stock market for the next, and maybe we have an 18-month correction in the stock market. It would be good.

Nice reorganization of capital. Where does the money need to go? Should it be in tech stocks? Should we be dealing with this AI bubble or do we need to be putting money into frigging, you know, transportation, commodities, blah, blah, blah, blah. We have so much. We are so behind the curve on exploration and production upstream across the entire commodity space, which has been capital starved during this ridiculous, ridiculous financialization of our economy. um that i how can you not you know how can you not bet on that right and even when oil prices were refusing to like break back above 80 all the oil majors trading at pdes of like four or five or six, not 15, 18, 28, 37, whatever, and paying 5% to 7% dividends. And they were doing so at $78 a barrel of oil. But they didn't have a lot of money to put into finding new reserves. And I

have arguments with people about peak oil all the time. And I'm like, yeah, well, when you have governments that are incredibly hostile to new exploration in places where we know there are trillions of barrels of oil. Why are we shocked that the production numbers out of the top 50? I was arguing with Chris Martinson on Twitter about this the other day. I'm like, I just don't buy it. I'm sorry. The inflation adjusted price for oil is now lower than it was in the 1970s using the cpi which we know is understated so oil actually is actually cheaper today in the 60s it's insane yeah it's it's truly insane which makes again the the backlash from the backlash is coming from the reddit class the managerial class a bunch of people who would like to fancy

themselves as individuals who can see something and respond to it and know the exact answer immediately it's like this is the setup for one of the greatest opportunities to build things in america has ever existed and just not just for america for the entire world because if america overthrows its managerial class it overthrows that the managerial revolution which we've already gone through it's going to have downstream effects for everyone because it's going to out compete the managerial class everywhere else at some point everything everything becomes too complex right everything becomes too um bound up in its own inertia and sometimes just have to like you know what nope sorry and we're gonna blow through it but we've told you you're not allowed

to do that you have to play by wto rules we're not we we just took ourselves out of the wto you can't do that i think yes i can push back a little bit it's not it's not it's not complexity that's the problem it's complicated they complicate everything complexity and complication are okay i'm a i'm a semantic asshole on this one it's like complex systems are good they're emergent complicated systems are forced on people they just complicate everything no you're that is that i i stand corrected right i don't see and you know i don't do that very often marty you are correct you are completely correct um you're right um and but i mean complexity has its own the and it's not just it's not just you know it's not just complexity and then that you're you're

you're you're correct i'm just like like vamping here now i'm thinking like what i'm when i when i use the word complex i mean that we have interconnected things that require a tremendous this web of inputs and you know that's the modern miracle of the entire thing that we do right as a what we call the economy you know it's like all these amazing friggin decisions that people make in order to try and figure out how to turn what is into what will be it's it's a brilliant beautiful thing and you know emergent dynamic chaotic lovely all that stuff's great because you never know what's going to come out the other side right and you shouldn't but the control freaks want they they want they don't want that what they want is they need control so yes they need a little

needlessly complicate your life with with unnecessary things and so my i the one i always go to is the the modern diesel engine look at what they've done to the diesel engine it's the simplest thing in the world it should be and they and in order to make it uncompetitive what did they do they turned it into a goldberg device with all this emission reburning and this and that and they knew exactly what they were doing they what they what were they doing they were trying to kill the the fuel efficiency of the diesel engine in order to make it too expensive to to produce then there would be no comparative advantage than they did to buying one and then at the same time they let all the diesel refineries go away and they wouldn't let us

build new ones so that we restrict the supply of diesel then we change the sulfur rules then we did this then we did that then we put cafe on then and then by the time we were done like yeah but we we didn't outlaw diesel commercial diesel engines and cars and and and pickup trucks we just made it so that nobody wants to build one yeah that was the funniest suite i've seen in the last month is uh whoever invented the or whoever introduced the concept of your engine shutting off when you hit a red light and then turning back on needs to be sent to el salvador because it's like it's so stupid it's so stupid it's that is it's terrible for the car like i think i have i have a bmw sorry not by an american yet but uh like have i have to hit that button whenever i get

in the car make sure it doesn't do this products that did this it's like multiple jeeps or or or rams that that this you know they're they were yeah no and they're they're all awful and we every time you get in the car i turn the push button start turn the thing on turn the auto the auto start thing uh start something on immediately it was like bing bing two buttons to start the car every time yeah yeah oh it's the cylinder deactivation don't even get me started on that like the the the dodge hemi v8 is one of the great engines of all time but they now you destroy it with that with doing cylinder deactivation in order to get you know in order to get the 28 miles of the allen on the open road well that's great you can do that

