TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #783: Trump Is Throwing The Midterms with Mark Mitchell

Starting point is 00:00:00 You've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free. When you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts. So it's all acting like safe haven. I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. i mean that's part of the bull case for bitcoin if you're not paying attention you probably should be probably should be mark welcome back to the show yeah great to be here been a long time it's been a long time almost uh almost exactly nine months and a lot has changed since then last time

Starting point is 00:00:46 you were on this show you were still the independent independent voice inside rasmussen uh and since then you've started the honest poll things have changed and uh i think that story behind your departure from rasmussen and starting the honest poll was is a good place to start here yeah sure and what's cool too is that we were talking last time right after i went to the white house and in that trip i literally said like sir you're gonna lose the midterm elections unless you do this and he didn't do this and so now it looks like they're gonna lose the midterm elections and this was economic populism and visible reform of the government and it's like yeah, you could do Iran too, but give the people what they wanted. And we're not really getting

Starting point is 00:01:31 it. We're literally just getting basically Iran. And you can argue about all these other things that Trump's doing. And yeah, he's probably, he's making progress on a lot of this stuff, but it's leadership and it's about how he's communicating it. And he's just like not doing it well. So if people aren't familiar with me or with polling, the way it's supposed to work in the way that George Gallup created the industry is that he thought that because of how big the country was and how diverse the people were, when you send elected representatives to D.C., the people don't get represented. And so they need an advocate, somebody who measures what the people think and tells the people in D.C. that they're doing it wrong. And what really

Starting point is 00:02:12 has happened is pretty much everybody in the polling industry has either been co-opted by large left-wing media conglomerates or by academia or by dark money leftist NGOs on the left or on the right what happens is a lot of these people will fix the numbers in order to get a paycheck to give large organizations for instance like the American Beverage Association the numbers that they need to show for instance that Americans do like sugary beverages on snap and obviously the idea is preposterous. I went into the field and found the exact opposite, but I didn't get paid $2 million for that. And so independent means I'm not taking money from either side. And I can be political, but I'm trying to do it to represent the American people. And Trump's 2024 agenda

Starting point is 00:03:00 objectively hid most of what people wanted. And people think they're not getting it right now. And so when that, in my opinion, was endangered for the people, what they had voted for, I'm going to be very vocal because, hey, we have this huge coalition. Everybody wanted these mass deportations. They want a middle-class wage-focused economy. They don't want ridiculous nosebleed grocery and house prices. Stay on that target. And they didn't. And so I got very loud and vocal. And long story short, inside Rasmussen, they had made a new friend, a couple of friends. There was a polling conglomerate that we built. That polling conglomerate has its foot very deeply in the political action committee business on the right. And in that business, if you want to check

Starting point is 00:03:49 from a Trump-friendly donor or from somebody affiliated with the RNC, you can't criticize Trump. It's not good. They don't want that. And so I was told that my criticism of Trump was hurting the business. And quite frankly, I don't care. I'm here for the people. And so I was silenced for a few months. And so I worked on my new business. And so as of two months ago, I left Rasmussen Reports and founded the Honest Poll. When I was ready just to put a cherry on top, I went back on Twitter and was, Carolyn Leavitt had said something stupid. So I'm like, you know, I forget what it was.

Starting point is 00:04:20 So, you know, I went out and criticized Trump again visibly. And they literally like fired me for criticizing Trump. So that is one of the biggest names in independent polling who currently doesn't even have a pollster. And, you know, the moolah, I guess, was more important to them. Yeah, it's insane. how partisan politics can affect every corner of the economy and i think polling trying to be this this sort of sober non-partisan uh vehicle for people to get actual signal is one of the last bastions and so good on you for not um not caving to to the money grab and starting the honest poll

Starting point is 00:05:04 what is what is the plan with the honest poll i mean literally just what i was doing before we're going to do probably monthly tracking polls to start and there's going to be a lot of good sentiment stuff in there. And usually most of these pollsters won't do sentiment work because they don't care like what the people think unless that they're getting a paycheck to misrepresent it or when they're trying to, you know, what happens on the right a lot is that just like a hooker on the street, they try and wear a really short skirt to show that they can do some good tricks. And so when the Iran strike started, you saw a lot of right wing pollsters come out and basically do push poll questions to show that the strike was popular well if you just ask the question straight

Starting point is 00:05:42 up should we strike iran or not it is not popular it was like 37 but nobody would do that right and so or trump wouldn't listen to a mainstream media pollster who's actually doing the legitimate question he wants to hear it from insider advantage and and they'll pad the question with like hey trump's going to take out the ayatollah and get rid of all of iran's nuclear programs with a wave of magic wand you support or oppose it's like like what do you think people are going to say right but that's not helpful and so in i i i don't know what happened behind closed doors with trump and the iran strike i can only conjecture that it was probably people like lindsey graham who were very close to him when i went to talk to trump in november for 45 minutes

Starting point is 00:06:23 about how he should win the midterms he spent 15 minutes of it talking about lindsey graham so i think he was a very influential character there but he was obviously selectively being shown polling to paint a bad picture like hey you'll be a hero if you take out the nuclear program and it's like yeah people don't like iranians to have a nuke yet it like ranks like number 30 on their list of priorities and so when you take their number one priority and put it on the back burner and then take number 30 and spend the most important part of your presidency on it like obviously there's going to be a strong reaction. Yeah. And speaking of top priorities that are actually on the minds of American citizens, I think it's squarely the economy,

Starting point is 00:07:05 inflation, jobs, immigration. I mean, that's just reading the Twitter sentiment. It seems well, institutional trust is one that people don't talk about, but was pretty high because we got Trump 2024 because of a lot of statist overreach under the Biden administration. And we can't forget that our elections are retarded. Our federal government doesn't represent the people. We're an occupied nation. And I think in some fundamental way, people understand that because with questions like, are you more concerned about foreign or domestic terrorism? They're more concerned about domestic terrorism. 72% of America thinks we're living in a police state so it's like you know this elite worship golden age dow 50 000 the people are going to

Starting point is 00:07:51 see through like they don't buy that anymore because it's existential now yeah i mean i mean you see the big backlash with flock cameras now and the push to to ensure that they they get widely installed and distributed throughout the country and they're not reliable at all uh since we last talked i think nick shirley's investigative journalism and many others uh shout out to steve robinson the main wire up in maine highlighting the the medicare fraud that is that is rampant throughout the country um and you look at the ai wave too and i think that's a very nuanced discussion i'm actually involved in in some companies helping helping bring data centers to um to to the united states and there is a lot of misinformation around it but the

Starting point is 00:08:43 narrative is is it's a strong narrative because people say hey you have dario modi and sam altman saying we're going to take all the jobs and um we're going to become the richest men in the world and at the same time you have the administration pushing forward with that which i think they should i think the narrative needs to change but then on top of that like prioritizing iran um nuking the the oil markets uh headed in the summer and which we haven't even really seen no yeah no it's gonna get wild well and that's and the other the just the to end on a call back to the last time we talked you said if trump doesn't do these things you're going to see socialism rise in the united states and we've seen madami and you've seen all these democratic

