TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #650: The Fed-Treasury Merger and Inflation Reality Check with Dave Collum & Rudy Havenstein

Episode Date: August 11, 2025

Marty sits down with Dave Collum and Rudy Havenstein to discuss the merger of the Fed and Treasury, real inflation rates versus official statistics, housing market dysfunction, the Epstein scandal cov...er-up, government corruption, surveillance state expansion, and the systemic breakdown of American institutions. Dave Collum on Twitter: https://x.com/DavidBCollum Rudy Havenstein on Twitter: https://x.com/RudyHavenstein STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBz Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Coinkite https://coinkite.com Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free if you talk about a fed just gone nuts all all the central banks going nuts so it's all acting like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean that's part of the bull case for bitcoin if you're not paying attention you probably should be well no rudy i think it's me and you're gonna steer dave back on that on track here i'm told dave dave's a force of nature i know i know it's been two years since we lost last caught up maybe even three i feel like the first time we caught up too i think we've only done one
Starting point is 00:00:55 threesome yeah yeah yeah and uh obviously a lot's happened since then but let's just jump into current topics and since we have rudy on the call maybe we focus on what your perspective is with the wobbling between trump jerome powell and treasury and the fed it seems like we're at a point where the administration just wants to call not bullshit but just like all Right. We're going to merge the Fed and the Treasury. We're going to make it happen. There's not going to be any facade that there's independence from the from the Fed moving forward because we're in such a predicament that we need. So I'm going to do like Rudy. Hi, I'm Dave. I'm behind the face here. I'm behind the face. I'm a dog. I'm only two years old. there you go um well you know haven't we had haven't we had a merger of the fed and the
Starting point is 00:01:56 treasury i mean look i posted the other day about this sure looks like fiscal dominance to me and it's a chart of you know 10 plus years of zerp and um so you should be recording marty right yeah so we are recording we've been recording and at 10 i would have i would have put my pants on okay go ahead anyway this is gonna be interesting at 10 plus years of uh of the fed balance sheet you know going uh lower left upper right so um you know uh they you know powell likes to say things like um oh we don't have you know someone asked him a question about you know fiscal matters he said oh that's that's not our remit we don't we don't affect fiscal matters well you don't affect fiscal matters other than monetizing you know at the peak nine trillion dollars worth of
Starting point is 00:02:42 bonds i mean he basically uh enabled congress to be uh completely profligate and um you know forever and uh they bought the mortgage-backed securities which to me is not only probably illegal not that that matters but um uh it totally screwed up the housing market when houses were already going up 20 year over year so yeah i think they've already merged you know they can pretend and uh there's people uh you know several people have said have said the quip that you know the job of the of the fed is to keep the make the treasury look solvent and that's what they've been trying to do all these years and i'm sure it's only going to get worse and and you know no one's been as big a critic of powell as me then but um whoever's going to replace him is going to
Starting point is 00:03:27 you know be much much much uh worse probably more worse yeah worse so um and powell went insane you know during covid and before but lately he's just he finally after talking about it for 15 years or more they they finally normalized rates these are normal rates we have right now they are not abnormal rates i mean the the average fed funds rate i just looked the other day oh no the average 10-year yield i mean we're at we're at historic averages it's around five percent you know this is a hundred year average i think the data like some of them go back to 62 1962 so you're talking 60 years. So, you know, I mean, someone the other day, in fact, I was working on my sub stack and somebody made a, I was listening to some podcasts and the guy made a comment and he's talking about
Starting point is 00:04:11 the long, the long term tenure yield. And he used, so for the past 20 years, it's around 3%, which is, which is actually correct. It's actually, I looked it up since, well, since August 20, 2005, August, 2005, the average tenure yield is 2.91 and the median is 2.75. But if, but if you go back to when the fred data starts which is 1962 the average 10-year yield is uh 5.83 and the median is 5.5 i was gonna say three percent sounded way too low to me yeah i mean but but this guy considers you know if you consider the last 20 years to be long-term history that was a period of when every central bank on earth went insane you know um and what's the 10-year yield right now 4.28 so we're still well below um historic averages um anyway that's all you know
Starting point is 00:05:03 don't get me started no and that's like i've been saying this for the last few months when everybody it's funny because you see it in the bitcoin space you particularly see it in like silicon valley tech they're like trump's right to be berating too late pal he needs lower rates it's like well inflation isn't really solved like real inflation's not solved and to your point rudy like shouldn't we want rates to be above the zero bound to actually add some opportunity cost and into the markets and make people weigh decisions like, and then we have stock markets at all time highs. Obviously the last jobs report revisions came in a bit lower,
Starting point is 00:05:39 but you can really depend on that data. Like I think the goal should be to hold rates as high as possible for long as possible. And obviously the fiscal side of things, can't let that happen and to the point about i agree the fed and the treasury have essentially been merged for years now but they're just completely not even going to pretend well that is in the constitution i mean you know the the and people say wait a minute you want congress to be setting monetary policy and and and i'm like oh yeah it would be horrible i completely agree but at least they'd be somewhat accountable there's no accountability now at any at any level in
Starting point is 00:06:15 anything really but i mean there's no all the people you know all the people that five years ago on the Fed, every single one of them said, we want higher inflation. We want inflation over two percent for a long time. And then they got it. It's one of the only things they actually got right. And I mean, at least from what they predicted. And then what has that done? It's house prices. No one can afford a house anymore. And people are really hurting from this inflation and they can pretend all day long. Trump says there's no inflation. You know, as I joke that all the Republicans now say there's no inflation and all the Democrats say that the only inflation comes from tariffs. Well, they actually specifically stated in 2020 that the Fed
Starting point is 00:06:54 wanted to raise inflation above 2%. And 2% is a number they made up to begin with. There is no mandate for 2%. They made it up. Their mandate is stable prices. And nobody brings this up because nobody in Congress, the Fed is Congress's drug dealer. So there's very few people in Congress that want a responsible Fed. The Fed has basically acted as an agent of congressional profligacy since 2008 at least, that coup d'etat that happened. And then we had another one in 2020, a big transfer of wealth upwards, and it's been going on ever since.
Starting point is 00:07:32 So I posted the other day that I'm probably the only guy on Twitter who thinks I ought to raise the rights. um and and uh and jerome powell the other day said that uh when asked about housing he said well they just haven't built enough houses i thought about that for a second i thought okay so let me see if i got this right um the people who who are not living in houses are living on the street and the answer is no and he goes so they're living in apartments and the answer is Yes, and therefore we have plenty of housing. It's just that the rents in the houses are just expensive as hell.
Starting point is 00:08:15 And that stems from the fact that they let BlackRock and Barry Sternlicht and these guys borrow money at 0.15% and buy up all the goddamn houses. And now we have the divergence between the number of sellers and buyers on the market right now higher than it's ever been with sellers way out. It's collapsing. I think Darth Powell's got this one under control, right? He posts as many posts about the housing market being in total chaos as Rudy posts about the Fed being full of shit, which is quite a – it's astronomical numbers for both of those two postings, but they're correct. So, Paul's posting real estate data every day, just every day, over and over on Twitter. And the real estate market is going south right now. And they're just not admitting it or something.
Starting point is 00:09:12 I don't know. Sorry. I jumped off for a second there. I'm back. So, if I missed anything, I'm sorry. No, we're just talking about housing. But isn't that a bad thing that the housing market is going down? Obviously, it's way over.
Starting point is 00:09:22 No, it's got to go down. It's got to go down. I think it's a great thing. I think it's wonderful. Melody Wright, just listen to her last night. And she said, you know, the median household income is 80 grand. And so she said that – and she knows from looking at – you know, she's in the business of mortgages. She said that means you can afford a house maybe comfortably $250,000 to $300,000.
Starting point is 00:09:41 And the – what's the median price? I don't know. I looked it up earlier. Median sales price. It's like $436,000. Yeah, yeah, right. Well over $4,000. It's so variable.
Starting point is 00:09:51 Well, I know. And if they drop rates, you know. But here's the thing. People say, well, you know, you own a home and you got a 3% mortgage. That's great. Well, look at your property taxes. Look at your mortgage. Look at your insurance, house insurance.
Starting point is 00:10:05 Look at the cost of a new roof. You know what I mean? Everything's doubling. So, yeah, you know, your house, I mean, you're paying, you know, 3% mortgage is a gift. I don't, I mean, I wish I had, you know, taken money at 2.75%. But but you can you can make you can make a counter argument. That is so. So the price times the, you know, as a function of the interest rate, you're going to pay as much as you can. I'd rather buy a dirt cheap house at high rates because you can fix that.
Starting point is 00:10:40 Absolutely. Yeah. You know, my first houses were over 10 percent. And I know people that had like 18 percent mortgages, but the house has cost, you know, one tenth as much. That's right. So I saw a stat. I've now seen it three different places. And one was a graphic, which was helpful because it means they looked at it. That said it happens to start in 81, which is the year I bought my first house. And I had a 16 percent mortgage. and um and the average home buyer first time home buyer in 1981 was 32 years old it's now 54 yeah disgusting at 54 you're supposed to be thinking about selling your house moving into
Starting point is 00:11:21 an old folks home at that point right that's just that's just insanity yeah and it's i feel i mean as a millennial just still renting consciously because i haven't found like the forever house that i want to raise the family and yet at a price at a price that makes sense for how many kids you got now marty how many kids you got i got my third coming next month there you go jesus did your mother not have a chat with you about how that happens oh by the way do you notice who won the national title in lacrosse this year yeah cornell charlie curse towards on he's a beast uh finally okay i never mind mr tangent just a black black blind blind not found a squirrel well that was a great game they they tooled maryland it was uh it was a whooping yeah yeah yeah okay never mind
Starting point is 00:12:10 actually i would love to get your perspectives on this i'm sure you've seen it there's like this massive sort of social positioning like millennials gen z gen x even versus the boomers and there's a ton of uh people that are sort of pissed at the boomers because they're refusing to sell their houses and don't plan on passing down their wealth and i think that's one of the fiction is it yeah do you think so yeah i'm i'm trying to pass i can't sell my house until i have a refrigerator box to live in or something right so so i have to live in my house i'm not going to sell my house and and and the problem is is that who am i going to sell it to the next generation doesn't have any money right it's too expensive it's too expensive so there's going to
Starting point is 00:12:57 be they talk about the wealth transfer it's not going to be that's going to be the price correction right well the houses i've seen that are very expensive that you know the person passes away uh and like several kids inherit it or one kid they all sell they sell the houses they don't the kid they got to sell it you know and um and and that's so that's what happens so they're coming on the market as the demographics gets older more people die off um you know another thing melody was talking about she was doing it with um palestine's gold um radio podcast which is good but um yeah i mean where yeah where are you supposed to go dude tom broad yeah he's great he's he's great right he's a he's a sort of a redneck blue collar type guy too he really he's
Starting point is 00:13:39 he's grounded um and um well you know it's the the wealth is not going to transfer it's going to reprice in my opinion i i said that i i said if you think you're going to get the boomers are going to transfer their wealth without it getting repriced you're out of your mind yeah well the other thing another thing that happened i mean first of all a lot of societies also today are related to things just costing too damn much and and yet the people the people who who advocate for that and and and create that situation congress and the and the federal reserve it's like they're They're given a free pass on it. You know, people need to be angry at the right people.
Starting point is 00:14:19 And it's the Federal Reserve and your profligate Congress that's been – and presidents, of course, that have caused your cost of living to double, I think, in the last so many years. You know, the CPI is a joke. I always explain that many times. You can't – it's not intended to tell you the cost of living. It's intended to keep COLA benefits low, you know. What do you think, if you had to take a wild guess at the real rate of inflation right now, Rudy, what would you guess? Well, my biggest expenses are going up double digits. So health insurance, house insurance, car insurance went up 41% a couple years ago.
Starting point is 00:14:56 That's with no accidents or anything. I mean, and then to have them say, oh, well, and then to have the pundits on TV talking about this month, inflation came in at 2.7% as, you know, it was estimated to be 2.8%. I'm like, I'm just, you know, you can imagine. I'm just like, look, you know, half the times I tweet about it, it's total BS, you know, and I think everyone knows that. And people are a little more vocal about it now, but I think a lot of people don't realize where it's coming from. You know, and lately the Democrats, you know, they've been advocating inflationary policies forever, you know, the brainers of the world and the yellings. And yet, and then when tariffs come up, which I think are inflationary, they freak out suddenly about inflation.
Starting point is 00:15:36 You know, it's a total political game. You know, if if Trump was violently opposed to tariffs, they'd be in favor of him. You know, it's just so stupid. You can flip the tariff argument. Now, this is only in theory. I understand. You can make the argument that the tariff is a tax and that if it alleviated tax elsewhere. See, one of the beauties of using tariff as a tax, let's say there's a trillion dollars with the tariff tax.
Starting point is 00:16:00 Some percentage of that will be swallowed by importers. some percentage of it will be swallowed by the exporters sending it here, and some percentage will be swallowed by the consumer. If that got translated into a trillion-dollar tax deduction on your house or something, that would be a net win. But they're not going to do that. Yeah, they're not going to do it. That's a theoretical construct.
Starting point is 00:16:25 Yeah. Well, Logan, pull up the tweet because, like, I think this is the real rate of inflation since 2020. i'm sure you guys saw this but this was going around facebook shared on x the woman who was like wondering why the 12-pack of drinks she's been buying is more expensive and then she went into her walmart cart and saw a package of 30 goods she bought in 2020 was 70 for those goods back then then she went and re-added them to their cart and today they're 165 dollars that's like 135 45.6X inflation.
Starting point is 00:16:59 I can verify the 12-pack. The price is on the 12-pack. I don't even – it's – you know, you have these 89-cent – you know, like the big bottles like Coke or something, you know, the big plastic bottle. Those were 89 cents probably six years ago. And they're now on sale for $2.50, you know, each. We used to buy 10-cent Cokes when we were a kid, Brody. Well, I know. And then, you know, me, I'm inflationist.
Starting point is 00:17:27 I mean, look at my name on, look at my nom de gore on, you know, on Twitter. It's meant to be a warning, you know, not an encouragement. But everything is affected by the, when you change the value of money, you're effing with everything. You know what I mean? A lot of, you know, I have tons of quotes from famous people, smart people talking about this, but we don't have smart people running things. so many decades ago i sent an email out and i i said when i was 13 years old i carried two golf bags it takes four hours and i would be paid 10 bucks that's two and a half bucks an hour i happen to remember just by chance because we're at a pizza place my brother almost got in a fight
Starting point is 00:18:10 there and and so it was kind of a memorable night we bought an extra large pizza you know thrown in the air by an italian not a domino's guy right an extra large plain pizza for two bucks so as a 13 year old i was paid one and a quarter pizzas per hour that is a purchasing power that is not imaginable today unless you're doing tricks behind wendy's dumpster right that i actually sent to elizabeth warren and she put it on her blog and and uh a long time ago back before she was a complete douchebag yeah right yeah right yeah you know it's interesting she did uh there's a there's a gold mine um of information in the fcic uh the financial crisis inquiry commission uh interviews that they did and she did one and i've posted on it and she actually talks about the role that
Starting point is 00:19:02 inflation had in forcing everybody um to get into debt uh back in uh you know the 80s when they took got rid of the usury laws and all that. She makes a lot of sense. And, of course, I think she's since gone insane. But, you know, there was a time. Do you think there was a lurking demon in there? Or do you think it really did just scorch her? Well, I think it's what you said, Dave, that she took to politics way too easily.