uh and now this engine that should have lasted 400 000 miles is going to last 100 and a half yeah complicating things you know and i think the timing of it is sometimes god works universe god whatever you believe in works in incredible ways the uh the timing of this like thinking about like resetting the economy with all this technology particularly ai i mean you were mentioning rock like i've been using it a lot is who knows there's debates in the tech sphere about how powerful it is whether or not agi will materialize but i think it's objectively true that it is pretty powerful to the extent that it can make you much more efficient and um yes being in the venture space i've seen a lot of companies started by

young excited people that are really gen z has been radicalized which is going to work in our favor because they they have gotten the end of the stick a lot of them were told um that they're bad for for just being who they are in the first place they've gotten dejected by colleges for for not having the right essay or the right skin color whatever it may be and they're motivated to really bring back that american ingenuity and like prove to the world that they are worth it and they can do things and so you're seeing this i don't know mostly an ai defense tech like i'm not sure if you've been following some of the defense tech companies like i'm not an anti-war guy but the some of the stuff coming out of el segundo california um which

the tech they're building can be repurposed for not dropping bombs but doing productive things is crazy impressive like we're talking building 3d printed planes on a five million dollar budget that it's gonna completely change change the world we're transitioning and i guess that like the last topic how could this get fucked up um and what should what should people be cognizant of and aware of and particularly from the narrative perspective because yeah yeah no i i think what you i mean what i would watch very carefully is how i i brought it up earlier our biggest tail risk at this point is somebody trying you know desperately needs a war and in order to um to break down what's what's left of of we have complex systems

complexity is not a problem but complexity is easily attacked it's also if it's you know redundant like tcpip is redundant right it sees outages as doesn't see it sees them as bugs and it just immediately reroutes the data right that's the the way tcpip was written is a is a great metaphor i use it all the time it's a great metaphor for how how you know systems are really good at adapting to you know problems right but at some point complex systems are can be fragile especially if somebody is being vandal is being vandal is trying to vandalize them and they would say well we can we knock that one out okay that's one thing we knock that one out too and that one and that one now what you know i i i just took a a two-day trip to new york to uh celebrate the the newsmax

ipo and um i got on four flights all of them were delayed every one of them we were 75 minutes late getting out of gainesville oh no sorry this my connection was not yeah and then my even my connection was late they rerouted me to a different connection and we were still late getting off the runway um silly little maintenance issues or just it was it was insane we were late leaving charlotte last night to get into gainesville like gainesville there's nothing airport we get there and we have to sit on the tarmac for 10 minutes why because we were late getting there another plane came in in front of us and there was only one ground crew and they were unloading the other plane and we had to wait for them to unload that plane before they let us off the plane like and i was just over and

over and over and over again and i was like and i know that that's part of the plan the plan is to destroy you know it's not just transportation food web all of it and i know people are are cognizant of this and so what i if you know if you want you know what i think people should be most worried about is the attrition that we've seen in a lot of these basic industries since covid are we're still seeing aftershocks of this and now we're not training the people to replace them where we have a you know we have a short no we don't have a shortage of pilots we have a shortage of like everything competent throughout the entire airline industry and now we're going to and we're putting people in the air still and all the flights were oversold and

the prices are you know i'm sorry but the prices are insane um i flew coach which clearly told tells you that um you board the plane last and if you board the plane last you might not be able to keep your carry on you might have to check that damn thing but if you want to carry on and you want to make sure that it gets to your destination because you know well then you can pay us an extra 200 for your ticket really okay yeah i the whole thing is is is is is awful and they're trying to turn every interaction you have with the outside world into going to the social security office right that's what they're trying to do and knowing full well that that complexity or that those complications will lead to a breakdown in complexity because you've now

taken systems that are that should be durable and turn them fragile and that's what i worry about more than anything else at this point and that's why i've been i've been you know screaming for years like what should you do i don't know but go and look at your local town and figure out what that we're not producing and start producing it or make sure that if we are producing something locally i don't know food this hey i you know i i default to my days as a goat farmer and say okay well i make sure that i you know that you you deal with your your local feed lot and you deal with your you know for your animal feed and you deal with you know you make sure that your local hay farmer you know can get his product to market and then you know you can contract with him to get

to get you know 50 bales or whatever the hell you need like whatever it needs you know but then again it's also the barbed wire guy you know it's also the bailing wire guy like we need him too we need you know we we can't allow the pipe factory down the road that makes you know the all the pvc for north florida we can't we have to make sure that that thing keeps functioning again i mean like this is the kind of thing like that none of us think about on a daily basis but there are unbelievable opportunities all the way around like yeah and this is a bit i'm not did you see the debate pop off yesterday or the day before that somebody talking about reshoring manufacturing and talking about i think a toaster factory that was spinning back up people like do we need to

