The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - What Will Drive Northern Voters to the Polls?

Episode Date: February 7, 2025

Voters in Ontario will be heading to the polls on February 27. For some, in the north, the trip will certainly be colder - but what else sets their experience apart? What are the ballot issues that could energize people in the region, and are they prepared to send the PCs back to Queen's Park? For insight, we welcome: David Tabachnick, a professor of political science at Nipissing University in North Bay; Wendy Landry, the mayor of Shuniah, a municipality just outside Thunder Bay, and president of the Northwestern Ontario Municipal Association; and Livio Di Matteo, an economist at Lakehead University in Thunder Bay. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I'm Matt Nethersole. And I'm Tiff Lam. From TVO Podcasts, this is Queries. This season, we're asking, when it comes to defending your beliefs, how far is too far? We follow one story from the boardroom to the courtroom. And seek to understand what happens when beliefs collide. Where does freedom of religion end and freedom from discrimination begin? That's this season on Queries in Good Faith,

a TVO original podcast. Follow and listen wherever you get your podcasts. Voters will head to the polls in Ontario three weeks from today. And while there are issues common across the entire province, we also know that the experiences in Northern Ontario can be quite distinctive. Fewer services, longer drives for everything,

not to mention what Trump tariffs could do to the mineral exploration sector there. What are the ballot issues that could energize people in the region? Let's find out from Wendy Landry, Mayor of the Municipality of Shunya. Just outside Thunder Bay, she's also President of the Northwestern Ontario Municipal Association.

Livio Di Matteo, professor of economics at Lakehead University in Thunder Bay. And David Tabachnik, professor of political science at Nipissing University in North Bay. And we're delighted to welcome you three, very thoughtful voices from Northern Ontario, back to our program tonight. I want to go through each of you off the top just to find out what you believe the ballot question is for Northern Ontarians as we approach this 44th General Election Day. Okay, Wendy, start us off. What's the ballot question? Well, the ballot question for us in Northwestern Ontario is that municipalities in Northwestern Ontario are facing growing challenges of delivering essential services while maintaining critical infrastructure and addressing the needs of with our bus with our present fiscal framework and what we're looking for is what commitment will government new government make that will commit to redoing the

fiscal agreement between the municipalities and the provincial government. Very good. Livio, how about you? Well, the overall ballot question that's going to be on everybody's mind, of course, is what the election has evolved into, which is tariffs. However, tariffs are a federal responsibility, and in a sense, it kind of diverts attention from Northern issues, which in this particular election, you know, not

withstanding what municipal concerns might be, I think health care is a major issue here given that the physician and health professional shortage is still fairly substantial. And the highway safety has been rearing its head given the distances that have to be traveled in this region, given there's been a large number of transport accidents with highways shut down for you know half a day or a day. So I think those will probably front and center and then there's the perennial issues of economic growth and development but those pretty much vary across the north depending on where you are, because Northern Ontario is not terribly homogeneous in terms of its interests, although there are similarities and we tend to think Northern Ontario is this

one sort of large block. There's the Northeast, there's the Northwest, there's the North of 50 or the far north. Within that, there's the urban and rural north, there's the Indigenous north and the non-Indigenous north, the Francophone north. I mean, there's the urban and rural north, there's the indigenous north and the non-indigenous north, the francophone north. I mean there's an awful lot of norths given the amount of geography that there is and so in a sense each of these sub-regions will have its own interests. Well that's a great point and I think people south of the French River need to know, need to remember that northern Ontario is not only massive but it is also distinctive in its different regions.

So thank you for putting that on the record. David, how about over to you? Well, I think my colleagues on the panel here have covered quite a bit. I would say just as sort of a broad-ballot question, it would be long-term investment. What we need in Northern Ontario is not just investment in services or just resource investment, but long-term infrastructure investment. And I think this is kind of what the Ford government has attempted to do with a few of their projects related to a new supply line for batteries related to critical minerals, and then of course the building of electric vehicles in Ontario. The problem with that, of course, is the biggest customer for those vehicles is United States.

