The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - Is the Middle East Headed for All-Out War?

Episode Date: October 10, 2024

One year after Hamas's attack on Israel, the war in Gaza shows no signs of stopping. Now following Israel's incursion into Lebanon, and Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel, is the Middle East on the verge of a full-blown regional war? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One year after Hamas's attack on Israel, the war in Gaza shows no signs of stopping. Now following Israel's incursion into Lebanon and Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel, is the Middle East on the verge of a full-blown regional war. Here with their analysis, we welcome in the nation's capital, Besma Momani, professor of political science at the University of Waterloo, and Senior Fellow at CG, the Center for International Governance Innovation. And with us here in studio, Arif Lallani, former Canadian Ambassador to Afghanistan, Jordan, Iraq,

and the United Arab Emirates. He's also a Senior Advisor at Strategy Corp. And John Allen is here, former Canadian Ambassador to Israel and Senior Fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. And gentlemen, it's good to have you two here for the first time. And Bessma, great to see you again, although, how do I say this? I wish it were on a happier occasion, let's put it that way. Let's stipulate off the top here that people who may be watching this at 8 or 11 o'clock

on television tonight, We are not live. We are taping this during the course of our day. And therefore, it's possible events may pass us by. So we put that on the record in case our discussion looks hopelessly out of date by 8 o'clock tonight. But I don't think it will be. Besma, to you first. Even before the incursion into Lebanon by Israel,

there were concerns in Israel that Hamas had really stretched the Israeli military pretty thinly. The economy in Israel is facing some sharp challenges. There are protests in Israel to bring the hostages home. In your view, to what extent can Israel take on a second front in this war in its north against Hezbollah in Lebanon? Well, it's all a matter of at what cost. I mean, can it is a bigger question, but really it's a matter of at what cost. And I think there's a lot of worrying signs here. You know, especially after

Netanyahu last night said something I think that really stood out. It was effectively a warning to the Lebanese people saying, you know, get rid of Hezbollah or you will become like Gaza. And I can't help but feel that today Lebanese are waking up to feeling that this was a threat. And again, it may not have been meant that way, but it surely was perceived that way. And that is really ominous. So it's all about at what cost. I mean, if he is foreboding what, you know, what happened in Gaza to happen in Lebanon, and we've only had a million people displaced in Lebanon, we know that people in Gaza have been displaced many times, I think at this point, 10 times for some people. We're looking at 41,000

dead in Gaza already. Is that the cost? Are we talking about the reality that we have 66% of all buildings in Gaza destroyed. Is that the cost? I mean, it all has to be part of this broader conversation about Netanyahu has constantly talked about tactics, but has never had a strategy. This is not going to decapitate or bring the end of these organizations. There will be a new leader brought forward. And yes, they've gotten through a number of leaders of Hezbollah. But is Hezbollah over?

It's not over. It's a deep, deep organization. I don't think you can say by removing its leader, just like Hassan Nasrallah's previous predecessor, who was removed and he came in force, it's just going to continue because there's a core element of this issue, which is they're there to fight the reality that Israel continues an occupation, both in Gaza and in the West Bank.

And that is the broader issue at hand that, unfortunately, no political leaders are investing in, and Netanyahu has a personal, personal political interest in this war continuing, which is the really sad reality. I gather you're referring to the fact that if the war ends, suddenly he's under charges on corruption, and therefore that process goes forward. Arif, how about you? How do you see this potential second front in a full-blown Middle Eastern war? Look, I think Bessma's right. I think Israel is perfectly capable of having a two-front war.

The question is the cost. And the question is, will this destroy Hamas and Hezbollah for good? And I think you don't destroy these types of organizations in the war. You actually destroy them in the peace. And what I mean by that is they will not come back. The ideology will fade if in peacetime

there's actually a reconstruction and a real change on the ground. Well, that raises the question about whether there is a partner for peace at the moment. Well, I think it's very difficult. It's very difficult first because Prime Minister Netanyahu has not laid out his objectives. We know his sort of war fighting objectives, difficult first because Prime Minister Netanyahu has not laid out his objectives.