build the toasters here it's like yes we'll actually need to train people to work in a factory setting so that you can then poach them and move them up to spacex or tesla whatever it is to build more complex systems right like yeah they i remember that meme was running around like do we really need to be building toasters in 2020 and 2025 in america i'm like yeah actually we do like oh i mean unless you don't unless you believe that we shouldn't be eating bread that's a different conversation but yes we should and we can make we can make the best we and we can make toasters that were as good as the ones that we made in the 1950s but with better you know but you know with better wiring as opposed to the cheap shit that we make today that are all designed

to the to the to be worn out in 18 months like we now you know they're trying to turn the entire world into into you know come out and you know everything is a service and again i i go back to it all the time like every day the world is turning into freaking philip k dickland like everything is a service everything's a tip you know everything's a you know like no like i you you kidding me like because somebody wants because somebody decided that they can figure out a way to cut a three percent big on a toll booth to do nothing and again that trade arbitrage i was talking about earlier i want you people to understand or you people i hate i shouldn't have used that phrase that's that's i want everybody to understand that that arbitrage

i was talking about that trade durable trade surplus that is what economists call rent it's unearned profit and that's what trump is calling back now and then we can negotiate about the rest of it but we're not going to get there until we start bringing that money in because if he brings in say he brings in the five to seven hundred billion dollars in tariffs that's money we don't have to raise taxes for that's taxes that we that's that takes care you know and we like it you're not going to fix the budget overnight you're not going to fix the finances of the country overnight but i've been screaming from the beginning i'm like the world wants the united states to stop doing what it's been doing other than our enemies

but our enemies are in no position to replace us europe's not in any position to replace us china is not really in any position to replace us if you know those if those reports are true you know or you can start getting into whether or not there's actually you know 7.1 billion people in the world or not i'm the more i think about it the the it doesn't make any sense that there's that that there's as many people as they say there is and what if that's a sign yeah i've always wondered that too how do we know it's a bill we don't know you know it's just it's it's a number that we we pull out of our ass right yeah so and when you think about it like again coming out fast resetting the market and then it's pertinent to me in my life and my beat like i think also

just being uh accommodative to the bitcoin economy here where it's like we're gonna do all this you guys can play with your bitcoins play have fun play with your bitcoins but like slowly but surely more and more americans are gonna wake up and they're gonna have a a better long-term savings vehicle through which they can then reinvest and do all this stuff as well and the industry i'm seeing it it's happening rapidly like the the products that are coming to markets really help people get in the bitcoin in uh in ways in which that is sort of like snuck into their life it's not really in your face you're not thinking about the daily price movements are coming to market quickly yeah no i just i think it's i think it's incredibly important

because look we like i mean from a i'll be honest with you we waste a lot of energy that we produce bitcoin in my mind aside from all of its other attributes i've said this before and i'll remind everybody bitcoin's strongest attribute is that it tokenizes waste energy production and it does so So, and it goes out and finds inefficiencies within the energy production market and destroys them. And that's a really, really powerful tool. And then the fact that we can do that and turn it into a token that has, we know there's

been work that's been done. We know there was opportunity cost, you know, dealt with by a human to create this unit of thing. It's not, new monetary units should always come with an opportunity cost. Like by definition, that's what makes them commodities. There should be a choice to produce that as opposed to this. and because then you have a human making a decision and making a value judgment on their actions and that's where value is created right inherent in the idea i value judgment i value that is more productive use of my time than doing that right new monetary units where

i push a button and nothing happened and i can make instantiate a dollar or a billion dollars that's where the corruption comes from. That's where everything goes wrong. So Bitcoin's ability through its architecture to incentivize efficiency within the energy use space is its greatest attribute because it's literally turning productive work into a token that can be traded that other humans can then value in order to get work done that they need to get done

you know we we've done it with gold we can do it with bitcoin we can do it with both simultaneously consecutively and concurrently i don't care i i don't care i just i know that that's what we need and that's when humans are out there and that's when humans are at their absolute best i think is what i'm really getting out here yeah and you'll be uh you'll be happy to hear i think you know this but i started to help start one of the first team members on a bitcoin mining company we did flare gas mitigation in the bakken started back in 2018 uh company got acquired in 2022 i believe but back then in 2018 we were on well pads in the bakken i wasn't physically there but a lot of our team was but that was once you you learned about the supply

chain from upstream down to midstream to um the market ultimately it was always in our mind like it doesn't make sense to go and stop the flare on the well pad because it's just logistically and uh not scalable and inefficient and the idea was like if we go to the midstream and instead of sucking instead of consuming the flare on the weld pad suck it in from the midstream because you can actually get scale there and you don't plop up and move all the time that is the holy grail and i had a call earlier this morning where ong companies have owned it on that they're like oh i get it now this is what we're going to do so you just use bitcoin mining as a pressure release valve if your pipes are getting too full and it's like all right just cycle it to

