TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - Tales from the Crypt #34: Murad Mahmudov

Episode Date: June 27, 2018

Join Marty as he sits down with Murad Mahmudov, angel investor and author of two of the most prolific pieces on Bitcoin this year. The two dive deep into this conversation, discussing why dApp platfor...m tokens shouldn't have any value, why Bitcoin's quest to become the reserve currency of the world has the biggest potential from an investment perspective, and some thoughts on anon coins and stable coins. Follow Murad: www.twitter.com/MustStopMurad Follow Marty: www.twitter.com/MartyBent

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 what is up freaks welcome back to tales from the crypt it's your boy marty bent in the new studio here at the dig.com offices in williamsburg brooklyn we moved over the east river happy to be where i am right now i miss barstool uh but but on to new things so the second podcast of the day believe it or not we had safer dina moose in the office earlier this morning for a quick rip to talk about his book the bitcoin standard we got into uh talking about industrial sludge by the end of that one but i'm very excited for this podcast tonight not only because of the guests but because we're drinking again we've got bullet bourbon back in the studio need it it's been a long day that was
Starting point is 00:00:51 an early podcast rip, but we're going to jump into this one. It's going to be a longer conversation than the one I had with Saif. I want to introduce you all to angel investor in the space and prolific writer, Murad Mamadouf. Murad, welcome to the podcast. Thank you, Marty. Glad to be here. Big fan of the show and very humbled to be here, especially after titans such as safe dean joe newberry matt corallo um really excited and uh excited to have this conversation you know what we like we like getting everybody on here especially if you have very interesting thoughts in the space and you my friend i would say you and your writing partner adam tash tashay however you pronounce his last name uh have written two of the most prolific
Starting point is 00:01:37 pieces on Bitcoin this year to date the four faces of Bitcoin and Bitcoin past and future just curious what inspired you to to write those pieces we're always thinking about always thinking about anything we can do to evangelize this space to accelerate the adoption one of our upcoming blog post is actually a list of 100 things that anybody can do to accelerate the adoption of bitcoin around the world 100 things 100 things um and um we really want to see this movement succeed we really want to um enter an era of sound money um and enter an era of true sovereign individuals um so writing writing long blogs is the smallest thing anyone can do
Starting point is 00:02:25 and we hope that this is merely the beginning yeah i mean it's been incredible stuff i think uh the four phases of bitcoin in particular you guys did an incredible job of breaking down sort of the different schools of thought within bitcoin in particular like obviously there's a whole shitcoin landscape but even within bitcoin there's factions so basically it broke down into monetary maximalist austrians uh john nash ideal money um help me out here b cashers cashers and And the last one was... Sort of the DeSantis, Mark Wilcox school of thought. School of thought, the quantum entanglement.
Starting point is 00:03:05 Right. Bitcoin and its forks are sort of a tree. Yeah, their vision is almost techno-mystical, as I like to say. I love those tickets. They force people to think different. So between the four faces of Bitcoin, what mask do you like to wear? I ascribe to the first one, especially when it comes to Bitcoin itself. Sort of more of the Austrian approach.
Starting point is 00:03:35 I see Bitcoin as, and it's a very rough metaphor, but almost like a stricter, sounder gold. I like what Safedian, by the way, likes to say about Bitcoin, that it's less like an iPhone and more like gunpowder. in the sense that you can avoid using the iPhone and still thrive in the modern age, but when gunpowder came around, if you weren't one of the civilizations who adopted it, then the consequences weren't very good. I like to say that the digital gold meme
Starting point is 00:04:09 is almost like a very loose, very distant analogy, and the more appropriate description is more like digital monetary nuclear weapons. Just like the nuclear weapons in the middle of the 20th century. If you're one of the top six, top seven sort of civilizations or nations, and you don't make sure that you have a possession of at least a handful of nuclear weapons, then you wouldn't have the kind of power that other nations would. And I think this is sort of a similar monetary phenomenon.
Starting point is 00:04:45 Yeah, have you ever seen that time-lapse video of countries adopting nukes and testing them on YouTube? It's pretty crazy to see. it's um it's pretty fucked up what we did to uh to some islands in the pacific you know just completely nuking them well islands in the pacific even more so um i myself am from the soviet union so we i believe still russia has like in terms of raw numbers the biggest number of nukes either they did or they still do and um they built a bomb i believe that was like 60 000 times bigger than hiroshima nagasaki bomb and essentially they tested them like above russia like around the arctic where no one lives um and you can still see on google maps like 100 kilometer holes like
Starting point is 00:05:31 craters yeah holy shit that's crazy yeah it's uh it's gotten to a point nuke wise though where it seems like yeah the game theory is such that like the only decision uh for the game is not to play you know well there's a lot of oh there's a lot of uh similarities with like these cryptocurrencies as well like the whole point of nuclear weapons isn't to use them but like just to have them it's almost like a mexican standoff type situation exactly where you need to have them um almost like an entente in a way or like a detente sorry um where a bunch of strong superpowers essentially arrive to this like equilibrium where they have it and they almost like keep each other in check yeah exactly um and we're seeing the mad dash for bitcoins maybe it will incite a similar sort of
Starting point is 00:06:25 arms race and i would argue it is uh i bet it's all going on behind the scenes i mean i like to say that the moment some mid-sized Asian central bank announces that they put one percent of their portfolio in what will probably be like top three cryptocurrencies is what they'll probably do just not to gamble I mean that will be the defining moment at the same time though I believe some of them probably already are doing something like that in small quantities the sort of isolated nations in particular like venezuela iran north korea there have there have been some there has been some evidence that they're already sort of doing what's called state mining where they're just either installing mining farms themselves or expropriating them entirely and
Starting point is 00:07:16 then just seizing control over them because state mining is essentially buying the same thing as buying anonymously with electricity yeah i saw one crazy stat like because of how cheap oil is in venezuela in particular like the cost to mine one bitcoin is like 580 yes you have an automatic 10x on your return right now because the price is falling but it's that's insane like the sunk cost of 580 to mine a bitcoin is is ridiculous and i've actually seen videos of venezuelan state mining farms that are that are up in like guard standing with ak's around them yeah yeah yeah so that as well it's uh it's insane and uh but that scares a lot of people that like these technology is proliferating in these sort of despot despot run uh countries run by despot
Starting point is 00:08:04 despots um what do you what do you have to say that like people are like oh my god it's like this this we see similar patterns with a lot of technology um things like war things like the porn industry um all these things that are like considered to be dark have led civilization towards eventually has has led the world towards greater sort of technological innovations um even like the earliest use cases for a car was for bank robberies i believe um and yeah i mean a lot of the earliest technologies are are used for dark purposes because criminals are always looking for sort of competitive advantages and are more willing to take risks, obviously, with new sort of gambles.
Starting point is 00:08:52 But I think that this is similar to people stating for years that Bitcoin is for criminals and things like that. I mean, that's absolute nonsense. I mean, if you're a criminal, then just using straight cash is much better. It's much better. Why would you use a transparent ledger to conduct criminal activities? It makes no sense. Yeah, in fact, HSBC has teller windows specifically shaped for your briefcases filled with cash if you're trying to launder money in your drug cartel or something like that.
Starting point is 00:09:22 I mean, the amount of money that is laundered or otherwise negatively used through cryptocurrencies, even to date, is nothing compared to the amount of money laundering that happens through fiat currencies. So, I mean, that's that. It pales in comparison, and you'd be dumb to do illegal activities with Bitcoin specifically because it's fully traceable to an extent if you have pointers at exchanges or on and off ramps. But the reason I brought you on today, we've got a list of things we need to debunk, and we're going to dive into it. first one blockchain not bitcoin why are we why why can't why isn't blockchain technology like the the best thing to happen since slice spread like it's supposed to solve all the world's
Starting point is 00:10:15 problems supposed to solve our our supply supply chain management problems our art ownership problems blood diamonds why bitcoin not blockchain i mean it is my hope my sincere hope that even people who in 2014-2015 really sort of perpetuated this false mantra. Even people at banks these days, even the relatively unsophisticated market observers and participants are realizing that this is completely false. I don't want to say that money is the only thing that blockchains are good for. I certainly believe that that is their best use case. I believe that over sort of longer periods of time we will see a bunch of legit non scam use cases of blockchain technology as time goes on but my thesis and this is somewhat
Starting point is 00:11:09 counter to sort of the fat protocols the shared data layer is another thing we have to debunk well something something me and Adam called the fat money thesis And essentially, we believe that the fattest protocol, so to speak, or the biggest value accrual will occur with the blockchain networks that become seen and become used as money. And of course, we can get into who the best candidates are for that upcoming role. But just because a lot of people say that, oh, so many people are, but so many people are building on top of Ethereum, man. There's like, they have like 400,000 developers, don't they? I don't think that the amount of people building on top of a system is necessarily the determinant of what will become the biggest, soundest form of money of the future, or what will
Starting point is 00:12:08 become the neo-gold, if I may. I think that theoretically, of course, there's some overlap, but theoretically, you can have hundreds of useful dApps on top of Ethereum. I mean, let's entertain that idea at least, and have quadrillions of dollars moving through the Ethereum system or moving through any kind of smart contract system, and it still wouldn't accrue value. I mean, that's theoretically possible due to the by now famous velocity problem, of course. Exactly. And what really matters is which crypto asset people will hold for months at a time, for years at a time even.
Starting point is 00:12:49 Those are going to be the crypto assets that will become double-digit trillion dollar networks if we calculate it in 2018 US dollar terms. The most annoying people are those who say, oh, the killer app for Bitcoin and the killer app for blockchain hasn't been invented yet. Those are the most annoying people because Bitcoin is the killer use case. We're trying to replace money. We're trying to create a better form of money. The second most annoying thing is people like Bcashers, Ripple lovers, IOTA lovers, Nano lovers. Hey, we respect Bcashers here. We refer to it as BCH, all right? Yeah, we got to be politically correct.
Starting point is 00:13:35 Litecoin lovers even, I would say. They say, oh, but Nano is faster. It's so much faster. I mean, a lot of people are lately talking about this. They confuse means of payment with medium of exchange. Yeah, this was a good tweet storm. Was it you? Somebody tweeted a quote from a Telegram group that I wrote. Yes, that was it.
