TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #705: The Fed Can't Save Us This Time with Dave Collum

Episode Date: January 19, 2026

Marty sits down with Dave Collum to discuss his annual "Year in Review," covering the historic market bubble and looming financial crisis, the breakdown of trust in institutions, demographic collapse, AI's double-edged impact on society, and the conspiratorial undercurrents shaping modern geopolitics. Dave on Twitter: https://x.com/DavidBCollum STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBz Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bit.ly/4pOv2L4 Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ SLNT https://slnt.com/tftc CrowdHealth https://joincrowdhealth.com.tftc Salt of the Earth: [https://drinksote.com/tftc](https://drinksote.com/) Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter [tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/](http://tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/) Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

You've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free. When you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts. So it's all acting like safe haven. I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. Sorry, I had to fuck up your podcast.

And here's Dave, the most undependable podcast guest in the planet. I don't know. I think you're pretty dependable. Yeah. Yeah. How are we doing? Error 404. Error 404, yeah. Great title for this year's. Well, I thought it was actually going to be an error 404.

I almost I almost didn't write it I was very close to that I quit several times so um and and it there were a number of reasons potentially why I had computer problems in the summer which made it hard um I find the world profoundly confusing taking my shoes off in case you're wondering um actually i podcast my underwear just to feel special um and then i got into it with a zionist that was no fun and that sucked ball so no that's never fun no those guys are punks yeah it does it does feel like everything's breaking though it does it really does and i'm bummed uh i'm not bummed but like nick shirley coming out uh i think on the 23rd probably too late to sneak into the letter but i think the year ended with a crescendo of fraud being unearthed

what do you think of who do you think he is he's a front man right he didn't do that himself i've seen the series yeah apparently he was in the in the uh white house earlier this year yeah right that's suspicious isn't it yeah i think the memers you know the 2024 election i gave the memers huge credit for winning it because trump was getting the crap kicked out of them and and the populace could just lose heart and then dilly and these guys would go in and come up with a meme it says yeah i'm voting for the hillbilly and the felon right you go fantastic right and so they just turned every single thing the democrats did into a farcical mass and so i give the memers credit for that election and uh at some level um but but they

were probably on payroll that was probably trump figuring out i gotta i gotta get the memers oh yeah i mean it was i mean there was an explicit part of that strategy with the podcast and stuff like that oh yeah oh yeah the the podcast strategy was explicit but i think was definitely implicit behind the scenes and maybe explicit to an extent in terms of tapping the memers on the shoulders explicitly but like implicitly they know that people are going to watch these podcasts and put memes out there well but i think they might have been on payroll actually you think so i hope that's i can you hear me wait a minute hold on hold on oh god is something coming through to you too no oh i was all of a sudden getting um a delayed feed i did have twitter spaces yesterday

and all of a sudden it started playing um and i'm getting this voice i go wait a minute is that logan in there or what where's that coming from um so so i really don't think i don't think it's i don't i'm not even sure we can possibly understand the world in a way that we used to think we did at least nothing i mean it was all predicted too right the signal to noise ratio is going to get completely out of whack actually um carl sagan predicted in the mid 90s right about netscape time um he said that we're going to get to the point where it's just the world's just going to be this mindless bunch of idiots because they're not going to know what's true and and so he really called it nikola tesla called the the internet in 1926 he said the world's going to be

surrounded by this big basically global brain yeah no and how do you how do you anchor into reality uh if at all well i saw a meme video is this all a meme are the videos memes uh good question depends how long it is i guess i think maybe we're living in a meme um i saw one that someone posted and he said all i did was go to chat gpt it said watch all the videos of person a in person b and make me a funny meme video and and it was like a minute long and it was so good and i'm going oh you gotta be here so i'm gonna try like um i'm gonna try like um i gotta ease into it carefully to find out if there's some trigger but uh first i'll start with like lindsey graham give it a big sloppy wet one to netanyahu i want to see if i can get that if that then we're

going to go into sort of the m you know r zone and see if i get limsy doing other things with with netanyahu um and and then i realized that the fact that i could potentially do that means that we're all toast oh yeah we're all toast there could be a marty bet you know dave column doggy style meme right i mean now that you'd hey be careful what i know it just happened what you letter into existence it just happened i just did it if you do that i will hunt you down and i will put lindsey graham on you yeah well i mean this is something you talked about the letter too it's like these technologies they're double-edged swords but they really accentuate the golden age of propaganda too i'm hoping they're double i'm worried it's just one edge

ai do you use ai more than google now do you skip a google yeah so so google at one point looked like it was an insurmountable moat although i argued with a colleague that that was not true his argument was they have two million servers like okay a hedge fund could buy that so that that just doesn't cut it um but they certainly look like they had a moat now they're fighting for their lives google could could be the yahoo of the modern era right remember when we search with yahoo yeah yeah i mean i was very young but i do remember and and so now google could be the next yahoo um so i go straight to grok instead of instead of google yeah i think google does i think they're positioned well for ai gemini is really good i use i use antropics models i use

claude because we're actually like automated i don't even i can't even keep up with all of these i know the name claude but i've never i've i've i've really not begun to explore ai what i do not want to do is use it to create content i still want to use it as a replacement for google i don't create images with it i i think the images are soulless one thing i've noticed is um i'll read you know how that you know how the the google art that the the ai art at first was kind of cute Now it's just soulless crap, right? It's just slop, right? Although watching Maduro and Trump in their underwear doing a dance in the Oval Office, I got to admit, it was entertaining.

But I think the problem is that I'll open an article that I think I ought to care about, and I find myself bored. and and i'm wondering if it's possible that my subconscious is saying is detecting the the lack of humanity because it's an ai document yeah that i can't consciously see it's an ai i'm not you know they're supposedly your tells but you know they they tend to be very formulaically written right very well organized let me uh let me find the um the title to this youtube video i actually watched it the other day um it's put out by where is it i have it in this chat how many videos have we done this is probably our seventh or eighth and are you real i am real i think i am uh the art of the problem youtube channel they released a video i believe last week or the

week before called the ai paradox and what you're describing is like they go into sort of the math behind llms and like if you have like a distribution of potential paths that one can go go through a human who has the ability to create new creative thought has almost infinite paths where llms since they're trained off of thought that's already been thought uttered and putting the text on the web they they have very narrow paths which they can actually um follow and so to your yeah i one time when I was in a zero-hedge debate against Steve Keen, moderated by Fleckenstein. I made reference to squeegeeing the drippings off the floor of the internet. But the problem is, so someone took a handwritten 10 digits, zero to nine,

handwritten, and then put it into an AI program to recursively recreate it somehow. and they not only degenerated but they became identical and and and then i realized i had this interesting epiphany the markets now are really computers recursively responding to computers and one could make the argument that it is now generating just complete slop yeah yeah i could totally see that and that's like the i figure what they call it in the ai like the problem once you get to the point where there's no new data being introduced to the llms and they're just using each other's slop as training data completely degenerates to your point so i have to teach a double course load this spring and um i used to get fantastic scores and then we entered the era where anything

you say offends someone and they think that that's just unacceptable and then that same era occurred when the students thought that they had the right, I don't think they have the right even, to email anyone that they can get to, right? And so they would complain to the dean or to the chair or to the provost or to the president, right? And so I stood up in front of, I started sitting in front of the class and say,

look, if you Google me, I'm Google toxic, completely Google toxic. I fought two union movements and they smeared the shit out of me. So you read about me, I'm just Mao on steroids, right? um and it's now it's even worse so um and and i said you know you could send the chair an email you could complain you could send the dean you could send the president but you could also just walk in my office and we can chat and we'll both be better off for it and and and then the next day

the chair walks in my office said he got a complaint so i i the next day in class i said look you know i i don't quite know what to say now someone complained okay i don't remember saying anything offensive but i do open up with the description of why i'm toxic and the chair at one point said well why not just start and i said you don't know what it's like to walk into class with with an internet that says now now it includes you want you want a good one now it includes the president of the national jewish association who i've seen with trump on stage called me a holocaust denying nazi I called I call him a pig fucking liar after that um I didn't actually call him a pig fucking liar

I once had a lawyer tell me so don't don't don't call anyone something that's provable or disprovable so um so call him a douchebag call him a call him a weasel um don't call him a liar and so what I said was I would never call you a pig fucking liar because I could not defend that and statement entirely um and then i suggested that you take up a hobby like bukkake like harvey weinstein and then i said that uh alternatively we could have lunch or maybe you could and then i put a meme up that says go fuck yourself and why was he calling you a holocaust alert uh because they were going after tucker and i got caught in the crossfire so i did battle with ted cruz and Laura Loomer and Mark Levin and Victor Davis Hanson really appalled me I thought he was okay

guy he obviously is a whore excuse me I should use a more vague term um he obviously is in cahoots with the Christian Zionists and I'm not anti-semitic I'm not even anti-Israel although I'm getting closer to the latter um because I'm just so fed up with their shit they've lost me put it that way i was totally agnostic saying look i'm not getting into that fight fight amongst yourselves and then they picked a fight says okay okay whatever um but it took me a while to stop staggering i the blows were had me sort of reeling and it's a little disquieting to watch a senator stand on stage and hammer you yeah it is it is very odd the uh the relationship between the politicians and the nation of israel specifically it's not odd it's very explainable yeah they're

owned they're all owned right and that's what bothers me right i i i i don't have a problem with supporting israel the country i have a problem with the fact that they're doing their israel first america second sorry guys that's what it looks like you know and call me an anti-semi i'm not an anti-semi but you may be a pig fucker the uh no that's where i mean i'm sure you've seen the uh the clip of uh what's the name greenblatt the adl guy talking about always monitoring um monitoring uh u.s citizens right right and larry allison there's a charmer um and so uh so i you can make all sorts of arguments for supporting israel um i don't like the ones being made so i'm no longer a fan i'm just you know i think they whacked charlie

kirk i think yeah i think the evidence is pretty put it this way i i believe the evidence is very good that it wasn't that lone shooter crap i think the evidence is very good that eric is a wackadoodle of a higher order and so then all of a sudden you go i don't even need to know the plot to know that that some big guys are up to no good and then you say okay so the the wife's laying in a puddle of blood in the garage that the husband's sitting on the couch drinking a beer who are you going to talk to first you have no evidence he did it but you're going to sit his ass down under the bright lights and say by the way we find your wife in the garage in a puddle of blood why do you think why do you think charlie needed to be taken out um interesting question it might

have even been a showcase might have been say don't turn on us right it could have been they actually made it made sure that it looked bad um it could be you know it's it seems to me if it was really to win over the youth or deal with them because of the youth problem, they blew it because I think they've ended up looking terrible. So there's two questions I keep asking over and over and over. Did they blow the COVID story? And did they blow the Gaza story? So COVID, if their goal was to sort of optimize and get away with the stuff that we shouldn't know about and make us think that they did the right thing. They blew it. They completely blew it. If anyone's listening to this, if you still trust modern medicine, you need a fucking CAT scan. I consulted for Pfizer

for 20 years. I'm not totally uneducated in this topic. You need a CAT scan if you trust modern medicine now. You need a CAT scan if you get another flu vaccine. They don't do any good, and they can slip in a new technology, and you can find yourself in the ER with a heart attack. yeah you just don't know you don't know i mean objectively with the flu vaccine they've had a negative efficacy from i think that's correct i think uh if you read moth in the iron lung no you got to read it i i gotta cut once in a while i get a book i go oh that's a must read book moth in the iron lung uh the whole polio story's bullshit the entire polio story's bullshit the moth in the iron lung you can you can not believe it if you're odd but if you read that

book you'll come out believing it um it turns out it was arsenic poisoning from ddt well first it starts with arsenic and then they went to ddt um heard something this morning that rattled me a little bit fdr got polio when he was 39 and the moth in the iron lung makes explains why the kids were so susceptible so i don't quite know how fdr got it at 39 but what it does is the arsenic and the DDT rot your intestines, and that lets various pathogens, more than just one virus, get to your spinal cord because it goes right past your intestine. And so the kids were really susceptible because their spinal cord sticks out a little bit in the young age brackets. And so, and poliomyelitis was a paralysis. It was just a symptom. That's all it was.

And at the exact same time they started spraying arsenic in the exact same place in the world where they started spraying arsenic, polio showed up. And they started to sense it. And they were called anti-arsenicals or something. They had a name for them, just like in COVID. So the question is, did they blow the COVID story? They didn't blow the polio story. The world still thinks polio was the greatest moment in modern medicine. I think it was a hoax. I think people know it. But if you shoot down that story then holy shit right that's a narrative that's the you know us save the world from tyranny in world war ii narrative right you don't know you do not want to let that story go and so and i'm even willing to give them that one but but i i i and then i

replayed a ted talk i watch you go holy shit that makes sense now um and then the other questions didn't if they overplayed the the the october 7th israel story um they thought they had moral capital um they didn't have anywhere near enough moral capital just for what they did but but is it possible they just said look here's the deal 10 years from now no one will remember and we're going to have what we want if we don't give a shit and we've done much worse as a nation the united states is so much worse well then i mean did you see pompeo on stage last week no talking about history like we need to make sure the history of october 7th is written by us who's us that's a great question but it's uh i don't know it's just very uh very flippant and how

we've heard like the history is written by the victors and who knows what the actual victor davis hansen apparently yeah um but he was saying he was saying as it pertains like october 7th like we're going to write the history there's not going to be yeah but i don't know who the we is and all that yeah right and and by the way it is completely trivial to make the case that there was a stand on order. That turned out to be the, I wrote about October 7th. I wrote a section on Israel. I left on the cutting room floor

because I was too punch drunk from fighting Levin and Ted Cruz. So I wrote about it and I intended to and I thought, oh, you can kind of tight rope walk along and you can do it. And if you do it right, then no one will get mad. And then I go, no, they won't. If I say I got gluten in my bagel, they'll get mad. Get over it.

I don't care. Call me an anti-Semite because my bagel's got gluten in it. and and so i wrote about it and and it turns out you can you can make a compelling case that there's a stand-in order in israel using israeli sources exclusively israeli sources yeah i mean one of them uh is in the bitcoin space now efret who was oh efret i've had a number of chats with efret yeah yeah and and and she was the first one boy did she have gonads the size of cantaloupes she stepped up like two days later and said this story is all wrong this story's all wrong well the egyptian intelligence told israel hey it's coming

you know get out of the way right there's a problem here the guy who moved the concert to the border moved the troops away from the border you know by the way if i had asked you two years ago three years ago whatever if i had asked you hamas drops 800 guys into israel how long would it take for israel to clean up that mess you would say what five minutes yeah i mean Someone described Israel as you can't walk 10 feet without seeing some young guy with an AR-15. That somehow Israel just blew it. There's tons of articles explaining how badly Israel blew it. No, they didn't.

