TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #730: Trump's Geopolitical Poker Game with Tom Luongo

Episode Date: March 23, 2026

Marty sits down with Tom Luongo to discuss the recent US military operation against Iran, Trump's "poker player" strategy to dismantle the City of London's control over global shipping insurance and energy markets, and the potential end of the "chaos premium" in international trade. Tom on X: https://x.com/TFL1728 STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBz Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ OPNEXT https://tinyurl.com/tftc2026 Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free if you talk about a fed just gone nuts all all the central banks going nuts so it's all acting like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean And that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. Mr. Long, we meet here on yet another Friday evening. It seems to be our time of recording, choice of recording over the years.

I was just telling you, I need you to pull me back from the edge. I'm doom scrolling a lot this week. We are. I don't know if you've been reading my Twitter feed, but it's about 3 o'clock in the morning trying to like take people off the edge and go no everything um it's as funny as i um it's good to see you marty and yes i do i do like doing these on friday afternoon with you it's like we had an opportunity to sit down kind of look at the week that was the last couple weeks for us you know and it's a it's a good time to do this and we're both tired after a long week so it's

like yeah man like this it's not going to be fireworks tonight it's going to be you know that kind of thing and which is a good thing um i do enough of those or i do enough of the firework fire-breathing tom during the week so um i i you know it's funny since this thing began um you know and again i'll back up for a minute in the lead up to it i was looking at it going at first i'm like is he just playing a game right and then i saw the like full two carrier strike groups and i thought about what he did in venezuela and the way he handled venezuela and i'm like no there's going to be an operation of some form or another here because um venezuela was very much targeted uh uh operation wasn't it you know apparently just an insanely efficient

operation as well um and then right after that he goes to freaking davos and um all of that and you know the same weekend he's like what is he he said or he's at davos yeah and he's giving their speech and he's like you know he's taking on cj and jay and and mg and helisco and you know taking out el mencho i'm like all right it's march who's he gonna take out next and when you you know you know how i i feel about this stuff that this is all kind of art and parcel of the whole old money network right uh you have you know you have the the middle layer of money of basically imperial money flows or old colonial money flows my wife just was driving up and so the dogs are going crazy but um i think that's where we are we have to realize that that's a very

important part of this conversation that we just don't talk most people can't don't can't talk about because they don't have a frame of reference for it and um i do my best to try and make it you know understandable let's kind of break it down in three layers you have the original you know when he first came into power the first thing he did was cut off all the public money so hey at least the the american taxpayer isn't directly funding the ngos that are destroying the country okay that's the easy part he can just you know stroke of the pen all the land you get take that on take that down because he's the executive and he doesn't you know and he has that that power um it's the next layer that's the hardest one for people to wrap their heads around

which is the organized crime which is the system of money flow around the world the of uh of being able to to basically have the old colonial extraction system centered in city of london with outposts in places like davos and abu dhabi and hong kong and singapore and Vancouver and all these other places, right, that, you know, that's the illicit money. That's the money that runs around the world, trafficking children, trafficking drugs, you know, running protection rackets, pulling in. Yeah. And now we get to find out and we get highlighted for us. ensures all the global shipping around the world while the u.s navy is harassed to enforce it all and somehow someone else is getting paid for the defense work that we're doing

like when we stop as americans just stop and take a look at and think about what that is that shouldn't like that should drive us all crazy when you really stop to think about it it's like we go out and we spend a trillion dollars a year in the military so however much money we spend on the navy to police the world and make sure that global shipping runs relatively smoothly the only pirates that are really left in the world are the ones that somehow are linked to all the old colonial system through a network of banks and and and old relationships that exist in iran venezuela dubai blah blah and hong kong mexico city all around the world and you look around the world and you see the same thing every everywhere which is that that money cannot flow

as alex grainer likes to point out without complicity from the canadian uk some american banks together it can't happen because it's too much money has to move that way not only are they making money off of that they're insuring the ships that we're defending Now, let's stop for a second and think about what Lloyds of London actually is. I've talked to people about this and they're like, there are no actuaries at Lloyds of London. There are no risk assessors at Lloyds of London. There's a bunch of guys, there's a bunch of limeys in there collecting, writing contracts. It's right across the Thames from GCHQ, otherwise known as MI6.

So MI6 goes around the world, stirs up chaos around the world. you know with the help of maybe with the help of the massad or saudi you know intelligent elements of the cia refuse to say rogue elements of the cia because the rogue elements of the cia are the patriots right um and you know creating chaos around the world which raises the risk premium for everybody to actually do business around the world and who's getting paid for that so they're on both sides of the trade they're getting paid to run drugs and you know harass everybody and everything else and they're getting paid on the insurance contracts on the other side it's all big freaking shakedown operation and american taxpayers are getting paid are getting

frankly fucked coming going on the way in on the way out after they've left the party and after their kids are dead. Donald Trump's like, no, we're getting paid for that. So in the lead up to February 28th, or I guess it was after midnight, so March 1st, last February 28th, it became really obvious, if you take Trump at his word,

and just listen to what he said in that eight minute statement, And he laid it all out pretty freaking clearly, and it's very consistent with everything he's been saying for years, which is Iran can't have a nuclear weapon because they're a bunch of crazy Persians or whatever they are. You call them Shia crazies or whatever. They're crazies of one form or another, or maybe they're just another node of organized crime around the world. The Arabs like to talk out of both sides of their mouth because they're making money coming and going on the oil and the natural gas. They don't really care. you know um so everybody's like talking on both sides of their mouth the the israelis are you know

are up in arms about everything because that's who they are and maybe they have a good right to be maybe they don't i don't really care like i don't like iran i don't like the israelis i don't like the saudis i don't like the guitars i don't like any of these people they're all shit as far as i'm concerned and nine times and 90 of the time we're shit too but we have the opportunity because we were the ones with the big stick that if we decide to use the big stick for our interests whoa we get the last three weeks but we've all been living our entire lives especially my entire life and i know your entire life because you're far younger than i am that we've been living in a world where the

united states keeps doing all this shit it's not in our own best interest we don't even know what that looks like we don't know what it looks like when our government actually acts in a purposeful strategic manner in the interest of the united states and so we've been so conditioned and thinking that we can't possibly be doing that because we never do that we've got all this history we've got all this dna we've got all this this lived experience to say that they're not doing that and then all of a sudden we're like we don't know what to do with it when it's actually staring us in the face we have to distrust it that's what's happening marty it's not hard we're literally saying, London doesn't get to pull the insurance vig. They don't get to control the pricing of oil

around the world. They don't get to do this. They don't get to do that. They don't get to fund all the proxies. They don't get to play these games because London is at the center of Venezuela, Jalisco, Vancouver, Hong Kong, Singapore, this one, all of it, and Iran, and Israel. And this is the hardest part that people have to realize is that they're on both sides of the trade in a lot of these conflicts they're they're fun and they're they're always like handing money and guns and what and again when i say london it's a it's in in some ways it's a metaphor it's the system of the way the money flows and who benefits from the way the money flows that is what london represents it goes it all flows through city london and its subsidiaries

because of the very special rules that it has, the carve-outs that it has in order to make money move that way, which it doesn't exist anywhere else on the planet, but it all happens to run in that way, and all the offshore banks and the Caymans and blah, blah, blah. So when you look at it from that perspective, what Trump had to do was at some point finally call the Iranians boss and go look i see what you're doing you've been told death keep death keep negotiating with trump

he doesn't really want to start another war he's vain he's stupid he doesn't think i i like literally listen to listen to the people in europe listen to the people in london listen to all of them listen to all of his critics and they some of them actually believe this nonsense others don't others are like trying to gaslight you into believing he doesn't know what he's doing okay but other people but there are some that really do believe this they really do believe that they have enough control and enough people and systems and and and institutions and bureaucrats and everything around the world that they can just bleed him out over time and then you know we'll get back to status quo after he's gone and i'm sure that iran was told like i'm sorry the

IRTC, Aragachi, all these people, we're all told the same damn thing. Just keep bleeding them out. So bleed them out for time. No different than Zelensky. At a certain point, when you look at and since the war has begun, and since the war has been prosecuted the way it's been prosecuted, you'll notice that the Iranians are negotiating over a war they've lost the exact same way that Zelensky has been negotiating over where he's lost same thing why because he's got somebody else in his back pocket saying don't worry about it we're on top of this we're going to do this we're going to do this we're going to do this you just keep bleeding him out and eventually Trump was like no fuck you no and then because the Israelis are really good at what they do now this

is again don't hate the play I hate the game like right the Israelis are good at this because they have to be. Like it or not, you don't have to like Israel to respect their ability to play the game. And because we saw, and I wouldn't have any of this in my head, I wouldn't have this perspective. I wouldn't have had this memetic lapse of the way I used to see the world if we didn't have the 12-day war last year. The 12-day war last year was the time when I had to finally go, fuck, are we really just that much better than everybody else? Is this all just been a bunch of gaslighting by a bunch of persians and russians and chinese and indians and british and everybody else like they really aren't a paper tiger we and we are really that good we didn't

like spend 850 billion dollars a year on defense or whatever the hell we've been spending and get 50 50 billion dollars worth of worth of return on investment we have the toys folks we have the men we have the material we have the personnel we have the all we needed was the political will and the organizational will from the Pentagon on down. Let those guys do what they do well. And I was talking to Joaquin Flores the other day, and I was shocked. The 12 day war shocked the crap out of me, right?

