The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - Is Canada Ready for a New Era of Extreme Weather?

Episode Date: April 15, 2026

Last year was the second-worst wildfire season in Canadian history, with millions of hectares burned and communities across the country forced to evacuate. As climate change drives longer, more intense fire seasons, how bad could future years get and are we prepared? We examine Canada's growing wildfire risk with Mike Flannigan, a professor of wildland fire at Thompson Rivers University, and look at other extreme weather threats, including severe storms, with Greg Kopp of Western University and Anabela Bonada of the University of Waterloo's Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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And this is what we see consistently. Women's health is not taken seriously. How did we get here? Find us wherever you get your podcasts and be sure to check out the video version of the show on the TVO Today YouTube channel. Hope to see you then. Last year was the second worst wildfire season in Canadian history. More than 6,000 wildfires. Over 8 million hectares burned. And here in Ontario, we faced our largest ever fire.

It was called Red Lake 12, which burned almost 200,000 hectares, put that in perspective, slightly less than the size of Tokyo. In 2023, fires tore through 15 million hectares, an area larger than England. Those red dots you see on the map there were the active. fires. And even in years that don't break those overall records, wildfires torture vast expanses of land, force evacuations, gut communities, and cause death. In 2021, most of Lytton, BC, was destroyed and two residents died. In 2024, 25,000 people evacuated from Jasper, Alberta, and one firefighter was killed. And as climate change worsens, experts say our fire season will only get longer,

more intense and harder to predict. So what does that mean for this year? How bad could 2026 get and are we actually ready? And fires obviously aren't the only kind of extreme weather event. We also look at how climate change is affecting storms and what the forecast holds for extreme weather events. This is the rundown. It's fire season again and lately we're breaking records. The kind you don't want to break. So what's the outlook for this year? And are we prepared? Mike Flanagan is a professor of wildland fire at Thompson Rivers University in Camloops, BC. Great to have you on the line. Mike, how are you doing? Great to be with you. I'm doing great.

All right, let's take a look at Canada's recent wildfire history. This chart is from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center, shows the total annual area burned in Canada. From about 2010, we can see things are fairly stable, then a sudden drop in 2020, and a huge spike. just on the right hand of the screen in 2023. And again, in 2025, there seems to be extreme spikes both up and down in recent years. So Mike, one has to ask, what does 2026 have in store for us in this country when it comes to wildfires? Well, first, a big disclaimer, it's April.

So, you know, what's going to happen this fire season depends on the day-to-day weather during the fire season and the number of ignitions we see. and by weather I mean hot, dry, windy weather. We get those in the ignitions. It could be a busy summer. Having said that, though, there are indicators that suggest what may happen. One is drought. Much of Canada is abnormally dry or in drought,

and that sets the stage for an active fire season. Also, the summer forecast is for many parts of Canada, especially the West, to be a hot summer. and in places dry. So that also is a strong indicator of an active fire season. And the warmer we get, the more fire we see. People say, why is that? Well, the warmer we get, the longer the fire season.

The warmer we get, the more lightning we expect. The warmer we get, it gets better at drying out the fuels, the dead fuels on the forest floor, needles, twigs, leaves. so it's easier for a fire to start, whether it's from a lightning strike or from human activities, and more of that stuff's available to burn, which leads to higher intensity fires that are difficult to impossible to extinguish. You had mentioned drought. Are there particular areas right now in the province that you're kind of keeping an eye on in terms of areas of concern? I know, again, as you said, quite early, but areas particularly in the east or in the west, as you mentioned.

So within Canada, you know, it's mostly the West, but within Ontario, around the elbow, you know, that part in Ontario and Manitoba where it bends like an elbow, that area, you know, northwestern Ontario, that's the prime territory for Ontario for this 2026 fire season. From what I gather, forecasting for wildfire is notoriously difficult. But it is something that you do quite well. And I am curious, are we getting better at forecasting wildfires as the technology gotten better? And more importantly, what we're going to forecast this year in 2026. Is this going to be a big indicator as to what sort of the new realities are for Canadians?

Yeah. So first, we've had three really active fire seasons. About 8% of our forest has burned in the last three years. So we've never seen three years like this. I always used to say, oh, you know, some of yours would be cooler and wetter and we'll get a break. And, you know, I still believe that regionally for like Ontario or Quebec. That's the case. But nationally, we're a big country.