Starting point is 00:14:03 So what makes something a medium of exchange is that people are willing to exchange it for goods and services. And if something becomes a desirable store of value and essentially saturates the division in the market for a store of value, if people see other people desiring something as a store of value, they will be willing to accept it as a medium of exchange. The speed of the network isn't even in the top five most important properties that will, I believe, define the store of value winner. And so we're not trying to build a better PayPal here. Trying to create new money. And frankly, even if we were, I would find that unexciting. What we're trying is to create better central banking, essentially, and a better form of monetary unit. Because PayPal is merely like the tray on top of which the food rests.
Starting point is 00:14:56 It's a pipeline. That's all it is. Vijay Boyapati has a very good article, The Bullish Case for Bitcoin. Incredible. That was a series, and he rolled it up into one article. It's incredible. If you haven't read it yet. That was one of the best articles that is on Crypto Medium.
Starting point is 00:15:11 Real underscore Vijay. Look him up on Twitter. Shout out. Shout out Vijay. If you ever want to come on the pod. Yeah. And like essentially the total adjustable market for the payments industry is nothing compared to the total adjustable market for wealth. Or for monetary instruments.
Starting point is 00:15:28 And it's the latter that we want. And it's a much bigger elephant. So you said the speed of transactions is not even in the top five of the future store of value in your mind. What would you say are the most pertinent attributes of the store of value? So there's a lot of debate around this issue right now. And there's a lot of talk about sort of path dependency and ways to which sort of this grand store of value achievement will be accomplished. But I believe that much more important than raw speed of transactions is security. I think security is number one.
Starting point is 00:16:08 And both sort of the security in terms of the quality of code. Because at the end of the day, it's important to understand that these cryptocurrencies are what I like to describe as hybrid money softwares. And I believe a lot of thought leaders in this space, quote unquote. thought leaders believe that run away from the thought leaders freaks
Starting point is 00:16:30 yeah if somebody says that they like understand cryptocurrencies then they don't understand cryptocurrencies it's like Albert Einstein
Starting point is 00:16:39 said if someone tells you that they understand quantum mechanics they don't understand quantum mechanics yeah so
Starting point is 00:16:46 these are hybrid money softwares and a lot of people pay more attention to the software and less attention to the monetary aspects
Starting point is 00:16:53 and I believe that we need to the monetary aspects because the end desire and the end scenario where immense amount of value accrues to these protocols is if they become global money.
Starting point is 00:17:08 So I think when we're trying to invest, when we're trying to analyze, when we're trying to see which protocols will truly be huge in the future, then we need to look, the monetary characteristics need to take precedence. And so I believe that security, both in terms of cost of
Starting point is 00:17:24 mounting attack and like we can talk about hash power proof of work etc but security in terms of cost of mounting an attack and security in terms of quality of code um general decent levels of decentralization and censorship resistance is why we are here in the first place and that matters a lot that's one of the reasons i don't think that something like eos or something like ripple or stellar will ever become global stores of value because they are remarkably centralized and at that point i might just use dollars like why would i use why would i use those those things I think that immutability and general ledger irreversibility is very important. And for sort of the people who pay particularly careful attention to sort of who consider that blockchains are supposed to be as irreversible as possible.
Starting point is 00:18:14 Some of the protocols that have been known to reverse certain transactions or cancel certain blocks in the past, that doesn't bode well for the credibility of their system. Is that a subtle knock at Ethereum? I mean, we all remember what happened in June 2016, in the summer of 2016. You can all stop trading now. Okay, guys, you can stop trading now. Yeah. I think that sort of the credibility of monetary policy is the most important thing. A lot of people are saying, oh, we need inflationary systems and they're more sustainable or whatever.
Starting point is 00:18:50 Let's get into that. Like, what the fuck? Like, Bitcoin was an overt, basically, it was an overt response to a fiat inflationary system, like, written into the Genesis block. I mean, I think this is becoming, like, somewhat of a, like, a controversial opinion. But, like, if it's not fixed supply, then why would anybody invest in these things? That's the biggest value proposition. The whole point is digital scarcity. That's the number one innovation that Satoshi gave us.
Starting point is 00:19:21 The 21 million Bitcoin supply limit is the most important thing in the system. If you're going to start inflating these systems, like most smart contract protocols are trying to do, like Peter Rison wants to do with his Bitcoin unlimited scheme or whatever, then like the value proposition just isn't there the whole point is to have sound money and sound money is a disinflationary one and one when there's a fixed cap so like that's that now it gets a little bit more complicated because once sort of people have raised like Princeton researchers have raised the problem that oh like the way Bitcoin is right now if the fees are a
Starting point is 00:20:06 bigger proportion of sort of the resources that are incentivizing miners as opposed to the inflation rate then they might engage in some malicious there might be incentivized to engage in some malicious activity fee sniping things like that but i believe that these problems are solvable and we still have 15 20 years to solve them yeah that's what i talked about with matt corallo um we put it we i think we ended up on like 12 to 15 years like with the block the way the block rewards are lining up uh it's definitely a problem that needs to be solved like there needs to be a subsidy for the block reward but it all depends on the price right like so if the price appreciates the pace it has been like you might only need like a like very very small fees on a
Starting point is 00:20:50 satoshi per bite basis yeah for sure and i mean there's only so much money in the world um but a a continual rise in price would certainly help the situation at the end of the day uh i believe the fees would have to go much higher I believe also do you think we need like a 12.5 Bitcoin per block fee
Starting point is 00:21:14 regime in the future like right now the block reward is 12.5 Bitcoin no but it's going to half in two years like what is or what will be the acceptable fee
Starting point is 00:21:31 fee reward per block fee reward fee collection per block or whatever well there's going to be a fee market i mean it's going to be decided by the free market our our hope is that we can engineer the system in a way that the fees that miners will be receiving from people using bitcoin as a transactional system will be sufficient to make the system sustainable and made the security of the system robust yeah and uh let's dive into that the security of the system we were talking about the feedback loop that is bitcoin mining and the beautiful incentive system incentive system that satoshi designed so bitcoin is beautiful feedback look loop i would say the feedback loop started with lazlo with the pizza when when it moved from a collectible to
Starting point is 00:22:18 somewhat of a medium of exchange as soon as somebody put value on it like all right i'm to value these bitcoins at two two pizzas two papa john's pizzas it started the feedback loop which is price miners saw that hey somebody's valuing these bitcoins i'm going to expend some energy to try to get some and liquidate that for some value so you see a price that brings on miners which brings security to the network which makes the network more secure which in turn makes the network more desirable for people to store their money which drives the price higher which brings more miners, which makes it more secure, which drives people to buy it. And it's a feedback loop. And you were talking about one part of this feedback loop that I was missing. And that's the
Starting point is 00:22:57 hardware. Well, yes. And to add yet another sort of additional positive wrinkle to that feedback loop is the fact that sort of the efficiency, the many different kinds of efficiencies of ASICs that are securing these systems have also been improving. So this essentially, the exponential curve of security, which are sort of securitizing the system, is even steeper in that sense. What do you mean by steeper? Like the efficiencies caused by the R&D going into making more efficient ASICs? Precisely. I believe the raw cost of hardware has been improving, and also the the energy efficiency of of asics has also been improving um per unit of per unit of security that they add to the system yeah there was a crazy stat i don't know exactly what the
Starting point is 00:23:51 stat is or line or tidbit is that like there's never been a turnaround from r&d to production of chip manufacturing than there has for like asic chips for for bitcoin mining in particular Like it is driving people to innovate at a pace that we've never seen before. For sure. And that's one of the biggest differences between sort of the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard is the fact that like the more money, the more people that elect to use Bitcoin as their as their store of value, the more security, the more security it will become. um and i it's it's it's one of the most secure systems in the world in in in terms of the raw computational power that's securing it which is um which makes it very secure and and uh i like i think from like a cognitive perspective that's a very interesting point to understand yeah do you
Starting point is 00:24:40 think we ever uh level out hash power do you think we move to dyson spheres and just keep getting as much energy as possible um i think it will like probably taper out in like a um s curve type fashion but it will remain very very high yeah yeah and that's uh yeah i think last night at devs we brought up the the website that shows you how expensive it is to to attack a chain and it would cost you like half a million dollars an hour to try to attack bitcoin but the price is probably precipitously higher uh considering who you need to coordinate that blah blah blah yeah i haven't delved into this issue that deeply but i believe that like are you talking about the crypto 51.app or something yeah yeah um that though the price is shown there well a they don't
Starting point is 00:25:28 include the hardware they only include the like the the electric component power and also like it's the cost to attack the system i believe for one hour yes for one hour for one hour yeah Yeah, for the big cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin in particular, I believe you would need to attack it for many, many, many hours to do any kind of significant damage. So you're burning a million dollars for two hours if you're trying to do this. So the true cost would be way more expensive than the numbers that you're seeing there.