Starting point is 00:09:27 socialist winning primaries across the country and it seems like gen z is stuck between a rock and a hard place and saying well uh we thought trump was going to be anti-foreign wars and pro economy really secure the border uh and and focus on the domestic economy and that that's not uh doesn't seem to be where the focus is and therefore socialism is on the rise here yeah Yeah, 100 percent. We're going to see a lot of political turmoil. And it's so predictable because the Republican Party not only is incapable of understanding the change that's coming, they are directly directly incentivized not to. And so on the Republican Party, power is mostly about controlling the allocation of donor bucks. And so if you're one of these

Starting point is 00:10:17 people high up at a political action committee and you know people who know people or you can get no-bid contracts, or you can get Trump a pardon. It's all about selling this access, monetizing your position. And so any change to the status quo is dangerous to these people's bottom line, right? So if you say to them, listen, the young people are not really ideological. So if you just pound your chest about capitalism and conservatism, they're just going to ignore you because it's stupid and they know it's failed. I've been saying this for probably years now, and it's like that's what they're doing now so it's like they came in on a massive populist wave a reform massive popular and let's be very clear with a mandate for austerity like that's pretty

Starting point is 00:10:59 ridiculous like people wanted to see the deficit cut that is wild and it's like okay you had doge maybe all the republicans in dc didn't vote for or want doge but you had it and it was the most popular thing Republicans had ever done with under 40 voters. Trump had like a 60% approval rating as a Doge. And Doge could have come in and cut a trillion out of the deficit, and it mostly would have been fraud. And, you know, they got sent packing. And it's because they endangered the Republican status quo in Washington, D.C. There were a lot of corporations that were getting these no-bid contracts or profiting off of Medicare waste or all these things. And these people own these senators they own these senators and congressmen like pharma's got money into everybody

Starting point is 00:11:45 apac's got money into everybody um like is like that's just how it works and so they would rather lose and then draw a perimeter around the parts of the party they want to keep and that's what they're doing right now so and you can see like these people who are probably just apparatchiks for intel or for foreign interests who are like just take a nancy mace so she seems based when you hear what she talks about, but if you follow what she does, she just takes one issue and just pounds on it. So during the Biden administration, she was just pounding on the trans issue and it's like, okay, fine. Is that our biggest problem? Like, no, but fine. We get it. Right. And so now what is she pounding on? She's like, well, we all have to hate Muslims. They're terrible. Let's kill

Starting point is 00:12:26 them all. Let's get them all out of the country. And it's like, for God's sakes, are we really going to regress back to the party of George W. Bush? Is that like where the conservative of movement that was populist just two years ago remember like dearborn muslims like in part voted for trump and helped him get over the finish line like are we going to forget muslims for trump and it's like fine i don't like radical islam americans are afraid of radical islam but are you a constitutional conservative because if they're a citizen they have natural light rights from god you know what i mean so like what are we even doing here they don't care they'll talk about conservatism. They're not conservative. They're like neoconservative, which is an

Starting point is 00:13:04 entirely different thing. And that's what I guess the Republican Party right now is throwing a temper tantrum to force everybody on the internet as part of this broad coalition. Like Trump got a lot of under 40 socialist votes. He did. And so now they're saying, well, socialists all want to put you into a ditch. And the under 40 socialist Trump voters, like, like, like, no, I just want to be able to afford food and get a job and you give my job to Indians. So that's what's going to happen is like, Republicans are trying to lose beautifully right now, so that they can wrestle control of the party back from essentially not even Trump anymore. Just the people that gave the Republicans the biggest coalition they've ever had. And they're

Starting point is 00:13:48 doing it by just this massive circular firing squad. You know, I come up on Twitter every day, it's like oh look another podcaster from podcast kassistan getting money from qatar it's like you know like it's not a winning message it's just do you want to clear the air here are you getting money from guitar no i'm getting money from no one i have to go out and kill what i eat or eat what i kill right now so no you know and when i'm up and running most of my money will be coming from people through like subscriptions and youtube and stuff like that so awesome well i mean to your point about austerity people welcoming it i was one of those people and i still welcome it but then you juxtapose that with the treasury's july statement where

Starting point is 00:14:29 it had a 334 billion in receipts 766.3 in outlays and a 432.3 billion deficit national debt's about to cross 40 trillion uh i think officially officially now like on a trailing 12-month basis uh interest expense on the debt surpasses health care and and defense spending and this is a runaway train that again to your point austerity is what people wanted and i think a lot of americans intuitively understand that this runaway debt train is having some consequence on the price of goods at the end of the day combined with the immigration and the h-1b stuff and they're not seeing anything done about it yeah no 100 like i like high interest rates in a balanced economy that where we have like a relatively compressed wealth equality

Starting point is 00:15:21 curve so people can save money and earn interest and stuff like that but when you have to finance 40 trillion in debt with a 10-year treasury approaching five percent and when we have a repressive housing market because mortgage rates are astronomical it's like we're not like there's no like i don't i mean maybe like there's two ways out of this essentially is hyperinflation or we just like absolutely get completely crushed and it's like okay we're gonna add another 500 billion to the annual deficit to expand defense spending uh one could argue if that's reactive to the iran strike that we were woefully unprepared for or whether it's forward looking for when the democrat bolsheviks get in charge to expand their expansionist you know nato war against

Starting point is 00:16:10 russia it's like we're the pendulum is swinging towards war is what it looks like right i mean and we can all throw temper tantrums but right now we don't control the government and that's what the government seems to want and it's you know people who seem to agree that re-industrialization is better for america well that's that's a good way to get it our debt burden is too high well that's a good way to get it you know they have been sort of like improving the ability of the government to call up the draft so uh you know like we did changes to the draft over a year before pearl harbor was bombed so we saw world war ii coming and we're preparing for it essentially and uh i don't know like i don't want to be conspiratorial but i look at the way that

Starting point is 00:17:02 nato people have been talking about and here's the other thing like does nato even stand for anything anymore but who knows so a lot of change coming not only that but bringing the ai subject back into this i mean it is pretty clear that the trump administration has made it a matter of national security and really pitted the united states versus china you have this frontier closed source model in the united states you have that race and then you have the open weight model out china in that race and it seems pretty clear that the the setting the scene is being set for a confrontation with china over over ai among other things not that won't be good i mean there are nuclear power with icbm capability and and we're a lot less better off than we were a year

Starting point is 00:17:54 ago to actually like engage with them and i think we've just learned that our entire military doctrine you know doesn't really work right like in this new environment like we've put a lot of money and thought and time into building these massive platforms that are very difficult to defend from low-cost munitions that china is very well equipped to manufacture a bunch of and we are not yeah we've fully transitioned into the age of the sovereign individual where the the leverage on power is completely shifted towards those low cost munitions particularly drone warfare i don't think the american public is aware of just how drastically modern warfare has shifted in the last two years with drones specifically yeah listen america's hard to invade but if i was

Starting point is 00:18:43 forced to pick which amphibious vehicle to be on as part of an amphibious landing i would probably prefer to be on a chinese landing ship going after america and not vice versa but you know what i mean i'm just saying like just based on the strategic forethought and the i mean they're gonna like how can you i mean they're part of the reason iran is doing well are they not like this is they they've been preparing for war against america for a long time and they're using real time satellite intel and they're sharing targets and they're probably sharing technology as well and we just give ours to everybody else you know it's like yeah well talking about midterms what's what is the state of of these races across across the country right now how's it looking

Starting point is 00:19:31 so i would say the book ends right now for the national house popular vote The last time I did the generic ballot was like really right after they got that deal with Iran and right around July 4th. So I think it was a high. It was Democrat plus four. I think a case could be made back then. It should have probably been about Democrat plus six. And then if you look at like Rich Barris and Emerson, and I'll be doing another one soon. If you look at good pollsters like Rich Barris and Emerson, they have something more like Democrat plus 10 or plus 11.

