The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - Will Conservatives Win the Youth Vote?

Episode Date: May 15, 2024

The Conservative Party's support among young people appears to be on the rise. What's drawing them to the party, does that echo trends elsewhere in the world, where parties on the right are appealing to the youth vote? Have tough economic times and social media brought a whole new generation of voters to the conservative fold?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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The Conservative Party of Canada's support among young people appears to be on the rise, echoing a trend in democracies around the world where right-wing parties are garnering a larger share of the youth vote. What's drawing young people to the right? Have tough economic times and social media brought a whole new generation of voters to the Conservative fold? Let's ask in the nation's capital via Skype. Coletto, professor of political management and CEO of the polling firm Abacus Data. Sam Routley, PhD candidate in political science at Western University in London. And Jade Kassem, junior consultant at Wellington Advocacy and a Conservative Party supporter. And it's great to have all of you folks here in our studio. And Josie, thanks for being there in the nation's capital for us as well. David, I want to go to you first because you've got some numbers out that are truly intriguing here. Young Canadians supported Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party

four years ago to the tune of 34 percent. And that number today is not 34 percent, it's 25 percent. And that's a pretty big drop. I gather you think this is one of the biggest stories in Canadian politics today, and I wonder if you can tell us why. Well, I think it is, Stephen. I think it's because if you had come to me a year, or if I had come to you a year ago and said, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party is more popular among Canadians over the age of 60 than they are among Canadians under 30, you would have said to me, David, go to another poll. Go back in the field. Go back in the field. That data is no good. And what we're seeing consistently is the opposite of, is that, right? And I think that to me is the biggest

story because for so long, and I had to go back, I was looking even at data back into the early 2000s, like the last time a conservative party at election, around an election, was able to pull close to 40% among younger voters, couldn't find it. You have to almost probably go back to Mulroney in 84 when anything like that happened. And so something's happening that is attracting young people to the Conservatives, but I also think largely repelling them away from the Liberals. And that, to me, is the biggest story because Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government won their majority in 2015

because we saw this youthquake of millennials coming out and voting and voting Liberal. And I think they saved them in the last two federal elections when the rest of the country was ready to throw Mr. Trudeau out. Well, this program is all about theories as to why this is happening. So, Josie, why don't you come on in here and let's not have everybody do four or five reasons. Let's have everybody do one reason why you think this, you want to call it a youth quake? Maybe we're there yet. Maybe not. I don't know. Let's see why this movement of youth anyway to supporting conservatives is happening. What do you think? Well, it's hard to narrow it down to just one condition. I think when you look at the series of factors that have impacted the lives of youth and really when you're

looking at that kind of 20 to 35 demographic demographic this is where their biggest changes are happening in terms of career and where they're going to work and when you factor in the copa 19 pandemic and how much disruption that caused i think it's the perfect storm for some of these economic conditions we're seeing and the youth need to have hope they need to know that you know they're going to have a stable job opportunity and they're going to be able to buy a house one day. And that's just not what's happening. And I think that really, really creates some of these economic anxieties that we're seeing today. Tina, what are you seeing? Well, I think I agree with that. There's a great deal of anger and anxiety among the young people today. They can't afford to rent. They can't afford to buy

a house. They're having a very hard time with their grocery bills because things cost more. And, you know, there's a big mismatch of supply and demand in our economy. Coupled with that, they're also finding that there's no clear vision that they once hoped for with Mr. Trudeau. And when you listen to Mr. Poliev and what he's saying on social media, he comes across as somebody who is very direct, very clear, and a guy with a lot of common sense. And because they're so angry and just looking for some signs of change, they're really finding him attractive

and listening to all these YouTube clips and what he's saying on social media. We'll pick up on social media again later. People your age, what's their take on what's happening out there in terms of the economy? Well, obviously, you know, we're in an economic challenge right now. Everything is too expensive. Life is too like no one my age can afford anything. And so I think the biggest challenge right now for us is that we're all new grads. We're all trying to move out of home, get their own place to live. And we feel like we're back at square one.