We know his sort of war fighting objectives but we don't know what is expected at the end. And I think that is the problem that Israelis will face because once the war stops and I think it will and I think that there is a timeline for that. I've said previously I think Prime Minister Netanyahu is trying to establish as many facts on the ground as possible before the November 5th election in the United States.

Regardless of who wins, I think Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to have established as much as he can in terms of territory. So I think that's a timeline. We'll come back to that international angle in a second, the American angle on that as it were. Let me ask the question from the other side of the coin to you, John, and that is, Hezbollah has for about a year been lobbing bombs into northern Israel.

It's resulted in 50,000 or more Israelis having to flee from their homes because their government can't ensure their security. What exactly do we expect Israel to do under those circumstances? Well it's a good question. I agree with both Bessma and Arif that there's a problem of tactics versus strategy. On the other hand, Israel has to defend its people. The question is how do they go about doing it? Yes, they had to respond to October 7th.

The Americans told them to do it one way, don't repeat what we did in Iraq and Afghanistan. Targeted, don't alienate the people. In Lebanon, getting rid of, frankly, Nasrallah, who's responsible for assassinating a Lebanese prime minister, for the port explosions, for aiding the Syrian leader in massacring his people. That was not a bad thing. And frankly, you've got a body, a non-state actor with one of the largest militaries in the world operating in Lebanon as a political party and as a military

while it's actually responding to the needs of Iran. Its whole purpose there was to be a deterrent against any attack that Israel might do on Iran. How's that going? This is, yeah, well, we'll see. But I would say one other thing that your original question of can Israel handle this? It's not just a two-front war. It's now a potential activity with Iran.

The West Bank is potentially exploding. So a four-front war exploding. So a forefront war. A forefront war. They're also dealing with Hezbollah in Iraq and in Syria, who are attacking. And they've got the Houthis. A seven-front war. A seven-front war.

And as many people say, it's the war within. And as Besma alluded to, it's dealing with the Palestinian question that is the real threat to Israel. Arif, let me, you know, there are times when Israel wants international support when it does things. Does this look to you like one of those times?

Well, clearly not. I think the international community and all of Israel's allies, including the United States, at every turn have told the prime minister to go one way and he's gone the other way. So I think the prime minister in Israel has decided he is going to take this as an opportunity, as he's put it, to change the balance of power in the region. And I see very few red lines from the international community that actually matter. I think there's one final red line, which is what happens with Iran.

I think that is really the only country that has the capability to really inflict real damage on Israel. As you look, Besma, at the, well, I was going to ask Hezbollah versus Hamas, but the way John's put it, it's actually, maybe it's a list of seven potential adversaries right now. What's the heaviest lift out there as far as you can tell for Israel? Well, different lifts for different tactics, if you will. So certainly, I think if what we're seeing and all in all all indications show that we're looking at a ground war, the incursion into Lebanon has already started. So in terms of boots on the ground, that battle with with Hezbollah fighters is going to be fierce.

Remember here, this is a battle-hardened group that inflicted enormous terror in Syria. They have a lot of experience in guerrilla tactics. So we're going to see a really heavy cost for the Israeli troops in Lebanon because a ground incursion is where I think not just going back to the point that I really want to highlight here is the extremists and Netanyahu's cabinet wants to take this. They do want and by many accounts of some of the indications that I've seen, they want to occupy Southern Lebanon. They want to actually, they're talking about resettling settlers to southern Lebanon, south of the Latani River. I mean, those, just yesterday there was a social media post of an Israeli soldier that hiked up an Israeli flag in southern Lebanon, which of course got condemnation from, you know, his senior leaders in the military, but the optics are there. There is a sense and feeling that in Lebanon

that we are the next Gaza. And not if you will, because of all of the horror that the war in Gaza's inflicted on the civilians there is going to ensure that Hezbollah's so determined to fight. That ground war is going to be brutal. And you can't win it from the air. Remember here, that's what the Israelis have effectively tried to do in the case of Gaza, you know, 2,000 pound

bombs to just obliterate the entire peninsula. But again, it's not going to win until it goes into that kind of, you know, ground war in the case of Lebanon. And that is going to be fierce. In the case of Iran, certainly it has a large army. They're not going to send their soldiers. They are using their proxies in all of the places that John effectively noted. All of these so-called axis of resistance are actually invoking their forces, but they're not going to devote a single Iranian soldier to this. This is the sad part, is everybody's fighting this proxy war at the expense of other people's civilians in this case in Lebanon.

