TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #734: The Generational Wealth Heist with Nick Nemeth

Episode Date: April 8, 2026

Marty sits down with Nick Nemeth to discuss how private equity firms have rendered 29 of the top 30 US life insurers technically insolvent through accounting fraud, offshore reinsurance shell games, and risky private credit investments that threaten to trigger a crisis larger than 2008. Nick on X: https://x.com/NickNemo17 Nick’s Substack: https://mispricedassets.substack.com/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBz Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Bitcoin 2026 - Las Vegas http://bit.ly/3NA9xQh OPNEXT https://tinyurl.com/tftc2026 CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free if you talk about a fed just gone nuts all all the central banks going nuts so it's all acting like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. McNamath, welcome to the show, sir. Thanks for having me on. Well, I'm pumped to have you on, like I was telling you. I love your energy. I binge your YouTube channel last night, read one of your recent articles, and I think we should just jump into it. So you've been saying that

29 of the top 30 life insurance companies in america are technically insolvent uh if you strip out one accounting trick so that means if you're out there you're listening you have a life insurance policy an annuity a pension the money backing that claim might not actually exist and i think just starting off there how did you back into this claim so the private credit part that everyone's talking about bingberg wall street journal i quickly quickly realized athene is a big part of this we kind of all knew that so i'm looking into wait a minute how much is this actually levered and they say in their consolidated equity it's only they say they have 13 billion dollars of equity they say it's my ass says um i don't know 20 times levered 24 times

levered but you're trusting bermuda holdco's and you're trusting bermuda courts in reality of what we control it's 69 times lower so i started diving into this and then all of a sudden tom forensic accountant went on um the eisman podcast and i was like holy this is worse than i thought so it took a fire and made it into an inferno and i start just really diving in because i got i got business i got a bunch of stuff and i'm like okay i'm gonna focus on this make sure this gets out then tom started saying hey you know i really appreciated what you wrote up in the letter to johnson and it's actually so much worse than he thought and at that point i was like no i can't do any worse i can't do any worse but we we've been

diving into it and people have got to understand uh look up tom um uh what's his twitter i don't think he has a twitter last name's gober though g-o-b-e-r yeah yeah uh tom gober you can look him up online he's got um journalists uh that have covered him but journalists write everything like super melt toasty you know and i'm i'm a sub stack author i got no sponsor i'm like ah this is driving me insane i'm i'm gonna say exactly how i feel about it and then actually tone it down because what i really want to say um would probably get me sued well i mean i think to uh to like paint the clear picture for anybody listening out there i mean so i i caught that episode between steve eisman and tom gober so tom gober as you mentioned forensic accountant

um out of mississippi he's been cited many times been part of fbi trials doing forensic accountant uh uncovering fraud he was on steve eisman's podcast steve eisman the guy from the great financial crisis steve carell played him in the big short uh and the thing that caught my attention in that episode and something that you've been saying what you alluded to in the open is that everybody's focused on private credit looking at what's happening with blue owl all these different funds um basically gating redemptions and they're saying oh this is this is the big problem but i think what tom and steve discuss and how you describe it as private credit shifts the fuse the big bomb is the insurance underlying it and what tom really highlighted on the eisman podcast

what you've been writing about is a lot of these private equity companies have acquired life insurance uh companies basically trying to replicate the warren buffett style of investing and they've been rolling a lot of those premiums into relatively risky illiquid investments that have put those policies in a bad position that a correct characterization right that's a great start you know they took the warren buffett playbook makes sense you get an insurance balance sheet and you start taking a little bit of risk you not get outsized returns it can work well for policyholders and shareholders warren buffett himself everyone's happy they took the warren buffett playbook and said let's make it evil and so how how did this happen because and

i think another um important detail to mention which you've covered at length is really the reason that i think you feel confident in your analysis and why tom felt comfortable um coming forward on steve eisman's podcast is because there was a mistake made in terms of disclosure of um a shell company's financials by brookfield which is a large private equity company right and you know anytime any of that has ever been gone into the courts it takes a a while for anyone to go into the courts about things, it's been found to be fraud. So they're creating an asset, an XOL asset. You could think of it as a put, right? A put against your assets. Because just to overview, annuity and lies,

their biggest risk is their balance sheet. They know the liabilities they're going to have to pay out. They do some crazy actuary math to make it look like it's less because they say people won't pay. You know, they have huge assumptions built into the IRR. So they have a small reserve. You know, I'm looking at Hanover reinsurance at $60 billion against $1.1 trillion. So I don't know what their math is, but if it was a 30-year duration with no runoff, that's a 10% CAGR, a little bit over a 10% CAGR. So then you say, okay, we'll take some runoff for, you know but but the the idea it expands significantly so i have a problem with it to begin with and i want to question the actuary math but then we look at brooksfield that acquires

this insurance company puts an asset saying this is the value of our put and it's not the premium that they paid it is the entire value of the contract right so then hanover supposedly selling naked put not a cash secured put but something that they put a little bit of reserve you know a little bit of a margin requirement they don't have all the money when you look at what brookfield through ael american equity has done is they've actually made the strike of that put below zero because zero is when it goes into receivership and the way we know that is because because they posted it. They weren't supposed to their tech team. Journalists have covered this made a mistake. They didn't know that once you get a captive insurance, it's all this, you know,

it's this gimmick, right? You don't need to talk about it anymore. There's a reason why that was legitimate to begin with, you know, reinsurance in general, the overarching view of it, spreading out risk is reasonable as a first principle. But then you go to Hanover, they have zero reserve, they expect to pay zero. So matching that, as Tom Gobert did, he found that this one contract is clearly invalid. That would take AEL1 into negative equity by lots. It would go from 75 to 1.3 75 million positive to 1.3 billion negative there's three of those and that is a window into what is happening in this reinsurance space so that they can book assets so they're not insolvent take more risk and you know it's it's a really dangerous thing even more so because

