The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - Has Canada Overlooked Mexico as an Ally?

Episode Date: December 11, 2024

Canada-Mexico relations hit a rough patch earlier this year following the Canadian ambassador's criticism of Mexico's judicial reforms. Hopes for a rapprochement were raised following the election of Mexico's first female president Claudia Sheinbaum. Those hopes were dashed, however, when Donald Trump announced his intention to impose a 25% tariff on all products coming from Mexico and Canada, leading to strong reactions in both countries. Will Trump's threat strain 85 years of Canadian-Mexican relations? Host Steve Paikin asks: In Mexico City: José Luis Granados Ceja, Journalist and co-host of the Soberanía Mexican Politics podcast; Solange Márquez Espinoza, Geopolitical analyst and co-author of "Mexico & Canada: Two Nations in a North American Partnership" Laura MacDonald, the Chancellor's Professor of Political Science at Carleton University. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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We follow one story from the boardroom to the courtroom. And seek to understand what happens when beliefs collide. Where does freedom of religion end and freedom from discrimination begin? That's this season on Queries in Good Faith, a TVO original podcast. Follow and listen wherever you get your podcasts. Canada-Mexico relations hit a rough patch earlier this year following the Canadian ambassador's criticism of Mexico's judicial reforms. Hopes for a rapprochement were raised

following the election of Mexico's first female president, Claudia Scheinbaum. Those hopes, however, were dashed when Donald Trump announced his intention to impose a 25% tariff on all products coming from Mexico and Canada, leading to strong reactions in both countries. Will Trump's threat strain 85 years

of Canadian-Mexican relations? For more on this, we're joined by, in Mexico City, Jose Luis Granados-Saya, a journalist and co-host of the Soberania Mexican Politics podcast. And with us here in studio Solange Marquez-Espinoza, geopolitical analyst and co-author of Mexico and Canada, Two Nations in a North American Partnership.

And Laura McDonald, she is the Chancellor's Professor of Political Science at Carleton University. And we are delighted to welcome you two here in our studio, Jose Luis in Mexico City. Great to have you on the line as well. And I wanna start with you, because as we suggested in the intro, Canada and Mexico have had pretty good relations

for going on more than 80 years now, until August, when the former Mexican President, Lopez Obrador, halted relations between our two countries. Give us the background. What happened there? Sure, absolutely. So I think the first thing that we have to keep in mind when we're thinking about this recent differences that

have existed between Mexico and Canada as of late, that one of the key pillars of the political process known here domestically as the fourth transformation of Mexico, which started in 2018 with the election of López Obrador, is the defense of sovereignty. The defense of sovereignty has always been really, really important to Mexicans in general, having the United States as a neighbor makes it kind of natural that that would be the case. And so very jealously, the Mexican population and the Mexican government guards that. And so these comments made by

the US ambassador and the Canadian ambassador did not rub the government well. They were very offended that these comments were perceived as interference in Mexican sovereignty, interference in the domestic affairs. This judicial reform was one of the major issues in the election. This was something that was very important for the ruling Morena party, which was reelected in the last election here over the summer. And obviously with Claudia Scheinbaum, it's very much a continuity of these kinds of

priorities for the Mexican government, the defense of Sovereignty, which is basically to say Mexico is going to pursue its own path. I think if we had to define the fourth transformation, as it's called here, it would be a post-neoliberal period. And so this reform was very much in line with that priority of the government to try to imagine a different kind of political economy for Mexico.

And so that's why we saw López Obrador mention this pause. But really right now, as you well mentioned, the test now is what's going to happen with Donald Trump, because unfortunately we see... Well, hold off on that. Hold off. We're not ready to get to Donald yet. We need a little more background in place first.

Sure. Solange, let me go to you on that. Mexico made history. Claudia Scheinbaum, first female president. Is the expectation under her leadership that she will continue the approach and the patterns of her predecessor, or is this a chance for a new chapter in Mexican-Canadian relations? Well, what I have seen in the first months of Claudia Shea Monas president is a continuity.

