The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - Who Benefits from a Low Loonie?

Episode Date: December 17, 2024

There are a few reasons why the Canadian dollar is lower against its U.S. counterpart. One is a widening gap in interest rates. Another is economic performance – the U.S. is growing while Canada see...ms to be slowing. A lower dollar is bad news for consumers and for large parts of the economy, but some sectors do benefit from a weak Loonie. A look at what business are prospering amid a soft dollar, and how potential tariffs could drive it even lower.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:57 Follow and listen wherever you get your podcasts. Are you planning a trip to the States this holiday season? Have you noticed your Canadian dollar spending power doesn't go very far these days? The value of the loonie is an important topic for us all, so let's find out what a sagging currency means for people on both sides of the 49th parallel. Let's welcome in our nation's capital, Alan Arcan, Chief Economist for Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters. And back here in our studio, we welcome Joanne Wolnick,
Starting point is 00:01:26 Executive Director of Tourism Promoter Ontario Southwest. Carl Shimada, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay. Nisha Ali, Founder, CEO and Executive Producer of SpinVFX. Anne Rory Johnston, Found founder of Commodity Context. And it's great to have you four here in the studio. And Alan, thanks for joining us from the nation's capital. And I'll start with you right away. I am going to show a chart in just a second here
Starting point is 00:01:53 about what the loonie's done over the last, let's say, 30 years or so. But given the news out of the nation's capital where you are today, I want to go to that first. When a bombshell drops, the likes of which we saw earlier today with the finance minister, Chris de Freeland, resigning, do people like you get very skittish about what that could do to the value of our currency?
Starting point is 00:02:16 I think, yes, that would play a role, but I would like to pull out a thread from minister, former minister Freeland's statement where she said, Canada is currently, today is facing a grave challenge and we need to take that threat very seriously. I agree and CME agrees that's why we're working with all levels of government with at the federal level, provincial level, working with our colleagues in the US at the National Association of Manufacturers to meet this challenge head on. I think that's really what the focus of the government should be.
Starting point is 00:02:48 Carl, do you worry when something like this, the likes of which happened today, takes place? Absolutely. I think the sort of leadership vacuum that this opens up does make Canada more vulnerable to Trump's tariff threats and it does put downward pressure on the currency. We are seeing the currency back off in reaction to these to this news. Nisha what do you see? Well I would like to ensure that our dollar is competitive and that is my biggest fear right now given the greatest news.
Starting point is 00:03:18 Joanne? Yeah I think just I mean building off that we want to make sure that we've got a competitive dollar of course and so I think the implications of that, we'll see where it goes. Roy? I think the challenge is, as former Minister Freeland has said, this is a major challenge the country's facing. I think one of the biggest challenges on our side of the border is that we are definitely not putting together a unified front.
Starting point is 00:03:41 This needs to be a team effort, and I think we've already seen a big split between Ottawa and the provinces, and now we're seeing a split within Ottawa itself. That is quite a hiccup for Team Canada, quote unquote. Right. All right, let's bring this chart up then as promised and Sheldon if you would, we're going to take a look at the Looney and what it's been doing essentially between 1990 and present day. And for those listening on podcast, I'll just show you that this is a chart that starts sort of going left to right. We've got a squiggly line that was between 80 and 90 cents with the dollar US back in 1990 and then drops quite significantly towards 60 cents towards the beginning of this century.
Starting point is 00:04:18 But then blasts right back up there and is actually worth more than the American dollar between 2005, 2010. But lately, as towards 2024, the dollar is coming down again, and it's hanging out around 70 cents U.S. right now. But the average is about 80 cents Canadian. 80 cents, excuse me, U.S. If you look at that whole 34-year period, the average is about 80 cents. Carl, go to you first on this.