Starting point is 00:19:28 I think she had a character flaw and politics brought it out, you know. Right. The best example that I love to use, and I've done this for years and it keeps going up, The minimum wage back in, I think, 64, 63 was a buck and a quarter or five silver dollars, you know, and five silver dollars are today worth 30, almost 35 bucks. So it's, as I like to say, it's five quarters, five, what I say, five, yeah, five quarters, sorry, five quarters, which is $1.25. We're getting our economic wisdom from a guy who does math like that, Martin. Well, no. Anyway, silver quarters, silver quarters. I'm not very smart. $35. So the minimum wage would be like $35. I like to say the silver didn't change the money, the currency did. so yeah well dave using your your hourly wage when i was 13 i worked at a hot dog stand down here
Starting point is 00:20:28 i made eight bucks an hour and actually like 13 to 16 i made eight i think it worked my way up to 10 bucks an hour by the time i was 15 that's when the recession that was like 2008 um recession hit the pizza shop down here had a recession special where you could buy a whole pizza for 15 so i was making like less than a pizza yeah two-thirds of a pizza um in a recession at minimum wage um and it's if you go back and you look at one time i i tried to do this manually i tried to beat boskin at his own game and i went and got a 1967 series robot catalog out of the archive of our library and i started flipping through it the problem is there there is a need to hedonically adjust so when you look you go that's just not the same lawn tractor you know that's just and
Starting point is 00:21:21 i finally gave up because it seemed just too anecdotal but um there was a time when i was a kid where you'd go to the gas station there'd be three guys servicing your car and somehow we created wealth so efficiently that that some guy like al bundy on married with children could work in some schlup of a job and come home and feed his family you know and and that's just not possible there was a statement the other day that said um 62 percent this is stunning actually this is not a statement about economics my opinion 62 percent of people with 300 000 a year salary are suffering from credit card problems yeah three three hundred thousand dollar salary 62 percent now i don't live san francisco so that might be the problem sup freaks this rip of tftc was brought to you by
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Starting point is 00:23:46 Another thing is that financial education in this country is non-existent. And people are, and I think the consumer finance industry loves it that way. There's a lot of people that are not smart with money, that are otherwise intelligent people. I've seen it. I've seen guys that make, you know, this is many years ago, a guy was making probably $80,000 a year, and he had $80,000 in credit card debt. and his friend told me this and I, and I, and I said to him, this is a very smart,
Starting point is 00:24:10 you know, software engineer guy. And I, I was trying to explain, you know, you're paying 25% a year on 80 grand. What is it? He goes, no, I just make the minimum payment. I go, you know, if you make the minimum payment, you're never going to pay off. It's just going to grow. He, it did not click to this guy. It just like it was, maybe it was, you know, on the spectrum or something. He just didn't get that. This was a horrible financial decision he was making. And I see that every day, you know, and people, you know, complaining about prices and prices. My point is prices are ridiculous. And the inflation is a major, major problem for 90% of America. But, you know, the kids can go through high school without knowing what a
Starting point is 00:24:51 checkbook is, without knowing how credit works, without knowing how contracts work. You know, I mean, the best course I took in junior college was business law. And, you know, because it taught you about contracts and stuff because my you know my parents never taught me that they didn't know anything about that they you know they they they never owned stocks or anything and unless you look on your own now as a young person you don't know you have no idea so what how finance works and then you go to college and you get 15 credit card you know come ons in them in the mail and um so i don't want to you know i don't i think it's a predatory system i mean uh And Steve Eisman, you know, talks about it in the Big Short or is quoted in the Big Short about it.
Starting point is 00:25:34 It's an industry designed to screw, you know, poor people mostly. You know, Elizabeth Warren pointed out, and I'll repost this from her FCIC testimony, that they learned that they could make more money by loaning to people with bad credit than people with good credit. And because of all the fees and the rates and all that. and um and they've been screwing people ever since i think i think it's pretty it's like loan sharks one step you know they don't break your knees anymore but uh they can ruin your life well and it's extending further and further out i'm sure you guys saw it a few months ago when um i forget it was like a firm or one of the sort of short-term loan companies at the partnership
Starting point is 00:26:16 with uh doordash to short-term finance burrito deliveries like they're they're having to go Yeah, yeah, yeah. Private credit market. And that's estimated, what, Malady puts out at $4 trillion maybe or something? Yeah. That's going to blow up completely. Well, and that was the question I had when they did that. Because typically they were like layaway, bigger ticket items, just financing that, which sort of made sense. but like going down to literally payday lending for burrito deliveries it's like was that a sign that their bigger ticket items weren't getting paid back and they had to move up um move downstream to these smaller ticket items to try i ordered coffee i ordered two pounds of ground coffee
Starting point is 00:27:03 from the local coffee shop and they offered me to make it for payments and for payments yeah I had the advantage of actually being raised by a guy who ran a construction company, and he designed his own pension plan. He designed his own health plan, and he negotiated with a union contract. He was the president of the New York State Builders Exchange. So we would sit around the kitchen table and talk about economics. We would talk about economics at the street level, though. This was not some, you know, differential equation bullshit. This is this is I'd make some stupid statement when I'm eight years old, something like, you know, people should all be paid the same.
Starting point is 00:27:45 And he would then explain to me why that's really stupid and that he should do a paternity test on me. Right. And but but by the end, you get out of high school and you can't possibly have missed the key messages sitting around that kitchen table. Yeah. Well, yeah. Well, a lot of people don't have that. i know and and mine was entirely self-taught i don't know why i was drawn to to be interested in all these things financial but i would i just was because i didn't get it from home well i think another thing that's that's happening i think like kids don't really like i noticed that i vacation at the shore and when i grew up down here like i had i started selling papers when i was 12 on the beach and i worked at the hot dog stand until
Starting point is 00:28:30 i found an internship in college it worked at the hot dog stand my first two years in college but i feel like kids don't work that much anymore like they don't start young and uh i had those lessons of i mean i got paid out in cash every day it was actually a terrible way to get introduced to money as like a 13 year old getting 50 bucks a day go buy a bunch of candy but over time sort of learn i used to i used to used to be able to sell newspaper for half a cent a pound they'd recycle it and there was actually a market for it so there was this place in downtown Syracuse you could drive a station wagon full of newspapers they'd pay a half a cent a pound for them and I would literally take a wagon and walk down the street I'm going to guesstimate based on I know
Starting point is 00:29:14 how far I got maybe two miles down the street knocking on doors saying do you have any old newspapers and then I'd haul this wagon back full of newspapers weighing way more than me and I'd put it in the back of the garage and I'd get mom or dad to take me to the recycling place and I'd get a couple of bucks I can relate Marty
Starting point is 00:29:37 I started delivering papers the throw away papers probably 6th grade 7th grade and I never took a penny from my parents after that ever because first of all they didn't have it and I always was making money
Starting point is 00:29:53 you know, make, you know, a short order cook or working at a, you know, liquor store, grocery store, et cetera. So I, and a lot of my friends were like that too, you know, um, at the, at the worst, you got a job at 15 when you could get a work permit, you know, back then. Um, and then the other, you know, so it's just very different now that I was, you know, we're very tended to be, you know, these sort of latchkey kids that were never home. Um, the other thing that's fine, I find interesting that I've seen is that, uh, you know, we, we were got our driver's licenses the second, you know, we were able to, you know, get your learner's permit, get your driver's license. I think I see kids now that are, well, I'm aware of kids now that they tend to wait
Starting point is 00:30:32 longer. I hear it from their parents, you know, they may be in their 18, 19, 20, and they don't have a driver's license, which I can't, I can't relate to. And this is in an area that's not like New York City where you can, you know, take the subway or take the, you know, you can walk to everything um so i don't know maybe it's because they just kids are now taking uber i don't know yeah just the other thing is the clouds the jonathan height books which i think i've read every one of them um really tells a horror story of the kids being highly damaged by the digital world so you know you step on an elevator right and in the olden days you had to figure out how to cope with the fact that there were other people there and you had to talk to them and
Starting point is 00:31:13 And, you know, or you had to stare at your shoes or you had to do something. And now you step on the elevator and everyone's staring at their phone. And I think they have lost social skills. I realized this year the kids in my class was a sophomore level class. They were all sweet kids, but they were all they all had the personality of the shy kid in the class. There were no gregarious kids who'd crack wisecracks. And trust me, I imagine you can agree with this. I love wisecracks in class, right?
Starting point is 00:31:46 That would be me. That's right. That would be me. I mean, I one time remember in a class of 500 where the guy did the math on how many sperm cells you put out per shot and how many you were given in an anthro course. He did the math wrong. And he lost three decimal points. And I said, I raised my hand and I said, Professor, according to your math, you get eight shots at having children. And I'd say most of us used them up before middle school was over.
Starting point is 00:32:13 Well, fortunately, I want kids like that. I want kids like that in my classroom. Yeah, of course. Right. And some chick in my, you know, one point said, you know, you know, some guy made reference to salty semen. I don't remember why. And some girl said, well, why does it taste that salty? You know, and I've gone, you want to go out tonight?
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Starting point is 00:33:20 slash TFTC. And also, if you're using Unchained, you can use the code TFTC for $50 off any of their services. Go check it out. Yeah, but I will say this because there's a lot of young people bashing uh just like there's a lot of you know boomer bashing which i think is i i i dislike both um we've neither is appropriate neither is appropriate there's good and bad in every in every group um it's not i mean uh it's not uh the uh the young kids i don't even know what these different groups are i don't fall into that generational group thing but it's it's it's not the young people that got us into 37 trillion in debt or over 200 i guess when you count the you know the liability future liabilities uh it's not them that got it's not the young people that
Starting point is 00:34:03 got us into all these endless wars and they're still trying to get us into wars you know it's not the young people it's the people that are you know trump's age and biden's age and clinton's age and all that you know so it's not even the people either it's not the system it's really it's just a bunch of psychopaths who've got control yeah that's the only thing that kind of explains everything that's gone on is exactly what you just said yeah well well let's dive into this like the system, the psychopaths in control, going back to what we started the conversation with, like the Fed, Powell's getting bullied to lower rates, but inflation, real inflation doesn't seem to be controlled.
Starting point is 00:34:38 You have tech- Even their number, even using their CPI, it's been above their target for over four years. Yeah. So why are we talking about cutting rates? Now you could get into the whole debate of does cutting rates raise inflation, blah, blah, blah, you know, but yeah, why are we even talking about it? If the theory is that, you know, higher rates damp down inflation. I have another theory.
Starting point is 00:34:59 I think Trump's bullying Powell so that Powell can't cave so that it's going to drive the market and the economy into a recession. And then Trump can say that's Powell's fault. I told you. Yes. Yeah. He's got Powell for a while longer to blame if something goes wrong. And even after Powell leaves, he'll be blamed, you know, if something goes wrong. that he waited too long or something.
Starting point is 00:35:25 Yeah, I think that's a reasonable theory. Trump probably loves having Powell there to bash because that's just how this guy operates. They might have even talked, for all I know, right? Yeah, I mean— Because Powell probably— If Powell's got a half a brain, then Powell might know he shouldn't lower rates.
Starting point is 00:35:47 It reminds me of Megyn Kelly and Donald Trump getting in a fight in the first debate. 2016. Right. And I'm going, there's no way that just broke out like that. Those two planned that. The Varese O'Donnell joke. Yeah. I only ever call Varese O'Donnell. These things are being teed up for us. This is all theater.
Starting point is 00:36:05 Everything is what? What is it? K-fob? How do you pronounce it? K-fob. Hegelian dialectic. Well, that's like why it's perplexing too, particularly at lower rates. So you look at tech forward PE multiples, they're at all-time highs at like 27. And it's clear that they're trying to position this administration, AI and broader crypto, which is all bullshit, as like, hey, we're about to have like insane growth. And I think that's the question a lot of people have is, is it actually there? And if you look at the headlines from this morning, you had Medigot tap PIMCO for a debt deal so that they can build these data centers, which would signal that the investment they put in already isn't really paying back and need to take more risks.
Starting point is 00:36:49 You know, when we do a renovation of a floor in the Kemp Building because it's 40 years old and it's time to take it down to the studs and rebuild it, it takes two years. So when Tim Cook says, oh, we're going to put $600 billion into whatever, by the time he has to stick a shovel in the ground, Trump's going to be a lame duck. Yeah. And as a consequence, he can pretend like he's going to do shit. they can even design the data center knowing that it'll be built in south korea yeah dave we're getting word from logan that your dog is snoring into the mic oh is that right yeah okay see that's the part i can't hear i can't hear that i just looked i was wondering when someone was gonna say something you you got on me last time
Starting point is 00:37:38 for clicking my pen dave so you know you know i'm gonna if you're wearing headphones you do not realize what the background noise is i tend to tap you know i hear you um i just looked up fart coins uh market cap quote unquote market caps a billion dollars so is policy restrictive i don't know you know i there's and there's a million examples of this i mean what's trump coins uh uh market cap you know that's probably 20 billion why do you think um and now you can having an ira along with your private equity um that's a scary one that's that's a terrifying story is that actually going to happen or is it being discussed i think he was supposed to sign it yesterday i don't know yeah i don't know if it's official that that imminent yeah that is
Starting point is 00:38:28 going that is that is the bell being rung why do you say that well because private equity is full of dog shit that's not worth anything and now they're putting it into 401k yes it's the bag they're going to be um yeah it's the uh exit what do you call it exit liquidity for the for the billionaires distribution yeah they're going to give it to ma and pa kettle and um for in their iras you know because some salesmen will tell them oh this is great this is what all the rich people are in and of course you know the rich people are i mean i've posted a ton on private equity i think private equity getting you know like inflation is a cancer on it as a cancer in america the whole business plan and the design and the way the way it works is is evil and you know gretchen
Starting point is 00:39:10 morgeson's great on that and and there's been some other people and funds of funds right so if you got a private equity guy who's buying another private equity guy that you got the 220s hitting you squared yeah right it's all about fees well you know we gotta we gotta keep steve schwartzman you know he's got to have a higher net worth every year we're doing something wrong Right. So, yeah. Yeah. It's it's criminal that the Trump administration, someone posted today that it's a complete. Oh, I forget the word. I don't know. Well, yeah, but just it's a slap in the face to the to the to his base of supporters, of which I was not one. And of course, I always have to then say, and I'm glad Kamala lost.