She in fact started her campaign telling the people that she wanted the continuation of the Ford transformation which is the movement she, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador started in Mexico in 2018. So she's a continuation, she's looking for a continuation inside and in foreign affairs. So we will see a similar approach in the Mexico-Canada relationship and a similar approach to the Mexico-USada relationship and a similar approach to the Mexico-U.S. relationship. We will see some changes and we will talk later about those changes, especially with the U.S. relationship. But as for Canada, as we have seen in the first months, as I said, we will see similar approach, continuation of the

politics. Let me show everybody a picture. Here is the Prime Minister of Canada along with the new president of Mexico. They are shaking hands. They are both smiling. This is at the G20 in Brazil last month. Laura, did they patch things up? Well I think they had a friendly conversation and that's all to the good. That's what we need in this moment is a little bit stepping down I think from some of the rhetoric that accompanied the surprise announcement of the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. And so they had a friendly discussion. I think Shen Bound tried to clarify some matters with Trudeau.

I think he was kind of following the rhetoric of the provincial premiers, thinking that this is a disaster, these tariffs, and we have to gang up on Mexico. So I think she clarified that Mexico is not currently exporting Chinese-made vehicles to the United States or anywhere else. It has trade with China as other countries do but it's not exporting those vehicles and I think she expressed a little bit of preoccupation about some of the rhetoric that was being thrown around

especially by Doug Ford. He made comments something like, this is the most insulting thing I've ever heard that Trump should mention Mexico and Canada in the same breath, that we have the same problems. Which is a very hurtful thing to say to Mexico that you can't even compare the two countries because we're so much better than Mexico. So I think she was trying to clarify that situation. I'm not sure he said we're better than Mexico. So I think she was trying to clarify. I'm not sure he said we're better than Mexico, but that was the implication. I well, he thinks he has a special relationship with the United States because he's had an office in Chicago, obviously with his family business.

Yeah. And he described Trump's comments. And I guess Jose Luis, I'll go back to you on this. He described Trump's comments about 25% tariffs on Canada, which obviously includes Ontario, as a dagger to the heart. So that's the Ontario Premier. But I want to get your view on how the president of Mexico responded when she learned about

this threat for 25% tariffs from the United States. Yeah, it's actually been really interesting to see the two reactions, one from Mexico and one from Canada. And in the case of Mexico, what Claudia said was write a strongly worded letter, basically outlining her position, saying here's why I think your position is incorrect, here's why we've actually done a lot

to control the movement of migrants and drugs into the United States from Mexico, I think you've made some mistakes here, but also said if you try to impose these kinds of tariffs on Mexico, then there will be reciprocity. There will be tariffs in kind. And it looks like that letter worked well.

You know, there were some warnings there that will they infamously sexist Trump respond well to a woman criticizing him? Well, it looks like it played out well. And obviously we have the case of Canada as well, which went through a different route to fly down to Mar-a-Lago and meet in person. of Canada as well, which went through a different route to fly down to Mar-a-Lago and meet in person. And if you were to ask me, my perspective, I think the Mexico strategy so far is working out well for Mexico in the sense that this kind of moved on the conversation.

Once again, it was asked at today's morning press conference and she said, we want to work with this government. We're going to work with his transition team. We want to resolve these issues because ultimately, if we actually do go down this path, we're going to destroy this economic union that we have in North America and that's not going to serve any country, neither Canada, United States or Mexico. Solange, you want to pick up on that? Yeah, I understand what José Luis is trying to explain. However, I most disagree on the

strategy of Mexico is working. Unfortunately, I don't think that it is working. We have seen this and we will see these threats from Trump's coming administration. He is not even president and he's starting to set the stage for what is coming in the coming years. So what we saw in the first stage is that this threat of 25% tariff. Mexico responded with this letter and now we saw a couple of days ago another threat telling that Mexico and Canada should become states of the United States, part of the United States. So it is not working.