Starting point is 00:04:47 What are the forces that drive the dollar either up or down over that three and a half decade span? Yeah, so it's a fascinating thing. It's really about the stories that are being told about Canada, right? So back in the 90s, we had a situation where we had high government debt, high interest rates. Those were intersecting to, you know, sort of set Canada on an almost emerging market path. Investors worldwide were very skeptical of investing in Canada. The Canadian dollar was falling. Sometime in the mid-90s, we started to see that change. You know, the government balanced the books. We had the oil industry
Starting point is 00:05:22 becoming larger and more significant in terms of driving Canadian exports. Through the early 2000s that really took off. Suddenly the world thought that Canada was the Saudi Arabia of the north as it were and I really I'm not even like speaking metaphorically there. I remember talking to American businesses during that period and they literally thought that you that Canada was on par with Saudi Arabia as an oil producer. So the Canadian dollar went way, way up.
Starting point is 00:05:52 And during that period, we had a hollowing out of the Canadian manufacturing sector, we had a hollowing out of the rest of the economy, we had a huge explosion in household debt. And so as households took on debt debt that put them in a much more vulnerable position. And so when oil prices came down and we had the pandemic hit and interest rates went up that was essentially a perfect storm and that is now what is driving the Canadian dollar down in advance of you know Trump coming through with his recent tariff threats. Okay a lot going on there want to pick up
Starting point is 00:06:22 on the oil and gas angle because that brings me to you. Once upon a time, the Canadian dollar was described as a petro currency because of the power of our oil and gas industries. Is that still the case? Are we considered a petro currency today? It's a good question. I would say certainly less so today than we were, let's say, a decade or a decade and a half ago. And I also want to differentiate, I think a lot of people tend to think about the impact of oil prices on the Canadian dollar as a terms of trade thing, in terms of the crude prices go up, so the value of our exports go up and our currency goes up.
Starting point is 00:06:53 But I actually think it's a slightly different, that obviously plays into it in part, but back in the kind of mid 2000s to early 2010s, the reason the value of the Canadian dollar was so high and also so linked to the prices of oil was this massive tens of billions, almost $100 billion a year of foreign investment that was coming into Canada and financing the expansion of the oil sands. So that basically, you know, that brought us up to par or above par in the kind of mid-2010s.
Starting point is 00:07:22 When that collapsed, that brought the dollar down with us. Now, what I thought was particularly interesting is back in, let's say, 2021, 2022, when the price of crude shot back up to the levels that we saw back in those early days, back almost as high as we saw in 2008, the Canadian dollar didn't follow suit. I think the big change in the story,
Starting point is 00:07:42 as Carl mentioned there, is that no one was expecting this kind of resurgence of oil sands investment like we saw then, because the heydays of long cycle, more expensive oil sands investment were largely behind us, and everyone was investing in shorter cycle plays, like the US shale patch. Got it. Perhaps we should touch on the fact
Starting point is 00:08:00 that the US became an enormous oil producer and essentially net sufficient during that period, right? So that meant that the US became an enormous oil producer and essentially net sufficient during that period right so that meant that the US dollar wasn't reacting in the opposite way as it had been. Gotcha. Let's talk tourism. Tell me about first of all what the mission of your organization is. Yeah so we exist to develop promote and overall support tourism across Ontario Southwest so that's much of southwestern Ontario.
Starting point is 00:08:22 So we're talking Windsor to? Windsor to Haldimand County so that is the edge of Niagara region and then yeah everything in between there in the north shore of Lake Erie. And you obviously care a great deal about what the dollar does because what kind of impact can it have on that? Yeah absolutely we've got a couple border crossings and we rely heavily on our US travelers we love them. When we have a lower US dollar, certainly the value proposition of the tourism product that we have and what we have to offer increases in competitiveness. So that's a really good opportunity for us,
Starting point is 00:08:52 not only to bring US travelers across, and these are high value travelers. We know that they spend a lot of money when they come here and they're highly engaged in what we have to offer, but not only that, we to keep Ontario travelers in Ontario and less leakage out to the US and other provinces, other countries. So do I infer from that that you actually like it when the dollar drops vis-a-vis the US currency?
Starting point is 00:09:14 I mean to a degree from this perspective yes I think that it really does increase the value proposition that we have as a destination and what we get to what we get to offer. So if the bucks at 70 cents US today, do you want it to go to 60? Well, as an overall, probably not. I don't think that that's healthy for the Canadian dollar as a whole.
