The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - Could Alcohol Be the New Tobacco?

Episode Date: February 7, 2025

Why are Gen Z and millennials drinking less alcohol than their parents did? And how has the Non-Alcoholic industry changed over the years? We gather a panel of experts to look at the recent decline in drinking and what we can learn from it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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That's this season on Queries in Good Faith, a TVO original podcast. Follow and listen wherever you get your podcasts. While it may seem counterintuitive to think of young people drinking less alcohol than their parents did at their age, the numbers seem to indicate that, yes, members of Generation Z are opting for a more sober lifestyle. And with the rise of non-alcoholic options such as mocktails and zero alcohol beer, are we seeing a cultural shift at all ages away from booze? Let's find out. We're going to start in St. Catharines, Ontario with Dan Malek.

He is chair of the Department of Health Sciences and director of the Centre for Canadian Studies at Brock University. And with us here in the studio, David Soberman, professor of marketing and the Canadian National Chair of Strategic Marketing at the U of T's Rotman School of Management. He's also a former marketing manager at Molson Coors. Gail Lynch is here, owner of Zero Cocktail Bar in the Cabbage Town neighborhood of Toronto. Zero Cocktail Bar, tasting room and bottle shop.

I can't wait to go there. And Samantha Wells is here, senior scientist and co-director of the Institute for Mental Health Policy Research at CAMH, also a professor at the Dow Atlanta School of Public Health and the Department of Psychiatry at the U of T. And it's great to have you three here in our studio.

Dan Malek, you are going to be so sorry in a minute that you didn't come to our studio today, but I understand you're a little bit under the weather, but we will let the suspense linger as to why I'm saying that. Let's just, Sheldon, can you bring this graphic up, please? We're going to just do a little fact file on who's drinking booze in Canada these days. From the years 2008 to 2023, there was actually a 12% decrease in Canadians per capita drinking.

And the biggest decrease was among, as we suggested off the top, Gen Z or Zed. Overall, the latest data show that men drink more than women, not a big surprise there. Age 18 to 22 is drinking less than any other group. People with the highest household incomes are drinking more. And people in rural areas are drinking more on average than people in cities.

Okay, let's dive in. Dan Malek, why are we seeing a decline in the alcohol consumption? Wow. We'll start right off the bat. I'm sure it's a very complicated story. The evidence suggests actually that Gen Z is not drinking, is not not drinking more, if you know what I mean. So if you look at the data from 2023 there was an Ipsos poll where actually Millennials there were more abstainers among the

Millennial group than among Gen Z, but they're drinking less, they're more often drinking less, if you understand what I mean, they're more often drinking less, if you understand what I mean, like one or two drinks. They're more often drinking less, okay, I think I got you. As opposed, but they're drinking, but they're drinking less. And there's some correlations between things like, as you noted at the beginning, income,

and we've got this whole concern about the generation set, not being able to afford homes and things like that. And at the same time, this is kind of a risk-averse generation, right? So there's this whole idea of the risk paradox where generation Z is more concerned about things like, you know, they're not having as much sex, they're not drinking as much, but they're quite willing to give away their data, right? So there is like an interesting shift in risk perception and if you have a lot of information about the dangers of drinking that is being pushed out by a lot of some researchers, then it's easy to say, well that's kind of risky, I'm not going to do it. Okay, let me get some feedback from Samantha here in the studio. In your view, why are younger people drinking less of risky, I'm not going to do it. Okay, let me get some feedback from Samantha here in the studio.

In your view, why are younger people drinking less? Well, I think there are a number of theories floating around, and I think it's... I don't think there's a single answer. I think it's complex, as Dan said. Multiple factors, and I would say that one thing that I think is really important in young people is personal choice. You know, they're, they are, and they are thinking about their health and they're becoming more knowledgeable about the effects of alcohol on both acute and long-term harms. So they are, they're more knowledgeable about, about

these factors and that in terms of personal choice, it's becoming more acceptable in their social environment among their peers and so on to remain sober. Let me pick up on that. To not drink alcohol. Right. Because David, and I'll certainly back in our day, you know, you were kind of ostracized if you went to a party and you didn't drink alcohol. No longer the case? Well I think the social acceptability of not drinking now is much higher than it used to be. As you said, you'd almost be chastised or made fun of if you decided not to drink.

