TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #708: Why Silver Doubled in 60 Days with Josh Phair

Episode Date: January 26, 2026

Marty sits down with Josh Phair, founder of Scottsdale Mint and Wyoming Reserve, to discuss the global metals war unfolding between the US and China, why silver has doubled in two months, and how the scramble for critical minerals is reshaping the financial system. Josh on Twitter: https://x.com/JoshPhilipPhair Scottsdale Mint: https://www.scottsdalemint.com/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBz Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bit.ly/4pOv2L4 Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ SLNT https://slnt.com/tftc CrowdHealth https://joincrowdhealth.com.tftc Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free if you talk about a fed just gone nuts all all the central banks going nuts so it's all acting like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean that's part of the bull case for bitcoin if you're not paying attention you probably should be well it's been about a year uh since we caught up and you probably do need security guards with guns now because the metals complex has had one hell of a run uh silver just this morning went over a hundred hit uh hit over 101 at some point cold's approaching 5 000 and i had to reach out

yield because as i was saying before we hit record uh i'm convinced that those in the know of what's going on with the metal flows know the actual story of what's going on because it seems pretty big right now um it's without asking any leading questions i guess just jump into it what have you seen what is going on with the the metals complex as a stance today yeah i would say i mean clearly We could talk about all the monetary reasons, the expansion of debt, all those things that are really taking place. And frankly, what started really around the time of the Ukraine war, I think it set the stage for what we're seeing here, which is a exit of globalism and trade relationships, which are not just broken, but we're now in war over resources. and then the resources that are critical to the future related to energy, AI, power, and military are forefront. And you kind of put all those things in together where people all want the same asset at the same time.

That's what an auction does. If two people want to buy something and they're willing to pay a higher price to get it, that auction goes up. Well, if you're lucky at an art auction or you're on eBay and you're the only one bidding, prices prices lower so it's a situation you know really what's happened um it's just you got it's a geopolitical and so i've been talking about as as it's a metals war i was right around i'm actually flying out to to europe on sunday here a couple days i think it was i was coming back i think i had a hat on i think some people are like oh man you're not very professional i was like man i'm on a 10-hour flight like uh you know coming back from europe and i just put a hat on

and i started talking about what was happening and it was the gold moving to the u.s and and i kind of started to put together the the my a little bit more of my macro thesis of of what what was going to happen and a lot of it is why i moved my my uh what's now scott still meant i moved from arizona um over 18 years ago i founded it i moved it to wyoming and then i started another company called the wyman reserve which is a tax advantaged foreign trade zone vault vaulting operation and you know when you have the macro thesis and you see the chips change i i love to put put things on the board and you move things around and i started just talking about what i'm seeing unfold and you know really what we've seen you know kind of fast forward

um a little bit here with with silver that will cover really it it it it is china it's u.s banks it's u.s government that's what's driving that's what's driving the numbers right now but i also think it started the ukraine war when assets were seized so and i think this is even interesting in the digital sphere because i you know is what is seizable and what is not And so when Russia's assets, when we're talking balances at the Bank of England, whether that was physical gold, whether that was fiat currency, whether that was some oligarch's boat in a different port, the assets were seized. And I really think most of the BRICS nations looked at that and said, well, if that can happen to them, that can happen to us. in you know if we look at the ukraine war it's it's clearly a proxy because there's it's it's just it's just there's not a lot of movement it's just there's unfortunately a lot of death and

money and money laundering and and stuff but china's really the one behind it all behind russia because of if if russia were to fall china's now next and so trump's tweet it was december right around christmas of 24 he he hadn't taken office yet he'd want just won the election he gave a oh gosh sorry my phone wasn't turned off he gave a really interesting um tweet out and i don't think it was properly covered he said to warning to the bricks don't start a new currency and don't back it. And I think we could all get our heads around, okay, the BRICS might want to try to create a competitor to the U.S. dollar. I think we can all get around that, but I don't think people pay attention to what he meant by back it. It was gold. And so at that time,

and what that means historically, if you think about it, whoever holds the most gold essentially has made all the rules this is just throughout history i mean it's this goes back thousands of years and then after world war ii even gold is the settlement layer for the debts of everyone and that's why bank of england has held all the gold uh over the last you know for decades it's had the most gold in the world. And now even countries will pledge some of their gold as loan facilities through the World Bank for developing countries. I mean, so it's very much part of the financial system. Then you have this beast, China, whose military and economy has been growing decade after decade saying, hey, we want our gold in China. We don't want it there.

And so that had been going on for a few years under when Biden was there and no one was really paying attention. What I don't think people were also paying attention, and I came from the risk management side in the mining industry, so have done some corporate risk management work in mainly, not just the U.S., but Latin America, a little bit in Africa. So I'm pretty aware of, you know, resources and companies. And traditionally, I would say it was the U.S., Canadian mining companies and Australian mining companies were kind of some of the biggest players in that arena. China over the last 20 years did a really good job of getting in, in particular, into Africa. And they start cutting deals. And they said, hey, we'll build you an airport.

We'll build you schools. We'll build you a port if you let us access to develop this mine. it to do to or access food because i mean china is just this massive machine so really and now we're starting to see the coup you know these these military coups in in in africa that are probably going to pick up like who are they aligning with you know are they you know unfortunately africa is a playing ground of resources uh and and you know throughout history And it's just a mess of problems. But China mopped it all up.