And because I wanted to be conservative and I wanted to be generous to everybody I saw on the game board. I wanted to say the reasonable position is the U.S. is lying about something. The Iranians are lying a little bit. The Russians are lying a little bit. The Chinese are lying. Everybody's overselling what they have a little bit. And then we just – I mean, the Israelis pulled off one of the most brilliant combined arms operations in military history on June 12th last year.

Like it or not. I mean, with human intelligence on the ground, air, intelligence forces, ground forces, the war was over before it started. So we already knew that we were capable of doing it. So Trump was going to go for the big kill shot, not on Iran, because this war is not about Iran. Iran is a network node. this is about the United States getting control over the system that it's a part of

and it has been funding to its own detriment for 80 years that conversation in the immortal words of Tyler Durden is over that moment in Fight Club when Edward Norton's at the top of the stairs and Tyler Durden's at the bottom of the stairs and he's fighting with Helena

the bottom card he goes this conversation is is over done that's it now everybody understand what's happening oh that's what he's doing so if you don't think that he didn't know that the straits were going to get closer that iran wasn't going to do this nonsense i don't think they expected to be though so they've already said it i don't think we didn't expect to be this successful and you knew they were successful because on day two the iranians were threatening to close the straits they were i'm sure they were convinced that they were going to be able to stand up for a couple of weeks inflict a tremendous amount of political and propaganda damage on on the american military that we were going to lose planes and lose dudes

and have to do you know have to play you know and have to have to you know defend this right and that they were going to use that they didn't get that opportunity this war was over in the first 24 hours operationally strategically however you want to put it not operationally but strategically it was over the iranians were done it was just a matter of mopping everything up afterwards and i said as much on twitter like i'm the next day i'm like this war's over like if if they're not firing if they don't fire a thousand missiles tomorrow they're done oh they're gonna play possum and eventually three weeks from now we're gonna see about 3,000. Okay, fine. You keep believing that. We've flown 15,000 sorties. We've run out of

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code TFTC for 25% off a ticket. I'll see you there. So freaks, this rip of TFTC was brought to you by our good friends at BitKey. BitKey makes Bitcoin easy to use and hard to lose. It is a hardware wallet that natively embeds into a two or three multi-sig. You have one key on the hardware wallet, one key on your mobile device, and Block stores a key in the cloud for you. This is an incredible hardware device for your friends and family, or maybe yourself who have Bitcoin on exchanges and have for a long time, but haven't taken a step to self-custody because they're worried about the complications of setting up a private public key pair, securing that seed phrase, setting up a pin, setting up a passphrase.

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you know all of them created by again city of london but you've got you've got kushner and all that so you got like this israeli influence over the government and then the third lens is like are we just witnessing like mad king like just hubris like personal trump like wants to make a mark wants to be the one to drop the nuke and like i like i said it's like hard to pull back from the edge so like like when i saw the city of london pulled the insurance and uh the government stepped up i was like hey that's a point in tom's tom's lens that's a point in tom's lens that's like all the it's the only ones that matters because i didn't think i'll be honest with you like i because i said what i think i said it was either on it was either on sunday saturday or

sunday they their mouthpieces on twitter started to give it away there's that guy parara from who's the the sri lankan guy from that's in australia that every that all of a sudden showed up and it was like the ian carroll of of uh of mi6 uh adjunct prop he showed up like i know nine months ago to like you know and then him and the other guy and like the other guy spencer hawk enough they're both city of london in my mind um i started calling him mr mouthpiece because you can read his stuff and it's all ai slot it's all ai written swap anyway but he you know you can see the first half bit is he's gotcha he's gotcha he's gotcha and then bodies were 90 degrees into like into la la land and i'm like okay hold on you take i'm gonna take this asshole

apart but if you read him carefully he's telling you what their strategy is going to be and how they're going to do x y and z i've got all my freaking people trained to like watch this stuff like i'm i'm sitting here monitoring my slack server all day long and i got half a dozen guys going oh did you see this oh this is what they're going to do next and this is their next and i'm like this is their next narrative you're you're you're 80 right we're going to tweak it like this this and this i've i've been we've just been doing this like almost 24 7 now for three weeks and and it's just hilarious because you can predict what they're going to do next in real time and so i took him apart he he made the the point he said oh they're gonna they're gonna um they're

gonna close the straits or london's good london is going to pull their insurance they're going to close the straits and they're going to try and draw um um drive wedges between trump and the gulf arab states oman bahrain you know the others and then go to the un and try and make him into the bad guy all right and then when they close the straits and everybody's freaking out the oil's 300 a barrel like didn't mention the insurance act angle on it at all he didn't say that i said oh this is what they're gonna this is what he's saying they're gonna do diplomatically i know tomorrow always london is going to pull the insurance contracts and to the day bingo it happened what i was surprised at was that trump shows up on taco tuesday and that's taco tuesday

trump always chickens out on taco tuesday trump turns around and goes i got a plan for insurance shipping insurance we're gonna escort the ships we don't have a lot of we don't have all the details yet but we're gonna do this i was expecting like a week maybe 10 days now he goes 48 hours oh like oh he's in complete control of the situation he let he led them into that trap knowing full and then once you saw him do that you're like oh straights are closed he wants the straights closed now he's going to use the straights to put the fork onto the onto the europeans and putin was right there he had his he had trump's back immediately because he sends Besson out there

to say, well, we're going to unsanction some Russian oil that's sitting in tankers. Russians got like 40 million barrels or 100 million barrels sitting on tankers and ports and everything that's on the ocean, right? Unsanctioned, it's going to be sold anywhere, as opposed to only being sold

in the shadow, the quote-unquote shadow fleet. And then Putin comes around the next day and says, the later that day, he says, and I don't think we're going to sell any of that to the Europeans. game set match like i'm watching this going on this is like are you kidding me this is like they went into the back room you know the the nexus came i'm like i'm playing a game of dune

the nexus comes up everybody we have a chance to negotiate making me make a new alliance i'm like putting the jumper in the back room making a secret deal yeah we're all right now it's like you get the voice and i get the i get your power and you get this i don't know let's go take cart and let's go take siege table like you know that's the way i think of this stuff and you could see it in real time and i was like oh this is hilarious i mean it's not i mean it still can go wrong there's all these tail risks that the israelis can go off half cock and do something terrible and blah blah blah there's all sorts of little uh things and ways this could still go bad and yes iran may not have been dead at that point so but you're like in the you're in the probability

field of this thing is probably 75 over and then five or six days into it you're like oh yeah Like, and then, and I'm just, I'm over, like, this, I'm over it. Like, we're flying A-10 Warthogs, doing close assault in the straits, killing fast attack boats and guys sitting in, you know, with, you know, I don't know, guys sitting in the rocks along the straits. You know, they're blowing everything up. Like, flying A-10s, for Christ's sake. Like, once you're flying A-10s, like, there is no air, there is no air support. There is no anti-air support, you know, for the Iranians. They have no way to defend against that because the A-10 is, I mean, the Air Force has been trying to get rid of the A-10 for 30 years.

Dumbly, I might add. This is like one of the greatest airplanes ever produced. And, but they want to keep replacing it because they can't keep up with, you know, modern anti-air, you know, anti-air systems. Yeah, they've got a point. But if you blow all that away, then the A-10s just come in and secure the zone. Now you can bring troops in. You can do whatever the hell you want. You have operational control at that point because everybody you see turns into a pink – I hate to be rude, but everybody who shows up to try and fight them is going to turn into a pink mist.

Fast attack boats, gone. I mean, if you really aren't sure what one A-10 Warthog can do, I invite you to just sit down and kind of look at it, okay? And just go through a typical loadout for that particular operation, understand what that cannon on the front of that thing can do. and i want you to i want you to explain to me how a bunch of catamarans and a bunch of you know i don't know how those things are going to survive long enough to do whatever they're going to do lay mines do this do that i don't know like ram our carriers like all that old crap that we used to hear about the war games that you know every time you know that doug McGregor still does

unbelievably. Still peddles this shit. So did Jim Rickards back in the day. They all did. And it was all bullshit. It was all agitprop. It was all bullshit. Every bit of it. It was all nonsense. We weren't going to be allowed to do that as long as Obama

was president. Because Obama was always London's asset. And that's where I was, you know, and over the years I've had to Like, I've had to fine-tune my worldview. And I used to make it more complicated than it is. It's not complicated anymore.