And with the new administration, a lot of those plans seem to be brought into question. The subsidy on electric vehicles in the States has been lifted. And then of course this tariff threat may make everything much much more expensive as far as developing this critical mineral sector and the battery supply chain starting in northern Ontario. Mayor Landry there has been I would say a decent amount of talk about the early slash snap election call of Doug Ford's south of the French River. How about north of the French River? Much talk about it up there? No, I wouldn't say that there's a lot of, I mean there has been some discussion,

but the minute we have a chat about why Doug Ford's government called this election, I think is understandable for most people in here in the Northwest. Obviously people don't like to see the money spent on election that's early, but when we talk about aligning the Ontario government with the four-year term of the President in the United States, people tend to say, oh, okay, that makes sense. So that's been really the general conversation that I've been having with folks is, you know, I don't think people get too excited about elections, speaking, but when they're early they wonder why and I think that aligning with what's happening south of the border

is a good argument for having a selection. David, I see you nodding your head on that. Do you agree? Well, I think it's certainly not at the top of everybody's mind. I mean, again, things like health care and education, affordability, these are the issues, of course, that Northerners, as all Ontarians, are concerned about. But I do think that the rationale from the people I've talked to is not clear. He called this election before the tariffs were announced.

The election campaign is going on during this period of time where there is no tariffs and there may never be tariffs. So the whole claim that we need an election to give Ford a mandate to fight these tariffs, I don't think makes sense to anyone. Whether they will pay a price at the polls, we'll have to see. Sure. Livio, how about you? I mean one of the things we hear down here is that you know you say you need a mandate to fight the Trump tariffs. You're only two and a half years into a majority government. So you've got two thirds of the seats already.

Isn't that mandate enough? What are you hearing on that? Well, not hearing much at all. As has been noted, the election has been called, but there hasn't been much talk. Things are pretty quiet. The issues remain. Elections go and come, but you know, the issues in the North always seem to be about the same.

So the question then is, what is the election about? And I mean, the election is about securing a four-year mandate at a time when I suppose the government perceives that the odds are in its favour. And you know, is the election necessary to fight tariffs? Probably not. Tariffs trade policy technically should be speaking as a federal prerogative. That's what the federal government should be doing.

The premiers are usually pretty quick to tell the federal government that they should stay in their lane when it comes to federalism. But we have a federal government that's been in a fairly weak state. And so now you have all the premiers doing all kinds of things, flying down to Mar-a-Lago or announcing their own policies.

And so it's a bit of a diversion. I mean, if the Americans had crossed the border and seized Pele Island, I mean, the premier could have done a Margaret Thatcher and dispatched the OPP to take it back and made it an election issue, I suppose. That'd be our Falkland Islands, eh? That's right. It's the Falkland Islands all over again. The empire strikes back. The first thing I assume that a lot of voters will do on election day when they get ready to mark their ballots, Your Worship, is to say, did these guys keep the promises they made two and a half years ago to Northern Ontario?

And if we look at those metrics, do they have a good or a medium or a not so good story to tell? Well, it's interesting because I think that, you know, from a Northern Ontario, from a Northwestern Ontario Municipal Association perspective, we have a really good relationship with the Ford government. We've had a lot of influx of funding come to the area that we haven't previously seen in a lot of ways. We've had different types of conversations. We've had different relationships with this government. So I think that when we talk about if they've met the needs, I think we're still missing

on when we talk about homelessness, when we talk about infrastructure, when we talk about healthcare and generally when we talk about the needs, specific needs and the unique needs of Northwestern Ontario, it's an interesting conversation because we're very, very different from the rest of the province in that we don't have the ability to access funding to meet some of these services and some of these services we talk about, you know, policing costs in Canora, for example, were nine million dollars last year. We're talking about costs to levies that are rising in our small communities that aren't able to sustain themselves with the small populations that we have in our smaller communities that aren't able to sustain themselves with the small populations

that we have in our smaller communities and our rural communities. So there's still room for some improvement, even though we've seen an influx of dollars come into the region. There's still concerns and things that need to be done. And it's interesting conversation because the conversations I've been having in an election, are people voting loyalty to the party or are they voting for the candidate that they feel will bring the biggest voice to the province and to the provincial level?

And so that's an interesting conversation too. You have your people that are loyal to colours and loyal to parties and then you have individuals that people really believe in can make a difference. Well that takes me nicely to David because of course you've got one of the most senior cabinet ministers in your riding, Vic Fidelity, who is sort of Mr. go out there and find some jobs and investment for Ontario minister. One of the things that I know Minister Fidelity has been proud of is the announcement to bring back the Northlander train. I wonder how impressively or not that is playing in your part of the province.

Well, there's certainly been a lot of announcements around the Northlander. The liberals got rid of it in 2012. They argued it wasn't financially stable, that there wasn't enough ridership. So what Vic Fedeli has done as minister, what the PC government has done is invest in renewing the lines, getting contracts to build new stations. I believe rail cars are purchased, if not also built. However, not a single train has left the station yet. And the longer term question is, will they take the Northlander at a loss, right? Can we get, let's say, from North Bay to Toronto in four or five hours instead of the seven

or eight hours that it used to take on the train? Those are big questions because the economics of the Northlander haven't really changed very much. The fact that the government recognizes the need for such a train to connect the North to the South, I think, is important. The fact that they've invested in it, I think, is well taken by Northerners in North Bay and all the way up to Cochrane. And so I think it is a positive, but I think we're suspicious.