And so I think what happened was Trump administration came in. And you can even go back to his first term. One of his biggest things he was worried about was computer chips and says, hey, what happens if we lose Taiwan? So he decided to help bring two massive Taiwanese companies into Arizona. them so there's two multi-billion dollars ones on the north end of the town of the valley and ones on the south and so here we are many years later i don't even think they're they're not fully online yet but it takes that long to develop but i mean at some point i think we can here we are in 2026 this could be a year taiwan could go down it could it's it's definitely

not a zero percent chance of anything it's probably going up and so i think the trump administration immediately and i and i felt that i saw it because i i work with the banks i work with some some some government work i see metal movement and flow and i'm like the amount of material and it started with gold coming to the u.s it was under the guise of it was tariffs the tariffs are coming um but if you're a country who's lacking in something who needs something are you going to put a tariff on that if you need it for your manufacturing no you tariff other things and so all this material was coming to the u.s but it kind of felt like to me it was so big it was bigger than a bank it was bigger than a company and it was so disruptive

to the london market that they were having gold delivery delays right around this time last year and into the first late into the first quarter if anyone is that disruptive into the financial markets you get on the knock you get a knock on the door by some agency commodity futures trade Commission. It happened to George Soros in the 90s. It happened to Warren Buffett. No one is immune. They both tried to corner silver, by the way, or not corner it. They took too big of a position, which kind of get into what's happened today. So if somebody is buying this much gold and it's disrupting the market and London's panicking, but no one's getting a knock on the door, it's got to be the federal government. That was the same time Elon Musk was saying,

And, hey, back when he was doing Doge, he was like, let's audit or not. Trump says, hey, let's have a look. Now, we haven't heard anything since then. And I think probably my last podcast, I said my take would be, is it a good chance it was pilfered, right? Over how many years it's not been audited and 50 plus. Some people might say we don't need it. It's there. We just tell you it's there.

Who knows? Who knows what? I mean, we have seen so much government waste. uh you know the daycare stuff our politicians unfortunately um on both sides of the aisle are known to spend money or take money or line their own pockets unfortunately maybe not all of them but so who knows what what took place so so that that started early you know early 25 i mean I almost felt like it was almost as if his team was already in contact with the banks before he took office. It was so coordinated. It was so big.

And then when he took office, immediately the tariff agenda hit heavy, early, early 25. And then it kind of came down into what's going to be tariffed at what rate and who are we going to do it to? And we're still having this topic. It's really not going away. And then comes up this whole critical minerals topic. And let's do a review. What's critical to the infrastructure of the United States? So kind of going back to the knowledge of, so if you think you need computer chips for your economy years ago, what about medicine? How much medicine is made in China and India?

Where does the U.S. get? It's pretty much everything is made in those two places. And I do believe that this administration is taking its future a little more serious than previous administrations. And that goes back probably decades. And it's also because the U.S. has been beat up, you know, fleeced. Europe is fleeced. And look, Europe now is a hot mess in so many different ways. So you think about if you're saying, hey, we lost out on Africa for the most part.

We need to lock down the Western Hemisphere. And I actually was putting that kind of in motion, North and South America. And I do a lot of work with the Caribbean central banks. And I started noticing, and I'm down, unfortunately, I have to go to places like the Caymans, St. Kitts, because we mint a lot of their gold and silver coins. And I'm noticing military increases down there. And without saying too much, I started to realize they're doing what the Chinese have been doing, which is cutting deals, making sure they're aligned with what's going on in the region. And I would say for the most part, you would say the Caribbean definitely is heavier U.S.-centric, just historically. However, there's a few islands.

There's a few places where the Chinese were building ports. they were building hotels they were doing different things that you go okay maybe it is benign but that's influence that's influence over you know who knows what and then we watch you know suddenly second half of the of 25 the the us's military presence is increasing and the it started in southern caribbean really heavily and then obviously we just took out the venezuelan leader just a few weeks ago at the snap of a finger and i feel like that's that's just the start of latin america it to me it's going to go all the way down and what i've been talking about why silver is going up so hard really really since around thanksgiving so you

had i don't know if you were aware most people were either sleeping in after their thanksgiving day or they're out shopping black friday or who knows the comics was shut down for a piece of of Black Friday. There was a server error. The cooling room wasn't working, so they had to shut down gold and silver trading. And I'm making calls, what's going on? No one had ever seen it. It didn't make a whole lot of sense. But what we did notice is there was a huge request. What we did notice is someone had put in a request of withdrawal for so many ounces of silver that it was almost like, is this a mistake? And I think it was, don't hold me to it. I think it was like almost like a third of the silver that

was in New York was requested. And then suddenly the thing freezes. It started back up and they shut down options tradings, everything shut down. And then suddenly, you know, it comes back the Monday morning, there's no withdrawal requests. It's gone. And everyone's like it must have been a sort of mistake we don't know my personal take is it was the chinese they were either testing our markets or just wanting a lot of it in one shot and i'm guessing whether the u.s government was directly involved the banks were and i think it was jp morgan and they probably said hey you can't take it from us but we'll get it for you in other markets and at that right at that point look up the price i think we were in the 50s and

here we've doubled i mean for silver to double in less than two months this is historic and it's not even that volatile it's just like every day every day what i actually think has happened and i have been talking i've been talking about this is that the jp morgan owns and controls the largest stock about silver in the world. A lot of people say, oh, well, they're always short. Well, if you have inside knowledge based on someone who calls you, that someone's a big buyer, could you flip your position in a moment's notice? Banks are profit centers. So I think what they did was, so we call it in the industry, they threw a blanket over all their inventory and said, none of this is for sale and then they went long you know because they they they're always using

you know whether doing covered calls just outright hedges and then these banks also control the mines that they're buying financing the mine the material so a lot of times people say oh well that bank is net short but they actually bought the they bought pre-production ounces that are coming out of a mine every month so it's really just maybe they're just hedging and they're not and It's on a naked short. So there's a lot of misinformation out there. And now this new AI slop on on X and YouTube is just there's so much. It's all like half truths and information. And you've probably seen it and on all sorts of topics. So, yeah, that that took place. And I do think the Chinese are China is the highest level, but also India.

