The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - What's Next for Cuba?

Episode Date: June 9, 2026

As conditions in Cuba worsen, President Donald Trump's intentions toward the island remain unclear, raising questions about what happens next and what role Canada should play. Mark Entwistle, Canada's ambassador to Cuba from 1993 to 1997 and now a senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, joins us. Then, the ripple effects closer to home as Ontario's small but longstanding Cuban diaspora reflects on the crisis, with roots dating back to the 1800s. A trip to Niagara brings one man's journey into focus and sheds light on what people on the island are facing today.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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I said you'll never have to use it, but sometimes you have to use it. And Cuba's next, by the way, but pretend I didn't say that, please. That was U.S. President Donald Trump back in March. He was talking about his government's military action in Venezuela. And then he dropped in that little nugget about Cuba. The U.S. was already putting massive pressure on the island. At the beginning of the year, it imposed an oil blockade, causing power outages and fuel shortages. And then last month, the U.S. announced criminal charges against former president,

Raul W. Castro, over the downing of civilian airplanes in 1996. It also ramped up sanctions causing foreign companies to cut ties. And just last week, Sunwing vacations and Westjet vacations announced that all operations in Cuba will be suspended until further notice. So, what happens now? Well, observers haven't ruled out the possibility of U.S. military action or regime change or some kind of deal. We'll look into all of that and the role Canada could play.

Then, we had to Niagara Falls to find out about its centuries-old ties with the island and learn more about how Cuban Canadians are navigating this crisis. Welcome to the rundown. President Donald Trump's intentions towards Cuba are still unclear as the situation on the island gets worse by the day. What are the potential outcomes here? And what part should Canada play? Mark Entwistle served as Canadian ambassador to Cuba from 1993 to 1997 and is now a senior fellow at the Monk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. And he joins us in studio. How are you doing, sir?

I am good. All right, let's talk. For more than half a century, Canada. Canada essentially stood by Cuba. Now we're seeing international and Canadian businesses withdraw. We are seeing airlines, including Canadian ones, suspend their flights, or are forced to confront sort of a difficult question. That is, what obligation, if any, do Canadians still have to Cubans? Well, it's certainly true that Canada has a long and quite storied engagement in Cuba. We've been there even before the revolutionary period. You know, back to, in fact, just after the Second World War.

so we were through the military coup of Fulhencii Batista, the whole revolutionary period. We've been front and center and sort of watching all of this. We've been very engaged in Cuba for many years. I think Canada's obligation certainly is not to defend Cuba per se, but I think our obligation as Canadians and also the government of Canada, I would argue we do have an obligation when we are witnessing a sovereign state of the American. under what is effectively economic assault by another neighbor in the hemisphere. So I think there are some moral obligations.

There are things that Canada could do. The reality though, of course, is that the government of Canada faces many challenges at all times. Our relationship with the United States is very challenged at the moment. of irritants that the Americans have put forward. Many of them are quite vexatious, even some invented. I would suspect that the last thing that the current government wants to do is add yet another layer of irritant at the moment. So I'm personally not expecting a robust voice from the government of Canada.

I am curious, as you mentioned, many Western countries historically have taken a harder line than Canada. I am curious, has Canada's engagement over the decades produced any? tangible results from either country? I would argue, that's one of the great debates, 100%. In the United States, they would argue absolutely none.

We've been duped. I would argue, in fact, quite the contrary. Have we occasioned multi-party democratic elections? No. But we've set a standard of expectations from the Cubans on human rights issues.

For example, we've had deep conversations with them. I think they probably, you know, scale back some of their instinct to control from time to time. We've helped them build institutions. We've helped them with environmental work in Cuba. We've helped directly with the Cuban people, helped them train in modern economics, help them develop businesses, et cetera. And our policy is very similar to Mexico's, very similar to Spain. The idea is that you engage with people, even if you don't agree with them all the time.

Well, you brought up the human rights perspective. You know, groups like Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, have pointed to rights violations, and it wasn't that long ago where there were mass arrests as well. Should Canada be more vocal in this moment when it comes to the human rights sort of issues in that country? Well, my personal view is the Cubans understand us very clearly. We are vocal when we certainly need to. The issue of human rights in Cuba is a totally legitimate subject. It's part of the mix.