And once you get inside, you don't run around for eight hours rampaging. Yeah, that was the weird thing. It's the response. It's not weird. It's eight hours. Well, do you believe the stats? if you want to call that a holocaust denier then i'm going to deny that holocaust you don't know the stats it could be as bad as they say it could be very little happened there's all sorts of it

could be the hostages were living in a motel 8 getting getting doordash and they release them you just don't know because the lying is so compelling and again i'm sure there's people are pissed at me fuck you i i just don't care anymore i do not care anymore but i mean you've been saying that for uh six years since we've been doing these episodes maybe seven i don't know well um but i've stayed off of israel until a canadian intelligence guy told me you're trying to understand the world and you're ignoring israel you'll never figure it out if you don't pay attention there's a guy who lived in israel and and so he gave me some reading material and i go oh shit and so i read it and i in you know meersheimer steve walt the israel lobby that's a must read

if you want to understand. It's a good story. A guy named Ilan Pepe, who wrote a book, I-L-L-A-N-P-A-P-P-E, wrote a Palestinian-centric book. So you say it is biased, no question. But it didn't seem like a screed. It seemed like he tried to get it right. You know, you can kind of smell screed. And he He described the sort of the evolution of the Jewish state starting in the 1920s, stuff I didn't know anything about, and how Jews were moving to the Gaza area, and we'll just call it Palestine. They don't like me to call it Palestine, but that's okay. And it was okay. It wasn't crazy, but it was causing some tension. and then there was this one fateful moment which poppy didn't make a big deal of but i think was a

huge deal the brits it was kind of a british protectorate and and so the brits make these stupid rules draw stupid borders you know they fucked up everything they touched in some ways they civilized worlds in some ways you know it's kind of a mixed bag um they took land rules which in that part of the world's kind of pseudo sort of marxist light where the the village owned the land and they changed the rules to private ownership the next thing that happened money flooded from europe and bought up all the land what a shock this is my shock phase this is the 20s yeah yeah this is my shock phase right here and um and then all of a sudden that's when the squeeze started right because what the european money was way bigger than the palestinian money

and so and did the brits change it because of european money saying change the rules we want to go buy it right and he probably didn't actually go deeply into that topic but i that may have been an absolutely profound moment in the history of the region yeah i mean you mentioned meersheimer i thought his appearance on tucker last summer was one of my favorites he's got balls the size of bowling balls i mean he and and walt on the other hand is silent i think walt couldn't take the beatings which i totally understand meersheimer's out there just fighting he's like dave smith with a phd well he was big on uh the ukraine stuff too right in the beginning he's very important when i wrote about ukraine meersheimer was big uh greenwald was big uh

max blumenthal is big on both right so i find about 40 people who are writing honestly about ukraine um it's hard to find that many people writing honestly about israel but there's plenty of palestinians who don't like them that's for sure yeah um suffrakes healthcare open enrollment has started it will roll through the end of january opt out of traditional health insurance which doesn't care about you it's impersonal it's expensive they deny increasing amount of claims premiums are going up you don't have to live this way you can opt out i opted out four years ago and joined crowd health i've been a crowd health member, a very happy CrowdHealth member for four years. I've had two children, a couple of health

events in that time period, and CrowdHealth has been there. You pay a monthly fee, you contribute to the crowd. We were paying $1,800 on Cobra as a family of three. Now we're paying around $900 a month as a family of five, and that's with CrowdHealth and direct primary care. You can opt out of health insurance. Go to joincrowdhealth.com slash TFTC. You're going to get $99 a month for the first three months if you use the code TFTC. Joincrowdhealth.com slash TFTC. So freaks, this rip of TFTC was brought to you by our good friends at BitKey. BitKey makes Bitcoin easy to use and hard to lose. It is a hardware wallet that natively embeds into a two or three multi-sig. You have one key on the hardware wallet, one key on your mobile device, and Block

stores a key in the cloud for you. This is an incredible hardware device for your friends and family, or maybe yourself who have Bitcoin on exchanges and have for a long time, but haven't taken a step to self-custody because they're worried about the complications of setting up a private public key pair, securing that seed phrase, setting up a pin, setting up a passphrase. Again, BitKey makes it easy to use, hard to lose. It's the easiest zero to one step, your first step to self-custody. If you have friends and family on the exchanges who haven't moved it off, tell them to pick up a BitKey. Go to bitkey.world. Use the key TFTC20 at checkout for 20 off your order that's bitkey.world code tftc20 well there was a big there was a big focus

on tucker in your letter this year why why that because i got beat up because of it so it would have been a story of just how fun it was but then what happened is it it then spun out of control when i made the mistake of basically paraphrase quoting george patton in which i said you could make the argument we should have the mistake i said is saying the word hitler i should have said fascists a jewish friend of mine said dave anything but hitler but fadden basically got the war and i essentially paraphrased him almost verbatim um which he said i hate to say this but it i realized that we we we should have fought stalin instead we picked the wrong guy to back we should have fought Stalin, right? I did a podcast with Dinah West, who wrote An American Betrayal.

And in the podcast with her, I said, well, you know, the Jews might not agree with this, but one could argue we should have fought Stalin, not Hitler. And she said, well, I am a Jew, and I do agree. And then she attacked me. And I go, what's that about? Well, she gets beat up. She's gotten beat up a lot. I think she was just scampering away from live fire. I forgave her. I was I was disappointed then Victor Davis Hanson went at me made three important points all of which were wrong wrong wrong here's a historian who I can demonstrably show is wrong and he kept making them and he kept calling me out I go Victor I don't trust your motives now and then people started sending me emails saying he's been doing this shit for years

this is you your opinion on before was wrong i thought he was a great guy they said no you had that part wrong then some guy wrote a blog picking on victor and it wasn't a screed again i i hate screeds i don't need to hear screeds i like to write them but i don't hear um and he basically said that victor's arguments were so disingenuous they were just not honest arguments so i had to take victor down point by point by point um laura loomer uh who's it uh mark levin who tucker counterattacked pretty hard um um i referred to as a a rab i refute to him i think i referred to him as human adjacent and and a a rabid bobcat in heat i think i called him and that he'd be selling floffles on a street corner if he wasn't pro-israel 24 7 um uh ted cruz i

described tucker eviscerating him in an interview i don't know if you saw that interview that's a must-see interview tucker just i watched that one he you would never want to be taken out by tucker if he decides to go at you you are dead meat because he has he has the linguistic skills and He has the knowledge base to tear you. And he made Cruz look terrible. And so I referred to Ted Cruz as the state senator, the senator from the state of Israel. And then I referred to Laura Loomer as the master of click baiting. And then I shortened it to master master baiter.

And then I said, we know what you are. We're just trying to figure out the price. And I've heard rumors $7,000 for every happy ending. And that is, in fact, the price that supposedly Netanyahu was paying his influencers. That was loosely verified, right? I think so. Nor do I care at this point. I'm willing to lie.

If they're willing to lie, I'll lie. But I'm trying not to lie, but I don't lose a lot of sleep. And someone I picked on Gates, a copy editor, all my shit's being bound by Bob Moriarty. And a copy editor said, I don't think you're totally fair with Gates. And I said, well, my quote's correct. and then i gave him like 10 points of why gates is so hateable and i said there is no chance i'm cutting him one millimeter of slack is it bill gates bill gates bill gates yeah he used what i said was he used the word vaccine and reduced population in the same sentence and it was

unclear what he meant now i can make the counter argument i can say what he's saying is with vaccines you don't have to have 20 kids to have three survive and therefore you don't have to have 20 kids right and therefore you can reduce the population but that's it wasn't clear what he was saying his father's a famous eugenicist wrote books on it yes and so i said not not giving him the break because he's also a douchebag and so uh epstein level douchebag and um so my copy editor was saying now i think it's vague and it's not clear what he's saying here and I'm going, I don't care. He said, reduce population and vaccine in the same sentence, which is exactly the way I phrased it. Um, but it was much shorter this year. Cause I ran out of

gas. I ran out of time and I've run out of patience for not being able to figure out what's truth now. And I I'm trying to figure out, um, I had to go through 17 years of urine reviews this year because moriarty's binding all of them on his dime he's paying a copy editor to copy edit them and and prep them on his dime and i get the proceeds i mean how do you so so so it's an estimated 3 500 pages so i was gonna say it's got to be three volumes at least it's it's 15 volumes oh so you're gonna do individual well there are 300 pages a piece except for the first couple of years so 9 through 12 is a volume 13 14 is a volume it turns out 21 where i don't even know how i did it 550 pages now this is not computer printout pages this is book pages but 550 book

pages it's three vibes but i'm not counting those three so it's actually 17 volumes by that model and I don't remember I don't know how I do it I don't I get in this writing mode and I just get in this zone starting around September and then just you can't get through the shell I'm just I'm just there I'm paying attention

and nothing else in my life somebody who suffered from writer's block for the last two months I envy that ability because well I don't have it now so don't envy it now because I really did I was just unable and then I realized you have to write about Tucker

you can't leave that shit out there uncontested you've got to write that and i said you've got a great story on finance just leave the other shit on the floor and so the stuff i think is fun like what i notice is i know i'm rambling here but what i notice is um shocker i know well it's it's better it's better than the guy you sit there and you get monosyllabic answers from and you're trying to figure out a price i'm out of them um i reading the 17 years i can see trends that i never would have noticed and so i can see like one thing that's really noticeable is in 2015 which i focus on in this year's write-up in the finance section 2015 according to legends of finance we were staring into the abyss yet again i mean we're talking greenspan sandrock and miller

Howard Marks, famous, famous guy saying, we are so fucked. How did we do this again? How did we do this already? It's horrible monetary policy. And by 16, they were talking about the horrors of NERP and ZERP and all that shit, and how we are just going to have an apocalyptic finish. And then I show the returns over the next 10 years, and they're ridiculously good. and the rhetorical question for which i have a very firm belief is did they get it wrong or are we that much more fucked and my math and and i've i do in a podcast i challenge people i said look come at me if you don't agree with what i'm saying but i think we are so far out over our skis now that that you know it's like oh my god you know there has been an earthquake

in california 200 years ago move sell your house get the fuck out of there right yeah well because it's coming well is that what precious metals are telling us right now that's the question what do you think i think something's definitely going on um so you don't think it's just a mania meme thing no no not at all i think i hear that i think there's a mad dash for these hard assets by big money yeah i mean yeah i don't know i know it's not dave it's not dave and marty no but i know i know you've talked you've been on shows with tom and you've talked to him but uh luongo tom yeah tom luongo yeah it's his whole theory that we're trying to break away from the city of london i i tom is so knowledgeable and i know i've asked a lot of people about the city of london and

there's some real smart guys who talk like tom i don't understand it yet i asked tom if there's some like one book I can read to get started or something. But there are some really smart guys who talk about the city of London. I asked Steve Hanke in two podcasts, actually, who's a currency expert. You all know Connected. Steve was the advisor to two presidents of Venezuela.

You think his phone's ringing off the hook right about now? And I asked him about the city of London and this idea that they're sort of a financial powerhouse. He said, no. he said he said new york's 90 of the world's financial system i don't even pay attention to the city of london yeah so so who's right i i it doesn't mean steve's right doesn't mean tom's wrong but i i just don't know i don't know regardless if you believe in the city of london um theory i think i think there's definitely something going on i've always said i've said

this for a while i think you've been following it too i think japan's always been the canary in the coal mine first to do crazy quantitative easing monetization of so yesterday yesterday in the twitter spaces the japan carry trade came up i remember it was about a year ago when both their long-term and short-term rates started climbing and now they're 30 or something like three and a half percent i mean that's ridiculous and after about four days of market turmoil everything settled down and everyone said oh the carry trade is now over and i go no no you have a 20-year carry trade where people speculate with free money and then raise rates raise short-term and long-term rates that much and not have teeth flying around the studio right yeah that wasn't

it so how are they holding it together there's got to be a carry trade disaster out there i imagine that's why i think people are flocking to these how are they keeping the balls in the air I have no idea. Is that maybe other central banks flooding the zone without telling us? No, maybe they're swap lines that are out there that we're unaware of. Or maybe it's just they're just hard-coding computers to say don't worry, everything's fine. I don't know. I don't either.

But I do know the Japanese carry trade, which, again, people borrowed at zero interest to speculate on huge scale, and now those interest rates go up. There's no way that there's not fatalities. there should be corpses in the street well i think that's the big question particularly with silver like are these i saw td had a big silver short trade they got blown out um td td td asset management td uh i think it was uh my old fraternity brother was ceo of td asset management i i didn't know he wasn't a douchebag i thought he was just just you know like the other 40 clowns i lived with td securities they're all derived from the same i think they're all spin-offs yeah um so he runs a family office now whatever those are um and so they got blown out on a silver

trade what happened so and uh close uh td securities on wednesday said in the model portfolio update publication that it closed the short silver position after prices hit its exit level at 93 dollars and 15 cents they got it they had to have been hurt by that one yeah but the question is are they magnitudes right but remember in 0809 i wrote about 0809 in 2002 and everyone says oh you know too early is wrong i go fuck you you know if i if i predict the dow's going to drop 100 points and i'm you know two years early i'm wrong if you predict the entire world's going to implode into its foundation, like building seven in 2002. And it takes five years, you're dead, right? So one time, Paul Kudrowski said, you know, too early is wrong. And I sent him my 2002,

May 6, 2002, if you want to be precise, write up five pages on why the banking system was going to collapse. That'd probably be true beanie for fuck's sake, right? And, and I said, was I too earlier was i wrong and any he he writes back to me says you are brilliantly correct and so the only thing i got wrong was i thought jp morgan was going to go down too but i predicted ge and all that shit and and it's on it's on the internet i posted the email unredacted on unmodified unedited on the internet date was sent to rick sharon goldman sachs he can attest to uh you can attest the authenticity if someone wants to really challenge it and um and and yet it took five years

even though i wasn't doing the math i was just reading shit by smart guys well that's i mean i think that's the big question with like right now like is this ramp up in gold silver platinum copper prices uranium streaming too is it a product of something blowing up on the back end or is it a recognition that we're going to this multipolar world and people are simply or both or both yeah well one so my point that i totally lost track of was that when it finally started to break one of the early cracking noises where you're on you're on ice all you go you hear this crack and you go what was that right i tell i as a parent i can tell you i was terrified my kids would go out on a frozen pond yeah i i read them the riot x so many times

about how you go from being fine to dead in five minutes um and um and in the first cracking were a couple internal hedge funds at Bear Stearns now the real estate market had already rolled over a year earlier I told my class in March of 2007 middle class with like Tourette syndrome right just blurted out to him I said I think the banking system's about to collapse now and they all looked at me like, what are you talking about? I said, yeah, I actually think the system's just going to go kaplooey. I think we're right now on the cusp. But the bear insurance hedge funds were like, they said, oh, $600 million hedge funds. I said, who cares? That's pocket change. But it wasn't pocket change. Because the risk is not some event. Those are triggers. The risk is the

overvaluation overvaluation is always the problem the market is not equipped to handle any sort of um concussive blow and when it's overvalued it's it's like a jenga tower well that's a big question how big is the air pocket between what the values are perceived to be and what they actually are right now uh well i think here's the crazy and this is why i call it the complacency bubble i I don't think I'm first to use the term, but I'm first to squeal at the top of my lungs like a rabid bobcat in heat. And I call it the complacency bubble because do you think there's anyone who thinks the markets are stable, that they're in good shape, they're fair value, they're not insane? Well, if we actually have a productivity boom driven by AI and the tariff regime is working out well. and how many how many decades will that take i have no idea yeah that's a theory out there

oh so in the twitter space yesterday brendan ike showed up and that was great because i wanted to talk to brendan ike we've had phone calls but i wanted to talk to brendan pre-ipo netscape founded mozilla firefox wrote javascript founded brave right this guy knows silicon valley this guy knows his shit and uh and and we were talking about this shit now here's what i'll tell you is Most people, you can hear so many people say the valuations are insane. I don't, don't give me this insane shit. Give me a fucking number.

Give me a number, don't be a pussy. Give me a number. Insane could be 30%. The number I give is 200%. And it's real easy to document. And I'm not pumping my year in review, but I gotta say it. If you read the financial section of my year in review, you should shit your thong.

