TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #710: Q4 2025 Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis

Episode Date: January 31, 2026

Marty sits down with Matthew Mežinskis to discuss their quarterly monetary base update, analyzing Bitcoin's power law trajectory against gold and silver's record-breaking rallies, why Bitcoin remains historically undervalued relative to precious metals, and geopolitical considerations around freedom and autocracy. Matthew on X: https://x.com/1basemoney Porkopolis: https://www.porkopolis.io/topmoney/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBz Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bit.ly/4pOv2L4 Promo Code: TFTC99 Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ SLNT https://slnt.com/tftc Lygos: http://bit.ly/3ZtQLwp Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free if you talk about a fed just gone nuts all all the central banks going nuts so it's all acting like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean And that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. Matthew Mazinczas, year 2026, year seven of us doing a quarterly monetary base update. Welcome to year seven, sir.

Thank you. Thank you, Marty. It's year eight for me on podcasting, no, actually year nine, actually. I'm close to you, so that's year nine, right? Very exciting. Congrats to you. Congrats to you as well. Happy New Year. Hope all is well. It's a crazy world these days, lots to talk about,

but I figured we can start out with some nice charts on what's happening in the gold market, silver market. It's grabbing people's attention these days. you know the the gold bugs were were very angry for seven eight years as bitcoin was tearing they were screaming suppression the crypto bros were taking all of their gains they said but uh now i don't know are are your bitcoin friends in the states crying or are people managing uh my bitcoin friends are managing uh because we we know how to uh reinforce each other say hey it's a long-term game absolutely a little a little a little consolidation of price is nothing

we haven't seen before but there are people freaking out there are people there's depression in the bitcoin price now gold and silver have taken the wind out of the sails there's no bullish catalysts on the horizon we are doomed it's what many people think the market manipulators are now coming out of the gold mines of the silver mines uh here's an interesting little you know bird's eye view like to keep a big picture let people relax so this is the trailing 12 month mining revenue of the bitcoin network and a couple things i'll say actually just right off the bat here is This is fairly bullish if you think that the cycle is possibly not over or, you know, the details of the four year cycle we can get into. But basically, you know, if whatever the length of the cycle is, Bitcoin generally has multiples higher revenue.

OK, so here's the 2013 top nearly had a billion dollars in minor revenue. Okay, this is just taking the trailing 365 days of the issuance and then fees, which are very, very small proportion of that still to this day. Then you go six, seven, eight X higher here in 2018 on a trailing 12 month basis, right? Which includes all of 2017 gains, tops out at about $7 billion. There's a slow moving chart, right? It's a yearly trailing 12. then we go to 2021 we're at about 17 billion dollars for the bitcoin mining revenue this total revenue for bitcoin miners and then you know we've had this long build now for three years

with the etfs and everything else uh from well let's say two full years 2024 2025 and even though you know as most people know november december was supposed to be the the four-year cycle again we're still at 17 billion dollars because of the halvings right the halvings play a big part here uh but i would say this is actually fairly bullish because i mean it's possible that you know whatever however long the cycle lasts or whatever that this is sort of topping and we go down but if you think about the cyclicality of bitcoin in the past it's possible that this will will keep going and we change you know maybe we're closer to the power law which we can talk about uh we didn't have a big boom so maybe we

won't have that big of a bust to use that word but anyway i think that this is actually fairly bullish considering that there's some technical difficulties matthew's back so okay so so yeah so to the extent that we say that there are cycles and booms and busts uh with bitcoin i find it very interesting that this boom which has lasted now i mean over three years right uh or over two full years for sure um is you know our annual mining revenue even including the last having or including the last having is about the same as it was uh after the 2021 peak so i'd actually say this is fairly bullish for bitcoin but time will tell you know how this cycle plays out we could talk about that whether you know since we didn't have

a huge boom we won't have a big bust we could talk about that in a second but anyway this is bitcoin mining revenue all right so it's 17 billion dollars at the moment uh trailing 12 months now our silver friends are really loving life i'll show you the price in a second but let's look at the silver that comes out of the ground which is 800 to 900 million ounces a year let's put that in dollar terms trailing 12 months it's always actually uh competed with bitcoin um remember a lot of silver we sort of discount because it's used in industry and bitcoin if If you discount that silver, Bitcoin used to be more valuable than silver quite a long time ago, actually, like four years ago.

But now it's smaller again. So the silver bugs are loving life because the mining industry as a whole is about double Bitcoins, $34 billion at the moment. They got $27 billion back in 2011 when price went to its prior all-time high of $56 or whatever it was. all right now let's look at gold dwarfing bitcoin and silver all right i mean this is this is all-time high it was quite a christmas for the gold bugs 400 billion dollars over the course of a year for

the gold bugs i was reading or just saw i actually didn't read it and can't be bothered with this stuff but you know at high prices gold mines that were completely unprofitable at lower prices all of a sudden become profitable or even theoretically profitable i was seeing a headline that one of the uh you know main gold bugs in canada eric sprott had some share in some mine that you know went up by billions in the last couple months and they haven't even started mining right so this is this is some of what markets do of course we have this you know some of these irrational expectations in the bitcoin market too but gold bugs are living life for sure so 400 billion dollars that's record and just for people that are maybe listening or not watching the charts

uh last in the last two years that's doubled and even then two three years ago for example february uh 2022 which is actually uh four years ago was 200 billion dollars and that was an all-time high so massive massive boon these prices for the gold and silver markets uh all-time highs but then just to see kind of where the oil markets come into this which are a obviously uh quite an important commodity just throw this in here roughly you're looking at trillions of dollars okay sorry again little connection as you see a lot of snow uh just looking at oil for comparison just to you know obviously a main uh commodity that the whole world needs no matter what the tree huggers say uh you know two trillion two trillion dollar revenue and this of course can

swing wildly on a trailing 12-month basis looks like 3 trillion or so has been the record ever per year uh during the madness that was coveted when you know when we had negative uh a contango in futures in uh oil went down trailing 12 months to about a trillion dollars but anyway we're at about two trillion dollars now uh on some fairly light oil prices which is not good for mr putin in russia anyway so that's a that's sort of a bird's eye view uh if you look at it right there you look at the tool tip 2 trillion for oil 400 billion for for gold which is a massive record like nothing normal but a massive record 34 billion for uh silver which again is a massive record and then 17 billion for bitcoin you know still a less than 20 year asset

class and certainly way less than that as far as you know being a mainstay which it is as we know you know it's not going to come overnight this is this is going to you know it's going to follow follow the power curve network at auction and it's just not going to be easy but it should be a fun ride to enjoy and uh and this is sort of how i'm looking at where we are in the big picture of uh of the markets that's why i love you you always bring the data in a credible context and to build on what you just said the fact that bitcoin is only 17 years old and already has trailing 12 month mining revenues of 17 billion half of silver's market cap which is a revenue multiverse revenue yeah

silver's revenue yeah i've been around for thousands of years i mean it's pretty impressive you know yeah uh let's take a look at silver price long term this is where the silver bugs i'm just curious i know they're very excited they're very excited but uh you can run these little percentiles as i like to do it's an exponential asset i'll just take off everything but the trend is it has evolved and where we are now so what you're looking at is the the the dotted red line is a multiple over the exponential trend plotted as a percentile so it has never been ever in the in the modern era which i'm counting as you know from 1971 which is obviously when gold started to float it's never been more than 5x the trend price

and it actually hit that in 2011 so 2011 was 48 bucks this is a monthly closed number april 2011 the trend itself was ten dollars so that's 4.8 x 5x rounded that is a record and we can see uh as long as we stay at this price or a little bit more this is the current price 112 bucks approximately uh it's a possibility we can take that out this month but actually not have four more days and the the the comparable level is 118 dollars so it's got a it's got a close above that but then i just have to ask you obviously right markets can go up they can go down how many silver mines gold mines look very attractive right now at these prices but might not be a few months from now or years from now and you can just see how there's really only three

spikes in the last 55 years right when the hunt brothers tried to corner the market uh in the early 80s the 2011 boom and then now so look i'm happy for them i'm happy for you i wish i had more silver to rotate into bitcoin i'm happy for the silver bugs but i would advise caution right here if you're sitting on some silver gains but matthew the industrial demand is going up exponentially with the ai energy boom yes it is it is it's a great conductor silver's just a fantastic asset um you know maybe central banks will start buying silver none of them have any silver at the moment maybe they'll start buying many possibilities marty many in all seriousness though um

the demand elasticity or the supply elasticity being driven by demand in silver? How does it compare to gold and Bitcoin? Well, I don't have a good chart to actually completely play that out. But I will say, if we just look at price,

which again, can certainly get ahead of itself, but we can establish a trend there's a you know there is an exponential trend that's going to fit everything so here against dollars all right this trend is actually take a guess marty what do you think i love when i ask you these questions right and i know you do too what do you think the slope of this black line is which is how you should measure your silver gains even in a volatile market what do you think it is 50 years got this it's not a great r squared 54 but you can see that it certainly fits the data what do you think the slope of that curve is like what's the annual

kagger yeah uh 3.5 excellent nicely done slightly under that just a little over three percent per year so again you can make tons of money catching the trend trend is always your friend i'm happy for the silver bugs but i would again advise caution and then to get back to your question about um so actually let's let's look at dollar first so let's go back to the to the power curve let's just look at bitcoin in terms of dollars and then we're going to look at bitcoins in terms of silver ounces and see the the wild time okay so as you know i've been showing your listeners this for and viewers for for many years i've been tracking this myself since like 2018. bitcoin Quinn generally follows a power curve, which is unique.

