The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - How are Voters Feeling About the Ford Government?

Episode Date: June 3, 2026

OSAP. School boards. Airports and jets. As Queen's Park breaks for the summer, the Ford government is facing growing scrutiny over a series of high-profile decisions and the public response to them. TVO Today's John Michael McGrath breaks down the latest moves and the political stakes behind them. Then, how are voters feeling about the government, and is there an opening for the opposition? We hear from a panel of political watchers: Kim Wright of Wright Strategies, Ontario Liberal strategist Andrew Perez, columnist Michael Taube, and John Michael McGrath.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Your gift is matched up to $100,000. Hi, I'm Nam Kiwanuka, host and producer of Mistreated, a podcast on women's health. There just hasn't been a lot of money put into researching women's health issues. If women are in pain, it's hysteria, it's an emotional issue. And this is what we see consistently, women's health. is not taken seriously. How did we get here? Find us wherever you get your podcasts,

and be sure to check out the video version of the show on the TVO Today YouTube channel. Hope to see you then. Hold on. Okay, hold on, folks. Let me just finish before you attack me. That was Premier Doug Ford back in March, facing questions from the media

about changes to freedom of information loss. Now, that's just one of the controversies he's been dealing with recently. There have also been school board takeovers, The push for jets at Billy Bishop, an OSAP overhaul, and of course, a private jet that the government bought and then sold after public outcry. I heard loud and clear from the people that this was not the time to purchase the planes. Polling from the end of April showed that the Tories did take a hit from the plane controversy, although they've seen a bit of a rebound since.

As the legislature wraps up for the summer, we look at the past controversies and future flashpoints, and whether the other parties could have an opening here. This is the rundown. OSAP, school boards, airports, and jets. The Ford government has been making some big moves and facing some big pushback. As Queens Park breaks for the summer, TVO today's John Michael McGrath is here to break it all down.

John Michael, great to have you. How are you doing? I'm good, thanks. How are you doing? I'm doing well. Let's talk. The spring legislative session is ending. noteworthy bills have been passed that we should know about. Well, there's been a few bills and other legislative matters related to the government's proposed expansion of the Billy Bishop Airport here in Toronto.

They are now looking to declare that a special economic zone, which given the powers that the government has previously given itself will mean, we'll give them very broad powers with that. But one that probably will affect more people in their day-to-day lives will be the changes that the government has made regarding boards of education, right? Obviously, boards of education overseeing the management of schools all across Ontario, and now those trustees who sit on those boards are going to be much more constrained in what they can spend money on and what they can be reimbursed for. Some of those issues I believe we've discussed on the show before will include things like travel expenses.

Obviously, there were a handful of very high-profile cases last year that the government wanted to ensure do not happen again. And then, you know, we have to talk, I think, about the government's changes to freedom of information legislation. Bill 97? Yeah, the bill substantially narrows what the public, what kinds of documents the public can get access to. Functionally, it means that basically nobody in the Progressive Conservative Party,

any document that is in the hands of either a, a minister or their parliamentary secretary or their political staff, it can be accessed using the provincial freedom of information law. That doesn't entirely foreclose freedom of information requests, but it has substantially narrowed it, and we're already seeing the effects of that, both in terms of the journalism inquiries that have been made, and we will see the effects of that ripple outward throughout the system.

Anything on correctional facilities in their capacity as well in the province? Right. So the government has made this part of its, you know, they're talking, they're expanding the meaning of protect Ontario. They have pivoted to a community safety message, particularly in the last few months, and they are interested in expanding the number of correctional facilities that are provincially run. This has a interaction, I guess I would say, with the government's complaints about people being released on bail. provincial jails are where people who have not yet been convicted of a crime are kept. And one reason why people do get released on bail is because Ontario's prisons are extremely

dangerously overcrowded. So one way for the government to put its money where its mouth is to keep people behind bars and not released on bail is to expand the prison system. But that is a lengthy and expensive process. Well, as you mentioned, this session was not without its controversies. the Ford government has faced some high-profile issues. Can you, let's go through a few, as you mentioned. Well, let's start with the FOIs.

Ford's phone records. Tell me a little bit about that. Right. So this was a case that was going on for many years. The premier does government business with his private phone and does not use his government-issued phone. And so journalists at Global News had used the freedom of information law to get access to his phone records.

the first the information of privacy commissioner and then two separate courts said that under the law as it is written the Premier had to, or as it was written, I should say, the Premier had to release his phone records. When that court decision came out from the Court of Appeals, the government seems to have decided that they would just rewrite the law. And that's how we got the changes in legislation that we saw this spring.

