The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis - AI Companies Are Hiring More
Episode Date: July 2, 2026New data from Ramp, Revelio Labs, Box, and the Center for AI Safety complicates the AI jobs narrative: AI is automating more real work, but the companies using it most aggressively are also growing he...adcount faster. In the headlines: OpenAI reportedly floats giving the US government a stake in the company, Meta explores selling AI compute, and Fable 5 returns to mixed but intense reactions.Brought to you by:KPMG – Research from KPMG and the University of Texas at Austin shows the highest-impact AI users treat AI like a reasoning partner — and those skills can be taught at scale. Learn more at kpmg.com/us/SophisticatedHyperagent - Hire a fleet of always-on agents. New users get $1,000 in inference. hyperagent.com/aidailybriefRackspace Technology- One accountable partner to build, operate and run your full enterprise AI stack https://www.rackspace.com/Section - Section turns AI investment into workforce transformation and ROI - https://www.sectionai.com/Scrunch - The AI customer experience platform - https://scrunch.com/Blitzy - Want to accelerate enterprise software development velocity by 5x? https://blitzy.com/AssemblyAI - The best way to build Voice AI apps - https://www.assemblyai.com/briefRobots & Pencils - Cloud-native AI solutions that power results https://robotsandpencils.com/The AI Daily Brief helps you understand the most important news and discussions in AI. Subscribe to the podcast version of The AI Daily Brief wherever you listen: https://pod.link/1680633614Our Newsletter is BACK: https://aidailybrief.beehiiv.com/Interested in sponsoring the show? sponsors@aidailybrief.ai
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Today on the AI Daily Brief, the latest numbers on AI and jobs.
Before that, in the headlines, is OpenAI about to give 5% of the company to the U.S.
government?
The AI Daily Brief is a daily podcast and video about the most important news and discussions in AI.
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Well, all those conversations about AI companies getting more tied up with the government are getting
a lot more real. OpenAI has proposed handing over a 5% stake in the company to the U.S. government.
Now, obviously, there has been chatter about this for some time now. And honestly, if you go way, way back
in Sam Altman interviews from three or four years ago, it was clear at the very beginning of the
project that he thought this sort of pursuit of AI was something that inherently should have
government involvement from the very beginning. I can't find the exact interview, but I remember
thinking that he almost seemed surprised that the U.S. government wasn't interested in getting
involved back then. Now, coming back to the deal now, this potential 5% stake would be contributed
to a sovereign wealth fund, structured in a similar way to the Alaskan permanent fund which
collects oil and mining revenue for the benefit of citizens. At current valuation,
the stake would be worth around $42 billion, and it's unclear whether the administration would be
purchasing the stake or whether it would be a gift to the American people. The other wrinkle is that
OpenAI has proposed that all leading AI developers should contribute 5% of their equity. Beyond Anthropic,
this might include Google, meta, and others, and it's not clear that any of these other firms
would agree with OpenAI's proposal or if they're participating in discussions. The FT pointed to what
many people assume is a pretty clear quid pro quo, writing, giving the government an ownership state
could help secure good relations with the administration and would mark an attempt to address
political blowback by sharing the wealth generated by AI with the public. Now, in terms of handicapping
where these conversations are, sources said the discussions were still in the early stages,
referring to them as, quote, conceptual. They also added that such a deal might require an
act of Congress to implement, regarding this strange new era of tributary capitalism.
Also on Wednesday, memory producer Micron agreed to invest 250 million in Trump accounts,
the government funded investment accounts for children that were introduced last year.
On truth social, Trump declared Micron a, quote, truly great American company, one of the hottest
anywhere in the world, adding that this is, quote, the biggest corporate investment of its kind,
and will help jumpstart the American dream for these fabulous children as we celebrate America's
250th anniversary.
Trump accounts so far have been largely funded by individual philanthropy, including a $6.25 billion
donation from Dell CEO Michael Dell and his wife Susan, although other companies have made
smaller contributions to the program.
Look, it's pretty clear at this point that the Overton window on these sort of deals is shifting,
and I'm sure we'll have more context to talk about it in the future.
So before I say something that makes a big chunk of you angry, let's move on to the next story.
