TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast - Tales from the Crypt #97: Eric Voskuil
Episode Date: September 11, 2019Join Marty and Matt as they sit down with Eric Voskuil, lead maintainer of the libbitcoin Bitcoin implementation, as they discuss: - libbitcoin - Austrian Economics - Attack vectors - Eric's experienc...e in the Navy - How Bitcoin fails - Dust - much more Check out the libbitcoin Wiki: https://github.com/libbitcoin/libbitcoin-system/wiki Shoutout to this week's sponsor, Cash App. Cash App. Head over to the App Store or Google Play Store, download cash.app and start #stackingsats today. Use the promo code: "stackingsats" to receive $5 and contribute $5 to OWLS Lacrosse you download the app. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtdbWsnfA08KhSUO4amVLaQ?view_as=subscriber Contribute to the show: https://tftc.io/contribute/
Transcript
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Well, hey there, freaks. It's your boy, Marty Bent, here to introduce this week's episode
with Eric Voskuhl, an incredibly interesting man who's been working on Bitcoin for years,
particularly the LibBitcoin implementation. Matt O'Dell and I sat down with Eric a couple
weeks ago, talked about LibBitcoin, Austrian economics, being a Bitcoin realist, Eric's
time in the Navy, and a bunch of other stuff. So you guys are going to enjoy it. Before
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Okay.
Tales from the Crypt.
What is up, freaks? Welcome back to Tales from the Crypt. It's your boy Marty Bent here
on a Tuesday afternoon, sitting down with two fine gentlemen. Very, very excited for
uh this conversation today uh we have eric vasco in the house uh maintainer of the bitcoin
software developer ex-navy pilot maybe seal pilot or just navy pilot just navy pilot they don't
have seal pilots i don't think maybe maybe they pilot some mini subs yeah my bad um no thanks
for coming we're also we got matt adele in the house as well sub freaks uh yeah i was just
explaining eric forgot about this conversation but i was a part of he was a part of one of my
favorite conversations of 2018 last year at riga uh we were standing outside just talking about
libitcoin your thoughts on bitcoin your thoughts on economics which i'm very fond of i come from
an economics background as well um very excited for this conversation because uh matt and i are
two bitcoin cheerleaders and eric is a bitcoin realist and we're going to get to that's a new
one i ever heard bitcoin realist yet that's what i that's what i got like i again like i i was
telling you i listened to like a few pods that you've been on this morning i drove up from south
jersey i feel like i've been talking to you for like four hours now at this point uh and that
yeah like i'd like to believe that you view yourself as a realist is that fair to say i don't
know if the traditional term you know realism from whatever philosophy school that came from is uh
It's fully descriptive, but, yeah, I tend to look at things from a very rational perspective.
Rationalist, maybe.
I don't know.
Rationalist.
But, yeah, labels are hard.
When it comes to what I say that I know, I have to be able to prove it or, you know, consider it opinion.
And so, you know, I seek to prove things using rational economics.
The code's different.
It's much easier to prove.
something you can verify um before we jump into like the crux of everything we want to talk about
uh we don't have to rehash too much but like how did you come to find and work on bitcoin
in particular on live bitcoin in particular uh so i guess it starts back in the early mid 90s when i
got uh i guess i discovered around 91 that i was libertarian i was a card carrying party member for
probably 25 years until I finally decided that I was an anarchist but um that got me into um
privacy um I was interested in Phil Zimmerman's work PGP and uh then I found uh David Chome and
the work on DigiCash I read the patents and found my own name on one of the patents that was
interesting um I'm Dutch and so they were in Amsterdam and I contacted them and never got a
response but there was a guy with with literally with my name working on the
project I met David shown the other night and I mentioned that to him and he
was he was curious what happened that guy so I had some interest in it you
know did you cash didn't really work out I was in the Navy I was busy I kept
writing software I was computer science major in college and so when I got out I
got out to do a software company I did a couple that were successful I did
another one that wasn't. And the day that I shut that down, so I had kind of ignored Bitcoin and
other things like it for years because of, because of DigiCash essentially. And it's funny, I actually
told David that. But then I decided to pick up Forbes magazine Silk Road article by Andy Greenberg
and I read that and immediately went to the Bitcoin white paper, read that and realized,
you know, this was different and I've been working on it ever since. Within, I don't know, a day,
i found um the bitcoin i looked for a software project that i could work on contribute to
whatever and uh found the bitcoin got together with one of my multi-company friends employees
and we sat down decided to start working on it and we've both been working on it ever since
what in particular was the impetus to push you from libert being a libertarian to an anarchist
rothbard rothbard yeah when i finally i'd studied economics for years along with you know this
politics and economics are deeply intertwined and um so it leads you to a study of you know
various things so i i found all the austrian school guys which i tended to gravitate towards
um but eventually i decided to really formalize my understanding and i i read man economy in the
state by rothbard with power market the whole big thing you know and i read it like i was going to
school so if I couldn't follow his proof on something I would read it you know sometimes
all day just a couple pages you know till I really fully understood it and then I got to the end and
I I'd always I'd already been kind of on the edge anyway but then I just realized it just
I couldn't deal with the contradiction of small state you know so that's kind of when I made the
decision that i just really am an anarchist and not a libertarian do you think anarchy is possible
in today's world um so i i i don't look at anarchy as a person who is trying to overthrow or disrupt
or anything like that it's more it's more for me a personal philosophy um non-participation right
to the extent possible um so in other words you don't have to see it you don't have to see the
state is a social good um just because you live in it and just because you can't avoid it doesn't
mean you can't be an anarchist right um so for me it's more about how i live my life um than
than trying to get rid of it right and that's funny because you're in the navy flying jets how
do you uh like line up your your belief in anarchy with with well it wasn't always a libertarian or
anarchist and it was during that time probably 90 i joined the navy in 86 i was working at ibm
on a co-op uh cooperative you know employment thing during college and uh it was during that
time i was i got if i'd gone somewhere else my life would be very different but i got kind of
bored and i realized i just liked riding my motorcycle up around the catskills and
playing softball on the weekends so i decided it was something i you know i needed to do something
a little bit more um engaging and so i think i picked up hunt for red october tom clancy book
and bookstore i was like ah great i'll be a submarine guy you know yeah i actually rode to
the recruiter you know uh and uh they talked they talked me into being a pilot so they thought that
i guess they thought my personality was was right for it so um you know that's how i got in the navy
and uh um it wasn't until 91 that i started to become kind of more politically i actually got
a poli sci minor but it didn't amount to much um but yeah i started to get more interested in
things and uh that led me to uh libertarianism and that led me to just keep reading and learning
and i find the stuff very interesting especially the economic stuff i find the politics a lot less
interesting there's really not much to it but but the economics yeah politics is more exhausting
than interesting if anything yeah it's just a it's just a battle of opinions and and uh you know
i don't know it's it's not uh you know there's no how would you say it's not rational right it's
more emotional and i find you know i can't really i can't get really interested in making these
emotional arguments about things you know i want to know what's true i want to know what is
so i gravitate towards the economic side of things i do as well and like staying on being a pilot do
you think that experience helps frame how you approach bitcoin development and thinking of
security and attack vectors and such well i you know i had a had a long background in in programming
as well and which again is is kind of purely rational it's just symbolic logic and machine
does what you tell it and um but also my experience with physical security you know
but i mean you can't really not very high level as a pilot but you get to see things
and understand how big organizations the state tends to think
and how it tends to work.
And so that does inform some of my opinion.
Like people underestimate the capability of states
and people that work in them, right?
Yeah, and you said that on the Crypto Voices podcast,
and I am one of those people.
I'm one of those people that believe that state may be too incompetent to...
Yeah, that's a mistake.
State's not incompetent.
It just has different motivations than everybody's,
So it looks like it's doing stupid things, but it's doing things in its own interest that are not necessarily the interest of individuals.
But, you know, it can be very effective and, you know, certainly very powerful.
So and the people I worked with were amazing, capable, smart, creative and driven.
And so, you know, it's not maybe that way everywhere, but, you know, if you had a problem, you had a threat, tactical problem, whatever you wanted to solve, the creative solutions that people come up with are kind of amazing, you know.
And I taught tactics for years.
I evaluated people's tactics and modeled the threat.
You know, got in an airplane and pretended to be a Russian whatever and showed people that, you know, it's not as easy as it looks, right?
You can't just assume you're going to kind of walk in there and do what you want.
So looking realistically at threats is something that, you know, I have experience with.
And also the understanding that all security comes down to human beings taking some risk.
Machines don't provide security.
They're tools for people.
And I also spent a long time, I still do, practice martial arts.
And that's another case where you just people make assumptions about, you know, the adversary that don't always hold up so well.
And so it tends to make you more realistic about modeling the threat.
What do you think? I guess we're going to jump into it now.
What do you think are some threats that that apply to Bitcoin today that maybe some of us cheerleaders are overlooking?
well the state is the threat to bitcoin that's to me without question it's the you know the state
wasn't taking control of money then people would do what they wanted with money and
and um you know bitcoin wouldn't really be necessary it wouldn't be necessary
so there's you know there's two kind of levels of threat model there's you know securing your
wallet from the random thief
or from your own incompetence
which is probably more scary
and then
you know the system level security
is how I refer to it right
the model that Satoshi laid out in the
white paper is all system security it's not
talking about how to secure your keys or
things like that
and so
the threat is
the state right if
you don't have that then
then the security model would be very different yeah and so in the conversations i was listening
to this morning you think we're still in the honeymoon period when do you think the state
begins paying attention and seeing bitcoin as a threat to it well if you look at the state as a
rational actor which it is with different motivations you realize that there's no reason
to spend the money to do something about it until there's a cost um you know that that is exceeding
the the enforcement cost right and there's really not it's too small um so uh if if you just look
at it from that perspective when bitcoin starts making enough of a difference in other words
effectively taking away enough tax revenue which is what it's saving people presumably right it's
allowing them to move money across borders save money without signage um transact um in in ways
that aren't allowed, right?