Starting point is 00:39:52 OK, so so there you go. But that's the problem. It's just been shockingly, shockingly, but not surprisingly bad. My colleagues had a certain clarity after the election because I'd got an earful about anything but Trump. Right. Right. And they seem to realize that they'd been duped by their own party and they seem to recognize that they shouldn't be mad at Trump. they should be mad at their party for for putting up they had so many candidates they could have turned to including unknown people like a jimmy carter who shows up out of nowhere but they could are you telling me that tulsi gabbard and bobby kennedy couldn't want a national election as a ticket no not as a democrat they would not they wouldn't the party would never allow that they wouldn't allow that no but they had them they had them they were right there's a fantastic interview
Starting point is 00:40:41 with a lady named lindy lee that's on the sean ryan show um she was a guest and uh she's a big democratic gazillionaire donor and she kind of broke off with the party on that and they said that everybody that's fantastic i have i'll repost some of my clips i made from it but she talks about how um their internal polling they didn't think that there was anybody uh who could beat biden or who was better than biden in other words and so they and they went with kamala even though she is very clear they she goes they didn't hate her they just thought so little of her is the way she phrased it and but there's no way that they can their base is going to let them get rid of kamala harris who looks the exact opposite of joe biden which is why she's vice president
Starting point is 00:41:28 right so they went with her and it's almost like i don't know a kamikaze sort of mission because it doesn't sound like anybody in the democratic party really thought she could win so um i i don't understand that but i highly recommend you know someone who was on the inside uh uh uh talk to talk about what went on with the democratic party um and the other there's an interesting question ryan asks her uh he says um hey what's what's why are the democrats so panicked about trump you know are they worried about the epstein list coming out of the epstein files and lindy lee blurts out They think he's on the list. So see, a lot of people like, well, if the if the Democrats had this, why didn't they release it? And I think I think that they're misunderstanding who has the information.
Starting point is 00:42:15 It's not Joe Biden and the Democratic Party or or the GOP that has this information. And if anybody should have it, it's the GOP, because Trump was president 2019 when the second time Epstein was arrested. um so it's this this stuff it's it's held i believe by intelligence agencies and in fact even after the fbi raided his new york mansion while they were waiting on something and again i have posts on all of this their um evidence was stolen out of the safe and i and i i joked that well the evidence probably belonged to intelligence i mean so it's not like and and as another thing i point out is intelligence doesn't want to punish these guys for whatever they did, nefarious, they want to control them. They want to be able to call up Dave, Dave, you
Starting point is 00:42:58 know, or your honor, some judge, hey, you got this case coming up. We'd really like you to rule this way on it. Or, you know, we'd really hate to have that, you know, video that came out. And, you know, Trump loves to say, I was never on the island. I was never on the island. You know, he was on the, he was in the mansion countless times. I mean, I posted stories five or six years ago about, You know, about early 2000 or 2000 stories of Trump and other very famous, very wealthy men in Epstein's mansion, which was wired floor to ceiling with cameras. I mean, the article that I posted even said, you know, the Secret Service would have appreciated the numerous security cameras that Epstein had. It was so blatant that they mentioned it. And by the way, it wasn't just Clinton there.
Starting point is 00:43:41 It was also if Sergey Brin was there at this particular dinner. Oh, yeah. A Bill Clinton aide, an unnamed Bill Clinton aide, some British – former British parliament member. I mean it's – so when you say I didn't go to the island, that means nothing. That just means – that probably means you weren't extremely bad in that area. But Larry Summers went. Bill Clinton went many times. And I'm completely bipartisan on this.
Starting point is 00:44:07 I'm like round them all up. I don't care what D or R is after their name and actually investigate them. There's hundreds of known victims because there's a Epstein Victims Compensation Fund, which is run by David Boies, and Nick Bryant has some comments on him. Boy, Bryant does not like David Boies. No, and I like Bryant. Bryant's great. But there's hundreds, but they have to sign an NDA once they get the money. And as Carl Denninger, who had a great rant that I posted the other day, said, these are the ones that haven't killed themselves yet or something.
Starting point is 00:44:38 Because they targeted broken, poor girls generally, a lot of them Eastern European, a lot of them. Uh, just, just bad parents, you know, troubled homes. And, um, he was a total predator and, and you know what, let's say, I always say at best Trump, if I had his own admission, partied with this guy for 15 years by his own admission. Um, there's no way you party with Jeff Epstein for 15 years and don't know exactly what he's into. There's no way. Cause everybody mentions the, the young girls, everybody.
Starting point is 00:45:06 And so, um, uh, I think at best Trump, you know, um, he had no problem with hanging out with a serial, you know, pedophile or give it the name, whatever the file is when you like them, you know, 13 or 12, you know. Yeah, right, pederast or. Well, there's a term for those different age groups, but it's all illegal regardless of what Alan Dershowitz wants to change, you know. So and it's a who's who of America's royalty of political royalty and business. You know, I made a joke that they can't arrest anybody involved in the Epstein scandal because that would destroy the private equity business because there's so many private equity guys that were tied up into him.
Starting point is 00:45:50 I mean, look at Apollo. When Patel and Bongino – Bongino really looked like he believed that he would spill his guts. Then all of a sudden they look like POWs blinking SOSs with their eyes. It has to be something big, Dave. It has to be something really big. It has to be huge. And I keep going back to Cindy McCain, who was married to one of the most powerful people on Earth. She said, we all knew.
Starting point is 00:46:16 We all knew what he was doing. But this is an exact quote. There was no one. She said, we all knew what he was doing, but there was no one who would go after him. For some reason, they were afraid of him. They were afraid of him. And she was in a position where she was supposed to be going after him. Well, and she's running a foundation that supposedly fights human trafficking.
Starting point is 00:46:36 And she said that. She said, yeah, we knew we knew what he was doing. And no one has ever questioned her about this. No, no one in public. And she blocked me. But what was where's our press? Our press is like anything now. It's just horrible. You know, and no one's asked her about that. And no one's no one's tried to. No one's asked. Hey, Alex, who told you, you know, or what? You know, what did you mean when you say he belongs to intelligence? And now, oh, guess who's. OK, you know, Greg Kelly. I think he's on Newsmax. I don't watch Newsmax. I don't know Greg Kelly, but I saw a post of his where he he says that, you know, turns out that you could be innocent, you know, and he works for Newsmax.
Starting point is 00:47:12 Guess who just got on the board like within the past month on Newsmax is on their board. Alex Acosta. So you can't make this stuff up. The coincidences in this in this whole story are beyond your imagined. I mean, beyond credible that there could be that many coincidences. Remember the the leaked footage of the CBS woman reporter who said we had him dead. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. We had it. They killed the story. Yeah. Yeah. Killed the story. And Vicki Ward said the same thing that they killed. They left out parts of her story she wanted to publish. Well, nice of her to sit on this for 15 years when she could have been helping future victims. I mean, that's the thing. You know, there's a lot of victims that, you know, the FBI has known about Epstein since the 90s. You know, they're either complicit. And he was an informant. He was an informant. These raids, though, a great case study is Diddy, right? So what was the Diddy story about, right?
Starting point is 00:48:07 So Diddy, I think the connection between Diddy and the rest of these guys is strong enough that you can say that he was probably the rapper slash Hollywood wing of the Pervo party, right? And so the question is, what was that about? Well, I think what it was about is there was a the first shot across the bow was a was a civil case against Diddy. And I think the deep state guys said, holy shit, we got to keep that shit from getting out during discovery. And so then they charged Diddy, scooped up all the tape, scooped up all the data, scooped up everything, made a whole hell of a lot of noise and then accused him of essentially nothing. right they could have put him away for 20 years based on what he did to justin bieber alone right yeah justin bieber well bryant nick bryant says that that case was rigged from the beginning with the prosecutor being the same as uh as the jelaine trial which you know which was comey's
Starting point is 00:49:05 which was comey's daughter right right and she uh yeah it's also blatant too like it's time like and it doesn't seem like that's the thing particularly with trump and epstein like they had everybody go out the binders holding them up like look we're doing something and then that was clownish but even worse was when he came out and said it's a hoax there's some idiots that are buying my former supporters that are are stupidly buying this democratic hoax i mean that was a whole step further than just the binders because i figured they would do that type of shit to me I think the low point, the low point of the whole thing was, and I think this is because she's a moron, but when Bondi was asked about the tapes and she said, it's just child pornography, you're not going to get them. Who's in it?
Starting point is 00:49:59 Bondi said that. I know, I know, I know. But I mean, is it just by themselves or there's clearly there's. So blur out the kids and let's see the heads of the adults. Well, don't even – I don't even expect that. Do an investigation. I mean do an actual investigation. Hand the tapes over to Schellenberger and Taibbi and say you don't get to publish the pictures.
Starting point is 00:50:23 But you can write about it, right? Well, why don't you start pulling in these – actually, there's tons of depositions about who did what to who. So why don't you start pulling in some of these private equity hedge fund guys or Donald Trump or Bill Clinton, and you put them in a room and you shine a light on them and you say, you know, we have this evidence and this evidence and this evidence. And I guarantee you, as Nick Bryant has pointed out, too, some of these people are going to turn and rat. And they've never done that. They do that in every case in the history of the FBI, but they don't do it here. They don't want to know the truth. I think they know what's going on, which is it's I believe it's an intelligence operation that involved both the CIA and the Mossad.
Starting point is 00:51:06 I mean, I don't think that's outrageous now. I mean, I joke that I love to see stuff that I was posting six years ago suddenly mainstreamed on Twitter, you know, about this case. But this case is like slapping you in the face and no one with any power, subpoena power, legal power cares. and and so the question i like to ask is when was the last time someone who was either wealthy or powerful went to prison for anything for anything right ken ken lay was sentenced to prison and was going to go he was bush's biggest donor great very close with george w bush and i have you know i'm a big critic of george w bush but kenley was going to come but he had become worthless though well Well, he he he died awaiting before he went to prison.
Starting point is 00:51:51 He the whole system collapsed. And so he became expendable. Well, that's true. But I'm saying this was a prominent guy after that. Nobody went. I think Fastow probably had a Cayman Islands account. They said, look, you're going to do time. Here's an account.
Starting point is 00:52:07 When you get out, you're going to have money. Right. But my my point is, no one has gone. No one prominent has gone to prison since. um for anything for because and holder explicitly stated and i've posted this video too that his too big to jail policy for banks and and bankers and what look at how many the system look at the big banks in this country how many how many how much in fines have they paid over the last 10 20 years i mean you're talking tens of billions of dollars of fines for for criminals i mean jp
Starting point is 00:52:36 morgan has pled guilty as a firm to five i believe five felony uh accounts so but who commits those crimes it's the brick and mortar it's the shareholders that's never an executive of jp morgan yeah and so yeah there's absolutely a two-tiered system of justice in this country that's completely obvious to anybody except apparently the attorney general well and the president one of those fines was for the epstein connection with the virgin islands right yeah there was an investor oh yeah and they paid huge fines why if it's a hoax why are they paying huge fines why did liam black pay a huge fine if it's a hoax there's there's such a good financial advisor yeah there's a um this no that's on top of what he paid up and he paid he paid a fine to
Starting point is 00:53:20 the virgin islands to shut up to have him shut up the virgin islands had a prosecutor who was going after these guys like hard with subpoenas and everything she subpoenaed elon musk she subpoenaed all sorts of people with connection to epstein and she got fired like uh at some you know before the investigation could get any further. She got off easy. Yeah, they didn't kill her. But the people who run the Virgin Islands were tied very close to Epstein, and he was funding some of their things. In fact, I think he funded their kids' private school tuition or something, which is another thing I've posted on. Epstein was financing charter schools in New York with Mike Bloomberg. He was financing Head Start programs in the Virgin
Starting point is 00:54:01 islands i mean he's financing everything he's donating to the uh friends of the idf um he had a list his charity you know there's an old quote um from robert fitrakis that uh you know if you're gonna if you're involved in bad things get get involved in philanthropy because then people will forgive you so i think a lot of these people that glommed onto epstein were just looking for money and and i think uh but i do think that anyone that spent any amount of time with them i'm you know Not someone who's just photobombed at a party, but, you know, met with him and went to his house and traveled. They absolutely 100 percent knew what he was into. Now, whether they participate or not, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:54:39 Probably most did not. But they certainly knew about it and they didn't care. Well, and that just shows you that the Caligula class that runs this country. Well, and it seems like right now they're doing the best they can to try to sweep it under the rug. I do think, thank God for individuals like yourselves and others sort of making sure that it doesn't get swept under the rug. But it looks like they're trying to transition to and just force the new tech, the new elite on us. And to your point earlier about KFOB, Dave, like everybody's like X is the free speech platform of the Internet. Thank God Elon bought it.
Starting point is 00:55:13 But I think that's sort of just a whole like carrot and stick where you can speak free for a few years. But if you look at all the contracts they're giving Palantir, SpaceX, like they're setting up the digital surveillance state as we speak. And they're sort of saying, look, you have free speech right now. Mike Ferris did a podcast with a guy named Aaron Day. And he talked about the digital authoritarianism that's coming in. And what was interesting about it was that he talked about the little things that I hadn't even thought of. Like he said, you know, so you can't buy, you know, sugary soft drinks with food stamps. And everyone cheers about that.
Starting point is 00:55:55 And then you go, well, but those are central bank digital currencies. Yeah. Right. That's programmable money. They're doing it right there. And he went from example to example. And by the end, I'm going, holy shit, we are losing. We are losing.
Starting point is 00:56:11 You go to the border. Everybody's like pumped about immigration stuff, but they're going to be like you need a digital ID because we need to secure the border. And so if you don't get it – Eight states have digital IDs now. Yeah. Eight states. What they really want to do ultimately is ban cash because then they can monitor and control everything you do. That's their goal.
