TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #750: Stimmy Checks Are Coming Back with Joe Consorti

Episode Date: May 27, 2026

Marty sits down with Joe Consorti to discuss the K-shaped economy and why money printing has severed markets from reality, the Fed's trap between soaring interest expense and oil-driven inflation, the looming return of stimulus checks, Bitcoin's rise as neutral geopolitical settlement money in the Hormuz crisis, and the cultural decay downstream from fiat currency. Joe on X: https://x.com/JoeConsorti STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Aven https://www.aven.com/bitcoin CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

You've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free. When you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts. So it's all acting like safe haven. I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. Joe Consorti, welcome to the show, sir.

Marty Bent, thank you for having me on. How have you been? I've been good. My wife and I, I'm checking my whiteboard because she writes it on there. My wife and I are expecting a baby in eight weeks. So very excited about that. First time dad, going to be a girl dad. And yeah, so that's sort of top of mind right now.

but beyond that i'm doing very well as it should be congrats thank you i'm sure you've heard it it's the old uh the old head dad joke for expecting fathers get as much sleep as you can oh you're gonna miss it funny yeah um no but i think we were i mean we were just talking about it before i hit record i was saying i've been watching your uh your youtube channel i think the uh the coverage that you've been um that you have out there particularly on the economy and as it it pertains to bitcoin is very important because like i said i think people are missing the forest for the trees and uh forgetting about bitcoin's fundamental value prop there's a lot of people that are bearish right now at 76 000 but i think your coverage of the the state of the economy

particularly the k-shaped economy that is developing as as ai takes off and the haves and and the have-nots seem to have a wider distance between them is an important reminder of why Bitcoin exists in the first place. Absolutely. You know, the K-shaped economy is, it's more pronounced now than I think ever before, particularly the consumer sentiment data. So my audience was quick to remind me that the consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is somewhat politically biased. They were saying that I have Trump derangement syndrome. um he's not sure voted for the guy um but anyway they were saying that um you know it's politically biased but either way it came in at its lowest level ever lowest level on record but today the

s&p 500 the nasdaq they're both ripping to all-time highs so like what gives why do people feel terrible even though you know the stock market is doing exceedingly well like you and i both understand um because we've been in this for a while that the stock market is not the economy but generally speaking um they're at least somewhat tethered to one another right um you know where they have this loose semi-directional correlation but over the last several years over the last four years in particular since we hit 9.1 percent inflation in 2022 the two have diverged and now we have two completely different worlds and in my video i analogized it this way i said you know somewhere in the country right now and perhaps this is you viewing this show

um there's a family sitting at a kitchen table trying to figure out how to pay the bills for the month right but then somewhere else in the country maybe just you know a mile or two away from that family um there's a family who is watching cnbc playing 18 holes of golf on a wednesday afternoon and they're checking their portfolio and it's doing exceedingly well and all is well in the world two completely different worlds and it's really enabled by money printing The sole reason there is a disconnect between the S&P 500 and the fact that it's at all-time highs and consumer sentiment is at all-time lows is money printing. It's the fact that we have detached money from physical reality. And now you can print in excess of actual physical reality.

Money was created, of course, to be effectively a communication mechanism, communicate value. Um, and now that we have detached money from gold, from energy, um, money doesn't communicate value well anymore. And really what it is, is, um, people who hold onto the paper claims, uh, they lose. And so the bottom leg of the K, uh, is just having a terrible time. Inflation has been running above 3% for four years now, or above two and a half percent, but we'll call it 3% for four years now. and as a result of that over the last 18 months for the first time in well over a decade

for the entire year wages have been outpaced by price inflation it's not good like that's actually terrible and so really you know people can call it the silent depression people can call it the k-shaped economy um it all boils down to the exact same dynamic which is that asset holders are doing exceedingly well and i am of the opinion they're going to continue doing well into the midterms because it's really the only card that trump has left because of the war and because of inflation um and the asset poor are not going to have a great time yeah and that's the uh i mean even between the haves and the have-nots uh i think the acceleration of this ai wave bubble whatever you want to call them more under the impression that it's a wave and not a bubble

like it seems real to me we're using it every day but if you look at what's dragging the stock market higher it's anchored to a very small subset of companies that are anchored to that particular theme and that is um that is like the confounding sort of problem of that i'm focused on right now is like there's all this incredible innovation it's making those who are high agency and willing to to dip their toes and begin playing with the tools and use it towards something that's actually advantageous for them there's a ton of companies that are just wasting money on this but some that are using it to their advantage are seeing a lot of uh productivity growth and efficiency gains uh but to your point about the stock market versus the common man who's got very

low sentiment right now is battling inflation delinquency rates rising uh price at the pump is going up actually just saw a high school friend posting he lives in california i think it cost him 200 to fill up the the tank of his truck it's uh it's very clear that what's being portrayed in the mainstream is not what's happening in real life and people still don't understand the money printing aspect i don't think uh and that's i think to your point what you said earlier we've been following this for a while and we've both been trying to educate people about bitcoin but what is it going to take to to connect the money printer to the the ills that are felt throughout throughout the lower rung of the k yeah it's um i mean it sounds trotted out and played out but

it all boils down to education you know like people need to realize that to some degree it's you know mass migration and to some degree it's like a lot of other things in the country um that are causing what people are feeling every day like the the danger in their cities and the prices of everything going up but the the pernicious evil that actually enables all of that all of those downstream things is the money printer and so basically it's just the same message that needs be repackaged in like 100 different ways you know and so um yeah it's just more people pounding the pounding the table on it right and you bring up a um bring up a really good point about ai like it's it's a wonderful tool because it means like you would think about you could basically

