TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #699: TradFi's Secret War Against Bitcoin with Ryan Lane
Episode Date: December 29, 2025Marty sits down with Ryan Lane, founder of Empory Asset Management, to discuss his journey from traditional finance to Bitcoin treasury strategies, how legacy banks are covertly fighting Bitcoin adopt...ion while publicly embracing it, and why sovereign treasury adoption could be the catalyst that finally stabilizes the asset. Empery Digital: https://ir.emperydigital.com/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBz Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bit.ly/4pOv2L4 Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Obscura https://obscura.net/ SLNT https://slnt.com/tftc CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Salt of the Earth: [https://drinksote.com/tftc](https://drinksote.com/) Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter [tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/](http://tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/) Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/
Transcript
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you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free
if you talk about a fed just gone nuts all all the central banks going nuts so it's all acting
like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to
devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean
that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should
be. Ryan, thank you for joining us. I think this has been an interesting discussion because I think
you've been heavily immersed in what many would deem to be the TradFi world for years with Embry
Asset Management. You founded it in 2008. So I think you've been through a couple of TradFi
cycle it's a interesting founding uh an asset manager in 2008 when the world was a bit more
chaotic so i think to really set up this conversation is let's go back to 2008 starting
empery asset management um being very successful uh in that world and then coming to find bitcoin
and really lean into it full bore yeah it's really through conversations like this that makes me think
back to what that was then because 2008 was a fascinating time right it was a you know a true
financial crisis right driven by finance you know consequences to finance it was just financial all
all around right money markets trading at discounts to to their uh you know par value or a dollar
right that's you know hard to fathom that cash is trading below cash so but you know we managed to
get our uh funds together and we were supposed to launch with 50 million bucks uh we ended up
launching with five uh because everyone just panicked like literally like had signed subscription
agreements and just panicked so you know we've seen it we didn't hold people to you know their
subscriptions uh because everyone was just too nervous and we just said you know hold your money
and watch us perform and come in when you're comfortable uh because everyone was scrambling
for every dollar they could sort of secure at the time so it was interesting and then when we first
started the biggest risk was we held cash right and depending on where your cash was and what
bank it was in like cash was at risk if that bank went under so we had multiple bank accounts we had
goldman we had jp morgan we had jeffries and we had like td uh and we i every morning i had
wire instructions with the balances in the accounts to be able to move them out based on,
you know, the bank potentially collapsing. So I could just quickly move. And that was,
you know, you couldn't do electronic wires. So it was sort of like you're faxing or scanning
wires to the prime broker to get the funds out and trying to be ahead of everyone else. Because
you know, if you were a little bit slow, you were going down with the ship, right? And then you got
to go unscramble the eggs and get your money back, which could take a decade in worst case
scenario or maybe long case scenario. So that's what we were dealing with. It was investing was
like almost secondary. It was protecting our cash and then finding interesting things to do.
So we've seen, I think, the worst right out of the gate. And then we performed well. We stuck
to our discipline and we made money. We effectively were doing and still are doing private equity
style investments uh in the public markets right structuring transactions with public companies
and funding whatever their mission to you know growth was and we've been doing that for almost
two decades now generating good returns what what's it like structuring these deals is it
sort of white label go in depending on what the uh particular company is what their goals are
really sitting down with them and getting it done? Or is there some formula to this?
It's very much a bespoke market. Every provision, every aspect, every term is negotiated with that
issuer based on what the risks are there, what we're seeking for upside, how much
risk tolerance do we have, right? Are we structuring as equity or structuring as a
convert, right? We'll go all the way up and down the capital structure from senior secured debt
to just plain vanilla common uh with you know no rights whatsoever so we'll we'll go depending on
what the situation is right because that's kind of what investing is it's fitting your structure
and the capital to their needs uh if you like the situation so you know hundreds to sometimes
thousands of pages of documents for each transaction we've done over 2,500 in the last
18 years so we have we have a machine but it's it's a it's a very cumbersome machine and then
it's also organizing all the investments you've made and all understanding all those provisions
which you know the the current iteration of ai and all that stuff is helpful with that but you've got
a you know you've got a big file to manage uh as well so you have to have a good operational team
for that so doing this uh since 2008 so just as you're describing that i'm thinking uh in my head
like how how much is the scale of these like of these individual deals changed as you've had qe1
qe2 covid stimulus how much more money is being demanded by these deals i'm just
curious specifically i mean back in 2008 it's a good question back in 2008 it was the only it was
it was very spotty transactions like very little was getting funded uh and it was only things that
you know made a lot of sense that were like distressed like heckler mining was one where
it was like the biggest silver producer in the country it was on the verge of bankruptcy so you
go in and you fund that and you kind of resurrect that asset and you take bankruptcy off the table
and then it really performed really well it was very kind of you know niche things like that that
made sense to finance in that environment and then covid was the exact opposite right covid was
people were throwing money at everything because liquidity was crazy and performance was crazy
and you could manage a ton of money and recycle that money with returns i mean that i don't think
you could get more of a disparate time than from financial crisis to like COVID. And then it's,
you know, it's the risk capital has been off since the end of COVID really until the last
12 months. And even that's been spotty, right? Biotech's come back, obviously the AI boom,
there's different sectors that are moving, but we don't have a, you know, a broad market rally.