Most financial assets follow an exponential curve, straight line on log scale. This is not straight. Simply means it's proportional, more general growth that is proportional to itself, not constant growth like exponential growth. Which is, as long as it holds, it's probably a good thing. It's about 42% per year at the moment, but that's falling. And so the power curve itself is a little over 125K. It's 127K. dollars dollars all right for one bitcoin obviously as we know we're a little bit light

on that that last pull in into the model here i got 88k no 80 zoom in uh i got 87.6k and that is like the 45th percentile all right so the median would be the 50th percentile i mean you could say it's right on track right of course the big question is what's going to happen at the end of this year we can talk about that later like if we didn't have a huge boom maybe we won't have a huge bust as i said earlier we'll see but at least as of right now you know with massive institutional adoption bitcoin only gaining traction uh much better utility than gold or silver in our opinion i'm sure it's still it's still looking right on track okay that's in dollar terms now let's do this power curve in silver ounces

and this is just pretty wild so this is let's just go back let's pick a date like somewhere end of 2015 end of 2015 okay so bitcoin had never hit uh it only hit a thousand bucks once in 2013 wouldn't hit it again until the start of 2017. I actually can't remember 2015 price. So probably like 400 bucks here, 350, whatever it is. We can see it in a second. The Bitcoin price in silver ounces is 30, 31, 31 silver ounces to buy one Bitcoin back in 2015, not even 10 years ago. Now let's go to the worst days of bitcoin in the last cycle which were after the spf debacle all right he said he had a bunch of bitcoin didn't have one

end of 2022 708 ounces of silver to buy one bitcoin any comments just from that statement pretty impressive pretty impressive all right pretty impressive now silver's been on a tear as gold but silver's been on a on a wild tear so 700 roughly low 700s even high 600s uh because bitcoin was doing very bad relative to silver all right now bitcoin's still been doing fine in the last couple years but silver's been doing better so what you see is this chart bitcoin goes up but then bitcoin goes back down we're right about where we were interestingly a little bit higher 785 ounces but you know ask yourself like what's happened to the silver market in the last three years

versus what's happened to the bitcoin market i understand silver is a good conductor you'll be part of data centers you know now we're taking it uh we used to say that uh gold was better because it had no real industrial use. It was more store value. Now, I guess it's good that silver has industrial use, but putting that aside, 785 ounces of silver per Bitcoin. And if you look at this on a percentile basis, which is a multiple over or under the trend, and the trend is 5,800 ounces, all right, the power trend. So 96% R squared. We go with the bands, the bands. We're setting new lows for bitcoin in terms of silver so relative to the trend so the silver bugs literally at 800 7 at 785 ounces for one bitcoin relative to the trend this is actually the cheapest it's

ever been so this is the question i would put to you is you know for how much longer are silver bugs going to get this deal on bitcoin or are we just going to keep you know blowing this chart up it's a that's a great question it's a rhetorical question do you see our friend uh james checks tweet yesterday i didn't but he's great obviously what uh what do you say he sold he's he's been on this show talking about hey i diversify into precious metals gold silver platinum um but he sent a tweet out yesterday they went to the uh silver dealer to sell some bullion and he he was getting toppy signals long line of people waiting to buy talking about how how much they were up from their buys a few weeks ago uh and so there are some social signals out there that we may be

i mean if you got lines at silver shops yes i would say that's a very very much of a toppy signal uh i mean you could just look at the old uh god i have too many charts where did i just put it lost it you can look at the old dollar price and see that we're literally at the top of course like i mean it can double from here you know you can go from 5x the trend to 10x but it's just always a question of how sustainable that is going to be for the market uh down the road but anyway to to sort of finish the thought yeah i would say and this chart looks wild for gold as well by the way but not as insane as silver so silver literally every day that sort of it stays at its level and bitcoin stays at its

level or even goes a little bit lower this is the best um trend wise that the price has ever been not the best in raw ounces size as we clearly showed you know you could go back only less than 10 years ago it is only 30 ounces of silver per bitcoin so i yeah i don't see this lasting much longer but i'm happy for our silver bug friends because i'm sure there's even some overlap with our Bitcoin friends for their gains. So freaks, if you've been listening for a while, you've probably heard us all talk about BitKey. It's a Bitcoin wallet built for people who want self custody to actually fit into their lives. BitKey is a private multi-sig wallet that removes the biggest point of failure in traditional self custody, the seed phrase, no ceremony, nothing

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So go to slnt.com slash TFTC to get 15% off anything or simply just use the code TFTC when shopping at slnt.com. Patented technology, special operations approved. It has free shipping as well. So go check it out. There is. And I think a lot of the discussion over the last few months says gold and silver have gone on this historic tear. is is this the big one is it happening uh yeah i just had josh farron who runs the scottsdale mint in the wyoming gold reserve and so he's in the middle of the physical markets and he had some

interesting anecdotes of what he's seen behind the scenes in the physical bullion space for for gold and silver it seems like this push towards a multipolar world is forcing the hands of sovereigns like china for gold specifically to buy physical indiscriminately yeah but i'm not seeing much of a change i mean he might i mean obviously i'm not in the industry i just chart the general public data but um you know if you look at i'll show you a chart right here but if you look at the amount of ounces that central banks buy uh relative to the trend which turned around literally after the gfc it's like half a percent a year and it's not going up uh yes china's buying more yes you know even poland is buying more but the old world countries they're

not selling of course you know brit britain sold canada sold the geniuses like 20 years ago but it's not really changing so i'll show you what i mean here in a second so i find that argument also kind of interesting so here's the big picture all right if if the largest gold holders in the world which are central banks are going to move the market you'd think you'd see it in the data and this goes until september right um And this is actually, I need to actually take off euro area because I'm taking, hold on, it's like this, roughly. So it's something like 1.2 billion ounces central banks have. And that's, yeah, that's steadily increased since 2008.

But the rate of growth there is less than a percent a year compounded. So if you ask yourself, less than a percent a year compounded for central banks buying gold. 42% compounded per year price, which has been the case for the last two plus years, almost three years for the gold and silver markets. Is that justified? We'll see. If it's the big one, meaning, you know, fiat issuers, central banks start to see that there might not be a way out and that they need to revalue their currencies in gold regardless it's good if you hold bitcoin gold or silver because it is true i mean you know i remember we we interviewed tyler jenks uh rest in peace many years ago and he said you know it's always possible

if the main sovereigns want to revalue like in that sort of once in a hundred year event then if you're holding the physical it's much better than holding like an etf where they could rip you off but if you're holding the actual physical whatever the revaluation is you will you will accrete that full value so from that side yeah it's it's good to have some gold good to have some silver let me show you a competing chart which would show that there's actually plenty of room left at least in the case of the united states and that chart is going to be right here i show this chart a lot i i know you've seen it before but this is the old long-term view of what the fed holds versus how much debt the united states has issued so the peak

was nearly 30 back with the major inflation of covet times right the fed stopped printing the u.s kept borrowing now we can talk all the time about you know this is unsustainable it's not gonna work and i know that that's a you know that's a big big theme in the newsletter industry but the fact is the central bank now only holds 16 percent of the u.s's debt and that leaves room for the bazooka when the new fed chair comes in which trump we know what trump wants to do right especially with the midterms coming wants to keep interest rates low keep people happy the affordability word so again i'm not defending any of this i'm just saying uh these are charts to me that show like yes we know that the past 20 years have been