Starting point is 00:09:32 I think the other thing that's worth mentioning is carrying capacity. So certainly we want our US travelers back in Ontario, 100%. We don't want, you know, we want to make sure that we've got that right mix of what the destination can hold. And we certainly have a lot of things in place in terms of dispersion.
Starting point is 00:09:49 So moving people around, getting people to these lesser-known areas, and making sure that we're respectful of what we have the carrying capacity to actually host. Alan, maybe you could help me on that one as well. Obviously, if you're trying to have Americans do business up here, the lower the dollar goes, could be good for you. Where do you like the dollar to be, vis-a-vis exporters and manufacturers? Right, unlike tourism, it's a little more
Starting point is 00:10:13 a complicated story for manufacturing. On the whole, a lower Canadian dollar is good for manufacturing as it makes our exports more competitive. But there are some important caveats to think about. For one, this benefit tends to happen very slowly and over a long time, so it's not a quick fix for the sector. Second, manufacturing imports a lot
Starting point is 00:10:37 of its intermediate inputs, its materials, its products that it uses to build its own final products. We also import a lot of machine equipment that we use to upgrade our facilities. So the benefits of a lower dollar are slowly eaten away by those higher import costs. And I just go back again to the discussion about Trump's tariff threats. That could be one of the reasons why there could be some weakness in the Canadian dollar right now and that's a much bigger concern for manufacturing than a weaker dollar. I think they'd gladly give up a lower loonie for these tariff threats to go away. Well okay let me do a
Starting point is 00:11:18 follow-up with you Alan because again we're trying to understand how this works here. On the one hand if Canadian businesses have to purchase equipment in the United States in order to do their thing here, the worse our dollar gets vis-a-vis the American currency, the bigger problem it is. On the other hand, if we've got businesses here that want to try to sell to the United States, we're likely to be a better bet than a lot of their American competitors if the American dollar goes further up here.
Starting point is 00:11:46 So in the case of the auto sector, where it's all jumbled up together, what's the sweet spot for the Canadian currency vis-a-vis the US? Right. I think it's a very similar story as the overall manufacturing sector, but it's just a more, it's a industry that's even more integrated than the average. Here's a good stat to show you how dependent the auto sector is on the US. For the overall manufacturing sector, about 44% of the sector sales are generated from US exports,
Starting point is 00:12:23 but that number jumps to 75% for the auto sector. So $3 to $4 that the sector earns is earned in the US market. It's also, as you say, it's very integrated. If you look at an average car that Canada sells to the US, about half the parts come from the US. Any auto part or the average auto part that Canada ships to the US has about half the parts come from the US. Any auto part or the average auto part that Canada ships to the US has about 30% American content. So it's a
Starting point is 00:12:49 very integrated sector. So a lower loony, again on the whole supports the industry, but there's offsets from higher imports. And again going back to the tariff threat, that's the bigger issue for the sector today than the correct level of the exchange rate. Understood. Okay, Nisha, let me find out more about what you do. You're in the film and television business. Correct. What exactly do you guys do?
Starting point is 00:13:14 We do visual effects. We are in the movie making business. So if you want everything you see on screen, whether it's a film or television, on location, something you dream up, that's what we do. And getting back to the low dollar, Steve, it's wonderful in the short term because for you American friends and international friends, they come here to shoot because of the low dollar, but that's not the only reason why they come here.
Starting point is 00:13:43 They come because of the great talent. They come because the locations matches their scripts and they also know that we have a stable tax credit, has been around for decades and is sanctioned by all levels of government. However, one of the things that we should be cautious about is a sustained low dollar because for short term it stimulates everyone, it gets everyone working, but for the companies in Canada, we spent 40% of our operational budget in buying American products such as hardware and software to operate our business. And that alone, when the dollar is at an even rate, maybe 20 to 25 cents, it works.