And I think it took a while before even as a designated driver, you could sort of turn down a drink. That ship probably sailed about 20 years ago. But now, you'll often have a table full of younger people, obviously all of age because we're talking about licensed establishments, and you may have half the table that doesn't order an alcoholic drink and nobody even bats an eyelash and that's a big change from where we were even five years ago. Well we've got somebody here, this is your business, I've left you for the end on purpose here. You own a

non-alcoholic bar. Correct. Why did you set that up? I don't drink alcohol. Let's start there. And I haven't for the past 15 years. I'm from the beautiful island of Barbados where rum is king. I love it. Didn't like the feeling. So for me, this was an opportunity to say, let me do something that I really like,

which is crafting cocktails in an environment that creates equity for everybody, right? You can have your beautiful Negroni or a Vermouth with alcohol, and I can have mine without alcohol, and it's still beautiful. What made you think, that's your choice though, what made you think anybody else in this alcohol omnis- you know, it's omnipresent. What made you think anybody else would be interested in this? Because when I stopped drinking alcohol, it was about three to five of us.

We knew that we needed to stop. So I'm from that era, almost 60, where we were really heavily drinking. We partied. And partied for us was dancing and consuming alcohol. We were able to say, let us only party by dancing and not consuming alcohol. it we felt awful The next few days, right? So there were so many of us that wanted to stop some of us did and some didn't

And now I see those people that age category coming in they're able to purchase Saying hey, I need to cut back not I want to stop. I just need to cut back. Gail, you have brought some product. Now I must confess, I've never seen this before, but this is called Roots Divino. Correct. Aperitif Rosso. Yes. Roots, non-alcoholic.

And I look at the back, Tina, you want to get a shot of that? I look at the back, fat, zero percent. Trans fats, zero percent. Fiber, zero percent. Sodium, zero percent. Potassium, zero. Calcium, zero. Iron, zero percent. Fiber, zero percent. Sodium, zero percent. Potassium, zero. Calcium, zero. Iron, zero.

Okay, there's some sugar. Six percent sugar. Dan, this is where you lose out. Because we have product here. Everybody, we're gonna try this. This is non-alcoholic. Vermouth. Vermouth.

Yeah. Okay, chin chin.ic. Vermouth. Vermouth, okay. Cheers. Cheers. Cheers. Let's see how this goes here. First the smell. Oh sorry, smell first, right. Absolutely.

So think about a big ice and we can sit, armchair, cross the legs if you like and have a beautiful experience. I gotta tell ya, that is lovely. That is really good. David, what do you think? I think it's actually very, very tasty, and I think that's one of the big changes that we've seen in these products.

I think five, 10 years ago, if you had something that was sort of positioned as a non-alcohol spirit, or a non-alcohol beer, it didn't taste very good. And now you can see the technology and the understanding that we have to produce products that deliver has gone up a lot. Sam, what do you think? I agree. And I think it's fabulous to have non-alcoholic options that people can be comfortable going out and having a beverage that doesn't

contain alcohol. I think it's a fabulous health choice for so many people. I agree, we were talking earlier about social pressure and that feeling where for someone who chooses not to drink, 20 years ago it would be really difficult to say no. Or pretend you're drinking alcohol, you know, when you're not. And now we have all of these wonderful choices and I think it's fantastic. Now this isn't a pair of teeth, but of course there's zero alcohol beer that's out now. And Heineken has, we got an ad here, This is a little snippet of a video, part of an ad for Heineken's 0% beer from a few years ago. Sheldon, roll it if you would.

["Satisface All"] You know what it's like Satisface all When you believe your thing But you don't understand the day goes by. Superstition ain't the way. No, no, no, no. Okay, first of all, great tune, right?