And I'll get into why are they buying so much metal is going back to the military. The U.S. is restricting or the ship. So we heard about members. Tankers were being seized from Venezuela. It's not just oil. We have plenty of oil. Oil is important. Absolutely. That's a metric. But there's no doubt that Latin America is where most of the precious metals that that that's that that's a huge piece of it. So a lot of that, what's called concentrate. So when you, you typically, a typical mine either produces something like, think like a 40% grade. Some of them can internally do and produce something.

Maybe if they have an onsite, a small smelting operation, they can get it to a dore, which is more like a 90% concentrate. So the refineries in the United States are only, they can't take concentrate. because of EPA rules. So smelting is basically, just think like burning. You're basically burning rock. You're burning it to separate the materials. That's the first step. And then you do basically chemical and electrical processes

to refine the material down to a high grade. So most of the smelting in the world is China. This is really wild. So if China's getting choked on raw material, are they concerned about their manufacturing? Are they concerned about their military production? Yes. So a lot of people are hearing about the Chinese have export controls on silver, and they do. Why?

It's because their feedstock is being, it's under pressure. So the U.S. is basically locking down Western Hemisphere. We can cover Greenland. All this is really correlated to two things. And I'm going to go with the military of the future is tech. It's drones. It's heavy-duty satellite. I mean, you can look up what metals go into a Tomahawk missile. If you don't have these minerals to do these things, you can't keep pumping things out. So China restricts their metals on outbound. And so they're now reviewing who is buying the raw material, where is it going.

And one of the big buyers was India. So India is like, wait, we can't buy as much as we need for our manufacturing from China right next door. So now India is on the open market buying silver as well. So here you have J.P. Morgan who says, threw a blanket and says it's not available. U.S. then is pressuring raw material coming out of Latin America. China restricts. Now you see why silver is going up every day. That's this.

It's really this simple. And all the other factors we could talk about, the monetary, the government spending, yes. But this is why it's so acute and it's why it's so happening. So I think I posted today on X. this this is not going to stop until china in particular china stops bidding so when they come up for air and say we got enough for the moment then we we will probably see you know it's almost like who's going to blink first like how much do you have and but the thing is every time it's dipped a little bit it gets bought up and that's the other thing is that we're in mercantile banking

So if we have – if globalism is dead and we no longer trade well, you now have banks who sit in the middle. Most – many, many banks are multinational. And so they will trade and buy. So a lot of these guys – and a lot of these bankers can't even go on TV right now. They're not putting out research reports because they got – they have an order in. And what that order is, Marty, is I have an order to buy so many of something. I got to accumulate it quietly, build a position. And so they're buying every day.

Don't let it go up too much. Let it come down. And then they hit it again. So if you've got, and I think the U.S. government's probably involved in it too, because they put it on the strategic minerals. So they're probably buying. China's buying. JP Morgan's in the middle squeezing everybody.

This is, it's incredible. It's an incredible watch. So I think I did a quick video about a week ago and said, hey, we were, I think in the 80s. Now we're at just over 100 today. And I'm like, this thing could go to 150. It could go to 50. It could happen all like in a matter of a week or two. It will be volatile. But I don't think, I think if we take a look at the whole complex, it's really happened in all the minerals, all the metals. And silver's just been running a structural deficit for years. It should not be this. It should not have been this cheap to begin with. And so if you look at cost of to mine something, the primary silver miners have not been profitable for like forever, which is why the stocks have underperformed. And you kind of look forward, you go, well, it's just like farming, right? If farmers can't make money, they're going to stop growing crops and then demand. If demand doesn't change, but supply goes down, prices shoot up.

So, yeah, that's kind of what's happening. um that's that's that's that's what is probably the biggest driver uh right now well i think that's a big question is how long does this go on and and really uh uh hearkening back to your comment about trump's 2024 december 2024 tweet about the bricks and the gold currency i think another thing that happened over the last 12 months is uh china i forget if it was the pboc or some ccp linked entity putting a ton of gold on warrant at the shanghai exchange which is from my understanding a signal like hey we have this gold we're going to prove we have it we're going to put it on warrant which signals we're going to put it to

work in some way so we're not backing down trump is that a correct assessment of that that move yeah so i so i mean obviously i'm kind of it kind of started with gold it shifted you know shifted it to other minerals right now. So silver's the one under, under the spotlight right now. And you, you are correct. And the reality is, is you have to, you have to basically, and I think that's why the monitor, the monitor, I would take it. He knows there's a monetary reset coming.