That has obviously been controversial. you know, anytime you constrain what the public has access to in terms of these types of information, it looks bad. And, you know, it interacted with some of the other decisions that the government has made this spring with a lot of people sort of perhaps unfairly asking, you know, well, like, what are they trying to hide? Right. All right. One that's gotten a lot of attention is the Ford government's private plane.

Let me a little bit about that. So this was an attempt and then a reversal to procure a private jet for the use of the premier and cabinet. The plane was bought, was never used, was then returned to Bombardier. The company refunded the government the costs of the plane itself, but there were something like $200,000 in just transaction costs. that the government incurred. The opposition parties have asked the Premier to personally repay those costs to the Crown. The Premier has not yet committed to do so.

And, you know, it was a notable moment for a few reasons. One, it really did mark one of the few times we've seen the opposition parties, in this case, the Liberal Party poll ahead of the progressive conservatives. And, you know, a lot of people saying that it may have permanently damaged the Premier's brand.

And very quickly, let's talk OSEP, because that was one of the first protests that we actually saw outside of Queens Park earlier this year when we saw students protesting outside of there. What do we need to know about OSEP? Right. This was a change in the way that the government provides student assistance. The former liberal government had really restructured OSAP

so that it was much more grant-based. People did not need to. to go into enormous amounts of debt to go to post-secondary education. The Ontario government, the current forward government, has now reversed some of those changes so that students will get fewer grants and will get more assistance in the form of loans. That's going to be more difficult for them to bear. They did this at the same time as they lifted the cap on tuition at Ontario universities. So university is both going to get more expensive and more of the money.

those costs will have to be paid with loans instead of grants. And so students were predictably upset by those changes. All right, John Michael McGrath, don't go too far because you will be talking a little bit more in detail with our other panelists in our next discussion. So stay there. I will stay right here. How are voters feeling about the Ford government? If some are interested in making a change, the opposition parties could have an opportunity

here. if they can seize it. Kim Wright is a longtime NDP consultant and principal and founder of Wright Strategies. Andrew Perez is a principal at Perez Strategies and an Ontario liberal strategist. Michael Tobe is a columnist for several publications, including the National Post and Troy Media. And TVO today's very own John Michael McGrath is back again. Great to have you all in studio. Michael, great to have you on the line.

John Michael. We're going to start with you. How would you characterize the spring legislative session? Really got derailed by the matter of the Premier's purchase and then return of the private jet. I think that eclipsed a lot of some of the other more substantive measures that the government was trying to address. It did some pretty obvious political harm to the Premier's agenda and perhaps more permanently to his brand. But, you know, aside from that, there were actually some substantial measures that did get passed, you know, things like changes to OSAP, municipal accountability legislation, changes to school boards, those kinds of things. So there was some productivity there, but if you are the kind of person who, like myself, is not paid to pay attention to Queens Park, I kind of suspect the only thing you heard from Queens Park this spring was about the private jet.

Private jet, private jet, private jet. Michael, as we talk about private jets, we know that Doug Ford backtracked on that. But dug his feet in on the release of his cell phone records. Is he picking his battles? Well, look, I mean, unfortunately, when you're premier, as he's been for about eight years, you're going to have certain types of legislative sessions or periods of time that just don't go your way perfectly. When it comes to that, there's always a risk that when a government does not reveal information, personal information that may be in, you know, an iPhone, a handheld device within your computer, etc.

You're taking a risk that you're hiding something from the public, even when you're not. It's always good to be open, honest, and transparent. And Doug Ford, the Premier of Ontario, has largely been that for the eight years that he's been there. And when you start to backtrack or you sort of, shall we say, slip up a little bit, it does make you wonder. It doesn't necessarily mean it's going to affect your polling for long. It doesn't mean that you can't get out of it and dig out of that hole. It's possible, but it's always a bit of a risk for sure. Kim, with a majority government three years left in his term, what are the challenges in opposition?

Well, there's so much to react to, right? The Premier has been very good this session of flooding the zone. So many pieces of legislation, some that have been lingering for a while that he finally got through, like the Accountability Act for municipal counselors. That is a substantially game-changing piece of legislation in a positive way. There are other pieces of legislation that perhaps less so, in particular, around OSAP and how that is funded and what that means for the next generation of students going forward. So they certainly had a very busy legislative agenda, so there's lots for the opposition to react to.