historically sort of insane for central banks you can see that here just the goofy asset purchases and the way this line just looks really weird but it's it's lower relative to where it's been at any time basically and you know the last 18 years 17 18 years so there's room they have room it's pretty impressive they've been able to do that i mean i guess in 2019 i mean last time we were at these levels that's when you had the repo spasm yep exactly and it had to turn around and probably you know we actually saw it did look at how it did turn around it's like kind of the nice hidden signal here as you see that the repo spasm happened and then they started to buy more and that was before all the madness which happened in february march 2020 so

uh and you can see even here from the last point of date i have it's like a little bit turning around in december which we knew was going to happen um but still plenty room and so that's how i see it i don't necessarily see it as that the big one the five alarm fire yet um but i think we're gonna i mean in the next 10 years for sure with what bitcoin can do and i'll show you some more charts with that like we're gonna see we're gonna see wild levels for bitcoin for central bank balance sheets uh it's gonna be pretty wild but i don't see it honestly with gold uh you know you you correct me from uh you know i know you've been talking to gold experts and i'm not not one but there are no except for like china and even russia right with their horrible

genocidal war in ukraine they haven't been buying in the last few years they're completely bankrupt they have no money they haven't bought in five years uh poland is buying i would advise what what did poland announce they want to become like a top five holder or something like that uh i don't know if that's what they said but that seems far off at 15 million ounces but um they definitely said they were going to keep buying and they might maybe a top five buyer um maybe that was it yeah right but i mean like all the other big central banks they're not doing anything they have it uh of course we we don't know if the u.s actually has it hasn't been audited since the eisenhower administration but it is there theoretically um it's really only

right it's really only yeah it's china and and poland are the big the biggest countries that are buying which is kind of funny not even russia um so yes that adds to the speculation but does it you know does this much buying of gold from one country mean that gold should be going up 42 percent per year in the last three years something tells me this this might end badly for some people that might be over levering this uh this situation it could be the big one but there's a lot of other data here that shows in the fiat world they have they have left themselves some space i mean like you were saying earlier i'm very happy for silver and gold bugs and i do get uh some joy when i when i see the tweets we're going to 150 we're going to 200 for silver gold's going

to 10 000 immediately but then i just have like ptsd flashbacks to december 2017 when we thought we were going to 100k bitcoin um quickly got humbled yeah and i've talked about this many times with the old stock to flow uh nonsense but you know how people say uh one of the common tropes is that gold the gold silver ratio at the moment whatever it is i don't know 100x it's less than 100x now because of uh silver what's gold silver ratio at the moment let's just say it exactly is it even 50 which is gold to 5 000 silver's at 100 right so um if that number used to be like 100 right used to be 100 so it's already compressed right when people say oh it needs to compress more to go to say 15x which is the old gold

silver ratio that's way not the right way to look at it because the actual ounces in the ground right now the mining ratio both in the ground and that come out of the ground is already something like 8x so actually there's too much silver coming if if if 15 to 1 here's the point if 15 to 1 is your benchmark of the gold to silver ratio and so like gold bucks or so sorry like silver bucks saying this is this is going to compress that old ratio you know for the past 20 years of being you know gold being 100 times more valuable as far as price goes now it's only 50 that's going to compress all the way to 15 first of all it's not going to last secondly the mining ratio right now is already too aggressive beyond that it's like eight so there's 56 57 billion ounces of

silver seven billion ounces of gold due to the math i mean it it's about you know eight nine is that so we've already actually gone relative to the old ratio of 15 to one if that's your benchmark the mining ratio is shows it points to too much silver mining so that the point is that all these little ratios people come up with these ideas that it's going to go you know like you're saying 200 uh bucks 500 bucks so the ratio is going to go back to 15 to 1 it doesn't hold up uh number one over the long term when you look at the statistical multiples that we're talking about here um nor in the sort of mining world because the mining world would tell us that actually silver has been overproduced relative to gold for a long time and you're going to say

it's going to be even more produced now because of data centers whatever and the price is going to go up i mean maybe people are making a lot of wild claims about data centers as it is we're gonna have to see how all this plays out but i i have a very hard time seeing gold's gonna go back or sorry silver's gonna go back take all of those gains from gold get back to 15 to 1 and then stay there that's the point and then stay there it's just uh as you see here it doesn't work like that And then if you think of the incremental market cap increases that would need to get there, like where are those trillions going to flow from is one of the first questions I would have. Precisely.

You go back to this chart, you know, yeah, there's probably some gold, silver bugs. Like I said, the Sprott article that I saw, I mean, just loving life, making paper billions right now from unprofitable, prior unprofitable speculative mining investments. But now at these prices, those ounces theoretically are profitable, even though they haven't been mined. There's a lot to play out here, a lot to play out. And the beautiful thing about Bitcoin is Bitcoin does not have these problems, right? Because as they say, the cure for high prices is high prices if you want to buy more, right? Because price just stays up too long.

People come in, over-speculate, over-produce. Mines, which people think are really, really great, all of a sudden aren't when you realize that people don't want to pay these prices you know a few months down the line price falls after with all the competition equilibrium is restored bitcoin doesn't have that problem because of the difficulty adjustment it's actually the less bitcoins as we know that comes out every 10 minutes every four years totally different asset class in my opinion uh as we know everybody knows our opinions as far as the general directionality of bullishness there's much more upside that you can see from bitcoin

than even the wild and silver markets but i have to admit they're pretty wild right now pretty amazing i know they all had a great christmas i'm happy for them but be careful it is fun to watch it really is it's incredibly fun to watch it is i mean and again really digging into the relative sort of undervaluation of Bitcoin right now. Like, I mean, we saw it earlier on the Bitcoin to silver power trend chart, but just to articulate to people who are fearful out there that they're missing out on all the gold and silver gains. Bitcoin's doing nothing.

We're poking it with a stick saying do something, and it's not responding. Why should they not be worried? because the trend is your friend and you know just because we're at sort of record levels here of record levels of cheap if you're a gold holder if you're a silver holder and you're looking at bitcoin by the way i haven't showed uh gold here's gold so gold interestingly is not as cheap remember how with silver we're literally at the bottom like

the the cheapest it's ever been 0.1x gold is not there yet but it is under the 10th percentile and i just asked the same question i mean how cheap are we going to give gold bugs who've been so angry for the last 15 years how cheap are we going to give them bitcoin when bitcoin is such a liquid asset you know more and more people know about it every day it's growing from a network effect way faster than the gold or silver markets which are even though they're exponential growth they only grow you know one or two percent a year way different way different with bitcoin in all levels bitcoin you know we're looking at hash rate or price or addresses it's growing way way faster from a network effect um you just gotta ask yourself at what point are

we going to give gold bugs you know 17 ounce bitcoin prices when you know statistically that is a eight percentile event meaning 92 of the prices relative to the trend in history have been more expensive than that i it's a very what i really think is very interesting is it is a you know the gold and silver markets are kind of a good governor on the bitcoin price and they're you know they're showing how stretched we can do this right because the dollar chart in in power curve terms looks pretty normal okay we're a little bit below that 125 127k power trend right but you know how cheap are we going to give gold and silver bucks uh this bitcoin this these bitcoin prices for how much longer that's the that's that's why you know i stream every day

almost every day now and this is the chart that i just keep revisiting every day another interesting thing with gold right okay so it's a 17 ounce 17 and a half ounce price right now okay the trend is 65 65 ounces of gold so we're trading well below trend all right below the 10th percentile which is below 0.3x the trend if you only went back to that you know sad days spf days uh scam bankman fraud and all the other trad fi or non-strap what was it called defy nonsense of that year what was the gold price well sorry what was the bitcoin price in terms of gold it was actually still cheaper than now so this is where silver even looks more wild because it's about the same price but do i see uh bitcoin gold going to 10 ounces again

just have to look at the statistics like anything is possible anything is possible but i see it very very unlikely that we go back and test these levels again even if you look at this you know the zeroth percentile that would be 0.1 x the trend that's eight ounces of gold right now could we hit eight ounces of gold well every day that passes you know the power curve looks goes up still it's not like it's broken or anything it's just just gets stretched at these levels i have a hard time statistically it would be a very very rare event for gold bugs to get less than 10 ounces per one btc that's the question i've got a bet i've got a bet out there with the other matthew in my life matthew odell he's very bullish on bitcoin this year

i am as well but looking at these charts the gold and silver to bitcoin uh bitcoin to gold bitcoin to silver ratio we have a bet out there uh he thinks that bitcoin will hit an all-time high in gold and silver terms uh at one point this year at least i said ah listen i'm bullish on bitcoin i think the bitcoin price is going to go up the question is do gold and silver either not rise fast enough or fall to a point where we sort of intersect with the Bitcoin price and we hit new Bitcoin all-time highs

priced in these precious metals. Am I crazy for saying I don't think they're going to hit an all-time high this year? No, I mean, I would probably be on your side there. So what was his catalyst to make the gold and silver price sort of crash and Bitcoin explode? I don't think he has anything in his mind.

