TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #739: Quarterly Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis

Episode Date: April 25, 2026

Marty sits down with Matthew Mežinskis to discuss Bitcoin's power law price dynamics, the accelerating "treadmill" of traditional markets, escalating geopolitical chaos including Russia's digital authoritarianism and America's shifting foreign policy, and the mathematical tension between Bitcoin's decelerating growth and Wall Street's attempt to subsume it into exponential fiat systems. Matthew on Twitter: https://x.com/1basemoney Porkopolis Economics: https://www.porkopolis.io/topmoney/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Bitcoin 2026 - Las Vegas http://bit.ly/3NA9xQh CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free if you talk about a fed just gone nuts all all the central banks going nuts so it's all acting like safe haven i believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency bitcoin wins in the world of fiat currencies bitcoin is the victor i mean that's part of the bull case for bitcoin if you're not paying attention you probably should be i had to tell you to stop sharing your screen because i want to share mine we met at the end of january to do the q4 2025 update i believe i don't know yeah it's cute i'm changing it up actually frankly i know i'll continue to change it this quarter it was actually q3 it's

that was q3 last update was at the end of january a month before the um the exploration of the war is it still war is it a ceasefire i don't know whatever whatever's happening uh in iran whatever we're calling it now it was a month before that and to your point and focusing on bitcoin i mean that's one silver lining at least from our perspective of i think what's happened over the last two months is that i think the world was waking up to the need for a neutral reserve hard capped currency monetary system that's not controlled by anybody and want to pull up screen share and we published this on january 31st but when we met things were not looking good for for bitcoin priced in gold specifically as you can see

here from this chart going back it was at the lower bound uh the zero percent bound um of of the power power trend and many people were wondering okay has bitcoin jumped the shark we're living in a gold world gold hard money world now and uh it seems like the tides have changed i mean a few days after we recorded we fell down to the low 60s tipped the high 50s and since then we were range bound for a couple months and now climbing out approaching 80k again currently sitting at 78 126 dollars so um a lot has changed in the last yeah two months three months yeah we should do we should do price actually right now just as everybody's favorite just to kick it off um i got a few base money stats but yeah a little bit i don't know if i've

shown this yet a little bit more of an upgraded uh experience experience here on the um with the charts and yeah i continue to go through the process but it's gonna be it's gonna be good and eventually we'll have access to uh to subscribers where people can get this as well because people would ask it all the time and uh i have some some good unique data that you can't you really can't get uh it's so it's a lot of painstaking work you know there's no apis for this from the imf or whatever um but in any event the gold thing is very interesting and just to remind our listeners viewers here what the power curve is it's a different type of growth that really only bitcoin is exhibiting which is really unique

so here is a gold chart all right just gold dollar back to 1971 right and you can see the january top right here all right we got up to five thousand two hundred dollars now we're down to four thousand eight hundred dollar gold okay as of this recording um so far this is if you talk about actual trend lines this is not like elliott wave abc one two three corrections this is just statistical analysis where everything is in sample i have a lot of data points here um the gold in general is it's an exponential asset but it's growing on the trend only about 5.3 kegger see that from 1971 august 15th to today 5.3 percent kegger i have this extended out to 2050 but this is the kegger till today uh a lot of the gold bugs like to quote this nine percent figure

but that is directly catching the 35 an ounce which really was even higher in august 1971 because it's breaking the peg to uh today you know they just did the quick back of the math with the back of the envelope with the present value future value uh calculation and you will get this has been a rising figure by the way it used to be like seven you know eight percent but with this boom in the last couple years it's now nine percent kegger but the question of course is if you've been holding gold for that long if you've gotten that kegger um but the big thing here and the thing i just am relentless about i try to remind people all the time is whether it's gold apple stocks bonds uh that stuff grows exponentially and exponentially

basically means constant growth so like i said these keggers you can pick any point on this curve this black line here the ols and you can just pick from one point to the next on a compound annualized number it's only 5.3 percent growth you could have more than that if you buy under you could have less than that if you buy up and that goes down but that's the bottom line now bitcoin is interesting in that and i'll go back to the dollar bitcoin chart here right so as you said we're getting getting close to 80 grand okay um bitcoin is interesting because if you just look at this chart which you know very well i know very well you look at in log linear scale it's not a straight line you know i'm relentless on this but it's just not a straight

line it looks different the r squared is a very good fit 96 percent uh and it's not a straight line and the best fitting curve is a power curve and so what that means is is that unlike this gold chart which again can be volatile it can be up down whatever um but it is constant and it can be volatile bitcoin can also be volatile but bitcoin has actually less volatility to the downside it has more volatility to the upside which is interesting but it also the rate of growth of bitcoin actually slows over time and i'll talk about this as well because this is something i've been uh sort of philosophizing about a lot lately because i think it has a lot to do with whenever when once we get to a bitcoin standard once we get to this cypherpunk ideal of

you know everybody having bitcoin as uh based money are we going to have loans and uh contracted in bitcoin or will we have loans contracted in fiat currencies with unlimited amount of fiat interest on top of limited amount of satoshis these are real questions that i think we're going to come to very soon when i say soon i mean like the next 10 to 15 years primarily because wall street is completely in the game now um but but again i get on all these side changes i'm sorry just just to just to sum up what happens with bitcoin when it grows is for every about the brass tax of it is for every 13 increase in the life of bitcoin the price doubles it's very different than gold which basically is on this constant growth rate but is very volatile and

has been very volatile over long periods of time as you can see here right from the 1980 top of 800 bucks for about two seconds on the comex down to the you know mid 200s in the late 90s early 2000s up to now where it's 5 000 today the bottom line is that's a 5.3 kegger which is a doubling uh you know every 12 13 years and bitcoin doesn't do that so bitcoin is about 6 000 over 6 000 days old 6 000 in chain change uh 13 of that number in days is about 800 days or a little bit over two years or 40 kegger at the moment so bitcoin at the moment grows at 40 per year compounded which is an enormous return better than anything in the markets uh although gold has actually competed with that in the last two three years but again you got to go back to the full history

of gold to see the actual trend what it actually means anyway if you take it back to bitcoin it's unique in that the growth it usually surprises to the upside but it's actually pretty stable when it goes down into its bears and i tell you marty i mean it's just it's hard to be right every time i come on your podcast it's hard to be right but look at this i mean look at this nice zero percent bound of the uh of the uh quantile regression for bitcoin it's very basic you know there's a lot of people in the power law uh industry now which is kind of cropped up and i've been following this almost as long as anybody uh that are trying to do like very refined differences and change things about these curves and stuff but the bottom line this is a

very simple curve here it has turned out to be a very nice support of bitcoin and we've bounced nicely off of these you know low to mid 60s since the start of the year and then what's interesting is so now look we have bitcoin in this nice beautiful power law which is like how networks grow it's how cities grow it's very different nothing in the financial world grows like this everything in the financial world grows like this on these straight lines but they can be volatile and when you combine the two when you have bitcoin in dollars that's power you have gold in dollars that's exponential what do you get when you do bitcoin gold when you become gold it's also power so it shows you the fact that bitcoin dominates this relationship and it turns it into a power law

shows you that it's an extremely strong trend and it turns any exponential asset whether it's you know you could do this in apple stock gold dollars it will turn it into a power uh law now i was talking about this a lot on my stream at the end of last year because people were wondering okay are we are we gonna have this blow off top and we go back to the dollar chart here where we go above you know the 90th 80th 90th percentile as we were in the fall last year people were wondering some people were saying the four-year cycle was over i was cautioning a lot that it wasn't primarily as a just don't fix what's not broken thing but actually giovanni a big power law guy came out with some research that actually shows the four years so far is kind of endemic to bitcoin um

or endogenous, I guess would be a better word. And the so far, the cycle is actually completely intact, that could actually be broken next year, we'll have to see. Because some people think that it could blow up in 2027. Which I'll get to in a second. Bottom line, bottom line. One thing I was really, I try to not make too many bombastic calls. But as we were, as the screenshot that you shared from our last conversation right so it was in january we were chatting uh you know so here we are already almost may but in january we were just down down so like no bottom in sight as far as bitcoin gold and it went to about 12 13 ounces of gold per per one bitcoin and that is the one call that actually thought would hold pretty solid as it wouldn't go below 10 because in 2022 the

old SPF scam. When that fully materialized, we went to about 9.5 ounces of gold. And that just seemed too cheap to me, even for a gold bug to get Bitcoin. And so far, this has worked as a nice boundary. Again, I don't know the future. This is all probabilities. But basically, the levels that we set as we move forward in time here become stronger and stronger and stronger. And anybody holding Bitcoin should have a lot of comfort. If you have gold and Bitcoin, you should think very hard, again, never financial advice, but you should think very hard about how cheap Bitcoin is in terms of gold, even still to this day, because it's only 16 ounces of gold. But that's not as good as it was in January, which was 12 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. And I think that this was a

