TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #638: Q1 2025 Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis

Episode Date: July 12, 2025

Marty sits down with Matthew Mežinskis to discuss Bitcoin's power law growth trend, the mathematical inevitability of money printing resumption, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, and the philosophical implications of exponential versus power-based growth systems colliding as Bitcoin adoption accelerates. Matthew Mežinskis on Twitter: https://x.com/1basemoney Porkopolis Economics: https://www.porkopolis.io/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBz Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Coinkite https://coinkite.com Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free if you talk about a fed just gone nuts all all the central banks going nuts so it's all acting like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean that's part of the bull case for bitcoin if you're not paying attention you probably should be mr mcginxious are you ready to turn it on turbo i am my friend let's go deep always always happy to be here with you chatting chatting base money and other things yeah well we're going to turn it on turbo during this conversation but it seems like the u.s

government's going to turn it on turbo we're going to outgrow the debt it's happening are you let down were you were you enticed were you enticed by the maga fever last fall and now feel fully let down to a situation that was perfectly predictable to most of us hand up i did have some optimism i mean cautiously optimistic i think i was and i think publicly on the record cautiously optimistic it seemed in retrospect it seemed good to be cautious because uh didn't turn out too great and gave a somewhat of an effort i don't know if it was a in earnest effort with doge and i think in the beginning people were excited to see that a lot of the waste fraud and grift was being unearthed by the department of government

efficiency but rather quickly it it turned for the worse and i think as lynn alden's been saying for years and as we've been discussing for years there's no stopping this train well let me give you a little bit different perspective here from eastern europe perhaps as i do we're not going to go too political you know that uh warren crane is always top of mind but i'll start uh as as has been the case uh with my monetary base research my power curve research for over seven years and i know people don't like a uh gloating uh sort of picture but you know we've been promised hyper bitcoinization we've been promised super exponential growth i've been trying to ground people in the realities of uh the research that i have done

for about seven years seven eight years and then we have situations like what happened in ukraine uh very much a free country whose has uh basically slaves trying to liberate it you just look at a town in eastern ukraine which has been liberated by russia and it's complete rubble uh right now i'm on the border of the european union former soviet union and it is super dicey still europe does have to step up i will give trump credit for lighting a fire under europe's ass um but you know everybody that's been supporting a strong traditional free world uh i.e with you know national defense both in the u.s's case or in europe's case we're working together uh i notice with not happy uh i'm not happy to gloat about this but if you look at the

Trump rhetoric from the campaign trail about the Ukraine war saying, I will end this war in 24 hours, said it multiple times. I will end this war in 24 hours. He said in the early days, he said, I believe I have the power to end this war. He also said Zelensky, who everybody in the Bitcoin maga camp loves to hate is a dictator saying nothing about the 25 year dictator of vladimir putin he said zelensky started the war in ukraine this is trump trying to bend his ass over for putin and uh create a great peaceful dialogue putin has done the exact same thing that all of us in Eastern Europe have been saying since the beginning for three years. And this is not just a Trump thing. This goes back to the Biden thing, too. You're happy. Traditional Republicans had

the door wide open to go back to what they do best, which is national defense. And this is not invade Iraq situation. This is defending the free world. And let's not forget how Russia invaded ukraine under the obama administration invaded ukraine again under the biden administration this was teed up perfectly for a normal republican administration but instead you goofy americans and i'm sorry to say this i know it's not you directly marty but a lot of people that are in the maga bitcoin fu camp to every centrist all you had to do was be strong you didn't even had to send troops to ukraine all you had to do was be strong send patriots send missiles in fact if they had gotten max weapons three years ago the

war could have been over in two fucking weeks i've said it from the beginning i'll continue to say it and where are we after all this fucking bullshit where are we right now trump sat there yesterday for the third time reversing his moron as uh defense secretary pete hegseth and this eldritch colby guy's decision the third time reversing their decisions about not defending ukraine because ukraine is getting pummeled now because they don't have the patriots oh it's tough to be right it's tough to be right i'm sorry to say this but there is uh there's a proper way to deal with asshole bully dictators it's not to call the good side a dictator corrupt it's to deal with the 25 year dictator in the autocratic communist country

all right that's my that's my soapbox i've talked about this many times on our quarterly updates and here's my latest that seems like you you are right and it seems like trump in the last week i think i've seen the headlines i will admit i have not had my finger on the pulse of social media and the geopolitical macroeconomic and the geopolitics i've been following macro more take twitter off your phone it's even better yes although i did put it on for a bitcoin btz prog i put it back on and need to take it off again it's like like a drug yeah it seems like trump is making about an about face like i think it was yesterday the day before he said he wants to send more missiles and but what's the point what's the point we're wasting time we wasted time

all i'm saying is look this is a this is a centrist normal issue it's it's way bigger like we're talking defense a free world uh versus a dictatorship uh we don't have to even go into it i just wanted to say this piece just like the power curve which we're going to talk about just like base money which we're going to talk about just like rational data-driven uh centrist it can be free market theory but let's not go into looney tunes theory of something that's like not grounded in any reality it's like it's it's a lot of it is you know this sort of uh the hopium that's in the bitcoin community is great at times but you got to be grounded in reality situational ground uh the data bitcoin's not going to a million dollars tomorrow enjoy it

it's a great asset to protect you from your wealth and there is no salvation in a fucking 25 year former communist dictatorship vladimir putin Fucking shithole country There's a death cult There's an absolute death cult Listen to people in Eastern Europe I'm on my soapbox Marty, I love it, I'm sorry

It's very angry gloating I'm not happy about it, we're back to where we were Republicans I'm with everybody here If you're a Tucker Carlson fan Who's done his own about face He was a big cheerleader of the Iraq war I was never for the Iraq war

But if you're anti-Iraq war, I don't know how you can be pro-Putin war like Tucker Carlson is now. Just fucking moron. All right. That's it. That's it for me. Let's see how many hate mail comments you get. Yeah, it'll be fine.

Don't send the hate comments, freaks. It's all right. I don't care. I don't care. You might care, actually, but... No, it's Tony. I met Yael. What's his last name? Asaki? uh osowski osowski great dude great dude you know we had a conversation about this too it is

that's what i think my conversations with you over the last three and a half years which is crazy to think it's going on this long i told him it's just like yeah like i i don't i'm not right there in eastern europe so i do trust your your perspective on this more than probably the mainstream media here and i would i'll i'll buy a beer to any bitcoiner that comes to baltic honey badger one of the best og bitcoin conferences in august i'll be there as i always am i'll buy you a beer if you want to challenge our views we are not going back under the fucking shitty russian tyranny not gonna happen but it's gonna be harder if the west i'd say particularly america europe europe has to do more 100 europe has to do more western europe uh needs to get their head out of

their ass as far as the uh all the woke shit still but you know i would say we need america we need a strong we need a strong america to not look only inward um i'm specifically talking about defense. I'm not talking about, you know, all the other stuff that, uh, Musk was working on with those. There's plenty of legitimate debate there. I'm just talking about the real world of autocrats versus democracies and democracy is not that bad of a word. And yes, Yael is a great person. Uh, as far as, uh, he's got a great like historical knowledge on liberal democracy he's the i think he's the deputy chair of the consumer uh consumer choice center you're curious uh people they do great research he lives in europe uh consumer choice center is actually

headquartered in dc i believe i'm saying but yeah man it's uh it's it's tough days it's not going to get any easier it's not going to get any easier bitcoin's a great hedge for all this stuff but we're not going to be at a million dollar bitcoin tomorrow and all like moving to the caribbean that's what samson mal told me though well he's got his agenda we all got our agendas he'll make a candle scumming and it might it might it might let's jump into that and for those curious about yael i'll actually be recording with him two days from now that'll be out next week if you're listening to it bring my bring my fervor for defending the free world to that conversation bring it yeah what is um bring this back to the monetary side of things

and the other one of the many other disappointments of this trump administration they take to get with the bad i mean i'm getting it's like it's like uh is the strategic reserve happening my friend i don't know i don't know i made some bets around that i'm probably gonna lose but really i mean what were the bets i mean the executive order it does technically exist right now but it isn't enshrined into law no um the priorities are all out of whack here they wanted to focus on stablecoin's market structure before a bitcoin strategic reserve which i would argue is probably more pressing more of a pressing need for the federal government that is 37 trillion dollars in debt and is explicitly telling the american public and the global public

that they are going to turn the spending on turbo in an attempt to outgrow the debt and that's the other i mean that's the other thing i wanted to bring up like from uh just like a economic landscape here in the united states now globally i'd be interested to get your thoughts on like the emergence and proliferation acceleration of artificial intelligence and the effects that may or may not be having on the economy and the potential effects it could have in the future where it seems like we have this and depending on who you ask i'm pretty convinced it's happening We have this emergence of this technology that will lead to economic productivity growth on the scale of the industrial and digital revolution, the internet revolution. And like, is that potential for increased productivity, abundance and wealth enough to have people focus away from war and towards free trade and competition in markets?

