TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #632: Bond Market Wars with Tom Luongo

Episode Date: June 23, 2025

Marty sits down with Tom Luongo to discuss the complex geopolitical chess game involving Israel, Iran, and the Federal Reserve, exploring theories about who's really pulling the strings behind Middle East conflicts and global financial markets. Tom Luongo on Twitter: https://x.com/TFL1728 Tom Luongo's website: https://tomluongo.me/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBz Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Coinkite https://coinkite.com Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free if you talk about a fed just gone nuts all all the central banks going nuts so it's all acting like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean that's part of the bull case for bitcoin if you're not paying attention you probably should be having been in the process of this move for the better part of a month i've been somewhat disconnected which seems like i don't know if it's a good or bad time to be disconnected but right ending the week i think this is becoming our thing friday night right end of uh in a very

chaotic weeks we catch up uh i'm sun-kissed i've got salt i've got atlantic ocean salt water on my skin right now just came out of the ocean right feeling relaxed good for you excited excited excited to uh to unpack everything that's going on what the hell is going on where do we even start that's a good question there's so many things to say that say and i'll be honest with you marty i have already done the whole i've i've done four or five things in the last three days multi-hour you know phone calls podcasts the three and a half hour twitter space on tuesday night just got got done with a two to two hours with alex craner yesterday where you know i think alex and i had our very first you know serious disagreement about things ever

either publicly or privately um and it wasn't you know bad or anything but i it was it was stressful for both of us it was especially stressful for me because i i don't like to i i i love alex too much to you know publicly disagree with him about things or or knowing full well that i was probably going to trigger him and and so like and i was really worried about that and so it probably then my anxiety over that translated into my performance and like now i feel bad about that um so where are we we have about five different domains where everything is like blowing up right you got israel iran um you've got what i'm uncovering in the what i'm seeing in the financial markets i just did a bitcoin conference down in um tampa over the weekend

uh the bitcoin bay group uh invited me down there and i was able to to chat with a bunch of bitcoiners about all the stuff that i you know talk about right which was great because you know there they had never really ever heard any of this stuff from me right and i was brought in there specifically by my friend chris sullivan of iberian decimus to um who's been on my podcast a couple of times and um and to discuss these things and to introduce those ideas to that community which was very successful by the way um and uh yeah it's been a hell of a week right all this is going on um it's i think it's clear that you know we have a civil war that's trying to you know start a civil war here in the united states and it's all comes back to the same thing i keep

saying it over and over again it's all about the bond market dude yeah i hate it like it's all about the bond market can they destroy the u.s treasury market and keep capital from flowing into the u.s it's always the same thing over and over and over again and and that's what i keep saying and you know the stakes keep getting higher but the target remains the same that is this is a great place to start because i threw out a couple tweets one of which you responded to um particularly around interest rates and context of interest rates the fed funds rate and i think we should anchor around that like trump in this in this position with everything going on whether it's immigration civil war iran israel ukraine russia we'll throw that in there

he's we've talked about this many times he's focused on the economy growth making sure everything's okay get to midterms so that's where republicans can keep the house right and the senate and then roll into the 12-year plan from there hopefully if things are all humming and i guess that's what i tweeted out that that's the one thing that's perplexing to me particularly this week with everything going on in israel and iran is his continued battering of jerome powell to lower rates when it seems like the tariffs are working it seems like uh the economy is doing much better than uh everybody was saying it was going to do once he got in office and started with his drastic policy changes and to me lowering rates is a

sign of weakness if nothing is structurally wrong in the economy if there's no liquidity problems in the plumbing of the financial system if unemployment is at a good level if inflation's at a good level why rush to lower interest rates particularly when a war starting another war starting in the middle east which is going to be highly inflationary for oil prices if it continues to to escalate that would be the worst time to lower interest rates right and you know when you when you when you look at it from that perspective it's really really difficult to um it's it's really difficult to be upset with powell holding back on cutting at this point in time and i i don't i'll be honest with you marty and i i've been i spent the last couple days i'm trying to

do all this figure out what's going on with the war with the war and write this month's newsletter and i was trying to write that you know trying to write that and like fits and starts all all week and i just finished the uh the article where i talk about you know the markets basically in our you know our portfolio review and all that and i said to my and i was looking at it and you know when i took a look at the markets it sometimes you think it's maybe it's wishful thinking some things that i'm like no i know these things well enough trust my instincts on this it feels like the markets are starting to push back that capital starting to fall back into the the united states we had a big wave where it all moved out into the uh and you know into emerging

markets in europe and now it's we're starting to see the rollover we're starting to see the push back this way again as much as they tried to pull the tide out of the u.s and keep the money from flowing back in you know that was an operation and they spent a lot of money on those operations and i've talked about them i don't remember i think we talked about it back during the tariff the last time you know i spoke was after the tariff tantrum and i now have the tic data which confirms that mark carney ran an operation uh with u.s treasuries um yeah because you were it was i think the day or two before they were releasing that data when we last spoke yeah and you were you had a hunch that there was gonna be something in that well it was

it was that the the tic data uh was always two months in arrears so what i said back then was that you know this is what i think is going on but we won't get confirmation until june because the april data won't come out until june and the tic report comes out around the 15th of every month whether there's you know whether it's on the weekends or the holiday or something along those lines so here we are we're on it's june 20th and when the tic data was out and as i was working on that article you know i was because i was you know i was saying to myself i think i smell you know capital starting to flow back in the u.s the dax is rolling over the gross tax 50 is now starting to underperform the dow um the euro is topping out the pound is topping out you know

okay so this whole week dollar trade you know we're starting to see the long end of the yield curve creep back down away from five percent now we're down into the 48 485 range on on on the 30 year like that's telling me that there's something happening here and the dow is up and then it's holding steady and we can move back up into the 42s and it's kind of holding steady yeah it's It's been volatile this week with Israel, Iran, and people going to cash, and that's perfectly reasonable. But the other thing I've noted is that the short-term T-bill market is starting to seize up.

And this was happening before Powell declined to cut rates, which guess what? No one was surprised about. But the SMB, the Swiss National Bank, went back to the zero bound. The Riksbank in Sweden dropped another quarter point. The ECB cut again. And while Trump could be out there thinking like a New York State real estate developer going, I need lower rates in order to do all these big projects that I've got coming. And that's his bag.

And I understand that's his point of view. You've got his Treasury Secretary, Besant, clearly running an operation on draining the LBMA of all their gold. and uh and powell sitting there going look i've got these people on the ropes because now i saw the hong kong dollar i'll go look at the hong kong dollar it's pegged at the top of the range it's been there for 10 days i haven't seen the hong kong dollar pegged at the top at either the bottom of the top of this very tight peg in years and this was three years ago i think it was the last time i saw something like this happen and i'm like but this is big now because it's not only happening there it's happening in the t-bill market the um we're

seeing um the the one month market across all of europe i just like to quick scan the other day or yesterday or end today of the yield curves across europe and there's seizure happening in the one month market over there like they're selling off um the reason so we have a weird thing is setting up in the in the t-bill market right now the one to three months you've got the one month is down below the fed funds the bottom of the fed funds range but you've got the two year you got the two month at four and a half percent 4.5 4.55 you've got the three month is up as well so you've got a weird moment where you've got your 418 456 435 or something like that right so there's this big you know inversion on the or big spike on the two month like why are people doing that you know

what's what's going i tweeted out this morning what's going on in the 60-day t-bill market right but it started happening last week because i charted all the time every every market report i update my my my chart on wednesdays and sundays every week like it's just part of my routine so i'm constantly looking at these credit spreads within the u.s treasury market all the time and they were flat and boring and i've been like yeah there's no stress in the markets you know like sofa's not moving like nothing's going on here it's kind of boring actually and then and now it's starting to crack if there's big if there's a big rush in the dollars you have people who are sitting overseas in t-bills and they're selling the crap out of them because they need dollars

and that's happening in the two month in the three month market and then the one month market i suspect i was talking about i called vince haunchy up this afternoon like vince this is what i'm seeing and i said this is what i think is going on he's like absolutely the one month market um people are needing repos and collateral so they're buying one month 30 day t-bills in order to be able to have the collateral do 7 and 14 day repos so you're getting this like jumble in the market all at the same time and like and then the hong kong dollar is pegged and that's getting drained and the hong kong monetary authority is having to defend the peg by dumping treasuries to hold the peg because people are looking for dollars

so powell has been very effective in upsetting the offshore dollar markets exactly as i've been talking about for years and we might be at that inflection point where something's about the crack i don't know what could be the hong kong dollar peg been waiting for it forever in a day and with the amount of dollars flowing through China, flowing out, flowing through to get back to China because of the tariffs and now all of a sudden

yeah, dollars are kind of scarce in Hong Kong. And I think those dollars that are being demanded in Hong Kong are going back to London. Because if you want to look at it this way, the city of London in London, their city of East London in Singapore, and their city of Far East London in Hong Kong.