Starting point is 00:14:34 But if it's 30 and 35, it's very difficult because it shrinks our profitability, especially if we are locked in a currency exchange where we would, you know, are we locked in 30 cents on the dollar and or 25 cents on the dollar and then the US dollar increases. So those are the challenges that we face long term and I'm sure someone on this panel is more qualified to say how do we mitigate that over the long term. No I get it it, but this is an interesting problem you have then, because as the dollar goes down versus the American buck,
Starting point is 00:15:10 you're going to see more production here and you're going to be busier and you've got to love that. Correct. But on the other hand, when you've got to go buy equipment down there, it's a bigger problem because your money doesn't go so far. Correct. So where do you love the dollar to be ideally? 20, 21, 22%, believe it or not. That is a sweet spot. So like, says 78, 79, 80 cents US, that kind of thing?
Starting point is 00:15:30 Yes. That's a sweet spot. Yes. Well, we're not there today. We're 10 cents below that today. Oh, I am aware. So not a good thing right now. It's too low for you right now.
Starting point is 00:15:40 It is too low, but again, we're on the world stage and we compete globally. Okay, let's put it, can I bring a chart up here and then we'll get everybody in on this as well. Sheldon, if you would, bottom of page two, Canada's top exports to the United States, I think this is not going to come as a great surprise to a lot of people, but as, again, for those listening on podcast, we got a bar graph here of various sectors of the Canadian economy and what percentage they are as a total of the sectors of the Canadian economy and what percentage they are as a total of the exports to the United States.
Starting point is 00:16:08 Number one, not surprisingly, oil and gas. More than a quarter of our exports by sector are in the oil and gas sector. Motor vehicles, parts, 13.5%. Chemicals, 7.3%. Processed foods at 7.3%. Primary metals at 6.7%. And machinery at 6.1%. So oil and gas and basically cars and trucks,
Starting point is 00:16:30 I mean, that gets you darn near to half of, well, a little less than half, but anyway, pretty close to half of what we are exporting to the United States. So as you look at those two things alone, Rory, $0.70 means what vis-a-vis all of that? So looking at the commodity side specifically, one of the interesting things juxtaposed against the manufacturing side, where it's mostly a question of competitiveness and cost,
Starting point is 00:16:55 commodities are all sold in U.S. dollars. So a barrel of oil is, let's say, right now roughly $70, $75 a barrel. That in Canadian dollars is actually over $100 Canadian a barrel. So the weak Canadian dollar is actually a net benefit for Canadian commodity producers because our exporters earn in US dollars, but their expense base is in Canadian dollars. But I think what's also interesting here, it works in reverse for consumers. Back when we had a high Canadian dollar or a high value of Canadian dollar, it was much more connected to the price of oil.
Starting point is 00:17:24 When oil prices spiked, rather than seeing our gas prices spike, we actually saw the Canadian dollar appreciate and it provided a bit of a natural hedge. Whereas now we kind of have the worst of both worlds where let's say in 2022 when the price of oil skyrocketed to 130 when gasoline prices were the equivalent of almost $200 a barrel. In Canadian dollar terms, that's where we got kind of $2 plus a dollar a liter gas, because we didn't have that natural hedge. But just also to kind of echo Alan's points, I think this is where these these terror threats really come into play, because explicitly stated by those close to Trump,
Starting point is 00:17:59 is that they're not planning, at least so far, an explicit exemption for Canadian oil and gas. So there's this big question of, is Canadian oil and gas going to get hit as well? Because that's going to do much more damage than the weak Canadian dollar. And then I think one step further from that, this now next step of Ottawa's potential retaliation against these tariffs is I think everyone, myself included, believes that it's most likely that we do see some kinds of exemptions for Canadian commodities. But now Ottawa is threatening retaliatory export taxes on those same things to basically say, you know, if you don't take all of Canada's exports, we're not going to let you have the stuff you want instead.