We're back at living at home, having no money to pay for groceries. And I think the biggest reason why youth are going towards conservatives are because the conservatives are giving them real life examples. They're giving them real life things to work on. Polyev is doing acts of tax rallies, or he's bringing out so many youth and engaging them, and so they want to see that real-life example of change is going to happen. And so I think that's the biggest reason why a lot of us are going towards the right, is because we're seeing things actually happen instead of just

hearing about it. Sam, what's your take? Yeah, I mean, what matters here, I think, is we need to determine what belongs in sort of a short-term category versus a long-term category, because I think it's not unusual historically for conservatives to win these large majorities, as in 84, 62 or so, where there's a sort of growing anti-liberal sentiment, a malaise in the country, a desire for change. And to that extent, I think we can understand a lot of the youth support for the Conservatives as this anti-liberal sentiment in the sense that alongside the rest of Canadians, they're sort of desiring a change in Ottawa. And whether or not that is supportive enough of the Conservatives in and of itself to stay there, you know, in the next kind of coming electoral cycles is unclear. Because we also have to think about the long-term changes here, which is to say that while I think young people are kind of feeling the crunch of these immediate economic

stresses, you know, like inflation or housing, this is also very long term, something that will be felt for, that has already been felt for a decade and will be felt for decades to come, this lack of economic security. Yeah. Somebody mentioned social media a second ago, and I want to follow up with Josie on that right now, because Mr. Polyev certainly is getting kudos for the way he uses social media to get his views out there. How has the whole rise of social media changed the way politicians interact with the public in between campaigns? Well, I think what's really important for an opposition leader like Pierre Polyev is that he has a lot of freedom to test messages. And I think we're seeing this kind of roll out.

You know, he's using long-form videos to tell a story to Canadians that really resonates. And he's using visual descriptors to really back up the emotional sentiment that I think a lot of, you know, Canadians are feeling. A perfect example is when he was talking about encampments in Vancouver and really trying to speak to the emotions and the really strong feelings that some British Columbians have about the situation that is facing them. So I think opposition is a good time to really test this message. And I think as we get closer to a campaign, we'll see a bit more message discipline and really focusing on some of the high level messages like the economy that he is really going to be focused on framing the ballot box question around come the next election. Jay, does this stuff on social media really resonate for the long term?

I get it that it gives you a definite jolt in the moment, but does it have legs, I guess, is the question. Yeah. So Gen Z are the generations who grew up in technology. And now we're using that platform to help advocate and engage others for topics that we care about a lot. So I think this technology and this social media platform that the conservatives are using is a really good long-term effect because we like to watch short and concise videos that get to the point and say everything we want. Instead of having to sit there and watch long, boring, dry videos, we want everything we want to know in 20 seconds.

Although he's done that too. Like he did 20 minutes on the dead. But we still want to enjoy it because the way he talks, he's witty and he engages you. And so it's not dry or boring. It's, I wouldn't mind sitting there for 20 minutes watching because he's funny and he knows how to hook you. Like in the beginning of his videos, the first five seconds is always a hook. So it keeps you wanting to watch the whole thing. And so I do agree, it is a long-term effect.

David? I mean, the other thing that we're seeing, and I hear it anecdotally too from parents who have teenage or 20-something kids, is that they're seeing Pierre Polyev's ads on YouTube. And so one of the other parts of this story that I don't think we talk enough about is the Conservatives have a massive fundraising advantage over the other parties. And so, yes, social media is really important. And we just did some research after the last federal budget, a budget that, by the way, was meant to, you know, reduce generational inequities. That was the theme that the prime minister and the government wanted to get across. A third of Canadians under the age of 30 didn't even know there was a budget, right?

And so I think Ottawa, where I live, official Ottawa, still operates in an analog kind of world where increasingly everyone, but especially, as Jade said, Gen Z, is in a digital world. And the conservatives, because they have the spending advantage, are speaking directly to young people. And Justin Trudeau and the liberals and even the New Democrats are just hoping they hear it in earned media like on this show. OK, that's fascinating. And Tina, maybe you could pick up on this because when Justin Trudeau won his first majority in 2015, he was the youngest of the party leaders and seemed to be the choice of the next generation.

And now here we are, whatever it is, eight and a half years later, and he's now the oldest of the major party leaders and doesn't, at least the liberals don't seem to get what David just said, namely, you gotta be where the young kids are and they don't seem to have a presence on YouTube. How are they miscalculating like this? Well, I think they're certainly trying, but it's not working. So if you look at the YouTube channels of Mr. Poliev or, you know, others, you see a very consistent and very aggressive

message in coming out that regular, you know, average voters could relate to. And, you know, your average Canadian, especially the younger people, may not be reading the Globe and Mail every day and watching CBC religiously, as some of us may have been for the past few decades. They're on YouTube, they're on, you know, X or Instagram, looking and scrolling for the latest news. And because he is so effective in delivering messages, you know, Josie mentioned short clips. Yeah, some of his most popular clips, Mr. Poliev's channels are 30 seconds, right? And in 30 seconds, you are hearing a very strong message about a housing crisis or, you know, something that affects your