transplant a 130 iq individual into any household across the country for basically free at this point in time because chat gbt obviously it's you know it's not the greatest i prefer claude um but you know you have free access to this tool that's basically a second brain um that has an iq that's higher than the median iq of this country and so you would think that that would uh raise people's awareness about this issue about what's what's really at hand but the unfortunate thing is you bring up agency um you know you can give a you can give just a random person the best sawzall in the world or the best hammer in the world but if they're not a carpenter or a sculptor it's not going to matter in the same way you can give um just a relatively low agency individual access to

this supercomputer where you could spin up a personal brand you could spin up a second brain you could spin up a business um entirely using this tool um you know but they won't do it right because doing that requires agency it requires consistency it requires focus it requires deep thinking it requires problem solving and so even like giving them that tool it's not going to necessarily do much and so bringing this back to bitcoin there's only so much we can do to educate folks and i think the the logical step um is to package things differently bring it to them in a format that they can understand and jive with but there are always going to be some people who just don't get it, whether because they're just not intellectually curious or because they're led

astray by crypto or any number of things. It's really sad to see. But I think the message of the fact that, you know, you just need a dollar to buy Bitcoin, right? Just one dollar, probably a dollar lying around. If you spend any time in a city, you could find four quarters, right? This is the lowest barrier to entry asset in existence. Obviously, now you can spin up an account on robin hood and buy fractions of stocks but the fact of the matter is um even with one cent you can be allocating to bitcoin so it's just a very important message to hammer yeah what um in terms of money printing i'm bringing back to the core why bitcoin exists you mentioned the genesis block uh i think before we hit record but uh chancellor on the break a second bailout for

the banks i think that's one of the questions that people have is kevin warsh is is taking the reign as Fed chairman is, what's he going to do when you have yields across the globe screaming Japan, UK, France, here in the United States? As well, you have inflation running pretty hot, too, and many people beginning to question what we're going to do in terms of saving that lower rung of the K if another liquidity crisis arises and obviously private credit's been a big theme over the last six to nine months and many people are wondering if that will manifest and metastasize into a more systemic crisis doesn't seem to have quite yet but i think looking at delinquency rates

particularly on auto loans and student loans and the specter of mass layoffs because of ai whether or not it's actually because of the productivity gains or it being used as an excuse to cut bloat at some of these uh some of these larger companies i think that's that's one question that many people are beginning beginning to wonder is is the fed going to have to lower rates and um stimulate uh the the economy via something like qe if something like this manifests And Warsh has explicitly said that he would like the lower rates, but continue with QT. It's like, will the market let him do that? Yeah.

You know, honestly, I don't think the market will, because if you think about it this way, the bond market is clearly screaming that we need higher rates. But I actually think the bond market has it right because they're pricing in higher growth and inflation expectations by selling off. But they have it wrong in the sense that this is a type of inflation the Fed really can't do anything about. Right. you have two different kinds of inflation, right? You have kind of like push inflation and pull

inflation. So like pull inflation would be where there's so much spending happening in the economy, like consumers are just buying, buying, buying, you know, as a result of extremely low interest rates and or monetary stimulus of money printing, like helicopter money, which I believe we're actually going to see this year. I think we're going to see STEMI checks. I'll explain why. You know, so there's sort of that pull inflation, which the Fed can solve by raising interest rates, by increasing the price of money, making it more difficult for that borrowing to occur, making it more difficult for banks to extend loans, and then inflation comes down, right? But then you have push inflation, right?

The one way to describe it, which is where the input costs are materially rising, and it's not because of the level of interest rates. We're experiencing that right now. inflation is being caused by the oil shock out of the Strait of Hormuz, largely. 20% of the oil supply globally flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Obviously, being in the Middle East as well, they can export it much cheaper than here. And so there is a much larger price impact than just 20%, more like 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%. We've seen that with oil trading around $100 or over $100 a barrel. We're coming up on three months now. So you have that in the background. That's what the

inflation is caused by. The Fed can't really do anything as far as interest rates are concerned in order to fix that inflation. The only thing that the Fed raising its policy rates would do, in my mind, is destroy demand even further, which would lead us into a recession, which would lead to more stimulus out the other side. And so in my mind, the order of operations here, what needs to happen is the Fed is kind of stuck right now between a rock and a hard place. Our interest expense over the last 12 months,

the rolling 12 month period was $1.27 trillion. It's the second largest line item on the balance sheet. It's been that way for about a year and a half, two years now. If rates stay where they're at right now, within six and a half months, interest expense of the national debt will be the single largest line item on the U.S. government's balance sheet. That can't be allowed

to happen. So what needs to happen? Well, a couple of things. And this also ties into the political incentives behind this war and why I think it's going to wrap up soon and later and why asset prices will do well. As I mentioned a couple of moments ago during the last question, like the only thing Trump has left for him, in my mind, is asset prices, right? He had the younger voters with low inflation and no new wars, but now asset prices are really the only thing he has going for him. And so ending the war sooner than later, making sure inflation doesn't rise too terribly throughout the summer so that asset prices do well into midterms, it's kind of the Hail Mary last card he has left. And so in my mind, he's going to end it sooner than later, but that

remains to be seen. Yeah. And I mean, you mentioned Stimmy's going to come. In what form? In what way? Yeah. So I think, honestly, I think this happens if the war rages on past mid-June. reason i say mid-june is because a lot of analysts from goldman and jp morgan have cited mid-june as the time when the world's largest country's strategic petroleum reserves will be depleted or at critical levels and at that point all of the downward price pressure that them draining their petroleum reserves will have had on oil won't be in effect anymore so you'll see extreme demand destruction you likely see recession so in my mind before mid-june if the war rages on into july into August, right? That is when you're going to see extreme inflationary demand destruction,

because what we're seeing right now is sort of the first wave, if you will, of the oil shock. You're seeing it at the pump. It sucks. I live in Massachusetts. Normally, gas is like $2.20 a gallon, nothing terrible. I just filled up yesterday for like $4.80. It was not fun. But I also want to make sure my wife doesn't run out of gas on the way to one of her you know prenatal appointments like i have to bite the bullet and do it in california um average price is over 750 i'm pretty sure coming up on eight which is i don't know how they do it out there i don't know how they survive um and so that's like wave one wave two obviously this impacts diesel but the the second order effect of diesel prices being really high is all of a sudden