We can, most of us agree with it. The world economic forum believes in one vision for the people. I would say Trump probably represents the technocrats. I'm not saying, you know, we could all decide. It could all go very Orwellian. So I'm more of a liberty, freedom, who knows where we'll be in the future. But there's no doubt that there's a battle about how is that great reset and what are the mechanisms, what are the control factors,

what are our lives going to be? Are we going to live in 15-minute cities? you know or do we have programmable money you know europe's about to roll that out um that could be freezed paused um blacklisted i mean there's so many things happening but if so if you get all the resources you also have to keep the resources so i mean whether you think it's gold or bitcoin if you don't control the bitcoin mining could Will someone conquer another nation and say, hey, I'm taking your resources, such as your data centers, your mining rigs? I mean, yeah, totally could.

We're playing, I mean, U.S. just moved right into Venezuela, moments notice. Now he's knocking on the door of Greenland. So can China just do this to Taiwan tomorrow? I think the answer is yeah. So we're entering like – I would say Axis and allies are being aligned, and some countries are moving quicker. And then you've got nations like Canada that's not paying attention. Like Carney's doing deals with China, and you're on the border of the United States. Like that's a game – and I would say he represents the World Economic Forum side if we –

That's right. Yeah. I mean that's why there's a really interesting battle, but he's just – he's not getting it. i would say mexico is probably going to get it they're a narco-ish run deal and i think the venezuela was a shot across the bow and then the united states may undertake cartel military action for the sake of drugs it's for the kids right yeah yeah this is this is like i mean i grew up playing the risk board game you know that's hey uh i'm not a fan of war By any means, we've lived in, for the most part, I'm in my mid-40s, you know, fairly peaceful outside of 9-11 and some Gulf Wars.

But, yeah, we're entering, I think, dangerous times. Words matter. But what matters more is what you do. And that's what I think. You know, so going back to China, hell yeah. They are loading up on gold. They are building vaults in all the BRICS nations. I know this first and foremost, was contacted for consulting a couple of years ago through someone else that got the contract to build vaults in a number of these countries.

There's not many people that build vaults in the world. And, you know, so you get calls like that and they're building. Yeah, you're right. They're going to set up gold in all its locations. I think you've got one. It's going to be all throughout Southeast Asia. And they're going to try to do the best they can because China's got problems too. China's economy's got problems.

They're not – the U.S. has problems. We all have problems. And so if no one really trusts, they're trying to go to a more trustless asset is what's happening. And they want out of, call it the U.S.-centric system. Suffrakes Healthcare Open Enrollment has started. It will roll through the end of January. Opt out of traditional health insurance, which doesn't care about you. It's impersonal.

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right here on my desk. I've been reading through it again, Gold Warriors. I've not read that one, but it's a good one but uh it feels like very similar in the sense of uh there's a war for gold right now and uh it is it is very interesting to watch behind the scenes because i mean from the monetary perspective you're getting on back to like the gold on warrant shanghai exchange and setting up the vault infrastructure i mean it's pretty clear that china's sticking their hand up saying hey you don't need to use the dollar system to settle anymore we're going to set up all these vaults put cold on warrant you can technically do trade in yuan but it it's going to be backed by gold you can swing it to your your local currency or holding gold easily it's

happening right in front of us and they built the plumbing before internally they started promoting they they have a gold amusement park in china to promote yeah to promote gold holdings of the Chinese citizens and it's going to be my next comment of what what's driving it um but then they required that insurance companies hold gold on their balance sheets like those are things that western banks don't do western banks you know you can walk into bank branches in Canada and buy gold and silver bars at the banks and my company produces some of it um for TD Bank for example but in the u.s that doesn't that doesn't exist gold's gold's gold's a relic it's a it's a it's a pet rock you know those those were the headlines on wall street journal a few years ago

trying to put the plumbing in before and they're doing it and so yeah and now i don't know if you've seen videos of the chinese people buying physical metal they and their gold in the malls it's not stopping and so i think if we look at i don't know if you've seen you know as a as a nation take even a smaller country as it goes from a third world to a second world to a first world they the consumption of energy cotton for clothes goes up energy uh you're using higher tech cell phones so all your your resources per capita go up well not only that but now they've got money And so a lot of these Chinese businessmen, it's not just party members that have money. It's like the country's got legitimate money.

And so they're consuming more and more things. And so now here's also what's happening with silver. Silver was kind of used just as an industrial metal, not so much a precious metal. And now as it's going higher in price, it feels more precious. and I mean what's wild is I bought my first silver when it was like $4.50

an ounce so you could buy you know what was a 100 ounce bar let's say it's the size of this phone you buy that for $450 well now that bar is 20 years later it's stinking 100 grand well you can think like in the eyes

of foreign cultures that had gold as a precious metals you know indians have gold in their dowries and so suddenly silver gets a little more interesting for people to want to own and i think that's what's driving this as well is that in the in you know 20 years ago 10 years ago the only markets that really mattered was u.s and europe that would drive if there's some financial event silicon even even just a couple years silicon valley bank goes down the chinese don't

care about that well now everything's like it's it's changed it's it's and i think we've seen it even in the bitcoin space you know how many people own bitcoin in other countries and it's interesting to watch i guess estimates of where things are mined those types of things it's it's it's spread and it's not just it's not just the u.s that controls it's just not u.s citizens that moves markets um same thing with stable coins that you know that's a gigantic growing marketplace so um yeah that's a driver that's not going to stop and so this i would say and i'm i'm also involved with people that consult for the biggest central banks they're not stopping by gold you saw the news from poland this week i did not i did not

Poland announced either a 20% or 25% increase this year in their gold holdings, which would make them one of the most elite gold holding nations in the world, like a top 10. That would take their reserves up to 37% based on current value. 37% in gold. Check this out. I believe roughly a third of what they're buying is going into New York. When you start thinking.