There's London and their assets, and there's everybody else. And then there's the United States who they're trying to destroy. The Russians are their own node. The Chinese are their own node. And everybody else is kind of caught in the middle, trying to figure out who's going to win. And, you know, all the middle powers, the Saudis and the Indians and the Brazilians and everybody else are trying to figure out,

is it going to be Davos and see the London that wins, or is it going to be the United States that wins? and the and the russians and chinese of course form a a bit of a coalition together in order just to antipode to stop that that's what bricks was always about bricks was never about you know it was never a good idea it was always a necessity and the minute the united states pulls out of that whole arrangement starts acting like a sovereign nation as opposed to you know a bunch of globalist shit bags it's amazing what it's amazing how much the world changes and that's the kind of that's the that's the the calculus we have to do and it's hard don't get me wrong i mean it's not

easy for people to see you have to live eat shit and breathe this stuff like i do right and you have to have a good framework at to begin with as the change is happening in order to see it in real time i get it i i don't i i don't begrudge anybody who's confused it's a great intelligence operations the hallmark of a great intelligence operations everybody's really confused that's like the definition of a good intelligence op right you're a good intelligence up as you're confused for a little while a great one is you can you can bamboozle two generations of people into believing bullshit that was a good one yeah trump just blew it all up he's like literally pulled out his like big long sword that says gordian on it leaving knots left and right like

a fucking like he's hacking through the forest it's hilarious it's like his lightsaber you know it doesn't it doesn't glow blue it says gordian on the side of it yeah he's got a special you know sam jackson has purple lightsaber you know trump's got fucking neon lights on his you know i mean gold foil to go along with it so freaks when you take bitcoin seriously you start with custody you want to control your keys avoid single points of failure and make sure your savings cannot disappear because you or someone else screwed up that is what unchained has been focused on since 2016. Unchained is the leader in collaborative multi-sig custody and Bitcoin financial services that keep you in control. They secure over $12 billion in Bitcoin for more than 12,000 clients.

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i'm like all right let's put this through tom's lens that's one thing i've been curious to ask you like right in terms of like collateral damage particularly to the infrastructure the energy infrastructure that's being materially impaired is that expected is that expected by you and like to what extent is that uh is that uh can you stomach that that collateral damage because well okay you blow it all up and it creates yeah no i agree yeah yeah you're you're you're asking the right question which is you know um you know what are we going to have to deal with on the back side of this and clearly the iranians went off and a little bunch of shit that you know in in in fury but if you look at it i would say this that was their quote-unquote their samson option

right which is you know they have this you know we've all been told about their great mosaic defense and everything else i'm going to stop for a second just to remind everybody the iranians had a very good strategy but they had a very good strategy for the wrong war if we had decided to fight the neocons war on their terms the way we would have fought every other war that they were trying to sucker us into we would be in trouble today a lot of trouble you know why all the things that people said. 92 million people. It's a place the size of Texas, you know, Texas, Oklahoma. It's a

huge country, right? Mountainous, horrible terrain to fight through, yada, yada, yada. It would be like invading the United States. Terrible. Terrible landscape to invade. One, because it's huge.

And two, there are mountain ranges, and there's this, and there's that, and there's all this crap, right? And, you know, that's why it took us up to 200 years to you know get from one end of the continent to the other i mean it wasn't an easy right and we have of them and then there's and then there's guys like me like you know what i mean like yeah you're you're going to be marching troops into you know into tennessee or florida wherever i happen to be at the time like yeah okay that's good like the average dude and the average dude

you know in places that i live you know has has three truck guns because the first two might jam you know what else are you gonna do with the fucking things and they're and by the way they're all and they're all barreled in the same fucking caliber too so they have one ammunition and a whole bunch of you know and um but that war that they prepped for their mosaic defensive we've heard all this stuff about was a good strategy it just happened to be didn't we didn't meet for we didn't meet them on ground that they prepared so you know like it or not you know trump's not an idiot these are good people around him and they decided to fight the war differently and they had the israelis in their back pocket with all their human intelligence and

all of their on on the ground intelligence and everything else um and uh like it or not the two of them did those two forces when they're acting you know you know in a mission critical or you know goal-oriented behavior uh it's kind of disturbing so now let's talk about your your original question which is about collateral collateral damage so i think what you what we've seen and you know i may get corrected by some of my you know my military friends about this but i think what we've seen is when you knocked out your their command and control when they when they don't have when they're not getting orders when it's just a bunch of guys It's basically a shortwave talking amongst themselves.

And I'm not saying this is the case on day two or day three, but now, clearly, they were given instructions. If you don't get these orders by this time after this, do this. And they did that. And then you send Aragachi out there to try and, you know, do whatever he's going to do in terms of, you know, work the diplomatic channels and everything else. um and i just find it and so that's what they've done and i'm you know i don't begrudge them trying to fight the wars that they have on they're now trying to fight the war they have versus the war they prepared for the best way they know how and i would expect them to fight hard and i would expect them to get some hits in and to get some licks in and did and did they yes you know it

and let's put it this way in that respect and again i'm not here to talk about morals here folks okay i mean we'll do that in a minute i'll give you my opinion on why we were justified to do this in a minute but just purely strategically and whatnot um but just passionately do you have to put it on the board that they're going to get these hits in they're going to have these effects there may be some downstream effects from that meaning you hit hell of a hard you may or may not have gotten um netanyahu much sad very cry on my part i hate hate bb um but and that may send the israelis to do something in response that you know creates another aftershock that's you know that you know rick to scale terms is one or two points higher than it should have been

right because then they fight amongst themselves and the iranians you know like you know that's where we are. And so we've had some oil infrastructure, oil and gas infrastructure hit. I'm sure Trump's not shedding a tear over it because, you know, if the Qataris can't export LNG, that just means that we're going to export more of it. And if Donald Trump's very transactional and, frankly,

amoral framework, that's good for America. We get paid for that shit. They owe us that money anyway, these fucking people. I'm sure that's what he's thinking in the White House. And I'm also sure he's thinking simultaneously just just surrender and let's get this over and done with and let's get you back to acting and

let's get the civilian you know i'm in the perfect world what trump wanted was a perfect house uh you know um decapitation strike right get the iranians to um realize they're they're beaten and then the civilian government that that still exists goes yep okay we're done and we're getting rid of these guys which is it's not realistic obviously um and then Trump's like cool uh we're in control of the oil flow coming out of the straits and we're going to make sure that your oil makes it to market and you're going to get paid for it and then it becomes Venezuela 2.0 because what he did in Venezuela was pretty obvious it goes in exfiltrates Maduro for a variety of reasons not the least of which is to get Maduro's frigging evidence

about the 2020 election and all that stuff and all the ledger books of what money and stuff has flowed through Venezuela all these years. Maduro, I never looked at as an actor that had any agency. He was a captured pawn sitting on a throne that we're all supposed to hate. And meanwhile, he's got his Praetorian, as Ian Burlingame likes to put it,

his Praetorian guards around him, keeping him in check and keeping him there. Trump comes in, exfiltrates him and the wife, just secures his family, slaughters all the Praetorian guards. They're in and out in four hours or six hours or whatever the hell it is. And then let's make a deal with the existing government that's there. Let's take that boot off of their neck and then allow the Venezuelan people to come up out from underneath that. And we begin the process, the slow process of allowing them, of helping them come out of this terrible position it's kind of the same thing he's doing with cuba

um those negotiations are going on and it's kind of the message it's not kind of the message it's exactly the same message he sent to mexico and the cartels oh by the way you're next and he keeps trying to tell more carney oh by the way i can see you up in canada um you're too fucking stupid to see what to see what's coming for whatever reason or just arrogant or whatever and again i see alberta sir i see alberta i i see so many things in my future but i don't know let's not even go there and but iran was also one of these network nodes that needed to be dealt with and iran would be the biggest problem which would require the biggest operation right over the most important physical choke point on the planet left panama canal mostly

taken care of. English Channel, not really important anymore. Straits of Malacca, it's important, but we're the ones patrolling it. So we're not going to stop the ships from falling because under Trump, we don't care that the Chinese get oil through the Straits of Malacca. When the neocons and the British were running our foreign policy, oh, the Straits of Malacca were important, which is why Singapore is a thing. Singapore is only a thing because of the Straits of Malacca and if you you know if you go back and I invite everybody to really look at a lot of the types of conflicts and low-level conflicts and whatnot that have happened in places like Malaysia and Myanmar and Bangladesh and like especially Shan State in the northern part of

Myanmar and then like and then you know northern Thailand and all that if you look at all that I used to study all this. I used to work with a guy. When I first started doing this, I was transitioning into doing it professionally before I went to work for Newsmax. I was working with a guy over in Vietnam. So I learned all about this stuff. I was there 2011, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, watching the Chinese try to figure out a way to get out from beyond the Straits by building up a port in Myanmar so that they didn't have to be bottled up by the Straits. And they were bringing in, they had a big oil and gas pipeline that they brought in from Myanmar to Kunming, the industrial city in the in the south just north of thailand right go through all that stuff and

every time you saw them try you saw the chinese trying to break around the bottleneck at the straits of malacca all of a sudden there was sectarian violence between muslims and and you know someone else and or whatever in myanmar or this place or that place i could literally pinpoint it to like individual places because you just see it happen over and over and over again i'm like oh that's so obvious that's kind of what began to you know train me and how how to look at the world that way right and then you can then you can look once you saw that and then so there's others around the world but these are the geographic choke points that need to go away these are the single points of failure that can be spun up at a moment's notice to in order

to create a an outsized response that has that then blackmails the world and say no you have to allow us and then the iranians come around and go you have to allow us to have nuclear weapons because it's our right, or we're going to bring global trade to a halt. Ah, fuck you, no. How about fuck you, no? Like, seriously, I mean, why do we even have to, like, what gives you the right? Because fuck you, that's why.