Starting point is 00:25:56 Yeah, exactly. Yeah, so we're almost a decade in. are we past the point of of bitcoin being like secure against nation-state attacks the point of no return yeah exactly um i would like to hope so um the best attacks against bitcoin probably aren't the computational ones anyway they're probably social media attacks regulatory attacks financial attacks um let's dive into these different scenarios like social attacks what we talking about I mean people talk about many different scenarios the biggest risk against Bitcoin still and is probably regulatory and this applies
Starting point is 00:26:42 to I think all sort of monetary instruments that reside on these blockchain systems is some critical countries or some critical markets just outright banning or shutting down exchanges the Fiat on-ramps are are definitely sort of the biggest bottlenecks. My hope is that once major institutional investors arrive, and I think it's really important that they do arrive, once they arrive, the Bitcoin lobby is already pretty strong
Starting point is 00:27:13 and the Bitcoin lobby will keep strengthening. If the Harvard endowment, if State Street, state street if some cow purse has uh like bitcoin on their balance sheet then and if the government tries to ban them then they'll be like come on guys like what are you doing like this is our this is our money you know i love that you brought that up my dad has actually been trying to convince me to convince the yale endowment fund to uh to invest in bitcoin because they put out like a yearly pay a yearly report or whatever and they have a section on alternative investments he's like dude you should reach out to these guys get them invested in bitcoin but yeah like you said
Starting point is 00:27:50 As soon as that happens, it's like there's no turning back. Yeah, I've been talking to some people about sort of the endowments because they are one of the five or six sort of categories of large institutional investors that are really important. They're relatively conservative, and they move slowly. Even if there are a handful of PMs at these major university endowments that are already seeing the light. Shout out to Paul. Yes. then even so they need to convince their CIO and even if the CIO is convinced the CIO needs to go to the board they need to go to the board which is full of 85 year olds who like don't really have
Starting point is 00:28:32 such a good grasp or understanding of these digital tokens I mean I'm 23 years old the people of my generation and especially even more so people younger than me like those that are 16 17 years old who grew up essentially playing uh minecraft or world of warcraft or whatever to them the idea of digital gold or digital tokens or digital money is absolutely normal and it's absolutely fine and it's it's the future i mean it's an inescapable future the question is not if we're beyond that point now the question is when so could be could be five years could be 25 years but it's coming it's coming and um i believe it will make uh the world a better place it will make capital accumulation better it will make markets more efficient it will make price
Starting point is 00:29:21 discovery more efficient it will make transactions borderless and frictionless and faster and just smoother and the financial systems will be more liquid and programmable and there's probably dozens and dozens more benefits that i'm sure you agree with definitely let's touch on capital accumulation now that's like one thing i was talking about was safe this morning is like the average american cannot afford a 400 emergency expense like there is no capital accumulation going on in the households these days like this i think will force people to delay satisfaction and start saving for the future like it already has done so to me like i i'm wearing the only pair of pants i own right now so yeah and looking at some of the graphs in america in particular
Starting point is 00:30:07 The savings rate has gone from like 16% in the 80s to 3% right now. At the same time, the spending rate has been increasing. So these lines have been diverging. Spending going up. And we're talking about a country with arguably like the best form of fiat right now, which is being printed at a rate of 6.1%. It's not arguable. It's definitely the best. It's the reserve currency of the world.
Starting point is 00:30:28 Right. And yet the dollar is getting printed at the rate of around 6.1%, 6.2% per year. I do believe that Saifedean has what many people consider controversial issues with regard to how the currency system and the money system actually has tremendous rippling effects throughout the entire society and civilization at large. And you know what? The more I study this space and the more I look into general monetary economics, I think that there is something to what he's saying. Because a form of money that is inflating at a slower rate, or not at all, will incentivize you to think about, what am I going to be doing eight years from now? Not how I quickly go and buy a fridge today, how I can quickly go and buy some sneakers tomorrow. Instead, you're seeing, oh, let me start a long-term project. Let me dedicate myself to a longer craft, to some kind of an artisanal, some kind of a meaningful activity.
Starting point is 00:31:31 instead of just spending it on the useless bullshit essentially that's one thing i've been preaching is like we need to make like the iroquois nation and think about seven generations ahead of us and start planning for that and that's how you really get healthy society because and that's what safe and i touched on this morning is that we are inarguably an unhealthy society right now heart heart diseases at all-time highs depression suicide opioid addiction at all-time eyes something is wrong like in and i like you and becoming more and more convinced it has something to do with with the growth of fiat currencies and just a proliferation of printing money at will to to sustain an economy built on debt i mean i'm going to link two points here
Starting point is 00:32:15 one of the other things that are important for a gold standard and what essentially drives a lot of these like shitcoiners nuts is how slow bitcoin is to change and i believe you like to say a lot that Bitcoin will change us more than we try to change it. Yes. And I was actually having lunch with Saifedean yesterday and discussing this point. And I think it's a very remarkable point. I mean, money is a half of every transaction.
Starting point is 00:32:42 And it's such an important thing. It's something everybody wants. So to say that fiat is the zenith of the ultimate form of money ever invented is just ridiculous. We can engineer a better form of money. A form of money that's better in a multitude, multitude of ways. I believe that a currency that is at least slightly more disinflationary will change people's personalities. And as such, will probably change culture itself.
Starting point is 00:33:14 Because I don't know about you, I'm sure you've experienced the same changes as well. I can only speak for myself but also with a bunch of other sort of Bitcoin supporters that I've talked to over the years is that Bitcoin changes your personality slowly but surely it makes you save more it makes you a little bit more disciplined a little bit more passionate a little bit more focused a little bit more like you you're definitely thinking for the long term And you're thinking, these are scarce units. These are scarce gold bricks, as I like to call them, in digital form.
Starting point is 00:33:55 Scarce gold bits. Precisely. And I think that they improve people's personalities more towards sort of stoic ideals. And I think that is very, very good. because instead of like i mean as people like to say it reduces our time preference so we can dedicate ourselves to longer term projects and this is better because one undertaking that you will dedicate 10 years for will almost surely produce better results both for yourself and for the world than a hundred little things that you never finish or a hundred
Starting point is 00:34:35 little things that aren't really important yeah and we were talking about this on the elevator right up like how modern art has has even been bastardized by this fiat system and and you know we we don't make buildings we don't make statues we don't make glorious paintings like uh like michelangelo used to we don't do that anymore there's very few people that do if there are if they're out there and i haven't met them or seen them or seen their art in in person a lot of sort of um like keynesian economists monetarist economists like the central bank advisors etc a lot of academics in the sort of the economics and the social science sphere at large they believe that they can design a system from top down that is superior to anything that the
Starting point is 00:35:27 market can arrive to itself through an organic emergent and bottom-up approach and i believe the latter is superior. Money historically has been a creature of the market, not a creature of the state. If anything, that is the perversion. Because for thousands of years, we use silver, gold, and other forms of money that people eventually arrive to by natural means. Money being decreed from above is like the very fact that it needs to be supported by state decrees and legal tenders and um like debt extinguishing laws and all these things just is is obviously like an artificial form of support that makes certain institutions and certain governments much stronger than they otherwise would have been i would say stronger
Starting point is 00:36:21 i would just say like they just hold so much more leverage which i mean much more powerful exactly there's i think there's a difference between strength and power right right am i am i wrong saying that definitely by strength i mean there's a lot more power that that are they can exert it by their hands yeah it's uh it's not equivalent to respect it's uh equivalent more to like putting up with something exactly yeah exactly and what you're getting in there like talking about like top-down approach to monetary policy what we're seeing now in crypto and shit coins in particular is people trying to uh form fit top-down governance structures on how these these blockchains evolve what are your thoughts on governance and blockchains that's another thing
Starting point is 00:37:00 we have to debunk i think it's an interesting experiment on one hand we have this p2p anarchic network governance that sort of the bitcoin full nodes have uh and it's it's very distributed it's very slow almost to the point of dysfunction uh but it's very important to know that it's very apolitical and i believe that a the future neo money winner has to be as apolitical as possible i mean other central banks other foreign billionaires other people would only be interested in adopting something that is entirely apolitical um that is not controlled by a handful of people that's not um just being decided by like behind closed doors or anything like that that's not a plutarchy or or an oligarchy so to speak but um i think decred is an interesting experiment and
Starting point is 00:37:57 it's interesting to see how it will play out i'm kind of skeptical on the governance issue a lot of people have been putting out this quote-unquote governance hypothesis lately that oh if we have governance we can have any feature um but i mean i guess their value proposition is and i i would like to discuss sort of the store of value marketing after this but their their their value proposition is that if they have on-chain governance then they can be a lot more flexible faster and nimbler than bitcoin um and if it's five times faster than bitcoin in making decisions or evolving then it will essentially beat bitcoin due to its speed or whatever but a crowd's always right I don't think so I don't think so and not especially not when it comes to
Starting point is 00:38:49 these very complicated it is very complex both monetary and software systems at the same time that need the precision and understanding of a nuclear physicist I mean I'm not advocating for a pure dark technocracy or anything but But I believe that certain people understand the trade of space and the most favorable paths for evolution much better than the crowd. I would tend to agree. And I wouldn't even fall back on conceding decision-making to the technical experts. I would just say people can get lost in narratives and make terrible decisions in haste.
Starting point is 00:39:39 that can that can trip you up in the long run so i think this has to be emergent like we were talking about earlier the intolerant minority should run this because a conservatism and skepticism over everything is the wisest uh investment decision in this space in the long term i would argue yeah and the the decreds um some of the members of the decred founding team Their counter argument is that unlike a corrupt government or unlike a corrupt democratic system, here the incentives of large stakeholders, a.k.a. the decision makers, and sort of the small stakeholders, so the rich and the poor, they are aligned because they want the same thing, higher coin price. So the incentives are aligned. I don't know. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:40:27 I think it's an interesting experiment that we will witness. I obviously think Bitcoin is much more likely to succeed than Decred is. but um they had some sick sick sick starter jackets at consensus they look swagged out you know they look swagged out and uh decred is is one of my top five favorite projects in the space i like to say that other than the criteria that we've already discussed i think the number one criteria of any of these systems of any of these currencies of any of these blockchains is the quality of the team because none of us not even the smartest person in the space and definitely definitely not me, know what these, as I like to say, hybrid money software forms will look like
Starting point is 00:41:11 10, 15 years in the future. So the talent of the team, the passion of the team, the ideology of the team, the idealism of the team, and obviously the skills of the team, these are the most important factors because there's a lot of evolution that we are yet to see. And there's a lot of agility that is still required. There's a lot of problems and attacks that we'll need to fight off. I believe that all of these cryptocurrencies in the next decade will see attacks that are much more serious than the Bcash drama or the SegWit2x drama that we've seen. It will make the Bcash or the SegWit2x drama pale in comparison to what's coming. So I think the quality of the team is very important. And we need to look at people who
Starting point is 00:41:57 were involved in distributed systems in crypto anarchy in cryptography in um in trying to reinvent money some of these people have been trying to do it since the 90s uh or at least contributing to bits and pieces of the infrastructure because this has this is not a 10-year thing that we've had so far this has been a 40-year adventure 40-year affair um only sort of the advent of sort of this distributed systems has this finally been possible because there is no snake there's no head of a snake that's possible to cut off so easily exactly and that's like you were saying like we don't we can't even comprehend the attacks that are coming like the market right now can't even comprehend the attacks that are happening verge got 51 percent attacked and the price went up by
Starting point is 00:42:41 20 percent like we don't even know like the market doesn't even know what's secure and what's not right now these are the most inefficient markets that i've ever seen in my life right um the I believe Verge got 51% attacked and then it like pumped by 15% upwards yes I mean it just makes no sense
Starting point is 00:42:59 it's almost like people don't care anymore like I don't know I think a lot of these shit coins have a lot of passive investors who are just like whose like money is parked
Starting point is 00:43:07 in these coins as part of their 80 coin portfolio and like they're just like either can't keep up or maybe they just don't care I mean
Starting point is 00:43:16 I don't know so many people could have like a thousand dollars each in these coins multiplied by like 50 000 people and then and then it because the market caps are so inflated as well especially of the altcoins of the shit coins just because it says that oh it's a 300 million dollar network doesn't mean that there's 300 of real wealth parked there maybe like 40 million or
Starting point is 00:43:37 something maybe less yeah and even that like it's like i've said this in the past like it's all fun and games now like people are just trying to pump and dump shit coins make profit off of trading this stuff like we're really going to see bitcoin hit the scene in earnest when shit hits the fan on the geopolitical landscape like and it's like all right we don't even have time to fuck around with these shit coins and speculate like we really need a flight to safety and right now it's it's either gold or bitcoin and bitcoin's more accessible easier to transport and that's going to be the better value proposition in the future when geopolitical situation hits ahead well yeah there's two things that i'll say here if bitcoin unfortunately
Starting point is 00:44:23 hasn't seen like a hardcore deflationary session hit during its lifetime and we're in the middle of like a 10-year almost a 10-year bull run the equity bull run yeah um there's definitely at least something some kind of a crisis happening soon and i think that the tinder is dry it's getting hot out so it will be very interesting how bitcoin fares in that situation i think unfortunately in the eyes of most serious asset managers this still remains a speculative asset at one point because when we talk about sound money when we talk about hard money we're not talking about bitcoin right now but we're talking about the intrinsic qualities of the potential that it has to become in the future now for most of these asset managers and most of these asset
Starting point is 00:45:13 managers aren't libertarian crypto Austrian cypherpunks they don't care about these things they understandably they don't care about these ideals their life is fine they're already making tens of millions of dollars they like the status quo they want to some uncorrelated return or maybe a success story that will pan out in the future as a diverse diversification something you're a good risk return profile something like that but right now Now, Bitcoin, all cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin perhaps less so than everything else. Everything else is very speculative.