I left it all in the field this year. I said, OK, if I'm never going to write this thing again, you better get this financial part right this year. And there's no one who doesn't think we're screwed. But here's the problem. They think the Fed's going to save us because they've always saved us. And I don't think they're going to save us. I think they're going to stand back and say, OK, they got their fingers in the dikes. forget liz cheney move on um well you you've phrased it i think like creative demolition

not creative destruction that's right what do you mean by that well it they've just they i needed a new word demolitions creative demolition sounded good um if you you here here's here are the merits of a bubble and you know the drill i mean let's say let's hypothetically say bitcoin's bubble it generated fantastic improvements in technology right the blockchain the evolution that working through the details and then of course it could be and i don't want to turn this into a bitcoin podcast but it could be the foundations of total authoritarianism don't fall for the katherine austin fitz stuff not bitcoin maybe maybe crypto by the way you should check my Twitter feed. A retweet I did was some guy who claims to have been Europe's first

Bitcoin something or other. And he wrote this very long, it's probably my highest tweet because I did it this morning, very long discussion of the mathematics of Bitcoin that I'm not qualified to evaluate, but you are. And he talks about why the Bitcoin price must mathematically keep going up and i know you're going of course i that's what i'm rooting for but he he makes the case as it's not not mathematically possible for it to keep doing it that there's a there's a ceiling coming and this guy looks like he's a devout hodler if you uh um i uh am very sympathetic and uh like uh almost wholly convinced of the power law the power trend adoption curve that bitcoin's on the clarify that clarify that basically what we're experiencing with bitcoin

is is similar to uh the internet network adoption which power which followed a power trend power right trend right um and you can uh you can put the price on a power trend too and basically it's it's how networks are adopted right there's a name for that law what's the name for the law there's a um it's not godwin's law that's calling in hitler um there's there's a name for that goodwin or something i don't know um the guy's name who wrote this creed you ought to read it for no other reason to make sure that he's a nutcase rather than trying to tell you something important his name is justin bones b-o-n-s he says he's europe's oldest cryptocurrency No, that dude's a quack.

Oh, is that right? Okay. I didn't even read the whole thing. I just know that he went to a lot of trouble to write this statement. No, he was like a big blocker back in the day. He wanted us, like the whole Bcash, Bitcoin Cash, Roger Ver. He was like part of that. Oh, really?

He's all butchered. We were going in his direction. He's been saying Bitcoin's failed for like a decade now, and it's gone up in pricing. Okay, okay. Well, I wasn't telling you this to tell you you're a douchebag, but rather just to alert you to this existence of this statement. So in any case, so the silver question is, is it a big enough market to cause trouble beyond just those who are short silver? Right. And and it could be because the Bear Stearns hedge funds were not very big looking either. so if so so you know an m80 is not a problem unless you're standing in nitroglycerin and then

it can become a problem and uh and so so i just don't know um do you think do you think this really is a you know the comex the scheming the shit is finally broken and silver's finally price discovering is that sort of the way you describe it i mean i'm not gonna pretend to be an expert on like the paper trade and those theories but i mean there's obviously price discovery going on right now and i do think it's legitimate um central banks and yeah and i listened to uh the forward guidance podcast today uh with this guy alex campbell he's ex commodities head at bridgewater and he was putting together his he's been putting together a silver thesis for like the last two years he was explaining it and you factor in um supply above ground and then the

industrial use cases of it and um the demand for it as a reserve asset uh particularly from china like you think you think the tier one asset designation there's there's not only a tier one asset designation basel 3 but there's also there was a decision out of india that said they can now use it in various retirement accounts that uh they're now legitimate so that those accounts can diversify into commodities yeah so there there are geopolitical moves to bring precious metals into the investment world well i think it's not only that too you just look at the just the debt the debt system as well you need a a natural hedge to that if you're looking at Not only the debt system, but SWIFT and the sanctions and the confiscating of sovereign assets.

By the way, those sanctions against Russia could turn out to be the blasting cap. They could turn out to be the sanctions against Russia and confiscating their assets could have changed the course of history in ways that whichever dildo in the Biden administration, administration dingleberry in the biden administration um came up with that should potentially be um scolded yes that might have been a disaster i think we'll look back and that'll be a marker is maybe the definitive moment the dollar reserve system as we knew it ended right yeah i was in my fourth turning section i wrote a fourth turning section And I went through a dozen, dozen. Grant Williams and Adam Taggart were talking about fourth turning. When I first read fourth turning, it turns out I didn't know that Wall Street was already all over it. So I think it was in 2009, I wrote about fourth turning, maybe 2010. and and um and and i got an email from a friend uh einhorn who oftentimes i mentioned him but

won't say who he is but he said what do you think of the fourth thing i said well i only have done so there's that um and it's just that now i gotta read it and then i got an email about two weeks later said well what do you think and i got oh fuck now i really gotta read it and um and apparently tons of hedge fund men for passing that around and talking about it in a big way and it's a pretty good model it's holding up pretty well um and and you know um you know strauss and how really unbelievably prescient sort of predictions in 96 that it would come around 2010 it would probably be triggered by a financial crisis but you know then the shit would start hitting the fan in a big way and boy did the shit start hitting the fan there are cracks in the

foundations of your money governments around the world are managing record debt the same way they always have by debasing their currencies and the effects are already showing up across markets in his report the debasement trade james lavish explains why the shift is reshaping portfolios why gold tends to act first and why bitcoin often follows as the implications become clearer on january 28th james joins unshamed live for the age of debasement a presentation and q a expanding on that research and exploring what this environment means for long-term investors if the playbook no longer explains what you're seeing this event helps put the pieces together register now and get early access to the report at unchained.com slash tftc that's unchained.com

slash tftc sup freaks this rep is brought to you by good friends at silent silent creates everyday fair day gear that protects your hardware we're in bitcoin we have a lot of hardware that we need to secure your wallet amid signals that can leave you vulnerable you want to pick up silence gear put your hardware in that i have a tap signer right here i got the silent card holder replaced my wallet i was using ridge wallet because it secured against rfid signal jacking uh silent The cardholder does the same thing. It's much sleeker, fits in my pocket much easier. I also have the Faraday phone sleeve, which you can put a hardware wallet in. We're actually using it for our keys at the house too. There's been a lot of robberies. They have essential Faraday slings,

Faraday backpacks. It's a Bitcoin company. They're running on a Bitcoin standard. They have a Bitcoin treasury. They accept Bitcoin via strike. So go to slnt.com slash tftc to get 15% off anything or simply just use the code tftc when shopping at slnt.com. Patented technology, special operations approved it has free shipping as well so go check it out it's completely exact did you see this another stack came out today the uh the average hiring age last year in the united states no i haven't seen the average new hire age of the average new hire last year what do you think it is it was well what's the old one give me the old one uh i don't know the old one well you gotta know that it's gotta be a trend right good point that's a good point um uh i would

say that in the last 20 years it's probably gone up by a factor of five by five last year was 42 hiring age first job average new hire it's a new hire it's new hire me meaning a new job or the person's first job i think a new job you've got job openings what is the average so they're not hiring the kids then it's the gist yes that was the point i'm getting to it seems very clear there's this generational divide and the young ones are they're gonna slice our throats that's gonna be a mankin hl mankin moment where he says sometimes you just got to get out the knives and start slicing throats um i made a strong case about that this year too where i said look you've got a generation here who who you uh gave iphones turned their brains to mush

You then got them deeply into debt with student debt that was to get a degree of no value, promising them that that's all they needed was a sheepskin. The debt's not dispensable. I've several times underscored the fact that the student loan, the student debt took off like a scalded dog in 2008 and asked sort of a rhetorical question. Is it possible that student debt was used as a monetary policy? And I think that's a good question. Just like, you know, they said we need a housing bubble to get us out of this thing. Right. They said, look, we'll create a housing bubble and that'll liquefy the banking system. right i think they use student debt to liquefy the banking system in 08 trillion five a trillion five yeah because you take your student loans obviously you pay for

your tuition that feeds the middle management which brings money loans loans create money yeah right loans create money so so this generation meanwhile the men of this generation been told that they're evil that everything's their fault if they should somehow make the mistake of going to second base without asking for a signed contract um that they that they uh that they will somehow be prosecuted that they are misogynist and they and being a man is is is a horrible thing um and and so now you've got men who who one of my grad students who's a sweetheart of a guy very impressive guy never dates anyone for very long but he's not a hound dog he just it's just like no i don't need it um he says the dating sites are all liberal women

and and and i said and that's because all the conservative women get grabbed off and married and he said yeah probably so he was dating a chick who was like super liberal for about six months And then he got a job and she starts talking about moving with him. He said, no, we're done now. And and the liberal women are just just appalled at the men because the men now don't want them. And Adam Carolla really said it great. He said, you got to watch Adam Carolla. Keep an eye on him.

He's really doing a great job. He's awesome. I'm trying to get him on the show. Oh, that would be a big win. Way better than column. I can tell you that much. Adam pointed out that, look, we empowered women, which is great, but we didn't empower them to be assholes. Right. So now they go, oh, you know, now we get to do this.

No one likes that, though. Right. No one no one wants you to run around just being a bitch. We were seeing that in Minnesota with the ICE protest last couple of weeks. Right. Right. The chick who got shot in the face. Yeah. Right. So so we empowered women to be assholes. And and the fact of the matter is, you know, that doesn't really work well. One of – if you look at male, female – I have a genetics major. I love evolution.

So I look at humans through a hunter-gatherer lens because that's what we evolved as. I was walking through to get into the mall with my wife, and she just all of a sudden stops cold and starts fondling a blouse. I go, guys, don't do that. We don't fondle shit. You know, when you go grocery shopping, do you read the ingredients? No, you just throw shit in the cart as fast as you can get through. you're hunting mastodon for fuck's sake right you're really trying to get out of that get the kill get out of there it's a dangerous place the savannah's not a place to hang out get the thing

get through the checkout and get out of there and your wife's sitting there looking over like this staring at shit reading the ingredients i go you don't know what that even means you don't know what that shit is and um and so um so the women um the way they succeed historically as hunter gatherers they've got a very difficult task they need to find a spouse and someone would say no we don't i go okay if you want to terminate your gene line and don't have kids but you know four billion years all of a sudden it's become a failure you just broke the branch of your tree and i'm not everyone should have kids but but you there is a reason why they gave us a dick you know and and um and and and and the way they've got this terrible task of finding a guy who's strong a protector a

provider who doesn't beat the fuck out of them right and that's that's a that's a knife edge that you've got to find and the way you do that is you tame the men using your your guile your cunning because because they can destroy you at will so you have to destroy their soul somehow you know and and tell me you've been married long enough you know what soul destruction can look like on a bad day and um and yet somehow they don't they seem to have lost that and they seem like no we just treat them like shit all the time like well they won't want to hang out with you yeah and that's gonna i mean that's uh a crisis that is uh that is building as well in the back so now when they get to like 35 40 no partner no kids and then 40 more years left and you see

the videos on youtube and stuff where some chick is hotter than a pistol at 40 and she's going i can't find a guy. I go, well, based on your face, it's not your physical attributes. Let's start there. So then what happens is this generation who is now beaten like a rented mule, this generation has been beaten down. They have no chance of buying a goddamn house. You know how they say we got to lower rates so that they can afford houses. There's a plot in my year in review that shows that over the last 20 years, the average age of first-time home buyers is not only now 31, but it rose linearly actually over the last 40 years, I think the plot is. I can't remember. Many decades. How's that? It's risen monotonically. And I'm going, let me see if I

got this right. The average age is getting higher and higher and higher, meaning people can't afford to buy first houses. While the interest rates monotonically dropped, and you're telling me lower rates will make houses more affordable how is that possible the point being is as you lower the rates the price the house not only goes up but appears to go up higher or their jobs are just sucking linearly worse or both yeah i mean people right there that that's that's the first time that's the age first time home buyer and it what's it what's the the beginning year i can't see it from my vantage point what's the first year in that 1980 or something let me see it is

there I go oh look at that chart right there go look at that right that's student debt look at that look at the GFC you telling me that student debt took off just by chance that's monetary policy

for fuck's sake this started in 1981 so for four decades while rates monetarily dropped which allowed us to to to crank on an economy hard by dropping rates the the average age went up you're telling me okay now we should lower rates to make housing more affordable it didn't work for 40 years then you have the home prices here right so the home prices don't race the dropping rates now

here's the deal so these guys have gotten fucked they're now deeply in debt they've they're they're earning 25k as a barista because they majored in sociology they can't get married of course male baristas are probably gay anyways but um they can't they then they then um um are now they're talking about lowering the rates and putting out 50-year mortgages tell me that wasn't a lead balloon holy moly that landed like a brick right um you know when the 30-year mortgage was invented this is entertaining it was 1930s yes right after the great to make cars houses more affordable yep right did it work i don't know um so in any event so now what we're going to do why would you why would you lower rates so low that they can afford it now

so that the boomers can get out of their houses without taking any kind of loss so they're now going to by going to super low rates they're going to make houses stay way overpriced so that this younger generation can yet again get totally fucked yeah because they'll own a house they pay too much for and then rates will find a way to climb because they will they will they flat out always do bonds become very expensive they'll get cheap again um and we're gonna hump up again well i mean going back to you asked me for a reference point for the um average age of a new hire in 2022 is 40.40 and a half years old so in three years went up a year and a half to 42 and like if you factor that into what you're just describing now it's like the

younger kids aren't even getting getting the jobs right to even be able to potentially buy a house that's going up and they don't want to get married so so that we got a 1.6 you know uh 1.6 birth production rate which means our demographics are sliding um i actually don't have a problem with I think in some sense, Japan leads the world by their demographic story being dealt with. So Japan now apparently is depressing because everyone's old. But they have muscled their way through the shifting demographics. So they're the closest to being done with the demographic downswing. The rest of the countries are just starting it.

And demographics is a big part of economics. Well, and to think that anybody's just going to be able to do what Japan did by weathering the demographic storm is a bit naive. cultural homogeneity that uh exactly culture that does not exist exactly you're not going to have ice battles in the street in japan no and um and i god the fourth turning is rolling it's right on schedule it is so right on schedule how bad do you think it's going to get is the question you know you're going to wish you could move out of the country you're going to i'm not leaving i'm not leaving i'm not leaving either i'm i'm too old for this actually just moved i don't know if you know this but i moved back home to the philadelphia area where i was born and raised

my wife was too getting closer to my roots back to the shire is is philadelphia area is it in the burbs or is it in philadelphia uh in the burbs my son was in philadelphia what part um you get a pen uh best i can tell it was in the most ghetto-y part imaginable we we took the wrong turn and we ended up in the philly hood pretty fast he's in uh either he's probably in fairmount by north philly i don't i don't remember all i know is i wanted to get him out of there my son's gay and he was hanging around a rough gay crowd you know too many drugs that sort of thing and so so I had a meeting in Philadelphia he's a musician I had a meeting in Philadelphia and I so I went down to the meeting and my goal was to get him out of Philadelphia so I basically said

here's the deal Philadelphia sucks hey living in the ghetto sucks and I said uh I said why don't you ask where anywhere you want you would like to live aspen deer valley you name it ski ski resort i don't care um i will help you get there help you get set up get out of philadelphia and he said okay my my elder said he said you are the whisperer dad that was amazing i said well i pretty much made an offer he couldn't refuse what year was this This is probably 10 years ago. He's now totally settled in. He's now totally behaved.

