The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - Canada Has a Brain Drain Problem. Could Trump Help Reverse It?

Episode Date: September 24, 2026

Why does Canada struggle to hold on to its top talent, and could that be changing? TD Economics' Francis Fong breaks down Canada's "silent brain drain." Then, researchers Sara Seager, Jennifer Spence and Ryan Sullivan share why they're bringing their expertise to Canada.Donate Today : https://tvo.me/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What a difference a year can make. When you support TVO, you're helping bring trusted stories, inspiring ideas, and lifelong learning to people across Ontario. And as a thank you, you can receive the 2027 TVO calendar. Filled with beautiful photography from the documentaries and programs your support helps make possible. It's a year-long reminder of the learning, beauty, and discovery your generosity supports. donate $40 or more to claim yours today at TVO.com slash calendar 2027 and make every month a little more inspiring. Canada has a problem. We produce some pretty talented innovators and researchers, but a lot of those people don't stick around. Many of them go south of the border for opportunities. But now, something interesting is happening.

As the Trump administration slashes science and research funding, some of the very people, we struggled to keep are looking for opportunities elsewhere. So could that give us an opening? Ottawa certainly thinks so. While certain countries are cutting research and turning their back on academic freedom, we're doubling down on science and we're doubling down on research. That was federal industry minister Melanie Jolie last month talking about what she called the largest talent attraction strategy of any Western country.

And it seems to be working. More than 60 international scholars will be heading here, including some Canadians who are coming home. So why do they leave in the first place? What's bringing them back? And can Canada turn this moment into something that lasts? I'm Jay and Jagan-Avathan, and this is the rundown. Okay, first, let's talk about why Canada loses so much talent to begin with. According to a new report from TD economics, it's complicated, and permanent migration data doesn't really tell the whole story. Francis Fong, great to have you in our studios. How are you doing? Thanks for having me, Jay. Great to be here.

All right. So you co-wrote the report, Canada's silent brain drain. Help me understand here. What are we seeing right now? Yeah. So, Jan, this is not a topic that I think is new to a lot of folks. Canada has been talking about brain drain. Going all the way back to the 1970s, this is the last time I actually tracked it. But it's been an ongoing conversation because it is notionally an ongoing challenge that Canada has faced for as many decades as we've been talking about it. In the current context of what, we're talking about. We're really at this flashpoint where, you know, in the last 10 years,

effectively since the oil crash in 2014, and certainly through COVID and today, we've been suffering through low levels of productivity growth. Our standard of living has sort of stagnated in that regard. We're seeing low levels of capital investment. And on top of that, you know, I think a lot of those factors are culminating in the sort of renewed focus on the ways in which skilled labor can be attracted to go elsewhere, obviously notably the United States, with all the benefits that come from moving down there. And so basically we wrote this report to talk about a few things. One, sort of tracking the updated data on sort of where we're seeing the biggest pressures of brain drain.

Short answer is we're seeing it in the highest levels of skilled labor, people with PhDs and master's degrees and whatnot. And then sort of linking that to the broader competitiveness challenges that Canada's facing today. You wrote in your report that Canada's core challenge, not necessarily attraction, but the anchoring. What do you mean by that? Yeah, and I think that really goes to where Canada has historically had strengths and where we've historically had weaknesses. We do a fantastic job of training up talent. Our post-secondary education system across the country is world-renowned, world-class of producing the best talent. We also do an amazing job at doing research and in particular R&D, developing technology and software and new products and things like that.

within the post-secondary education system, where we are challenged and where we continue to see challenge is in the startup culture, in the commercialization culture. And in fact, Canada is doing better than we've done in the past in those regards, because there have been steps to develop venture capital and things of that nature. Where we really struggle today and where we're losing out on a lot of folks is in that longer period of time where you have an entrepreneur that maybe start something up here. Maybe they did some research with a professor, developed some sort of software or IP, and decided to launch a company in Canada. The challenge that we're now facing is how do they find the capital to be able to scale up that company they started and actually

sort of create a world-class competitive firm like a Shopify, which is a good example of a Canadian-born company that has thrived. There are many that could have been Shopify's potentially, but the lack of scale-up capital that they might have been a company. They might have needed to develop that is either lacking or it's just a lot greater than it is in the U.S. They go abroad. I'm curious because your report mentions that those structures that are in place. Actually, it's not even that there's gaps here. We're actually encouraging people to go seek out those ventures south of the border.