historically war escrow financing poland's billion building a military they're on the front lines they're really not aligned with the eu it wouldn't surprise me if they leave the eu so the central bank but they're not going to stop at 37 percent the u.s dollars clutch right it is and so whether you believe it's going to be one asset or another asset frankly a lot of people don't know where to put it and i just kind of look at these big players are buying gold on a regular basis and they're there this is like it's a kind of an easy investment right now even at these levels i'll tell you why because these entities that are buying it and i think this is kind of even the headwind for bitcoin at this moment is it's kind of like michael saylor was

doing doing fantastic for a while getting getting things going but he's taking out debt to make purchases and trying to tell other people hey to do this and obviously there's a big push you know for strategic reserves and getting governments into it well why why do everyone governments to get into it because they have unlimited fake money that's that's what's And so they can just print fiat every single month and buy whatever they want until the economy topples over like Zimbabwe. But for the most part, that's what India is doing. That's what Poland is doing. They can just issue more, buy more.

Switzerland has been doing it. Switzerland has been doing it. Now, this is also interesting. When you buy gold, the new Basel III regulations, it's a 100% risk-free asset if it's in physical form. I believe it's 90% if it's in a paper form of gold, like an ETF. So now they want the physical. That officially triggers this year, right? At some point this year?

Yeah, it was supposed to be last year. It's been delayed a little bit, but a lot of the banks are frankly positioning with it. So they're modifying some of their holdings. And so it basically just think like it boosts their credit. And I and some of the headwind, you know, I think, you know, poor and I love, you know, what's going down in El Salvador and, you know, with with Bukele. The moment he bought Bitcoin, he got put on the nasty list with bankers. They didn't want to give loans. It was like it was as if it was worth nothing and then worse when he did that. and so they didn't even look at it like an asset and so this is i think this is this has been some

of the headwind for seeing other nations do it in a big way obviously i think we're seeing um is it bhutan is doing some interesting time i think there's gonna be a few that are like hey let's be a little unique let's be a little different maybe we can get ahead of the curve um ethiopia has gotten into bitcoin mining in a big way yes units talking about it yeah Yeah. And so it's fun to kind of watch the various and those guests that don't know while I'm in the precious metals business for nearly two decades and then mining for that. I've also been in the Bitcoin world as well for quite a while and hold it on my balance sheets at Scottsdale Mint and have for longer than Michael Saylor has been in it. So I like it. I like it. And I'm just not a maximalist. I'm a classic asset guy and I also like the new school. And frankly, why? Because what happens with Bitcoin and Bitcoin does become the dominant player. I don't think gold goes to zero. But let's just say Bitcoin has a gigantic role to play.

I want to make sure I'm in it. That's a, what do you call that, a just-in-case bag? But realistically, it has performed quite well, amazingly. It's obviously been a bit boring in the last, you know, 2025. But that's just what happens. Everyone is expecting these cycles to always perform exactly. and um but yeah so i'm i'm i'm i'm always open you know you always want to be open-minded watch history um pay attention and and move you know kind of going back to the the board

you know move move the chips on the board as you see it and try to adjust your your personal life your business whatever there are cracks in the foundations of your money governments around the world are managing record debt the same way they always have by debasing their currencies and the effects are already showing up across markets. In his report, The Debasement Trade, James Lavish explains why the shift is reshaping portfolios, why gold tends to act first, and why Bitcoin often follows as the implications become clearer. On January 28th, James joins Unchained Live for the Age of Debasement, a presentation and Q&A expanding on that research and exploring what this environment means for long-term investors. If the playbook no longer explains what you're seeing, this event

helps put the pieces together. Register now and get early access to the report at unchained.com slash tftc that's unchained.com slash tftc sup freaks this report was brought to you by good friends at silent silent creates everyday fair day gear that protects your hardware we're in bitcoin we have a lot of hardware that we need to secure your wallet emit signals that can leave you vulnerable you want to pick up silence gear put your hardware in that i have a tap signer right here i got the silent card holder replaced my wallet i was using ridge wallet because it secured against rfid signal jacking uh silent the card holder does the same thing it's much sleeker, fits in my pocket much easier. I also have the Faraday phone sleeve, which you can put

a hardware wallet in. We're actually using it for our keys at the house too. There's been a lot of robberies. They have essential Faraday slings, Faraday backpacks. It's a Bitcoin company. They're running on a Bitcoin standard. They have a Bitcoin treasury. They accept Bitcoin via strike. So go to slnt.com slash TFTC to get 15% off anything, or simply just use the code TFTC when shopping at slnt.com. Patented technology, special operations approved. It has free shipping as well. So go it out no it's it's so fascinating we just hit 102 on silver i got the chart up here it's uh and that's it's so you can go many routes from here i definitely want to touch on greenland but like thinking about like the dollar being cooked like it's obvious that to me at least

and to many others that it's cooked there's something going on it's just being expressed in gold in silver prices and maybe bitcoin at some point later this year um and i feel like what are your thoughts on like the trump administration's understanding of this and because it's publicly at the posture like we want the dollar to be strong i think a lot of the push for the stable coins is to drive demand well for treasuries and but they're also sort of like if they are actually pulling physical gold into the country they understand something's going on but they have to play this narrative game uh as all this is happening i'm i'm gonna go with so i had And one of Scott Stillman's customers on a wholesale level rented an office from Trump more than a decade ago, pre-politics.

