The Adam Mockler Show - Trump SHOCKED as His Own Economy Starts UNRAVELING

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Starting point is 00:00:14 August 1st. All right, we have some major news that pertains to the U.S. economy. We have good reason to believe that over the next few weeks, the American economy could hit a dangerous, self-inflicted shock point caused directly by the tariffs that Trump placed early April. But the thing is, many people don't seem to realize just how bad it's going to get regarding logistics and supply chains. I mean, the White House is in denial. Wall Street seems to be in denial. They're not pricing it in quite yet. And the advice from people like Warren Buffett, I can't get financial advice.

Starting point is 00:00:43 People always say, don't panic, keep a steady hand. The worst thing you can do is panic in a time of volatility and maybe stock up on some extra toothpaste or toilet paper. Just stay calm. But let me break down some of the numbers and some of the early indicators that are pointing towards this self-examination. inflicted shock point because when China to U.S. trade was abruptly shut down on about April 9th or 10th, the immediate effects were muted, right? But there is a 30-day delay. I mean, let's just start here. It says, the worst is yet to come. Trump's tariffs could mean even higher prices and empty shelves within weeks. President Donald Trump's tariff strategy is already causing price hikes

Starting point is 00:01:22 and supply chain snarls. Regarding price hikes, we saw today, Sheen and Timu just started raising prices ahead of new tariffs. Going back to this article, logistics experts told Business Insider that the effects are only going to intensify. Consumers can expect inflation, stock shortages, higher unemployment, and much, much more because the tariffs are going to wreak havoc on the supply chain in the same way that they did during COVID. I mean, listen to this. Even if, under ideal conditions, China flipped a switch tomorrow and resumed full-scale exports, Even if everything bounced back to normal right now, like by the time this video comes out, the supply chain still would not recover instantly and we are still going to see these effects. The main thread that made me realize how deep in trouble we are comes from Moulson Hart.

Starting point is 00:02:13 Now, all that I ask is that you drop a like, drop some blue hearts if you made it this far in the video to help boost this message. But Moulson wrote, the White House has put itself in the country in a bad situation but doesn't realize it yet. around April 10th, China to U.S. trade shut down in the middle of the night. It takes about 30 days for containers to go from China to L.A. It takes about 45 days to go to Houston by C and 45 to Chicago by train and then 55 days to New York by C, on average. Then he says, that means that there are no economic effects of what was done on April 10th until about May 10th. We may see some early market crashes, people trying to price it in, but nobody fully understands what will happen to the supply chains. Around that time,

Starting point is 00:02:59 it's already starting to happen, trucking work is going to dry up. Warehouses will start doing layoffs because no labor is needed to unload containers and some products will be out of stock. I mean, the entire transportation industry in America, transporting supply and goods is a booming, booming industry and is honestly way better than being in manufacturing plants. I think that as America becomes more developed, we actually don't want to go back to. to building more manufacturing plants. I mean, having a transporting job is way better paying and way better on your body for a lot of reasons.

Starting point is 00:03:31 It says around that time, trucking work is going to dry up, obviously because there won't be any goods to transport. And this will all start in the Los Angeles area. All right. About two weeks after, it'll start hitting Chicago in Houston. Let's say the White House, after three weeks, changes its mind on May 31st. Quote, this isn't going to work out like we thought it would

Starting point is 00:03:51 tear us back to zero, even if they completely, changed their mind. Let's say China also says, bygones be bygones. Let's go back to how things were. Let's say every factory in China that got screwed by their orders being canceled says the same thing, quote, no problem will make and ship. We'll all go back to normal, right? The problem is, even under the most favorable economic conditions of China and the factories restarting economic ties, as though nothing happened, it will be at least another 30 days before the economic activity is revived. Remember, the 30-day delay. And that's just in L.A. In Chicago and Houston, you'll need to wait another 45 days. New York at that point will still be getting containers from before

Starting point is 00:04:33 April 10th. They will then have 50 days, May 31st minus the 10th, of zero economic activity at the ports, in trucking of Chinese goods, in warehousing. The whole situation is a bit like lockdowns from COVID. I made that comparison earlier, I think. Once you shut down, it takes a long time to get economic activity back to where it was, if you ever can. And again, keep in mind, this assumes that China and its factories, which make things you can't buy elsewhere, will start right back up again as though nothing happened, which is unlikely. It's almost like we're speeding towards a brick wall, but the driver of the car doesn't see it yet. By the time he does, it'll be too late to hit the brakes.

