The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - What's On Voters' Minds in Ontario's Two Largest Cities?

Episode Date: February 27, 2025

With just one day to go before election day, we're joined by two journalists who spend a lot of time talking to voters in two of Ontario's largest cities. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Ma'am, good to be here. You have election fever? I know Rebecca and I do. Election, I'm feeling it. I'm feeling it. Good to have you back, Richard. Rebecca, this is your first time. It is election eve.

I know you both are probably exhausted. So thank you so much for making time for us. So healthcare, housing, and tariffs are among the big topics this election. We would like to know what are the local issues in your cities? Rebecca, I'll start with you. I mean, a lot of those things, of course,

matter here locally as well. We certainly talk a lot on the show about doctors and how so many people just this morning we were talking about trying to get a doctor for someone's unborn baby and how they had just secured one. So that's always a big one. We spoke to someone in Packenham just outside of Ottawa who says, you know, they're an older person wondering what's available to them in a caregiving environment. So yeah, health care is always going to be a big one no matter where you go. And tariffs, you know, lots of talk about concern for companies who are wondering what it means for their livelihoods, for their business, for their companies. One of the things that's really important here in Ottawa recently, of course, is LRT and who will take

ownership of LRT. It's been a big factor here and the costs the city is seeing and our OC Transpo is running just a huge deficit and part of that of course is that we've been building this LRT across the city in multiple directions and Doug Ford came to the City of Ottawa a couple of weeks ago and said okay look if I'm re-elected we will take on the LRT, the building costs of it and ensure that we have the oversight of it. We'll upload it to Metrolinx. Well following that, then we had Bonnie Crombie saying the same thing, although she said Metrolinx yes, but it will be a new Metrolinx, of course, because she said Metrolinx has lots of problems.

And then we had the NDP leader saying as well, Amart Styles, that they would do some sort of 50-50 cost split. And so there's been lots of talk around who will pay for that and how the city can ensure that we don't have this giant deficit and how are we going to pay for that. I think there's also a lot of talk sort of on that same note, municipalities not getting their fair share of taxpayers' money and is there some other way they can bring more income to the city and hoping that the province is willing to upload maybe something else. And so interest in ensuring that municipalities here in Ottawa, but the larger sort of municipalities around the region as well, how do we maintain the services that we're offering if we're

just running out of money and we don't have the money? So those have been some pretty key issues here in the Ottawa ridings. Well, you mentioned the LRT because I was going to bring that up. We have an LRT. We have an LRT. I live in Scarborough. So I mean, to just also get a gauge of, to build on what Rebecca was saying about the LRT, this is a promise that the Conservatives are making, the Liberals are making. and we know the LRT has been uploaded to the province. We know what that's been like. Can you tell us, is that something that people are concerned about in Toronto? Certainly, I mean there's the Eglinton Crosstown LRT

that they're building on Eglinton, which is a major thoroughfare right through the centre of Toronto, and it's been under construction since 2011. It started under the prior liberal government. And Ford and the Conservatives have been unable to get this line open in their seven years in power at Queens Park. It has run over budget. It was supposed to open in 2020.

And this has really been a thorn in the side of Premier Ford and his Conservatives, because there's a lot of people that have been waiting for this line to open. There's a lot of businesses who have had their livelihood disrupted because of all the construction that had been going on with this. I asked Ford at a campaign stop the other day, hey, you're asking for the people's vote.

Can you tell us when is this line going to open? And he said, Richard, it's going to open this year. That was his contention. Of course, voters, I think they'll believe that when they see it. So it's been a big problem for the conservatives, but I don't know how much it's resonating with voters in the sense that it hasn't come up a lot on the trail.