What was great about that from an opposition perspective, I guess, was there was so much to react to in so many different ways that Ontarians were now engaging, particularly with Marriott Stiles and the New Democrats, they've been able to respond with lots of emails into the Premier's office, directing people of how they can get involved. They've had, you know, $200,000-plus

dollars in donations in Q1, lots of new data into party databases. And more than that, it gives Marat Stiles an opportunity to say what she would do differently as Premier, and people are getting to see her both the feisty and cheeky side, but also a potential Premier and waiting. Well, we're not just seeing Mard as well. We're seeing, you know, Ontarians out there as well.

We've seen several protests across the province. How can the NDP actually move the needle when it comes to voter intention? Well, and that is the conversation, right? Going out and taking it the summer to go on tour, she's done a lot of tour. Caucus members have been out on tour, developing those riding associations. What's always fascinating to me when I see polling data, what you need to understand about New Democrats is that when we start getting into that 22, 23, 24%,

that's when big swaths of the province start flipping in voter intention. Well, the government will do what the government is going to do and we will oppose where it's required to oppose, but being able to flip those and become the next government, that's the challenge and the opportunity. And what we've seen of late from the NDP in particular, their social media and other places and on the ground is being able to seize those opportunities.

All right. We'll talk about opportunities, especially for the liberals, a little bit later. But I do want to know, Andrew, what are some of the governments, some of the recent moves and things that they have been doing in the recent months that are troubling liberals? Well, you know, we look ahead to next week is the eight-year anniversary of Doug Ford, right?

coming into power. He ran on a slogan of for the people. Eight years later, you know, you look at every metric in this province and people are falling behind. More than 2.5 million Ontarians don't have a family doctor. Unemployment in Ontario is among the highest in Canada at 7.5%. Youth unemployment is 16%. We're heading into the summer months. You know, thousands and thousands of young people won't be able to find work. Doug Fulg. you know, rammed in changes to OSAP to increase the loan portion versus the grant portion, which will make it harder for young people who are already struggling to secure employment, to secure post-secondary education.

And so what we see with this government is a consolidation, increasingly a consolidation of power around the Premier's office and the cabinet, whether it was the Greenbelt scandal, the Human Resources Slesh Fund, and other policies. you know, amending the Freedom of Information Act that's been in place for 40 years to make it, you know, near impossible for journalists, citizens, and the opposition to hold the government to account. And we also see this with Bill 101, consolidating power around the education minister,

taking that power away from school board trustees, reducing the number of school board trustees, reducing their salaries, and taking influence and power away from local officials closest to the people and putting it in the hands of the Premier. All right. I should mention that TBO is an agency of the Ministry of Education. Anytime we talk about the Ministry of Education, I'd like to bring that up just so our viewers know.

Michael, I want to get your thoughts on what was being said here. We talked about consolidation. What are your thoughts? Consolidation obviously is a major issue, and it's a major issue for every government, no matter its political strife. This is naturally something that they have to be careful with, and this was a difficult session for the Premier.

I'm not going to sugarcoat it. It was. So when it comes to consolidating the program, I mean, there have been lots of good things. There have been some bad things. But really, as we'll probably talk about a little bit later, Doug Ford's poll numbers, in spite of it all, are still pretty good. And when you think about it, you know, that's sort of like the Teflon Prime Minister we used to talk about. Well, this is the Teflon Premier in many ways,

because even when he drops like a stone, somehow the stone comes out of the water magically, and he's back up because he's now back up by more than 10 points. Michael, right on cue. All right, let's look at the most recent polling done by advocates. This is on May 20th. While the jet controversy was happening, conservatives and liberals were neck-in-neck as we talked about, but this newer poll shows voter intention still leaning,

41% for the progressive conservatives, then we got 31% towards liberals, NDP, 17%, a little lower than when we're talking about that 20, and the Greens and other at just 5%. John Michael, how do you evaluate these findings? You know, I'm not surprised by a rebound for the progressive conservatives. I think we have seen this pattern before with Doug Ford where, you know, he, this is going to maybe sound kind of mean, but he's very practiced at this point for apologizing.