There's some interesting things going on within the market that has kind of kept it from being
broad right there's just a lot of change happening do you think it's just over indexing on the ai
boom specifically or i think that's attracting a lot of capital right and then you have this whole
like what's happening to the middle management world right within all these corporations ai is
sort of replacing a lot of the mundane work right as a as a senior person uh how many middle
management and junior people do you need when you can just get your information from you know a chat
bot right and when you have the smartest person within each sector available on an ai engine
at least to start your work and you know initially educate you on that how you know how much how much
work do you need from your middle management how much of that can you slice out and i think we're
seeing that across the board and a lot of you're seeing law firms you're going to see in accounting
firms right you're going to see it in you know even companies like amazon and you know all these
you know cloud computing companies right you can eliminate a lot of that data analytics because
that can just be automated so it's a the economy is kind of trying to figure its way through this
employment's trying to figure its way through this right because it's the other it affects
different ends of the spectrum different things i think about here media company of four or five
people what it's allowed us to do to extend our productivity and efficiency it's been miraculous
over the last two years really leaning into it but then you have these behemoths with tens of
thousands of employees where they're going to meet in the middle so i i've been very vocal about this
if you're a small team starting up right now it's never been a better time to start a business but
if you're yeah a large corporation with a bunch of head counts and sgna there's going to be some
tough conversations moving forward yep like my my son runs a 3d printing he's like 15 runs a 3d
printing business out of our basement and i could have never even dreamed about doing that right
because everything is automated he gets all his own and they can run a full business while in
school right that just the ability to leverage that technology and leverage automation leverage
information right he's like oh i want to buy a new 3d printing hey chat gbt compare these two
models tell me what's better for this and that and that and i'll categorize all the you know
areas where different you know 3d printers are better different engraving machines are better
right from the community it has to the how you repair it with you know uh youtube videos and
who has more youtube videos to be able to make a repair on something or replace a part or whatever
it's just it's a different world and like you were saying it's not just that you lay people off
it's that you never hire them in the first place because you can leverage your internal resources
and grow yeah so it's fascinating that's funny we had um a 15 year old on the show last week
stella and she's at the alpha school in austin where they're really leaning into ai and she was
she was showing um her masterpiece project which is some game storyboarding app that'll eventually
become like a gaming application all built with claude code and speaking with her and made me
very encouraged for uh the younger gen z's and gen alpha because it seems like they're leaning
into it and it's going to be massive for them right they can leverage it we're we're we're
not smart enough to be able to do that because we're not we didn't grow up with it we're just
trying to survive speaking of survival and transitioning to bitcoins and i think um that's
one thing i'm into bitcoin for like i think we're in this transition into the digital age and uh we
sort of got to shed the skin of the incumbent system a big part of that incumbent system being
the financial system which is riddled with debts and perverse incentives depending on where you
look and i view bitcoin as a solution to a lot of these problems particularly the debt issues
that exist i think we need to recapitalize the system with better collateral and obviously
what you're doing in emperor digital um it seems like you have come to a similar conclusion so
what led you from um what you had been doing to really i don't want to say drop everything but
like look at bitcoin and say oh i need to lean into this pretty heavily so i i will say out of
the gate you say shed the skin i think it's a really good comparison because uh in this world
that we live in today let's just say tradifies the snake skin that doesn't want to come off
right it's not it's not like the snake skin where they voluntarily shed like here bitcoin's trying
to insert and the skin's like i'm not letting go i'm hanging on to the snake right uh so it's the
transitions tough um because there's a lot of fighting overtly and covertly right i see that
on a daily basis especially coming from tradfi and understanding how it works um but my our
transition started um because for the longest time like we were a registered investment advisor
with the SEC, right? And SEC was enforcement, enforcement, enforcement, right? They were going
after anyone in the digital asset world, whether you're doing something right or whether you're
doing something wrong. And like any industry, a lot of people are doing things wrong and some
people are doing things right, but it didn't matter because they just, they had a blanket
approach to, if you're in digital assets, if you're in Bitcoin, if you're doing things within
crypto, you must be doing something wrong. That was kind of the approach. And for us as a registered
investment advisor that could be audited by the SEC, you know, any given day, right. They come
in every couple of years or every few years and they could do it at any time. And, you know,
I didn't want to be in the position where I was even having to address that. Uh, right. I got
enough problems, you know, you know, organizing our business as it was and, you know, presenting
it to the sec in a way that gets them comfortable and then you go uh and you add this whole thing on
right and then you just give them this avenue to just dig and explore and you know they put
their radar off so under gensler at the sec not something that we were willing to dabble into as
much interest as we had in it and i did struggle with it to be to be fair um i struggled with
the purpose. And the purpose is a lot easier to describe when you don't have all these bureaucratic
hurdles, right? Once the bureaucratic hurdles drop, and you can actually see the thesis playing
out, which is the ultimate store of value, right? And, you know, fighting the debasement of all
these currencies, right? Take away that bureaucratic, you know, ceiling, and then have
that thesis and starts to look really interesting. And that's when we were like, okay, like,
Administration is clearly behind this. Gensler's out. All the enforcement people at the SEC were eliminated. Right. And everyone, even if you were involved in fraud related to crypto, you were still getting closing letters from the SEC saying we're no longer pursuing this matter. It's closed. Right.
You start seeing stuff like that and you're like, okay, this is a safe zone for someone like us who's trying to stay on the straight and narrow.
And we like it, but how can we actually get in it?
And the DAT was a very fast way to get a ton of exposure to Bitcoin, you know, kind of overnight, right?
As principals of a fund, as investors for our fund, we thought that they should have exposure to it.
We as individuals wanted exposure to it.
And then we're capital markets guys, right?
Like I started out describing, we do transactions in the public markets, investing in all these
public companies.
That's what a digital asset treasury is, right?
It's a capital market strategy to try and cheaply raise money or efficiently raise money
in the public markets with all the relationships that we have to add Bitcoin per share.