Absolutely. And I think a good example of this is where our personal tax rates tend to hit very, very quickly. If you look at where the top marginal tax rate, you know, for those that might not be familiar with tax policy, which is the the, the, the, the, the, the, the tax rate you pay on that next dollar of income. Right. The rate at which you're paying is already very high.

Everyone knows that. You know, people will often complain about their taxes being too high. But the level of income that it would hit at that it would bind at is actually a lot lower than many of our international counterparts. Again, we're going to look to the U.S. here. But if you go to a California or New York, the top marginal rates are comparable, if not higher than they are in Canada. But they don't bind until something like a million dollars in U.S. dollars, let alone

Canadian dollars versus the $280,000 or so it hits here. So, yeah, we're talking about very high levels of income. But when you're talking about top talent, like that's the compensation that they're getting. It's what it costs to get top talent here. Is it the entire story? Of course not. I think that one of the fascinating things about talking about competitiveness, tax policy, regulatory policy, particularly comparing Canada in the U.S.

is just how similar our systems actually are. Any barrier from a business perspective that a Canadian company faces actually exists. actually exist in the U.S. too. But the reality is when you go to the U.S., you have all this extra capital that you might get at. Your market is 10 times larger. You've access to all these maybe advisors that might help you out

and access to different markets and all that kind of stuff. That's the real benefit. And in a way, that puts Canada at an additional disadvantage. We need to be that much more competitive just to retain people than the U.S. does. We are having, for the past couple years now, conversations about how we can be competitive.

What can Canada do to compete here? Yeah. This is sort of the trillion-dollar question. In fact, we just put out a piece of research talking about the potential for investment to really sort of surge over the next 10, 15, maybe even 20 years. We're actually seeing Prime Minister Carney take a lot of the actions that we feel that this country needs to take

to make those things happens. You know, like trying to attract new investment, making us more competitive from a tax perspective, you know, addressing things on the regulatory side. You know, I think where we often are challenged is trying to come up with the nitty-gritty of all the things we need to do because it does get quite complex. Like we do need to talk about regulation. We do need to talk about corporate taxes.

We also need to talk about personal taxes. We need to talk about the immigration system. We need to talk about housing and the cost of living. Because at the end of the day, every part of the economy plays its role. The entrepreneur plays its role. Even the billionaire plays their role. The skilled trades person plays their role. The construction people play their role.

The office worker plays their role. And if we're missing some element of that, then, you know, the whole system tends to look a little bit more shoddy. So right now, we are in a situation where we are very good at creating entrepreneurs and creating, you know, new software and new products and things like that. But we are not really that good at retaining it, especially when we have the behemothouse of the borders. So that's where the challenge is right now.

Well, let's pick up on that. A lot of people might look at this is a great opportunity. So Canada, be an opportunist, seize the moment right now. Can Canada actually compete? I think the short answer is yes. But a lot has to come together to make that true. I think that's probably the difficult element of it. And the reason I say short answer yes is because we've done it in the past.

If you look at the sort of 2000 to 2014 era, You know, not too, too long ago. We don't want to turn back the clock that long. There was a period of time where productivity growth was extremely high. Investment per person per worker was very, very high relative to our G7 counterparts. And things are going pretty well. That happened to coincide with a commodity super cycle. It happened to coincide with a tremendous amount of investment in oil and gas.