But I was worried he was going to become a junkie, actually. It's just the risks were too high. Philly was the per capita of the country for a while there. Yeah, so I wanted to get him out of there. So now he's in Boston. He's in an artist co-op. You want a good deal? He's got a 1,000-square-foot apartment in a beautiful neighborhood.

you can walk around all night there or near the convention center and um he pays 900 a month damn damn damn right the bank of dad is not as not as the bank run on the bank of dad is not as bad as it could be i'll tell you i i did i still help him he's actually ironically he's in philadelphia today because there is i shouldn't say this because the the the uh the uh the auction's not over but he thinks he spotted a early italian violin buried in an auction what is the uh what is the auction over i don't know i just know he went down to see the thing to make sure that he wasn't bidding on bullshit i wonder if um if my wife's been big in the auctions uh as well i think i know that the uh the auction house he may be at in port richard well this is this is literally

just a um an estate auction yeah it's not it is not teresia or anything like that it wasn't actually it's actually a fascinating topic building on what we were that's what like we were in the process of buying a new house we're in a rental now we got to furnish it you know it's much bigger than the rental and we've just been taking advantage how many square feet how many square feet um i don't know square feet six bedrooms but uh six bedrooms with an office okay so you're still banging your wife then yeah we got three we've had another kid since we last uh since we last talked as well really yeah jesus christ it's time to tie the tie the tubes no no no never never we just said we had a fertility crisis somebody's got to go to work you know

this is true but you don't have to solve it single-handedly well i'm gonna try i'm kidding no he's just like he's a state auction this is like weird like the kids don't want the the parents like heirlooms we're getting stuff on like pennies on oh that no so i i've been so when i was a kid i was a collector there's a collector gene i think i think there's some some kids just love to collect so i collected coins and stamps and i collected stamps from age 8 to 12 and sold my collection for 1400 bucks that's a pretty good that's a pretty good price tag back in 81 back in 81 and i told it turns i sold it at the peak it was the peak of the stamp market you want to see a bear market look at stamp collecting you can't find a stamp collector

who's under 80 years old at this point there's just 0.0 interest i've talked to dealers saying what would rejuvenate this market what would define a bottom in in in philately which sounds like sexually active people um and uh and they just don't know they don't see a generation coming so the very high-end stuff gets bought because you got boomers with money who still collected but um but i then bought a house and i went to furnish it and i started going to just garage sales and shit because i had no money after i bought the house which by the way after one year cornell i could buy a house back in 1981 even though interest rates were 17 why because they were cheap right um and then and then i started going to barn sales and stuff i started seeing

stuff i go really i can buy that that 150 year old chair for how many bucks right and then i i was gonna buy this victorian couch and then i decided against it and then i bought this pennsylvania dutch blanket chest i realize i'm a grunge guy i'm a i'm a i'm a painted furniture grunge guy i'm not victorian that's that's way not right for me so buying this one blanket chest was kind of a turning point for me so my house is filled with high boys and slant front desks and things like that 18th century stuff and it's worth a fraction of what i paid why i like it is it because the younger generations don't appreciate it because we're buying stuff i i like the old stuff because it's built better sturdier oh i can sell i can

find you a walnut 18th century walnut desk that is cheaper than the cost of the walnut that's how crazy it is and and uh and it is because the younger generation a has no money b is not forming households and c the whole country craze which was huge when i was young that the whole building a household was on the back of a country living craze. And so you'd open up, you know, better homes and gardens and you'd see, you know, furnishings with, with painted furniture and stuff in it. And, um, and, and, and so I was at a high boy, I was, I was at a Philadelphia antique show. Um, I'm seeing a guy named David Scorch. He was a very famous dealer, a very famous dealer, actually um and and i was looking at a high boy and i said i said you know back in back in you

know through three decades ago that high boy at a withington auction would cost three times that he says that's exactly right exactly right so yeah you can pick i see i see stuff sell at auction i can't believe i go oh my god my eyes are watering we just bought some 15th century like original sketches for dirt cheap I forget the artist my wife's doing that I don't know that market I don't know that market I now do

know the violin market better I bought my son a 1735 Carlo Antonio Testori violin I remember I think two or three episodes you had just bought that right and I and he went on

I sent him to Europe actually he paid for it I don't remember quite how. There's probably some bank of debt in there. And he traveled Europe for about six weeks. And the entire housing of his trip cost $2,700. He managed to live cheap. And hostels and stuff.

And he went to every dealer, every auction house, every museum all across Europe, just a nonstop tour. And one of the last two days, he went to a Teresio auction, which is the biggest auctioneer in the world. and uh and there was this violin he said this is the one right here and and he bought it and it's just it's a great great violin when i buy antiques what i notice is that the your opinion of the antique the day you bring it home either goes up or down it just it just doesn't hold fixed you think you got the right thing and you go oh look at the blemish oh that's been repainted oh that's been restored you know or you go oh that's just a fucking beauty and he this is just he thinks is just the greatest violin so that's good because he could be full of shit but at least he's happy

about it yeah no that's the um yeah it's it is uh it's if you're out there you're listening and you're looking for durable good stuff as dave just mentioned you may not like when you bring it home but i think you'll have a good success rate if you spend some time into it it was a great and i didn't get to use it because i cut the year short but but the the new president i think it's of sweden was the former ceo of ikea and someone posted the funniest thing they said we're now waiting with bated breath watching him put together his cabinet that's a good one that was a good one i put out a tweet the other day that got like 20 000 which i stole but people think i came up with this oh yeah whatever and i said if you're sitting in public and someone sits down next to you just

stare straight ahead and said say did you bring the money did you see rudy haven't seen sweet that went bananas he showed footage of erica kirk walking on a stage with fireworks and he says you know if i died i'd worry my wife got married right away but i didn't expect pyrotechnics i would that's right and and it just went totally viral and so i got the 299 000 and i i gave it one last nudge i said can we get rudy to 300 000 on this tweet but that created i believe that was the beginning of the erica kirk memes because after that my twitter feed was just filled with pyrotechnics and erica kirk memes what is your theory there oh i think she's totally mk ultra totally yeah i think she's when i say mk ultra for those who don't know how sick this world

is mk ultra is where they grab you when you're maybe five years old and they brainwash you and they turn you schizophrenic they reassemble your personality they torture you like a north korean might in a pow camp and then they they they it's it's a born identity and they train you to do and i think erica kirk was confirmed wasn't ted kaczynski uh ed kaczynski was uh charles manson may have been um um david berkowitz was part of a satanic cult kamala was uh kamala was a i think kamala was i i was i was i was bird dog in that story and then a person who spent three years studying mk ultra uh time magazine bureau head of europe uh her mother got nailed by it she found out and and so she dropped her job and started studying it and she said kamala

has all the traits and and the trait i see most that really jumps out at me i've seen in many victims including a couple i was on a zoom call i was on a zoom call with kathy o'brien you gotta you gotta get some of these guys on your on your on your on your call look and take notes um yeah i can get you their emails um so i was on a zoom call with kathy o'brien and juliet angle and and what you notice is they have exceedingly flat personalities and i had long chats with nick bryan who wrote the franklin scandal which nick's one of the most scholarly guys of them all studying this shit and i don't know if they all have it but i once watched a ted talk by a chick talking about why pedophilia is a sexual choice right it's just it's just a sexual preference

and i was watching her within 30 seconds i go this chick's been trafficked traffic doesn't just mean you were turned into a hooker traffic really means that cia quality brainwashing was involved so um so you watch erica kirk and they're just there's just nothing there there's nothing under the hood that makes any sense and and then it gets really weird so um I was going to write about Charlie Kirk, but it led back to Israel. And I was so sick of fighting the Zionists. I go, I don't need to write about Charlie Kirk. And then I had some rabid Zionist on my Twitter feed saying, you don't have any evidence that

Israel did it. I go, no, I don't have evidence. Or if I do, I'll present it on my terms at my time. And he just kept pestering me. I go, I don't need to deal with you, you shit. I just don't need this kind of crap. I watched Candace Owens battle. Like, oh, do I want to spend the next 15 years of my life doing that?

No. Do I want to be Nick Fuentes? No. And so I kind of backed away. I feel like a pussy. I actually do feel like a pussy. You got to decide what to focus your time on, right? That's right.

So Erica Kirk, everything's wrong with that story. And I think she knew he was going to be whacked. I think the marriage was fake. I don't even think they were married. um they did a podcast together one day and and and and they were taking questions from the internet and charlie says oh here's an easy one he says uh he asked two questions but the critical one was um what year did you get married now they've been married for four years if i asked your wife what year she got married she'd be able to answer that fucking question right especially

four years into it. My wife has now suppressed it. It's now a suppressed memory. She's trying to forget it, but it is 40 years ago as of this month. I'm not sure we're going to make it to 41 if you've beaten on me. So Erica Kirk gets asked, what year did you get married? And she goes like this this is exactly how she did she goes 2021 and charlie jumps right in and starts covering for and then she starts going well you know it's so chaotic and you know with all the kids and stuff and by the way erica kirk's kids are nowhere in sight i was saying where are your kids where are your kids they were props you think so well boot up a google and search erica erica kirk's kids, or Charlie Kirk's kids, and find one that shows a face. Everyone says, well, you wouldn't

want your kid's face to be on the internet. I go, well, do it with Candace Owens. You'll find her kids. And they're photoshopped away. There are no pictures. So there's these family photos where each is holding a kid, but their face is facing the wrong way. Always, always, always. There's one that's really telling where his daughter is in the front seat of the car and she's barely lingual she's like three years old she's talking but you know whether she's at the stage where she's just barely past the stage where only the parents understand her and and um and they're pulling up to the tp usa site and she recognizes she gets excited and she goes oh charlie kirk charlie kirk has your young kid ever called you marty bentz no no they'll call me by my first

name uh when they want to really get my attention but that's about it is that right oh they're ragging on you already okay but that's different that's not a three-year-old saying charlie kirk charlie kirk i and the kids are now missing i think they were a prop i think they didn't want to show their faces because you don't want to have to have them be their kids for the rest of eternity and everyone's saying hey you're traveling the world you're giving all these talks where's your fucking kids who's taking care of the claim is glenn beck is taking care of him what kind of clown show is this that's the claim claim is glenn beck has him right glenn beck has him oh yeah sure so i think erica was uh cia or massad brainwashed she was in romania when she

was 17 she was running an orphanage they got kicked out of romania for trafficking children this story just isn't holding together and you watch her her her memorial service she wiped the tears from her eyes eight times eight times i watched a video of a woman counting and saying here we go again eight times first of all there's no tears her eyes look like an ai right she's got the glazed look i mean this is this is the this is the mk ultra look this is the this is the you know flat personality these guys who've been abused you can be talking to one to one of them and you don't they you don't realize you're talking to one person there's nine others in that skull of theirs and they don't even know about the one you're talking to all these separate

entities it's a very complicated story they're schizophrenic they're induced schizophrenia and then they reassemble them and train them like you'd train a working dog so erica kirk they spider said well this young little damsel is looking like she's going to be a great bit of bait so then she goes and wins the miss arizona pageant so i ask a beauty pageant queen is there any chance some chick who's hot in arizona where you know you can't swing a bat without hitting a hot chick walks out into a miss arizona pageant and just wins that's like saying marty you know here's a violin go win the concerto competition right these women train their life to win these if you think winning a beauty pageant is just being hot in a bikini you're out of your gourd and she wins

what's that all about and so so then she claims she doesn't drink and hadn't dated and then all of a sudden you find out she was on a dating show she was on summer house too which is like some bravo and she also was was was part of a documentary about that was totally deep state what if the grid goes down and her mother's deep state her mother's completely deep state to the extent we know she is of which her mother her father charlie's parents none of them none of them have been in sight since charlie got shot none of them you can't find them so the question I'm watching for and people who are close to him

I've been watching very carefully to see if they give me a hint of this concern is how real is Charlie Charlie gets grabbed out of high school no college education some gazillionaire who's a vague person themselves

sponsors Charlie how many high school dropout types and also what I did read about they said he wasn't very popular in high school some guy sees a dick and says oh let's let's groom this guy to run the world yeah yeah to be honest i haven't been following like the theory i was pretty caught up in it exactly what happened but then like since that it's like okay

well so the problem the problem is is that it means that if i'm correct on all this crap it means it's a big geopolitical event it's not just charlie kirk getting whacked oh here's the funniest story of them all my brother confirmed these facts for me i wasn't gonna bother do you know snake eyes the movie no you're gonna love this you won't know what to do with this information this information will blow your circuits it's true 1996 or 98 can't remember nicholas cage makes a movie snake eyes yeah i saw the theory let me finish the story so snake eyes the lead character is shot in the neck one of the lead characters is shot in the neck by a guy named tyler the executioner tyler robinson it's on september

10th which i think whatever date charlie was shot that was the date and the guy who got shot was charlie kirkland some predictive programming right there and i i my head explodes i don't know what to know tp usa was registered as an organization in 2002 i didn't know that yeah pretty weird isn't it you want to watch an interesting twitter feed tpv sean who i have no idea what to make of tpv sean is this sort of british guy he's got kind of a britoid accent and what's surreal here so i have networks on twitter that are totally independent of each other so you got the fin twit and the hodlers and the various guys i also am highly networked with the pedo hunters the guys

who actually go after the pedophiles tpv sean has 307 000 followers he follows a hundred people i'm one of them and i'm going what the heck is that about but but there's all these guys like liz crockin and mike smith and stuff who've been tracking pedos like crazy full-time job and and i'm all connected up with them on twitter too and so i've got the the pedo hunting network on twitter and it's interesting because i've besides some hints and some podcast shit i've never really gone there i've been studying it like crazy i mean one of the things i realized when i finished writing my 2025 year in review is one things have made it so hard as i went down rabbit holes that i don't think were wrong but were so dark that i just couldn't i couldn't

turn around i couldn't breathe yeah there was there was a famous octopus murder where some guy was tracking tracking his brother who got assassinated and so i tried to retrace his steps to find out what he was studying and it turned out it led to all sorts of assassinations and all sorts of obviously intelligence-based stuff and then he ran into two other people who were tracking the same story he ran them independently and one woman had stopped and he said why and she she's he said why and and she said i just had to stop i just had to stop you could do this forever i get emails from a guy who's still tracking jfk murders twice a week

JFK murder he sends shit and I go let it go let it go buddy we can all can we all agree JFK was killed by what we will collectively call the CIA we can probably agree with 98% confidence that LBJ was in on it

and the details don't matter anymore at that point right yeah why was he why do you think he was killed oh there are so many reasons The central bank stuff, the nuclear – He had – there's a laundry list of why you'd want to kill JFK, including him promising to dissolve the CIA.

Yeah. And – Shattered to a thousand pieces, scattered to the wind. I think a good case has been made that Nixon was taken out. It wasn't Watergate. He didn't fuck up Watergate and have a scandal. The entire thing was to take him out of office. Yeah. And and actually, the guy who wrote about that, oddly enough, is Nick Bryan, who wrote The Franklin Scandal.

He wrote about that, too. And he did some ghostwriting, too. He wrote some other books that he wrote that other people's names went on. Starving author. And but but everyone involved was deep state. Everyone involved. The burglars were deep state. Bob Woodward, deep state. Bob Woodward wasn't a journalist. He was naval intelligence, right? So I'm on a podcast with a guy named Tony Schaffer. You can find Tony all over the internet. Tony's famous. You can see him with Rumsfeld and these guys. While he was on the Zoom call, I'm fact-checking him. He's absolutely nailing it. This guy is like Robert Maxwell, but he got booted because he was too

mouthy he he was too public and i was on the zoom call and i i asked myself i'm interested in child traffic and the influence on geopolitics because one can make the argument that all the stupid things being done are because they're being forced to do it because they're compromised right that that was the theme that i've been following for a couple years now and um and he starts talking about epstein i go yeah we kind of have a beat on who epstein was um i'm more interested in the the dark weird shit i said let me ask you a simple question tony i said i said clinton foundation trafficked children he said oh absolutely the evidence is above the fold true i asked him that question to test him

laura silsby got caught she got sent to haitian prison for trafficking children the clinton's had to bail her out yeah well and this is topical this week with hillary refusing to testify in congress on the upstate well they should they should do the goddamn steve bannon drill and send them to prison i think they are trying to hold her in contempt right now right but they won't send her to prison because that was probably a bad idea too you know sending ben into prison navarro i used to chat with navarro back when he was at irvine he's just an economist i'd swap emails so what all this is like zooming out 2026 in america obviously we're talking about a little bit the ice raids in minneapolis seems like we just bombed venezuela who knows what's

gonna happen with iran did we really bomb venezuela did we really i talked i was in dc on wednesday night funnily enough talking to some people we like we the tech we use to extract him or attack i had this funny feeling that he was willing to be extracted oh you look at the pictures it seems very clear there was some predetermined agreement like right well Well, because for one thing, if you're Maduro, it's like, OK, let me see if I got this right. I I cut a deal with the Yanks and they somehow set up something that's got a Ghislaine Maxwell feel to it. Or I stay where I am, where, you know, there's no more dangerous career path than being an ex dictator. No more danger. And he said, if I stay in Venezuela, I'll get a knife up the ass Gaddafi style.