I don't know. i have all the thoughts i have all the thoughts what are your thoughts there big meme right now big theme i think that we'll find the paradigm shift and we'll grow into the next spot not going to grow out of the debt um but that's actually not the main issue we'll talk about it but um so you know i've been doing this power curve work right and we'll talk about it but showing it i think actually your show i showed at the first uh although i i first tweeted about it in like 2018 and this giovanni uh fellow who's kind of wraps his name around that on twitter people might have seen him a bit cantankerous but uh he uh he quoted uh the power he observed

that bitcoin was following a power regression more than an exponential regression in september 2018 i did in december 2018 he did it on reddit i did it on twitter i was uh following this uh trolololo is an old og account on bitcoin talk he was visualizing bitcoin in a logarithmic regression which is actually like very fast super exponential growth at the beginning and then levels off but um the there's a book by the guy's name is jeffrey west it's called scale very good book statistician uh looked at a lot of data just talking about he wrote it about 10 years ago and you might remember marty at the time there was a lot of talk 10 years ago about the singularity ray kurzweil was talking about this right there's a lot of definitions of what

that kind of means but uh jeffrey west talked about the singularity and he was looking at the growth like long-term growth we talk about growth trajectories it's it's all that i do on my channel actually i make trends i draw trend lines i try to put things in perspective i try to see where the growth is going right we can look at some charts but the general idea is we probably are increasing the rate of exponential growth during certain key changes in our civilization right so we before the industrial age we're moving a bit slower before the printing press age we're moving a bit slower than that you know before whatever it might have been agriculture we were moving a little bit slower

than that the farther and farther back you go and when we've added these new levels of innovation we're still on exponential growth right which is just constant growth so you think about population growth two percent a year although that's slowing down actually a little bit when people get when you get richer generally that slows down but um you know economies grow three to five percent a year stock market grows seven to nine percent a year if you invest your dividends it might be a little bit more reinvest your dividends uh bonds can grow five to ten percent a year just rough i'm just talking rough stuff right uh but the further back in time you go those percentages were a little bit lower so it's still constant for a time but then we we reach a new a new sort

of epoch we reach whatever it was if it was the industrial revolution if it was the digital revolution you know and the fiat revolution is a part of it too right it confuses the picture right because we went off gold 50 years ago 55 years ago so we force ourselves with this new growth we have better stuff clearly we like some people have better stuff there's a lot of cross-currents we have as you know and your listeners know we have a lot of money printing a lot of distortion a lot of central banking issues but generally we're moving from a situation where we we have constant growth here and then you know 50 years ago because of fiat we might go here and then digital revolution we go a little bit here and now we have ai like you said we have

bitcoin so we're we're slowly sort of increasing that that curve right over a period of like an undefined period it could be 20 years could be 50 years could be 100 years it depends right but it seems like you look at the last couple hundred years from the industrial revolution it seems like those cycles are getting more compacted right like when you and i were kids i'm a little bit older than you but i mean i remember my dad in his first laptop in the 90s big fat thing slow you know 500 and whatever you know megabytes of memory like very just everybody knows the story now here we are you know 30 years later and we have pretty amazing large language model tools and all the rest so time is compressing and the growth is going faster

what jeffrey west talks about in his book is that when you start layering these things on if we would just do it mathematically um we have to to keep going he uses the analogy of a treadmill like so 200 years ago we're on this treadmill but then as we improve we move to another treadmill it's a little bit faster but we have to jump off that treadmill and if people don't come with you you're left behind it's a good analogy right so you jump off you go into the other treadmill older generations die whatever it is and you move and move and move theoretically if we go on this super exponential growth people jump on to a new treadmill every new generation and that generation is getting more you know

that time dilation is getting smaller and smaller but between the times we need to jump onto the new treadmill. At some point, we're getting into a singularity, he calls it. It's not the Ray Kurzweil singularity, it's just a mathematical singularity where it's an impossibility to grow anymore. And from that point, it's a very interesting question. He kind of leaves it open in his book. He wrote this book 10 years ago. I don't know his latest thoughts on how that all is sort of going to evolve. And Bitcoin was in its nascency 10 years ago, by the way. so i i don't know if he has thoughts about how that goes but uh my my general thinking is we have uh we have a few more

uh treadmills to jump to but we're probably very close to jumping like to another treadmill whether that is uh moving on to a bitcoin standard which again as i just talked talked about it at the stop of the show i don't i don't think it happens all at once i think it'll be something gradually like either central banks or treasuries start reserving bitcoin uh certain economies start using bitcoin i think the gold will also play a part of it i you know gold don't forget there's four trillion dollars in central banks right now today because of the gold appreciation there's only 50 billion dollars worth of bitcoin in governments so four trillion versus 50 billion we still have you know we got some time got some time everybody's excited

but we got we got some time for this stuff to play out but i do think uh just like we had a switch 50 years ago going from gold to fiat i think and thankfully we have bitcoin i think everybody's seeing that that's just not gonna last so the next epoch probably will have some gold as a part of it probably will have some bitcoin as a part of it but i think i think that still can continue for a while uh how long again i've said this on the first show that i talked to you about uh you know if you were a gold bug in the 80s you would have thought you had just won in the game of life when gold went from 35 an ounce to 850 an ounce uh for two seconds in 1980 and then obviously when there's a 20 year bear market i'm not predicting that for bitcoin i don't think

anybody is and we have the power curve as well which is showing that that's not happening but uh basically i'll stop talking here but the point is i do i do think this stuff can go on a lot longer than we think but yes i would agree with your general sentiment and with a lot of this sort of sentiment that's going around and i kind of i would put it in people should read scale by jeffrey west because basically i think we're going to jump to another treadmill going to be faster going to be more complicated you know you got to take advantage of ai kids are growing up way different even than you and i grew up you know i mean chat gpt is going to be part of their lives it's it's just gonna be very it's gonna be very different but uh i i don't i don't and i also

think gold and bitcoin would be a part of the monetary system but i don't think it's gonna be like uh i don't know like some supernova change i i think i think it'll just be it'll be an evolution and bitcoin will be a part of it all right so i'll stop talking no i like that they're gonna to read scale yeah his mathematical singularity looking at the other side of that i mean he leaves it open but what is is it are you left to assume do we get abundance or do we reach like fermi's paradox great filter and fail to get through and something happens is that the juxtaposition he's sort of getting it yeah it's a it's a paradigm shift i mean he definitely says it's going to be some paradigm shift uh he doesn't go as far as ray kurzweil's you know

humans into silicon sort of idea but but that's the idea yeah i mean i think you know and you get these weird cross currents right like elon musk was saying we should have a pause on ai it's so dangerous and then two months later he starts croc like what the fuck are these people talking about i mean they're just like you know they're not even providing leadership we we know that sam altman wants the regulation he wants his world coin you know if you're a regulated ai company you are just like uh sbf wanted the regulation for his shitty ftx company he wanted to define how crypto was going to be regulated uh and of course he's a fraud as well i'm not saying altman is a fraud but he looks like a evil super villain uh and he's got his

world coin so yeah there's there's gonna be pitfalls everywhere uh government is as usual as we know it's going to be part of the problem not part of the solution the thing is they have the guns though they have the guns it's difficult uh i still think you know back to my soapbox at the beginning of the show about ukraine that there's still value and salvation in the west than in a place like Russia. China's going to be scary, though. I mean, they're going to go for Taiwan. What are we going to do?