farmers can't grow the food that they need um and then when farmers can't grow the food that they need, not just because of diesel prices, but because of high fertilizer prices. All of a sudden we get food shortages and many outlets have been talking about, hey, like over 40 percent of farmers in the southern United States say they don't have enough fertilizer for the growing season. That's not good at all. And so, you know, the second order effect of the oil shock is food shortages. So not only are you going to have food shortages and the price of the pump being extremely high like everything is a petroleum product nowadays so like the paint on my wall behind me this microphone this pen all of it is a petroleum product my glasses my shirt

unfortunately it's not 100 cotton and so like all of this uh every single asset every single price in the u.s economy is going to be repriced higher if the straight of hormuz doesn't open up very soon. The bar that I'm setting on that, the threshold is mid-June. I'm no expert, but I'm listening to the experts. That's the extent that I will trust the experts as far as geopolitics are concerned. And so that's sort of my threshold. And when I say we'll see stimmy checks, I mean, this is like the last and final Hail Mary. If the war doesn't end and we are teetering on the brink of recession, then I believe the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve will get together because the reason Kevin Warsh was chosen was specifically because he's going to do Trump's bidding. He's

going to do Scott Pesce's bidding. The level of interest rates matters much more than it ever has before. And keeping them low matters much more than it ever has before. And so I think in the event of an inflation or a recession, rather than allowing that to occur, you're going to see preemptive action. You're going to see stimulus checks, right? The thing I'll say here, the last thing i'll say to justify my thinking is that in 2008 the response time was like seven months between the first bank teetering on the brink of failure and then being bailed out to the fed actually doing something right after other banks begin collapsing in 20 2019 it was i think the response was three days between the cash shortage in the repo market and the fed's

response so it went from seven months to three days okay great march 13 2020 the response was overnight. So major market crash, major global shutdowns, the Fed stepped in immediately, literally overnight. And then with the 2023 banking crisis, Silicon Valley Bank blew up within hours. The Fed stepped in, had a brand new facility spun up for them. So the response time to crises has grown shorter and shorter and shorter and shorter and shorter. What's the next logical step from here? Well, either it compresses more or we go from reacting to preparing for events like these. And so in my mind, either we get an inflationary recession and then stimulus checks, or in advance of an inflationary recession,

we get stimulus checks, right? And this is, of course, assuming the war rages on throughout the summer. So freaks, this work was brought to you by good friends at BitKey. Guys, things happen, things get lost. You need to replace your phone. Life happens. And BitKey has been designed with this in mind. So if you're looking for the easiest way to secure your Bitcoin off the exchange, go get a bit key. It doesn't come with any seed phrases. There's no single point of failure. It's a two or three multi-sig. You have your device, you have the mobile app and block stores, a key in the server. So you have collaborative multi-sig there. On top of that, the new bit key has a screen. So you can actually see and verify what you're approving. You can look at transactions,

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the whole game if you've been stacking for years and you need liquidity without triggering the taxable event this is worth a serious look go to aven.com slash bitcoin that's aven.com slash bitcoin check it out yeah and i i think that's i just had a luke roman on last week and that was one of the things we discussed is did and is the trump administration machine underestimating the leverage that that Iran has and how how far they're willing to dig in their feet and and be a stick in the mud like will they cooperate if Trump comes to the table and says let's end this war and they say you know what uh you started this we're not ending it yet and that uh that could be a very interesting development and then on top of that too another

thing that Luke and I discussed which is something I'm still very skeptical of is even if Kevin Warsh fed lowers the fed funds rates and the assumption is that that will bring down the long end of the yield curve i think that's a a faulty assumption especially after what we saw in september 24 when pow lowered rates and the 10-year and 30-year moved inversely to that fed funds rate cut and so that's like a whole nother can of worms that that i don't think people are are really they have amnesia people forget what happened in september 2024. it's like who's to say that that won't happen again if you're just looking at the the long-term charts and the 10-year and the 30 year looks like they want to go into a structural bear market uh in reverse the last 40 years or

40 years up until 2022. certainly looks like they do and ultimately like you know you've spoken with nick before like you know great friend of both of ours like the one thing he taught me that stuck with me to this day is that rates lead the fed it's not the other way around and that's what luke was alluding to like the fed's job is not to set interest rates it's to set policy interest rates in order to create a corridor to try to influence the rates in the us treasury market higher or lower but ultimately the treasury market is ultimate control right the bond vigilantes as they're called and so if they view what the fed is doing as a policy error right or a policy mistake then they will move markedly in the other direction and that's exactly what you're seeing

right now like the there was so much easing bias before the war in iran like the year was looking up so well for asset prices for everything um for price inflation um well maybe not for price inflation it was still at like 2.6 2.7 before the war um then all of a sudden we enter into the war and the three high the three cuts we're gonna have this year turn into two hikes right i tend to think that once the war ends and i think it'll happen sooner than later that that reverses uh the bond market gets bit up again particularly now because equity risk premiums are deeply negative like the most negative they've been relative to the 10-year yield um like over a decade i believe and so the incentive to start bidding u.s treasuries relative to equities is

so rich right now so i think we're going to start to see a reversal in the equity market and in the the bond market um but who knows it remains to be seen it might get a little bit more hairy out there and we might need to see some emergency intervention i'm not on the you know yield curve control train just yet but if we see a five and a half percent 30 year then i just might be who knows yeah what do you think this means for bitcoin do you think people are being lulled into a state of complacency right now with the price trading where it is I certainly think so. I've spoken about this a few times, but the balance of risks for me are more so on the side of Bitcoin has found its bottom. Whether or not that means we continue

going lower remains to be seen. I think $60K was the cycle bottom. And the balance of risks favor that with everything I discussed about ending the war and the political reasons for doing so. That said, if inflation runs extremely hot, we get an inflationary recession, every asset it sells off, the bond market continues selling off into the stratosphere, then Bitcoin, alongside every other asset, would get sold off immensely. You'd have this huge dash for cash. At what level that happens in the bond market, I have no idea. I was six years old in 2007. The last time the 30-year was this high. So I have no idea what could happen or the level of demand destruction that this level of interest rates could cause on the real economy. A couple of observations.