Starting point is 00:45:48 Bitcoin slightly less so because it has a much greater network effect, linear effect, etc. But I think that if we had a sharp deflationary recession, Bitcoin would be sold off as of today. Now, if we have a currency crisis, if we have major countries or a handful of major currencies countries like credit default or some kind of a treasury default or unable to pay their debt something like that then that would be very very positive that's that's what i was alluding to like so if we have like an equities correction people are going to have to sell their bitcoin to pay if there's a recession or something like that and the u.s dollar remains as the reserve currency of the world like yes people are going to sell their crypto for fiat to live and that
Starting point is 00:46:35 could be bad for the price of bitcoin but again in the long run like it comes back to currencies like if there's a currency crisis of a currency meltdown um i'm not going to try to predict it people have been trying to predict it for decades nobody knows when it will come but i do believe wholeheartedly that it's unsustainable in the long run the the policies that these central banks are following i mean i have to be honest dollar is a very strong currency yeah with very powerful network effect i'm not gonna argue that and the american central banking is much more skilled than most other countries than than second or third world countries japan did what the what the fed's been doing for the last 10 years they started doing that in the 90s
Starting point is 00:47:20 yes but japan has different demographic profile that's true completely different economy that's true um what the policy is very similar the point i'm trying to make is that bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies to be honest their quote-unquote enemy or their target market for the next 10 to 15 years isn't the dollar it's the tail end of weak fiat currencies around the world mismanaged fiat currencies small fiat currencies corrupt fiat currencies that are managed by central bankers that are unskilled that are straight up stealing or straight up essentially stealing from their citizenry by inflating the currency whenever they have any kind of problem as an easy exit out and monetary metals to an extent those are the things that
Starting point is 00:48:10 Bitcoin is attacking in my view and it's not a serious conversation to be having right now at for it to be displacing the dollar or the euro entirely but we still have tens of trillions of dollars of other things that we could subsume before it is before we are faced with much more serious currencies yeah the upward like and that's why people are investing in Bitcoin now is because like the upward potential of the price movement if that situation unfolds is astronomical besides I mean Bitcoin still has a hundred X 200 X to go or or more according to some the maximum list but your peers saying 10 million a coin
Starting point is 00:48:51 eventually well 10 million a coin makes sense if like dollar hyper inflates I mean the number doesn't even matter at that point yeah if you want to if you want to see what like Bitcoin price looks like in a hyper inflationary economy go to local bitcoins or coin dance coin dot dance and look up the the Venezuelan the the volume chart in Venezuelan Boulevard is for Bitcoin on on local bitcoins and that like that barely barely increased any bitcoin buying but it's hyperbolic in terms of bali bars yeah definitely definitely um i also will say that i mean if we if bitcoin goes to 1 million in like today's terms that's like a 21 trillion
Starting point is 00:49:39 which which is a lot which is a lot um but it's the size of the us economy or yeah and i believe like the m4 of the u.s dollar is like 30 trillion or 32 33 trillion or something um so i mean what's m4 cash and circulation yeah so like so this is like very loose so like i don't remember precisely but um m4 is like everything yeah circulation m0 is like cash or whatever the circulating one m1 is like you add some like some bank deposits m3 is like you add some like the shadow banking or whatever and like m4 is like everything yeah there's m5 as well but like i don't even know what that is there's some derivative stuff yeah well exactly yeah that's like what's safe and i were also talking about this this morning too is like the cpi and how it's been bastardized like
Starting point is 00:50:26 people these central bank figures will will just add variables that that make you think like oh everything's okay everything's okay but really they're just changing the underlying equation to hide inefficiencies? Well, the Federal Reserve hasn't even been reporting on some of these figures for like eight or nine years now. The M2 and M3,
Starting point is 00:50:50 or is it M3? That hasn't even been public information. And to be honest with you, this doesn't apply to America. This applies to every country. I don't believe a single data point that they're putting out. No.
Starting point is 00:51:00 I don't believe a single one. I only believe in the markets over the long term and human action and human desire. and whatever they end up choosing and whatever they end up pricing. But a lot of this data is distorted. A lot of the markets are no longer,
Starting point is 00:51:21 I mean, theoretically markets are supposed to be efficient pricing mechanisms or price discovery places. But all this like extreme central bank activity and their run towards creating a wealth effect around the world their indiscriminate buying of so many different assets has essentially stopped markets from being like efficient price mechanisms and now they're just inflated assets right like and there's good evidence out there that like the bank of japan
Starting point is 00:51:52 in particular is printing money and putting it right into japanese etfs and their stock markets like yeah i believe the bank of japan has already owns like 70 of the etf market in japan they're printing money and essentially like nationalizing the economy like slowly turning into the nationalized economy yeah but if you're a fucking trader like that's an easy trade oh the bank of japan is going to print money and push it into their etf market like let me buy some japanese etfs well that's why fixed supply money is so interesting because any kind of price that we would arrive to by using bitcoin would be pure right exactly do people want that though are we ready for a world yeah like a lot of people i'm realizing more and more that most people they
Starting point is 00:52:30 don't care about some money they don't care about decentralization they don't care about distributed systems they don't care about cyberpunk ideals they don't care about this and that and all this idealistic stuff so let's be honest what really matters and how can we what can we do to make this market go 10x make this market go 100x make bitcoin become a money of the future money of the internet um whether you like it or not the most powerful thing you can do is to convince wealthy and large asset managers and billionaires and high net worth individuals to put even 1%, to put even half a percent of their portfolios into these crypto assets. I was that junior analyst in 2013 screaming at the fund I worked for, we should be investing
Starting point is 00:53:19 in Bitcoin. Fiat currencies are going to die. We should be getting in Bitcoin. It's happening. It wasn't ready back then. It wasn't ready five, six years ago. but i think uh i think some managers in particular are willing to take it's in their risk appetite and they're going for it but i got laughed out of a i didn't get i mean i didn't get fired or
Starting point is 00:53:40 anything i quit but people looked at me like with cock eyes like what the hell are you fucking talking about i mean a lot of a lot of older people think that like this is still some some weird tokens that people buy weed on the internet with like but it's it it's not that i don't spend my bitcoin exactly and um i think honestly i think like a lot of these asset managers are very smart people and like they they can understand the systems they're on the side of the question they're very conservative uh they're very conservative of course they want a little bit more regulatory clarity they want more custodial solutions they want more time for research but once you see a famous billionaire or a handful of famous billionaire announced that
Starting point is 00:54:20 they put one percent of the portfolio in or like a handful of university endowments or a handful of serving wealth funds maybe even a handful of central banks but those will come later but once you yeah once some asset managers will go on record saying that they are bullish on this it's like they say it's slowly and then suddenly and then it will be a tipping point and then it was just a go parabolic yeah and you know what i think's holding it up right now is just like the due diligence and compliance that like being on uh a portfolio management team and had like we were a fund of funds or a 40-act fund of funds so we had to do a shit ton of compliance and due diligence trips like the amount of red tape that these funds need to get through before they
Starting point is 00:55:01 can invest in these types of assets like people don't understand and that's what like worries me about some of the crypto hedge funds out there i'm like do you have your like compliance and due diligence like lined up on the back end because this is like very very important and you cannot fuck up the due diligence and compliant aspect in particular and that's why i think institutional money has been hesitant to enter the space up to this point honestly i think like the value proposition of um a crypto hedge fund and i'm and yeah the value proposition of a crypto hedge fund is i increasingly don't even see it anymore because like at the end of unless you are an active trader unless you're a talented algorithmic trader or a talented active manager
Starting point is 00:55:48 talented volatility trader or whatever um at the end of the day like in the next two or three years some of especially if you're just a buy and hold crypto fund manager you're just going to be holding the same five six coins and so like why would you invest in that you if you're an asset manager you can go and buy these same five coins um in the stress of the stress of like all the compliance and shit that comes on the back end and having to hold other people's money just like exactly i mean they're some of them are some of them are really really good some of them are run by very very smart people but we're talking about like the top 10 percent or 10 to percent or top three top four funds honestly yeah some of them are really good and some of them have extremely smart people
Starting point is 00:56:30 working on uh they're um extremely smart savvy researchers but a lot of the crypto hedge funds most of the crypto hedge funds are just glorified custodians and you're paying them 2 and 20 per year to three and 30 and summit to do it yeah three instances yeah it's like um i i somebody was joking so for you for you freaks out there that don't know what two and twenty and three and thirty is so whenever you invest in a hedge fund you have fees that you have to pay a two percent management fee which you have to pay no matter what and then a 20 profit fee so if the fund makes profit they get 20 of the money that they made for you actually uh irregardless of their hardcore shilling of decred i really like placeholders model which is more of like a vc
Starting point is 00:57:12 than a hedge fund placeholder is chris bernuski and joel monagra yeah um but um i i like that they have like 10 year lockups and they can essentially take a lower time preference view on things they can be they can like uh engage more with the entrepreneurs and the founders that they're engaging with and i believe like their their fees are lower on their fees and some of fees are fixed when compared to some of these crypto hedge funds which allows the lps to compound their wealth faster and yeah i think it's a better approach yeah um this is a topic i i feel comfortable diving into you we're too young young bucks here do you ever i worry like are we are we just naive like are we naive or is this like real like uh i'm 27 you're 23 like who are we to to
Starting point is 00:58:07 evangelize this technology like are we just dumb young millennials no i think i think it's coming and i think it's we can only be wrong on timing uh it can take like a lot longer than we hope it will but it will come because um like fiat currencies and gold are essentially the best as they can be already but these forms of money will only keep improving they'll keep being better they'll keep being faster they'll keep being more programmable they'll keep being more secure hopefully more private and there will be a lot more things that you can do with them there'll be a lot more things that you can do on top of them and they'll simply i believe they are a 10x improvement over existing monetary instruments and this this this gap will keep increasing
Starting point is 00:58:51 because the existing monetary instruments have saturated their potential. While cryptocurrencies, honestly, this is only the beginning of the journey and they'll keep getting better. They'll keep getting bigger. And this is the new asset class. I actually don't like to think of it as a new asset class.