It's part of the story, if you will, about Cuba. The Cubans at times had not done the very best job they possibly could, and at times have failed on individual political rights. I think people recognize that. I've spent a lot of time with the Cubans over 30-plus years of dealing with them. And their position is that there are all kinds of different rights, and I would not disagree with Amnesty International or any Cubans

who are bringing to the four human rights issues. The Cuban argument is that also there are other kinds of rights, there are collective rights to education, there are collective rights to health care, there are collective rights to a certain, you know, basic standard of living, for example, which they also believe is to be a human right. So their track record is a, I would say, a mixed bag. Okay.

I want to change gears a little bit. Let's talk a little bit about the U.S. and Donald Trump. As we know, Trump administration has begun a campaign against Cuba over the last several months. We got the oil blockade. We have charges against Raul Castro and other general threats. Is Cuba a threat to the U.S.? That's a very good question, and that's at the core of some of the argumentation that you'll hear from Washington.

I might as well not sugarcoat this, and speak quite frankly. In my quite lengthy experience with the Cubans, I believe that's the idea that Cuba is some kind of existential national security threat to the United States. It's a pretext. I don't believe that Cuba is a security threat to the United States at all. is under no threat of invasion. The only real national security threat to the United States coming from Cuba is of unbridled or unbound migration. That's the national security threat.

You know, and they'll talk about the relationship with the Russians and with the Chinese. Those are historic relationships through the revolutionary period. I do know that Cubans would value a reset in the relationship with the United States. if there are legitimate security issues that the United States has, they should sit down as adults with the Cubans and talk to them about it. I'm quite convinced that Cubans have said, they've told me, they've told the Americans directly. We will deal with any issue so that we can have a proper relationship,

including national security issues. So let's have a conversation about it. Well, in March, Trump said, quote, I can do anything I want with Cuba. And we know U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, continues to call for regime change. Is there a meaningful distinction between supporting a democratic change versus supporting a regime change? Here's part of the challenge with Cuba. I believe there are layers of motivation, all existing simultaneously piled on top of each other,

which is why it's a little hard to discern what the Americans really want in all of this. And a number of them are contradictory. If there's a core contradiction in all of this, it's that the interests of the Cuban-American, the hard-line old establishment, Cuban-American political elites in Miami, who are the political patrons of somebody like Secretary Marco Rubio, their interests are not synonymous

with the interests of the United States of America. In the past, different administrations have realized this, President Carter, President Obama, and have charted a different path. The current Trump administration is, fused with the Cuban-American community, and of course, Secretary Rubio is a principal player in this. And in my opinion, has effectively loaned out its foreign policy to the hardline Cuban-American community, a special interest group. But I think the motivations are quite

distinct, but they're all kind of jumbled together, slightly fused. The motivation of the Cuban-American hardline community is essentially a revenge narrative and to recover old properties. That's effectively what it is. The interests of the United States, and you'll see in President Trump, is a little different. There it's more about U.S. business interests, returning almost to the 1950s, kind of Cuba's an economic colony of the United States again.

Rarely do they talk about democratization. in Cuba. Very, very rarely. And I think that's quite telling. And I think the experience in Venezuela is telling as well. Despite the threats, as we know, many people are watching what's happening there. What is the likelihood of this escalating further? Well, President Trump often talks or says that, for example, the Cubans have no cards to play. And let's be honest, they have very true cards to play. Their backs are against the wall. And he will say, I have all the cards to play. My personal views, he really only has two cards to play, and none of them are particularly palatable and each are kind of risky.