and if you if you're right in that sweet spot then and you like the bitcoin asset it just seemed
to make a lot of sense to just kind of take our team don't take the risk of building a new team
right we had our hedge fund team plop the four people in that were had the skill set to be able
to execute that capital market strategy within the public markets and boom you're off to the races
uh then the trade blew up but that's a that's a separate discussion and you know probably a longer
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think it it ties in i think there's a lot of broad skepticism of the digital asset treasury play
obviously because since um really going back to beginning of the year when strategy started
coming off uh its highs and then obviously in the summer when things really accelerated and
now um probably 28 to 30 off bitcoin's all-time highs people are asking the question was this
just a fad or is there something here and so i think starting with the debt strategy at a high
level like does it actually make sense obviously i think you do like why does it make sense um to
to deploy a strategy like this and then we can get into the sort of incentives that have been
introduced with individuals and companies like um empory digital um leaning into this like is it
is it viewed as a threat to trad fi and are there moves being made to quell the threat
yep yep uh does the that thesis make sense um it does under very specific circumstances right
like i understood that this was a big fat trade when we started on the journey like from from
i literally from when i came up with the idea to when we closed in the 500 million dollars
it was six weeks like i we banged it out right we had the thesis we identified the bankers we
identified the public company that we would that we would go into uh and then we put our roadshow
together, our presentation materials together, you know, refine the strategy, figured out where
we wanted to live within the debt world, right? Because a lot of the stuff we were looking at
from the hedge fund side was, you know, everyone seemed to have a lot of expenses associated with
their debt, whether it's this asset manager agreements that were like between like 1% and
3% for doing what? Like the public company was outsourcing the management of that asset to a
third party for some exorbitant amount of fees. That didn't make sense for us because you're like,
as the public company, that's your job, right? You're the fiduciary over that asset, manage that
asset to the best of your ability. And if you don't have those capabilities, probably shouldn't
be in the strategy, right? And you got to keep all those expenses down. You can't have big corporate
overhead. You can't have big salaries, right? So we came in really cheap, right? Low salaries. And
we're put $25 million from our hedge fund in. So we're like, okay, now we are all aligned with the
investors and we got to run this thing really efficiently, right? Keep the corporate overhead
down, the salaries down, keep the option packages. So you're not issuing more options. You're not
milking this. This is not like a lifestyle public company, like a lot of these smaller public
companies are. We're like, so when does this make sense? And I think it makes sense. And we did it
because we felt that we could make it make sense. And a lot of them are just too bloated. And when
the trade collapses right when you come near nav or below nav um how are you servicing all those
expenses because are you selling bitcoin right because you can't sell your stock anymore because
that's you know you're diluting bitcoin per share and are you selling bitcoin uh you know you're
slowly going to bleed out bitcoin to service the public company that's not a good scenario right
do you have the internal capabilities to be able to trade derivatives and get some yield
on that stack? Can you sell calls? Can you sell puts, collect that premium? Can you do put spreads
and call spreads? And can you play that game without risking your stack and actually generating
value for your investors? And I think if you can't do all those things, then it's a stupid trade.
It doesn't make sense. And even if you can do all those things, who knows if the market even
cares. Maybe they just rather own Bitcoin directly. So we remain with the thesis that
I can protect your Bitcoin because I can have multi-custodial relationships. I can have it
in cold storage. I can have insurance at each custodian. I can have an overlaying insurance
product that protects the Bitcoin generally. I can trade derivatives around it to generate
cash flow to offset corporate expenses. I can do capital markets transactions like buy my stock
back to add Bitcoin per share and modestly leverage against that stack. So there's a lot
of tools that you can pull from. And I think if the public debts are set up like that, where you
have the flexibility to use your stack to borrow against it, where it's not leaned up right out of
the gate, where you have a senior secured convert against it, and it's sitting in some account
control agreement where you can't touch it, you can't post it for collateral. Because as you
probably know, if you're going to trade on Darabit, you're going to trade with these
market makers like a Falcon X or a Gemini, you got to post your BTC. And if your BTC is stuck
in an account control agreement, you can't post it. So you can't trade derivatives around it.
So you're kind of like stuck. So if you've got the right setup, I think it can make sense. I
think a lot of people get nervous about holding their Bitcoin. So I can hold it and protect it
for. I can trade derivatives around and then I can do capital markets transactions to add Bitcoin
per share. If I can do all that, then I think you've got something, but you also want the asset
to work, right? Underlying the whole thesis is the asset's got to work, right? And so you've
got to believe in Bitcoin and you got to start there. And that's, we started there and then we
built it behind it and you know it has been a difficult asset for the last
call it three months right started to break a lot of people's confidence in the asset and i think
that's a you know that's a topic worth exploring is we got all these tailwinds but something's not
right yeah a lot of tailwinds it was interesting because we posted um it doesn't make sense to a
of people what's happening obviously the administration you mentioned the sec the
bureaucratic morass that the industry has been subjected to for for many years seems to be
behind us we want to be the bitcoin crypto capital of the world executive order around
a bitcoin strategic reserve you have banks announcing it seems like daily at this point
some sort of integration with Bitcoin focused products, allowing their customers to buy trade
and ultimately use Bitcoin as collateral. The ETF, despite the fact that Bitcoin was down
however many percent in November and for much of this month, it still has net inflows
outside the U.S. You're seeing a bunch of positive headlines in relation to the mining industry and
uae and other other countries buying exposure to bitcoin and to your point just a lot of people
are sitting here scratching their heads like why why isn't the price reacting appropriately and
obviously you have um this confluence of events too where the price did run up to 125 000 we saw
looking at the on-chain data it looks like a lot of people have been holding bitcoin for over a
decade said okay market's liquid it's valuable enough i'm gonna take some chips off the table
famous so we had galaxy facilitate the sale of 80 000 bitcoin for some estate sale that was uh
demanded by um the estate owner who had passed away i'm pretty sure um and so i think we're
we're at this point where it seems like it's all systems go but the price is not it's not
uh reflecting it's not reflected in the price going up yeah if i were to you know do what you
just did articulate if we didn't have the benefit of being able to see the price right and i would
articulate all those reasons that you just articulated genius acts table coins on top of
all of that right and i said to you okay so start the year bitcoin was at 100 000 right
or trump administration comes in bitcoin moves 90 100 000 and i were to tell you all these things
that happened over the last 12 months, you would say, oh my God, it had to have doubled, right?
Something like it had all those tailwinds. But don't forget the efficient market theory,
right? As a TradFi guy, the efficient market theory basically says that all that stuff is
priced in advance, right? So that $100,000 price that you saw back at the beginning of the year,
right? That was pricing in all this great stuff that was likely going to happen because of the
position the Trump administration had taken. So you could have easily predicted that all these
things were going to happen. And some of them were delayed, like the legislation, you know,
you know, through the Senate has been slowed down. It's not going to get done before the end of the
year. And the SEC coming out and saying that it was, you know, going to get done before the end
of the year. That was, it's just not how the congressional process works. It's not that fast.