Starting point is 00:59:07 I think it's a replacer. A replacer? A replacer for many of the monetary instruments. I've been harping on new asset class for a while. Why do you say replacer? Because it's zero sum. Even though at this small scale, it doesn't it doesn't look that way but um if these go into trillions then they can only go
Starting point is 00:59:31 into trillions if fiat and monetary instruments go lower there's only so much like money and monetary instruments and wealth in the world so for bitcoin or for any other coin to go into 40 trillion 50 trillion that would mean that there's less wealth parked into in fiat currencies and There's less wealth parked in gold, silver, and all these like short term money market funds, bonds, etc. So it's kind of zero sum. I mean, people like to say, oh, there's going to be an expansionary effect because but like expansionary effects aside, it's zero sum. For Bitcoin to go into 50 trillion, this same 50 trillion needs to come from other monetary instruments. And that's been my investment thesis since 2012 is we're going to see a great, I've been calling it a great rotation into cryptocurrencies from traditional financial assets.
Starting point is 01:00:18 yeah it's essentially going to like suck the value in yeah hopefully and uh but it's always good to question because like people think we're crazy you know like people think we're absolutely crazy getting into this stuff but i do truly believe in it and i think a good example is this like you were talking about like the financialization of traditional assets has just gotten to such a point where it's just like not viable and on a longer term scale like look at deutsche bank right now they have the biggest derivative exposure in the world and they're trending towards zero their stock prices and smaller profits than binance six month old right so twitchy bank a 230 year old bank was less profitable than binance a six month old
Starting point is 01:01:01 crypto exchange in the first quarter this year i think that um bitcoin and maybe a handful of other like blockchain based projects will unbundle a lot of wall street eventually Yeah, what do you mean by on the low? Some of the rent-seeking that they are engaging in right now, those profit margins will collapse because everything will be algorithmic. Everything will be based on distributed ledgers and based off of some of these smart contracts, I believe.
Starting point is 01:01:34 They will be useful in some respects. And I mean, banks won't disappear because some people will want them for custody. Some people want them for advisory, mergers and acquisitions. I mean, these sort of sell-side services will remain. But I think these algorithmic software-based systems will increasingly pose as very, very fierce competition. And having a monetary unit underlie these systems will be a feedback loop. They'll make the system stronger, and the systems will make the monetary unit stronger.
Starting point is 01:02:07 yeah that's why i like to say that like in the short to medium term uh things like ethereum and all these smart contracts i believe they're good for bitcoin because um like each of these crypto kitty or auger platforms they'll bring in more new people and hopefully um the big chunk of this wealth will end with will end up in bitcoin which is a store of value yeah and that's uh that's one thing i've been hearing more and more lately is that like people will find ethereum first because it's the easiest to build on and stuff like that because all the dabs gambling that's prediction that's a car the rule decentralized roulette and they figure out how decentralized google docs but they'll figure out how like insecure it is and they'll eventually
Starting point is 01:02:51 fall like all right i want to work on the most secure dumbed down protocol right and it makes sense like and so let's get into that like that platforms and stuff like that like again i do appreciate them as much as i hate on ethereum and all these i i hate out of love let me let me just make this clear to you freestyler i hate out of love because i want the best out of everybody but i do strongly believe that we will have dap platforms in the future they'll just be software that you can plug bitcoin into as fuel and just execute contracts precisely right well exactly so i um i i don't hate that platforms i think daps and smart contracts are very cool very useful they will be a thing
Starting point is 01:03:32 they're just not going to be the store of value right exactly there's going to be software that enables people to put
Starting point is 01:03:40 Bitcoin in and as soon as an event happens distribute it one way or the other especially with their move to proof of stake so it's a very
Starting point is 01:03:47 interesting like another loop I guess it could be positive or negative a proof of stake system because it's secured by the
Starting point is 01:03:56 money itself and not by external hash power a proof of stake system can only be secure if it's if the underlying token is very valuable but as i believe the underlying token can only be highly valuable if it's becomes seen and used as a store of value but for something to be a store of value it needs to be very secure so like it's kind of like a circular logic maybe
Starting point is 01:04:18 they can like they essentially bootstrapped off of proof of work and now they want to attempt to do the switcheroo but we will see if price of ethereum collapses it's a very insecure system because it will be very cheap to attack it yeah um only if it only if the price keeps climbing will it remain a secure system and this applies to essentially all proof of stake systems they need to be very valuable to be secure well let's jump into this like the supply of ether is vitalic very publicly stated i believe in 2016 that the supply should not go over 100 million and we found out this week that it's at 120 million already well it passed 100 million this morning past 100 million this morning excuse me yes and then he came out and said it shouldn't go above 120 million
Starting point is 01:05:04 so this is like it it's like to let it's uh and what book was it it's the black swan i believe it was the black swan the black swan where nassim taleb says a project if you set a due date of 50 days and it comes to the 50th day and you don't hit it your project gets extended to 100 days and if you get to 100 days and you don't hit hit your your project isn't finished it's going to take you a thousand days to get it and like that's what reminds me of ethereum moving to proof of stake from proof of work is that they've been saying and saying and saying it's going to happen where it's getting to a point where it may never happen
Starting point is 01:05:41 because they just aren't able to do it. How come they haven't moved? I believe they can only compete with Bitcoin if they put a hard cap. But even so, their monetary policy isn't as credible and their blockchain isn't as credible as Bitcoin's. I can list three dozen things
Starting point is 01:05:58 that it's not as good as Bitcoin. We got 36 things to list right now. Get into it. I'm kidding. I can list some if you want. Go for it. List some. What's your top three or four? Well, obviously, I think it's a much more secure system.
Starting point is 01:06:13 I think Bitcoin's Lindy effect is very, very powerful. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage. It has the highest market capitalization. It has the highest liquidity. It has the highest credibility of monetary policy, highest scarcity, highest popularity, highest brand recognition, highest censorship resistance, highest distribution of ownership, Highest robustness of code, I would argue. One of the most, if not the best team in the space working on it.