Meta is reportedly going down an Elon-ask path, planning to launch a cloud services business
as a way to monetize their excess AI capacity.
According to sources speaking with Bloomberg,
meta is developing plans to launch a cloud business that will sell access to their AI infrastructure.
One potential plan is selling access to models hosted on Meta's data centers,
similar to the AWS Bedrock platform, another approach would be to sell access to raw compute
along the same lines as neoclouds like Corweave.
Sources said the plans are still in development and subject to change, but they're far enough
along to have a name and a leadership team in place.
The business line will be called Meta Compute and is led by head of infrastructure,
Santos-Janorthan working alongside Daniel Gross of Meta-superintelligence Labs and President
Dina Powell McCormick.
Now careful listeners will know that this is not the first we've heard of this plan.
Back in May, Mark Zuckerberg told investors that the idea was definitely
on the table and that they'd been fielding requests from other companies. At the time, Zuckerberg said
no deals had been struck as meta had strong internal demand for all that compute. However, he mentioned
that external sales would be a natural outlet if meta overbuilt capacity. Now, this plan, of course,
mirrors Elon Musk's pivot to cloud. In early May, SpaceX signed a $1.25 billion a month deal to
provide compute to Anthropic. This was followed closely by deals with Google and later a more
modest deal with Reflection AI. These deals dramatically improved the bottom line for SpaceX, with
compute sales now estimated to be their primary revenue driver ahead of Starlink. And just as the
market liked Elon's moves, they seemed to like Zuckerberg's Bob and Weave as well. The report triggered
an immediate response, sending meta stock soaring by as much as 10% before closing the day up 8.8%. This was
meta's best single-day performance in six months. Neo-Cloud's Corweave and Nebius were pummeled,
losing 14% and 17% respectively. Jeffries called the plan strategic, comparing it to the early days of
AWS, where Amazon was able to monetize excess capacity from website hosting to help finance further
investment. Mizzuho wrote that they don't believe the business will be a meaningful short-term
revenue driver for META. Instead, they cast it, quote, more as planning for all potential scenarios,
including a plan B. Still, analysts wrote that compute sales would be an overall positive,
adding what they call a margin of safety to medium-term earnings. Now, on the finance corner of X,
the debate was raging. Some believe this will lead meta to cut back on CAPEX with the pivot
representing a tacit admission that they've overbuilt. The bullish view, however, is that
meta will finally deliver a solid revenue narrative for their AI spend while also cutting investment
costs, triggering a significant boost to earnings. Look, my guess is, as we've seen with
SpaceX, this does not mean the end of meta's efforts to train models or anything like that.
It's just taking advantage of a resource they've built. Writes Rune from OpenAI,
you either die a frontier lab or live long enough to see yourself sell compute.
Now, speaking of SpaceX, the Wall Street Journal reports that Space
showed investors a prototype of an AI device prior to IPO. The journal described it as a, quote,
handset-like device designed to reshape how humans interact with AI. They wrote that it's slimmer than
an iPhone, would run on a proprietary operating system, and would integrate technology from
XAI. Elon was quick to deny the reporting, calling it utterly false within minutes. And it's kind of
difficult to know what to make of the story. It could be Elon responding to Sam Altman's desire to
develop the dominant AI device. It could just be another part of the IPO hype train. Or it could be a new
vertical play from Elon Inc. SpaceX bought up a slice of the wireless spectrum in 2025,
and analysts have recently suggested that they should acquire T-Mobile as a way to break into the
mobile market. So are we going to see the combination of a mobile carrier, starling for mobile
internet, and an AI-first handset? Over in Anthropic land, the company has rolled back
spyware targeting Chinese labs after controversy erupted on Reddit. Earlier this week, a Reddit
user called Legit Michael wrote,
Anthropic embedded spyware in Claude Code and attempted to hide it from you.
They explained that since a software update in early April,
Claude Code has been checking whether users have a proxy enabled.
And if so, the software is covertly transmitting information back to Anthropic
through surreptitious changes to the system prompt.
Michael claimed the software will tell Anthropic whether a user is in China or even if a
user is associated with a Chinese lab.