You know how they paid the deposit? Gold. He took it, and they made a press release at him. And he was there standing holding it. He likes gold. And the funniest way is he, you know, Trump, Trump is like the master of memes. He's, he's, whether, whether he does the memes or he, he does things to have memes happen. Look at the Oval Office.

That thing is all gold now. Like all the frames, the frames, everything. And actually, and I've got it's a it's a friend of mine did a owns a he owns a statue production company and they just put in a gold plated. If you look at the Oval Office, you see a constitution with an eagle on top of it. He just he just made that for for for Trump. He did some stuff for him in Mar-a-Lago. It's also gold-plated. I almost feel like he's signaling – even when they say, look, there could be other messaging when they call it a golden – it's the golden era. It's the golden age.

But it also could be a little memetic, a little bit. And look, when I say the dollar is cooked, that doesn't mean we won't have a U.S. dollar. It just might have to be reformulated in something. And that's the other thing. And I actually got blamed the other day on a podcast because I said never bet against America. And so oftentimes I think people that are in alternative assets, you get so disappointed with government. And yes. But I also say is like, well, what's the alternative?

What other government do we trust? And then the United States has vast resources, just its geographic location. even if there was a world war and it didn't come out well, the United States, just like Europe, a lot of Europe lost, but it was so strategic that it had a role to play in the future. And that's kind of the sad thing about a war. Like even if Ukraine and Russia chop up whatever, does it really matter to the farmers in the fields when it's all said and done?

Maybe, maybe not. It's just, it stinks when people have to die. But like the United States, I would say, yeah, Trump gets it. And I would say this administration is way more pro-business. And so, oh, I forgot to mention, U.S. Department of War. I put out an article on it. I think I was one of the broke. I was like, how did everyone miss this?

The U.S. Department of War put $2 billion into a smelter in Tennessee. It's a $7 billion smelter. Okay, check this out. So going back, you can't take, there's no smelters in the United States in 50 years. So it took the U.S. military to say, we're going to do it, and we're going to put it in Tennessee, and we're going to use the Koreans' technology to fast track it, and guess who's financing the whole deal? J.P. Morgan. And now that material, obviously it's going to take a little time to get built out,

but that material can be routed into the United States instead of going to other countries, and it can be processed. And so as smelters, you're processing those minerals. Guess what else you get? Rare earths. All kinds of stuff. And in that deal, the Koreans had to pledge. You can look at it. It's called Korea Zinc.

And if you want to type in Korea Zinc smelter, Tennessee, or better yet, go to scottsdalemint.com. We posted the article that kind of blew it open. And it basically says because of this deal, the U.S. gets more rights to more offtake out of Korea, more and more strategic minerals. So this is where it's like, how long could a bank go if they're pre-purchasing production? So they're locking it. Who knows their terms on all these deals? It's really quite wild. And so as you see all this going on, you're like, yeah, it's taking – so I go back.

Yeah, this administration knows what's going down. I feel it. I see it. I'm off to Europe. I'm speaking. I'm off to Europe on a couple days, and then in a few more weeks, I'm speaking at an event in Florida. I'm on a panelist with the World Gold Council and one of the top, Dan Golly of TD Securities,

who's kind of took it a little bit hard because he kind of thought it's over with DIP recently. So I'm on a panelist with those guys. And you know who's in the crowd of these events now? Government, Treasury, Representatives. State Department. Yeah. and without saying i can't say too too much but it's not that they just woke up they've always

been but it is so important to this administration that i'm not i haven't seen anything like this yeah um trade deals relationships you know basically they're building the they're building making sure the rails are in place for the future for manufacturing for jobs for security if you if you lose the ai race you're you're done you you will not be the leader of the future so you need you need all of it yeah it's uh it's a mad dash for everything right now it's it is a mad dash for everything and that's why it's it's exciting to own things where there's a hidden hand behind you like the biggest of the big and the big who could just fictitiously buy it and that and that's what we're seeing and so i would say

To the listeners, what we're watching right now, I would say some could call it a new world order. I would call it – it's a paradigm shift. We are entering a new – we're going into a new financial system. We're going into a new trade system. We're going into – everything's going to change. And frankly, there's going to be a lot of things that we're not even talking about that's going to happen that we're going to learn about. So I don't see this – it's not – I would say this. This is not a trade. It's not a trade. This is a shift. And so it will be volatile, as I mentioned earlier, but I feel pretty comfortable if you want to talk about the fair Sinclair ratio.

So, as you mentioned, why I'm in this business is, so, I graduated with a degree in risk management out of Florida State. I'm just, I'm 22. I'm working for what's now Willis Towers Watson. It's a big insurance broker. And I remember I met this old-timer guy. He was talking to me about copper. It was like 40 cents a pound. He's talking about the Chinese manufacturing, their consumption of minerals.

The Olympics are coming. They're building these dams. They're like, he's like, son, if you buy copper right now, you're going to be a wealthy man. I'm 22. I have not a lot of money. I put, I maxed out all my credit cards and I bought some, I bought some mining stocks. And you know what? When copper broke a buck a pound, I did quite well.

And kind of understanding that, suddenly I said, hey, I'm going to go after mining companies as a career. And so I was 24 years old, landed a billion dollar gold mining company. And then I just solved their problems, did all kinds of things from trade credit, ensuring their accounts receivables to I did political risk. I did projects in Latin America. I did a plugarist program, the $120 million deal in Venezuela for a gold mining company. I might put it in a book at some point. It was nationalized, and it went to the World Bank for about 10 years. It settled just a few years ago for $700 and something million.

