The Agenda with Steve Paikin (Audio) - Will Ford's Early Election Bet Pay Off?

Episode Date: January 30, 2025

Ontario's 44th election has been called. There will be many issues discussed between now and election day, February 27. But clearly the big issue for discussion on Day One is: Can the premier justify calling this election nearly a year and a half before he needed to? For insight, we welcome: JOHN MYKYTYSHYN, a Conservative political consultant and public-opinion researcher; KIM WRIGHT, principal and founder of Wright Strategies and an NDP strategist; DAN MOULTON, partner at Crestview Strategy and Liberal strategist; SABRINA NANJI, journalist and founder of Queen's Park Observer; and RICHARD SOUTHERN, Queen's Park reporter for 680 NewsRadio.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I'm Matt Nethersole. And I'm Tiff Lam. From TVO Podcasts, this is Queries. This season, we're asking, when it comes to defending your beliefs, how far is too far? We follow one story from the boardroom to the courtroom. And seek to understand what happens when beliefs collide. Where does freedom of religion end and freedom from discrimination begin? That's this season on Queries in Good Faith,

a TVO original podcast. Follow and listen wherever you get your podcasts. And they're off. Premier Doug Ford visited Edith Dumont yesterday, advising the Lieutenant Governor to dissolve the legislature and draw up the writs for this, our 44th general election. There will be myriad issues that we will discuss between now and election day, which is February

27th, but clearly the big issue for discussion on day one is can the premier justify calling this election nearly a year and a half before he needed to? Let's get some analysis of that with John McEtishen, conservative political consultant and public opinion researcher. Kim Wright, principal and founder of Right Strategies and an NDP strategist. Dan Moulton, partner at Crestview Strategy and a liberal strategist.

Richard Southern, Queens Park reporter for 680 News Radio. And Sabrina Nanji, journalist and founder of the Queens Park Observer. And it's great to have the cast of Ben Hur here at our table here today. We got so much wisdom starting with, no, no, I'm not gonna start with you guys. We're gonna give the cast of Ben Hur here at our table today. We got so much wisdom starting with no, I'm not going to start with you guys, we're going to give the premier the first word

here, shall we? Sheldon, if you would, a clip. Right now, President Trump has put uncertainty to every single Canadian, a lot of other countries around the world, and this isn't going to happen overnight.

It may not happen February 1. I'm sure something is coming. a lot of other countries around the world. And this isn't going to happen overnight. It may not happen February 1. I'm sure something is coming. But this is going to be a battle for the next four years. And I want to make sure that I have a strong mandate to outlast President Trump.

Let's go around the table and find out, John, to you first, how legitimate a reason is this for calling an early election? Any time a premier decides it's time for an election, let's go around the table and find out, John, to you first, how legitimate a reason is this for calling an early election? Anytime a Premier decides it's time for an election, it is all the legitimacy he needs. That is legally true, constitutionally true, traditionally true, but he's still got to make a sale to the people of Ontario. Well, the whole election, any election, is about one thing, and that's the ballot question. So the Premier's come out with the Trump effect and he has said that the new president is an existential threat to the humanity, specifically Ontario, and that's why he needs another four year mandate to match Trump's term.

What will be interesting is, I expect the Premier to be re-elected, is when Trump gets constitutional revision so he can go for a third term, if the Premier will be re-elected is when Trump gets constitutional revision so he can go for a third term if the premier will be going again in four years. That is a very mischievous thing for you to say. Kim, your view on this. Look, the premier has been telegraphing this. It's crass politics. They've been telegraphing this since it was warm outside in June and July that this was

going to be it. This is why they had the rebate checks, the dug bucks, were supposed to land at the same time as the writs were being issued. Although many people will now know that those checks are bouncing much like the electioneering promises we've heard from the Premier over the last few days. They're not worth the paper they're printed on. Bouncing? What do you mean? That some of those checks when people are going to cash them aren't being honored. So it becomes slightly problematic when you're giving rebates to the electorate not being

able to follow through on those. Now they're trying to say there are all sorts of reasons and blaming all sorts of other folks but much like the election, flurry of election promises we've heard and press releases over the last couple of days, not worth the paper they're printed on. Dan? Look, Doug Ford wants this election to be about Donald Trump. I think the reality is the reason this election was called early is because of Tim Houston. The reality is that the Premier of Nova Scotia called an election last year.