Starting point is 00:20:03 And so those are, I think, the bookends. And if you compare it to other races like 2018, it's kind of similar. Now, maybe the race will tighten or maybe it's not. And we can talk about like cases of why that might happen. But this feels very similar to like a 2006 where you had a second term Republican president, you know, mired in an unpopular war. And a case could be made that this war is less popular than 2003 was. Now, obviously, everybody hated Bush by 2008. but they they asked for that war they wanted that war america wanted that war and they did not want

Starting point is 00:20:39 this one so it's like you layer that on top of just the historical trend that democrats should pick up both houses looking at you know 70 80 percent of the last races where the opposite party was in power it looks like a pretty good chance at a democrat house pickup and the betting markets agree at about 85% DEM pickup. So now there's a lot of, again, a lot of things that could happen. There are positive or negative exogenous shocks. We could have the best economic numbers we've ever seen over the next two or three months. I think that's an uphill fight. I don't think that's going to happen. People would need to feel the economy getting better. It's not going to happen. We would need the biggest 4D chess, big brain exit from

Starting point is 00:21:23 Iran. I don't think that's going to happen. You could say, all right, well, maybe Iran strikes america i don't think they're stupid enough to do that maybe there's false flag or a gulf of tonkin incident like maybe uh maybe the democrats do something like stupid but i don't think they're going to and so i also everybody says oh look the rnc is out raising the dnc and it's like okay but you guys forget they put most of their money through act blue so they're going to have a huge war chest so it's like the best case scenario i think for republicans is because of these changes to the electoral map is that these seats are more entrenched than they usually are and that they could limit any loss and maybe eke out a slight majority i think that's probably the best

Starting point is 00:22:06 reasonable case scenario the worst case scenario is like a 2006 where the republicans lose like 30 seats and it could be worse than that by the time we get there because as you and i both know this iran thing is only getting worse and um iran has every incentive to make it worse between now and november because not only does trump have an election but pp netanyahu has an election you better believe they want that guy gone so uh and then on the senate you know it's like i care everybody's going to focus on these senate races and uh at the end of the day the republicans don't even have the senate now so it's like why are we even talking about this right uh you know okay maybe they eke out a one seat majority but they're not going to get any legislation through

Starting point is 00:22:48 in the 120th congress so like trump's time as a influential leader of america is on the decline i think by november it'll be like okay it's not as worse it's not as bad as it could have been maybe we wish we had done better but trump's done like his political capital will be over democrats will have congress and will probably be picking apart his administration with show trials over the egregious things that are happening pardon sales and antitrust and no bid contracts and they have a lot of that so they've been preparing for this like they've been watching the trump administration very closely and it's like if you go work in the trump administration you have to know that the democrats will come after you and the republicans

Starting point is 00:23:33 are not coming after the democrats so uh yeah you know like weird things that you would expect to like you would expect to see at this point in trump's term more turnover people leaving people burned out new people coming in and they're not and i cynically conjecture that it's like okay they have to stick around for the pardons like it it might get that bad so it's like we started the conversation it's gonna get wild i just i like i don't people can call me a doomer but i don't see any like what is going to motivate this broad coalition of people that trump built because the republican like mitt romney voter is not big enough to compete with your democrat electorate now who obviously a lot of it is just ballot harvested mail-in ballots obviously but again

Starting point is 00:24:25 we didn't go after that and they turn out they will turn out 70 80 90 percent of their presidential turnout republicans will get a much smaller number as we've seen in all these special elections What's up, freaks? This rep was brought to you by our good friends at BitKey. Got the new BitKey here with the screen. We've been talking for 17 years, not your keys, not your coins. How do you make that as easy as possible? And that is what BitKey is bringing to the market.

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Starting point is 00:26:19 access liquidity, it's hard to beat. On top of this, guess what? You also get 2% unlimited cash back every time you use the card spend fiat keep your bitcoin that's the whole game if you've been stacking for years and need liquidity without triggering a taxable event this is worth a serious look go to aven.com slash bitcoin that's aven.com slash bitcoin check it out it seems like they've been too slow to act on this i mean i think there was clips going around the cnn uh polling guy or their their election night analyst and he was exacerbated because i think he realized in real time that there was like mail-in ballot harvesting going on we saw the california merrill or the los angeles merrill race with spencer pratt seems like he's posturing that

Starting point is 00:27:07 maybe there is some legal action in motion but then you have things like the maha mandate that the trump administration had like they did do the reduced vaccine schedule thing last week which i was very happy to see but again and who knows like you always hear that it's really hard to get things done in dc and it moves very slow um but i think considering everything you just said like moving slow is not an option if you want to secure the house this was a tenuous toehold that the trump mega coalition had over american politics it should have been you know they like they treated it i'm trying to use an analogy they treated it like a marriage with the american people when in reality it was just a first date that the people didn't even really want that much

Starting point is 00:27:52 they just needed it they're like oh my friend guilted me into this you know or whatever it's like oh i had a really bad date with biden so i'll try this other guy and it's a bit it's been a bad first date and it's like we america again is making votes of existential need in 2024 not the same thing as 2016 2016 is like oh god sick of this retarded two-party politics it doesn't serve us let's just try an outsider and see what happens like that was 2016 because they didn't like hillary clinton was just more of the same right 2024 is dear god we need somebody to fix it and all we have is donald trump get in there and fix it and so like i don't want to set the bar like again this is a lot of this is about messaging yes he can't come in and snap his fingers and

Starting point is 00:28:42 deport 10 million people but it is a again a wartime economic and political wartime and a wartime leader is very different than a peacetime leader a wartime leader has to come in and have like laser focused strategic vision on who the enemy is what the battlefield is and how that battle is being fought and trump has just objectively not been doing that oh i love the dows at 50 000 we're in a golden age don't talk to me about affordability we need 600 000 chinese visas and what's wrong with the h-1bs we don't have american talent here just like stuff like that 50-year mortgages and it's like we're gonna like destroy civilization tonight and it's like all of this is just and like maybe like i don't think he's the same trump as 2016. i think 2016

Starting point is 00:29:29 trump would have been like what you know he was a little bit better at his twitter game back he was a king of twitter like he understood interaction with people in the feedback loop and this is just like slop and it's like again you can't go on your first date and and just like put out slop like that you know and it's like that's and that's what it and america is reacting exactly like you'd expect and the polling shows it i mean we had uh 50 we asked the question has trump kept his promises more or less than recent presidents and only 33 said more 50 said less so that's a pretty resounding defeat there um but do i have that right 50 less 33 more so only one in three americans are like yep trump has fulfilled his promises and again obviously you can't fix it all