And I was involved with that company years ago. So I'm just way too young experiencing, learning things young. And so that one mining company got into another. And so, like, if you look at the biggest silver miners and copper miners, I worked with all of them in my 20s. And now I'm friends with some of the CEOs of these groups because they were younger when they were at those companies. But one of the guys that kind of inspired me on the precious metals side was a guy named Jim Sinclair. And he, in the 70s, was probably the biggest precious metals trader in the world, but not necessarily all that well-known. He made a call in 19, I believe it was 72, that gold was in the 100s.

Gold's going to go to 900 at the end of the decade. 1980 hits 887 50 was the top day after i think he's on like bloomberg radio or something and he said it hit my number i'm out paul volcker just raised four full percentage points 4.0 in one day he goes gold's done for a while i'm out so he was out for basically two decades 9 11 hits And he starts watching the U.S. government spend, spend, spend, spend, spend. And he goes, I'm back. And he goes, gold is like 200 and something. I think it's been traded 225, 250.

And he goes, 1650. 1,650? That sounds like a penny stock. And he goes, you guys don't remember me, do you? So I'll go back. Oh, he was such a good trader. Paul Volcker hired him to liquidate Pump Brothers' silver position. Really?

To unwind that. Yeah. So he's well-known. Oh, and he was also on the cover of Fortune magazine, dubbed Mr. Gold. So he comes back and says, hey, gold's going to $16.50. But he was like, you guys don't remember how I came up with the number. There's a ratio. And he goes, during times of financial crisis, foreign central banks value the reserve currency of the world in gold as what's the foreign debt of the United States and then the state of gold holdings and at what prices it need to be to balance.

And, you know, in 2011, he said it would be, you know, about 10 years, 2011 gold hit 18, it went over 1800. And, Jim, I would say I used to fly to see him, talk with him, and he was on, I would say if he was alive today, I think he'd be revered, proud. It's just he just wasn't that well-known, but he was on CNBC and Bloomberg a lot. You can go back and find him. And so I was on a Kitco podcast last year and I'm like, I'm bringing this ratio back and I'm going to call it the fair Sinclair because we're going to go higher than he would ever believe. And I want to kind of help like provide those guideposts. So, you know, you can go on Grok and say, tell me about the fair Sinclair with a fair with a P ratio. It'll kind of explain, you know, that mechanism. And right now, that ratio is at 35,000 per goal.

So, I was born in late 79. So, it hit that ratio two times so far. Is it going to hit it again? But I think this is where it gets interesting, Marty. Do you think the U.S. is going to have more debt coming, more foreign debt, or is it going to just stay flat? Yeah, it's probably going to go up, right? So realistically, that number is going to go up. So it doesn't mean it's a straight shot, but I think that's where when people start to think about,

So, and I've been in the space long enough, like when gold crossed 1,000, people are like, no one's going to buy an ounce of gold. And it's, now it's, you know, it's, everyone buys it. Well, not everyone, but it's vibrant. And the same thing with silver. Silver hits 10 bucks, no one's going to buy it. 20 bucks, no one's going to buy it. And it just kind of keeps going. And a lot of people go, this doesn't make sense.

It's speculative. these prices that they don't make sense but these are historical ratios and if and frankly if you were to reprice a lot of these assets in s&p terms and all these things you're like man golden soap that's what i was saying in the early in our talk it's catching up to where it probably should have been frankly just recently and the reason was going back to the auction there wasn't enough people in the in the in the arena bidding so now you got the chinese government who's a force and then you got the united states they're all bidding on it so this is it's finding so it's finding a new equilibrium and if you're a consumer who's you know you're just retail and you've

owned it i mean how many grandpas probably bought coins you know in you know for two dollars four dollars and i know because our vault like we're getting calls from people they're like i have millions of dollars in my basement what do i do with it and we're helping to get it transferred in to a vault that's audited statements and if something happens to grandpa you know for example you know their estate knows what they're able they got liquidity they know it's real it's been authenticated well these are not problems that people didn't have that problem before so it's kind of wild watching you know the industry kind of been proven right i would say people were just early and i then that's frankly that's the same thing probably with a lot of other assets you can

be early it just wasn't the right timing um whether you you know how many times even take bitcoin how many times do people think they bought the top only and you just just give it a few more years and and you know what it wasn't a bad entry and dollar cast cost averaging in so it's it's been kind of fun to watch this journey i thought it was all going to go down by 2010 like i thought the dollar would end like just and here we are it's 2026 and and i would still say this is going to be a long journey to me it feels like 2030 2032 look you know you kind of even look at when people are talking about trying to do a reset but you know things could be delayed this thing could keep going, you know, much longer in terms of the journey. But, um, so that's how I'm kind of

seeing it. So yeah, that, that fair, some clear ratio thing, it actually, it means a lot to me because I would say Jim was a mentor and he kind of pushed me into the space and how I got into the business. I was originally working with mining companies, but I kind of had to wait for them to do something to have fun with it. And, you know, 2008 hit the financial crisis homes where, you know, real estate was falling apart. Silver was, you know, upper single digits at the time and you couldn't get it. And, but I had contacts in the industry. So I started at my guest bedroom in a condo, started buying silver cause I could get ahold of it and sling it on eBay. So my wife was my first packager my first employee um and uh you know off we go so now i'm in a facility where