I mean, seriously, no, you don't get to do that. We as the humanity get to say no. It's like the guy sitting at the end of the – it's like the guy who controls the property next to the entryway to the burb clave saying, oh, no, you've got to pay me a toll after you register with the rent-a-cop at the freaking door. and we're like and everybody in the neighborhood behind them like in america like walking alone walk up with the 12 gauge going uh fuck you dude no this is what the ryanians are doing except it's a nuclear weapon and why because he mounted a 50 cal on his house so he's going to then tell us that we have to all like no at that point we all turn around and figure out a way to get you know get into his house take his 50 cal away from it beat him upside the fucking head go

no dude and that's enough like uh you know like how about elbow me jaw like done like and i'm doing that of course today because you know chuck norris just died and you know rest of you and chuck you know all hail all hail the chuck norris that dude was fucking badass um so like i don't know like this i i when a certain point when you stop and you bring it back to It's primitives. But we are. They're threatening. They're going to steal all our money.

They're going to make our children's lives terrible. They're going to do this. They're going to, well, you can just give us what we want. It would make sense that if these points of control around the world, now the focus being straight, is so critical and important to the city of London, then they would fight like death over it, right? Of course they would.

And they would build this thing in Iran up into this implacable enemy in the minds of everybody. They'd run the psychological operation. They would run the – they would support, absolutely support horrific Iranian propaganda for – I mean, give the Persians their due. It's the same thing with the Russians. Give the Russians their due. They're really good at propaganda. The Russians are really good at it. And I have a soft spot for the Russians.

I think they're justified in Ukraine. So, you know, I always felt the Russians were justified in Ukraine to stop NATO aggression in the same way that I think we're justified in going after Iran. I don't think Iran's a good guy. I never did. At one point, you know, in the past, I'll say this. In the past, especially, you know, the world has changed after 10-7, like it or not, okay? And not for the better.

But it was clearly the inciting incident to get us to where we are today. in this phase of history and i wish it didn't happen and all and everything i don't never wanted to see the israelis lose their minds and go you know blow up the palestinians the way they did it's disgusting right it's disgusting i mean i'm not you know i'm not mincing words here you know my nose is not big because i'm jewish it's fucking italian okay like i don't care i was raised woman catholic for christ's sake i you know i don't even i you know i i fucking know one goddamn thing about anything i don't care i don't like the israelis i never have okay but i can also dispassionately separate that from my opinion of them and uh with them acting in their

national interests you can argue whether or not they you think they deserve to have national interests or not. That's fine. I don't care. That's not reality. Reality is they have national interests. Iran has national interests. Iran chose a path. They chose a path to fake negotiate while they pursued nuclear weapons. They chose a path to not negotiate in good faith. I have peers that believed that they were. I disagree with them. I've told them this. Alex Cranor disagrees with me. Joaquin Flores disagrees with me. That's fine. You can believe what you want to believe. I believe they were negotiating exactly the same way they were when Obama was negotiating with them over the JCPOA. I haven't seen any change in behavior on their part. I don't make any

justifications for their actions, period. And they've been lying. And we've known for years that they were lying to the IAEA about their enrichment program, the number of centrifuges they had running, and everything else. I can even sit back and be generous and try and separate the clerics, not even calling them the mullahs, call them the clerics, who say, yeah, we issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons. Okay, great. Well, the IRGC is pursuing a nuclear weapon.

What are you doing to stop that? well maybe your shia clericism or whatever you want to call it your religious weight isn't enough to stop these religious crazies that are a military doing this terrible thing therefore i can so i can even look at hominy in the late the the late hominy or they both could be late at this point um as like maduro a captured pawn right i can see it i can i can construct that argument i don't have to believe it i don't have to believe it but i can construct it and then i can say well yeah maybe he was a captured pawn and maybe that maybe his foreign minister and the president and everyone and the civilian arm of the government and them were trying to negotiate

with the united states on the up and up but they were never going to do so if the irgc put a gun to their head and said negotiate like this the same way that maduro for years you know had a gun to his head and negotiated the way he did until trump could guarantee for him he had his family safety and then he rolled the dice and bet the dice and you know bet the farm on delta force pretty good bet on his part and the united states went in and the only reason we did that was because maduro had value to us as an asset now for the iranians they could have negotiated a new arrangement they could have said we no longer work where yeah they could have turned to london and gone trump's offering is this what do you got and if they say

we don't have anything which the british don't and the iranians still chose war brat and then the a-10 warhawk show up i mean that's my version of what happened and lead and the week leading up to february 28th that became a higher and higher and higher probability for me that that was what was going to happen and i even thought that trump was just going to do limited strikes to take out most of the irgc's command and control and then hope that that was going to be the end of it and then we get like a 12-day war and then give the iranians the ability to you know do a fake bombing and you know on one of our bases and save face and do this and we did the same thing we did before i never ever thought we didn't bomb ford allen the tans

see this is where some of my peers again i i'm not trying to um i'm not saying i'm not i'm trying to throw alex and joaquin under the bus here they had a different interpretation of events than i and they premised their analysis based on that premise and then when so they were convinced that last year it was a fake bombing and you know it was a fake set of bombs and it was a movie when we attacked the centrifuges yeah when we when we attacked the four down in the tans they just they just dropped a bunch of bombs out in the out in the desert and didn't do anything i'm like that's a i said from day one when that happens whatever that was june 26th or whatever i said oh that's a bad no no no we bombed that i know americans well enough to know that we bombed

that i know trump well enough to know we bomb that you don't don't over commit to that to that um that interpretation of events because it could lead you in the future to a bad you know analysis in the future if this ever comes up again which did and they were both convinced i'm not gonna attack the iranians are negotiating good faith we're setting up for the same exact thing as the last time bubble along like we all thought this before putin and moved into ukraine we all said there's not gonna be a war then putin comes in shock and awe does exactly the trump thing and this you know he's on he's knocking on the door kiev in the first 12 hours 24 hours 40 hours whatever the hell it was everybody keeps making that mistake because

no one wants to invite that level of chaos into their thinking but they don't want to plan for all of a sudden that becomes a very difficult thing like look it speaks to their humanity it speaks to their qualities human beings that they don't want they don't believe that that's you know that that's the way they view trump right that he wouldn't do something to them that was that abhorrent and so therefore to you know when you when you think of the psychology of the situation and i again don't mean to speak for you know grown men and everything else but i'm Trying to be as generous and as multi, you know, I'm trying to be not as generous, but just as, just as I can see it from a variety of different perspectives. But when I got done with the 12 day war last year, I sat down and I really, I really, me personally, I sat back and I went, I've got a lot of rethinking to do.

I have a lot of recalculation to do. And I did. And I came down on the, oh no. Now, that was an impressive operation, and Iran better have gotten the message. And if they didn't get the message, okay, one, then I get to double down over and over and over again that my newly founded site that, at that point, that Iran was actually working with City of London, right-hands, black-hands, the Alex Cranor put the right-hands and the black-hands in the jar, shake them up, and let them fight. they're funding the iranians on one side they're funding the israelis on the other you know welcome to war they profit on they profit on the chaos hey it's a good business model it's been serving the british for fucking 350 years like that's it between the british and

the dutch and everybody else have been it's a great business model if you it's good work if you can get it you know um it's horrific for humanity obviously and for the victims of it But, you know, from their perspective, it's a good business model. And, you know, Iran's actions, or at least the IRGC and the theocracy's actions after that support my interpretation of events. My map of whose incentives map to what and whose relationships map to what. You get the Promethean action ladies and some other ones coming in and go, oh, yeah, well, you know, this guy's got this money and, you know, a billion in a row in London and they've got this and they've got that. And then what you're watching after that is a bunch of people having to justify and cope that those relationships don't exist. And now they're trying to prove that negative as opposed to just saying, no, those relationships still exist.

And so there's a fundamental difference of perspective, which has led to a fundamental difference in analysis. And then I'm an American. Sorry. Yeah. At a certain point, it's stressful. It's anxiety-driven. And everybody's playing out their anxiety on their phones every day, including me. I'm not going to sit there.

I sleep well at night. Um, but everybody, I've been saying this for a while now, when we get maximally stressed, when we are having our base assumptions about how we think the world works, changes, or it's being challenged, we revert to primitives. And you know what my primitive is? Patent. I'm not kidding. like i go back and i watch the friggin first i watched the opening speech george c scott as

patent i watched that and i'm like i'm 12 years old again it's terrible but i say it's terrible i think in reality in in hindsight and it's funny because i mentioned this about two months ago i said i need to watch patent again you know and i watched it again and i said and i was watching it And I went, oh, and then I learned a lot more about Patton. I stopped just taking the movie as gospel. I really sat down and did a deep dive into Patton for about three days. Didn't get a lot of sleep. I was up on YouTube until six o'clock in the morning, like multiple nights in a row,

watching stuff about Patton. And I realized something about Patton I hadn't understood, which is that Patton fought war to minimize damage, to minimize loss of human life. He wanted to beat the enemy so fast that they did not know that they were beaten, and capture all of them, capture the position, move on to the next target, keep going, keep going, keep going. And before you know it, the war is over. A couple of thousand men are killed, 250,000 men are captured.