That's all about saving people money
as opposed to alternatives.
And that means that's money
that's not flowing into the state, right?
Through foreign exchange controls,
enforcement of other tax laws through signage.
And when that becomes enough
to make it worth enforcement,
then presumably they'll start enforcing.
And you see this already starting.
It's little dribs and drabs here.
And it would never be complete and comprehensive.
That's not the point.
It's just a question of whether it becomes,
it starts becoming an issue for Bitcoin.
But most arguments I see come down to,
well, it's either going to be so popular they can't do that,
which to me reduces to the status quo, right?
If gold was popular, money in general is popular,
why do we let them do these things with dollars, right?
Why do we have foreign exchange controls if it's so popular to not have them?
Why can't we program money?
I mean, PayPal tried that.
It was a nightmare.
I programmed in the PayPal APIs for a long time, and it's a nightmare.
It's all these things that they don't want to do, they have to do.
So, you know, the arguments about security tend to come down to things that just don't really make any, you know, majority of them don't make any sense, right?
We'll just, it'll be popular, and we'll vote for it, right?
i uh i mean i also think that the state is you know should be the main focus in terms of you
know network level security particularly the american government but would you say that
that you expected a you know the reaction seems to be more downplayed than i would have expected
would you agree with that well i don't know i don't know what you expected but um like i thought
i thought at this point when like i i started like focusing on bitcoin like 2012 2013 i thought
by this point it would be basically illegal in america at least self-custody um it seems like
the reaction has been way less aggressive uh so far than i would have anticipated otherwise
well the impact so far is probably way less more way less than you expected as well but that would
that's what that would be my response right the the impact that bitcoin is having on tax revenues
is not high enough for the state to care yet.
And I've actually heard regulators, like ECB regulators,
not too long ago say this on a panel, I think at Oxford.
Well, yeah, we're keeping an eye on it,
but really it's not big enough for us to care yet.
Yet, right?
Yet, and I know you don't like to think about the future,
but do you think we ever get to a point where they do care?
I think about the future all the time.
I mean, it's the only place where things happen,
or the present, I guess.
so um do we ever get to that point um possibly is it knowable no right um but we work on it
because we think it's possible um and we think it's possible to defend against state controls
otherwise what would be the point you know you would go work on r3 or something and have a rage
quit if you didn't believe that was possible yeah and do you do you think so as you're building like
live bitcoin out and maintaining that implementation in particular like what mindset do you have like
are you trying to fortify the system or simply make it more useful
the bitcoin um you know it's a developer um a miracle a toolkit right uh it's a set of libraries
that make it easy to build uh actual bitcoin stuff right as opposed to like building on web
service APIs which tend to be very easy to take down and control so it doesn't
really tend to advance you know new innovations new new things and it didn't
tends to absorb them as they as they come along and its objective is to
provide a full stack set of libraries that is readable understandable
well-maintained, reliable, both to help people understand how the code actually works,
but also to deploy their own applications around it.
And that is so that people can build actual Bitcoin stuff that can operate locally at small scale
and provide a more securable environment for Bitcoin.
Right. So I always said that the role of a core developer is advantaging the individual or disadvantaging the state.
Right. If you're working on something that doesn't do that, then you're not doing core development.
So things like privacy are important. Right.
We tend not to work on new privacy tech.
We absorb the stuff that that people have developed once it starts getting used.
but we work on making it easier to build and more reliable to build things that people can use which
is you know part of that advantaging individuals yeah and let's dive into like the differences
between the bitcoin and the bitcoin core implementation because as you came to bit
devs i believe it was last summer and presented the bitcoin and it was the first time i was aware
that you guys have, like, a different transaction model
than the UTXO model that Core is using?
Yeah, I mean, the model, the abstraction is the same, right?
It is what it is, but the implementation is very different.
It's evolved over time.
It's probably started out, you know,
and it did start out closer to the Satoshi,
what I call the Satoshi prototype, right?
But Amir was very aggressive in redesigning things,
and then I continued that.
So, yeah, the implementation has different objectives.
It's a library.
It has, you know, full node and, you know, client-side command line tools.
So, you know, we can actually see it in operation.
But the objective is, you know, the Satoshi client tends to be, in all its various variations, it's an application.
and so people chop it up or connect to it using you know some fairly clunky apis um and
um you know our objective is to kind of open it up and factor it so that
um people can build on these pieces directly right um so it's just a different engineering
approach the the conceptual model is the same but for example we don't have um a separate store of
utxos we just store the transactions okay the transaction have the utxos and we want the
transactions because we want to be able to allow people to obtain the chain um so why store them
twice all you really need is some metadata that says you know at what height was this output spent
and that's sufficient to know that it's either spent or unspent in the current strong chain
another thing we don't have is a mempool you know people talk about the UTXO
set and the mempool as if they're actual necessary aspects of bitcoin but they're not
there's a transaction pool which is a term we use for the set of unconfirmed transactions that
are confirmable um there's um there's weak blocks right there blocks that could be confirmable if
they were in a longer chain um that are otherwise valid uh and there's unspent outputs but these are
all just transactions and headers that's all they are right so we have a store of transactions we
have a store of headers um and they're well indexed so we get constant time retrieval no
matter how big the chain gets how is it maintaining this and trying to get developers to come help you
work on this when obviously bitcoin core is the lead implement not lead implementation i don't
know what the correct phrasing is the most downloaded the biggest stations you know by
by far the most used um so it's uh it's very easy to get people to want to come work on the bitcoin
there's a there's a line of people who want to work full-time on the bitcoin and there's you
some that put in a lot of time voluntarily and we've had some generous contributions from you
know community people directly to developers to work full-time for years which is great that you
know during the last price disruption that that kind of you know took a hit and that hit a lot
lot of people i think as well um so uh as a result of that uh myself and tom bachia who's a
new york bitcoin kind of money guy here you probably know him right we we uh i'm not sure
if i know i have met in person but i know yeah like twitter yeah he was he was at fidelity for
a while ran their their bitcoin blockchain stuff and then came out and has his own um
fund in progress and so he he's done a lot of work to set up a non-profit that
that'll allow people to donate to the Bitcoin without you know and get the tax
benefit basically so we we're calling that the little Bitcoin Institute right
so just just a way to help facilitate getting money to developers so they can
work full-time but it's it's a small team and I expect it to remain a small
team and i kind of prefer that you know i could i couldn't imagine having hundreds if not thousands
of people trying to jam stuff into the code base it would just be a nightmare you know why why would
you want that just go you know go make your own um uh if you got that many people who want to do
something so it is a challenge to get money it's not really a challenge to get people who want to
work on it there's it's very elegant code base it's um it's rewarding um people love it when
they start working on it um but yeah anybody out there that's uh you're listening uh throw us some
cash and we'll make even more what would you say to somebody who thinks that multiple implementations
is stupid what they're out there there are multiple implementations you know it's inevitable
so you can they can say it but i mean i just kind of ignore it it's like you know there's there's
multiple implementations of the satoshi client running on the bitcoin network right every time
they make a change it's a new implementation and those changes lead to the problems that they
tend to describe so it's not it's not possible well i guess you could you could freeze at the
original satoshi implementation have everybody run that and it would never change right that's
the only way you get one implementation yeah so it's certainly not feasible and uh the nature of
competition uh you know makes things better and i've seen this i've i've seen things that we've
done be more aggressively adopted or things be more focused on in other nodes um because we're
you know we're making improvements in some areas that people want to be competitive with so it's
it's a good thing in in many ways um but yeah the the idea that um that there could only be
one implementation is false and and that's i mean even what was it even last year at riga was like
the day that they announced they had introduced into the code base a hard fork, right?
So it happens, and it's, you know, it's inevitable.
And the idea that it can't happen was right there shown to be false.
I mean, there's a lot of people that were withdrawing their commentary,
and well-known people who said this will never happen, right, because it's so well-tested.
I'm a software guy.
This happens, right?
And then you have instances like, what was it, a few weeks ago or maybe a month ago now
where a miner tried to give himself like an extra Bitcoin
and the block reward in the Coinbase transaction
and every implementation denied it.
So it's like as a Bitcoiner seeing that LitBitcoin caught that.
Yeah, it's pretty rare for consensus forks to be surfaced.
I think some tend to get found before they cause problems
like that one we were just talking about.
And I think at about the same rate that the Satoshi client
has discovered these kind of things either in the code or in in live operation we've discovered them
as well different things though you know like we didn't have that bug we didn't have the inflation
consensus bug i was on a flight when it got tweeted out and i was like you know trying to get
into the code base to see and i was pretty sure that we didn't because the design is different
and and i was like no we didn't you know we don't and then uh had some had somebody add a few test
cases because we didn't have full coverage on that section and and uh the reason i think i mentioned
this when i was speaking at riga and and he came back and i'm still on the flight and he says hey
we have we have an issue and i'm like what you know we don't have that bug we get something else
well it turned out it was just you just you know quickly put together these test cases and the test
case was was incorrect but but yeah anyway so um we didn't have a chance of having that problem
because we didn't have the the same design that they have it's an example that highlights maybe
the the benefit of multiple implementations yeah i don't know i mean benefit benefit to whom right
Like the community, it's the individual who's running the node.
I don't know.
I mean, there are multiple implementations.
They do tend to have positive and negative, you know, consequences,
but they're inevitable and with or without independent teams, right?
Even with just one code base, it's inevitable.
And, you know, just switching some feature like the database implementation
caused a consensus bug, a significant one, right?
just having third-party dependencies
like OpenSSL caused a consensus bug
without even changing your code base, right?
So we worked very hard to remove
as many external dependencies as we could,
including OpenSSL.
We had actually gotten rid of it
before Bitcoin Core did
using their own libsec library,
which they didn't feel was ready yet.
but yeah so so you know we take that engineering approach to try to simplify the code as much as
we can make it as readable as we can expose the consensus rules in a very visible rational way
and you know minimize dependencies do all these things that make it easier to verify the code
and there's very few people that can actually go into the satoshi client and actually look at the
code and go well that's right or that's wrong right and testing's not enough you know it's
It's insufficient.