Yeah. Which you do not want to go. You do not want to die from a knife up the ass. I'm pretty sure that is not the preferred method to go to the light. And so they – it's like when we saved the guy in the Iraqi hospital, and it's this – we send SEAL team, whatever, and they run up and they grab the guy and we get him out and we tell this great story. And then we found out after the fact that the doctors at the hospital said, hey, we got your guy. Come and get him. He's here. Just come and get him. And so we just made this. We lie our asses off. We, we, the authorities.

That's why I don't believe anything that Israel tells us. I don't believe anything our government tells us. There's no government that has ever, ever failed to optimize the story. Right. So if you think you understand what happened on October 7th, you think what you understand what happened in Pearl Harbor, you think you understand what happened in the Gulf War. The Gulf War wasn't even a clean war for us. People think, well, at least, you know, Saddam attacked Kuwait. we gave him the nod now scott horton is a little more generous he says no we didn't give him the nod we fucked up our state department said some shit that was ambiguous and and he took it too far and i'm going okay it's it's not like scott's bashful scott scott really does call call call balls and strikes but i think we gave him the nod it's just a hunch when that sounds like plausible

deniability in a way right and the somali thing the somalis aren't ripping us off up in minnesota they're just friend men who's getting all that money right and then how are they so easily able to funnel the cash literally through airports tsa security get it to dubai right right that's like military transports yeah right i mean who knows right that's like how here you know how you smuggle yeah you smuggle it turns out the art world has a customs deals where you they don't have to check the packages because it's rare art you don't want to be sending da vinci to to the bat for some show and have guys disturb you can't disturb the piece you can't open the box that's right and so you shove the shit in there and so so a lot of trafficking and stuff is is is hidden

in the art world art world it's a great laundering you know the guy sold balloon art for 260 360 million dollars right yeah what is his name this well that's money laundering coons his name is coons yeah and by the way i've seen pictures of coons with some very dubious characters so i do believe i do believe that coons coons was laundering money do you think we're at a social tipping point though whether it's like generational divide what the intentions of nick shirley are like i think one thing's clear like he's he's incited these copycats like uh the which is good news which is exactly the zoomer cloud maxing out there i saw there was one this morning some guy went to some acidic neighborhood in in new york that is doing a similar welfare scam we've seen

it happen in la philadelphia there's a kid running around philadelphia doing the same thing but when you like look at the economy the job market the inability for the younger generations to make a better life for themselves form families buy houses all that stuff and then there's all this fraud being laid on laid bare like are we reaching a social tipping point where it's like well are we gonna see it stop are we just gonna know how much are we just gonna be getting a doggy style are we gonna be getting it missionary style instead of doggy style i think uh i mean i think if we're just being honest with ourselves it's probably that but i would like

to hope that there is enough momentum when was the last time someone of importance went to prison that's a great question denny hastert yeah diddling kids what was that 30 years ago yeah but he was already old at that point wasn't right he must have pissed someone off yeah what was he speaking the house at the time yeah yeah that's a high level position he got blagojevic who was what mayor of uh was governor of or mayor of chicago or governor of illinois or something but he was a throwaway he did a tucker interview it was really good yeah and he basically explained like i was thrown under the bus because i wouldn't go with obama right that was right right right right so so um i think

and then the story i love to tell i was on a zoom call with a couple of generals and uh one of them mentioned a guy named janda these are retired jays like 80 year old generals and and one of them mentioned a guy named janda and i go janda the undersecretary of health and whatever and he said he said yeah and i said is he a good guy and he go oh he's a really good guy and um janda turns out was doing an interview i've got the link i didn't write about it um And someone said to him, he was inside the beltway after having been appointed in one of these bureaucratic positions. He's an orthopedic surgeon or something. And his buddy says, don't, whatever you do, don't go to a private party.

He says, even if it's at the vice president's house, which I think was Cheney at the time. And Jenna says, why? And he says, because you will wake up in a fog not knowing what happened and you'll have a Polaroid clipped to your shirt with you and a five-year-old. they don't have to corrupt you they just have to slip you a mickey yeah by the way why doesn't someone collect the glasses from the fucking macrons at a restaurant and do a dna test what would that do well if the two questions are the lower level question is macron's wife a dude so you find out if oh macron okay macron yeah if you find out that he's got a that his wife has a Y chromosome, then you answer that question. McCrone has sued Candace Owens. What do you bet

that nothing comes of that suit because they don't actually want to go to discovery? Because a DNA test would go to discovery, right? If I'm a judge, I'm not letting a lawsuit go by without saying, give me a DNA test, court sanctioned. It's over. It's defamation or not, depending on your DNA test. The second question, and Candace has kind of backed off of this one. I don't know if Candace is right but i think she tries to get it right i don't think she's a intentional liar um at one point she was saying that macron's wife is not only a dude but is also his father well if you're gonna do the dude thing it's just a minor step if it's some satanic cult family you've seen pictures of her with him when he was like 14 years old yeah that's pretty fucked up

they started dating at 15 because she was his teacher right she was 39 he was 15 so you know it's it's a fucked up world yeah is that my phone yeah that's my son um so that dna test might show a relationship so i'm waiting for that a bit the other thing what do you bet what do you bet tyler robinson's case does not go to court by any mechanism you want i mean it's already been weird to this point right there's no way that he shot charlie kirk i think he might have been involved i could imagine a scenario where tyler robinson was sent to the roof to be a spotter or something yeah not realizing that

they're gonna hang it on him yeah and all of a sudden so i think his father turned him in not because his father well i think i think i saw his father had he had had to get him off the street or he'd die yeah well there'd be a shootout there'd be a shootout i think i saw you tweeting about what happened to john cullen because uh his fascinating question his analysis of of that immediate aftermath was very interesting i've had him on the show before so john sort of would do these podcasts incognito and i said to him one day in a podcast said john you know you're sort of incognito but i'm not sure those sunglasses and hat are really hiding your identity and if you really work for oracle it's not going to be hard to narrow down who the hell you are and he

said well yeah that's true so john did a bunch of things including did a great job on the las vegas shootings i didn't realize that a lot of shit i was getting about the shooting i was getting it was john's stuff i didn't realize that years ago when i wrote about i didn't realize a bunch was coming from john um then he got into the butler shooting and he did trajectory analysis he's a real geeky guy or connected one of the two and then he started analyzing some other shit oh he started analyzing the kirk thing and started picking up on the egyptian plane that pulled into the airport and pulled out and you know stuff like that and now they mention the craziness of cannons owens mentioning egyptian planes you know and i'm going that was john

cullen so john also on october 13th tweeted his last tweet without saying goodbye or anything i've got john's email he doesn't answer other people have his phone number he doesn't pick up and so john is either a dad or be reassigned there is a guy out there on twitter who says he knows he's still alive but i don't know if the guy on twitter knows for sure well if it's the latter what was he being assigned to in the first place well you know you've got narratives you got a pump right you've oh when i talked to tucker um he he talked about uh he talked about shit like this about um i just lost my train of thought um about these narratives we got into it quite a bit i might have been off camera i can't remember

off camera we went dark holy fuck did we go dark um i don't know he's still alive someone said i just don't think you can whack that many people in that short of time because then people then people will start getting suspicious right like we're not suspicious um i've become a total conspiracy theorist i've never as you know i've never been bashful about conspiracy theories because a tweet that not only went viral but i've now seen in two books i see this tweet in two books where i said you know i i i if i'm a conspiracy theorist i believe men and women of wealth and power conspire if you don't you're what's called an idiot and and if you do but you won't say anything you're what's called a coward so uh if if you really don't think women

of men and women of wealth and power aren't conspiring you need a cat scan i mean the entire human population is a big conspiracy right yeah and and so um you know claude schwab oh he's not inspiring where'd he go by the way just gone it's like he got pushed in the in the in the locker said all right you've here that's right time to go who's replaced him too many people who's replaced him uh mark carney mark carney there's there's a guy who's not only front and center and deep state oftentimes i think the guys who are real deep state you don't see as easily i think mark carney i think they moved them from like a private brought economic forum to a head of state well don't forget he went through central bank first

bank of england yeah and then he went to then he he went to and i've got pictures of mark seeing there was delane maxwell and you know it's just it's one big club and we ain't in it as george carlin would say do we want to be in it though i don't know no no no that was part of my decision I did not want to lock arms with Candace Owens and Dave Smith and fight the Zionists. Yeah. And, and that's the direction I was heading. My brother nailed it. He's been worried about me, uh, not being wacky, but rather getting into places. I don't want to be. And he said, would you ever want to trade positions with Nick Fuentes?

I said, no chance. He said, then be careful. Yeah. And I somehow seem to be willing to talk about it, but not write about it. and i don't it's weird because writing you have more control but it's also more formal somehow you get this feeling that you and i chatting isn't as consequential as laying out a document yeah which is not true in the digital world but yeah and it's all um and i think about this a lot too uh sometimes you just want to take the blue pill eat the steak eat the steak again i know it's not i

know it's like how much should i just focus on my family my neighbors uh well i don't know how to turn it off is the problem i'm having same but i but you you know this story i i do probably 90 podcasts a year of which some number of them are repeats but it's a lot of people i don't think i've ever run into a podcaster who wasn't already up to speed on this shit the guys who have these chats regularly you mike ferris you guys like that they're all now black pilled and blue pilled whatever it is i can't remember the pill colors which one is it which is the one where you go everything's everything's doing blue pills just like you're a normie mpc and red pill is is where you see the reality white pill is like hey the future is bright we're gonna win

i'd like to i like to think i like to take the white pill yeah i know while at the same time chewing on the red pill yes understanding um but but i'm stunned at the number of people who educated intelligent don't confuse the two they're the venn diagram overlaps that they good on those two um and uh who are onto this shit and i go i just don't think that would have been the case 10 or 15 years ago i just i i you know i don't think most people thought about 9-11 no what do you think the percentage of people think 9-11 is screwed up now what do think the percentage is and it's probably a 30 which is pretty okay i would say right what percentage of watch building seven drop and find it normal

zero so that's the thing like i think 30 are aware of building seven once you're aware of building seven it's like wait a second what the heck well the other one that i think is actually bigger is that there's not a shred of footage of the pentagon getting hit two frames neither shows anything right the official narrative is building second is bigger than the pentagon but but but you you're they're saying they snuck a jumbo jet into dc and no one caught it on film yeah no that's pretty big i'm i'm i agree the pentagon is just as is bad and then and then the pictures of shanksville i go you know shanksville should have been an unbelievable mess i've heard that when you go to a plane crash it is beyond

comprehension it's a yard sale shit everywhere and um and uh and and you look at the shanksville and there's nothing just a hole in the ground all the luggage all the plane the plane's gone nothing just it's just a big hole in the ground i go so where did all these people go was there ever a real plane well that's the um i my brother and i discovered this a couple years ago because when we were we were uh when i was when we were in high school i think i forget it was in high school or eighth grade we watched loose change the original loose change and i i remember that we gave a presentation i can't find the original loose change we apparently they had apple tv and like we read it and we're like this isn't the original loose change and uh

i think they buried the original loose change documentary the other one that was disappearing a lot was uh planet of the humans by by uh more who's who's the super lefty um what's this first name famous famous famous filmmaker moore oh michael moore michael moore and he went to make a story about climate change and he discovered that the whole thing was fucked up and he made diesel engines at the planet of the humans and and so the whole thing was like holy fuck we just had this all wrong right michael moore got flipped by looking into it i sat down with constantine kyson on climate change again this is still going on although it's disappearing now i think uh the climate change stories going away i think because it's an ai's way um but but but i sat down with

one day and he gave the the most brilliant talk on climate change just the funniest most brilliant talk at the oxford union if anyone's listening search that oxford union the constantine kyson yeah debate it was brilliant i transcribed it and i realized that it was perfect english the whole way a verbal presentation no no's perfect english all it needed were punctuation marks and uh and and i asked i said when you dug into climate change how long did it take you to figure out it was bullshit and he said a couple hours that's the same with me when someone finally said look at it took me about three hours i go oh this story's fucked up oh this story's fucked up and it's going to go away because ai can't afford to have people saying oh we can't have

coal-fired power power plants would you see uh nuclear power facilities now esg friendly after decades of being i'm told although someone um oh i think it was brendan ike yesterday i was talking about that twitter spaces where he showed up and he's saying he doesn't think these these small nukes are gonna the way of the future he thinks you need the big ones i could see that and he's a smart smart guy but i don't see why not all i mean we have small modular reactors i don't know more ships all right i don't know that i'm just passing along the uh the opinion of a guy who's been there and done that in a very big way yeah and uh and the host didn't know who he was so i kept trying to get brendan to jump in and the host was picking people who he knew and i said

got to get brendan in here what basis was this um well i just did a podcast with this guy named kevin malone and brendan showed up because brendan and i swapped dms just every day almost and um and then i finally got brendan to jump in and and brendan and i took over the twitter space it was really that's really but it was i think the host was just odd when he realized and i said for those of you who don't know who brendan is you know and i laid out his cv and and said he he's been there he knows this game yeah the inventor of javascript you either love him or hate him for that depending on well and the funny story i like to tell in relatively short period of time i i was trolling trolling um twitter for help with you know i needed a spam

blocker mostly for zero hedge and um and i said what's the best spam blocker for firefox because you don't just go to the internet and download shit right i mean that strikes me as a bad thing to do and um and and brendan jimes in and said well this is the one you ought to use what he wrote firefox so i'm getting so then then one day i'm having trouble with with microsoft outlook and I've got the former president of Microsoft troubleshooting out there for me. The former president was Steve Sanofsky. He was second under Balmer after Gates left. I think he left because he realized Balmer wasn't going to get out of his way

or he wasn't going to get the top dog spot because he's no longer at Microsoft. But so in any event, so I'm sitting there going, you know, this is the highest watermark of Twitter you can get when you got the president of Microsoft, troubleshooting your Microsoft-based email program. At one point, I said, Steve, they've completely fucked up the menus now. They've moved everything. It's like moving Helen Keller's chair. She said, yeah, I thought we locked it down in 2007.

I'm as confused as you. It seems like they've completely messed up everything, at least on the operating system side. Right. Right. And and by the way, this AI battle, those tech giants are going to kill each other. This is going to be like this is going to be like Godzilla versus Mothra versus King Kong versus and and and they're not all going to be left standing. No. And and the best way I got phrases there, they were high profit margin, low capex businesses. So that's one of the reasons they were carrying the markets so well, besides passive investing and stuff like that.

But now they're in lower profits, high capex markets. I mean, right now they're loss leaders, right? They're subsidizing. They are. The cost of what they're doing is not even is smaller than the revenues, the revenues. So their revenues aren't even covering. forget about profits they're just sucking up all the revenues plus more of those companies well it's it's just a user grab right now like i was telling you i use claude and

i bang it all day and that's winner take all it's winner take all yeah there's like i was talking to a friend who is way more savvy when it comes to computer science and understanding how much this compute should cost he was like yeah like it should be costing like two thousand dollars a day if you're if you're hitting limits and it's nowhere the tenth of that for um it's it's like uh it's it's like it's i remember one year i made reference during covid i think it was the year of covid i said i said i said skype lost a 35 to nothing lead right zoom just completely wiped them out and and and now you got riverside you got others but skype has anyone skype i think skype shut down officially okay well there's the answer um

and and so i i think these these mega techs are on this total self-destruction path and and i just the world it's it's it's just i guess it's the passive investing that the the mindless robot of michael green's fame um just won't let them reprice yet what do you think would cause a repricing when there's accounts for it so uh mike sent me a draft of a paper that had tons of math in it i underestimated mike um i thought he just had this sort of one simple idea okay fine good idea now he studied much more deeply he really understands the math of it and and um and and what was missing from his paper and i said what you need is a paragraph that says these are the things that could cause the flows to reverse

and i said aim it at the golden retrievers right right that famous line in the movie tell me like i'm a golden retriever and um and and i said i said you got it and so deep recession um uh flow of capital back overseas right young people not getting jobs the young people not getting jobs a slowing of the flow which causes the markets to start toppling people saying i'm gonna i'm not buying any more of this shit right i mean they're just it will find a way the free market will find Anyway, the other maxim that anyone who's ever studied the history of finance will tell you is once a good idea becomes widely known, it's not a good idea. Yeah. And as a consequence, passive investing.