That's kind of the way I'm looking at it now, right? I coined those phrases like this afternoon when I was writing this section of the newsletter. I'm like, that makes perfect sense. So this is all happening against the backdrop of Israel-Iran. And Trump is, you know, I think he's playing. I have a long argument about what I think is going on with Israel-Iran. And it comes down to, it's going to make me sad.

and i i'm getting roasted on twitter for this i'm getting roasted everywhere i'm getting roasted because of the comments because of the the the video i did with alex yesterday where it's at times like you know we got a little heated with each other and um and of course i'm making the argument that israel could have been betrayed by the city of london over the jcpoa and over iran enrichment in the nuclear weapon let's let's it it it's complicated but it really comes down to what if the fucking british as always are on both sides of the conflict hey let's see what he fight and what would get israel angry and what would what would iran why would iran get angry and over the course of the last 40 years the iranians have rightly

pursued an axis of resistance against u.s uk israeli aggression towards them that israel is there is their land-based aircraft carrier in the middle of the british aircraft carrier in the middle east we have a whole bunch of american politicians who were bought and paid for by all this euro dollar fuckery for all lack of a better term and though the whole libor system bought all these politicians um we have all these you know dual citizenship uh uh loyal disloyal people in congress and the senate well they're all aging out dude davos has got to use that asset this this israeli asset that they have they've got to use this and i am using the terms davos and City of London interchangeably now, just so you know.

I'm thinking to myself, strategically, I'm thinking like the guy at the dune table or whatever. How do I get the two of them to fight and beat the hell out of each other so I can swoop in and win the game? Well, this is how you do it. In this case, it's actually a three-player. It's actually three. You're trying to set three players against each other,

Israel, Iran, and the United States. You're trying to get all of them to do exactly what you want them to do and not and then there's russia as well and like and when you put it all together the solve is the iranian nuclear program is the forever war that's the impetus that's the impetus of the forever war right two weeks away for the last 30 years right well yes exactly and netanyahu when he was a good loyal you know stooge for the zionists kept using that as a talking point in order to get what he wanted for israel right iran in the face of this rightly forms this axis of resistance strategy

starts to pursue nuclear weapons because of what we were doing in iraq during the iran-iraq war and all this other stuff and you know i don't blame them for doing that i never have but i still don't think they should have a nuclear weapon okay i don't think north korea should have a nuclear weapon i don't think the israeli should have a nuclear weapon i don't think anybody should have nuclear weapons from all my honest opinion but here we are this is the world i've got not the world i want so now yeah yeah so you're with me so i'm just gonna say that's like the that's like the frustrating thing is like if you're anti this conflict and any u.s involvement it's like your pro is iran having nukes and it's like no and that's not and and

that's and that's a false diet and the fault and another false diet for you is after world war ii israel was the perfect the jews were the perfect victim and and post 10-7 they're the perfect villain that's right and i'm not a big fan and you know how big a fan i am of the classic you know um triangle of hero victim villain to explain all narratives because this is what you do and this is how stories are constructed this is how narratives are constructed it's you know from depending on which perspective you want to look at you want to view the conflict will determine who's the victim who's the villain and who's the who's the who's the hero so now let's play this game out up until 2015 or really up until 2010 between 2009 2008 to 2010 iran is

pursuing this um this um policy obama apparently if you if you go back and you really and i and i've had my i had my my memory on all this um refreshed it was a good article by jack cashel on his sub stack the other day just kind of going through all this not his commentary through it but just all the the timeline of events okay now i've always said that obama negotiated the JCPOA on behalf of Davos, because Davos wanted Europe, wanted access to Iran's oil and gas. They wanted to use that as the new market. They would invest billions and billions of dollars into Iran. And that was the carrot that Obama used in order to get the JCPOA. But the JCPOA was designed, and this is where Netanyahu, as a serial liar and a scumbag and

everything else this is where it works against him because he wasn't wrong that the jcpoa wasn't really stopping iran from enriching uranium for weapons great purposes iran could play this bullshit game of lying through their teeth that they weren't it was all for medical isotopes it was all for this well the medical isotopes you only need 20 why the fuck do you have 60 okay You only have 60% uranium because you want a nuclear bomb. So it's all bullshit. Like, Iran's position on this is untenable because they're lying. Had they been saying, look, we're not pursuing a nuclear weapon,

the fatwa against nuclear weapons that the Ayatollah issued is real. And maybe, just maybe, he believes that. And there's another faction within Iran, say the IRGC or some other hardliner faction within Iran, that is like, no, no, no, we're going to do this because this is the only way we're going to keep the Israelis and the Americans and the British off our asses. But what happens here if you're looking at this going, OK, so Obama comes in and negotiates the JCPOA. by the way he you remember he kicked iran out of the swift system the first time in december 2011 he used that as a means by which to get iran to the to the freaking table to negotiate this deal so the iranians weren't crazy about this deal either so no one was happy with it but maybe this speaks to where i was a couple days ago maybe i was wrong about that maybe and maybe

alex craner is right that that iran never really that you know that iran never really made a deal with davos but it's hard to see how the ayatollah and everybody have reacted since then because since the war started there's all the statements and all the little bits and pieces that have come out all point to iran's working with davos to fuck the united states and fuck israel because they really do mean death to america and death to israel it's not just it's not just rhetoric to get everybody to the table maybe again i'm we don't we have fungible information here i am presenting all of this stuff to try and put together the best thesis i can but i don't think this thesis is complete

but if we don't look at all these things in carefully we can't come all we're all we're going to do that is blindly accept whatever propaganda best fits our model of the world and in that case everybody all the jewsbergs out there are like um you know it's all the jews they run the run america they're all powerful blah blah blah and you you know iran is iran's the good guy which i don't believe or you have the you have the other side of it which is you have the neocons which are saying israel's trying to save the world from the crazy iranians blah blah blah blah but what they really want is to take over iran install a rothschild central bank break up bricks break up the international north-south transport corridor that the russians want and start the colonization

of central asia which is what they want and we know that's bullshit too so we're all predisposed towards hating the neocons because we've lived with them and their perfidy for 50 freaking years and we can see right through them but on the other side of that gambit is whether or not iran is actually working with europe to get what they want and if they believe that the best way to destroy Israel and the United States is to keep the chaos of their nuclear weapons program and string everybody along and fake negotiate over getting a nuclear, over their not getting a nuclear weapon, then that tracks with what we've seen. So now let's think about this. Now let's look at some of the data that suggests that Iran has been doing exactly that. So we've all

seen how crown prince palavi is now the guy who they want to install in iraq right the ayatollah came out and hamani came out and said we support zelensky and their fight for ukraine when hamani is supposed to be tied with the russians but he didn't make that statement until after the russians refused to help them against israel because the russians have stood down and said get back to the negotiating table and by the way the russians had put a stronger defense mutual defense agreement on the table to the iranians two months two three months ago when they signed that that agreement they put a stronger one on the table and the iranians rejected it because they didn't want to be tied to russia so they were playing everybody again so again

how many and the irgc are playing this game just like they always do so again i i have no problem with the irani like i hate to say it i sound like benjamin netanyahu last week i have no problem with the iranian people i just don't want to see these freaking crazy mullahs have a nuclear weapon to blackmail the world with because them having a nuclear weapon furthers davos's ability to blackmail all of us with nuclear holocaust because you know damn well that the israelis are never going to stand down if these people have a nuclear weapon which is what i mean when i say the iranians pursuing a nuclear weapon is the forever war it's the way to keep this thing going forever and i think this is what happened you have one of two scenarios

i just laid out the i just laid out the evil mustache twirling version of iran and how many there's the other side of it which is that they realize that their their game has reached an end hezbollah has been basically beaten the houthis are pretty much done certainly since iran can't even have a halfway decent events against what israel is doing they're free and flying over tehran they have complete they're running cap over iran over tehran for christ's sake um the russians stood down the saudis and all the gulf states aided israel's defense openly shooting down shooting interceptors to shoot down iranian missiles coming in okay after three years of the saudis and the iranians putting you know doing negotiations

to normalize relations right erdogan and his pets his pets in syria allowed them to use syrian airspace to fly into iran trump came out and said i've always known the date of when this attack was going to happen you know why because it was timed with the la riots the fight over the big beautiful bill that this all these other things that davos had set up on their freaking gantt chart to turn into this week's this this week's crazy so what did trump do two months ago he said iran you've got 60 days to negotiate a deal on day 61 he attacked he let bb attack he didn't attack he He just let Bibi attack, do what he always wanted to do. But here's another.