I certainly can't read and understand what's going on there.
I mean, I think the biggest argument would be
that people should be running multiple nodes,
multiple implementations,
especially if you're like a large service,
like if you're like a Coinbase or something like that.
Would you not agree with that?
Well, it wouldn't hurt, I guess.
It's an additional cost.
But, you know, most other nodes are just...
I mean, all nodes are difficult to run and maintain,
especially if you're running a service over them.
It's really not designed for that.
What would you say it's designed for?
Desktop app.
Yeah.
That's how it was designed, right?
And, you know, it threw on this JSON RPC API,
which is not designed for network use, right?
It's not securable.
It's not scalable.
It's not very highly performant,
but it's fine for wallet desktop use.
So people tend to build infrastructure over that, companies, and they make big investments in building, for example, database applications that suck all the data, suck the chain out of there.
They just use it as a way to get the chain, right, a node on the network.
Pull it all into some other store and then query over that, you know.
So, you know, if it was designed for that, you wouldn't be doing that.
Our miners, you know, build layers over it as well where they're really not doing anything unusual.
They should need that complexity.
Now, that's a good segue into a concept that I want to talk about after hearing and expand upon after hearing it.
You talked about it on the Crypto Voices podcast this morning was the idea of scaling versus...
I was on there this morning?
No, I was listening to it this morning.
It was like a year and a half ago.
Go check that out.
Time warp bug.
Matty Majingsis has the best voice in all of Bitcoin.
and does a hell of an interview.
And that was a good two-part series that Eric did.
So I believe that came out January of last year.
But it's the first time I heard this framing of scaling versus layering
and understanding that Bitcoin at the protocol layer doesn't scale
and being okay with that.
Yeah, Bitcoin is perfectly non-scalable, right?
It doesn't matter how much hard.
I mean, so from a computer science standpoint
or from an engineering standpoint, I should say,
scalability is the idea that you add more hardware,
you get a linear increase in throughput right there's no you can't add any more hardware to
to bitcoin to get more transactions through if that's the aspect of scaling we're talking about
right more transaction throughput there's a you know it's it's perfectly non-scalable but
you know there is there's there's no limit to what you can do in terms of layering in terms
of throughput, well, yeah, I mean, I'll just say that there's, you know, that's fairly
unlimited.
There's no limit to the amount of money you can push through in a transaction, put it
that way.
If you can get together, you know, the money and in few enough outputs, you can push through
as much money as you want up to the, you know, the coin limit.
So that's not really scalability either, right?
It doesn't take any more hardware to do that.
So you call that like infinitely scalable, right?
There's no amount of hardware required.
You can do as much as you want.
So when we talk about scaling,
it's an interesting question from an engineering standpoint.
What are we really talking about?
And those get into, to me, those are not engineering questions
because the engineering is fairly straightforward.
It's either perfectly non-scalable in transaction throughput.
It's infinitely scalable in monetary throughput.
When we talk about being able to run a node on a piece of hardware,
Those are scalability questions, right?
Like if you double the RAM,
if you double the number of cores that you have,
you know, CPUs that you have,
do you get a doubling improvement
in terms of speed of validation or speed of query?
And LaBitcoin is designed for that.
Those are some of the decisions that Amir made
that continue to be effective.
The query speed on LaBitcoin is phenomenal.
Constant time lookup data can be,
if you have enough memory,
The entire chain just sits in memory, using up, you know, free memory with a memory mapped file.
And the files are, you know, indexed in such a way that no matter what you're looking for, you're going to get a constant time response.
Pass through a very low overhead network gain interface, 0MQ, much lower overhead than web-based interfaces, JSON, stuff like that.
So the query performance is extraordinary.
And if you increase the memory, you get an increase in performance.
You increase the number of threads you have available,
you get a linear increase in performance up to some limit,
which is always the case.
Then something else becomes the bottleneck,
and you try to make that linear, right?
Right now, when I do it, it's my network.
It can connect to the Bitcoin up to thousands of peers
and download in parallel and store in parallel all at the same time.
But then my router crashes because it's just a home router.
So the network becomes the limiting issue in your ability to do that kind of stuff.
So that's the difference between scalability.
And when we're talking about scalability from a conceptual standpoint, we're not talking about those things.
We're talking about ultimately how useful can the money be?
And those are economic questions.
And I find those very interesting as well.
I think it's a combination of how useful can the money be for how many people?
Or do you think it just needs to be useful for a small subset?
Well, the more people the money is useful for, the more useful it is for any
given person.
Yeah.
Right?
I mean, the more people that accept the money, the more useful the money is, the more value
it has to you.
How do we get more people accepting this money?
How do we get that?
Well, we get that because the money has value to them, right?
So more people accept it, the more valuable it becomes to other people, the more people
accept it.
But the money has a cost of use, and that is an offsetting factor.
I'm not just talking about fees.
Those are potentially the most significant factor.
But even now with essentially no fee issue at all, because of low usage, you have other offsetting factors.
It's complex to work with.
So we work on making that easier for people, making it easier for people to build applications that make it easier for people.
Um, there's risk involved, right?
You know, um, there's taxes, right?
It's in the U S, uh, Bitcoin is treated as a commodity tax wise.
So when the dollar drops and you, and you spend your Bitcoin, you incur a tax, right?
Capital gains tax.
So that's, I mean, if the dollar is dropped because of monetary inflation, then that's
signage transferred to Bitcoin, not at the same rate, but, but in proportion, right?
so if people want the advantages of Bitcoin they have to be willing to do it
if it's not legal right and so getting more people to adopt it when it's very
easy to make it criminal to use isn't is itself a challenge right yeah that's my
biggest worry for Bitcoin in the long term is a combination of that and
apathy, people not caring and not being strong-willed enough
to make illegal transactions that may not be unethical
but are just defined as illegal by the state.
Sure.
I use the term moral.
It's not a religious concept.
It's a philosophical concept.
So dealing with economics, economics is kind of morally agnostic.
right it just doesn't doesn't doesn't it just describes how things at least we talk about
rational economics Austrian economics um it's a system of proof based on some simple axioms um
and it doesn't make a judgment about those things then you can add a judgment on in terms of what is
moral and what is not and I I do that with a very simple uh principle the non-aggression principle
um which defines you know what people want to do or what they're compelled to do um and so
I, you know, to me that that's the moral distinction.
If people want to go, you know, buy their illegal drugs with their, with their Bitcoin,
that's not, not, you know, that's their choice.
They're not stealing from anybody.
So, but there's a limit to people's willingness and ability to do that.
But ultimately Bitcoin security model doesn't provide any protection whatsoever against
the state, right?
It's not, it helps people hide,
but it doesn't stop the state from passing a law, right?
And people have come up with all kinds of ways
to try to rationalize that,
especially people invested in white market Bitcoin industry.
And you have to understand that the Bitcoin security model
is entirely designed around people
being able to operate anonymously
so that they can hide from people trying to enforce law,
this law is trivially easy to create um and even if it's not that it's irrelevant right it's
if we wanted a money that was always lawful we would just use the dollar right because that is
the that is the money that has the set of laws applied to it that people have seemed to have
accepted um politically so and i you know and i'm and i'm referring to pretty much every other money
around the world uh state money so you know in order to get the advantages out of it that the
security model provides you have to be willing and able to use it when you want to even if it's
not allowed permissionless right that's the whole point of permissionless so you can advocate
advocate for large-scale white market adoption but in the end that's kind of counterproductive
because what does it do it just creates a big target what do you mean by large-scale white
market adoption well i just draw this i just use the term white market black market to draw the
line between um what is allowed you know and what is not allowed by some states always relative to
some authority right so um if if you use the u.s as the canonical example of the authority and
it's certainly not the only one that gets benefit from making its own money but if you use that as
an example well if the u.s just passed law it says you know accepting bitcoin is money laundering
including mining which is accepting bitcoin right then um then bitcoin itself right the doing of it
accepting it is unlawful and so it's black market activity now you might be able to do it under
certain conditions right you you get you know you accept a little rule change that allows a state to
create units of its own money now it has monetary policy you accept a restriction on what can be
mind uh you know only approve transactions now you have censorship and with those two changes
it's perfectly good state money um and i i call that fed coin right so if you're willing to accept
fed coin you can remain in the white market but otherwise you're a money launderer and that's
very easy to envision right you can't predict it will happen but either we stay in this honeymoon
phase or we don't and that's likely what happens um and that likely won't work i mean people still
keep doing it some people and so now you get into enforcement which is the next logical phase if
it's important enough you'll start enforcing bitcoin has this inherent weakness that no other
thing has that it can be uh compliance can be enforced from one point on the earth most
effectively right through through uh mining uh majority so um bitcoin has unique advantages it
has unique disadvantages it's the only thing it's the only thing in the in the in the world that
when you transfer it to somebody else you you pay a fee that's a function not of what you're
transferring but what how many other people are doing the same thing right that's very unique
and it's also very unique in the fact that it can be controlled from one point of the earth
with sufficient capital and the way that we would beat the state in this scenario would be to
to pay higher fees to yeah somebody has to somebody has to pay for higher hash power to
overcome the sensor right and the only way that that happens in an economical rash economically
rational way is the people who are trying to transact who have value in getting those
transactions through pay more to get them through you know economically irrational would be the idea
that people just donate their money to this you know donate more tax right you're already paying
the tax for the hash power uh that's offsetting the the higher fees but now you donate more tax to
to pay for other people to transact you know possible certainly would happen to some extent
but it's not economically rational therefore not provable so i i think really the only way
the reason bitcoin has a censorship resistance property is because when fees don't when
transactions don't get confirmed people raise their fees and as they raise their fees it
incents more hash power people to accept them unlawfully and potentially uh preventing or
overcoming a um a sensor with hash power are you optimistic about uh your fellow humans uh having
the will to to transact uh illegally yeah but but uh certainly i wouldn't work on it um and
but it's not knowable right it's it's it's an assumption we make right like it's it's the axiom
that I add to the axiomatic system
that I call crypto-economics, right?