Starting point is 00:56:31 Cash is freedom. Cash is freedom. Yeah, absolutely. We'll just stay off Bitcoin, but cash is freedom. We'll stay old school here. not to big i mean bitcoin is digital cash but the big crypto like they're making like we're going to be the crypto capital of the world they had their 180 day crypto report bill hines david sacks put it out and buried on like page 112 or something like that just like in a small section
Starting point is 00:56:55 was we recommend you extend the patriot act and include a sort of six condition particularly for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that in like the wording the way it was worded would make it illegal for individuals to hold bitcoin in their own wallet so is there any doubt in the in the crypto community the the what i'll call the lower tier crypto community not the david sacks crypto community is there any doubt that that they're they're attempting to assimilate they're not just so so i always thought the bad news was that when when it goes mainstream mainstream's going to then totally swallow it like the board is there any doubt that that is what they would like to do no they're trying they're attempting to do it right now and particularly with stable coins
Starting point is 00:57:47 like that is the stable coin story is awful the aaron talked about that too i mean it's really a good podcast it's worth watching yeah but the stable coins are the whole like oh we're going to create these efficiencies with cross-border payments and it's going to drive demand for the treasuries cause them to buy two trillion dollars worth of treasuries to contribute to the ponzi scheme yeah and they're acting like it's a bitcoin like they operate like bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion but they're all centrally issued and anybody like they can easily turn into cbdc's like then go to usdc then go to circle then go to tether and say all right we don't like this person receiving your stable coin don't allow it to happen and they could
Starting point is 00:58:28 easily do that they can do it now yeah they are doing it now the debanking problem is huge yeah and they're larping that's the thing like going back to k-fob hegelian dialectic they're like larping like we're gonna we're gonna prevent choke point 2.0 but choke point 3.0 is already happening there's two cases um in our industry in the last two weeks samurai wallet which is which was a wallet that allowed you to transact privately in Bitcoin. They had to plead guilty because they didn't want to go to jail for 60 years to money service conspiracy to be a money transmitter without a license. And then Tornado Cash, similarly this week, same thing. They actually got prosecuted for one of those charges.
Starting point is 00:59:18 And so publicly they're saying we're going to be the crypto capital. We're going to lean into this freedom tech. But the DOJ and the SDNY— He's not on a phone call with a—he's not a foreign intelligence officer. He's a foreign strategist. And I think he's a good guy. And I think the reason he talks to me is because he doesn't have to look over his shoulder when he's talking to me, right? Everyone else in his world is—they're all looking both ways, right, trying to figure out who's an ally and who's not.
Starting point is 00:59:47 And so we have conversations I think he can't have with his friends. in the middle of the conversation he says do you use signal and I said I can and he says let's go to signal and we get on signal and he says someone was listening to us and he says he gets this indicator
Starting point is 01:00:04 and he didn't go into the details that tells him that someone had sort of fairly directly tapped into the phone call I'm going to well I personally don't think signals encrypted either for that matter I don't believe any of them are
Starting point is 01:00:19 at this point well you're carrying around in your pocket all day the biggest surveillance device known to man oh my god yes oh my god and it listens to you when the phone is off you can power the phone down and it's listening to you yeah i have a faraday bag but i i never use it but but they already know they already know about me and you dave so we're yeah so maybe i'll tell you where they had to put a faraday cage they had to put it in any bathroom that has only one stall they should make it a faraday cage so some guy can't sit there oh is this a problem for you dave it's a problem when i'm on the outside of the door yeah yeah you have a white stance yeah yeah i know exactly exactly i i don't i think i think
Starting point is 01:01:04 they really should prevent people from doing their emails well you know nick nick bryant nick bryant speaking of uh larry craig um he brought it up in one of his recent podcasts He says, look, Larry Craig was a was a senator for many years, very conservative, quote unquote, senator who was was picking up guys in public restrooms. He goes, how hard would it be to compromise that guy? Like he goes, a little kid with a camera, you know, cell phone could do it. And so I think it's even worse than that. I was so I'm in a Zoom group and it's got some spectacular people and some amazing people go by. So we've had parliamentarians from different countries in Europe and stuff like that, including a guy named Bridgen, for example, who said he took all sorts of dirt on all sorts of trafficking to MI5, and they did not care, just did not care.
Starting point is 01:01:51 And Jerome Corsi's on it, who has risen in my—but one day, we had a couple of retired generals, and they mentioned a guy named Janda, who I had paid some attention to. And I stopped, and I said, is he a good guy? And they go, oh, totally a good guy. Janda one day was – he was the undersecretary of something to do with health. He was an orthopedic surgeon of considerable repute, and he was in D.C. on his first week of the job. And he's sitting with a grizzle veteran. The guy says to him, never go to a private party ever. And he said, even if it's the vice president's house.
Starting point is 01:02:29 He was back in the Bush administration. And Janda says, why? And the guy says, because you'll wake up in the morning in a fog with a Polaroid clipped to your shirt with you and a five-year-old. Yeah. That was in The Godfather, kind of like that. They don't need to compromise you morally. They literally just need to slip a drug in your drink. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:02:50 Yeah. Yep. So are we just destined to be beholden to the whims of these psychopaths? I think so. That's my conclusion. Yeah, I do. Yeah. The problem I have is that the Internet is, I used to say, is democracy's greatest hope and worst enemy.
Starting point is 01:03:11 And I realize that it's too powerful to the point where whoever does control it now has psychopathic potential. So I'm not sure that anyone is qualified to be able to control it. And we know the guys who are controlling it are psychopaths. Well, I think people were hoping that Trump was that in 2015 when he comes in and says, I'm going to – he's talking about the stupid wars. He's bashing George W. Bush. He's talking about the banksters that didn't go to – he's railing against Goldman Sachs. And people are like, wow, I've never heard this before. Here's a billionaire.
Starting point is 01:03:50 So you're thinking, well, if anybody can do it, it's his self – he's got tons of money and he clearly doesn't care whether people like him or not. And well, I think he does. But I mean, he was saying things that were like getting people riled up. And a lot of people voted for him because they thought he was going to change the status quo. And then, of course, he immediately puts Goldman Sachs in charge of his administration in 2016. You know, Mnuchin and Cohn and a whole bunch of other swamp creatures, Bill Barr being the worst of all. And Pompeo, good God. You know, I mean, and then the second time, I don't know what people were thinking. I think Josh Bolton, Bolton, Bolton, Swamp Thing. um but i don't know what people think and i i think that the second time that kamala and biden
Starting point is 01:04:29 were just so awful their administration was was really awful i thought and that people you know trump trump who by this time even the maga people should have known he's a fraud but you know as opposed to kamala so like i said it's like uh picking um you know ebola versus rabies you know you know ebola is survivable maybe you know but rabies isn't so they went with ebola and um maybe we'll survive it maybe we won't i mean but um it's it's the the blatant wake this is something uh it's important to think about i think dave talking about the um it must be something really big for him to do this complete about face because remember they first went from it's on our desk we're dealing with it promises made promises kept to okay here's some lame binders to a bunch of
Starting point is 01:05:15 sycophants and let them wave them around and stuff and that's what i thought they would continue you doing just a half ass sort of oh look over here look over here but how did how did they misjudge that one so badly but that's because whatever it is whatever it is is so big that they're going to risk the 2026 midterms that and it has to be related i think to something that's very obvious now how did they think that the binders was going to somehow work i think they were completely because because 95 percent 98 percent of people don't know anything about it they they underestimated people's interest in in this and knowledge of it and i think it's because people still care about their kids democrats and republicans right and so and i think if you look
Starting point is 01:05:57 there was a poll and of course i don't i saw it on twitter the other day like 90 percent of republicans and or 80 percent something of democrats and republicans want their things released so they are for him to then come out and say it's a hoax and you're an idiot if you believe it that was spitting in the face of everybody with a brain and to actually insult his former followers and he also got other people in his administration to do it too so it wasn't just trump being a long you know loose cannon it was his he got the rest of the people uh kash patel and bongino and say well there's nothing there oh yeah absolutely was suicidal we know for sure bullshit they they and they doctored the video yes they get it's a joke it's they're insulting
Starting point is 01:06:35 our intelligence and the video wasn't supposed to exist either right the video that didn't exist right it's it's it's there it's comical it's clown clownish good why didn't bongino resign exactly why bongino bongino had nothing to gain by doing that so he has destroyed himself in my maybe he went to a private party i don't know you know well that's the problem that's the question I don't know. It's got to be something huge that like dramatically affects, I think, foreign policy or or intelligence agencies. In other words, if we find out that the CIA was running this op with underage people, that would probably be people would be in uproar. You know, if we found out this was another country doing that, if we're talking like big thing, my millennial brain, something with 9-11 that they really don't want to get out there. that's even out there
Starting point is 01:07:34 they don't want it to be clear I think well yeah I mean we're still withholding some JFK files after 60 something years yeah it's bad it's bad and I think it would cause it would cause even the couch potatoes to kind of get up and revolt
Starting point is 01:07:51 and it's something so big like that that they have to you know to just say it's a hoax it's like it's just an insult to to everybody with you know you know what's really disconcerting and this uh really not encouraging is like the only thing the only solution to this we need to get back to like the 2010s era wiki leaks like it's not going to happen from within like and i i wouldn't throw it on julian assange she was essentially tortured for the better part of 15 years because of what
Starting point is 01:08:21 he did but horrific we need like that's like we need people to we need seth riches we need snowden's we need people to leak this stuff and some journalistic entity with integrity to actually be able to receive it and report on it yeah but it still doesn't get anywhere i mean i i don't think you can name a single narrative that you actually believe as told you name a narrative. And Marty, here's the game show. You name a narrative and Rudy and I have to somehow collectively find what's wrong with the narrative. Right. You can. I just went through the USS Liberty story. I had been putting it off and thinking I didn't want to go there. And and it's not just some narrative about talking about it. They interview the guys who are there. They
Starting point is 01:09:17 interviewed the victims it is undeniable that the liberty was was attacked by the israelis knowingly undeniable right and i had a guy yelling at me the other day saying no it's a for bringing it up uh it's not a hoax no it's not a hoax no it's not but the but people they don't want to know they don't want to know well the one we were talking about before we have record i mean the oklahoma city bombing i think that's another one yeah that's yeah that one's been lurking out there or the vegas shooting i know dave and i've gone down that that vegas shooting doesn't nothing holds together with the vegas shooting right now you can't even fake a story right and the plausible story the real story behind that is fascinating it makes a lot of sense makes way more sense than
Starting point is 01:10:02 the official so the cullen story i think is he he ignores some of the data yeah john has a tendency to focus on something and then you say well what about this part he says that doesn't matter and i I go, but a self-coherent picture has to handle the facts. Now, you don't throw out a good model just because you can't make a fact fit at that moment. But you got to say, yeah, but there's that. Why, why, why was this going on at ground level? That's a key point. For the audience who doesn't know, Cullen's thesis is essentially there was like a Saudi coup in Vegas.
Starting point is 01:10:36 To get Mohammed bin Salman. Yes. It was a hit. Yeah, yeah. And Dave, what is the piece of data that you think Cullen's missing that? He focuses on the helicopters behind the Mandalay shooting down into the crowd to flush Mohammed bin Salman out to try to hit him. The helicopters came from a U.S. airbase where they were training 200 miles away and the transponders were being turned off. And he makes a very good case.
Starting point is 01:10:59 The problem is there's tons of footage at ground level things happening. And it just it's not just the helicopters. Yeah. And there's tons of it, ridiculous amounts. And I had figured out that the story was flawed before the sun rose the night of it because I was kind of glued. The official story. Holy shit. The official story.
Starting point is 01:11:22 I knew before the sun rose that there was something wrong with the story. Yeah. And it's the biggest shooting since the Civil War, for Christ's sake. Yeah. And the anti-gun lobby doesn't mention it because it's toxic. Yeah. Yeah. Well, the other one a few weeks ago, the guy went into BlackRock and killed that executive.
Starting point is 01:11:41 that one was awesome. Or Ben Joanie. Yeah. Ben Joanie. I don't think any of these shootings are legit. Well, look at Crooks. That's all memorable. Yeah. You know, and the other guy, Ruth, who had ties to Ukraine and everything else.
Starting point is 01:11:57 Ruth was farcically bizarre. At least Crooks, you could say, okay, classic MK ultra, kid got brainwashed. They, you know, as I think Ben Joanie looks to me. But Ruth With Ruth, it almost looks like it's a caricature of a of a of a conspiracy.
Starting point is 01:12:15 I mean, it just didn't hold together. Yeah, it was almost there to just make us all feel stupid watching it or something. Right. But I don't think I think you could probably go back to the Columbine shootings and find that those kids were drug addled by who the hell knows. Well, their hard drives keep disappearing there, even eliminating, you know, outside involvement in some of these shootings. I always think they should drug test anybody involved in a mass shooting and see what sort of antipsychotic drugs they're on or what drugs they're on, what prescriptions they're on. And also, by the way, tell us something about what led up to it. We get nothing. Yeah. We get nothing.
Starting point is 01:12:54 Well, I think you actually – didn't you cover that in one of your annual letters? Which one? It had to be a few years ago now at this point. No, no. Which of the shootings? We've talked about it. Well, just like the SSRI stats of people that actually commit these shootings. Oh, they're all drug-addled teenagers. They're all drug-addled teenagers. They're classic MKUltra victims, right? They've got all the hallmarks of that kind of brainwashing. I actually believe the Kamala Harris being a Manchurian candidate theory. I think that holds together pretty well, actually. I've dug a lot into that. I think Harris was brainwashed.
Starting point is 01:13:36 what leads you to believe that um i was i was watching her the first real hint was when she her teleprompter went off and she acted like a robot that had short-circuited she just couldn't function and then one day um and then i i started following kenneth kenneth owens and kenneth started tracking the genealogy of her aunts and uncles and it wasn't holding up at all so that guy wasn't his her uncle that guy wasn't her aunt that woman wasn't her aunt you find out that her mother you know you hear this oh she worked two jobs blah blah blah blah she's a professor right she wasn't working two jobs she's a professor she wasn't a sweetheart she was a tyrant and where did she work she worked at mcgill that's where all the goddamn
Starting point is 01:14:24 mk alter crap stems from and then i'm on a podcast with jim consular and he mentioned this woman named Elizabeth Nixon. Who's Elizabeth Nixon? Spelled N-I-C-K-S-O-N. And she's a Time Magazine European head, right? Big, big, big time journalist person. And she had been the Life Magazine American, North American head, right? And she discovers her mother had been victimized by MK Ultra. She found out that her mother was all fucked up for that. And so she took three years off from her job and studied mk ultra and she's so so counselor's telling me this story on a podcast and and then all of a sudden in the middle of the podcast she starts talking about kamala harris she says harris has all the traits all the traits she's got all these different personalities that
Starting point is 01:15:16 kind of pop up and in the way she phrased it she said harris can't access her intellect and if you look at harris's rise to power it kind of goes through that sort of street walking bimbo you know epstein girl montel williams that's right right through the ditty kind of flavored crowd up through the the governor up through and next you know she's running for president so i'm gonna write on this one well i think she's supposed to run for governor next california election i think she pulled out i think she pulled out i think the other day yeah good although anybody I thought he would be better than Gavin Newsom. Gavin Newsom, yeah.