So that's part number one. So now is Netanyahu still working for City of London? And then they're trying to sneak in, you know, meet the new boss, same as the old boss in Tehran? It's a perfectly valid argument. But here's the one that's even more interesting. And the one I think might actually be the case. Ready? the jcpoa was a fundamental betrayal of israel by city of the city of london like a fundamental

betrayal you knew it was the one thing that would set in motion eventually when he gets when he's got a group of people in um power That eventually Actually, let me back it up a second What did I say about Hamas after 10-7? They were a rapidly depreciating asset That somebody had to use or lose Iran, getting a nuclear weapon

They have so much 60% in the rich uranium now They can't play this game anymore The IAEA has been covering for Iran since the jcpoa and then they finally put out a report which like lays out even if it's even if it's half bullshit it's still an overwhelming amount of 60 percent um uh enriched uranium now for a lot of people in the audience who may not know this going from 60 to 90 is easy getting from zero getting from three percent to 60 is the hard part actually getting to three

percent is really hard yeah what i'm saying is that that nuclear fuel is easier to purify as you go as you go on as you go up the purity curve which is completely ass backwards from everything else we know in chemistry right i've used this you know if you were to sit down and talk with dave column if dave column and i were both here we'll be talking about organic synthesis and since dave's you know the chairman is the the chair of organic chemistry at fucking cornell and i would make this argument to him he would be he would be nodding his head going yes getting get doing an organic synthesis reaction getting low yield is easy you take the stuff you write a reaction equation you put the stuff in the in a in a in a round bottom flask you turn

on the bunsen burner you do the thing you get you get some yield and you can make a dirty uh you get a dirty product right you want to optimize that and get from like 50 or 60 percent yield to 90% yield, that requires the chemical engineers to really fine-tune the temperature control and the pressure control and when you add new reagents and how you bring them in and how you go from gross chemistry to a finely-tuned chemical engineering process that gets you the best bang for your buck, the highest purity stuff for the least amount of money. that's the way it normally works in your head and most engineers would think oh getting from 60 to 90 is the hard part because the Pareto takes over right no it's actually easier to go

from 60% UF6 to 90% UF6 meaning Netanyahu wasn't lying for once yeah they're two weeks away from nuclear weapon why because they have a stockpile of 60% uranium that they can turn into 90% in a week put it if they've got the casing and they've got the mechanism they got the trigger building a nuclear bomb ain't that fucking hard it's the fuel that's the hard part sup freaks this rip of tftc was brought to you by our good friends at coin kite they make the cold card queue my favorite hardware wallet the most secure hardware wallet on the market as you can see it's got the blackberry form factor full keyboard it's got two secure enclaves you create your private public keys offline the device never has to go online never does go online so you keep your bitcoin secure

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helping you think in a Bitcoin standard. It works on Amazon, Zillow, X, your bank account, QuickBooks. You can convert everything to Bitcoin. It's really cool. It's also 100% open source mit license we don't collect any data all of the conversions happen in your browser on your local device it's a great way to recalibrate your life and begin thinking in sats go check it out at opportunity cost dot app that's opportunity cost dot app and you may say i don't want to like spoil what could be the ending but like as you're saying this i'm thinking too and i'm not gonna pretend to be some expert on israeli politics and the the pulse of the social layer of israel but it does seem like from what i'm hearing domestically like netanyahu bb's like on the

ropes and so like if you're looking for like get this out of him and then replace him like wait let's let's let's let's let's back that up because i have good data from my friend halsey english who's both israeli and a former journalist over there and lives in new jersey and isn't and is not netanyahu's biggest fan and he and i had a long conversation on tuesday afternoon before we did space on tuesday night with a fort where i invited him in along with picanones and dexter white and we we did a we did a long thing and and um and i'm not saying i'm not saying to take everything that halsey said this gospel but it's closer to the truth in reality than what you're being what you're hearing in the propaganda because i've known this and i've known halsey

a very very long time and um we used to do live streams together back in 2017 2018 like this is not this is this is this is a guy and this is a guy who by the way has been persecuted by the irs fyi so now um just putting that out there folks so um so netanyahu so so if you look at the acpoa as like the first stage of how they're going to betray israel after 100 years of backing them and creating them to be this force of chaos in the middle east and to create and to split the arab world and do all this rotten nonsense right in order to colonize you know and run their mckinder's playbook and all that crap but at some point Israel becomes a rapidly depreciating asset, because Israel can only be maintained so long

as you've got an America willing to back it, right? So John McCain's dead. Lindsey Graham is aging out. He's going to probably get primaried, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Hillary Clinton's gone. Obama's out of the picture. You know, Rumsfeld's dead. Wolfowitz is out of the picture.

Dick Cheney's out of the picture. Liz Cheney's out of the picture. Like, I can keep going. All these neocons are pretty much gone. There's only a few of them left, but they're still powerful. they still have powerful positions in the senate and the house so they're there and apac is spending more money now trying to hold on to whatever control they have left that's why miriam adelson is out there spending a hundred billion a million dollars on trump's campaign to try and get access

keep access so now the last roadblock is underground now we starts there what i've been positing over the last few 72 hours or so is, what if Netanyahu and the Israelis finally realized, yeah, we're no longer useful to that? What would be the inciting incident where they would break completely with the old City of London agenda? And 10-7 is, was, and will always be an MI6 operation. When 10-7 happened, wait, just wait for a second, let me finish this one out. And again, in my conversation with Alex Craner, I did with Crypto Rich yesterday, Alex supported

my argument on this by going through chapter and verse, how MI6 was probably involved. the qataris and parts of hamas okay 10-7 was a british british and qatari based false flag what's the one thing that you can do to just to get all of israel that is kind of split on this whole thing and get them riled up and all marching in one lockstep to wipe out the palestinians kill 1,800 people in the most brutal way imaginable? So let me ask you a question. What happened to the United States after 9-11? Were you old enough to know?

Because I am. I was thrown out of gun shops in North Florida starting on 9-12. The entirety of the United States was all in on the kill all the muslims start the global war on error there was no anti-war movement in 2002 justin romano wrote article after article on antiwar.com for three years my every monday every wednesday and every friday he destroyed himself writing about this and he was right and he saw it all lay out we didn't have an anti-war movement in the united states the

libertarians and the greens needed to come together he exhorted us come together form a real anti-war court get rid of all the other stuff we need to we need to do this because this is bullshit what's happening and they were right what happened we were the minority and we were in the weeds we were in the wilderness until ron paul emerged on 2008 and took down Rudy Giuliani took six years worth of what we what happened in Iraq and everything else or seven years practically in order for that to finally start percolating through the zeitgeist in America and it really didn't reach its full flower until Trump won in 2016 took 15 years so for anybody to use the idea that the Israeli people are evil because 85 percent of them believe

even wiping out the Palestinians after all these years, it's not fair. Because we're all, we've all, and I said this to Alex yesterday, I didn't say it calmly, we were yelling at each other. I said, Alex, you lived through the Yugoslavian Civil War. You know how they set everybody against each other with this kind of stuff. You know how they do this. I lived through it in 9-11, and the Israelis have lived through it here. It was a betrayal, 10-7. And at that point, if I'm Benjamin Netanyahu, I go to everybody in the Knesset and everybody's like, yeah, you know what?