Starting point is 00:30:19 but it's like how you talk about our problems and how you frame everything and we could have done iran with no problems if we had if we had been like focused on increasing wages talking about reducing legal and illegal immigration as a means to increase job availability when and this is why i love what tucker's doing so like in retrospect it would seem that a lot of the things that trump ran on didn't really have a moral core so for instance why are we going to mass deport everybody is it because we're racist or is it because of rule of law or fairness or is it because we're putting american workers first like what's the the moral or the value behind why we have this policy and the voters said well trump wants to deport everybody because he cares about

Starting point is 00:31:10 us and he wants us to have jobs and wages and then when trump comes out and says well you know some of these illegals work pretty hard everybody's like well wait we're there's a disconnect like we he does he did this for a different reason than we thought and then what you're left with is he probably just said it to get elected and so i mean look again his numbers might come up a little bit republicans might perform better than people expect but they've been underperforming the polling in every race including the primaries the turnout for republicans is super low it's off the charts for democrats so the most likely scenario is a pretty big loss and uh you know you know people like us have been screaming about this for over a year now and there's been no

Starting point is 00:31:52 change yeah and i think you've been beating the drum on x and other platforms too about how they can fix the narrative i think you just said it with the the moral case for immigration policy specifically but other things i think you've been passionate about are like fair capitalism uh square tier square deal now like what is what does that look like what do you think the american people want on the economic side what would a platform that could win actually sound like they want a champion who will make America more fair. And so we can talk about the American dream and what that means. But one of the biggest questions I've been tracking is that only 35% of Americans say today's children will be better off than their parents. So this aspect of

Starting point is 00:32:35 opportunity and upward mobility is really what like America has offered. And it's gone. Like it's objectively gone for most people, especially young people. And everybody knows it. And at the same time, you have this frustration and anger at the system. 72% of Americans are angry at the level of waste, fraud, and abuse. Over 70% think politicians are profiting ill-gotten gains from their positions. And then what nobody talks about is you also have a very, very anti-corporate view where over 80% think that big tech needs to be reined in because of their excess, stuff like that. And the under 40 voters specifically, even though, and again, people say, oh, socialism's popular. Well, socialism's becoming more popular and socialism wins with under 40 voters now,

Starting point is 00:33:27 but it's still not popular. It's still only in the 40s. And everybody acknowledges that we do have a capitalistic system. So I think they want capitalism to work, but it's like under both parties, it clearly doesn't. And there's this aspect of oligarchy. Now, people don't know what an oligarchy is, but I think what we're seeing is just subtextually, they understand they're getting screwed by the system. And those questions have strong majorities, like it was 65, 67, something like that. Percent of the under 40 voters think that the economy is unfair to young people. And only like 20, 30% disagree. So it's over two to one, right? So these are very strong majorities. And, you know, again, they overwhelmingly support socialistic policies,

Starting point is 00:34:08 like nationalizing major industries that's like a three out of four position for under 40 trump voters and uh excess wealth confiscation like that's a almost 60 position of under 40 trump voters so you look at this like what we really have is this like boomer capitalism reaganomics trickle down you know let's cut the capital gains tax and let's cut corporate taxes is. And maybe you'll get some scraps. And the problem is that this plutocracy, this oligarchy has become so entrenched on both parties that Americans aren't feeling that. They're not getting that anymore. With the inflation, they're just absolutely getting crushed in this K-shaped economy. And they'll selectively pick a good economic number without looking at the fact that

Starting point is 00:34:58 consumer confidence is like the lowest it's been in decades. Because nobody wants to address the fact that the system is failing people and the people are screaming that the system is failing them. And so, again, I think like none of what we're dealing with is new. I mean, they had the Gilded Age. They had a big problem with monopolies in the late 1800s. And then you had people like Teddy Roosevelt come in with very progressive economic policies. He was a capitalist. He wasn't a socialist, but he wanted capitalism to work for everybody. And so he would go after these businesses and break up these monopolies and call them out. And Trump invites him over to Mar-a-Lago to wine and dine. Like Zuckerberg stole your election, bro. And the first thing you did

Starting point is 00:35:39 after you got inaugurated was invite him over to your house and wine and dine him. Like what are the American people even supposed to do with that? Because they knew it was Zuckerberg. They didn't like Zuckerbucks. It was like almost 80 to 20. They were against Zuckerberg specifically putting money into elections. So, you know, I've heard Trump talk about how he wants to be on Mount Rushmore, but Teddy Roosevelt is there for a reason. It's because he acknowledged that there was a problem that the American people were suffering. And it was only just because the system wasn't fair to them. And he tried to make it more fair to them. And part of the stuff he did, part of the stuff that FDR did, obviously World War II and us being, again, becoming a major

Starting point is 00:36:21 industrial player like obviously they had a part to do with it but most conservatives will remember the 50s 60s and 70s fondly especially for the like ability for a single income janitor to have a house and five kids right and and live a comfortable life but it's like you can't forget that we had like a 90 upper income tax bracket you know what i mean like we were confiscating wealth from billionaires then when we were supporting unions and had very pro-worker policies and our system is now incapable of that like we had a chance we can't do it and so somebody's going to and i hope it's jd he talks like that but whoever does this is going to be going up against just the absolute i mean we're pretty close to like this like state corporate

Starting point is 00:37:08 fascism like we're getting there it's there it's there that's what he said oligarchy it's like corporate socialism like you have the trump administration taking equity stakes in a bunch these companies and people like rah-rah re-industrialization support it's like no like this is that i mean that's how muslimy defied fascism was the combination of corporate and state power uh working tightly together and i i don't think trump is a fat like and i think the idea that trump is a fascist is like a weak meme i just think the system is set up and has sort of embedded so like i tweeted this out the other day like because people were complaining There were some socialists, like, he sent a tweet out of a headline about healthcare, like, 95% of American males don't go to the doctor more than once every five years because it's too expensive.

Starting point is 00:38:01 And he's like, what stage of capitalism is this? It's like, that's not capitalism. That is corporate fascism, where healthcare is the most heavily subsidized industry in the country, and it's expensive because it has socialist tendencies. And there's this complete misunderstanding of the fact that we don't live in a capitalist society and haven't for a while. They're capitalist sort of variables and aspects of the economy that we live in. You can go spin up an LLC. You have an idea to start a business. You can do that. But once you get to economies of scale, like the bailout culture and the favoritism that exists is very socialist. And it's very clear to me, but the American public doesn't understand this.