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your local device it's a great way to recalibrate your life and begin thinking in sats go check it out at opportunitycost.app that's opportunitycost.app okay i mean to that point about there's still salvation in the west i i don't know about you obviously you're not physically here in the united states but there is this energy in the air particularly driven by the emergence of ai and i think more and more people beginning to grok bitcoin pun intended uh i don't know it feels like the american spirit is like the fire in the belly of the archetypal american is is getting stronger like the the idea that you can go out there and build something and just go do things yeah don't need the government you don't need uh yeah

what do you think about the american party i think it's retarded um and what are you gonna do i mean uh don't put on my geopolitical analyst or political american politics analysts hat too often but i think if you're just looking out at the world in any other free democracy that has multiple uh like a like a and that it's weird because i've always said like we need to get rid of the the um sort of two-party system here in the united states but i think the way the american party is coming to you're just going to Split the conservative side Of the aisle and just hand everything to

The socialist which would be a disaster Yeah Yeah So I don't think they're gonna I don't think the American Party is gonna entice Any any of the democratic socialists Come over and vote for them

So I think you're just handing everything to the Zoran mamadonis of the World yeah Yeah states rights focus on states rights i agree i agree um yeah i think and i i tweeted this out i read a newsletter about it two weeks ago too

where like elon i understand and who knows if it's like k-fob or whatever just political theater which i i certainly would put a material probability on this being the case that it's just some sort of distraction tactic and there could be some coordination behind the scenes but if we're being generous and assuming earnest intention by elon it's like come on dude how have you not recognized that you're not going to solve this problem by playing the political game you have to work outside the system embrace technologies like bitcoin open source software and and sort of build and route around the government that you have clearly identified as as being extremely wasteful yep

um i just want to remind listeners that you know living in europe with with different uh with different uh priorities right i guess than certain bitcoin maga types or whichever uh type you are for free thinker types um it's funny to look at the uh the foreign policy of the united states from the lens of these guys basically because none of them have any idea what the fuck they're talking about i don't know i'm sorry to say it like this but you know that there was a grok a hilarious grok uh question it was like show us the the biggest russian disinformation accounts on x twitter as i like to call it

and uh number one was elon number two was tucker and this is grok uh and then it's got like mtg uh it's got tim pool it's got jackson hinkle just these you know it's got jordan peterson even and uh a lot of a lot of characters all on the right except for this jackson hinkle who morphs into whatever he wants to be this wacko but um you know it there's i i i uh i completely agree with you on everything like domestic and what you're talking about with uh with working outside the system there's still the question and i've brought this up on your show before right which i think is difficult and like it definitely needs adults in the room i would be fine if there was a change but i don't

know exactly how it's changed but it's a lot of where my libertarian theory breaks down it's basically handling the situation of uh you know the nukes better and i've asked you you as well like if texas succeeded what would be their nuclear policy you know would they would they take the nukes from some of the silos in wyoming idaho would they have the thought about that you know there are just some practical problems about defense and issues and this is stuff that like nobody's going to get around and yet all of these wackos have no fucking clue about the threat that exists from russia it's uh it's really it's unbelievable to me so anyway it's the last time I'm going to bring up Russia

it's a lot of cognitive dissonance that I see there I mean I said this a couple weeks ago during an episode with who I think Tom Luongo we need to adopt Elaine Au's

denuclearization protocol turn the turn the kinetic nuke weapons into nuclear power and prove that you're denuclearizing by plugging in Bitcoin miners.

We can look at the hash rate go up and have a certain degree of certainty that people are decommissioning their nuclear weapons. And that would be amazing. If Bitcoin fixed that, then I think it would be absolutely fantastic.

One more reason to get on the Bitcoin train. Yeah. Serious about your Bitcoin? start acting like it. Unchained just launched the Financial Freedom Bundle, a curated pack that includes a premium Bitcoin book, a new hardware wallet guide, and access to a private macro event with Tur Demeester. Legend. It's time to take control of your generational wealth. Go to unchained.com slash TFTC to request yours. That's unchained.com slash TFTC. Pretty hot package, freaks. Go pick it up. Speaking of the Bitcoin train, what the hell's been going on? Before we to the bitcoin train let's look at this chart you have up here basic money

basic money it's been it's been hovering and trending down it has so i first published it seven years ago uh this is about this time in uh june july august 2018 20 trillion dollars this is the core for people that are new to this this is the core central bank money of the world this is the balance sheet of the central bank it's the main liability item it's called the monetary base it includes notes and coins all the physical cash in the world also what they call bank reserves or bank cash basically the bank's account with the central bank that's called base money as well that's everything is pyramided on top of that essentially and we can bracket the word pyramid because i know it triggers a lot of people but again uh you just

gotta gotta talk about reality here and assets and liabilities but anyway uh bumped up to 30 trillion to remind people topped out at 30 trillion in december 2021 30 and a half trillion yes as you said this is like the the graphical representation the money supply representation of rising interest rates because of all the covid madness and stimulus they've had to raise interest rates which they started in 2022 2023 uh as well currencies have lost value against the dollar this is a witkin scenes ruler thing it's hard to exactly graph all that uh precisely you're looking at here with the lower amounts you're looking at yes some less money supply or flat money supply more like flat actually but a

lot of dollar devaluation which is interesting so the dollar still remains the best looking horse in the glue factory um and yeah so now it's at 26.2 trillion but i very much uh believe and i'll pull up another chart here in a second let me get it pulled up. I very much believe that this figure cannot stay this way for long. Trump is desperate for a new Fed chair. He's desperate for lower interest rates. He's desperate for money printing. US doesn't fully run the world. I take that point. But obviously, it's an important signal, whatever the Fed will do. And I'll show you this chart. This is the same chart. but this is now just doing a trend line over the life of the modern central banking period

since the end of the gold standard the slope of this trend is about ten and a half percent ten and a half percent uh this is in dollar terms you can make the case that it's actually higher because in native terms, I threw out this figure, it's closer to 13% or 1% a month. That's in native terms. But again, they lose value. If you look at it from the lens of the dollar, all the other currencies generally lose value. So take it down about 10.5%. But if you look here, clearly, we're way under trend.

This is a beautiful 99% R-squared exponential trend. No one's going to tell me that fiat money doesn't grow exponentially. And if you put the 2.5% percentile, we're even under that. as of march 2025 which is my last update this is actually our q1 update marty we haven't talked in a bit i gotta do q2 already uh right now but we'll we'll uh we'll we'll uh we'll get there after are you coming to honey badger by the way uh due to um some some family events i will not be there you will not okay no problem uh well like i said my invitation stands to anyone who wants to debate geopolitics with me and the shithole nation that is russia but anyway i will uh i will

say that uh there's there's very few activities that are more gratifying than drinking beers with matthew mazingtious and regalapia thanks buddy uh we'll uh we'll wait for you next year so anyway as you can see here it's it can't go on forever i don't know exactly you don't even need to look industry rates you don't need to look at dot plots but we are way under all the central banks know how to do is print money we're way under uh at 26.2 trillion the trend the the two and a half percentile is 27 close to 28 trillion the trend itself is 35 trillion based on what they've been doing over 55 years so it's coming it's going to be gas on the fire uh go long money printing yeah there's nothing really to worry about there um let's talk about bitcoin though price so um

one of the things i've shown you this curve right a lot right the power curve yes uh just for people that haven't heard of this before heard of my work If you look at the chart that we just looked at here, you see it's a trend line. This is 55-year growth of the money supply, the main money supply that's comparable to with Bitcoin. It's not M1, M2, M3. We can talk about that.