He's the only guy for the job to get this done because he's the only one with the balls. He's the only one with the stones. He's the only one with enough support. And everybody hates Bibi in Israel. He's pissed everybody off. He has no political friends. He has no successor. he has nothing because he's such a fucking horrible political animal he has betrayed

literally everyone inside israel everyone he's betrayed his american benefactors he's betrayed his british he's betrayed everybody and so when you see netanyahu it from that perspective which is what my friend halsey did for me the other day i'm like oh yeah it makes perfect sense everybody's like yeah dude you want to do this you can be the guy to go do this you go to you attack iran we wipe our hands of here including trump now what if this was always the plan at some point israel was going to be used as it was going to be turned into the perfect villain so that they can be the scapegoat for destroying iran and the goal is for davos to turn that into a massive psyop as a means by which to destroy

trump go back to our conversations during the campaign what did i tell you after 10 7 the democrats are going to run on a pro-palestinian platform in order to hang trump with his pro israeli position they didn't do it they saved it and they saved it for this week here we are and they're trying to conflate and you note the five seconds after trump after netanyahu's the reports came in that netanyahu was bombing the out of tehran everybody tried to blame trump for it the propaganda was off the charts in the same way that on 10 by before the bodies were cold in in on 10 7 the pro-palestinian propaganda was out in force and all of the anti-semites that had been deplatformed and went into hiding seven years ago eight years ago

they were all activated on twitter they were all active again every bit of it was all over 4chan it was all they were everywhere i dexter white and i've been talking about this for a year and a half because he monitors that shit directly and he's like dude i'm seeing 20 30 accounts that i haven't seen they haven't been active for seven years and all of a sudden they're out tweeting again they're dormant waiting big push so the so the goal was turn the jews into the perfect villain by allowing everybody to finally say oh my god these evil jews and how they destroyed america and everything else into the zeitgeist of an american public that is tired of fight has clearly tired of fighting forever wars

for Israel or India or anybody. We don't want to fight anybody's war anymore. Yeah. And now the IC is trying to get rid of Tulsi Gabbard at the same time. I mean,

it's all happening, and it's all coming from the same goddamn place. And if Iran played along with any of that, and the service of those fucking vampires At Davos At Evil Corp Central

Fuck them The mullahs deserve to get wiped out I have no I'm sorry, I don't give a fuck Fuck you No, die And I don't care if Netanyahu's the one As a matter of fact, I prefer Netanyahu to do it

Because they get wiped out The Israelis have already torched their friggin Standing in the world So now it all backfires on them It comes like pure victory. And I get my preferred outcome, Marty. Ready? A tie and a lot of injuries.

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I think Adam and Dvorak did a good job dissecting it. And their conclusion was, like, very different, but, like, sort of similar outcome, which was about China. Like, essentially, if you looked at what's happening in, like, Syria, go back to Libya, what's happening in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, basically been and they were bringing back the um the video of that general yeah this is the one years ago he's like here's the plan we're gonna go through iraq afghanistan libya syria eventually getting to iran yes yeah and their thesis was essentially like it's gotten to the point for trump like he gave the 60 day basically ultimatum and their thesis was like during that 60 days trump was going to them basically saying don't do business

with china don't fall prey to the belt and road sort of trapped just trying to set free like do business with us day 61 hits and trump goes bb do what you want to do and is like i guess their perspective is like just throw bb out there to do it and like leave israel out to hang so it wasn't like dava centric but like u.s centric and um just trying to digest all because that that's the thing that i've learned uh eight years in to trying to dissect all this it's like fog of war israel and so trying to basically come out with a declarative explanation of exactly what's happening is just stupid so this is a really interesting thesis that is i'm counteracting in my mind with the one i heard last night which is pretty convincing as well yeah yeah no i mean

look i i get the whole i get the whole um china access as well and that's why i think that it makes sense that you can reframe this that iran was working is playing everybody against each other to get the maximum benefit and maximum revenge on all of the people who have them over over the years by keeping themselves in this position kind of like erdogan in turkey that's how erdogan is like plays nice with the i just did this this is literally popped into my head so i'm not this is not a fully formed thing but what have we said about erdogan all these years right he he plays the russians off of he plays he plays nice with the russians for a while then he plays nice with the israelis for a while then he hates the israelis and then he he threatens greece and

then he sucks up to the americans and then he tries to get money out of the europeans and all of this stuff but in order to carve an effect an independent path and i you know i used to describe this as a seven player game of go and you know you just you know who's got the it's not black and white stones but there's some purple stones and yellow stones in this one i said but but but but turkey they they have a special power and their special powers they can pick up a black or white stone whatever they want put whichever one on the table they want right so they can you know play that game and you know and don't uh you know don't don't hate the play i hate the game you know what i mean like and um or respect the player not you know in in the game because that's any

place as well right um and if iran was doing that and if the the mullahs have been doing that because they think that's their only chance of survival fine but at the end of the day again a nuclear weapons strategy where they have enough 60 uranium even if the iaea report is overstating it in order to make the overwhelming case as to why this was okay for the the israelis to do this now it's still you know it's still the numbers are just insane and it's enough to make you know freaking 20 bombs i'm like 50 bomb like no like no it's not acceptable we cannot have these it's like i don't want kim jong-un to have a nuclear bomb either that's why i prayed that's why i wanted trump to go over there and and do what needed to be done which was to open up relations

with them and then john bolton destroyed everything you know john bolton threw you know threw everybody under the bus and in in hanoi right um it is i want trump and um iran to succeed and everybody keeps saying well why can't iran agree to civilian enrichment and israel give up their nuclear weapons i'm like that's that's the solve i'm like i agree how do you get the israelis to that point after all this time where they've lived under this particular threat with these particular people at this important this moment in time that's going to be a hard sell to the israelis and it's also going to be an incredibly hard sell to netanyahu so while i can make the argument so then the question is as follows the negotiations real

or kayfabe this is the case this is the case and this is where i get really angry because i can tell you that 75 percent of the people who are dragging me through the mud on twitter and other places are saying the same thing trump lied about the negotiations he was negotiating in bad faith he wasn't ever trying he was just buying time for israel i mean israel could have pulled this fucking thing off whenever the hell they want to this the plans for this attack have been on the table for three years they have the drone factories they have the the massad guys and in you know with the rocket launchers or whatever they've used to knock out all the air and anti-aircraft systems Like, Iran was defenseless when the planes showed up.

That's the only thing. I mean, if you strip out the players and you just look at it as, you know, a military operation, a combined arms, military, a combined theater, a military, sorry, multimodal, this is the word I'm looking for, military operation, you're like, wow. It might be one of the greatest Things ever pulled off It's like that freaking pager incident Where they whacked out most of Hezbollah With fucking cell phones And anybody who doesn't want to believe that these things happened

Hezbollah stood down On Thursday Iran put the call out to the actions of resistance And the actions of resistance Didn't show up Yeah i mean you bring up the beepers too and i think that was uh when bb came to the white house and gave trump a golden beeper that's why i think like stuff like that feeds into the narrative

that like israel's controlling the u.s i know it feeds into that but the reality is is the following okay netanyahu i mean trump is pissed at netanyahu for what he did over for being the first one to run right up and congratulate joe biden for winning yeah while well trump was still fighting for and that's a big tell that netanyahu was always working for davos or city of london big tell but then you know here's another way of looking at this in the mob and these people our own mob bosses what's the one thing that's not tolerated betrayal you can run your little fiefdom as brutally as you want don't betray the family this is your lane yeah that's your area stay in your area yeah and that was adam and john's sort of thesis last night it's like trump

is finally like i just want to be done with this throw bb to the wolves like yeah well or even better putin's a mob boss netanyahu's a mob boss trump's a mob boss the iranians are a mob boss and who never ever ever ever ever ever honors their agreements the british iran no the british the british the british they always do this or davos they always do this so on this littered with this hell that what's what set up the bolshevik revolution was their was their betrayal of the turks at gallipoli are they i'm sorry and they left the and they left the australians to die hey richard poe's gone over richard poe's got an unbelievably well researched article on this and you look at it and you go and the downstream effects of that

is that it's so weak and bizarre that it set up the bolshevik revolution two years you know it was i'm like this is the way these people think they don't act like men they fight like i hate to say it they fight like fucking women yeah they stab you in the back with with iran what is the ultimate goal is a regime change to put in people they want or they want the mullahs to stay um i think the neocons want and davos want to have israel create regime change in order to put their guy in to meet the new boss same as the old boss so that way even if trump doesn't get involved they still get what they want like they have to you have to think this through it's like a flow chart to these people how do we get to where we need to go well there's