Starting point is 00:38:41 no i we need people that are really pushing the edge of thought in dc and unfortunately like i said all the money goes towards maintaining the status quo like for instance i don't think we should have publicly traded equities i just don't i think it's very bad it's very short-sighted it drives a lot of like risk avert like you know risk on behavior it incentivizes corporations to do really stupid things like the whole cracker barrel redesign they did was you know financialization essentially they need they wanted to borrow a bunch of money and uh and what are they like destroyed the business right and it's like okay well if that was a privately held company with people who had a long-term view they wouldn't have completely destroyed their brand image and

Starting point is 00:39:24 piss off all their customers like that and i think that happens in financial services i think it happens in like literally every industry they're basically gotta get that stock bump like this quarter now we're probably past that now because everybody's stock just goes up right but like we have this disgusting melange of all this stuff corporate socialism socialized losses there is some fascism like you know people like you said people call trump a fascist it's lazy but like let's not forget that under trump we shut down all the small businesses in america and then worshiped walmart like what right and that was very brutal like a lot of people lost their jobs from small employers it was a tough time and uh objectively because of all the asset

Starting point is 00:40:08 money that got put into the fine the the industry those big corporations all did much much much better and we've continued to see wage stagnation since then and you know obviously the foreign-born worker population did a lot better postcovid than so you know it's just it's it's our enemy and nobody is willing to call that out because they need the donor bucks even on the democrat side they love big corporations yeah it's disgusting i mean you're talking about like 1950s 60s america and that's another meme that's emerged over the years but i think it re-emerged over the last week which is wages priced in gold for 1950s minimum wage workers and they're making more than like a middle class american today purchasing power yeah i like

Starting point is 00:40:57 but we all know this is the case though it's because these people still live in our communities Like, you could, like, drop out of high school and get a salaried job as a janitor with benefits and then retire and live in the same town with a house and, like, a single income. Like, it was possible. Like, people did that. And now it's like, okay, well, you're going to be cleaning houses as a gig worker competing with the legals and, you know what I mean, like, barely being able to afford rent in a single bedroom apartment and you certainly don't have health care. that's the same person wow and i mean the last time you're on too you you welcome the idea of a controlled demolition of the the housing market and i don't think a manufacturer can control demolition is the way things went but if you look at the divergence between houses that

Starting point is 00:41:51 are for sale and houses that are being bought right now it's the largest ever and so you do have this situation where i think boomers or many many who have houses right now are trying to sell they simply can't because interest rates and the prices are still high so nine months after our last discussion it seems like something has to come to a head there because that divergence can't persist forever it's like prices either have to come down or you have to lower the interest rates drastically i personally think recessions are healthy and it's like when we have a deflationary when we have a deflationary a birth rate then the idea that our economy is going to continue to be inflationary is kind of retarded like it's not going to go up five percent every

Starting point is 00:42:29 year when we are producing less people i mean like productivity only takes us so far right i'm pretty sure our productivity has been flat for 10 years or whatever ai's i don't think making it better right um and so it's like the corporate press who wants stocks and the line to go up use recession as a dangerous boogeyman bad word and so that it justifies bipartisan rescue bills to prevent recession or to recover from recession and all that is socialistic spending and transfer payments it's all socialism and it's like probably at this point the most dangerous thing is if we don't have a recession and people might scratch their heads but it's like again the specter of not being able to service our own debt and losing reserve status currency status as the dollar

Starting point is 00:43:19 right like these are existential problems that will turn us into the weimar republic and again i'm not an economist but like where are these conversations like why are people not talking about this they're only it's they're only happening on bitcoin podcasts unfortunately yeah i'm i'm old enough to remember when capitalists used to talk about things like creative destruction you know what i mean and it's like no we can't like those corporate loans they can't go bust well it's because they're like leveraged 50x and buried in all these like off balance sheet you know complex securitized products and crap like that and the whole thing's going to come tumbling down like a house of cards i i guarantee you if you just go ask rock is our global

Starting point is 00:43:58 financial system more leveraged and at bigger risk of a systemic financial collapse than in 2007 or not it'll probably say yes like you know what i mean like these problems have not gone away they've gotten worse because now like our entire stock market's like 10 companies right and it's it's like everybody's leveraged to the hill and it's all been like a rent-seeking grift and that's not capitalism like you said capitalism is a doctor in your town that comes to your house and you pay him cash and he renders services that's that's capitalism not like a private equity-backed roll-up of chain store uh like urgent care centers because you can't afford a real doctor like that's not capitalism freaks look at me i'm glowing i've got like an angel's halo going around me you know

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Starting point is 00:47:11 it's scary because you mentioned like midterms like the house could go to democrats likely will go to democrats and then they'll start the the trial shows and that's the most frustrating thing about the the fumble that has been the trump administration as it pertains to domestic economic and immigration policy is i do not want to see this happen i wish we could be focusing on the things i just mentioned but if we're just being objective it like we see we saw it in the bitcoin and crypto industry like the meme coin stuff it's like why are you doing this you had a mandate to clean things up and out of the gate the night of the inauguration you're launching a meme coin like what the fuck is going on are you aware of what

Starting point is 00:47:55 went on in antitrust no oh wait till i tell you this one so again looking back and listen i was personally a trump guy like i spent hours trying to get this retard elected you know back on the donald and again because he objectively was an outsider with the right policies and i wanted to see that work right and he left me not vice versa and i'm allowed to have personal biases because i don't pretend that pollsters shouldn't have them i just try and separate my numbers from them right and i think my track record speech for itself in the first trump administration it was like okay we know he's not a russian russian asset like what are you doing guys come on hillary there's this is hubris right and then i was like okay well there's a linsky call and it's like okay

Starting point is 00:48:38 now this is really retarded like you're showing us democrats are insane and this isn't helping things and i guess it got them their ends of like handicapping the trump administration somewhat but his approval rating was pretty high when they were impeaching him for the ukrainian call so and then when they went after him criminally his that's what sealed him as the republican nominee for 2024 like it made him more popular right so even if they're not sane they could learn from their past excesses and moderate and not be like crazy like that is something that democrats really could do now right now what they're doing is stealing primary elections away from socialists so that they can continue to have an establishment apac person in like that's what's happening right now

Starting point is 00:49:28 so that's kind of insane but uh but when they come out and probably it'll be next month in september i know rokhana has been working a lot on this i know other democrat offices have been like putting these cases together there's real stuff here like we we all see the smoke there is fire and one of the most egregious ones is what happened in antitrust and it's like okay i can't point to you the exact ucc code that makes this a federal offense but it looks egregiously bad so the antitrust person and we actually had a pretty good one under biden but we got a new one gail slater i know her she's a really nice lady and she also cares about the american people and said okay in this job i'm going to put the american people first corporations have too much power and so

Starting point is 00:50:15 we're going to do what antitrust is supposed to do which is break up monopolies and sue the hell out of these companies and they started these lawsuits and one of the lawsuits they went after was to prevent live nation from buying up new you know ticket master venues or whatever right and so this is a like a real circumstance where people go to concerts and they have to pay 200 bucks for a ticket and it's literally because there's a monopoly it would be very popular if they broke this up university and they and they were going to and because it was egregious again and very it would have been a very popular win so mike davis allegedly gets hired as a lobbyist for live nation gets paid 300 000 a month as a