I have that here, by the way. M3 money, which is what you should use if you want to go broad money, is about $114 trillion worldwide. And this is only the top five currencies. I don't actually have the remaining, the rest, like I do for base money. uh so base money is 26 trillion m1 money sorry m3 money is 115 trillion anyway that's deposit money that's your exchange account that's your coinbase account cracking different stuff we can we can bracket that again but um it's important for people to understand

exponential in my opinion primarily because of compound interest just the way that compound interest is calculated in the banking system is how everything grows so back to our discussion about scale everything grows exponentially whether we eventually increase the rate of growth they get to that super exponential is still kind of up for debate but i think it's probably true but nonetheless everything grows exponential it's a straight line on log scale if you look at bitcoin and a chart of bitcoin and you run a trend line through it far and away i'll take all these uh bands off just make it easier far and away the best fitting curve is what you call power curve all right so you can notice this is log

scale as well doesn't matter the log doesn't matter the orders of magnitude it's not a straight line on log scale so what's happening with bitcoin the phenomenon of bitcoin is something different like i said i've been to the to the exponential super exponential growth hyper bitcoinization bitcoin maxi's chagrin i have been following this for seven years and i've been correct for seven years it's not on an exponential curve this is a 96 r squared this is better than your stock to flow mean i actually published the power curve before the stock to flow mean but my budget remains zero dollars in marketing which i'm proud of don't worry if you haven't heard about the power curve is no problem

we'll get there and correct me if i'm wrong but when you observe something that's following a power trend it's typically networks right and it's like network adoption yeah it's uh it is a uh it is a it is a feature if you look at it in a distribution a scaling distribution like bitcoin you have uh one one feature of a network is you have uh many small nodes with few connections and you have few small nodes with large connections and that's a feature of whatever even if it's a public company like amazon or the internet itself client server and stuff that if you draw a line through that that's a power curve so that would be a straight line on log log scale unfortunately with my fancy charting uh analysis i can't do a log log but if i would

put the dates and it's important to say here the the dates are not a function of this regression the function is days so there's actually a function here it's a power function we don't have to get into the math it's not a big deal but there is days behind this so right now the function is counting out we're about 6 000 days from january 3rd 6 000 days from the genesis block and uh just brass tacks the the what a power curve describes is proportional growth so unlike with money or stocks or bonds this is constant growth right should be you know everybody thinks this way right like your stock broker uh you know talking heads on cnbc they're all talking about are you going to get 15 growth this year what's your hurdle rate eight percent growth they're

talking about constant continuous growth year upon year upon year and the basic rule for that rule of 72 if you take 72 divided by the return remove the percent sign you'll get the time to double all right so 72 divided by 10 it works best with 10 in fact so if it's a 10 growth rate 72 remove percent sign 72 divided by 10 equals 7.2 that is your doubling time so if you have 10 growth of an asset doesn't matter the asset you will double in 7.2 years this is what this is what um this is what compound growth is this what exponential growth is for fiat money as i just said it's about 10 percent uh is the growth rate so it's actually exactly what i just said 7.2 every 7.2 years this money supply doubles all right we could check that um you know we can go back here

2025 26 trillion or sorry the trend you got to go on the trend now the trend is 35 trillion we go back to 2018 or something and uh sorry 2017 17 and a half 17 and a half trillion right so roughly every seven seven years is this you know it's not exact on this on this curve like it's like 10.2 i think actually is the growth rate of anyway i keep getting on these side tangents i'm sorry uh this is exponential growth bitcoin does something different what is it saying don't worry about the math but what it's saying is after observing this curve long enough uh there's a percentage that you can get to which is a constant percentage but it's a proportional percentage so the percentage is 12.7 and what that means is for every increase in time that

the bitcoin network exists that is an additional 12.7 the network doubles that's what the power curve of bitcoin is showing us that's what says has been observed so right six six thousand days in uh twelve and a half percent seven hundred and seven hundred and uh sixty days or whatever two years from today should be done two years yep yeah 760 days is roughly this is roughly the doubling time of bitcoin at the moment that is the brass tax number for bitcoin so that 12.7 will remain fixed but the days won't remain fixed so it's a it's a different type of a growth than exponential growth so having observed this like i said for seven years now playing around with the numbers a lot thinking about it uh you

know gone through huge scams 80 drawdowns and then we've gone up with you know etf adoption and whatever trump mania you know that strategic bitcoin reserve mania even though that might not happen regardless my thesis and i think i talked about this a little bit more with you is i think that the growth of bitcoin and i can i'll show you this mathematically in a second I think at the moment, we're still about 95% raw network adoption. That's nothing to do with the Fed, Trump, the money supply. 95% is based on this unbelievable mathematical trend. And 5% has to do with the rest of the money supply, the debt, the world.

We're way early. We're way early. I think eventually that will flip and we'll get to where Bitcoin is. Obviously, we're on a SAT standard, Bitcoin standard. But I think right now in the growth of the Bitcoin network, 95% of the price movement of Bitcoin is based on the fundamentals of the power law and the power Bitcoin growth, which is completely different than exponential growth. this is uh this is the sober analysis that we bring you in in here for and in terms of where we are on this power trend line right now it looks like we're right on trend right on it yeah we've been right on it really since the etfs etfs bumped us up here

around 65k at the start of last year we've gone back under you know a year ago now we've been back up we're literally right on trend right so this is uh i think i pulled in the model only at uh july 6th 109 000 we're recording on the 9th uh for people that are curious but the um it doesn't matter i mean a couple days here a couple days there it's not going to matter but uh right on trend and then if you're curious about where we can go so i do this sort of multiple analysis other people do it different ways i'll just explain to it to you how i do it this would be the extremes this would be the all-time extremes and it's based on a multiple i used to do it another way but this is actually better and more intuitive in my opinion so

bitcoin has never been outside of these bands right and you can see that here right it hit the top here in 2011 and here in 2013 at the bottom here at the end of 2011 it will never be outside of this band based on the math and uh if you can visualize so here's the all-time trend the trend at the time was more inside that band you know what i mean much sharper faster but the cool thing about this again i've studied this a long time so i would encourage people to just take comfort in in what i've studied here uh notice from about the end of 2016 you almost look like a beautiful mathematical curve that that projects out see that see how it's like even with the you know really from about here

it's you know it's still adapting i'm still taking the multiples but it's it's damn near the same trend as when you would project out in the future so it's pretty cool it's pretty cool that's the first thing okay so this is this is the max it's never going to get here to these numbers again in my opinion uh but let's take the 10th percentile on the 90th percentile and i'll take off the extremes all right i'm taking off the extremes and now just the 10th and 90th here we also get some interesting stuff you know this would catch the what they termed the old crypto winter back in 2015 it would catch the almost caught the puking here after uh at the end of the 2018 crash and then the ftx puking here it almost catches

but if you just look at this band now we're we're a little bit high all right now i'll put the trend itself back in all right the all-time trend the smooth trend but basically we're we're right on trend okay so now uh let's put the upper percentiles i don't gonna have to want to or people and go through every little thing i i stream about this like almost every day now by the way so if anybody wants to check it out it's it's morning european time it's a 9 a.m london time if people want to check it out but i'm streaming about a lot of this most days so the question to people you know americans like to get to number one number usually so i like to people can't really think of percentiles or what it means but if you can

think about the trend think about where we usually go every four years and then think about a multiple over under that trend that might give you a target of where we could go so theoretically the end of the four-year cycle is the end of this year the trend line at the time is uh is is uh 125 000 125 000 bitcoin the 90th percentile is 2x the trend okay so that's very simply 250k all right let's look again now i'm gonna take off the 10th percentile let's look at when bitcoin went over the 90th percentile it was every single time even if it was a little bit lower as we can see in 2021 all right now let's zoom in on the 90th here's a different chart the log left this is just the top 90 a rainbow of top 90 days and uh well actually let's let's

just review so again the the very peak which we had in the early days it's not going to happen again like a 7.8x move over the multiple that's not going to happen and i think you can take off the 99th 98 let's even take off the 97 what that leaves us with is a multiple of 2x trend to 2.8x trend let's just see how the rainbow looks we hit it in 2011 we hit it in 2013 twice uh we hit it in 2017 easily and harder but we did hit it completely all these rainbows in 2021 not saying that's going to happen again but very simply so if you take these rainbows out to the end of 2025 the trend's 125k 2x that trend is 250k let's go up to the top end of that curve which is nearly 3x the trend 350k so that would be my estimate for 2025 and probably because of

uh the a really large institutional uh entering of the market although again like i said i the real world in my opinion is very minimally correlated to this trend i mean the trend itself the network adoption is the bigger 95 of the price action it's possible we go a little bit into 2026 i think uh based on how we're just chilling on this trend line right now but as you know as i know i mean you get that god candle everybody's waiting for it you get super bullish uh you know fever fomo everywhere it's suddenly possible by the fall we spike back up into this area but yeah this is this is generally my call i would say by the end of the year uh 125k should be the trend i think we'll be two to three x the trend is a very

safe normal target and you know not financial advice but people you know do what you want to do uh i don't think hyper bitcoinization is coming at this point i don't think the united states will collapse at this point russia is going to collapse with the united states so keep focused uh you know take care of your family and make your own decision from that point yeah and i i think i feel comfortable asking this i believe you'd be able to speak to this too i think what people really need to realize is that as the market cap of bitcoin grows becomes even harder to push the price up yeah precisely it becomes heavier becomes a little bit heavier yeah and what are your thoughts on this broader bitcoin treasury trend in public markets