multiple paths and this is how we get there if netanyahu does not push for regime change that's a way if that's a tell that he's not even working for them anymore that the betrayal argument actually fits so he all he has to do is knock out their nuclear weapons capability wipe out terminally weak in the irgc dismantle the axes of resistance and then walk away and let a terminally weakened iran from that perspective pick up the pieces putin monitors the rest of it everybody knows that israel can show up tomorrow if they start trying to lob missiles at anybody again got news for you we're gonna do the same fucking thing again and they don't have to do anything more than that until they find until the iranian people

finally decide for themselves who's actually going to lead them because the because the the the theocracy is not well liked but that is true that does not mean that they want the shah the return the grandson of the shah so this is you know and what you'll hear out of the iranian diaspora is that he's the he's the dude like no that iranian diaspora is the same people that are working with the friggin city of city of london and the you know quote unquote the jews to effect regime change. So now play the game out. Trump is letting everybody hang themselves. And what did he say? Come back to the negotiating table. Come to me. So the other possibility said, was it kayfabe or was it real? The other side of that is that Trump negotiated a deal. It was a

good deal. It was unacceptable to the Israelis. It was also unacceptable to the city of London. And they said, nope, sorry, we're going. And Trump's like Okay I'll defend you But you better pull it off Because you're going to give Because Trump and Netanyahu can want Iran

To not have a nuclear weapon for different reasons Trump can just not want them to have nuclear weapons Because he wants a denuclearized Middle East Netanyahu could want Iran not to have a nuclear weapon To secure Israel's future And to pave the way for his You know, his colonial masters

to take the country over and break up the bricks and break up and you know create a an iran that could be used as a soft underbelly and point it then at the russians and break up the international north-south transport corridor and break up belton road yeah and i think the other thing that we haven't touched on that is an important piece of context for everything going on right now is the the big meeting in the middle east only a month ago with the united states and that tour that went on in abu dhabi and the emirates and qatar and other parts of the region that everybody came out very confident and uh optimistic after that and less than a month later you have all this right well here how about this trump i thought trump achieved more in getting everybody on board

with a plan to rebuild the middle east not along sectarian fake conflicts that were set In motion by the British and the French With Sykes-Picot and Balfour Declaration And World War II and all this crap To bring everybody together And say, okay, let's Fix all this We're going to pull our guys out of Syria

The SDF Kurds have made a deal With HTS In Damascus It's starting to happen The Saudis want to invest In the United States, the UAE They've even been trying to bring The Qataris in from the cold

right and iran and then everybody said iran could be a great country again even bb netanyahu and he never said that before in his statement on thursday night last week i'm not cherry picking here i'm bringing it up to people to understand i don't have a good answer about netanyahu i can i can give you the three five six seven faces of benjamin netanyahu and i can tell you that they're all maybe equally probable like i don't have a good read on the guy at this point in this moment what i'm trying to do is get everybody out of their one set narrative that they've been that they've been fed and that even i used to believe i don't believe it anymore i'm now i'm now in a state of flux trying to figure it all out for real not based on what somebody wants me to

believe okay and you know like where are we like you know we were there we had a trump achieved more in 10 days in the middle east than had been achieved in 10 years in terms of stitching the stitching the world together back together with commerce and trade and peace and all the rest of it honestly one of the most powerful presidential speeches abroad in my lifetime and like something Honestly, as a millennial who grew up with 9-11, Middle East wars, financial crisis, him going there and saying, hey, we're not here to nation build and do this for you. You guys are completely competent and able to do it yourself. That is a combination of humility and statesmanship that you want to see. Obviously, Trump is very brash and abrasive for a lot of people, but I think you have to acknowledge that that was a very strong speech.

and the message that needed to be sent like hey like he wants to do deals we want to do deals you're completely competent to build up your own countries like i'm looking around what you guys have done yourselves like you don't need us and i think that's what they exactly what they want to hear is just that mutual respect of we can do this you guys can do your thing and we can work together like that's what you want to hear i i agree with you i'm glad you brought it back up because i forgot all about it in all of this like i got focused on the deals i forgot about what he actually said and what you said in marty that's an unbelievably great claim and um it and it and it further underscores or undergirds most of what i'm saying which some of which of course is

contradictory because i'm putting out different versions of reality for you to pick one and slot all these bits and pieces into and then you decide for yourself which one is the best version of this we're going to find out in a couple of weeks because trump just set a new deadline you got two weeks to negotiate now come to the table because look what if netanyahu wasn't lying that iran negotiates like zelensky in fact come to the table to make the same demands as they've always made not actually agree to anything drag everything out drag everything out drag everything out and who who negotiates like that people who believe that their benefactors who standing behind them have their back and they don't respect the other person on the other side

of the negotiating table right that's how zelensky is being that's how zelensky acts in ukraine he knows that nato and he's being told by nato and brussels and london just wear them out we're going to get rid of trump we're going to take care of him and then everything will be fine and then we're going to come in and we're going to help you push out the evil russians if you even believe that zelensky's anything other than a puppet if you believe he's even even if you believe he's a ukrainian national which i don't but let's let's make the most generous read on him we can possibly come up with and then see if the if the facts fit that bullshit read right like no he's clearly working with them and this is their and and this is what their um their plan is and they've cooked

it up together and they're executing their strategy which is to do what they always do which is to never negotiate first they steal shit from you and then they negotiate for you to get your shit back from them that's what they do and from the russians perspective and from a historical perspective everything east of the dnieper is shit that the russians actually should have always owned and they're not even willing to negotiate to take to give them back the shit that they stole after the soviet union fell because the ukraine the the the borders of the of the ukraine ssr soviet socialist republic were created by khrushchev in 1954 okay inside the the inside the federation that was the ussr ukraine plus crimea was created

by those borders were created by khrushchev in the 50s or stalin one or the other it was never a real version of the country historically speaking if anything that is ukraine it's the area around kiev and that's it the rest of this is evidenced by crimeans identifying as everything from odessa to sumi return it off is pretty much russian everything around kiev you could call ukrainian everything around lvov because i refuse to call it lviv i refuse to ukrainify any of these things as far as i'm concerned he's vladimir zolensky because i don't even believe i'm not i'm so friggin over this whole ukrainification of the entire goddamn english language because i don't care that's another psyop like that's just me being a dick

by the way um it's kiev's yeah it's kiev by the way and it's odessa with two s's okay so um it's lavav because it's polish it's trans it's transcarpathia which is hungarian it's what i don't know the name of the area that's freaking romanian there's very little of ukraine that you could actually call ukraine and okay with the russians not taking that over i'm actually if i'm vladimir putin i don't want to take that over who the hell wants to be ruled well what's the rule those people they hate us but everything east into the deeper like the russians are just claiming their territory from their perspective i'm not saying it's you know i'm not saying it's

not gonna be without conflict and i'm certainly not saying that it's you know that the russians aren't you know overstating their case everybody engages in propaganda the right the iranians do it the russians do it the israelis do it the dabosians do it the americans do it the british do it everybody does it the best laws have a have a kernel of truth to them yeah and that's why i love talking about you and this is something that anybody listening to this needs to realize is like you're being propagandized by every side and it's trying to dissect the propaganda from each direction and figure out exactly what's going on moreover their propaganda has different flavors russian propaganda looks different than american

propaganda which looks different than british propaganda which looks different than chinese propaganda which looks different than iranian propaganda like they have different flavors to them they use different techniques they don't all use the same technique so this is why i when i when people keep coming back to me yeah ron's been trying to you know two weeks away from the nuclear weapon for 30 years i know it's a stale talking point doesn't mean it's not true partially today right now right right now doesn't mean it's not true go look at the facts dexter white and i you know dexter white tells me all the time when i start going off half cock he's like dude facts matter so i'm gonna so then he spends all day like you know looking at all the

facts that he can find that are that he can trust that means not the five generated facts that are out there not this fact you know and then you gotta then you gotta be looking at shit like he does like you know and the way he does it and you're like yeah i i have to have become an expert in the circular arrow projection of the missiles that are being lobbed at each other and the this and the that and how big the payload is and what the range is

and know all of that before you can even get an idea. Well, like on the Iran two weeks away from nuclear war, everybody likes to call somebody like, you're the boy who cried wolf. And they say it in the context of like nothing