So somewhere it's going to be hot and dry and we get ignitions and we're going to have an active fire season. So to me, 2026 is a litmus test. If it's another bad fire season, then I expect the new reality is that most years are going to be a bad. fire a season. And you know, for folks in Toronto, your place, you know, isn't going to burn down from wild on fire. However, the quality of your life can be in the tank for weeks because of smoke. Smoke from a fire a thousand kilometers away can make your life miserable. And, you know, that's what we're living with. Now, in terms of forecasting, yes, we are getting better, especially, you know, forecasting extreme fire weather. And, you know, stepping back just for a second,

there's a recipe for wildfire and it's universal. It applies to Ontario, it applies to the Amazon and it has three ingredients. First is fuel, vegetation, how much, how dry, what type. Second, ignition, people

and lightning. And in Canada and in Ontario, it's about 50-50. And third, hot, dry, windy weather. So if we can forecast the hot, dry, windy weather, ignitions are a little more tricky, but there are models out there. And we know where the fuel is. That's pretty static. How dry it is, that

does change day to day. Mike, to what extent is climate change responsible for these recent record-breaking wildfires that we've been seeing? So in Canada, right now, our 10-year average annual area burns about 4 million hectares. And that probably doesn't mean much to your audience. It's about twice the size of Lake Ontario. It's a huge territory. In the 70s, you know, You showed data for the last 15, 16 years. Our records go back to the 1950s. And in the 1970s, it was about 1 million hectares. So it's almost a quadrupling of area burned in Canada.

And I attribute this largely, not solely, to human-caused climate change. I can't be any clearer than that. Western United States has also seen a quadrupling of area burn. And it's because we're getting warmer. And people say, well, why is temperature so important? Here, I'm not talking about an individual fire like the Fort McMurray fire. I'm talking about fire or a large area, like Ontario, and over a longer period of time, and it's because our fire season is getting longer.

Not every year, but on average, our fire season is getting longer because we're warmer. We're expecting more lightning as it gets warmer. 50% of the fires are started by lightning, but they're responsible for 90% of the area burned. And the last reason is, as the temperature, warms, it's very effective at drying out fuels, which means it's easier for fires to start and spread. I want to get a better understanding of our firefighting abilities in this province. Are we keeping pace with the scale and intensity of these fires? As you mentioned, fire season's getting longer. There is a lot of, you know, you need a lot of manpower on the ground to deal with these

as well if they're extending for days. So help me understand, do we have the ability here in the province to deal with it. So first of all, Canadian fire management agencies are among the best in the world. And Ontario is among the best in Canada. They are professional, well trained. Do we have enough resources? Probably not for the fires we've been seeing the last few years. There's something called the national preparedness level.

And there's five levels. And level five means we have no resources in Canada. We've been an NPL, national preparedness level. prepared this level five for the last three years, two out of three days have been at that level five, which means no resources. And we have to go with the states or South Africa or Europe or Australia to bring them in. But, you know, I will say that the approach that Ontario uses, and I'll call appropriate response, is the way to go to deal with fire in this age.

And what that means is they make an assessment on every fire that occurs. So a fire starts two kilometers from Timmons, that's unwanted fire and we go put it out. If a fire starts 100 kilometers north of Timmons, they look at, you know, where will it spread in the next week or two? Will it impact infrastructure, communities? And they actually look at whether it be beneficial. They're the only fire management agency that considers the benefits of wildfire. And yes, there are benefits. Things like spruce buddworm in the east, mountain pine,

be on the West, fire is a great agent knocking down these pests and diseases as just Mother Nature doing her work. So fire management should allow Mother Nature when and where possible to do her thing. And, you know, this decision has to be made rapidly within five minutes because when a fire starts and it's an unwanted fire, the sooner you get to it, the better. And that's why, you know, reporting a fire right away, 310 fire 911 is, you know, if you see a fire report right away, especially this time a year of spring because you have a lot of dead organic material from last season and most of the fires start this time of year are by people. With that being said, I am curious, what should Canada be doing more, whether it's at the federal

level or the provincial level to better prepare for what is to come? As I understand, you know, the Canadian government doesn't have sort of the equivalent in the U.S. U.S. as FEMA, the federal emergency management agency, something that all in one can kind of deal with the concerns here. But what can the other levels of government be doing? So, you know, I just mentioned we're short and resources. So there's different ways. You could give money to the provinces. You could buy water bombers. And actually, they're contracting water bombers out this year in case it is an active fire season. But I think having a federal emergency management agency is the way to go. We should explore what's being done around the world

and apply that to the Canadian context so that we can deal with floods, hurricanes, fires. You know, like hurricanes, for example, there's a hurricane center and we should be doing that for fire and actually I'm going to start a weekly fire weather outlook for the country and post it online so we can kind of keep an eye of what's coming because we can tell most of the time when that extreme fire weather is coming, and that means be prepared. And the ignitions, yeah, as I said, they're more difficult, but we do know where the existing fires are, and we can kind of know where the lightning may occur, and so we can be better prepared and move resources ahead of time to those locations and being more proactive.

