TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #637: From Industrial Debt to Digital Abundance with Jordi Visser

Episode Date: July 9, 2025

Marty sits down with Jordi Visser to discuss how AI is breaking traditional economic indicators, why Bitcoin represents the future S&P 500, and how energy bottlenecks could constrain the coming AI revolution while private companies increasingly avoid going public. Jordi Visser on Twitter: https://x.com/jvisserlabs STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBz Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Coinkite https://coinkite.com Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free if you talk about a fed just gone nuts all all the central banks going nuts so it's all acting like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. Jordy Visser, thank you for joining me. Good to be here, Marty. As I was saying, I've been a big fan of your weekly updates. I think you're on top of converging trends better than most people right now, particularly as it pertains to AI, Bitcoin, broader crypto, and how it's

actually affecting the markets right now. And I think a good jumping off point for this conversation is something that you've been talking about a lot, which is this dislocation between leading economic indicators and what's actually happening in the sense that many indicators that people have been depending on for decades seem to be sending off alarm bells that things may not all be well. But I think your thesis is that AI is having an overwhelming effect on the market that is making those what have been dependable indicators independable right now. Yeah, it's actually interesting. I'm going to – I'll go backwards a little bit so people can understand the rationale behind it because I think it's one of the more important points. And there's a jumping off point where I really started to recognize.

So I grew up in the business starting in the early 90s as a macro person. I traded emerging markets throughout the 90s. And I spent a lot of time with the history of the LEI, leading economic indicators, and Jeffrey Moore, because not a lot of people follow it. But it was an extremely useful tool a long time ago to predict, and this is why it was created, to help the government see when the economy was slowing down so monetary policy wouldn't be as late and fiscal policy wouldn't be as late. So you kind of fast forward to 1980. The LEI came out in the 60s, and something really important changed, and the personal computer came out, then the internet in the 90s. And then we obviously started to get into the true internet boom in the 2000s and the software and smartphone boom that kind of took over the 2009 to 2010 period. So what I've basically said is that the economy has been changing.

So if you go back to when the LEI was created, it was basically an industrial economy and that was it. There was no digital economy because we didn't have the personal computer yet. So if you go from really the beginning or the end of the Great Depression and you start going back in history and learning how the government would try to measure the concept of GDP, the actual index was created in the 1930s by Simon Kuznets. So this stuff was all meant to be around tangible assets, tangible goods, tangible transactions. And obviously, as the digital economy started to grow, let's assume it was, you know, less than one percent of the of the U.S. economy by 1990. Then the Internet comes and it's it's growing rapidly, but from such a small base. And this will resonate with, you know, people that have been involved in Bitcoin since 2009. It was very small asset. It's grown bigger. Well, the digital economy has grown bigger as well.

So what happens is the industrial economy still has a lot of people working in it, still has a lot of debt in it. So the reason the LEI is no longer sending off good signals is really one important event occurred in 2007 and 2009 when the great financial crisis happened. The digital economy, in my opinion, forced that event to occur. It created a situation where you had so much debt for other companies that were already seeing their businesses being disrupted. And most people don't think of it that way. But go to the last time you actually used a bank teller that was before the great financial crisis. So we've been having disruptions for a long time. And when the great financial crisis happened, the government had to stand up and assume the debt. And so we went from $9 trillion in debt for the U.S. government back in 2007 to where we are today, which is a massive problem. Bitcoin white paper comes out just after Lehman Brothers and all these events kind of come in. So what's happened is now we're left with a an industrial economy, which is relatively big, but not growing anymore and shrinking a government, which is there to balloon or take

over that part of the economy. And then you've got the digital economy, which is growing extremely fast, but has no debt and very few people. And that's where we're at. And that's why the LEI is no longer a useful signal because the industrial economy is not what's generating the wealth and the growth evident in the S&P 500 consumption and actually the disruption. It's only going to get worse from here. So that's the reason why when I spend time on, hey, how can the LEI be trading 35 months in a row at a level that historically was always a recession and not have one? And the reason is because the digital economy is really supporting the market and growing along with the government economy and so this is a combination of watching

your updates obviously being immersed in bitcoin for years uh investing in the space and really studying bitcoin and over the last three years as ai has proliferated using those tools incorporating them into my workflow into our business here at tftc and at 1031 like it the sentiment i think you do a really good job like pulling this out it's like equally unnerving and exciting at the same time because there's so much potential but if you use the tools you understand what they do to your business and you extrapolate that out to not only small medium-sized businesses but large corporations, the S&P 500, the disruption is going to be massive. But at the same time, there's these incredible opportunities. So how are you thinking about approaching

this disruption and navigating this transition? Well, the first thing you said to start this off, equally unnerving and whatever upside word you want to use for the potential. uh philosophically i just have that viewpoint in life um there's nothing that goes on that isn't just a relationship between those two things um i i wrote a sub stack recently that was all about a quote that i gave to my oldest daughter uh that i've used throughout which is life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood and i still believe that So for me, that means that there's no way to change the reality of artificial intelligence and what it means. You can either sit back and let it eat you up like all innovations.

You know, I reference, since you watch my videos, I reference Joseph Schumpeter a lot, who, you know, is the father of creative destruction. And if you go back and read his works, and most of them were in the 30s and 40s, so almost 100 years ago, he talked about how capitalism will eventually cannibalize itself through creative destruction. That innovation will continue to go more rapidly. It'll destroy more jobs. It'll continue to, like a tsunami, take everything in its path. and as individuals that are in the workforce you know i try to teach my kids the balance in life is that work is not your identity your identity is you get one life to enjoy it and you have to go through it and i see that with bitcoin um i've mentioned in the you know the few times that i've

gone i started with raul paul and i obviously have a long-term relationship because we both had similar roles on wall street and then as time has gone on i've built a very strong relationship with Anthony Pompliano. And between those two, I've been to events and I've met a lot of people that have been there. And so I think the people that have found Bitcoin find it for both hope, they find it for entertainment in terms of meme coins and trading, and they find it for hopefully creating wealth. Well, that's really what the old world was when you went to school, you got a job, you hope to move up to corporate ladder. But it sounds kind of boring. I view this world as more exciting. And I think if people embrace artificial intelligence and they just spend time with it and