ever happens, but like in the parable or the story of the boy who cried wolf, eventually got eaten by wolf like it actually happened eventually the wolf actually attacks and maybe that's where we are yeah and the parable is you shouldn't cry wolf and this is part of the reason why netanyahu um has outlived it may have outlived his usefulness to everyone including to trump and then the question is who's zooming who who's using who and who's using who how and i don't have a perfect answer for that i would i wish i did even if i did have a perfect answer for it here's the truth 75 of the people listening to my voice right now won't believe it

anyway because when you've been propagandized too hard it doesn't matter how many facts i put in front of you you can't convince somebody who wants to believe something else with facts yeah well bringing this back to facts and based on everything we just discussed over the last hour and really drawing back on the beginning of the conversation with the inversion of the short-term rates and wow all the central banks lowering rates like do you think this is like a last-ditch effort by the davos class to really just like send things into pure chaos in hopes that people get so discombobulated they they sort of go the direction

that they would like to push the world. That's exactly what I think this is. I think I spent a lot of time with Martin Armstrong and Alex up in Calgary last month. And in my conversations with Marty, it became

pretty obvious that we're reaching the endgame where the Europeans can continue to play their game of extend and pretend that they're not broke that their economies aren't crushed that canada is going to continue to be one big beautiful country of you know maple syrup drinking hockey playing you know sorries you know like no like the canadian every freaking albertan that i talked to and i talked to a lot of them were like this place is done. When are we leaving? Okay. So, and I, you know, and, and I love them for it. And I love

them for it because I also realized that they don't have any illusions left about what's happened to their country. They know their country's fucked. We Americans still have holdout hope that our country isn't terminally fucked and they're in a much better place to do what needs to be done than we are but here's the difference the difference is america still has a lot to offer itself if it can just get out of its own way and get its own get the traders elements within it out the system may that we currently have may not survive but america can survive the idea of america can still survive and morph into something new wiser hopefully more humble but the old system that we've all grown up under that dollar hegemonic you know

undead baby of the fucking british empire which is what we are can go away you know this undead zombie running around like rambo without a goddamn jockstrap pissing everybody off and destroying brown people for freedom it's fucking it's fucking terrible none of us want that anymore nobody wants it nobody wants it other than other than lindsey fucking grant yeah that motherfucker it's like how people of south carolina what do you i mean it's probably not them there may be some manipulation there but sure get that guy out of office but and that like to your point too first thing on the on the uh conversation of u.s versus america i mean your florida panthers just beat

the uh the oilers again and stanley cut that may be an omen there in terms of uh dominance over canada i'm a little sad because i'm actually an oilers fan at heart and i would like i would like to see mcdavid win one yeah i just i'm just i'm an oilers fan at heart now and uh i've watched them come close now twice but florida has a florida has better coaches and a better goaltending and a better this this slightly better team slightly better not much but you know you got to learn to lose before you can win so yeah a little divergent hockey talk there but you can feel it like there's a very clear like we're like reaching this precipice where you can see both paths like we devolve into the sort of mismanaged globalist world that we've been living

through my whole life at least or you can feel the energy or people just want to go build shit and move humanity forward like i can feel it i'm leveraging the tools and it does feel like we're at that sort of that atomic point where like it explodes and we figure out which way we're going and yeah i like to look at it and when i when i do the the chemistry argument i like to look at it as we're just we're getting up we've run up the energy cliffs that we need to do and the it's activation energy no matter what happens in a chemical reaction no matter how spontaneous it is or or energetically favorable is there has to be a period of reorganization where we have a we have this stable we have this compound we have that compound but these two really do want to

react with each other and form this compound but to get there there has to be a reorganization this is why gibbs free energy is both enthalpy internal energy and entropy internal disorder right and so changing those things to determine whether uh you know delta g to change in free energy is equal to delta h change in enthalpy minus temperature times the tangent entropy delta g is equal to delta h minus t delta s the entropy part of the equation that's a gross macro statement about the whether it can happen get to that process to get to the other side of the process there's always a reorganization where bonds have to be broken and reform and there's these transition states that happen where the old bonds have to break

and then they reform right into something new there's an energy cost to get the that happen you got to put energy into the system generally to get that reorganization and what you're saying is we're right at the cliff of that where we hit the top of the activation energy curve and then we fall over. And if it's a spontaneous thing, it'll go boom. Some reactions are really quick and some, and then they go. And sometimes they start slowly, but then the energy that they release fuels the reorganization that we've had. We worked so hard to get until it becomes a runaway train the best reaction i can talk to about that is like the thermite reaction right iron rust plus aluminum metal creates a molten iron and aluminum oxide it's a very entropy

driven reaction it has a huge activation energy but it's so exothermic on the back end that it becomes this it's like a nuclear it's like just like nuclear fission once it starts then it goes right um and that the catalyst to get that thing started there's a number of ways of doing it you start it off quickly by using a magnesium stick and getting it started magnesium burning with oxygen is a huge amount of energy you can also start it with sodium hydroxide you can just pour some lye a lye solution on it and eventually there's enough energy there and it takes a lot and so you can pour it on there and then walk away and you can be in the next fucking county before the thing starts you know there's multiple ways of starting a reaction and i think that one

of the things that you know what davos does is to thieve that activation energy to keep us from ever getting to that reorganization that we sort of all desperately so so want and this iran israel perpetual war is one of those ways that we thieve all of our energy because we're spending all this energy and all this money and all this time and energy everything else making weapons to keep each other from from keep these two from fighting each other and all the diplomacy and all the aid and all the this and all of that that's all freaking waste it's all just tamping down the activation energy to create something new and better wouldn't it be a wonderful world and we can like say you know what we don't need to use any of that stuff to make those weapons anymore

We can take all that technology that we use to fight this war that we don't need to fight, and all that technology can now be used to build a better world. And I can have my flying cars, and I can have my this, and I can have my that, and we can move on with a better life. And that's why we live in such a fallen world. That's why it's 2025, and every day we get up and it still looks like it's 1985. The only difference is like, you know, the graphics on the on the television screen are better because, you know, and and, you know, the the signs have been updated at the local fast food joint. But we're still eating fat. We're still eating crappy fast food. We're still driving the same streets.

We're still basically driving the same cars. You know, I mean, like nothing's changed. Like and you got to ask yourself where all the money go. It went into serving all of these divergences, which keep us from being mission, you know, purpose-built, mission-focused to make humanity better. And, you know, I'm sorry, but I look around the world and I say to myself, whose MO is that? And it's always the same people. It's the ones with the colonialist mindset that they're going to take from everybody else for themselves. And, you know, unfortunately, America, big sin, was being subsumed into that model by our British and European forebears.

And, you know, that's our sin. So can we expiate our sin, please? and we're going to do that by ending this bullshit conflict between israel and iran do you think we can do it and like the other thing too like if you're running with your thesis at davos and england who's behind this specifically like if you look domestically at england it's not looking great either like that's evolving there yeah it's no don't use the word england my friend ian burlingame has to remind me that you use the term british to describe the traitors to the to to english to english society and england is the thing that's

been left behind what he very rightly points out is that look the english gave us the magna carta the english destroyed the monarchy and the feudal system we are the inheritors in america of english of the gifts of the of of of the englishman who created all these things created that first technological level up like it's like the code of Hammurabi then the code Magna Carta then the constitution in terms of our influence on the evolution of of human organizational principles we learned a lot of stuff from the Native Americans we took what the what was in the Magna Carta and from English society we melded it openly melded it with what we saw from the Native Americans and created the Constitution. And of course, the people who are still wedded

to the old feudal belief systems that there should be an overclass of lords that has every right to rule over humanity, why wouldn't they be trying to do everything they can to destroy the one set of colonies that got away and created the system that repudiates their system at the at the philosophical level why do you think they hate us so much marty it's because of that because every day that america exists and and and proves their systems is shit is another day that they can't rule the world and we have the opportunity they have to destroy america the idea not just america the country they have to prove to humanity that free markets don't work that individualism doesn't work or some form of individualism whatever that may be and you know

i used to be a hyper individualist i'm not really sure what the heck i am anymore and you know i i don't care i'll figure out what i am on the other side of this crisis period i still want to be that person but i don't know that i can be that person and you know and and i think you know it's the same thing that you know every time you and i have this conversation we get into like the the the the philosophy of bitcoin and decentralization and all of these things i just i remind the older i get the more i want to caution people about being wedded to any one particular version of the future because you know as as humans we may not be ready for that what your version of the future as opposed to the one that's going to show up you know we may be

