The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - Did the Ontario Leaders' Debates Move the Needle With Voters?

Episode Date: February 21, 2025

Ontarians have now gotten to see the leaders face off on the debate stage twice - in North Bay on Valentine's Day, and in Toronto on Family Day. PC leader Doug Ford, NDP leader Marit Stiles, Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie, and Green leader Mike Schreiner took questions on everything from health care to what they like to do in their spare time. Were Ontarians watching - and have the debates changed the race? To discuss, Steve Paikin is joined by Erin Kelly, CEO and co-founder of Advanced Symbolics Inc., who's been tracking this election using Polly, the AI pollster.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Renew your 2.0 TVO with more thought-provoking documentaries, insightful current affairs coverage, and fun programs and learning experiences for kids. Regular contributions from people like you help us make a difference in the lives of Ontarians of all ages. Visit tvo.me slash 2025 donate to renew your support or make a first-time donation and continue to discover your 2.0 TVO. Ontario's Capital City on Family Day. PC leader Doug Ford, NDP leader Marge Styles, Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie, and Green leader Mike Schreiner took questions on everything from healthcare to what they like to do in their spare time. Were Ontarians watching and have the debates changed the race? To discuss, we welcome back Erin Kelly, CEO and co-founder of Advanced Symbolics Inc, who's been tracking this election using Pauly, her AI pollster. Welcome to the program, Erin. Great to be here. Alright, get us started. Did Ontarians watch the Family Day Debate? They did. Yeah, we definitely saw people tuning in, which is good. I would say though that the people

who tuned in are people who are already very engaged on the election. All right. I was going to ask, I'm curious, did the debates break through with voters less engaged in politics at all, or it's the same sort of crop of viewers? Well, we did. So we looked at the people who watched the debate and then we looked at people who did not watch the debate, we did see some, if you call it memes pop through, for example, Doug Ford saying that he promised not to build on the green belt, but then he did, and then he apologized. That definitely made the water cooler the next day, because we saw people who said they didn't watch the debate got that from the debate, and a few other things

like his story about his first job definitely made the water cooler the next day. So we had a few of those things. But for the most part, the people who watched the debate were people who were already engaged. All right. So you talked about some key moments in terms of conversation points. I'm curious, what were the other moments that got people talking the day after? Well, it's really interesting. A lot of people, we haven't seen this in Pauley before where there was a whole discussion about the body language of the presenters, of the leaders, which was really interesting. Other key moments are probably what you've heard from friends and family, people where the spa broke through, the health care.

And then people did like the personal anecdotes and actually talked a lot about those moments in the debate. I want to pick up on the point about the posture, the body posture. Tell me a little bit, what was Polly picking up on that? Yeah, this was really interesting. Like I said, we haven't seen this before. Usually people stick to the issues,

but this time body language really seemed to poke through. People remarked first that they felt that Bonnie Cromby looked anxious, intense, like a little bit like she was fighting for her life in this one. With Mr. Ford, people found him, it's interesting. Usually people find him very people found him, it's interesting, usually people find him very soft spoken and whatever, but this time people found him sometimes dismissive and untrustworthy. The person who came out the best, the two people who came out the best were Marit Stiles and Mike Schreiner, with Mike Schreiner being number one, people found him very clear, very well spoken. And a lot of people said they wish that he was maybe leading one of the other parties. It was kind of interesting.

Very interesting. All right. You had mentioned winners and losers, but I want to get back to Doug Ford. You'd mentioned some of the other sort of issues that we knew were going to come up with the green belt with the spa. But I want to talk about Doug Ford's health care record. Were there any hits and did they land from the other leaders? There were definitely hits and a lot of people talked about it.

The challenge here is that the people who are upset with Doug Ford over health care have already cast their ballot, if you will. I don't mean that literally they went and did it early, but they've made their decision. And so hammering that home did not get any new converts. The people for whom this election is about the economy or about tariffs, they're upset about healthcare, but it's a trade off, right?

And right now they're more concerned about the economy and jobs. And so they're, like I I said those people did not convert the people who are upset about health care were already not gonna vote for mr. Ford all right you had mentioned that Polly had picked up that sort of anxious energy of Bonnie Cromby on the stage this is what Polly said Bonnie Cromby has a challenge as well in terms of distinguishing herself from Doug Ford is she succeeding in that? She is not succeeding at that.