He's just super bullish on Bitcoin. he's a staunch believer in what we're doing here here's the thing here's the thing even if it goes back to the trend in gold that's already back to the 90th percentile in dollar terms okay you follow me so if i too many charts here but look we're only at you know a 20 discount discount uh well let's say 30 we're at a 30 discount of the trend right now right in dollar terms but in let's just stick with gold right we're getting we're at a 90 discount so if we go back to even the trend which is six thousand uh sorry this is silver isn't it uh if go back to 65 ounces uh of of uh gold per one bitcoin that's 3x which would mean i mean from

there just just multiply it that's you're in the you know 270 000 price range which would put us back in the 90th percentile that's just how the simple math works do i think that's going to happen i have no idea but i would say even getting to the gold and silver highs that would that's a pretty that's a pretty wild bet i mean what is what did you guys bet i gave him two to one odds hundred thousand sets yeah i gotta i gotta be with you on that one but regardless even if it goes back to the trend and we don't make new all-time highs in gold and silver it still looks great for bitcoin in dollar terms you'd be back at this level be back at the nine uh yeah so we'll see that's another you know we didn't really talk about i sort of dance around the issue

i'm still leaving i was i was always kind of a cycle guy you know i i was really thinking that on my podcast i'd be just in enjoying like counting how many days would be above this nine this last fall you know just like i thought we would it would happen we would make it there and obviously we didn't there's all sorts of people theorizing why is it you know institutional adoption um you know not using the chain as much all sorts of reasons it's quantum quantum yes quantum risk of course i gotta remember that one um nothing to take too light of of course there are people working on that but this is something that i've heard as long i've been in bitcoin with the quantum risk um i still think the cyclicality of bitcoin is in play

here but we're gonna have to see so i i'm i'm thinking it's i would i would still brace yourself for a soft year uh might not be as soft or as bad as uh you know prior cycles every four years but but I would hold on a little bit before calling the cycles completely dead. But that's just me. What's up, freaks? When you take Bitcoin seriously, you start with custody.

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i use salt of the earth i drink probably three of these a day with one packet of salt the earth i'm liking the pink lemonade right now it's my flavor of choice uh this is their creatine i've added this to my regimen they have it in these packets as well uh makes it extremely convenient if you're traveling you want to work out while you're traveling but you don't want to be carrying a white bag of powder and going through tsa it's very very uh nerve-wracking at times you have to explain hates it's not what you think it is it's creatine i'm trying to get my swell on um make you're staying hydrated i have become addicted to these it's made my life a lot better i can supplement this for coffee in the morning and be energized right away i can supplement i can bring

the creatine wherever i need to just put a couple packets in here before i head to the gym bring this to the gym drink out of a glass bottle make sure i'm not injecting any microplastics into my body go to drinksote.com use the code tftc and you'll get 15 off anything in the store that's drinksote.com code tftc you're a big believer in that uh mcquinton adoption and therefore its price appreciation is uncorrelated from any external variables and factors this is a power trend adoption curve network adoption but you gotta ask like going back to that fed chart that posts and starting to tilt up like how much could yeah do you think the animal spirits are just waiting for liquidity bazooka to basically ride a wave so here is here is a little sneak peek on

i'm gonna get some people have been asking all the time you know when can i get my charts and stuff and i'm gonna have a good a good app coming out in the next couple months a little sneak peek of what i'm getting to uh it's a little bit different setup than my current charts you know i've been following this monetary based stuff for you know eight years and if i would admit it if i thought that there was a direct correlation between the money supply and the bitcoin price i just don't see it i think the better way to look at the bitcoin price precisely is taking these percentiles around the power curve which is clearly a great r square network adoption. It doesn't tell you when they will hit. It just tells you when you reach

an extreme, that's an extreme level of risk relative to the trend. So you might want to pay attention if you believe in the trend. So we're hitting that extreme level of risk right now for silver bugs. You might not get an opportunity to buy Bitcoin this cheap again relative to the trend. 786 ounces of silver for Bitcoin. 10 years ago, it was 30 ounces. Do you really want to you know keep playing that game okay so back to the point this is the world's base money i have it like going way back even for the federal reserve but let's not focus on that so let's go from here and here we have bitcoins so i have two different things here i'm showing the u.s

right in the light green and the rest of the world in the darker green this is u.s dollar equivalent although of course you can't really see when some people are pumping or not because there's dollar exchange rates as well so i mean when they're printing a lot but this you'll generally get the idea okay so it's safe to say in 2013 bitcoin wasn't on the radar of anybody's uh you know on anybody's radar but both central both the united states and the world was printing money okay this is it now this is the world's printing press what you see here in green so you see the bitcoin price in 2013 did go up okay but then of course it went down uh while it went down the world kept printing notice the federal reserve actually stopped about

a year later mid 2014 and then did not print so now i'm looking at the federal reserve that line they're not printing at all and then 2017 the price pops december federal reserve still hasn't printed money but worldwide they were printing money so it actually lined up quite nicely worldwide and even we're just a few months off the world tapered off a lot in uh in 2018 all the way that started following the fed's lead to taper down the money supply because the fed was taper even before this, until we had that repo spike, which we talked about in September. And then of course, we had the big spike, which masked all of the problems with massive money printing in 2021. Okay, so here, indeed, again, Bitcoin's price pumped with a massive amount of money

supply. And then the price went down. And the money supply also went down. But then here's where the rub is bitcoin price has been going back up for the last three years but what has the global money supply been doing what is the u.s money supply been doing hasn't been doing anything and i don't so this is again where i just i caution people to sort of time time the markets with this money supply stuff i think it's very interesting i think yes directionally we're always going to have more money printed from central banks that's all they know how to do and bitcoin correspondingly will will rise but timing that is very difficult okay so this data i have uh as of september only this is actually the third quarter update marty i'm gonna explain that

as well in a second it's actually it's gonna become even that no no we didn't it was second it's gonna become even less uh so so this is i'll explain in a second the reason why this is uh it's because of the federal reserve itself so as you see here from the third quarter from what we have globally and nothing really changed in the fed for sure and other central banks bitcoin price went down as well during here so i would really caution people to like think that they could time the bitcoin price based on the money supply a lot of people do usm2 a lot that has nothing to do with anything usm2 is just retail deposits that are not um that are not checking accounts uh you know balance uh demand deposits

but you have m3 money you have institutional money there's a lot of different money here this is just base money which is analogous to bitcoin the printing press and of course there is like a correlation but it's not it's not just lockstep i mean bitcoin screamed in 2017 the federal reserve wasn't doing anything and no one was paying attention to the world money supply here except for me you know i just started to build it at this time but you can't just say that there's a great correlation especially when you go to this time after the 2020 uh one print 2020 2021 print when they started to lighten off that bitcoin still went up so the bottom line is the power curve is going to give you a better guide to where bitcoin should be but i would just caution about you know

trying to time the markets based on where m2 goes and where bitcoin's price is going to go because the money supply could go up bitcoin could also go up money supply could go down bitcoin could also go up that's what i would say uncorrelated asset dependent on it's over the long term they're both going to go up they're both going to go up and bitcoin eventually will take over which as we talked about if this you know when we get to the big one when we start to revalue into bitcoin that's going to be great but that time is not now um and i don't even think it's now for gold as i showed with the size of the federal reserves balance sheet compared to the total u.s national debt they don't own as much as they you know they own about half of what they did four years ago so

anyway that's that's that that's that point now on to um so many things to show you here why did it take me so long now to release the q3 numbers is because i want to start to incorporate broad money into this as well so broad money has these things like m2 m3 but the federal reserve they don't publish broad money anymore so you have to back into it you have to look at different uh exhibits that they publish and they're so slow now they've gotten even worse i don't know if it's a trump thing or whatever like it's it's way slow and to get all the data that i needed for q3 i had to wait until just like two weeks ago january so i actually you know people like following my stuff for the money supply i want to get it even sort of more locked down i think it'll be even more