grocery bills. And he even presents a solution in that short span of time. So I don't know about that. Well, he articulates a vision. I may not agree with that. You may not agree with this, Steve. But in a very short span of time, he is delivering a very clear alternative and targeting these angry voters who are resentful about the fact that, you know, they're living in their basement of their parents' homes or unable to buy a new home or, you know, having to cut down on things because grocery bills are so high. So there is a problem that he's addressing. I'm going to challenge that a bit because Mr. Polyev is an expert at ax the tax, fix the budget, build the homes, stop the crime.

I mean, I didn't even look down at my notes. I just wrote that. You wrote that? I literally just wrote those four lines. It's stuck in my head because he just says it so often. And I am, I guess, a typical idiot example of somebody who, when you hear something long enough, it sticks in your head. But that's not a, I mean, that's not really a solution. That's a bumper sticker. So Sam, I wonder, he's got the social media thing all figured out. He is

attracting a younger audience. Are you seeing solutions out there, like real solutions? I mean, I think if we're looking at the, you know, the comprehensive sort of policy solutions that will actually address some of the core problems. I mean, I think that's minimal. You think it's what? Minimal. Minimal. Minimal. Mostly because, I mean, at this stage, if you're in Polyev's position and running a front runner campaign where you're pretty well expected to succeed, you really don't want to rock the boat too much. But with that being said too, I think being able to recognize the problem and voice the discontent itself gets you far enough,

at least when it comes to attaining office. And I think Polyev's communications have been really successful in the sense that speaking as someone who belongs to this age bracket, right, it's very cathartic, right? It feels very, you feel very much heard. Okay, that's wonderful. We love catharsis here, but Josie, come on in on this, and that is, you know, axe the tax, you know, is not a particularly profound policy prescription. Fix the budget is not a particularly profound policy prescription. Fix the budget is not a particularly profound policy prescription. Stop the crime. I mean, I could go on here, right? At what point do you think he's got to put some flesh on that bone? Well, I think I would challenge this as well. I think that there are tangible solutions that he has put on the table. I mean, he tabled

an entire private member's bill about housing and, you know, really speeding up building permits to start these construction projects. The carbon tax, we know Canadians don't like. This is something that's come across in public polling that I'm sure David can speak to. And this is a step in the right direction of starting to make life more affordable for Canadians.

And it sounds like a talking point, but this is the kind of stuff that will be rolled out likely in the first year and will be a tangible, credible point for PolyEF to point to about making life more affordable for Canadians. So I think we're seeing these policies roll out. Sometimes you miss them just through the course

of how much is being put out there, but there is starting to be these building blocks that will ultimately lead to the policy platform, which will be released during the actual federal election campaign. Let me test that out with David. David, if you were in the field with young people 10 years ago, you would find issue one, two and three, which were at the top of their list of concerns. OK, we're 10 years later now. Are those issues different? They are in the sense that I think we've seen an emerging scarcity mindset across all Canadians. I mean, one of the unique things is that those issue sets aren't that

different. Whether you are 60 plus or under 30, the only real difference is health care. Older Canadians are much more likely to put health care up, given that they're going to need the system to be there for them, specifically in a shorter period of time. But what we've noticed over the last year is that issues like climate change, social justice have fallen on the list of what younger Canadians are saying are important to them when we give them a long list and say pick three. And what's really emerged are the three things we've been talking about. Cost of living, housing affordability, and economic security. Health care is there for young people too, but it's much more about this sense of,

I'm not sure the world is going to be a place that I can get a good stable job anymore, given how fast things are moving. So I think that scarcity mindset has pushed a lot of these other issues down the chain. And so someone's basically saying, look, if I'm going to get evicted and then I have to pay a thousand dollars more a month for rent, I can't really worry about climate change right now. Right. And so a politician like Pierre Polyev, who is feeling that and articulating it, at least right now, is connecting. Jade, let me test that with you. Do you care less about climate change and social justice now and more about affordability and paying the rent and all that?