We're still waiting for that train to leave the station, as I say. Understood. Well, we have an economist with us here tonight, so I should ask Livio about the economic advisability of doing this. We know, of course, it would take significant subsidies for this thing to operate. From an economic standpoint, in your view, is it worth it? That's a good question. It all depends on what you're trying to achieve.

Transportation has always been a major theme in the North. The region basically was opened up by a transcontinental railroad, which was heavily subsidized by the federal government. The roads, in a sense, don't really support local traffic as much as traffic coming through. So in a sense, the transportation network in the entire region has always been subsidized in order to provide access to resources so they can be shipped out, etc. So, I mean, the Northwest and the Northeast are a bit different in terms of passenger rail.

I mean, the rail issue is more of a Northeastern issue. I think highways are more of a Northwestern issue given that there is no train service really any longer. So is it feasible? If you're willing to spend the money, anything is feasible. I suspect it's not going to really be self-supporting in the long run. And so then the question is, what should take its place? Should it be some type of enhanced bus service? Should they spend more on highways? Whatever. And even the bus service isn't really

quite there either. So pretty much people are left to their own devices. But again, it depends on where you live. As I mentioned earlier, there are many Norths. So if you're in the urban North, what I like to call the N5, Thunder Bay, Timmins, the Sioux, Sudbury, or North Bay, all those cities have air connections. And so in a sense, passenger rail is not going to be as big an issue. If you are in some of the smaller towns outside of that urban core set of areas, then obviously road and rail are going to be of much more concern. And so again, most of the votes are probably in those larger cities and that will direct what the preferences of the government are going

to be going down the road. Right. Let me circle back your worship to something that was referenced earlier and that is you in the north frequently go through occasions where highways are shut down and you can't get out of the cities in which you live because the highways are simply overrun by snow and the authorities close them down. And I wonder if there's anybody who's sort of articulating the notion of having an election for the first time in 44 years in the dead of winter when it will be more difficult for people to get to the polls.

Are you hearing that articulated at all? Not so much. I mean, as northerners we are used to the snow. We're used to going out in the minus 30s and the minus 29s and doing what we need to do. So I think that there'll be some that won't bother going out if it's a very stormy winter day and there will be some that are driven by having their voice heard and going in and casting their votes. So I think there'll be probably a decline and not to mention the snowbirds that are not around right

now either. So a lot of our aging population has gone to different parts of whether it's Mar-a-Lago or down into the U.S. and the warmer states. And so I think there's a lot of people that aren't even going to be able to vote because they'll be away. And, but I think for the most part, Northwestern Ontario people are pretty tough folks. And if they have a drive and they wanna have their voice heard and they wanna make sure that they cast their vote, they will, no matter what the weather.

But I wouldn't be surprised if there was a decline in numbers. Well, you're the only one of us here who's put their name on a ballot, or I shouldn't say put their name on a ballot, I should say successfully put their name on a ballot. And I guess I wonder, would you wanna be canvassing door to door in this kind of weather?

No, and I've spoken to my friends and the candidates that are running right now and sticking those signs into 10 centimeters or two feet of snow and walking those door to door in that cold weather presents itself, everything from frozen eyelashes to runny noses. So I'm not sure that's the way you always want to present yourself at a door

when you're trying to get someone to vote for you. Bingo, bingo. All right, let me switch focus here and I want to talk about Elon Musk for a second. People are asking, why would you want to talk about Elon Musk as it relates to Northern Ontario? Well, the answer, of course, is Starlink. And he managed to get the province of Ontario to sign a $100 million contract providing improved broadband to Northern Ontario and other remote areas of the province of Ontario.

The other day, when it looked like the tariffs were still on, Doug Ford said he was going to rip up that agreement, unilaterally break that agreement. On the other hand, when the tariffs got a 30-day reprieve, he said, okay, I'll hold off on doing that right now. Livia, why don't we start with you on that. How is that issue playing out in your part of Northern Ontario right now? Well, in Thunder Bay, it's probably not an issue. We have fairly adequate internet service. I think the issue is more when you start moving into the far north of the province,

along the highway for example, when you drive from Thunder Bay to the Sioux, the service is erratic. And so having something like Starlink would definitely be useful. It's actually a very good idea. But the on again, off again, I mean, I'm not certain what to make of that. I mean, if you were trying to play hardball, I mean, you either are going to tear up the contract or you're not. And sort of this kind of hedging your bets is kind of risky. Although by the time the tariffs come back in March, the election will be over and

again it'll be a completely new ball game. So I guess I wouldn't really do it that way. I think if you're trying to demonstrate a serious intent in your negotiating policy, I don't think over the next 30 days, we should be letting up in terms of those limited things that we can do. I mean, let's face facts. There's only so much the province of Ontario can do.