the bitcoin miner and then you have optionality on top of that like what's natty gas trading at and it's only two dollars in mcf you know what if i turn this gas towards this generator produce electricity my bitcoin with it i'm gonna make five dollars in mcf so i'm gonna i'm gonna bolster that revenue stream with some bitcoin mining and then oh look we're pretty well capitalized we got good cash flow let's go drill some more wells let's go build some more pipelines right and the whole and the system is and the system is self and ultimately the system is self-correcting and you know and the other thing that's also interesting about that is then you also have compute power that can be used in other ways if the bitcoin mining isn't necessary if you know

it's a compute power isn't needed i yes that's not true no no no they use the hash cash shot 256 uh algorithm the a6 that's what they that's the i know that i know we i know that it's mostly a6 but i'm saying you know if the company wants to they can co-locate yes yeah they can use the energy power you can't use the same compute power i know in bitcoin mining because it's yeah it's you can use the electrical infrastructure right exactly gpus right to file the gpus and do and and do ai and and yes right and and do ai compute like right there but i mean this as one example there's multiple ways of skinning that cat so but first you build the base business and then you know let them figure out what the what what works and what doesn't work after that

but you know again it's this is such an important idea and it's where we're going to wind up and i and i'm so happy that honestly that percent gets this like trump trump pays back political favors right that's what he does right maybe he gets it maybe you know the maybe the tech bros around him have explained it to them to the point that he gets it maybe i don't even care what i what i care about is that the treasury secretary understands this that's different that's important i mean un it was unprovoked with tucker brought up bitcoin bitcoin's turning into a store of value yep yep gold they're they're going to roll out a lot of different ideas and they're going to do it and they've got and as you've mentioned their their

their media strategy has been excellent and they're going to use that media strategy they're using that media savvy to interject the next thing into the marketplace the sense saying that is a direct attack upon the european union yeah and compare that to the eu's there like all they have is von der leyen macron and um christine lagarde that come out and they just give like a very vanilla the typical politician speech it's like nobody's picking this up anymore like yeah well i mean the thing about and they're but they're all uniquely hostile to bitcoin i mean oh yeah they're incredibly hostile to it and and anytime they say and if they ever say anything nice about it no one's going to believe them because we all know what their plans are did i tell you

did you know this i don't know the ec the ecb cited one of my newsletters in a paper they wrote disparaging bitcoin yeah it was a nice uh nice little medal on the uh was it positive or negative negative negative they're saying i misunderstood uh they were trying they were basically taking something i wrote in a newsletter i think it was about japan and why the i think it may have had to do with the carry trade blow up and like why this is why you pulled bitcoin instead of treasuries and they're like well actually they will actually be an ecb research paper yeah now i'm not i'm not surprised at all actually that's that's very cool yes to have anytime you have someone you know someone like that like come after you it's great it's really good it was it was it was a

a great morning i had people i didn't even know that it happened people are like marty you were you were cited in the ecb paper and i actually dm'd one of the co-authors i was like hey would you like to come on the show to discuss it he was like yeah i would let me talk to my handlers then he came back six hours later it was like uh they don't want me to uh to do press like this and i was like well i don't i don't actually want to defend anything that i wrote in public i'm not allowed to do that i have a i i operate you know in a in a very tightly controlled political space like obviously so cool yeah it's all good man yeah well thank you again i know it's been a long week for you this is it's always incredible catching up with you and i feel like we do it like friday

afternoon every time now it's a good time to do it actually like after the market closes all the all the drama is over thankfully as of right now we're not like going to sit down and talk about which banks went under yet um i'm expecting most of them to be in europe um i and on the way out the door just to remind everybody i'm i think i'm absolutely right about what's going on with um with uh watch let's watch the fed very carefully well as european banks start to go under and the swap and they because they're like screaming that they're worried about swap lines and the fed and this dollar liquidity you watch to see who gets the bailouts and who doesn't well did you see uh did you see that headline from germany about the conservative german politicians

wondering if we should if they should call the golden kind from new york you know my yeah i saw that and my my response to him i think on twitter was that's nice we've got 80 years worth of nato that you owe us back where you pay us pay us for in possessions nine tenths of the law so we'll we'll call you ah exciting times yes very incredible opportunity out there if you're listening to this if you listen to this and don't recognize that there's a credible opportunity out there go back start over and listen to it as many times as you need to as necessary i hate to plug our own work but you know all right man you have a great weekend thank you for the invite and and for and for catching up and all you do and all

the rest of it i really appreciate it you too tom peace a lot freaks