insightful actually if you if you look further back with sort of a clear a clear view of what the total money supply and then maybe see what bitcoin did or what gold did after that so anyway that's that's kind of the main reason why i held off but uh over 37 trillion yeah i was gonna say how are you backing into these uh m2 m3 metrics right so there are various uh accounts of the the United States, the Federal Reserve still publishes. Those include things that were typically in M3, like the value of repurchase agreements, the value of institutional money market funds, and institutional time deposits. But they're all in different ways. Some are monthly, some are quarterly. You have to sort of just sort through it all. And then there,

of course, there is a caveat here that there's another traditional component of M3, which is the euro dollar, which is offshore dollars, which could be huge on top of that. And I don't have that at all. So the Federal Reserve stopped publishing M3 here in February 2006. And even the number that they published in February 2006 did not match my number. Mine is higher. There's just like something like 10 billion. This is higher than 10 billion. I should have actually the full title it's full total here but it's whatever call it uh 11 and a half or 12 billion at the time all right now we're over 37 sorry uh 11 and a half trillion at the time in 2006 not billion now we're at over 37 trillion and all i'll say about this chart is first of all again

understand there is an m3 money supply even though the federal reserve doesn't publish it even though all you see are these wild m2 charts which a lot of people don't know they revalued for legal reasons they're not even comparable with the old ones you'll see like this m1 and m2 chart in 2020 like shoot way up it's not more money printing it's them just they're so stupid i don't know why they don't like make this more clear but they're just reclassifying certain things that were in m1 before now in m2 it's just it's a complete mess so to make everything like backwards compatible you have to work through it so i have this for you this will be available as well uh when i get my my new data engine running for folks can you explain to us why bank reserves

and ball cash are negative three trillion right now yeah so i should just take that off that's uh the reason it's negative is just to show it's part of the money supply but that's stuff that we can't hold it's banks banks holding i go i'll get to it i should just take that off and look here so uh yep thanks it's a good point so the one thing i just want to say about the supply is yes it's growing this is how it looks there's euro dollars on top of it so we have to think about that um money market funds they're kind of like a stable coin so that's a not a huge balance in the in the crypto world today only like it'll share the yield with you though it'll share the yield with you though they will share the yield they will share the yield

caution caution that's all i can say why do you well no i mean dive in i mean it is pretty topical right now there's a big battle here in the united states about yeah being able to share stable coin yield between the banks and coinbase and others yeah um i heard novogratz talking to scaramucci about that i mean obviously novogratz is uh the big shit coiner but he's also lobbying in pretty in-depth in the process and as he was saying he said generally it's bipartisan issue and you know people are going to be on board with it but at the end of the day look it's just another revenue uh or sorry it's another it's another product that banks could use they're worried about like capital flight or whatever from their demand deposits but if it's a stable coin

and they can offer that product there are plenty of ways to generate loans or capital on top of that so i don't see it as being being a very different thing if the cbdc was really taking off that would that would cause concern which is why it's not being launched because then that be direct capital flight competition with your checking deposit which banks wouldn't have an opportunity to uh you know to partake in because it was cbdc which is why all the socialists want to do a cbdc and this is why also why the united states is not doing it so it's gonna grow it's gonna grow for sure uh you see all the debt that the united states has it's stable coins could take part in that but um it's going to be unsustainable at some point i do think it's

going to be an unsustainable system and as bitcoin but i think we're going to start really start to see the effects of that like 10 years from now 10 15 years from now because bitcoin's going to grow way faster than those asset classes are like even as insane as this chart looks right here you know grows in less than 10 percent a year you know closer to seven eight percent a year why do you think uh it's gonna be unsustainable stablecoin markets because they're exponential uh stable coins take yield yield is exponent is a compounding asset compounding assets are exponential exponential assets are typically unsustainable it goes back to the power curve even just take the silver price as you saw here right as you correctly pointed out not a great overall

trend line three percent per year a little bit more three percent per year when you have an exponential exponentially growing asset and all financial assets are exponentially growing all financial assets are exponentially growing you get a straight line on a large scale. I mean, I don't know what an unsustainable market looks like other than this chart. It goes to silver being $1 in 1971, goes to $42 in 1980, Hunt Brothers trying to corner the market, completely fails, going to a 20-year bear. Not exactly correlating with gold, but pretty close goes down to five dollars even four dollars in 2001 then goes up to 50 again in april 2011 down again and then here we are over a hundred dollars people calling for 200

500 silver there's a lot of speculation there's a lot of uh talk about revaluing other underlying assets that use this right like silver mines or silver companies and it's just the nature of compound interest and debt is that you get these booms and busts but here's the really interesting thing is that bitcoin does not follow that whether you price it in silver whether you price it in gold or you price it in dollars so bitcoin this is actually a really good thing people always wonder about the power curve or they don't sort of exactly understand what it means it just means that for uh bitcoin will still continue to do things like double according to a formula but it would just take longer to double which actually is a good thing that's how networks scale so like

the 2080 rule is kind of uh is is a part of this and i've i've used the example i'm sure on your podcast before is you know a network if you just look at networks like nodes and traffic you would have uh a power law is something where you have a few large nodes with many connections and then you have many many small nodes with few connections that's a power law that's power law relationship and that's how bitcoin scales as well but the wild thing is it does that even in time it does that with its price. And so I would say, Bitcoin is a way better bet over the long run, because it exhibits this sustainable growth. Technically, yeah, exponential curves are faster, they grow faster, but they're also very unsustainable. And they tend to be below,

you know, 10% per year in their booms. Of course, if, if actual price inflation gets more than 10% a year gets galloping then that's a bad thing and you also see busts you know happen even quicker there but it's actually just the nature of the thing so stocks gold bonds everything everything has a compound return stable coin yield which is just tying itself to a sovereign yield it's unstable i mean it's it can go on for a long time but and and you can get even after the bus you can continue the trend but the i guess the better word is to say not necessarily always unsustainable but just extremely volatile right which is ironic right because people say bitcoin is volatile but looking at this uh 96 r squared power trend line which i've been tracking since

the end of 2018 all right it is incredible i mean you could look at i can show you a chart where you plot the same power trend with only up to 2016's data and you're only like a couple thousand dollars off what this trend line would show after 10 more years of data. It's madness. It's really wild.

And the number, by the way, just to show you, you have to run and calculate these things, but basically it's every 12 to 13% increase in the life of Bitcoin will double the price. That's what Bitcoin currently runs at. So it's about over 6,000 days of Bitcoin right now. So 700 days more, roughly two years, price doubles. And as Bitcoin gets older, the doubling time will take longer.

But that should sound like a more sustainable base for growing things than the other curves that we've been talking about. Does that make sense? Yes, it does. And I think as you're describing this, obviously, we talked about power curve, network adoption, comparing it to things like the Internet. But I don't think we've ever actually keyed in on this insight, which is like it's so incredibly cool that with this sort of network adoption that we're observing within Bitcoin, it has a price attached to it to express the state of that network adoption, which is unique in a sense, correct? I think so. i mean the internet right uh people were attaching a lot of valuations to it uh usually in an

unsustainable way we saw that with the dot com boom and bust and um yeah i mean i think people have probably made that observation but uh you know that that this is the first time in history you can actually own a piece of you know a network like globally decentralized where no one had to gate keep you and i think it's it's it's uh it's incredible i'm i'm i mean like you man i mean i'm more and more bullish every day keep you know not financial advice keep some powder dry you never know what can happen in the next year but this trend is an amazing trend and it's going to work it works across all currencies so here's one i wanted to show you let's look at turkey now let's start with iran i have iran let's look at bitcoin priced in iranian reals pretty pretty uh poignant

topic these days okay so the iranian central bank balance sheet is about 12 quadrillion reals 12 quadrillion that is the iranian and by the way that's like from seven months ago they you know not only the fact that they cut off the internet but i can never get on the central bank of iran's website it's like they probably you know they probably will mark everyone is a terrorist or whatever but you know i gotta use vpns but the you actually can't get on the website at the moment obviously but this is a rough number and so this is bitcoin's value and if we take that off right that's the value of their balance sheet and bitcoin is just towering over it and you can do a percentage run a regression on that percentage and lo and behold