pretty it just goes to show like it was a pretty rare event um but it doesn't change anything about the way the bitcoin grows which is a power law and it does not like it does not invalidate the power law that the gold bitcoin price was going way way low in percentile terms it just shows you that you know when circumstances arise that you need to change your probabilities you change your probabilities. It's still the case on the Bitcoin gold chart that the 10th percentile, which means 90% of the time relative to the trend, the price is going to be above that line. It's still the case right now today that the 10th percentile of Bitcoin is 37 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. The actual price, 16 ounces of gold. So it's an enormous buy. It's an enormous buy if you have

gold right now again i have no problem with gold uh hold some gold wish i'd uh maybe had a little bit more to buy more bitcoin with but uh it's just these are all probabilities here we've yes we've extended the lower end of this band with the bitcoin gold ratio but it doesn't change the power law it doesn't change the bitcoin grows in this very interesting unique way for a financial asset and um that's where we are so i yeah it's a it's i think it's good to look back in with this chart in particular because yes gold is a very analogous asset to bitcoin but um all the signs say statistically that this relationship is holding just fine it's a 95 percent r squared and uh bitcoin gold price is probably going to go uh much higher that means worse for

uh gold holders relative to bitcoin the uh i mean you called it when we when we met in late january we were looking at the silver the bitcoin ratio so that's when silver was going above 120 gold was above 5000 and he had he put it out there he said hey i don't think go much lower and of course we bottom tick that at zero percent bound and have been creeping up question i might have asked you this no because we didn't make the bet yet i haven't asked you this yet matt odell the other matthew in my life the other maddie in my life we made a bet uh what do you think the chances of bitcoin making a new all-time high priced in silver and gold are this year low okay good makes me feel better yeah still low um but you can see

that obviously we're at the very very low boundary i mean to get to let's just go to the end of the year what was the bet just all-time high he said it was going to be all-time high yeah silver to bitcoin and gold to bitcoin ratios have to be a just have to tick a new all-time high at some point in this calendar year he wins if not and both have to hit both don't hit i win yeah that's that's very good for you um so we're looking at the all-time highs are 35 36 ounces of gold per bitcoin which again just shows you how i mean odell is directionally right in the long term but we're just we're so undervalued at the moment i have a hard time cns get past that uh you know anything is possible um anything is possible but yeah it's i think it's

going to be a longer a longer rise to get there i think in 2027 it's very possible that it could get higher um but yeah that'll be an interesting bet in fact because sometimes when things fall so fastly they can spring back fast and i think a lot of the gold bugs that have been in the business like the the real professionals you know like the rick rules of the world and peter schiff when he's not when he's doing something opposite of what he's telling you talking his book like they've sold a lot of their hard metals and um you know retail is gonna be left holding the bag here on this channel which again here i i told you i thought this was gonna be pretty you know this was pretty much close to the top i think that is dollar gold price so uh yeah i would agree

i would agree it's still going to take some time but we could probably next year take it out again because it is insane that even if you look at again look at the q the 10th percentile just take it off again so it's like the second worst percentile by the end of the year that is that should be an all-time high so it's possible it's possible it's so undervalued at the moment that is bitcoin priced in gold as possible can spring back um But I'm just one of these more like sort of gradually follow the signal. Don't worry too much about the noise. So that'll be an interesting bet to follow.

That's for sure. Sup freaks. Guess what? Just booked my tickets to Vegas headed for Bitcoin 2026. It's that time of the year, April 27th to 29th in Las Vegas. I'm going to be there. A ton of people are going to be there. You better get your ass there.

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Sailor's going to be there. Matt and I and the PubKey boys and the Bugle boys, we're going to have live hot style takeover. That's going to be there too. All in the Venetian. Everybody's meeting up. It's going to be fun. Get there. 2026.b.tc. Use the code TFTC and sign up. Sup freaks. This rip of TFTC was brought to you by our good friends at BitKey. BitKey makes Bitcoin easy to use and hard to lose. It is a hardware wallet that natively embeds into a two or three multi-sig. You have one key on the hardware wallet, one key on your mobile device and block stores a key in the cloud for you. This is an incredible hardware device for your friends

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zoom out, you silence all the noise and the narratives around these markets. And you just look at the the data that pertains to the exponential growth trend or the the power trend and it always gives me a sense of calm and confidence okay we're tracking then it's just fascinating how the narratives when you do turn the turn the noise back on and begin accepting signals from the markets and in terms of headlines narratives how they do line up and i think i mean right after recorded less than a month after that the iran war started and then you have these beautiful coalescence of factors that really bolstered the fundamental value prop of bitcoin we're just like oh this is why bitcoin exists these people these nation states can't trust

each other yeah and a neutral reserve settlement network actually makes sense and it seems that the start of the war bitcoin imperatively has has performed rather well obviously coming from from uh lows here on the power trend but uh the narratives were lined up almost perfectly yep yep completely agree the the uh geopolitical questions surrounding bitcoin i think are going to rise and rise and rise like very quickly um i am curious i'm not following all the latest with the you know the clarity act and things in the u.s but there's there's still a lot of tension in the u.s it's like on the one hand you got wall street very involved institutionally but then on the other side you have a president who he's running a coin he's got this world

liberty financial he literally i'm sure i know you've talked about this right he scammed the ultimate scammer he's pardoned him then scammed him and uh justin's son of course and then you know if there is a swing in a hard swing to the left which would be bad as far as political um you know sort of social political issues but if there's a huge hard swing to the left and elizabeth warren somehow can call all the world liberty financial people to the hill in uh you know the fall or next year uh that could be pretty bad news for the short term i know we all know that world liberty financial doesn't represent you know what bitcoin does but i'm curious how you think about that just briefly we don't have to spend a lot of time on it but do you think

think institutionally wall street what guys wall street wise can can sort of get through that and push that more in a better direction of bitcoin uh there's a lot of conflicting narratives there yeah i mean the world liberty five stuff is like the biggest fucking own goal retardation i've ever seen in my life did you see steve wickhoff's son is i guess co-founder world liberty if i just got caught with coke at 11 in my head he's gonna rest a few days ago i didn't see that but it fits the bill obviously yeah um yeah it's i mean it's just very incestuous obviously you have don jr i think eric's involved you have steve wickhoff's son yeah he was running the negotiations with israel with jared kushner involved world liberty by dude gets caught with coke like obviously a

trump meme coined the night before the inauguration or weekend before the inauguration night before why why why uh and to your point yeah i think if you're if you're in trump's camp and you're thinking of ways to reduce the the social attack vectors that exist like obviously you know the left has been very litigious and is trying to ruin your life take all your assets throw you in jail they've tried for 10 years now like why give them another shot on goal with this world liberty five thing is so egregiously a scam and now i'm sure you've heard of like the whole like it's a it's an illiquid shit coin they're using it to take out loans and the stable coin they created and they're buying other assets but it's just like the usd1 they want some of that

canter fitzgerald cheddar they see what they see the all the cheddar that letnick's collecting they want some of their own yeah in usg let me to your point yes i could say i mean i think that is going to be one of the low-hanging fruits for the left to point at and try to try to throw the book at them for but to answer your question directly i do have confidence that wall street i i do think the brand of the united states particularly with all the defy blow-ups in recent weeks and months is wall street really separating bitcoin from crypto and i think it's not going to be easy it's not going to be straightforward but i do think if that were to happen left takes over throw the book at trump for

shit coining uh i think there could be some short-term pain for bitcoin but i do think the market is beginning to realize that bitcoin is different than than all this stuff and i do think there are enough uh financial incentives within wall street around bitcoin specifically for them to sort of brute force like hey yeah throw the book in them for this stuff but this bitcoin stuff we're gonna we're gonna keep going on with and tax maybe that's naive maybe that's a um overly idealistic but no no i take take your point and tax what about tax situations around bitcoin uh the minimus fight is going on right now i got in the mud with coinbase a few weeks ago over that um i saw yeah but brian armstrong didn't take you up on the offer

no he didn't stable coins are the best form of money ever created you didn't know that certainly not base money like bitcoin uh you want you want me to keep going on the old base money train yeah let's do it i know you do i know um you were very accommodative to record with me this morning and so you weren't able to run all the numbers that you wanted to run before we recorded but i think yeah no i mean um by the time this comes out hopefully i'll have a post on it this will be the this is only going to be the i'm gonna i've i've i'll just explain in case people are really nerding out on the numbers and i think it's interesting but I've now got the currency set up to like 136, which is basically all the currencies in the

world that have somewhat some value. But to do that, you have to even be slower on the report to get the total number. So it's going to be it's going to be sort of a three level thing, there's going to be when we do these reports now, right, just to you know, our quarterly updates, It's actually going to be for the total set, it's only going to be almost like a full quarter back. So year end is what is done, literally because the numbers don't exist beyond that to get the full set. And then for the big ones, dollar, euro, yen, yuan, sterling, just this big five, which is over 80% of the value itself. that can be as of the first quarter and then also just a little bit of commentary on the weekly balance sheets of the fed and um the ecb unfortunately with the whole new system and