wrong and what we want to do is we want to define ourselves as to what we believe in as opposed to what we oppose and keep it and keep ourselves philosophically focused on our ethos what it is who we are because again going back to the greeks if you have an ethos then you have the ability to have a telos part of the problem that i think personally that the libertarians have had is that they've always defined themselves as to what they're not they're not keynesians they're not they're not collectivists they're not this they are trying to say they believe in individualism but have they have they really defined that as okay though how do you build something from that how do you turn that philosophy into something that's real how do you turn that how do you make

that statement that says i am this and therefore because of this i am going to build that i i'm not against that idea i think that is where i think that's exactly what libertarians are trying or libertarianism at its core is that's where i went and when i found most libertarians don't believe in that most libertarians just have oppositional defiance disorder and they don't know how to they don't know how to navigate the real world and that they're purely spiral into saying i have to be this hyper individualist as opposed to being my goal is to minimize suffering not eliminate it minimize it yeah now to um to report about bitcoin and bitcoin i think that's actually something i'm very happy that has materialized

in the last three to four years specifically is like this idea is like you're right for the longest time it was fuck the state anarcho-capitalists like let's just go build something in parallel and people will adopt it but i think with the attacks from the biden administration funnily enough like the industry got to a point where it's like hey you may not care about political power but it cares about you and if you if you understand that uh you gotta pull your pants up put your boots on and get in the war because like you gotta live in a world with a certain reality you may think it's got to be this way but it operates this way and with that in mind like engage well yeah and well it's nothing again it's exactly what i was saying

about the fed about this i again i've always said the same thing you keep your goal on the horizon you don't have to achieve your goal by linearly moving in that direction you can make alliances of other people i invoke justin ramondo trying to get the bring the anti the real true anti-war elements of american society to come together as a political force after 9-11 to counteract what the neocons were doing and he failed miserably he was right blue rockwell was right the whole of that that group of people they were completely right and they couldn't do it you want to know why because the greens were never individuals they were never anti-war they were always fake anti-war they were just commies and commie and they were really just trotskyites

and trotskyites are the sect of communism that believes in perpetual warfare for for perpetual revolution guess what so with the neocons and so the greens and the neo so why do you think german greens morphed into neocons on foreign policy because they always wear warm maybe because they were always constructed the city of london who was promulgating the that who were who were seeding that into the zeitgeist the entire time and when you go back over and you start really going back over the history of all these political movements since common turn you come to some very startling um conclusions about how the ic fucked with you know art and music and this and that and everything else the media all of it in order and it's not just the jews it's actually even worse

in that it's i just don't it's actually everybody who just wants power and that the sad part is that modern communists don't realize that they're the useful idiots for the very people that they think they're trying to fight and the libertarians are purity spiraling into the same position and i'm just like i'm over it i don't care i'm not interested i want to win well yeah it's not productive and you got to want to win you gotta whether you like it or not the game exists the players are on the board and you got to operate within that system right and sometimes with that in mind sometimes you might have to make a deal with a dragon in order to get to where you need to go which is what i told the mises institute back in october and i was

laughed and i was i was run out of the room on a rail and called a clown and they refused to they refused to publish the speech so suck it tom diorenzo i'm winning you're losing but that's well that might on winning like ultimately winning it seems i don't know if it's clear but many people are making out to be like the next this summer is critical in terms of how we thread the needle to get on the other side i agree i agree what are what are what are your thoughts there like ultimately what would be an ideal scenario or a progression of events between now and labor day um that would get us to the other side like america to rip yeah so an ideal progression of events is that's the easy one that's the one i love that one i

don't think we're going to get there but that's the easy one um it's iran comes to the table makes a deal and repudiates davos right and then forces the israelis to back down and go okay well mission accomplished you stopped it from getting a nuclear weapon you're good to go but oh by the way, Israel, you no longer have your Kazis Belay, so you don't need to be pursuing things the way you have in the past. You've been betrayed by your masters, or you tried to do

their bidding, however you want to put it. We're going to kill those guys. We're in the process of killing those guys in the financial markets right now. We're going to start destroying them. We're going to see all the frameworks for a sovereign debt crisis to emerge in Europe, which is going to turn into a political crisis

next year. This is the Martin Armstrong timeline. I think that's on the table the the uh the budget uh reconciliation big beautiful budget reconciliation bill passes through the senate basically back to the house for any small changes it gets through trump no longer needs his trump no longer needs congress where he has a very thin majority he's able to claim victory that hey we had a war everybody thought it was going to be a forever war i got had done in two weeks and only a few people died as opposed to hundreds of millions and were on the path to peace and putin agrees with that putin and the russians do what they need to

do in in ukraine if davos starts to collapse if if europe really starts to collapse and there's a run on the pound there's a run of the euro and all that stuff then zelensky's support in in kiev will will collapse he'll be killed and the ukrainians will come to the table and the russians will um um negotiate a very uncomfortable piece um and uh by the fall by labor day you know the stock market will have to deal with a lot of churn and and whatnot but by labor day scott besant's out there rolling out um you know scott besant and bill pulty are rolling fanny and freddie out of conservatorship relisting them doing all that all that work and then we can start fixing the american housing market the um and everything else and the

american middle class can can monetize and extract their equity from their homes in order to really jumpstart the economy interest rates fall howell cuts to three percent and trump can start the golden age process. That's the optimal outcome. It's not going to be without its hiccups. It's not going to be without its crisis. If there's a sovereign debt crisis in Europe and that starts to unwind, sure. Are we going to have banks fail in the United States? Is the Fed going to have to come in and provide temporary liquidity and whatnot as they're supposed to, as is their freaking job, whether you like it or not? It's not QE, zero hedge, get the fuck over yourself. It's the Fed doing their job as opposed to all the shit that they used to do where they were

doing davos's job no and we've already watched mark carney and and and others execute one of the most vicious financial attacks that i have seen in my lifetime and it was over in four days so what was that so for the the the tariff tantrum back in april mm-hmm just that they were attacking the sofa strip they weren't they weren't doing like the basis trade that everybody was talking about and i think i might have my first version of this was that it was actually they were attacking what's known as the sofa strip like from the the sofa futures curve from like six months out to three years and basically it's a basis trade now but

they were attacking sofa the sofa futures market and within five days it was over because they ran out of money it was actually on a podcast earlier today with a canadian equipped back yeah and he was he was saying like the canadian government has something like 50 billion canadian dollars on its balance like it has no reserves like it's sold off all its gold it's no they have they have 350 billion dollars worth of worth of us treasuries that's all they have yeah yeah they have nothing and they sold 14 of them in april now they're going to have to and what was the net effect of this marty this is the dumbest play imaginable the net effect was trump still put the tariffs on all these currencies went up by 15 10

to 15 you know what that did it just made the tariffs twice as expensive okay and they didn't get the so and and they didn't get on the bed to come in and have to go back to the zero bound the fed's still holding interest rates at four and a half percent like it's it well it's as big a red-ass beat down as what israel put on iran on thursday well that's that begs the question i go back to what i said in the beginning about trump and his positioning towards powell like what like is that k-fob i think so yeah i think i think trump is setting up for a much different federal reserve chair next year when powell's term ends one of the things i was i was chatting with a guy earlier today i did a shorter interview this morning with somebody this afternoon um with

someone i had never spoken to before so we had a we kept it short um not because not for any other reason that he knew i was really tired i've done a lot of interviews this week and i've been i put in like four straight 17 hour days and i'm fucking exhausted man i'm not gonna lie but what i came what came out of that to remind him i said look if you look at powell besant and trump what do you hear out of the maggie guys all the time the kind of orange jesus talk about he didn't have to do this he's put his family's honor on the line and all this money and this that and he's sacrificing for his own country right it's a and i'm not arguing that that that he didn't do that he did do that and i appreciate that he did that and i still appreciate that he's

attempting to do the right thing even if he makes some mistakes here and there i'm on board i'm loyal to trump at this point because he i don't what else have i got scott besant you could argue very carefully you can argue very easily scott besant had billions of dollars he could be sitting on his private island, you know, doing whatever he wants to do. He made all of his money in the world. He doesn't need to go do this. He doesn't need to go walk into Washington, D.C. and run the Treasury Department to fix this mess that Janet Yellen created and change the country. No, he's decided to put his own personal, his retirement, this is part of his legacy. You can make the same argument about jerome powell daniel d martino booth absolutely did all through 2021 and 2022