And the war is over. And the civilian damage has been almost none. Everybody wins. If you're going to fight a war, fight it like that. If you want to know how we're fighting the war here in Iran, the guys who were still picking up weapons they're getting vaporized yeah how uh you know but the civilian casualties are pretty low i mean they're not zero but they can't you can't you can't expect to be zero like at some point you know it's a tragedy it's terrible you know this is humanity

more messy yeah i mean the bombing of the girls school that was hard to uh hard to stomach but again just looking at this um dispassionately and going down like so like that's that's another thing i'm trying to figure out my mind now like speaking of collateral damage coming in many forms obviously energy infrastructure well this is one quick thing about this the school i i was you know i did not know anything about it i didn't spend any time looking at it i was listening to like my friend blaine holt about this this morning you know crypto rich the other day and he said um oh by the way um we have good intelligence now that that was actually a misfired iranian weapon that went backwards and you know it was they were doing you know it it was a terrible

thing it's collateral damage it's you can say we we we caused it we did not bomb the school and again i'm i'm okay i'm okay and i'm not saying that's like oh my god we're the americans are so great and i'm trying to hope my way around it no if we bomb the school we bomb school like obama bomb drone struck americans for fuck's sake okay you want to talk about why i crashed out as a human being saying okay let's fuck this you these people don't get to do anything on my watch anymore because of the drone striker in chief and this i used to call them obamia right oh dash bomb Bash. Yeah, that was my name for him for years. And it still is. I still think he's

a fucking scumbag. And, you know, and he's drone striking Americans, no less everybody else. You know, look, again, you know, we can sit here and we can talk about it however we can talk about, you know,

I can sit here and I can flash to, you know, Ozymandias at the end of Watchmen going, I did it. And you know do you have to swallow it i don't know i mean you hope that you don't you know he dropped a nuclear bomb for all intents and purposes movie version he drops a nuclear bomb comic book version he drops a freaking psychic weird you know thing on new york and kills six million people um ethical moral argument the same but i'm not making that

decision i don't have to agree or disagree with the decision in that respect if the long-term outcome is that this amount of violence leads to a lot less violence in the future and a lot less cost for everybody and the iranian people get to live the way that what if they choose that they want to go back and live like they did before the war that's their that's their prerogative just expect that in about 15 or 20 years the united states can come back over again they're to bomb the fuck out of you well that's you know because that's what america's americans are pretty much

in agreement about that the polling i'm seeing on the war is like yeah this is justified well that's what i i i question the polling whether or not it's legit no i think i i don't yeah i don't i really don't want not seeing any other day was like mega 100

support that's obvious that's obvious fucking thing shit but like it was like like 89 90 percent of republican voters and you know 75 or 60 to 70 percent of of americans in general and obviously trump hasn't tried to really justify the war he's just been he's just been running it he's not really out there every day going we're doing this for because he knows the american people don't believe it anymore bush used to go out there and do that but obama and clinton went out there and tried to sell it as a humanitarian war i'm like no i'm not selling this this is not

a humanitarian war this is purely in our geostrategic interests that's it and that's its power politics so we're not gonna you know not trying to not trying to sugarcoat this folks this is what we have to do well i mean and to his credit in that respect that's the and that's what he's doing well that's going to take the pull and he's willing to take the political hit for as well i've noticed well that was that was like the point i was going to make like the uh the timing of it all leading up to midterms like another form of collateral damage is possible what happens in november um trump said the other day he said someone asked him directly about the well why did you do this it may hurt you in the midterms he's like because it's the

right thing to do and if i have to make every decision based on what some short-term political gain or loss is going to is going to net me um i can't govern the country this is the right thing to do and i get it and i'll i'll you know and basically i'll fix it in post if i have to I think he'll be fine from a political perspective if this thing doesn't drag on too far. And again, everybody like trying to turn around and say, oh, it's not over in three days. And it's clearly a loss.

I'm like, that's just adjunct prop, a low quality Iranian adjunct prop. That's bullshit. It's also people in high neuroticism that are worried about, I have friends who are hyper worried about what Israel is trying to get us to do and what they're going to do.

And I, and we're talking about people who were Israeli. Okay. And I've been listening to them very carefully. And, and I understand their worry. And then again, at one point I said, but, you know, you know, choose being nervous about things. It's kind of par for the course. There are, there are people that are, that are, that are high in anxiety and they have every right

to be. I'm not, again, that's not a judgment, right? That's just a statement of, you know, the dominant personality traits of most Jews. And like, I grew up in New York, I grew up on behalf of my friends. I mean, seriously, dude, I grew up in like New York. Like you understand that more people, more Jews live in New York city than live in Tel Aviv, right? Like I grew up in upstate new york like half of my own half of the kids that i took my honors classes in high school with that i went to school with in the time i'm fucking five until i graduated at 18 half of these kids were jewish i mean so many of them i didn't think it was whether i didn't give a shit one way the other half were italian the 20 and 10 of them were irish i'm not kidding right it was literally

like you know so a couple of irish a bunch of italians and a bunch of jewish kids and a couple heritage you know crosses that were effectively heritage americans you know i mean i you know my i'll give you a perfect example my best friend that i grew up with my entire life all the way up to 18. his mom's family traces back to francis lewis who signed the freaking declaration of independence and his father was a german jew okay and he was the town engineer and they were democrats and my dad was like the only republican in town like you know what i mean like well you know not really it's you know upstate new york is much more red than you know i'm i'm talking not very upstate new york i grew up in orange county um and it was just like you

know it's like the the bronx westchester rockland orange right um so it's just up the hudson river about an hour north of the city um is there no i'm like i'm i'm very i'm very comfortable with understanding you know that you know those people i'm like in that respect what i know i'm like i'm friends with her today you know like what are they but they're also lovely people what's that what are they worried what are they worried they're worried about israel going off half-cocked and you know wanting to do what they did in gaza to the iranians and getting the isa to do it for them and i i don't have a you know and again this is they're saying this because they're you know this is you know they're not cheering this they're very worried about it they don't

want to see that because then they say then and then and then they go from there to and then world war three happens you know and none of us want that so that's their you know they're going through the tail risk that and they're but they're focusing on the weaknesses and threats of the SWOT analysis, S-W-O-T analysis, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, they're focused on weaknesses and threats as opposed to strengths and opportunities. Now, so what I tend to do, because so many people focus on weakness and threat, because that sells click-wise, and because that is the default state of our media, both mainstream, conventional legacy and alternative and all of the psyops that they that these people have access to

money-wise to produce i tend on to stay and spend more of my time looking at the converse because that's who i am and look at the strengths and the opportunities and then try and balance everything out because the weaknesses and threats are like in front of everybody but no one's talking about the strengths and the opportunity very few we're talking about the strengths and opportunities and so you know again you can hate me for it if you want i'm talking to the audience not you i know you don't hate me um you can hate me for it if you want that's fine you can call me i've been a part of the seven thousand dollar club or on this and that shit like i don't care like i am like i get accused of that 20 times a day on twitter it's great um i just have a very large

block file on it not hard right um and uh and i'm still such a fundamentally free speech kind of guy i still feel bad about blocking people even though i know they're bots i mean i want to have a conversation with everyone i'm not i know i can't do that that i'm not in a position to do that anymore i'm not a guy with 1200 people following or 150 people following me on twitter trying to have a conversation you know i'm a guy with a you know fairly reasonably sized platform they're trying to move the needle and and to interject you know some something approaching signal into all of this noise for you to digest and do with what you will i don't you know i don't have no control over that so i'm not going to try and if you want to have a conversation with me honestly

like you and i do whenever we get together um you want to have that even have that on twitter we can do that just understand that my hackles are up all the time because they have to be so you know Come in, I mean, to the audience, if you want to have a conversation with me on Twitter, come in and make sure that you structure your tweet properly. Don't say, Tom, I love you, but that's an auto-block. Because that's MI6, like all day, every day. Okay, just don't say that.