everything and trying to do it all at once i i took took on too much so i can only talk about just a few a few numbers here but um basically we were at 30 the grand scheme of things after covid december 2021 we're 30 trillion dollars of base money printed now we're down to something like 26 trillion but it's bottoming and it's been bottoming for the last couple quarters um in the us and europe there is global chaos as you know and sort of an open question still whether warsh well first of all whether he's going to come in during uh he's going to come in of course next month but trump has this vendetta against powell so that's still playing out until he comes in but he might not be as dovish as people thought originally so maybe he

won't he won't print and i thought he would print a little bit more like for sure guaranteed rate cut this year we'll see but generally yeah when you think of bitcoin just remind people that are in this all for the first time you know we're going to get back to 2 trillion in market cap very soon that value is directly comparable not with your bank account not with a stable coin but it's comparable with the balance sheet of each central bank the monetary base so it's primarily that's cash and coin plus the bank reserves which is basically each bank in the system the core of the system is their bank account with the central bank so those two things bank reserves plus cash and coins monetary base we're about at 26 trillion as of last quarter and you know like i

said 80 uh 80 of those top five currencies that you would think uh about probably the most dollar euro yen uh you want in pound sterling um so it's bottoming it's turning around uh overall if you want to think of another number that kind of i like to just throw out a lot and this has come down it got close to 13 a year during covid because it's a slow slow moving number now it's down to about 12.5 percent that's the global weighted compound annual growth rate of these currencies since 1970. so you want to think about what people your brokers might say you should get you want to think about what people say inflation is or don't admit that inflation is the bottom line is central bank balance sheets over the course of a year on average since 1970 have grown

at an exponential rate of 12.5 per year so bitcoin growing at 40 per year though volatile though we go through these bear markets still well outperforms that as long as you hold it for four years as long as you hold it for about that four year number get through a cycle get through having you're going to be winning and you're going to be winning against all central bank balance sheets in the world so that's really the bottom line of course i don't have like too many charts here but i do have your favorite one i do have your favorite one which is the the flow of base money so this one just to show you again this is the dollar value transacted on the network uh really peaked in 2021 still interestingly uh at 63 trillion so 63 trillion over the course of

12 months in dollar terms it's actually just bitcoin flowing through the network in dollar terms now it's only about 25 trillion and if you think about that versus what fedwire does which is still the big boss it's very small as you know we've talked about this many times you know you like this chart and uh i wanted to get it updated for you so it's 1.1 quadrillion dollars trailing 12 month in fedwire so we got we got a long way to go but still if you if you just did a little ratio of that we're getting there we're getting there only 46 times smaller than fedwire but if If you just look at that number, and if you look at the general trend, we're in the right direction. What's up, freaks?

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it seems like implicitly through that posturing he wants to push the sort of stimulus on the balance sheet side to the commercial banks and this is by changing slr ratios and all that but He wants that sort of base money expansion, which only the Fed can really do. But he's why you're the right person to ask. Have you been following this? Like he's, yeah, he wants to push it to the commercial banks and basically have them be the front for monetary expansion. Is that correct? He's hawkish from that side.

He actually says the right things. Right. As a as a governor, you know, what Fed's supposed to be is an independent governor of a nation's currency. He does say the right things. um it's an analysis i want to do more because you can see very um weird pools of money that actually buy bonds of the of the the u.s so again just i don't have this chart unfortunately handy but roughly during covid the federal reserve held about 28 percent of the government's debt which was an all-time record by far uh it was rising up during qe1 2 and 3 but in historical

terms like the highest levels before that was about 18 17 during the vietnam war when the vietnam war ended in 1975 and the other reason the percentage went down was because uh the gold standard had ended and people still wanted dollars right so they could increase the debt and the federal reserve did not have to be the only buyer of that debt but now uh so now it's down it's actually down to powell's credit uh from the massive stimulus which you and i both would think that and i think there's plenty of uh empirical and anecdotal data points to suggest was not necessary but you know all the stimulus all the fear around uh covid uh they balloon the balance sheet to nearly $9 trillion for total holdings of nearly 30%. Just to explain how the

bond buying works, not all the mechanics, just in general, a currency like the Zimbabwe dollar during the hyperinflationary times, you can just imagine that they're basically the sole buyer of debt of the government of Zimbabwe when you're running these 1,000% plus inflation so they would be buying 100 of zimbabwe government bonds uh the federal reserve got up to almost 30 which was it's obviously too much so warsh is trying to get that down and he says he wants to get it to the banks and things like that but still there's a big foreign presence you got to work about look at there uh that has there's a lot of rumblings that has been weaponized during uh actually the european fears this gets in our geopolitical discussion we could

talk about a little bit later but there was a lot of legit i mean europe actually thought that trump was going to break u.s law and invade a nato ally in greenland i can't tell you how pissed the green the the the danes are and the greenlanders about this whole thing but that's we could save that for the the geopolitical part of our discussions we'd like to do but But apparently, that was weaponized. The Europeans said, look, we're going to start dumping if you do this. Bases are going to be closed in Europe, all the rest. I mean, it was a big deal.

It was a big deal in Europe. So more and more every day, the United States is playing with fire here with a clear, this is a clear benefit to America over the long term has been dollar hegemony. And I think you and I can see the writing on the wall. Obviously, we've been in Bitcoin for a long time. But you just can't ignore the fact that there are other ways to store wealth. And the way that the US is going about doing it, I actually don't think has shown much foresight at all, particularly Trump.

But if Warsh says, again, that he's going to take... So the point is, back to your question, finally, after laying all that out. if warsh says that banks should bear the burden of treasury costs more okay but also need to see where the foreign flows are and where and how those are being used and that's it's very murky still it's it's not a purely free market right like there's a i don't know like the cayman islands is a huge holder of bonds right 1.4 trillion or something they're the largest foreign holder i believe probably even larger than china so then you have to ask the question well who's actually it's not the caymans it's not like the government in the caymans island right it's investors that

hold cayman bank accounts basically but who are those investors and then you know what's the corruption there and the grift and everything else so the u.s is playing with fire i mean those things you know we're just in a fast digital world these days we saw that with the svb collapse a years ago so it's very dicey it's a very dicey situation um i i i think the us is gonna have a lot of issues here and and again it's all the more reason to buy bitcoin uh i have more geopolitical things to say about that but i'm saving them because it's it's just generally about dollar hegemony and i think that i could be wrong and i i usually i'm usually not like fear-mongering over the dollar much you know

when i come on i'm trying to just say okay these are the facts these are the figures uh so far the federal reserve is doing better it has it's gotten that percentage down from like a third it sounded like 18 at the moment so that's better but uh there are a lot of headwinds i think still for uh dollar hegemony and actually uh bitcoin is just one of them but this multi-polarity trade alliances uh the us is not doing themselves any favor right now so my answer to your question is it's much deeper and i'm not really sure that the us banking system like absorbing more of the holdings of treasuries is i mean i guess in theory it's better but i'm not sure it will solve the problem yeah no it's been uh been fascinating to watch that

i'll play it and don't feel like we need to say the geopolitical if it's to the end because if it's uh pertinent to not pertinent if it's relevant to this part of the discussion because that's that's one thing i wonder because i i mean your point like it would obviously be preferable that the commercial bank takes commercial banking system takes that risk and yeah you would think that they're um they're in a position where they have to think more critically about risk than the fed and the treasury which can just either print the money or issue the bonds and um capital misallocation be damned and you sort of have this forcing function of a somewhat private market and private market actors private market in the sense of not

government actors trying to manage risk because there's actually costs associated associated with it for them it would be preferable to your point like i want to say it's uncharted territory but it is a a tectonic shift in how we viewed the relationship between the fed the treasury and commercial banking system for the last 20 years right yeah and furthermore i mean to be clear like the chart that we're looking at right now this is probably the best chart that shows dollar hegemony i mean you see how huge it is how huge the network effect of the dollar is not just to bitcoin but to anything else i mean you could look at the i think it's called chips is basically the uk equivalent of fed wire um or whatever the ecb uh euro clear all these sorts of different ways to settle other

major currencies like the euro sterling they don't even hold a candle to this amount which is 1.1 quadrillion dollars 1.2 quadrillion dollars trailing 12 months again compared to bitcoin's 25 trillion just 46 times smaller so to be clear it's going to take some time it's going to take some time i don't see the uh you know sort of the flood to bitcoin moment this also happens to do with the fact that power curves generally don't do that so in my view that's actually a good thing but i think it's i think it's going to take take some time but bitcoin has all the capabilities so this is the one we didn't look at bitcoin has the capabilities to actually deal with this so this is transaction count

right so bitcoin at the moment does more than fedwire 373 million uh transactions for bitcoin versus fedwire 219 million transactions and to explain this like you've you've taken out change addresses and all that too this is like as distilled signals you can get right uh this one actually may be gross but i don't actually think um i don't think that's as big of a problem anymore as it used to be a lot of people uh that know don't send bitcoin transactions with change and i i actually just don't think it's uh i'm not adjusting actually this is gross full-on gross um but you could do that and you would get a little bit less It might be less than, if you did that adjustment, it might be less than the Fedwire total of 219 million.

