The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - What Comes Next for the NDP?

Episode Date: March 25, 2026

As the federal NDP leadership race unfolds, a larger question looms: where does the party stand with Canadians and can its next leader reposition it as a credible alternative? Kim Wright, principal of Wright Strategies and a longtime NDP consultant, and journalist Luke Savage, author of "The Dead Center," examine the stakes of rebuilding the party. Then, Erin Kelly, CEO of Advanced Symbolics Inc., digs into the data to ask whether or not public opinion suggests the NDP is poised for a reset.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hi, I'm Nam Kiwanuka, host and producer of mistreated, a podcast on women's health. There just hasn't been a lot of money put into researching women's health issues. If women are in pain, it's hysteria, it's an emotional issue. And this is what you see consistently. Women's health is not taken seriously. How did we get here? Find us wherever you get your podcasts, and be sure to check out the video version of the show on the TVO Today YouTube channel. Hope to see you then. When TVO first went on air in 1970, the idea that public television could have a positive impact on learning was visionary. From beloved kid shows that sparked the joy of learning, pioneering must-see favorites exploring society and culture,

and series that made navigating life in Ontario a little easier, TVO's commitment to lifelong learning has stood the test of time. Renew your support now and help preserve this legacy. Visit TVO.com.me slash 2026 renewal to make your donation today. Obviously, I know this night is a disappointing night for new Democrats. Do you remember that speech? That was then-NDP leader, Jugmeet Singh, on election night last year. It also turned out to be his resignation speech. It wasn't really a surprise he decided to step down after eight years. The federal NDP had just gone from 24 seats to 7, their worst result ever. And the losses haven't

stopped there. Earlier this month, Nunavit MP Lori Idlout crossed the floor to the Liberals. Now the party is at a crossroads. This weekend, members will choose a new leader, someone tasked with rebuilding the party. So what does that path back actually look like? We look at the leadership race and at what comes next for the NDP. Welcome to the rundown. Whoever wins the federal NDP leadership race will end up with a tough assignment, building the party back up and proving it's a clear alternative for Canadians. Kim Wright is the principal and founder of Wright Strategies and a longtime NDP consultant. And Luke Savage is a journalist and author of the Dead Center, Reflections on Liberalism and Democracy after the end of history. Great to have you both on the show. Let's start. Before we

even look at the NDP leadership convention this weekend. I want to have a look back. In the last federal election, 94% of Canadian voters said no to the NDP. So Kim, I have to ask, does the NDP matter to Canadians? Oh, absolutely, because if you looked a few months before that, we were well on track for quite a number of seats. What Canadians were looking for from the new Democrats, in particular in the last minority parliament were things like the dental care program, which has helped thousands and thousands of Canadians and have access to dental care. And it is mattered to Canadians, the voice that the new Democrats have had in minority parliaments, in majority parliaments, and frankly, in a lot of provinces, where were the government? So it absolutely does matter

and we'll get back up there. Frankly, campaigns happen sometimes. And even conservatives went down to two seats with Jean Chalet and Elsie Wayne. So there's always a bounce. Luke, I'll get you in there. Are Canadians simply no longer interested in the NDP? Well, you know, I think it's tried to say

that anything is more relevant than ever. Some little self-conscious in saying that. But truly, I do think the NDP is more relevant than ever at the moment. I say that for two reasons. One, I mean, I think that, you know, I would agree with everything that Kim said for sure. But I think, you know, the liberals are not even really pretending to be a center-left party anymore. So clearly there's even more space than, you know, there's traditionally been for a party like the NDP.

And, you know, its voice and its offer, I think is very important. But the second thing I'd say here is that, you know, when the NDP, or rather its predecessor to the CCF was founded in 1930s, you know, it's not a one-to-one comparison. But I think we're living through a similar time of, you know, quite profound political and economic and geopolitical change. And I think that the moment calls for, you know, a response that, you know, offers the same spirit of radical ambition. So I think in a few different senses, the NDP is certainly relevant. I will talk a little bit about the opportunities a little later. But Kim, I do have to ask, there has been a lot of soul searching in the NDP leadership race about what has gone wrong over the last decade or so. What's your answer to that question? Well, there's a lot that's

gone right, but ultimately the party, and this comes in every party, are you looking to be a debate society, or are you looking to govern and make real massive change to people's daily lives? And that is always the question that parties ask themselves in particular new Democrats. And part of the pushback that we saw in places like Northern Ontario and Windsor, Prairies, and frankly across the country was the New Democrats spent too much time being that debate society, that urbanists talk about all the isms versus what actually mattered and real solutions and conveyed in a way that impacted people's lives. So we needed our swagger back, but we also just needed to talk to people.