And, you know, obviously that's not a free lunch either. Like climate change and the role that plays and all those kinds of things. But, you know, all that being said from a competitive misrespective, there was something going on. What happened during that time? Well, we had a situation where both at the federal and provincial level, there was significant cuts to the corporate tax rate. That played at least some role. We don't, it's hard to say exactly how much, but it played some role.

And there was sort of the broader climate that was going on with commodities than just sort of, you know, allowed that to version. Are we seeing that again? Sort of, somewhat. You know, there's this sort of natural uptick that we're seeing right now just because investment's been in the doldrums for so long. But to keep that going, so long as I think governments sort of band together and say, hey, on a united front, let's address this, this competitiveness issue. I think there's an opportunity for us to sort of see that trend again,

but a lot does have to happen. I want to talk about something that we don't necessarily have the history for, and that's a conversation a lot of people are having right now about us being a potential associate member of the EU with Canada's potential path here of that. Do you think Canada's brain drain problem gets worse? Yeah, it's a good question, Jan. Again, we're a new territory here. I don't think anyone has an answer to this. But I think there's two ways to look at it.

One, you know, the EU being the behemoth that it is, there is an opportunity, I think, for brain drain to go to sort of grow. And I think the enthusiasm with which many Canadians are looking down the barrel of potential, you know. Opportunities to go to Europe to start to work. And get, you know, visa-free work. access, like that's a big deal for a lot of folks to consider. So I think there is that possibility. On the same token, the other way to look at it is the EU is grounded in this whole idea of the multilateral framework, which is that we all benefit when we work together and collaborate

and bring down barriers to capital, trade, and labor flows. I think there's a degree to which, even if there were a big shift in skilled labor to the EU from Canada, that we might benefit just as much from that flow. And regardless, the flow itself is the end goal in that we all are better off when we have a more efficient allocation of labor, more intellectual transfer, technology transfer, increased trade, all of those things, I think are associated with that idea. Now, is it perfect? Obviously, the answer is no. And I think that the EU's history itself and the conflicts therein are evidence of that. But that doesn't sort of suggest one way or another, whether there's going to be this immediate brain chain problem. It's early days, but I appreciate the optimism on it.

So Francis, thank you so much for the insights. Yeah, thanks very much for having me, Jan. So that's what the numbers tell us, but what about the people? These researchers went to the states for opportunities, but now they're heading back. Jennifer Spence, Sarah Seeger, and Ryan Sullivan. Great to have you on the rundown. I would be lying if I said I'm not intimidated by how much brain power is in this panel right now, but I really appreciate you taking the time. I know all of you are in the midst of moving, so thank you so much. You've all been named Eddie Goldenberg Research Chairs of Canada. Help us understand a little bit about the research work that you do. Sarah, I'm going to start with you. You are joining University of Toronto. Tell us what you're doing. I have two things.

One is I work on the search for life beyond Earth. Not little green humanoids, but we're looking for signs of life, like signs of tiny bacteria on solar system planets and moons and exoplanets. But the technology we need to develop to do those things carries us way farther than we usually need to go here on Earth. So my chair is going to be used for translating the complicated technology to uses here on Earth. Not a small feat at all. Okay. Ryan, help us understand. You're going to be working at Trent. Yes, I'm an environmental chemists. So I study chemicals in the environment to better understand the effects that synthetic chemicals have on health and clouds and climate, and then use that knowledge to engineer new

chemistries to remove them from wastewater so we can reuse the water and to also better evaluate chemicals so we can design these problems out of future chemicals and achieve truly sustainable chemicals and materials that we can benefit from. All right. And Jennifer, all of these seem very timely. So, and Jennifer, I understand yours is quite timely with the conversations that we're having right now in North America. Help us understand what you are doing at the University of Ottawa. Yeah, more timely than I'd hoped in some ways.