You know, he has had these moments before where there's been a crisis and he has come out and he said, Mea Culpa, and voters have tended to take that at face value and basically forgive him. What I think is going to be, what we don't yet know and what we're going to have to wait and find out is whether this has put a lower ceiling on progressive conservative numbers going forward. Has he permanently alienated some increment of voters who, you know, were not ready to consider the liberals or the NDP yet in a future election, but are now going to be more open-minded? and how that, you know, obviously the NDP have a leader and they're moving forward with their strategies. The liberals will pick a leader moving forward. And, you know, this is all going to be dynamic

over the next two to three years. Kim, you talked about Mara Stiles' visibility. How frustrating is it to see those numbers where we're at 17%. If we weren't doing the other things like raising a lot of money and in particular small donation money, Those are individuals that change a movement, change a trajectory of the conversation. So when at some point, when we do go back to the electorate, being able to have that army of people ready to support and engage, that also allows us to build up those writing associations, find more spectacular candidates locally, train and do all of those grassroots work that is what you need.

viewers will know that that's part of the democratic and campaign process. Is it always frustrating when you look across the aisle and know you could probably do it better? Absolutely. And that's where you develop the opportunity for Mart to become Premier. They've had some pretty extraordinary last couple of months in particular, really great work that's been done on issue campaigns. You know, we look at some of the work. that she's been doing around changing taxes off of some of the grocery items,

you know, pre-prepared foods versus non-prepared, really practical things to help Ontarians where they're at and where they're struggling. And one of the great things that Marrett has going for her is her ability to not only talk at a high level, but where people are at and with them. And really not a, quote, feel your pain, but actually engage where people are at. And that Newfoundlander side of her certainly comes through. And it's great to have a leader who is both empathetic and can really work through a high-level policy. Andrew, I am curious.

I want to pick up on something that John Michael said, which was, you know, perhaps looking at those numbers, that perhaps Ontarians have forgiven Doug Ford. I'm curious. Do you think that is the case here? I'm not sure. And as we know, polls are a snapshot in time. A month ago, we had an abacus, another abacus, and a liaison, poll, which put the two parties

liberal, neck and neck. One had the liberals a couple points ahead. As we head into the summer, yes, it's true. Ontario liberals are headed into a robust leadership contest, but our interim leader, John Fraser and our 14-member caucus continues to punch above its weight,

I would argue, having more impact than the official opposition in DP. Ontario liberals are not going to let up on this government. We're not going to let the Ontario people forget that in the depths of an affordability crisis, when millions of Ontarians can't afford the basics, food, gas, rent, the basics in this province, not things that have historically been a luxury in Ontario,

the bare minimums. Millions of Ontarians can't get by, and what did this Premier do? He bought a $29 million jet for him and his government. And when we pointed out that this was absolutely egregious, he didn't even apologize. He said it was a communications error. With all that being said, how can the Liberal Party capitalize? As you mentioned, you've got this leadership race. Your second when we look at the polls, yes, a snapshot. But how do you capitalize on those polling trends?

I think the leadership race is going to help that. We currently have four candidates, two from within the caucus, two from outside the caucus. And I think this is going to be a competitive race. It's the first race in years in which there's not an heir apparent. And it's also the first racing years where we have two main. candidates from within side the caucus, and I know that's exciting the party grassroots. And I, so I think for the Ontario Liberal Party, it's remaining focused like a laser on affordability, the struggles that every day Ontarians are having, and really pointing out that this government,

eight years in, is tired and has not been for the people. Again, whatever metric you look at, and also the lack of accountability and ethics in this government, the changes to the Freedom of Information Act, also expansion of the BAT, also expansion of the Billy Bishop Airport. Zero consultation with the city of Toronto, with the mayor of Toronto, no environmental assessment. It's a land grab. And I think Ontarians writ large are very concerned. Before I get to Michael, I think it's only fair that I get you to respond to what Andrew had to say there. Look, we've also seen the liberals continue with their leadership. The whole Nate Erskinsmith Fiasco in Scarborough, Southwest, is certainly impacted and showcased what Ontarians have known for years,

which is that the Liberal Party and the liberal leadership is an ego-driven situation and not actually about Ontarians. I mean, look, Nader Skinsmith became the epitomey of whiner, not a winner, and they thought that he was going to be on his coronation track, turned out not so much. And then they've had this whole scandal about whether their process was corrupt or not or corrupted or not and whatever that ego-driven nonsense that showcased to Ontarians that they're not serious about how do they both pick a leader, pick candidates, and get beyond their own ego-driven nonsense for the people of Ontario. John Michael, I'm going to get you to get some commentary on this.