I mean, this is not Finland and the Soviet Union in the 1940s. That is going to be a fairly tough. And I mean, the only tools the provincial government has are probably things like government procurement contracts, any type of government purchasing, since we don't have a tariff policy. And so we basically signaled we're flexible in how we're going to approach that negotiation.

And that probably might not demonstrate a firm enough resolve. David, let me get you to speak to this story in as much as when we saw Doug Ford say, I'm ripping up this agreement with Elon Musk, I don't care, you know, we've got a show that we're serious about fighting back on these tariffs, and I'm sure a lot of people thought, all right, good on you, Doug, but then in the next breath they might have thought, oh, well, that means Northern Ontario

is gonna wait another two years to see its internet improved. So where are we on this now? Well, I think you really hit the nail on the head here. I mean, that technology is somewhat unique. Billions and billions, tens of billions have been invested in this. It's being used around the world.

It's brought high-speed internet to places where it has never been before, including in the North, where it's very difficult, of course, to lay fiber optic cables. So, and also the satellites don't function as well as this new technology. So this has been a long-held promise by both provincial and federal governments to bring high-speed internet

to rural and remote regions, including in the north. And so on a whim, if I may say, for the sake of political rhetoric and perhaps a political win, tearing up that contract, I think, was very ill-advised. And even though very popular in the moment, in the long term, I think it would delay the delivery of high-speed internet to much of the province. When you cut up a contract and start a new process, new contracting process, new bidding process, it can take years and years and years. And so we've been waiting so long already.

So I think it was ill-advised, if not politically popular. Your Worship, you're not actually in Thunder Bay, well, your municipality, shouldn't you, is not in Thunder Bay, it's west of Thunder Bay. How's your internet service there? So that's a great question, and thank you so much, because I'm just biting at the, chomping at the bit here to get in on this one,

because I had a meeting with Minister Surma when we were at Roma in January, and we talked exactly about that, about the inability for many people in our smaller communities outside of the larger hubs of not having remote service, not even cell service, if dialing 911, when most people have cell phones only now. And, you know, internet's another part of it.

And, you know, just the right to have that ability to be able to dial 911. And we had a great conversation and she said and you know just the right to have that ability to be able to dial 9-1-1. And we had a great conversation and she said you know we've signed, we're moving forward with the Starlink idea so that there is service along the highways in northwestern Ontario. When we talk about highway closures and accidents and accessibility to self-service, it's not there. When we talk about driving from my house in Shunya to my parents' house on Red Rock Indian Band, Lake Helen First Nation just outside of Nipigan, there's no cell service on my ride. If there's a spot of it, it comes and goes. And those are now emergency necessities. And we need to have that. And the geographical area, the rock

cuts, that just doesn't allow for the fibre to go in. So what's the answer? Right now the answer is Starlink. And for many of us who, you know, that gives us the ability, for example, my mom was in the hospital last year, so I had self-service through Starlink where I camped. So it was the ability for my parents to get ahold of me in the emergency. So those kind of things, I mean, that's a luxury for camp, but when we're talking about highway transportation and the ability to connect, it's not there. It's the far end of my municipality, people don't have service. And just to, I was going to say translate, but that's probably the wrong word. When you say camp, you mean what people in the rest of Ontario call your cottage, right? Exactly.

Okay. And let me do one more follow up with you. And that is, just so I understand what your position is on this, is it your view that if Donald Trump comes back with the tariffs, Doug Ford should find some other way to punish Ford and his allies as opposed to ripping up this Starlink?

You want the Starlink contract going forward regardless? Well, that's actually been a really big conversation just amongst my family because we all have Starlink at our camps and we use that service and I think that if you're going to not do business with Elon Musk then at least find another way that's reliable for us to do business because I think cutting up that contract with him will hurt rural municipalities and mostly Northwestern and Northern communities. Gotcha. Okay David let's talk health care for a second here and I don't have to tell you that the Liberal Party for the last two elections in a row has not found many willing ears or votes in Northern Ontario. They used to be very strong in the north and they have not been for two straight elections.