It's, you know, Bitcoin,
which I consider anything that conforms
to the security model that Satoshi laid out,
which is basically three principles,
which I call crypto-dynamic principles,
the forces that make the crypto, you know, work.
Anything that conforms to those, I consider Bitcoin.
And there's an...
these are based these principles are based on math probability theory which is not math
and economic theory rational economic theory and those are all axiomatic systems right there's
some assumptions they're very simple if you accept those assumptions you can make you can prove
things even mathematics um but bitcoin has one additional assumption which is that that's
possible right it's possible for people to to continue to use it in the face of you know the
state but it's not provable because value is subjective we don't know how much value people
will place in their getting their transactions confirmed or how much value the state will place
in preventing it or how much people will resist the taxation required to do it but it's not as much
it's not as expensive as people assume right it's not the total amount of hash power
mining is profitable being a majority miner is even more profitable it's the most profitable
way to mine because of the benefit the advantages there's two two advantages to being a majority
miner you have lowest variance and you have lowest latency so you you could be a majority
hash power miner at something less certainly than majority hash rate and so and it's happened right
people can get to that level and be perfectly profitable so that's not a cost right it's a it's
a it's an investment that returns it's the the cost comes when when that when that sensor when
that 51 minor starts censoring up until that point nobody cares right it's fine right but but when it
starts censoring now transactions aren't getting through and the and the fees have to rise so the
the difference between the kind of market transaction fee that's being accepted and the
ones that aren't being accepted they call that the fee premium that difference is what is securing
the money it was preventing the sensor right and or not and that's much smaller than the cost of
total hash you know energy hash rate consumption and energy and stuff it's very you know could be
could be uh so trivial that it can't people aren't willing people may not be willing to pay enough
right to overcome the sensor it's hard to say um but we assume it's possible yeah it's um
And as a cheerleader here and somebody who likes to talk optimistically about the future of Bitcoin, it's always sobering to put these scenarios into perspective.
And I think that's what I love most about the Bitcoin wiki is your section on crypto economics.
I feel like you're trying to educate people about, again, to think about Bitcoin rationally and understand its limitations very, very clearly.
Yeah, it's become that.
It started out as a way just for me
to put my thoughts down on paper
so they would stop floating around in my head
or to just stop repeatedly responding
to the same questions at Twitter speed.
But just a couple topics originally
and just grew.
I did 93 yesterday.
93 rats.
But again, it's just stuff floating around my head
and I can't describe it very well
until I write it and then I write it
and maybe sometimes I find things
that aren't quite right
or somebody points out something
It's not quite right.
I've had James Chang, who you had on here recently,
was reviewing my crypto economics wiki
and found two errors, real errors.
And the consequence was unchanged,
but the argument was not correct.
And it led to a much better argument and clarifications.
And we had a good talk about that yesterday.
So it helps getting it out there, too, to get peer review.
um but but now it's become like it is interesting to educate people
on things um because they want to know and there's not a lot of
um more objective more rational analysis of these things
out there yeah and i think i forget which podcast it was i listened to this
morning but you were um well what exactly were you saying that
uh shit i lost my train of thought here
that um we're talking about getting information out there for people yeah getting it out there
for people but uh i forget exactly but that's one thing and just forgot that train of thought
on to the next one educating people i think that's important and that's what that's what
you're saying people don't care uh you said at the beginning of this conversation like if
why why hasn't the world coalesced on a free money uh that they exist like gold exists silver
exists like if they really cared about it why haven't we coalesced on a on a free free market
money right now why aren't we coalesced around a free market money and i think it's partly because
of a lack of education people really don't understand what money is and that's why i think
your crypto economics page yeah it's it's a hard topic i mean money is economics is one thing money
is like all of that and more you know and um in one in some sense it's very simple in other other
ways it's very complex and you know it's it took me a long time to get to the point where i felt
like i i really understood it and now i've gotten to the point where i think i find i tend to say
tend i've found errors in what people consider settled austrian economics and i you know there's
there's it's a hard topic and um what are some examples of these errors well uh the simplest one
and and it's um it's um easier to explain so i'll use a simpler one for at first and it's not
quite as important but the mysis is regression theorem all right so i look at regression theorem
And I'm like, well, it just doesn't really make sense to me on its face.
If you look at his Austrian economics, it's based on rationality, right?
It's an axiomatic system.
He's very clear about that.
It's not based on observation.
And it accepts the idea that value is subjective, which is not an axiom.
It's an exclusion of everything that we can't know, right?
So you have the axiom of human action, and you have the axiom of time preference,
and then you have this exclusion of objective value.
And, and so from that we should be able to derive this regression theorem.
And it was an attempt to settle the, you know, the circularity problem and where does the
value of money come from and it tended to be circular and Mises said, well, no, it's
because, you know, we value money today because what we were able to obtain yesterday.
We remember there's, even though value is subjective, there's just some aspect of it
that's objectively from previous use, right?
So if you can accept that, which is not really provable, it's a contradiction of the subjective
theory of value, then regress back and you see this infinite regression, yesterday, the
day before, and you get to the point where the money was used in barter.
Well, why did it have barter value?
You keep regressing back to the point where it had use value.
And he's very explicit.
He says industrial use value.
This was a commodity that people held and they used in production and they made these
things and they and then they you know then it progressed to barter and then it
progressed to money and he's really in a lot of passages he's really just trying
to find ways to condemn state money right which may have evolved from that
but had no use has no use value which is what a fiat is which by the way Bitcoin
has no use value so it's also fiat that's literally what it means right
it's just it doesn't have any use aside from money not any material use right so
he's trying to he's trying to regress back and then has to terminate this
regression right at use value but that's irrational right how did it get use
value how did that come about somebody had to at some point look at this thing
and go I think I can use that for something it was entirely subjective
right like it could no way to remember it from the day before so the original
use of the thing that he's regressed back to was entirely subjective which
implies right a contradiction saying that it can't be money unless it evolved
from objective use right but obviously it can't it had to evolve from subjective use originally
therefore anything could be money right and so basically the the theorem doesn't make any sense
anything can be money so i mean satoshi decided he wanted to make a money made a money and on day
one it was a money right he was very clear about that but you know so there's really no reason for
this regression theorem except to try to condemn state money but that you you can condemn that
rationally in a number of ways that don't have this logical error right yeah but there's i agree
hopefully but then the concept that we've been talking a lot more recently the last few months
uh with some guess is the intersubjectivity of money so like some monetary goods have have better
characteristics of fulfilling the the use of a monetary good certain certain commodities have
better monetary use than others right you know there's a long list of or a short list i guess of
useful properties of money um you know paper money has useful properties that that commodity
monies don't for example it doesn't decay right you just replace it with a new one and you know
so you don't have the coin clipping problem you know other things like that it's funny people
people tend to say that dollars are more portable than gold which i think is kind of funny because
if you try to move a billion dollars in gold versus a billion dollars in hundred dollar bills
the biggest bill you look at the volume and the weight it's not even close right you got pallets
of these these hundred dollar bills right um that weigh much more than the gold so i always find that
curious this is why people say it's more portable um you think they're arguing from like a more
portable via the wiring system that exists or the wiring well wiring money well that's not money
that's credit yeah so you know uh we're just talking about settlement right you move money
around between banks internationally it's actually physically moved right dollars do actually you
know provide the money for the existing financial system and um anyway it's just an interesting
observation i guess about portability you said bitcoin has no use value but what about the
ability to pay fees to to get transactions or is that well that's that's the use of the money
right but the money has so bitcoin does have marginal use value i mean depending on some
people might think it's really important but you can use it for time stamping
right paper money has marginal use value you can burn it for energy so so it's
not there's never an absolute these are conceptual distinctions right so
generally you consider gold not a fiat because it has use value that's more
significant right it can be used for all kinds of interesting things whereas fiat
you know people don't generally burn it for heat but they might if they had to
sometimes they roll it up and use it for a straw you know there are definitely
uses and Bitcoin does have some of that as well but but we consider we consider
those to be fairly marginal and so primarily dollars or fiat they have no
you know important use value and Bitcoin is the same thing the difference between
Bitcoin so so before Bitcoin there was no other fiat than state money so people
get in the habit of referring to you know an unbacked piece of paper as fiat
and then they're hesitant to apply that same term to Bitcoin because it's
different but it is different it's not monopoly money right monopoly meaning
the production of it is not controlled by any counterfeiting laws monopoly
production so when you have monopoly production you can charge any price you
want or any price that the market will bear so you can obtain a price premium
which is what sign rich is right Bitcoin doesn't have unless it's under a
successful censorship attack it doesn't have monopoly production therefore the
cost of producing it equals the value to the miner of what they obtain the dollar costs about 5.5
cents for one for a one dollar bill the treasury charges the fed that amount the difference right
that's signage um and that's only possible because nobody else can make them right if everybody could
make dollars that that would the price of the dollar the purchasing power of the dollar could
come down to about 5.5 cents or less right um but the problem is now portability you'd have to carry
around way too many of them and it wouldn't be very useful but it would be then a perfectly it
would be a commodity money at that point right i'm still because i have been following your
your writing around bitcoin as fiat too and so what is your definition of fiat is something
that's decreed no uh so this is something i actually had to look up and study for a bit
because that's what i assumed right a long while back it's like the value is decreed that's not
what that's not what declared by fiat actually meant it meant it was declared
as a money the value is driven by the market so what fiat so that there was
because there was no Bitcoin there was no alternative they could tended to go
hand in hand the the ability to declare any value it's not declaring right
you're just restricting supply so that you can raise the price through
monopoly um so that's the effect of fiat money when it's controlled by the state which was the
only way to have a fiat money before bitcoin so they went hand in hand but fiat actually meant
declared to be a money right did evolve as a money it was you know somebody had to declare it and
control it for it to work but what it really means is it has no use value that's the that's
the economic definition of fiat and you look at bitcoin that this to the same type of degree it
has no use value it's it's a money and um the difference again is that it's not its production
is not monopolized anybody can go out and mine them mine it and so therefore you have competition
for mining which basically brings profit of mining down to the cost of capital or return on
mining to the cost of capital so there's nothing wrong with that you know and i tend not to
emphasize it because people people weird out on you know but but but but but but but but but you
get you get interesting consequences from using the right concepts in the right terms right so i
i wrote a money taxonomy topic you know commodity money um fiat etc but you have to draw a distinction
between bitcoin and state money if they're both fiat and that distinction is simply monopoly
monopoly on the production um and then you can you know over time come to other conclusions like well
is monopoly production of bitcoin possible and this is actually a topic that i wrote up yesterday
Okay. You probably heard Nick Szabo's term, unforgeable cost.