Starting point is 00:18:34 Okay, quick follow-up, knowing what you know about how Trump feels about building pipelines and wanting to get his hands on our oil and gas. There's probably going to be a carve out for that, don't you think, from the tariffs? My expectation, I would say, if you had asked me a month ago, I would say even at that point, it was the questions of universal tariffs. I would have said maybe, maybe 5%. There was a 5% chance that we're gonna see taxes
Starting point is 00:18:55 or tariffs on Canadian oil. But since then, the tone has changed. He used to talk a lot about passing quesadilla in Excel or re-approving it for the third or fourth time at this stage. But they've stopped talking about that. Now they're actually really, they really are turning the screws on Canadian oil sector and the commentary would say, probably now it's still on a base case,
Starting point is 00:19:14 but probably more like 20, 25% chance, which is very concerning. But I think that, you know, that thing I was saying about the export taxes, I think the concern here is it's almost like the medicine could be worse than the disease in some cases, that while I understand Ottawa's position of trying to defend the entire export base of Canada,
Starting point is 00:19:31 there are substantial kind of east-west political dynamics here that will be absolutely inflamed, given that I think it's one thing for Trump to impose a tariff, whereas a guy named Trudeau imposing an export tariff on oil and gas out west, or potash or uranium in Saskatchewanan means a very very different thing and I worry what it would do to the national unity. Karl what are you saying? Yeah I would fully agree with that I think we should be calling a tariff an import tax right the
Starting point is 00:19:55 idea that Canada is going to retaliate by taxing its own citizens to me that does not make sense it's not going to change behavior south of the border it's going to impose burdens on our economy and you know ultimately just won't have the impact that anyone's looking for. So you know instead I think that Canada should focus at home, try to remove you know inter-provincial trade barriers, try to increase the productivity of the country itself and you know reduce tariffs because if you look back at the long history of this at the research over the decades,
Starting point is 00:20:28 it tells you very clearly that the country that unilaterally reduces tariffs tends to benefit in the long run. It's not like we haven't seen this movie before. Exactly. How come he doesn't? Anyway, that's another story for the day. No, exactly. That's the thing.
Starting point is 00:20:40 The crazy part here is that everyone around Mr. Trump, other than that very small circle, is not in favor of this move. And so right now, the kind of key thing to bring into this when we're talking about the Canadian dollar is that the market consensus right now is not priced for tariffs. The expectation is that sanity is going to prevail,
Starting point is 00:21:03 that people around Mr. Trump will convince them not to go through with this. And the Canadian dollar is sitting at the value that it is, and not far lower, because markets are relatively comfortable in that. Now, if that assumption gets overturned, the Canadian dollar goes a lot lower. Let's go to tourism again.
Starting point is 00:21:21 OK, we're at $0.70 US today. I'm going to make some inferences here, and you tell me whether I'm right or wrong. Okay, we're at 70 cents US today. I'm going to make some inferences here and you tell me whether I'm right or wrong. When the dollar goes lower, you like it because Americans' dollars will go further and therefore they'll come up to here and potentially enjoy a vacation in Canada that they wouldn't otherwise enjoy. Maybe Ontarians actually stay at home because their dollar won't go very far in the United States so they say, oh, what the heck, we'll stay home and we'll do our vacationing here Maybe Ontarians actually stay at home because their dollar won't go very far in the United States.
Starting point is 00:21:45 So they say, oh, what the heck, we'll stay home and we'll do our vacationing here instead of, you know, where our dollars are worth a hundred cents instead of 60 or 65 cents down there. Which of those two things happens more? Goodness, I think it's a combination of both. To say which one happens more, it's hard to actually track that. But we know that when we look at spending in Ontario as a whole, traditionally, we've got about, year over year, we've got about 80%, 88% of travellers in Ontario, these are domestic travellers from Ontario. And, you know, from an American perspective, we've got about 10%
Starting point is 00:22:23 of those travellers are US. Now, they account for about 10% of those travelers are U.S. Now they account for about 21% of the spend happening in Ontario. Whereas they spend more? They spend more, yeah. So they generally, they travel further away, so they have, you know, they spend more nights on general. They go on average, we're seeing anywhere between two and a half and three and a half nights versus an Ontario traveler, which is one. And a lot of the times people are traveling to visit within the province to see friends and family.
Starting point is 00:22:47 So it's not, they're not spending money on accommodations quite as much as some of those American travelers that we're seeing come up. We're talking Southwestern Ontario here right now, right? This is Ontario numbers as a whole though. Oh, that's as a whole. Yeah. And where are they coming from mostly?
Starting point is 00:22:59 What states are they mostly coming from? So now I'm gonna flip back to Ontario Southwest numbers because that's what I have. So for the most part, half of our travelers are actually coming up through Michigan, or they're from Michigan, followed by Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and New York State. It's a Northeastern thing. Yeah. Do you want to get people from Arizona coming up here?