Well, I wouldn't say I care less, but I would say without being able to live or afford anything, what's climate change going to do for me? Like talking to my peers and to my friends, we do support climate change, but how important is climate change to us when we can't put food on our table? We can't heat our homes. We can't, you know, fill up our tanks. And so it really comes down to weighing out how important something is versus, like, our environment. And for us to live is the most important, in our opinion. I guess the next thing we've got to sort of explore here is whether or not what we're seeing at the moment is a fundamental shift and change

in the nature of Canadian politics, or is this one of these sort of typical, you know, the Liberals are down right now, so of course the Conservatives are up, but it's nothing more permanent. Tina, you want to start off on that? I mean, we're seeing it here, we're seeing it around the world, flirtation with more Conservative parties right now. That's certainly a trend. And, you know, in Canadian history, we've certainly seen this, you know, wave of liberals in power and then conservatives in power, especially at the federal level.

That is entirely normal in our history. What is new, I think, with the current state of things with Smith-Rapuliev is that he is very different than the conservative leaders we've seen in the past. I mean, you look at the red Tory tradition of, you know, people like Hugh Siegel or, you know, even what John Sheree promoted. It was a different set of, you know, approaches and policy issues that they put forward. But ultimately, the members of the Conservative Party preferred what Mr. Poliet was putting forward. And, you know, one of his most popular videos on housing health, for instance, you know, blames the

government for the current housing crisis we have. And it also points to gatekeepers, right? So when we talk of the central message that he's putting forward, it's that, you know, everything is going wrong and going down south and the government is to blame for it and I can fix it. That's sort of the basic message

that he's putting forward. And the gatekeepers or, you know, the elites or the bureaucrats and the government that's been enlarging over the last nine years under Mr. Trudeau's leadership. When you look at the facts of what has happened, right, it is true that the Canadian public service has enlarged by 36 percent over the last decade. Right. That is not insignificant considering the economic pressures of COVID-19, considering inflation pressures, as well as general, you know, state of economy that we're seeing in Canada where productivity is lacking. So what we're seeing is that those who can afford to do so are leaving Canada because taxes are so punitive if you are

very successful. And then there are others who are struggling to make ends meet, right? So there is a very significant population in Canada that is unhappy about the state of things in the Canadian economy and Canadian politics. Sam, I want to ask you this question. You're a PhD student in political science. I mean, it doesn't get much more elite gatekeeping than that. Do you feel like Polyev's coming after you? I mean, to some extent, in the broader sense that there is this sort of anti-establishmentarian discourse, this anti-elitist discourse. But I mean, looking at this within broader trends, I think the key to understanding Polyev and where the conservatives are going is this sort of use of populist language.

It's sort of being directed to a very sort of conventional or traditional conservative policy approach, very much in line with Harper. And young people like that? I mean, using it to justify, you know, a very sort of individualistic approach, small government, free markets, so forth. Whereas in other countries, in Europe and the United States, you're seeing precisely that same rhetoric

used towards a very kind of contrasting set of policies, something much more communitarian, much more exclusionary, including much more of an expansion, expanding state, I should say. And I mean, I think, I think it seems to me that this is a more of a short-term trend. I'm skeptical of the fact that we're going to see young people as a whole shift, simply because much of this is anti-liberal sentiment. But, I mean, there are some divisions emerging amongst the Canadian population between different cultural and economic groups that I think you can see young people as they age get sorted into. David, go ahead.

Well, I was just going to say, I mean, hard times increase voters' willingness to experiment, right? And I think that's what we're seeing right now. I don't think we can say with any certainty that this is a long-term trend in which young Canadians are going to embrace the Conservatives and it's going to be part of their, you know,

life behavioural when they vote. And the other thing that's interesting about younger Canadians is that they don't fit neatly into any ideological box, right? So in the polling that I do, when I ask them and I compare them, let's say 18 to 35 year olds to everyone older than them, they are more likely to want to see a balanced budget, but they are far more likely to say, I want to see social justice, inclusion, diversity as part of my government's agenda. They are much more willing and want their government to move the economy to a clean energy future,

but they're the most likely to say, I'm okay if you experiment with private healthcare delivery. So there's these contradictions in the normal sense that we think about politics in Canada. That means when any one of these issues becomes more salient at any given time, they might react positively or negatively to political option. So what I think is happening here is, first and foremost, this is very much a rejection of the Liberals and disappointment in the state of their life.

And Pierre Polyev is speaking almost entirely about those scarcity issues, which is why, like all Canadians, they're embracing him and the Conservative Party. Josie, I want to ask you about fairness. And we know that there is no place for fairness in politics. It's just unfair, like life. But I think it's fair to say that all of the problems that ail this country right now are not all Justin Trudeau's fault. If it rains, it's not his fault, but he'll get blamed for it anyway. So having said that, do you think it's fair, maybe a silly question to ask, but do you think it's fair at the moment for young people to say, you know what, homes are too expensive, inflation's too high, I'm not getting the job I want, opportunity isn't there, and it's all your fault, Prime Minister Trudeau. Is that fair?