Right. But I think people were hoping for that. But so there was some stuff that was slowed,
but a lot of stuff happened uh and you could say that that was predicted back then so we're sort of
where you would have expected from a a tailwinds perspective to be right but then you have this
whole thing happening under the surface right which is the banks are scared to death of this
asset i don't know right and i i truly believe that because if you just play it out right banks
rely on deposits, right? Deposits, that's their fuel for everything they do, right? They got to
get spreads. They got to collect that money and then they got to lend that money through all
these different mechanisms, right? Whether it's financing someone's jet or financing someone's
home, right? Or financing someone's apartment complex that they're developing, right? That
spread is, that's their bread and butter. Then they have the prop trading desk and all other
stuff they're allowed to take from a risk perspective that's a little higher on the
risk spectrum but the bread and butter is that lending business and that lending business needs
those assets and if you can control your own wallet right and we've been now transacting in
bitcoin for a few months actively right because we got the big stack and we can move it around
between wallets and custodians and and places where we're posting as collateral for derivatives
trading it is so elegant and beautiful to move around right you get your wallet address you do
your little test of you know 0.0001 you send it over it's received uh you can see all the history
in that wallet that's ever happened uh right all open ledger stuff and boom sunday night at 8 p.m
i can move 100 million dollars from one wallet to the next i can move it from galaxy over to falcon
next. That's amazing. I've been operating within the confines of the banking system and the Fed
system since I started my career where we're doing wires. And I got to get my wire set up and I got
to get it released before the Fed cut off and the bank's internal cutoff policies at 4 p.m.,
even though the Fed's closed at 6 p.m. And then I'm stuck from Friday at 6 till Monday morning
when I can't really do anything.
And you're financing transactions
where it's really difficult for me
to send a wire over 5 million bucks, right?
It's getting a ton of scrutiny from the bank
and it's going through this whole process
and I just don't even know when my wire is going to get out,
if it's going to be able to get there
for the closing of the transaction.
And so internally, we have all these procedures in place
to make sure we're set up for closing,
that we're wiring a day early so we don't mess it up, right?
All that stuff is out the window.
with Bitcoin, right? It's just such an elegant asset to move around. It puts all the control
within the owner of that asset. And that's a real threat to the banks, right? And then as soon as
the insurance starts to make more sense, right? And then you get the charters issued. So all
these custodians can exist without filing individual applications on the state level.
So you can get the federal charter and then those federal charters, although now you can't borrow
with the Fed window and you can't lend on those five charters that were issued to the crypto
custodians, eventually you'll probably be able to. And then it starts to look much more like a
traditional banking system, right? And Fidelity, you know, they're TradFi, right? They're within
crypto, they're TradFi, and now they have a bank charter. So they're in a really good spot. Seems
to me that they've already done a really good job at gathering assets within their brokerage
accounts so they'll be able to get gather assets within their within their crypto custodian
accounts and do it on more of a traditional system that people are accustomed to so it's a threat
it's real and i think i checked last week i think fidelia has something like 7.2 trillion in assets
under management so to your point yeah i can definitely bring it in and so and they span both
tradfi and crypto like they're in it they're in a sweet spot and they've been in bitcoin for 11
years now 2014 yeah abby yeah had them getting in so you know what they're doing and so you say
the banks are scared and as a part of the list of headlines that i listed off earlier was that
banks are implementing it do you think they are in an oh shit like this is happening uh bitcoin's
not going anywhere and so we need to basically stave off the the sort of native bitcoin and
crypto companies long enough while we implement everything so that we can capture some of this
market or do you think they still want it to go away i think it's it's the latter uh but they're
pretending it's the former and i'm i'm not a conspiracy theorist guy i just i see it happening
right they're they're out front saying they're supportive of it just like they said they were
supportive of the new charters but behind the scenes they're trying to kill it in every way
they can right lobbying against it fighting you know anyone who is in support of it and trying to
you know convince them that it's it's risky right the things they're saying publicly
right versus the things they're saying privately like they're literally telling
people that are fans of it that it's too risky of an asset, that it's not appropriate for the
masses to own, and there shouldn't be charters that help facilitate this because you're allowing
people to take risks that they don't understand. But publicly, they're saying, oh, we're building
blockchain. We're going to allow our FAs to buy it, right? So the disparity between those
statements that are happening in the public versus the private, I think that tells you
everything you need to know. They don't want to be the idiots who publicly were bashing it when
the train has left the station and it's probably happening, but they also want to slow it down and
kill it and be like, I told you so. We originally told you so. We tried to get on board, but we told
you this was risky and look what happened to MicroStrategy. That thing got crushed. Everyone
was a believer and that thing got crushed and you shouldn't have been owning that.
Right. So in hindsight, and they're really powerful institutions with tons of capital to be able to move stuff. So they can make these Monday morning calls when they were actually the ones on the field affecting the place. Right. They can say, oh, I told you, you know, MSTR was risky. You know, we brought the margin requirement up to 95%. That's why we did that because it was risky. It's like, no, no, no.
the margin requirement going to 95 is what caused the asset to go down and why you can now say
that it was risky and you made the right move i told you so it's like okay you were pulling the
puppet strings that made the puppet collapse and you said the puppet was going to collapse
so it's it's a lot of that so let's dive into this specifically because like we've we've been
talking uh offline um for the last few weeks and i think that's one thing that made me really
excited to have you on the shows because you've seen this you know how these large capital
allocators can use their large amounts of capital to influence things and i think everybody is
looking at micro strategy this year and going oh gosh this is this is terrible but to your point
about the margin requirements i think that was a a clear sign to me at least like hey they don't
like this why would they just ninja launch a massive increase of margin requirements overnight
and so what effect does that increase have on people that not only own mstr but are had at that
point been using it as collateral for a loan. Yeah. So if you were a longtime Bitcoiner and
MSTR came along, you said, oh, wow, now I can, instead of just owning Bitcoin, I can sort of
be a little bit levered to Bitcoin so I can own MSTR. I can still love my Bitcoin and own Bitcoin,
but I can also own MSTR and I can borrow against it, right? Because you can post it in your
brokerage account, in a margin account, and you can borrow cash against it and you can buy more
MSTR, right? So you can effectively use the bank's money to get more exposure to MSTR, right? On top
of the fact that they have the preferreds and the converts out there where they're effectively
levering their own equity to it by using the preferred capital to juice the equity returns
that you can get on the Bitcoin, right? So it was a great thesis for the Bitcoiners because
just modestly increases in value. It's a flywheel. And so I totally get why all the Bitcoiners were
really into that debt. And it also made them vulnerable because inside these big institutions,
you can see how much money you're lending against MSTR in the aggregate. You can say there's
10 million shares held of MSTR with inside JP Morgan. And you can say, okay, we've lent
5 billion against it. If we increase the margin requirement from 50 to 95,
you got to basically, people got to post, you know, $4.9 billion, $4.8 billion. So you,
you know, the effect that things like that will have on the asset and they, you know,
they called it you know a a risk department call right the risk department decided that they had
to bump up that merger requirement but that doesn't it doesn't make any sense it doesn't
reconcile with with anything that mstr was doing at the time or bitcoin was doing right but then
because you have so many bitcoiners that own mstr and people associate michael saylor with
Bitcoin, when that thing starts to come down, right? When it goes from over 400 to under 200,
you're sort of breaking people's confidence in Bitcoin. And I think that was part of
the overall strategy was to hurt MSTR, hurt Bitcoin, hurt the confidence and thesis in the
asset bring the vol back up right and then put this narrative out there that that seller could
potentially have to sell bitcoin and they own a large percentage of the bitcoin that's that's
issued so then start to panic people right and then it's selling begets selling begets selling
and that's that's how history always plays out no one wants to catch the falling knife no but
Let's dive into this too, the risk department too.