Well, I think, you know, going forward, we're going to watch to see whether the Liberal Party does, in fact, capitalize on this moment, right? The leadership price is a natural time for a bunch of new. attention and new money to come into the party. But you do, at the end of the day, actually have to pick a candidate, or rather pick a leader. And without wanting to disparage, you know, either Stephen Del Dukukkah or Bonnie Cromby, they did not win the elections that they led the party into. And the risk for the liberals right now is that you could, in fact, squander this moment

where they are doing very well in the polls. and they have this opportunity to potentially, you know, really match the feat that Justin Trudeau did in 2015, right, leading the federal liberals from third to first and forming government. That's within the realm of possibility for the Ontario liberals, but it's going to be immensely dependent on who they actually pick as a leader and if that person can really do what's going to be several years of hard work. All right.

Michael, I'm finally going to get you in. here. I do want to talk maybe about the government in power today. Help me understand a little bit. Does this government have anything to worry about with voter sentiment? You know, as John Michael and Andrew were talking about, you know, has this government been forgiven? Yeah, I mean, John sort of touched on the issue that Doug Ford is very good with apologies, but I've written about this. Most politicians, as we know, and all of us at the table know this, are not very good at apologies. It's very difficult to say, I was wrong, or, you know, use the line Henry Winkler had in the happy days for his character the Fonz,

I'm r-r-wr-wr-wr-wr-wr-wr-wr-wr. They just can't see him to that stage and do it. And I understand why. You don't want to look weak in front of the public. You want to look like you're a strong leader who understands the direction that he or she is going to take. In this case, though, I think that the conservatives can be forgiven because, A, Premier Ford is easily forgiven

because he's honest about things. And even if you make mistakes, it's best to admit when you're wrong and move forward. I like that. And secondly, aside from what's being discussed here, you know, the polls basically are a snapshot, as Andrew correctly said. But, I mean, I agree with certain things that Kim was pointing out as well about the liberal leadership race based on the fact that the liberal party right now is rudderless. They can say whatever they want. They're rudderless. They don't have a leader.

The 31% that you see in that poll historically, if you look at polling data, it's the idea. or thought that they're in favor of. Once a leader is actually established, whoever it may be for the liberals, and we'll see it in time, if it was someone like a Nate Erskine Smith, who's the most polarizing figure they have in the political movement provincially,

that would have been disastrous. I think they can choose better, but that's up to them. But for this government overall, I think that they are seemingly moving on the right track. They're in the 40s. When you're in the 40s, historically in Ontario, the PCs usually sort of max out

around 45, 46, 47%. So 41 isn't too far off. I think they're heading in the right direction. And for that reason, I think that as long as Doug Ford stays with sort of his Ford nation model of conservativeism, populism, and retail politics, which I've talked about, and I think really for him is some of the best things that he can do. Be a man of the people. Speak the language of the people. Don't buy, as we say, the gravy plane, the $28.9 million, it was a best thing. bad move to make, and I'm glad they sold it back to Bombardias in spite of what's going on. Keep at the level and keep following the path that you have to this point. Because you've had three straight majority governments.

You've got the magic formula. Keep it up. Don't change. Don't shift. But when policies come up that you have to deal with, do it with a smile. If you have to apologize, I don't have an issue with it. Andrew, you're going to get the last read. As we head into the summer and fall, what's the main sort of integrity or transparency challenge

the forward government has on its plate? It's a continual trend that this government and it's intensified over recent years to cover up decisions. And I think to address Michael's point head on, this aw shucks, we made a mistake, I'm going to walk it back.

That may have worked for the first or second term. This is a third term government will be in power for a decade at the time of the next election. I hope and I'm confident this is going to be a change election. Ontarians want change. Ontarians aren't able to get by in this economy.

The Ontario Liberal Party, and I'm confident that the leadership debate will bring this out, is a genuine debate about how we can strengthen health care and education in this province because both are in a state of utter disrepair because of the decisions of this government, who's underfunded the education system, for example, by $6.3 billion over the last eight years. And so I think what Michael's saying might have worked in the first or the second term, but Ontarians want answers and they're not going to accept these answers from Doug Ford anymore.

They want change. We will have to leave it there but we will continue to follow this story. Michael, Andrew, Kim, John Michael, always a pleasure. Thank you so much for this. Really appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you. I'm Jan. Thanks for watching The Rundown. How much have you been hearing about Ontario's

opposition parties? And do you think their message is breaking through? Let us know. Email, rundown, at TVO.org, or as always, drop us a comment on our YouTube page. Until then, we will see you tomorrow. If you're enjoying this series, please consider supporting TVO with a donation to make more insightful and thought-provoking podcast possible.

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