Starting point is 00:50:58 retainer gets a one million dollar success fee there's video documentation on this already on youtube but i assume that it's going to be in like ads and stuff and gets her fired and not gets her fired gets like her office raided by police within the doj and there were other cases too that just there was like a hewlett packard acquisition they they sued to stop it and they immediately like just got overturned because like kellyanne conway was taking a million dollar check like it like this is just what happens the republican lobbyist takes a big check and goes and screws over the american people behind closed doors it's literally the exact same like guy with a monocle in a smoke-filled cigar room right out of the political cartoons of 1905 like that's

Starting point is 00:51:44 exactly what's happening in the trump administration so you know at the end of the day i would have loved for the trump administration to hold the people who violated law in the biden administration criminally accountable or at the very least fire them like where was the frog march of the people out of the fbi who spied on all those moms in the school boards that like we never saw one maybe it happen or not but it's like if you don't see it it didn't happen you don't get credit for it and so trump like has held nobody accountable and i guess if the democrats are going to come back in office and hold criminals accountable like this time around i'm not going to pretend that it's some affront to democracy you know what i mean like it's like well like you guys got

Starting point is 00:52:30 yourself to blame for this one and uh and again like just the level of hubris and openness with which this is happening is is bad and there's like another one with it'll be a story in the wall street journal but let's just say i was part of a polling uh engagement where somebody paid a lot of money to right-leaning pollsters to convince trump to scale back deportations and support an amnesty deal and it was in my opinion the most effective thing that made him change his mind and i didn't do it willingly but like that story is going to come out too like there's a lot of things like that so again it's just so unfortunate and egregious again the crypto the meme coin stuff is something that i'm closest to and it's like what why completely unnecessary

Starting point is 00:53:23 like just you're already a multi-billionaire when you get out of office your family's going to be that like why do this while you're in the halls of power and to your point like i'm not going to be like this is a political witch hunt like it's objectively corrupt to a certain extent and to your to your point about like perp walking people like again just the the speed with which you're moving or the lack of speed with which you're moving we did have a good step in that direction with the the indictment of the woman from where was the ssplc or slpc uh southern poverty law center yeah like nobody really knows who that is you know what i mean like this needed to be like brennan it needed to be ray it probably needed to be whoever signed the auto pen pardons it needed

Starting point is 00:54:16 to be my orcas and of course they're not going to go after my orcas and we all know why like you know what i mean like this is where we're at like it's it's and i you know i don't know if a lot of people knew this but the house oversight committee did not a lot but it did go after the auto pen parts right and i'm pretty sure that they made criminal referrals to the doj and that the doj chose not to pursue these people one can only you know conjecture why it's because they don't want undermine the massive overreach of pardons that the administration did they don't want to you know kill the goose with the golden egg so i mean like that's what i'm guessing so again it's i mean it's just it's just not what america wanted and i don't know like you can't you can't pump out like

Starting point is 00:55:08 reaganomics and muslim hate and dehumanize the socialists enough for me to forget the fact that This was the best chance America had, the best coalition America ever had for financial austerity, for government reform, for economic populism, for reigning in the excess of large corporations, for reindustrializing America. And it's like at the end of this whole endeavor, it will have been essentially for naught. In fact, we're not only that. I mean, I think if we play what's going on in Iran to out to its most likely conclusion, we will have seriously degraded our capabilities to deploy force around the world. And certainly everybody's view of how powerful we are as a military has been seriously undermined. Yeah. oh hey like again i'm not trying to make everybody drink but it's like no i mean it's it's hard it's hard to

Starting point is 00:56:13 it's hard to refute those those points and that's what i got i'm sort of staring out into uh into the sky here on my back porch it's like where do we go from here like the democrats take over do we get a wave of socialist taking hold and how long it's going to take to untangle that gordian knot of terrible policy decisions that just accelerate us towards weimar or is jd28 or somebody like jd the the only hope to actually reverse course let's find let's find something optimistic to talk about okay so first off no matter what happens america will continue for the likely like near future okay we still have a country and you know i can't say the economy's gonna get a lot better but it's like the debt will probably not go up much faster than it already has

Starting point is 00:57:08 under this trump administration okay right like the the exponential curve is not going to like increase by a factor you know it'll stay on its current trajectory right so we got time very entrenched establishments and like we said they're but they're both very corporate oligarchy plutocratic whatever you want to call them and they both like have aligned interests in many things and work together they look out for one particular country in the middle east they and they want you divided and i think very honestly that the idea that the constitutional right has of being like racist and undermining people based on things like you know like i don't want the people from somalia to come over here but if they went through our process and they are a u.s citizen

Starting point is 00:58:05 we have to assimilate them we can't say they all have to go back you know what i mean like we're not like at the same place that the uk is yet okay so like if you can't call yourself a constitutional conservative and say that radical islam is our biggest threat and all muslims have to leave america we were founded on like freedom of religion right it's like literally why we exist as a country right and on the left they you know they dehumanize the right and they say that they're nazi fascists and they do the lgbt stuff so that the right can attack each other over cultural war issues and it's been very effective keeping these people divided and not realizing the extent to which the democrat and republican establishment are tied together and i again i'm not saying it's

Starting point is 00:58:52 all about israel but that is the most obvious venn diagram overlap right so if you take establishment democrats and establishment republicans they are aligned on that issue and they're also aligned on blowing up russia right it's it's it's really like military industrial complex slash foreign interventionalism. It's neoconservatism, right? That's what unites these people. Those people are getting old and dying. And they're also losing the plot. And the internet's getting better. And they're losing their grip on their ability to keep these people divided, because that's how they succeed. And we see it right now. You know, Hasbara got $730 million allocated to it this year i'm sure someone chris lasavita's republican political action

Starting point is 00:59:36 committee have astroturf out there and they're literally doing it right now all the left wants to kill you don't you remember charlie kirk and it's like come on guys it's not all the left yes the left has some violent people but they also think the right is violent because they stormed the you know the capitol building right so i'm most optimistic that the young people are unideological enough that they can see through these neoconservative division tricks and form a youth coalition that is focused on national populism i think that's possible and you're starting to see people try this thing that tucker did i don't like he he's not getting funded from qatar right like if you've just bought his borrowed talking point if you think he's funded

Starting point is 01:00:24 from qatar now whether his track record is great or whether he should have talked to hunter biden like valid questions but what he did with his 10 points was very important because what it does is it signals common ground and collaboration and i happen to watch the way that the young turks covered what tucker did and there was olive branches there so this is possible and all we need to do is is for people to say like at the end of the day we really all are american that's what a nationalistic populist platform would do. It would find common ground and unite us to building a better country. How does that country get better? Well, it's not like the AI data centers. Maybe that's number 52, right? But it's like, people should be able to afford food

Starting point is 01:01:09 here. They should have livelihoods and the government should work for them. And incidentally, what's great like i said is under 40 socialists voted for trump these people are also very interested in fairness they think the people that did things that were wrong should be arrested more so than the boomers like like we asked if people who did the auto pen thing should be arrested and it was like over 60 of young people and it was like down in the 40s or something i forget what it was but it was lower with older people like these people want to they liked blowing up narco boats they're like yep that's defending america blow them up so these people also have even some autocratic tendencies so there's a chance that whatever this is is going