build a relationship with it, they can be part of the creative destruction as opposed to sitting there and watching the tsunami come in. And so I try to do the videos to both inspire, let's say peers, but probably more importantly for the peers who've already made money to make sure that their kids are prepared for it because it will, if you're just sitting there trying to take it on and doubt it uh believe it's hype uh you're gonna get swept over by by the wave and i'm trying to make sure that people do it so i i don't think it's any different than the past i just think innovation's moving at a faster pace this time yeah no i was tweeting this out last week i've been having i've been experimenting with vibe coding we vibe coded uh a browser

extension that converts any u us dollar or any fiat price you see on the web into bitcoin and And it took me like three hours on a Saturday to create the prototype for that. And then we iterated on it and launched it about a month and a half ago. And it's crazy to see that we were able to do that with a very minimal capital investment in actually building a product and just talking with people who are really immersed in AI in terms of incorporating it into their business flows. We have teams of two in the portfolio that are building extremely complex applications just by leveraging AI. They're extending the productivity of the individual by orders of magnitude with these tools.

And then I'm not sure if you caught Amjad Massad on Joe Rogan, but I watched that. And I'm coming to there's this doomerism that exists with people looking at AI and saying it's going to really take the humanity out of things. And I think it's actually the opposite, where, to your point, if you have the agency and the ability to experiment and the will to experiment with these tools, it can actually unleash human creativity. And I think that is going to be the differentiator moving forward as you give AI all the basically data inputs and sort of complex analyst jobs that are that are a bit monotonous and that people are doing right now. And some of them are making a lot of money, but it's really soul sucking. And you leverage AI to pull out your creativity and bring something to the world with these tools. yeah it's again i i guess for everyone it depends on what they they find entertaining um i know artificial intelligence has replaced a lot of the activities i did that i probably didn't

realize how mindless they were where i used them to almost rest my brain um things like tv and you know any anything along those lines where i wasn't learning i'm an insatiable learner but learning was more challenging before artificial intelligence you had to you know you had to go digging for it you had to go find what you wanted i'm more of a and always have been a conversationalist i get bored very easily so if i can sit across the table from someone extremely um intelligent to where they i'll leave the conversation after one hour and there might be you know nine new places that I'm going to go dig into, nine new holes for me to go down. I call them dots. I love it. But unfortunately, that doesn't happen that often. And so if I'm at a dinner, particularly on Wall

Street, and I get bored by the people there, I want to leave. And then my empathy is like, you can't get up. It's rude to just get up and leave. But I view it as a waste of two hours. Now with artificial intelligence, I get to talk to the smartest person all day long. There's never a boring conversation, which means if you like learning, if you like, you know, being a child again, where we learn most of the things, it's really easy to do. So I can consume, you know, 50 books a week. And I would say at this point, between podcasts and books, I can consume about 50 a week. Now, am I listening to every single minute of every single podcast? No, because I'm getting the transcripts in a lot of cases. If there's fluff, if it's someone who's engaging,

and I want to sit there because it helps me walk around the park and listen to it, then I will. But if I get bored by it, I download the transcript, and then I have a conversation with ChatGPT about it. And until you do that, until you kind of experience what it would be like to talk to a documentary as opposed to watching a documentary and realizing how you can actually get the parts that you want to get, I don't think people have fully embraced artificial intelligence. It is the single best entertainment tool for me that I've ever seen. It's like walking into a virtual library and just having everything in front of your eyes, or Iron Man and watching Jarvis in front of Tony Stark. I mean, it's just an amazing thing. So I get excited about it. It's

been one of the greatest times for me since ChatGPT was launched. Sup, freaks? This rep of TFTC was brought to you by our good friends at CoinKite. They make the cold card queue, my favorite hardware wallet, the most secure hardware wallet on the market. As you can see, it's got the BlackBerry form factor, full keyboard. It's got two secure enclaves you create your private public keys offline the device never has to go online never does go online so you keep your bitcoin secure if you have your bitcoin on exchanges and you're looking to get it off secure it in the best way possible pick up a cold card queue go to coin kite.com find the cold card queue use the code tftc for five percent off

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in your browser on your local device it's a great way to recalibrate your life and begin thinking in sats go check it out at opportunitycost.app that's opportunitycost.app And so bringing this back to like hard data, like anecdotally, we're using it and incorporating it into our everyday lives. But what are you seeing in terms of the early adopters, say the MAG-7 or like how do you how do you view its effects on these large corporations and even smaller sort of upstarts that could potentially disrupt them? And how is it beginning to materialize in the economic data? so there's a there's a few things happening um that i've already gone through first of all starting with the personal computer we have seen profit margins uh in the u.s in particular just continue to climb higher i don't think people have fully recognized that it started really

with the personal computer it accelerated with the internet with the smartphone and it's continuing to go now the s&p 500 is something people you know they understand they're invested in it I don't think they fully grasp the other angle. So let's just say the S&P 500, by definition, these are incumbents. And they may not be old incumbents, because the Mag 7, many of them are less than 20 years old. I think at this point, except for maybe Apple, all of them are 30 years, under 30 years. And the size of them is just amazing. So they've taken advantage and they've been the early names that companies that have benefited from it and they will continue to benefit less so than they have because their spending is now insane and

will remain insane they're going to get because of the big beautiful bill a lot of depreciation side on their capex which will help their earnings and profit margins stay high but there's an interesting thing that's happening and you know this fact was brought to me and it fits in with the thesis I have towards Bitcoin. But at the same time that we have these incumbents that have done well, 81% of the companies in the US that are bigger than 100, at least 100 million are private companies. And so startups are starting to have the ability to, you know, you mentioned vibe coding, let's go to something like Cursor. Cursor has grown rapidly, faster than almost any company in history to 500 million ARR, faster than OpenAI. And I don't think most people even know what

Cursor does. But when you start getting to the point that artificial intelligence allows companies to grow extremely fast with revenues and at the same time without people, without debt, you've reached a very, very important moment where the question is, will Cursor, which I think they will, have so much competition going forward that at some point they'll peak at some ARR and maybe their business will slow down after growing so rapidly. If you think about it in crypto terms, you've seen that a lot. I'll use Axie Infinity as something that just boomed back in 2023 into 2024, and then you never hear of it again as a game.