I got Jack Bogle to admit there was a problem with it. I cornered him and I said, Jack, in the olden days when big money managers actively managed funds and a company got out of line, they'd go in their office and give them shit. i said is it possible that the passive investing one of the downsides is there's no adult supervision now there's no one that's going to go into the ceos office and say you got to get your shit together we're going to sell your shares and we're a big swinging dick here and jack admitted it was that what black rock and vanguard do no no no they just want the flows they just want the flows right they just they just want the money

they want that it's all about rerouting the flows through your organization so you get your off the flow and until those flows reverse uh boomers retiring right at some point the boomers demographic is going to be taken out faster than the impoverished demographics putting it in well that's um retiring or dying yeah i think that's another thing the uh with the vaccine specifically so here's here's what i believe but i don't have a good model for it i do not believe people have this image that there's going to be this gigantic wealth transfer from the boomers to the next generation and i i just it's almost a religious belief on my part i don't think you can do that without the repricing occurring

what do you mean you do it in the i i i i think the process of of of the wealth transferring from the boomers down to the younger generation will will part of that process will include the repricing i don't think we can pass for example i don't think we can pass our let's say have a house worth two million dollars i you can't pass that house to the next generation especially my kids my kids can't even afford the taxes of my house yeah they don't want the house they can't afford the maintenance you gotta you got an expensive house you got some big mcmansion or something made out of plastic they don't want to they've been raised not to want to live there they've been told since daycare they have a small footprint they don't believe in garish

display because they know they can't do it let's start with that yeah it's a very good point there it's kind of a sour grapes problem but the house gets passed down they say hey i'd rather have the cash i'd rather have the cash so the house gets sold and no one takes their parents house and lives in it who the fuck does that yeah except farmers yeah we're gonna go to multi-generational housing at some point which at first will feel like a failure which it already is you know your kids sleeping on the sofa in the basement it will then become a a an accepted thing i'm actually cause i'm i'm welcoming of that well well you know the grandparents take care of the kids while the parents work

that's they work the fields the grandparents the grandparents also teach the parents how to be parents it's part of the reason we moved home my mother-in-law she came picked up the baby yesterday right right never give a sucker an even break by the way you want to go bankrupt fastest route to bankruptcy is to be married to a grandmother she will drain your bank account into those grandchildren wait what was married to the grandmother if you're married to a grandmother she's going to drain your bank accounts because those grandchildren are going to get every toy imaginable every imaginable toy to the point with the your kids are going mom stop stop you're you're you're spoiling the kids to the point you

know this is not good um my wife was going to give the kids a ton of money i said would you please ask will the son what's an okay number for him don't just hand over a lot of money and have him go i can't believe you just did that mom you know yeah so one time we had a delivery truck show up our house and the guy told my wife and my wife actually told me the story which i would have buried she said the delivery this is right before christmas she said the delivery guy said this truckload is for just your house very uh it's giving nature it's good to have you know no it is it is and that's her joy actually that's her joy in life is is doting on the grandchildren brett weinstein talks about the

evolutionary advantage of having a grandmother that there's actually a chance of the young surviving because of the grandmother but great grandmothers are not so our life expectancies really were designed to get the grandmother but not further they become a liability my uh my grandmother's still alive so the boy is it's her their great grandmother right but your grandmother doesn't serve as important a person as your parents no no unless your parents suck and they're crackheads then your grandmother might be important again yeah now the uh that feels good i have a village um to help with all this and to your point about multi-generational housing i sort of decided i think my mom's i don't know how my wife will take this but uh

i feel like at some point either my mom or her parents will have to let them move into the house Right. And the other thing is it it saves. So they provide daycare services, which is a fortune for families. And and also you provide the care for the grandparents as opposed to having to lock them up in some home somewhere. Yeah. And so it's just and it's much more efficient to run one household. Right. And I think culturally it's good. Culturally, it's good as long as the people involved are good people. yeah right if your father's a satanic pedophile that's a problem yeah that could be a big problem but that means you probably are too so that's even bigger problem what um let's wrap it up with a with a message to gen z here do you have any hope having uh how old are gen z's how old

are the kids in your classroom right now oh yeah actually i do give them messages all through the semester, which gets me in trouble. They're going to have to cope with, they're totally screwed up by phones, by AI, by social media. Literally, their peripheral vision has shrunk. Physically, their peripheral vision, that's called neuroplasticity. Your brain rewires because all you're doing is focusing on the phone. They'll sit in class and text each other, so they're not learning. Somewhere out in the world are kids who are not making this mistake and they will win. So I tell the class that you got to find a way to put your phone away. I'm not blaming you. It's not your fault. There is an entire industrial complex out there designed

to get you to be glued to that phone. We raised you. It's not your fault, but you got to find a way to get rid of that phone. We are now in a movement where secondary education is now starting to say no phones at school at any point they're starting to lock them up and and at one point they tried just saying no phones in class the kids would run into the hall and pop open their phones and not talk to each other so what i noticed last year maybe it's just an aberrant year i had 25 kids in a class sophomores cornell kids right these are kids who got into cornell because not only because they were smart but because they played football or they were you know editor of yearbook or whatever the entire class was shy every last one of them was shy there was no kid

in there who you say oh that's an unruly kid i gotta gotta you know because unruly kids can make a class very entertaining you know they they bring they bring game and none of them i'd make a joke and i i was voted class clown so i i i can make jokes and um and i don't even bother anymore because i just i don't get anything i get nothing i go maybe they've been trafficked i don't know um right and the the blank stare yeah it's like they're on wagovi or something then you know the we'll go the eyes and, uh, and so, um, they need to, um, I think their work ethic has fallen off a cliff. So when I was in college, I'd get up, I'd go to the library at nine. I'd come back to my fraternity at, at, for dinner. And then I go back to library, maybe at seven 30 and then stay

there till 11 and come home and maybe fuck around a little. And I did that seven days a week, seven days a week now i was a little psychotic i was not a good student in high school but i said okay now i got to get my shit together now it's big league time um and it worked really well for me and not everyone did that but in my fraternity 11 out of 12 went to grad school so you know 11 out of 12 of the graduating class i happen to remember went to grad school and um and they include guys like rick sherwin founded goldwyn software group um brian murdoch who was who was ceo of td asset management i mean they were good people um i don't think the kids today really know how to work at all i i and they don't know they don't know how to read an exam question

even so if you say okay here's the setup bob does this joe does this blah blah blah blah what's the answer they literally go to the final line say what's the answer and say i don't know how to do this you go you know those first couple of lines you skipped over because this is not a fucking email right this is not a how you do an email this is a we're giving you information and they don't read it they just skip right over and get to the message the message you know the question um ucsd test they're bringing sats back i remember when we took out sats i go oh boy this is stupid there's problems with sats but taking them out is the wrong solution and um ucsd is bringing them back they did a study of the freshmen they gave them a test and they found out there's something

like 40 of the freshmen were not middle school level math there's ucsd ucsd is not a bad school supposedly so they gave an example they said 25 of the kids missed the following question six plus three equals seven plus x what is x they missed that 25 so i gave that question to my first grade grandchild and he got it he had to use his fingers a little bit you know um that's a fundamental problem um it's fixable we had i had a colleague who decided he was going to help the minority students so this is not this is not a well-kept secret that you know if you're black you get in easier right if someone wants to call that racist have a fucking ball you can suck my

direct him i don't care um but also you don't want to bring a potentially talented kid who's not ready for the big leagues to cornell and then destroy them so you do not need women's studies here the women aren't at a disadvantage you don't need you do need africana studies because if you You bring a kid to Cornell and you find out he can't be a physics major. You got to give him something. So you have Africana Studies because that kid, if you get him through, you get him the sheepskin, he will do okay. Because there's still a demand in society for a successful kid. He will do okay.

But if you destroy them, you shouldn't have ever accepted them. So you need Africana Studies. But one of my colleagues decided that they were failing, battling. He looked at the stats, freshman chem, our monster freshman chem course. They were occupying C, C minus zone. It was completely, we'd see a black chem major once every five years, right? We were destroying them in freshman chem. He set up a boot camp and he drilled them.

And I said, how bad are they? And he said, I tell them New York to Chicago, 50 miles, 500 miles, 5,000 miles, about a third, a third, a third. What? Yeah. You grow up in the hood. You don't know this shit. You can be smart as shit and you can really be trying to get it right, but you don't know this shit. You are at a disadvantage that seems insurmountable.

So he said, he says they can't add fractions, right? So he set up a boot camp. to teach him how to take freshman camp so like a hundred kids in this class and he pulled no punches he really it was like joining the marines and and he also turned it into a you can beat the white kids now this kid's this guy's asian his father won the nobel prize in physics he's asian my colleague he got them into this you can this is like okay but you know you know how to drive to the hoop right you give me an athlete i can turn them into a chemist i guarantee you athletes do great in academia you just have to turn on the competitive gene

and these kids not only went way up the charts in freshman chem we monitored it it carried through to their courses. We were starting to see graduating classes with five, six, seven black kids in the chem major. Where was the New York Times? I told guys who were working on this thing, I said, get the fucking, I reached out to a reporter, said, would you write about it, right? I go, where the fuck is it? Because I wouldn't have believed it. So it really is the case. It just needed the right setting. But you also couldn't be a pussy about it. You can say, well we can't do this and you know where he got flack from the guy running it he got flack from the minority industrial complex over in the arts college because they were not succeeding

and he was invading their you can't do that you can't you can't do that yeah and by the way you know we've got language requirements in arts and sciences you might have to take as many as four four semesters of language at two dollars a credit four credits per course that's that's what eight sixteen thirty two thousand dollars you think that's going to keep going a student that keeps becoming a problem no you can't make a kid take thirty two thousand dollars worth of requirement that they don't want but here's the problem whenever there's a meeting to discuss the language requirements all the humanists show up i think the i i think college has got to go through a massive change that's why i was a little bummed trump didn't want to let the uh he went to bail

them out last year well he did throw a fastball past harvard's chin and cornell's chin there was there was some real chaos by his by his cut off of funds um here's here's here's what i presented to Lorne Lister back in 2011 at Capital Accounts. And at the time, I don't know if anyone's talked about it. They have talked about it since. I said, you set up a student loan program where you set up a tranche, say $100 million to MIT. And you say, the deal is they're going to pay it back over 10 years by paying a percentage of their salary for the first 10 years so the kids know exactly what fraction of their salary is going to be committed to it and let the free market determine what percentage that ought to be so you get you give me a stanford graduating class i'll

go holy fuck i could get stinking rich if a couple of those guys hit the ball out of the park right mount mount you know jesus christ of the holy mary is not going to do as well what would happen well first and foremost colleges would produce a better product because they'd realize that we gotta produce a better product and and many would go out of business which i think we're going to see in the next 20 years i think we're going to see a big attrition of colleges if you talk to people my age with kids a lot of us sort of come resigned to the fact like we don't think colleges are going to exist learn how to fix elevators now it'll exist and it just has to have a much smaller footprint there's still a purpose for it and by the way massive online

courses that whole thing covid proved that sucks no one learned anything online the online shit didn't work um but then i realized put that debt those tranches in the endowment so now the college really has a reason to produce a product because it's their own endowment and if they're successful they can really expand those profit margins now what would Why would that land like a lead balloon? Because then all of a sudden the humanities would be at great risk of going away. And you can't have the Marxists in our university systems getting – What would you do?

You know how many – so here's the English world. The English department, you have, of course, the scholarly shit. You have journalism gone, right? You have writing gone. Then AI is taking that out, which is horrifying to me, actually, but it's true. We have 50-something English faculty. They're all going to study Chaucer, right? The Canterbury Tales, the classic, you've got to read it.

I know, I know, I know. So my advice to the students is you've got to learn to study. I tell them about flashcards, why they're so useful. I tell them about, you know, studying every subject every day. Don't the first day of class is the first day of the semester is every bit as valuable as the last day. You just don't know it. In fact, I freshman year figured out, you know, those 30 days between fall and spring and those hundred plus days between spring and fall. that's valuable time too so i would figure out what course i was going to take figure out what they would ask me to read and i would read that shit during the intercession so that i would hit the ground with momentum at the start of the semester and go to the library at nine o'clock

day one set the routine don't don't wait for the semester to catch up to you yeah so there's all sorts of things you can do to game the system and to get an education and and they just have to do it as uh as you've been describing it doesn't seem like it's very hard to stick out and be an outperformer you're competing globally now that's true and so i guarantee the kids in china are not studying chaucer they're putting out a lot when when i was an assistant professor i went to a meeting at dupont with 10 chemists and 10 engineer assistant professors the difference between the two is stunning the engineers were so different than the chemists so stunningly different than the

chemists and um and and dupont said we could hire every single phd in chemical engineering every year we're not seeing enough we're just not getting enough yeah well that's i mean that's talk about fourth turning atlas shrugged like this uh competency crisis that could be on the horizon too well so so trump wants to import everything here trump could turn out 100 years from now to look like a historically important figure um the problem is is that this is multi-generational that's what brendan said he says it's multi-generational it's going to take several generations for us to turn this super tanker after several generations of it turning the wrong way this is not a you know bring it here next year shit that's what i was i'm looking

for this tweet i saw this morning that actually retweeted um might have been yesterday it's uh but it was about i think uh mining majors like obviously we have this dash none are there any so i'm looking for let me find it should be high school seniors consider checking out a bs in mining engineering the entire u.s graduates 162 mining engineers per year bachelors yeah holy shit by the way we're gonna start scoping housing in greenland right mining is a terribly difficult business yeah so 500 600 per year are needed to sustain current operations for producing 162 engineers per year and given how much the u.s expanding mining this year seems like a choke point so it's going to go up and where do you where do you what

happens when you lose the technology what happens when there's no one left who knows how to set up a rig knows how to set up a knows how to start a mine that's the other worrying thing about ai too if you just allocate the understanding of this work to the machine and you wake up something happens to the machine and no one knows how to fix it yeah no no that's absolutely terrifying to me and also not to mention the system will be so brittle you know you'll be talking to some ai and there just will be no way there will be no mechanism for a human to say okay i see your problem. Let me help you out here. Let's push away the bullshit. Let's solve this. I actually got social security this year. And I was shocked to discover last year that I was going to get

social security. I go, oh, fuck, I turned 70. I get social security. Turns out I get a fuck ton of money. I've not run into someone who gets as much social security as me. I don't know why. I thought we all got sort of like the upper cap or something. But my social security is like 60k, which considering i didn't know was coming that's a lot of money and um and uh and so i signed up for it and they say sign up for four months in advance and then trump got gets into power and i'm going oh boy this is gonna get all fucked up you know all the cuts and shit but i can see it kind of progressing and then some lady calls me the first thing is amazing is she was competent she was competent she says let me help you i'm finishing up your application here you know

i could understand her and and then she says something about do you have dependents i go yeah my wife well why and she said well does she get social security i said well she gets a tiny amount she said well uh she's not eligible to get half of what you get i go what they said yeah she gets a she gets a step up to half of yours and i go has that always been true she said yeah i didn't even know that so all of a sudden she went from getting almost nothing to 30 000 and so i go oh wow and then she says is she there i can help her and i said no and so she says give me her number i'll call her i get home her accounts all set up i go where did they find this person to work for the federal government it's encouraging it is encouraging there was at least one good good

someone said the graft is encouraging oh it was robbie the robbie the fire said the graft was encouraging because it shows you how much we could save it's i mean estimates up to what 500 billion dollars a year probably i imagine it's higher when it's got to be trillion they haven't looked at the military budget yet if you think there's not a similar amount of waste but we do have to keep sending money to uh to ukraine yes and israel and uh and israel yeah and and we do have to keep venezuela i'm agnostic on i i i totally dave smith it in the sense that i do understand that that stealing heads of state strikes me as a precedent setting move it seems a little over the edge um did you see the dave smith uh um dinesh desuza crash out crash out

so as you're taking that what was that about h1bs that no that was it was it was yesterday i didn't see that and it was about um optional wars it really came down to us us traipsing around the world attacking countries for no fucking reason dave smith of course does not like that and de souza gave sort of a neocon party line supporting it and of course i side with smith And therefore, I'm so biased that I can't hear the merits of D'Souza's arguments, although I thought he did an okay job of defending the indefensible. I mean, I think when it comes to Venezuela, I was – who knows? It's still – nothing's been determined. That's the key.