is it sustainable it's not sustainable uh for sure i think uh just by bitcoin in my opinion uh but totally logical and the right move for the early companies that are trying this obviously we've seen what's happened with microstrategy seeing what's happened with meta planet um you know that's not going to be the result for everybody uh you know early bird gets the worm so to speak but uh i don't think as long as people aren't you know taking excessive leverage with this paper that they're creating on top of bitcoin at crazy prices to buy more bitcoin i don't think necessarily it's going to be a huge problem specifically for the large holders like MicroStrategy as far as I can tell their liquidation level is very very low still but

that's not a phenomenon that I think will matter over the long term but I will say in other words I do think that Bitcoin yield eventually collapses to one but I do have some interesting thoughts on at least I think they're very interesting on how this could affect the growth of everything literally what we were just talking about because think about this think about this marty if everything grows exponentially this is verifiable this is due to the theory of interest and credit i mean an interest rate literally is a compound rate it creates an exponential trend often and this is what people in our space like to write about this is an unsustainable trend right people take leverage people make stupid decisions uh things collapse

right this happens in the old days in medieval times it happens across empires it happens with currencies i'm not saying it's going to collapse tomorrow by the way i'm just putting an observation out there right exponential trends have a very difficult time actually back to the top of the show what we just said unless you increase that treadmill you jump on a new treadmill you increase the growth you have a paradigm shift in a new technology and you can you can keep ahead of the trend or eventually the curve it's it becomes unsustainable it collapsed again i'm not calling for we can look at the u.s debt chart i'm not calling for that tomorrow at all and i'll show you exactly with numbers but think about that idea so we have the track like i'll just show

you a chart here in a second we have the trad fi world that is running exponentially and then we have the bitcoin world which is running in power and then we have some tradfi companies like microstrategy metaplanet you know many others what happens when the tradfi world starts to buy an asset that moves in power in the bitcoin world what will those stocks look like so this giovanni character uh from from italy who's done a lot with the power curve he's been talking the idea that it looks like the trend of micro strategy stock is starting to match that of bitcoin which makes sense obviously but that's a power curve if everybody has bitcoin and that's a part of everybody's balance sheet

and bitcoin against this uh numeraire of our world today which is the dollar moves in power against Bitcoin, then presumably the TradFi world as well will start to move in power. But this goes back to the old question about debt versus equity or interest rates or whatever. How do you price your cost of capital when you have this slowly asymptotically declining rate of growth every year with Bitcoin, which is very predictable? Money supply is very predictable. the power curve as i've just shown you since 2016 is almost identical to the power curve if you add in nine more years of data unbelievable unbelievable from like a statistical standpoint what happens to contracts you know are you you're going to have a a loan where you pay a certain

amount of interest this rate this year in sats and then the next year you pay a little bit less an interest and a little bit less a little bit less you know because once you have bitcoin generally everything looks cheaper from that lens but it doesn't look exponentially cheaper all the time the rate of growth does decline in bitcoin so it's a very it's starting a bit of philosophical question but let me let me put it let me put a chart here to show you the this is the this is one of my ultimate theories here now um all right yeah yeah we had a conversation about this at the philly john uh last month you know and like thinking about this philosophically like how do you reorient and i think what um one person says like we have to reorient around like future value

and like basing things off of future value of things versus present value um and sort of reorienting contracts trying to like trying to value bitcoin in the present and what it will be in the future and base contracts off that that makes sense that's that's what i recall yeah yeah it's it's the same vein i'm on the same wavelength right now so i'm going to try to show this graphically all right so here is this is kind of my ultimate ultimate theory at the moment i've added in this chart i started from 2008 which is when bitcoin the december 31st 2008 when bitcoin started i'm taking all the base money in the world in fiat which at the moment is 26 trillion i'm adding which i don't have a chart of but you just take my word for it i'm

adding available gold and available silver basically what i'm doing basically add those three things together technically you gotta with you gotta subtract uh the gold reserves which i said are four trillion because that's on the asset side of central balances and you gotta there's now 50 billion of bitcoin dollars worth of bitcoin so subtract that out to not to not overlap but you still can't that's still counted in available gold so it's not overlapping bottom line the the value as of today is 43 trillion all right so that 26 trillion just grew to 43 because I included gold and silver. All right. So this is what I'm calling trad five money, trad five based money, old money, new money. It's the same exponential trend. It's

always exponential in the trad five world. This rate of growth is actually even slower, surprisingly, because the gold's growth has been slower in the last 10 years. So that's affected. So we just went down from about 10% or 10.2%, whatever it is to about now it's seven and a half. This is a seven and a half percent trend line. So this now it's the opposite of what I just said rule 72 this will double every 10 years so i'll prove it to you just here uh december 2025 45 trillion it's 46 trillion december 2035 92 trillion roughly right so it's a roughly a seven percent growth rate of this curve all right we got a hundred years we got a hundred years on this chart marty um

to not confuse the chart i'm just taking actual values moving right into the trend line now let's compare the tradfi based money growth with the bitcoin growth which like i said whether it's price market cap address growth hash rate growth it's all power so here's how a power curve looks the bitcoin much faster much faster notice how a green line becomes nearly flat line because bitcoin's growing so fast from zero all right and now from here we can put a dominance bitcoin dominance index and i've done variations of this before but i think this is probably the cleanest cleanest way to do it so here's the dominance curve zoom in from zoom into here

this is graphically what i was just telling you before remember i told you that But I believe that 95% of Bitcoin's price action is due to the inherent nature of the growth itself, the adoption itself, people all around the world figuring out how amazing Bitcoin is itself. 5% is due to TradFi nonsense. This is literally the dominance that we see. So if you see Bitcoin as a $2 trillion market cap, that's roughly 5% of this TradFi fiat money market cap.

and then there is this mythical 100 trillion number that gets thrown around by different people i'm not gonna name names uh it happens to be that if we project out tradified seven percent and bitcoin at its growth rate which is variable and it declines we meet in the early 2040s all right and it's actually not 100 trillion is about 150 trillion 155 trillion it's just a trend i'm not saying it's definitely going to happen but bear in mind dear listener the bitcoin trend has been pretty amazingly consistent for 10 years now nine years so if these trends continue and if tradfi continues to grow it whatever it needs to grow whatever presidents and prime ministers want their central banks to print at and whatever people value gold

at and gold will be a part of this picture in my mind um because again central banks have four trillion dollars worth of gold in books then we get to about 100 in uh in early 2043 so let me know if you have any questions just at this point so is that the target date for a bitcoin standard i think it'll happen before i think it'll happen before um bear in mind a hundred percent actually is 50 50 so in trad five base money there is no bitcoin there it's literally just gold silver and fiat money and then i have layered next to it bitcoin growth if if central banks and treasuries in particular would be better if it was treasuries would be better for the world if it was treasuries, not central banks. But if treasuries started to

hold Bitcoin, this green line would come down faster because again, I remove the asset-backed portion of the money. I remove any gold or silver in the central bank. There's no silver, but I remove the gold and I remove the Bitcoin. So this green line would come down faster. Bitcoin would cross it faster, the more treasuries reserve Bitcoin. That's an unknown variable i'm only just taking current current current levels which are very low right now as well i think two more halvings is where anybody around the world is going to need to see to understand how like amazing this thing just keeps churning along you know you can have that issuance the price continues to rise um whatever it's just a feeling it's not really

much more to say about that but two more halvings from now right you know you're roughly around the 2030 uh 2032 area and that would leave 10 more years to get there and i think it probably would start to happen at that point i think i think somewhere in the early 2030s this is where you're at already 20 trillion dollar bitcoin many more contracts are going to be done in sets uh and we just start to get there and my mind immediately goes to obviously we're just talking about like the micro strategy and copycat sort of attack public capital markets to accumulate bitcoin but looking at this power trend and the fact that it's been so clean for almost a decade now putting on like my

venture hat and my business owner hat if somebody owns a business here at tftc like being able to internalize this trend block out the noise like once you've internalized it enables you to block out the day-to-day noise of this that and the other headline and intraday price movement affecting your your perception on bitcoin if you can internalize this power trend and basically stick to like this is happening here's how bitcoin adoption is happening and what that does the price of a long time over the long term like if you're just building a business that can provide a good or service that produces revenue and you produce that revenue um the cost to produce that revenue is cheaper