is seven companies are backing up the 680 so reinsurance really is again you take risk and you're supposed to spread it out but they're concentrating it in these seven companies and over is only the third largest and so taking a step back and trying to like really paint the picture for anybody who's not well versed on the interplay between just insurance companies reinsurance companies and then adding the private equity players to the equation and then on top of that these captive entities um and so just sort of defining the entity actors in this uh fraud as i think um there are some of these instances may be fraud i think uh tom felt comfortable saying if you ever see something like this, most likely is fraud. But just for people who are

hearing us say Brooksfield, Hanover, AEL, like how are these entities related and how do they play with each other? So Brookfield is a trillion dollar Canadian asset manager that tried to do a dance to get into the S&P 500 so they would get passive money. S&P said no, but they are an alternative asset manager. They do private equity. They do infrastructure, you know, private equity. They have a huge section of infrastructure, which is probably their best business besides the green stuff. Then they have private credit as well that they've been pushing into. They've recent also a lot of CRE and they keep on walking away from CRE deals. And that's sorry, excuse me, commercial real estate. I hate using the acronyms and people are like,

what is it? I hate that. You have to learn it. And then all of a sudden you start using them and it's really obnoxious. Um, so commercial real estate, you know, office space. So they have this massive balance sheet, trillion dollars, but they want more. All of these guys want more and more. So they'll buy an insurer that has a balance sheet and they immediately become the asset manager then they strip the insurance company as much as they can in order to maximize returns in every single which way and really you know these guys are buying wealth advisor like however they can get assets they will get assets and when it comes to the insurance company becoming their um their asset manager essentially

they'll buy an insurance company an insurance company just in its day-to-day operations they have to match liabilities long-term duration um sort of products whether it's fixed income equities whatever it may be uh and they're buying the insurer saying all right your asset management strategy that you've had up to this point is done we're going to take over and then that i would imagine introduces some uh perverse incentives moral hazard where they're then able to push those funds that need to be managed into products that they already control. For sure. Yeah. They immediately become the asset manager. They immediately get the management fee. The management fee very quickly pays for the entire purchase. Obviously, you know,

the treasuries and investment grade corporate bonds and the mortgages that they used to be into, they don't get paid for that. So they start pushing them into private debt. And this is where things get hairy, because at the end of the day, the pensioner, the individual couple buying whole life insurance policy or an annuity are none the wiser. You have people paying premiums on life insurance policies, on annuity policies, expecting that when they get to retire or, God forbid, pass away, that they'll be paid out in whole. um but the way that this scheme has been devised and architected it's becoming clear going back to brooksfield's um fumble by showing the um the uh balance sheet of the uh keep forgetting the name the uh the entity that they control the sub entity a uh american equity american equity um basically zeroed out and they were sending the assets on their balance sheet to

reinsure um we're doing an xol purchase with a reinsurer basically saying we're diversifying our risk and they're positioning it as a hedge on some of their other investments but hanover basically if you look at their balance sheet it says they don't expect to pay anything back hanover has 775 million dollars of capital in their u.s entity then they have you know it's It's a German reinsurer, but the German reinsurer, we're only talking about the U.S. entity. We have no idea how much reinsurance they're doing in Europe. They're also big in shipping during the Iran war. Like these guys are just, you know, saying, oh, we got all you guys.

Don't worry about it. Don't worry about it. Meanwhile, you look at their balance sheet. And even if one of these contracts go under the 231 companies that they're supposedly backstopping, go under. So no matter which way you look at this, like there's so many ways for it to break that me as a guy that, you know, thinks the stock market goes up over time is really bullish on AI.

I'm like, this is a bomb. This is, you know, we are lucky if the whole is just, you know, a trillion dollars, right? because there's more components that we'll get into, but you know, it's, it's scary. And, and, and, you know, I'm, I'm coming on here and I'm like, how do I communicate this effectively? You've seen me on YouTube. I'm like either just ranting and raving, or I go on, you know, Josh Brown's podcast and people are like, this guy's too expressive. And I'm like, how do I be expressive and serious at the same time? So people actually listen to me. I'm trying to think of the communication. You know, I'm writing furiously. I'm using, you know, throwing out

these Excel spreadsheets and sending it to whoever's email I can think of because it just takes a modicum of understanding before you go, well, this kid might be crazy, but I think we should probably look into this. And the amount of complacency built up because, you know, the Fed always bails us out. It's like the annuity and life balance sheet is bigger than the Federal Reserve's. OK, that bailout is not something you just do like Silicon Valley Bank and the world moves on. So freaks, guess what? Just booked my tickets to Vegas headed for Bitcoin 2026. It's that time of the year, April 27th to 29th in Las Vegas. I'm going to be there. A ton of people are going to be there. You better get your ass there. You know what? People are calling

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It's massive. And I think, again, like I said, having consumed a ton of your content with written and uh the youtubes uh videos that you've made over the last couple weeks i think uh pulling this out of you let's highlight where the smoke is again brooksfield releasing that balance sheet balance sheet of that um that captive entity smoking gun number one regulators come into state regulators come into it this is where tom's bread and butter is is working at the state level to do forensic accountants there's something going on in vermont in terms of what

they're allowing these private equity funds to do in terms of the leverage they're taking within these insurance companies and then i think the other area where smoke can be rising is the fact that you have these offshore entities particularly in the caymans and bermuda where it's a lot of black box and then there's also this legal um wall between those entities in the u.s right so it's sort of like a it's a spider web there's you know the captive insurers that are supposed to be invisible why are they supposed to be invisible because someone in vermont said that it's supposed to be invisible even to subpoena that is really i just want to pause for a second if there's a court subpoena they don't have to turn it over according to