It's like, okay, our risk team has determined
that we need to increase the margin requirement
and just playing through the thought experiment.
Okay, what are they protecting their clients from?
Is it the case like a strategy goes down
and they don't want them to have to sell their positions?
But conversely, if that's your whole goal of managing risk
for your clients is to make it so they don't lose their assets
in the form of this the security of the stock the shares in this company like isn't increasing the
margin requirement doesn't that end up with the same goal because you're just gonna have to force
people to sell or post collateral and if they don't have collateral to post or to sell down
their positions that's the irony yeah yeah that's the irony the whole thing and and let's let's be
clear. They're not increasing the margin requirement to protect their clients. When a
risk department increases the margin requirement, they're doing it to protect their own balance
sheet because they say, okay, if we go from 50 to 95, that means the stock can basically go down
90% before we, 95% before we start to get in problems with the loans that we have out against
it right so if they move it to 95 they're effectively expecting a 90 move in the stock
right which that only happens if the asset collapses too and were they predicting a 90
move and in bitcoin down they're predicting it goes back to 10 000 right that just didn't seem
to be on the table. None of it seemed to be on the table, right? The stock was pretty stable.
Bitcoin, the underlying asset, was at the lowest vols it had ever been at, right? On a trailing
period. MSTR's volatility was declining, not increasing, right? You would increase
margin requirement when the vols go up because the higher probability of a big move.
underlying asset falls down mstr stock falls down didn't make sense yeah didn't make any sense
there's no risk there's no risk model or unless they have some ai bot that you know is predicting
things that no one's ever seen in their life which ai doesn't do that ai can only work off
data that exists that's why it's not a good predictive model right and you know that's
where you need humans sup freaks have you noticed that governments have become more despotic they
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What's up, freaks? Been seeing a lot of YouTube comments. Marty, your skin looks so good.
You're looking fit these days. How are you doing it? Well, number one, I'm going to the
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healthy dad but part of that is having a good regimen particularly staying hydrated making
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that's drinksote.com code tftc so i guess my other question is like how long is is that
just one shot is that like one arrow in the quiver that they have because i imagine you
bump up margin requirements uh to 95 and then anybody who was engaged in sort of using mstr
as margin to get leverage um you'd have sort of the books clear you'd find ultimately find
another equilibrium and then go from there people who were overextended get wiped out people who
were not overextended are fine you just sort of find an equilibrium and things can reset from
there or is is that how you view this playing out or is this like a sustained uh quote-unquote
attack for for lack of a better term i think it was their first not their first i think it was
one of the there are more public attacks on the asset uh where they thought they could really
have a you know financial impact and a you know emotional impact and the emotional impact you
cannot discount how powerful that is right people you know big bitcoin believers start to question
everything right is this asset subject to manipulation and you know am i exposed to
that and you know just starting to conspiracy theories swirling right has it been hacked is
there more asset out there than we than we understand like all these crazy things were
happening because they tapped into people's confidence in it once the confidence breaks
right because that's what all these things are right at the end of the day any currency right
what's the USD worth? It's worth what people are willing to believe it's worth, right? Because
you've got a huge leveraged balance sheet that, you know, if that was any corporation, it would
be bankrupt, right? But USD is the best currency in the world. So it's just confidence. And people
say, well, you know, Bitcoin is, you can't articulate what it's worth. It's just, you know,
digital a digital asset it has no actual value no currency has actual value like people who say
that are just missing the mark it's all confidence so jp morgan adopting that theory i think was like
okay so if we break confidence in it like any currency whether it's you know japan or argentina
right uh if you break that confidence in that currency then you damage the value of that
currency. And that's doesn't go away overnight. So I think that they took a big shot across the
bow, right? They probably got a leak in the boat. And then they kind of were in there trying to make
that hole a little bigger by saying, you know, going off the NASDAQ 100, going to get kicked
out of the MSCI, like pulling back, you know, pulling old, you know, articles and data and
statements and kind of making them in the headlines like that's part of that coordinated
attack like why why is an analyst at jp morgan talking about it being removed out of the index
and talking about mstr as a you know risky bet when he doesn't even cover the company like
pretty sure the analysts are pretty busy writing research and publishing on companies and doing
update notes on the universe of companies they cover. And, but yeah, he's going off on
some MSTR attack for a company that has no research coverage at JP Morgan, right? So it's
just, and it's at the end of the day, that move was detrimental to their own clients. They wiped
out billions of dollars of value in their own clients' portfolios, right? That was the ultimate
result of it. They basically attacked the stock by attacking their own clients because they knew
that they couldn't post the billion dollars of collateral. So I think it's just confidence,
confidence, confidence. And that was what they were, that's what they were firing at.
How do you counterattack this?