Who knows? I think I saw this week that he doesn't want the military there, but he's down to have private defense contractors go and make sure that everything's okay on the ground. What happens when they get caught? What happens when someone grabs up a handful of them and all of a sudden we've got a hostage crisis? Yeah, that's the big question. But, I mean, at least as it stands right now, nothing's escalated or devolved into complete chaos down there. So is it about the oil? Because I'm not convinced.

uh no i did you read that uav um maybe i don't know the theory that like i mean the waterway is there and i think it's just a box out china and russia that that is certainly part of it i think it's also someone did a great world map they showed a world map and they circled the western hemisphere with basically a digital crayon and said trump and then they circled a chunk of the northern rest they've said putin then they circle the chunk of this and she yeah but it's trump is doing a great job if this multipolar world is unavoidable he's basically saying let's pull in the horns let's let's let's let's let's move back my wife's pissed off about greenland i say well you know empire's grab shit so yeah well we were talking

about it uh on a podcast my weekly podcast with my co-host matt o'dell yesterday if like you go to the game of risk greenland and venezuela are two of the most uh valuable pieces of of land to lock down i always like to take north america yeah um north america you never go to malaysia malaysia is a great place to hang out but you won't win the game yeah um and no one wins in europe i've used that metaphor by the way you know no one wins in europe right europe looks to me like it's just going to be a perpetual state of disaster i think i mean and that's why i think trump's beginning to focus i mean if we're if it's not a grand stage and there is some sort of logic behind everything like i'm for packing it into the western hemisphere europe exactly

exactly so so if it's a western hemisphere thing then take greenland take venezuela i don't have I don't have a problem with that model. Even Dave Smith aside, I say, okay, look, we're just – we're doing a little ham-fisted, but we're saying the Western Hemisphere is hands-off. That's my hope. And the cigar boats have nothing to do with drugs. The cigar boats have nothing to do with drugs. Now, the UAV article – I forget who wrote it. It was on Medium a few weeks ago.

Essentially, like the – particularly in the water right to the north of Venezuela, like if you have like a Cuban missile-like crisis, that's like a great spot to launch UAVs. Why haven't we let Cuba back into our orbit? It seems to me it would have been real easy to just say, look, here's – you guys are dying down here. We won't bully you. Just let's make up and move on. Why don't we do that? Because they're still communists? i don't know i don't know it just seems like an obvious thing to do well that was like another

theory that this medora thing was a shot across the belt of cuba yeah i've heard that story too we're all just getting narratives yeah if we had the answer key we'd probably you know the famous i actually mentioned this quote to tucker and he went wild i mentioned the quote from daniel Ellsberg where he's talking to Kissinger and Kissinger is about to get top security clearance which Ellsberg had and he says Henry when you get the clearance you are going to be shocked at what you see and then you're going to be elated and then you're going to be at some cocktail party talking to some three-star general yak in your ear off and you're going to realize he doesn't know what the fuck he's talking about because he doesn't have it and then he says you're going to

stop listening to people and you're going to become a moron and so so tucker's staff is standing there listening this conversation we're having which included satanic cults and shit i mean it was a ridiculous conversation and uh and they're riveted and tucker starts going through his phone and he reads the whole damn quote from ellsberg that quote obviously stuck with him like crazy and he just he reads it he just so he's got that's just an amazing quote you know and uh and so i found him to be very endearing he was he was uh i'm a i'm a big tucker fan now and you know is this one of the smartest moves he made had nothing with me um anna casparian he brings her on the show and she's his best buddy now

she has taken a talker by by by showcasing the left who have a prayer of having a brain he's had a sink on too i believe he has i didn't know that yeah um but all of a sudden they might not like everything he says but it's not like i hate tucker time anymore no and they realize that they they have a huge common interest with tucker and so tucker formed an alliance with anna and i think the the whole young turks crew he had sank on it after the charlie kirk stuff they were talking about charlie i love watching the young i used to hate them i love watching them i mean i i do like the schadenfreude of the uh 20 2016 or 2016 uh post-election sort of meltdown as they were

that's funny that was funny that was funny that was fun i gotta tell you watching 2016 play out was hysterical yeah well to your point about like tucker and the young turks people i think you have like the horseshoe theory of populism coming around people are starting to realize like libertarianism meets from the left and the right in the middle yeah and they're saying wait a second there's all this fraud waste and abuse where in all these forever wars like we're actually on the same side we may have some differences on some policies but i think and tucker hates the right as much as the left though i mean the right is toothless um at least the um toothless or bad yeah you know um you know apec has a grip on both sides so i i'm still trying to figure out

one thing that makes tucker so dangerous is this shtick is getting better every passing day so it starts off sort of raw and now when you listen to him give a 10 minute talk you go i can't argue with a single thing he just said well his i mean mastered it particularly on israel he had like that 40 minute monologue um right that was his monologues you'd be hard pressed to say no that's not right you'd be really hard pressed to locate something that that's that's wrong yeah he occasionally says you know they're in a relevant country you know something yeah okay jump on that if you want but um um but i'm not sure why he's picking these fights it could be he's reached that stage in his life where he just feels that

somehow legacy is more important that he doesn't want to be on the wrong side of history that and i mean i think there's a demand for this type of um sort of frank commentary right but i i don't think he's grifting it though i think i think it's really coming from the heart on him i think the overwritten window shifted he's been uh i think uh part of the reason that shifted and i think there's i mean it's shifted wide open now to the point where um i think there's plenty of room for people to explore these topics earnestly especially i mean the zoomers if you talk to the zoomers the uh they are not happy right now they're they're not not at all you go on a college campus you can't find a pro-israel crowd that's not wearing a

yarmulke yeah and um and and and so but but there's also not anti-semitism like they say to best i can i've asked colleagues so are you aware of something that you'd really call serious anti-semitism besides supporting palestine doesn't isn't anti-semitic i you you name a government i'll oppose it you give any government i'll oppose it right um and and and so so but can you name any i've asked college can you name any real anti-semitic things where some kids just walk into class because you were in a yarmulke gets a crap kicked out or something or whatever gets harassed badly and no one can no the kids don't want to do this they were raised not to do this yeah this generation has been raised to embrace everything right and it's uh and that's like the

weird thing about the whole israel comment is everything gets conflated to anti-semitism like no this state in the middle east that has a lot of influence um on our politicians like i just have some questions i had a two-hour chat about two weeks ago with a guy who has a Nobel Prize, who's Jewish, who spent two years in an attic during World War II, hiding. And it was an amazing discussion. It was just amazing. And the question I asked, I said, okay, here's a question I have for you. How do you raise a Jewish child? And I said, the question is, um you want him to be aware of the past because it illustrates risk and illustrates persecution while at the same time if i raise kids and i said look statistically black guys are more

likely to kill you than white guys statistically i would raise a bunch of racists so how do you do it he says it's an unbelievably fine line but you you if if you're jewish and you raise your kids under the idea that you will always be persecuted you're not i don't think you're doing them any favors i'm not jewish i don't know but it seems like you're you're putting a yoke on them you're dumping this huge guilt on them yeah i don't think it's constructive It's like, I thought we were beating the race problem until Obama got in there and it became a weaponized political card. Yeah. The left did a bad job at that.

I don't think the right is as guilty. What has the right done that represents that sort of thing? Who have we demonized? who what what weaponized social movement or something have we done that um besides illegal aliens but they they are illegal let's start with that they are illegal um the left weaponized maleness they weaponized political correctness they weaponized uh they've weaponized anti-semitism i'm not sure that's left that might be the right trying to think maybe we're not white supremacists no certainly not

certainly i'm just for what is the right what have we done that did you say yeah the left has a good point on that i mean to some extent like the corporate greed like i do think it exists i do are you sure that's right wing that's the democratic party or excuse me i know uh the democrats push on corporate greed they'll say the republicans will say no free market's best like corporations do the thing it's like well we don't actually have free markets because we don't have i've got another i've got another book for you ruchir sharma is something like what happened to capitalism it's not a screed but it talks about there's two themes and i've been humping this book a lot he should be seeing sales improvements two themes one is we flood the

world with capital flood it and then we try to contain the consequences with regulations and it doesn't work he says you can't flood the world with capital like this it'll just go bad it'll find places to go it shouldn't go then he says also he says what i describe not his words my words is bad interventions with good intentions and he goes and he says so because of this they do this here's what happens and it's not what he screams like you know you make more you get more taxes if you have less a lower lower tax pay you know yeah it's not this right wing leave us alone and let us do whatever we want it's not that he's talking about the absurdity of the current capital system in a totally rational way yeah and that's the point i was trying to make like this whole

it's like oh we're capitalism it's like pretending like we actually live in a truly capitalist or free market society we never have but yeah but it's weirder now than it used to be my dad one time i asked him about national health care because we kind of have it but it's ad hoc so if you're broke and you go to the er they're going to treat you um if you're sick that's the only place you can go so it's an expensive way to treat you and and he said well you know it makes sense in theory that he says my experience is that every time he asks the government to spend money for you they do a horrible job yeah i mean we're fighting this out with the daycare fraud right with the daycare

with ngos i bet there's not an ngo out there that's worth a damn no no i mean that's i mean you're talking we just need uh hopefully all this is a catalyst for dramatically shrinking the budget but i find that very hard to believe i don't think we can but it's i think i think we're gonna have to hit a crisis of some kind that's gonna blow the circuits office so that i've had a couple guests in the last couple months uh susan kakinda a couple others asked what's your big prediction for uh 2026 civil war do you think civil war is on the we're kind of in one a little bit right already yeah the the um like i'm gonna pull this up it's just like the absurdity the absurdity of i mean nick shirley came out another video

but like how can anybody look at this and like think these guys are actually running like a daycare center and that no put it this way if they sent you and i over to germany and said rip off the german government would you know where to start the cultural barrier would be enormous right enormous so these guys are just front men these are bag men this is like the 15 year old kid on the street corner is not running the drug trade either yeah and who are they bag men for and by the way there's another sneaky little detail out there that i've been watching i read somewhere that you know you know the famous stats that there's a sort of a non-statistical repeat of lotto winners there are a number of people from the

lotto several times and then one day i read one where they said it was rigged and i'm going wait a minute let me see if i got this right billions of dollars are being won in the lotto and someone has found a way to rig it and i'm thinking oh my god so joe six-pack who has no chance of getting off their butts because they're being beaten down so much, buys a ticket to give them a finitely minuscule chance of busting into the open, and it's rigged. So then you go on, this kind of makes a little bit of sense.

And then I read an article about one by Zorro Trust. i go what's soro trust it's an epstein company oh lovely so the question is is it possible how they're audited well you say to the auditor we're going to kill your family if you don't sign off right that's you don't have to you don't have to get the guy compromised with a five-year-old you say look we're going to off your family you see charlie kirk i did that um and and uh and the guy will sign off on anything you'd be out of your mind i think take it yeah i don't want to end up with i don't want to die i don't want to swim with the fishes i don't want to end up in lake mead in a barrel and uh and all of a sudden i realized what if joe sixpack discovered

they didn't even have a chance to win the lotto it's all a humiliation ritual like the taxes well there is that sense that's the two questions is did israel overestimate did Israel misplay their hand and did the COVID vaccine guys misplay their hand and it depends on what you perceive their goal was Israel you can say look they squeegee

Gaza Strip free of people 10 years from now we've forgotten how it happened and they've got the strip so they win COVID it's a little trickier you ask did they want to test their ability to brainwashes did they want to did they want to call the population

with a death shot there's a million potential reasons for that i don't think it's the money actually if you look at pfizer share price you look at their dividends and stuff there's no evidence pfizer made a ton of money if they did where to go was it well i mean the other theory is i like it was you need an excuse to stimulate the economy or the banking system well so so that gets to the the theory that i happen to just read what i wrote from a number of years ago just yesterday um the market the banking system was going through convulsions in late 19

yeah september 2019 the repo spasms the repo spas then blackrock said you're gonna have to go direct and lo and behold three months later they're going direct right and and one of the theories is that they we put the global economy into an induced coma in a sort of a medical like way to stabilize the patient right drop 10 trillion eight trillion whatever the number is and then let it out of the coma slowly and see if it's okay, you know, fix the banking system. And I knew I'd gotten that from somewhere. It turns out there was a Marxist economist who came up with that theory,

got a biggie from Italy who said he thinks that maybe they did the induced coma model to stabilize the banking system, which because then after that, the banking system stops phasing. Until 23. right and and i think the interventions are getting less effective i think at some point they're just going to fail they're just not going and you know if they start intervening now and all of a sudden the inflation rate soars undeniably are they going to be able to just say fuck you we're doing it i'm not sure they count i'm not sure they'd let their credibility

get beat up that badly well luckily i mean inflation seems relatively tamed right now you sure i mean gas prices are really low yeah okay so let's say gas is the thing that they're they focus on right you're anchoring on gas yeah here's what if i were to measure inflation i'd get a hundred guys who run a hundred businesses and say what's your year over your cost of labor and inputs how much more does it cost to run that 7-eleven how much more does that plumbing company costs to run it's higher it's way higher what's happened to your car insurance what's happened to your your house your home taxes the taxes on your house um i think you'd way higher as in like here here you aren't hearing inflation or anything we had a guy who plowed our driveway

and he didn't plow last year but he was charging us 50 bucks when he did plow we could not get a plow guy we share with the neighbor we ended up having to sign a deal that was minimum a thousand dollars of plowing whether we used it or not so we went from zero to a thousand in one year yeah and there's shit like that out there and you know some things did come back down lumber came back down but um but i i would find a hundred people who really know their inputs and and just ask them every year what happened and you know plumbers convenience store restaurant You know, pick a hundred diverse, just say what happened to the cost of running your business. And that would give you a read on inflation.