This information was extrapolated from time zone settings and other metadata.
Now, we knew Anthropic was doing something to monitor the activities of Chinese lab,
reportedly using their models for distillation. Their recent letter to Congress and prior research
reports had specific numbers that implied some level of usage monitoring. And despite the Claude
auto moderator on the Reddit page calling this a nothing burger, Claude co-developer Tariq announced
that this approach had been rolled back, posting, this is an experiment we launched in March that
was meant to prevent account abuse from unauthorized resellers and protect against distillation.
The team has landed stronger mitigation since then, and we've actually been meaning to take this
down for a while. We've merged the PR and this should be fully rolled back in tomorrow's release.
Now, I think the thing to keep an eye on here is not so much Anthropic trying to decrease
Chinese distillation, it's another reminder of the visibility Anthropic has into the work
being done on their systems.
And yet, if anyone does have concerns about Anthropic, they're certainly being shoved
to the side right now as everyone flocks excitedly back to Fable.
After an early morning of mashing the refresh button, users regained access to Fable 5
on Wednesday, and it seems just as good as people remembered.
Elvis Sun wrote,
Fable 5 is so effing good.
Here's everything I did in the last two hours.
One, audit my business, found three high ROI tactical things to work on,
mostly narrowing down on retention and acquisition levers.
Two, solved my hardest backend problem that Codex and Opus were too dumb to crack despite
many attempts.
Three, solved my hardest engineering problem with media list agent reliability and future design
directions.
Four, designed a content engine I've been trying to build.
Honestly, I'm starting to feel Fable is smarter than me.
The future of this is getting pretty weird.
Andrew McAllop tweeted,
Fable is an absolute monster. The output quality is wild, crisp, comprehensive fast, and the aesthetics
are just gorgeous. It's just machine-gunning PRs. I don't mean to gush, but I'm floored. I don't need a
benchmark chart telling me, actually, Sweet Bench Pro is two points higher. If you can't viscerally feel
a model's performance by now, no chart is going to help you. Still, one of the big questions
for the re-release was how often Fable would kick benign coding tasks over to Opus, and on that
front, the reports are pretty mixed. Some are complaining that it is happening near constantly.
Bobos wrote, Fable is mega-nerfed. Two chats on different projects, each routed 4 to 10x more tokens
through Opus than Fable. Fable did only 20% of the work. WTF, disappointing, is anyone else seeing
this? On the flip side, BridgeMind also noted that quite a lot of their work was being routed
to Opus, commenting, I just paid $321 for a coding session where Fable 5 refused to do the work.
And yet others like analyst Max Weinbach wrote that after a few hours of working, he was yet
to have Fable refuse a request.
Now, other people are focused on figuring out the best way to get full value out of Fable.
AI content creator Theo, for example, found that it was at its best when running other
agents, commenting, it's the first model that feels like it actually gets how to use and
orchestrate agents. It has way more taste than Open AI models, so the code it writes is way
less cringe. I won't ship APIs or SDKs without Fable taking a look first.
Going back to the point that I was making yesterday, policy richer Miles Brandage suggested
that having Fable as an orchestrator makes the Sonnet 5 release make a lot more sense.
Taking a step back, Professor Ethan Mollick wrote,
Been reading all sorts of posts about the best way to develop workflows for Fable,
and it reminds me of how little we actually know about the best way to organize work for long-running agents.
Nobody has enough experience or has done enough testing to reach any real conclusions.
In other words, figuratively and literally, we are still on day one of figuring out how this new class of models work.
And in welcome news late on Wednesday, Anthropic reset weekly usage limits so users can experiment a bit more.
However, that's going to do it for the headlines.
Next up, the main episode.
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slash AI Daily Brief.
Welcome back to the AI Daily Brief.
Today we are checking in on the AI and jobs narrative.
We actually haven't had all that much of this for a while,
but there are a couple of new interesting studies
that are providing some more information in the unending question
of what AI is and will do when it comes to jobs and employment.