So look at the Arctic and governance of the Arctic and my areas of interest focus primarily on sort of community resilience. But because of the current situation, I've moved quite a bit into what this means for research cooperation and science diplomacy and how we're going to continue to have good decision making in the region in a rather tense time. Now, as I mentioned off the top, that you three are all returning back,

spent a significant amount of time in the States. Jennifer, help me understand what made you want to come back to Canada? Well, I mean, I would say it's sort of threefold. I will say that, you know, I had a fabulous team at the Harvard Kennedy School. I loved the work that we did. but when I looked at the current environment in the United States and I looked at the type of work I was trying to do, it wasn't an easy environment in which to do that.

And then as a Canadian, and I looked at the opportunities and the role that Canada can play in sort of being a leader in decision making in the Arctic, I really started to turn my mind home to what I might be able to contribute there. And the University of Ottawa, where I will be working, has really prioritized the area.

Arctic. And for me, that was the game changer of being really, knowing that I'll be part of a community of people that are really committed to working in this space. Now, Sarah, you decided actually to come to Canada before the Eddie Goldenberg Research Opportunity was announced. Why was that? Well, there comes a time in everyone's life where it's time to give back. And I just felt at this age and at this stage, after my 20 years at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, you know, it's time to come home. And it all came together because Canada needs us to become more sovereign in technology, trade, and defense. And I'm here to help get that job done.

And Ryan, tell me a little bit about the story for you. Why decide to come from Carnegie Mellon University over to Trent? Yeah, I'd actually been seeking to return to Canada for a while, especially southern Ontario. A big part of that is Canada displays a much larger emphasis on the environment, on environmental research and education. You can see that in the strategic areas that were part of the Eddie Goldenberg competition that you had to align with. Of course, recently funding for environmental research in the U.S. is quite terrible. I was also motivated to contribute back to my home country and certainly Trent's longstanding

focus on the environment where it's really the core of the institution there was very appealing for me as well. I just wanted to throw one thing in here, like how excited I am to be a part of this cohort. And I just heard these, I've just met these other chairs for the first time. I'm wowed by you. And the fact that we're leaving like Harvard, Carnegie Mellon, MIT, and we're coming home and we're bringing with us the innovative spirit that we learned here. And it's going to be awesome. It does seem like another universe of, you know, some superheroes. I'm scrolling through the list of everyone. And it's just like, it is, there is some excitement around here.

I am curious, Ryan, you had mentioned sort of funding. Help me understand. Would you have done this without, you know, the research chair opportunity? Yeah, good question. Honestly, yes, I would have. It's great to have these resources that are offered through the chair, the funding for eight years, but also especially for my kind of work, the equipment funding, the Canadian Foundation for Innovation funding that we get to outfit our labs. My kind of research hinges on having access to state-of-the-art instrumentation,

and we also develop custom instrumentation like the aerosol optical freezers that's glowing behind me. But I was strongly motivated to return to Canada, and I would have returned to a suitable position at a suitable institution for less than this. Jennifer, about you? Well, I mean, I don't think I could have dreamed of this kind of opportunity. That's sort of the way I would put it. You know, when I met with folks from the University of Ottawa and we started to plan this out as part of the building the proposal, they asked me to dream big. And so I did.

But I would say the same thing. It's amazing. And what I see this is as a contribution to an ecosystem of people working in this space. Everything I do, I do in partnership. So this I see is my opportunity to support a whole community people working in this space. I would have come home without that support. but I see this as an amazing, amazing opportunity. Sarah, you mentioned, you know, the excitement.

But there's also sacrifice here. You guys have spent several years studying here. These are positions that don't come often in the institutions that you are leaving. I am curious, what were some of the sacrifices or losses that you've had to make to make this move? Well, I would say saying goodbye to friends, of course, is a tough one and colleagues and, you know, the brainpower. here. It's not necessarily something I want to advertise on national TV, but I'm taking like a pay cut to come home, leaving quite a lot of money on the table for pension. But I don't regret that in any way, actually. I think it's just part of the deal. And as everyone else already chimed in,