Emergency management has phases, prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Fire management is great response. Preparedness, they're pretty good, but we can be a little more proactive. Of course, things like prevention and mitigation, for every dollar you spend there, it usually saves you $5, 10, $15 down the road and disaster costs. I want to get some thoughts and ideas for our viewers who are watching here in Ontario and those in Canada. We have some vast areas of rural communities and towns in this province. We also have urban centers.

So for those who are watching, what's one thing? that they should understand about wildfire risk this summer and how they can be better prepared. So observe fire bans. If you're in a higher risk location, if you're in a community surrounded by forest, especially if it's a conifer forest, which supports what we call a crown fire, spreads from the forest floor to the tops or crown to the tree,

those are the high intensity fires that are the problem. Have a go bag ready. And, you know, if you see a fire, report right away, 310 fire 911, and have escape routes planned, especially if you're a community with only one road in or out, that can be a real issue. Or if you're a flying community, I mean, fire disproportionately affects indigenous communities, northern remote communities, where you don't have escape routes like a road or two. So, you know, just keep an eye on the, you know, the province will have fire weather forecast and alert the public when things are high, high danger. And they actually do have agreements with industry to either slow down or shut down during periods of high fire danger.

So just stay tuned. If you see smoke, you know, report right away and be prepared to leave if it's close by. What should people know about the Fire Smart Canada program? So FireSmart has seven principles. And, you know, what we need to do is be fire smart communities and high-risk locations. And the thing is, it really needs to be mandatory because, you know, things like flammable building materials, flammable material right adjacent to your home, especially that zero to one point five meter zone. It should be free of flammable material. A fire typically enters a community through a rain of embers, little burning bits of twig, bark, sometimes pine cones.

And that's how the fire spreads into a community. But the problem is if you're close to your neighbor and they're not fire smart, those embers will catch their house on fire and then it will spread structure to structure. So even if you do everything right, you can be toasted because it's not done across the board. And I'll give you example. Jasper, unfortunately, a third of the town burned down 2024. The new bills are making two of the Firesmart principles mandatory. Building materials cannot be flammable. And that zone, 0 to 1.5 meters, has to be free of flammable material.

So we're on the path in Ontario supports Firesmart. I believe they're increasing funding for it. But we really have to look at making it using regulations because, you know, If you make it voluntary, it won't happen. Mike, we are going to end things there. Thank you so much for breaking this all down for us today. My pleasure. In 2022, a derecho, a strong and fast-moving line of wind and thunderstorms

tore across Ontario and Quebec. It knocked out power to nearly a million households and killed 11 people. It also caused around a billion dollars in insured damage. Is climate change making historic storage, like this more common. Greg Kopp is director of the Canadian severe storms laboratory and an engineering professor at Western University. And Annabella Bonato is the managing director of climate science

at the University of Waterloo's Intact Center on Climate Adaptation. Annabella, great to see you again. Yes, thank you for having me. Greg, great to have you on the line. Nice to be here, thank you. All right, Annabella, we're going to start with you. Ontario has seen some frightening storms in recent years, even on my drive into work this morning, a bit of a storm. I was like, oh, what's happening?

Are we actually seeing severe storms in rainfall, or is this a perception? We're having more storms, definitely, and climate change is one of the main drivers. So we know that with climate change, our average temperatures rising, and for every degree that it rises, the atmosphere can hold more moisture. It can hold up to 8% more moisture. So that moisture is really coming down in a shorter amount of time. A lot of water comes down when a storm comes through. So we're seeing a bit more storms occur, but also just more water falling on the ground. And we had a warning today.

There was a flood warning issued for some areas around southern Ontario and a little bit of northern Ontario. Just because our grounds are quite full of water right now, some areas still have snow. So all that rain that's coming down can lead to some flooding. All right. Greg, on the more extreme side of weather, let's talk about winds because this is what you do. You know, tornadoes, sort of downbursts, but also in our lexicon as we're learning more things like Deutcheos. It just seems like, you know, as we kind of go through time, we're learning more and more about these strong storms. What does the data actually show?