I cannot say that Canadian strategy is working either because he, Justin Trudeau presented at Mar-a-Lago, personally face-to-face meeting and he didn't have even a pardon or a retreat on the argument of the 25% tariff. Mexico presented a letter and we haven't seen any changes. What we have seen is an argument from the Mexico in two ways and I think Mexico's strategy is kind of bipolar because in one way we presented a letter, very strong letter, but it is for domestic issues. It is domestic policy. And in another way you can see Claudia Schoenbaum declarations about taking migrants into Mexico,

helping them in Mexico, starting to open the doors for them. So what you are saying is two different messages, one for domestic policy and the other one for Trump administration, coming administration saying, well well maybe we can talk about migration issues later. You want to weigh in on that? Well I just think we should remember that Mexico already did a lot to address Trump's concerns under the first Trump administration. I mean they adopted this policy of remain in Mexico where the migrants have to stay in Mexico. And also they have a policy of shipping the migrants

regularly down to the southern border. They're assuming enormous costs and problems keeping migrants in Mexico. So they've already done a lot. I think they could do more on drug trafficking, as could the US on weapons smuggling. Like there's more we can all do to address these issues but it's not like neither Mexico nor Canada has has done anything in the past and

certainly we had to very much face these issues under the first Trump administration. I want to circle back to the reaction that came in particularly from two premiers we talked about Doug Ford of Ontario already. But Danielle Smith in Alberta also put forward the notion that perhaps Canada ought to look to cutting out Mexico from a continent-wide agreement. And obviously, this elicited some strong responses. And here's Andrew Coyne, the columnist in the Globe and Mail,

writing about this. Sheldon, put this up if you would. And here's what Coyne, the columnist in the Globe and Mail, writing about this. Sheldon put this up if you would, and here's what he had to say. This is a truly terrible idea, meaning cutting Mexico out. Bilateralizing a trilateral deal means the US becomes the hub and Canada and Mexico the spokes. The only way to have guaranteed access to all three markets

is then to locate your plant in the US. More than that, it allows the US to play us off against each other. I understand the temptation to panic and throw Mexico to the Trumpian wolves, hoping we will be spared, but it is in our national interest to work together with other countries in containing him not to cut sly little side deals. Okay, let me hear all of you on that. José Luis, what's your view on that?

Yeah, I think it very much is driven by panic. There is this sense amongst Canadian politicians that if we throw Mexico under the bus, maybe we'll be okay. But it's worth remembering that in the previous round of negotiations when NAFTA was being renegotiated, actually Trump wanted to kick Canada out. And it was thanks to the insistence of Mexico that it maintained a tripartite deal. And so it's important to remember that this needs to be a united block. I saw a

press conference with Deputy Prime Minister, Christa Freeland, and they asked her directly, you have concerns about Mexico being a backdoor. This is what we keep hearing. Do you have any evidence of that? And unfortunately, she wasn't able to produce any. And so I think a lot of this was actually being driven is one by panic and the other of this rivalry with China. And if that's the case, if that's what politicians are paying attention to, then it actually makes way more sense to maintain a 3D country agreement, because as an economic union, you can actually compete. Mexico on its own, Canada on its own, it's not going to be able to. And so I think much of this is actually driven, oddly enough, by the situation of this rivalry

with the United States, with China, so much so that actually Mexico became the US's number one trade partner as a result of the shifting dynamics in international trade. It's no longer China, it's not Canada, it's actually Mexico. So kicking Mexico out doesn't really seem to be on the agenda for me anyway. So Lange, when you heard the two premiers say, let's kick Mexico out and just have a bilateral agreement with the U.S., how did you react? Yeah, I think it is very unfortunate. And I think it is, unfortunately, it is domestic policy for them too. Mexico and Canada have a very strong relation in terms of trade.

and Canada have a very strong relation in terms of trade. But most importantly, together they present a very strong negotiation point in front of the US. Because otherwise, what happened in 2019, when we started to renegotiate NAFTA and became the CUSMA or USMCA, Mexico and Canada staying together present a very much more stronger position.