Starting point is 01:01:53 to color fast and loose with the constitution and uh you know like it's up for grabs right now it really is and like this isn't a small amount of people we're talking about 20 30 40 million like whatever this coalition is going to be that's enough for an independent to maybe not win but at least take out one of the other parties so you could see a ross perot spoiler and i think like jd also gets all this stuff he is the only populist that the the only true populist that i'm aware of you know bernie talks the right way about some things but he's he's an establishment creature but he's in like the hardest spot he could possibly be in because he's still attached to trump trump's not going to really have much in the way of coattails i think and the establishment

Starting point is 01:02:43 republicans hate him because he's not a zionist and they're going to do everything in their power to try and take him out not only that but for the corporate reasons for the fact that he actually is a populist so it's like he's got a really uphill fight and he's the best guy that i personally think we have right now to get america this national populist platform i think it needs and it asks for so it's like okay maybe it's jd maybe it's aoc maybe the establishment succeeds in getting rubio in there rubio will almost certainly lose and aoc will probably just be like a laughing stock retarded president that just does biden stuff right so uh so it's like pray for an outsider like that's really what it is yeah ah it's such a clown show yeah it is uh it makes you want to

Starting point is 01:03:39 focus on local politics just like get down to the county city state level and just focus there yeah yeah yeah because when you think of the debt i i think i said this last year when you're on um um i'm economic populist nationalist myself too uh and i think it all comes back to the money i literally think the core of all these problems and both parties would never agree to do this and that's why i'm such a strong advocate for bitcoin because it's a sly roundabout way that hayek described in the 80s to take money out of the control of governments and central banks like you can't fix any of these problems because they're all spending problems at the end of the they're all favoritism problems that are enabled by the ability to issue debt um wantonly without

Starting point is 01:04:27 any uh thought of replications or opportunity cost because the fed will always be there to monetize that debt like until you take away their ability to just print money and throw it in all this and enable this crony oligarchic corporate fascism whatever we want to call it it is what it is yeah i think it all comes back to the money and from an economics perspective um the the only way out is debasement and that is what is causing everybody to really feel the pains of financial strife via higher prices and they think it's trump corporate favoritism or the socialist and the the doling out of subsidies and and uh entitlements and it's it's all of it and it all stems from literally the money the most important tool we use as humans how do you

Starting point is 01:05:19 express value and coordinate economic activity it's money and if the money's broken your political and economic system is going to be too yeah now i'm hoping so the fourth turning tells us that the pendulum swings back on things like morals values and integrity and then ultimately what we have here is systematic systemic failure of integrity and all of these institutions have been built on ideals that were very popular with the boomer generation instilled post-world war ii and mean nothing now especially the younger people and they want a fair values driven economy where people are held accountable for being criminals and where there's justice and that has a lot less to do with things like liberalism and socialism and also like what's kind of wild

Starting point is 01:06:08 is that like whether or not they support things like you know flooding the country with illegals or they support like the lgbt stuff like there's this libertarian classical liberal idea of like okay they're a citizen and we're a country you know what i mean like that like i really do think that the more racist anti-human parts of the conservative are coming from the older generations that just love to go over and bond brown people and it's like okay well if you're if you're a constitutional conservative christian persians have natural rights from god too you know what i mean it's like no we got oh we just got a glass the whole country like really that's your position because you just made yourself look insane and you're going to try and win an election with that

Starting point is 01:06:57 being a core fundamental belief like that's not wise because the young people don't like that that turns them off most of them right and yet at the same time they're fine with deporting everybody it's like that's not fair they shouldn't be here get them the hell out right so but they also don't want to see like ice goose stepping around neighborhoods shooting people in the face with tear gas because that's not american and and so like they have finer sensibilities in my opinion about like what the future should look like and they're going to get political power and it's like you look at where we're at objectively as a country it's not a surprise we're here like many countries many empires have been in this particular circumstance

Starting point is 01:07:38 but it's just like you can never predict how it's going to play out it could be a long slow decline like rome and we just like people stop repairing the roads and then like thief thumbs pop up like i don't know it could be a massive civil war it could be total global war and the establishments will externalize our enemy and i could actually get us out of this right i don't know if the young people would sign up to fight and die for it and how well conscription would go over now like i don't know or these people could just like get a really good outsider who's um astute enough leader to find very easy to find common ground it's very easy to find common ground and it's like hey like guys just shut up about the tranny stuff we're gonna get rid of the under

Starting point is 01:08:25 we're gonna get rid of the sex change for minors we'll give you your parental rights but it's just let them be retarded you know what i mean like like there are common grounds on things like this somebody could easily do that it's like no reddit stop talking about killing your political enemies you know bring the ceo in give him an earful tell him he's under investigation like whatever you have to do like let's tone this down and uh you know like the entrenched deep state the corporate interests the foreign interests are not going to want that to happen is spencer pratt a dark horse outsider in your mind uh i don't know like he caught he caught he caught a lot of people he was doing the right thing in the la race yeah whoever this person is

Starting point is 01:09:14 has to be very impressive like that's the problem you know what i mean like the bar is so high uh you know just because like like one teddy roosevelt speech he makes will get printed in every newspaper and nobody ever sees what he does 99 of the rest of the time you know what i mean like now it's like you're gonna it's like al sayed again i don't want a democrat socialist to win but it's like blues brothers dude like you know what i mean it's so it's blues clues the blues crew what i say blues brother yeah blues clues like what what are we doing here yeah it's a clown show it's it's embarrassing to be it almost is like we're in the humiliation ritual of some satanic uh occult or something like that and uh yeah we're like a socialist overtaking the

Starting point is 01:10:02 color revolution just humiliation um but to your point about this younger coalition what's their propensity to actually get out and vote is that is that increasing will they actually show up or they just talk about online uh i mean there there is certainly going to be less of a turnout and the problem is is it's like okay you look back 20 years ago and it's just a totally different set of young people and it was a totally different politics there was a lot more cultural conservatism and a lot of you know like just very different right and so the most recent example we have is a 2024 presidential election cycle where a lot of new voters came out for the first time and where there there were a lot of crossover democrats and independents so we have this one data point of a

Starting point is 01:10:53 77 million republican electorate for a presidential cycle but we do not yet have a very good data point for like yes 2022 was higher turnout than normal but it was still like very old you know what i mean like and it wasn't the same you know people hadn't decided on trump yet he was like kind of a non-entity like he wasn't really doing much in 2022 other than getting raided in mar-a-lago i think happened that year and biden was being awfully retarded but the democrats got a wave on the on the dobbs decision like that's the republicans were up a lot and then that tightened it down to i think a three-point race at the end but what we're seeing in all these special elections is that all those people that came out for the first time for trump are just not

Starting point is 01:11:43 coming back out and so whether that's because of the youth propensity or lack thereof to come vote i think it's more of like the youth propensity to not want to put up with like you say humiliation rituals right i think that's really what's going on and uh like i i have no case to be made for a higher than expected republican turnout like i just don't see how that even happens because they've literally underperformed every polling and and even in these primaries where it's like you know you got a bunch of people to show up for galrein it's like okay well how much of that was harvested and unrepeatable at a national scale his turnout was like all boomers you know like it's it's not going to be this nationwide groundswell of young people that are