Starting point is 01:06:48 Highest level of financialization with the futures and the options. I would say the strongest cult, the most intense cult. Hey, we're not a cult. I mean, I say cult and a good thing. Cults are good for cryptocurrencies because they need very intense bootstrapping to compete. right um and like the highest infrastructure support um yeah i mean and i and i like the conservative and the and in the prudence of the developers i like to say that the carefulness the almost like the ocd like the thoughtfulness and thoroughness of the developers is why it's
Starting point is 01:07:21 a good store of value yeah like when the bitcoin devs were working on implementing segwit they tested it so thoroughly that they found a flaw in uh ssl security like online yeah they they do their work they do their work so good that they they fix other people's work right exactly and again for you freaks out there that may love these move fast and break thing blockchains like i just don't think for money in particular and for these protocols in particular it's not the best mindset to have we're we're already building some 100 billion dollar networks we're trying to achieve trillion dollar 10 trillion dollar networks this isn't like a dating app this isn't a food delivery app this is not a social network you fast move fast and break things doesn't work
Starting point is 01:08:06 here you need uh you're it's like you're building a submarine a nuclear submarine it's very it's like heart surgery it's very important exactly be very careful exactly and i go back once again it's high time preference people want people want the chocolate now they want it fast they want it right now with extra sugar well and that's another thing i was talking about with safe this morning is that people are just born into the system and thrown into it they're so used to it they have their tendencies and it's hard to change you know people like just the way the world works i've read research that between 2005 and 2015 are like short-term attention spans have like collapsed since like from 20 seconds to like six seconds or something
Starting point is 01:08:46 really yeah what was this study like well so because it makes sense to me because of because of the fast pace of the internet because of um this like sugarification of junk food because of everything being at the at the like tip of our fingers essentially i like to say this confluence of uberification tinderification pornification sugarification of culture has like essentially made us impatient has essentially made us everybody's like ocd and add right now nobody can concentrate on anything for more than five minutes and we've been in here for an hour and 10 minutes having a beautiful conversation i've been enjoying it indeed and no i agree like can we change this up like can we revert is it even a reversion that's what i would ask like is it
Starting point is 01:09:34 reversion or is it an evolution to you have to fight the currents and the strongest individuals have to fight the currents i believe as i've said a sound form of money a sound form of financial monetary institutions will improve the situation somewhat but at the end of the day i am a hyper individualist uh everybody uh has to focus on their own goals and has to i believe in trying to find win-win situations and do and build things that benefit both yourself and others um and like that's why i think capitalism works better than these like social assistance because it aligns incentives better uh it rewards you if you provide society with something of value yeah i mean there's no debate there's no debate no i mean there's no debate it's not like
Starting point is 01:10:18 one's better than the other like it's not like oh maybe one is better it is like one is better than the other like and that it's just like and it's a mat it's it's basically a simulation of nature right like you're just figuring out things organically of course i mean capitalism aligns with i believe it aligns with evolution much more closely than any of the top down like god syndrome god complex these systems yeah like you talk about like fishing farms and tanks and monoculture on small farms like what happens to them like you try to you try to basically confide the production of fish or food to one certain geological area and like try to make it like repeatable and repeatable instead of letting nature take its course and you get
Starting point is 01:11:12 fucked up fish fucked up food you get arid land it's uh you just gotta let nature take its course and i think capitalism does that well and i believe bitcoin even takes it to a whole nother level well that's what i like to say exactly i like to say that bitcoin will essentially make socialism impossible or very much harder because you cannot you're not i'm not fucking you're not taking my bitcoin to pay for a socialist government exactly and i mean for something to to have like a socialist or god forbid communist system you the government needs to have a control of money control of currency and like marx in his manifesto he wrote that like the number one thing is to take full nationalized central banking and to have a sole monopoly on the money supply i mean of course
Starting point is 01:11:52 the government's like that it gives them so much power um i believe that the institution of central banking and fiat currency is the strongest institution in the world i mean it allows so so much so much power so much power so much waste inefficiency bureaucracy like the bureaucracy that's what see that's what i think people are getting most pissed off about is a bureaucracy like people again like going back to this the short attention span things like maybe it is maybe these central planners have dug their own graves because they've built a system where we're so like we want results fast fast fast and they're so monolithic that they can't move as fast that we're asking that people are now starting to look for alternatives and maybe the alternative
Starting point is 01:12:36 is reversion to to a sound system where there is no top-down structure to tell you what to do precisely and like they think they can design or they think they can design a system where and it was going to achieve exactly the result that they want but it's such a chaotic unpredictable multi-variable world and like this is what austrian economists like mises or hayek have always been writing about like in a very loose metaphor if you give a government one billion dollars or you give a thousand talented individuals a million dollars each which one do you think is going to spend it or invest it more productively of course it's going to be one thousand talented people with a million each because they are essentially they are decentralized
Starting point is 01:13:20 not in the sense of blockchain like they're they have the information in their local community local structure and they can achieve they can see the inefficiencies and the opportunities and like the local sort of like this this price inefficiencies much more effectively and they can create i believe invest and create products much better than a government bureaucracy by the time one billion dollars is spent like probably half of it is just going to be wasted through inefficiencies bureaucracy and these government employees which are clearly not as good as private sector employees exactly and you see this let's uh let's harp on this example with the u.s education system like public schooling in america in particular you do not go to public school care
Starting point is 01:14:06 growing up but to get funding at public schooling like you have like there's there's standardized tests called standardized testing and to get funding your students have to get a certain grade on these tests like in aggregate and basically these teachers instead of trying to teach their students what they want to learn or what they might need to learn they're they're teaching for these fucking standardized tests and it's fucking making everyone dumber i would say in the long run like and just let these local like maybe maybe somebody in iowa or illinois or kansas might want to learn more about farming because there's more farming land around maybe you let those students go learn about more about that kids in the cities maybe they want to learn
Starting point is 01:14:51 more about finance accounting shit like that make them go learn about that or let them go learn about that but instead we have a standardized testing world where everybody's teaching for the test and it's just like it's a bureaucrat bureaucratic top-down system that makes everybody dumber in the long run yeah you're essentially just studying for six years just to beat some number on a piece of paper instead of uh instead of studying something you either enjoy or something that's actually valuable or something that's actually productive i'm a strong believer in apprenticeships actually i am too yeah and i believe like when you are doing like an internship or a couple of internships or just working somewhere for a year you'll learn more than
Starting point is 01:15:30 like five years at a school yeah that's why i was so happy to go to school in chicago because i was able to take night classes and work during this so i started working full-time i think my junior year in college and i've learned more in the workforce than i did at school but i did have to go to school and get the grades and shout out to my sister love you ave she's a ceramicist and i'm pretty pretty sure i'm close to convincing her to go get an apprenticeship with a potter to like become really good at her craft she's already incredible at what she does but her time is better spent learning from an expert than going to spend like 80 grand for an art school i'm i'm pretty sure you're correct yeah i'm making money you're not going into debt honestly i'm kind of skeptical
Starting point is 01:16:15 on higher education and because like unless you're studying to be a doctor or you're studying something highly technical like physics or computer engineering or something like that i don't know man these like a lot of these especially a lot of these people studying these social sciences you can just study it on your own without spending a quarter million dollars we learn by ourselves like no one cares about you as much as you can care about yourself so at the end of the day it's on you and even the best students their best learning comes from after class on their own just focusing staring into the book staring into the material it's not the granted from above or anything like that no and um yeah like what's like the pricing for some
Starting point is 01:16:58 of this education is just absurd i mean it is asinine like so if you look at this like inflation deflation that's interesting thing if you look at the markets where the government isn't really involved like technology um as you can see computers are getting cheaper uh clothing is getting phones are getting cheaper clothing is getting cheaper but health care is health care is in america is a disaster it's a disaster health care we need to implode it and just start from scratch uh health care education like pharmaceutical all these like medical things they're they're a total disaster and you see like all these things are going red going high and all these things going slowly slowly blue and the slow blue like slow deflationary effect is like
Starting point is 01:17:36 at equilibrium outside of government regulations government intervention capitalism and technology let alone both those things two together they are deflationary phenomena yeah and that's how it's supposed to be you're supposed to do be doing things cheaper and faster and better and competition natural competition that's unhindered through all these licenses all these taxes or you have to get a permit this you have to get 12 permits there you have to get my signature there it doesn't make any sense and the most fucked up part about it is the things that are getting most inflated are the things that people need most which is like food health care education right housing housing too throw housing in there right it's fucked up right doesn't make any sense like
Starting point is 01:18:13 and then then the fed tries to piss on your face and tell you it's raining be like hey cpi has been at like 1.7 percent consistently for the last seven years so why do you think these like one bedroom apartments in san francisco cost two three million dollars right it's like san francisco has the potential to be the next tokyo if they only just like allow people to expand and come like real estate firms and these builders to compete like it could be the next big thing it could be shang like shanghai but instead like all these like extra licensing all these laws all these people saying oh we don't want this we don't want that that's why it just hinders potential how do we unleash this potential marad that's what i want to know hyper bitcoinization will
Starting point is 01:18:54 purify us all do you think hyper bitcoinization is possible probable uh it will take longer than what what hyper bitcoinization supporters think per part but something like it will happen yeah how do you see playing out um as i've said gradually at first and then suddenly and um so this is the thing like once bitcoin goes into this 10 trillion dollar territory it will like its volatility will slowly start to subside um one of the problems with bitcoin right now just like you said like i'm not spending my bitcoin there are disincentives to spend because there's still 100x plus ahead but once it's at 10 trillion the highest it can ever go from here let's be realistic is what like 30 40 trillion or whatever i mean at that point
Starting point is 01:19:47 more and more people will start to spend because all you have left is 3x 4x at most which is like okay to lose out on 100x you don't want to lose out on nobody wants to be the pizza guy right so um we need to get to that phase and that phase does require bootstrapping that phase does require speculation um new forms of money don't come about so often and that's why it's a slow road millennia precisely millennia uh you know what they say it's the greatest wealth transfer in millennia yeah which probably is again it's gonna be a great rotation like i that was my first ever investment thesis was like hey i believe there's gonna be a great rotation from these fiat currencies and traditional finance financial assets to these cryptocurrencies