Otherwise, it will be very hard for Mexico or for Canada to get some of their important points presented in front of the US. And they are going to twitch their arms and force them to agree on some things that otherwise they might disagree with. So I think it is important to understand what is happening in Canadian politics too, and otherwise it is going to be a very complicated time for the renegotiation in 2026. Laura, I have heard on the QT from national officials that they didn't mind when the

Premier of Ontario and the Premier of Alberta were suggesting that Mexico might get kicked to the curb and we ought to do that. They didn't mind the provincial premiers making that point. Lloyd Axworthy was on this program, the former foreign minister, a couple of weeks ago. And he said, that's a dumb idea. You don't want to be in a one-on-one relationship with the United States. Where do you come down on it? No, I agree with Mr. Axworthy.

I think this is exactly where Trump wants us. That's his instinct, is to divide and conquer, to try to bully his opponents or partners by dividing us and he thinks he can get a better deal bilaterally. So the last thing we should do in my opinion is to to jump on that idea of kicking out Mexico. I don't see where it gets us anywhere. But I just wanted to look back historically a little bit and say that this is the tendency of many Canadian elites and Canadian leaders is to think that we're the best friends of the Americans and we can get a much better deal from them than the Mexicans

can because we know Mexicans are stigmatized in in the United States. So even when we first got our free trade deal with the United States and then it was decided to bring in Mexico, Canada didn't want to do that. They didn't want to have a trilateral deal to start with. They were just kind of forced into that. We were afraid we'd lose our special status. We thought we'd lose our special status. But this is just the way the world economy is going, is the formation of regional trade blocs. And we have to accept that tendency and not think that we do have this cozy special relationship

with the United States. Because, you know, Trump doesn't work that way. It's all transactional. José Luis, now that our two countries, Canada and Mexico, have had this kind of, well, let's call it a bit of a fraught relationship over the last little while. Do you think, particularly now with Donald Trump coming in on the 20th of January, that it has forced us to really re-examine our relationship, having some especially tough

conversations with one another? What do you think? I think the more that we come together, the better. I lived many years in Canada and was very active in the political scene there, but we talked so little about Mexico, even in political circles when I was living there. So the more that we talk about Mexico and the Canada-Mexico relationship and not always relating it to the United States, I actually think can be a really positive thing so that people understand the benefits of investing. You know, Mexico obviously has gone through a very difficult period, especially around drugs and organized crime groups

and things like that. But there's also, I think people who come here see that Mexico is a country that is optimistic, that feels good. I mean, the government has sky high approval ratings. And so if Canadians can have that closeness to Mexico, I think we can not only come together economically as we have since the signing of the free trade agreement, but also culturally, politically learn from each other's experiences. I think there's a lot of things happening in Mexico that I think Canadians would be really excited to learn about what's happening. As a quick aside, I had some friends who came to visit and they were blown away at all the

investments in public infrastructure, affordable transit, all the kinds of things that we want to see happening throughout the world. I'm sure there's many Canadians who want to see it actually happening here in Mexico. And I think in that sense, it would be good for us to have more conversations with each other. Jose Luis, just out of curiosity, we're about, oh, I don't know, a hundred meters south of an LRT, a light rail train line that was supposed to have been opened four years ago at a cost of about half of what it is right now.