um like first and foremost you mentioned it earlier record high credit card debt highest level of credit card delinquencies since 2007 um record high auto loan delinquencies record high student loan delinquencies so all these are not very ideal the student loans don't matter as much because it's um obviously you know students fresh out of college or within five or ten years of college they're not major spenders in the u.s economy just yet so student loan delinquencies and they don't matter all that much. And also they won't come after your assets if you default, they will just tender your wages

for the rest of your life, which is not ideal. What really matters is credit card delinquencies because that reigns in consumer spending significantly. You and I both know a lot of the consumer strength that we see today isn't actual strength, it's just a function of people putting stuff on credit, running up that balance, minimum monthly payments every month,

take out a new credit card, rinse and repeat. But with delinquencies where they're at, all-time high, or highest since 2007. And with rates climbing, that means credit card rates can only climb. And beyond what point does credit become so constricted from a rates perspective that you start to see consumers actually pulling back on their spending? And so that's the main thing that I'm looking at. Really disconcerting to see that balances are at an all-time high, but it's like that happens every month. They're always running up. The delinquencies is the main piece of data that concerns me. Same thing with auto loan delinquencies. And so it's not ideal.

And it's telling me that these really high rates in the US treasury market are beginning to be felt across the economy. The main thing for me will be at what level does this begin to weigh on public companies? That will tell me, okay, it seems like we may be entering into a bear market as a result of the war raging on and treasury selling off. I spoke with someone else earlier today. And I was saying, this time could very well be different in the sense that we have the SpaceX IPO coming up. We have the anthropic and open AI IPOs coming up. And so even though rates are at 5% of the 30-year, over 4.5% of the 10-year, and the equity risk premium is the most negative it's ever been relative to the 10-year in over a decade, there's a mania in the market

where people just do not want to miss out on those IPOs. And so I think that because of that and because of the AI boom, I don't think it's a bubble either, but because of investors wanting to remain allocated, I think really high rates won't have as big of an impact on public companies as they should for longer than people think, just because people want to remain allocated. So yeah, as far as Bitcoin is concerned, look, we'll have to wait and see. I think the balance of risks probabilistically is that Bitcoin has seen the bottom for this cycle. You know, the reason I say that is because generally speaking, when you see what happened in 60K, which is extreme demand and a bounce up from the bottom, literally less than 20 minutes spent at that level.

Generally speaking, that is marked the capitulatory bottom. If you think back to 2022, we bottomed a few percentage points below the 2017 all time high. um and so a bottom of 60k which is a few percentage points below the 2021 all-time high like that wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for me um so i have to wait and see it all depends on the war in my mind yeah i completely agree there and then factor in all the fundamental or tailwinds that exist for bitcoin right now the inflation which is already here may may increase as uh you described with the supply shocks that are that are hitting the economy will have a lagging effect on on prices that will likely hit this fall and then the war

itself i think what we've seen with hermu's safe and uh the weaponization of stable coin rails to freeze assets held by the irgc and again whether you like it or not just looking at it unemotionally the fact that it seems like the um straight of hermu's toll system will be using bitcoin as a preferred currency highlights one of the fundamental value props of the network which is permissionless access to a final settlement network with the bear asset digital currency yeah no it's money for enemies you know it's money for everyone including your enemies and it's kind of the way i view it all and it's so fascinating to watch it all play out is that it's like this geopolitical bitcoin arms race almost what senator lummis was talking about a year or

or two ago, and she said that, I think she was on Bankless or something. She was like, wouldn't it be nice if we could race to accumulate Bitcoin instead? Bitcoin is proving to be of immense geopolitical importance in Iran. Whether or not any toll actually gets collected in Bitcoin, whether or not any Bitcoin-backed insurance policy actually gets charged, the point of what Iran did is that it showcased to the world that in an increasingly distrustful and fractured world order. Bitcoin is the neutral reserve asset of choice, right? It is the preferred medium of exchange. When you cannot trust anyone you're transacting with, whether we're talking global trade, whether we're talking a shipping route, whatever, the money that you want to be holding,

transacting in, is one that nobody can seize from you. Nobody can freeze. Nobody can take away. Nobody can dilute or devalue. And the only thing that fits that bill is Bitcoin. Initially, you just mentioned it when iran first talked about this toll sort of v1 of this program they were they were accepting one stable coins and bitcoin those are the three things well tether froze 344 million dollars worth of their stable coins so now it's just down to two which is the one and bitcoin okay great but with the yuan between those two um where else are you going to transact and also think about it from the perspective of somebody who is on one of these vessels let's say they're an american shipping vessel or a european shipping vessel they have to onboard

themselves into yuan they have to figure out how on earth to convert their existing currency into yuan they have to eat that differential um and it becomes a very very difficult thing to do now imagine you're a ship and uh you can use bitcoin over lightning network you can really easily swap between your u.s dollars or your euros or your yen or your yuan or whatever into bitcoin pay the toll or buy your bitcoin backed insurance and then convert it back right um you know and for iran from iran's perspective this is money that can't be frozen and so really it is the only solution it's the only emergent financial technology that works as a neutral sediment layer in an increasingly trustless and fractured world order and so pair that with