A lot of the same people advised the Premier of Nova Scotia to go for an early election, and it worked out for him. The same people advised Doug Ford, go for an election early, it's going to work out for you. And that's the reason we're in an election right now. John's right. I mean, it's incumbent on the Liberals and the other opposition parties to reframe the question of this election on the ballot box to be about Doug Ford.

That's what this has to be about, because he's the least popular Premier in Canada. People are upset about the fact they can't get a family doctor. And if they show up voting on those issues, we're going to see a very different outcome than the one that was just the legislature that was just dissolved. Okay. You three are the partisan supporters. Let's find out from the neutral objective journalists what you're hearing out there in terms of the legitimacy of the early call. Sabrina, what are you hearing? Yeah, I think what we saw today on day one of the campaign was a race to define the race. Obviously Doug Ford thinks the ballot box question is

about Donald Trump and the threat of terrorists. To Kim's point though, this is something that he has refused to rule out since last May. If you ask his political rivals, NDP's Mart Stiles, liberals Bonnie Cromby or the Greens Mike Schreiner, they say this is self-serving. Doug Ford already has a majority mandate and what he needs to fight the tariffs, they're willing to support him on a tariff fighting plan. They think that he's just trying to get out ahead of whatever the RCMP is looking into

into the green belt, that it's politically advantageous for him to go to the polls before the feds for many reasons. We know that Queen's Park tends, Ontario tends to elect opposites at Queen's Park and the Hill. So there's a lot of reasons why this would be advantageous for Doug Ford. I think, as my co-panelists have pointed out, the onus is now on his rivals to remind people that we've had this premier for the last six years, and are they happy with the state of healthcare, education, cost of living? So it really feels like it's a race to define the race.

For sure. I mean, I'll be honest, I think there's a political risk for the premier using this justification. And I think, you know, my fellow reporters may have poked some holes in that rationale just today on day one of the campaign when they said, okay, you want a mandate to deal with Donald Trump? Well, have you arranged a meeting with him yet? He announced the tariffs weeks ago. No, he hasn't.

Did you meet with him during his first mandate when he also levied tariffs against Canada? No, I didn't meet with him or talk to him at the time. You know, I don't think Donald Trump cares who the premier of Ontario is. And I would suggest maybe a lot of Ontarians understand it's kind of a federal issue to deal with Trump. So I think there's some risk for the premier in doing this. And maybe some of it shone through on day one of the campaign today.

Let me follow up with John on that. Mr. Ford did say at one point, can you imagine Bonnie Crombie or Mara Stiles across the table from Donald Trump negotiating on tariffs? It would be an absolute disaster. Which presupposes, of course, that he will be doing that when we all know he really won't be doing that. So how far does that explanation really go? Well, okay, so two parts of that. What do you say that the Premier will follow in the footsteps of all the Premiers who have gone before

and negotiated deals with past presidents of the United States, or you could say, it doesn't really matter what he says. It's what do people believe? What do they think? Who do they want? So in an instance where you think you're worried about the future and what Trump might mean for Canada, it comes down to who is the person you want to be premier, that you believe whatever the role is would be the best spokesperson, what Trump might mean for Canada, it comes down to who is the person you want to be premier

that you believe whatever the role is would be the best spokesperson, the best representative to protect you. No, but that's what's really cynical about this decision to call the early election, is that Donald Trump isn't going to know who Doug Ford is through his entire four years in office. He's not going to sit across the table and negotiate with him. Doug Ford's never going to be involved

in a conversation like that. What he's preying on is an expectation that the electorate aren't going to sit across the table and negotiate with him. Doug Ford's never going to be involved in a conversation like that. What he's preying on is an expectation that the electorate aren't going to really care. They're not really going to tune into this election, and we're going to have as low voter turnout as we did in the last election. Which all of us know is extremely low. It is cynical.