I think there's going to be a lot of quote-unquote booms that then you forget about because competition is now everywhere. And I think gradually over time, the incumbents which make up the S&P 500 will be under extreme attack. And I don't think they're going to be replaced. And that's the big thing that I haven't really spent a lot of time already on my videos yet. I think this past weekend, the title of it was a graveyard for the 2030s will be a graveyard for the Fortune 500. And that's really where this ends for me is that the incumbents will not be replaced because I think tokenization and the crypto world will allow these companies to remain private. And the S&P

500 in public companies will stop growing but the private stuff will continue to grow yeah i i would love to dig into this because you're beginning to see this manifest particularly a company like stripe uh i think the collison brothers were on all in earlier this year and the all-in guys were pressuring them about when they're going to go public and they very i wouldn't say flippantly but nonchalantly we're like ah it's not really a priority for us. We're going to stay private for as long as possible. And I think that's a company you look at. The market for secondary shares of Stripe is pretty liquid. And so it's not a problem for them, for early investors or employees who've exercised their options to

liquidate their shares to realize some of the value that they've accrued. And it's something we think a lot about 1031. And one of the questions we get asked most is like, what's the goal what's the path to monetization is it going public ultimately and some companies it may be but there are many founders beginning to think like should we stay private for longer what is what is the path towards monetization for early investors is going public the end all be all i think the tenor amongst founders today is uh i'm not sure if that's the the end all be all for us particularly, which is really interesting and a changing dynamic. Yeah. Again, I think monetization was a function of the old capital structure. You had to do it

because you had to take in money, but I don't know what Cursor's capital structure looks like. I think the company's only three or four years old, but let's assume they didn't have to take in any money and they just built the business from zero the way it is today. If you get to 500 million of ARR and your expenses are extremely low, why do you ever have to monetize? You are monetizing. It's out of your revenues. It's not out of the value of the business. So I'm not really sure if people have really thought through the concept of what monetization actually is. I come from the hedge fund world, I know plenty of hedge funds that have remained private the entire time and their founders are making over a billion dollars a year out of the revenue. So I'm not

really sure people have thought through this. I understand why a private equity firm, a VC firm, large investors, companies that have had to just continually raise money. But if founders are able to take $100 million out of their business. And Larry Ellison, I think, was the first person that said, once you get to a net worth of whatever it was, half a billion dollars, you really can't spend the money the rest of your life anyway. So I really do believe this competition from AI will not allow businesses to grow forever. And that's the concept that I think people are going to have to start to get in their brains. It twists it a little bit because it's not something they've thought of. But that's the interesting part for me on the journey into the crypto world is I like

I'm a pattern recognition person. If I see my son talking about a new video game every three months and a new app every three months, then that's boom bust. But it's just a different version of it. And I think that's the world that millennials and younger kids have really got involved in is that you just keep moving and moving and moving and moving to the next thing. And a true entrepreneur can build a thousand businesses if they want they don't have to have one business and then ride it into the ground and keep running it uh so i think it's a different mindset going forward yeah i think this is manifesting there's i mean i've been sleuthing on like ai twitter and there's like a big a big trend of people starting holding companies and then having

these these smaller one-off apps that they're they're producing getting the mrr arr up and then moving to the next thing rather quickly and so you can i could definitely see that trend um accelerating from here and then to your point about uh like ai enabling people to just build things without having to raise in the first place um when you add bitcoin as a treasury asset to this um to this equation things really get get heady when you think about this part of the conversation that we're tapping into and we've seen this within our portfolio at 1031 there's a number of companies um we're pretty we've been pretty aggressive we get on the cap table and we're very uh very ardent about persuading founders to put a good portion of their initial

raise into bitcoin and hold it on the balance sheet and many companies have listened to our advice there and there are a number in the portfolio that um haven't had to go back to market because the cash and cash equivalents in the form of bitcoin on their balance sheet is more than the money they've ever raised up to this point so you basically have this capital tool that allows you to be very selective with when you go to dilute yourself as a founder um and the rest of your cap table and when you sprinkle the productivity gains of ai into that and the speed to revenue that these tools can can enable it gets really insane if you have a founder or two co-founders that really internalize this concept of pairing the productivity of ai with the hard

asset that is bitcoin to really supercharge their business and they're just cash flowing quickly turning that into bitcoin extending their runway uh things can get really weird well you just i I think this is another version of what I talk about a lot that and I and I still believe that this year will be a historic year for for Bitcoin and for crypto because of the merging of AI and the speed of Bitcoin. Stable coins are connecting the two worlds and allowing more money from the fiat system to see the spotlight. So I've kind of viewed Bitcoin just in my conversations as as being a dark hole, a cave that most people that have the most money in the world just not only do they not understand, they can't embrace it. And that'll change over time because of FOMO. I've said repeatedly and I'll say it again, that the most important chart to me is Bitcoin over the mag seven when that and that it's been doing well this year. Bitcoin is outperformed by about 15%. As it breaks out and as it gets going, which I think will

happen this year, I think it will force more and more of the fiat world to move into it because the fiat world is around the globe. Their number one asset is the MAG7. I group them all together because it doesn't really matter. They've been the winners. So regardless of whether it's a European investor, a Chinese investor, an Asian, anyone around the globe, their number one asset it as the mag seven, uh, or they haven't performed. So they, they all own it. And I think this merging the way you described it, where it's supercharging businesses that anyone that views it on the balance sheet, but also uses AI to grow their business. Uh, and before we get off this, uh, this interview, Marty, I do want you to talk to me about an example of these holding companies.