Well, these are some of the most extreme storms nature has to offer. The data is showing across North America, Canada and the U.S., that there's not many more tornadoes. There's probably about the same number of tornadoes, but they're changing where they're happening. And for Canada, they're moving, they're shifting eastwards. So instead of having a peak in southern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, as it was historically, the peak is now moving into southern Ontario, where we are. And so we're probably experiencing more here in southern Ontario than we had in the past, although overall across the continent, there's not more tornadoes, for example. Is the perception or the trend that we will see more of this in this province?

Yeah, we're expecting this eastward shift. We haven't been able to attribute it to climate change yet, but it's very evident in the data and the transition of the data over the last 30, 40 years. is kind of the time frame we look at and we're seeing that change happening. Annabella, the planet continues to warm, as you mentioned. The last three years, we have had the hottest on record. What does that mean for Ontario's severe storms when we look at the long-term forecast? Well, we know also that 2026 is looking like it's going to be another hottest year on record and potentially now 2027.

So as we look forward, even just the short term, we should expect to see variations in how precipitation occurs. So we may have more intense rainfall in some areas, but drought in other areas. That's the tricky thing about water when it comes to climate change. We think it's all going to go up, but we could actually see more drought.

So, for example, New Brunswick had drought over the last few months. Their winter was quite dry. So we just don't really know how water's going to hit. In the shorter term, I can say Ontario's looking at potentially having a few more intense storms,

but a bit more drought, just because of that hot climate that we're expecting to have over the next couple of years. But with water, it's really hard to know where it's going to go in the long term. And if we're going to have more extreme precipitation or not, likelihood is, yes,

more events where a lot of water comes down will probably go up, but we just don't know exactly where. So we've already had flood warnings in southern Ontario. Today, you know, flood warning there. With the real test coming in the summer, a lot of people can remember what, you know, July's of, I think it was two years ago,

in the city of Toronto and southwestern Ontario, where we've seen a lot. I am curious about the watershets in this province. Are there any watersheds that you're concerned about right now that you're looking at kind of marked on a map for something that we need to be watching? Not particularly like that, but certain cities are always higher risk.

So 80% of Canadian cities are built on floodplains. So floodplains are where rivers are meant to grow. And what we love about Canada is we say, let's go for a drive to a small city. And usually that small city will have a river running through it. So we've put ourselves at risk. So that means generally if we're close to a lake, so like Lake Ontario, all those cities in that area, or if you're close to a river or even where I am from Guelph, we have a river,

you are at higher risk of flooding. So we're always looking to those areas. But again, if we're looking at a year where we could potentially experience more warming than normal, I'm a little bit more concerned about the drought issues, so not enough water happening in those areas. What's the concern there when when it comes to droughts? Drought can lead to a lot of stuff. Yeah, so it's not great. So of course it can lead to more wildfire risk.

Luckily, we are getting quite a bit of rain right now in southern Ontario, but as the months shift, and if we do move into an El Niño, so we've heard that there's a 61% chance that we're going to shift to El Niño. El Lino tends to bring a bit of drought to the area. So that can increase our chances of wildfire. And we had a wildfire in Coortha, which is quite close to Toronto, just a couple of hours away last summer. The likelihood of that happening again is increasing.

So it's something to look out for and be aware of. Okay, and of course with fires, even if we're in an urban center like Toronto, there is smoke and all of that that we have to contend with as well. Absolutely. All right, Greg, as a specialist in the field of extreme windstorms and tornadoes, let's talk a little bit about preparedness here in this province. Are you concerned about the lack of preparedness? What do we have in terms of safeguards?

Well, not much. And so it is concerning. One of the peak vulnerabilities in severe storms, in severe windstorms is the roof. Our roofs are really strong for holding the snow up, but when the wind comes, it wants to lift the roof up, and we need to hold it down, actually. And there's simple things we can do to mitigate that,

but we're not doing them yet, and so that's where the vulnerability is for people. And it's a life safety threat. If your roof comes off in a tornado, that can go down and hit your neighbor's house downwind, and your walls are vulnerable to collapse. So that's where the concerns are for real extreme windstorms. Where is the safest place to be in a home when a tornado is hitting?

Well, the basement. And fortunately in Canada and Ontario, most of our homes have basements. And so that's a really safe place to go in a severe windstorm. If you don't have access to a basement, get away from the windows and get to the interior of the house if you can. So for those, of course, we're in the city of Toronto and major cities, lots of towers, lots of condos, apartments. You're talking, get into the center of the building.