than revenue we're bringing in so you're bringing in a profit and you're funneling that in the bitcoin you're thinking like warren buffett long term cash flowing business value accretion like internalize this power trend and then go build a business that provides goods and services at a profit funnel it into bitcoin and you'll wake up two decades from now with a very valuable business yep 100 agree and uh that's what i'm seeing but there is a wrench here there is a this is a wrench yes this is this is the thought experiment it's it's philosophical at this point i fully admit it again i'm not saying that bitcoin is like remember our numeraire is still the dollar you know i know a lot of people think the united states is going to collapse whatever

like you said it's better just build around it embrace the free world uh you got a lot of countries like russia that you know you need to understand are completely liberal no property rights sorry just got to go back to that the world is a big place still and there's there there are a lot of issues here so again hyper bitcoinization i'm sorry it's i've been right about this now for seven years it's i see this continuing but here's the here's the interesting thing back to our discussion about um back to our discussion about exponential growth versus power right so power is very sustainable growth as you can see just here right i mean it's uh this is just a beautifully sustained sustainable curve right it's it's you know as as the thing

gets heavier gets bigger it grows a little bit slower i'll graphically show this now in a trailing 12 month on the right hand axis okay so it's here obviously it's super fast growth here i'm going to zoom in thousands of percent the network was growing here when we was literally rounding to zero trillion dollars by 2012 we were about a thousand percent under a thousand percent into the year 2013 okay that's the trend growth of the trend uh look at this curve now all right where are we today 45 percent it's exactly what i just said before the if you were doubling every two years or we're doubling at a two-year rate right now which is 760 days but that will the growth rate will decline the doubling time will increase so

I need doubling time here as well, just to make it even clearer, but we're falling as we, as we increase and we increase still very rapidly in the dollar market cap of Bitcoin. All right. By 2030, I'm looking at, you know, we're looking at 10 trillion dollar market cap. That's only quote, only a 31% growth rate, still an enormous growth rate for wall street. And I predict, I predict it still will be an enormous growth rate for wall street, but I will show you a trad five stock in a second, which, which makes this a little bit interesting. Anyway, 2040, when I think we'll cross, we'll be at about a 20% rate, still huge,

trailing 12-month. But here's where it's a little bit weird, is what happens when we get to the rate of TradFi? And in my chart, remember, I'm representing TradFi as about a 7% growth rate a year, okay? As we're talking about money, just think basically, this is saying you better at least get seven percent because the money supply is growing that much okay that's that's what that's just a basic way to understand what i just understand this trad fight chart like if this green line grows to seven percent a year you better at least get that and obviously people want more with with you know various small businesses or whatever you hope to get a higher rate of return so it looks like there's no problem here but obviously you need just a basic

understanding of geometry to understand that one of these lines is straight one is not straight so this will actually cross back down again in the future so what does that mean how does that how do we play that into our model especially when and i'm going to take off um i'm going to take off the i'm just going to leave the growth rates and i got to zoom in what happens when we get to here right so now bitcoin is coming down by the year 2086 you gotta love my projections here you know i'm not saying i know exactly what's going to happen in the year 2086 but we get to the year 2091 and we hit 7.3 percent which matches that old trad five constant growth exponential growth how does our dominance curve look like this is actually where it crests all right i'm

going to blow the chart out i actually need to hold on this is the dominance curve now okay so we get to 100 early 2040s we get to 543 or something in 2090 but as that curve cross mathematically obviously it's going to crest it's going to go back down so look this is philosophical i understand that don't at me saying i'm saying this is you know 50 years from now that i was wrong obviously uh but one of two things could happen when we talk about these growth rates all right in my opinion it's either the tradfi system which is exponential as more people take on bitcoin like these bitcoin treasury companies starts morphing to a power-based growth system which is bitcoin or bitcoin which is a power-based growth network model

starts getting subsumed, taken over, starts morphing to a TradFi exponential growth system. Systems can morph like this. I'm not an expert. I'm not a statistician, but they can morph. One of those two things would have to happen. That, to me, is the philosophical question. And I think if we imagine a system where Bitcoin is a little bit more captured by the state, the state is still around people you know it's it's a less optimistic scenario in my opinion uh i'm not saying it's a dead scenario none in not neither scenario bitcoin is bad i want to be clear right here both bitcoin is good in both scenarios but if bitcoin moves into an exponential mode where you kind of just compare it with a stock market growth or you know whatever

um the deposit rate of growth or whatever then that probably means bitcoin's pretty integrated into a controlled tradfi system on the on the contrary if the world is more free and people are using bitcoin and there's a lot of control and bitcoin create still continues to have this natural interesting sustainable power growth that kind of levels off with a slower rate of growth and everybody understands sats. Everything else is getting cheaper in terms of sats, but interest rates won't exactly make sense in this system because interest rates are constant.

You have to understand that point. If all of those things are true, then I think this is actually a graphical representation of the TradFi system will go power. And this is my next step of my research that I want to look at is, and I don't have an answer to you yet about this, but I'm just thinking about this,

is i think if you start to get a bunch of companies on balance sheet holding bitcoin and bitcoin becomes a huge part of their cash reserves then you might see their stock prices have this gentle bend it's still a way faster than tradfi but it does it is going to be a more gentle bend in the power direction and that's going to have like vast implications like i i can't even explain you know again how that's going to work but anyway that's my thought it's uh to me it's kind of interesting i uh i'm just sort of i'm still playing around with it but i think what we're what we're going to see is is two worlds colliding and mathematically one is exponential the other one is power and we're going to actually see what see which one wins and i'm

not exactly sure which one will win but that's those are my thoughts all right the caveman brain to me just looking at the power versus the exponential growth rates and many of the charts that you've shown today and understanding intuiting that humans our brains really cannot fathom exponential growth um we can fathom it but like you can't recognize it's happening to you while it's happening in the moment a lot of times uh it seemed like a like an economy based off of systems that are growing in a power trend is much more predictable and much easier to plan within compared to exponential correct but the the rub there the one hiccup is and let me put this in this way and i gotta do here in the white software but go

this is the growth rate of each okay here we are roughly right now bitcoin's at 45 percent let's just assume i know tradfi has all different hurdle rates people have their own but the growth of base money plus gold silver on a market cap basis 7.3 percent per year i would actually contend to you that our primitive monkey brains say the opposite it's easier to predict something like this and this is indeed what the talking heads on cnbc say every day yes can you get me a seven percent return can you give me eight percent return we all have different returns and returns do change a little bit but generally if you graph this out uh the number the the interest rate is a straight line and also the growth rate is a straight line right

one goes up to the right that is the actual in dollar terms of the stock but the growth the rate growth is a predictable seven percent per year that's a powerful force uh it doesn't always work like i said and and we talked about it can it can explode uh it can be unsustainable we can talk about debt we haven't even talked about that i don't know if we'll have time on the show but um you know i got charged for that that we can go a while a while longer on the debt in my opinion but this is tradfi what happens when you get a network that starts growing sorry this is tradfi in a rate of growth what happens when you get a network that's it's so amazing and so strong and everything gets cheaper in terms of it but the nature of it is actually

that the rate of growth declines every year in a more sustainable way and then what's the weird thing do we go back to trad fi in uh in 70 years or 60 years whatever it is um you know 80 years when we get to here this is all all very interesting questions in my opinion and uh i don't have an answer i don't have an answer but this is this this black line which is the growth rate of bitcoin as a network is only seen in sort of like nodes and uh i don't know it's it's sort of weird networking things it's not really seen in assets in assets uh you know like things natural emergent systems right things grow this way yeah it's it's more exactly it's more of a natural emergent phenomenon is what this is it's a sustainable phenomenon but this is more financial

phenomenon and so these worlds are going to collide somewhere here probably like really obviously as we said bitcoin's going to overtake the value of that world but that's not the end of that other world so i'm trying to figure out this stuff let me show you one more thing here while we're on this this strain of thought um how much more time you got we got like half an hour we have plenty of time so here's procter and gamble this is uh good old cincinnati company my my porkopolis uh uh brand is actually based in this because it's a you know over 100 year s&p 500 company started as a soap maker soap was a byproduct of the hogs in cincinnati during the industrial revolution then it turned into a consumer product powerhouse then it concerned

to turn into a marketing powerhouse sort of you never know where an economy will go basically that was procter and gamble fortune 500 company and uh here's how it grows all right this is market cap of png it's about 400 and whoops sorry under trend but at the moment it's 400 billion dollar market cap procter and gamble all right trend is higher you can see it just pops up to the trend line here it's 425 billion but there it is uh not as fast as the growth rate as actually it's about i think it's about nine percent growth rate is this trend and i'm only measuring this again from 2009 so it's actually had slower growth growth certainly in the 1800s and slower growth in the 1900s but as we've moved up those treadmills it's faster so here's here's png and