Starting point is 01:15:52 By the way, Peter Schweitzer says he's the most Chinese-owned politician in the country. Oh, I don't doubt it. He's horrific. He's just run California to the ground. He makes Jerry Brown look like George Washington. You know, he's just ridiculous. He really does. Ridiculous.
Starting point is 01:16:07 I used to compare him to Trudeau, you know, another pretty boy. Getty, basically. Getty family money and all that. Castro. It's the Gettys and the Browns and the Pelosi. the families have run the state forever right there's like three families that have run the whole state
Starting point is 01:16:24 for a whole century Pelosi, Getty, Brown Gambino well they're all tied in it's basically organized crime politics is organized crime now have you ever fallen down the Getty Museum rabbit hole no
Starting point is 01:16:39 the tunnels I have stumbled upon it the tunnel story right by the way that's another one case all right yeah well i've been down that rabbit hole bigly yeah i had long conversations with nick bryant and and i i have to be careful because people tell me stuff off record i got to remember which is off and which which is you know not off but um he says he's got information
Starting point is 01:17:05 on stuff that he can't make the case that's airtight and he's really fanatical about that if he doesn't have the facts he doesn't say it and um and he mentioned a few names of people that he thinks are dead to right pervs and and some of them would really shock the shit out of people and um and uh and and so oh so we're you you mentioned tucker i think before we were filming um uh by the way tucker just slipped in a shroud of turin expert ahead of me now so i i think my my interview got deep-sixed my fear is that it's just because i was boring as shit um and um maybe even because he wanted me to hammer universities and i didn't hammer him as much as he wanted um and uh but in any event it's it seems to be uh i seem to be getting preempted by
Starting point is 01:17:56 everybody but but we spoke for an hour and a half before the interview and we spoke for about an hour and a half after we had a great conversation but i somehow we hit satanism and without spilling my guts he makes me look like a piker he makes me look like a piker well that's what i mean i sort of trend that way like i think we're in a spiritual battle here okay uh yeah you get to the good and evil and you go look i'm not a religious guy but when you start talking about evil you got I kind of hope there's a good out there. Right. Yeah. And so I have never wanted to be religious, but I have increasingly been supportive of those who have chosen that path. It's it's the same. I told someone the other day, it's the same battles.
Starting point is 01:18:44 Even people were fighting a thousand and two thousand years ago. You know, that's right. It's the same. Same. It's the same thing. Just manifests a little bit differently. Nothing new under the sun, really, other than, I guess, video recording now. but uh yeah it's bad but the bad stuff here's the thing that's that's and then i talked about nick about this a lot and other people the things people do to the kids are are simply not imaginable right marty you've been down this rabbit hole rudy you've been down this rabbit hole yeah i try and avoid it but yeah after you've read a lot about it you start acclimating to the harsh reality that it is happening yeah and you don't know the breadth of it right you get
Starting point is 01:19:26 the sense that it's potentially broadly based um but you're sitting there going why would parents uh ship their kids into a satanic cult biology tells me you know evolutionary biology says says that would not be the way to propagate your genes let's start with that and and but but the evidence is there that they do it there's a there's a great relevant quote uh only the small secrets need to be protected the large ones are kept secret by public incredulity in other words right people i can't jay what you're saying it can't be true i don't want to believe it it can't be true so that's they just ends there it ends there they don't want that's what i say people people don't want to know they don't want to know because it's very discouraging and as someone
Starting point is 01:20:14 who's learned a number of things that i'd rather not know it's very discouraging and um that's why i try i always try to say i'm you know hopeful which i am and positive but um you know once you stare into the abyss too much you start staring back at you right right yeah and uh and but but then you look at someone like stalin or mao and you go and by the way we supported stalin knowing that he was slaughtering millions and millions of people. And we hid that. Durante, the famous journalist, wrote puff pieces about Stalin while he was slaughtering millions. And we left 20,000 U.S. soldiers in gulags at the end of World War II.
Starting point is 01:20:59 We never got back. We never got them back. Yeah, absolutely. And that's not, you know, it's shown that the government will, does not work in the interest of Americans in many cases. Absolutely. Orwell was a socialist, but he fought against that. You could not criticize among socialist circles, you know, in the 30s and 40s. You could not criticize Stalin, no matter what he did, because he was fighting Hitler.
Starting point is 01:21:23 And that was sort of like the opposite of, you know, when you couldn't say anything nice about Russia because we've decided they are the great Satan, you know. some if you yeah so it's now flipped right so now putin's the evil evil demon yeah he's the evil guy yeah he looks he looks he looks as i said to tucker i said i'm the first right of center um libertarian commie dog oh i've been called everything yeah yeah yeah right but but but putin looks like the most grounded leader in the world and you go but he's he's a beast right he kills people i go yeah well try to run russia without being that tough well all of our presidents they you know they hug and kiss uh the saudi rulers i mean they're butchers come on who are we kidding total butchers so you know at least be consistent you know i mean uh uh is putin a bad
Starting point is 01:22:12 guy yeah but but so frankly so i think our most u.s presidents i mean it's killed five million people since 9-11 yeah mostly yeah probably about 99.9 percent of them that had absolutely nothing to do with it maybe even more i mean it's ridiculous yeah and the same people that were in charge of the same people that were promoting that are still promoting our neocon foreign policy now it's it's it's criminal and our and our foreign policy is not is i mean look at what's going on now half our congress is over in israel right and they went there and they went there to avoid voting on transparency on uh epstein it's it's insane it's and the other half is going next week i think the republicans are there this week the democrats are there next week
Starting point is 01:22:52 Yeah. And whenever someone comes at me and goes, you know, the Republicans suck or the Democrats suck. I'm like, yeah. And the Republicans do, too. I say the opposite. It's like both the people that are still stuck in the in the Dems are good or Republicans are good and the other party is bad. You are you are in a dead end. We got to get rid of both parties. I'm going to vote. I haven't vote. I'm going to vote for, you know, I used to vote for Ron Paul every time, but he's going to be 90, I think, this year. vote for anybody vote for the libertarian vote for the peace and freedom vote for the you know you know uh revolutionary black socialist party anything except the democrat or republican i'm telling you and people say oh no well then you know you have to make a choice between one or two no i made a choice i'm not gonna vote for either one of them or don't vote at all frankly is a guy who who um who voted for trump the first time with his hand shaking as he pulled the lever yeah um but thinking um well i don't blame you because i'm glad hillary lost yeah hillary was to me demonic right right i agree and she she's probably way worse than i thought she was at the
Starting point is 01:23:58 time since i've dug into the whole pizza gate stuff um and and and then we get to 2020 and i went back and looked at my twitter feed just to double check and i was tweeting in 19 about biden not being cognitively all there and this was not this was not a metaphorical he's demented you know i could say rudy's demented that doesn't mean he's demented these are statements that he was losing his marbles right right right now i was trying to be subtle and um and and so it's clear that we knew he was losing his marbles before 2020 and and yet they put him up right they put him up. They could have had anyone else, but they put him up. There's a picture of him on stage with his wife. His wife's at the podium. He's standing to her side and she has her arm out and he leans
Starting point is 01:24:47 over and starts sucking on her fingers at a public event. That was 2019. And so I was posting that 2019 going, oh, in fact, I think in 2020, I said that the leading cause of the way COVID has spread is from sucking on Joe Biden's fingers. So, you know, it was such a joke. And that was six years ago and you know everybody knew he was losing it and i have to say with some of trump's statements lately i wonder if he's losing it too yeah well he's old enough now where it's a legitimate old age problem right right so so now so i voted for trump the second time yeah and and it it's not voted for ebola well yes and no um we all it's interesting psychologists have studied this if you take left-leaning and right-leaning people, they design these tests to see if you can walk
Starting point is 01:25:36 around in the shoes of the other team. So can you steel man an argument? And it turns out the left can, the right can. So if you said to me, name 10 reasons why people hate Trump, I could fire them off, right? I wouldn't even have to think. If you ask a left-winger, name 10 reasons why people like Trump. They can't do it. They can't come close. They can't. It's beyond their imagination. So many of us voted for Trump for several reasons. One is he had four years to ponder. Right. And I think that four years had a potential, huge, had the potential for being a huge benefit. And then the other was, is if not Trump, then no one. So we had this was kind of like it's fourth and 15 there's 10 seconds on the clock you're gonna send your quarterback
Starting point is 01:26:27 you know deep in the pocket and he's gonna hurl that fucking ball and that's that's the that's the only play we had right and so the great dismay now i still can't rule out the possibility that we're getting our ass kayfabed off and that that he actually is doing things like guys like kennedy what do you see that vaccine story today no kennedy says they're trying to develop a universal vaccine for everything i go what are you talking about what are you talking there's no such thing as a vaccine for everything unless you want to call it vitamin c or something right um and that's and and so then the question is mike ben said something about this again now i gotta i'm going down memory lane i have had to
Starting point is 01:27:14 reread my annual reviews because bob moriarty's binding them and so i've had to proof them something has changed in 10 years um i the ones i wrote 10 years ago um you could see in the writing that i felt that when you got information that you had it that you got it and now you get the information says oh by the way you know trump did x or so and so did y and you go how the fuck do i know there's there's no there's no confidence left in my writing And and I think what happened was I think they couldn't suppress the signal, the signal being, you know, we're learning about pedophilia, we're learning about trafficking. So they have to raise the noise. And Mike Ben said around 2013, they realized they were losing the narrative on the Internet.
Starting point is 01:28:05 Right. The deep state guys were saying, look, we've got to get control of this because we're going to have revolutions. The elites are going to lose. and uh and so i think they they really put the propaganda machine into full gear and said how do we just bury people and i think it's to keep guys like me just totally preoccupied chasing false bogeys and and and and throwing up my hands and saying you know elon looks like he's going to save us then he's going to hurt us and then it just you're just being whipsawed yeah and and that's where i don't know how to i don't know how to process the information anymore Well, I feel like in the digital age, we're getting to the point where, to your point, like the signal-to-noise ratio, that was predicted like in the 90s.
Starting point is 01:28:49 In the information age, there's going to be a ton of information. Bannon admits it. There's a video I posted. He comes out and says it. We're going to throw four or five things at them, and they're all going to go nuts because they can only focus on one thing, and then we're going to get this other thing done. Yeah. I posted that too. Remember the drones in Jersey?
Starting point is 01:29:07 Yeah, yeah, yeah. The drones in Jersey, yeah. Perfect example. We knew no one in their right mind thought that the drones in Jersey were anything but ours, right? I don't know. I don't know. A lot of Normies thought they were UFOs. Well, I don't – yeah, or Chinese is what another theory that they were probing.
Starting point is 01:29:26 If we let Chinese drones fly over New Jersey, we really are a totally lost cause. That would just – that would just us fucking around. OK. It's like the weather balloon flying across the entire country, and then we shoot it down over the Atlantic, right? We knew what that weather balloon was. They didn't tell us what it was, but there's no way they didn't know what it was. And so they're fucking with us.
Starting point is 01:29:52 I don't believe the alien stories at all, at all. No, no. Because my understanding of the laws of physics is that if there is organisms out there that have solved the problem of crossing the great expanse of the universe, they don't give a shit about us right they're not landing not landing in a cornfield what if they're not aliens
Starting point is 01:30:13 elaborate what if it's something that's I mean Gary Nolan they've been here forever it's part of something we don't know we don't know what it is I think absolutely there are UAPs out there that
Starting point is 01:30:30 excluding the hoaxes and excluding the false sightings of venus and excluding military psyops and military programs there are things going on that i think the government knows about them has known about them for a long time and i think that we don't know their motives and they don't and we can't stop them and we can't control them and so they're trying to build the narrative around that fact so did they come here or did they were they here the whole time i don't think and my personal theories is not a it's not they're not coming from some star system five thousand light years
Starting point is 01:31:07 away they're they're here there's some sort of i mean you get sort of into the uh john keel sort of the spiritual thing too what is it or it could be uh uh parallel you know some sort of weird physics things i mean i was listening to a podcast where they were talking about the way that these things move that they think are craft and they always keep saying craft and i'm like what if they're not craft but anyway uh zero point energy there's something about uh if they can if they can do something well you know more than i do about all this stuff dave the science of it but it's like there's they have an understanding of of physics that we have not achieved yet we and uh that theoretically i've listened to guys oh god there's a great podcast i'll send you dave
Starting point is 01:31:46 where it's all the a-list you know physicists and stuff talking about this stuff and the way they put it is we understand theoretically how this could work how these things could go from zero to you know gazillion miles an hour instantly and then stop without crushing everyone's side They understand how it could work, but we don't have the engineering to do it yet. I'll send you the podcast. It was much better. I highly recommend it. It's a bunch of guys like you.
Starting point is 01:32:11 Obviously smarter. You cannot deny that there are things that are seen that we don't know what they are. It could be a natural phenomenon. It could be a geomagnetic thing. God knows. But, I mean, they're not all secret American programs. All a UAP means is unidentified aerial phenomenon to begin with. So to say there's no such thing, you know, there is.
Starting point is 01:32:39 I tend to think it's something that's from the Earth. And I don't know if it's a – I don't know what it is. But I don't think it's coming from a starship. And I think my personal view is that it's something that's been with us since the dawn of time. And so is Gary Nolan, who's not a religious person. You know, he's a biochemist or whatever. There's some really smart scientists that are on this thing. Send me something good.
Starting point is 01:33:06 I will. Because the other thing I could imagine is that they are projections. So you can make a projection move at any speed you want. Yeah, yeah. I'm open to anything. I don't know what it is. I tend to think, you know, the guys that I've read over the years that are closest to my own views are guys like John Keel or Jacques Vallée, who also questions the extraterrestrial hypothesis, you know. So anyway, I have a whole high strangeness thread where I just throw different things out there on that.
Starting point is 01:33:36 Yeah, I'll send you a couple links that I think are from scientists like yourself that you can listen to, and especially the one I just heard, which I think is from November of last year, which is just amazing what they're talking about. So there are people studying this stuff, serious scientists on this, who don't believe it's, you know, nothing. So there you go. Do we know who they work for? Well, some of these guys are VC guys. You know, some of them are scientists. A lot of them are academics like yourself. I don't know.
Starting point is 01:34:07 I'll let you decide if you think they're – I'm reading Corsi's book on the Russia collusion story. Yeah. And the breadth of it, the number of people involved in it is just staggering, right? And so we have guys on payroll everywhere. And in this digital age, this is potentially the noise. This is the noise. The UAP or the Russian?
Starting point is 01:34:36 Yeah, anything they want, right? Whatever narrative you want. I like to ask the question, this is related to October 7th. I like to ask the question, can you name a government that doesn't lie profusely to its people or to the world? And the answer is no, you cannot. And so my next question is, do you know what happened on October 7th? And people sort of sit there and they realize they're kind of cornered. They go, well, we know hundreds of people died.