And it's cynical that he called this election in the first place. That's the trouble that I'm trying to raise here. We had about 40% turnout in the last election. I mean, but there are writings where it was as low as 24%. I'm trying to raise here. We had about 40% turnout in the last election. But our ratings were as low as 24%, right? I mean, across the GTA, there were 24% turnout in Brampton and places like that.

It was very, very low numbers. And I think that's the risk that the premier is going to be coming up against, is if we don't see that low turnout, people might show up with a different result. The big risk too is that, is he talking about the issues that Ontarians really care about? I mean you look at the polling, people care about you know health care, I think affordability is number one and these are issues that the premier, you know the opposition would say

is maybe a bit weak on and here he is talking about Trump. I think that is could be a risk for him. Having said that Kim, the premier, as John said, legally, constitutionally, is entitled to call the election when he wants to. We have a fixed election date law, but there's a loophole in it allowing him to go early. He is exercising what you might call his home court advantage. Isn't he entitled to do that? Sure.

That's the crass politics. When you're the Premier, you get to call the election when you want. Now, all of that being said, Mahert Stiles and the New Democrats have been fired up and ready to go on this election campaign. We've seen this on day one, the difference of how Marit Stiles showed up at her campaign launch versus, you know, with a crowd around her, with really great energy talking about her skills as a negotiator against U.S. multinationals. You know, the things that matter, the things that brought her here from Newfoundland,

originally a better life for her and her family. She also pointed out that Premier Ford, Doug Ford, has not been that good of a negotiator when it comes to deals like Ontario Place and the Science Centre that have left Ontarians lagging. But I also say that when I've looked at where the donors are coming from, where the candidates are coming from, where the race is going to intensify, you know, she raised about, she's got about ten million dollars sitting in a campaign war chest raised by 220,000 unique individual donors from across the province. Those are arms and legs that get us into

traditional and non-traditional NDP territory. Even if it's minus five outside? Even when it's minus five, you know, these are folks who will go out, go knock on those doors. They've got their toe warmers and their hand warmers. They're ready to go and they're out on the hustings now and it's really a fascinating place and the comparison that we saw today, this introduction to Ontarians that the first day of the campaign brings where you had Mauret Stiles and then you had Bonnie Crombie. Now Mauret Stiles knocked it out of the park, Bonnie Crombie was standing in a parking lot and basically trying to hold on to her hat. It wasn't quite the good image. Equal time for Dan on that one.

Well, I think Bonnie's coming up on this program very soon and she'll deliver, I think, the clear message she's going to deliver throughout the campaign. And the reality is that voters in this province know who Bonnie Cromby is. They haven't got an idea who the leader of the New Democrat Party is. She hasn't shown up to work for the last four years. I know that your viewers know who she is, but the reality is people across this province know who Bonnie Cromby is because she's an electric leader.

She's got a lot of charisma, a heck of a lot more than we had as liberals in the last election. I think we're gonna see a very different outcome in a very different 28 days ahead of us. Is this why she couldn't find a seat to run in just out of curiosity? Because she's kind of been figuring that out

for the last several months. Like, Mississaugans were, you know... Well, Bonnie left her job as mayor of Mississauga last year. She's going to run in Mississauga. And I know she said that being leader has been hard for her. And I appreciate that. So it was apparently finding a seat because she doesn't really have one yet. Well, she's running in Mississauga, East Cooksville, for the record.

And we're going to talk to her about it when she comes up after this. I want to ask you about winter elections, Sabrina. This is the first wintertime election we're having in this province in 44 years. There is generally an acknowledgement by most parties that you don't want a winter election because no one wants to canvas in a winter election and nobody wants to stand with an open door when it's cold out, when candidates come knocking on your door. It's really, I had a candidate the other day say, how am I gonna get my signs in the lawn?