But more and more that Bitcoin is going to be used, like, people are going to probably even do better practices with batching where, you know, basically all old UTXOs are going to get completely merged. It is great. I mean, and this has been the case since, it looks like it started at the beginning of 2016, which is fascinating. again looking trying to your new listener your bitcoin curious the price has gone up towards 80k and you're like okay this thing isn't dead you're coming to listen to this you're looking for signal through the noise i think maddie and i have been doing this for six almost seven years now and probably more than seven years now at this point yeah probably eight yeah and uh seven and a half what you need to understand is like what is bitcoin a

matthew explained it briefly in the beginning but what are you comparing bitcoin to actually base money m0 it competes with the fed and its settlement networks and as you can see from this chart bitcoin is 46 bedwires 46 times bigger on a pure value transacted perspective today however looking at the number transaction the bitcoin surpassed fedwire in 2016 and is that dominance has maintained on a trans transaction count level since then so over a decade and it it shows that there's nothing technical stopping it from beating fedwire just adoption and price yeah all that we have to have is price go up you know for all the arguments we've ever had about scaling bitcoin which were a lot exactly during this time uh bitcoin itself did enough technically to

compete with fedwire technically it's just a question of value network adoption uh in time yeah so like bitcoin is fully equipped today to replace fedwire it's just a matter of pricing purchasing power of bitcoin nx 20x 46x um the big question is can it replace the global reserve currency and from a technical settlement perspective it certainly can so it's exciting man there's a lot of room for optimism uh the short term you know i don't know how you feel these bears but i'm usually uh just more eager and eager to have these bears we can buy at these levels um you know not financial advice but i mean there's so many things you can do like if you don't have any capital you can write puts now on etfs uh you know there are ways if you do have

cash or you don't have bitcoin and you want to borrow against it uh you know your ltv is going to do much better if this really is the bottom which it seems like the bottom and you can use these quantile regression uh percentiles just to really see where we are in the development of the market again not financial advice anything can happen and in dollar terms you know this q0 right this one i'm flashing here could technically set a new bottom uh by the end of the year technically um just like it's did with gold at the start of the year um it would just mean that the distance between the q10 and the q0 expands it's not there's nothing fixed about this chart but what it is it does is it gives you a very very broad overview of

the distribution of uh price around a trend and bitcoin's trend is a very interesting power curve very different than financial markets and the price historically right now relative to the curve is you know 90 of the time bitcoin has been higher all right so i'm extremely bullish i was never worried for a second during this bear um you know just be careful obviously it's not financial advice do what you need to do but um you know i think a lot of the bombast to it's usually people that don't know anything about the power curve like i heard a lot of people in the fall saying that the four-year cycle was over uh bitcoin's on a permanently high plateau some people are were calling for a super cycle is hideous was that you or sarcasm i i should listen to more

tfcc i i confess i don't but um that was on rabbit hole recap i mean uh it was a bit facetious it was like hey maybe this is it yeah no but there's a lot of people a lot of people that are uh saying that and i would even say by the way i still think even though we are we have wall street involved which almost guarantees that the sort of nation-state threat of bitcoin is is done uh my original thesis in fact going back to the world liberty financial thing my original thesis was i was saying you know sometime around this like around a year ago so i could very much see a blow-off top which we didn't have all right but a top in in 2025 the four-year cycle continue and then the democrats take the house after all the trump madness and you know the world liberty

financial is like the on a nation state level sbf uh celsius luna type event right where it's just out in the open that the president of the united states has been scamming his taxpayers and that would bring in the traditional bear uh we still could have that news event by the way i'm not predicting that i'm not saying that i don't know uh anything more than anybody else does uh about what's posted in the news about that company but yeah you you could still we could still have a tough yeah like theoretically according to the four-year cycle four years is a shelling point in bitcoin theoretically we could have which would be good for you on your bet against odell but we could have another leg down by the end of the year uh based on geopolitical

events in the united states it's possible yeah but i think comparing like world liberty fight to fdx i think that's a it's an insult to fdx i feel like nobody uh nobody actually uses them it's just there sure but uh i think the blast radius of like actual financial exposure is way of individuals is is way smaller than it was for fdx i do agree uh the actual you know broad bitcoin or you know crypto exchange community is not exposed to world liberty the way that uh they were to celsius and tarot and ftx i agree but politically the narrative will be stronger pretty enormous it's pretty enormous and it's pretty predictable um it's very predictable it's like why would you that's like the most frustrating it's like

why would you do this i mean it's loot the uh loot the treasury stage i'm not sure if you saw like the press conferences yesterday but they were like flippantly joking about some of this stuff Well, I mean, in the broader markets, obviously, let's not waste time on it. But, you know, the S&P 500 mini contracts, the shorts on the oil futures, it's never ending, the grift here. So, yeah, it's going to be interesting. One more, one more sort of on. Well, let's do this one. Let's do this one while we're on Bitcoin interest.

So I think I showed this one last time. very checkmatey type charts just utxos in profit and lost short-term long-term and you can basically see that we're in a situation where there's a lot of long-term hodlers that means longer than a half a year roughly that are bleeding out that has only happened in the past you know four years of uh these four-year increments so here i would say as well caution we do have a little bit of green coming back for these um short-term hodlers that are coming in in profit again but uh i think that this sort of

this this bleeding out event it could it could take a little bit longer uh but but so far so far signs are pretty good that the the worst of the worst was in february and when gold was over 5 000 but we'll see i this this is not showing any signs to me that it's like we're really on the mend here but yeah for what it's worth i don't know if you've if you have any comments on this one no yeah james is a good friend follow his analysis like yours pretty religiously and i think he's been pretty consistent about this since over the last month six weeks that things were back in a chop consolidation range so we're gonna floor may have been set potentially not set but i'm going back to a range where we just set a floor and begin building up from there

I don't think he has a timeline, but just using pattern recognition and vibes analysis, I could easily see us ranging through the summer and then things popping off in the fall. Yep. Yep. I agree. It's totally possible. So this one I think is interesting. This mirrors the presentation that I gave at Peter's conference in Bedford about a month ago. So look at S&P over its total history, plus a little bit of some backdated stuff. S&P only goes back to the 1950s, but there's the S&P 90. There's some other, you can use the Dow. You can use other sort of ways to even backtest even further, like to the beginning of America.

so i did that um here and you can kind of see so this is this is exponential which again it's uh doesn't matter your order of magnitude here it's about like base 2 2.2 um but when you run trend lines they're going to be straight lines okay so this is the old jeffrey west who wrote a great book scale everybody should read yeah yes it's just about the same we're talking about the uh the treadmills here yep the treadmills and it's a little bit of an update and a little bit of some thought that i think will spur hopefully spur some more interesting discussion on this because i think you know we're talking about protecting your purchasing power talking about how markets are moving they're moving faster and faster it's clear like even on log scale you can

see it goes faster and i'll just show that here so again straight line on log scale 1800s stock market was giving you two percent okay uh you picked the founding of the fed till 1971 basically was you know end of the classical gold standard into the dollar standard which really did only lasted like 27 years after world war ii to 1971. a huge you know boom and spike there grace great depression boom and bust uh moved faster on trend five percent four point eight percent 1971 to 2008 nine point six percent 2008 until now eleven point seven percent and this is without dividends so if you invested those dividends you get at least two percent higher so you'd be closer to fourteen fifteen percent now on a trend which is enormous right think about you know i mean i was

when i was in school we were talking you know about seven to nine percent equity returns and how the market was so overheated with the dot com boom and you know we see where we are now but it's undeniable what you see here is this sort of faster and faster treadmill up in a shorter and shorter amount of time and so this is what really bitcoin's up against and i think this will if you look at the bitcoin power curve basically you can see that mathematically we're going to run into very interesting tension and what i think that tension is going to occur is probably somewhere around uh 2035 2040 and i'll explain but so we have these these curves and then if you think about how market trends actually occur which you don't think about a lot uh or

a lot of people might actually not think about graphing this but if your broker says okay i'm trying to get you know eight percent or seven percent how does that actually look like over time and in exponent with exponential assets with exponential growth it actually just looks like so i'll take these trend lines off it's the same thing but i'm just going to show the percentages they just look like straight lines across the chart so put them all on then i'll get out so you can see here this is two two percent here 4.8 9.6 so you get those you know very strong straight line on the value but if you actually just plotted the percentage this is how markets look they used to be two percent now they're five uh or sorry that they were five in 1914

after 1971 9.6 now they're 11.7 and it's probably even low but that's what they are any questions on this so far there's a faster and faster treadmills no i like this visualization yeah so like the and you can say i mean i think um point of feedback here for the uh for the last trend line i would shorten it to the last data point or a little after it that's that you can really see because when you're articulating you said it you you articulated but think this visualizes it which is like it's getting shorter and shorter like the next stair that you go up the time of that that rate of change is shorter than the previous rate of change yeah and this is um this is something that is yeah i've given a few presentations on this for

about a year probably would do a variation of this in prague as well um but But there's going to be a tension here, basically. So Jeffrey West calls it the essential singularity. He's not talking about the Ray Kurzweil thing. But at some point, whether it's AI, whether it's the next step after AI, we're getting so fast in the growth, in the productivity, and oddly, inflation in other things, even though theoretically, the productivity is supposed to be deflationary. We know we have huge inflation in other areas. like energy um there's just going to be this point where if you're just faster and faster and faster in these shorter and shorter time periods there's going to come a point where

you sort of mathematically it can't really go any further and they call that the essential singularity it doesn't mean he's not predicting anything he's not predicting flying cars he actually leaves it open in his book and so i've what i've been sort of well we've been talking about for a year now. Yeah, shamelessly, shamelessly borrowing this idea and saying, well, it could be Bitcoin is actually the what's going to happen. So at some, at some point, there's going to be a realignment, and it's coming. And so I'll give you the slide I did in, in Bedford, right here, this is basically what I see is the tension. The the steps, the stereotypes are a little bit different, because I was using debt, or they don't worry about it. But I said, say we even get to 20%.