Well, governing is hard. And that's why, you know, Justin Trudeau has been in the hot seat for so many years. But I just want to pick up on a point that David was talking about. And I want to state the Conservatives have been running on the economy for the last decade, since, you know, the former Harper government years. This is a message that they have tried to communicate to voters. The time and place wasn't right. And Jade's pointed out other issues were fundamental to kind of what they were voting on.

And I'm thinking of the environment as an example. And now the time has come when the voter mindset has shifted and they are looking for a credible alternative that can correctly diagnose how they're feeling about the issues of the day and that firmly rests with cost of living. That rests with housing. And fundamentally, they want to see somebody shift the focus to the economy.

And Justin Trudeau, you know, as much as he is trying to talk about this and spend the money to try and fix the problem, it is just not working. And that is why I think we are seeing this fundamental shift of young voters switching over to Pierre Palliet and the Conservatives. All right, Jade, I want to go at that again, though. Do young people understand that not every bad thing that happens in Canada 24-7 is Justin Trudeau's fault? Well, I would say it's hard because not all young people are in politics. So I think those that are in politics understand it firsthand because they're in it. They see what's happening.

But from the outside, it's hard for them to really understand that it's not all just Justin Trudeau. There's other factors on the outside that, you know, are the reasons why we're in this economy. But they seem to be taking it out on him more than anybody else. Because they don't really understand what the other factors are. Like, I just don't think they're well equipped or educated within politics to understand that he's not, he is the bad guy, but he's not the only bad guy. Does your polling pick any of that up? Well, first, I think you said, do young Canadians think? I think you should expand that to all Canadians, because I think most Canadians do blame policy choices that all governments, but the federal government's the highest profile, so it gets

more of the blame for this. But I think, what I think is happening is that the Conservatives right now are doing what Justin Trudeau did in 2015, which a little bit more negative and a little bit more diagnostic of a more challenging time. I think in 2015, voters were looking for optimism, and Justin Trudeau was the perfect person to tap into that. But they're also setting up another cycle that we've just experienced, where if you are promising the world, basically, you're promising that every community is going to have all the houses we need, and that cost of living is instantly just going to become affordable, I think there's going to be a lot of disappointment on the other end of the next federal election if the Conservatives win.

Because the things that we are talking about are hard to fix, right? You had a federal budget that invested more money in housing than we've ever seen, and we can debate about whether it was the right policy choices or not, but the young Canadians who are hoping to be able to afford their rent are not really going to see the effects of that budget for five to six years, and by then, they're at a different stage in their life. And so that's the tough part with connecting politics with public policy. And all of the issues we're grappling with today, governments have almost no levers in which they can solve them. And that is the fundamental problem. Well, let me pick up on that with you,

Tina, because you do a lot of international travel. So you surely know that young people everywhere in the world right now are dealing with a lot of the after effects of the issues we've been talking about. High deficits for a long time, difficulty funding social programs, inflation running too high, labor shortages, which caused the price of things. I mean, all of this is happening everywhere. And yet they still blame Trudeau for everything. Is that reasonable? Well, I don't think it's fair to blame, you know, Prime Minister Trudeau for all the problems that we're having. And I don't think all young people in Canada think that way either. You know, I do see a lot of informed

and engaged young people in my classroom every year, you know, and they are still very passionate about, you know, the future of Canada and where we're going, and they are willing to work hard. Now, the problem, I think, Steve, is that it is very difficult for them to be successful under the current set of circumstances.

And surely we have seen, you know, disgruntled youth before and, you know, protests and what have you. But this is different. I do think that it is a uniquely Canadian situation that we're seeing right now where we have, you know, the biggest housing bubble in Toronto in the world, right? Where it's almost difficult, if not impossible for young people in their 20s after undergrad to buy a new home or to even rent something decent, right? This is a very Torontonian problem that my students are facing, and they really honestly don't have a solution for it. And I think- Well, can I suggest one solution? Now, they may not like this solution, but't have a solution for it. And I think... Well, can I suggest one solution?