Are you hearing any catching out there about that kind of stuff? I have heard that from MPPs, from canvassers and organizers who aren't looking forward to going in and knocking on doors in frigid temperatures. I had one campaign manager tell me that he's going to be working really hard to get those signs into a frozen ground. Another one suggested that it's easy to just stick them in a snowbank, but I think you've raised a good point.

We heard from the chief electoral officer today, Greg Ascensa, about contingency plans in place in case there's a blizzard on E-Day and people can't get to the polls. I think we might see people voting during the advanced polls, but there are only three days of that because we're in this very short time period right now for the campaign. It's a snap vote. So instead of the 10 days for advanced voting, there's only going to be three. And we know that in the last election in 2022, turnout was essentially in the toilet.

And now we know that low turnout tends to favor incumbents. Those are the conservatives. And I think that's probably not lost on the strategists as well. You're right, of course you're right. You're the encyclopedia when it comes to Ontario political knowledge. That the most recent winter election was in 1981.

But did you know there was an election held in Ontario on January, February 27th? Feb 27th. Yes. What year? You have no idea, Steve? Wait a second. In Feb 27th. I believe it was Feb 27th.

There was an Ontario election? Yes. 1883. Oh, I covered that one earlier. Oliver Mowat re-elected. So there really isn't a lot of precedents for a winter election, right? Well played, Richard. That was good. Stump the great Steve Pagan.

But I've heard the same thing that Sabrina's heard. There is concerns about the signs. MPPs have told me there's concern, too, about people not coming to the door to talk or not talking as long at the door. I would also suggest the Snowbird vote might not come in as well. So there's a lot of factors when you look at this. John, let me ask you, I want to know how concerned you are, because we're hearing it at this table here. Clearly the opposition parties want to enrage the electorate over the notion of an early,

they would say unnecessary, $175 million election call. Do you think that can be exploited for the opposition's purposes to the point where people will actually take it out on Doug Ford on e-day? So the first part is it's a two-part answer and the first part is first they have to be enraged. First they have to say why now? The cost is gonna be the cost but a year from now. So is this a needless election? But the second part of it, so not everybody will buy into that, and that's certainly a job for the opposition. But the second part of that is, OK, I'm

mad that there's an election today. I'm a conservative. I'd rather get my full four years out of the last election, and I'm really annoyed at the premier. But who do I think would be the best premier? Who do I think is the best candidate in this next election? And if your conclusion is I'm reading Noyde at the premier but he's still the best one, then he doesn't pay a price for that.

Then he still wins. Unless people sit at home, go on vacation, don't bother. Advanced polls, yes, that's a thing. But there's also another dynamic. You can go to the polls today and vote in your local returning office. That's one of the new things in the last couple elections come about. You do not have to wait. You just have to find out where your local office is, go in today, and if they don't even have the ballots ready, because candidates aren't real yet, because there's a few days for that to happen, you just write in a name and they will count your ballot on election night. So I'm not worried about that. And there's a second part, which is if I wasn't happy

with the Premier, who's better than him? Well, a lot of people aren't happy with the Premier. I mean, you look at the ranking of Premiers across the country, he has, though he's the least popular Premier in Canada. But who's better than him? We had Stiles, just to be clear. Well, I think that the voters are going to have an opportunity to take a look at their options in this election. But currently they don't know either of the leaders.

That's part of their problem. Well, I mean, the Conservatives spent a heck of a lot of money trying to besmirch Bonnie Cromby's name. They've put a huge amount of advertising spending into attack ads. To attack ads against her, trying to define her. And there's a reason for that. It's because people know who she is. She draws the attention of the media,

she gets in the Premier's head, and she's gonna be on the stage in a big way throughout this campaign. That is the expression, she lives rent free in the Premier's head. That's right. You have said that. Now Richard, I did not, believe it or not,

cover the election in 1883, but we wanna give a couple of examples here of previous elections where in fact the opposition parties did try to demonize an early election call and what in effect did transpire. These ones did take place in my lifetime actually. Sheldon, you want to bring up the first graphic here? Let's go back to 1975. The premier of the day was Bill Davis. His polls looked pretty good. He sat at 51 seats and he thought I'm gonna try for an early election call. So he did, not even two years later,

but as you can see from these graphics here, he went from 51 to 58 seats. Liberals and New Democrats switched second and third place, but essentially, he tried with an early election call to turn his minority into a majority and failed because the public said, uh-uh, not going to do it. And the second one is a little more recent, although still 35 years ago.