Vermont. Federal rules say that's not allowed. Vermont says, you know what, you can do it. So every other commissioner, you know, there's a couple, a few states that do that, but let's say of all provinces, there's 53 commissioners that are silent while other states do this. That is a huge, huge issue. If you just opened up that black box, I think it would all be over, right so maybe that's the angle that you know this all becomes unveiled you know the american the captive insurer in vermont that is going to find one of these seven reinsurers but at the same time you have apollo going straight to athene in offshore in the bermudas so then this all ends up offshore where supposedly there's two trillion

dollars back, stopping everything. And what you see is every single thing we see, there's not enough capital to back this up. And then we're just supposed to trust when it's invisible in Bermuda that it's all there. And that's where it gets really scary because that's not under our jurisdiction. We are trusting the Bermuda and Bermuda's courts to protect Americans. while they get paid and their economy booms from all the premiums that are sent there. So, you know, there's, there's also the angle of it. Once it goes there and it could be sent elsewhere, then it could be sent right back to the U S. So it's a giant chain of people selling naked, you know, options, naked puts, and then they don't like they don't want, once they buy

the put they'll put the full value of the put and the premium goes the next person will sell the premium put the whole value of of the of the the put and it's it's it's a chain where once we go to the end you know i'm very confident saying it's going to be worse than tarp which was 450 billion at the end of the day yeah and so people are basically re-hypothecating assets and marking them on their own balance sheets it's like we've seen this before right everyone's saying oh but this is different because it's not central to the collateralization and there's not cdo squared and it's like we might be talking in slightly different vehicles and slightly different mechanisms the idea is exactly the same the

the dodd frank only took it out of the banking system but if you have a credit event that's that's going to end up affecting the banks, but it's not going to be primary, right? You're going to see all of these credit places as people look for liquidity. There's a lot of leverage built into the system. It's all going to come down with a bigger hole than the global financial crisis. And when that all happens, you know, I've heard really smart people say like, listen, the deficit is $2 trillion. You know, 500 billion is one quarter of deficit. We can cover it. no big deal. But this is all built on trust. The entire system is built on trust. We have treasuries that are rehypothecated that the Saudis are using to lever up into our equities

through hedge funds. We have mortgages. The mortgages are still rehypothecated. We have ABLs. A lot of that is subprime loans. That's the scariest part there. We have commercial reals. all of this debt is based on an M2 of $22 trillion. But supposedly out there, we have $1,500 trillion of wealth. So people are doing the wrong math. They're like, the deficit is this. And that's just the hose. But it's not adequate to only... If you lose trust in a $1,500 trillion system, there's nothing the Fed can do. and that's where it gets really scary yeah and that i mean and again i don't even think we have to go as far as to like highlight and let's say we're speculate but like i think the

sort of low-hanging fruit thinking from first principles understanding why this could end badly it's just getting back to what is the collateral like what is underlying the potential payouts of these insurance policies if they're ever claimed in the future and again if you're a private equity company acquiring insurer becoming its asset manager and then pumping it into relatively illiquid private equity deals whether that's in commercial real estate or tech that's becoming abundantly clear that both those sectors specifically are under stress and the idea that the assets being held on the balance sheets of these insurers if they're in these private credit or private equity vehicles are going to be the cash flow the the fixed income of those

those sort of collateral assets that are there to pay off um payouts in the future when people claim their policies that that seems very obvious to me that that can be impaired right now yeah without any rehypothecation or anything right i just mean to do that so that people don't just like write it off as like, you know, old news. It needs to be put in perspective of the entire system when it comes to what the trigger is. It's private credit. Right. And the insurance companies will say, well, we only have 10 percent or 8 percent or a theme will say 15 percent exposure to this private debt. But the thing is that that is for a theme, you know, they have $4 billion of capital that is in reserve. So it's not, when you have assets and

you have liability, the difference, you know, in accounting sense is equity or capital surplus. The percentage of private debt to completely wipe out the capital surplus, I mean, just on the average, and some are way worse, as you can imagine, private equity guys have the incentive to do that. It's 8% versus 6.5%. And obviously, you know, I don't know if people, you know, your, your listeners understand, you know, what happened with Silicon Valley bank, but yeah, these guys definitely have duration and treasuries and mortgages that they never acknowledged because they just old to maturity. And they think that it's all fine because these are long duration assets. But once this starts being paid attention to, you're going to see

people surrender their annuity, get their money back. So that could be, you know, everything's going to happen at the same time. You're going to have the assets need to go down. They will be forced to go down. Then people are going to get scared because they bought into security for their family and themselves in retirement. And they're going to get their money back. They're going to be like, I don't need that four and a half, 5% yield. I need the money. Right. And at the same time, because of the assets going down, you're going to have downgrades. And when you have a downgrade, your triple B rated stuff that they, that everyone says that they have has a dollar $1.40 in reserve for every $100. That is, you can go 70 times levered on that, right?

And triple B in private debt is what single B would be in the public markets. It wouldn't be investment grade, but they call it investment grade because they have these rating agencies that they just pay money to do that. So once that downgrade happens, you're going to see the regulators say, you need to post $5, $10, $15 billion of capital, which they don't have. All of this is going to happen at the same time. People are going to get scared. Credit events don't happen in a silo. So then because we're not being proactive, because we're never proactive, the damage is going to be worse. So that's why I'm saying, bring some attention. Regulators, what are you doing?