Cause, uh, this is kind of one of those things that like, I haven't seen this before. It makes perfect sense to me but i'm interested in anyone or any anybody who's out there posting about it because the reality is that's a supercharged thought process too where it's like i don't need to create a business let me just go create a thousand little businesses that are diversified in itself and let me put the revenues i'm getting that a percentage of them into bitcoin and let the two of them grow together that's the way that i've chosen my life i could be at a hedge fund right now. I'm supercharging my life by spending my time on AI and having most of my net worth in crypto and in particular, in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and I'm just focused there. So this supercharging

of the two coming together this year, my side because of AI agents, but the way you're describing it, it doesn't really matter. It's just the growth of AI and using AI and then putting money into Bitcoin, letting them run together. Serious about your Bitcoin? Start acting like it. Unchained just launched the financial freedom bundle a curated pack that includes a premium bitcoin book a new hardware wallet guide and access to a private macro event with turd demister legend it's time to take control of your generational wealth go to unchained.com slash tftc to request yours that's unchained.com slash tftc pretty hot package freaks go pick it up yeah so there's exactly like level co i think that's his name like he's a prominent a prominent vibe coder and if you go to

But his profile on X, he's got the number of companies started in the last couple of years. And I think he tracks their MRR and ARR and updates it in his profile if he's been transparent about it. Greg Eisenberg is another guy that's really been, I don't know if he's doing it himself, but I think he's really trying to drive home this point. And then, I mean, TFTC, what we're doing here, we have a holdings company, the media. We have our media branch, but now Opportunity Costs, which is the extension we launched. I think we're going to create a mobile app for that. And that'll be like a little LLC under the holding code that is TFTC. And it's beautiful for me because I've built up this media brand over the last eight years and we have good distribution, good reach. And so I think we're well positioned to leverage that distribution to get these applications into the hands of individuals. And I've got a team of three behind me, and I really just think of the idea and sort of know where the market is, and they run with it.

And then the amount of lift it takes for me personally to sort of contribute to those efforts is minimal, a couple hours a week maybe. and then they're able to do the work and it's pretty low risk potentially high reward in terms of we're able to use the cash flows from the media to fund all this and if it works out you just add a diversified revenue stream to to the holdings go and we're a bitcoin treasury company as well private one we would immediately roll all the cash flow into bitcoin so yeah that's how that's how we're thinking about it at least um i think more and more businesses will keep doing it's still early in this i got asked a couple times last week uh with people about where we stand with bitcoin and in corporate treasury and just the mindset of more established companies

as opposed to the smaller businesses and you know i i think ai is going to disrupt incumbents from the bottom up and so if you're a software company like microstrategy was and your business is now being disrupted by ai you're gonna have to find some way to continue to grow and maybe you've been successful you have a lot of money but now you're you realize there's just no way to compete with ai because they just have no people um the only thing that can move is fast and is not destructible and to me is a hedge on the destruction of AI is Bitcoin. And I think more and more companies, just like more and more countries and more and more individuals will be forced into it

because it's the only asset to me that has a moat other than gold and, as I've said, religion. I don't know of anything else that can survive another 5,000 years and Bitcoin is one of them. Yeah. And, I mean, to this point, that, I think, is one of the big themes. I mean, you've been talking about it the last couple of weeks, met up poaching developers playing insane signing bonuses plus insane comp, annual comp in the nine figure range just to catch up with open AI and others. And I've had conversations with people who are in pretty well-established unicorns that a few years ago, many would be certain that they're going to be around for many decades, but internally beginning to question because of the, especially if you have an organization with a lot of employees, you have a high headcount, you sort of have this managerial morass that sits between the executives and the people actually doing the work.

Like it's going to be hard for them to be nimble enough to actually and have the balls to take the risk to sort of gut everything and build everything from the ground up. And so I know a number of people in big tech that are sitting in cushy positions at companies that, again, three years ago, people would have been certain will be around in 2030, 2040, beginning to question because they're curious as if whether or not their organization actually has the intestinal fortitude and the boldness to act, to sort of gut everything and implement AI from the ground up. And can they actually do that considering the technical architecture of the business that they built between 2015 and today? Well, that's the thing about what Meta is doing and what Zuckerberg is admitting, if anyone wants to listen, is that he has an enormous fear of obsolescence at this point. And that's, I mean, you're dealing with one of the mag seven, you're dealing with a company that is bigger than the majority of countries GDP on the planet. And yet, he's willing to pay hundreds of millions of dollars, so over a billion dollars for 12 employees. And yesterday, he hired a senior person at Apple. it really just says that he has a fear of falling behind their models are behind that's no doubt he's chosen this open source approach and he's losing and so to have a company that big to fear obsolescence at its all-time high in price the same way i said at

the beginning of the year it's never happened in capitalism that one of the largest companies on the planet that had increased their market cap by $1.5 trillion over the prior three years would fire 5% of their workforce, but that's what they did at the beginning of the year. And now they're out there chasing for more people, and they're spending, I think, $70 billion approximately this year on the AI infrastructure. So you're dealing with a reality that, you know, you mentioned the Collison brothers. The Stripe sessions is one of my favorite things to watch because they give you an update. It's their annual event. And they talked about how fast, you know, they were seeing their businesses, since they kind of control the startup

world, grow to 5 million in ARR in the fastest time ever. And it was, I think it was a drop off of about 70% in time from where the SaaS unicorns had gotten to. But not shown out there was also, So they said, we're also seeing companies that are growing to 5 million ARR in a short amount of time also stall quicker than ever. And that's the other part of this. It's not just the growth, but it's how quickly competition comes on. And so I think the meta news should be taken as, again, a really negative thing for the S&P 500, that they're fearful that their business will be disrupted from one of the

other mag sevens, from whoever reaches AGI, ASI first, whatever. We're just in a totally different mindset than we've ever been in capitalism. And that's why I always go back to the Schumpeter comment where eventually capitalism will eat itself. And I think we're at that stage. And I think that's what is represented by what Meta is doing. What do you think? Is there anything outside of the inability to expand energy generation that would slow this down in your mind? Just like it was for Bitcoin, the governments and the regulatory side.