I like this one. This was Liberal Premier David Peterson, who had the biggest majority government in Ontario history in 1987, came in with 95 seats, called an early election after just three years, went down to a very bad second place, 36 seats. The NDP going from officially the opposition, but well, well back with only 19 seats

to a majority government status at 74, and the conservatives in third place in both of those elections. The point is, if on occasion you want to demonize the government for an early election call, it can work. Sabrina, are you seeing any signs out there that people can be made to be exercised about this? Yeah, I mean it's early days yet of course and this is going to be the line from the opposition.

They're calling this an unnecessary election, you know, plunging Ontario into chaos in an already chaotic times. The cost of the election will actually be $189 million because of inflation. The electoral officer told us that today. But you're right, you mentioned 1990 where that backfired on then liberal premier David Peterson and got us our first and only ever NDP government in this province. I think that you know there are vulnerabilities as Richard mentioned earlier for Doug Ford here. You know if these these you know if people see this as self-serving, then they might punish him, but I don't know

if that narrative is going to last throughout the campaign. Campaigns matter, there's a lot of other issues that are top of mind for people, cost of living, healthcare, housing, actually the Trump tariffs pull like around 5%, people say, it's not really that high on their radar right now. If you are spending a lot at the grocery store and you're worried about your kids

being able to afford a home, I don't know if you're really concerned with what Trump is doing south of the border. So we have seen this backfire and it could work against Doug Ford. So, Kim, if it turns out that the early election call actually doesn't tick off people so much at the end of the day, find another issue out there that you think you can exploit that the premier is more vulnerable on. He is absolutely vulnerable that two and a half million Ontarians do not have a family doctor. We saw this a couple of weeks ago just outside of London, Ontario. People lined up for hours in the snow in

Walkerton to try to get access to a family doctor that had said I will take the first 500 people. How have we gotten to this place in Ontario? You know, when we start to look at every municipality, large, medium, small, northern, southern, urban, rural, who are dealing with encampments, those are things that are squarely at the hands of the Premier, at the feet of this government, and they don't want to talk about that. They don't want to talk about the issues about being Premier of the province of Ontario.

The Premier wants to talk about everything but his responsibility. The Ontario at home, these are people who are getting palliative care at home. These are people who are getting home care, so they're not having to be in those hospitals that are cr are crumbling and closing down. They just fired the CEO. And they had to fire the CEO because people couldn't get IVs and pain pumps and gauze. This is a this was a government that talked about red tape reduction and the only tape that was reduced was that that was going to medical patients at home. Those fiascos are squarely at the at the fit of the other premier. Let me get Dan on that. If it's not the early election call, where do you think

he's vulnerable? Yeah I am less convinced the early election call is gonna be what voters show up thinking about on Election Day. But the reality is, reality is, early or not, this is a bad time to be an incumbent no matter where you are in the world. Right? Governments across the world are being defeated here at home in Canada. I mean we've seen it with Justin Trudeau, we saw David Eby have a much rougher ride in his election in British Columbia than anyone expected. And so the risk here is, I think, less in the early election call and more in being

an incumbent. When you have all of the problems in this province right now, Ontario isn't feeling great about health care, isn't feeling great about crime and safety, isn't feeling great about affordability and getting home and the encampments that Kim's talked about. Like, this is a really risky move, I think, on the part of the premier, simply because it is a dangerous time to be an incumbent government when you've got all these problems at your feet.

And I think it will be difficult for them to run away from a lot of the challenges that they've created in our health care system, in particular. John, where do you think he's vulnerable, if not on the early call? He's vulnerable on many things but only if they become ballot issues and I'm not convinced they they are I mean What was the big issue last year? Wasn't it housing and nobody's talking about housing now?