Yeah, get away from the glass, get towards the elevator core. Glass, when it's under pressure, actually can emit small particles as it's stressed. And so there's a danger even if your windows don't break. So get away from the windows. All right, Annabelle, let's get back to flooding. When we see flooding Ontario, is it, we talk about the watershed, is it rivers overflowing? Is it sewer systems backing up? What happens when both are overwhelmed?

Yeah, it's a combination, and historically, we used to see more river flooding occur. So again, our cities are built around rivers, so we can see that happen quite a bit. But over the last few years, like the last 15, we're seeing a lot more just urban flooding or what's called pluvial flooding. So flooding from a lot of rain coming down. Pluvial, which comes from like a word about rain. Or it's also talked about as overland flooding. So all of those kind of mean the same thing, that a lot of rain comes down because we've built cities

with a lot of pavement. The rain has nowhere to go, so it goes into our homes. So we're more and more seeing that and seeing our systems being overflown, and so then the water, again, has nowhere to go, goes into your home. So it's so important that people prepare everywhere. So even if you're not really close to a river,

you're still at risk of flooding just because there's pavement around your home. Well, we talk about preparing. What are we doing? Yeah, there's so much to do. So at the municipal level, ideally, you know, we want to preserve our watersheds. So there's a lot of conversation around

what's the importance of a watershed, what do they do for us? They slow down water so that peak time when the water is coming down, it can slow it down, clean it and release it slowly. So ideally we keep those around. But also if you already have your home, there's already a lot of pavement around you, you can install a sun pump or check if you have a sun pump, make sure you have a backup battery. So electricity tends to go out with these extreme storms. You want to make sure that's still working. And for simpler things, cleaning out your eavesdrops, making sure that water can flow freely away from your home by also extending your downspouts. So a lot of

Lots of stuff that can be done. Okay. Greg, in terms of this province, when we talk about tornadoes, the first thing I think about is actually the U.S., and I think about Tornado Alley, where, you know, they have the highest incidence of tornadoes. Do we have a sense? You had said that things are shifting here in this province. Do we have a sense of where in Ontario is the most vulnerable? I think a lot of people in New Market in Aurora and Uxbridge have, you know, strong memories of what happened only a few years ago.

Do they need to be concerned, or what direction are the? storm's headache. Yeah, well, they're in southwest Ontario. Actually, the peak that we've analyzed is right here in London, where I am. We haven't had a big one in southwestern Ontario in a number of years, but statistically, that's where the most are. But all of the southern part of the province is really vulnerable to it. Since we started the Northern Tornadoes project, we've been seeing over 60 tornadoes a year

in Ontario, southern Ontario and Quebec. which is quite a lot more than one really thinks about with tornadoes. So that vulnerability is growing. And it's also growing because as our population grows and we spread out over the land, we're covering more of the space. So we just have more vulnerability from those two things, a changing pattern and a population growth. With that being said, Greg, if there was one thing you could do,

wave your magic wand, let's say, that would better prepare Ontario, not just, on an individual level, but from a provincial lens, to deal with severe storms in extreme weather, what would it be? I would change the building code. I would change the way we build our houses, just to make them safer. It actually is really cost-effective.

In a new construction, it's a few hundred dollars to $1,000 to make it resilient to tornadoes. And we hold the structure in place with that. And so we think that's a really good investment for Ontario. And so we'd recommend changes to the building code. All right, Annabella, if you had that magic wand, if there was something that you could do to help prepare Ontario for these storms, whether it's in the short term or in the long term, got housing, that's one. Is there something else?

Can I wave it and get two wishes? Sure, for sure. Go for it. The first one would be building away from flood plains. So let's no longer build our infrastructure homes and roads in the areas that are meant to flood. With that being said, also let's invest more in our nature-based solutions. So that would be my wish number two. So as I mentioned, you know, wetlands are doing the job for us. There's so much cheaper for us to maintain.

It's natural. We love to be around them. We can build walks around them so that people can use them as well. And they absorb about 38% of floodwaters when they go through urban areas and we have those wetlands available. So those would be my two things that I would ask for. All right. I think that's a great point to leave off on.

Greg, Annabella, really appreciate it. Thank you so much. Thanks for having me. Thank you. I'm Jayne. Thanks for watching The Rundown. What do you want to know more about? Email us at rundown at tbO.org or reach out to me on social media.

And as always, let us know what you think. Until then, I will see you tomorrow.