But the problem is, and this goes for Bitcoin as well, you know, I don't think the governments in any way, shape or form we could have thought four years ago would be embracing stable coins, embracing Bitcoin to the point that they are. AI is forcing China and the U.S. to race faster than ever and deregulate. and the reason is because it is a nuclear weapon in their eyes and whoever gets it wins and you know i i don't think enough people have thought about that i i've had that conversation people i don't really get it i'm like you understand if you have asi then everything accelerates from that day and you can't catch up like you're just solving every single thing one by one by one and then someone doesn't have the answers to the test over at another place and you get further and further ahead and there's no way to catch up. Now, assuming that's true and that is the

benchmark that ends up happening, that's great. But the fear factor between China and the U.S. and the amount of spending that will go on to ensure that this race happens, power is the only thing I can see. That and rare earth. So commodities which fit in with the power side. I'm doing a research report right now on copper because I don't think, not even I don't think, human beings have not really grasped how fast this is moving, how much power we'll need, which I've written about, but how much copper we need because it's the only commodity to deal with the electrification side of letting the energy flow out. And we don't have enough copper right now. Um, we, we, it takes 15 to 20 years for a new mine to come on. So the amount of copper that

apparent that from everything I've, I've gone through and done the numbers on, it's just enormous. So something on the hardware physical side will probably slow it down. Uh, and I don't, I, you know, that's where my focus has shifted from an investment standpoint is I'm much more interested in copper companies in countries like Brazil and Chile and places that are loaded with, copper. And this was a big part about why China and the US came to an agreement on the trade side before the other countries. And it's because China was holding rare earth over the US. And I had highlighted this for about the last six weeks that we can't go through a trade war with China because they control 90% of the rare earth, which is used in everything we do

from a military standpoint, everything we do from an AI standpoint, everything we do from a computer and a phone standpoint, it is, China has 90% of the process rare earth right now in the world. So we've got to spend the next four years finding new access to rare earth from places like Greenland and Ukraine and other places around the world. So I think that's the one thing is commodities will slow this down eventually. But I think the regulatory side is actually accelerating. Yeah. So are you hopeful that we'll have the necessary energy expansion here in the united states and it's funny you mentioned greenland and all that i think people look at the headlines of the bombastic comments trump will make about like taking greenland or adding

canada as the 51st state and just look at his face value as trump being a bombastic sort of psychofan but it's actually uh not a psychofan but like a absurd person but like actually i think strategically it's like no we need these rare earths and canada has a lot of oil and natural gas that we could probably leverage to build out all this energy infrastructure that is necessary? Yeah. So I ran a very large macro book back during the financial crisis. And I was in China in May of 2008, exactly when oil was getting above $150. And I was there to see if there was any chance that China wouldn't be impacted by what was happening in the U.S., which at that time, you know, for people not involved in the market, the rest of China in particular did not believe

it would be impacted by the U.S. housing problem. And I went over there to get a better understanding of why oil was at one hundred and fifty dollars when the U.S. economy was was was falling fairly sharply. And everyone kept talking about how China was still growing energy, but they weren't using oil. They were using coal. And what I saw was that at the time, China needed to import an enormous amount of coal to keep running their country at the level they did. And they were trying to not slow down at the time the U.S. was collapsing. And obviously Lehman Brothers ended that. But I left there in June of 08 and I had a very large emerging market and commodity portfolio, which I took down. And the reason was because I could see that the coal side was already

an intense problem. The reason oil was going up is because the bottlenecks that were happening in cold from shipping them from around the globe. And this is the important thing that I want to mention for the power side, for people that we're going to run into this again. There's plenty of oil and gas and copper around the globe. It's all somewhere. We know where it is. We can go get it. But the question is, can we get it as fast as the demand side is growing? And that's the problem we're going to run into. And the reason the coal thing became an issue is because trade finance broke down once Lehman Brothers there, and then the whole dominoes broke down. In the case of power, the US is trying to invest, trying to triple nuclear. They're trying to

do anything possible on the gas and fossil fuel side. But the big beautiful bill is going to hurt some of the ability for wind and solar to go forward. So I think over the next, the second half of this year. I wrote a research paper. I believe Exxon and Chevron are going to benefit from this. They're not direct plays, but I'll always be reminded of what happened with coal, which led to oil. And I think in this case, if you can't get nuclear and you can't get the clean energy you need, you're just going to go use the dirty energy. And so I think you're going to see a surprising upward side of oil prices, of natural gas, of copper, and also of a lot of the commodity names this year. And as that plays out, I think it'll be evident to people that we definitely

don't have enough power for the next couple years the way things stand yeah now the power thing is incredibly frustrating because you look at the the curve of generation the united states have flatlined for essentially three to four decades now it's beginning to creep back up but that's probably my biggest worry is it too little too late to try to catch up with china in terms of power generation yeah our grid is so old and uh you know the the curve you're talking about like we've dramatically increased our our fossil fuel production i mean we were in 2008 at the time when oil was 150 the the titles of most of the articles were the u.s was screwed because of peak oil and we didn't we were importing oil so we were at a major issue so here we are now and we're the

largest exporter of natural gas. And we produce now an increase from, I think it was 1 million barrels a day up to where we are now, up near 13 or 12. So we've changed the entire kind of way that the economy is run. But the thing that has stayed the same is basically been our electricity usage. So our electricity usage peaked not that long ago. And as our nominal GDP, which used to be what electricity increase was you started seeing an efficiency gain and we just have an old grid so it's very hard to enable us to to to get more and so if you read i think elon musk this week it was announced that he purchased a a power plant overseas that he's importing into the country just to give you an idea of how much power is needed and that's for

his new uh his next phase of colossus uh and the big data center that he's building out so i think this again this will be a major theme our data center build out is accelerating now and it's just going to take a lot of power and we're not ready for it neither is the grid yeah it almost feels like to me i've been living in texas for the last four years and you see what's happening within ercot specifically yeah and it's obvious that the administration now understands this problem and uh understands that we need to get going in terms of expanding generation like there has to be like a meeting of the grid minds here in the united states like with urquhart leading it saying all right here's how we did this over the last 30 years and here's how you

can do it it's going to lead to a lot of deregulation and disruption of the way you've been doing business since over the last century but if we're actually going to go achieve these energy expansion goals. Here's how it needs to be done. Yeah. Texas is going to be really interesting in this whole thing. I, you know, for ERCOT to be a, uh, almost like a, a well-known thing now for non-utility, uh, uh, people throughout the country where, you know, I do a lot of stuff now for 22V in terms of institutional research. And we're going to be going down to Texas, uh, probably in August as part of a, you know, a data center, uh, trip we'll meet with ERCOT. We're going to see a small nuclear, a modular nuclear build out. And then we're going