Costliness.
Costliness, yeah. I call it proof of cost.
Unforgeable means it's provable, and costliness is cost.
So you have proof of cost, right?
The Bitcoin is a proof that the cost was market-driven, right?
But that's only if it's not under a monopoly control, right?
once it's under monopoly control you could charge as much in fees as you want and not put them on
chain even right they can be completely invisible and therefore extract a premium from producing the
money or the transactions or the blocks right and so you could achieve the same result um sign your
through the money um so what's the proof telling you it's not telling you that right it's not
there's no proof of the cost of producing bitcoin there's only proof of work that's not even proof
of energy energy costs vary right or any the amount of energy efficiency to
produce the computations necessary to prove the work very somewhat so you
really Satoshi you know use the right term right work it's just proving that
probabilistically these number of computations were performed it's not
proof of cost so anyway it was it was important to point that out because but
what that led to and that's again goes back to the proper understanding of the
difference between monopoly money and and market money i mean fiat versus bitcoin
is is in the monopoly and then you look at it closely and you realize well
what if bitcoin could be monopolized and then that's what led me to the conclusion that
yeah it could be just you know you so if the fees are on chain right any miner can go out and
capture those fees and you everybody assumes that all the money that a miner is making is on chain
but there's absolutely no reason it has to be what do you mean by that uh so um when people
pay fees in transactions to miners that achieves um anonymity right any miner can grab the fees
without knowing who the transactor is but it's not necessary it's just beneficial right so as
as and we know miners do this right they make arrangements with we saw it publicly during the
fee crisis they were accepting credit card payments to boost fees and stuff absolutely
so these the but you have to understand that's what i that's what i call side fees that doesn't
have any impact on on actual people using the money it doesn't change the amount of money the
miner makes miner can put if a miner mines his own transaction he put any fee in the block that
he wants for that transaction it has no impact on his return put a huge fee just capture it back
Put zero fee, get it on the side, makes no difference.
You're still using the same amount of energy and netting the same amount of money.
So the fees tend to be useful and interesting,
but they're not proof of the amount of money that the miner's making.
So we get to that situation where fees start to matter
and people start doing these things.
I actually wrote about that a while ago.
I mean, coming up with fee arrangements.
Say you're Coinbase or somebody, right?
You make a fee arrangement with some miner.
we're actually raising the cost of getting your transactions mined because
you know you're directing them towards this one miner so they're taking longer
to get confirmed right you if I don't actually don't remember all the details
but there's a there's a several there's several things that add to your cost
right you're better off just letting the market handle the transactions and pay
the market fee because you're going to pay at least the market fee anyway
either that or the miners donating to you or you're donating to the miner
right so you have this inefficiency but it's hard to know what the market fee is
if it's not on the chain right so you just keep raising your fee until
somebody takes it but that's how that's how business works right you walk into a
store and you want to buy something you know making on a lot of parts that would
just make an offer until both parties agree and then you then you then you
settle so without without the fee being without the true fee the true reward to
the miner being fully reflected in the chain how do you know how much it's
actually costing to produce the block you don't and you know you could
certainly see a system where you have this kind of sensor demanding people get
authorization to confirm right and that authorization comes to the fee that you
pay you know someone somehow else and you wouldn't see that and other miners
wouldn't be able to potentially pick it up in those transactions and does this
play also into your theory of
waste heat?
Could that play into the scenario too
where they're
profiting from the waste heat
produced by the miners or the generators
running the miners?
I would
offhand I don't have a way
to connect that to what we're talking about.
I did write one or two topics
on that a while ago and I got some good input from
some waste miner
producers and positive.
I think we have it right.
but in the end
So just just comment on waste energy mining. I mean what you're doing is you're
You're not you're not reducing the amount of energy consumed, right?
You know you're using a different source so presumably the same amount but by removing that
Removing the consumption take all Bitcoin mining and you move it to waste energy mining stuff that would just be vented, right?
So it's still being consumed. It's either being vented or it's being turned into ones and zeros
but it's still being consumed so but now you have this less less being demanded
in the market for you know marketable energy well lower demand you're gonna
reduce the cost right which is now going to increase demand so you're probably
you know because because energy is a is a factor in production of everything so
likely the going price of energy maintains itself pretty pretty constant
over time right so you reduce you move everybody else somewhere else and now more energy gets
consumed so what happens is there's greater wealth right more more stuff is getting produced than
before for the same amount of energy being consumed so yeah you're tapping a new energy
source and um you know the same amount of energy is being consumed and people are getting wealthier
great yeah um but that that doesn't uh that doesn't tie into like the profit of like
so that's tech yeah so there's not like a fee off-chain fee that they're they're also getting
but it is like a different profit well so if you can if you can tap a cheaper energy source than
your competitors now you can make a greater profit and therefore the uh opportunity cost
now accrues to your competitors and they move to that same energy source and you know people
recognize this is this is a transitional um advantage you move move there take advantage
of it everybody else eventually has to move there um or the reduction in cost of the primary
marketable source of energy now benefits your competitors right your cost is going to start
going up people start charging you for this energy right why wouldn't they right it's now got demand
and and the cost of the market energy is going down because supplies demand is being removed
from it so eventually it equals out right this is um but there's there's this entrepreneurial
opportunity to go and take advantage of it in the interim yeah do you do you think that that's a
factor that will help distribute mining long term because i i would imagine it's hard to find you
know the cheapest energy in the world all in one place for the amount of energy capacity that
bitcoin is going to need right uh well the more more places you can find energy the more highly
distributed you know in small scale bitcoin mining can be presumably um i mean i don't know if what
we're talking about is actually more distributed from the sense of being able to hide which is
what we're really talking about right i can run a mine and it's illegal to mine can i do it
hiding you know next to some you know oil well well i would say like the big one is excess hydro
right this is where a lot of the focus has been um because during the during the downtimes of
of energy consumption around these dams yeah the price of electricity goes down tremendously
but they all have capacity issues in different areas right so it would naturally distribute
around the world because you can't power all the miners just at one dam well the problem with hydro
is it's not portable so you know i mean their dams tend to be fairly large and so these ones
you're going to run a bitcoin mine off of excess hydro power so they don't hide very well but the
other problem with um we call renewables right uh solar hydro wind is that the the the capital cost
of your mining hardware start starts to way out see way exceed your energy advantage because of
intermittency of the power i looked at this you know pretty closely well it just didn't make sense
if you can't have 24 7 power you're you're you're struggling yeah that's what uh james chang and i
actually talked about for a little bit he he was big in the solar industry and optimistic at one
point but optimistic about it at one point but uh you can have a stretch of cloudy days a stretch
of windless days and i have a good friend who's big in the wind industry um did a wind startup
sold it to con ed or something you know it was big billion dollar stuff and very excited about
the fact that we can get negative energy cost right you can actually get energy that they pay
you to take um certain times of the day and it sounds very exciting to a bitcoiner but when you
look at the the times that you get it and the amount of idle time you have on your your hardware
you realize that the depreciation of your hardware is rapid enough to far outweigh the advantage of
even free or negative cost energy but shouldn't shouldn't that improve over time as well right
asic lifestyle uh modification of asics and stuff well that's basically assumption that we reach
some kind of limit in yeah in computational speed which in human history has not happened
right and if you've read there's a paper on it it's very very theoretical paper that way beyond
my ability to fully understand but the thermodynamic thermodynamic limit of computing
power and that's basically the app you know once once you've reached this limit it's not possible
to get any smarter right and it does exist it's very interesting it has to do with you know speed
of light and distance and and computational ability as a consequence of that and okay so
we're we're not even close to that right we're so yeah there may not be innovations that we see
that are going to improve computation but i think it's a fairly reasonable assumption to
to assume that we'll keep moving towards that theoretical limit over time as we have throughout
the entirety of human history um so yeah if if nobody could make anything that went any faster
eventually you know the the the the hardware that does the computations would just get cheaper and
cheaper and cheaper and um you know in terms of real cost and yeah that would your depreciation
of your hardware would start to become less important in relation to the cost of your energy
right now it's a major factor um so yeah asics are akin to driving a car off the car dealership lot
they start depreciating right away is that fair to say
i don't know if it's quite the same because that's just like this this cliff immediately
right it's more of a continuous right uh depreciation but it is pretty rapid i don't
i mean i'm not i did a little bit of mining years ago but um it's just a period of i think a couple
years where you go from you know the full cost down to zero um you know and there are times when
you can bring it back online uh becomes worth it but yeah that's a that's a that's a very
prohibitive thing i think in terms of renewables now um and for probably ever but um yeah if you
could compute with no hardware cost then yeah cheaper energy is all that matters but there's
and it's not just hardware costs we use that as a kind of a summing up of all the costs aside from
the pure energy costs of mining and there's there's security and there's network and you know
there's also the cost of latency and variants um that are kind of inherent in the protocol
all. But the other costs, you know, are not immaterial. And people kind of figured this
out. But the more sources you can tap and the more, you know, the smaller you can make
your minds, the better it is in terms of security at a system level.