And is that because they figured it actually takes eight years to build something or 20 if you're in Toronto So, you know complex problems, but time. But what's the ballot question? Well, like for Ford, it's, you need me to protect you from Trump. For the other party, today, and here's the question, like early election call, unnecessary, wrong, punish the premier. Yeah, I don't think it's that. Well, no, the question for the parties is, how long do they stick with that before they give it up? I think three days. And what do they go to next? And I'm not sure they have anything. No, I think the liberals will spend a couple days on it.

I think that there will be some attention on an early election call, because it is topical. The media are going to be asking the premier about it. And then it shifts to health care. And health care, health care, health care is going to be what the liberals talk about the rest of the campaign. But at what point do you stop, as Bonnie Crabby talking

about your early election, do you want the premier to stay in his job as an opposition leader? If it sticks, Richard, in three days, they can make it stick and they can get people talking and upset about an early election call, they'll stick with it. Otherwise, they're going to pivot to healthcare. And they're going to talk about healthcare, healthcare, healthcare the entire time. We in the media gallery, of course, are going to continue to ask about that, but you're asking about issues the Premier may be or that Doug Ford may be vulnerable on, and the

Financial Accountability Office served one up I guess on on Monday and that's the story I've covered a lot of the alcohol and corner stores that it's costing Ontarians 600 million more dollars just to speed it up 400 days you know my fellow reporters asked the Premier about that today at his campaign launch in Windsor I argue we didn't have a great answer just that same talking point, well we want to bring more convenience to Ontarians. Is that an issue Ontarians care about? I don't know, but it's one he could be vulnerable on.

And it becomes the, where it becomes interesting is what could that opportunity cost have been? Had you spent the two billion dollars that you, you know, they've had to spend on Ontario Place, could that have been better served into recruiting more doctors? I mean, they had that flurry of announcements just before they went to the LG that said, oh, it would be 1.9 million. Okay. So if you're going to not spend on what Ontarians asked you to spend on, which is health care education, and instead get bad deals all over the place, then you shouldn't be

Premier. That's when it becomes who else is on that table? What is that energy? And where everything, everything before today became, was you know, in a sports analogy, was the regular season. Just the playoffs now. We're now in the playoffs and the playoffs are where everyone either steps up or goes home and what that's is why those launches today were so important being able to frame that who you want to have as your Premier and what does that start to look like so it becomes more of that. But if you go with that analogy, the regular season

has said the Premier is going to win the playoffs and win the championship because the other party leaders have failed miserably to turn the page to their agenda or their issues or their ballot question. My bigger concern, Steve, is that rather than an issue, it's going to be complacency. It's going to be like, yeah, I support the Premier. So a pollster calls me, hey, yeah, I support the premier. So a pollster calls me.

Hey, yeah, I'm supporting Doug. But when am I planning on going to vote? Oh, what's the weather? Doesn't matter what the weather is on February 27th, it's going to be cold. So maybe I don't worry about it, because I read all these polls that the premier is going to win a lot. And if you look at how the votes went in the last election,

the premier lost a lot of votes between the first and second elections. And if he is on track to lose even a percentage of that, it's going to be a very crazy election night. Sorry, Steve, go ahead. I actually want to go to you, Dan. I want to put the spotlight on Bonnie Cromby for a second here.

I'm going to ask her this question when she comes up after this discussion here. She's the only major party leader who, till now, has not had a seat. So she had to make a decision about where to run. She decided Mississauga East Cooksville is the seat she is going to seek. It's an open seat at the moment.

There's no former sitting member there. The Conservatives are running Patrick Brown's mother-in-law against her, which is an interesting choice. What's going on there? Can you sort of scratch below the surface on the subtext of the drama going on there? No, you know, I'm not an expert in Mississauga politics, but Bonnie Cromby sure is. She was elected by big majorities to the position of mayor in that city for many years.

And I think she's going to perform very well in that seat and perform very well in that region. I mean, this is a region that liberals need to win back. It's a core part of when liberals form government. They do very well in Peel region. It's going to be really important that she performs well there. I think she is able to connect with that community.