The first one is some kind of military operation to effectively invade the country, let's say, or try to extract Ravel Castor or some crazy thing like that. But there you're facing a risk that General Colin Powell pointed out when he was advising the Bush administration to be wary about invasion of Iraq. back in the day. If you break it, you own it. So the risk there is the United States is suddenly overnight becomes responsible for the welfare and well-being of 11 and a quarter impoverished and down and out Cubans on the U.S. taxpayer bill. And that's not a situation. I don't think one would want to be in. They would want to be in. And the second card is to continue the

pressure, continue to effectively, with neon chest of the Cuban economy and hands around the throat of the Cuban economy, try to strangle the life out of it. And the intent there can only be to try to provoke some kind of uprising or a total surrender on the part of the Cuban government. I personally think it's a rather cynical approach because it's used to. using innocent civilians, the Cuban people as pawns in a game, a political game that they can't get done themselves. And that's a dangerous road, I think, to go as well. Now, before Trump got involved, Cuba was already experiencing blackouts, protests, arrests,

record number of people leaving the island. Was Cuba headed for a major change regardless of the latest rounds of U.S. aggression? I've always agreed. I agree. I've always thought that the history of Cuba over the last 60 years has actually been one of evolution rather than stagnation. And they've adapted, the Cubans, you know, dodge and weave and adapt to circumstances. My experience with them has been that they are not particular, they're not ideological. They're not ideological, you know, totalitarian hardlines, Soviet-style communists. They're actually high pragmatists. And they introduce, you know, they're to private sector into Cuba. They dismantled themselves lots of the irritants of the Cuban people over the last 15 to 20 years. The narrative that you'll hear in the United States is one that's really frozen in time from the 1960s, Cold War, unchanged, and in many ways, highly influenced by this hard-line Cuban-American community. And I mentioned that because I believe that there's

an inherent capacity of the Cuban state to evolve itself. The economic problems that you alluded to are absolutely real. COVID did a number on them. They never really recovered from COVID because they hermetically sealed their economy and shut down their tourism industry. But there are signs of life. The private sector is quite active. I believe it's quite legitimate if they could change the conversation.

with the United States, and the issue is the embargo. The embargo is suffocating for them. If that were to be removed, I could envision a scenario where the Cubans would evolve themselves to a place that looks quite different than it is now, and even kind of a social democratic democracy. Well, that brings up when you say that, I think of nations like China and Vietnam, who've introduced capitalist reforms, we talk about special economic zones. We look at China being the billionaire capital of the world here. Yeah.

Why has Cuba taken more of a hardline approach? Is it because of the embargo, or is it something internal? I think it's fundamentally related to the embargo. I really do. You will hear lots of arguments, especially in the Cuban community outside of Cuba, that the embargo is irrelevant, it has nothing to do with it. It's a red herring. It's all the fault of Cuban state, all of the mistakes that they made over the years.

and they're, when they, you know, veering to socialism, et cetera. They made mistakes, without question, 100%. All kinds of mistakes of timing, that kind of thing. But the embargo has had a profound influence on the Cubans. And so I think the embargo has two aspects. One is just the impact on the economy itself, which has prohibited them from doing a number of things. But the deep psychological impact of believing that they're at war with the United States has made them kind of very defensive and paranoid about how they see the world.

So China has nothing like a U.S. embargo against it. Even the Venezuelans had nothing like the comprehensive reach of the U.S. embargo, which they've now converted from the old, what I call the legacy. embargo as we know it to now full-on blockade since January. Completely, it's an attempt to suffocate and strangle the very life out of the Cuban economy. China's never had that. None of these other countries have ever had that. This Caribbean Island, 90 miles from the coast of the United States, has received a degree

of hostile attention and a willingness to attack it economically that no other country on earth has had. my opinion. If you were briefing Canada's a foreign minister tomorrow, what would be the single most important thing that you'd want them to understand about Cuba in 2026? That, two things. Number one, the Cuban people need supporters on their side. The Cuban people, there's many Cuban people, so I'm a little reluctant to say the Cuban people because there's many, many different voices. But in general, I think on the island, not a

outside, but on the island, I think, you know, most Cubans just want some, they want adults in the room and they want somebody to get the economy going. So my advice to the minister, if I was ever asked, was seek all pathways to assist the Cuban people, be it humanitarian assistance, up to an including potentially oil. Cuba's like a canary in the coal mine. And so if we don't find ways to mitigate the impact on the Cuban people, we're missing key lessons because the current version of the United States can do similar things to us. All right. Well, we'll have to see if Minister Anand takes that advice.