So a number of issues. Let's take health care, for example, because it is a major issue. Mr. Ford kept bringing it back to the economy and saying, well, if we don't have a good economy, we can't have health care. That was a great opportunity for Ms. Cromby to say, well, the economy's been fine, so why don't we have good health care?

I mean, it's not like we've been in a depression for the last few years, and yet we don't have access to health care. The other issue I think she could have distinguished herself on, because a lot of people brought this up in the conversation, was that Mr. Ford is treating health care like just an inconvenient expense item, when in fact, when you invest in health care, it's good for the economy. Not only because healthy people are good for the economy, you want to have a healthy workforce, both mentally and physically, but also because when you invest in new technologies and health care, and Canada is a leader in this, but unfortunately, our governments aren't investing

in new technologies and new ways of doing things. So Bonnie Cromby could have taken this not just to say I'm gonna get you a doctor in four years because they're all saying that. But to say look, let's do it differently so that we benefit both health care and the economy at the same time. Thereby addressing the issue for those people for whom this election is about the economy. All right. I want to talk about another leader, Mauret Stiles. She has a different challenge. Obviously, Bonnie Crombie is in the provincial world, maybe a new face, but Mauret Stiles has had a couple years as the official opposition leader. But according to Polly, people who know Mauret Stiles like her, we know that, but she's not reaching new people.

Have you seen signs that her debate performance, like you mentioned, she was potentially one of the winners coming out of that, has that helped her break out to new people. Have you seen signs that her debate performance, like you mentioned, she was potentially one of the winners coming out of that, has that helped her break out to new people? No. Now what Marth Stiles is doing very well, aside from being very likeable, is that she has good vote efficiency. So from a popular vote point of view, she is less well known than Bonnie Crombie. So she's got about half of the recognition, but she's got about the same number of seats that she's leading in because she's got that vote efficiency. She's reaching out beyond the GTA in Toronto, sorry, Ottawa and the GTA, unlike Bonnie Crombie. So she's doing that well. But again, it's the other challenge that Marit Stiles has now is that people are

starting to say, should we vote strategically? And I think that's a big risk for Marit Stiles because that means potentially bleeding some votes over to Bonnie Cromby if people think that she's better able to beat Doug Ford. All right. So I think that's a big risk for Marit Stiles. Because that means potentially bleeding some votes over to Bonnie Crombie if people think that she's better able to beat Doug Ford. Time is ticking.

There's only seven days left before people cast their final ballots. There's not much time for a lot of these leaders to make some impressions. I'm curious overall, did the debates do anything to change sort of that campaign narrative that we have and can we expect some surprises? I know you know Pauli is going to be working overtime here but what can we expect as we keep going from this from the from the debate as we move into the auction? Well Doug Ford is well ahead so I think what we can expect is a another Doug Ford majority government. The debate did not change minds. It did not significantly change that trajectory. So the

only thing, there's very little time left now and no other debates. So the ability to distinguish yourself. So again, Bonnie Cromby has to get outside of the GTA in Ottawa, which is where the majority of her support is. Getting more people angry about the spa just gets her a bigger margin in the areas where she's already leading. So she needs to get outside of those two core cities. And, and Maureen Stiles just needs to build her profile. And the way to do that is to be different. And right now they're not different enough. And Marit Stiles just needs to build her profile. And the way to do that is to be different. And right now they're not different enough.

I am curious, you know, we've talked about those three leaders. Schreiner, what does he got to do? You know, he's the winner out of there, potentially a third seat. That will be up for debate. But what's he got to do? Anything? Well, for this election, I think he's just building his profile. And I know he's been doing that for a long time.

But this isn't the election where people are going to take a risk on a new party that they know is very unlikely to form government. And so he's just looking at one or two seats, keeping what he's got, and he's leading in his own seat. So I really don't see this being a breakaway year for Mike Schreiner, unfortunately. All right, Erin, we are going to leave it there. Look forward to seeing you on election night as well.

Thank you so much for your insights and for Polly's insights. Great, thanks, Jan.