Does that kind of thing happen in Mexico City as well? No, actually we've had all the, to the contrary. We've seen three new cable car kind of setups, gondolas built to service poor areas in the south of the country, the Tren Maya was built. So in the period that Lopesorrador was elected was in office and left, all of that, the LRT still hasn't opened, right? So we've seen that its investment in public infrastructure has actually been quite a big

payoff and that helps explain why we do have high approval ratings for the government here. Could you please send Metrolinx's phone number to the people who are building the LRTs down there and maybe get the two of them? No, never mind. But it would be nice to get this one open eventually. Let me ask you this, Solange. There's a lot of America first in the air right now, right? Donald Trump has been running successfully

on an America first platform. Some people think maybe Canada and Mexico should run on a Canada first platform, or Mexico ought to run on a Mexico first platform. Where do you think that would get us? Well, may I just jump in what something Tosoli said? Sorry about that, but I must disagree again. Unfortunately, I don't think Canada should copy the way Mexico has been doing infrastructure.

Unfortunately, Maya train has been had a lot of troubles, not just corruption, but also with environmental issues. A lot of things have been doing in a very bad way. Very quickly, yes, I have to agree with that. Unfortunately, not in a good way. Tren Maya has been created a very huge damage. What does that mean, incidentally? Tren Maya. Maya Tren is, Maya is the region. Okay. The Maya used to live there.

So they created this in a very, very fragile ecosystem. They created this in a very, very fragile ecosystem. So unfortunately, it has created a problem, an environmental problem that will last for decades and it might be irreversible. Okay, one thing I did not think that we do in this discussion is get into transportation policy. Yeah. So we're gonna get us out of that now.

Just to say that. Just as an aside. Just to say that. Okay, so let's talk about Canada first, Mexico first, US first. So we're going to get us out of that now. Just to say that. Just as an aside. Okay. So let's talk about Canada first, Mexico first, US first. What happens if we all pursue our own self-interest to the exclusion of everyone else? Unfortunately, I think it will be very much trouble. Because if we started to talk about just Mexico, just Canada, just the US. It is going to be a narrative.

It is a populist narrative in the three cases that might get them higher approval ratings in domestic policy. But unfortunately, it will create a lot of tension in the renegotiation of the agreement, of the trilateral agreement. What we need is to start thinking again in a North American region.

We need that in order to confront China. If we want really to have a policy that can confront China and other actors, important actors in trading in the world, we need to think about the region. And North America is a very important region in the world, we need to think about the region. And North America is a very important region in the world. It is one of the most important regions, trade and trade regions in the world.

So if we break that out, it is going to be the worst thing for our own country. Well, except that Donald Trump thinks of America first. He campaigned on America first. He won on America first. How do you get the leader of the United States, who's an America first-er, to start thinking continentally? I mean, I think what the Trudeau government did last time around

with the first administration was basically the only recourse we have, which is to rally allies in the United States, like mayors and governors and the private sector and unions, and convey to them the message that they will lose jobs in the United States if they pursue these America first policies and don't think about the essential ties, the value chains that have been constructed over decades between Canada, the US and Mexico. That's not good for the United States, let alone kicking out, you know, 11 million migrants will destroy the US economy. So I think that's the only choice we have is to appeal to people in the United States

who recognize that we have things in common and they need to be pushing Trump. Where, you know, us pushing Trump on our own is not going to be very effective. Jose Luis, your take on everybody out for themselves and what the consequences could be? I think if that happens, unfortunately, Canada is probably the most vulnerable country. Mexico has pursued a diversified strategy, has reached out to different parts of the world. It's investing in ports to serve the Pacific. So even if it's, let's call it the worst case scenario, right? Everybody kind of goes on their own, everybody pursuing their own personal interests. One of the things that I've said is that Mexico has options, right? It's been

investing in its relationships with Latin America. It rescued the community of Latin American and Caribbean states from irrelevance. It's like I said, it's building a massive, massive expansion of the Manzanillo port. And so I think Mexico would be able to find other trade partners. Obviously there would be a lot of impact as well. I'm not trying to pretend like it wouldn't have consequences, but I do think that Canada is far more restrained in that sense of an inability to be able to diversify. Obviously, we know that there are strained relations between Canada and China, for example. So if it starts to become this regional global rivalry, I think Mexico over the long term would be okay.