And I don't think it's really moved the needle in the polls to any great extent. I mean there are memes suggesting that people have teenagers the ages that older than. Well, the Toronto started a great fun report not too many months ago about all the other great public works that had been built faster than the Edwinston LRT, not the least of which was the Channel Tunnel which was built underneath the English Channel between London and Paris, built and open quicker than the Edlington LRT. But transit is a big issue for my listeners here in Toronto. What else on top of the transit? I'm on a transit focus station that does a lot of traffic reports and a lot of my listeners are stuck in gridlock all the time. And one of the big wild promises that Ford has made

is to build a tunnel under the 401. He announced that in September. And us journalists were kind of gobsmacked. Apparently, some of his cabinet members, I hear, were kind of gobsmacked and taken by surprise when he announced his plan to build a 55-kilometer tunnel underneath this busiest highway in North America, from Mississauga in the west to Scarborough in the east.

And he has not put a cost on this during the campaign. I've been on him on the campaign trail. Premier, what is this going to cost? Experts tell me now it could cost $50 billion or more and take 20 years or more to build. It's a wild populist pledge, but whether or not he can actually get this built or intends to get it built is another story. But I wonder if it resonates with voters because everyone has been stuck on the 401 at some point and maybe has imagined, boy, I wish there was a tunnel underneath that I could go under instead. I mean, there's also another joke. It takes an hour to get to Toronto from Toronto.

So transit is something that people are talking about in the city. Rebecca and Richard as well. The election was called, you know, it's a winter election. There's a lot happening in this province. And the PCs are surrounded with a lot of controversies, high spending and RCMP investigation into the Green Belt scandal. How do you think the PCs have managed to remain at the forefront controversies, high spending and RCMP investigation into the Green Belt scandal. How do you think the PCs have managed to remain at the forefront with all that baggage because

most of the polls are showing that they are in the lead? Rebecca? I mean, I think in part, I think a lot of people are waiting for the main event, which is the supposed federal election that's coming up. You know, I walk around this city and this is a city that is very engaged in politics. Of course, we've got bureaucrats coming out of our ears here. They're everywhere. And when you're in a store, I remember I walked through and there was these two women who were almost at blows deciding if it was Mark Carney who should in fact lead the Liberal Party. I just really think from what I have noticed people are talking a lot more about federal politics in this city than they are provincial politics.

Do you think that, not to interrupt you, but do you think there's a disconnect as to which jurisdiction is responsible for what? Because healthcare seems to be the main issue that's coming up and that's a provincial jurisdiction. Yeah, no, I think you're right on that. I just, you know, I think part of it too is that it seems as though it's a foregone conclusion and you asked why is it that it still is a foregone conclusion. I don't know if I have one answer. I think there are multiple answers for that but I do think that it's something that people, you know, I worry that the voter turnout will be low in part because of the polls being so decisive that the answer is what it is going to be, that Doug Ford wins another perhaps

majority government. I mean, we don't know that for certain. But certainly it is something that I think people are feeling a little less interested in because of all of the talk happening federally. because of all of the talk happening federally. Yeah, so I don't know. I think there's, you know, time will tell whether or not Ottawa voters are interested in getting out to vote. That being said, you know, if you look, if you sort of pan out and you look at the wider map of the way people vote around this area, all of the rural areas around here, of course, are conservative voters, all of the rural areas around here, of course, are conservative voters,

all of the rural ridings. And then actually right in Ottawa, we have four of the nine incumbent liberals in our riding, in the Ottawa area rather. So, you know, there are, there is something here to lose for the liberals if they were to give up any of those seats. And I think there, there, there is some concern. Bonnie Cromby was in our neighborhood neighbourhood again this week as was Doug Ford showing that perhaps he's thinking they can weasel their way into some of those ridings. So it's interesting. It's, you know, urban settings always have a different kind of a vote than the rest of the province, rurally, so I'm interested to see how it plays out. And we also have four incumbents who are not running. So that will be interesting to see what happens there. And three of those are PC candidates. So lots, lots to talk about in these writings.