what the united states has been talking about lately like even setting aside the american reserves modernization act which is extremely cool um you have pete hagseff saying that bitcoin is of immense geopolitical importance and we need to um you know we need to adopt it and embrace it before china does before russia does like for the everyman um you know sort of the two different angles of bitcoin here for the everyman it's it's a hedge against perpetual fiat debasement money printing them stealing your time them stealing your energy but for sovereign nations like obviously it's a great tool for doing that exact same thing performing that exact same function but more importantly it's it's something you need to accumulate out of geopolitical

strategic importance think about this from the united states perspective bricks is a total failure complete and total failure uh like the the leaders in the bricks nations are trying to kill each other you know not ideal right so what do you need in that environment um like gold simply does not work as a settlement asset when you have high frequency high volume global trade but bitcoin does and you pair that with the trustlessness factor then bitcoin fulfills that role even better and so all of a sudden among all of those nations they're slowly but surely finding the currency that actually works for what they're looking to do which is creating a sort of secondary global economy like an eastern global economy that isn't reliant on western consumers

um if you're the united states and you see that happening are you going to sit idly by and let them accumulate a ton of bitcoin and you know push you out of this system or are you going to use your world reserve currency status as the pawn in order to use your balance sheets strength your strength as a creditor globally um uh in order to accumulate a lot of bitcoin before they can and make it prohibitively expensive for them to create this separate system that pushes you out of your global hegemon status, right? I would say the former, right? I would print a ton of money to buy Bitcoin

to prevent them from doing it before me. What's up, freaks? This rip is brought to you by good friends at CrowdHealth. I've been a happy CrowdHealth member for almost five years now. My wife and I have had two children while we've been on CrowdHealth and I actually just got the last bill

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Five years on CrowdHealth, not looking back. Join crowdhealth.com slash tftc. use the promo code tftc once you set up your account you're going to get 99 a month for your subscription for the first three months so freaks when you take bitcoin seriously you start with custody you want to control your keys avoid single points of failure and make sure your savings cannot disappear because you or someone else screwed up that is what unchained has been focused on since 2016 unchained is the leader in collaborative multi-sig custody and bitcoin financial services that keep you in control they secure over 12 billion dollars in bitcoin for more than 12 000

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fees, exclusive access to events and features, and much, much more. If you want a partner that helps you secure and grow your Bitcoin without giving up control, go to Unchained.com and use the code TFTC10 at checkout to get 10% off your new Bitcoin multisig vault. That's TFTC10 at Unchained.com. I mean, I think one of my favorite theories out there, I'm not saying I believe it, i think it's plausible but that uh strategy is the uh the strategic reserve if you wanted to tinfoil geopolitical game theory game and you didn't want to tip your hat to your adversaries about your your accumulating uh your the way in which you're accumulating bitcoin you have a a company in the public sector um excuse me the private sector

via a public equities vehicle accumulate as much bitcoin and it'd be like what one and a half days of qe right now uh as it was back in uh in the 2009 to 2015 era well i mean hey tyson's corner is very close to dc so who knows right but to the point like it is uh it is becoming more geopolitically important to consider bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset the one thing i worry about with iran and hermudeus safe is if the government ofac the law enforcement agency is associated with these supranational entities uh look at this and say all right well we can't have iran using bitcoin as this neutral settlement network we need to shut down the street and they can't be doing this and they they try to find a way to to freeze or prevent transactions

from being uh included in blocks the way tether was able to freeze us uh usdt held by the iranian regime and i think that's we're at that point now where it's like in my mind it's like are they going to try to do this are they going to go mining pools and say hey uh here's a list of addresses um that if they're moving bitcoin or bitcoin is is looking like it's going to move toward them uh you cannot include them i think that'll be if anything like the decentralization of hash rate as a result of ai data centers it's perfect timing for that right because that does occur it will be less and less powerful than than if it was say a couple of years ago when it was centralized among a few big players agree and i think the the amount of hash rate in china

that still exists even though many will be led to believe that it's not in there and then you look at chinese mining pools as well like i find it hard to believe that that those transactions wouldn't make it through the point being is like i think the u.s government it's time that they recognize like hey this thing isn't going away you can't control it and you have to get comfortable with that and it's not only a problem for the u.s government i think it's a problem for individuals as well um it's completely anathema to what we've come to be accustomed to which is the financial system is very very controlled and very easily manipulated by the powers that be and there's this whole sort of social rewiring that's still necessary i think for many of us

it's already happened but for for most people on the planet it hasn't happened yet which is we need to be comfortable that this neutral peer-to-peer digital caste system exists it is money for enemies and whether you like it or not everybody's going to use it and how do you get people comfortable with that without the government attacking it because they don't like that they can't control it yeah it's it's going to be an interesting several years to navigate i'd imagine you're going to see the liz warrens of the world blame bitcoin for the next financial crisis if and when it does occur um you know that'll sort of be her last hurrah of relevancy like i think as bitcoin grows in geopolitical importance one thing is that

you know maybe not from all sides of government um but a lot of government will begin pointing the finger at bitcoiners um and if and when like you know a major zero to um or rather correlation to one event occurs where there's this huge crash and then following the the crash bitcoin is the best performing asset um i just tend to think that the hostility toward bitcoiners is only going to increase over the next few decades as we keep winning india's being the best performing asset awfully does it have to be that way is this is this the predestined path to victory is uh a long-trodden uh volatile trip up into the right over time until bitcoin's a reserve currency but everybody hates you on the way up is there is there a way to avoid the hate or is it just part

of the uh the territory i mean i certainly think that the united states embracing it is one way and i think republicans maintaining control of the house and senate in november and then winning in And 2028 is a surefire way of making sure that that's the case, that at least here in the West, Bitcoin is viewed as something that is for the everyman, something that you can use to insulate yourself from the powers that be. But I think that if we lose in November, if the Republicans don't win in 2028, even though there are some people on the left that, you know, like Bitcoin, it's largely a Republican phenomenon, at least as far as D.C. is concerned.