But still, we have many, many decades now of working together. We should continue to do that because it has been beneficial for all three countries, despite Trump's rhetoric about the trade deficits within the other countries, right? The US benefits from this deal as well. And so I don't think that, I think what the other panel has said here about making sure that they understand the consequences

of pursuing the strategy is probably the smartest move so that they don't actually go down this path because it could be pretty catastrophic for all three. So Longinus, let me put this to you as the person who wrote the book about Mexico and Canada and that relationship. We in this country, I think it's fair to say, have always been so desperate to be America's best friend. 77% of our trading is with them.

Canadians like going to the United States. We like it when Americans come up and spend their more valuable dollars up here. Do you think we have been so focused on the United States and our relationship with them to the exclusion and detriment of our potential relationship with Mexico? Absolutely, absolutely. There are a lot of spaces that are not taking, we are not taking, Canada is not taking the possibilities that are in Mexico.

Not just as a trade partner, but also in education and tourism. There are many other areas that we are not collaborating together because when you see, and it is the same in Mexico, Canada sees Mexico as very far away and as a place for having vacations, as beach and sun, and mostly that is the idea for Canadians about Mexico. And in the case of Mexico, it's similar. When we wrote this book, we started to have some very interesting discussions between each other, Mexicans and Canadians.

And the idea of the perspective to open up more channels of communications was very hard, even in universities, even between think tanks, because we see each other very far. And we, in a think tanks, because we see each other very far. And we, in a different way, but we are very concentrated on how the attention of Washington. Mexico wants the attention of Washington and Canada the same, but we don't look at each other as allies for that attention either or for any other different partnerships. Laura, I wonder if part of it is, I mean, United States obviously is right next door, most of the people we do business

with speak English. Mexico is further away, I mean tell me I'm wrong but I don't think there are that many Canadians who speak Spanish. So it's a it's a tougher nut to crack isn't it? For sure and I think you know for for decades Canadian business people have just felt it's so easy to go to the United States. They speak the same language, very similar culturally. So it's almost kind of a laziness thing that, you know, in Europe, people learn different languages and the same in Asia. So that, you know, people are capable of learning new languages or have translators.

And many, of course, many Mexicans do speak English so that helps. But it is a kind of mental barrier to get over the idea that you have to go to a different place that might not be exactly like the society you're used to dealing with. In which case, José Luis, you want to give some advice to either people watching or listening to this or policymakers in the nation's capital or the provincial capital. How do we get Mexico and Canada and Ontario in particular to be better friends? I think certainly understanding how much we benefit each other, right?

Not just a trade, but also culturally, socially. I know that during the pandemic we saw here in Mexico City an influx of people from places like Toronto, Vancouver, that it became prohibitively expensive to live. So they came and became digital nomads here and they fell in love with the city. The truth is, is that yes, it is a different culture. It is very different in many ways, but there are many Mexicans here who speak English,

certainly here in the capital. And people find that it is a very welcoming place. It's said to be amongst the friendliest places that you can visit. But I think in terms of policy, of paying attention to the Ottawa-Mexico city relationship, I think especially with the unpredictability of Washington, it does make more sense for us to be able to cooperate. I think that's been negatively impacted. It was disappointing to see Trudeau kind of echo these comments about Mexico being a backdoor when there's no evidence as such. And I do think that, given the happy pictures at the G20, there's room for that relationship to once again improve and to see

each other and treat each other as equals. Often Mexico has been treated as lesser. We saw the comments from Doug Ford that taking offense at being compared to that. Of course, you know, we are equals. I mean, that's part of it. And I opened this conversation talking about the defense of sovereignty. That's why our political program is called soberania. That's the word for sovereignty in Spanish. We can have that kind of relationship, but always as equals. Let me do a quick follow up with you. What's the population of Mexico City right now? The greater metropolitan area is close to 25 million people. Oh my goodness. It's a huge, huge place. Okay, so it's like one and a half provinces of Ontario, which means, I mean, I suspect there are