Yeah. And there's, there's another thing here too, that I think it's important to touch on, explain to people, which is how a lot of these assets are marked, right? It's not like they're, they're not in public vehicles until there's not quarterly, um, uh, filing requirements. There's, there's, you're not being marked to market by people trading your, um, your securities on, on, um, on a free floating book. the managers of these private equity funds, private credit funds get to mark their investments pretty liberally? Yeah, I mean, in some cases, there's literally a public market price and they just choose not to use it. You know, the idea that this is all mark to model because there's no market price, sometimes they choose to ignore the market price and say, nope, My Excel spreadsheet says 99.7 cents, but what, uh, what's an example of this? Um, in Cliffwater, I found a few, um, it's the, especially the B, uh, B, the, the broadly syndicated loans where you might have a public company in there, right?

So Blackstone does some broadly syndicated stuff, Dropbox, you know, I think Dropbox is probably one of the better software companies in the public markets. But when they loan to Dropbox, you can see the Dropbox bonds trade pretty liquid, and yet they're not marking them down on par with that. So there's, I mean, we're talking about 400 businesses in B-CRED. We're talking about 2,700, you know, little slices, and it's not so little slices, but in Cliffwater, CCLFX. um but generally speaking like you know off the top of my head there's this sleep doctor url and cliffwaters um one of their their loans and cliffwater marks 93 of their book on par or within a cent apart and i look at this one and i'm like cliffwater you actually marked this one

at $0.42. But then I'm taking Claude and I'm running five years of annual reports through and I'm mapping out the price changes for any of these bonds. And of course, most of them are pinned towards par. This one goes down to $0.35 and up to $0.42. And obviously, I have to look into it. So I'm like, what is Sleep Doctor URL? Give me all the information you got on it, Claude. and it is something that is completely eliminated by google search like there's you know just on cliffwater's book and remember these are syndicated cliffwater doesn't own 100 of any bond but there was a hundred million dollars of debt on this on a url on a website that sent you by the way you need sleep number you need magic mattress factory there's no way that's worth

42 cents of whatever $400 million in debt that there was on it. So they actually marked it up from 35 to 42. And I'm like, this might be worth... This is probably worth zero after all the court costs. And I'm just like, oh my God. Okay. We always hear there's going to be some defaults. Of course, it's a large portfolio. It's diversified. There's going to be some. But I look at the worst marks and I'm like, how is this even still a value? And what you have to understand is that 42 cents, that was 100 million. Now it's 42 million. I don't know the actual might have been 70 million to whatever, but they're collecting

a management fee on that, right? They're not getting paid any cash. It's a clear default and they're still taking 1%. So they're eating into the principle of of that essentially so so obviously that the nav is too high but the nav is getting more and more too high each year because of the fee because they're taking cash for a management fee for a value that is insane and that's just one loan right when you go through all of this you see you know we'd be lucky if these things are only off 15 cents because they all use leverage

right so that's the that's that's the problems people seem to have a good grasp of right and i wrote my first piece called these people are not investors they're deal makers they're just they're trying to just allocate they're trying to put money to work they're allergic to cash drag because that hurts returns and cash drag is just like if you have any cash in there it's only getting four percent while everything else is getting more cash is like your ability to have liquidity. You should have a little bit. You should have at least 5% for one quarter and then be able to... But instead, not only do they have no cash, but they have billions and billions of dollars of contracts that they go, okay, we'll give you 150 or maybe $400 million. You can call

it whenever you want, but you have to send us $7 to $10 million right now. So then they use that $7 million to $10 million to pretend like there's a little cash pile and potentially even go out and lend more loans. And they say they have liquidity. That's totally fine. So that picture is what starts this. And we already talked about where it ends. And people do not seem to have the ability to connect the two, right? Because there's a trillion dollars of this private debt on insurance balance sheets. There's 670 in pension fund balance sheets. The rest is high net worth individuals nobody's going to cry about. But this is something that's going to affect everyone. Sup freaks? Up next, the Bitcoin Scaling Conference, where Bitcoin developers meet

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for a long time and it took longer than expected to play out and the banks eventually noticed what was going on and made sure they got themselves on side before letting everything fall apart like where where do you see ourselves now if this is going to play out where are we in the story arc uh mathematically within four quarters of bdcs and interval funds because these are pro-cyclical redemptions are growing it's not going to stop there's only so much dry powder that's you know for me there could be um stealth bailouts of some sort there could be people trying you know like on the private side like let's just give cliff water some money because if we don't the the jig is up. I'm worried that people are loading up the silverware and getting on the

lifeboats, right? So what's different between 2007 and today is social media. What every single person I've talked to says, this is going to take longer than you think. I've read the books. They live the experience, right? That it takes longer than you think. I'm acknowledging that's And every single person has told me that. However, we could rip the entire cover off of this by looking behind the reinsurance, right? If there was one single commission, we could limit damage by maybe 50%. So it's up to the populace to decide how unruly they will be about this issue. That's the variable that would change the four quarks.