But it's also a community that votes with momentum, right? And I think this is where the reality is voters aren't going to really tune into this election. Your viewers are. You've got well-educated and tuned in voters, Steve. Most voters in this province aren't gonna pay attention until probably after Family Day, when we have a debate and we have sort of the final leg of the campaign.

And the reality is, who's got the momentum going into that final week is gonna be really important. And you're right, if the polls are the same as they are now, the Premier looks like he's going to run away with it, you know, that will certainly demotivate his voters, demotivate a lot of voters, frankly. But if Bonnie Cromby can get some momentum heading into the weeks after Family Day as the obvious challenger to Ford,

which voters in this province, no Liberals are, I think we'll have a really good shot on Election Day. I want to ask Sabrina about this. We know that there is a great rivalry between Bonnie Cromby when she was the mayor of Mississauga and Patrick Brown as the mayor of Brampton. They're the two big mayors in Peel region and they had very different visions for the future of Peel region. The conservatives won every seat in Halton, Peel and York in the last election.

How big a risk do you think it is for Bonnie Cromie to try to run and win a seat in Mississauga? I mean, obviously, I think Bonnie Crombie is very popular in Mississauga, right? Like, she was the former mayor there. But at the same time, the conservatives picked up a lot of those seats in Brampton and Mississauga. They poached those seats from the NDP in 2022 as well. So, you know, I think Mississauga East Cooksville,

when you look at 2022, you know, that was Mississauga East Cooksville, when you look at 2022, you know, that was the closest race in the region. You mentioned, you know, former conservative Khalid Rashid is no longer there. So it does seem like it would be her safest bet in that spot. But you're right, there's no love lost between her and Patrick Brown. And now that, you know, Patrick Brown's mother-in-law

is running against her, who's also a very good organizer, too, you know, in local PC circles there. I mean, she's definitely got her work cut out for her. They're not going to make it easy for her. The conservatives, as has been mentioned, have been spending millions of dollars, you know, on attack ads and targeting those in the 905. The 905 can make or break governments. And to Dan's point, that is a crucial region for all of the parties.

The NDP, you know, wants to take back that territory. The PC's need to hold on to it. And the Liberals, if they even want to make recognized party status, which they don't have, which you need 12 seats for, it comes with a lot of resources and money, makes your job as a party leader a lot easier. I think that's a crucial region for all parties. Now we've got to put something to you about your party and your leader.

I'm excited. We've had 43 elections in the province of Ontario and 41 of them have been won by liberals and conservatives. Hear, hear. Only two not. I put this to Merit Stiles last time I did a one-on-one with her in the studio and she is well aware of the history and the math.

How does the NDP make a breakthrough in a province which only once in 157 years has given them the keys to the throne at Queens Park? So when I start to look at what happened in 1990, right, we were in this trade battle with the United States. This was an existential threat for a lot of communities like my own hometown that has a manufacturing base that was going to be challenged by that. Ontarians also looked at what was being put on offer.

What were the alternatives and the new Democrats were bringing forward really great ideas on housing, on healthcare, all sorts of things. So here's fast forward. I look at at what Mart Styles is bringing to the table. Again, that campaign war test, those 220,000 unique donors across the province going into unconventional or non-traditional New Democrat places over the last while, getting a really great reception. Understanding that when somebody asks me about province-wide polling, two things I'll say about that. This is a very big province and the regional

breakdowns are quite interesting. This is a battle of Kitchener, Waterloo to Windsor. This is a Northern Ontario battle. This is places even like Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke where the New Democrats came in second last time and will come back stronger because it's now also an open seat. People are seeing what Mara launched today and people were going, who is she? This is interesting. Let's go. In which case, how come the premier never mentions her? How come all the ads are only about the liberals? That's right.

Because why would you want to give oxygen of the person you're actually afraid of? Oh, please. Come on, Kim. You're really reaching now. Look, what I'll say is the only time you... With all due respect, Dad. With all due respect, Dad. respect, Dad, with all due respect for your interruption of me, I mean you made the same big swings and a miss with Steven DelDuca last time who couldn't get a seat, didn't have a seat, couldn't win a seat. I've seen people like John Tory, former PC leader, who didn't have a seat going, I'm going to take on Kathleen Wynne.