like this is today, say we get to 20%, which we're not far off, right? So maybe we'll be at 14%, 13% on the stock market for a little bit longer, but eventually we get to say we get to 20%. This is Bitcoin's growth. This is why Bitcoin is so weird, is Bitcoin does not have this flat line, the straight line exponential growth, which slightly rises the super exponential growth, because inflation gets more and more volatile, and we have to just keep papering over it, basically. Bitcoin is actually coming in with super fast growth for all the early adopters, but then it's slowing down. So the tension is, of course, in my view, this is my reasoning here is, I don't know if it's going to be technically called the singularity whenever these cross,

right? Whenever the stock market say if it's 20%, or if it's 30%, or it's 15%. But there's going to be major tension where you could say in the stock market get, I don't know, 20%, 25% return. But Bitcoin is actually going to, clearly, it's a superior asset. But in dollar terms, it's actually growing slower. Back to this chart. It's growing slower over time. Still massive numbers. I'm throwing a number out now. 2050, OLS is 22 million. So it's all projected to be just fine in dollar terms. But this nice stable network power growth slows down, whereas the stock market speeds up. So just as you see there in the slide, it's projected the price or network growth of Bitcoin is projected to be 30%. Hit 30% on the downward trajectory. We're at 40% now.

Go down to 30% in 2031, 20% in 2041, 10% in 2070. 2070 is too far away. 2041 is probably even too far away although that's about when you get to 100 trillion in market cap 15 years flies by man that was uh it's it does it does but i this is where i you know food for thought for you i mean i think i think it's five to ten years honestly i think it's when you get to 30 to 25 percent that's really where uh all i can say is fireworks it's going to be fireworks because you're gonna have superior money yeah go ahead as you're explaining this i can't stop saying because matt and i adele and i were talking about yesterday on rhr the whole concept of a universal high income and uh the emergence of ai and you have elon and everybody else sort of preparing the

narrative that we're going to need ubi or some form of um sort of subsidy for the average person because their their job is about to get replaced by these robots that we're building and i don't And as you're explaining this, this singularity, it's just like, in my mind, I'm like, everybody in that part of the world in AI is focused on UBI. But it's like, no, maybe we just need a deflationary currency to pair with this form of abundance that you're bringing to the world. and uh and i thought odell made a very apt point because i think there the narrative forming around ubi or universal high income is i i think more of um just a feigning of like hey we're worried about you like just like to save their back so they don't get um they don't get the luigi magione uh right um yeah they don't they don't get

get luigi'd in the street uh when it comes to like the technical implementation like it doesn't make any sense matt made a very good point yesterday universal i income doesn't make sense because it's universal like if it's equal across the board like he can he gets zimbabwe dollar territory it's like yeah everybody can make a billion dollars but um it doesn't really mean anything because the purchasing power is so diminished and elon the ai camp put together well don't worry the productivity growth of all this technology is going to be so high that it doesn't matter like the velocity of the productivity growth is going to be faster than the velocity of the money um distillation throughout the economy so it'll sort of even out but still i think it's half-assed

sort of salute attempted a solution to this problem that is um emerging i do think half of the half-assedness is just a narrative forming to make sure that they don't get shot in the street Yeah, totally agree, man. I mean, it's a very interesting signal, nonetheless, from the technological elite out in Silicon Valley. It's hard to know. Honestly, it's hard to know how this is all going to play out. The war, the rising interest rates, energy, I don't want to say scarcity, but energy monopoly that is being sort of distorted, dislocations, as the economists would say. is rising uh the only good thing in many stories around the world seems to be like what bitcoin is doing right you know it better than most as far as like you know developing markets with mining um accessing it this neutral asset worldwide and be able to transact with anybody with nobody telling

you you know that you can't uh everything else is starting to look pretty well in so So, again, I'm not a doom and gloomer typically, but this, to me, this is a mathematical representation of how I think the fireworks are going to play out. And I do think it's probably going to be within the next 10 years. Yeah, agreed. And I'm happy you brought that up because it is going to be stressful. It is going to be chaotic. And I think it's necessary. like you have to go through these these growing pains and these these moments of turbulence to

really recognize what the signal is i think we both agree it's bitcoin but i mean to your point on the orwellian tip i mean you had tether freeze 344 million dollars worth of their stable coin yesterday morning and that is another their parallel narrative that's been formed and the drum has been beaten over the last two years the stable coin so the biggest innovation we're going to modernize our economy with them like i said earlier brian armstrong was out earlier this week saying they're the best form of money of all time but i think the market is learning the lesson and i we reported on it at tftc yesterday and i talked about it's like this is like the the whole particularly here in the united states of politicians saying hey um we're never

going to have a cbdc we're going to we're going to make sure we pass laws that that make it so the federal federal reserve cannot issue a central bank digital currency and we're gonna have freedom in the monetary realm here in the united states it's like well actually you're erecting a private market a private bank digital currency system that is functionally serves the same goals cbdc at the end i think people are beginning to see this with the the freezing of assets but it's not It's not only the stablecoin guys, Morty. And this is where, again, it's free real estate for me to criticize because he's obviously done a lot. But let's keep this analogy going now.

So this is the idea, right? Contrary to what people might think, and you still can get great returns. We'll go back to the chart. You can get 100 plus percent returns on Bitcoin if you buy at those lower quantiles and sell at the upper. again not financial advice but it's not it's actually not that difficult compared to say more volatile uh negatively skewed stocks which they can you know blow up faster than you can track them but bitcoin usually bitcoin actually usually it's positively skewed asset it blows up to the upside but the bottoms are pretty pretty rounded i get in on tangent again but the point is

bottom line on a trend if you really are mathematically rigorous about it and you can follow giovanni or stephen parano a lot of these uh power law guys that i've gotten to know over the years um and i fully agree with with all of their takes but on a trend bitcoin used to be you know 50 60 70 kegger it goes down it actually stabilizes and goes down now uh someone who controls a lot of bitcoin michael saylor has made the announcement which is just purely absurd but you know he does it for the lulls or for the uh i don't know just for the cheeky numbers he has said well first of all besides saying all your models will be destroyed and then making a model which he's done a few times and then second of saying he said recently that uh he thinks that the bitcoin

growth rate he has admitted actually that it's declining but he doesn't admit that it's in a power fashion he does this like just weird thing he says that it's going to stabilize around 21 per year now besides the fact that that's just unbelievably uh cheeky and convenient that you pick the number 21 also happens to be 10 above you know your 10 11 cost of funding to most of your investors through your uh your own stable coin type thing right your own stable coin instrument it's not real it's not there's nothing there's nothing grounding that statement he could say it but it's not real so this is really to me and and uh you know i need to probably write a paper on it or something but i think mathematically this is what we're looking at so it's either

bitcoin continues on its power trajectory and it grows like a network and nobody can stop it and the cypherpunk era is uh realized or wall street in particular wall street but probably other you know uh capital markets as well maybe weirdly in in uh authoritarian countries really takes over uh truly authoritarian you can't withdraw and crucially crucially you can have endless amounts of fiat interest backing a limited amount of bitcoin then you could have what saylor describes as pick your number 21 15 whatever during at that singularity at that meeting point which there will be a meeting point of bitcoin sort of slowing down in growth and the rest of the market speeding up in growth if they are successful and and i i do mean this in sort of the uh an m versus term i