it's a power curve as well so bitcoin will dominate whatever it this is your quote right here bitcoin will dominate whatever you compare it to and the power curve will dominate so if it's you know the iranian central bank grows at a very fast exponential rate at very quickly uh depreciating exponential rate but if you put the bitcoin market cap against it it will turn it into a power curve so bitcoin actually dominates the comparison and look it's an even better it's better it's a better r squared than the usd price way tighter yep yep you can look at turkey all right this one's kind of fun because uh erdogan put in a this is very trump like he put in a new central bank manager uh governor right here in 2021 who

had the good idea of fighting inflation by dropping interest rates this is the balance sheet of the central bank of turkey or really the monetary base so they went from 383 billion lira back in 2021 now they have 4.5 trillion bitcoin is worth that much in uh turkish lira and you look at that it's a nice 96 r square powered curve interesting like i haven't quite looked at this detailed it's a little bit behind schedule uh interestingly somehow the turkish is holding a little bit of value here but i'm not worried about it it'll pop back up uh sterling bitcoin actually you can actually see when bitcoin passes the value of sterling right there last year uh no two years two years ago at this time roughly we passed the value of

the good old bank of england the oldest fiat currency still in existence that is the cross put it on log scale nice power curve so all of these other things if you put them on log scale uh they look like straight lines so let's take off i should put this the you could draw a curve through that which would be exponential it would be a straight line bitcoin does not look like that and it looks like that nice sort of gentle sloping power curve and it's actually i would argue um more sustainable in the long run if it takes a little bit longer to get there so just as an example we are at uh 2.5 well let me do this with europe i have europe i think right here so here's one where we have yet to cross

so ecb's balance sheet notice how uh this is another thing where you have to always adjust the september levels with current levels so you see the ecb just like the fed is starting to pump just a little bit just a little bit right from the low back in august way lower than it was in 2022 just like the fed okay six uh six trillion euros is a monetary base of of europe bitcoin in of the eurozone i should say bitcoin in in europe in euro terms is 1.5 trillion it bitcoin dominates it turns into a power law like most things a little bit behind schedule not like all all currencies but like a lot of them it's a little bit behind schedule at the moment and here's something to keep in mind so look at how uh the curve is 0.38 x right so we are

at 0.2 x i should take that to two decimals but we're roughly 20 of the balance sheet at the moment the curve is 40 so we actually should be higher a little bit behind schedule but look at how it's just sort of nice gradual growth and we get to 100 by the end of the decade sounds reasonable could be faster who knows but it just has this nice growth but notice how the power curve will be way quicker if it's just a much shittier balance sheet so like with with iran for example where it's already at uh you actually have better to look at this on linear scale um see it we're at 192 times the central bank of iran's balance sheet we actually had a schedule 165x would be the trend and you know by the end of the decade the trend's going to be 700 times

the central bank of iran's balance sheet what i'm trying to show you is that you got to look at this thing through different lenses like we always look at it as far as the dollar goes like you said you hit it with a stick do more it is doing a lot you're just not looking at the right lens like in a weak currency bitcoin is is just destroying it absolutely dominating and yeah with the larger currencies the growth will be slower it'll be slower but it's still you know close to a double uh the sterling balance sheet and by the end of the decade it's going to be 10 times the size of sterling that's how it works yeah that's what i was going to say is going through this exercise and pulling up all these different power curves in different currencies different

metals really highlights the um sort of comparative advantages and disadvantages that the different fiat currencies have. Like the fact that the Bitcoin power curve and Sterling and Iranian Rial and Turkish Lira is as tight as it is if you were to just look at the U.S. dollar power curve, you'd be like, oh, what's going on? And funnily enough, it does sort of give a hat tip

to Brent Johnson and his dollar milkshake theory a bit sort of being expressed in these Bitcoin power curve charts. Wasn't that Snyder, originally Campbell Snyder? Jeff Snyder, I always interchange the two. Okay, gotcha. Yeah, so yeah, it's gonna take time, but there's a lot happening behind the scenes. And the fact that it keeps growing

like this wonderful sort of network theory, I'd say is a really, really good thing. And like you said, first time we can own, really truly own a network. Here's an interesting one, in my opinion, I wanted to show you sort of, I would take this as an optimistic thing. I know people in the United States, it's pretty polarized right now, to say the least, from what I see on Twitter.

Everything's great over here. Yeah, sure, sure. Assuming the United States stays free, and I really hope it does, and I think that it will, it would have been bad. we were really worried over here about greenland if you're taking greenland that would have been a problem for uh for for international peace accords but you know it's tenuous time don't think for a minute you know the trolls in the russian uh disinformation farms the chinese disinformation farms don't want to stir dissent in the free world but here is this is not the

total monetary base a little bit less right because we got up to actually 30 trillion here see we're at like 27 and a half and again i need a total column but um you can just see it in the axis the this is to me this is actually optimistic right so syria venezuela we're gonna see but you know it's like dictator bingo going to moscow or being extradited in one way or another these days it's very very good and Iran is a wild card. We'll see. I mean, there might still be something happening there with the aircraft carriers moving towards the region, I guess, as we speak.

But we'll see. Even with, you know, the old shitty fiat money barometer, the free world has a large share. OK, so as you see here, we got the United States down here. we got all nato members that are not the united states here got japan and then you got a bunch of as i would say important countries in asia you know oceania we got australia korea taiwan and then of course ukraine i got to put on there and then you have on the other side you have china russia iran so another one i wanted to show you is let's look at that's the same chart but now is as a percentage all right so let's even zoom in because i don't have the soviet union data so

it's going to be a little bit better to just zoom in really the best that they were looking was just before the gfc it's for the global financial crisis and something to keep in mind even here you know russia was exporting a lot and doing a lot of of deals weaponizing energy which they've been doing all the time even the soviet union as a share of their central bank money it went from four percent even actually 4.8 percent in 2007 by 2009 they had shrunk to under two percent and okay that might not seem like a lot whatever china's growing during this period other people are suffering too but i think this is kind of an interesting way to look at it you know as sort of we go through the wild twitter headlines or

tweets that come up every day and sort of divide us like i am all for a free and democratic world i think that bitcoin is going to be a part of that but even here just look at how small like iran and russia are literally i mean i showed you the chart against bitcoin but monetarily and by the way this iran thing is even way inflated because i'm using official numbers the other chart i was showing you before was a black market so i gotta update that this iran is even less it's under well under a percent here probably like half a percent of this uh this total um it's really just china i'm keeping india off here because they're kind of gray they could go either way let's say but if you just sort of look at the total free world um even after all the madness

that happened with covid and a little bit on a decline now you know it's less than it's less than a third of this makeup and i hope the u.s can stay free looks pretty wild at the moment uh i don't know you tell me if you think elections are going to happen in the fall or not but i i uh i generally think the world wants more freedom we should always support it there's a lot of people that want to make americans mad with platforms by the way that are completely banned in china and russia i mean if that doesn't make you laugh that twitter is banned in russia and there are like propagandists on you know from russia tweeting like you know state-run media people i don't know what will make you laugh but uh there's there's something to be said here this

even if you're measuring you know a sort of deprecated fiat currency unit in this chart the free world is holding on here amidst all the madness obviously the united states is the biggest player here and obviously we both believe and hope that it stays free i truly believe it will and i know that it should my bigger worry is european union like it doesn't seem like the european parliament is really on board with freedom in the 21st century so i'm more worried about the european parliament fucking things up for your continent you're reading russian tweets my friend oh my gosh i mean look what's happening like free speech laws and if they're i think i think the uk has the worst of that and germany's beginning to pick up there

nothing like the uk and even i mean whatever anybody can chat gpt it say it's a thousand people were illegally detained i've heard of anybody that's actually i mean it is insane the the uk law about tweeting like hate speech and stuff that's insane but say it's i don't know thousand people uh the entire nation of russia is firebombing ukraine and twitter is blocked what about china it's blocked like it's not even it's not even you can't even access it so again i'm not i don't want to get into a deep rabbit hole of comparing there but people need to understand that you're being gaslit by three countries russia iran and china like why does how many even have a a twitter account is that free speech i mean like they're murdering thousands

and thousands of people right now and he has a twitter account is that free speech this that's it's it's actually information is most weaponized i would say in the united states and small european countries particularly eastern european countries who by the way have dealt with deportations the gulag we've actually dealt with this shit we've had it in our history there we recognize that russia china and iran are weaponizing social media i'm not saying i know the answer i'm not saying censorship i'm saying any of that i don't even follow the topic really it seems like you're following it more but i can guarantee you that as bad as you might think you see on some tweet that it is in europe or something look at russia look at iran look at

china you can't even get on the platform yeah and i don't think i don't think these things are mutually exclusive i completely agree with you you'd be naive to think that um external forces russia and china specifically are trying to meddle in u.s politics and the sort of conversation and the rhetoric that exists actually recorded with um a journalist from maine yesterday who did a lot of research on the medicaid fraud uh abuse in maine specifically and before that was really focused on the um chinese national marijuana grow ops that popped up in maine and he made a very compelling case that um what we're seeing now in the u.s particularly as it pertains to the conversations around somali immigrants and medicaid fraud like china

had a hand in that there's some sort of loose connections between the ccp and what's happening in somalia i think via the belt and road initiative and there are some uh some actors that uh are associated with each other on the china and somalia side in somalia that are actually doing things in the united states too around this medicaid fraud so i completely agree um i think i mean the tenant media you know about the tenant media scandal right t-e-n-e-t yeah what was that again yeah so that was when the russian the russian government they're paying uh was paid right tim pool influencers right yeah no american tim pool dave rubin benny johnson sure you know those names those assholes they were getting paid like