Like just come in and go and say, honest question, blah, blah, blah, blah. If I answer you with an honest response and you give me a second honest response to that, i know i know that you're not going to get blocked anytime soon i'll say just like lose patience with your argument or just mute you or whatever but i will at least give you the opportunity like like a lot of people they get one strike now i used to give everybody three strikes now you get you get a lot of people get one most people get three and a lot of people don't you know get an infant number because i know they're because i've been talking with them

for so long that i know they're good people they may disagree with me that's fine so leaning into strengths and opportunities i mean i think the most obvious if you're looking to the fog of war is this this sort of shifting of leverage uh in terms of control over energy systems from the mid-east to to the united states and i think there was a deal between japan in the the u.s yesterday with selling selling alaskan oil to japanese and nasa had that that uh that analysis a few days ago i'm actually going to speak with the nasa monday um this is an interesting guy nasa is an interesting guy i don't always agree with him but he's at least not i i think he's an honest broker well he he actually part of his analysis like made me think of you because

was a whole narrative about they're only letting chinese ships through because they're um because they're settling in yuan outside the dollar and this is like a retaliation but then the nas pointed out well actually the chinese ships are getting through because they have chinese insurance and they right are actually insured i was like oh they're insuring they're they're insured and the iranians don't dare as anas has pointed out multiple times the iranians actually don't dare um blow up a bunch of oil tankers because then they can't run their desalination plants and then they destroy then they destroy their power base by cutting off their head despite their nose their very large persian noses yeah like you know what i mean

um in that respect do you view this as one of the strengths of now a potential outcome oh yeah no it's absolutely a strength it's absolutely the i think it's the point of the entire exercise the point of the entire exercise is to remove the straight as a physical choke point for the entire world if the entire world wants it to happen meaning if if the people on this the people on this is the problem with the straits and the persian gulf one side doesn't want once everybody doesn't really want the oil to flow they want to use it as a means by which to you know either put up a toll booth or i'm talking about the iranians now or threaten everybody and then use that to get advantages and other and then get rent in other forms right concessions that they don't deserve

money pallets of money from obama whatever the fuck it is on the other side are all the gulf states and they're playing and they've been playing the double game for years and you know that trump has like worked really hard to bring them all in line and you know like qatar and bahrain and others they're all uae they're all in fucking london's pocket back but they've been in london's back pocket for years like they're not they're not independent actors either and This is, again, two sides of the same coin here, or the same side of two different coins. Same thing. They just want to sell oil, right?

They just want to make money. They're just a bunch of nouveau riche Arabs at the end of the day. But Trump has an ally in MBS in Saudi Arabia. And Saudi Arabia rules the roost at the end of the day. These guys are effectively just the same group of people. So, goes back, go back to Trump's first foreign visit, first term, where'd he go? In Saudi Arabia. And it was to start this process that we're not paying off now.

So we end that nonsense where everybody gets to pay, gets to charge a little extra for the oil and LNG and this and that and everything else because of the Persian Gulf and because of the Straits of Hormuz and because we've got, you know, we've got all, we've got this whole network of incentives bound up on this really messy chessboard, right? And I'm going to make an analogy here in a minute that I think you'll appreciate. But the straights don't have to be a physical choke point, right? It doesn't have to be. It is this way because of this messy chessboard that the British and the French and the local players have all created for everybody else to fucking deal with. and then we were forced and then we because we were getting paid on our oligarchs were also getting paid for years on this and we were aligned with the british to do this terrible freaking

like you know we were getting paid too okay fine and then we were and worse than everything else the british were doing it all and we were getting blamed for it as the world was getting tired of this whole thing because we all everybody's tired of the american empire like running around like free rambo without a jockstrap blowing up people starting color revolutions and and all this shit right we're all tired of this game but it's the british's game but we're getting all we're getting all the the the flack for it right and in some ways the iranians are getting a lot of our flack now so how about we all stop taking flack for somebody else let's handle that system that's basically what trump's offer has been to everybody in the region is the countries

you got to show up at the board of peace to rebuild gaza is your um is your prima facie evidence that everybody's ready for this moreover russia and china trying to bring as many people into the bricks is also prima facie evidence that everybody's tired of the game but with the different outcomes right that was built if that was built on the premise that the united states was inseparable from nato in europe right that's what bricks was based on but if that is no longer the case because clearly trump wants out of fucking nato and he wants out of all this shit well then brexit is unnecessary now so now the board of peace becomes a much much more interesting um angle on this because now it circumvents all the post-world war ii institutions that were

created the imf the world bank the the the the specifically the un obviously now nato and all this stuff all these things can be broken down so there's an opportunity right here's a strength we get rid of the straits and the whole chaos premium of the entire planet if you take iran off the board you take lloyds of london off the board you take this you bring the arab countries in line and say look at the end of the day you have to like you know you have to pay you have if you you're if you don't want to provide shipping insurance for your own ships you don't want to insure your own voyages that's fine we'll do it for you you can do it through our system because our and you don't want to build the navy fine you only want to build a commercial fleet

to find and you're going to pay the u.s navy and the u.s insurance system directly so the american taxpayers don't have to pay for it we can turn a cost center into a mild profit center with a cost plus business model that's the way trump is thinking about this and that is a strength for the entire world because now all of a sudden the chaos premium for goods and services and moving shit around the world comes down because there's nobody actually fomenting well assuming that the united states doesn't revert to its to all the shit that we learned from the british and start then becoming the dudes that do that do the terrible thing but if you look at the way trump has been building all of his trade deals he's been building his trade deals to cut everybody

as a partner hey let's let's get your natural gas or your oil or your minerals or whatever and let's get it let's get them up out of the ground let's build businesses and let's put those businesses in australia where we're extracting the or the iron ore from or whatever word is that we're going to do with the australians or the coal or this and that same thing in the same thing in highlands same thing in central and south america he's trying to cut everybody in as a partner not at not be a colonial extraction saying we want we want all your oil at pennies on the dollar no we just want everybody to pay retail and maybe at the end of the day we really you know and again like and this is how you know that you're dealing with americans and not jews because

he wants everybody to pay retail oh i'm sorry i just made a joke didn't i and make money by make money by bringing down the cost of protection right with the cost of protection the cost of the chaos what what does it cost to run the world in insurance costs and forex costs and this and that and the stress of the budget the political cost domestically and we we all have to spend how much money are we spending on income taxes and regulatory fees and this and then all this all this like draws that we're all looking at like i saw something this afternoon it was hilarious and you know again at the end of the day like what does it mean but somebody ran a an analysis through grok of like the entirety of the eu's regulatory scheme and grok said we can get rid

of 86 percent of it and nothing and and honestly nothing about the eu would change i think is i think that was you know it's like like and we could do the same thing with the code of federal regulations like the cfr the code of the cfr have you ever read the cfr no like i i've had to when i used to be a chemist i used to have to read all the the code of federal regulations for the um the the sections pertaining to you know environmental analysis which is where i was i was working in environmental labs testing water and soil and everything else so i had to know what all the the methods were they were on the they're on the cfr like they're all in there and and and everything downstream so i had to know all those rules i had to know all that shit you wanted to

be a qc officer of an accredited laboratory and i had to know this stuff right i i dude like there's nothing like i i'm already a difficult i'm already it's really hard for me to read in the first place i've never been a particularly good reader and i'm not very fast oh my god my eyes dry right the fuck out and i'm asleep in 13 seconds it's awful it's really bad i don't know how anybody does it what i want to touch on before is like obviously the war the narratives about the war the energy infrastructure all very visible right in front of everybody one of my favorite sort of uh under the radar signals that i love talking about what's going on with interest rates what um oh how are they reacting so it's what are they telling you brilliantly actually

this is why again this is a part of the reason why when you ask me like how's it going like everything is everything is proceeding as i have foreseen i hate to say it right um i hate to invoke the sheave palpatine but you know um british guilts 10-year british guilts uh closed at just over five percent today german uh 10-year german bonds closed over three percent lagarde is losing control over the german tenure um because everybody's money's on the ground so everything's getting sold gold got hit silver got hit. I didn't look at the equity markets. I can actually pull them up. I'm sure that the Dow was down today a little bit. And it's not really that important. But with the big one, I was watching

bond spreads and I've been watching them all week because I'm watching them widen. And so while the U.S. yield curve is selling off, I mean, in this environment, money should go to ground, right? Money should just go. I don't know what the fuck to do. Like oil is $100 a barrel. I've got contracts I've got derivatives blowing up. I've got this. I've got that. I've got private equity going. Dude, I need money.

That's it. That's it. And so here's the journey. So the US 10-year closed to 438, but the UK closed 62 basis points above that. Now, it was trading in the 20s before the war. 20 basis points over the US, right? Now, right in the 62. when it starts getting into the 60s governments start falling or something bad or the brits need

to cut a deal in order to keep their government from falling this has happened before so they're clearly the target here because they're the ones that are losing control over the markets moreover then we take it one step further and we look at the brent wti spread and that's 13 14 dollars what is that telling you it's telling you that the world is there's plenty of WTI out there but the Brent contract is rising

you know Oman I think Oman was like loading at $160 a barrel today or something I don't know you know the numbers are all out there and everybody's doing their agitprop thing on Twitter we're all looking at the same shit right and we all think we're informed we're all looking at the same shit and we all think we're informed what's important is

what does that mean? What it means is that Trump is okay with in Donald Trump's world we're getting an extra $30 a barrel for oil that we were before. Qatar's not exporting LNG. We got plenty of LNG. Back for gas prices of $3 a

million BTUs in the United States. You know who's making money hand over fist right now? Chenier. The guys who run the big export terminal down in louisiana they're making a fortune because lng prices around the world are through the roof and feedstock prices are boring they're at the bottom of the freaking law the bottom of the long long end trading range coming out of winter where i mean come on and like chenier is going to make

money hand over fist this year right um um and their last earnings report was quite good actually um so trump's like oh yeah we got plenty of lng this is great the country's getting rich in his mind money that comes back to the united states in that respect is the united states getting rich he's not wrong right we're getting a premium from our stuff and so to him that's a strength that gives him the opportunity to then turn around and continue to press harder meanwhile natural gas prices you know on on the dutch um trading floor have doubled since before the war and they can't afford it there now they're like screaming that everybody now you know they're screaming at everybody you have to turn down your air conditioners you have

to do that you have to not heat your homes you're gonna not take you gotta take cold showers and all this stuff and like typical freaking europeans like uh we fucked up but you have to do what we tell you to do like uh how about no how about i'm gonna buy whatever i can and then there's impoverishing people left and right and then you know and then there's ursula von der lane standing out there going we haven't decided yet whether or not we're going to you know accept russian oil and even even though last year they bought more natural gas from the russians than they ever have by the way which is hilarious she does this shit and it's just it's just pathetic um you just launder it through india right or is that yeah i can just do that too exactly it doesn't really

matter like at the end of the day i mean it was the simplest run in the world right st petersburg to rotterdam and back again like it was the simplest run and it's been and it's been shut off for four years and okay what do you think you're going to accomplish with this like um they still think that consensus politics matters consensus politics does not matter notice how when when um they were trying to get consensus politics over 90 billion dollar loan to ukraine and Hungary and Slovakia said, no, they gave Ukraine the money anyway.