where they're at. And for far too long, we've been getting into that debate society and mindset. I think the interim leader of the NDP, Don Davies, would agree with that. Of course, he had said in the summer that the NDP had focused too much on identity politics. And Luke, he said that we're not talking about the real issues, not what most working class people are struggling with right now. What do you think of that? Well, I'm going to, I think, respectfully disagree with Kim a little bit here, because I haven't seen the NDP be a debate society for the past 10 or 15 years. You know, I think instead what we've seen is a lot of centralization in the leaders' office. We've, you know, there's been, I think, a fairly direct communication style from the party, often for the better.

You know, we keep hearing, we've heard a lot in the context of leadership race, you know, the NDP has become very kind of academic or, you know, As Kim said, there's a lot of, you know, debating over isms and stuff. I just, I just really haven't seen this. And, you know, I have criticisms of Jigmeet Singh, his leadership, certainly, and lots of praise for it in other aspects as well. But I don't think that even people who are quite critical of him would ever accuse him or of the party over the last 10 years or so of speaking in a, you know, in anything but quite a bread and butter way.

I mean, I think that's generally what we've seen. I think the problems go beyond problems of branding or communications or anything like that. Cam, did you want to respond? Yeah, I mean, when you start talking about things like bread and butter issues, there is a bit of a debate society aspect to that, right? I grew up in a small town in rural southern Ontario that was very much impacted over the years of trade policies. My mother ultimately was able to get a job in a factory making furnaces, but before that, oh boy, it was a hard life. that we had growing up. And, you know, thanks to community, you know, we were able to thrive. Thanks to the programs that happened in Canada and in Ontario, I now get to sit here as someone

who runs a business. And, you know, how do we talk to people where they're at? And there is this notion of too much of the placards and too much of the isms and too much of this debate society. and not enough of where people are. You know, we've gotten away from that. And frankly, some of the election results have shown that. And too much of an urbanism isn't always a great thing when we can't explain to people in the language that they're living what things are. You know, it's interesting.

Jack Layton used to say, at least look to see what movies are coming out these days, understand pop culture and pop culture references, being able to communicate with folks. And we're not very good at that sometimes as new Democrats. So I welcome the new versions of that. Okay, speaking of new versions, well, let's shift our attention to the NDP leadership race. Right now, it is a three-horse race.

You have the outsider Longshoreman Rob Ashton, insider from a dynastic family, Avi Lewis, whose father, of course, was Ontario NDP leader and whose grandfather was the federal leader of the NDP. And then to round it out, you have someone who is a sitting MP, Heather McPherson, representing Edmonton-Strathcona. Luke, what do these three choices represent for the future of the NDP? Well, I mean, I think, as we've seen during the race, and I think all the candidates have been keen to emphasize, there's plenty on which they agree. I think there's been a number of things

that have come out in the race that I think are at stake and over which there's less agreement. One, and I think you've seen it, you know, come out rather politely here in the conversation so far is perhaps competing diagnoses or different diagnoses about what exactly has gone wrong. You know, some people think it's just a communications problem. I wouldn't disagree at all with everything Kim said. I think, you know, you can always communicate better. And sometimes the left is not very good at communicating. But I think the problems personally go a little deeper than that. I think secondly, one of the other big things that's come out is,

You know, can the model, the electoral model used by the NDP, particularly west of Ontario, can that and should that be scaled up to the federal level? There's some, you know, disagreement about that as well. I think just thirdly quickly, you know, there's a disagreement and a very legitimate disagreement about, you know, to what extent can you mobilize people around policy? The Lewis campaign has taken one view, which is that you go for big policies. you communicate them very, very directly. Big policies that are easy to explain. And they've certainly borrowed, I think, from the Zoran Mamdani example there. You know, others don't feel that way.