Great song. Selling a particular lifestyle. Dan, what does this, I mean, what does this portend for you when you see non-alcoholic beer sold in this way? Well, it's, there's a market for it that the brewers have identified. I mean, we see things like Guinness Zero, Heineken Zero. There's a whole bunch of mainstream beers

that have now introduced Zero. And as a few other people have noted already it's definitely, there's the technology available. It's not as bad as it used to be. I am a big fan actually of non-alcoholic beer. I'm fascinated with the technology. But then there's also this notion that it is breaking the stigma, I guess there's no song stigma so superstition was a better song for that, of not drinking.

Whether that actually works, I mean, I know people in the non-alcoholic community who are concerned still when they say they don't drink, the people are like, why don't you drink? And my response when someone says they don't drink, it's like, okay, right? But it is still a stigma that is being reduced, but that at least allows people to kind of either blend in, right,

which may not help reduce stigma, or also what a lot of people are doing now is cycling between alcoholic and non-alcoholic, right, and that is another option. I've been in a situation where I've been at a bar and I forgot I was drinking non-alcoholic beer. It's like, oh wait, this is a non-alcoholic from Toronto, a brewery there. So it does, it allows that, it tries to break that stigma, but when you have something that is trying to mask as an alcoholic beer, I wonder if the stigma is just being hidden as opposed to being addressed. Well, let me ask

Gail about that. Do you notice in your place that there is less stigma among increasing numbers of people for shunning alcohol. Absolutely. Absolutely less. So is there stigma? I can see it. Obviously, sometimes you may have a gentleman with a group of other men, and they may give him a little bit of ribbing.

And I've actually encountered that, and I allowed all of them to taste that product, and they immediately, wow, that's amazing. And that ribbon stunk. But you know, the most beautiful thing and why I think that that is much less is that throughout, let's say November through January, I keep getting folks who come in and say, I'm getting something for my friend.

I'm going to a party and I know there are some there who don't drink. I'm getting something for my friend. I'm going to a party, and I know there are some there who don't drink. I'm getting something for my family. And that has been the most beautiful thing. And that is what let me know, oh, that stigma is moving away. And we're talking about people mid-20s all the way up to maybe the 50s. Just out of curiosity, I'm sorry, not a big drinker, so I don't know. What would a regular bottle of this cost and what is a non-alcoholic bottle of this cost? Same cost.

Really, same? And so we know that ethanol is the cheapest part of this product, right? When you're making alcohol vermouth, the ethanol, gin, a whiskey, the ethanol is the cheapest thing, or the least expensive. And so sage, wormwood, Guinessian, those are beautiful products.

There's a process to make them into this beautiful rasa. Right, and so of course those things cost money. So the price is still the same because the quality is the same. Actually this quality is better because I've not introduced ethanol, which is the leading cause of many cancers. Okay, well I was just going to pick up on that actually.

David, I read something the other day that said, every time you have a drink of alcohol, you're taking five minutes off your life expectancy, which is a pretty stark way to put it. Do you see increasing evidence that people's attitudes towards alcohol consumption are changing? Absolutely, I think we see a lot more communication now in the media about the risks of alcohol about how it's bad for your health and I also think to the earlier discussion we had about this

generation being perhaps less risk-taking they attend to that information they're watching this they're observing this and they're observing this, and they're thinking, I don't want to be unhealthy. And I mean, there's a lot of concerns now with people about their health, about their boss, BMI, about things like smoking. What's BMI? Body mass index.

Body mass index, it's a way of describing your sort of health weight to height in some way. And so I think all of these things are contributing to a segment growing up now in that let's say young adult group who are saying you know I'm really concerned about this and these things that you know maybe the previous generations do this but I'm going to be different and that's okay. Let's, apropos of that, Sheldon, I'm in the middle of page three here.

The US Surgeon General in January issued a warning on alcohol. And here is part of what that office says. The direct link between alcohol use and cancer was first established in the late 1980s. And evidence for this link has strengthened over time. This body of scientific evidence demonstrates a causal relationship between alcohol use and increased risk for at least seven different types of cancer.