Starting point is 01:35:05 And they go, do you? Would you bet your life on it? I mean, the narrative around that has never made sense from the beginning, like the most highly secure border. Right. The six-hour lapse. Mike, Sam Faddis had good comments on that, yeah. But here's the other thing is you know for a fact, no matter what country, call it country A, and there's some event that happens, you know for a fact that the narrative coming out of that country is going to be optimized for that country's needs. Period. So, you know, they're lying. Because, you know, they're amplifying it up, they're ramping it up to get exactly what they want. Right. Pearl Harbor, WMDs, WMDs. Remember the main Gulf of Tonkin, USS Liberty. Right.
Starting point is 01:36:00 And so you can't say with any confidence whatsoever that you have any understanding of what happened on October 7th. For all we know, the hostages are not even real. They don't exist. For all you know, the hostages have been released. We're living in a safe house. You don't know anything. How do we operate in a world where we don't know anything? that's i mean i've been coming around this is the 10-year change for me it was 10 years ago
Starting point is 01:36:34 when i was writing about stuff it really felt like i i did when i got a fact it kind of it stayed right i could like throw it in the fact pile and it doesn't feel that way now it's like the uh the the journey to the great awakening is asymptotic like you're just always get very close but never never actually i just i just read an article by someone the other day that was talking about the catastrophic shape of the german economy and how it's been really a mess for three years the dax has gone parabolic i i can't my brain won't let me deal with that so we've got a catastrophic german economy and we've got a german german equity market that thinks that's euphoric yeah the uh and it's it's happening here too right oh totally totally and that's
Starting point is 01:37:32 the question is like all this like with this what our first conversation talked about like i think at the core of a lot of what we talk about is the economy and economics like is all this k-fob oh just to paper over or to distract from take a look at the nasdaq today just just pop it up and and look at it it looks like this every day it just goes up and then camps the ramp and camp the classic ramp and gap if it drops it does the drop and flop it just there's there's no price discovery there's no response there's no um and so so the question is how are they doing it and and it could be the mike green story of money just keeps flowing in and that will stop i'm i'm 100 confident and i think rudy agrees being 130 years in this game
Starting point is 01:38:24 um that that it simply will stop it's a guarantee it will stop what you don't know is when and you don't know what it's going to look like but but nothing goes on forever in that game and so at some point the money flows will reverse and what seems like a real good idea for almost a half a century is going to be a bad idea and what the people don't know about today recency bias is a bitch recency bias it's 40 plus years is incomprehensibly a bitch right when the berlin wall fell it was unimaginable because we had all grown up with the berlin wall being absolutely undeniably going to be there forever and then it wasn't my wife's destroying shit in the other room and so
Starting point is 01:39:19 and so I the markets are kayfabe they don't respond to anything right so I never trade anymore I'm just cause I don't know I'm waiting for some
Starting point is 01:39:39 volatility it just seems like we just go straight up so the only thing to do is just buy in It seems like they want to go into a melt-up scenario, right? Lowering rates, all this fiscal spending. Well, everyone's using the same language, red flag, right? Yeah. They say that any good idea eventually becomes a bad idea, right? Once it's well-known, it's no longer a good idea, it's no longer a good indicator, it's no longer anything.
Starting point is 01:40:03 Well, it's 93% or something of all stocks are owned by 10% of the people. And so it's just a continuation of this Cantillon effect, and they're trying to spike it even further, you know. And the wealth inequality has spiked since we went off gold in 71 dramatically, and I think it's related to the financialization of everything. And if you were to come from space, speaking of spacemen, and come down here and look at our way we operate, you would think that policy is designed to get the stock market up. I mean – or more broadly to enrich – to make the richest people in the world richer. I mean – But people don't – one of the things I've discovered is the average investor doesn't know the difference between price and valuation. Of course not.
Starting point is 01:40:53 And as a consequence, they don't realize is that when you are 200 percent over historical average valuation, you are looking at a one-third projected return rate off that price if you wish, right? The simplistic model. If things revert. Well, if they don't revert, if you're sitting there at a P.E. of 50, your price returned 2% on your cash flow. And the assumptions all say 6%. But numbers go up. I know. It doesn't matter.
Starting point is 01:41:24 I mean, I think it's just as propulsive as you do it from an intellectual basis, but that's just kind of the way it is, it seems. You do know it will stop, though. I do. And I don't know when, but I do. I do know this movie is going to end badly. It's just going on much longer than I would have expected in the past. Without a narrative. Without a narrative.
Starting point is 01:41:44 Right? So the roaring 20s, they were roaring. So it's forgivable. The dot-com bust, it felt like the world was changing profoundly. Even the real estate bubble of 07, everyone is getting to own a house and stuff. And so it just – so it's forgivable that people buy into the narrative. I know David Sachs. Yeah, I know.
Starting point is 01:42:07 But that's not a narrative. That's not a narrative. But, I mean, who do you think Trump surrounds himself with? People like that. Oh, I know. So he doesn't care that you or I are doing our trade. Well, we're doing better than most people. But half the country, I think, has been under depression since 2008 at least.
Starting point is 01:42:26 And nobody cares about them. You know, Mark Faber had a great line. He was telling some reporter, Bloomberg, I think. He goes, you know, you guys never have any normal people on your show. you just you know you don't you don't know you don't talk to anybody who has struggling with inflation or anything you know i constantly you know make jokes about that they they they talk you know hey uh you know hey uh scott wapner you know have you talked to what do you think about inflation you know it's oh it's fine everybody says it's fine you know and then
Starting point is 01:42:53 you got guys like muhammad al-aryan saying yeah we should have a four percent target that'd be great this is a billionaire this this really ticks me off is that these are people that uh, have more money than God. And, but they go out of it, they want more and they want more at the expense of some, you know, single mom is trying to survive, you know, and, um, and that ticks me off. It's just, it's, it's, it's bullying or something. And then of course, all of our policies are designed to enrich, you know, enrich people and, and, and impoverish poor people. I mean, the middle class gets at the worst because they're not rich enough or poor enough to get welfare you know of any major importance so it's it's i just i'm a spokesman for the middle class
Starting point is 01:43:32 which is where i came from yeah and i'm i'm what's the word vehement about it because uh these these guys that have you know ever since especially since 08 uh that have just you know the first to line up at the public trough to get bailed out you know privatizing profits and socializing losses i really believe that and i sound like some sort of ranting you know uh trotsky head or something but i and i didn't i didn't start this way but uh i i have eyes and i have ears and i've paid attention to this financial markets for the last 20 30 40 years and um the direction we've gone is just off the rails and uh and there's a reason why people voted for a game show host in in 2016 and um you know maybe the next guy that comes in and promises you know look at
Starting point is 01:44:17 the look at how insane they're going over um what's his name mandami or whatever in new york oh my god well it could go the other way too people are not happy with the status quo this brings up a good question like if they keep going like that's the big like you're gonna get polar like both ends of the spectrum that's i have a i posted 10 years ago why do i rail against the central banks i do it because they are driving people to extremism with their with their wealth inequality policies and it's only gotten infinitely worse you know since i posted that. You're right, Marty. It could go either way. You got Trump this time. Maybe you get, you know, you get a Mondami, I'm sorry, I don't know his name, Mondami the next time
Starting point is 01:44:57 at the presidential level. Now, people say, oh, America would never vote for that. And I hope not because that's not the way to go. Actually, what we should do is try capitalism. You know, there's no way that, you know, John Mack and Lloyd Blankfein should be billionaires in a capitalist society you know they were bailed out and as silicone bank bank depositors who should have known better were bailed out you know people like bill ackman and his and his crowd they know that everybody and their mother knows that there's a fdic limit of 250k or something they're keeping 10 or hundreds of millions of dollars there and you know what we did was we bailed them out there was a bailout that was a taxpayer bailout of these guys so um it's just i see it happens all the time
Starting point is 01:45:41 I know they're going to – look, they're trying to pull a private equity bill out right now by shoveling it into grandma's 401K. You know what they're also doing? There's another thing they're doing. They're setting up new private equity firms with new money, which is a Ponzi scheme, right? Yeah. And they're now moving the assets from the old ones, which are underneath Harvard's jurisdiction, into new ones, which are not. The continuation funds, yeah. So the continuation funds.
Starting point is 01:46:09 And so they're using them to liquidate the ones that are in the hands of people who are powerful enough to want to get out. Because they have 7 to 10-year escape clauses, some of them. It's manifesting in secondary funds too. They're becoming very popular right now. That's right. That's right. And just look at the Trump coin, which I think has a fully – I looked it up a minute ago – fully diluted value of all the coins of like $10 billion. I mean Trump is going to make more off that than he's probably made in his life.
Starting point is 01:46:37 You know, except it's a liquid. So I'm not sure. Fine, fine. But even if he makes a dollar off it, it's such a such a such a grubby grifting of the presidency. And then someone will go, what about Clinton? 100 percent. I posted about Clinton 10 years ago. You know, on his he made him and Hillary made about 160 million dollars giving speeches to Wall Street guys like Yellen does. You know, that's the thing. Get out of the D versus R nonsense. It's they're both bad. OK, maybe they're bad in different ways or, you know, the Democratic Party is, you know, more in favor of your abortion policies and the Republican Party is more in favor of your gun control. But they're all overall. That's just a game they play to get to play us off against each other. Do you got it? We need a new party. And I don't think it's going to be Elon Musk. No, he's not the same. Quit looking for political saviors, as Whitney Webb, who Marty has interviewed, said one time, by the way, you should have her back instead of us, too. She's great. I'm working on it. Yeah. And I supposedly set up an interview with Nick Bryant and a prominent guy. But I don't know. We'll see if that happens. But I tried to. I tried to as well. I tried to promote Nick. Yeah. What you said about Nick, I totally agree.
Starting point is 01:47:50 Nick is not going to he's not going to make a statement unless he really believes it to be true. And if you look if you look at what he said about about this case, it's pretty jarring. And I've posted some of it and I think it's Nick underscore Bryant on Twitter. Everybody should go there and like listen to his podcast and read his books. I have a whole thread on – that got started because of his book about the Franklin scandal years ago. Yeah, and he's the journalist in Manhattan, right? I don't know where he's located. Well, he's also ghostwritten some books.
Starting point is 01:48:18 He used to ghostwrite for people because he himself was not prominent. So he would – The Hollywood Madam one I think I've got now. He also wrote about Watergate being a takedown of Nixon. Not that he was brought down by it, but an intentional takedown of Nixon. He wrote on that. That's another rat hole. That is.
Starting point is 01:48:40 It's another – like I've just taught my whole life Nixon was a bad guy in like the last few years. I'm like, oh, shit. And you didn't notice that Woodard was Navy intelligence and Deep Throat was, you know what, FBI, right? Yeah. Yeah, every single person in that game was deep state. Every last one in that game was deep state. Well, you know, even now on some of the networks, at least a few years ago when restrophobia was at its peak, I mean, you had former CIA directors as like hosts on various CNBC or whatever. Not CNBC, MSNBC or on Fox.
Starting point is 01:49:14 They don't even have to compromise journalists anymore. They just go on and, hey, I'm former CIA. This is the news. So the news in this country is ridiculous. I mean, what you were saying earlier, Dave, about can you trust anything. I mean, you sound, if you just change it to strictly financial matters, that was Tony Deaton. And you know who Tony Deaton is, right? He's a great guy.
Starting point is 01:49:38 And he says the same thing. He goes, I can't believe any numbers. He goes, you want to believe, but then you realize as you get older that it's all, they lie to you. It's all lies. His annual report this year was way darker than normal. Oh, I haven't read it. I should look. I mean, yeah, his company. Yeah. What is it? Edelweiss? Yeah, Edelweiss. Yeah. I was supposed to fly to Switzerland to the annual meeting and it was just so hard for me to travel. Do you own any shares?
Starting point is 01:50:06 No. He just called me. He calls me one day and he says, I'm going to make you an offer you can't refuse. Okay, go for it. And he said, he knows that my wife has health issues and makes traveling hard. And he says, I will hire a private duty nurse to take care of your wife. And I said, well, that's not the problem. It's just getting on a plane and this and that. And then it's interesting. He kind of backed out. And I think he realized that even though I didn't refuse his offer, my suspicion is that he realized that he had leaned pretty hard and that maybe he should back off.
Starting point is 01:50:40 So he kind of let me off the hook and I didn't go. He invited me to stay for two weeks on his 25-acre strawberry farm on Crete. I don't think I'm aware of this guy. He's got some real money. I'll send you a link, Marty. You have an interview that Grant Williams did with him a few years ago. He's like my – Do you know the back story of that interview?
Starting point is 01:51:03 Do you know the back story of that interview? No, not really. So Tony calls me one day and I'm chatting with him and I said, you ought to do a podcast with Grant Williams. And he says, OK. So I sent it to an introductory email and that was during the Real Vision heyday. And Grant took a film crew to Switzerland and did a two-part interview of Tony. but what blew my circuits was he he opens the interview with this is the first public interview tony's ever done and i go holy shit and uh and then one day he was being interviewed they said
Starting point is 01:51:42 how did you vote tony and he said they said column did it column did it well you know everybody it's it's a little stupid yeah i'm more roll with x than content um i wouldn't say that why is it Why is he – why is his perspective – He's just so different. He's just so different. He's old school. He's very old school. Very Buffett-like.
Starting point is 01:52:04 He doesn't look at the share prices. He buys companies that make widgets, things like that. But he used to talk about it. You know how if you listen to Lacey Hunt, two or three years ago, Lacey would just be sort of matter of fact about we're going to do X and we're going to do Y. And then he seemed to get kind of apocalyptic. And I sent him an email. I said, Lacey, I've listened to a lot of your interviews. You sound more dire.