The first is a new report from the Center for AI Safety
suggesting that FABEL is,
a step change in AI's ability to do real work. The report was an update to the center's
remote labor index. The benchmark measures a model's ability to compete economically valuable
tasks drawn from common freelance professions. The tasks include 3D modeling, architecture, graphic
design, video and audio editing, data analysis, and programming web apps. Now, it makes the index
interesting is that whereas something like the meter long horizon task test uses something like 50 or 80%
as the standard metric, for the remote labor index, it measures a model's ability to do these tasks
at a quality that a paying client would accept. Every deliverable that is tested is judged by
human evaluators against what they call a gold standard deliverable, which was produced by a paid
professional, meaning that this is a much harder test to score well on. GPT-55, for example, only scored a
6.3%, with Opus 48, just a little bit ahead of that at 8.3%. Fable represents a much more than a much
a big jump up, coming in at 16.1%. When they first ran the benchmark late last year,
GBT 5.2 was the top performer at 2.5%, meaning that in a very short period of time, the numbers
have increased significantly. The center wrote, The Frontier has more than quadrupled in under
eight months, a concrete signal of how quickly economically capable AI agents are advancing.
The pace of improvement is also clearly evident in the examples offered by the center. Some of the
examples they gave were photorealistic renders of rings, producing an advertisement video for
an imaginary company called Skyline Tree Services that needed to be a 60-second flat design 2D animated
advertisement with a voiceover provided. Finally, there were floor plan renders. Now, to be clear,
completing 16% of freelance tasks at a professional level is very different to being able to do
16% of all human jobs. The center itself was even critical about their own findings, writing,
today's AI still fall short of professional quality on most projects. However, they added,
this increase in automation rate has been rapid occurring in less than a year. The index spans
a wide range of economically valuable work, so this trend directly captures how quickly the
automation of remote work is advancing. Now, interestingly, although most people agree that
the exponential increase is impressive, there are wildly different interpretations of the implications.
On one end of the spectrum, you have folks like V who write, remote workers and freelancers need to think
twice. This benchmark shows just how high the success rate of AI models can be in handling
digital tasks, such as creating 3D models, ad videos, rendering house floor plans, etc. Even though
Fable 5 is still considered low, it won't be long before this number climbs higher. It's becoming
harder and harder to deny that digital work can be automated by AI. On the other end,
you have folks like Scott who writes, even Fable 5 is still at a 16% automation rate. That means
84% of the time human is needed. In my opinion, the real work has complexities orthogonal to what
current AI systems can cover and require a fortress of priors that are given for humans but
not inherently installed for agents. Frankly, I think this report has a little something for everyone,
no matter where you find yourself with the AI jobs question. It shows that the quality of work is
advancing very quickly, but also that there are huge challenges in actually getting to a fully
economically viable product. And the space in between those two represents a lot of opportunity
for people, including the freelancers themselves, to redesign their economics, redesign their
deliverables, and figure out how to adapt to a changing landscape of opportunity. Indeed, one
important distinction that we talk about a lot here, but that is finally finding its way into the
broader discourse is the distinction between tasks and jobs. At a recent event run by the European
Central Bank, OpenAI's chief economist Ronnie Chatterjee said that he doesn't think AI will replace
human workers. He said, just because a task is exposed to AI doesn't mean it's going to substitute for
that. We need to think a lot harder about what jobs are, how they will evolve, and that will help us
give advice to people about labor market trends rather than being optimistic or pessimistic.
Chatterjee discussed his own profession in the way that economists have been on the list
for technological replacement for decades but are somehow still able to find work. He commented,
My dad was an economist also in 1985. His job was very exposed to the personal computer
when he first put one in his office. But instead of using a punch card in a big room in a
mainframe computer to run regressions, now he could run them on his computer. And it was a
compliment to his work over time that made him more productive. Chatterjee cited software developers
as the profession most in the firing line for AI replacement, but claim that we haven't seen a lot of
evidence thus far. He argued, those jobs shrinking as AI capabilities increased, that really hasn't
happened to the same extent people were predicting. Now, obviously, this is coming from an
open AI source, but as we've seen, that certainly doesn't guarantee an optimistic take.