The more alcohol consumed, the greater the risk of cancer. For certain cancers like breast, mouth, and throat cancers, evidence shows that this risk may start to increase around one or fewer drinks per day. Sam, what do we make of this warning? Well it certainly resonates with the work that we do at CAMH, the Center for Addiction and Mental Health. We have a team of scientists, many of whom are experts in studying alcohol and health and have been doing so for many years. And this is consistent with all of the evidence that we have at CAMH right now.

The science has been evolving over the years and I would say that the latest evidence all shows that even the smallest amounts of alcohol can be harmful to one's health. Now, Dan, I do recall when the first warnings came out, I think it was from Health Canada saying that two drinks per week ought to be the maximum you have. And of course, there were lots of men and women in the street interviews on the local news saying, they've got to be kidding.

No one's going to be able to do that. OK, do you think warnings like this have an effect? I think warnings like this put, I would say put a thumb on the scale. There is a concern, so cancer is one of those, I don't want to underplay cancer, but there's a thing called availability bias where you hear a lot about one kind of illness, so cancer. For example, we have everything from Movember to pink ribbon campaigns. And so cancer is a big issue in people's minds, but it's actually not the biggest killer of Canadians, premature killer, that's cardiovascular

disease. And in spite of things like Samantha saying that the evidence, the science has evolved, it has, but there's also a group of scientists who are trying to erase evidence of the protective effects of alcohol in cardiovascular disease, which will kill people faster but doesn't have that amount of attention, right? If you say you're going to die of a heart attack, people may say, okay, okay, but if you say cancer, they go, whoa, cancer, wait a minute, and the cancers that are connected to alcohol are not the biggest killer, the biggest killing cancers, some of them are highly treatable, so it does kind of skew perception, and I don't want to

underplay the health effects of alcohol, but this tendency to jump on cancer instead of like looking at the full risk and benefit I guess no untouchable benefits of alcohol is Does distort the story and in fact there was an excellent report from the National Academies of Science Engineering and Medicine in December That did a really good job of providing a balanced discussion because it said, well, there is an increased risk of cancer. And when we talk about increased risk, we're talking about relative risk. So you might have a 5% more risk, but you have a lower risk to start, for example.

But it also says there are other factors that go into your risk of cancer, so colorectal and say what you eat, and breast cancer and other things as well. So saying alcohol causes cancer is a little distorting and it kind of plays into a bit of a panic around cancer. And believe it or not, I get you, I get you. But Gail, how often do you hear in your establishment,

I'm here because I am concerned about the health risks associated with alcohol? Oh, absolutely. Folks are, I would say in the establishment, I'm here because I am concerned about the health risks associated with alcohol. Oh, absolutely. Folks are, I would say, and the data bears it out as well, I would say about 75% of my customers are saying I'm mindfully drinking. I don't want to drink as much. I get the nurses that come in and talk about, you know,

my ritual of coming home and winding down with a glass of wine and it becomes a bottle and two, and 10 years later I've realized, oh, I should slow down. I've got a problem. Right? So we see it. My average sale is around, I shouldn't say this, is around $60 because that person is saying I want a beautiful experience and I realize I've been doing too much.

It's just simply that. And this, again, it really comes down to choice and equity. Today, I'm going to have my alcohol wine. Tomorrow, I'm going to have my non-alcoholic wine. And I'm mindfully making a choice and the right choice for myself. I wonder, Sam, if they're drinking less alcohol, are they searching for that

buzz they used to get from alcohol with something else? Are they having marijuana? Are they smoking? I don't know, you tell me. So the science isn't really in on whether there's a substitution effect, which is what we call it, but, and I think it's complex, you know, and I think there are some people who like the effects of alcohol and may not like the effects of cannabis. And so that it's not a natural sort of substitution.