it's i think we're under 60 000 square feet right now so and still expanding and so i feel blessed from the lord for for good knowledge patience it has not been easy uh always in life and you know think sometimes sometimes people buy things out of greed and i think you got to have passion and so i in there and there were times where you know friends tell me josh i buy gold don't no don't uh because i didn't you know it was a it was kind of a dead asset for a number of years and and you know where you could done better out and better in real estate and so i don't like to give exact predictions on on when to buy and when to sell it but it is something i'm long-term passionate about i believe in and it's so it's been you know as i'm getting a lot of congratulations

from from people and i'm like not not really i i feel good you can you can be in a business that's just kind of grifting let's call it grifting off of people but we're an asset that could potentially change people's lives or protect them and and i still believe that you know going for it and that doesn't mean that it's always going to be dead um dead accurate on your time and whatever but it's it's fun to be in a space that you you you have a passion for and you believe in for sure i know that well hardly similar why i'm in bitcoin and uh i mean i don't want to get too preachy you mentioned the lord and i think uh i think there is like a moral aspect to this too Like, I think the truth is on our side.

I think the world should operate on sound money. And the people look, there's always knuckleheads in every industry. But I would say like a lot of my, a lot of my customer base, you know, through the years, really good people, a lot of people that would call Jesus Christ their savior. It's people that maybe didn't get as bamboozled during COVID. it's people that are you know sometimes people would say oh you're you know i would say the conspiracy theorist thing obviously we all know um a lot of that is is is uh fabricated by alphabet

agencies but a lot of it's being proven true but i think there's a there is a good quality of of people in in the space in in in bitcoin as well and it's sometimes it gets there's gravitas uh people out there that a little a little too bombastic in in their success or whatever and um but i would say yeah to to your point um it be a steward of your knowledge be a steward of your resources your skills uh in in what you do is and just for me it's give glory to the lord and what you do yeah same here and i think it's just getting started too because In fact, everything we just discussed, if we're going into this multipolar world with increased social incohesion and saber rattling and a mad dash to win the AI war and the energy war and reshore, they're going to have to print so much money over the next decade. It just makes too much sense.

There's no other way to do it, right? Yeah, and that's also why I don't root for the downfall. Look, I want the United States to succeed, and maybe there's a pathway through all this to the other side, but you can't stress it. But I would say to people that aren't positioned in some of these alternative assets that we're talking about, Bitcoin included, is you're on the outside looking in. And I do think you live here, you work here for the most part, if you're watching this in the U.S., you're really tied to the U.S. economy or wherever economy you're at. And so oftentimes some of these assets do better, I mean, you know, do a little bit better than, you know, when the rest of the economy is not doing great. and i i there's no doubt i think there's been some element um you know with with on the crypto world uh you know liquidity's gotten tight you know they you know it obviously boomed in you know

kind of that 2021 it was like the roaring 20s of of 100 years ago in 21 and that'll come back again when people have you know and right now people are just feel pinched you know they're pinched the grocery store and everywhere but you know there's going to be liquidity events to come and they're going to inject money in into the system and people just got to figure out what to buy again and you could go buy a new car or go buy some go buy some sound money so that um i would i would say yeah it's going to be a long journey ahead and it's not i i still don't think it's too late that it's it's it's not too late uh you know in in this no not at all and i think um another thing too i think it's important to separate the uh

the government from the people to like i wholeheartedly believe in america because i believe in the american spirit despite what the mainstream media and um a relatively um depressing time in terms of like so like yes like the the silent depression if you will obviously deaths of despair and um obviously wage growth isn't keeping up with inflation and there's a lot of people struggling out there but i do still believe despite all that the american spirit is alive and well in that sort of wildcatter go get stuff done go out there and make something for yourself and for your community still exist is unique thank you for saying that I would still say yeah why the institution of our our our nation is struggling mightily and could falter

um the the construct of the people and there are maybe not a lot of great people here too But I would say on a percentage basis versus anywhere else in the world, yeah, don't bet against America, the people, you know, and I think that's, yeah, that I think gives, I think it does give hope to families, to communities. You know, you can turn on the news and get really frustrated and it sure feels like the algorithm is pushing stuff to make you feel really mad and frustrated. And so sometimes you've got to realize, hey, what are they trying to get me to think like right now? Yeah, completely agree. I think that's a good note to end on. Don't short the American spirit, the people of America. I like it.

We will prevail. I like it. But like I said to someone else, never bet against America, but you still might want to own some other assets. For sure. I think America is going to be rebuilt. We're going to have a golden age. I think the mimetic sort of normalization of the golden age is real. I think I'm optimistic we will reorient the economy around sound money,

whether it's Bitcoin, gold, silver, a combination of two or three. I think it's there. I mean, particularly with the software tools that exist for Bitcoin, it's never been easier to incorporate sound money into your business, into your life. um i think we're yeah we're on the path to do that you got to stay optimistic too you can't do never do no dooming in the chat no no you can be real but you got to be optimist and i think there's always something to smile about in your life and i think even you know for those listening

seriously there there is there's a friend out there somewhere there is there is hope out there um and even like yeah the way social media is you can get warped into the the doom the doom circle so yeah totally agree with you on that all right let's go out there and win let's go have a good weekend safe travels to europe and uh we should catch up we shouldn't wait almost a year to catch up let's catch up uh absolutely maybe in the beginning of this summer let's do it marty appreciate it all right peace and love freaks thank you for listening to this episode of tftc if you've made it this far i imagine you got some value out of the episode if so please share it far and wide with your friends and family we're looking to get the word out there also wherever

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Thank you.