I guess. But if they are successful, that is the system, the fiat currencies, then that means that if they are successful in sort of co-opting Bitcoin, then that means that Bitcoin turns exponential. So it actually means that unlike here, where Bitcoin goes down, but if it goes to, say, 21%, and it just hovers above this red line, first of all, Bitcoin can do fine. Price-wise, you might be pretty happy if you bought Bitcoin. Bitcoin can do well. I'm already uh gonna jump jump the shark i mean not jump the shark but jump to the point bitcoin can do better in both scenarios as a bitcoin holder but the the vision is not necessarily the one i think that we would want and probably one couldn't really without great pain withdraw bitcoin at you

know licensed kyc institutions and uh this is actually how i see it now i i'm sort of i'm fleshing it out kind of in my mind, I'm looking at the numbers, but you're going to have a meeting point of cost of capital, return of value and interest. And sort of on the other side, by the way, which is, you know, aligns very nicely with the theories that have been said by many Bitcoiners of the time, you know, Jeff Booth, Saifedean, whatever, like people have theorized if it's going to be um if we're going to have interest or we're going to have these sort of equity contracts i'm not exactly sure but it is a fact it is a fact this is one more thing that makes me pretty sure that like mathematically we're on the right track here is that you cannot actually have

interest in a world where bitcoin grows in power because it's a it's not exponential you can only have interest working in an exponential system do you have a do you understand what i just said there because it's i've said this a lot and a lot of people even in the power uh sort of camp i've pressed them on it and i haven't gotten like good answers but when i say that you can't actually like if bitcoin is growing but it's growing at a sort of sustainable rate that declines you actually cannot for your investments have a fixed rate of interest because at the end you wouldn't want to lend the bitcoin because your bitcoin would be more uh you'd have you wouldn't get enough out in bitcoin interest compared to the growth of the investment

does that make sense yes no yeah i mean you have it there contracts are equity based or very short-term debt yeah that's i mean i've been partial towards that and it's funny um a lot of there's been a lot of commentator i think it's txmc trades or whatever um he's been beating the drum like bitcoin will never be um will never be a medium of exchange because of the growth rate and um like it just makes sense to hoard and not not a spend and sell um but i think i think that and i can see that argument it's a very strong argument to make but i think it's operating from a context where the world remains in in its state at least from a monetary and economic organization perspective and what you're putting forth here on the left

is like hey that that shifts and we have a new a new way of sort of monetize not monetizing but investing and doing capital allocation that that is very different from what we've become accustomed to over the last couple of centuries and um last century specifically and i think that's to answer your question or to help try to help you answer the question i think we're we've both been mulling over for the last year because of your uh your introduction of uh of the treadmills it's the as a thought experiment is um does the market sort of force the left the left um bitcoin turns the world to power law does the market force that and when i say that i mean that's getting out like the technical arguments i like to focus

more on the social and just look at the multipolar multipolarity that's increasing and the lack of trust of institutions i think there's a social aspect we talk about in hyperinflation all the time inflation is two parts mechanical and social mechanical obviously the number of monetary unions that exist and then social ones confidence collapse like there's there's nothing that can um return the stability of the currency it's just going to devolve into hyperinflation i think similar here was what you're describing is um on the institutional side like can they sustain enough of a reputation and sustain confidence can individuals sustain confidence in that system to allow them comfortably to to turn bitcoin exponential i that's where i would

i would say i think the long-term trend particularly since 2008 is that like confidence is eroding and waning and um that side of the market the social side of the market may force um or may just end up with bitcoin turning the world into a power law power trend excuse me yeah no i don't mind power law i mean i i say power trend because some people who don't know the math like get confused but it's it's just the technical term calling it a power law but it's an exponent it's like exponential is a trend power is a trend that makes sense though it makes sense and um this is this is basically my thesis now um i i don't see i think that mathematically explains the situation uh like you said socially uh all the factors are there to keep uh pushing

bitcoin into this area and we know i mean technically all the factors are there uh it just needs to keep this decent you know self-custody act self-custody actually has to dominate and you can't be afraid to withdraw but that is a question in itself yeah go ahead i got more but go ahead i mean that's another part like technically like even if you get to the world on the left on the right excuse me where the world turns bitcoin exponential and for all the audio listeners i'm sorry i'm i'm describing um something visual that you may not be seeing which is a slide which is a slide bitcoin turning the world power of the world turning bitcoin exponential um even if there is a short period where the world turns bitcoin exponential

if there's enough full node distribution and geographic and ownership distribution of hash that exists the ability like yes or maybe a kyc aml regime everything may be gated off but at the end of the day the literal ability to send a utxo from one address to another signing a private key will still exist and if that ever goes away then why are we even doing bitcoin so like there may be some social political sort of factors that make people believe that are this is the way we use bitcoin but at a literal fundamental is this thing possible is it possible to do this thing which is use a private key to buy and broadcast a transaction um that has a utxo land and a public address that you technically can control by yourself yes that will remain true

and as long as that remains true i think bitcoin turning the world to a power trend will be will be possible and i think it's going to be an uphill battle and i think it will come with volatility just like the price chart does but i think again going back to the tether thing i think people i mean maybe it's a bubble but i think you're just gonna have more and more of that people are gonna be like no i actually want to control my money um don't want to use these tools that make it hard for me and i think again the multi polarity of the political landscape is going to only increase and get more vitriolic from here and i think we're in a relative peace time in terms of operation choke point 1.0 and 2.0 but the things that that stuff has gone away forever is

completely naive 100 and it's going to come down to people rallying around probably politically and peter todd talks about this you know we have to bring it back to the geopolitics now so i mean um peter and i might be the loudest uh supporters for ukraine and freedom and uh against russian tyranny uh i'm not gonna go full full throat into that as i usually do but i but i will say it's always been strange to me just lay out the example so it's always been strange to me that on the sort of libertarian free market right we have this hard right faction which it goes to tucker who does a sort of walter duranty type interview of putin uh this is the guy that from new york times basically uh glossed over the holodomor and all the uh terror that the soviet

union was doing in the 20s and the 30s um but he you know he's not doing real journalism with putin and you have the sort of he is throwing out this angle which i think is very appealing to americans that are fed up with american empire which is correct in some ways right which i would agree i mean the war in afghanistan iraq uh iraq in particular completely unjustified called shameful by the british intelligence the way they were dealing with americans back at the time we go on on and on and on but there's an appealing thing here in a free world west also pushed by this is where you have to be careful on social media it's like in china and in russia they can't they their bots can use our net we'll talk about their internet usage in a second but they can use

our social networks we cannot use theirs so in the free thinking west they are manipulating you every day every day in the trenches they're manipulating but what is happening what i'm seeing is uh and you tell me i know that you're more involved with the uh human rights foundation and so you probably see this more than most but i've looked i've asked ai to provide me examples of on this sort of right-wing bro kind of hard right now podcasts at various various levels whether it's whether it's tucker's show whether it's rogan uh dave smith all these guys like have they ever talked about the tyranny in russia that is coming down the pipe right now today and for those that don't know um basically right now the internet is entirely throttled in russia you

can't go on to any western website okay uh everything is throttled for russians uh telegram is completely shut off 95 uh vpns like 486 vpns were just attacked and targeted uh putin is calling it their digital sovereignty he's basically saying that there's an attack on russia there's no attack on russia russia's attack in ukraine uh but we're we are very close now to this sort of in my view this sort of orwellian tipping point this sort of uh uh what's the word like an event horizon where at least in the very authoritarian countries you're not quite sure what's going to happen after like where are to me to me where are all the cypherpunks if they are sort of center right or even you know hard right are they aware and i think you are aware but are they this is why

i'm glad you allow me to talk about this but like are you aware how authoritarian it's going right now in Russia. I mean, it's completely censored. There's more political prisoners in Russia since Stalin. They have something called the foreign agents, where actually they just I saw that the great granddaughter of Khrushchev himself, which Khrushchev ironically stopped the Stalin purges. I'm not saying Khrushchev is a good guy. He was actually bad during the NKVD times as well but when he came into power he stopped the ridiculous stalin purges his grant his great-granddaughter is on this list she's a foreign agent she and so basically you're uh actually you're taxed higher your uh your your travels are stifled your all your accounts are

basically blocked uh you're gonna need bitcoin more and more but like the radioactive canary in the coal mine is actually not the us it's in russia we can talk about the war in ukraine in a second or at least some things that i think will affect u.s hegemony but yeah it is it is unraveling like fast in russia and um i just say that to sort of warn people in the west like you you really need to be careful because like they're the first of all russia's not someone you want to cheer lead i mean two and five russians don't have a toilet there's 1200 schools in russia where children don't have a toilet. 1,200 schools. This is supposed to be like a superpower. Trump wants to do $12 trillion of business. His golfing buddy, Steve Witkoff, as you mentioned, is the

chief negotiator with Ukraine and with Iran and Israel. He could do everything, and his son-in-law as well. But his golfing buddy, real estate developer Steve Witkoff, he's being titillated by $12 trillion of apparently deals that Russia's going to do with them. And Lavrov, the Frankenstein foreign minister has been quoted in saying in some of these leaks that happened in hungary that once we get the ukraine war out of the way uh we can do business with the americans uh all of this is very much in trump's mind that he you know can be this sort of deal maker but in reality i mean the russian economy is two trillion and falling uh they're being attacked every night because ukraine is taking out their air defense so there's a whole war going on right

now for freedom and thank god the ukrainians are fighting as heroically as they are but i just want to say the all the nightmare scenarios that you think about here about like they're happening right now in russia there are uh you can't you can't assemble in russia you can't protest this uh there's a good there's one journalist from the from western countries from the bbc actually his name's steve rosenberg he's still there they haven't kicked him out he's still there everybody knows it like he he goes to their little press conferences he's never allowed to ask a question He's kind of like Putin's beard, you know, like if Putin is a gay authoritarian, you know, which he is, but he's like Putin's beard to the West. So, oh, look, we have this BBC guy here.