The other thing I wanted to add is, you know, I think that one of the problems when we think about substance use is we think that people are just using one substance. Many times they're using alcohol and cannabis together. And so we're not necessarily dropping one substance and taking up another. So I think it's quite complex and certainly would not recommend that someone stop using alcohol and start using cannabis, you know, because we know there are also health harms associated with cannabis as well. So we have to be very careful. In which case, David, we've had warning labels on tobacco for a very long time. Should we have them on alcohol?

In my view, I think warning labels are probably a good idea because I think any time a person picks up something they should we should make every effort that we can to make them aware of the risks. So my view would be yes, is that going to be enough to cure the alcohol problem and by alcohol problem I mean sort of overuse of alcohol, which obviously with certain people is an issue. Probably not.

But I think it's important to make people aware so that they can make informed choices. Dan, your take on warning labels on alcohol? Well, there's not a lot of evidence that it works. There was a board of study in the Yukon where people put really big yellow frightening labels on alcohol in the liquor store and numbers went down but that was canceled when the liquor industry said that's our product. But the researchers who did that sort of took that study and said look there's there's evidence because purchases of of alcohol in the liquor store went down that doesn't mean drinking went down. But at the same time there's it

there's really I use the term mixed evidence about the effectiveness of warning labels and I would argue that if there are benefits and the benefits are harder to track sometimes the epidemiology may not follow it well. Then maybe there should be information labels, but we won't see that. And the problem with, another problem with warning labels is where do you stop, right?

So if everything has a warning label because there's risks on most things, then eventually it just becomes, people just ignore that. Sam, having said that, we in media, I think, tend to say one, two, trend. And you tell me if we can do that here. Are we really in an inexorable... Are we moving in an inexorable direction where people are going to drink less going forward? It's a really good question. And I will say that I will say that I was studying the numbers last night,

the KMH especially data from the Ontario Student and Drug Use and Health Survey, so the AUSTAS for that, so that's grades 7 to 12, and then also the KMH Monitor, and those surveys have been running since 1977. So we have lots of data and I'd encourage people to have a look at those numbers and it's not a straight line, you know, sorry, down. So it's kind of goes up and down, you know, and so there's nothing to say that trends may go upward again and especially, you know, we know the, you showed that advertisement with alcohol,

non-alcoholic beverages, you know, the alcohol industry is very clever and they want to sell their product, right? In whatever way they can. And as we saw with the tobacco industry, we saw a decline in tobacco use over a year, year over year, year over year, and then what did we see? A new product.

You know, e-cigarettes came out, and then we see this new generation of young people vaping like crazy. Vaping like crazy. So, I mean, I would not be surprised to see something like that happen in the alcohol industry. Trends change, and substance use goes up. And I think the big message here is, we should never sort of let down our guard.

We need to always ensure we have policies in place that protect, especially our young people. So that would be, yeah. Last 30 seconds to Gail. How's business? Business is fantastic. But I want to give you data, right? So Canadian data, percent is changed

to the question you just asked. Montreal, $25.2 million in sales, non-out products. That's a 10.8% change over last year. We're talking Montreal. Meaning increase. Increase. Toronto, 13.7%. Vancouver, 28.8%. Quebec, 9.4%. And Ottawa Vancouver 28.8%, Quebec 9.4% and Ottawa 17.8%.

And I would tell you that I don't think Quebec City has a non-alcoholic bottle shot and most of these cities have one non-alcoholic bottle shot. The data speak. The data speaks. They always do. Shall we do one more for the road everybody? Thanks, Mr. Director. You want to get a wide shot of everybody up here? Sorry, Dan.

But I need some more in mine. You need some more. You drank all yours already? Absolutely. All right, I'll give you some more. In the meantime, let's thank Dan Malik for being there for us. On the line from St. Catharines, David Soberman, Gail Lynch, Samantha Wells. OK, where's your glass?

Here we go. One more shot for you. Thank you. Well done, everybody. Cheers. Here we go. Cheers. Cheers. Cheers. Take care. Thank you. Well done everybody. Cheers. Here we go. Cheers. Take care everybody.

Cheers. Take care. See you Dan. Cheers. Bye.