Starting point is 01:20:30 that's precisely why i say that particularly bitcoin like i used to be like a multi-coiner like oh my god they're all gonna take over the world but as time goes on you're it's like undeniable well that's why pio shard started bitcoin advisory and that's why i say that like convincing asset managers and high net worth individuals to invest to invest some is one of the one of the highest leverage things you can do yeah because let's be honest like this libertarian austrian crypto anarchist cypherpunk money is already in the market and it's already saturated their attention and their wealth is already saturated in the market right now we need institutions to come for the market to explode there's no other way and
Starting point is 01:21:11 slowly but surely slowly but surely and then suddenly so this is how i like to think about it like every instance in the next 20 years every instance of a currency crisis every instance of hyperinflation even higher than expected inflation every instance of government acting too authoritarian every instance of like bank defaults every instance of bond defaults uh wealth appropriation some billionaires getting thrown in prison something like all these things will will create more and more Bitcoin fans will create more and more cryptocurrency fans because it allows you to hold wealth in an unseizable manner so I mean I guess this is like one of the many factors but the more bad
Starting point is 01:21:54 things that come from governments around the world and the more bad things that come from Wall Street or financial systems around the world the more people will believe algorithms instead of people because algorithm is much harder to corrupt uh it's apolitical and it's apolitical it's neutral um it's it doesn't have laziness it doesn't have greed it doesn't have um like all these emotions that humans are prone to and i mean everybody in like if you look at the graph of young people's trust in their government it's been like cascading it's literally like a diagonal down yeah so and it will keep going down and like i can only speak for myself or maybe my generation but we already trust algorithms more than people
Starting point is 01:22:36 and that's fine yes and this is another it's a little bit of a tangent here to this conversation but this is one thing we touched on the first time we met for drinks a couple months ago um so you came from soviet russia correct uh yes i am from azerbaijan azerbaijan and so the cio the chief investment officer of the fund i worked for was also from soviet russia like he was on pace to be a russian cosmonaut and what really woke my like woke me up and really made me be like holy shit maybe bitcoin is a thing was one day we were sitting there and we were just having a conversation talking investment thesis and we got on a tangent about orwellian orwell uh hypothetical orwellian future and i'll never forget it dimitri looked me in the eye and he was like i grew up in soviet
Starting point is 01:23:26 russia like i i moved to the states in 94 and you'll never believe the sense of freedom i felt when i was walking through the airports like i cried the first time i walked to an american airport because i felt so free there was nobody there checking me or looking at me or surveilling me and i felt so free i can't explain the the feeling of freedom that i felt in that moment and he looked me dead in the eyes was like since 2001 since after 9-11 america is slowly and slowly and slowly been reminding me more of what it was like to to live in soviet russia with the tsa and the government cracking down and the federal reserve policies and that patriot act nsa yeah and that's what woke me up was like holy shit like what is happening right now like are we
Starting point is 01:24:11 frogs boiling in water and we just don't notice it and that's what drove me even further into bitcoin was like all right just in case we are like i need this sovereign currency and it's crazy because people don't think about it in real time so like i don't know if i'm bringing up anything personal or anything but like what was like can you speak to that at all or um to be honest like i'm from azerbaijan and it's like pretty free these days so like i can't complain yeah um but i do see sort of some of like the american government has certainly been getting like bigger and more influential in people's lives obviously as we've seen uh like it seems that like when compared to like the mccarthy's days or whatever it's like
Starting point is 01:24:58 not as much but i think they're just getting better at like doing it in the dark you know yeah yeah yeah and it's like so you have jeff bezos in washington state in california about to sell contracts to do facial recognition shit like they're like they're doing in china dude that's dystopian stuff man right dude that's why like look like i'm a mild bitcoin maximalist but i come on come full on i do i do like some of the privacy coins as well um in the age of like ai interacting with each other and robots paying each other and like all these like millions of financial transactions per second around the world um you want privacy man because otherwise it becomes a dystopian system like i'm not comfortable with joe levin a chain analysis
Starting point is 01:25:43 an elliptic like tracking my every move you know like of course we have we have hopes for this situation resolving itself on bitcoin and if it does it has to be very big development um but zcash which i think is is the most promising uh biggest zcash bull i've ever met by the way yeah which which i believe is is is the most promising privacy coin it's only like it's a Here, like if you go on ChainFX, it's 2050 diluted market cap. It's only 3% of Bitcoins, which I think is undervalued. It should be at least 10%, 15%. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:26:23 At least. Yeah. And like, as I've mentioned, but I didn't elaborate in the beginning of the show, I believe in what I call the fat money thesis. and i used to think and this is like a very big discussion among people in the community right now is this currency market going to be winner take most or winner take all so when you take most let's say there's going to be three or four winners which go in like a power law 70 2010 kind of distribution um and or is it going to be winner take all with the winner being like 95
Starting point is 01:27:02 percent and i'm increasingly thinking it's the latter like at the end of the day we'll probably only have one form of money uh a lot of hedge funders a lot of shit coiners a lot of multi coiners poly chainers they don't like this narrative because um they don't like this narrative because if this narrative is true there's not enough money to be made and if if in six months all asset managers around the world agree that bitcoin is sound money and bitcoin is the winner then hedge fund makes no sense and like the reason we have us dollar and euro and jpy and yuan right now is because of borders is because of the different trade regulations sanctions governments um things like like tariffs uh once again taxes quotas because of all these
Starting point is 01:27:53 artificial things but in the digital borderless realm you don't need five currencies like you only need one monetary standard and having one unified monetary standard is better for everyone it's better for all trading partners around the world it's better for all price mechanisms around the world i can travel to japan i can travel to cambodia and buy my fruit for the same exact type of money and all these like utility tokens are probably the biggest scam in the history of mankind let's dive into utility 99.9 of them are absolute shit they will all collapse they will all bleed to death i hope that this current bear cycle that we will in will have a flight to quality effect all these ice 99.95 percent of icos have been somewhere between a scam a fundraising exit
Starting point is 01:28:46 vaporware or good intention but useless it's been somewhere between here um i've i i believe like the work token model like it's like a medallion like a taxi medallion uh augur keep new cypher they have this which essentially like you it's like a license like you buy a license and then um you can perform the work like that kind of makes sense but it doesn't matter i was gonna say augur is maybe like the only one yes exactly yeah like a profit sharing scheme they launch less than a month from now july 8th or 9th we can only hope yeah but let's see what happens with the ethereum network let's hope they don't have another crypto kitty moment um but yeah at the end of the day
Starting point is 01:29:27 it doesn't matter because what matters is the reinvention of money that's the biggest I like to say in terms of total addressable market in terms of money
Starting point is 01:29:34 to be made for us as investors and in terms of potential for socio-economic change and socio-economic consequences all this shit pales in comparison to the reinvention of money
Starting point is 01:29:44 and now we can we can discuss of course whether it's going to be Bitcoin whether it's going to be Ethereum whether it's going to be something else
Starting point is 01:29:51 that's the winner but there's I believe there's going to be one like Like, in the short and medium term, there's going to be a lot of shit coin, a soup of shit coinery, as I like to say. There's going to be a lot of, quote, unquote, experiments. Man, come on.
Starting point is 01:30:04 Don't be so judgy. We're all just learning here. We're all just experimenting, bro. Bro, let the free market decide. I get that a lot. I get that a lot. Come on. Don't you like free markets?
Starting point is 01:30:14 But it's like, ah. Yeah, but anyways. I like free markets to the extent that people aren't scamming people. But you know what? I actually, like, I used to think that, but now I think let them be scammed. I'm completely on your side. them burn let them get burned and maybe in the next set maybe their children won't get burned because they will get told or maybe the neck their younger
Starting point is 01:30:32 brother won't get burned because it will only invest in sound cryptocurrencies with sound teams who are not scammers yeah at the end of the day I think like people will come to a list of like five and six cryptocurrencies that are essentially competing for to be the big star of our winner and that's it yeah I would I would concur I agree like and like but there's so much noise out there like people love the vc app culture of hey spray and pray like we're just going to put our money behind a bunch of different teams it's like cnbc africa or cnbc crypto trader it's like he says in order to be sufficiently the correlations are 0.82 he says in order to be sufficiently
Starting point is 01:31:13 diversified in crypto markets you need to have between 70 and 80 coins oh fuck yourself and he He said, yeah, most of these will fail, but some of these altcoins will do 10,000x. We're at a dawn of a new era. This is going to be bigger than the internet, and we're going to have a blockchain for every website. We're going to have a blockchain for every database. Dude, the herd is coming. The virus is spreading. The gangrene is spreading.
Starting point is 01:31:42 Oh, my God. That's so asinine. like to think of like the logistical infrastructure you would need for that it's just like there's scammers everywhere freaks be careful they're coming for your bitcoin there's no panacea for for tech problems out there like this is this is a monetary phenomena again it only happens once every few millennia and there's a lot of confusion out there like a lot of people trying to apply bad heuristics to or good heuristics in some areas but bad heuristics in this arena uh to bitcoin and it's just completely different it's confusing the fuck
Starting point is 01:32:21 out of people people are confused they don't know what to what to think and i would i would encourage everybody like i did this morning with safety and please read up on monetary history like you need to know your history you need to know your history read up on monetary history well you have to you don't have a choice because uh just like cypherian says hard money isn't a choice like you have to either choose the best money of the future correctly or you're going to lose money right it's it's binary it's binary and to be honest with you like um i think bitcoin and hyper or just like the success of any cryptocurrency will create massive inequality that's just that's just that's just sad and true sad but true but it's just i'm not trying to be prescriptive i'm
Starting point is 01:33:14 just trying to be predictive and descriptive i agree but i would say that inequality would be better than the inequality that we have now because the investments that would be made would be in in longer term like you're not gonna have conspicuous consumption well exactly and And obsolescence. Bitcoin was never about destroying inequality. Bitcoin was about creating money that other people can't inflate. Yes. And so even if you don't have any Bitcoin and even if you get paid a little bit of Bitcoin,
Starting point is 01:33:42 at least you can know that nobody can decay your wealth. Exactly. And that's what it's all about. If anything, your wealth will actually slightly grow with the speed of the economy. Exactly. And at the end of the day, it all comes down to how personally motivated you are to put yourself in a better place. And if you're willing to have a long-time preference and save the little bit of Bitcoin that you make in the future, it will appreciate it over time. As more and more fiat currencies disappoint their holders, more and more people will find themselves buying Bitcoin.