I think you're going to see a lot of hostility toward Bitcoiners, particularly if we get President Ocasio-Cortez, which would be incredible, incredibly insane, then that would sort of be the doomer road. Like, you know that meme where it's the light road and then the dark road at the inflection point? I really think it all rides on whether or not the U.S. embraces Bitcoin as far as the Bitcoiner's journey over the next five, 10 years is concerned, whether it's positive or negative from an external perspective.

And a lot of that is riding on, I think, Republican control in D.C. Yeah. No, you mentioned AOC. I'm sure you saw the SEC video going around this weekend. It was hilarious, but it's a, it's funny thinking that we're having, just as Americans having discussions like this, worrying about who's going to be in control of the House and Senate and the executive at any given point in time. and just thinking about how crazy some of the debates are particularly around tax policy it's like we've gotten so far away from what this country was founded on where um the founding fathers were were throwing tea into the boston harbor because miles two percent tax uh to pay back award debt that the uh the british kingdom had had amassed uh and now we're sitting here paying 30 to 50 percent tax rates and it's not enough particularly for the left but even for the right i think uh the the interest expense on the debt is the big and obviously the unfunded

liabilities that sit off balance sheet are the big looming sort of anchor that force us into this incredibly extractive tax regime which is insane like even in like ancient rome times i don't don't think tax rates for this high but it's like fish and water we're just taking it on chin and like oh yeah we'll have another conversation about raising tax rates yeah thinking it's not crazy absolutely insane yeah you you never have and i think it's more politically palatable to have both sides talk about raising taxes even for republicans right um like in florida for example you know i i'm still 50 50 on the elimination of property taxes entirely because on the one hand And that would be wonderful to be able to actually own my stuff outright and not have it taxed. And if I fail to pay it, then I get seized by the state. But on the other hand, it would just be another thing that allows boomers to remain in their homes forever, you know, as if the tax code and the way we have responded to every crisis hasn't been favorable enough to them.

And so, you know, I think it's politically palatable to talk about taxing people more rather than cutting spending, because the former you have a scapegoat. You get to say, oh, you know, we're going to tax the rich if you're the left. And then if you're the right, you say we're going to tax, you know, NGOs or whatever. Instead, it's just so unfashionable to say, like, we're going to spend less money. You know, like if you think it's it's not something people even do in their daily lives. And so if it's not something people do in their daily lives and the average IQ of Americans is like 103 and falling, nobody can extrapolate outside themselves and conceptualize that the government is spending so much money. So like no one's going to vote for it, which is unfortunate. So I guess thank God for Bitcoin.

Yeah. When you mentioned like boomer boomers in their houses, I don't want to give them a break. But it's like. It's it's just fascinating to watch, because I think I tweeted out last week, we just bought a new house. or forever home first time homebuyer at 34 uh trying to bring down the median home a new home buyer age uh doing my part to to drop that down to the 30s from from the 50s the high 50s where it is now and uh at the time in late february i locked in a six seven five percent mortgage and i was like oh this is high this is crazy but now we're looking at mortgages like above seven percent

And I tweeted out like, hey, if we're going to have structurally higher rates for longer and going up, like maybe that was a good rate to get. The point being is like you have two parts of this real estate price equation, which is the interest rate and then the cost of the house. They're supposed to be somewhat inversely correlated. And maybe that's beginning to manifest with home prices falling in different parts of the country. But still, where home prices are is completely untenable for most people my age and your age who are coming up and looking to form families and buy homes. And I think one thing that Bitcoin has been very right about for many years now is the fact that you have this monetary premium sitting in real estate. And to your point about how do you solve that problem, you don't want to lower tax rates for boomers, but maybe we would feel more comfortable doing that if more people realize that houses aren't supposed to be piggy banks. You're supposed to have good money to save in.

And to your point at the beginning of the episode, like many people don't understand that money exists as a tool to solve the double coincidence of one's problems. And you should be able to store value in that. There's the monetary premium that exists in the economy should exist in arguably money alone. But can't today because of how much has been printed and how much they will continue to print because of the nature of fiat itself. Yeah, it's it's a really interesting dilemma. Like with real estate in particular, I don't want to see a crash in prices just because like my mom is coming up on retirement. She hasn't sold her home yet, but also witnessing the extreme appreciation of our house. I'll tell you, and I'll tell the viewers, she bought it back in 2004

for like 300 grand. 22 years later, it's worth 1.3 million. So $1 million worth of appreciation. She hasn't upgraded a thing. She's had a power wash maybe every couple of years. She keeps the in good shape but a million dollars worth of appreciation better than the S&P 500 or teetering on the S&P 500 over 22 years that's completely ridiculous um it's gotten to like comical levels of absurdity and granted like you know she lives in a really good Massachusetts suburb but even then like a 1.3 million dollar home for newlywed couple wants to move in so they could have their first kid not going to happen like in order for that to happen um uh you you need to be earning gosh like 300 grand 350 grand a year to qualify for a mortgage with 20 down at

1.3 million dollar house like um you would need to be making quite a lot of money and even then you'd be stretched very thin and so it's no wonder like it's the the money is the root cause of obviously you know there's a cultural battle but also the cultural rot is the result of time preferences um being uh being heightened and um you know that it all boils down to the money right people aren't having children because of the money people aren't getting married because of the money um only fans is a thing because of the money right it's like the number one one of the number one career choices it's it's just this this rot that goes beyond the physical and into the spiritual and it's just it's really really sad to see it is i mean and that's why i think

um staying on real estate we'll get into the cultural because i did have one uh one thing i want to bring up is what happened over the weekend but staying on real estate i mean you guys i think you guys are trying to play a part in this at horizon but i think to solve this real estate issue that exists where you have boomers keeping it as their piggy bank and using your mom as an example it's like yeah it's hard you don't want the the value of that home to to be cut in half or 75% because she's depending on that for her retirement and her quality of life. It's how do you begin to allow those homeowners to take some of that equity and put it into Bitcoin? Right. And I think that's something I've been, I've identified, I think,