In the case of Iran, they also don't have a very strong air force. You know, this is what one thing that international sanctions have effectively done is really to prevent them from having a really meaningful air force. But they do have a great capability in terms of a great deal of ballistic missiles and other long-range and short-range missiles that I think will be very, very damaging to Israel. The Iron Dome and many other sort of defense systems are well equipped, but it just takes one errant bomb, as we've seen, or missile I should say, as we've seen just recently

in the past attack, to inflict damage. So there is going to be a lot of civilians throughout the region that are going to pay the price for, frankly, incompetence of so many leaders. Let me circle back to John on something he said a moment ago, and that is you said that after October 7th happened last year, you knew there would be an Israeli response and there needed to be an Israeli response and there needed to be an Israeli response. Iran, what are we, 180, 190 ballistic missiles were dropped on Israel from Iran not that long ago. There has yet to be an official Israeli response to that, should there be? Well, should there be? There will be one Israel feels a

necessity to. This is not the first 180 missiles. This is the second set of missiles sent to Israel from Iran, the first set in April. So unquestionably, Israel feels in this tit for tat that it has to respond. What will that look like? Well, the United States, Joe Biden's going to be speaking to Bibi Netanyahu today.

He's going to be telling him, please don't go after the nuclear. And frankly, Bibi, you can't go after the nuclear without us. So that's not going to happen. He's going to say, don't do oil infrastructure because I don't want to see the price of oil screaming up just before an election on November 5th. So what does that leave? It's going to leave ballistic missile launchers, weapons depots, assassinating some Iranian leaders. It's hard to know, but it's quite clear

that Israel's got pretty good intelligence in Iran. They were able to assassinate Ismail Haniyeh in a guest house in Iran. So I'm sure they've got some possibilities. Let's just hope that this remains a tit for tat and doesn't accelerate into a broader regional war. I mean, Arif, if you are the Israeli decision makers and you are looking for a pretext to go after the Iranian nuclear capability which they have claimed they've wanted to do for as long as a decade now I guess. 180 ballistic missiles being dumped on your population is not a bad pretext.

So what do you anticipate? Well I anticipate there's going to be another response. I mean keep in mind Iran would say look this second round of ballistic missiles was in response to your assassination of a number of our people. So the problem is when does tit-for-tat stop? I do think though that Prime Minister Netanyahu isn't particularly concerned about the electoral success of the Democratic Party in the United States. So the leverage of please don't bomb oil sites in the United States. So the leverage of please don't bomb oil sites because it'll hurt me, I'm not sure

that's going to carry much weight with the current Israeli government. So you think Netanyahu wants Trump to win the election? Well, I think he wants, as I've said, to gain as much as he can before that election outcome is out. And so I think that means doing as much damage to Iran's capabilities as he can. So I think that means doing as much damage to Iran's capabilities as he can. So I think everything is probably on the table for Prime Minister Netanyahu.

And I'm hoping that people are also counseling Iran not to retaliate. I think Iran has never had it in its strategic interest to have a wider war or to really have a war with Israel directly. I do want to let me follow up with Besm on that because there you know there's an interesting school of thought out there that says part of Israel's response to Iran for the ballistic missile attack or for other things as well the American election cycle will factor into that decision. And who Israel wants to become the next president of the United States may

have an impact on what they decide to do. How do you see that playing itself out? Yeah. And, you know, I think it's, it's a bit convoluted. Certainly. I think there's a lot of indication that Netanyahu and Trump from previous, you know, the, from the first time Trump served, had a very good relationship. And clearly, I mean, I'll just point out that Netanyahu in all of his

advertisement throughout Israel for the last election used tons of posters of him and Trump. And the message was, you know, I have a really close relationship with President Trump. So I think he is really hoping that Trump wins. But Trump also very interestingly said, you know, this war will end on day one that I take control, which, you know, again, one can say is just his bombastic way of speaking, but there was something very interesting about that because I think either way, if Trump does win, you know, he doesn't effectively take control to January, that will give Netanyahu that runway

to sort of do as he pleases. I think that's the message that he's been getting. And of course, Biden, from all of the indications that we see in terms of the American media, and just yesterday Bob Woodward, who we all know is a respected journalist, wrote a very interesting piece for CNN about how Biden called Netanyahu a liar with some expletives, said that Israel is on the cusp of becoming a rogue state.