The idea of trueflation telling you anything is shit. I'm convinced that trueflation is an attempt to monetize the CPI. I read an article yesterday claiming that trueflation was coming in lower than the CPI. And I go, they're bullshitting us. They're just bullshitting us. and the chapwood index hasn't been updated not at all and and i think that was coming in too hot you actually did the math and said if chapwood is right what has happened to the price of things and it doesn't quite add up i think shadow stats is coming in too hot shadow sets too

yeah but um but it's not two and a half percent you wouldn't notice two and a half percent you wouldn't say holy fuck i can't believe i have to pay that much yeah you'd never notice it i'm looking at shadow stats right now i don't know we just got a we just got an invoice for some electrical work it came in well below our expectations but again this is anecdotal well i got a plumber in the adirondacks on a cabin he's a plumber by training he does electrical carpentry does maintenance opens the cabin for us i got him this year 25 an hour that's the guy i had to get a car back to ithaca long story but i had to get a car driven back to ithaca

five hour drive five and a half hour drive he said i'll do it for you i do that sort of shit all the time i said how much so five and a half hours round trip he says you pay for the you pay for the rental to get back i said of course 200 bucks i go no dude i'll pay you three there's no way you should charge 200 bucks for a 12-hour round trip right so there are places where i talked to the guy who checked our our cable coming into the cabin and he's he's like 26 years old

he owned a house he had a house I said how much did you pay for it he said 148 damn there is there is cheap real estate out there

but it it's in places where most people don't live yeah and therefore it's not a big effect on the overall inflation rate and that's like

going back to what we were talking about earlier about boomers in the uh mortgage rate and the price of the homes and trying to manipulate rates lower to make sure that stays high i mean this is that's really immoral it is and it's it's i mean this is why finally talk about bitcoin like people should be saving their money in bitcoin or gold or silver

whatever right and not their houses like you i hear the the all-in podcast guys banging the table like we need more supply we need more supply it's like no you just need to stop using your house oh paul said paul said we need to build more houses i go so let me see if i got this right you build more houses so people move in and were they living on the street right the answer is no and therefore now we'll have a commercial real estate crisis correct because there's already housing for these people i mean just look at austin austin florida because i just lived in austin for four years they expanded supply dramatically do you think real estate's starting to collapse melody writes is yes i'm not sure i can see it i think in

certain markets like where i am like no uh naples florida doesn't sound and my brother just sold a house he didn't have any trouble um you're gonna like bring it back austin like austin's like the prices are falling dramatically particularly for rentals okay because they just built so much supply during the covid era era where they had californians and people from new york like myself moving down there but a lot of us went back then they overbuilt i've thought about where i'd want to live if i didn't live where i lived it's uh i haven't come up with the gee whiz that would be really my first choice because i could go there i there's no reason i can't go there i mean i could retire today it's been a good year for you sir it has what a ridiculous it makes me nervous it's so

good um yeah off camera i'll tell you how good um i don't want to get the i don't want to get the gen zers mad at me for being a greedy boy i know one thing you said in your letter is that you're uh allocating the treasuries keeping some cash in treasuries i'm about 50 percent liquidity yeah about 50 liquidity 30 30 plus percent metals and maybe even a little more and then just a smattering of equities normal equities yeah let me check my notes here what did you say so my risk assets last year my risk assets take away cash equivalents bonds can go up or down but I don't count them. I just say, look, I got 4%.

And take away my house, which is an expensive house, but, you know, it can go up or down, but I don't want to go down. So just the risk assets, gold, gold equity, things like that. 65% last year. This is ridiculous. Then I saw they did a poll. They asked retail investors with over $100,000 in the market. what do you expect on an inflation adjusted basis sustainably going forward the retail investors said 11.4 percent and i go you gotta get medical treatment you you've got to get a

cat scan you've got a tumor the size of a cantaloupe in there and then they asked the pros they said oh no no no more like 8.4 percent i go oh my god we have never ever come close to eight inflation adjusted never you know in a year sure but sustainably not not even close buffett puts the number to about four without including taxes well you had this uh in the note to gold return over 25 years over 1200 compared to 700 at of the s&p gold be gold ties berkshire halfway over 27 years yeah and if you're looking for like inflation adjusted returns like outperformance like i think gold's the best did you see the tables of the mag seven and how much they've made their revenues some guy gave me guff about apple and i pointed out that apple's

revenues have grown 70 last decade while its market gap grew 680 you can't do that your market cap has to track revenues period it doesn't have to in the short term but it sure as hell has to sustainably yeah i'll pull it up yeah this is actually a pretty crazy chart but we've been saying this for five years how long can it go on how long as long as it wants But if you've got two engines on fire near 35,000 feet, you can take it to 45,000. But as they say in the flight manuals, you will have enough fuel to get to the crash site. Look at those numbers.

So start on the left. There's the revenues, 370% market cap. The reason I use market cap is because that takes care of all the buyback shit. That's just the total appreciation of the total value of the company. almost double. Amazon is actually pretty good. Amazon is really the rock star. Look at Apple, 70% revenue, 680% market cap gain. Microsoft, 160% to 830%, right? Meta, Meta is actually doing okay, but Meta started from a bizarro starting point. Look at NVIDIA, 1,200% to 24,000%. Tesla. Oh, oh, Matt. Excuse me. I was not going to matter.

I think matter, by the way, got companies like that. I think they get a ton of money straight from the Pentagon. I think I think I think they're not getting it from clicks. And then the other funny thing is, look at that tweet below. I actually did that same analysis for Dell just one day on a whim. And Michael Dell jumped in on me. Look at J.P. Morgan, 180 to 470. Yeah. This is not sustainable.

Unless you want to argue that 10 years ago the markets were dirt cheap and they weren't. The only thing that's going to sustain is that they keep printing money, right? No, because both of those respond to the printing. You can't get out of that mess, right? You can't – a K-Shiller PE of 40 compared to a historical norm of 15, you print. You're going to print the numerator and the denominator. You haven't changed your valuation excess at all. You flat out have to correct the price.

You have to correct the price. Unless you want to buy an asset that's PE of 40, price to return 2.5%. Yeah, well. And no one wants 2.5%. This is actually, this chart below this. which then you take taxes and fees out of this margin debt is pretty so so i i question whether margin that's driving the market or whether the market's pulling on the margin debt i tend to market the margin that's driving the market but but you could imagine the margin that going up

when the market's going up say oh yeah so momentum chasers right um all these charts go to the chart with the uh with the horizontal red lines on it the chart from hell uh this this chart to me blows my circuits uh it's it's further down i think keep keep going down keep going down it's it's keep going keep going you'll see horizontal red lines keep going i'll spot it as soon as you hit it, I'll see it fast. You scroll fast, I'll see it. That one. Okay, that's the inflation-adjusted S&P. Those red lines are from peaks, in which you go across, and at some fateful day, some number of years later, you get back to that exact same price one last time, right? Those red lines are 40 to 75 years long so if you own the 29 top you are even capital gains inflation adjusted

not taxes not dividends you're even capital gains in 1981 damn which means if you own if you're an expensive market you're in trouble if you own the top you're fucked yeah this is explains 50 now now here's the question i like to ask see that last red line at the top based on those other five are we not going to come back and test that 2000 peak one more time the ai productivity gains will allow it we're going to until they stop an age of abundance until they stop and then it'll find its way back because the 20th century had a lot of a lot of gains too. 20th century was a pretty cool time, right?

Here's one I love. The story I love is the Gundlach story where he says there's nothing more transformational than electricity. You can talk about AI all you want. Electricity is absolutely top of the food chain in terms of transforming civilization. The electricity stocks did well,

as you can imagine, when electricity started to pick up speed. They peaked in 1911. Electricity was just getting started. So if you're owning AI stocks, you think you're going to catch these huge gains going forward. Your gains might all be in the rearview mirror already. Look at that NVIDIA and Tesla. Yeah.

You've already got those gains. Those gains are gains pulled forward from the future. They're priced in. They're priced in. You know what they're going to do? One year I made reference to the forward 2040 earnings estimates. why would you ever use forward estimates people say well that's because you're trying to project how much the value are i go let me see if i got this right forward estimates you're completely

making shit up whereas trailing estimates you actually have numbers and you're using the make shit up estimate i don't give a damn if you're trying to figure out where they're going to go you're making shit up and i get pissed off at the guys who talk about corrections look at the Goldman chart go to Twitter and look at the Goldman chart this chart really reveals it Goldman Sachs

yeah GS I just did this yesterday just picked it up yesterday just hashtag GS well just not in the year in review just go to Yahoo or something it's as good an example i've seen of a correction

all right do five-year goldman chart yeah so so from 2020 late 2023 the president goldman is up 200 3x in what two years yeah how is that possible was it that dirt cheap back then now let's go to 2025 early that correction right there in 2025 did that correct anything the term correction implies repairing something something is out of kilter you fixed it if you put your thumb right over that that dip just put your thumb right over that dip is there a shred of evidence that that corrected anything no you could just erase that and just draw a straight line through it you go yeah of course now you really want to see a cool and if you can find it the dow 1900 to 1940 it's an amazing chart

1900 to 1940. Search DAO, 1900 to 1940. I've used it several times. And I got this one. It's not the right one. can't find the exact chart i mean i have a chart that covers that time but not just that go for it just bring it up for fun just let me see bring up the search bring up the search do the google search images and i'll find it

uh keep going down keep going down keep going down there's one that's just so good keep going down obviously google's not picking up my writing uh no i hate those semi-log charts those drive me crazy right um there's a purpose for them i'm not seeing it i'm not seeing a good one so what you see is is you see this sort of straight line in which it goes way the fuck up in 29 goes way the fuck down in 32 and then goes back and then just moves forward and the whole thumb thing all over again where it just but this is but the log this uh yeah that's okay that's okay now now now that's a fucking correction yeah that's a correction got way out of whack got way under whack came back to normal

yeah oh oh that's the log i i hate the log the the 1900 and 1949 logarithmic one you you see it so clearly this one uh that still looks that's logarithmic still i can't find it let me see if i can find it just so i can tell you how to get to it I showed this to an editor of The Economist he goes holy fuck I've never looked at that there it is where 1929 to 1940

no I need 1900 it's got to go back because you've got to see the correction um um It's not picking up my goddamn year in a row, that's for sure, for sure. Here it is. This should do it. I'll show you.

There we go. no it's still logarithmic oh no it's not logarithmic oh that's price and gold and grams of gold yeah I don't like those charts at all I'm not finding it at all you're hiding it from us

um yeah I've seen one of my a couple of my year in reviews I've used it twice And it's just so compelling where you go, that's what a correction is. A correction is not something that goes down a lot and then it gets back to a new high two years later. If we're 200% of our historical average valuation, a correction has to correct price and attitude. And if you come down 60% or 70%, you've corrected price. If it bounces right back, you've corrected nothing.

Nothing. what you've done is you've given investors the sense of invincibility the complacency bubble argument i make is that investors think the feds are going to save them someone's going to save them it just can't happen well and i guess a and for 45 years that's been true well development that would um point to maybe the feds not coming to save them anymore as a squabble between pal and Trump. But that's a minor thing. The examples I use is Mao killed

80 million, Stalin killed 40 million. You think the state's going to protect you? Bad shit happens to the peasants. The only reason they protect you is if they fear you. Do you think they fear the peasants right now? Not yet. Not enough.

Not enough. Actually, they might. The Fed has shown in many of their sayings, a number of Fed governors have shown a fear of a recession. Now, previous Fed governors, it's like, fuck, get over it. They happen. It's like drinking too much and then projectile vomiting. That's what you do. Recessions clear out the debris, period. Now, I can make the argument that some intervention in the 30s might have been productive, because when you correct a huge mistake like they did in the 20s, which was a vast credit bubble, that you do huge damage correcting it. Maybe the banks didn't all have to go under. Maybe there was some moderate. Lend dearly, I think. Who is it? It's

Save what are otherwise good banks that have a run going on, but make them pay dearly for it. Here's what I'd like. Here's the rule I'd like to put in place. Tell all the banks, pass losses, every bank, define the C-suite. I don't know how you do it, but you say, okay, here's the definition of a C-suite. The top 10 most highly paid guys in the company say, if we have to bail you out, you're going to give back five years of all your compensation. They're going to behave themselves, aren't they? Yep.

but you never do no i mean again we're talking about there's no accountability when's the last time anybody went to jail or was actually held accountable so one of the books um one of the books about the the gfc which also didn't correct anything if you look at the gfc in my year in review we got back to historical average valuation we didn't get cheap we never got cheap and we stayed there for about a month and i thought i was dreaming but spitznagel said it Grantham said it, others have said it. We got, should we say, reasonably valued for about a month. And that's not a correction.

After that catastrophe, we should have done some real damage and we should have gone lower. And instead, we gave investors the sense of invincibility. We said, they can stop anything. It's like sandbagging the Mississippi River for Katrina. Yeah. And that's like, do they have one more in them after COVID? I don't think they do.

See, that's my bet. My bet is, and I think the Fed must be terrified that they will try to intervene by dropping rates and the bond market will go the other direction. Which already happened. And it's already happening. And so I don't think they dare intervene. Because if we discover the Fed is powerless, then the markets will really shit a pickle. but the other thing is if you look at the last two big recessions

the GFC and the dot com the Fed started cutting rates almost to the day at the top and they stopped cutting rates almost to the day at the bottom so people say well Fed cutting rates is bullish I go no last two times they cut rates it went down 50%

aggressive rate cutting is a catastrophe yeah What has the market been since they cut rates in the fall? Let me see. I think they're trying to tap the rates, hoping that somehow. They're trying to bleed a bubble, right? That doesn't work. No.

It goes emergent. Any physical scientist will tell you when he gets displaced way away from equilibrium, once it starts to equilibrate back, it is out of control. It is the fires in California. It's a volcano, it's earthquakes, it's avalanches, it's chemical explosions in the lab. That's why you want equilibrations to occur steadily. When the markets get out of whack, you want to let them fix so that you don't have a fatality. Yeah.

But they've refused to. They'll continue to try to refuse to, I believe. But I think they'll have to step back this time. I think at some point they'll just go to the out of the splash zone and they're just going to, they're going to do an Andrew Mellon moment and just say, you know, why don't liquidate? And really like, is it really going to affect the bottom

of the economy that much? And so most of these people don't own these assets. No, they'll lose their jobs though. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. They'll lose their jobs. Yeah. It'll hurt them badly. yeah it always hurts them badly yeah right they get hurt coming and going the average the average 70 year old boomer median median 70 year old boomer who is by definition on the cusp of retirement because they're losing their marbles they've got fake fucking knees right everything's gone south 70 is not the new 60 70 70 and um this the the median boomer has It's $450,000 of net worth, $410,000 of net worth.

That includes real estate because they probably have a house now or a condo. And it's estimated that about $200,000 of it is actually investable assets, consumable assets. The most they can afford to take out of that $200,000 per year is like, I did the math wrong. It's like 4% of $200,000, 3% of $200,000. Yeah. I got that math wrong. I think I fucked up that math. There's something dead wrong there.

I just had a memory of a $22,000 estimate, and that's just dead wrong. By the way, the median boomer also, median 7-year-old, also has Social Security of $22,000. $22,000 from Social Security. That's correct. Plus $8,000, that's what? $30,000. They've got to live on that. Yeah, it's not going to be easy.

Not going to be easy. You heard it here first. I've got to run here. It's been a great way to end the week, though. Well, it's always fun, Marty, and we'll have to do it again. I'm reading a bunch of books on economics this year because I think this will be the year to talk about the carnage in the markets. I think it'll be I think that's why Andrew Ross Sorkin wrote 1929 he's trying to get ahead

of the mess I think someone whispered in his ear he's from running the SEO well I'm not even convinced he wrote the book I'm not I he the audio book he talked about McKay's famous treatise and he read it supposedly and he called it Macad and I'm going Andrew you know better either that's an ai voice that has faked me out it's a good one or you don't know what you're talking about and the latter would not shock me in the least and i would like to think he's smarter than that um he's a cornell grad he once accused me of having a typo in a tweet which i said that's not a very that's not a very um meaty counter-attack coming at your uh coming out of typo instead of the argument coming out a typo instead of the argument yeah i was unimpressed

that he used a typo as his counter-attack well um if the market does uh turn into carnage we'll come on and talk about it talk about the by the way it's not going to be fun to watch roman proverb uh the vanquish weep the victors do not laugh no don't dance don't dance don't dance they're trying to hold the Nasdaq green by the skin of their skinny skin chinny chin chin today they're still beating on my medals this year trying to get them back in the red

I think this is I think gold and silver headed way way higher I hope so kind of I'd rather get 10% a year the uh all right we'll catch up i gotta run yes peace the love for you okay thank you for listening to this episode of tftc if you've made it this far i imagine you got some value out of

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