You call them out. It's the only way to do it. You got to go to the mat with them. I think that's
the only it's the only and a lot of people are afraid to do that right because it's a big massive
institution and people have exposure like we as a fund we have accounts with jp morgan right we
have accounts all over the street but we were prepared to get the phone call saying we're
gonna shut your account down right okay shut my account down i'll post about that too
right so i think that's the only way you beat them is you have to have a voice uh you have to
know what you're talking about right because if you're wrong they'll destroy you but if you're
right how do they really deal with you like as a tradfi guy i'm like okay i know enough to be
dangerous about how all of this works i've seen this in different asset classes for my entire
career, right? These big banks attack based on the knowledge they have under their umbrella,
right? There's so many examples of when banks have attacked hedge funds, right? Hedge funds used to
generally custody all their assets at one institution until in the late 90s, early 2000s,
the prime brokers or the banks were figuring out that we see exactly what this fund's exposure is,
right? And they're my custodian, but they can use that information against me. And there are
so many examples where they did, right? There's a case out there where basically a fund got taken
down by a top five institution because they did a similar thing. They basically were shorting all
the stocks that were in that fund's portfolio, and they were, you know, smaller names, so they
could move, they could just lay on them and short them and short them and short them. And then they
wouldn't increase the margin requirement on those securities, because they said, you know, they're
under a lot of pressure, the vols up on these things. And, you know, we got to increase the
margin requirement, the fund was like, well, we don't have the capital to post for that. You are
our prime broker you know that because we keep all of our assets with you and the response from
the bank was okay we'll come back to you with a solution their solution was we will bid you for
your entire portfolio below market right now you have that bank that's short and this is a public
case you have that bank that's short you have the hedge fund that is long all that stuff and
And the bank to cover their shorts, if they can buy it down here, they can pay below what they
shorted it, that's great trade for them. And so they can basically go to that fund and say,
you can't meet your margin requirement. We'll bid you for your whole portfolio. Just take you out of
it and fix your problems. And so that's what happened. They ended up taking them out. They
shorted it up here. They bought it down here from the fund funds wiped out. And this bank had a
great trade, right? Shorted it, took the positions from the fund, wiped the fund out, bought it all
really cheap, wrote it back up, right? That, I mean, that, that happens all over the place.
And that is why all these funds now have multiple custodians, right? We keep your shorts in one
place to keep your longs in another place to trade your derivatives in another place
no one can see no one has transparency into what your overall positions are so no one could take
advantage of them and that was sort of what people started learning uh through your instance like
that and they're really manipulative but if you read your prime brokerage agreements
most of it's allowed because you ultimately give them control when you take on margin
right so that's the problem well that was another detail that emerged from jp morgan's posturing
towards mstr and the margin requirements too is that there was a bunch of people stuck in that
trade who said well if you're going to raise the margin requirement to 95 i can go over to fidelity
or someone else who has not raised the margin requirement and i would like to do that can you
please send my shares over to this broker and um they were not able to do so in a timely manner
which all you explain this would signal that um they didn't have the shares because they were
locked up in in short positions yeah yeah and we'll we'll never know exactly you know the nature
of those shorts but there there are multiple incidents that i know of where that happened
And one very specifically, where I got all the details, I think you're familiar with a similar one, where this guy who had a pretty decent position of MSTR at J.P. Morgan, when they increased the margin requirement, he's like, I can't meet that, but I'll move my stock out to a place that doesn't have margin requirements that are that ridiculous.
So at that point, it's in J.P. Morgan's interest to not let those shares leave, right?
Because that kind of hurts their thesis.
And two, maybe they can't let them leave
because they don't even have them
because either they put a short on themselves
or they're short it
or they lent it out to some hedge fund on the street
that's willing to pay for it
and they can't get it back.
They don't want to recall.
You know, these prime brokers never want to recall.
They never want to have a track record
of recalling shares that they lent out
because then whoever put that trade on,
it blows up that trade
at the time when they want it to work.
So they basically just...
try to hold out as long as they can and try to find stock from other places to be able to deliver
out on behalf of clients that are requesting to do transfers so there's a lot of information to be
to be gleaned like them not being able to deliver the stock out regardless of the reason the exact
reason why it tells you they were either they were directly short or indirectly short right
they're short the stock they don't have the stock to deliver so it's curious increase the
margin requirement don't have a stock to deliver that's the those two things paired together plus
you know making statements you know down the line after the after you already wounded the animal
right after the ship has a leak and it's starting to sink and then you start to hit it with you know
msci stuff and nasdaq stuff it just it it's just too much right just too much to to be a
coincidence yeah like where was that statement a month ago when that msci report came out
didn't do them any good then no right and do you think um
they had it again how do we get out of like do you think people just need to move their
their money off of jp morgan if they think this is a believable thesis that they're attacking
this and sort of just take their control of the margin specifically away from them
yeah i do i think people should move their stock out of mstr out of jp morgan move their mstr stock
out um i think you know places like fidelity or you know i think they although they are a trad
phi institution uh at the core and at their founding i think they are one of the more uh
you know crypto intelligent uh firms and i think they could benefit from the you know the big guys
taking a hit so it seems like a good safe place to go because they seem to be on the right side
of things uh as opposed to the you know more just deposit collectors like fidelity is less as less
of a deposit collector it's a brokerage firm right so the deposit collectors are the ones that are
most vulnerable so i think those are the places where you move the asset out if you want to fight
this this trend right because although like we spoke about the banks are publicly saying that
they like blockchain they like bitcoin the systems that they're building that's not really blockchain
right that's not a you know decentralized network it's a it's a centralized network
it's a centralized blockchain that they control they're calling a blockchain to be on trend
but it's just a ledger system that jp morgan will control and it has some blockchain technology
right uh right whereas the bitcoin network is a true decentralized network uh and so
that they they want they they want to say they're in favor but the things they're doing
are just just like everything else they've ever done control the asset control the knowledge
right be this be the center of the system so you can control the system and so you can
you know be aware of what's on the system because it's part of your network right it's not it's it's
totally disingenuous to to suggest that that they're adopting you know a a true true blockchain
philosophy of a decentralized network that's not what's happening at all there's some smart
contracts and loans yeah it's bullshit it is it's funny it's old is new again in this space digital
digital uh ledger technology is back and back in the news back in vogue um but it's right it's too
interesting topic too which is like it seems clear to me i can go back to like the system
needs to be recollateralized with better collateral bitcoin is the best collateral
most pristine collateral that's ever existed scarce uh divisible as you mentioned earlier
trade 24 7 365 it is not collateral like real estate or even shares an individual
company which come with their own um which come with their own hair uh it's very hard to move a
house the value of a share in an individual company is dictated on how well that business
is being run and how profitable they are at any given point in time where bitcoin is just it's
It's just this neutral reserve asset that is relatively simple and dumb,
which is a good thing.