I mean, it was a very interesting piece that, you know, would were noted. There's so many of these, you know, arguments out there and articles in American press about how Biden is really frustrated and is trying so hard to contain Netanyahu and Netanyahu isn't listening to him. And yet, I think one of the things that we need to zoom out here is that when it's delivering $18 billion in weapons to the Israelis and continuing to supply it in the case of Iran today, it does not see that it's fighting just a war with the Israelis. This is the part that's really scary in terms of expansion is that they do feel

that this is now really a war with the Americans and that is really scary in terms of expansion is that they do feel that this is now really a war with the Americans. And that is really problematic. That's where we have to worry that we are seeing the entire region descend into a place of proxy battle between the Americans and the Iranians, and nobody wins. And certainly when we talk about proxy means that the Iranians and the Americans are not paying the price. This is really important. It's all the other civilians across the region, whether they're Lebanese, Israeli, Palestinian, Yemenis, et cetera. That's the part that I think is the most dangerous.

And Biden, I think, wants to frankly, go out on a high of having supported Netanyahu to his very end. He knows he, you know, is looking for a legacy. This man is committed. He's a hard ideologue when it comes to the state of Israel from day one, probably because of his Cold War experience. But nevertheless, I don't think he's going to be tough on Netanyahu till the very end. And that means Kamala Harris, who I think would be tougher.

You know, she's really tried to stay away from this issue completely because she's got a very tough election in key writings where Arab Americans might be very impactful, particularly in Michigan. But the reality is her silence on this has also spoken volumes and she's seen as being complicit with what, you know, Biden has committed to. So it's a huge conundrum. I'll just say that American politics is absolutely, as the reef noted, absolutely intertwined in all of this being played out the way it is. Okay, that's the American scene, John. I want you to bring us home to Canada because, I mean, you can say this, at least the Americans

are involved in this thing, deeply involved in this thing. The Canadian government will have zero impact on whatever happens over there, and yet this has been the focus of some considerable back and forth on the floor of the House of Commons. You've got the leader of the Conservative Party accusing the Foreign Minister of basically being in line with Hamas and anti-Semitic. Do you see any consequences for what's happening in the Middle East playing out in our politics here in Canada?

I see terrible consequences for it. There's already very, very serious polarization in our community. There's polarization between Jews and Muslims. There's polarization within the Jewish community, between progressives and establishment. There's an inability of even rabbis and ministers and imams to get together over October 7. And now you've got a situation where at least one politician and I'll single out Pierre Poliev,

who is trying to use this to win votes. Now, it surprises me a little bit because there are a lot of Lebanese people in this country. And by sticking 100% with Israel and accusing the liberals, frankly, of being anti-Semitic because they've called for a ceasefire or because they've restricted certain weapons is, I think, really quite reprehensible.

I think this isn't good for the country. I know it could be a vote-getter in certain key writings, for example in Toronto, but it's a very dangerous game to play. It's a very Trumpian game to play. Let's divide and conquer and the country is already polarized enough. We don't need more of it. Let me play devil's advocate for a second here. There's only 10 writings in the whole country out of 343, where the Jewish vote is big enough to make a difference in the outcome.

You think Poliev would risk doing what he's doing for 10 writings when he's 23 points ahead already? Yeah. How come? 10 writings are important. And he wants to secure that vote. The Jewish vote's an important one.

And I just don't, I can't understand another reason why he would call a foreign minister anti-Semitic and pro-Hamas. Maybe he believes it. Well, you might, but it's quite a stretch to be calling somebody Pro Hamas in this country when we all, it's been declared a terrorist organization. We prohibit them from coming here

and don't allow any funding. It's a bit of a stretch. Arif, your view on this. Well, I think the polarization exists. I just worry that humanitarian suffering has been politicized by everybody. So I would stick to the facts. Look, it's a fact that 41,000 people have been killed.