to go to a humanoid company. And the goal is really to show institutional investors, A, how close we are on all of this stuff. But secondly, the massive electricity needs and build out that has to happen in Texas because of the Abilene build out from Stargate. You've got other data centers in other places. Texas is just the home right now to everything going on from the build outside. Yeah, and we have the ability to do this in a capital efficient way because of Bitcoin mining. I know you've been mentioning Bitcoin mining as the energy buyer of last resort. But one of the things I've been saying for years, having been immersed in the mining industry since 2018, it's not only the buyer of last resort, it's the buyer of first resort too. And I think one of

the problems that these grids have is you can build power facilities, but it takes time to build transmission to the grid, and that time lapse creates this inefficient use of capital. Where now with Bitcoin mining, you can build the generation asset, put a mining operation behind the meter at the site, build out transmission, and then create revenue while transmission is being built out to the rest of the grid. And so I think in terms of actually building out more generation, Bitcoin mining needs to be part of the conversation in terms of helping to enable that and de-risk it yeah and this week obviously with core scientific and core weave this was a big moment again this year has i mean let's start it last year so if

you were looking post ftx and post kind of the destruction of the the 22 year you needed to have more of a merging between the traditional finance world the fiat world and crypto and stable coins is one of those bridges to help. And obviously, the Circle IPO has brought a big spotlight. Last year, you had the ETF launches, which was a natural way for people to not have to go set up wallets and not have to go that whole route. But in the long run, to actually have the system, the digital economy accelerate, you need to have payments. Stablecoin will not only accelerate the volumes and the transactions that are happening around the globe, but it also leads to a much easier way for any individual to have wallets set up. And by having more ability for wallets,

then you end up with the transactions and the money being in the digital economy. And then it's staying there. While the power side, you have the data centers. And so you have CoreWeave, which was a successful IPO this year. And then they go out and decide, OK, we're going to go buy a Bitcoin miner. You're getting the bridging between the power side of both the AI and crypto. And I don't think people are seeing this. That's why the last phase for me is the power side, not the electricity, but the digital oil side. And that's where Ethereum to me is really important for this year, for the next crossover point. I think people have to understand and start thinking about, well, why is Circle important as a company? And now I start hearing people say, well, Tether should be a trillion dollar company or any of these different things.

As long as fiat people can convert the way they're thinking in the traditional way into the crypto world, which you cannot do with Bitcoin other than call it digital gold, which to me is not a it's not worth people to think about it that way. They need actually some things where they can invest in it and they can make an argument. And eventually with Ethereum, regardless of people's beliefs on it, I think there will be a conversion at some point that will make people think about it in the way that it should when it gets explained. That if you believe we're going to do, you know, that stable coins will go from 250 or 260 billion up to, you know, a trillion plus over the course of the next 18 months. If you believe that and you think volumes are going to continue to explode, then I think people are going to make the natural transition to what's powering that? What else should benefit from it? Where should it go? And if they start going to the quote unquote digital oil side, then Ethereum should get it. We should get speculation there.

So I like these crossover points between the traditional fiat world and the crypto world. And I think the power side through the Bitcoin miners is just another natural transition for people. Again, equally unnerving and exciting. I think I feel very fortunate just by not happen chance, but I chose the path to focus on Bitcoin and have been maniacally obsessed with it for 12 years. And I don't think if you would have told me five, seven years ago that this convergence would be happening, I would have probably been like, yeah, maybe. But like now that it's here, it's like, holy crap, it's a really good spot to be in as an individual playing sort of in these two worlds, particularly between Bitcoin and power, which is a lot of my passion. um see i i think the bigger point as someone who didn't start getting from an investment point involved until 2020 so i am a big student of history and when i talked about lei um you know

it was 2013 that i started understanding exponential innovation and what would happen And I wish in 2014 after I got – so 2013 was when I stopped going to China every year for a month and I started going to Silicon Valley. So for me, that was the admission that the LEI was done and that was literally what it was. 2013, I realized that the government basically just ended business cycles. China had peaked. Their demographics were a foregone conclusion. There was no way to turn it the other direction. I don't think most people watching this think about China in the context of the globe, but China is a really important part to Bitcoin exploding.

The one-child policy is a really important part to Bitcoin exploding because it meant that the caboose, the last part of the Industrial Revolution, it ended in 2013 and they had a massive debt problem on the real estate side, which they still have. That meant they had to start printing. So when you go look at money supply of the world, China's 50% of the money supply. So they've made it illegal to invest in Bitcoin. They've done all kinds of things to really hamper the growth. But for me, when 2013 became evident, that's when I started to get involved in terms of believing that exponential innovation was coming. Well, Marc Andreessen wrote a paper titled Why Bitcoin Matters in 2014 for Andreessen Horowitz. And if I would have read that paper in 2014, I would have invested right there in that because I went to Silicon Valley trying to explain why Amazon could trade at the highest multiples ever for a long period of time and why a company that didn't make money could trade as one of the biggest companies in the world.

and why Bitcoin matters was an important writing about the Bitcoin white paper, how it was coding genius, and more importantly, how over the next 20 years, it would basically be the most important part of the digital economy outside of the birth of the internet, the birth of the personal computer. Now, I read that in 2020, and now when you look at today, that paper that he wrote was effectively that Bitcoin had solved digital money and that Bitcoin would be the money transaction piece. That didn't happen.

So the fact that stable coins has effectively taken that reign, it's actually really interesting because it means the evolution of the technology and the innovation and Bitcoin kind of establishing itself as this separate entity, which is really I needed to know what it was. I have said publicly, and I still believe it, that Bitcoin represents the S&P 500 of the future. It is the ultimate capital structure global. It is the global S&P. If you're going to invest in something that says innovation is here, the S&P 500 is an amorphous thing that changes the companies constantly at a slow pace. If you believe it was changing companies, like if there was a new Mag 7 tomorrow and the old Mag 7 would be gone, as an investor, you'd still make money even though half the companies are gone now. And the reason is because you're invested in the S&P 500.