here's bitcoin bitcoin is obviously has no problem beating it you know bitcoin as we know is one of the top if you evaluate it against stocks it's one of the top six stocks in the world right now bitcoin is not a stock but it is top six stocks in the world but has no problem beating this and even with that power curve which is not a straight line it's you know well above it and we don't have to think about the future right uh that bitcoin dominance curve is it does crest but it's way out in the future we don't have to really think about it all right but what happens if we look at a company like apple and i will all right it's always ready we've got a company like apple apple's grown grown extremely fast in the last 15 years in the life of bitcoin right started out as

when Bitcoin was born, Apple was a $70 billion company. And this is why people that don't actually look at the numbers, you'd be amazed at how fast things grow. Apple was a $70 billion company on January 3rd, 2009. Now, $3.2 trillion. A $3.2 trillion company. What's the rate of growth of that over the last 15 years? 22% per year. It's massive. Not as big as Bitcoin's, 45% at the moment even, but it's still massive and it's still a straight line unquestionably exponential growth 95 r square straight line on log scale now let's put bitcoin i'm not saying bitcoin has to be bigger than apple but let's just put a tradfi system which is also a network by the way apple uh don't get confused with that with the power versus it

but obviously there's a network of apple users but it's still a company it's still tradfi What happens when we put this exponential growth against that same Bitcoin power growth? We cross it, but very briefly, and then we're actually back under it already by 2046. About the time we're going to pass fiat-based money, we're back under it, and we do the dominance curve we crest way earlier at only about 120% of the value of Apple, and then we go down. so again i'm just i'm putting this out here uh live for viewer uh content so to speak if and feedback if people have thoughts about this i don't think anybody's explored this

as far as what is actually this means but you know there are a few stocks that can compete with bitcoin this way apple's a huge company grows fast if we assume that it will continue to grow at a 22% growth rate per year, which is massive, then by 2040, Apple's going to be about a $90 trillion company. Bitcoin will be a $105 trillion asset bigger. But that power growth of Bitcoin will be slower, and Apple will still be on the exponential growth. There goes back to my question does bitcoin move to exponential or does tradfi move to power because maybe apple shareholders are demanding that we hold bitcoin you know in their treasury as a cash asset this is what i'm trying to play around with at the moment well i think we if we assume that

at some point in the next few decades we hit a bitcoin standard right like it wouldn't even Would it even matter? I mean, you would imagine that a lot of these companies would be forced to hold Bitcoin on the balance sheet and then their stock would be priced in sats and the treasuries of the governments would have a lot of Bitcoin reserves and people would be pricing stuff.

So I think at some point along this journey, there'll just be like a disconnection from the fiasco. i'm just spitballing here but no no i i that's what i'm saying i don't think compound interest works in that system i think uh you can have interest and debt instruments and all the rest but you'd have to literally pay as you talked about uh with your friend who you're talking about this like you'd have to think in terms of the future value of the money bitcoin is going to be on such a strong trend like you and i see this trend now we see that it's 96 percent r squared it's amazing we're on the trend uh but it's on such a strong trend that holds your

purchasing power you know this limited supply everybody's using sats so there's just there literally won't be enough sats to go around uh with exponential growth right so if there's literally not enough sats to go around with exponential growth the compounding loan contract you know what do debt what do debt contracts look like at that point what do factoring or you know the word uh like working capital type contracts look like what do line of credits look like yeah this is i think a very interesting question i mean i think safe has been a big advocate of this but you just transition to an equity-based funding mechanism where you're putting up capital you're just buying a percentage of the the revenue the profits moving forward right dividend payouts

is that we do move all of financing to that model i don't know is it i don't either because remember the trad fi system's still around we may not like it we might not get to this point where everybody is taking nukes and denuclearizing and uh you know uh selling into the bitcoin network their nuclear power which i hope they do totally agree with that point by the way it's it's a question mark to me it's a question mark to me but what i think i i'm on to here is is a graphical representation of sort of this uh this connection uh it will be faster and almost non a non-issue for some companies for example here with procter like you know if it was just like say the biggest stock in the

world was procter and gamble not but let's just say it was and and bitcoin was the value that it was it has this value we wouldn't even need to think about this question maybe the tradfi world would still move on some continuous compounding exponential growth standard compounding loan type situation and then if you wanted to get out and take profits and get into sound money then you get into sound money because bitcoin would be bigger than procter and just you know the stock market would be a separate player separate game but this happens with apple it also happens with microsoft and a few you know there's there's only five stocks in the world that are bigger than bitcoin at the moment google is another one uh amazon and nvidia um those companies which are

all obviously uh network sort of based companies you know they have network effects they have uh they have a lot of power they have a lot of power in government it's and this sort of uh i don't want to use the word singularity but this this this uh this crossover this convergence happens a lot sooner than it was even with the fiat money remember remember this is the fiat money chart bitcoin has no problem passing and staying above it for a long time right and for a few months i was running this and i was like oh maybe it just doesn't matter you know we'll be on a sat standard whatever but it's very interesting there's a few companies

that are still bigger than Bitcoin. And they grow exponentially. I want to believe I'll put my Bitcoin utopian hat on. I want to believe that Bitcoin's going to change the whole world

and move it to a system that is more sustainable. other people might have other ideas yeah what's the argument against that somebody like Apple would be like I don't like shareholders will not be happy with power trend growth they prefer the exponential growth that we exhibited for

the better part of half a century would there be like some internal pushback on that because they're essentially at some point accepting lower gross rate and

they're not happy with that so they would lobby the government and try to perturb the adoption of Bitcoin as a standard you see what I mean like if Bitcoin was just dwarfed the size of Apple in the projection

and I'm not saying the projection is gospel but it's pretty good and so far I believe in it but if Bitcoin was like dwarfed it it was like the safe place like it's like you take your risk in the stock market then you go back to the castle for safety then i wouldn't even ask this question but bitcoin does not dwarf apple it does not dwarf microsoft um also keep in mind gold grows exponentially and apple microsoft nvidia they're all smaller than gold gold is 20 a 20 trillion dollar asset at the moment gold is not going away gold is that great year right last couple years it's

gone up 3x it had a terrible 2010s peter schiff much to peter schiff's uh dismay much to his chagrin it's gone completely sideways uh until a couple years ago but there's a lot of moving parts here my point again hopefully the listeners can catch the thread of my uh i'm picking my jib here i'm not trying to be utopian i'm trying to show you some warnings i'm trying to show you the data there's a lot of numbers here uh where i've put this together yes we're in a dollar numeraire situation um but this looking at these large cap stock market caps against bitcoin is kind of interesting the growth rate so it's funny like we're focusing on apple tips i'm not sure if you've been paying attention to the conversation around apple

and the trad fi world which is they're falling behind we got a ton of cash they've reached a lot of equities analysts talk about this point like you get so big that your incentive really isn't to innovate bring new products to market and grow it's just like to protect the the cash flow cows that you've already produced which introduces like the innovators dilemma and it's something like is there like natural entropy to companies that reach a scale from a productivity and growth perspective yeah and actually that's a good coda i i should say that because again this is more analysis i need to do myself but remember this trend line for apple that i drew here this is only based on basically the best years of the company right like ipod was in full swing here

when bitcoin was launched they were just moving into the iphone which was a mega cash driver so this was like this was the best years of the company if you put a trend on this market cap growth 22 for you mega fucking mega but if you stretch this out and i went back to the 80s for apple i don't know what it is but their growth would be much lower like call it 10 i don't know and it's totally pot if you want to sort of it might be hard when i talk about constant growth but it all depends on where your starting point is when you do this okay so we picked a i'm picking the life of bitcoin to measure this but it's totally possible like you said that apple becomes like an ibm or something you know like a main like it's a bad analogy but you know

like it's a it's a more legacy tech company whatever and because of like you said the innovators dilemma they just need to help their shareholders it could be that if you back this out and you looked at the lifetime lifetime trend of the apple stock and let's just call it let's say it's 10 per year from the 80s not 22 from 2008 it could be that apple reverts to that lifetime trend and there and then you would still be on a lower trend than a trend that would be passed by bitcoin in a sooner manner in a sooner fashion than uh or in a more uh sustainable fashion let's say and then what this looks like so that's also a little coda i just i know we're talking a lot of numbers when i come on and i just want people to understand like i love this experiment yeah