yeah that just makes sense right and i think it's the economics of the
uh stranded energy alone like i think it makes sense that bitcoin mining will be distributed
in the future but it's unknowable right now um i think uh i think once you get oil producers
to sort of realize this that's one thing that sort of fascinated me a decade in is that oil
producers don't sort of realize this this uh additional monetization they can have via bitcoin
mining if they were to right if you're sitting on an oil hoard right and you're just waiting for the
price to get where you think it's going to be optimal for you to sell it you know you're you're
that's depreciating right there's a cost for storing it like anything else and there's an
opportunity cost that accumulates over time for not having the capital invested in you know in
earning interest um in some production so it's just sitting there as inventory and and at some
point it makes sense to to convert it to capital and and uh you know so but i i you know i haven't
done the math on um what those costs and trade-offs are for people that store you know huge volumes of
oil you know i don't know um let's see what i got here yeah so what do you think we need to focus
on right now like uh as people building building on bitcoin like what what is most imperative in
your mind to to fortify like we had the the arabus attack vector was uh brought to the
brought to people's consciousness a few weeks ago where isps can sort of uh just the way that
bitcoin core the way that nodes connect with each other and isp can attack and partition off
particular nodes if they wanted to and that seems like a pretty big attack vector but what do you
think we need to focus on as as a network right now i think the most important aspect that that
we need to resolve is privacy um you know bitcoin is very transparent and that's problematic if you
you know if you envision using it in the way it's envisioned uh working so um i always applaud the
efforts of you know core devs that are working on real privacy technology you know um mixing
only goes so far not far enough and um there's there's issues with you know true anonymity as
well inflation things like that right provability so those are hard problems but i'm hopeful that
they are surmountable problems and we can get you know better privacy in terms of delinking
transactions or you know not having them visibly linked i think that's the most most important
issue in bitcoin what do you think it's something that could be on the horizon that could contribute
to that are you interested in snore signatures it's all interesting and i you know i i tend i
mentioned before online here that uh i tend not to comment on too much on the specifics of things
that i haven't written myself i just don't know them well enough to be able to make an informed
judgment but um from what from what i've seen you know uh there's there's good work and it makes
sense and um i'm hopeful that we'll make enough progress to be able to have that you know delinking
capability but in terms of what's going to make it happen i'm not it's not entirely clear to me yet
and once once something does start to you know look effective and working and people are using
it then you know we'll bring it into the bitcoin um and make it um try to try to make it easier
for people to use yeah and then uh another thing you were you were talking about before we hit
record here you say you don't believe bitcoin's scarce um that's not really um what i what i mean
um what i mean is that people overblow the importance of scarcity like value comes from
scarcity well there's two concepts of scarcity in economics there's property all of which is
scarce right it has it's not you know infinitely available at no cost to retrieve right but it's
not a relative thing it's just an absolute concept it's either scarce or it isn't right and anything
that we consider property has to have that aspect otherwise it's just not property it's freely
freely given nature given as the austrians would say um and then there's scarcity as it's used um
kind of generally and uh in discussion on you know what the markets are doing you know so
So that's really just a euphemism for price.
There's more available on the market.
There's less available on the market.
There's more demand for it.
There's less demand for it.
So as demand increases, it becomes more scarce.
And as supply increases, it becomes less scarce.
But those are relative terms.
There's no absolute scarcity in any of those things.
Gold doesn't have absolute scarcity.
It just changes in price because demand and supply vary.
so the importance of you know scarcity is important for something to be property
but the idea that something is better at being a money because it has higher scarcity
is not even a rational statement it doesn't make any sense and i think so i was mentioning
um a couple errors in austrian economics earlier and and i think maybe one of these
propagates from an era that persists
that gold is inflationary,
whether Bitcoin's inflationary
under the issuance schedule, right?
So it's kind of, you know, it's technical economics speak,
but basically the money relation,
which is what we're talking about
when we talk about supply inflation, right?
This is really what we're talking about.
And Austrians refer to this as the money relation,
the amount, the number of units of the money, right?
whatever that however that's described ounces of gold if you want in proportion
to the goods demanded in the money right which is equivalent to saying demand for
the money right I need the money so I can get the goods so you have a certain
amount of money you have a certain amount of demand for goods in the money
that ratio is the money relation and if that ratio doesn't change right either
through a change in supply of the money or change in demand for goods in the
money then then it's kind of just a tautology the ratio hasn't changed in other words there's no
there's no there's no inflation as a consequence of either of those things right there could be
inflation for other other reasons that prices change right but not as a consequence of either
increasing the supply of money or say changing demand for goods right so that's what we're
talking about we're talking about the importance of scarcity and it's very clear you know that
the money relation changes when there's say an introduction of supply so we look at the dollar
and you know we introduce a trillion dollars at 94.5 you know percent discount it's not quite
that because the hundred dollar bills have a different cost but you know we introduce this
supply with a very tiny consumption of goods to produce the supply so that changes the money
relation but when you mine gold or when you make any money in a competitive market one that's not
monopoly controlled the competition and the the fact of competition ensures that you consume as
much in goods as you produce in money right the gold miner buys consumes destroy you know depreciates
his property in producing the gold and that's a trade he's traded one for the other to him they're
worth I mean it's worth the trade right so in in Austrian economics that's pretty well recognized
but at the same time there's a contradiction because that introduction of gold is seen as
inflationary which it's not because the money relation is unchanged when you
as soon as you remove those goods you destroy them right in the production of the gold
the miner doesn't have them anymore and he gets the gold and now has to go buy them so now the
demand for the goods have been reduced but now they're increased again with the money.
So the money relation remains unchanged in a market supplied money.
So the error that the interaction of that gold is inflationary propagates into other
things like bitcoin.
Now we introduce more bitcoin, it's inflationary.
No it's not.
It doesn't change the money relation at all.
The miner has consumed as much goods that were demanded in the money as he has produced
in money and then goes and spends that money to get the goods that he no longer has, right?
That's so new demand.
So creation of a market money is not inflationary.
And so it doesn't matter if the supply of it is fixed or not, right?
The creation of, well, the cap is ultimately exists as long as you're creating more Bitcoin,
it's not changing the money relation at all.
You're creating more gold, you're not changing the money relation at all.
So and that's true for all goods.
create more goods, you've destroyed as much in producing the goods as you've created,
right? Including the opportunity cost that the goods would have provided for you, which
is where the return, the profit comes from, right? That's the amount that the producer
makes is the opportunity cost that he spent by destroying those goods. So, yeah, I know
I'm getting all the technical about economics, but this idea that like there's more or less
scarcity um it just doesn't make any sense right it doesn't matter how much there is or that more
is being produced what matters is that it's produced by a market versus monopoly controlled
but how's it not inflationary if i if there were ever to be more bitcoin issued than the 21 million
that are now defined in the protocol how's that not inflationary it costs you as much to make the
new bitcoin as you get in bitcoin that cost is destruction of demand of is destruction of goods
that were demanded in the money but as that's for the miners right but what about like just somebody
those miners have destroyed so say they make a hundred thousand dollar block i'm sorry for using
dollars but and they've destroyed a hundred thousand dollars in their own capital to make
that block right that that capital that that that was capital that was demanded in the money right
Now there's less of that capital demanded in the money, right?
So I'm sorry.
Now there's an equivalent amount because once they obtain the $100,000 block, what do they do with it, right?
Eventually that money becomes demand for the goods that they no longer have, that they spent.
They get their investment back, right?
So that's new demand for stuff that's been destroyed, right?
It doesn't exist anymore.
So the money relation does not change.
And this is why you observe gold having a fairly constant purchasing power over time despite continual inflation of the money, right?
Not of the money, not a net change to the money relation.
So it nets out over time.
It nets out instantly.
Yeah.
Right?
I mean, I have to go and take my own capital and destroy it in order to make anything,
and then I get back what I destroyed.
No change to the ratio.
Right?
And that is how this theory about inflation, that is what it means.
It's the money relation, right?
so it's very easy to show that the money relation doesn't change when you produce new goods right
it doesn't take anything from anybody right the miner destroys his own property and produces some
new property of the same value to him right could you argue that it takes the purchasing power of
other bitcoin holders or no that but that's that's exactly the point right it doesn't that's what
purchasing power is it's the it's the rate purchasing power of money is this ratio of the
amount of money to the goods demanded in the money right so if that ratio doesn't change
you can't say that the inflation the the creation of new money is causing a loss of purchasing power
because the purchasing power definition has not changed at all and again we can observe this over
long periods of time with gold now the the production of gold is not controlled by some
inherent property of gold it's controlled by demand for it right more demand more supply and
so people look at gold and say well it's you know only grows at about two three percent per year
something like that one to three percent per year well okay so if you look at the supply of goods in
the world that exist growing over time we call that growth capital growth capital growth is a
consequence of what really time preference so interest you earn what the products you make
and sell right those products that get sold that's the return on your investment that is the interest
right the new products so interest is the growth is the creation of new stuff right but while you're
while you're making this new stuff you're destroying old stuff all the stuff that exists
depreciates the depreciation rate for stuff globally you know is a fairly consistent number
right if people get poor they tend to make things last longer but stuff depreciates at a certain
rate stuff is produced at a certain rate the interest rate around 10% historically right so
we have a depreciation that's say around six seven percent depending on what you know buildings
depreciate it maybe four or five percent factories maybe seven eight percent food you know hundred
percent so so this is there's it but this is constant depreciation of everything that exists
and there's this constant production of new things what's the difference between that that's growth
that's what remains you know that's the that's the net accumulation of stuff over time and that
tends to be around 2%, 3%.
So this growth of stuff demanded in the money
causes an increase in the amount of money.
Otherwise, money would become infinitely profitable to make
and a lot of opportunity cost for not mining it.
So yeah, gold gets produced at the rate of economic growth.
Not surprising.
But there's a difference there with gold total supply
and Bitcoin total supply
and how it's provable how much there is, right?
Because there's no way to actually tell how much gold there is
in the world or the universe or whatever you want to measure that on.
So we're talking specifically about creation of new Bitcoin
and creation of new gold.
When you stop creating new Bitcoin, you have a different situation, right?
I'm talking about the introduction of new units works just like with gold, right?
It doesn't cause a change in purchasing power
because it doesn't cause a change in the money relation.