Four quarters, you know, as we're going into an election season, what I'm trying to, you know, think about is like, what is the competitive dynamic? Both parties are backed by lobbyists, but both parties have people that want to win. And at a certain point in time, you can't cover. Right. You can't cover. So Democrats, if you want to reach out, happy to reach out. Republicans, if you want to reach out, I'm happy to discuss this. This is completely too far from partisanship for me. right so you know i i hope to shorten that timeline and minimize the damage just by being incredibly loud bringing this back to the first place so we're talking about like insurers private

equity funds but like you said like if the dominoes begin to fall in the way which you you imagine they will potentially can like 29 of the largest 29 out of 30 of the largest life insurance companies could be in trouble like just trying to help people grasp the gravity of this with with some um brand names they may recognize or understand like hey i've got a annuity policy with them a life insurance policy with them right so if if you have an annuity or life insurance policy first of all i want to speak to those people you know it's better in a mutual than a publicly traded insurance company or a PE backed insurance company. Just, you know, let's give that, you know, playbook. I have a lot of assumptions

in my article, the whole, and what I try to do is say, let's look at this scenario. Let's look at this scenario. Let's look at this scenario. The entire thing is backed up by reinsurance that we cannot just trust. You don't have to agree with everything that I'm saying, but I think everyone should agree that there should be transparency. And my opinion is that once we look into it, it's all going to be extremely obvious. Anyone that opposes looking into it has gravy in the train, right? There's no reason we shouldn't at least look at this, right? So you have Apollo, they might be the worst, but then you have Prudential, you have met life right these are lincoln national is a big company these are the met

life building in new york i think it's going to change its name sorry i was on mute i was saying really because that's iconic right there right people can't imagine and people can't imagine lehman brothers going down they couldn't imagine aig having any issues they couldn't imagine solomon brothers going down right these are iconic names so let's steal madness right because this is like consuming your content and watching others talk about this problem it's like hard for me to believe that people in the seats that are deploying the capital in this way cannot see this freight trade coming or could not foresee these problems arising when they're taking bets like this like what do you think

the mindset of these insurers and these private equity fund managers is just aum at all costs fees at all costs everybody else be damned or do you think there's a fainting for legitimacy i estimate that there's a trillion dollars in fees extracted from the system every single year between private equity private credit and the insurance and we're not just talking about management fees and incentive fees we're talking about this is the highest margin in businesses for banks the lawyers the auditors the ratings agencies the actuaries it is enormous right so people want to pretend like there's nothing the issue you know people like i've been getting a a lot of references for, for the movie margin call. Right. And it just, this, this happens

all the time. They, there, there's a specific scene in there where he's going through all the times that this has happened. And it's just like, we just react, you know? And I think that there would be the industry would, would go back and they would say, you know, like this is dramatic and he's pointing to Hollywood movies and this and that. But I tried to see him in the article in there. Do you want to pull it up? This is a long read, by the way. I know I got, I got to leave it there.

And then I try to make it bite size. And, you know, if people listen to all of this podcast, I think that they'll be, you know, they have the attention, they, they pass the test. The first one, the actual asset, they're going to be like the puts legitimate. And what I would say is one, what is the strike? Is it negative five dollars? Because then that's not legitimate. By the way, this fails the NAIC's own test. It cannot be contingent on an event. So just in an accounting sense, it's invalid. But then when you go to the reinsurers, where's the capital? OK, you got five point three billion

dollars reliant there. Where's the capital? They have seven hundred and seventy five million. okay and surplus so then what are you what are you saying they're gonna sell their balance sheet assets in order to pay for this okay how many times can they do that right they don't have any it's not a liability on there for hanover um and you can just think about it this way it's like why would hanover take all all of the risk of the balance sheet for 70.7 percent of the value of the contract because the premium is so low you know it's just pay to pretend so really i would say hammer in on the reinsurance there the second steel man is captives are adequately supervised by vermont or iowa and in reality they've they can't even see

what's in the Bermudas, right? So it doesn't make any sense. It's like, okay, they look at a reinsurance contract. They can't see what's backing it up. They've made it impossible to do so. And I like this line, the best defense for moving a trillion dollars offshore is that you did not want to pay taxes on it, right? If that's why you say tax optimization and the industry says tax optimization well that's your best reason right well is there not nothing again steel mailing this further like there's nothing these insurers and reinsurers can do when interacting with bermuda to like on the diligence process to like check their books to get confidence that they'll be backed up sufficiently they give you an eight-page document versus a theans

that they actually show in iowa is 9 600 pages so essentially no they can't actually see they can see the asset liability equity consolidated they can't see yeah it's a trust me bro yeah yeah it's like i'm gonna write down a number on a piece of paper and uh bermuda signed off on it and trust me bro lovely um and then third affiliate reinsurance is disclosed on the schedule s regulators can see it why so you converted this to bitcoin oh i have a yeah i've line coded a an extension that converts everything to bitcoin the first time i saw that i was like i just didn't mentally process that i love that um yeah so what we can see is hardly if not completely not backed by assets

when everything we see liabilities are greater than assets so uh i don't like it like let's just You know, if the fact that it's disclosed, the Hanover has the contract does not make me confident. Yeah, and there's a I forget who it was, I forget it was KKR Apollo used as an example, but. The way these captives work, the people buying policies from these captives, I don't know how it works exactly, but long story short. people are led to believe that the parent company is backstopping one of these entities and then they will pull from their balance sheet if the captive entity ever finds a hole but if you dig into the legal lease of the parent company that doesn't exist is that correct right right exactly so when apollo is you know pushing for the athene acquisition to be completely captive

they're saying we're responsible for this there's a financial times article about this That's why it's aligned interests. It's not a moral hazard or anything like that. But then when you actually go into the docs, it says it's non-recourse. And when they go to investors, they say, guys, guys, nothing's going to happen. There's no issue. You don't need to worry about anything. And by the way, it's not even recourse. What are you talking about? We an 11 forward pe buyer stock so you think these these large p firms are about to be humbled they're about to be humbled you think they'll be humbled are we gonna get again yes yeah they're about to find out how um recourse or not recourse it is

And they're either going to pay a healthy fine just to be like, stop, or they are potentially going to be, you know, all those bonds, all that equity completely wiped. And they're so powerful that I would think it's pay a fine route, but they're not central. So again, this is Lehman, Bear Stearns. It's like, you can't imagine Apollo going away. Right. But it's, you know, who's going to cry for Leon Black's equity in Apollo, right? So then the question is, do they have Apollo take the charge?