There's, you know, feeling that you can't really, you know, voters are not as interested in policy. You don't animate them that way. So I think all of these things have really come out in the race. And people often disagree about them. Kim, you have endorsed Rob Ashton. Luke, you've endorsed Avi Lewis. I am curious, Kim, for a party with such poor electoral results, why not choose someone like Heather McPherson,

a candidate who's actually won, let alone in Alberta, of all places? So look, I've looked at all the candidates and have had conversations with some of them, most of them, over the years. One of the things that I've looked at, and it turned out I was in Burnaby on election night, as dismal as that night was, and happen to have an opportunity to talk to a guy at the event turned into being Rob Ashton. We talked at length about, you know, the dark days of the party.

How do we rebuild? What does that look like? And then as I have watched Rob Ashton's campaign unfold, there has been that swagger. There has been that move away from the cosplay politics that Pierre Pahliev and Doug Ford have definitely done around workers. This is a guy who has not only been on those lines doing the work, but also negotiating agreements and how do you move those things forward? How do you bring people along in the conversation, help people where you can, protect them where you can, and move forward?

I look at other campaigns who haven't necessarily, you know, done the work. And, well, you know, Mr. Lewis is part of the, of a day. dynasty in some of those very dark days as we were rebuilding the party either federally or here in Ontario, there wasn't that like, hey, how do we put the shoulder to the grindstone and fix this? Luca, I want to get your take. You talk about communication and the struggles for the NDP party there. Well, you know, if you have an MP that's already in the house, it makes it a lot easier to

communicate what you need. Why not go for someone like Heather McPherson? I have a lot of respect for Heather McPherson in particular, the work she's done, the leadership she's shown on the question on the issue of Palestine in the House of Commons. She's very much been a leader there. But I think that for the NDP especially, right, you know, the criterion for who can be considered a legitimate or viable leadership candidate, it can't be that they have a seat in the House of Commons, right?

Because, you know, the NDP is. He wins a lot fewer seats historically, right, than other parties. And, you know, Jack Layton was defeated multiple times before he was elected. It's been true of many people who've gone on to play very important roles in the party, either as MPs or indeed as party leaders. So I don't think that that, you know, it might be an important consideration. It's certainly not the only one. Luke, stick with me here.

You know, when we talk about progressive policies, this is in the wheelhouse of the ND Yet when we're talking about, we can talk about, you know, the wealth tax, for example. They pull, it pulls really well. Yet there is a disparity when it comes to the NDP party. Help me understand where the disconnect is there. I think there's a few things to be said about this. I mean, the first is that, you know, just because things pull well, you know, that does not always mean that, you know, voters don't just only look at things that, you know, look at their preferences. and say, well, I'd like a wealth tax, sure.

So which party supports a wealth tax? It's obviously more complicated than that. In the case of the NDP, right, you know, the federal NDP has to deal with the, you know, menace of so-called strategic voting. So that's a real problem that it faces. Like, you know, anyone who's canvas for the NDP knows that you will often meet voters who say, well, hey, I agree with you guys. I'm basically everything.

But, you know, I got to vote for the liberals because I'm so, you know, afraid of Pierre Paulie ever or Donald Trump, right, as the case may be. So that's, that's one thing. The second thing I'd say here is that, you know, the NEP has to be able to convince people that the alternatives it's offering are actually possible. And I think there's kind of an overriding cynicism and a well-founded cynicism, a skepticism from, you know, the broad electorate that certain things can actually happen because people haven't experienced this, right? People haven't, you know, previous generations that may have lived through the creation of Medicare or the establishment of the welfare state. You don't have to explain to them that it's possible for the government to do

these things. Kim, the Conservative Party of Canada has been able to bring in many working class votes. And in general, right-wing populism has been able to tap into those grievances of that working class. Is there an opportunity here for the NDP and the progressive left to tap in to that populist anger? Oh, absolutely. But more importantly, it's about how do you communicate to people in a way that makes you feel, makes everything seem very authentic. And it has to be authentic. It has to be that swagger I talk about. Have you had that lived experience? So when you look at, you know, a Rob Ashton versus Pierre Pahliav's cosplay where he hasn't frankly even taken the price tag, off those work boots he bought to try to pretend he's a working guy.

You know, it is a clear dichotomy of the two. What is interesting to me is when we started this leadership campaign, there was this, oh, we're going to be in a federal election in mere moments. Maybe we won't even get to the end of the NDP leadership. That frankly hasn't been true in the way that the attrition has worked, the parliament version of Red Rover, Red Rover, you know, we are not going to the polls federally anytime soon. So that leader, whenever they're elected this weekend,

has that opportunity to go and build up those riding associations, find those star candidates, showcase their sparkle and swagger, and learn from folks like Wob Canoe about how to build that party to a guy, governing stance and how to make people believe that both you should be getting towards government, but also that you have a valuable voice in the House of Commons. You know, it's never easy to build a political party and build back a political party. But, you know, when we look at the examples like Ed Broadbent or Jack Layton, oh boy, can it be done?