Starting point is 01:52:32 You sound more stressed. And he said, you would be correct. My wife is insisting I take a vacation now. So there's some really big hitters out there who are just saying, I just don't see where we can get out of this one. but my write-up in 2015 i made a compelling compelling case that the markets were ridiculously overvalued what's compelling data plots quotes from the most famous investors in the world saying the markets are heading for a cliff and where did we go since 2015 nothing but straight up right and i go i got no one's no one saw that coming they thought we were at the end
Starting point is 01:53:16 the rope again 10 years later the mike mike green's you know passive theories make sense you know everybody you're now mandatory to get into a you know a passive fund and you put in the sp500 and it's a completely price insensitive way of investing so until that the flows reverse everything's about the flows so until the flows reverse i think you know here's the thing dave if flows keep coming in it doesn't matter if nvidia is at 200 times earnings they'll buy it 5,000 times earnings. It won't matter until it matters. But then when they finally stop coming in, this is like you're looking up at the mountain and you're going, it's been snowing every day for a goddamn month and there's been no avalanche, right? Richard Russell once was asked, why can't
Starting point is 01:54:01 this go on forever? And he says, go into your kid's room and start stacking blocks and keep stacking them. What happens? And what happens is the block, the stack gets so high that it becomes hyper shock sensitive and you end up with a big fucking pile of debris when that pile falls so the further from equilibrium you get the more you blow yourself up when you return i think what mike suggested if i'm remembering right is even in march 2020 when the market went down like 30 or something like that he said apparently there was almost very little index selling there was there was some and just a little bit was enough to get a 30 drop in other words in other words you're going to have potentially just huge gaps down well what's
Starting point is 01:54:43 whatever the circuit breakers will allow you know maybe days in a row you know which someone like me i'd be like awesome you know stocks are on sale because it's so funny that you know what's the only thing that people don't want to buy when it's on sale and that's generally stocks you know and everybody wants to buy them when they're when they're at the top and of course that works Momentum investing has worked, but this price-insensitive investing is – it's great until it's not. Yeah, you're right. And I don't know when the demographic cliff is going to hit. What I'm positive is – here's what – I said this yesterday I think.
Starting point is 01:55:20 I think that if I never buy another stock, I will go to my grave better off. So if I just say no stocks. I do not believe that this whole thing can go through a real – when they call something 10% drop or 15% drop a correction, then six months later, it's back to a new high. That's not a correction. What do you guys think – I'm thinking of this, like what could reverse the trend of these flows? Retirement. Well, retirement being one. Recession.
Starting point is 01:55:52 The other one is like does inflation get to a point where people are just forced to tap in? And this is what I'm looking up right now, like early 401k withdrawals. Yeah, that's already a thing. But there's a point where – well, first of all, most 401ks, most people don't have any money in them or very little, even the people that have them, IRAs. But let's say – what is it, Dave, where you're forced to start taking distributions? Is it 70 or – 72. 72.
Starting point is 01:56:19 72. Okay, so I don't know. When a bulk of boomers hit 72, maybe that's when the flows start to change. But if $300,000 salaries are 62% of the time in credit card trouble, right? There's all sorts of ways this can stop. And we just don't know. The butterfly will flap its wings somewhere over Madagascar, and that will be the end of that. Right.
Starting point is 01:56:43 I mean, we haven't had a bear market really since, what, 2009, 08, 09. Right, right. And by the way, rates were being cut all the way down. I post charted that yesterday. Same thing in 2001 to 2003. Rates were being cut all the way down. People don't even know that. The index lost 50%.
Starting point is 01:56:59 The index, S&P 500 index lost over 50% in both 2001 to 03 and from, you know, 08 to 09, 07 to 09. And 50% and they're cutting rates the entire time and all the way down to zero. People think that cutting rates is bullish. Yeah, it's not. It's not. When they're cutting rates, it means that you're in the middle of an avalanche. Yeah. Well, there's a lot of argument that high rates are a sign of a healthy economy and low rates are a result of a sick economy.
Starting point is 01:57:27 And certainly I think we've had a sick economy at least until recently as far as the rates. I mean we're finally normal. Market keeps going up. I don't know. I think it's the flows that explain it. I mean that's the most perplexing thing to me with like the battering to lower rates. This is – I thought it became consensus view in 2015 on that zero interest rate policy was not a good thing, something we should try to get away from. Honig – Tom Honig is good on this because he was around when they voted on all this stuff.
Starting point is 01:57:57 He says that's the problem. Even the people – there's a lot of smart people that say they don't have a problem with the Fed moving in like QE1 or something. I mean we could still debate that. Don't get me started. But I'll concede that. okay the immediate emergency you're trying to save the pension funds or whatever you step in and you lower rates or whatever for whatever good that does but it's after the economy is back booming they're still they're still doing qe and they still have rates at zero i mean they were
Starting point is 01:58:27 buying mortgage-backed securities the fed they owned zero in 2008 they they bought 2.7 trillion at the peak this time and they're now down to like 2.3 because they're under so underwater on it that They can't sell them. They have to let them run off. But they were buying billions, hundreds of billions of mortgage-backed securities when Kay Schiller was running over 20% year-over-year house prices. They had no business being in mortgage-backed securities at all. And, in fact, it's argued that it's illegal. Not that that matters because if it went to Congress, Congress would vote, okay, let them do it.
Starting point is 01:59:02 Because Congress, like I go back to, the Fed's Congress's drug dealer. But Randy Woodward has a great clip that I posted talking about this where he says he's in the bank bond business. He's like, I had clients buying more MBS. I don't know why. Yes, they were down a bit, but, you know, I don't know why the Fed went nuts on it. And he goes, the rumors I heard, this is from Randy, was that somebody in Europe was in trouble and they were trying to bail them out, help them out and buy the MBS or whatever. So, again, it goes to bailing out, not letting capitalism work. Let some billionaires fail.
Starting point is 01:59:35 When was the last time a billionaire failed? I mean, I guess it can happen theoretically, but, you know, I mean, Lloyd Blankfein should be bankrupt. We're back to Ken Lay. Well, there's no accountability, and that goes across all spectrums of politics and finance and everything. And, well, just look at, you know, the dystopian areas of California where, you know, you've got the fentanyl addicts leaning over in the street left and right. And people post videos of them, and there's no accountability. The people that run the cities in the state, they don't care. And it's not just California.
Starting point is 02:00:08 It's many states. Sometimes I post a video one time and people were arguing over which city it was. They couldn't even – it was California. But the country is a mess in a lot of ways. There's a lot of people hurting. And there's a lot of parts of town you can't go to across the United States. And we're worried about Israel? We're worried about Ukraine?
Starting point is 02:00:26 I don't get it. I think a lot of people don't get it. What are we doing? I wrote about Ukraine and the devastation. I showed six photos of the devastation, one of which was Ukraine. One was Ukraine from 2006. Right. To show that the devastation started long before this war.
Starting point is 02:00:43 And then the other four were different places in the country, including Baltimore and Detroit and things like that. And it was easy to sell it. I said, look, I just duped you. Yeah. You just fell for it. Those are not Ukraine. Yeah. What happened to America first?
Starting point is 02:00:57 What happened to MAGA? I mean, seriously. I mean, seriously, it's it's stunning how much they not only are they ignoring it, but they're actually blatantly in your face. I mean, you've got Kash Patel saying saying our number one priority should be Israel. I mean, that's a quote, you know, but yeah. What is that? I mean, I got nothing against. I don't care if he said my number one priority is, you know, Botswana.
Starting point is 02:01:18 I'd be like, what are you talking about? It's nuts. I don't understand. And our founding fathers warned us about this. George Washington's farewell speech. He warns about these attachments to other nations. They get us in trouble. And again, I've posted on all this stuff over the years.
Starting point is 02:01:33 We should not. He also warns against political parties, by the way, too. So get out of the D versus R and get out of this caring about other countries more than the United States. We've got a lot of issues to deal with in the United States. We've got infrastructure. We've got health care. It's a big problem. People can't afford it.
Starting point is 02:01:46 We've got fentanyl addicts in the streets. We've got crime in many areas. It's still way too bad. Let's fix all that before we go fix the world and save the world. that comes like shifting like i'm sure there's some hostages in the united states right now human trafficking that we could be going after why are we going after hostages you know thousands of miles away in another country i mean god bless them i hope they're they're okay if they exist i don't know i believe they exist we're back to this question but america first 350 000 kids
Starting point is 02:02:15 disappeared coming across the southern border right where's yeah that's that's insane did they go right who did they go to name name a person who received one now i dug into this ted gunderson back in 91 was saying that a blonde haired blue-eyed kid brings 50 000 bucks on the open market these are not being bought by guys with vans that say free candy on the side right exactly and so the questions and the mainstream press talks about the problems with human trafficking and they never say who are the consumers right now you'll see mug shots of of you know guys you who have no names attached they say oh we arrested 200 guys and they have a whole thread on this that's right and and and but they never say oh by the way you know here's here's the other larry
Starting point is 02:03:05 king receiving the kids in omaha nebraska yeah you know and and uh you just it just and somehow i i watched uh you know one of these infomercials on the higher tier channels i recognize the interviewers it's one of these ones i've seen these guys before they're interviewing a guy who has a startup company selling young blood for transfusions and i watched i watched the i watched the interviewers dancer on the question of where the hell do you get young blood from and and and it's like oh yeah the blood banks are filled with 12 year olds blood and and and i think a ton of them are coming to that there's millions of kids a year disappearing where do they go and no one ever ever ever mentions who are the consumers and this should be the number
Starting point is 02:04:03 one priority it would be nice if if someone in power uh was interested in this stuff yeah cindy mccain it's in the binders they held the binders off they just didn't open them i don't follow any of those clowns that were waving the vibrators binders do you oh no they were irrelevant no no no no they were irrelevant they were they were they were just there for a photo op okay yeah there wasn't schellenberger and taibbi let's put it that way right right no it was like c c tier oh what do they call it uh con inc sort of well there's so many celebrities yeah i call them the trump kiss ass brigade there's a bunch of them now and there's a lot of bots too and there's always been bots but there's more now than ever and some of them i've had replies you know they're
Starting point is 02:04:46 a lot of the ai i guess is doing some of these replies now where they're like you know i'll say something about the federal reserve and they'll reply yeah the fed has been doing that for some time by the way uh you know uh you know some account talked about this and and you know it kind of looks at first glance like a legitimate and that's not it's just a it's these bots are becoming smarter um but the influencers i have to block i i had a bot that was overtly a bot yeah and and i i would read what they said but but then their their responses got increasingly propagandized yeah and and at first you know i'm thinking well you know a computer could probably hold up a conversation better than a human so let's let's start with that assumption um but
Starting point is 02:05:29 But then it just it became and I don't know if it's programmed into the bots to do that or if it's just that the propaganda is statistically such a huge percentage of the story of what it's trained on. Yeah. Yeah. And so if 95 percent of the people of the stories out there say the vaccines are safe and effective, the bots not going to come out and say they hurt people. that's right it's glory i call it glorified autocomplete and i've found uh grok lies give me absolute falsehoods a number of times on factual issues yeah so i don't trust it at all um i don't know but apparently there's people that are losing their minds over it but now you're getting one-shotted by a gpt psychosis they're calling it yeah yeah you know i was going to teach her i was going to there's a lot of lost people out there i was going to teach a writing course at Cornell instead of a chem course, because I'm a big believer that writing is a
Starting point is 02:06:21 very important part of thinking, right? If you can't put a coherent story together on paper, edit it, then you don't understand yet. And there's a freshman writing seminar and it's well-known and stuff like that. So I was going to teach a personal finance course and just cover whatever topics, right? You know, why you start saving, why you shouldn't buy lattes at the local place instead of save your money and make your own coffee, that sort of thing. And then ChatGPT showed up and said, not doing it. I'm not going to be sitting there grading and copy editing papers
Starting point is 02:06:58 written by computers. Have you seen the chart floating around this week of ChatGPT usage? No. No. Falls off a cliff on June 6th. Why? Because school ended. That's when school was out.
Starting point is 02:07:11 Oh, is that right? Yeah. Oh, my God. i'll find it you got to see this well i got i got an email from some kid was asking me questions and i showed it to someone that didn't even click with me and they said oh they used they use ai to formulate the questions i go oh my god the fucking students are asking me questions using ai to formulate the questions no not good well it's not good and they're they're gonna stink because you can't i don't think you can replace the human brain i don't think you can replace thinking
Starting point is 02:07:48 that i mean there was a big splash with open ai's chat gpt5 release and like anybody on the cutting edge so this is the chart you look june 6th this falls off a cliff into the summer months that's the school year huh summer vacations on but i thought it was mostly being used by pros I didn't realize that it was so dominated by schools. No, I mean, you have to think, kids are more likely to adopt new technology. So it's not the schools. So how are they going to get smart? That's a great question.
Starting point is 02:08:24 I don't know. Somebody with young children. They got to get smart, in my opinion. If we don't have anyone who's smart. They need good parents, number one, to recognize this. I think that's the only way. My other fear of AI is not the take over the world Terminator story, but rather the world's already frustrating enough when – I don't know if you have health issues or anything to deal with, but all of a sudden you've got a health portal and you have trouble dealing with it. And you go to log in and it says, is that your password?
Starting point is 02:08:59 And I go, I know the hell it is my password and things like that. And you call a help desk, and you used to get a Guatemala, and now you get a robot. And I worry that we're going to have a system in which there's no mechanism for a person to intervene. So that you have this problem, and you say, I need to solve this problem. And there's just no one who can say, look, let me help you out here. Right? And you're just going to loop. You're just going to loop.
Starting point is 02:09:33 The way you learn to be a good writer, I always thought, was by reading a lot. So I used to read a lot, and I don't know, people don't read much anymore. Or they read little blurbs on their phone. But also, you've got to write. Well, that's how I, I mean, yeah, but I learned, I think, I personally think I learned to write because I read a lot. You learn how things can be phrased, and you learn spelling, especially. I'm a pretty good speller and most people a lot of people are horrific spellers
Starting point is 02:10:04 but yeah anyway that's just a suggestion read more books the other thing though is if you have a good copy editor I don't mean chat GPT that just does it and you ignore it but a person who works on the sentence for you and you pay attention to what they've done to it that's
Starting point is 02:10:21 how you learn and I can't afford a copy editor you have to I paid off grants You have to – well, if you're asking for a couple million dollars a grant, it's worth a couple hundred bucks to get a copy of it. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 02:10:38 You know, and you really have to write a pretty flawless grant to get funded. Don't people use AI now to write their grant proposals? They probably do. They probably do. Yeah. I'm guessing they do. Check out – in that podcast that I sent you a link to on Twitter, it's – they talk about – one of the guys mentions that, that he's using AI to write his grant proposals. Or he wrote some software to utilize it to –
Starting point is 02:11:04 But you're just never going to get the inspiration. That eureka moment is going to be missing. You're going to get – when I debated Steve Keen on climate change. Oh, yeah. Yeah. In my opinion, he just self-destructed. I didn't have to say anything, but I refer to it as sort of squeegeeing the drippings off the floor of the internet, right? It just – but I did get one interesting tidbit from AI.
Starting point is 02:11:35 So I asked Grok. I said, name 20 guys who think climate change is bullshit. I said, not a problem, and they listed 20 guys. I knew at least 18 of them. I knew who they were. I recognized the names. And I said, I changed the question. I said, name 10 solar physicists who think climate change is a problem. Now, these are the guys who ought to. Right. They understand the sun.
Starting point is 02:12:00 And they said there are no solar physicists who've made definitive statements about the about AI, about climate change being a crisis. I'm going, oh, you just lost the debate right there, dude. Well, Bill Gates is going to blot out the sun anyway, so it's not going to be. Oh, my God. These big projects like mosquitoes that self-vaccinate. He got kicked out of India. Yeah. Oh, God.