What about KKR? What about, you know, all of these companies? And in reality, some are going to survive and some are going to fail. The idea that you just buy them because they're at, you know, at 11 forward PE, investors are about to learn. They're about to learn a tough lesson. You know, they got their golden parachutes ready set up. If you're buying those stocks right now, we'll see.

And what's going to happen to the pensioner, the person holding these policies? I don't care too much about the pensions, to be honest, because the pensions don't care about the next generation. They only care about the people that they got. But having said that, they're going to have funding issues. You know, they've crept up payments. They've crept up benefits in the assumption that these private market games are going to play out forever. It's the same allocations that happened in 2007. Right.

And they're going to have to take a loss. And, you know, maybe we bail them out. Maybe we don't. i'm full in front of the narratives that we have to or it's an existential issue for middle america this is a game played by the rich 100 to benefit the rich to the tune of a trillion dollars in extraction per year yeah and it's i mean does this get back to glass deagle do you think because where i remember glass deagle i mean well what was it the act that abolished glass deagle between

city and travelers court that there was a delineation between insurance and commercial banking and funds that clinton took away in the early 2000s or late 1990s um and it seems like more of the same like that's the other thing like where are the risk managers inside the insurance companies that should understand like hey even though we've been acquired by this private equity fund the way they're managing our assets is completely um irresponsible it will lead to a blow up at some point like is there any is there any uh where are the good men in insurance standing up against us they are they're in my dms uh the the ones you're talking about private school is 75 grand a year these days

They got into the right private school. They got into the country clubs. The pill that they give, right, without too much looking into, without reading the footnotes, without reading the 9,600-page filings, without being Tom Gober, you can say, okay. But they're not doing their job. fiduciary irresponsibility and in the most favorable way to say it yeah what uh what are the first signs that you're looking for to to have more confidence that this is underway like obviously you have private equity funds gating redemptions right now across the board is that the first sign um is there a dominant fall that's the most obvious and then

you know um that yeah redemptions downgrades but also which politician's gonna say anything because once you see that it's like okay maybe they're losing control do you think the politicians will say anything again midterms so you think it'll be likely uh expedient to to hop on this early and beat the door for the trump administration to fall on the sword i think it's it's hard to imagine um going into the midterms unless they just throw in the towel the problem is that all those billionaires are right behind the trump administration and i voted for trump okay much as you know put my you know going into this bias out there the democrats I have higher hope for because I'm like, wait a minute. We're going to win the House, maybe the

Senate. Let's put this issue so we can be the saviors. Now, they're also backed by lobbyists. But if you see Elizabeth Warren all of a sudden start talking about it or whoever, maybe it's somebody young, hopefully it's somebody young that starts talking about this. I think that is a narrative that people are going to uh write off as it's just another politician but i think that's a huge indicator yeah so you view this as a generational battle hundred percent that's why i title everything is no no more boomer communism because the the the extraction you know is complete and it's going to it's going to continue that's not going into the hands of you know the It's 30-year-old who just got a girlfriend because he hasn't been able to date.

And, you know, he's trying to buy a house. He can't buy a house. He's trying to start a family. He can't start a family. Like, that's who I care about, right? So you're going to see a lot of pensioners, you know, the people close to retirement say, we got to hold up the market. We got to do this.

We got to bail out the system when it happens. And I'm going to be sitting there saying, well, all that money you have is fake. all of that wealth you have is fake okay how about we let you realize that for a little bit yeah no it's uh i mean as i know where i fall i was born in 91 mid-30s now i guess officially you're a millennial i know i'm a millennial i don't know if i'm a younger millennial or a middle middle of the road millennial no that's i mean that's that's what radicalized me i was a senior in high school when i way it happened 9 11 when i was 10 forever wars bullshit with covid um i think guys our age it is this

weird inflection point we find ourselves in where i mean the prospects are not good at all for most people and particularly if you're younger uh and then you have this refusal of a generational passing of the baton from the boomers to the millennials who are we're in our prime earning years we're supposed to be starting families we're supposed to be building the next generation uh of americans and that's been completely uh railroaded by what seems to be and again there's many boomers that listen to the show there are there are many uh well intended boomers out there but i think collectively just societally in that generation i think it's objective in uh just the way markets operate and all these perverse incentives who's describing here like it it is leaving

the world in a worse spot than it was when when they got it handed to them and my whole perspective is like just pass the baton let us try and pick up the pieces that's why i focus on bitcoin i think bitcoin is a is a way to sort of route around the system that's been erected around us um but yeah it is and i worry about the blowback too um i don't think many many people in the older generations i think they're have a bit of cognitive dissonance when it comes to understanding just how pissed off younger millennials and more more i think aggressively gen z is right now yeah are you a fascist or a communist probably no okay if you're not um you should be scared right because those are the only two excited parties about what's happening you

you know, with the political charge right now, okay? You know, this is the amount of disaster in the system, bullish for Bitcoin. Let me tell you, I would sacrifice Bitcoin in a second to have a financial system that's even, you know, remotely functioning at a level where there's class mobility and, you know, there's ability to start families, right? so um i don't think yeah i think there's a lot of cognitive dissonance i mean obviously you know i joke i'm racist against boomers you know i boomers are my mentors you know a lot of them but at a certain point in time it's like you guys have blocked out gen x they're never going to get