And I'm excited about what the potential of that is going forward. Building back, let's talk on that. Luke, does the NDP need to return to its populist roots? I think so. I mean, I think, you know, we don't need a literal return. I think, you know, if the NDP were to sort of re-adopt the Regina manifesto or something like that or communicate and campaigning the way they did in 1930s, clearly that wouldn't make sense. But I think the roots of the NDP very much are, you know, socialist and radical and populist.

And I think that's where it should remain grounded. And I think we really just need to do the modern version of that. You know, I also think, broadly speaking, you know, I hear, I think Kim and I would agree. And I certainly agree with Rob Ashton. The NDP needs to be a working class party. I mean, its roots are working class as well. I also think, though, today the working class is a lot more heterogeneous than it used. used to be. It's changed a lot since the 1930s. So it includes not only industrial workers,

though, of course, they're a hugely important part of its coalition. And again, I agree with what Rob Ashton has argued there. But the working class, right, also includes lots of other unionized workers. It includes white-collar workers. It includes a huge majority of workers who are not members of unions, are not members of political organizations. And, you know, may not even be voting come election time. So the NEP needs to be able to speak to those people as well. And channels came up earlier in the conversation, the legitimate sense of grievance. People have speak to that, speak to that grievance, speak to that anxiety channel anger constructively where it's possible to do that. And I think left populism is what we need in order to do that.

I think when we talk about when we use phrases like manifestos, it tends to make people not want to come along for the ride with new Democrats. That is that urbanism, debate, society language I talked about earlier. And when we need to talk about things like even changing the language from social justice to community building, that allows people to come away and come with us without feeling like the new Democrats are talking down to them once again. And that's the real, that's the real schism that we continue to. have within the party. Those who want to be the debate society and talk in very large language

versus those, the language that we hear when we're at Canadian Tire. And that doesn't mean you dumb down policies, but you talk to people in a way that matters. And the moment we, we start talking as new Democrats of Regina manifestos or leap manifestos or any other manifestos, you have lost the plot and you've lost Canadians. And that's what we've said. scene. Okay, so can I, can I say, can I say two things very, very quickly? I mean, to be fair, Kim, when I, when I said manifesto, I was precisely springing it up to say, we shouldn't, we shouldn't do that, right? We shouldn't be talking in the way that we did in the 1930s. That's the first thing. Secondly, I mean, you know, we're not a Canadian tire right now, right? We're having a,

we're having a discussion on TVO. So I don't think we need to always be communicating in that, you know, very direct way. And if the two of us were canvassing together right now, I would not be suggesting, you know, I would be speaking differently. Let's put it that way. All right, we are going to have to leave it there. Luke, Kim, really appreciate it. Thank you so much for your insights. Thank you. Cheers. All right, so we've just heard about the NDP leadership contest and the stakes, but where does the party stand today with Canadians? And what are they looking for from the party? Aaron Kelly is the CEO of Advanced Symbolics Inc. And she joins us on the line.

How are you doing, Aaron? Great. All right. Well, Polly has got some data for us about the NDP. Let's look into it. The NDP got 6% of the vote in the previous federal election. Where do the things stand right now with the party? Well, it's not much different.

I suppose you'd call it a little bit of an improvement. We're seeing them at around 9% today. And the conservatives and liberals in a state, statistical tie at 44%. I think with this party, I think what's most interesting is who is supporting them, who's behind them? Help us understand. Who are the people who are supporting the NDP right now? It's interesting. I mean, the NDP has historically been seen as a party of the working class, but their base has actually changed quite dramatically. They've virtually lost the working class.

And today we see that the NDP is really appealing more to that, highly educated upper middle class contingency. So we're seeing doctors and teachers, artists, journalists, and some municipal workers who have stayed with the NDP. And it's really interesting when we look at the working class that have stayed with the NDP, we see a really, really clear delineation.

So if you're an auto worker or a steel worker, it used to be that your conflicts are with management. They were domestic, so to speak, and people looked to the NDP at that time. But today, these workers, they see their challenges being more international, right? With tariffs, with Trump. And they've seen this bigger economic shift in, you know, throughout the last decade that they see themselves being threatened more by macroeconomic forces.