Starting point is 00:05:10 And really quickly, it seems like we've entered a new period of economic uncertainty due to the current administration, tariffs are spiking, the cost of imports are through the roof, and a lot of small business owners are getting crushed. That's why a lot of business owners turn to Shopify. Shopify powers millions and millions of businesses from giants like Mattel and Jimshark to brands just starting out like mine. And it makes it way easier to set up your store,

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Starting point is 00:05:57 I highly recommend Shopify. You can turn your ideas to reality with Shopify. So go to Shopify.com slash mackler. Again, link in the description, Shopify.com slash mackler. And you can sign up for $1 per month. Click the link at the top of the description. Thank you to Shopify for making this video possible. To continue, let's read some of the early that are pointing to this. Read a few of these stats. Quote, Chinese port activity slumped in early April with data indicating that exports to the U.S. have been hammered by President Trump's tariffs. The cargo handled by ports across China over April 7th to 13th tumbled 9.7% from the week before. Okay, remember that. 9.7% on April 7th to 13th. That was the week of the Liberation

Starting point is 00:06:43 Day tariffs coming into effect. And then, quote, Chinese freight shipped traffic to be busiest U.S. ports, Los Angeles, Long Beach, sees steep drop. And then again, this is a big one. Listen to this. For the week ending on May 3rd, this week, the number of freight vessels leaving China and headed to the Southern California ports, the main U.S. ports receiving Chinese freight and other Asian trade, is down 29% week over week, according to Port Optimizer, a tracking system for ships. Year over year, the data shows a 44% drop in vessels, to arrive the week of May 4th to May 10th. We've seen this playbook before.

Starting point is 00:07:24 During the COVID crisis, when global supply chains were disrupted, it wasn't just products that stopped moving. The entire internal transportation ecosystem broke down, and we're starting to see that. Like, ships literally got stuck. Manufacturers couldn't ship finished goods because ships were getting stuck in the sea, literally. So if history is any guide,

Starting point is 00:07:43 then we may be seeing the same thing repeat, but on a bigger scale. And please check out this clip of the Treasury Secretary, Scott Besson, trying to spin for Trump. It's very rare. I think it happened a couple of times in the 70s for the dollars, stocks, and bonds to get hit as hard as they simultaneously did. And that's why Trump blinked. All of those things got hit at once. Over the last few weeks, if the goal is to get countries to stand with us against China, does it worry you at all that investors seem to be losing confidence in the year? Well, again, you're saying losing confidence, and I don't think that this is necessarily losing confidence. And anything, I've been in the markets for 35, 40 years, anything that happens over a two-week, one-month window can be either statistical noise or market noise.

Starting point is 00:08:34 And we're in this for the long term. And the important thing is that we are setting the fundamentals for a strong dollar. Everything he said feels very contradictory there. He said that you can't use one to two months as like an indicator for how the economy is doing. But then he says we're in this for the long term, implying they're going to keep the tariffs here for the long term. So it's not just going to be one to two months. He's admitting there implicitly admitting there that this will last longer. And it has to.

Starting point is 00:09:05 I mean, he's being dishonest when he says you can't look at one. Well, on its face, yes, you can't just look at one month of economic data. sure, you can have a bad month. But when the bad month is caused by like nuclear tariffs worldwide, then that's not just one bad month. That is the start of a trend down that we're seeing. So he's being incredibly dishonest and almost contradicting himself when he admits that the tariffs are going to be here for the long term, but then claims it's just going to be one off month for some unrelated reason. There makes no sense. A strong economy, strong stock market. We have none of these things. Yes, the stock market has

Starting point is 00:09:41 recovered a little bit, but it's literally two steps back, one step forward. Two steps back, one step forward. And every time we take the one step forward, the Trump administration cheers, Trump supporters cheer, without realizing that we're actually regressing. For investors to know that they, that the U.S. government bond market is the safest and soundest in the world. It's, I shouldn't laugh at that, because I do want it to be the safest and the strongest in the world. It largely has been for the past few decades, say, of a few points in time. But, I'm laughing because it's not. The reason Trump blinked, according to many reports,

Starting point is 00:10:16 is because other countries were slow bleeding the bonds and the stock market was falling at the same time when they're supposed to be inversely related and Trump was like, oh shit, we fucked up bad. So he stopped. But I'm going to leave it there. Drop a like, subscribe. I love all of you.

Starting point is 00:10:29 Thank you to Shopify. I'll see you in the next video. Peace on.

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The Adam Mockler Show - Trump SHOCKED as His Own Economy Starts UNRAVELING

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