lots of people up here who just think it's too big and too unwieldy and too difficult to get your hands around, which is why there isn't the relationship there might be. How do we get out of that way of thinking about Mexico City? I think paying more attention to what is happening here. There is so many different other places to get information these days, right? Different news programs online,

to actually have a sense that you have a familiarity with Mexico that perhaps you didn't or weren't able to get before. And again, I want to emphasize this, right? It's an exciting place to be right now. You know, there's a reason I'm living in Mexico City and not Toronto anymore. And I think this is a place where people can really kind of feel free. And, you know, we just happen to elect the first woman president of Mexico from a religious minority, right? So a lot of these culture war issues that I think are so predominant in North American politics,

by that I mean the United States and Canada, aren't so much of an issue here. And I think people paying attention to the political scene here with criticisms, which I think are always welcome, would do well for everybody in the North American relationship. Laura, I don't think the liberals would like me saying this,

but this is the reality when you're 20 points behind in the public opinion polling surveys. And that is that if the next election takes place next year, as everybody thinks it will, and if Pierre Poliev wins for the Conservatives, as a lot of people think he will, he, I mean his wife's not Mexican, but she is Latin American. And one wonders whether that changes the dynamic in the relationship among our two countries. What do you think? The Poliev election?

Yeah. Yes. Well, A, his wife is Venezuelan, but she's from a right-wing Venezuelan background. So I wonder if she might be more critical of the Amlo tradition, the Scheinbaum tradition in Mexico, because she comes from that right-wing background. Poliev himself, I believe he also supported the idea

that we should just go it alone with the United States and kick Mexico under the bus. So I'm skeptical about what might happen under Poliev administration vis-à-vis North America and Mexico. But the fact, you know, we haven't heard much from Poliev about what he will actually do, as opposed to he will not be Trudeau. So if he is elected, he'll have to deal with these really serious issues. And I'm hoping he'll adopt a bit more mature attitude

and view the real interests of Canada, which, as Solange and José Luis have been saying, lies in our collective future. We've got about two minutes left here. And Solange, let me put it to you. Regardless of what happens with the 25% tariffs and with the you smackaA, US, Mexico, Canada trade agreement, NAFTA was going to come under renegotiation in 2026 anyway. What do you see?

Well, what I see right now is the interest of the three countries on the renegotiation, which is good. I have the hope that after Canada pass this electoral moment, they will start to think and to see the benefit of having the three countries in disagreement. And in the same page, I see Mexico starting to try to make changes in a continuation of what they had before. But what I hope is that some of the people that are now in the cabinet of Claudia Sheinbaum knows and understands the difficulties and challenges of this relationship and they will understand that they might stay together, they should stay together with Canada in order to have a better trade agreement, in order to have these possibilities for all the people in the region.

So I have hopes for the 2026 renegotiation of KUSMA, TEMEC, USMCA. Whatever we want to call it. Those are your hopes. My hopes are that someday Jose Luis is going to find that he can move back to Toronto because the public transit system here is so good that he misses it so much that he's going to want to return.

What do you think the odds on that happening are, José Luis? I think they're low, but let's not rule it out. Okay, good. That's José Luis Carrara-Ocea. He's a journalist and co-host of the Sobrania Mexican Politics podcast. We thank you for joining us from Mexico City. Solange Marquez-Espinoza, the name of her book once again, Mexico and Canada, Two Nations in a North American Partnership, and Laura MacDonald, the name of her book once again, Mexico and Canada, Two Nations in a North American

Partnership, and Laura MacDonald, the Chancellor's Professor of Political Science at Carleton University in our nation's capital. Really great to have all three of you on our program tonight. Muchas gracias. Muchas gracias. Gracias. Merci.