But then if you stop producing it,
So in other words, if it got more, if there was more and more goods demanded in the money all the time, the price of the cost and therefore the value of producing new units goes up with that.
If that goes down, the same thing happens, right?
It becomes cheaper.
So you're always producing it at a cost that doesn't change the money relation.
But when you stop being able to produce it, now you can produce none.
What happens?
Well, more and more goods are demanded in the money.
And the money doesn't increase, right?
What you have is an increase in the purchasing power of the money.
It changes the money relation.
So this is a different situation when Bitcoin transitions into this no more being produced, right?
But what's causing that increase in demand for goods and the money?
If Bitcoin was the only money, it would be growth, right?
And growth is around 2% to 3% per year.
And it's a consequence of people investing in production, not holding, right?
Actually getting interest from their money.
So in that sense, I mean, a deflationary money in this sense, right, has never existed before.
Deflationary anything has never existed before.
And it has certain consequences that people don't really look at very closely.
The consequence, so you can imagine, say, you have this monetization period where people stop using one money, start using another.
Like what's happening with Bitcoin, right?
They use one instead of the other.
So now more and more goods are getting demanded in the money.
the money is appreciating in purchasing power as a consequence of that right and it's still being
produced at no change in purchasing power and then it stops and it continues to get monetized right
but what there's a and as a result you're going to have increase in purchasing power as long as
that monetization continues but then you hit another limit which again is unique to bitcoin
bitcoin is unique in more than one way more than fixed supply it's unique in that it has fees
and a fixed rate of transaction
and that has consequences
which gold doesn't have
nothing else has
so while you can
expect
a
growth rate of appreciation
of the purchasing power
that also produces
a limit to the usability of the money
right
because some
transactions would be too small to send
well they are already
yeah right we call it dust yeah right so it's an interesting idea like so um the proper analogy
when you look at gold you don't look at it as okay the smallest transactable unit of gold is the atom
right we never use that term we use dust but in bitcoin people tend to look at divisibility
as the satoshi the satoshi is the atom right it's not the divisibility limit the divisibility limit
is dust just like it is with gold you can't divide you can't spend it on something if it's below that
limit that limit like gold is not a hard and fast number right it's more of becomes unusable at some
point right so if the dust limit is i don't know you know like if the dust limit becomes the point
where you you can't buy coffee anymore oh some people would some people wouldn't but it's right
there on that that line right but then it moves up now you can't buy a car anymore now you can't
buy a business anymore right you you you you're excluding all of the transactability all the
things that could be demanded in the money below that level just like gold right you can't transact
those things in gold so now you can aggregate transactions right start layering like happens
with gold happen with gold right but the interesting thing about gold is that dust limit doesn't tend
to move because as more demand accrues in the for the money more gets created so the dust limit
It tends to stay right around the same level, roughly, right?
So with Bitcoin, that doesn't happen because as the dust limit moves up, you're increasing the fee ratio, right?
Well, the fee ratio is the dust limit.
So if you reach the point where you've got a limit, it can't transact anymore because it's, you know, 10% of my transaction is going to fees.
When I start aggregating and I do a lot of transactions, you know, off-chain essentially, and then I settle, I'm still paying 10%, you know, of everything that I have left in fees.
So the aggregation process doesn't change that.
It just moves up the size of the minimum transaction, right?
I call it the utility threshold.
Instead of being, you know, a $1 transaction is the smallest you can do in Bitcoin.
It's now a $10 or $100 or $1,000 or $1,000,000.
But as you move up, there's fewer and fewer types of transactions that you can do for goods, right, at those higher levels.
You can't buy coffee, you can't buy cars, you can't buy these things.
So you've excluded all this demand for goods while you've now moved that threshold up.
So there's this proportional relationship between the utility threshold, right, and the value that can be represented by the money.
I mean, the more that goes up, you increase larger transactions and you remove smaller transactions.
but there's a lot more smaller transactions, right?
And there's this proportionality that you can assume
between the size of transactions
and the total amount of value represented by them.
Say, like, for example,
there's 10 times as many $10,000 transactions
as there are $100,000 transactions, right?
So you've excluded all $10,000 transactions
and everything up to $100,000
when you've moved the utility threshold up to that point.
So basically what that means is you've,
as a consequence of fees hitting the point where people can't transact you can you can aggregate
you move things up kind of centralize right all these lightning hubs or whatever you know settling
for people but you can't represent more utility in the money right the money the bitcoin still
you know again it can move up by excluding other stuff but it can't take on more
so some people will say that well we can you know we can just keep everything
off chain right and do all these low-cost transactions but that's not really
very rational because if you can't settle you have no security so you know we have a channel
but I can't settle because it's 100% of the cost of what I have just to open or close that channel
so I can't close it so you just rip me off I have no there's no consequence it's not a realistic
solution for me to settle and close the channel if the cost of closing the channel wipes out
you know years of gains even 10 even a 10 fee level wipes out a full year of investment gains
and you have to open and close so 10 fee level wipes out two years of investment gains right
so do you do you see this as like a huge limiting factor of bitcoin success potentially in the
future no i see it as something that if understood it leads to certain inevitable outcomes right so
once you reach a proportion of fees to and this is certainly what you would do if you had the usage
that people imagine right the fee level would there's only you only get like five or six thousand
transactions through the chain every 10 minutes right and they can be high value again excluding
everything below it right but once you get to the proportion that people will no longer accept say
I mean, say it's 100%.
That's fairly easy, right?
I think, you know, even if you say 10%, that's pretty high.
That's about the highest you see in terms of remittances and other things that people will actually pay to use the money.
And, again, 10% is about a year's worth of investment gains.
So that's two years wiped out for an opening and closing a channel.
That's pretty high.
So let's say, you know, we get to 10% fees.
Now you can't represent any more demand for goods in the money.
The more you move up, the more you exclude proportionally.
So what happens is you have this money that's, you know, usable to that extent, but no more demand can be represented.
It can't represent any more goods.
It can't take on any more economic value.
So demand moves somewhere else, right?
But another unique thing about Bitcoin, unlike gold, for example, is you can make another one that's exactly the same, right?
Exactly the same in the technology, right, in the way it operates, not in the history of it.
But you can't do that with gold.
You can't make another gold.
But then again, you don't need to
because you always just mine more
and you don't have this dust problem, right?
This divisibility problem.
So I think what it inevitably leads to
is at that point when it's too expensive
to use the money for, you know, all these things,
you end up with just another one that looks just like it
with lower security, lower transaction values.
As it gets monetized, right?
You could reach the same limit and do it again.
you could just create another exactly the same copy just another genesis block and do it again
it doesn't happen now because because of fear's law you use the better money right low fees better
security use that one why would you use another one but when you get to the point where you can't
right it becomes more costly to use what was presumably the better money now now you use
something else so substitutes and people just ignore you know substitutes you know it's all
this maximalism and shit coiners and all this stuff but but you know this is how bitcoin evolved
right and and doing it again would make sense in the case where it becomes too expensive to use
and there's nothing wrong with that right would that create a scenario where that new chain just
helps bitcoin as it is now find an equilibrium and lower the fee ratio for that well it would
be lower on the new chain and presumably some activity that's on the other chain that you know
could be moved to to the lower fee chain would but it maybe doesn't have to right the higher
value transactions are being transacted on the chain that has higher level of security and people
will arbitrage you know security for um for cost right they don't want that level of security they
use a lower cost but there's no reason to do that now right so it doesn't happen it can't can't ever
get off the ground because there's there's a better money um but so what people imagine this
perpetual increase in price because of fixed supply ignores the effect of fees just completely
ignores it fixed supply is unique to bitcoin but so are fees right and um and that can't be ignored
so this this kind of like we all sit around do nothing and make money off of off of speculating
on people using Bitcoin more and more has a limit, right?
It's monetization, you know, okay,
where, you know, the money's being monetized,
but Bitcoin becomes at some point fully monetized.
Gold never becomes fully monetized.
There's always new gold being produced
and, you know, as in response to economic growth.
So that new demand would not accrue its value
to existing holders as it accrues on another chain.
And that's the thing that the Hodler community wouldn't like to hear.
But it doesn't hurt Bitcoin at all.
It's exactly what you would want.
You would want the money to continue to be useful.
I can see Matt getting triggered over here.
I mean, it would basically end up being like an unpegged.
I try not to trigger too much.
It would be a side chain with like an unpegged utility token.
No, just another chain.
It can't be a side chain.
Why not?
Because that implies greater demand in the money itself.
Right.
Right. So so so sidechains are essentially if you look at money and credit in the abstract, right, sidechains are credit, right?
You lightning. It's credit that's fully offset by the lockup of the of the money.
Right. So it's a one to one credit, but it's it has to be settled in the money.
Credit is always settled in the money. Sidechains settle in in the money.
Lightning settles in Bitcoin. Right. And that ability to settle is essential to the security of those credit systems.
right and as i described before that ability to settle starts to go away when you reach this
threshold but you would have theoretically you would have like multiple chains with different
security models that could swap in between settle back to bitcoin in like a trust minimized manner
settling back to bitcoin would cost you that high level that you're trying to avoid right
so no this is it to me it's like not hard to imagine i don't know why it tends to be hard
people imagine but you can imagine bitcoin is this set of chains right where once one gets
fully monetized and it becomes expensive to use now there's there's potential for another
to actually take on value and as that starts to happen yet another until you've represented as
much in value um that people will demand in the money um i mean there's got there is some limit
to that right the the amount of all goods in the in the world for example um or the black market
fraction of them or something and it may be the may be true that that there's never enough demand
in one chain to for that to ever happen right we never get to a fee level that is high enough um
that people care but you know we've already gotten to a fee level that's high enough that
people don't do some things but um it's not reached the should say you can you can mitigate
that through layering and continue to move up on chain the the size of the transaction the minimum
size of the transaction that you can do but as you create enough demand even through lightning
or side chains right as you create more and more demand to settle right you're going to increase
the fee cost of settling to the point where now it's not secure anymore because you can't settle
in a cost-effective way i mean you know even even to just buy one thing right even if you want to
open a channel, close it, settle, or you expect you might need to close it
because the other person may be not so trustworthy.