They are clearly choosing to place all their bets. They're all in on health care so far in this election campaign. They're leaving the tariff issue to Premier Ford and they are saying, we think we can make some hay by pointing out how bad this government's record on health care has been. How's that playing so far? Well, it certainly does speak to a concern people in northern Ontario have. Emergency room wait times are significant, sometimes

well over 12 hours, if not into the 20 hours in some instances. Emergency rooms gets closed down sometimes for a lack of staff. Obviously, we also have a problem with getting, uh, family doctors. So it does speak to voters' interests. The problem, I think, is that the liberal brand in Ontario, as you suggested in your question, is just so damaged that I don't see them coming back in the region this cycle. They've been shut out, of course, in the last election. They may get shut out again if the polls have anything to say about it at the moment.

So even though it's the right message, the right narrative to appeal to Northern voters, I don't think it's going to translate into seats in the North. Olivia, what do you say on that? Well, the health care issue is quite serious. If you look at physician vacancies per 100,000 population, they're highest of Ontario's 16 CMAs, it's highest in Thunder Bay.

There's like 33 vacancies per 100,000 population. Greater Sudbury's a you know, a few notches down from that. Although there is a physician shortage in the province as a whole, believe it or not, if you are in downtown Hamilton, you can walk around and actually find buildings where they have signs that says taking new patients for family doctors. You do not see that in Thunder Bay. You definitely will not see it in Red Rock or a lot of the smaller communities.

So that is a very serious issue. The provincial government says they're going to fix that. The liberals say they're going to fix that. The NDP say they're going to fix that. They've been saying they're going to fix that for years and years, and it still has not been fixed. And so, I mean, when you look at all of the major parties, none of them have actually been able to deal with shortages of healthcare personnel, et cetera. There seems to be a lot of money for capital projects. You know Thunder Bay for example is getting a cardiac

surgery suite. That's great, all the money for that, but who is going to staff it? I mean that is going to be a question down the road and the government and the opposition really aren't able to answer how they're going to fix those kinds of problems. Most of the fights I I guess, you worship in Northern Ontario, have been between the Conservatives and the NDP over the last couple of elections. Does it look to you like one side more than the other is in ascension at the moment? Well, you know, it's considering that we used to be a liberal stronghold in the Thunder Bay-Speria North and Thunder Bay, Attock, Oaken,

and then with the election of Kevin Holland and the influx of funding coming to the area, and now we have some candidates in the Thunder Bay, Superior North, it'll be interesting because like I was mentioning earlier, if somebody's voting according to their loyalty to a party, then they would lean towards the NDP. But if people are thinking in regards to who's gonna be in government and what that means for bringing money to the North, then they're gonna be looking at the candidates who's viable, who's strong.

And you know, when in Thunder Bay Superior, North Superior specifically, we have Lise Fougoir, who's been very, very vocal on the transportation issue and other issues that we brought forward. And you have Mayor Rick Dumas from the Town of Marathon, who has been in political seats since, I think he's been almost 30 years, been my VP at Noma for longer than I've been there,

and a very, very strong voice and a strong advocate. And I think that it'll be interesting how that turns out because I think that if people are thinking with regards to what's gonna come to the region, if we have a representative who's in government, then it's a different vote. David, I've got one minute to go here, and I'm gonna ask you a bit of a wild card question

because you folks in Northern Ontario are gonna be celebrating Valentine's Day by watching a leaders debate. The leaders are all coming to Northern Ontario on the 14th of February to do that. If you had the opportunity to ask the four major party leaders any question at that debate, what would it be? Well, first of all, it's going to cost $130 to attend the debate.

Right. So I'm going to have to raise some funds here, which I think is somewhat prohibitive for many of the voters in North Bay. But nonetheless, what would I ask them? Look, I would ask them, what is their long-term vision for the North? This is not just about one announcement following the other. As much as having the Northlander up and running, I'm more interested in long-term investment in infrastructure going forward for decades. And that means, in fact, not just looking at one election cycle or one party, but what

Ontario is going to do for Northern Ontario in the long term. And I'd like the answer for that. Now we have issues with First Nations negotiations, different environmental issues, changing agricultural sector. We have already tariffs on the softwood lumber in Northern Ontario. These are things that are ongoing. And so how is the North going to become prosperous, be growing financially, growing in population? These are my concerns and frankly none of that has happened in a generation.

We have seen a relatively slow emptying out of Northern Ontario and I want to see that reversed. That is a great question and I hope the debate moderator is watching this program tonight and we'll put that question to the four major party leaders. I want to thank from left to right on our television screens Livio de Mateo from Lakehead University, David Tabachnik from Nipissing University and Wendy Landry from the Northwestern Ontario Municipal Association. She's also the mayor of Shunya.

Great of all of you to join us on TVO tonight. Many thanks. Thank you. Pleasure.