Now, they may not like this solution, but it is a solution. There's no section of the Constitution that guarantees you the right to an affordable home in the city of Toronto. Is it possible they may have to go somewhere else? They are. They are going elsewhere. But that also means they can't work in the city center or it's very difficult for them to do so. And, you know, I think how we capture the hearts and minds of the young people who are willing to work hard and not only make ends meet, but be successful in our society is really the challenge here. Because, you know, I may not personally agree with the messages of Mr. Poliev on his YouTube channels, but if you're a young person just very angry about the state of

life in Canada, it is very attractive because he offers an alternative vision to what you're dealing with. Okay, we've got a few minutes. can I just make one comparison? And this whole blame Trudeau, I think he deserves some of the fault, not in the choices he's made, but the way he's addressed it. He did a podcast last summer, the CBC podcast, and it was about housing. And he used the term when the host asked, what do you say to young Canadians who can't afford a home? And he says, my heart breaks for them. And I thought, like, that's not the kind of language you want to do to demonstrate empathy. And when we compare Mr. Trudeau...

Wait a minute, what? That sounds very empathetic. It's what I feel like a prince says in his castle about his subjects. Not like, I'm rolling my sleeves up every day to do everything I can to do it. And where I think if you compare Mr. Trudeau with Premier Ford, for example, here in Ontario, Mr. Ford's willing to admit when he's made mistakes almost every day, it seems.

Justin Trudeau hasn't really said to people, not just I understand what you're going through, but maybe everything we've done hasn't made things better. And I think that is the biggest barrier to him rebuilding a relationship with young Canadians because he simply is refusing to admit that anything he's done has helped contribute to the problem. Okay, with a few minutes to go here, let's find where the rubber hits the road here. And I'm going to put this on the record. Young people for years and years and years have complained about the state of things in Canada that don't focus on them enough. And yet when election day comes, they don't show up to vote. They've broken the hearts of every campaign manager in this country. So Josie, to you first. Young people, I get it. They're very unhappy right now. They think Pierre Poliev might be their champion. Are they actually going to show up

on voting day, whenever that is, and put an X on a ballot? Well, having been, you know, part of those war room campaigns, my heart has been broken time and time again for this exact reason. But I think when the rubber hits the road and things matter, young people will come out to vote. We saw this in 2015, you know, and that was the decider for Justin Trudeau. That's because he legalized marijuana. They can't do that one again. decider for Justin Trudeau. That's because he legalized marijuana. They can't do that one again. Well, now they want to host. So I think that they're going to have to cast that ballot and really come together and make change if that's what they want to see in their government and their representatives. Jade, what do you say? Are young people finally going to get off their couches and vote? Yeah, well, you've seen it firsthand at by-elections in Ontario.

You've seen it at the... What do you mean I've seen it firsthand at by-elections in Ontario. You've seen it at the... What do you mean I've seen it firsthand with by-elections in Ontario? We've seen it firsthand. The turnout was terrible. But we have like, maybe they won't come out to vote, but they have supporters. All the young people come out and work on these campaigns. They come out and they help canvas for Polyev's Common Sense Canvas Day. And so I do think they're getting more engaged now. And I do think that if they want to change, they will come out and they will come out and vote for our new prime minister. You think so? I hope so. But, you know, we could also consider what Australia is doing, which is you are fined if you don't show up on the voting day.

And there is a clear financial incentive for people to show up. And turn out 99 percent as a result. Yeah. Sam, what do you think? I mean, it's hard to say. Sam, what do you think? I mean, it's hard to say. I mean, but with that being said, I mean, the Conservatives, given the amount of support they have amongst younger people and Canadians in general, really don't need too many of them to show up to benefit from it.

And also, too, what really matters, I think, is not so much the turnout they're going to get now, but it's the turnout they're going to get in four years, which will be the real test of the extent and the depth of that support. Let me get David finally on this. Do you think they're going to show up? I'm skeptical. I mean, I've studied voting behavior. I think 2015 was an anomaly. I mean, it's been sustained in higher turnout among younger people over the course of the next two elections. But I think since the pandemic, we've seen across the board, Canadians generally, but particularly young people, I think just being just less engaged in their community. And I worry that despite how much they want a change, that the way our politics is working is going to turn a lot of people off by the time we get to that vote. As I often say at the end of this program, we shall see. Mr. Director, can I have a shot of

all of our guests, please? As I thank Tina Park, David Coletto, Josie Sabatino, Sam Routley, and Jade Kossum for coming onto our program tonight. It's been great having you all here. Thank you. Thanks, Stephen. Thank you. Thank you. The Agenda with Steve Paikin is made possible through generous philanthropic contributions from viewers like you. Thank you for supporting TVO's journalism.