Everybody else is kicked off. There's no Americans there, French, whatever. They can't go. They're at risk of being thrown in jail themselves. But they leave Rosenberg just kind of as a as like a token. And he just did a very interesting documentary. I'd recommend it. Just you can search BBC Russia.

You'll find it. He's going through. He's talking to some of these people that are on the foreign agents list, the people that have tried to put protests not against the war in Ukraine, which they should, but they try to actually run a government approved protests against the closing of the Internet. And of course, these protests are denied. I mean, it is right there. so like we are at a level right now in 2026 where you have a nation a former great power that is going back not going forward but going back so everything that we you just talked about like you have this radioactive canary in the coal mine that is russia and i think i just think that

the last line of defense as reagan said is in united states there's nowhere else to go so you have to you have to be careful about them encroaching on your freedoms i've been more worried on the right now because of the trumpet men but i'd be just as worried on the left when you know when they come in what's going to happen uh so everybody needs to take serious account of what's happening in russia okay i mean we i was telling you that man i covered on our chart yesterday like the banning of bpns pretty big that's not even scratching the surface though like it is there's nothing the business is cratering even but they're doing it because they can't control the narrative of how shitty their country is yeah well yeah i mean we've been

going back and forth since what 2022 this war popped off almost whole thing yeah four years now just over four years february 2022. yep i think it's shitty on us like i mean i don't like zielinski and i like i don't i don't i think he's an authoritarianism right my perspective in many ways like i think the russian people and the ukrainian people are uh cannon fodder for this proxy war between russia's view of the future and what i would deem to be like the davos glass west view of the future and to your point about like i mean here in the united states the right we have all these right-leaning politicians passing all these anti-semitism laws which is like hey i don't think you should be out there being overtly anti-semitic and who even knows

what the definition of that word is these days but the fact that you have free speech infringing laws being passed here in the united states is is not good and then on top of that you have this i mean i i had described this with tom long ago i think you two would disagree vehemently on your world views but the last time he was on like i i think this is the best way to describe how i try be all these things that's your different lenses like particularly why i love having you on and then sort of a wide variety of of guests with different perspectives because it helps me put on different lenses i mean your your lens is the pro-ukraine anti-russia baltic view which i think is very important and very valuable for me to have as a perspective and for everybody to have

as a perspective than you have others which is i mean the the luongo sort of lens is that we are trying to break free from our um our uh hide at the hip nature with european economy um with your european politics as as it may be um and break free and get out of all these forever wars which iran was like something i look at i'm like this is this is a a mark against this this lens um but you go back to like the national security strategy that was laid out that is something i agree with like i think we should get out of these forever wars we should focus on the western hemisphere um we should secure our border um but then you look at the day-to-day murkiness of reality and it's just so hard to believe or so hard to understand what is real and what is not

um and that was just like a long-winded rant monologue but is this the guy that says the like the uk still controls the us or whatever city of london it's different than different i do i do vehemently to screw with this yeah um look just a couple things firstly on the war zelensky gary kasparov says it right uh every politician in the world today is a clown leave it to a comedian to actually be the new leader of the free world whatever you're hearing about zelensky whether he's on coke or he's corrupt or whatever he he's that's just not the case he he was offered a ride out of kiev by the biden administration he said i need ammunition not a ride he's leading his people people truly in a churchillian effort

against a much larger power that has much greater resources that thankfully they're just so inept uh and not only inept but they are corrupt to the core they extort uh they're just a terrible outlook on life they're imperial that ukraine which you know like russia the phrase is basically russia is is sending slaves to liberate a free people like what ukraine is doing is unbelievable now the united states is role in that i know there's a lot of people listening to this and say oh well you know just it all you need to get out cut bait fine you're actually getting your wish um but i would say the way that it's happening is more and more a sign of american weakness than strength um just one clarifying point you said the ira or the iran

war was a strike against this view or not uh that that about the forever wars yeah strike against forever wars in this if you believe what was put forth in last year's national security strategy which is we need to untangle ourselves foreign involvement and focus on our hemisphere we'll be much better off like three months later start bombing iran well i think yeah but i think what you should take from that first of all is actually the deep state is not as deep as you think it's very clear that trump himself and trump alone started this war uh as he does on a whim well i mean no you could say he's forced by bb but if you're going to say he's forced by bb is that does that evolve absolve trump from starting the war yeah so i i i have no problem with people

say that he was forced by bb but he alone started the war and i think it's pretty clear to say that this was not a sort of deep state and it actually should make people even more convinced if they weren't already that bush clearly i mean it's it's been on record the all the intelligence services of the uk i can't remember her name it's a she uh on the record saying that the just what the americans were trying to do laying the groundwork for iraq particularly bush administration was shameful this is this is uk intelligence services saying that so it's really not the deep state it's just um over reaching u.s admin and if that's not under control then it can happen but i actually don't i think this is even more example of how the us if we had our together we could do

even better but we don't so we do worse so again i'm not i'm not fully disagreeing with i'm i'm saying you're going to get your way by the way i mean that you are disengaging this is this war in iran uh the way that trump has dealt with russia uh these are signs of weakness not strength this is american weakness not strength they're the way that you're dealing with allies uh basically insulting them every moment and for us in the baltics and poland in particular who have been ravaged by war in the 20th century occupied twice by the soviets once by the nazis um it's hard it's jarring it's jarring like coming from a 1989 1991 i was quite young at that time when you know the wall came down and the soviet union eventually fell but it's hard to see the united states is

sort of there's not even a moral authority right now in europe so this is again um for those that haven't quite picked up with this my american accent i'm a dual national so uh i'm dangerous dual loyalty i'm like jewish right you have to be scared of me like a jew because i have two different i have an american nationality i have a european nationality passport and this is very scary but no i mean bottom line is uh there is in my view the free world we talk about you know i don't want to go too much on this tirade but the values of the free world started in europe they continued in america um that's a fact the us is chose choosing a different path right now and it's usually

not usually it is overtly doing it in a sign of weakness that's going to continue so i just say be prepared this is my this is my recommendation we can't control this stuff but be prepared i've been in europe for 20 years marty and five dollar gas has been the norm all right you got to do the conversion from euros or five dollar gas has been why do you think they drive these stupid fucking cars over here they it's because they we can't drive gas guzzlers in europe that it's the norm and that's coming to you uh here's the other thing i wanted to say one of the things again not talking about the iran war specifically not talking about who caused what but one of the more shameful things that the trump admin has done has been failing to learn from heroic ukrainians

defending their land against tyrannical two and five toilet russians um who are again living in this weird fantasy land and going back to stalinist ways right now as we speak it canary in the cold mind the internet is shut down in russia no mobile internet they can't get on any western sites by the way there's one more thing i didn't mention there's this it's an app just research it chat gpt and ask about it it's called max it is the most orwellian thing you could ever do no one no one russia wants to use it they're buying separate phones if they have to like register something we talked about a couple weeks ago on rhr yeah it take i mean this is not new guys this is coming and it's been this it takes control of your contacts it doesn't it's just a full takeover

of your phone everything you've been talking about on rhr tftc for years and years it's not it's not originating it's not flowering right now in the us it's it's in full throat uh genesis, basically, in Russia. And this is just typical for them. They're an empire that they just cannot. The real reason for the Ukraine war, I'm going to get back to my thing about Americans being prepared for rising costs. The reason Putin started the war is a wag the dog war. Putin could not have a free democratic Ukraine bordering him. That's why he started the war all right it's not about anything else it's not about nato it's not about nazis in ukraine it's it's because putin cannot have a free democratic ukraine that will be the end of uh him

so he's not stopping this war he can't stop the war so the war is going to drag on unfortunately and the ukrainians are now moving there they're already the united states hasn't put a dime in so again you're getting your way i'm sorry you're getting where the united states hasn't put a dime into ukraine since trump came into office i'm going to go back to my argument that everybody's assholes on all sides like focusing on europe like the eu specifically european parliament like i don't think that guy i think they're tyrannical as justice like and trending and not even close not even close you want to know why you're trending in that direction not even close destroyed the demographics with their immigration policy you look at their energy

policy over the last 20 years you look at what they're doing for civil liberties and speech on the internet it's trending in that direction too there there are many issues we touched on this a little bit last time again the entire nation of russia is shut out of the internet right now right that's that's the first thing there are corrections that the uk is taking they need to of course again i'm not a woke left liberal it should be clear if it's not uh that they but again whatever it is whatever the number i don't know three thousand ten thousand the people have gotten notices or fines whatever for their hate speech it's insane what they're doing in the uk they're they're going to correct it they're correcting but and the radical islam and

everything but there's a lot of holdover carry over there by the way from u.s intervention in the middle east over the last 20 years right i mean where do those refugees go those refugees didn't go to the us and by the way i see that we're trying to ship out the afghan uh i see the us is just shameful the people that actually helped the locals in afghanistan and now have residents in america i see that ice is trying to get them out of the us it's shameful behavior but in any event where did most of those refugees go they went to europe so we can thank bush one for that bush two um hold on i wanna i wanna still bring it back bottom line the eu is at the bottom line of the eu it is actually the exact same institution that all the hard right old right