I guess that velvet glove's gotten worn real fucking thin because I can see the iron fist you Nazi bitch. Seriously. There it is. Look, it's made of iron. It's even a little rusty because

they lost control. They don't even have the good steel going through the german german plants anymore coming out of freaking the iron ore coming out of the sedaten line which is why we're invading the czechs in the first place because they have the best steel and that's why czech guns are better than everybody else's guns yada yada yada i was like i i'll take now turn marty's channel into a cz commercial and we'll be here all night well i show you pictures of my gun like and i'll go get my podcast gun and go bring it out like i love my cz there's a reason for it it's a great gun it's you know it's made out of this

fucking check steal that you can't kill so I mean are they back like do you think they're getting to the point where they are stressed enough where it's like okay let's make a deal not quite yet not quite yet they're not gonna

give Trump this one yet they're not the French the Germans the Italians the Japanese interesting you say those four names together the French the Germans the Italians the Japanese you mean the four our four enemies in world war ii and i i mean that when i say the french um they're all finally saying like hey we'll bring ships we'll send ships to the to the straight

of war movies to protect the oil it only took them 24 hours you know trump's like well let's leave nato all right all right fine we'll come it's like i was like spain at the end of the beginning of the war we're not gonna let you refuel your ships in spain fight embargo spain I don't know that was just Felipe he'd cry cry that's not don't listen to him no no no you can refill your ships like fuck do you think you have any leverage

over the United States Spain like really okay like this is the part that everybody I hate the I know the I know people hate it when I do this but you know everybody's tired of the vulgar American

you know reminding everybody that we're more powerful than they are but Kind of are. What you hope for is that we use that power responsibly. And what everybody's angry about, including myself for very many years, that we didn't. So how about you cut Trump a little bit of slack and you say he's using this power. It's an awesome power. The danger is that he gets the messianic complex and starts overusing it.

i am that that's actually to me the biggest hell risk out here is that you know donald trump's sense of grandiosity gets the better of him i know that's why i'm not president mad king lens yeah mad king lens as you would dude seriously that's why that's why there's never going to be a president long ago trust me because dude i had a bomb that were on fucking 15 years ago and i and i didn't use nukes i'm dude i'm italian and i'm a little sicilian i i i'll cray cray um uh but i go really we're gonna play that game oh yeah you get into the disrespect game with italians like that's it we're done we go from zero to ieta at no time flag trump is far more far more uh statesman like than i was with dexter white and i talk about this

shit all the time like there's a reason why we're not president and we're good at what we do for this reason and this is our this is our ceiling we're good we're good with this you know that's it no more and um yeah i i don't i don't i'd have i have vlad i had putin like wipe out the wipe out the cia in afghanistan 15 years ago i'd have paid i'd have paid putin to send the spetsnaz in and kill and kill all the cia shields oh absolutely absolutely um i and no and the president luongo i would have done that at the inauguration on the jumbotron i would have had the satellite footage of them getting of our guys getting wiped out by the russian spetsnaz on the jumbotron at the inauguration yeah we don't want to be as president uh the bad no no not good

um not very statesman like but um this shit is over no this is not good so um so taking it you know going coming back to reality um and getting rid of all the you know roger waters you know wall like fantasies um what trump is doing is a very in many ways targeted and measured thing it just doesn't look it because iran is actually a sincere was a sincere enemy i know i mean i i the way i look at the way operation epic fury i hate these fucking names but that is what it is so trump operation epic fury oh my god dude it's like okay fine um operation midnight hammer like okay whatever um it's like he's still running the apprentice or some shit but um at the beginning of it they didn't fuck around they respected iran's ability to strike back

and that's why they went in the way they did and you know we can you know i'm trying to keep it and we're talking about heavy heavy shit here so i'm trying to keep it at least reasonably entertaining right um give the you know give the iranians their due right so one of the things i I've thought about this whole thing is the Iranians like to play chess because they created the game. That's their game. Chess is a Persian game. Yeah, I mean, maybe the Russians play it better than everybody else.

You know, all the great Russian chess masters over the years, right? But this is an Iranian game. It's the way they think. People build games, and the games they build are a reflection of their culture. so Europeans make very dry board games that are all about they're all very technocratic I play a lot of them

I like a lot of them I have 200 of them on the bookshelf down in Florida I also have about 20 or 30 American games which are messy and very there's a lot of random and there's a lot of

you call them Ameritrash I'm not kidding in the board game community there's Ameritrash and there's Euro this is a Euro style game this is an Ameritrash game there's like all these not hybrids and then some of the game design stuff is really interesting but what's the

quintessential American game Monopoly no, it's poker oh yeah specifically it's Texas Hold'em bluff Specifically, not five-card stud or five-card draw.

Not five-card draw, not seven-card stud, not any Texas fucking Hold'em. And specifically, no limit, Texas Hold'em. Texas Hold'em is a game of partial, it's a perfect game in that respect because it's a game of somewhat hidden information and somewhat shared information, right? cards in the middle everybody gets shared but we all have our whole cards those whole cards are everything how you bet your whole cards how you what your strategies are and everything else how you bluff your whole cards iranians aren't particularly good at playing poker they're

actually i mean the irgc the the people who've been running iran they're terrible playing poker they're the worst poker players in the world because their tells are all over the place they you can i can watch i can almost predict what they're going to say next and whatever they're like little whenever they sit down to start doing their their their negotiations well let's negotiate about this war we just lost you don't get to negotiate over what you've lost sorry so what they did was they were trying to bind up the game board with all this it's chess well if this happens then they do this and i've got this worked out six moves in advance and you've only got five moves in advance because you're donald trump and you're not you know you're donald trump you only

We think two moves in advance because you're an American. We think six, seven, eight moves in advance. And that's what the Iranian propaganda that we see on Twitter is all about. Well, you don't realize that the Iranians have got this up their sleeve, and then they're going to do this, and then they're going to do this. That's cute. Trump's like, all in. We're not playing chess.

We're playing poker. Sun Tzu. I don't know. I haven't read Sun Tzu in years. I don't remember much of it, but I'll tell you this. There's only a couple of precepts you really have to remember. Always leave your enemy a golden bridge to retreat over. And never fight on ground prepared by your enemy.

If you want to win, the Iranians and the British will also love to play this messy game. And specifically, as Vince Launcey reminded me one day when we were doing this or having this conversation, he's like, oh, and the British open in chess is to muck the whole fucking board up. just wind it all down like it's called the british open right i'm seriously it has a name apparently i'm not a chess i'm not a chess player because i don't have the fucking patience for it i'm a poker player and i play poker like trump i'm a very aggressive poker player it gets it catches me in the ass and i have a very very certain limit i know i know exactly where i'm going to lose all my money that's the guy i'm going to lose all my money to yep there it is it's gone

I, many times, but at least I know my limit, right? I know my, you know, I'm not making a pun about the no limit versus the limit. I know what kind of, what my ceiling is and skill as a poker player is. I can have moments of like brilliance, but you know, I don't have the stamina to play 12, 15 hours and do it right.

So, but I understand well enough to know that what Trump did was he took a chess board and said, no, no, no, we're not playing chess. Game's over here, and it's no limit hold. And I got a big stack, and you're fronting like you got a big stack and a bunch of rebuys, but you have a teeny stack, and I know you do. Fuck you. I'm moving all in, and I know you've got two 10 offsuit.