Starting point is 02:12:24 He's such a sick bastard. And I know his right-hand man, and I've spent so much emotional effort to not ask him. So I know the guy who spent 14 hours a day with him for years. And I have not leaned in on him and said, tell me. I haven't asked him anything about Bill. I just decided. Well, you know, Bill had a very interesting social life before he was married. That's stories from years ago.
Starting point is 02:12:53 I tell me about that because someone told me that they used to deliver pizzas to he and his buddies, and they said they're a bunch of pervs. Right. But at the time, it didn't matter to me. I thought, what are pervs? Are they watching porn flicks or whatever? Yeah. And now in retrospect, I go, oh, who said that? Who told me that?
Starting point is 02:13:13 I cannot – Yeah, I'm going to try and look up the article that I posted somewhere. Yeah, I don't know. I can't remember offhand the details. But yeah, it was something like that. It was pool parties and yacht parties or whatever, that sort of thing. So one of the things I realized is that we're all driven by the need for neurotransmitters. And so we get them by watching a horror movie.
Starting point is 02:13:35 We get them by watching a comedy. We get them by watching – we get them by reading something that's heartwarming. We get them by achieving something. When you get to the point where you're rich and powerful and you can't – you've got more money than God, as you said, and you can, in theory, bang every chick on the planet, where do you get your neurotransmitters from? You still need them. You still flat out need them. And the answer is, I don't know, sex with five-year-olds. No, I don't know.
Starting point is 02:14:05 Well, I know you don't. I don't want to – yeah. I hear you. But I think that's where these guys – I think that these guys end up there because it's like the thrill seekers, right? The guys who do the wingsuits, right? There's some guy who did wingsuits. He said, I know 18 guys who do this wingsuit shit. Six are dead now, right?
Starting point is 02:14:24 Well, you know, with Gates, you don't even need to go – you could talk about his connections to Jelaine Maxwell's sister, Isabel. I'm unaware of this. I'm unaware of this. Oh, my God. I'm going to send you the whole thread here. Yeah, he – she – okay. It starts really great. Um, it's a, it's another rabbit hole.
Starting point is 02:14:43 Okay. So, uh, there's a company called Chiliad. So I'm, I'm using my own. Gilead, the pharmaceutical? No, no. Chiliad, um, Jelaine Maxwell's sister, Christine. This is, she has two sisters, Christine and Isabel. So Christine, uh, was founded, co-founded by Christine Maxwell.
Starting point is 02:15:04 Chiliad is used by the FBI in their, uh, it's, uh, to protect, and defend against terrorist threats. Okay. Yeah. It's a counterterrorism database. The article that I found it now is, in fact, I'll resend it right now, is from 2006. And so I'll just send that. I'll DM you on that.
Starting point is 02:15:30 You can check it out. Yeah. Both sisters were involved with – one was involved with the FBI and the other one was involved with Microsoft, very heavily involved in the Internet and the Magellan search engines back in the, what was that, the 90s? Terramar. So there were, yeah, Terramar is a whole other rat hole. But there was dealings between Isabel's sister, I mean, Jelaine's sister and Microsoft in
Starting point is 02:15:56 the 90s. So Bill Gates claims he doesn't, he never met Epstein until 2011. Oh, he was lying his ass off. And the fact is, is that there's an article from 2001, which I personally read. It's been deleted. I mean, scrubbed off the Internet, but you can find it in the whatever the databases of news articles that I briefly had access to. It says Bill Gates or Epstein has made his wealth from his his business ties with they
Starting point is 02:16:26 named three people, Les Wexner, Donald Trump and Bill Gates. And this is a 2001 article, which I will now resend again. Yeah, so I mean it's possible that Epstein's ties with Maxwell – I mean with – well, with Maxwell and with Epstein could have gone back well below the 90s. Did you see what came out this week or last week, the pictures from his New York apartment? Yes, yes. On the desk, it's a picture of him. Those were not new. No, they're not.
Starting point is 02:16:56 I've seen some of them before. Yeah, yeah. I watch – they do police walkthroughs of crime scenes. They don't say anything. They just film. right i watched the entire police walkthrough of his of his townhouse is that publicly available it was okay yeah it was i know when i get videos get deleted yeah oh boy i was i was chasing deleted youtube i was writing about the uh the the vegas shootings they were deleting
Starting point is 02:17:22 very very fast right right they deleted a lot of the yeah the vegas shooting stuff too got all deleted yeah we need yeah that's one thing uh everything gets deleted But usually, if it's an article, you can sometimes find it or generally find it. But with videos, it's really hard. So I always say if you come across a video that you think is worth keeping, you need to save it to an MP4 and keep it locally. There's different tools you can use that will save it. Yeah, you can probably find all the videos on BitTorrent or PirateWire. Ah, okay.
Starting point is 02:17:56 Let's see. Is that part of the dark web that CNBC has warned me about? BitTorrent. I mean, they may be considered, but you have like 4chan autists that are definitely archiving all this stuff. Okay, good. Because, no, I just make a joke because CNBC periodically goes through their panic. They'll panic about vaping when they were doing one time. And then they were panicking about the dark web, you know, and Bitcoin, Bitcoin on the dark web and criminals.
Starting point is 02:18:18 And, you know, as opposed to the criminals in the U.S. dollar. But anyway, yeah, well, it's good somebody's saving them. I just don't know how to access. I just haven't accessed them off of BitTorrent. or if they're indexed anywhere, so you can search. I mean, that's something that's been talked a lot about in the deep web, dark web, whatever you want to call it. It's like dead internet theory.
Starting point is 02:18:41 Like you're going to get to a point where – Well, that too. So if I wrote something that's been scrubbed, but I have the original text, can I find it by standard searches or are they – Sometimes. Sometimes. If you have the original link, sometimes archive.org will be able to find it. So I have that, but I actually have the tech.
Starting point is 02:19:02 So in theory, I can do a character search. Yeah, I've done both. Yeah, and I would suggest trying several different search engines because they give you different results. Do you ever use Yandex? On occasion, yes. Yes. Yandex, what's great about it is the Russians don't care about scrubbing our smut off Yandex. Yeah.
Starting point is 02:19:24 Yeah, no, I've used – there's a number of them. Google now is really, really bad, I think, compared to what it used to be. Yeah, and so sometimes, you know, like I was double-checking, Grok lied to me on a quote that I knew for a fact was not what Grok told me. So then I checked Google's AI or whatever, and it gave me a different lie. And then I think I checked Bing's AI, and it gave me a different lie. And then, you know, it was basically who and where was this quote from. And then I actually asked Google, and Google actually gave me the correct answer.
Starting point is 02:19:59 So that was kind of surprising. But there's an article that – here, I'll send it out, tweet it around now – of Sergey Brin and Larry Page, who were both, by the way, very tied in to Connected to Epstein. Larry and DARPA. Yeah, both of them. But they have a great paper that I posted. Let me find it real quick. I'm good at remembering keywords. That's how I look stuff up.
Starting point is 02:20:23 So your retrieval from your own posts is spectacular. I don't know if you've. Yeah, there's two ways to do that, Dave. I remember the keywords and I can search here. Let me just tell you, this is a paper I just resent. Sergey Brin and Lawrence Page in 1998, they wrote a paper and the quote that I selected was advertising income often produces an incentive to provide poor quality search results. So they're right. They know it, you know, back in 1998.
Starting point is 02:20:54 This is a Stanford Info Lab paper that I just retweeted. So, okay, this is the way I do it, Dave. You either search, like I just searched from Rudy Havenstein, Brin, Page, Honest, because I remember the keywords. You know, Brin and Page being Honest. Now, here's the problem with Google Search. I mean, not Google Search, with Twitter Search. It doesn't – it's schizophrenic.
Starting point is 02:21:15 Do you use advanced Twitter search? Do you use advanced Twitter search? Yes, I have, but the results are the same as far as – because you can use little keyword things. You just do like from, colon, at, the name, and keyword. Yeah, yeah. And you can also do since and until if you're looking for certain date ranges. But the thing is, is that sometimes you'll get strange – like I may search for incentive, like that's in the tweet I'm looking at here. So from Rudy Havenstein, incentive.
Starting point is 02:21:43 and and something may not uh it may not show up but if i but if i search for an incentive then it does show up just strange things like that that don't make any sense like just adding a adding a uh or an i or something it so you can't count on it the better search is if you can download your archive uh which in my case is rather large uh you can you can uh save it on your computer and it's useful because it has its own search and it searches better than the online search so you can i actually find things a lot um that by searching the archive rather than searching the live version because it's just a better search it returns more actual results so google searches i mean i keep saying google twitter search is good but it's it's it's weird
Starting point is 02:22:30 it's not always it doesn't always work and so the better one is if you're if you're interested and that's how i use this as like a database i'm searching for stuff all the time through my stuff you know and as i as i pointed out it's all stream of consciousness i don't have anything planned i just sit down i got the i got the thinker swim up app up and i got cmbc in the background you know driving me insane and and i um and i just whatever pops you know whatever you know that's why it's so eclectic you know i said it's like kamala harris it's in a stream of consciousness so anyway uh yeah i just i just retweeted that the uh the page one so i don't know is there any other issues we haven't solved yet today i don't think we've solved any issues i think no we haven't
Starting point is 02:23:12 i was gonna say i was gonna say we have we have we went down enough rabbit holes to realize that we've hit gobeckley tepe um well i have said i have dmd a couple things guys and i and i retweeted some stuff too if you want to look and anything you want to ask me about i i can find it for you and dave if you're ever looking for an old article you can't find let me know because i can i'll help you i will definitely ask you i you've got some threads that i occasionally go back and read where where where it's they're topical threads and you just keep adding to the end of the thread and those are really useful sometimes yeah they they broke that about a couple months ago and i and it was like all those threads were like destroyed so you you couldn't even access yeah but on the
Starting point is 02:24:00 web version on the web which is what i use uh they actually fixed it a couple weeks ago and so i'm glad because i was like going what do i have to start over or what yeah they fixed it but it was a web only version is my understanding and that's i've never used the app i don't have the app on my phone so well yeah i don't i i use on the phone a little when i'm sitting in a doctor's office or something but it's not a big part of my day i think i think the only thing we solved here conclusion we came to is it's all fucked uh these people no i still have hope i have like So I'm like Rust Cole at the end of True Detective, where he says, you know, once it was all dark and now there's stars. So maybe the light is winning.
Starting point is 02:24:41 It's like nothing ever happened, nothing that to your point, Dave, about the noise, like they bring noise and they draw your attention to the political apparatus and always get your hopes up that you're going to solve it via that apparatus and distract you from actually developing the agency to solve it in the Buckminster Fuller way, which is like create a system outside of it. And that's they want to discourage you, I think. yeah and they're doing a good job of it but i try to pursue i endeavor to persevere gentlemen but we we shouldn't wait to do uh do this uh we shouldn't wait two or three years however long it's been to do this again well maybe later this afternoon we'll come back on finish everything yeah sure thank you marty you're always a gracious host you let dave and i ramble thank you guys it's always a pleasure and uh i hope you guys enjoy your weekend let's let's go have a good weekend touch grass it's friday all right i'm gonna get touched thank you
Starting point is 02:25:31 he's a billionaire now you you're gonna get in soon dave we're gonna get you in by the end of this year uh i own a little i'll know when it's time it's time now dave i'm telling you i did a four i did a five person bitcoin podcast of which four were hodlers and it got kind of ugly it just I felt like I was playing Smear the Queer or something. The Bitcoin people have been nice to me. I've been on several Bitcoin podcasts, and I think – and they know I'm a Luddite, although I do own a little bit. But the risk-reward, I think, was – at least it was interesting. I mean I should be a billionaire now.
Starting point is 02:26:13 I could have bought it all day long years ago. But I think we have a common view of the financial system and the problems that it's causing. And as I like to phrase it, you know, the gold guys and the Bitcoin guys are passengers on the same hijacked plane. We are. And so when the plane is being hijacked, you got to work together to try and stop it. And if you can't stop it, then you got to do what you can do to preserve your purchasing power. So that's – But I do believe 30,000 cryptos are going to go to zero.
Starting point is 02:26:46 Well, easily. By definition. By definition. It's not bullshit. How many are there now? Well, first we have to put them in your IRA. Well, yeah, I'm sorry. That's bloated with private equity now, so I don't have any room left.
Starting point is 02:27:01 Oh, okay. You're already – All right. We'll end it with an optimistic silver lining to the banks now that they're getting into it. They're going to take the same risk they've been taking with the traditional system with Bitcoin. They're going to completely blow up by rehypothecating Bitcoin. And we get to bail them out again. They're going to fuck it up so bad.
Starting point is 02:27:22 Awesome. Awesome. Oh, God. God, what a thought. Well, Janet's now at PIMCO, so we've got to save them again, too. Oh, yeah. Janet's so smart. I called her on, I think, Camboni's podcast.
Starting point is 02:27:35 I called her a flat-headed hobbit. And she kind of looked at me. I don't think she quite got the flat-headed, you know. Wait, she was on with you? Well, she interviewed me. Wait, who interviewed you? Camboni. Oh, okay.
Starting point is 02:27:50 I thought you were on a panel with Yellen and you said that. No, no, no. But I referred to Yellen as a flat-headed hobbit. I'm not sure Danielle understood how off-color that statement was. Well, you're a little bit R-rated for these podcasts. Yeah, yeah. Working backwards in the alphabet, I'm sliding back towards R. Yeah, I know.
Starting point is 02:28:12 Exactly. All right. Thank you, Marty. All right. Thanks, Dave. Adios. Greeks, thank you for listening to the show. I hope you liked it.
Starting point is 02:28:20 If you did like it, please make sure you subscribe, rate, review the show. It helps us out a lot. And also, if you like these conversations, I've come to realize that many people listen to the podcast. They don't know we have another sort of layer of this media company. We have the newsletter, the Bitcoin Brief. Go to tftc.io. Make sure you subscribe there. A lot of the topics that are discussed on this podcast, I write about five days a week in the newsletter.
Starting point is 02:28:45 we also have the tftc elite tier if you sign up for that become a member we have a private discord server for the elite freaks out there where we're dropping ad-free versions of this show and having discussions about everything we talk about a day early logan wanted me to make sure if you want to get the show a day early become a tftc elite member you will get that you have our discord server right now it's conversation between myself and tftc elite tier members but we're going to expand that we'll probably do closed q and a's with people in the industry i may be doing macro mondays so join us go to tftc.io subscribe find the button in the top right corner of the website become a tftc elite member thank you for joining us
Starting point is 02:29:42 Thank you.

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