mosesian people say they want is a confederation it's like the old american articles of confederation there is no supranational eu debt um i should qualify that there was not until 2020 they did do a covet package which you and i just talked about ridiculous stimulus money printing it's like 700 billion all right 700 billion at the eu level of debt uh not like the 38 trillion on the american federal level of debt every debt in the eu is solely controlled by each nation state it's it's not a eu policy there's only about 700 billion and again that was fully from covid and you and i would fully not support that uh the other thing the eu budget is balanced okay so every every country sort of proportionately contributes to the debt some countries even take

a little bit or not to the debt to the budget of the eu some countries even take a little bit more out i agree bureaucratic problem they're going to fix it all these things they got they got a lot to do but the percentage of what each individual european nation pays into the eu is about uh one to one and a half percent of their entire spending so just as a as a raw figure brass tax number it's actually not this orwellian thing like washington dc at all it's a confederation it's confederation there's issues we don't have time to go into it i got to uh yeah but um here's here's the thing again just to warn about what i think is coming down the pike for americans with costs and a lack of leadership in the world i can't remember if

i mentioned this last time i mentioned it a few times on different shows in my own uh in the course of this war so when the war started uh iran lashed out at all the gulf nations america could not defend them. So in my view, one of the most egregious oversights that the Trump administration made about starting this war, besides all the other problems that are reported ad nauseum in probably left-wing media more than not, the most egregious thing is that the Trump administration did not prepare and listen to Ukraine. For four years, Ukrainians have been killed every night by Russians with Iranian-designed drones that they themselves have augmented. the iranian drone is called the shahed means like witness uh and the russian drone is garan

which is like geranium russians have this weird like fetish of uh naming their missiles after like flowers so um it's it's it's a it's a the drones that kill ukrainians every night now are produced in russia but they're iranian designed okay so they've been working hand in glove the last four years the russians and the iranians and the americans that were killed the first day in the strikes were killed by drones, Russian augmented Iranian designed drones. And it's been reported, you can look it up, once you have GPT, whatever, there are Russian augmented drones shooting down and shooting into American allied cities and states in the Gulf and have killed Americans. The fact that there's still people don't understand these just basic facts is very

hard for us in eastern europe who have always suffered under the thumb of russian imperialism to understand why that's not like that's not uh people aren't understanding that bottom line you're getting your way you're actually getting your way uh it might not be the way we like it or at least let's say us in eastern europe who always pay our fair share of nato and are asking for friends and values friends and allies in the us who have similar values to help uh you are actually getting your way and but the the cost will be much higher gas at the least uh and probably other things as well supply chain i'm not even talking about straight home moves all that stuff i'm talking well down the road because the gulf states had to turn to none other than

ukraine for their defense uh this is this is like an unbelievable own goal for the trump administration And Trump was even saying, oh, we have these low-cost drone interceptors. He was getting those from Ukraine in some of his random, you know, conferences and stuff. He said, we have these low-cost drone interceptors. Those are from Ukraine. And unlike the disgraceful performance over a year ago in the Oval Office, J.D. Vance, you know, said, dude, you say thank you. You know, I'm not hearing the Americans, the American admin for sure. Thank the.

honestly it's it's all i can say is what ukraine is going through right now is just as much a 1776 moment than americans have had and uh we could go on and on about this i've said it before i mean the americans weren't just some corn bread uh thoroughbred uh corn fed thoroughbred americans in 1776 the french blockaded the hell out of the british they had more soldiers die at yorktown uh the poles the father of the american cavalry is polish the poles were actually losing their state to russia in the late 1700s and they came over and helped america win and now the tides are actually uh turning europe is eastern europe in particular is still dealing with the scourge of russia for the last 150 years and america is unfortunately not really there um and doesn't

really want to help but this is this is what we're dealing with it's uh it's a true like the realignment is here it's you're getting your way it's here uh you're you're not engaged and i think it's probably going to be a higher cost to americans in the long run you might disagree with me on that but uh it is not a proxy war like there's no there's no proxy between ukraine and russia this is uh the russian empire started with the subjugate subjugation of ukraine and it's ending with the subjugation of ukraine so uh from that side me as a european as a dual national you know traitorous uh person here talking to you right now it's going to be good like we cannot thank and support the ukrainians for what they're doing enough it's just from my view i'd say it's

a bit sad to see the way that the u.s is handling this like the way that he dealt with it and i don't think the greenland story is over by the way by the way greenland was not in the national security memorandum but trump has been fixated on taking it i mean that's u.s law a border treaty is u.s law russia has broken all laws with their border treaties which are signed into law with ukraine okay so again there's no justification for what russia's doing it's a tyrannical state right now but what we're seeing with the us is very dangerous i would say for like a traditional european ally because if trump could we got two more years of this and if trump continues to go down the road of we don't need anybody we're just going to take greenland and fox news justifies

taking like a sovereign democrat democratic nation and an allies territory it could get much worse i hope that it doesn't i think that it won't but like the greenland story is big the danes are pissed i mean the danes lost more per capita in afghanistan than anybody the balts were close as well but the danes lost more per capita um that americans and it's like they're they're the best allies that america can have they're the biggest contributors by the way per capita to ukraine's defense um so you're getting it the realignment's happening you're getting it i wouldn't you know i wouldn't uh when you talk about europeans not paying for the defense and stuff that's that's something for like spain and germany and france but for us for us in eastern europe who

have always been subjugated to uh like a tyrannical imperial russia i think what you're seeing is an empire die in russia right now you're seeing america also die and lose their power i mean not die but uh retreat in a in a very disorderly fashion and it's going to be very it's going to be much more expensive for americans uh in the future it would be my caution so again it all roads lead back to bitcoin but i i think you're actually going to find costs probably rise and influence dwindle fast and um i don't know that's my caution we can't change it like i said we can't change it but what i see is uh is us losing a lot of power oh the one more thing so the ukrainians are helping the gulf countries now with all of their air defense low-cost drone

interceptors it's just another example of how ukraine is rising above sort of the hand that they've been dealt the gulf countries in those first like 48 hours when iran was attacking them a month ago spent a thousand so the patriot interceptor the patient patriot defense missile interceptor system is the best in the world it's the one thing ukraine cannot replace and they're desperate to have it every night because they get bombed and droned every night in ukraine they have their low-cost drone interceptors but the patriot missile interceptor is the big one the gulf the rich gulf states they launched a thousand of these interceptors in two days and ukraine has launched 600 over four years just to give you some perspective of again like the just the crazy

disparity the uh distribution of these things if you have money versus if you don't uh it's a real it's a real realignment i i don't doubt it i think you and i agree on you know 80 of this stuff but i would just say you really gotta i would i'm more worried about the hard right not understanding the dangers of the authoritarians like the putins in the world uh and even the left like these losers like on the left these left libs you know like this hassan piker i don't know who he was recently but i saw how you know big he's become i guess like just saying the soviet union it's a shame the soviet union broke up all this i mean economically they're going to lose every time and i think americans know that i think economically the left crazies will lose every time

in their policy but the it's it's kind of the hard right authoritarian which is where i see the trump admin right now which unfortunately scares me more a little bit more but i don't know it's not here nor there that's my that's my rant man that's my soapbox on it i just appreciate a rant i know uh you can hear people typing in the comments already but i would caution to put the lens on and view it. And I think, just to wrap up, because I know you've got to go, the authoritarian right,

I think it's more, the missteps are more disheartening because the opportunity to do the right thing exists where you know the left will never do it. Yeah. That's what I would say. I would, I mean, I think,

um to obviously build on that like i think they're the right in america right now is completely divided um yeah the center has collapsed uh center's collapsed and i don't see it changing and i would say i would just caution americans that uh like you're gonna have to move politically you know if if the government whether it's a left government or right government and i can see the hard sides of it the horseshoe theory is real by the way the crazies love putin on both sides but um just look the the hellscape is there it's it's this max app in russia no vpn no internet uh businesses are cratering and they're just doing it because they have started an imperial war i know it sounds familiar to a lot of americans they're anti uh iraq afghanistan uh

wars and we'll see where this iran war goes but i agree with you i agree with you on american imperialism but once you lose your rights at home it's very hard to get them back and that's where we are i think that's where we are we'll pick this up in the summer see where we are enjoy the conference i'll try i don't envy you but uh it'll be fun it'll be good it'll be good it's just a long and it's exhausting you will see some uh good people and have some good discussions and i know that 95 of the people that you'll talk to won't agree with me on the eastern european issue but that's all right i'm sure many uh who do agree with you will find me and come up to me

thank me for having you on thank you for coming on i hope they do yeah they're they're they are out there they're not as loud in the youtube comments uh but uh they are out there like i said you get in your way uh america is disengaging so there it is peace and love freaks thank you for listening to this episode of tftc if you've made it this far i imagine you got some value out of the episode if so please share it far and wide with your friends and family we're looking to to get the word out there also wherever you're listening whether that's youtube apple spotify make sure you like and subscribe to the show and if you can leave a rating on the podcasting platforms that goes a long way last but not least if you want to get these episodes a day early and

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