a president right we're getting to to the time where you know we're not being excluded from the adult table anymore this is this is ridiculous right you know um the the experience the wisdom the pejorative nature of a lot of these conversations where you need to be 45 in order to be able to say anything you know everyone's already made it or not by 45 and if you haven't made it you nobody can listen to you because you've been making up money and if you did make it you're already in the country club right like it just doesn't make any sense. And, and I think people think the things, the ways, the way it's gone for the past 40 years is the way it's always going to go. And quite frankly, you know, I think you just have to

open up a history book like this, this is not the way it's always going to be. And that's, that's scary or that's, you know, exciting. And what, um, I hope for is that people are excited, not because they're a fascist or a communist, but because the narrative, the weakness in their structure is so apparent, but it's going to take some logic and reason, you know, in order to fix this. And like you said, you know, I was six years old when 9-11 happened. I remember seeing the towers go down. I was living in New York City, turning on Nickelodeon, turning on R2 Networks, and it's

just the towers, the towers, the towers, every single channel. And I'm like, what is this? I'm six. Okay. And then by the time I'm, you know, eight years old, I'm like, go Bush, go get him. You know, I was the most pro-war eight-year-old of all time, right? And it's an experience that boomers cannot relate to because, sure, they might have had the Vietnam War, but they walked into the best infrastructure, the best economy as a large generation with the baton being handed to them. Like, go have fun, kids, right?

And now the Overton window of conversation has gotten so tight and so small on country club, you know, boundaries for finance. And also, as they've grown up in society, we've noticed that we have to grow up with them, right? It almost seems like because they're such a big generation and they have so much power, we have to speak like we're 65 years old, right? And, you know, I think that's very soon to taking as, you know, vigorous individuals have more rapidly firing neurons. And quite frankly, you know, the narrative is tired. It's kind of like the need to cancel culture, you know, the aspects of that. The reason we got that was because boomers were behaving inappropriately. If we're honest, not all boomers, but then all of a sudden that's hurting the millennials.

and it's like what what is going on i can't be a man right so as as as the testosterone has gone down for the boomers testosterone's been demonized and it's like okay these guys are not not prepared you know markets are a contact sport let's get back to that stock ideas yeah i mean on that Like, what do you, what would your hope be for the other side of a crisis if it manifests? And like, what would an orderly handing of the baton look like? What, what interests you? Like, how do you think we used the technologies at our fingertips and the knowledge that we have to build a better system? We need to wipe the wealth, right?

we need to let it go back down to reality. Again, the total M2 in the world, China actually has a lot, but it's somewhere in the neighborhood of $90 trillion. There's so much debt that needs to deliver through just debt being written off. And that needs to happen across sectors. Equity prices because of earnings and multiple compression need to go down 40, 50% at least. And then did we build from the ashes? Like that's, that's, that's what, that's what I'm hoping for. Because when 55 and up on 74% of the wealth in the country, and it's similar elsewhere in the world and Europe as well, they have this issue on their hangry as well. You know, I would say if you're less than 10 years from retirement, we can take a couple of bad years. Okay. We can do

it. You know, you might lose your job, but at the same time, when you get a new job, you're going to be buying blue chin companies for 11 12 times earnings that are growing and spectacular you're going to be able to get a home for at least 25 percent less in over two years when it's typically been going up four percent five percent per year like the economics needs to change because then we can have actual capitalism again and not this boomer communism yeah that's the one thing i think the whole boogeyman of a of a true market correction is just that a boogeyman i mean it is can be fear-inducing for people and say like i can't take a 40 to 50 percent haircut on my portfolio um i'll never recover but i think you need this

sort of controlled burn cleansing mechanism people are very let the boomers sell right when they get scared, it's going to hurt us. But just imagine how much more it would hurt if you're in retirement and you've been over levered to equities, even though every, you know, sort of financial intelligence would say you shouldn't have that much in retirement when all these boomers have two point five million dollar homes. Right. Let that come down. Let them sell. They have to move to Florida. OK, you sell one point four and you buy, you know, trailer park. Sorry. well i've been a big uh big proponent of multi-generational housing you know if you're millennial can buy a house you know i mean get an extra room invite your boomer parents in to uh

take care of the kids for you yeah seriously well you you want you want um you want a retirement home okay you take care of the kids now and and then and then you know additionally like we got to change the the tax system and do all that if we can clear the deck if, you know, a lot of these policies that have been put in and they're just incredible, you know, we got AI, we got so many things, we could have new leadership. We have social media where ideas can actually be battled as long as the power isn't too tight. And then, you know, for the boomers listening to this, as well as, you know, the super influential, you know, very rich, you know already made it like you guys are fine right you guys won't be fine if you continue to

pretend like you can do this right if you guys hate me okay there's a hundred times worse version of me right that's that's what you should be worried about right yeah how did um how did you come to be this way for lack of a better uh phrasing there yeah yeah a lot of rejection i mean from eight ten years old i always wanted to like talk about stocks and you know for for a really long while it was a lot of learning it's like okay by the time i'm 16 i'm like you know kid analyst you know like i have ideas and i want to be listened to then all of a sudden like I'm, I'm, I'm getting, I'm growing up, growing up and I'm not being listened to anymore, even though I've acquired more, you know, knowledge and insight and, you know, I'm in

college, Trump gets elected. I'm like, oh my God, what is this? You know, I'm just like continuing to go and acquire, you know, more and more knowledge. And it's partially personality type. I also was drinking a lot. I'm now sober. Like there's definitely parts on me, but there's, you know, um, there's been this rejection of what i feel like and sort of this you know nobody is listening to me i don't see

an entrance to utilize all of this knowledge that you know quite frankly if you're a pianist and you're and you're 10 years old and you got talent you recognized but it just felt like to me in the 80s you had to show up on wall street with a good attitude and you became a millionaire right you had to show up with a good attitude, become a millionaire. They knew nothing walking into those stores. Right. And then when in my twenties, you know, I'm interviewing, everyone says that they want, you know, somebody who thinks outside the box, whatever, you know, and I don't get the job. I don't get the job. I don't get the job. And I'm seeing the people that do get the job and they're like copy paste. Right. So that's, that's been, you know, probably the driving,