I think Rebecca's right in that there is a lot of voter apathy out there. There is a lot of focus on the federal race. But I think Ford's continued lead in the polls comes back to whether you agree with it or not, how the campaign has framed the ballot box question. Who do you want to deal with Trump? Who do you want to push back against the US tariffs issue? And voters certainly are paying attention to that and see Ford as the candidate best suited to do that. And that's the same thing that I think is boosting Carney federally in the liberal leadership

race. Voters see him as maybe right now the best man to do that, to push back against Trump. So I think that's really what's cemented Ford's lead right throughout this campaign. Well, why have the other parties failed to capitalize on this? I would weigh in, I mean, it's partly because Doug Ford has had the opportunity to go to Washington and be the face of the provincial official who is there talking to the officials in Washington. The other candidates have not enjoyed that luxury. You know, some worry that maybe his time would be divided and his interest is more on the Washington side of things than it is in Ontario and yet

that seems to have worked for him. You know, Mark Carney's success in the polls right now for the Liberals might be rubbing off on Bonnie Cromby as well. We've certainly heard that that seems to get maybe, she said herself, helped her a Bernie's success in the polls right now for the liberals might be rubbing off on Bonnie Crombie as well. We've certainly heard that that seems to get maybe, she said herself, helped her a little bit in how people are perceiving that party right now and perhaps why we're seeing them moving ahead in the polls. So yeah, I think Doug Trump, you see my problem here. Donald, Doug Ford, Doug Ford, Doug Ford, you know, I think that he called this election for that reason.

He saw an opportunity. He knew that it would work and it's working. I think you're right. I think there is a reason why he called the election now and it's largely to do with American politics. You saw an opportunity to capitalize on a disorganized liberal party as well that didn't have a lot of funds on hand to run advertisements early. We saw it a year ago when the Conservatives tried to brand Bonnie Cromby as you know a tax and spend liberal. She's quote too expensive and they kind of painted that picture for voters before Cromby and the Liberals had a chance to respond. So a much better organization on the

conservative side and certainly some disorganized campaigns I think it's fair to say that we've seen for for the liberals and the NDP. I want to bring it back to the voters because, Rebecca, you mentioned voter apathy because whatever party gets elected tomorrow night is the party that's going to be in charge of healthcare, housing, all of the issues that impact our daily lives. We've had three days of advanced voting. Richard, can you talk to us about what the advance polls showed? Are the numbers better than previous years or are they worse?

Well, only 6% of eligible voters showed up to vote in the advance polls. That's not good any way you shape it, but apparently it is a little bit better than what we did see in 2022. So I think there's two ways to look at it. 6% is quite low, but there is some more appetite than we saw in the last election. We'll see what happens on election day. It's going to be a little snowy here in Toronto. We'll see if the weather might keep some people at home. Right now it doesn't look like it's going to be any more of a sizable

turnout than the 44 percent we saw turn out in the last election. In 2022. Rebecca, what about in Ottawa? I will say, yeah, I just talked to an official from Elections Ontario and one of the things I said was 200,000 a day in those polls, advanced polls, which actually, as Richard points out, is better than what we saw in 2022. And that's in part because they had many more days that the polls were open. So they seem to be buoyed by that and encouraged. I don't know if it translates into more people going out to the polls on election day.

I know that people are worried if there's a three in front of the numbers, that will be a big miss. Yeah, I mean, and it is, it's disappointing if you look at the majority of the people just didn't vote. Well, that's not saying much about our democracy. So I mean, I'm hopeful more people get out, but I don't feel I don't I don't know. I'm a little bit worried. You mentioned that there were four writings in Ottawa, where the previous sitting member

is not running. Are people expected to vote for that same party or differently? You know, I think Nepean is one writing where Lisa McLeod, you know, she's been in that seat for 20 years, took a break after some controversy, though, you know, when you go out into the riding, some of our reporters have been there and they certainly seem as though they're not unhappy with Lisa McLeod, those who voted for her. This is the same riding that John Baird was in as well before he was a cabinet minister in Stephen Harper's government. Also we've got the Carlton riding, Goldie Gamari was ousted. Same thing though, we've