Mark, I really appreciate you taking the time to chat. Thank you. It's great pleasure. You take care. The Cuban diaspora in Ontario may not be huge, but it has roots going all the way back to the 1800s. I recently hit the road to talk to a man about his journey to Canada and what people on the island are going through now.

No, this isn't Cuba. This is Niagara Falls, Ontario, home to Havana Restaurant and Cocktail Lounge, and its owners, Dailise and Maria Fife, Guinness World Record holders for the largest Mojito ever made. Niagara Falls has a connection to Cuba that goes all the way back, to 1824, when poet Jose Maria Eredea visited here and wrote the poem, Ode to Niagara. Since then, generations of Cubans have been drawn here, like Abdel Hernandez, a former cab driver and DJ, who first came to Canada in the late 90s.

Abdi al, you have a lot of memories on Niagara. Used to be a taxi cab driver. I was a cab driver, tour guy, limo driver here. When I moved here, we didn't know what to do, you know, the immigrant experience. So this is the first time for you. This is the first time eating here. I've been here at a night time, dancing. Hello, hello.

How you doing? Thank you so much. Grazie. What is something that you recommend? The roasted pork. Havana roosted pork. That's the main meat, actually. They keep it last Cuban over there.

Okay. You want to go really deep in the Cuban style, like authentic? It's a Europa Vieha? I think, I trust you. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. All right. Let's talk food because for a lot of people, for a lot of Canadians, when they think of Cuban food, let's be real.

It doesn't get the best reputation. Reputation. Exactly. Because it's predominantly resorts that people sample the food at. What do people need to know about real Cuban food? Cuban food, we've got to go back in history. You know, starting with the Cuban indigenous population was completely exterminated by the Spanish. So our main influence is Spanish food, European food.

For 1925 to 1959, a lot of people from China, Koreans, and Arabs and Jews move to Cuba. There is Cuban food history before 1959 and after 59. So in Cuba, every aspect of life, food, culture, literature, music, and everything is heavily influenced by the economic and political model that has been in the island prevailing for the last 67 years.

Beautiful stuff here. Look at it, this is traditional. This is Tostolus. Over there, we had a Shink Hotel. Delicious, thank you very much. All right. Thank you. So you're the eldest in your family.

Exactly. How many siblings do you have? I got a brother that is four years younger and a sister who's two years younger. They're both living in West Palm Beach, in South Florida. Learned, joining the sun while you decided Canada and the cold would be the place that you would want to settle in. Why? Why Canada?

I got a very special connection to Canada. I came to this country. The people who helped me come here were great human beings, great people. And they helped me, how would I say, feed into the culture. Very well. I liked everything I saw about Canada, especially the people. When you were in Niagara, you were talking about how, you know, when people get a lot of, you know, When people get into your cab, they're asking you questions about certain places.

You know, tourists or want to know what's that, what's that? Tell me, you brushed up on your Niagara history. If you want to get to know a town, if you want to learn the culture, if you want to get the poles of the city, you become a cab driver. So you get to know people from all walks of life, especially in Niagara, being such a tourist internationally known spot, you get tourists from all over the world. I'm a counselor, but I'm not getting paid as a counselor. I'm getting paid as a cab driver

because people bend their problems and they want your opinion. Tell me a little bit about the community, the Cuban community here in sort of, you know, the greater Toronto area but southwestern Ontario because it's not a huge population. No, it's not a huge population

because at the time, the access, for example, to places like the United States, it was easier. In order to arrive in Canada as a Cuban, you had to come as a sailor, as a pilot, as a deeper, as a musician or invited by somebody. But because of the political and economical situation in Cuba,

most Cubans will get denied at the Canadian embassy in Havana because they are, how would I say, potential immigrants. Once they come here, they will not go back. Help me understand a little bit why someone your age at the time would want to leave Cuba. A lot has changed in that country, but a lot hasn't changed in that country. What made you originally come out this way? My quest for freedom, my models, my sense of right or run didn't align with the Cuban system with what I call a dictatorship.