And many people, myself included, think there is room for Bitcoin
to intersect with traditional finance,
I think particularly in structured credit,
where you use Bitcoin as collateral to help you buy a house
or get a loan to invest in a business or something like that.
And I think that's sort of the period we're in right now is we're sort of feeling out where this intersection makes sense and who are actually the good actors within this intersection that are going to build products the right way that actually give individual Bitcoin holders value and increased utility of their Bitcoin to actually be able to do things in the real world.
And that's where I think the J.P. Morgan positioning towards MSTR and Bitcoin by extension is really unfortunate because there's massive opportunity here if done the right way.
And it will come down to, I think everybody's going to be hypercautious of rehypothecation and how these products are structured is going to be very important and should determine whether or not you interact with them in the first place.
but there is a way to do it right uh particularly with like multi-sig escrow uh and being able to
validate that that your bitcoin is where you think it is at any given point in time like there is a
way to do this 100 will it happen and who's actually going to drive that yeah yeah we've
we've seen that because we borrow against our bitcoin a little bit to buy our stock back
and if you you know you can enter into all these different uh structures of these loan agreements
and like you say multi-sig account control agreement where you have a wallet right and
you have the capital provider and you have the you know lender right because because it's an
alternative market the capital provider is not necessarily the lender right you have the lender
who's getting their capital from you know some bank or some foreign institution or whatever
and then they're lending it to the borrower and but you should have an account control agreement
That's a tri-party between the capital provider, the lender, and the borrower.
And that Bitcoin should be locked in that account, in that wallet, and not move.
And as you said, you can monitor the activity in any wallet address, right?
So there are very good ways to do it without letting that Bitcoin get down to that capital
provider and then him re-hypothecating it to 10 different parties because he re-hypothecates
it and then they re-apothecate and then they re-apothecate it and as the person who's bitcoin
that actually is you sort of start to lose control over that right you could have a bankruptcy you
know 10 steps down the road and your bitcoin could fall into that bankrupt entity and then you say
okay yeah but i could get it back from the person who lent it to them but then they file bankruptcy
or i get back to the person who lent it to them and then they file bankruptcy right so it's you
know once the cascade of liquidations or bankruptcies start to happen it's very tough
i mean they were unscrambling the bear stearns you know situation in the lehman brothers situation
right lehman for 10 years right bear stearns that is why they saved it right because they knew that
unscrambling those eggs when you have all those different swaps and collateral agreements and all
that mess out there in an operating institution could take 10 years right so same things for
bitcoin you know once you have that network out there if you're just allowing that bitcoin to
move around and allowing those assets to move around you could right you got to do it the right
way you got to do it smart you got to learn from the you know mistakes that trad spy has made over
the last 100 years so account control agreements but you got to have a sophisticated party who
understands right what they're negotiating and so maybe it's like legislation where you have
smart contracts that just dictate how it works and you literally prevent rehypothecation stuff
like that where you could protect the system a bit because like when you lend stock out when
you lend bitcoin out you lend one bitcoin it gets rehypothecated rehypothecated rehypothecated that
that that bitcoin can be sold 10 times short short short short short short right so although
there's only one bitcoin it it cycled through the system and created the selling of 10 right
and that happens in equities um so re-hypothecation is dangerous and i'm posting as collateral when
people can do that is is dangerous right they're not aligned with the with the lender with the
borrower no and there's no lender of last resort in bitcoin too somebody was i mean we learned this
in 21 22 at three arrows gemini and their yield products genesis lending it out to people obviously
block five celsius ftx go down the list like there is you got it a very high potential i mean the
counterparty risk isn't worth it at the end of the day that's like i'm not even sure how you get
your hands around what the counterparty risk is when you can re-hypothecate because you don't
even know who ultimately has it yeah and that's what like these tri-party agreements i think they
need to be table stakes for anybody yeah doing it should be industry standard they should be
that's what like companies like unchained debify that's what they're working to bring
to the market in the private sector but that's my biggest worry as
the banking sector is at least feigning interest in in getting in and are they just gonna
import their rehypothecation engine in equities onto bitcoin and their end clients are are none
the wiser and i think we should demand the transparency and the sort of products that
that are possible with these multi-sig trilateral agreements like if you're not
using this like i'm not going to use your product right right right and i i'm not i'm not sure how
you would draft into legislation other than preventing it but do you do you really want to
you know have bureaucracy you know dictate the terms of these agreements i don't know the answer
to that but i i think people have to be wiser to the different mechanisms and why hypothecation
re-hypothecation is dangerous uh and all these like when we started negotiating our agreements
the the most clear uh like tell about the value of re-hypothecation to the people who are lending
us money against our bitcoin is that if you allow if you do it in the aca uh it's uh ten and a half
percent interest if you do it such that we can uh hypothecate and rehypothecate it we'll do eight
and a half percent interest right so as the consumer you're like oh i don't care what they
do with it no i don't want to pay the other two percent right i want to pay like 40 percent more
or 20 percent more that i don't really care because i'm saving the two percent on a on a big
asset i'll i'll i'll save the money right but in that two percent is a message right which is what
are they doing with it that they want it so bad that they'll give it to you for two percent less
right and that's that's where you got to be wary if they're if they're if they're making more money
than that which they are otherwise they wouldn't give you that discount then how are they doing
that and how is that gonna hurt me yeah right as as the borrower and so that that's the message
yeah it's a very strong message that people don't pick up on either and to your point about
legislation um i don't think it needs to go that path either i think it's going to be more
dictated by the market like you need something like a fidelity the brand cachet there's a
fidelity um to step out and say hey no like this is how we're doing it yeah this is the way to do
if you're pledging bitcoin as collateral here's where it's going to stay and here's how it's
going to work and you can validate that it's not being re-hypothecated um that is i think the ideal