150 000 an episode by the russian government i'll take i'll start pumping the propaganda out to it check your check your dms man make sure you know where your sponsorship money is coming from the tenant media scandal again should have uh it should have a lot more views so uh yeah no i mean all i'm saying is it's a battle this is the new frontier i'm a big i'm a big i'm a big i'm a big yuri uh yuri bezmanov yeah uh like i think he wore why don't you explain why don't you explain to the listeners exactly who that was exactly where he came from he was uh an ex-soviet that defected came to the united states and basically warned us in the 80s through a series of interviews

that we have a long-term cultural revolution being waged against us, the United States. I'm sure many of you have seen it, but he basically called it out. You have this process of infiltration, normalization, demoralization, and takeover. And during the COVID era, many people were convinced

that we were in the demoralization phase. but essentially like you have he was saying the russians are doing this but i would i would add the chinese into it as well i think they wanted to destabilize the united states and and that's the weird thing is that you have i mean well the fact that it even came from there and we couldn't even say anything about it and you couldn't say anything about a lab leak or anything i mean yeah this is a disaster look and there's nothing to think that that might be not the worst of it Right. Like knock on wood. But it is full on information warfare there. But here's the thing. They quickly toppled. Like how quick did Assad's buddy topple?

Now, look, I'm not saying a lot of people say there's like a Berlin Wall movement or whatever. I mean, the guy was the current president used to be in ISIS or Al Qaeda. So let's not let's not get ahead of ourselves here. But but the fact that that government toppled so quickly is fantastic. and there's only a few more left at least with major major uh let's say clout still on the international arena and i think the spotlight should still shine you know the light should be shown there of course trump invited them all onto his peace board so i don't know what you think about that but um the moral clarity might not be the clearest coming from the current admin so well we don't we don't have to go too deep down that rabbit hole

yeah i mean to be honest i uh i'm not being paying as close attention uh to the peace thing it seemed like some sort of bullshit but better not better not yeah um if you don't have a billion dollars you can be on there for three years if you do have a billion dollars no one really knows where it's going but uh yeah yeah and then you have like the whole city of london theory as well um so holding a bunch of these different theories what's the city of london theory is that we haven't we never truly broke free from uh oh god british royal influence on the united states uh and there's a there's a series like all the old families and And they've essentially been controlling the U.S. and Europe by proxy or by extension via financial markets.

Well, their currency has been already destroyed by Bitcoin. Again, when I say the city of London, it's not the city of London. It's like a, it's a couple of the way the theory is described. That is like really the puppet master behind Davos and all that. Yeah. Yeah. well i mean look we should all agree that we want freedom uh yeah i i live in europe i can tell you living in a place where you know you had the deportations you had the gulags you had the

executions uh it's not something you want to flirt with even repeat uh i saw a very good interview with steven kotkin by the way uh it's recent i could pull it up whatever it's like last weekend and is very optimistic very good i mean this is the guy who's he's on his third volume of stalin's life all right so he's a preeminent one of the preeminent historians today is from the hoover institute steven kotkin if you don't know i might highly recommend you know people read him or you can listen to him on youtube and his takeaway was actually very uh very positive like i'm i'm trying to say here right i mean like it is bad and there have been like there have been governments that are never going to let's say play by the rules and like no one should be

naive to think that there's some true international law right but everybody should want to be free like the baltics where where i live right now was part of the former soviet union we hate the fact that we even have to say that like we were never soviet we had free uh free societies free countries before 1940 when we were occupied three times twice by the soviets once by the nazis and that is just not going to change i mean we we we absolutely appreciate freedom and a free sort of united europe is way better than anything that anybody from you know putin is russia communist china could ever throw at us and we're never you know we're never growing back going back so that i just use that as an example it's like a lot of people have different definitions of what

you know freedom might mean or something but every country should be able to choose their alliances every country should be able to to be free and i think you know the u.s as big as it is you get very polarized uh maybe views of of the world there you know we've talked about a lot of stuff but i know that we all agree on freedom i would just say be very careful the the disinformation is massive now i mean like it's it's and it's only growing and it's really you know okay maybe it comes from like indian click farms or indonesian or pakistan or something as well but the big funders the big funders are china and then russia which thank god has no money anymore and is being exhausted i mean russia three and five russians only have a toilet two and five

russians don't even have a toilet that is how bad that system still is from being so behind from 100 years of communism like any way we want to describe it like that is where that is where they are and they're they're never going to play by our rules whatever that's they've shown that as a fact right but they've they've murdered people with polonium in britain in london city of london back to back to the london theory so there are places on this world will never play by our rules whatever that's fine we all agree invading of iraq was terrible you know but not everything that the united states does is i would say bad so i would just keep that in mind when you look at like this chart where you say okay it's rough bitcoin's great it's a great escape hatch

it's going to be a great escape hatch but losing anyway back to the stephen kotkin interview his was also very optimistic and he's like even with what you might see as a lot of the provocation a lot of bad stuff i know the left is their hair is on fire and you know it's been some tragedies with these protests but um you still don't see in the united states like you don't see a gulag system you don't even see a concentration camp system like we had with the japanese uh of course we do have growing internment you know sort of facilities however you wanted to say that with what ice is doing but um you know people generally want just want controlled immigration so i understand all that but it's not it's not as it's definitely not like you know 1930s europe but if it

would you know there was an event in nazi germany in the early 1930s it's called night of the long knives where they basically the new people in power they just went completely rogue they killed a bunch of former politicians uh this is early like this is 1932 or 1933 i mentioned a lot on my show because you know i don't think the u.s is going to lose democracy lose freedom you know you you can't you can't go unchecked you can't just like you can't have like people murdered on the street and then say uh you know these people are domestic terrorists or whatever and then keep going and keep going and keep going and then all of a sudden you're having extra extra judicial killings uh sort of in mass but like i said we're nowhere near that actually

and i think all of that is is reasons to have some hope that's where i feel like the influence whether it's china russia combination of the two is really shining in because i mean for the immigration stuff specifically like tom homan who's the head of border patrol in 2012 obama gave him a medal for deporting twice as many people as he did in 2025 for some reason or another even though an insane amount of fraud has been unearthed and well he also took fifty thousand dollars at a paper bag to uh to hire supposed border agents in the trump admin well but separate from that it gets very clear i i agree with you and obama deported uh even more the the

The system is being exploited by quote-unquote asylum seekers to the tune of half a trillion dollars a year. Yeah. And, like, I've said this multiple times. Like, I wish we weren't in this situation. Like, we wouldn't be in this situation if Biden hadn't completely opened up the border and literally held up barbed wire fences so that people could flood into the country. And then like the – like these people are – ICE is going to deport illegal criminal immigrants.