got George DeRue's running in that, the city councilor, city of Ottawa, and has been a long time since, for a number of years. This is Pierre Poliev's riding, so there's a lot of conservative support in that riding. So I think someone said this morning in our story meeting that if George DeRuze doesn't win, they'd eat their shirt. So I think that that probably is a conservative go again. Ottawa Centre, that's an interesting one. That one kind of flip-flops back and forth between liberals and the NDP. Was an NDP in 2022, since 2018 in fact, and Catherine McKenney is running this time there. Ren for mayor was a city councilor. I think the NDP is hopeful that they can peg their support or peg their hopes on them making it through again. So yeah, so I think it'll be interesting. And then

of course in Ren for there was a John Yakubusky, more than 20 years a conservative in that writing, and his dad was a Tory in the 60s, 70s and 80s. So sort of a legacy piece there, and I think that one again, going to stay conservative. So Richard, in Toronto, are there any similar situations happening in Toronto? Quite a few hot writings I'm watching, including the one the TVO studios are in right now, and that's Toronto St. Paul's. This has been a long time liberal stronghold, potentially, up until 2018 when the NDP took it in that big landslide. Jill Andrews is the incumbent, but the

Liberals have a star candidate, a former journalist in Stephanie Smythe, who's trying to win this riding back. And I was out on the campaign trail with Smythe the other day and she was stping in front of the aforementioned, still closed Eglinton LRT, trying to make that an issue to win back some votes. I'm told it's a very close race, one the liberals are hoping to win at Toronto St. Paul's. There's also York Southwest and the Premier's nephew,

Michael Ford, held that riding, but he's not running again. And that's a riding he won by less than a thousand votes in 2022. So the the liberals are hoping to win that writing. There's Eglinton Lawrence, another hotly contested race where the incumbent Robin Martin is not running. In that writing is another star liberal candidate, Vince Gasparro, who has been mentioned as a possible future leader of the party.

The liberals hoping that they can win that seat back as well. So, you know, some of these closed seats that Rebecca and I have talked about break one way or another. It's possible we see some surprises tomorrow on election night now. Well, I mean, surprises too, because tomorrow is voters, it's election day. And if people are undecided, maybe it's an opportunity for them to make their mind. I wanted to get from you both, which party do you think has run the most effective campaign and which has run the poorest? Rebecca?

Oh, I mean, I think, I think, I did it again. I think that, my apologies, I think Doug Ford's campaign has been the most successful and probably, you know, frustrating for those who want to hear more from from Doug Ford through this campaign. Successful in that, you know, he's in the lead and nothing seemed to be breaking that lead. So why, why offer anything more until the very end? And when they did offer a policy, then it's, you know, still sparse. It doesn't have a ton of details. And so I think that's effective. People may not like it, but it is effective. As for a poor campaign, I think that both the NDP and the liberals, I think, I don't know if I'd call it poor, but part of the problem with both of those parties

is that they parrot each other in a lot of ways. And I think it becomes difficult for the voters to know which one to vote for. You want to be different than the others but then if you have liberal leader Bonnie Cromby saying vote for me not the NDP, hey NDP voters come to me, well then you are sort of suggesting that you're the same. So I think that's been been part of the problem is that they haven't been able been able to find that line in the sand that separates them. It's interesting because you problem is that they haven't been able to find that line in the sand that separates them. It's interesting because you would think that they would be going for the big guy, right?

I mean, look, now, the Liberals and the NDP, I think it's fair to say, have not run good campaigns here at all. I mean, the Liberals, did they vet any of their candidates? I mean, the PCs on an almost daily basis are bringing up past tweets, some of them just from a year or two ago, of candidates speaking out against Bonnie Cromby or taking some issues on some very controversial subjects. There hasn't been a lot of any going on. The campaign stops have been disorganized.