The majority of them are innocent civilians. But I don't want to take away from that. But it's a fact that the Hamas sources in Gaza say 41,000 people have been killed. We have to be careful about this. Sure, we do. And it's a fact that journalists aren't allowed in. So we have to rely on the sources that are made available by whoever is controlling the

territory. And I think this is the problem. We can argue about whether it's 41,000, but I think you and I would agree that it's in the tens of thousands. So the point is the tens of thousands of civilians have been killed. I don't think that should be a political statement. We can talk about the strategies of the Israelis or of the terrorist organizations. That's a different matter.

So I do feel that people are trying to politicize this on all sides. I think the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party, the NDP, let's face it, everyone has their minds set on the Canadian domestic electoral timeline whenever that may be. I'm not a politician. I focus on the lives of innocent people, Israelis, Palestinians, Lebanese, and others. And I think if we stick to a humanitarian focus on a humanitarian catastrophe and stick to the politics and strategy on other things, we can resolve this.

Well, let me do something exactly the opposite of what you've just recommended. And again, I'm going to play devil's advocate here. And Besmo, I'll go to you first on this. I remember, and I've just got to be 25 years ago, we had on this network Ed Luttwak, who is, of course, one of the longstanding neoconservative geopolitical analysts.

And I remember the expression he used. And I think most of the guests on the program were really quite taken aback when he said it. He said, every now and then, you need a good clarifying war, because things are unsettled. And you need a clarifying war so that somebody clearly wins, somebody clearly loses, and only then can you make progress. And I think if he were here today, he would say probably what Trump is saying,

which is to say, let the Israelis go in there, let them do what they want to do. Let them win, help them win, and then try and pick up the pieces after that. That's a view that's out there. What's your view on that? Well, you know what I always say, at what cost? And ask the families of the people who've been killed. So the 97 hostages, let's focus on them too, that are still in Gaza, ask their family,

because that's exactly what's happening. Netanyahu has said, I don't care about you and your families. I am going to obliterate Gaza. That's what he's doing. So really, I think we have dehumanized this conflict far enough. And the dehumanization of Palestinians, by the way, is unbelievable. We've talked about them in terms of numbers. I agree with the point about polarization.

Anti-Semitism and anti-Palestinianism in this country is through the roof. We have dehumanized people and I think, you know, war cannot be seen through the lens of just geo-strategy. We have to talk about the people on the ground. The people on the ground are facing the consequences of all of this. This is not just numbers. To say 66% of Gaza is obliterated and then there's no homes. That's families, that's people. And I think we've really dehumanized it and it's really easy from Washington or Ottawa to have that kind of perspective as though this is just some chessboard game in the Middle East, but it's people at the end of the day. No, but I think, let me go to a reef on this. Let me just pick up on that for a second. Let me just say I want to turn it around.

Four years after the Yom Kippur War, Sadat was in the Knesset talking peace. And two years later, there was a peace agreement. There are times when events like this, I'm not following the quote that you talked about, but there are times when events like this can change history. And what I am hoping for is that we will get rid of Netanyahu in another election, and that people in Israel

and in Palestine will realize that, like the Jordanians and the Egyptians have done and like the Saudis are prepared to do, that enough is enough. Okay, but a refi, I'm gonna come back to, again, I'm playing devil's advocate to get these issues on the table. Lutwack would say that visit by Sadat to Jerusalem

could only have happened because the Israeli defense forces were within 50 kilometers of Cairo. It took a clarifying war for Sadat to realize he had no chance of defeating Israel militarily. They had to make peace. Might those circumstances be necessary this time, the utter defeat of one side, before the possibility of peace is even on the table?

Look, I think what's important is the justification of a war is measured in the reconstruction and the rehabilitation at peacetime. And so that begs the question, what are the post-war aims of Prime Minister Netanyahu? And right now, that's not clear. So I think it's very important, as John said, and I think perhaps as you're arguing... I'm not arguing, I'm just presenting it perhaps as you're arguing. I'm not arguing. I'm just presenting it.

As you're presenting as the devil's advocate. Thank you. What happens after? And I think it's about time now that allies suggest to Prime Minister Netanyahu that that needs to be clarified. Other people have talked about World War II and the clarifying outcome of that. The great powers met before the war was over a number of times to decide how the reconstruction and the rehabilitation would take place.