Like they're still in like the criminal level of this deportation phase, and you have these groups that I think stem from the Weather Underground and that Marxist influence that existed in the 60s that Yuri Bezmenov warned us about. really um creating chaos like going there blowing whistles and trying to physically stop federal agents from deporting criminal illegal aliens and you basically incite a confrontation then yes it's terrible i've said this multiple times i wish nobody died but like again if you're just like observing the the layout of the situation like they're inciting every action and they're creating chaos and they're blowing whistles and all that and a lot of these people aren't even from minneapolis they're sort of i think there's a lot of a lot of evidence um coming to the surface that these people are like coordinated by like sort of marxist groups that want to sow this

chaos and paint a media narrative that um trump is a fascist the isis gestapo uh and it to me just literally looking at the facts and look at what's happening it's like this when i think about yuri besman of having an influence on how i view america in the 21st century like i look at that and like oh so what you already warned us about yeah i think that there's both uh you know it's going to come from the left it's going to come from the right uh people just need to you know be cautious and obviously uh the uh situations where these people did die i mean it's tragic but obviously if you you know get caught up in there there could be uh situations where they become out of control and they did but you know again i don't want to sort of go down that rabbit

hold too much but the point is there's a lot there's just a lot so much that's getting spewed from uh from china and russia and look russia is weak man i mean two and five two and five russians uh don't have a toilet they're freezing through the winter there they think that if they can just make ukrainians lives miserable by bombing all of their energy infrastructure which they're doing and it's getting very very bad right now in ukraine like you probably haven't seen it because it's not on your feed but it's getting very very bad um do do they think that ukrainians are gonna you know like say oh well we want we russia's lives russians lives are such shit you know under their autocratic 25-year dictator that yes we're actually gonna go back to this old

you know sort of shitty oligarchy run by putin that's gonna be a good thing that's a strategy that is the russian strategy is make them as miserable as they possibly can to break them and that is something that we in eastern europe for sure i just never go and stand for never doesn't matter like whatever someone says about the uk internet censorship laws whatever i only bring that up not directed as you but that's just these are misdirections on what is really really happening right now and you know i mean iran what's going on iran should be absolutely top of mind for everybody u.s politicians alike um absolutely everybody it's going to be rough It's going to be rough there. But this is what happens when a regime becomes totally entrenched. And yes, I don't think we're anywhere near that in the United States. So that's, again, room for optimism. I would say room for optimism. But it's dangerous. It's really, I'd say it's really dangerous.

you know russia russia does not in over 12 well it's almost going to be 12 years since they first invaded ukraine they still do not control a single oblast or these regions in that in the east of ukraine they don't not one not one they control this crimea which is a which is one that they invaded and again these are talking points for normal sovereign free-thinking republicans like who was president when putin went in and took a piece of ukrainian territory it was obama who was president when ukraine was invaded on the full scale it was biden when these guys are never going to play by our rules but when they smell weakness when they know that they can sow dissent they go for it that's what they've been doing they've been going for it so i mean it's a lot

more look i i uh i have a lot of sympathy for for uh americans i think there's a lot of there's a lot of division in america right now but i can tell you as far as freedom goes and like true uh autocratic regimes like eastern europe is actually more united uh than ever against that and hopefully western europe will join usually the uk is actually on the right side there i mean just saw what happened in china right you saw that uh um they were talking they were calling second or third night what were they called night of the long yeah they were comparing it to that right yeah i wouldn't necessarily do that because that was uh i mean it's not dead yet but yeah they're definitely being smoked out i mean she is as paranoid as they come in autocracy there's

another thing the stephen kotkin interview i would definitely when you study dictatorships you can start to understand this like there's nothing but paranoia for these guys for putin putin has like four doubles but by the way if anyone doesn't know the the putin that met trump in alaska was not the real putin sorry to tell sorry to burst your bubble there but i mean it's it's just embarrassing it's absolutely embarrassing that these autocrats these these oligarchs can take uh such collective air out of the west and then you start fighting amongst yourselves so that's the bigger for me that's the bigger picture and that's why i would again highlight this is like yeah china's sort of the energy you know it was a manufacturing powerhouse of the

world and something we got to deal with and we are trying to deal with it right trump's trying to deal with it but um all the other stuff is like it's so not important compared to actually losing uh your freedom and i mean these guys they have not they got to they got from stalingrad to berlin quicker than they can get through a few villages in ukraine ukraine the ukrainians are fucking heroes for what they've been doing and uh mostly i just see you know that people they're getting paid by russians like this 10 immediate goons just trying to stir shit and saying like somehow they support putin like tucker tucker supports putin i know you've been on tucker show but you know fox news fox news 92nd bit telling people how to use bitcoin wallets you

know you know how i feel about this i don't i don't want to get to it that's that's what i say it is i would say more than ever we need to fight for freedom besmanoff is a great example by the way cross across the decades across the cultures across you know that anybody who hasn't seen his youtube videos uh explanations of how they sow dissent absolutely huge absolutely important but that's the best that's the best export that the russians have is chaos and they're gonna it's there it's it's coming more and more and more if you're not aware to it like i would strongly suggest you would tune your antennas yeah no again like i said earlier you'd be naive to think stuff isn't happening we're in an information war an info war if you will sir

yeah yeah it is to that extent yeah anyway uh i'm more optimistic the fact that ukrainians are such heroes holding these guys back in iran i really would love for them to be free but that looks really rough and it looks hairy we're gonna see how the u.s chooses to deal with it but you know i don't know i think i mean to your point i think put aside Trump and Putin's relationship which I think we would both acknowledge is a bit special and a bit weird to an extent

like I think this the national security strategy that we laid out last year was really like hey China and Russia are coming in our backyard and they're trying to influence neighboring countries they didn't say that about Russia

they didn't say that about Russia they've mentioned Russia like just a few times and more talked about europe how you know this is a russian line by the way it's like europe is like gay rep they call it gay europe or something like it's all trannies it's all trannies and like just madness and it's just it's just not true yeah that's a russian uh that's what the russians say but look you know how many times green was mentioned in that that national security memorandum quite a few zero zero times zero times they published it in like november december zero times and then trump goes on this tirade that he's going to take over greenland

that would have been disastrous that would be disastrous for the u.s by the way i mean forget coming to italy for holidays like that would have been you would have had you know i know americans who hate nato thought like oh they gotta get a twofer like got out of nato and got greenland but they don't even speak english in greenland you know that right like it's not it's not i mean it is true the united states does not have a official language that's true but um that that would have been such a disaster for the free world to have that wedge and china and russia would have been absolutely loving it and i'm very glad that he talked out there i wasn't sure he would but at least for now he talked well i mean that's this is trump's art of the deal right he's

gonna anchor it to some extreme like we're gonna take england i'm just like okay everybody cool down yeah at least for my observation well it was i think another like venezuela like the fact that who knows what the deal with maduro was to extract him from there yeah no i think i think taco is definitely taco is the mo right so it's like bomb iran easy actually go in and make iran free that might be a taco i'm not sure that i'm not saying that for sure we might see still what's going to happen there but same thing like take a maduro easy okay i know it's not purely easy but actually make venezuela free sounds like a taco but i thought that greenland was on the table i mean like they they are they uh what's the word they mobilized it was the 101st our only arctic

brigade out in alaska they told him to go to minnesota um but it wasn't until his little davos globalist speech where he said he was not going to use force that it was at least clear but it's sad i mean you know there's a lot of there's like a kernel of everything that trump goes for that i totally agree with right it's like we've been saying in eastern europe for 30 years you need to take russia seriously for 30 years and when trump got up in front of the germans remember the germans were laughing at him in the un in like 2017 or something and he was saying you got to not buying russian gas very true very true no argument for me uh but then he just goes a little bit crazy with the taco negotiations so we're gonna we're gonna see and and the putin bromance

is is very strange uh like you said yeah maybe that's like a taco tactic though it's like keep your friends close but your enemies closer type thing maybe maybe i mean it's been about five times now where we said you know i'm gonna get put in a month i got a list of all the times we said i'm gonna get put in a month and we're really gonna go hard on him the only the only way to end that is is for the u.s to go hard uh it's very easy to sanction i mean the shadow fleet all this stuff anyway i don't want to i don't want to go on too long we've had a lot of a big show here but if people are interested in that stuff you can check my you know my stream out and i talk more about that stuff and sort of macro issues like this because we have different views in let's

say in eastern europe compared to say whatever you might be seeing about freedom being lost in i don't know in the uk or something and as you know i am uh highly appreciative of your perspective in eastern europe in the baltics you know i love the baltics having been to uh latvia four times now it's a beautiful part of the world yeah you're always welcome to honey badger everybody listening and if you you don't want to challenge my views on this coming from what's likely an american side again i'm american and european so i feel like i can i can uh you know be a little bit jujitsu on this but uh i'm happy to buy you a beer and we can talk more about it so please come over i can't wait to have a beer with you in person again it's been uh it's been too long sir

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