Bonnie does not have momentum, a seat. She couldn't get people to show up around her today. And I appreciate that you're going to go and say, but the polls, the province-wide polls, last election, the New Democrats and the liberals had almost exactly the same polling on election day. And the New Democrats were official party and had all sorts of seats and you didn't have an official party again. Let's let Dan respond. So, you know, I'll emphasize the fact that the Premier talks about Bonnie Cromby a lot,

the media talk about Bonnie Cromby a lot, the attack ads talk about Bonnie Cromby a lot. And there is a reason for that. It's because she's a charismatic, electric leader that people are gonna be paying a lot of attention to throughout this campaign. The only time that voters in this province voted for New Democrat, you talk about the one election when New Democrats won,

it wasn't because they had great ideas, it was because voters were fed up with the other two options and they protested. They accidentally elected Bob Rae Premier for five years. And look, it was a stunning victory at the time but it was a protest vote. It wasn't about anything else. People know in this province liberals are the only ones who can be consented. And if I can just add as someone who remembers watching that debate I went wow this young guy who's in a better

suit than the other two. This is Bob Ray you meant. Bob Ray. Bob Ray looked the part, he sounded the part. He was optimistic. And people in that election went, because I did a lot of polling back then, we'll give the new guy a try. Now, turned into a nightmare. And that's the question for me, for Merritt this time,

is if she is the same whiny, miserable, unhappy message of the last four campaigns, then they better have changed, shouldn't have changed leaders. If she comes out with optimism and some kind of positive policy presents a positive alternative, then I think that's true of either leader. I don't think voters have any idea that the NDP changed leaders. I think that's the reality. Running out of time here, and I want

to make sure, Richard, I get a chance to talk about the Greens as well, because they've got two seats right now. Mike Schreiner's in Guelph, Ashlyn Clancy's in Kitchener Center, which she won in a by-election. She's never actually won that in a general election. Do they have the potential of picking up a third seat or more in this election?

Well, Sabrina knows this in the media gallery at Queens Park. If you're looking for a clip, as we say, a good quote from a leader, you go to Mike Schreiner. The guy knows how to encapsulate a message. They have a strong leader, there's no question about that. Do they have enough traction to pick up another seat? I'm not so sure. I'd be interested to know what the politicals on the panel think about Schreiner maybe not taking that top liberal job. Do you think there's any regret in the Liberal Party or regret with Mr. Schreiner maybe not taking that top liberal job. Do you think there's any regret in the liberal party or regret with Mr. Schreiner? Liberals for Mike running? No, I don't think so. Look, look, he is a very nice guy.

He performs pretty well in the debates. The reality is Greens just can't translate their, you know, notional support that they might have out there into any sort of electoral success. I think voters tend to vote Green when they don't know how to vote for another party and they want to show up and vote. A couple of minutes to go. Let me ask John, do you first, if you're advising Doug Ford, do you tell him to skip the leaders debate because he's got such a big lead? It's in his best interest to skip the debate, but I'm not a personal believer in that.

I think you're, especially the Premier, you should be at the debates. I think that there's a problem, and certainly parties are insisting on this with all their candidates. Don't go to debates if you're the government, or the presumed government in the federal case. And I think that says something poorly about the parties, that they don't have faith in their candidates, they don't have faith in their training of the candidates and who they recruited to speak for the parties. And certainly Doug Ford is not afraid of anybody on any

given day and if he's, let's be clear, he's willing and able to sit across the table from Donald Trump, may not get the opportunity, but he's certainly gonna have no problem going to a debate. Gotcha. That's our time, friends. Mr. Director, can I get a wide shot so I can thank all of our guests for coming into TVO tonight for day one of the 44th general election in the province of Ontario? Stay safe on the hustings, everybody, and we'll see you by the 27th of February. Good night, all.