driving force for me where it's like you know finally i have success and people listen and it's it's it's all great but listen those years did not not shape me you know and from when i when i wrote the entire um letter to besant we're all human you know these guys inside the system why are they doing it because that's what the system expects from them and because they are shaped you're shaped by the institutions that they're inside of i am shaped by the institutions i've been outside of right there's there's not i'm not trying to demonize people but i need to tell them when they're stupid that's sort of my perspective yeah i mean since you mentioned it what uh what exactly did you say to secretary besant a letter to secretary besant i'm talking

about the incentive structure. I'm talking about, you know, I go high level, why this is happening, how this is similar, how this entire industry marks the market, then give sort of micro specific examples, talking about cliff water, better sharp ratio than Bernie Madoff, who chose his sharp ratio, right? Like Bernie Madoff could have chosen any sharp ratio. He chose 3.5. Cliff what is 3.75 and you know and then i'm talking about the individual loans the sleep number and then bringing it home with ask which is just basically like address the mark to a model risk you know he's already said comments like you know we don't want this to end up the junk to end up on 401k's balance sheet but you know launch an investigation oversee the regulators you know

pay attention to this i went to johnson on insurance and then the whole with tom grober being a forensic accountant like what what how surgical can we get on the issue here and allow people to go where they want on what is the biggest issue that they want but take away holy we've got to look at this because if this kid is even 10 right we have a major problem yeah and it's just another another problem on a heap of problems that we have right now which is that it's like my observation again i've been following markets since i was in high school and uh and it just feels like the gravity and the the pace at which things you have like hiccups in the system are increasing like 08 european banking crisis

and you have spasm of 2019 obviously all the stimulus we're in the covet era you know the banking crisis is 2023 and here we are three years later another liquidity spasm this time in private equity private credit just feels like the system is faltering and collapsing in its own weight right and every time that there's a spasm and there's a mini panic and it's not oh wait people get more and more confident in the power of the federal reserve and the only reason i'm trying to compare things is like they will blast bazooka wealth at the margin. Do you know who also did that? The Bank of Japan. And they had a lost decade, two lost decades, right? So what we're seeing is so much money and no velocity of money. That's why they have to do more and more and more.

And what it's doing is just jacking up asset prices. And we're seeing the top 10% do so well and spending goes up and gdp numbers go up that is not health that is absolutely not health and um yeah you're it's like a crisis every year you know we get a six sigma event every year and people still want to talk about value at risk you know and it's like all these shit guys what uh what's your recommendation for anybody our age or your age and my age listening to this go whatever article you like you know you want to look into insurance you know the private markets take ai and say fact check this ai is going to come back and i might have some commentary on my takeaways but you know the facts are the facts and then you know send it around be like i this

seems scary i don't you know let's you might be an expert you might be like i know exactly what this kid is talking about. And I need to take this to this person. I know exactly who it is, but if you don't, don't believe that your voice doesn't matter as much as people will try to punch you and say that you could even, you know, quote tweet and be like, I don't even really understand all of this, but it seems scary. And then 10 more people, you know, like that's what social media is an asset for yeah it's powerful and the uh the players involved with this don't like you talking about it which is another signal hey please oh no they don't they're sending their publicists and um you know we got guys our age flying f-15s you know dropping out of helicopters

in the middle east like we we could at least make sure that something gets fixed by the time they come back yeah i agree with that brother i agree with that um this has been great like i said i love your energy and uh i think there's something here i mean seems i think it would be naive to think that uh these types of actors are post 2008 post um 2019 2020 got their act together interacting as upright citizens trying to do good by their shareholders and the pensioners and the the owners of these insurance policies at the end of the day but i have touched a stove too many times in my life to know that uh like reed does get in the way incentives do matter the incentive seem out of whack here right i think the most dangerous thing is to think that you know

there's no way to change anything it's always going to end up the same way don't waste your energy um and also don't protect yourself right because it all nothing ever happens you know peter lynch says don't time the market you know and it's like listen guys um cash is not a security so i can say cash is good okay bitcoin's not a security so i would say you know cya on um what the potential bailout could be um at the same time don't just 100 buy bitcoin and gold and then all of a sudden be rooting for the world to end you know rooting for the death of the u.s dollar that that's that's that's not the world you you you're going to be rich on the beach and miserable you know so yeah um and don't be so scared of you know stock prices

going down because we got earnings power don't we no use the ai tools use them if you're not already freaks for sure get it yeah get it in your terminal command center for mac it's terminal It takes a little bit to set up, use cloud in browser, any error messages, you say how to, any error messages, copy it back there and then crunch some data, right? It's pretty, it's pretty sweet. Yeah, it's very sweet. Nick, it's been great. Hopefully we can do it again.

Because I think, I don't think the story has gone away. I think you're making enough noise. Yourself, Tom, Gober are definitely piquing the interest of many people. and just looking externally to your analysis at all the redemption gating that's going on in private credit and private equity, it seems like something's happening. And for everybody who's thinking

this could be isolated to private credit, private equity, I think understanding the exposure that life insurance and annuities have to that industry is important to understand too. So thank you for doing the work that you've done. and expressing it the way that you have and articulating it the way that you have may not tickle everybody's fancy,

but I love the energy and I'm picking up what you're putting down. I appreciate that. Thanks for having me on. All right. Peace, love freaks. Thank you for listening to this episode of TFTC. If you've made it this far,

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