Yeah, the message has been a bit muddled. Just yesterday with Bonnie Cromby saying she's throwing her support behind Mark Carney. That was the story out of the provincial liberal camp yesterday, not her other promises of cutting taxes or giving everyone a doctor. Ford clearly has run a good campaign. The PC party had that advantage of knowing when the election was coming. But you know what? We've been talking about an early election since May, since the young up and coming reporter

in Steve Pagan was the first to sort of suggest that we could have an early election. So I don't think there's a lot of excuse for the liberals and NDP to have not been ready for this. They certainly don't look like they were very ready. We have about two minutes left and I just wanted to give you an opportunity. How do you see this election playing out tomorrow night, Rebecca? Well I think, you know it's funny, I have family members who told me they're not voting because they've been upset with some of the policies that have been announced and they I think, you know, it's funny, I have family members who told me they're not voting because

they've been upset with some of the policies that have been announced and they feel like their vote is lost anyway because it's a done deal. And I think the way it plays out for me is really, I think this is, you know, I think it's Doug Ford's to lose. But the more interesting storyline for me is what this election is going to say about our democracy. And if people aren't going to get out to vote what does that what does that mean what do we do to prevent that from happening in the future because

it's a big problem if so many people aren't voting do we really have a government we want so that I mean for me that's what I'm gonna be watching and I and I hope other people are watching it to other people who are smarter than me to configure how to fix this. I mean conservative insiders are telling me right now that you know they're eyeing 90 seats or more. You know, maybe they're being a little optimistic. I don't know. I think the record was David Peterson in 1985 winning 95 seats. Could we be looking at another record? Maybe. I think the real story tomorrow will be the race for second place, right? Will Bonnie Cromby win her

seat in Mississauga East Cooksville, number one? Will the liberals get official party status back? Will they form the official opposition? Certainly looks like the NDP is going to finish third at this point. It's that race for second we're going to be looking closely at. We're going to be looking at those key races. As Rebecca says, it's Ford's to lose tomorrow.

Yeah, I think back on the piece of what you just said, Rebecca, about the apathy, because we all obviously we're journalists and I'm sure the politicians, we all want to encourage people to go out and vote. In our last minute, 30 seconds, what would you like to say to voters who might be trying to make a decision? Yeah, I mean, I think it's the only chance you get to ensure that you have a say. It may not feel as though it's going to make a difference, but that's, if all of those who are feeling apathetic right now were to get out and vote, it might just make a difference.

And as Richard said, you know, it's a difference between who becomes the official opposition, who becomes, has party status. I mean, these things matter right now. And I think all of the leaders would be hopeful too, that people get out and vote, especially those who could benefit from more people going to those polls. So yeah, it doesn't maybe feel like it in this particular election, but it does matter. You got no right to complain if you don't vote, right? I mean, if you're sliding into my mentions or Rebecca's mentions, as many voters do, you got no right to complain if you don't vote, right? I mean, if you're sliding into my mentions or Rebecca's mentions, as many voters do, you got no right to complain if you don't vote.

Look, I think some of these just as a final thought, some of these populist promises from Ford has really resonated with voters in the last few days. His pledge just the other day to remove the minimum price from liquor, allowing the LCBO to potentially sell a bottle of vodka for little more than what the tax is on it. The 401 tunnel that's uncosted, a lot of these things have resonated with voters. But you know, if you're concerned about an issue, like many have reached out to me, concerned about ODSP, Ford's the only party, the PC, the only party not pledging to double disability

payments. If you have an issue like that that you're concerned about, certainly hope you go out and vote and make your voice heard tomorrow. Because these issues matter in the day-to-day of everybody's life here in Ontario. Really appreciate both of your time. I hope you get some sleep tonight. Big day tomorrow. Big day tomorrow, Election Day.

Thank you so much for your time. We appreciate it. Thanks, Deb. Thank you.