the resources to get our work done is not only a huge personal gain, but it's also something we need to take Canada to its next level. What they want us to do, we need the resources to get it there. So there definitely wins and losses. Jennifer, help me understand some of the losses involved in your decision. Obviously, you know, when this was presented to you, a very exciting, you know, dream beg. But obviously, like what Sarah mentioned, you know, there's a lot that is, that you have to kind of put aside to make this move. Yeah. I mean, ultimately, I was incredibly proud. I was the The team that I work with, I absolutely adore. Ironically, the thing that I've been saying is I actually feel like I'm in a position to better support that team from here right now,

but it's a really weird feeling. It's really mixed feelings around what it means to, I mean, I'm an international scholar and so I can, you know, I made a choice to come home. For American scholars who have lived and worked in the U.S., they are still working in that environment. and Harvard has not had an easy run of it. Researchers across the United States have not had an easy run of it. And I just want to find the best way to support my community, but it is not an easy time to be a researcher in the United States. Ryan, can you help me understand a little bit of the environment?

Yeah, I mean, it's highly chaotic. It's particularly bad in certain fields, such as my environmental field, my latest grant was from the EPA, from the Advancing Sustainable Chemistry Program, which is to use what we can understand and predict about what makes chemicals problematic when they get into the environment to design those problems out of new chemicals. And it was terminated for a one-sentence reason two months after it started.

So, yeah, that's tough. And the impact, the biggest impact is on the students, right? Because most of our research funding goes towards supporting students. We hire students, we hire postdocs, and then the funding gets immediately cut off. And my university is internally supporting the students, but that's still very upsetting and challenging for the research team. Sarah, I am curious, you know, there are probably all three of you are ambassadors essentially for Canada here. But I imagine there are some American colleagues of yours who are like, what's it like working in Canada or what's it like being there? Have you gotten any interest from some of your colleagues who are curious about what a potential move is?

You are obviously the first cohort of 64 of these chair positions, but there's a cultural change in institutions in the U.S. Have you had some candid conversations there? Well, I'm starting, I'm literally moving next week and starting October 1st, so I don't have an answer yet. But I do get asked a lot of questions, why would I leave MIT? A lot of people are asking me why I live what, you know, has just been announced as like the top research university in the world. So I get asked that a lot. And I just say because it's Canada's moment. It's great that Canada has taken the steps to recruit you home. Some of the top academics in the world are coming home, some who are coming to Canada for the first time to set up in these

institutions. But as we know, Canada does have a problem in anchoring some of these top-tier people sometimes. And I'm curious, how does Canada stop people from leaving? As all three of you had left, at some point in your careers, how do we stop this? How do you get those research grad students to not only work with you, but stay with you? Yeah, well, first of all, there's another tier as well. So there's the Eddie Goldenberg chairs, but then there's the emerging leaders. And what I think was really clever is many of us have emerging leaders connected to us who will also become junior faculty members. My whole proposal stems around building a community of pre-implementation. postdoc fellows. And so these are people that will become part of that. And it's about,

and as I said, it's about an ecosystem of capacity. And, you know, a lot of the work I do is international and scopes. So I'm working with partners in the Nordic countries. I'm working with people in Europe. And these are people who are frankly, as Sarah said so beautifully, it's Canada's moment. And people are looking to build those partnerships. And with that comes strength through collaboration. Yeah, I just want to jump in on one point. The reason I left was because when I was growing up, believe it or not, I wasn't allowed to be smart.

I wasn't allowed to be ambitious, wasn't allowed to think big and want a lot of resources for myself. It wasn't part of our culture. And there's a lot of good things about having a culture that's more evenly spread. So I had to go to the U.S. where that is allowed. But now Canada's changed and is changing. And in order to have innovation, we need some big thinkers. We need some people who are getting a lot of resources.

and as we heard, to share with the community, but to lead the community. So I think to keep people in Canada, not just in academia, but in businesses and startups, we have to let everyone know that this innovative culture is welcomed and supported, like it is being for the 64 of us in this first round. There are going to be some challenges. You know, there is obviously the general excitement of it all, but when it comes down to, you know, boots on the ground when it comes time to it, there are going to be some challenges there?