over the last three years is if you're looking for productive creative and um i wouldn't say seamless but somewhat bold ways to deflate the monetary premium while saving those homeowners who are depending on it for a retirement it's figuring out a way to bridge bitcoin to the to real estate market in unique ways you guys are experimenting or you're doing that or horizon um i think bitcoin as collateral uh as a piece of the collateral package for mortgages is another way to do that um or you can have bitcoin upside alongside the value of your house and so if the house doesn't increase or god forbid decreases in value over the time you're living in there you still have the bitcoin kicker included as well and i think if you're thinking creatively

and boldly, this is something that I think Bill Pulte and others should seriously consider within the Trump administration is figuring out ways to rip off the regulatory red tape to make products like these more widely available. Couldn't agree more. It's like we need to en masse begin treating our homes as places to live rather than places to store monetary value. And with Horizon, like the trade is very simple. You know, people are already stretched thin with their mortgage payment, all the other payments they need to make, the upkeep, the maintenance, the property taxes. They don't have enough in the tank, generally speaking, for another loan against their property to go and buy Bitcoin. But what they can do is sell a chunk of their home

today in exchange for Bitcoin tax-free, hold the Bitcoin for the period they're living in the house and then swap it back whenever they move out of the house. It's a pretty understandable trade. And I think most Bitcoiners and even most people who are heavily allocated to equity indices, They would take it. You don't need to use Bitcoin with Horizon, but the product was structured specifically around Bitcoin. So I think it's one of the first steps in what I ultimately believe will be Bitcoin demonetizing real estate. I would love to see that happen. I think more young people... For a very long time, I said this on shows, the number one desired career for young people, apart from OnlyFans, was landlord. They wanted

to be a landlord, which is just disgusting. Like, oh, I want to own property and just be a rent seeker all day long. Like that's what I want to do. Ensure this, you know, it's, it's a great career aspiration. If you're in your thirties or forties or fifties, like, yeah, I'm going to buy a couple of properties, be a landlord, right. I'm going to maintain them, whatever, but just out of college, right. It tells, it's a very telling story at how money has sort of warped the mind. And, uh, you know, we, we want money right now today. We want to be maximally extractive, uh, instead of maximally producing and, um, how real estate is now viewed as a monetary asset first place to live second, you know, like I don't want that to be the case. I want to be able to

buy a home, um, you know, and help with my kids down payments. And then, you know, like all of these things, family formation, it's so critical for the survival of this country. Um, because the mass migration experiment has just failed miserably. Um, you know, it's so critical for the survival of this country, that home prices are attainable. The American dream is rooted in home ownership, not because it's the best financial asset, but because you want to plant roots. As an American, we have a fundamental urge to want to plant roots, to want to get married, to want to have as many children as God wills. But we cannot do that if there are no places where we can plant roots, or if you have to live with roommates because it's so prohibitively expensive,

even rent on your own. So home ownership is important. Getting home prices down is important. bitcoin being a superior monetary asset to real estate helps fix that at the margin and where it doesn't fix that owning bitcoin can make it easier to own a home sooner in your life yeah yeah we need to create those bridges i think uh it's extremely important and going to the i mean transitioning to the cultural route which i think the inability to form a family right now due to many people will say i think the economics the economic reality of of modernity is certainly contributing factor others will point at the emergence of cell phones and smartphones specifically and say that the addiction to the screens is is pushing uh or reducing the the

amount of sort of natural interactions people have in the wild with the uh with the opposite sex and And that's contributing to it. But I think I think economics plays a big role in it. The other one is culturally. I think if you have a fiat based high velocity trash economy, it's going to be reflected in the culture, which will ultimately result in less people engaging in the low time preference activity of finding a wife or a husband that they plan on spending the rest of their life with and building, building a family. So these things begin to permeate into the culture and manifest in many different ways. Obviously, OnlyFans, dating app culture is a big one, streaming culture, gambling addiction. And I said I wanted to bring it up. There's a whole other sort of aspect of this, too, which I think is this self-absorbed optimizer thing, which i saw that you uh responded to the tweet i sent out over the weekend uh quote tweeting

uh the the podcast host of uh what is it we study billionaires or we study millionaires oh no that's preston bish's show the diary yeah diary of ceo yes i had never heard about until like a couple of months ago and apparently he's the second largest podcaster in the world really strange but he was uh and he was talking with chris williams who i've actually met i liked my interaction with chris but uh and uh he's famously been an optimizer and has not settled down and is always tinkering with with parts of his daily routine to optimize his health and longevity uh and i guess the um diary of the ceo host was saying that he he stopped drinking which i think many people saw that tweet and say hey don't hate on people for not drinking like hey

wasn't hating on him for not drinking but he was saying that he had three glasses of wine and couldn't podcast for for three days and it was like okay um talking about the manifestation of this cultural rot stemming from the fiat system like this i think a lot of that optimizing culture is uh very vain and sort of singularly focused on uh the individual in a way that's like How could you ever take the time to start a family if you're focused on checking your whoop, your whoop band on an hour to hour basis? Yeah. Not describing it well, but it's very self-absorbed in a way.