You're not invested in just in Apple or just in whatever. Well, that's what Bitcoin is. It's the end result of all the destruction of every company that has ever existed. The money needs to go somewhere because it's not disappearing. And Bitcoin is the global representation. so i wish i would have read mark andreessen and had the luck you did of getting involved 12 years ago but i'm enjoying my time now yeah it's uh i remember that and then he did uh then he did an opinion piece in new york times or maybe that it was no it it was it was on their

website but it was also in the opinion piece yeah yeah in the um i mean to this point too like when it comes to the conversation of like stable coins versus bitcoin payments you've mentioned is this bridge and that's how i view stable coins this sort of transitionary mechanism to get us to a bitcoin standard um because that's the question in the long run like stable coins are representative of u.s dollars and uh you've had the administration come out in recent months and pretty much acknowledge like hey we gave it a good try with doge um we're doing the big beautiful bill uh doge is not really tenable in the long run because of social security medicaid and other things we got to turn it on turbo uh essentially expand the

debt uh lower rates and hope that we can uh just grow gdp at a faster rate than we're expanding the monetary base and i think that's the big question um and so what is the the end result of those fiscal and monetary policies on the purchasing power of the dollar over the next 10, 15 years. Yeah. And with this whole scenario playing out, I've used AI to kind of decide how it all ends, because AI will solve almost all of the debt deficit problems over time. Uh, if you believe in abundance, which I do, and I believe it'll be here, you know, within 15 years, um, that gives enough time for, for us to solve the power needs. It gets enough time for us to, um, basically solve for longevity. Uh, it gives us the ability and those are the reason those are so important. Um, until you have energy abundance, you, you can't get rid of the debt problem. And, you know, we talk about AI and what's the weakness. Power is what slows down innovation.

It always will be. If we solve for fusion and everything is immediate, then there's no more, you know, we won't have any problem with power. All the problems will be solved because of ASI and AGI. If people don't die of diseases anymore, which is where, I mean, isomorphic labs, if people want to go read news that came out this week and what Demis Hassabis at DeepMind has really been focused on since 2016, since AlphaGo. We're at that point where they believe that they can cure all diseases. They're starting with cancer. And Isomorphic Labs is basically going to start

rolling out some of the work that they've been doing. If all of these things happen, then you're going to reduce the deficit because the expense side of the government is going to come down because most of the expenses have to do with aging in terms of Social Security, in terms of Medicare and Medicaid. So I'm a believer in abundance. I think people have probably about five years, which is why I agree with what Vino Kasla talked about, which I referenced on this in the interview. If people haven't seen it, he was on the podcast Uncapped with Jack Altman, Sam Altman from Open AI's brother. And he just openly talked about things that I've always believed in since Ray Kurzweil. But when you get to AGI and ASI,

companies, the S&P 500 companies should be under complete attack. And since I believe AI startups will replace them and all be private through tokenization, the investment in the S&P 500 will start to decay. And you'll end up with a scenario that to me is headed towards abundance and headed towards real time everything. And if that happens currency wise, I don't know if stable coins will still be here then but we need a bridge to get us to where everyone is transacting everyone has wallets everyone embraces this and i think that all has to happen in the lead up to abundance so i think it'll happen more rapidly now over the next five years yeah and you mentioned this in the beginning of the conversation but i made a mental note to come back to it because i'm

a father of uh i've got two young boys a third child on the way at the end of the summer and But this is top of my mind thing of the next 15 years is they enter their teenage years and their adulthood over the course of the next two decades. Like, how do I position them for like, is this based off of what you're describing from now? The 2030s will be acceleration. The 2030s will be a decade of reorganization in the 40s, a decade of abundance. Like, is it a perfect time to be born right now? And you'll be an adult by the time abundance is here. Yeah. I mean, I, my, my kids are older, but I think about it every day. And like I said, it was after that first trip to Silicon Valley. So in 2013, uh, my kids were, were, you know, under 15. And so I started thinking about, you know, school, uh, I offered all my kids,

none of them took me up on it but i already thought a college education was a waste of time and that i wanted them to get a degree but i also wanted them to get the pure benefit from college which was a social experience but i told them i'd prefer if they went to europe and just spent four years in europe got an online education and traveled and let me spend the money on that and get just get an online degree and at least you have a college education uh but you have that experience of traveling and building up kind of the knowledge of what I think the abundance world is going to look like, which is the ability of just enjoying life, uh, and finding ways to keep learn. Like I said, I learned more from conversations with people. Uh, you know, I,

I have a lot of, a lot of things in my life. I'm grateful for, for people that I've met my best friend, the best man at my wedding died in nine 11. And at that point, when I was in my thirties, I just, you know, had a very clear decision that life is short and I wanted to enjoy every minute. And I started meditating and I started getting involved with not letting a bad day impact the next day. And unfortunately in abundance, um, if you extrapolate kind of the, the scary part of it, which is what do we do? What goes on? I don't think humans will ever not work in some fashion. I think it might be different, but I would teach your kids to be creative, to use AI from a very early age and ask questions, to build things, to be people that can enjoy nature. I started skiing in my 40s because I grew up fairly poor and didn't have the money.