Starting point is 00:23:17 I mean, we'd love to. We appreciate that the people in Arizona have a lot of choices when you look at the distance traveled to get here from Arizona. Now they're really opened up in terms of what their options are. And so we really see the sweet spot for us is talking to the people from those near border states. Gotcha. What do you do when the dollar, I mean, let's face it, we don't know what the impact of Freeland's resignation may be in the longer run. We know today essentially what's happening, but who knows?
Starting point is 00:23:43 This is a shock to the system and it's going to play itself out over time. But if the dollar starts to go lower, how do you pivot in your business in order not to get whacked by that? Yes, it is very difficult for us to pivot because we have to, the work is there. We need to keep our team employed and we have a team of 300 at SPIN and it is very difficult to say no to the work. But as a result, reinvestment in our company will be very difficult over that period. So we will be servicing the work, we will be working with everyone. And what I find, what is going to be difficult throughout that period are the local Canadian producers. They will now, because of the shortages of facilities being serviced by the American,
Starting point is 00:24:43 because they've got more American friends and international friends, because they've got more American friends and international friends because they've got more money to spend and they can pay a higher value for our studio space and our team. All of a sudden, the local producers will find it difficult to find space and resources and that puts a pressure on the work
Starting point is 00:25:04 that they're able to do as well. Is your team talking about tariffs much and what they might do to your business? We are. We are in a digital economy though, which is I don't think that there's a tariff yet, but so for now... Don't give me any ideas. No, no idea. So for now, but again, it affects everything we do because I think someone said earlier there are many work, many things that we purchase in Canada with a Canadian stamp,
Starting point is 00:25:36 but we don't know what went into where, if it was imported before and then sold in Canada. So all our consumables, our day-to-day, is probably, you know, exported, imported, and as a result already has that high number, high cost. I should have asked you, Joanne, tariffs. Does that affect your business at all in tourism? Not so much. I wouldn't have thought so. But you never know. He's pretty clever, Trump is, about coming up with new ways to use smacca as it were with that agreement okay where
Starting point is 00:26:09 are we going to go now let me bring in Carl let me bring you in on this we've been talking entirely so far about how the Canadian dollar looks compared to the American dollar what about the rest of the world how we're doing visa I was just gonna bring that up yeah so the the fascinating thing here right now is that the US dollar is clearly outperforming the world, right? But the Canadian dollar is essentially moving in lockstep with a lot of other currencies like the euro, the British pound, the Japanese yen, the Chinese renminbi.
Starting point is 00:26:35 They're all weakening against the US dollar. So that means a couple of things. That means that for manufacturers who are importing products from the rest of the world, for example, if you're a big manufacturer and you're bringing in a precision machine tool from Germany, that the price of that is not changing that much, right? You're not losing competitiveness in that respect. But it also means that Canada and all these other countries are actually becoming more competitive from an export perspective relative to the US. So it's good. It is. And so the irony of it is that Trump is essentially
Starting point is 00:27:07 kicking an own goal here. By making these threats, especially if he doesn't follow through on his tariff threats, he's depreciating other currencies against the US dollar. He's making it harder for US companies to export to the rest of the world. And he's essentially achieving the opposite of what he's trying to actually get done here. So he's gonna make it harder for
Starting point is 00:27:27 American exporters, he's gonna raise prices on Americans themselves, and yet his favorite word in the English language is tariff. Yes, he's the tariff man apparently. Yeah. Okay, I want to go back to Ottawa for Alan on the next one here and that is we've only been talking in this country since the current Prime Minister's father was Prime, about how to diversify our exports so that we're not so dependent on the United States, so that when, let's just say, someone who marches by the beat of a different drummer
Starting point is 00:27:54 becomes the president of the United States, we're not knocked on our heads by whatever whim he brings to the Oval Office at that moment. So I guess the question is, are your members, are the businesses of this country finally starting to get serious about finding other places to export beyond the United States? Yeah, that's another tricky question because I agree that diversifying trade is a potential part solution.