No, no, it's true. It all boils down to vanity and pride. And it's obviously it's fiat, but it's also it's godlessness. And it's a it's sort of what social media has done to our brains, because in a way, we're not necessarily serving a creator higher than ourselves we're serving ourselves we want the instagram page to look great we want you know to have x amount of followers we want to be able to have uh you know a high body count or whatever right as disgusting as it sounds it's like those are the things that we're optimizing for and in a world where you are living for the

the weekend you're living between netflix episodes you're living between clubbing um like why on earth would you seek something higher than yourself right if you're worshiping yourself if vanity is all you are why on earth would you start a family right that detracts from vanity and it's it's almost like you know in the same way that a lot of the boomer cohort not to rag on all boomers we love larry lapard and gary leland and others and but you know largely the boomer cohort is sort of the first generation in american history that wants their children to be worse off than they are um if that is the case for boomers then like for gen z i would say it's the first generation largely unfortunately and even millennials um who aren't even concerned about

having children right they simply want to live a good life to live it for instagram regardless of whether or not they're alone at their deathbed and it's just devastating to see and all of it's downstream from from fiat money cultural rot spiritual rot um yeah it's tough to see it is it makes you wonder like where are we just gonna go back to destiny we're just destined to be this bridge generation maybe millennials gen z uh that goes through the uh the hard times if you will and like to that point like when when does the the pendulum swing back towards uh getting back to virtue and sound money and low time preference and it's funny i think i think that was very good response to the cultural rod it's like yes there are a ton of godless people that

are living for themselves and it's funny how everything seems connected with particularly like sound money time preference and doing something because it's uh for for god and not yourself or it's for something that's bigger than yourself amen i mean it's it's all connected it's all interconnected and like we are particularly as christians right like you know we are called to live for christ and in all that we do like we are we are called to reject our flesh and you know it's one of the reasons like not to get not to get into this but it's like it's one of the very few reasons why you know christianity is the only true religion like the only true religion because every other religion promises that hey if you follow our tenets in the

afterlife you're going to get all of your fleshly desires you're going to get 70 wives or you're going to get your own planet with 70 wives or whatever crazy thing they promise you but with christianity it says like you need to reject yourself every day of your life and then in exchange you get eternity with god that's it you don't get all of your carnal desires after putting all of your carnal desires off you get eternity with god and so when you have that mental reframe all of a sudden like it doesn't matt playing video games doesn't interest me and gambling doesn't interest me like building something that lasts beyond myself interest me planting that tree outside that i'm never going to get to put a tire swing on interest me you know um and like the

great men of civilization understood that like the the of of civilizations past they understood that that the only way to live was living a life to glorify something higher than yourself to glorify god um and we've lost that completely and it's it's upstream of everything we're experiencing now what do you think about this uh i mean he had i think new york times maybe not new york time the yorker i think was writing about it seems to be uh i don't want to call it a fad but it seems to be in vogue to to be converting to christianity catholicism i think is having a pretty pretty significant rise in conversions and uh i worry that that um i think a lot of it most of it is genuine but you can see that there is some sort of cultural uh bandwagoning going on too

where people are doing it because it seems to be the cool thing to do, which would be probably the most disgusting way to convert it. It's very Calvinist, right? Like the school of Christianity that basically says like, oh, you know, I'm saved by Christ. I don't need to do anything, right? Like I already have eternity because Jesus died for my sins. Therefore, I can live however I want.

I'm going to wear Christianity as a skin suit. I'm going to get baptized and put it on Instagram, you know? Um, like ultimately I would wager that there is a decent amount of that, but the optimist in me, like the same version of me that knows for a fact, Bitcoin is going to succeed one way or another wants to believe that hopefully the lion's share of the younger people like myself that are converting and expressing that they're, you know, born again, Christians, um, are being genuine about it, you know? Um, because ultimately like the wheat will be separated from the chaff, right?

And like, when you arrive at the pearly gates, you'll have to explain to Jesus, like he'll have all of the receipts. Um, so it's very, very important that, that people be earnest. But I think as with any major cultural shift, there are definitely people doing it just, just for appearances sake. Yeah, no. And I think, I mean, as a, as a cradle Catholic who, who strayed in my late teens, early twenties, I think COVID, uh, I mean, for me personally, like made it very clear, like,

oh my guy this is i've got to submit myself to christ again or not again but recommit myself to that because there is evil in this world i think a lot of people i mean i know for a fact having had conversations with people who were completely non-religious secular even overtly atheists who sort of woke up to the fact that evil exists and maybe it's time to um maybe it's time to look into this, this Jesus thing. Yeah. There's a, there's a funny, not a funny quote, but I think it was a tweet from like 2016. There's a tweet for everything. But I think that the way that what you just said is summed up was, um, you know, like someone saying I've never been a religious man. Like I've never been Christian, but if the opposite is, you know, evil, demonic

people who want to castrate my children and turn my kid gay and all this other stuff, then maybe god isn't so bad you know yeah it's the uh the stranger things that guy lifting weights and smoking a cigarette that means i didn't know we were going to end it here but i'm happy we did what um what should people be on the lookout for obviously in the next couple weeks hopefully an end to the to the war in iran uh and if not prepare for for some fireworks on the back end of the year. It's a good way of putting it. Yeah, no, in the next couple of weeks, be on the lookout for an actual peace deal, not just a Sunday night. Hey, we're preparing one. So markets open green on Monday. Because if a peace deal is signed, if we actually get a ceasefire and price inflation

likely stands to come down as a result, Bitcoin likely won't make another leg lower. It's likely putting its cycle low. And then in that case, the bull market will have started all the way back in february early february when we bottomed at 60k however if the war rages on throughout the summer be prepared right um you know that said like on the other end of that if we do wind up getting inflationary recession like you and i both know huge monetary response will come as a result massive monetary response so like the i believe 12 months from now bitcoin is much higher than it is currently i think bitcoin easily is an all-time high the only question is between now then will we see a demand destruction event and a dash to cash and a massive sell-off across

everything first and that question will be answered uh based on whether or not the war ends over the next six weeks so that's what i would uh that's what i would leave viewers with awesome and where uh can those who are so motivated find out more about what you're doing on a day-to-day basis absolutely so if this is a collaboration you can click right down there click joe consorti hit subscribe or if it's not you can search joe consorti right up there in the search bar if you're watching on youtube um or just uh on x google joe consorti i'm all over the place sweet this will be a collaboration so we'll make it easy for you freaks perfect thanks party peace and love thank you for listening to this episode of tftc if you've made it this far i

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