And I know you're playing a Doyle Brunson, and we didn't flop a two or a 10. That's the way he played this. and i you know to me that's a very smart and strategic dude like don't play their game he's done this so he's a power politics kind of guy he's a power poker kind of guy he negotiates that way you know he does it all the time the europeans keep wanting to play these technocratic games and it's all about i can i score 212 points and you score 211 so i won by what one point like who cares you know and that kind of thing it's just like it's it's very passive-aggressive it's very i mean they're fun they're fun puzzles i'm getting

wrong i play a lot of these games and i think and i and i play them for blood of course um but you know and they are fun and they're good diversions and they're and they're also very good um exercises for brain training and puzzle you know all that stuff great but at the same time the end of the day there's the messy shit about hidden information tactics versus strategy and how you sucker somebody into making a move that they don't have a plan so i look at the iranians and i'm like oh look their their limit is they can play at the three six table you know if you're playing limit holding trump's a fucking 500 1000 player like he can play at the five at the 500 1000 table you know he can walk in to vegas with 60

rebounds with you know with 60 000 in his pocket and comfortably play at that table yeah yeah the the aragachi and those guys you know they they better they better not bring more than 300 dollars to the table or 500 to the table because they're gonna fucking wait well i guess to end it on that like when when will we know if they have been white i think this thing's over next i think i hate to make predictions like this obviously but we're starting to see the cracks the strips ships are starting to move these straits trump laid out the conditions today for getting our insurance which is or getting our escort navy escort which is you have to buy our insurance boys is of course arm twisting everybody behind the scenes saying if you sign up with trump you're

never going to get any insurance from us ever again. And that's nice. And that's going to slow things down. It's part of the reason why this is taking, what's going to take longer than everybody is comfortable with. The Iranians who are trying to negotiate are trying to negotiate with their pile of uranium and the Straits.

They're trying to set up a toll booth on Kesham Island and, you know, charge a toll. That's cute and all, but the Tripoli and the light carriers are coming. And that's a very big tell that Trump understands what the mission is there, to bring the Marines in with those ships. When I understand, I'm not a military armaments expert, but I've talked to enough people who are. They're like, no, these are the exact right tools for the job, along with whatever else we're flying and what we're doing out of Bahrain and Doha. so what i would say and now diego garcia because the british finally let us like yeah okay we were

flying shit up there if we weren't flying shit diego garcia because the british were you know holding their nose and you know being british like i i i would i lose respect for trump i would have i would have flown fucking planes out of out of diego garcia on day one and go fuck you like say say what again motherfucker like sam jackson at the beginning of the publication say what again motherfucker what i got i got guys i got i got i got snake eaters sitting at you know in the north of england we'll just go and take fucking 10 downing street fuck off we're doing this and we know that you're in and we know you're involved and trump's everything trump has said has done this entire demeanor is so obvious this is what he's doing they're the fucking target he

wants their business he wants their business and he wants to make it and he wants to provide it cheaper and with less drama than what we've seen in the past and if you take all the nuclear weapons off the table and i i'm going to leave everybody with one last little bit of hope so but all of those things i think are signals that if we see movement on all those fronts including the iranians continuing to try and negotiate over a war they bossed that this thing could be over very quickly two three weeks or whatever it's going to take oil prices will start to come down well we're we've got the secondary effects that there's a a big there's a potential liquidity crunch here and and credit squeeze and banks are going to go under and also i i think that's

already happened i'll be honest with you i think it's happening in it was happening before around i think it's happening in uae i think it's going to happen in london i think it's going to happen and various other places. I've already seen some stuff about that. But the big one is this. I'm going to just put this in everybody's head. You do realize that maintaining nuclear weapons is extremely expensive.

They have a very high cost technical maintenance cycle. They keep those warheads refreshed to the point where you have a critical mass. Because if they go subcritical, they don't go boom. so supposedly pakistan is a nuclear state pakistan's poor the british are poor can they mean have are they mean are they fronting that they have even have nuclear weapons the israelis aren't particularly rich either by the way unless we're you know we're maintaining them what about the british

warheads that are our warheads if Trump is like fuck you people I'm not going to maintain your nuclear weapons for you to me Trump looks like a guy who just wants to get rid of nukes like hey everybody let's get rid of the nukes

and do we really need nukes anymore when we have lasers from space and drones and drones and this and that and everything else and precision missiles which can hit 99% of the time, hit military targets and leave the civilian population alone.

Why do we have to threaten civilian mass casualties? The reason we developed nuclear weapons is because we couldn't not hit civilian targets. We had nothing but dumb bombs. Now we got like these, now we can like put a fucking tomahawk through a goddamn window, right? Like we don't have to involve the people in it.

We don't have to threaten the people. This is not to say that these wars are going to be fought with zero civilian casualties, but we can minimize or we can maximize the ratio of military assets wiped out versus civilian infrastructure and civilian casualties. And if we can reach that level, and I think we're already there, what the fuck do we need nuclear weapons for anymore? Why don't we just spin down all that uranium and use it to power plants and do other things with it? Wouldn't that be nice?

Plutonium and everything else. Wouldn't that be a better world? We don't have enough weapons to beat the shit out of each other with conventional weapons. The great using Bitcoin for denuclearization, you prove that you're denuclearizing by hashrate going up. It's been a theory. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

That is, that's not a bad argument. It's something that's been in my head now for a little while. I don't talk about it very often because invariably I never get to it. but i've thought about it you know i've talked about it a couple times now in the last month or so and the more i think about it the more i'm like i've just been saying like we have the ability to go back and fight 15th century wars where the king raises an army the army meets on the field the two armies meet on the field they fight one retreats the other wins then the general show and everybody calls a truce the generals show up they sign a peace treaty borders move

And other than the armies that were mustered, you know, stealing from the people on their way in, which they did, but other than that, and the taxes that were used from the people to pay for the army, at the end of the day, yeah, and there were conscripts. I know it was, but most of warfare wasn't fought by civilians. They weren't threatened. It was the King's War. It was over there. now it's far more the operative model than what we've been dealing with in the industrial age of warfare which is horrific and horrible and of an affront to humanity why don't we stop doing if we have these precision weapons we don't need to do that anymore we just blow the armor up and

then look at each other and go this is really dumb we're wasting money we're wasting good men like it's like it's like that it's like that scene in Patton what he's like wiping out um like at El Gatar and this is the first at the first battle and he goes what a waste of fine inventory right yeah as he says as his guys are wiping out the Germans you know god what a what a waste of fine inventory yeah that's let's let's let's change the mindset that way I want Well, I did on that. I just want to say, I asked you to help me step back from the ledge. Somebody has been looking through different lenses, letting one lens dominate the other at different points in time. I hope you're right. That's sort of why, Marty. Everybody hopes. Obviously, I hope I'm right. I don't know if I'm going to be right. And even if I'm only 65% right, it's still better than what most people are projecting. so you know we're going to be dealing with probabilities here and we're going to be

dealing with you know outcomes uh as best we can they're not we're not going to be comfortable with all of them the return of power politics when we've all been trained believe in consensus politics makes us all uncomfortable because when we watch people when we watch people do it we're like holy shit yeah because we were all told that that's the those are the actions of dictators well what if they're not the active actions of dictators what if that's actually what responsible leadership's supposed to look like yeah yeah i mean i've never lived in it so i don't know and my natural instinct is like yours to go but i've had to like really embody that mindset and i was able to do so because i was able to go back to an old version

of myself when i was younger and far more belligerent than i am today and go oh and then incorporate everything i've learned over the years about why the violence is wrong and all this shit's wrong and go okay um nope every once in a while a war is just you can disagree with me whether you think this war is just or not given the last 300 years of history and given how badly we've been fucking with the iranian people i'm sorry um the irgc is fucking evil and needs to be wiped out the fuck off fuck off i don't give a shit anymore and i and i'm and i'm done being blackmailed by a bunch of belligerent friggin muslims with nuclear fire i'm over it and i'm and i'm over with the the british the limeys and i'm over with the jews

and i'm over with our with with our people and everything on no more none that's it i'm done i check out at nuclear fucking fire so let's we'll we'll we'll lay the we'll we'll plant the flag there and then we'll start working backwards from it because somebody asked me when i said that the other day on twitter somebody went well what about pakistan i'm like i don't think pakistan should have fucking nukes either and i'm and i'm still angry with the british for giving them to in the first place matter of fact i don't think the brits are fucking nuclear weapons what the fuck what the fuck have they done to deserve nuclear weapons yeah done it's always a great way to end friday yeah that's the way i look at it yeah i think uh we should catch up in a few

months hopefully again like i said i hope you're right a few weeks me too things and uh my schedule is going to be you know my podcast schedule is going to be down in april i've got i go to cornerstones calgary next week and i've got a bunch of stuff happening in april may and june actually i'm going to be traveling for most of the summer and and i'm going to be recovering from getting my teeth pulled and a lot of stuff going on. So it's going to be one. So yeah, I think I'll probably be ready to chat with you again. I mean, you know, I may, may or may not, but you know, July is what is looking good. Like late June, early July. He did the summer. He did the summer. It'll be 80 degrees out here. I'll be sweating a little bit and pontificating. It'll

be fantastic. Sounds good. All right, Marty, you have a great weekend. Best of the sprog and the wife and all your children and all of that stuff. And we'll get, we'll, we'll talk soon. you too brother peace and love freaks okay thank you for listening to this episode of tftc if you've made it this far i imagine you got some value out of the episode if so please share it far and wide with your friends and family we're looking to get the word out there also wherever you're listening whether that's youtube apple spotify make sure you like and subscribe to the show and if you can leave a rating on the podcasting platforms that goes a long way last but not least if you want to get these episodes a day early and ad free make sure you download

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