But some municipal workers like bus drivers and things like that, teachers still have conflict with management. Doctors are having battles with provincial governments. That's management. So those types of union workers are still with the NDP or some have moved to the NDP, but the ones who see themselves of having more macroeconomic issues have moved to the conservatives. We have heard over and over again from different NDP leadership candidates that the party needs to return to its working class roots. But what does Polly have to say to that? Doesn't seem like it's going to be that easy. Can they do it? No. No. No. And for two reasons. Number one, this group is already being well represented by the conservatives and they're happy with the conservative leadership.

They like Pierre Paliav. They like Doug Ford. They like Danielle Smith. So these politicians, these leaders are appealing to them. So number one, until there is a dissatisfaction with these leaders, there's no way for somebody else to come in and suddenly pick up what they've spent years developing. The second challenge is that in order to get that demographic, they have to campaign on those issues. And I don't think the NDP can suddenly pivot to criticizing immigrants and things like that without looking inauthentic. I mean, the populist leaders are authentic there. They've been that way. Pure Populist. Pahliav has been a diehard conservative since he was a student, right?

He comes to it authentically, and his criticisms are authentic to him and been consistent. If the NDP suddenly changes their tune to have a whole different platform, they're not going to be seen as authentic. And being authentic is very important to this group, even more so than to other groups. All right. I want to have a look at a breakdown that Pauly made of blue-collar workers versus white-collar workers. Help us understand what are we looking at right now. So you'll see there's two different colored bars. So the gold bars are the white collar workers and what's important to them. What would score political points with them?

And the blue bars are the blue collar workers what they want to hear on the campaign hustings right now. And what does this reveal of the NDP party? Well, they have different priorities. So if you're in the NDP and your constituency is now those white collar workers. So you don't see the green deal here. Tax the rich, it's get rid of tax breaks for the rich, not tax the rich. And there's a very subtle difference there, which you can go into if you like. But they're into youth unemployment.

They want to see fair immigration policies. They're saying, hey, if we need doctors, let's bring in doctors and let them be doctors. Why do we have doctors driving cabs? These are one of the number one things that they want to see is getting the, we're hiring, We're bringing in immigrants for their skills, but we're not utilizing their skills once they get here. They want to see that red tape go away. They want to see a real strategy, especially now with AI. They're concerned about their kids getting jobs and having careers.

So that's what you really want to focus on there. And then getting rid of these loopholes in the tax system. In the blue collar, the number one thing is housing. And they've got this 3 million homes thing that's really popular online. and they want that because they want the jobs that go with it. These are construction workers, plumbers, electricians. Yes, we need housing. It is also going to be a boom to their economy.

And then you have this Canada proud element. This is the flag waving, putting the flag on your car, very proud Canadian. And it's not that white-collar workers aren't proud Canadians. They are, of course, but they're not flag waivers, and it's not something you can campaign on. As the NDP begins to rebuild, what does it have to do, to bring back some of those blue-collar workers they have lost to the conservative,

or can they do that? I just don't think they can. If they wanted to, they would have to, so you see here travel visas, you see immigration reform. So in this blue-collar space, they see immigrants as a threat to their jobs. They think Canada needs to severely limit immigration.

And the white-collarer, workers think we need to bring in more skilled immigrants. They want to see us lift the ban on students, for example. They think that's bad. They want to see, they think students are good for the economy, brings talent into the economy. So in some ways, these groups are opposed. And the NDP historically has been, you know, in the last two campaigns, at least, more in that gold bar realm. So for them to completely flip, I don't think they have the constituents that can do that. They don't have the party members that could credibly do that. And it wouldn't be seen as authentic.

And like I said, it's very important to this group. This is part of the reason why Trump is so popular. They see him as somebody who does what he said he would do. So that authenticity is really important to this group. And I don't think the NDP suddenly flipping the messaging would be well received. They'd have to get a very special leader in to be able to do that. Erin Kelly, we are going to have to leave it there. Really appreciate the insights.

Always a pleasure to have you and Polly on the program. Thank you. Great. Thank you. I'm Jay-N. Thanks for watching The Rundown. What do you want to know more about? Email us at the rundown at tbO.org, or you can always reach out to me on social media.

And as always, let us know what you think. Until then, we'll see you tomorrow.