So I think it's really important to look at what will happen after, if the outcome is southern Lebanon being occupied, Gaza being occupied, then there's no strategic change because the Israelis have tried that a number of times. Clearly it hasn't worked. So I think we need to look at one we need to find a moment where this part of the conflict stops, because I'm not sure that you're going to get the kind of decisive victory in Lebanon that perhaps some people think. But I think you need to look at, as John pointed out, what is the essential question that has to be resolved here?

And I think that is the question of how do Palestinians and Israelis live in peace and security for both of them. Just to finish though, before October 7th, Israel had on its doorstep the proposition of peace agreements with the whole region. With Saudi Arabia, it had one with the UAE, it has one with Jordan and with Egypt and Bahrain. And the remaining issue was the Palestinian question. And many people thought that, look,

let's get the agreement with Saudi Arabia. And as part of that agreement, we will do something for the Palestinians. Clearly, that what will we do about the Palestinian issue now is really entwined with the greater regional peace that I think everybody wants. And the final point I'd make is, look, throughout this conflict, the Arab countries

have actually stood by their peace agreements with Israel. So the United Arab Emirates has been very quiet on this in Jordan. And the other thing that I think is really important is Israel is now relying on its Arab peace partners to protect physically Israel. So the Iranian missiles that come have also been shot down by Jordan. Interesting, right? Arab intelligence has actually helped the Israelis.

Okay, I got two minutes left and I want to give one to John and one to Bessma on this. John, civil society, is there any role it can play to move things forward here? Well, certainly within Canada, civil society can play a big role with Muslims, Christians, and Jews trying to understand that both sides see themselves as victims here. Both sides have narratives that are valid, but unfortunately conflict. And that both sides in the end want peace and security. And if the people in Canada realize that and worked together as opposed to grabbing

onto one side and sticking on that side, then we could help things here. In Israel, it's even more important. In Israel, you've got ultra-Orthodox hara-dim who don't want to serve in the army, while the seculars pay the taxes. In Israel, you've got people trying to effect a judicial coup, and hundreds of thousands trying to protect democracy, et cetera, et cetera. So yes, it's important.

I work with an organization that brings Palestinians and Israelis together on the ground. What's it called? It's called Rosanna Canada. A Rosetta N.A. That's right. Okay. And we train Palestinians and Israelis together. We're going to encourage people to go to your website and see more about that.

Besmig, at the last minute for you, if there's one thing I've heard people observe during the course of this whole thing, it is that the prospects for peace will be a lot better if the Netanyahu government were out and Hamas were out as well. There's no way either of those things is going to happen though in the short run, is there? I mean, isn't that the problem? That is the problem, absolutely. And so we need to change something from the bottom up. It's not just the leadership. You're right. I don't think it's going to end tomorrow. Because again, part of the challenge is the polarization in Israel, the

polarization in the Palestinian territories is becoming more and more radicalized. This is a really sad, sad consequence. I think about Vivian Silver and other peaceniks. They're becoming extinct as people. Less and less peaceniks exist throughout Israel. And again, I've heard a number of folks reflect on this on the ground in Israel and Gaza and even in the West Bank, you know, that they don't see how they can have a future with each other, which is just horrendous

because neither are going away. This is the reality. They have had their extremists on both sides basically use all of the tools of terror and horror to basically try to push the other out. They're not going anywhere. Israelis and Palestinians are destined to live together in that small, tiny, tiny piece of territory. We need to find ways of making that happen. And I know it's harder and harder every day that goes by when you are effectively making more and more people extreme. And again, it's happening in both communities.

And that's the sad part, because we need people like Vivian Silver, we need people like John Allen and his counterpart, Barbara Lando and others. We need more of these individuals. And instead we're having more of the extremists take the voice box and increasingly taking the leadership. And that's really, really problematic.

That's Besmo Momani from CG, joining us from the nation's capital. Arif Lalani, former Canadian ambassador to a lot of places in the Middle East. John Allen, former Canadian ambassador to Israel, now with the Munk School of Global Affairs. Good of all three of you to join us on TVO tonight. Many thanks. Thank you, Steve.