Now, there is, of course, recently been a shift in this discourse, particularly from OpenAI,
not so much from Anthropic yet, where Sam Altman has basically come out and said that he was
wrong about the way that he thought AI was going to interact with jobs, much to his delight,
as he and OpenAI are now much more convinced that this is going to be an augmentation rather than a
replacement situation. Now, adding some messiness to this, there is still something clearly happening
in the sector's most exposed to AI work replacement in the U.S. According to the most recent labor
data, tech and finance are seeing the worst hiring outcomes. Payroll data from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics shows that these two sectors are now losing 28,000 jobs per month on average so far this year.
overall the year has seen a boost in hiring with 113,000 jobs added per month on average,
but if you exclude tech and finance, that figure would be much higher.
John Challenger, the head of private payroll data analytics firm Challenger Gray and Christmas,
blames AI disruption.
His firm is tracked over 100,000 job cut announcements this year and maintains that based on the
amount of times AI is mentioned, quote, it's certainly making an impact in a way that
no technology has before.
Now, of course, it remains quite difficult to separate actual AI replacement from the
useful narrative of AI replacement. In the tech sector, many still believe that AI is being used as a
cover story for inevitable mass layoffs who have more of their origins in overhiring back in 2022.
Pugé Shuriam, a senior U.S. economist at Barclay said, some of this could genuinely be
productivity replacing workers, but the narrative that keeps coming up is really a cost-cutting
exercise by a lot of firms, given the amount of investments they have committed towards AI.
Now, obviously, the politics of AI are getting more and more acute. And one interesting
recent story in the New York Times was about what China is doing around AI and jobs.
Now, one of my long-held thesis is that if we started to see significant job displacement from
AI, I think that one of the policies the United States would try, before moving to something
more dramatic like universal basic income, would be to provide incentives for firms to not
fire people. I don't know whether it would be carrot or stick type incentives, i.e. job cuts and
subsidies on the positive end, or fines and fees on the negative end. But basically the idea would be
for policy to create an incentive for organizations to keep people employed. Part of why I've been,
at least theoretically interested in some type of policy like that, is that while it is more
involvement in the private sector that I like for my government in general, is also my longstanding
belief that most companies are going to have to get through the efficiency phase of AI to get to the
opportunity phase of AI. In other words, they're going to have to go through all the cost-cutting
and efficiency gains to realize that the real opportunity of AI is in new opportunities. To the extent
that there were policies that incentivized firms to keep people employed, that might provide
an acceleration over to the opportunity side, because people have to figure out what to do
with all that excess labor that they don't theoretically need anymore to deliver on their current
product suite, leading potentially to some new thinking and new ideas. Now, according to this
New York Times report, China appears to be exploring policies that are somewhat in this vein. The Times
writes, The government is leaning heavily on companies to avoid layoffs, and those who don't
fall in line might find themselves in court. Indeed, the idea of AI as
augmenting people rather than replacing them, is increasingly a matter of legal precedent in China.
In April, the Times writes, a court ruled that a tech company had illegally laid off a worker after
replacing him with AI software. The Hongzhou Intermediate People's Court wrote,
The development of AI technology should be applied to liberating labor, promoting employment,
and improving people's livelihood. Labor laws allow employers to undertake technological changes
and upgrade their operations, but it should also take into account the protection of workers' legitimate
rights and interests. The United Times concludes,
just how this will work in practice and how far the government is actually prepared to go with
companies that don't comply remains to be seen. But what these rulings underscore is how much China is thinking
about the problem. Still, meanwhile, back here in the U.S., markets might be doing some of this work for us.
You're starting to see more and more stories of companies that were quick to fire based on AI,
or at least blame AI for their firings, reversing those decisions. Ford has recently made news for
their rehiring of what they call graybeard engineers. writes Bloomberg,
Ford Motor Company took an unusually human approach to fixing its stubborn quality problems.
It brought back what it calls gray-beard engineers to help train younger staff
and to reprogram the artificial intelligence tools that weren't getting the job done.
Over the last three years, Ford said it has hired 350 veteran engineers,
many of them former employees and others from suppliers,
to help address seemingly intractable quality woes that have cost the automaker billions.
The result? Ford is the top mainstream brand in the latest JD Power Initial Quality Survey,
said Charles Poon, Ford's vice president, Ford's VP of vehicle hardware engineering.