Are you prepared for some of those? I think it's going to be hard to be prepared. I've already run into some of them. At MIT, we operate in a certain way here. There's no small talk. There's no filter. It's like all crazy ideas all the time. And so I'm not sure how that's going to be taken.

And I had a few of these already where like in real time I have to like, you know, say, do I throw this out there? Do I not throw this out there? And here at MIT myself and most people are literally on the autism spectrum. And so just going somewhere where more people are just, just slow, calmer and like a bit nicer. It's just a little challenging. Right. I am curious, coming to a university that really does have a focus on environment as well.

But when we're talking about a broader conversation here in Canada, it wasn't that long ago on our program, we were talking about, you know, where does climate and climate change really rest with Canadians right now when we have so many different priorities. I am curious, you know, how do you stop, you know, some brilliant individuals? from perhaps coming with you, researching, but also making sure they stay put with you guys. Yeah, so it really comes down to thinking about the long-term sustainability of the whole research ecosystem in Canada.

These one-off big chairs for senior faculty are great, but that's not what it's going to take to maintain it. So at the same time that the government has been really investing into this talent, acquisition program, they've also been cutting the regular federal funding, and then the provinces play a major role in funding for higher ed. And Ontario has the lowest per capita funding in Canada. So that's another issue to consider, because academia, it's a pipeline, right? So it starts with recruiting students to go to universities, to study, to go on to graduate school, in some cases, to do postdoc research, to become faculty. There need to be appropriate

positions and support all along the way or else this is why so many of us end up in the U.S. for a long time, even if that wasn't necessarily our intent. The culture will definitely be different from the American kind of feast or famine culture. I personally am looking forward to that. I kind of appreciate the more socialized culture in Canada, but I do agree with Sarah that we do need to make space and resources and encourage. you know, innovators as well. And one thing Ryan and I can talk about more later when we're in Ontario is there is a huge need for technology and defense and the pipeline there.

And there will be a lot of opportunity for people to start their own businesses, to join businesses as Canada wants to become more sovereign and those who want to work in defense. So I do have some ideas and I, you know, with us and the business community and everything, to create jobs as well for people. Absolutely. Yeah. I'm about to launch a startup company.

I'm just waiting until I move. Wonderful. Yeah, totally hear you there. I think we've got some overlap. Sarah, Sarah, my last question to you, you know, this is just the beginning, but what would you like to see from this program?

Obviously, we are just starting right now. Outside of discovering an entirely new earth, what is your hope for this program? And for the, not just for the chairs themselves, but the graduates and research students that you'll be working with. Well, I'll start narrow and then I'll get broader. So I hope from my program, I'll help inspire a generation of people to go into space science

and ultimately into defense wherever we need it because we have a lot of overlap, looking up, looking down, miniature molecular sensors and technology. So I hope we can attract people and send them off. I hope we will bring the best in the U.S. to what Canada has already started. That is the innovation, the big thinking, the startups. So that's where I hope this whole program is going, to be like a self-sustaining engine. We are going to leave it there. I want to welcome you back home. And I'm looking forward as you get a couple months into your new positions, maybe we can have you all come back and

join us in studio and we'll see how it's all going. But thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Thank you so much. Thank you. Do you think Canada's doing enough to keep talent here at home? And would you be willing to relocate to the state for work opportunities? Let us know in the comments or send us an email to rundown at tbO.org. Until then, I'll see you tomorrow. You're not imagining it. Historically, women's health has been under-researched and underfunded. Did you know it took until the 90s for ADHD girls to be studied? And it can take decades to be diagnosed with endometriosis. How did we get here? The season of mistreated, we're exploring that and more. And speaking to those working on solutions,

I'm Nan Kiwanuka. Join us for new season of mistreated on October 1st. Watch Thursdays at 8.30, PM on TVO, listen to the podcast or stream us anytime.