path for forcing the market to to adopt this what i would deem to be i mean she's objectively
safer market structure yeah what uh we're ending the year here it's december uh 22nd this will be
released on 29th so leading up to um new year's eve uh obviously it's been a year of uh
of scratches bruises punches to the face for the bitcoin market what are you looking forward to
in 2026 do you think we're going to continue on this trend or you think the tailwinds are simply
too strong that um the punches have been eaten or we're getting back on our feet and 2026 is
looking like a good year how are you viewing uh bitcoin in 2026 so i there are still more
tailwinds right also because of the efficient market theory a lot of them are understood and
probably probably priced in right but i think the one that's not priced in uh is you get
legislation through senate right and you have a true framework where digital assets you know
hopefully specifically large digital assets like Bitcoin, you know, maybe Ethereum will fall in it,
maybe Solana will fall in it, where there is just a very defined framework for them to exist within
the system. And once that happens, I think there will be more broad adoption, right? Because at
the end of the day, there's still a very, very small percentage of the world consumer that owns
bitcoin very small you know outside the u.s you know there's i don't think there's any country
that's above five percent uh right and the u.s is is still you know arguably between 15 and 20 for
any ownership of any digital asset whatsoever uh so there's still a long way to go but i think the
catalyst that really gets it going and breaks all of the naysayers is a massive buyer and there's no
more massive buyer than U.S. Treasury and treasuries around the world. If the legislation
goes through, I think that'll happen. I think there will be, you know, right now U.S. can own
it. If they seize it, they don't have to sell it, right? New Hampshire, same. So, but if they
actually acquire it, right, as part of a reserve where they're saying five, 10% of the treasury
value should be in digital assets or Bitcoin or whatever, then that's massive buying, right?
And then other jurisdictions around the world will follow, right? That's just the nature of
the beast. And then you should really start to see the assets stabilize. If the legislation
happens in Q1 or Q2, I could see that happening in Q3 or Q4. I think that's in the administration's
interest. It's in their interest financially, personally. And that's a large part of the way
this administration works. And then I actually think it's in the interest of the country and
many countries around the world because it will stabilize their economy. I mean, you can get rid
of this whole inflation uh disaster all this currency debasement right if you if you owned
one usd in 1920 right by 2020 it lost 96.6 percent of its value like that that's shocking
right that's when you look at inflation that way you really understand what's happening and
if you have a fixed asset uh then you can really stabilize everything and i think if we can get
there that's when we go to the next level like that's when this asset can really move uh and i
don't think that's priced in okay strategic reserve market structure it's i mean it seems like
the uh the tailwinds of that the light tailwinds are beginning to bubble up i mean the uae
stepping in i think don't have any hard information on this but just perceptively looking at
some of the headlines and having been at conferences around the world where some
government officials attend it seems like everybody on the geopolitical stage at least
is sort of looking uh behind their shoulder and others and saying okay who's going to be first to
do this and that's another bit of black swan positive tailwind as if you have some country
it's like okay i'm not going to wait for the u.s i'm going to go first and the environment as such
like the the pressure to do that is rising i don't think it's going away i mean the thesis
is there i mean argentina they they've right they've been chasing their currency for the
benefit of their citizens for decades and this could be a really quick fix for them to just
stabilize it right instead of making your currency based off of gold
like peg it to bitcoin it'll work yeah you can just peg it to bitcoin well they're starting
can't be more volatile than their currency you can see like they're starting with bitcoin mining
i know there's government initiatives to um survey how mining can can be incorporated into
their electricity system down there who knows what happens with venezuela um obviously tensions
arising there but it's a very oil and gas rich nation if you have the madura regime fall um
whether it's naturally yeah the will naturally or some regime change uh who's going to replace
them and are they going to be looking at the state of the country and saying hey we can use
these energy assets and bitcoin to sort of get ourselves back on our feet quicker that would
not surprise me um yeah i think all these these factors and these variables are just
are pointing to somebody's somebody's got to jump at some point because the incentive is too strong
yeah the thesis the thesis is 100 there someone's just got to make that jump and
i agree with you that someone should make that jump before the u.s because the thesis is stronger
for other countries like uh potentially venezuela if the regime falls or when the regime falls
uh and then countries like argentina like it's it's a no-brainer but if the u.s does it first
it makes it so much easier for them because then it's stabilized right if they're the first to jump
in it's a little more dicey right but if the u.s does it and then it starts to be a real trend
and then if every treasury around the world owns some of it i mean then you have a commodity that's
parked right our treasury is going to sell it yeah right then you just bring you essentially
like suck up the float and that starts to look really interesting and then you can't manipulate
it as much right so you know now you can swing it around i don't know if you call it manipulation or
whatever you want to call it but for an asset that's 1.8 trillion dollars you can move it
around with a few billion which that's that's probably going to change uh once you have
treasuries uh start to suck it up yeah yeah we need to uh move into the deck of trillions
cent a trillion market cap yeah to make it so you can't move move the market with billions
yep right this has been incredible where can anybody who's so curious learn more about what
you're up to um learn about m3 yep you can follow us on x um m3 digital uh and then uh we're on
instagram and we're on all the other socials as well but i think our majority of our presence is
on x and you know i post a lot about this tradfi stuff and the the way the two worlds are starting
to integrate together and the the good and the bad that comes with that and this is going to
be interesting to watch it play out uh over the next 12 and 24 months uh whether this works or
doesn't work it's going to be really interesting there's going to be a lot happening uh overtly
and covertly so well that's the uh that's the beauty of bitcoin at the very least no matter
what the price is doing it's always very interesting so yeah we'll be uh
marty i really appreciate you having me no thank you for coming on i was gonna say i was just gonna
say we should do this again at some point next year do a little update see how things are
progressing agreed there's gonna be a lot to talk about there is all right well you uh you enjoy
your week the end of the year and uh we'll see you in 2026 sounds great happy holidays all right
Peace and love, freaks.
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