Starting point is 00:28:27 It's a tool that you can have in your toolbox to try to become less dependent on the US. But the fact of the matter is, we are so closely tied to the US, so integrated that it's gonna be, that policy would have its limits. I mean, when you look at what determines how much a country trades with
Starting point is 00:28:45 another country, the two biggest factors are proximity and this economic size. So, Canada, we share, as we all know, we share a border with the U.S. The U.S. is the largest economy in the world, but we also share a common language, which is another important factor. All those things together means we're always going to be, the U.S. is always going to be our largest trading partner. I mean, there's been successive efforts by the federal government to reduce our reliance on the US, so but if you look at the data our share of expats that go to the US had fallen from about 85% in early 2000s to about 75% today, so very limited success on that policy front. What markets Rory
Starting point is 00:29:22 might prove to be good second choices if we're trying to diversify away from the US? Well, I think the most natural kind of next size would either be Europe or Asia. But I think, just speaking on the oil side, it's even trickier than I think on the manufacturing side. I think for most major oil exporters in the world, it gets there by a port, a tanker,
Starting point is 00:29:44 and then they have the entire ocean of flexibility. But Canadian oil exports, virtually 95 plus percent of them go to the United States. Over half the US's oil imports come from Canada. But those travel on fixed pipelines that are stuck in place. Now, the recently completed Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline that the government bought
Starting point is 00:30:01 and completed very recently has tripled our capacity to get oil to the West Coast and into global markets, particularly Asia. But still the vast majority of that is kind of locked into the US market and particularly the US Midwest where virtually a hundred percent of oil imported from external from the United States comes from Canada. So do we just throw in the towel and say because of proximity, because of shared culture, because of, because of, this is never going to happen. We should just make our bets with the,
Starting point is 00:30:29 except the fact that the United States is always going to be our number one trading partner, and we can't diversify. I think largely there is a radical acceptance that's needed, but I do think that that doesn't mean we are completely vulnerable with no cards to play should these tariffs come into play. So I think, for instance, again, on the oil side, we're very vulnerable with no cards to play should these tariffs come into play. So I think, for instance, again, on the oil side, we're very vulnerable because of that
Starting point is 00:30:49 dependence. The US has actually more supply security than we have demand security for our barrels. But there are ways that we can begin to kind of mitigate that risk. And I think governments in Alberta are thinking about that. I think we've even seen the Premier Doug Ford talking about potentially heading back by cutting power exports. Of course, there, of course, the complication is that the vast majority of Ontario's oil imports, sure, they come from Canada, but they come through pipelines that are in the
Starting point is 00:31:17 United States. And even the power itself that Ford is threatening to cut is generated by natural gas largely that's imported by the United States. It's a very interconnected and complicated world, isn't it? It really is. And our economies and our industries grew up and evolved together because of this everlasting trust between our countries.
Starting point is 00:31:39 And I think this is, it really kind of highlights the vulnerabilities that that trust and co-dependence has. We're down to about our last 30 seconds here. Time flies when you're having fun. Joanne, we've been talking mostly about how you're trying to get Americans to come up to southwestern Ontario to visit. What about the rest of the world? Any possibility of that increasing? Absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. How do you get them? Well, we work with our provincial marketing
Starting point is 00:32:06 agencies, so Destination Ontario. We also work closely with Destination Canada just to help spread the news. We've got key markets that we know these travelers are interested in the product that we have to offer across Ontario. And we just invite them to come. And when they come here, they're going to have the best time ever, aren't they?
Starting point is 00:32:21 That's right. Absolutely. They're going to make sure of it. Absolutely. That's what I thought. Mr. Director, can I get a shot of everybody? We have the cast of Ben Hur on the program today. So many people. Okay, Eleanor Kam, we thank you for being there for us from the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters in the nation's capital.
Starting point is 00:32:36 In the top right box, Carl Shimada from Corpay, Rory Johnston from Commodity Context. And in the bottom left-hand corner, we've got Joanne Wolnick from Ontario Southwest. Yeah, take a trip to Haldeman County this winter. What the heck? And Nisha Ali from Spin VFX. Thanks, everybody, for coming on TVO tonight.

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