Starting point is 01:34:14 Yeah, it's a natural progression, I would argue. We're an hour and a half in. Anything else you want to touch on? um i mean yeah this is this is pretty much it i think that the space is moving like look i think that there's going to be a lot of interesting use cases and there's going to be a lot of really cool projects really cool software coming out new consensus mechanisms new technologies whatever but at the end of the day i think what there will be like a convergence there will be a flight to quality these thousand shit coins that we have right now they will
Starting point is 01:34:54 die most of them will die imagine like walking around New York and having to pay different currency in each different store right that's a nightmare and I got my shake Shake Shack bucks I want to get a chop though I gotta I gotta convert them to chop dollars this makes no sense it makes no sense um so I hate they're all gonna be converted in the back end though you're not even gonna see it yeah exactly like they say dude it's all gonna be it's all like uh there's going to be token abstraction it's all gonna be so okay like if there's going to be token abstraction why not just use bitcoin well if there's going to be token abstraction that means the price of your
Starting point is 01:35:29 shit coins will go down even faster um so i think that so i think in the i actually think in the short to medium term all these shit coins will be mostly shit coins will be replaced by stable coins and if hyper bitcoinization ever happens they will be using bitcoin yeah let's talk about stablecoins that'll be our last topic so a lot of people don't believe in them i think that i think i'm skeptical i think that will work i know you do um i disclosure i'm an investor in a couple of stablecoin projects um but this is my issue um now i'm not a b cacher obviously but it says that peer-to-peer cash on the on the white paper and i believe that um bitcoin as of right now it's better to view it as digital gold metaphorically speaking yes and it's better for it to saturate
Starting point is 01:36:19 that store of value essentially digital commodity space first before we use as digital like as a day-to-day currency but it will be another 7 to 15 years before bitcoin is stay big liquid and stable enough to be used as day-to-day currency yeah and i think until then um stable coins are necessary because they're like a synthetic dollar or some of them even want to peg to the cpi or whatever but they're like they want to peg to the cpi yeah please don't let them do that well they would have their own cpi okay that is not like government mandated but will the cpi be be static for at least a decade um it's like they almost every stablecoin projects is starting off the variables within the cpi would that be static for a decade like weighted statically or i can't
Starting point is 01:37:08 speak on their behalf because all these details are tbd yeah for the next five to seven years all the stable coins want to peg to the dollar because that's just easier um you have to think of stable coins as synthetic dollars that can get in and out of countries borderlessly so capital controls collapse i understand and you you you will need them for daps and you will need them for all these things i agree but like what does an investment get you like they're stable like they're not supposed to increase or decrease in value that's true uh some of the stablecoin projects have like it's an equity investment and they like they pay you whenever they expand the supply or whatever something like that okay you think you have to think of them as private central
Starting point is 01:37:46 banks okay um in a way like all cryptocurrencies are private central banks it's just that bitcoin's monetary policy is like ruthless this is it's like it doesn't give a shit yeah so it will take it it needs time the thing is that bitcoin is the soundest money ever invented and i believe it's currency that's most likely to succeed and it's also my biggest holding uh but it will take time for it to uh be stable enough to be used as a currency and if for any reason hyper bitcoinization doesn't occur stable coins could be useful yeah um also um the um i forgot what i was going to say well i'll come in and do a rebuttal to stable coins which is like nothing's stable stable coins are only stable until they're not and it's a it's a hot
Starting point is 01:38:39 potato musical chairs type game you you just don't want to be left holding the bag when hits the fan because stable coins are susceptible to black swan events and as the definition of black swan event dictates you can't predict them it's hard to say for sure um there's definitely a lot of risks involved and they're definitely going to be fragile especially early on it really depends on the design of the stable coin and it depends on the kind of um reserve or algorithmic or any kind of other kind of backing that is backing it as long as the reserve is bigger than the stable coins outstanding it will be fine and um if a stable coin grows to like half a trillion or a trillion dollars of course this is like it's going to take
Starting point is 01:39:24 years but if that ever happens then it will be stable by the property of people using it just like a lot of fiat currencies are stable yeah so like the bigger it goes the more robust it becomes of course i do agree with you however that in the early years they are very fragile animals yeah um so what i wanted to say is i remembered is um all of these currencies and like especially like fixed supply these ones that have to get bootstrapped from like store value and then to minimum change or whatever um yes they have the properties of the soundest money ever invented the hardest currency ever invented but money at the end of the day is a social contract of sorts and it's an abstraction it's almost like a contractual agreement and you will accept bitcoin if i will
Starting point is 01:40:10 accept bitcoin and i will accept bitcoin if you will accept bitcoin and we'll both accept it if we see that it's trading at like $200,000 or whatever, right? But these humans move a lot slower than software. And culture, as you can see, changes a lot slower than technology. And it will take time. The best, even the best case scenario, and hyper-disadvantaged transition does occur or whatever,
Starting point is 01:40:36 is going to take time for people to come around, for people to see the value in the uninflatability, for people to learn about this technology like i advise all my friends like study this for six months before even buying one like right uh because like this is like they're very new and it's like a different paradigm almost um so almost it is a different it's a different paradigm yeah um you almost need to like like fully immerse yourself before kind of understanding everything and like i've been i've been looking at this for like two or three years and still like i don't think i've scratched even five percent of the surface oh the more you know the less you know
Starting point is 01:41:13 precisely it's insane like i thought i have like 2014 2015 i thought i was fucking my shit didn't stink i knew what was gonna happen then you just like like i remember like before bcash forked off or excuse me bch forked off like people were like hard forking was taboo it's like if you hard fork the network's gonna go to shit like nothing like it's completely going to collapse like you can never hard fork and now we've got we've got an index of hard forks that that numbers in the 80s i believe and we survived and i learned that i did not know what i thought i knew well if i don't know so i lived in china during the previous bubble 2013 2014 and that's like it was my first kind of like foray into the bitcoins and stuff um but um i don't know if you remember like before
Starting point is 01:42:03 the whole icr craze we had like a pre-mine craze oh yeah yeah and um like pre-mine used to be taboo like it used to be if you pre-mine then like that's a shit coin but now pre-mine is like a weekly occurrence that is what that is how you raise money now it's fucking yeah pre-mining your shitty toad that's what hedge funds invest in too the pre-mines well yeah you get a discount and they could dump it at a 20 growth or at a 20 markup immediately as it hits an exchange bro masternodes tokenomics crypto economics your mechanism design but do we need multiple algorithms on this uh proof of work chain right yeah and that's like verge dead but like like people like freaking out about verge now remember myriad coin did you ever like it's a myriad coin
Starting point is 01:42:50 that was their whole fucking uh marketing piece was like hey we had multiple is it like kind of like digibyte with like five algorithms yeah exactly it's like digibyte yeah they had similar things happening like 51 i honestly like i can't believe so many of these things are so overvalued they're ridiculously over that's what i said they should all be zero yeah they should be yeah but the market is the market's still learning this is this is what i like to say and i think people are coming around to this hopefully more and more there are in terms of cryptocurrencies or aspiring cryptocurrencies there is like essentially fewer than six or seven non-scams i would wholeheartedly agree i would even say less yeah there's probably less you can hear
Starting point is 01:43:35 me slurring my words now i think we finished that bottle of bourbon fifth of bourbon not a whole bottle but um we're almost we're getting up to two hours here we're at an hour 45 minutes do you have a parting note for the freaks out there like what would you say as somebody who's written two prolific papers this year not papers but publications I truly love
Starting point is 01:44:00 them you and Adam did an incredible job on them thank you no thank you for writing them because that's something that's been in my mind for a while like somebody just needs to understand like the different factions and then the history of it like the past and present was just an equal equally as prolific
Starting point is 01:44:16 as the four faces well you know there's nothing better again people need to know your history there's nothing better than starting my mornings with my daily dose of daily bent marty's bent marty's bent yes um that is that pales in comparison to the quality of your so i've i've been i've been listening to all crypto podcasts for like almost two years now and um i'm telling you without uh exaggeration that tales from the crypt is slowly but surely going up the hierarchy of the best podcasts i think it is top five maybe top three now for sure thank you i appreciate that i don't i don't think so we're getting there slowly but surely guests like you help us get to the top you know i mean as i said i'm nothing compared to the titans and compared to the true
Starting point is 01:45:06 developers and uh true true heroes of the space maybe that's the parting note we can end on as bit devs last night like what did you think of that as a as somebody who's been in the space for a while like what did you think of that structure of a meetup long-term bullish on bitcoin made me more bullish than ever um was a great was a great place was great meeting all the developers that you follow online in real life um they're extremely thorough like i think bitcoin is one of the most advanced cryptocurrencies like people think that it's like the oldest one people think that it's the myspace or whatever no uh it is one of the most advanced if not the most advanced cryptocurrencies in terms of the quality of developers there are so many like
Starting point is 01:45:53 projects and so many little things that they are improving on and optimizing on that people don't know i think we went over 50 pull requests last night 50 pull requests like 12 different papers like three different new like sub protocols or it's it's amazing yeah um i'm very bullish on bitcoin um and i like zcash too so that's what i'll say you like zcash too you're turning me on zcash a little bit um so people the last thing i will say is this uh i think this It's highly inflationary, pre-overwinter, pre-sapling, pre-Zikon Zero, pre-first halving, pre-mobile wallets, maybe even pre-Starks in the future, pre-shorter, more compact, faster proofs. This general bearish period and this general sort of next few months is a good time to invest in some Zcash. and that and i will publicly say that that's what i'm doing as well uh because
Starting point is 01:46:58 what once this this the once they will move to mandatory privacy which is one of their hopes and dreams and plans and once they have mobile wallets and once right now it's like 80 88 percent transparent and 12 percent um z or hidden addresses but they want to move to 90 10 in the other direction and once that's a reality i think this is going to be a very interesting coin yeah because people want their privacy people want their privacy and like you're not denying that billionaires like i think like indian chinese russian billionaires they want like a private store of value without people i mean like on lightning you will have some like private transactions or whatever but like i think having private on-chain balances is very cool yeah
Starting point is 01:47:40 no i would agree i would agree and once again i will say that i think this is like kind of a controversial view but i think zcash is the only contender for bitcoin and i will also say that bitcoin is most likely to win yeah i would concede that as well i mean zuku was working with jim mccoy back in the day on um what were they working on mojo nation yeah mojo nation which was very similar to bitcoin um and on top of that i i've stated publicly in the past like i think the next big debate in the bitcoin space is fungibility like for sure it's for sure that's the next segwit battle is fungibility i like in my research i think like it's not gonna come in the next five years no on chain oh god no god no so like it might take decades like the big hope
Starting point is 01:48:26 is for like layer two fungibility and it might be good enough for most people but like we will see yeah we'll see because i think like big if if if any of these things go to like six seven trillion or whatever and then people are using these for business or people using this for big payments whatever um like the big corporations or the billionaires they like their privacy like it's really important yeah um i also like privacy and i think it's a human right yeah it is a human right i would totally agree yeah um like i don't it's like walk like i don't want to walk naked throughout the street it's the same thing like um because right now if you pay like at least on-chain transaction if you use bitcoin to pay like an aids doctor then everybody knows you have it you know
Starting point is 01:49:03 yeah or a less dark example if you go to uh starbucks and pay like the starbucks coffee with an on-chain transaction just hypothetical of course no one's doing that but um they can see how much money you have where other shops have you been buying what your salary is is deducible uh what's your daily expenditure what your daily how much you're saving how much you're buying who your friends are how much your mom and dad have money like it's too much man yeah yeah and these machine learning algorithms big data crunching all this data mining are only getting more sophisticated and these systems i mean all the transactions since 2009 we can see what all the track is yeah and people are pretty terrible at uh maintaining their youtube exoset they'll just
Starting point is 01:49:46 right give up their private like a bunch of people fucked up their privacy so like you can you can go full site you can go full cypherpunk and have like use open dimes as cash or whatever and have like reuse addresses and have air gapped like laptops whatever uses like all these things but at the same time um it would be cooler if that's all abstracted away yeah yeah i would not disagree with that murad this has been a pleasure it's been an incredible conversation thank you sir where can we find out more about you where should you can find me on twitter at must stop murad we must stop him because he's going to change the world must stop m-u-r-a-d m-u-r-a-d and we must stop him because he's going to bring in a better future that's what the government's saying right
Starting point is 01:50:32 now we're all and you're doing the same with your podcast we're all just doing our part to accelerating the adoption of cryptocurrencies i'm happy to be on the front lines with you likewise sir my name is marty bent you can find me at marty bent on twitter if you like this podcast subscribe rate share subscribe to my newsletter too link in the bio of my twitter account i love all y'all peace and love freaks

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.