A lot of censure, no freedom of speech, no freedom of political affiliation, no economic freedom. For example, my salary at the hotel, what I used to work, was $970 dollars. But the Cuban government posing as an employment agency would take my salary and give me $15,20. and give me $15, $20 a month. When you put economic hardship with lack of human rights and freedoms, it creates a desperate situation because there's no way for you to improve your life in Cuba. There's no way in the island to get out of that situation.

From 2022 to 2023, Cuba saw the biggest wave of emigration in the country's history, with around a million people leaving the island, many heading to the U.S. Now, for a country with a population of 10 million, that's 10% of its population leaving in just two years. One in four Cubans right now are over the age of 60. And that's because many of the people leaving are younger. There have been other waves of emigration, the 60s, the 80s, the 90s when Abdel left himself,

each wave leaving a mark on the people left behind, as well as the people seeking a new life abroad. Your family, your friends, everything that emotionally means something to you is left behind. And this great country with all these possibilities, you don't have an emotional attachment to it. So it's a very difficult process. It was hard, it was tough.

But at the end of the day, I'm grateful I did it. Have you ever been back? I've been back a few times, but I haven't been back for about seven years now. And the last three times was because of family dynamics. I personally don't enjoy. I find it tense. going back to Cuba, I'd rather stay in a country where I feel safe.

You were saying your immediate family is in the U.S. Exactly. It's just you here in Canada with your wife and your kids. Exactly. You have some cousins, though, that you have still in Cuba. Do you keep in touch with them? I have to be in touch with them. We send them medicine every month.

Since Cuban's economy has been designated, the capability of the government, which is the only one who provides health services to get the medicines and the treatments for the people is greatly diminished. So they resort to their families abroad. My case is not the only one. If you look at the Facebook page, you see people,

I need this medicine, I need this medicine. So it's the Cuban diaspora here in Europe, in the States, the ones who actually take care of most of their families. I know people, very close to me, I'm not going to get too personal, that had to fake diseases. and conditions here so they could have access to the drugs to send the cube. I'm talking about life-saving drugs.

What are some of the messages that some of them are sending you? I'll try to locate a couple of them. For example, this one says, my brother, I don't feel or I feel bad about writing you in these circumstances, but I would like economic help. I need it to see a doctor in Havana with the angiologist. This is one. Saludos, Myanmar. I'm very embarrassed.

But I need $30. Everything here is horrible. Let me see if I find another one. A big hope, my brother, I love you always. If you see Cuba now, if you see this now, you will not recognize it. This is someone who, unfortunately, you said, has passed since you've talked to them.

What did they send you a message here? Things have changed everything. for bad. If we don't send them money, they die. They die victim of all those diseases. So in order to keep them fed and as healthy as we can, because we also have our challenges here. You know, an immigrant has to adapt to the new country, has to face the same challenges that the people who live here have for generations. And on top of that, we also take care of our families. I'm going to acknowledge that we're having some delicious food while we're talking about sort of the issues in Cuba of people not having food.

imagine that must be hard for you to hear and see that this is your country, that yes, you left, but still that you're very proud to be Cuban. It must be hard for you to see the images and the stories that they tell you. It's heartbreaking. Many Cubans, when they come from the island, they feel guilty when they walk into a supermarket. And they see all the availability of food that there is here. Their mind goes back to their friends and relatives back in Cuba, and they start crying. And they feel guilty.

Because now I got all this and my people down in the island don't have anything. And the government doesn't have the willingness to bring about the necessary reforms to improve the quality of life of people. Like, for example, they did in China or Vietnam. Even when they might not agree with their human rights records when it comes to freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of political affiliation, independent unions and stuff like that. But at least they brought about some economic reforms that improve a little.

a bit, the basic quality of life of their own people. The Cuban dictatorship or government or regime is very rigid when it comes to that. And the people are suffering big time. I'm Jan. Thanks for watching The Run Down. We'd love to know what you think of the show. So send your suggestions and feedback along to rundown at tbO.org or as always, leave us a comment on our YouTube page.

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