Artificial intelligence is a fantastic tool, but it's only as good as the information you use to train it.
Over prior years, we didn't pay as much attention as we should have to the experience of our most knowledgeable engineers
that have been with us through many product cycles.
And Poon actually went farther. He said,
mistakenly, we thought that just by introducing AI and ingesting the design requirements that we had
that we could produce a high-quality product.
But we recognize that for us to enhance some of our automation and machine learning and AI tools,
we needed to ensure that they were trained by the most experienced individuals.
Now, obviously, this is just one company,
but I do think it's a leading indicator of a narrative you're going to see more,
which is companies recalibrating a little bit where AI is going to sit in their overall labor stack.
Of course, one company is just an anecdote,
but the last report I wanted to cover today is based on a lot more data.
In a research collaboration with Ravellio Labs,
Ramp recently correlated firm-level AI spending against payroll data for 21,000 U.S. businesses.
The headline stat, they found that companies with high AI adoption were growing headcount at 10% on average
across the past two years, while companies with low AI adoption were basically flat. What's more,
the beginning of aggressive headcount growth sinks up to the beginning of the company's
AI adoption, suggesting a strong causative factor. And as to concerns about entry-level employment,
well, Ramp found that headcount growth was also stronger at the entry level, running at an
average of 12% compared to 10% overall. Now, Ramp's lead economist
Eric Heresian, made sure to point out that data can hide a lot of nuance and tell a lot of stories.
In sharing the results, he wrote, you should be skeptical.
Companies that adopt AI are already fast growing.
However, he pointed out that the study attempted to control for a lot of the obvious factors.
For example, the study attempted to match like-for-like firms with a control group that had an
adopted AI, hoping to ensure that Ramp wasn't just measuring the propensity of firms with high
existing growth to spend the money on AI adoption.
He also noted a prominent learning curve to firm-level AI adoption.
Headcount growth didn't begin until six to 12 months into AI adoption plans.
Now, importantly, while the study was looking at firms with AI adoption,
this is not primarily about the firms that are token-maxing and spending millions of dollars on AI.
Ramps threshold for high levels of AI adoption was fairly modest,
with companies spending an average of $30 per employee per month in the early phases.
AI spend did ramp up alongside headcount growth,
but Kerasian said it wasn't a dramatic cost well below $1,000 ahead.
As far as takeaways go, Kerasian thought that this was very good.
good news, especially for young people. He wrote, this is our first evidence that high AI adopting
firms are hiring different kinds of employees. We believe they are selecting for a new set of skills,
specifically people who know how to use AI and use it well. Entry-level workers, especially recent
graduates and college students, are a natural place to look. Ultimately, it is way too early to
know exactly how AI and jobs are going to play out. Still, any of you who are even a remotely regular
listener will know that I am extremely optimistic on this front, and I am encouraged to see not
only the narrative, but some of the numbers validate at least parts of that optimism.
One final set of numbers that I'll leave you with come from Box CEO, Aaron Levy, who wrote,
At Box, we recently did a survey of 1600 plus mid-in-large-sized companies, and the findings were
similar to ramps.
58% of respondents expected headcount to rise over the next three years.
That figure climbs to 79% among the most mature adopters of AI.
The more advanced AI adopters expected to grow their headcount at a greater rate in the future
than others.
In reality, he concludes, this is what actually you should expect to happen.
If a company can get more customers because they use AI in sales for a countermarket intelligence,
they hire more salespeople, not fewer.
If you can build way more software than before, you end up hiring more engineers because
the project get bigger and you take on more.
As always, my long-term optimism about this does not mean that I think there isn't going to
be important displacement that happens in the short term.
I think that there are categories of jobs that likely just get entirely wiped off the face of
the planet.
And I think that there are going to be vulnerable populations who have been.
built their entire careers around something that AI happens to do well, who are at a stage in their
career where just switching to something new isn't going to be exactly viable. But boy,
creating good policy to support very specific interventions around particular at-risk roles
and populations is a way different task than dealing with an AI job apocalypse.
Anyways, guys, that is going to do it for today's AI Daily Brief. Appreciate you listening or
watching, as always. And until next time, peace.