your compound growth can change it's it's just pick a pick a lifetime number and see what it is and then you'll kind of get the broad framework of how things grow it's like the stock of gold grows 1.8 per year the actual units of gold that's the that's been a constant number for over 200 years yeah yeah because i mean it's hard to see people disrupting apple materially in the next decade on the phone and the laptops i think that's probably like the biggest driver of innovation within apple is actually the the chips the m1 m2 chips um they're pretty incredible phone they they're not innovating too much there and actually messing up the ui and the software that's a big question now with like meta open ai tesla uh microsoft's really leaning into ai and

apple falling behind that's like a lot of the analysts are like they're they're just they've turned into this massive bloated sort of fat and happy corporation that's just protecting its existing cash flows and yep just trying to sustain and is there some point in the future where that that entropy sort of hits a critical threshold where uh upstarts or competitors are able to take market share from them all all reasonable thoughts here i have it on my website as well if people want to check it out uh this is the ranking at the moment so nvidia is a nearly four trillion dollar company microsoft 3.7 apple here you see a 3.2 amazon 2.37 the bitcoin at 2.16 trillion just ahead of alphabet past meta pretty handily this year at 1.87 and then the old saudis

saudi aramco 1.61 trillion uh interesting interesting outlier there the only non-tech type company well it is uh i love these these charts because it really cements bitcoin as a brand name because when you think of like i mean nvidia is like a relatively new brand name but brand name nonetheless but then you get microsoft apple amazon google meta and nvidia has been around i mean nvidia has been around for decades yeah it's just way more popular these days yeah yeah no it's bitcoin is if actually i said six before it's ahead of google just now so if if bitcoin were a stock it'd be a top five stock globally it's unbelievable and if bitcoin is money which it is then you go back to this chart and it's a top six money including gold

so we got gold 20 trillion as i said a dollar by you know 5.8 trillion the euro 5.4 china this is from actually uh i need to update this but this is i think q4 uh euro 5.4 and the chinese yuan 5.25 trillion oh no i did up this yeah we're at 2.16 right now i'm looking at the share 2.16 this this live updates but sometimes uh the last quarter in native fiat is is uh updated every quarter but anyway the exchange rates operate update every day so yeah i mean that's my stuff man i'm uh i know i'm pumping a lot of my own stuff these days but uh if anyone would like to donate that's good pump your stuff you got my btc pay server i'm the anti-newsletter newsletter guy i mean i'm trying to give all this stuff away free um but you know if you if you like it

i stream daily and and uh i'd love to hear people's thoughts about the way things grow i feel like you should be selling this data to hedge funds i've been told that a lot uh because you're the only one who aggregates all of it right i know i know i know i know it's true it's honestly true there's no apis you got to go through and do it uh brass tacks it a lot of it it's kind of like look i mean i'm putting the peruvian you know central bank data in my exhibit does anybody really care about it that i think about that no they think about the price of apple so a lot of people have data to the real liquidity liquid markets that already you know that exists but it is an interesting more economic

thought experiment to put all the central bank money together i've been doing it for a long time there has to be some esoteric quant firm out there that would love this data the well uh i'm actually i'm playing with it again not to do my own harm or whatever but if i this is it's been a total closed loop like i don't i don't share it so i mean i if if people like it i i show it you know you have my reports quarterly reports we do the youtube videos uh the moment that i put it out there even if you put it out there behind a paywall obviously people can steal it right because it's in uh it's in uh whatever like json form and even if it's behind a paywall people can get to it and great things and

whatever everybody's got to make a buck i'm trying no doubt to continue i enjoy this uh i just accept it's value for value for me so it's like donations if you like it please throw some stats my way but if uh you don't you don't have to follow and that's will you go down to your btc server please we're gonna show the power of bitcoin right now yes we will do it live on air you're the man dude lightning yeah let's do lightning let me see love you dude that's power bitcoin watch this is the beauty of bitcoin you're completely on the other side of the world

bam and there it is dude that's a that's a good one thank you so much my man thank you well thank you i don't pay for guests okay this is not what just happened here i have never uh requested payment just to be clear i have never only donations only donations value for value yeah it is a ton of value no and again whether it's uh what's going on in eastern europe or how to think of because i i've been we've been doing this show for six or seven years now it's hard to believe yeah quarterly and then you're in the uh i think you're probably the most you're definitely the most tenured guests on the show now at this point we've probably done 24 20 to 24 of these yeah which is insane um we'll continue to do them

won't we yeah we will and because like it is like again going back to like i have to remind myself even when i was going back to looking at the power trend and internalizing that and just using that internalization as a filter for all the noise that is rampant on an intraday basis and only going to increase from here like i have to remind myself like this is why these these quarterly updates are somewhat of a of a bitcoin therapy session for me to ground me back in reality just understand that we have this network growth rate that's happening it's observable it is repeatable in other with other networks um outside of bitcoin and i think just looking at this observable data is very valuable thank you for putting it together

well uh you're welcome and i also want to say i appreciate you listening uh to my soapbox rants about ukraine now for three years because i am well aware there are plenty of bitcoiners maga types or even if you're not a maga type and consider yourself a purist libertarian uh you probably don't know a lot about that situation but again i'm trying to you know i'm pretty grounded over here i feel like we're literally under threat from a dictatorial regime and it's just you know you might yeah go ahead i was gonna say going back to what i was saying earlier like i'm a big believer in information systems and those closer to the information or the data

probably have a better sense of what's going on and like physically you are there yeah it's not easy it's going to continue that's my problem with the federal government too it's like you have all these people in DC making decisions from the east coast and they're making

decisions for people in Idaho nobody making those decisions is close to the information that should be guiding those decisions Yeah, precisely. That's the problem with the Federal Reserve. The problem with even a decentralized network of 12 Federal Reserve branches, which, you know, you've got like a Richmond Fed. Kind of weird now. Anyway, they don't know, like you said, what the real reserve ratio should be for banks in Wyoming or something, or wherever. so i know richmond's not in wyoming they're just making an example of many different places where people can be and uh your planning board as friedrich hayek says is never uh never going to work like the market so we do have the nuclear issue we have the nuclear uh umbrella issue and

it's it's uh it's it's tense right now i'm not gonna lie it's tense for us the ukrainians are suffering and um you know i appreciate you guys listening and i i say that's all the listeners as well because i know i can be strident about it but i also feel that i'm right and i feel that uh if you're a republican traditional centrist uh call yourself libertarian whatever you have a lot of ground to stand on as far as being prepared to stand up against a threat i'm not talking about wokeism or all the other rest of them you know i'm just talking about a real normal threat and um it was two democratic administrations where ukraine fell way behind in the free world so anyway it's a i appreciate you guys letting me blend topics when i come on the show and

talk about long-term trends of bitcoin and then other geopolitical stuff well we appreciate you coming to do it and i think if we're living true to the name of this company tftc truth for the commoner i think the way you find truth is getting different perspectives on the same topic so i love i love our quarterly updates even the parts that that a lot of the uh the listeners don't like so well we're gonna see we're gonna see all i can say is uh the direction that the administration is currently moving in is the direction that i was screaming for three and a half years uh you know you tried appeasement let's see what happens

we shall see chamberlain tried appeasement as well so keep that in mind yeah well uh q2 2025 ended nine days ago so i'm sure we'll be catching up it typically takes you a month so yeah and this one uh we took a lot it took a while for us to do this show but uh you know we got honey badger coming up in august and things but i think by august uh mid-august we can do another one already catch up with q2 all right sweet so we'll catch up next month i've got a hop all right we'll call it the top of the hour but uh thank you gentlemen go support the man doing all the work to serve one base money is my handle if you're curious at one base money and uh porkopolis economics.io

that's the website go check it out peace and love for you guys take care freaks thank you for listening to the show i hope you liked it if you did like it please make sure you subscribe rate review the show it helps us out a lot and also if you like these conversations i've come to realize that many people listen to the podcast they don't know we have another sort of layer of this media company we have the newsletter the bitcoin brief go to tftc.io make sure you subscribe there a lot of the topics that are discussed on this podcast i write about five days a week in the newsletter we also have the tftc elite tier if you sign up for that become a member we have a private discord server for the elite freaks out there where we're dropping

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