My parents didn't take me skiing. And I thought it would be a great thing for my kids because I wanted to enjoy nature during the wintertime. As simple as that sounds, I think enjoying nature in the wintertime is one way to think of handling abundance, because if you just lock yourself inside your house, you kind of go stir crazy. And I think that's the thing people are scared of the most is they're going to have so much time on their hands. How do I fill up the time? I think it has to be between people and conversations, learning, creativity and things that bring you joy, but also one with nature and going out and embracing it year round. so completely agree get out touch grass in the sun that's why we come to the beach in the summer we're we're ocean people and so boys are in the ocean for five hours a day exactly and uh there

was um one thing last thing i wanted to end it on you've been i think it's really important that you're framing it this way in terms of using ai i think there's a lot of uh misconceptions about how an individual no matter your competency can leverage these tools many people think it's daunting like it's hard to use i think you've done a really good job of articulating it on your weekly videos of you've got to use it you've got to use it every day multiple times a day and think with it because it learns about you as you're using it and sort of not just thinking of it of as a one-off tool to go do a simple task but literally ingratiating it into your day-to-day processes. Uh, like, and I think just having used it myself over the last two and a half,

three years, um, it's much easier to pick up than I think many people, uh, think you can basically ask it to teach you how to interact with it. And it will do that pretty, pretty sufficiently. so i'll give people um all right so here here are three things based on the last 24 hours two i've done and then one that they can take from from this conversation and you know if people are watching this they're old enough most likely that they either have kids or they're thinking about kids and i think setting an example for your kids to use ai is the only way to help prepare them for abundance, they have to get used to this. So I have a, you know, I'm not up in Maine all the time. And I came up with my garbage disposal wasn't working. Now, I'm not a plumber. And

normally, I would just call a plumber and have them come over. But instead, this time, because AI is multimodal, I went to chat GPT, I hit the little plus button. And I took a photo of the garbage disposal. It I said, Hey, the garbage disposal is making a buzzing sound. what am I supposed to do? It looked at the model. It said, take a photo underneath it so I can see what the bottom looks like. It took a photo. It said, go get an Allen wrench and turn this about three times and then it should be working. And that's exactly what happened. Now, if I would have gone to YouTube, I would have probably had to search. I would have figured it out, but it might have taken two hours to watch the video, go through it. Having a conversation

with ChatGPT and showing a photo, if you have a wildflower on your property, just take a photo of it. It'll tell you what it is. If you have a bug bite on your leg, take a photo of it. It'll tell you what it is. Anything that you want to use it for. If you're worried that your newborn has a rash around its neck, take a photo of it and upload it. All those things are now where instead of Google, instead of YouTube, you should be using it. I cook and I'm a good cook. Tonight, I'm going to be making a shrimp with a white bean puree, but I wanted to kind of, you know, change it up a little bit. So I started having conversation and literally went through and said, okay, I have a bunch of basil. I have a bunch of lemon. I really want to get a strong flavor inside the

puree. What should I do? That's the way that I kind of build recipes on top of recipes. And I kind of go through what I have. And so for anyone that cooks, just try it out and go through it. But most importantly, and the number one thing, and I wrote a sub stack about this, I mentioned Joseph Schumpeter. If you've never heard of Joseph Schumpeter, if you've never really thought about what creative destruction is, when you're done watching this, just go click to the far right of the free version of ChatGPT. You will see a round button on it, just a round globe. Just hit it. It'll bring up what Siri is supposed to be with your AirPods on. just have a conversation and say, I want to learn more about Joseph Schumpeter and just start a

conversation. When you're driving in a car, have a conversation. If you have a conversation with ChatGBT or any of the voice modes, Grok is there. I think Grok 4 is coming out or came out last night or it's coming out tonight. Perplexity, they all have voice mode. Gemini does. Just go have a conversation and start getting used to, hey, I want to read this book. Will you tell me what it's about? Okay. Instead of reading it, I'm just going to have a conversation with you about it and you can have a conversation for literally a two hour drive nonstop it'll change the way that you live your life and once you start to have a conversation you'll stop using google and once you stop using google you'll start to appreciate all the things that i just mentioned now on the

cooking note i uh my dad unfortunately passed away a couple years ago but he had this uh very specific way of cooking a holiday filet in the oven like jack it up and i couldn't remember the exact steps but i went to chat gpt and i was like hey my dad used to cook the fillets this way i know he would turn the oven up really hot and turn it down like uh we've got a five pound fillet can you can you find this uh this style of cooking a fillet and tell me how to do it and like within 30 seconds it was like oh this is the this is like the high heat turn it down quick mode and like had we had a perfect fillet a few hours later that's actually a perfect example of if you give it enough information it will go and search specifically for what you're saying which

you cannot do in google there's no way to do it in google so when you get into these um specifics where you go through it it'll come up with it if you do this with i grilled a pizza and someone wanted to go through the the nuances of how you make a great pizza on the grill without it being directly on the grill. And it's not an easy thing. You have to trial and error. You have to go through it. I explain why I have two bricks under a pizza stone to get it elevated so the flames are not close to the dough and how it has to be the perfect size and blah, blah, blah, and everything else. The great thing about AI, to use the biggest fear of it, doesn't it have hallucinations? If you don't want the answer to have hallucinations, just include in the prompt, do not hallucinate,

do not include anything that is not a fact. The beauty of this thing is that if you tell it exactly what you want, whether it's, you know, I want to cook this at a high heat and then lower it. So I want the first 10 minutes to build a crust around it at 500 degrees. And then I want to lower the filet down to 250. After that, what recipe should I use? So I get the thick crust, but I still get it tender on the inside. It'll give you what you want. And if you say, don't hallucinate, give me the exact answers and the factual stuff, it'll spend extra time to go through it. So people just need to stop being fearful of it and just experiment with it. And you'll just be blown away by everything it can do. Yeah. So overall optimistic, I take it.

I, I'm, I'm, I have a hat that says half full, so I don't, I don't, I don't believe in, uh, in pessimism. I'm a, I'm a New York jets fan, New York Mets fan, New York Knicks fan. i've got a long time without a championship so i am i am i am optimistic when the season ends i'm looking forward to the next season next year so well as a as a phillies eagles sixers guy i uh i i've been reveling in your pain over the last couple of days there you go jordy this has been uh been incredible thank you for just putting the information out there and being an open book about your thoughts and everything it's been uh incredibly valuable for me over the last couple of months as I've been diving into your weekly videos. And I really

appreciate your time coming in and having this conversation today. I think people are going to love it. Yeah. You guys post content too. I use a lot of it in my weekly videos. So the same goes to you. And the more that we're out there spreading the don't be fearful of AI and Bitcoin and crypto is not what you think it is. It just helps bring more and more people in. So I'm part of that community of trying to educate people and we're there together so i appreciate you inviting me yeah we're gonna win as we say here we're gonna win exactly all right peace and love freaks freaks thank you for listening to the show i hope you liked it if you did like it please make sure you subscribe rate review the show it helps us out a lot and also if you like these conversations

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