saying powell doesn't need this shit he'd go back to private equity and make billions of dollars if he wanted to knowing full well that that lael brainer would have taken over sent us back to zero bound i got news for you jerome powell could have made as much money as he absolutely wanted to more than you could ever imagine he could have wanted to if those those conditions existed and yet here he is slogging away as the fed chair getting getting shit from everybody the whipping boy the whipping boy for everyone and executing the most powerful needle thread in monetary history they're all the same guy it's all the same story like focusing on pal too because you've handedly convinced me over the last two years having these

conversations about what's going on at the fed like i've again and you've said it too like not a big fan of the federal reserve but if you're again working within the confines of a game set before you of course i think he's handling it pretty well and i'm just curious like was volker a hero when because everybody oh like everybody harkens back to volker as like the supreme example of the fed chair that you want to be remembered as like was he liked at all when he was doing um what i would i would actually argue now understanding the game that i do now the way i do now that what volcker did by creating by setting by doing what he did he had to do it but by doing what he did he actually gave us the libor standard that nearly destroyed the country

interesting because he raises interest rates into 1980 81 we get the nasty recession by 1983 we're coming out of it 1984 libor is instantiated around the world as the debt indexing rate of of the of the the new dollar reserve system then we get the g5 and the positive chord 1985 setting um setting the the currency bans and then they hand it off to alan greenspan who fucks everybody now did volker you know was volker working for the u.s at that point or was he working for the the group that was transferring power from the bank of ink by proxy and to the federal reserve that's a good question and so i'm not i'm not you know you it's a good actually marty it's a phenomenal question because i actually hadn't considered volker from that perspective

that i just laid out for you until you asked the question because i'd never actually thought of volker that way i'm like oh right it makes perfect sense that volker then has to fix the you know i i had been saying i've said before i'm like in 1971 the dollar reserve standard was birth but it didn't you know achieve maturity until after bulker fixed everything fixed all the the the excess of the vietnam war and bretton woods so you heard yeah it's a good question i'm not saying it's true you can argue with me about it i'll be happy to have a an r a classic argument not a not a debate or a throwdown or any of the bullshit but an honest to god argument in classical sense of the word argument without

any negative connotations yeah we need more arguments so in the bitcoin space we have a lot of meetups are called socratic seminars you have a socratic um distillation of of current events which is excellent try to more socrates more socrates yeah yeah that's it's it's fascinating i mean for i mean the last two conversations before this one very optimistic are you more worried now than you were last fall beginning of this year this is very dangerous where we are right now. Trump could easily make a mistake. He has personality deficits that they're trying to use against him to get him to make an unforced error. Bombing Fordow is an unforced error. Chris Fordow at this point should be dismantled by ground troops. The place should be

filled with cement is what we should do with it. but we shouldn't bomb it. Because you have no fallout. We don't need no fallout. Well, I don't think that, I'm not worried about, it's so far underground, I'm not worried about radiation or this.

I'm talking about making sure that it never comes back. Because all of those, we can't just bomb the front door and then we can, then six months later, somebody goes in, pulls out all the rubble,

grabs all the centrifuges and starts this thing all over again. No, this has to be a permanent solution. And I worry that Trump would use, you know, a bunch of bunker busters and b2s to go in there and you know drop the moabs and do the thing and because he likes that because it's grandiose and it's a big gesture and it's a shock and awe it's the same thing that truman did when he dropped the bomb it would be the same equivalent of the same mistake

truman made when he was he was coerced by not coerced but convinced by the british to drop the atom bomb on hiroshima nagasaki which are um war crimes that we will never ever ever as americans be able to live down that was a mistake it was unnecessary it was unnecessary the japanese wanted to surrender they just needed the safe face because it's an asian culture and truman made a huge mistake so i'm hoping that trump doesn't make that mistake i am absolutely hoping for it i would rather i would rather commit troops on the ground as an american to helping the israelis wipe out fordow to then drink then bring in the b2s it's just that simple i i mean and i and i say that with all the all the requisite reservations that's how much i do not want iran

to have the ability to spin up a nuclear weapon for all the things that i've talked about tonight because of all the fungibility and all the levers of all the the the fulcrum of power that that enables that i just that you know all the things i've talked about in this podcast that thing is that as a project is too much i don't want israel to get away either i'm hoping that the reports i saw that iran bombed demona are true i don't want the israelis to have this as well i don't i don't want them i want india and pakistan to sign the mpt i want if israel isn't didn't if iran didn't get them on i want israel to sign the goddamn mbt like one of the things that people forget about all of this is that nuclear weapons are really expensive to maintain the warheads degrade

because the uranium half-life the hydrogen embrittlement of all the uh and the neutron embrittlement of all the casings all that stuff is that it's uh there are very specific maintenance schedule refresh uh refresh schedule and you know you have to you have to wonder just how much money that costs israel which is a very small country right how much it's costing pakistan who's paying for all that are we paying for it are we paying for pakistan's nuclear arsenal is india are we paying for india's are we paying for you know are we paying for israel what if trump says i'm not paying for any of that anymore and then all those nuclear programs just degrade as a matter of literally dissipate they degrade as a matter of deep depreciation i you know with the half-life

of uranium 238 what uh you know this better than i but can you 235 i'm turn can you turn uh weapons grade uranium into energy yes yes absolutely so the reason why the iranian market was so suppressed for years was because the russians were good as their word and that they dismantled hundreds and hundreds of nuclear bombs the ones they got from ukraine they dismantled they were then mixed down that fuel was then mixed down turned into what are called single work units that's how nuclear energy is you know it's how it's that's that's the unit they use that the normal is the normalized yes so you mix it down and then you send it off as nuclear fuel so there was this huge stockpile of uranium that was had to be sold off that lasted until around

2018 because the russians have run out of stuff to mix down you know me you know me i'm always going to tie it back to bitcoin bitcoin ties into denuclearization shout out to elaine owl who wrote this blog post like seven years ago now at this point the way you guarantee denuclearization is you degrade it to energy an energy use case and then you plug in bitcoin miners and you prove via the bitcoin mining hash rate going up that you are denuclearizing in real time and you prove it yeah yeah yeah and you prove it that's yeah that's beautiful dude it's it's it's excellent and you store and and each country begins to accumulate bitcoin yeah yeah i mean on top of everything else we're accumulating bitcoin we're doing the thing where we're we're turning we're

turning all of this we're turning all of this wasted energy this stuff i talked about earlier this wasted crap and we turn that waste into something into tokenized money that we can use And then we can use it to build beautiful things with. We can use it to rebuild society and civilization as opposed to the feral state that we've been reduced to by these fucking assholes. I think we just solved the world's problems there. Hopefully we get this in the hands of Trump.

While I was thinking too, I can't wait for the day. I know it's going to happen. I'm going to manifest this for you. When Jerome Powell is finally relieved from his duties at the Federal Reserve, you two sit down have a cigar and talk about everything i'm uh i'm envisioning and manifesting that in my head because i just want to talk to you off the record to learn about that conversation so the funny part about that is that i will invoke the grant morrison and tell you to do

your chaos magic and draw and write that out as a sigil and then you know set it out into the world yeah we're gonna do that now i'm uh i can hear my wife is in her third trimester uh banging on the door saying it's time for dinner so absolutely congratulations marty i hope that we don't if we don't speak in between now and the time when your next child is born 2 10 11 eyes fingers toes like the old adams family joke right so the uh it's always a pleasure sir it's always a great way to end the week and hopefully we can do it again by the end of the summer hopefully things have absolutely gotten better more clarity but thank you for spending the end of your week with me sir

i appreciate it thank you for the opportunity as always enjoy all right peace and love freaks freaks thank you for listening to the show i hope you liked it if you did like it please make sure you subscribe rate review the show it helps us out a lot and also if you like these conversations i've come to realize that many people listen to the podcast they don't know we have another sort of layer of this media company we have the newsletter the bitcoin brief go to tftc.io make sure you subscribe there a lot of the topics that are discussed on this podcast i write about five days a week in the newsletter we also have the tftc elite tier if you sign up for that become a member we have a private discord server for the elite freaks out there where we're dropping

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