Starting point is 01:12:33 afraid of so they're not afraid of the socialists they're not i think a lot of people they hear defund the police and it just goes over the head not because they don't hate the idea but it's like they don't think they're serious about it and we and it's like well how can how can that be that's crazy it was like think about the kind of things that people had to forget about trump to vote for him right it's like it's pretty equivalent right yeah like they had to they had to hold their nose and choke down january 6th and i think january 6 obviously was a fed off it was a psychological operation but a lot of people don't think that they think that trump tried to overthrow the government and then a lot of those people still voted for him

Starting point is 01:13:12 yeah i mean january 6 was fed up and in my opinion if you just like look at the people walking around the capitol buildings okay yeah i think we got up to about 57 percent of america agreed that it was the federal federal agents were involved in the january 6 riot yeah yeah so a lot of people had their eyes open yeah but then you had like a quarter of republicans say that it was the biggest threat to democracy since the civil war so it's like yeah it was all again a clown show humiliation ritual um all right we're uh we're approaching midterms uh let's just maybe the last thing to touch on what do you think are the most important races or topics that that people should be paying attention to i'm just worried about what happens with this conflict in the middle

Starting point is 01:14:02 east between now and november because we've probably never been in a bigger window for suspected false flag and i hate to sound conspiratorial but it's true it's not conspiratorial we got to stop you got to stop we have to stop um what's the word i'm like disclaiming uh i hate to sound it's because it's objectively true these false flags exist they have existed yeah and we are in the window for the biggest you know the benefit the the risk benefit analysis is probably the best calculus it's been for a long time for one of those to happen. And hopefully it doesn't. And the same thing, like, I just think like really what we're going to do is we're going to tick along until November and nothing's going to change. Like

Starting point is 01:14:48 Trump's going to put out some positive economic numbers. The Democrats are going to put out some negative ones. Everybody's going to run a bunch of ads and everybody's going to be harvesting a bunch of mail-in ballots. And I don't know what's going on with the machines. I don't know who control them now it's going to be very unpredictable there's probably going to be a huge polling miss because how can you even predict what's going to go on um but it's like what i don't know yet is how effective the democrats will be with whatever this anti-corruption advertisement and theatrics they do because they've been very quiet and uh you know there hasn't there hasn't been a lot of like overt trump hatred and they just let him cook you know let him

Starting point is 01:15:26 let them so we'll see what that looks like and it could be wild and maybe maybe it won't do anything but it's like if we tick along till november and the polling stays about the same i do think republicans will underperform the democrat plus eight real clear politics aggregate right now in house popular vote level by a point or two i think that's based on what all has happened with all the special elections and what we're looking at then is how accurate were the estimates of how many seats that people have picked up in redistricting because all of that was based on 2024. And so if you really have what that would be is like if Democrats pulled a plus 10 House popular vote, that's like almost a 12 point swing

Starting point is 01:16:12 from where we were in 2024. And so when people say the House is entrenched or the Republicans are picking up seats. It's not in an environment with a 12-point swing. And so what you might see is there's this trough where the House doesn't really move that much if we stay within this range. You get outside of it, the Democrats are just going to be picking up seats that people didn't expect. And who knows who they are? Because in some of these districts, it's only going to be a five-point swing. In others, it's going to be a 17-point swing. You look at the Whatley race that's going on in uh uh north carolina and um he's underperforming trump by 17 points in the latest poll that i saw like you know like that's that's not good like

Starting point is 01:16:59 and and so i don't know i think you see potentially like i like texas is in play it absolutely 100 is in play and it only comes down to electioneering in the state like it really does because the the polling is tight like a couple points apart and that's not where it should be when trump won by like 13 points in texas right and then ohio like i think vivek's in danger 100 iowa so but again but again if it's not a 57 to 43 republican lead in the senate they're not going to get any legislation through anyways so i don't think the senate matters i think i you know we're just like we're just gonna wake up to a very close house race or democrats just like ran the board yeah i do want to note before we wrap up here it is insane that

Starting point is 01:17:49 ballot harvesting and rigged elections are just expected now it's uh yeah it's uh it was taboo in 2020 six years later 2026 it is uh basically accepted as a as a fact of how the system works yeah no you know michigan look at uh al-sayed right he underperformed the polling by nine points there were good pollsters like emerson who had him up 14 i think emerson had and then of course trump comes out the same the next morning and says he only won because he cheated And it's like, like, no, bro, the black precincts in Detroit were stuffing ballots. And because he doesn't have the SEIU behind him or whatever it is, because he doesn't have the political organizations that bus people from neighboring states, because he doesn't have the people in vans that go around to nursing homes with blank mail-in ballots or write these mail-in ballots in a warehouse somewhere, again, with SEIU workers or something. like he the anti-establishment people don't have that capability and i think they it's impossible to know how much and obviously some of it was a mismatch in capabilities from an advertising

Starting point is 01:19:04 perspective and i don't know how good of a campaign he ran but there was some cheating guaranteed there was some cheating and who cheated they wanted to keep the apac candidate in that's really what it was they paid 70 million dollars for haley stevens and then they would have had an APAC candidate on both sides of that race and why like Trump freaked out on true socially came out the next day he was one of the only races he talked about right and it's like well like why is that well the APAC lost the senate seat that's what it is you know what I mean like not in the general in the primary like because everybody can say like and there was a poll that put Rogers out four points I think he loses Rogers lost when Trump was on the ballot so you know I think that

Starting point is 01:19:48 four point was an outlier but we'll see maybe he maybe people don't really maybe they'll really vote against a muslim socialist in but i i don't i don't think so i don't know we'll see and hopefully um we don't wait nine months to do it maybe we'll catch up after the midterms i'm sure the next couple of months um but really appreciate you coming on congrats on starting the honest poll um doing it with integrity uh it's lacking these days so i really appreciate that you're putting an effort to to preserve your integrity and do things the right way that that's what i'm here for it's my goal if i ever lose my integrity i'll shut down so where uh where can we send people um to learn more so we have a landing page at the honest poll.com please sign up for free

Starting point is 01:20:34 substack notifications and the second i get this youtube thing straightened out we'll have the youtube channel back up and we'll be putting out you know we're really going to get our content honed into higher value stuff like understanding public sentiment and how it drives like behind the narratives because again almost everything we see now is establishment kabuki theater and there's nobody like really nailing that and so on twitter it's at honest polster as well so people check me out i got a lot of hot takes go check it out great follow mark it's always a pleasure sir thank you thanks marty peace and love freaks okay thank you for listening to this episode of tftc if you've made it this far i imagine you got some value out of the episode

Starting point is 01:21:17 if so please share it far and wide with your friends and family we're looking to get the word out there also wherever you're listening whether that's youtube apple spotify make sure you like and subscribe to the show and if you can leave a rating on the podcasting platforms that goes a long way last but not least if you want to get these episodes a day early and ad free make sure you download the fountain podcasting app and go to fountain.fm to find that five dollars a month get you every episode a day early ad free helps the show gives you incredible value so please consider subscribing via fountain as well thank you for your time and until next time Thank you.

TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - #783: Trump Is Throwing The Midterms with Mark Mitchell

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