So if you're spending a 50% fee, you know, just to open and close,
you've wiped out 100% of the money you put in the channel.
So there is a fee level at which point the money becomes unusable,
even in layering situations.
What do you think about, like, dust holidays?
Have you ever heard that concept?
No, it sounds like fun.
where miners allow users with dust to consolidate UTXOs
to get over that fee ratio that you're alluding to.
Allow meaning miners donate to people.
So you can see it as donate or in your scenario
where another chain were to start,
they could also see that their capital they've invested
in the miners on the main chain may become less valuable
if people move over to this other chain.
classic example of economic an economically irrational proposal uh because it's individual
cost socialized gain right yeah there's some value to me but it's the same as the value to
everybody else right so it's like it's it's very economically irrational even though people might
do it right uh you can't say that they won't because value is subjective but um if you're
looking at just purely economic um and not just the financial gain right but the projected
financial gain of it it's not rational it's just similar to something that somebody pointed out the
other day um bishop i think he said he said hey what if somebody attacks the money by stealing
and burning coins that they steal you know so reducing supply right of things demandable in
the money um and yeah it's but it's economically irrational right like i'm going to take on all
the cost of doing this plus the opportunity that i could actually spend the money maybe i don't
want to take the risk of spending it right but i took the risk of stealing it and then i burn it
and everybody gets the same benefit that i get right brian was the one who said that right yeah
twitter yeah yeah we yeah we talked about a little bit on twitter and and i think he sees that it's
just an interesting real idea i guess the argument was is that like using bitcoin privately is
extremely difficult right now so they would skip that hurdle right so that yeah the malware would
just be like burn and once we see it's a certain amount gets burned to this address then we right
If you can write some machine to go do it, right,
then the only cost to you is the machine,
and people do that stuff just for fun.
Certainly feasible, but like somebody going out
and just stealing somebody's money
and then throwing it away, right?
It's like go rob the Fed
and burn some dollars or something, right?
It's socialized gain.
It's a common problem, right?
You have socialized benefit and individual cost or whatever.
So I don't see those kind of things as economically rational.
It's just like the idea that people would donate
hash power against a 51 attack and just pay their own money to help out the community possible
might even happen to some extent but you can't make an argument that that's security because
at least i don't because it's if it's not economically rational then you can't expect
it to happen yeah that's fascinating i can i can hear the freaks getting some freaks getting
triggered out there but these are again like these are realities and and i mean there's no
the only people that would get triggered by anything I just said presumably are
people that are speculating and see perpetual price increases there's not a
negative to Bitcoin not at all right this is this is a proposed solution to a
problem that's inevitable if there's enough adoption great now we can see
because you said well do you see it just not working I said no I don't it can
work like this what's the problem with that there is no problem with that not
in terms of the money doing what Satoshi envisioned or what people imagine doing
which is providing a stateless money.
So the whole community tends to get driven
by speculation, right?
I mean, it's not investment, first of all, right?
Investment is when you lend your money
to somebody else for production.
Speculation is betting that the price will go up or down
based on future demand for goods and the money.
And all prices are speculatory to some extent,
but interest is predictable, right?
There is time preference,
and if everybody has high enough time preference,
no goods get produced.
No goods get produced, then people pay more for money,
and even people with high time preference
will lend that money.
So it's interesting, economic growth is predictable.
If you have economic,
and people tend to look at these things as like,
we have growth, and we have contraction,
and they're kind of offsetting, it's not.
Growth is perpetual and predictable.
Recession is an anomaly, it's an exception.
In other words, what it means is that the depreciation of goods is now exceeding the production of goods.
Things are getting used up faster than they're getting produced.
So there's less and less goods, you know, over time.
And what happens when there's less and less stuff?
People pay more for stuff, right?
Therefore, people pay more for money to make the stuff.
Interest rates rise.
Stuff gets produced.
People conserve.
They don't use up stuff as fast.
Depreciation schedules slow down.
so you there's there's a natural aspect of growth which is a consequence of people wanting things
and and of time preference so um i don't i can't remember i can't remember where i got on the
tangent of of growth being you know kind of natural but um bitcoin's gonna pump forever
that was yeah that was the tangent yeah i mean i mean doing doing nothing and making money as a as
speculating on what's predictable is completely
irrational in my mind right like if it's predictable
you can't speculate on it's already priced in
so what you're doing is you're
guessing you're gambling and sometimes you know
that's a good gamble
sometimes it's not but it's not
this is a point I was making right speculation
is inherently not predictable it's what it means
right it's the part that's not known
or you know provable
so
the
yet people who believe that there's this perpetual not predictable but but predictable
perpetual growth in price for bitcoin um are assuming things that just don't necessarily
hold up i mean there is growth in the in the case of monetization right people moving from
one month money to another but it's impossible to say whether that has already been fully factored
in right so i did a little computation i mean people do crazy computations on trying to estimate
price like if we're speculating on price what is it we're speculating what's the demand that's
going to eventually exist you know for use of the money and some people will take like
total amount of bank money in the world and say well if bitcoin substituted that
well when i say bank money i mean credit right bank accounts well bitcoin's not credit it's
money so that's not rational to to substitute that there will be credit in bitcoin as well
otherwise there'll be no production unless it's in some other money right so you take the total
amount of money in the world say state money and look at bitcoin just replacing all of it
and then you realize well okay if it's if white market you know kind of goes away then you're
left with 20 to 30 percent of the world's economy is black market and if bitcoin was to
represent all that fraction of the money and you would take the net present value of that say
10 years out right bitcoin represents all of the black market you'd have a certain
implied price and you know taking into account some amount of loss of bitcoin and things like
that but at the current price from what i was able this is a very rough approximation but at
the current price it implies about a seven percent adoption of the black market okay i mean it's
something's material that's significant right that's i mean it implies a future net present
value of seven percent ten years in the future of um of seven percent adoption of black market and
if you imagine like it being only black market it couldn't be the only money used in the black
market because the black market tends to need things in the white market right so that's why
they're always trying to get you know there's money long is why dollars get used and not just
some commodity like coke or something right so so there has to be white market money used by the
black market too so you could really never in that scenario i don't think you could ever really fully
represent you know black market activity in bitcoin but some percentage absolutely and we
already have that um but the vast majority of well i don't know i can't i can't say this is
again this this come this comes down to not provable but there's there's presumably a
significant portion of activity in bitcoin that causes demand to transact and therefore price
that's white market right and if you're speculating on full white market adoption you're you know
you're making a fully different set of assumptions um yeah fascinating it's been an incredible
conversation we're an hour and 46 minutes in now uh we got a hard stop here in like 25 minutes but
But is there anything in particular you want to touch on before we wrap up here or anything that obviously we've been talking about?
To the moon.
To the moon.
Obviously we've been talking a lot.
Orange coin go up.
I love this episode because we talked about, we're talking about a lot of maybe blind spots that a lot of Bitcoiners, including myself, have when it comes to the limitations of the system.
Yeah, maybe.
What else is interesting?
I don't know what you ask.
I have plenty of things I can talk about.
So how's the rebuilding of your motorcycle going?
Well, I managed to keep all my fingers.
I got some bad cuts from the grinding wheel, flap wheel.
My wheels are coming back when I get home in a couple days.
I'll be fully done.
And the frame's all welded up and got a lot of the parts.
So hoping to have it together by the end of the year.
What's that process like?
So when you're building, do you do that to not think about Bitcoin
and maybe refresh your mind a little bit?
I don't know.
I've had this bike since 1984.
And I took it to college, put a lot of miles on it.
And it's been sitting for about 25 years in my basement.
So my daughter wanted to do a project with me for school.
And so she got me motivated to do it.
But I ride a lot now.
I keep a bike down in Los Angeles at a friend's house and go to Mexico and the desert and stuff.
And I rent, travel around the world.
I've been to 80 countries so far.
I like traveling.
It gets harder and harder to get the new ones the more you get.
Why do you say that?
Well, it's just like stuff tends to happen in the same places.
I go back to Riga.
I'm going to Tel Aviv.
I'm in Tokyo, whatever places I've been to before.
So I did a, I'll give you an example.
I rented a bike in June and I bought myself in London and I went out to the
channel and I did, I did a conference in Amsterdam and a meetup.
And then I did, I did nine countries in Europe and I got one new country,
Lichtenstein.
I had to go out of my way to get to Lichtenstein.
And so it's, it's just getting, it gets harder.
But I got to, I got to hit Eastern Europe,
I think next summer on a bike and get 10 new countries and I'll be done with
all the major european countries this is going to be embarrassing to say but i think i've only
been like five five or six better than most people other countries 80s and is awesome that's
that's impressive i've only met one person that's been to more i mean i know there's a lot of people
have been to more but i've only actually met one person that was like so disappointed like really
you've been more than me i mean how many total countries are there 220 it depends on how you
count but my app i think it's around 250 yeah right his turn vase the only one has been to
more places i don't know i don't i don't know andreas is doing pretty well you know yeah um but
i don't i think he's in 60s probably hey well traveling let's all travel more i want to travel
more absolutely um well eric thank you again for coming by dude this is uh sure my pleasure thanks
for having me it's been an immense pleasure for me as well matt do you have any i really enjoyed
this one yeah thank you for coming i always appreciate your work yeah thank you so much
yeah um where can we find you uh twitter evoskul uh yeah we'll put the um the link to the libitcoin
uh github.com slash libitcoin slash libitcoin dash system slash wiki is where all the economic
stuff is um mentioned donations how do people donate um send your money to me no um no we'll
you can contact me
or Tom Pachia
and get the details
the organization
that
we're just working on
a final
IRS
kind of
you know letter
but the
the organization
is formed
it's called
LeBitcoin Institute
and it's basically
just a way for us
to fund
development
and education
through LeBitcoin
and
if somebody wants
to take advantage of that
just contact me or Tom
and uh we can hook you up hell yeah all right that's all we got this week freaks peace and love
